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      Trump administration briefing: hundreds fired from US climate agency as Americans feel economy getting worse

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      The Trump administration has fired hundreds of workers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), the US’s pre-eminent climate research agency housed within the Department of Commerce, the Guardian learned on Thursday.“This will cost American lives,” said Democratic congresswoman and ranking member of the House science, space and technology committee, Zoe Lofgren, in a written statement. Her comments were issued alongside congressman Gabe Amo’s, the ranking member of the subcommittee on environment, after news of the firings broke.“By firing essential staff who work tirelessly on behalf of the American people, President Trump and Elon Musk are playing politics with our national security and public safety,” Amo said. “Leaving Noaa understaffed will inevitably lead to additional chaos and confusion – I call on them to rehire these public servants immediately before preventable tragedy strikes.”Trump fires hundreds at US climate agency NoaaOn Thursday afternoon, the US commerce department sent emails to Noaa employees saying their jobs would be cut off at the end of the day. Other government agencies have also seen huge staffing cuts in recent days.The firings specifically affected probationary employees, a categorization that applies to new hires or those moved or promoted into new positions, and which makes up roughly 10% of the agency’s workforce.“The majority of probationary employees in my office have been with the agency for 10+ years and just got new positions,” said one worker who still had their job, and who spoke to the Guardian under the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal. “If we lose them, we’re losing not just the world-class work they do day to day but also decades of expertise and institutional knowledge.”Read the full storyTrump vows additional 10% tariff on China in trade war escalationDonald Trump has threatened China with an additional 10% tariff on its exports to the US, setting the stage for another significant escalation in his trade war with Beijing. The US president also claimed that he plans to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting next Tuesday, having delayed their imposition last month after talks with his counterparts.Read the full storyTrump says Putin would keep his word on a Ukraine peace dealDonald Trump has insisted that Vladimir Putin would “keep his word” on a peace deal for Ukraine, arguing that US workers extracting critical minerals in the country would act as a security backstop to deter Russia from invading again.During highly anticipated talks at the White House with the prime minister, Keir Starmer, the US president said that Putin could be trusted not to breach any agreement, which could aim to return as much of the land as possible to Ukraine that was seized by Russia during the brutal three-year conflict.Read the full storyWhite House demands agencies identify hundreds of thousands of potential layoffsThe Trump administration is pushing for federal agencies to carry out a large-scale slashing of the federal workforce, demanding plans for hundreds of thousands of possible cuts within weeks. A White House memo gave officials until 13 March to submit a plan identifying “agency components and employees performing functions not mandated by statute or regulation who are not typically designated as essential” during government shutdowns.Read the full storyCanceled meeting on flu shots fuels anti-vax concernsThe Trump administration has cancelled a meeting of scientific experts called to discuss next winter’s flu shots in a move that has underscored fears of emerging anti-vaccine polices under the new health secretary, Robert F Kennedy Jr.Read the full storyMexico releases 29 high-level organized crime operatives into US custodyMexico has extradited 29 high-level organised crime operatives to the US, as it faces intense pressure from the Trump administration to show that it is tackling fentanyl trafficking.The extraditions come as Mexico tries to convince the US to postpone 25% tariffs on all Mexican imports. Donald Trump has tied the tariffs to results on fentanyl trafficking and migration, without setting any specific targets.Read the full storyJudge temporarily blocks Trump’s mass firings at federal agenciesA federal judge in California has temporarily blocked the Trump administration from ordering the US defense department and other agencies to carry out the mass firings of some employees.Read the full storyFunding cut for program fighting HIV/AidsThe Trump administration has terminated its funding of the joint United Nations program on HIV/Aids, known as UNAids, delivering another devastating blow to the global fight against the disease.Read the full storyEducator coalition sues to block Trump anti-diversity ordersA coalition of educators has filed a lawsuit to block the US Department of Education from enforcing new Donald Trump-imposed civil rights guidelines that target a range of practices related to diversity, equity and inclusion.Read the full storyMajority of Americans believe economy getting worseExclusive: The majority of Americans believe the economy is getting worse rather than better, even as Republican views on the nation’s finances have performed a dramatic backflip since Donald Trump’s re-election, according to a poll conducted for the Guardian.Read the full storyWhat else happened today:

      The Trump administration has taken down the online application form for several popular student debt repayment plans, causing confusion among borrowers and likely creating complications for millions of Americans with outstanding loans.

      The Social Security Administration is expected to lay off at least 7,000 people from its workforce of 60,000, the Associated Press reported. The workforce reduction could be as high as 50%, according to a person who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Those seeking payment plans are unable to access the applications for income-driven repayment plans (IDRs), which cap what borrowers must pay each month at a percent of their earnings, as well as the online application to consolidate their loans on the US Department of Education website.

      Senator Ron Wyden, a Democrat of Oregon and the top Democrat on the Senate finance committee warned that Trump’s tariffs threats are “driving the US economy straight into a wall”.

