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Polling shows Donald Trump’s ratings are poor – but they could be worse
It’s nearly eight months since Trump’s second term as United States president began. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is currently -7.4, with 51.6% disapproving and 44.2% approving.
Trump’s net approval was initially positive, but fell to -9.7 in late April, soon after the “liberation day” tariffs were announced. His net approval recovered to -3.6 in early June, but slid to a low of -10.3 in late July. Since a slight recovery from that position, his ratings have changed little.
Silver has ratings for presidents since Harry Truman (president from 1945–53), so Trump’s ratings can be compared against other presidents at this point in their terms. Trump’s ratings are only better than his own at this point in his first term, and he’s roughly even with Gerald Ford (president from 1974–77).
On issues, Trump is at net -3.8 on immigration, -14.4 on the economy, -15.9 on trade and -27.0 on inflation. There was a second successive weak US jobs report last Friday, but the benchmark US S&P 500 stock index rose to a new record high last night.
Until and unless something goes badly wrong with either the real US economy or the stock market, Trump’s ratings are likely to be sustained at about their current level.
Midterm elections for all of the US House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will occur in November 2026. In analyst G. Elliott Morris’ aggregate of the national generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 44.3–41.4. Democrats have led Republicans narrowly since April.
I covered a special election in a safe Democratic federal seat that Democrats retained with a swing in their favour today for The Poll Bludger. I also wrote about Republican gerrymandering in Texas and retaliatory Democratic gerrymandering in California, and electoral events in Norway and France.
Australian Morgan poll and further Resolve and DemosAU questions
A national Australian Morgan poll, conducted July 28 to August 24 from a sample of 5,001, gave Labor a 56.5–43.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the July Morgan poll.
Primary votes were 34% Labor (down 2.5), 30% Coalition (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 9% One Nation (up two) and 15% for all Others (up 1.5). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 55.5–44.5, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since July.
Labor’s two-party vote gender gap widened to 8.5 points from five points in July, with women giving Labor a 60.5–39.5 lead, while men gave them just a 52–48 lead.
The age gap also widened, with people aged under 50 swinging to Labor from July, while those aged over 50 swung to the Coalition. The Coalition gained a 50.5–49.5 lead with those aged 50–64 and extended its lead to 56.5–43.5 with those aged 65 and over.
In further questions from the August 11–16 Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that gave federal Labor a 59–41 lead, 28% wanted to keep the current 43% emissions reduction target by 2030, 17% wanted a more ambitious target, 12% wanted the 2030 target rejected or reduced and to just concentrate on net zero by 2050, and 17% wanted to reject all current emissions targets.
In a national DemosAU poll, conducted July 31 from a sample of 1,079, 56% supported the ban on YouTube for children under 16 while 29% were opposed. Among parents of children under 16, support was 59–34. By 55–32, parents said they wouldn’t help their children circumvent the ban.
By 45–33, respondents supported the government’s proposal to increase the tax rate on superannuation earnings for balances over $3 million. By 57–22, they did not believe the changes would lead to them personally paying more tax.
Essential poll
In a national Essential poll, conducted August 20–24 from a sample of 1,034, Anthony Albanese’s net approval was down three points since July to +6, with 49% approving and 43% disapproving. Sussan Ley’s net approval was unchanged at -2.
On the economy, 43% (down nine since January) thought it would stay the same in the next six months, 35% (up six) get worse and 22% (up three) improve. Labor was trusted to manage the economy overall by 41–28 over the Coalition. Economic management is normally a strength for the Coalition.
On regulation, 29% thought there was too much, 21% not enough and 49% about the right amount. But 54% said there was not enough regulation of AI and 44–48% said the same of social media, big businesses and childcare.
By 34–30, respondents supported Australia recognising Palestine. By 50–24, they supported the introduction of a four-day working week.
In questions asked only of the Victorian sample of 518, Labor Premier Jacinta Allan had a net approval of -15, with 51% disapproving and 36% approving. Liberal leader Brad Battin had a net approval of +5.
Bradfield court challenge update
In July the Liberals challenged their 26-vote loss to Teal Nicolette Boele in Bradfield at the federal election to the High Court, acting as the Court of Disputed Returns. The High Court referred this case to the federal court.
