UK Politics

Support trulyindependent journalismFind out moreCloseOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorRishi Sunak is on the verge of leading the Conservative Party to the worst defeat in its 346-year history, according to a new poll for The Independent.The Techne UK survey of 5,503 voters has given Labour a 19-point lead at 40 per cent – almost twice the Tories’ 21 per cent – with just one day of campaigning left to go.While the Conservatives have gained two points from late last week, and Labour dropped one with Reform UK also losing a point to 16 per cent, the narrowing of the polls appears to be too little, too late for Mr Sunak after a disastrous campaign.It comes as Rishi Sunak started a 48-hour tour in the battle bus on the campaign trail by stacking shelves at Morrisons, delivering a message that only 130,000 voters were needed to stop a Labour “supermajority”.However, according to Techne, he will only be able to rely on four in 10 Tory voters who supported Boris Johnson in the 2019 election, representing a collapse in support for the party. While Nigel Farage’s Reform has gone slightly backwards in this poll, the data reveals that the party has taken a quarter (25 per cent) of the previous election’s Tory vote, almost four times as many as Conservative supporters who switched to Labour (7 per cent).If this is how the election pans out, the Tories would be only the third largest party on 66 seats, behind the Lib Dems on 70, while Labour would have a majority of 284, according to Electoral Calculus. Reform would get a foothold in parliament with six seats.Techne chief executive Michela Morizzo warned that the poll contraction in favour of the Tories is “too little, too late”. She said: “Our last Westminster tracker poll of this general election campaign has been delivered with a very large sample audience of 5,503 potential electors. While there has over the last week to 10 days been a small contraction in the Labour lead, it is clear from our final pre-election poll that the Conservatives are heading for a defeat.“With ‘won’t vote’ hitting an all-time high of 26 per cent of the total electorate – an incredible 44 per cent won’t vote in the age group 18-34 years – I am absolutely sure we are heading towards a significant Labour majority and change of government. “The question is: how many Conservative voters will stay at home on Thursday? This time, more than ever, voters will decide on the route to the polling station and I feel a big uncertainty on the final results. It’s not a question about Labour, which will certainly win, but what Conservatives will do and the impact the results will have on the future of the party.”Sunak is set to lose badly to Starmer More

Support trulyindependent journalismFind out moreCloseOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorNigel Farage and Reform have made the biggest splash on social media of any political party or politician this election.The right-wing party and its leader have amassed more than 2.8 million reactions on Facebook since the start of the election, according to data analysed by Hootsuite, a social media analytics platform. Mr Farage’s official Facebook page alone has garnered 2.1 million reactions and shares, with the Reform page taking 719,000. This marks by far the largest Facebook interaction rate for any party or politician. By contrast, Rishi Sunak received just 270,000 Facebook reactions, while Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer attracted 300,000. The Labour Party page has garnered 269,000 reactions since 22 May, when the election was called, while the Conservatives have gained just 163,000. The two parties’ combined Facebook engagements are at just 60 per cent of Reform’sMr Farage also leads engagement on X (Twitter), with 13.9 million likes and retweets; while his videos have been viewed a combined 39.4 billion times on the platform during the election. Tweets from the Reform account are also the highest for party engagement, at 9.3 million interactions.However, the Labour Party’s videos on X – including endorsements from Elton John — are the second most popular during the campaign, garnering 11.4 billion views, or 13.2 billion if combined with Sir Keir’s account.This compares to 8.8 billion views for Mr Sunak and the Conservatives, 4.5 billion views for Reform alone, 4 billion views for the Green Party, and just 260.4 million views for Ed Davey and the Lib Dems. Meanwhile, Mr Sunak has the highest engagement on Instagram (2.6 million) since the election was called, due in part to his large following on the platform – 3.6 million followers.What does this tell us? Not much necessarily, other than the fact that Reform’s target audience is highly engaged on social media, particularly Facebook. It is also unclear how much this engagement will translate into material gains this week.Crucially, while the party may have an increasingly wide reach on social media, it lacks concentrated support in most constituencies; with latest polls estimating Reform could win five seats at best.But it is impossible to ignore that Mr Farage in particular has an online star-power which other politicians have failed to leverage, with even the prime minister making a tiny splash on social media in comparison. More