      Democrats on the Senate foreign relations committee slammed the Trump administration over a decision to eliminate as much as 90% of USAid’s foreign aid contracts. “It is clear that the Trump Administration’s foreign assistance ‘review’ was not a serious effort or attempt at reform but rather a pretext to dismantle decades of US investment that makes America safer, stronger and more prosperous,” the Democrats said in a joint statement. More

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      Judge temporarily blocks Trump’s mass firings at federal agencies

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      A federal judge in California has temporarily blocked the Trump administration from ordering the US defense department and other agencies to carry out the mass firings of some employees.The US district judge William Alsup said in San Francisco on Thursday that the US office of personnel management (OPM) lacked the power to order federal agencies to fire any workers, including probationary employees who typically have less than a year of experience.Alsup ordered the OPM, the human resources department for federal agencies, to rescind a 20 January and a 14 February email directing agencies to identify probationary employees who should be fired.Alsup said he could not order the defense department itself, which is expected to fire 5,400 probationary employees on Friday, and other agencies not to terminate workers because they are not defendants in the lawsuit brought by several unions and non-profit groups.But he suggested that the mass firings of federal workers that began two weeks ago would cause widespread harm, including cuts to national parks, scientific research and services for veterans.“Probationary employees are the lifeblood of our government. They come in at a low level and work their way up. That’s how we renew ourselves,” said Alsup, a Bill Clinton appointee.Alsup handed down the order in a case brought by labor unions and non-profits filed last week.The complaint filed by five labor unions and five non-profit organizations is among multiple lawsuits pushing back on the administration’s efforts to vastly shrink the federal workforce.Thousands of probationary employees have already been fired. Just on Thursday, hundreds of workers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), the US’s pre-eminent climate research agency, learned they had lost their jobs.The plaintiffs say the OPM had no authority to terminate the jobs of probationary workers who generally have less than a year on the job. They also say the firings were predicated on a lie of poor performance by the workers.The Trump administration has maintained that the memo and email from the OPM merely asked agencies to review their probationary workforces and decide who could potentially be terminated, and did not require them to do anything.“An order is not usually phrased as a request,” Kelsey Helland of the US Department of Justice told Alsup during the hearing.But the judge said it was unlikely that virtually every federal agency independently decided to decimate its staff.“How could that all happen with each agency deciding on its own to do something so aberrational? I don’t believe it,” Alsup said.There are an estimated 200,000 probationary workers – generally employees who have less than a year on the job – across federal agencies. About 15,000 are employed in California, providing services ranging from fire prevention to veterans’ care, the complaint says. More

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      Trump administration quietly shutters online form for student debt repayment

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      The Donald Trump administration has taken down the online application form for several popular student debt repayment plans, causing confusion among borrowers and likely creating complications for millions of Americans with outstanding loans.Those seeking payment plans are unable to access the applications for income-driven repayment plans (IDR), which cap what borrowers must pay each month at a percent of their earnings, as well as the online application to consolidate their loans on the US Department of Education website.The quiet removal came after a federal appeals court decision earlier this week that continued a pause on Joe Biden’s Save program, an income-driven plan for loan forgiveness that would have forgiven debts after as few as 10 years of payments.Biden’s Save program has been on hold since last summer after a group of Republican state attorneys general brought forward a lawsuit against the forgiveness features. As a result, about 8 million borrowers who enrolled in Save before it was halted currently have their loans in limbo as the litigation is ongoing.It is currently unclear how borrowers who were already enrolled in income-driven plans are supposed to submit their annual paperwork to certify their incomes. It is also uncertain when or if the payment plan applications will be back up on the website.The continued setbacks in the path towards student loan forgiveness has caused concern among those with debt, and loan forgiveness activists. Critics also point out that removing payment plan options was not a part of the previous litigation.There is also criticism towards the DoE’s decision to quietly remove the applications rather than announcing it, with the department opting instead to post a banner on StudentAid.gov.The Student Borrower Protection Center (SBPC), a non-profit dedicated to eliminating student debt in the US, released a statement in response to the sudden removal.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“Shutting down access to all income-based repayment plans is not what the 8th Circuit ordered—this was a choice by the Trump Administration and a cruel one that will inflict massive pain on millions of working families,” the statement says.It goes on to say: “President Trump campaigned on lower costs, but once again has chosen a path that will ensure the greatest possible harm to the monthly budgets of everyday working families.” More

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      Social Security Administration could layoff up to 50% of its workforce, source says – live