The Guardian said that on August 22 the court had given lawyers for the Liberals and Boele three days each to examine 792 disputed ballot papers. A final list of ballot papers that are disputed by the Liberals and Boele will need to be submitted by September 25. There will be a one-day hearing on October 2.
Tasmanian EMRS poll gives Liberals big lead
A Tasmanian EMRS poll, conducted August 25–28 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 38% of the vote (down two from the July 19 election), Labor 24% (down two), the Greens 13% (down one), independents 19% (up four) and others 6% (up one). Tasmania uses a proportional system, so a two-party estimate is not applicable.
Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff’s net favourable surged 12 points since May to +18, while new Labor leader Josh Willie recorded an initial net +4 favourable. Rockliff led Willie by 50–24 as preferred premier.
NSW Kiama byelection
A byelection for the New South Wales state seat of Kiama will occur on Saturday after the resignation of independent MP Gareth Ward, a convicted felon. ABC election analyst Antony Green said there are 13 candidates for the byelection, including Labor and Liberal candidates. Labor is the favourite to win. More
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Lisa Cook to remain at Federal Reserve while fighting Trump’s attempt to fire her, judge rules
A federal judge has ruled that Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook can stay in her post while suing Donald Trump over his unprecedented bid to fire her.Cook is legally challenging the US president after he sought to remove her, citing unconfirmed allegations of mortgage fraud, amid an extraordinary campaign by his administration to strengthen its control over the US central bank.She asked US district judge Jia Cobb to impose a temporary restraining order against Trump’s attempt to “immediately” dismiss her, pending further litigation. The administration has argued that Trump is able to fire Fed governors “for cause” and appoint replacements.Trump has spent months attacking the Fed, where most policymakers – including Cook – have so far defied his calls for interest rate cuts. He has spoken of rapidly building “a majority” on the central bank’s board, calling into question the future of its longstanding independence from political oversight.Trump moved to fire Cook after one of his allies, Bill Pulte, whom he tapped to lead the US Federal Housing Finance Agency, alleged she had claimed two different properties as primary residences when obtaining mortgages in 2021.“How can this woman be in charge of interest rates if she is allegedly lying to help her own interest rates?” Pulte wrote on X. He referred the case to the Department of Justice for investigation.After Cook declined to resign, Trump tried to remove her from the Fed’s board. The justice department is now looking into the allegations of mortgage fraud.In a court filing, Cook’s attorneys insisted she “did not ever commit mortgage fraud” as they outlined their case.Multiple federal agencies were provided details of Cook’s mortgage arrangements when she was first nominated, by Joe Biden, to join the Fed’s board in 2022, according to her representatives. “The Government has long known about the alleged facial inconsistencies in Governor Cook’s financial documents,” the filing said.On one background check form, for example, Cook said that she had listed one property in Michigan as a primary residence and another in Georgia as a second home.On a separate questionnaire, she listed both homes as her “present” residence; the Michigan property as her “current permanent residence”; and a third property, in Massachusetts, as both a present residence, but also a second home and rental property, she said. More
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US supreme court to decide on legality of Trump’s sweeping global tariffs
The US supreme court agreed on Tuesday to decide the legality of Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, setting up a major test of one of the Republican president’s boldest assertions of executive power that has been central to his economic and trade agenda.The justices took up the justice department’s appeal of a lower court’s ruling that Trump overstepped his authority in imposing most of his tariffs under a federal law meant for emergencies. The court swiftly acted after the administration last week asked it to review the case, which involves trillions of dollars in customs duties over the next decade.The court, which begins its next nine-month term on 6 October, placed the case on a fast track, scheduling oral arguments for the first week of November.The justices also agreed to hear a separate challenge to Trump’s tariffs brought by a family-owned toy company, Learning Resources.The US court of appeals for the federal circuit in Washington ruled on 29 August that Trump overreached in invoking a 1977 law known as the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose the tariffs, undercutting a major priority for the president in his second term. The tariffs, however, remain in effect during the appeal to the supreme court.The levies are part of a trade war instigated by Trump since he returned to the presidency in January that has alienated trading partners, increased volatility in financial markets and fueled global economic uncertainty.Trump has made tariffs a key foreign policy tool, using them to renegotiate trade deals, extract concessions and exert political pressure on other countries.Trump in April invoked the 1977 law in imposing tariffs on goods imported from individual countries to address trade deficits, as well as separate tariffs announced in February as economic leverage on China, Canada and Mexico to curb the trafficking of fentanyl and illicit drugs into the US.The law gives the president power to deal with “an unusual and extraordinary threat” amid a national emergency. It historically had been used for imposing sanctions on enemies or freezing their assets. Prior to Trump, the law had never been used to impose tariffs.Trump’s Department of Justice has argued that the law allows tariffs under emergency provisions that authorize a president to “regulate” imports.