Support trulyindependent journalismFind out moreCloseOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorSir Keir Starmer has refused to guarantee any of his top team a job in his new cabinet as Labour appears to be closing in on victory.The Labour leader was pressed on the issue in his final broadcast interview with the BBC’s political editor Chris Mason as he toured the key battleground seats in the midlands.Mr Mason pressed Sir Keir: “People deserve to know who might be running some of the big aspects of the state come Friday, if you are to win. Will the senior figures in your shadow cabinet to take those respective roles in government if you do win?Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves (Stefan Rousseau/PA) More

Sunak on FarageSupport trulyindependent journalismFind out moreCloseOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorParties have begun a 48-hour blitz in constituencies across the country as they make their final appeals to voters ahead of polling day.Rishi Sunak began Tuesday visiting businesses in Oxfordshire, insisting predictions of a heavy Tory defeat were not going to stop him from continuing his fight to remain in No 10.Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer is campaigning across the Midlands. The Labour leader has urged Mr Sunak to meet Royal Mail bosses “in the next hour or two” to fix the ongoing postal vote chaos. It comes as Post Office minister Kevin Hollinrake announced the delays to postal vote delivery are being “urgently investigated” and criticised Royal Mail for failing to deliver ballot packs on time. But Royal Mail, who is also conducting sweeps of their delivery system on polling day, said there is “no backlog” and blamed stakeholders instead. Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney and SNP’s Westminster leader Stephen Flynn warned some Scots could be “disenfranchised” if their postal votes cannot be filled out and returned on time.Show latest update 1719931941Starmer refuses to name new Labour cabinet if he wins electionSir Keir Starmer has refused to name his cabinet if he wins the General Election on Thursday and speculated “plenty of constituencies” could come down to “just a few hundred votes”.The Labour leader told the BBC: “I’m not going to get ahead of myself and announce, say, cabinet or possible cabinet.”He added: “To do so two days before the election, to do so would to be complacent – and you would never expect a leader to do that.”( More

Support trulyindependent journalismFind out moreCloseOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorThe general election is only a few days away and the polls suggest Labour will be in a position to form a government on 5 July.As well as bringing a fresh intake of MPs, a Labour victory would mean a new cabinet running the country with Sir Keir Starmer. The cabinet is made up of about 20 senior ministers, each appointed by the prime minister and most with their own department.Although there may be minor changes, the cabinet is likely to be comprised in line with the current shadow cabinet.For the latest political updates, follow The Independent’s live coverageOn top of the standard £91,346 that all MPs receive, cabinet ministers can be paid up to £67,505 in addition. Senior ministers oversee departments and often other MPs holding junior minister positions.Here’s your guide to all the politicians that would be likely to make up the new cabinet if Labour secures victory on 5 July:Here’s all the likely cabinet ministers in a Labour government at a glance:Sir Keir Starmer, Prime MinisterAngela Rayner, Deputy Prime MinisterRachel Reeves, Chancellor of the ExchequerBridget Phillipson, Education SecretaryYvette Cooper, Home SecretaryWes Streeting, Health SecretaryEd Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net ZeroDavid Lammy, Foreign SecretaryPat McFadden, Chancellor of the Duchy of LancasterShabana Mahmood, Justice SecretaryJonathan Reynolds, Business SecretaryLiz Kendall, Work and Pensions SecretaryJohn Healey, Defence SecretaryLouise Haigh, Transport SecretaryThangam Debbonaire, Secretary of State for Culture, Media and SportAnneliese Dodds, Women and Equalities SecretarySteve Reed, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural AffairsPeter Kyle, Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and TechnologyHilary Benn, Northern Ireland SecretaryIan Murray, Scotland SecretaryJo Stevens, Wales Secretary More

Support trulyindependent journalismFind out moreCloseOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorClacton is expected to receive an official visit by a US president if Nigel Farage pulls off victory on Thursday and his friend Donald Trump retakes the White House in November, Reform campaigners have been told.With Mr Farage now the odds on favourite to win the seaside town against defending Tory MP Giles Watling his supporters are already beginning to look ahead to what will follow.With the election of an international celebrity politician, Reform campaigners in Clacton have been told that Trump will visit if he is reelected against an increasingly tired looking Joe Biden.Mr Trump’s love for golf may mean that Clacton Golf Club with its 18-hole links course, 10-acre practice field, putting and chipping areas and clubhouse with bar may need to prepare for an unusual guest.Nigel Farage has claimed former US president Donald Trump “learned quite a lot from me” More