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      The Social Security Administration is expected to lay off at least 7,000 people from its workforce of 60,000, the Associated Press reported.The workforce reduction could be as high as 50%, according to a person who spoke on the condition of anonymity. It’s unclear how the layoffs will directly impact benefits of the 72.5 million Social Security beneficiaries, which include retirees and children who receive retirement and disability benefits.Advocates and Democratic lawmakers warn that layoffs will reduce the agency’s ability to serve recipients in a timely manner.King Charles invites Donald Trump for unprecedented second state visit to UKKing Charles has invited Donald Trump to make an unprecedented second state visit to the UK in a letter handed to the US president by Keir Starmer.Queen Elizabeth II hosted Trump on a state visit in 2019. Precedent for second-term US presidents who have already made a state visit is usually tea or lunch with the monarch at Windsor Castle, as was the case for George W Bush and Barack Obama.Trump received the invitation during a meeting at the White House on Thursday, with Starmer presenting the letter from the king.In the letter, which Trump showed to the cameras in the Oval Office, Charles suggested he and Trump could meet beforehand at Dumfries House or Balmoral, which are near Trump’s golf courses in Scotland, to discuss the plans for the much grander visit.The letter, partially obscured by Trump’s hand, read: “I can only say that it would be … pleasure to extend that invitation once again, in the hope that you … some stage be visiting Turnberry and a detour to a relatively near neighbour might not cause you too much inconvenience. An alternative might perhaps be for you to visit Balmoral.“There is much on both estates which I think you might find interesting, and enjoy – particularly as my foundation at Dumfries House provides hospitality skills-training for young people who often end up as staff on your own establishments!”The letter continued: “Quite apart from this presenting an opportunity to discuss a wide range of issues of mutual interest, it would also offer a valuable chance to plan a historic second state visit to the United Kingdom.“As you will know this is unprecedented by a US President. That is why I would find it helpful for us to be able to discuss, together, a range of options for location and programme content.Read the full story:The Social Security Administration is expected to lay off at least 7,000 people from its workforce of 60,000, the Associated Press reported.The workforce reduction could be as high as 50%, according to a person who spoke on the condition of anonymity. It’s unclear how the layoffs will directly impact benefits of the 72.5 million Social Security beneficiaries, which include retirees and children who receive retirement and disability benefits.Advocates and Democratic lawmakers warn that layoffs will reduce the agency’s ability to serve recipients in a timely manner.A federal judge has ordered Trump administration officials involved in Elon Musk’s “opaque” department of government efficiency (Doge) to testify under oath in a lawsuit regarding the agency’s access to sensitive government databases.US District Judge John Bates ruled on Thursday that limited questioning of officials connected to Doge could help clarify the group’s activities and assess whether it poses the data security risks that government employees have raised concerns about.The judge’s order allows unions and liberal groups suing the agency to depose four officials: one from Doge’s White House headquarters and one each from the labor department, the Department of Health and Human Services and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.Doge’s aggressive push to streamline bureaucracy has triggered over a dozen lawsuits, and this order marks the first time that people involved in the project will be required to answer questions from lawyers outside the government.Here’s where the day stands so far:

      Donald Trump suggested Vladimir Putin can be trusted in the peace talks with Ukraine because “we had to go through the Russian hoax together”. “I’ve known him for a long time now, and I don’t believe he’s going to violate his word,” Trump said during his Oval Office meeting with Keir Starmer, the UK prime minister. For more updates from Trump’s press conference with Starmer, follow the UK politics live blog.

      Trump announced he would move forward with imposing 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada next week, after he initially delayed that policy by one month. In a post on Truth Social, Trump blamed Mexico and Canada for allowing illegal drugs to flow into the US, writing: “We cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA, and therefore, until it stops, or is seriously limited, the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled.”

      The top Democrat on the Senate finance committee warned that Trump’s tariffs threats are “driving the US economy straight into a wall”. “Slapping tariffs on everything Americans buy from Canada, Mexico, and China will mean higher prices on groceries, gas and cars, with fewer jobs and lower pay when our closest trading partners respond to Trump’s trade war by buying fewer American products,” senator Ron Wyden, a Democrat of Oregon, said in a statement.