“The stakes in this case could not be higher,” the justice department said in a filing. Denying Trump‘s tariff power “would expose our nation to trade retaliation without effective defenses and thrust America back to the brink of economic catastrophe”, it added.Trump has said that if he loses the case the US might have to unwind trade deals, causing the country to “suffer so greatly”.The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office reported in August that the increased duties on imports from foreign countries could reduce the US national deficit by $4tn over the next decade. More - in US Politics
Israeli-Russian graduate student freed after 903 days in Hezbollah captivity
Israeli-Russian academic and Princeton student Elizabeth Tsurkov has been released after being kidnapped by Kata’ib Hezbollah and spending more than two years in captivity, Donald Trump said in a post on social media.“I am pleased to report that Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Princeton Student, whose sister is an American Citizen, was just released by Kata’ib Hezbollah (MILITANT Hezbollah), and is now safely in the American Embassy in Iraq after being tortured for many months. I will always fight for JUSTICE, and never give up. HAMAS, RELEASE THE HOSTAGES, NOW!” the US president wrote in a TruthSocial post on Tuesday.Tsurkov went missing for months in Iraq in early 2023 and was confirmed alive in July 2023. She holds Israeli and Russian passports and entered Iraq using her Russian passport, according to the Israeli government, to do academic research on behalf of Princeton.Israel said she was abducted in Baghdad by pro-Iranian militants in March 2023. A video featuring Tsurkov was broadcast on Iraqi television in November of that year. The circumstances of her release were not immediately clear. Press reports from May of this year indicated the US and Iraq were in talks on her release with Iraq.After Trump announced Tsurkov’s release on Tuesday, her sister Emma Tsurkov – who has long been a vocal advocate for her sibling’s freedom – wrote on X:“My entire family is incredibly happy. We cannot wait to see Elizabeth and give her all the love we have been waiting to share for 903 days. We are so thankful to President Trump and his Special Envoy, Adam Boehler. If Adam had not made my sister’s return his personal mission, I do not know where we would be. We also want to thank Josh Harris and his team at the US Embassy in Baghdad for the support they provided to our sister and the team at the nonprofit Global Reach who advocated relentlessly for my sister’s safe return.” More
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Trump calls release of suggestive note to convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein a ‘dead issue’
White House officials on Tuesday doubled down on their assertion that a sexually suggestive letter carrying what appeared to be Donald Trump’s signature that was included in a birthday book for convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein had not been signed by the president.The letter, and its drawing of a naked woman’s torso around an imagined conversation between Trump and Epstein, was part of a batch of documents released by the House oversight committee in response to a subpoena after its existence was first reported in July by the Wall Street Journal.The release of the letter and the entirety of the birthday book only intensified a furore that Trump has been attempting to shut down for months – and hardened the White House’s resolve to claim the purported Trump signature on the letter was a fabrication or a forgery.At a press briefing, Trump’s press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, denied Trump’s involvement in the letter and added that the White House would support an expert review of the signature to determine whether it had been done by Trump’s hand.“Three separate signature analysts who said this was not the president’s authentic signature and we have maintained that all along. The president did not write this letter, he did not sign this letter, and that’s why the president’s external legal team is pursuing litigation against the Wall Street Journal,” Leavitt said.View image in fullscreenMultiple White House officials have sought to distance Trump from the 2003 note since it was released on Monday by suggesting the signature did not resemble recent examples showing Trump, in recent years, signing both his first and last name in sharp, angular figures.But officials have declined to address the fact that before his time in office, Trump regularly used only his first name in signatures, stylized with a line extending from the last letter – and Trump’s signature on a letter from 1995 closely resembled the one found on the note to Epstein.Earlier on Monday, Trump declined to address the letter in an interview with NBC. “I don’t comment on something that’s a dead issue,” Trump said.At the briefing that gave rise to questions concerning Epstein and the Trump letter on several separate occasions, Leavitt also denied a claim by Republican House speaker Mike Johnson that Trump had been an FBI informant against Epstein.