      Democrats on the Senate foreign relations committee slammed the Trump administration over a decision to eliminate as much as 90% of USAid’s foreign aid contracts. “It is clear that the Trump Administration’s foreign assistance ‘review’ was not a serious effort or attempt at reform but rather a pretext to dismantle decades of US investment that makes America safer, stronger and more prosperous,” the Democrats said in a joint statement.
      The blog will have more coming up, so stay tuned.Senator Ruben Gallego, a freshman Democrat of Arizona, has introduced a resolution condemning the Trump administration’s rejection of a United Nations resolution denouncing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.On Monday, the US joined Russia, Belarus and North Korea in voting against the EU-Ukrainian resolution, which was intrdouced to coincide with the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.“Let’s be clear on this: this is a war that Russia started. Ukraine did not ask for it. They did not ask to go to war with a nuclear superpower, and they did not ask for their cities to be reduced to rubble,” Gallego said in a speech today on the Senate floor.“They didn’t ask for their children to be displaced and families to be torn apart. If Ukraine had its way, this war would have ended years ago.”He warned that the US position on the UN resolution “puts us on the same side as Russia and North Korea,” adding, “That’s not just embarrassing, it is dangerous.”Donald Trump made some eyebrow-raising comments about Russia during his Oval Office meeting with Keir Starmer, the UK prime minister, just a few moments ago.Trump suggested that Vladimir Putin could be trusted to follow through on the terms of any peace agreement signed with Ukraine, saying he expected the Russian leader to “keep his word”.“I’ve spoken to him. I’ve known him for a long time now,” Trump said.“You know we had to go through the Russian hoax together [the claim that Russia colluded with Trump to rig the 2016 election]. That was not a good thing …“I’ve known him for a long time now, and I don’t believe he’s going to violate his word.”For more updates and analysis from Trump’s press conference with Starmer, which is expected to get underway soon, follow the Guardian’s UK politics live blog:Kash Patel, the controversial new FBI director, has proposed teaming up with the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) as a way to improve agents’ physical fitness, ABC News reported.Patel reportedly floated the potential collaboration on teleconference Wednesday with the heads of the FBI’s 55 field offices. Dana White, the CEO and founder of the mixed-martial arts entertainment company, is a prominent Trump supporter and major booster of his re-election campaign.Kash’s appointment has rattled the agency, amid widespread concern that he would use the historically independent bureau to pursue Trump’s political opponents – something he declined to rule out in his confirmation hearing.Asked about self-styled “misogynist influencer” Andrew Tate and his brother, Tristan, flying to the US, reportedly after the US urged Romania to lift the travel ban that was preventing them from leaving the country, Trump said he “doesn’t know anything about it”.The pair, who are charged with human trafficking in Romania, arrived in Florida from Romania on Thursday by private jet, after prosecutors suspended their travel ban and a court lifted a precautionary seizure on some of their assets. The brothers, are staunch Trump supporters.On Thursday, Ron DeSantis, the state’s Republican governor, said: “Florida is not a place where you’re welcome with that type of conduct in the air.”The Tate brothers were arrested in Romania in 2022 and face trial on charges of rape, sex with a minor, people trafficking and money laundering.Attending the anti-war protest in solidarity with Barnard and Columbia students is Raymond Lotta, a spokesperson for Revolutionary Books in Harlem.“We are here specifically today because we are standing in solidarity with the students here at Barona and Columbia who are being punished severely for standing in support of the Palestinian people and calling out this university for being complicit in war crimes, and now two students have been expelled…they must be reinstated. This is a just and a righteous demand,” Lotta said.He added: “And we are here to stand in solidarity and also to help people to understand that we’re now fighting in a new situation with Trump MAGA fascism in power and their agenda is horrific. I mean, across the board, you know, terrorizing and rounding up immigrants, attempting to erase LGBTQ people. This is fascism and, you know, they are attempting to use the military to suppress protest in dissent, and the struggle here is a struggle that has inspired students across the country.”The protesters have issued a list of four demands to Barnard president Laura Rosenbury.The demands stated are: “Immediate reversal of the two Barnard students’ expulsions…Amnesty for all student students disciplined for pro-Palestine, action or thought…a public meeting with Dean Leslie Grinage, and president Laura Rosenbery and abolition of the corrupt Barnard disciplinary process and complete transparency for current past and future disciplinary proceedings.”“Disclose, divest, we will not stop, we will rest,” the students chant.“Barnard College go to hell,” others yell before going into, “1, we are the students! 2, we won’t stop fighting! 3, we want divestment now now now!”NYPD have set up more barricades outside Barnard as a verbal altercation between the student protestors and counter protestors broke out with both sides yelling at each other.Elon Musk again criticized Verizon as the Federal Aviation Administration reportedly considers canceling a $2.4bn contract with the telecommunications company. On deck to supplant Verizon: The tech mogul’s own satellite internet company, Starlink, a subsidiary of SpaceX.In a post on his X social media platform, Musk said the “Verizon communication system to air traffic control is breaking down very rapidly”.Musk made the comment in a repost of a tweet linking to the Washington Post’s report that the FAA was “close to canceling” Verizon’s contract in favor of Starlink, setting up a major conflict-of-interest test for the administration as Musk leads its cost-cutting effort. Staff with Musk’s Doge have already infiltrated the aviation agency, according to multiple reports.“The FAA assessment is single digit months to catastrophic failure, putting air traveler safety at serious risk,” Musk said on X. “The Starlink terminals are being sent at NO COST to the taxpayer on an emergency basis to restore air traffic control connectivity. The situation is extremely dire.”On X, Musk said a “total overhaul” of the air traffic control system was needed, an assessment many at the agency would agree with. Handing the contract to Starlink, however, would compound existing conflicts of interest involving SpaceX and the FAA.The Guardian’s Maya Yang is at New York’s Barnard University, where students wearing keffiyehs in solidarity with Palestine are gathered outside on the campus, chanting a series of anti-war slogans amid a heavy New York police department (NYPD) presence.“Free, free Palestine!” the students chant as well as some hold up handwritten signs that read: “No more Zionist occupation”‘and “Amnesty now.”Around 100 or so students appear gathered outside the gated campus of Barnard, where only students and faculty with ID cards are allowed in.Around eight student counter-protestors have gathered across from the Barnard and Columbia students protesting against Israel’s war on Gaza.One student, with a shirt that says “Fuck Hamas, I stand with Israel” started playing Israeli music with others waving an Israeli and an IDF flag. Another student wore a white hoodie with the words: “Columbia University students supporting Israel.”Since Hamas’s 7 October attacks which killed 1,200 Israelis and took over 200 survivors hostage, Israeli forces have waged a deadly war on Gaza, killing over 48,000 Palestinians while forcibly displacing nearly 2 million survivors amid severe shortages in food, fuel and medical supplies due to Israeli aid restrictions. More

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      Trump administration launches portal for reporting DEI in public schools

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      The Trump administration has launched a controversial online portal allowing citizens to report diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) practices in public schools, escalating an aggressive campaign to purge those initiatives from American education.Unveiled on Thursday, the Department of Education’s “End DEI” portal arrived just before the expiration of the administration’s contentious two-week ultimatum for schools and universities to dismantle DEI programs or face funding cuts.The portal explicitly asks for complaints about “discrimination based on race or sex” in K-12 public schools, requiring users to provide personal details, school information and allegations limited to 450 words, with options to upload evidence.Tiffany Justice, the Moms for Liberty co-founder, in a statement posted on the website, urged parents to “share the receipts of the betrayal” in public schools, claiming institutions have “brushed off, mocked, or shut down” parental concerns about “critical theory, rogue sex education and divisive ideologies”.The administration intends to use these submissions to target schools for investigation, according to the website.Critics note the irony that while the administration frames DEI programs as primarily benefiting racial minorities, both private and government research show that white women have historically gained the most from such initiatives in education and employment.Legal resistance to the administration’s policy on schools is increasing. The American Federation of Teachers sued the education department on Tuesday, calling its 14 February memo unconstitutional. Filed jointly with the American Sociological Association, the lawsuit argues the directive violates first amendment and fifth amendment protections and is dangerously vague.“This letter radically upends and re-writes otherwise well-established jurisprudence,” the lawsuit states. “No federal law prevents teaching about race and race-related topics, and the Supreme Court has not banned efforts to advance diversity, equity, and inclusion in education.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe portal launch follows a significant setback for the administration when a federal judge blocked portions of Trump’s executive orders seeking to terminate DEI-related contracts throughout the executive branch.The education department’s deadline for schools to eliminate these programs expires Friday. More

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      Trump mineral deal with Ukraine offers hope but little in the way of security

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      If you want to get an idea of how Donald Trump’s mind works (and this can change from day to day, as we know), it’s worth taking a look at his TruthSocial website. As I write, beneath a video pinned to the top of his feed featuring an AI-generated vision of “Trump Gaza” (complete with casinos, shopping malls and a giant golden statue of the man himself), can be found a clue to the frenetic presidential activity of the past month.

      In a post threatening legal action against any writer or publisher whose “Fake books” offends, Trump refers to himself as “a President who is being given credit for having the Best Opening Month of any President in history”. Apparently George Washington is second on that list – and, given that Potus #1 took 33 days to sign the first bill passed under the new US constitution, you could say Potus #47 has left him trailing in his wake.

      Of course #47 appears to face fewer constitutional constraints than his illustrious predecessor.

      Sadly, though, Trump will be unable to include in this list the deal he has reportedly just struck with Volodymyr Zelensky which swaps a share in Ukraine’s mineral wealth for an as yet unspecified security guarantee.

      Precise details of this deal aren’t confirmed. But we’re told that the original US$500 billion (£394 billion) demand has been dropped in return for a share in an investment fund into which Ukraine will contribute 50% of the revenue from its mineral resources. “What better could you have for Ukraine than to be in an economic partnership with the United States?” commented US national security adviser, Mike Waltz.

      Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

      But for the sake of social media, a deal’s a deal and can be trumpeted as such. Zelensky is heading to Washington to sign the agreement and we shall find out in due course whether or not this will assure Ukraine’s future security. There is still the actual peace deal with Russia to work out, after all.

      Another landmark foreign policy deal brokered by the Trump White House was with the Taliban in 2020 and concerned the future of Afghanistan. And, as Philip A. Berry writes, Zelensky can take little comfort in that.

      Berry, a research fellow at King’s College London, who has extensive experience of working with anti-narcotics agencies in Afghanistan, points to similarities in the way Trump managed negotiations with the Taliban and his deal-making with Ukraine and discussions so far with Russia. The Afghan government was largely cut out of the negotiations, as Trump has threatened to do to Ukraine with regards a peace deal. And like the current situation, Trump’s regular public utterances seriously undermined the talks. Berry concludes:

      Trump’s Taliban deal excluded the US’s ally, conceded too much to an adversary, and was partly motivated by the perception of wasting American dollars in a far-off land. Unfortunately, these hallmarks are all too evident in the president’s stance on Ukraine. Zelensky can only hope that things work out better this time around.

      Read more:
      How Trump the ‘master deal-maker’ failed when it came to negotiating with the Taliban in Afghanistan

      Trust will be absolutely vital if the US and Ukraine are to conclude this agreement and, more critically, if they are to reach terms with Russia that will guarantee the “just peace deal” that Zelensky craves, writes David J. Wilcox of the University of Birmingham. Wilcox points to the relationship of trust built by Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan in the 1980s which paved a way for a series of nuclear weapons reduction treaties between the Soviet Union and the US.