“I can affirm that is not true and I think the speaker was referring to the fact that President Trump kicked Jeffrey Epstein out of his Mar-a-Lago property for reasons the president has already discussed,” Leavitt said.With the clamor over the Epstein files reignited on Capitol Hill following the release of the Epstein birthday book and other materials turned over to Congress by the lawyers for Epstein’s estate, the White House may yet face pressure to release the extent of the documents held by the justice department on the matter.Despite staunch opposition from the White House and Republican leaders, a bipartisan resolution directing the justice department to release all of its investigative files on Epstein appears headed to gain enough backers to force action on the House floor, provided two Democrats win special elections later this month.Over on Capitol Hill, top Republicans have joined the White House in alleging that it is not actually Donald Trump’s signature on a suggestive poem and drawing addressed to Jeffrey Epstein that was made public yesterday.“The White House says it’s not true,” House speaker Mike Johnson told PBS News, adding that he has not seen the artwork from Epstein’s birthday book, which was released by Democrats on the House oversight committee.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe Republican chair of the oversight committee, James Comer, who has been leading an investigation into Epstein and the justice department’s handling of allegations of sex trafficking against Epstein, said he did not plan to investigate the veracity of Trump’s signature on the document.“Twenty-two years ago was when that was allegedly sent. So, I don’t think the oversight committee is going to invest in looking up something that was 22 years ago,” Comer told CNN.Republican representative and oversight committee member Tim Burchett also doubted that Trump had made the drawing and signed it – even though Trump has a history of making sketches in thick black pen.“I’ve never known Trump to be much of an artist,” he told CNN, adding that it was “so easy” to forge a signature.The extent of any additional exposure for Trump is unclear. A lawyer for Epstein’s estate told CNN that they would turn over additional materials to the committee “on a rolling basis” in response to the subpoena, while the justice department is expected to produce more records of its own.Survivors have slammed the Trump administration’s promise to investigate Epstein further, with nine attorneys telling the Guardian they have not even been contacted by the justice department, suggesting it is merely interested in “whitewashing” previous investigations.Maga influencers largely dismissed the release of the birthday book, claiming Trump’s signature in it was a forgery, despite what other publications have noted is the clear resemblance to Trump’s signature at the time.Trump has repeatedly dismissed concerns about the wider collection of Epstein files, referring to it in general terms as a “Democrat hoax” despite having campaigned in 2024 on releasing the same Epstein files. After he took office in January, Trump’s department of justice declared that no “client list” linking powerful individuals to Epstein’s crimes existed. More
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Michigan judge dismisses charges against 15 of Trump’s 2020 fake electors
A judge in Michigan dismissed the felony charges against a slate of electors who falsely signed on to documents claiming Donald Trump won the 2020 election in the latest blow to efforts to hold the president and his allies accountable for attempting to overturn the results of the White House race he lost to Joe Biden.Sixteen people were initially charged with eight felonies each related to forgery and conspiracy by the Democratic attorney general, Dana Nessel, in 2023, though one of them had his charges dropped after he agreed to cooperate with the prosecution. The fake electors in Michigan will not go to trial.District court judge Kristen Simmons decided that the state had not provided “evidence sufficient to prove intent”, a requirement for fraud cases. She told a courtroom on Tuesday that the case did not involve the intent of those who orchestrated the scheme, like Kenneth Chesebro and other Trump attorneys – but those who actually signed the documents, Votebeat reported.“I believe they were executing their constitutional right to seek redress,” Simmons said of those who signed the documents.Nessel spoke against the decision in a press conference after, according to Michigan Advance. “The evidence was clear,” she said. “They lied. They knew they lied, and they tried to steal the votes of millions of Michiganders. And if they can get away with this, well, what can’t they get away with next?”Trump supporters in seven swing states signed on as fake electors in the scheme. Some of the fake electors – and, in some cases, those who orchestrated the scheme – were charged for state crimes in five of those states.Protesters outside the courtroom called the case an example of “lawfare” and a “hoax”. After the judge’s comments, those charged and their supporters celebrated the decision and called for consequences against Nessel for bringing the case.An attorney for the former Michigan Republican party co-chairperson Meshawn Maddock said the case was a “malicious prosecution” and that “there needs to be major consequences for the people who brought this,” according to the Associated Press.Some of those who signed on as fake electors in 2020 went on to be real presidential electors for Trump in the 2024 election, when he defeated Kamala Harris to return to the Oval Office beginning in January. More