      It has just been announced that preparations are being made for “expert-level” talks between the US and Russia, but, as Wilcox points out, “any negotiations to end the war will rest ultimately on those two states and their leaders”. And at present, nothing has been publicly said about whether Putin and Zelensky have even agreed to meet.

      Read more:
      Ukraine war: why negotiations depend on trust

      Meanwhile, what do we know about Ukraine’s mineral wealth and what sort of return Trump can expect for the US? Dafydd Townley, an expert in international security at the University of Portsmouth, stresses that Trump’s recent decision to impose punitive tariffs against Beijing has closed off China as a source of key minerals on which the US has been reliant up until now.

      It’s a clue, writes Townley, as to why the US president seemed very keen on bringing his deal-making facilities to bear on Greenland, which also has large deposits of desirable minerals.

      Interestingly, as Townley points out, Russia has taken control of about 20% of Ukraine’s mineral deposits under the territory it now controls (which America would be open to exploiting according to an offer made by Vladimir Putin’s aides at the recent talks in Saudi Arabia).

      It’s also worth noting that Ukraine’s extraction sector has suffered over the past decade from chronic under-investment, thanks to the ongoing hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. As a result it could be some years before the US gets what it needs from the deal it has reportedly struck with Kyiv.

      Read more:
      Why Trump really wants Ukraine’s minerals — China has put theirs off limits

      Three long years

      Amid all the shuttle diplomacy and wheeler-dealing taking place around them, at the start of the week the embattled Ukrainian population marked the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. They were joined by more than a dozen foreign leaders who gathered in Kyiv to express their continuing support.

      Sombre gathering: European leaders in Kyiv mark the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
      EPA-EFE/Javad Parsa

      As the conflict moves into its fourth year, Stefan Wolff, an international security expert at the University of Birmingham, takes a look at the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict in the era of Trump.

      He sees worrying parallels with the Munich conference of 1938 which sealed Czechoslovakia’s fate. Not, as you might expect, in terms of Trump’s apparent appeasement of Putin – but because, like Munich, talks on the fate of a sovereign nation are being held without that nation being present. Wolff writes:

      There is every indication that Putin is unlikely to stop in or with Ukraine. And it is worth remembering that the second world war started 11 months after Neville Chamberlain thought he had secured “peace in our time”.

      This, of course, is the prospect that has both terrified and stiffened the resolve of Ukraine’s western allies. But Wolff also points to limitations in this analogy, in that he doesn’t believe that Trump is acting out of fear that he is in a weaker position than Putin, as did Neville Chamberlain and the French prime minister Édouard Daladier.

      It’s rather that Trump sees himself as part of a triumvirate of world leaders, along with Putin and China’s president, Xi Jinping, who have the opportunity to carve out spheres of influence and establish a new world order based on the exercise of raw power.

      Read more:
      Ukraine war: Trump is not trying to appease Putin – he has a vision of a new US-China-Russia order

      Richard Youngs, meanwhile, sees the dawning of what he calls a “no world order”. Youngs, an international relations expert at the University of Warwick, sees an era of flux, where the stability of the past 80 years is disintegrating without anything stable or concrete to replace it.

      Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, with EU commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, and European Council president, Antonio Costa.
      EPA-EFE/Ukrainian presidential press service

      Several European leaders, including Keir Starmer who is today visiting Trump in Washington, are due to meet this Sunday ahead of a bigger defence summit in Brussels next week, to continue discussions about how to respond to the changing Ukraine situation. Reports suggest a European defence bank or fund that would include the UK may be on the cards.

      Youngs certainly believes that European powers will need to consider practical measures in order to bind themselves into more cohesive relationship and ensure their continuing autonomy. One of those will be in boosting their defence capabilities – something that is now gathering pace in the face of US pressure.

      But more radical thinking will be needed, writes Youngs, who has coined the term “geoliberalism” as a way of visualising the sort of thinking about the values and certainties that can bind Europe together in the face of global turbulence.

      Read more:
      No world order: Europe needs more radical thinking for the Trump era

      Alex Titov, meanwhile, believes that for all the talk of “deals” to end the violence, both sides have their reasons for wanting to continue, given that their stated positions remain diametrically opposed and irreconcilable.

      Russia’s battlefield progress, while steady, is slow and there’s no real prospect of it forcing a capitulation from Kyiv in the next 12 months. But – particularly with the radically different US position under Donald Trump, neither is there any chance of Russia being forced off the territory it has captured. Ominously, Titov concludes, this could mean that “the bloodiest battles of the war are yet to come”.

      Read more:
      Ukraine war three years on: the bloodiest battles may be still to come

      A new way of governing

      After a whirlwind first month, Trump held his first cabinet meeting this week, with a special appearance from his right-hand man Elon Musk, who reportedly got to speak more than anyone else. Musk, of course, has been responsible for much of the maelstrom of activity that has caused so much disquiet and is providing a lot of work for lawyers who are pushing back against many of the new adminstration’s measures on the grounds they are unconstitutional.

      Special guest star: Elon Musk addresses Donald Trump’s first cabinet meeting.
      EPA-EFE/Al Drago/pool

      Musk, Trump and his vice-president J.D. Vance have, in turn, pushed back against judges who have issued injunctions to either halt or delay some of their measures. Musk, in a fit of pique this week when three judges halted three of the administration’s policies, complained bitterly “What is the point of having democratic elections if unelected activist ‘judges’ can override the clear will of the people? Well, that’s no democracy at all!”

      Stephen Lovell, professor of modern history at King’s College London, has been looking at the way that Trump and his team are attempting to bend the US constitution to their will, comparing their approach to that of Vladimir Putin. Putin, as we know, never saw a constitutional loophole he didn’t want to wriggle through or otherwise obliterate.

      Read more:
      Trump, Putin and the authoritarian take on constitutionalism

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      Ice contractor plans for surveillance boom under Trump migrant crackdown

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      The Geo Group, the largest single private contractor to US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice), said it was building out its surveillance business to be able to monitor hundreds of thousands or millions more immigrants than it already does.The Geo Group, a private prison corporation and parent company of BI Inc, has contracted with Ice for nearly 20 years to manage the agency’s electronic monitoring program. It currently tracks approximately 186,000 immigrants using devices such as ankle monitors, smart watches and a facial recognition app, according to public Ice data. Due to increasing demand from Donald Trump’s administration, which has promised mass deportations, company executives said that they expect that number to grow past its previous peak of 370,000 to 450,000 immigrants within the next year. The remarks were made during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call on Thursday morning.“A little over two years ago, the ISAP contract utilization peaked at approximately 370,000,” George Zoley, the executive chair of the Geo Group, said on an earnings call on Thursday, referring to the agreement between Ice and Geo. “Returning to that utilization level would generate incremental revenues of $250m and even more if the contract exceeds the prior peak of utilization.”While the company is still ramping up its production of additional GPS units in anticipation of an expanded Ice contract, executives said they are able to monitor “several hundreds of thousands” of people and are trying to position themselves to be able to monitor millions of people. Zoley said that the Geo Group, and its competitor in running private prisons and detention centers, Core Civic, are in expedited discussions with Ice to expand current contracts for detention facilities as well as electronic monitoring.“It’s a fluid situation, but it’s picking up pace, if I may say,” he said. “We’ve gone from conceptual proposals … to substantive pricing and operational discussions. But the procurement process is moving at a speed that is unprecedented. We’ve never seen anything like this before.”The company’s vast electronic monitoring program was instituted as an alternative to detention in 2004 and has been entrusted to Geo group subsidiary BI Inc since then. Many of those forced to wear the ankle monitors, designed and produced by BI, have complained the devices can overheat, shock them or have been put on too tightly. The company has pitched its smart watch location tracker and smart phone app, called SmartLink, as a lower-level of surveillance than the monitor. Executives said on Thursday’s earnings call, however, that they expect a return to a reliance on the physical ankle monitors.“I think there is going to be a preference in the beginning for the ankle monitors which represents the high-security level of monitoring,” Zoley said.Though the company has yet to receive an indication from Ice on when the agency expects to reissue a new contract for the electronic monitoring program, called the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program, executives say they believe the agency is focused on expanding the number of people being tracked through the existing program. The Geo Group is investing $16m into building out its inventory of ankle monitors in order to “be in a position to scale up the federal government’s utilization of ISAP by several hundreds of thousands to upwards of several millions of participants as required”, according to Zoley.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionCompany executives also said they believed that under the Laken Riley Act, which requires the detention of undocumented immigrants charged with violent crimes or theft, those detained will be required to be monitored under the ISAP program “indefinitely” if there is not enough capacity in detention facilities. The executives signaled their intent to expand the company’s surveillance program so that it could monitor an estimated 7 to 8 million people on the non-detained docket who entered the US through non-authorized pathways and then are released into the US. They are also building up capabilities to monitor the estimated 9.5 to 10 million people in the US who are otherwise undocumented in anticipation of Ice’s requests.“Given the size of the population our view is in addition to increased detention capacity … the Laken Riley Act will require significant ramp-up of electronic monitoring services to ensure proper trafficking of persons on non-detained docket and their compliance of the requirements of their immigration court proceedings,” Zoley said. More

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      Trump and California don’t see eye to eye, but critique of high-speed train has many on board