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What is the truth about Trump and Epstein? The story keeps getting murkier … | Arwa Mahdawi
You have to keep this hush-hush, OK? I have top-secret information to share. You know Donald Trump has been reluctant to release the Epstein files? Well, it’s not because there’s anything nefarious going on. Trump may be an adjudicated sexual predator accused of sexual misconduct by at least 27 women (all of which he denies), who publicly boasted in 2002 about how his “terrific” pal Jeffrey Epstein liked women “on the younger side”, but you shouldn’t read too much into all that. Nor should you overanalyse a Wall Street Journal report claiming White House officials told Trump in May that his name appeared multiple times in the files. Or that House Democrats have now released a sexually suggestive letter and drawing sent to Epstein in 2003 for his birthday that appears to show Trump’s signature, the same note the president has denied writing. Nor should you worry yourself with the photo that has been released showing Epstein holding a novelty check signed by Trump with the suggestion that Epstein “sold” him a woman for $22,500.No, the real reason Trump is being weird about Epstein is … drum roll, please … because the president may or may not have been covertly operating as an FBI informant and investigating the disgraced financier.To be clear: I did not learn this information by scrolling conspiracy theory subreddits at 3am. It comes via the highest levels of government. Last week, the House speaker, Mike Johnson, told a CNN reporter that the president cares deeply about justice for Epstein’s accusers. In fact, when Trump first heard “the rumour” about Epstein, he “kicked him out of Mar-a-Lago; he was an FBI informant to try and take this stuff down”.Why would Johnson make such an explosive and weird claim? Is it because he reckons Maga supporters, some of whom are angry about the president’s handling of the Epstein files, are gullible? With conspiratorial thinking on the rise, is he playing into a proclivity among certain voters to flip Occam’s razor and believe in the most complex explanation? (Macco’s razor, if you will.)Honestly, I don’t know what Johnson was thinking. Nor does anyone else; even the Trump administration was reportedly perplexed by the claim. And on Sunday, Johnson’s office delicately walked back his assertion in a statement: “The speaker is reiterating what the victims’ attorney said, which is that Donald Trump – who kicked Epstein out of Mar-a-Lago – was the only one more than a decade ago willing to help prosecutors expose Epstein for being a disgusting child predator.”The attorney referenced is Brad Edwards, who represents a number of Epstein survivors and said last week that Trump was “friendly” to the cause before doing an “about-face”. As per the Washington Post, Trump “helped” Edwards with efforts against Epstein in 2009. Not quite the same as being an FBI informant.To give Trump his due, he did, as Johnson claimed, bar Epstein from Mar-a-Lago. This reportedly happened in 2007, after the latter behaved inappropriately towards a club member’s teenage daughter. And he doesn’t appear to have been friendly with the paedophile after his sex crime conviction in 2008 – unlike Bill Gates, who met Epstein multiple times after that.Epstein and Trump were good friends for at least 15 years, but there’s little record of them interacting after 2004. Rather than Trump’s concern for abused girls causing the falling out, it seems a bidding war over a Palm Beach mansion may have been to blame. In July, Trump also said he rowed with Epstein because the financier “stole” young women who worked for his Mar-a-Lago spa. The president seemed rather more upset about his “property” being taken than the safety of the women Epstein “stole”.Whatever happened between the pair, questions about their relationship are not going away. The White House is saying the suggestive birthday note is FAKE NEWS and part of a “Democrat hoax” – but is that landing with Maga supporters? Maybe it’s time for Team Trump to sit down and workshop some better deflections. Perhaps blame the brouhaha on an extraterrestrial plot or Hillary Clinton’s emails; anything to stop people from coming to the simplest possible explanation for why Trump wants to bury this story. “Enigma’s never age,” a line on Trump’s supposed birthday note reads. But this Epstein enigma is ageing like raw milk. If only it would sour voters on Trump. More