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      Californians know their state is a punching bag for Donald Trump’s administration, a “paradise lost” that the president intends to wrest back from the “radical left lunatics”. But when Trump took aim at the state’s much-delayed high-speed rail project earlier this month, saying it was “the worst managed project” he’d ever seen, some of those leftwingers – and more moderate voters – found themselves in the unusual position of conceding he might have a point.California’s beautiful dream of a bullet train whisking passengers from Los Angeles to San Francisco in less than three hours has been more than 16 years in the making, approved by voters but dogged by so many delays, broken deadlines and cost overruns that it has only just reached the initial stages of laying down track.Originally the whole 494-mile route – stretching south beyond Los Angeles to Anaheim, home to Disneyland – was supposed to be finished by 2020, at a cost of around $30bn. Now, the state’s high-speed rail authority is refocusing its ambitions on a truncated 171-mile middle section in California’s Central valley, at a cost of more than $35bn and a tentative completion date of 2033. The budget for the entire line has ballooned to more than $100bn, with no end date in sight.“It’s impossible that something could cost that much,” Trump complained to reporters in the Oval Office in the midst of his slash-and-burn campaign to cut government spending across the board. He and his transportation secretary, Sean Duffy, have launched an investigation and are threatening to withhold more than $4bn in federal grants previously approved by the Biden administration.California officials from the governor, Gavin Newsom, down have made a show of defending the project, calling it a catalyst for economic development that, after more than $13bn of investment to date, has progressed too far to justify any change of plan. “We just have to accept the responsibility of where we are, and that’s exactly what we are doing,” Newsom said last month at a ground-breaking ceremony for a railhead outside Bakersfield, at the southern end of the truncated Central valley line.With or without federal funding, California will have to come up with the lion’s share of the budget and currently has no plan in place to do so, beyond a study proposed by the state legislature to explore public-private partnerships and the possibility of using revenue from new economic development along the track to keep financing more of it.That comes on top of what supporters and detractors alike describe as years of top-heavy bureaucracy, too much money spent on consultants, and endless negotiating with property owners and public utilities who have felt little pressure to respond to the rail authority’s requests.The inspector general responsible for overseeing the high speed rail authority just issued a pair of reports, one anticipating that the project will keep missing deadlines including the 2033 completion date for the Central valley stretch, and the other detailing long delays caused by the latest negotiations to move water, electricity and gas lines out of the way of the rail route.Republicans, many of them opposed in principle to high-speed rail, have taken to calling the project “the train to nowhere”. But they are not the only ones. David Lazarus, a liberal commentator for the Los Angeles television news station KTLA who is in favor of a bullet train built right, said the state was “in the middle of a boondoggle of bad decisions that is now light years from its original plan and seems to be getting worse”.Elected Democrats who feel similarly have been largely silent since Trump and his so-called “department of government efficiency”, led by Elon Musk, started voicing their criticisms in the wake of last November’s presidential election. In the past, though, many of those Democrats have voiced concern that a botched high-speed rail line in California might spell the death of climate-friendly mass transit in the future.View image in fullscreenFiona Ma, the Democratic state treasurer, told the Guardian in 2023 she thought the government should get out of rail-building and defer to private enterprise because “government is not in the business of being efficient”. That same year, a Democratic state assembly member, Corey Jackson, said: “I don’t think history’s going to judge us well from the decisions we’re making on the project right now.”Newsom, Ma and Jackson did not agree to an interview request or requests for comment.For now, the high-speed rail line retains modest public support. An opinion poll conducted earlier this month for KTLA showed that 54% of California voters still believed it was a good investment, slightly down from a similar survey published by the Los Angeles Times three years ago. Whether those numbers can hold for another decade remains an open question, however, and some Republicans are already smelling blood in the water.View image in fullscreen“This is not the project the voters approved,” Republican assembly member Bill Essayli said in December. “I believe it should go back to the voters to ask them if they want to continue this project and say what it’s actually going to cost and accomplish.”Another Republican assemblymember, Alexandra Macedo, has introduced long-shot legislation to redirect state funding for the rail project to wildfire prevention and water infrastructure projects – both hot topics in the wake of last month’s devastating fires that destroyed whole neighborhoods in and around Los Angeles.The high speed rail authority, meanwhile, remains sanguine about the risk of losing federal funding, saying it welcomes the Trump administration’s investigation. “We stand by the progress and impact of this project,” the chief executive Ian Choudri said in a statement.Asked how the authority planned to continue financing the project, with or without federal money, a spokesperson said they were looking at a variety of options including private investment and government loans. “We are building what we can where we can as other funding is identified,” spokesperson Kyle Simerly said. “It is common for major infrastructure projects to be built in phases to spread costs and manage complexity.”View image in fullscreenMany policy insiders, including Ma, favor the private rail-building approach taken by the Florida-based company Brightline, which is building a high-speed line from Las Vegas to the eastern Los Angeles suburbs. In fact, Brightline is considering a branch line to connect its route to the future high-speed LA-San Francisco line.The only problem? The connection point, in the desert town of Palmdale north of Los Angeles, is 95 miles short of the Central Valley high-speed segment and unlikely to be linked up to it for decades.The branch line would mainly serve as a roundabout way for Brightline passengers to reach downtown Los Angeles from Las Vegas, including a slow stretch of commuter rail over the final 60 miles. On the map, the route looks like a giant wiggle around the San Gabriel mountains instead of a much straighter line along the freeway system. Still, in January, the Biden administration awarded a last-minute $1m federal grant to prepare the Palmdale station for high-speed rail traffic – an act of faith the Trump administration looks unlikely to repeat. More