US Politics

Donald Trump is scrambling to pivot his campaign against Kamala Harris, with attack ads hitting her current record in office and her past in California, according to two sources familiar with the matter, after Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 race on Sunday.The Trump campaign is viewing Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee, especially after Biden gave his endorsement, and started preparing opposition research dossiers against her in recent weeks. But as much as Biden’s withdrawal has left Democrats floundering ahead of its nominating convention next month, it has in many ways also flummoxed the Trump campaign.Trump-aligned political action committees such as MAGA Inc will unleash a wave of attacks against Harris, including a $5m television ad in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona, casting her as the puppet master in the Biden administration.The bet from the Trump campaign is that Democrats fear the possibility of a backlash from their progressive base if they push aside Harris, who is on track to be the first Black female nominee of the party.Still, some senior Trump campaign advisers are uncertain whether she will actually become the nominee, which would complicate their strategy even further.The Trump campaign was always set up to defeat one person – Biden – and Trump’s allies in recent weeks even pulled punches to keep the president viable as a candidate because they were so keen to run against him.The problem for the Trump campaign is that their best attack lines against Biden, on age and mental acuity, cannot be used and, if anything, they might be reprised by Democrats against Trump given he now will be the oldest candidate.And the millions of dollars that the Trump-aligned Pacs spent creating attack ads against Biden, including one as recently as last week that was centered around Biden’s slip-up at the presidential debate last month about military deaths, have gone to waste.View image in fullscreenBiden stepping aside was the Trump campaign’s worst-case scenario for the 2024 election, the two sources said, and everyone from Trump himself to the junior press aides have ironically been urging Biden to stay in the race.The Trump campaign effectively issued an internal directive last month to ensure its staffers did not publicly pile onto the Democratic pressure campaign pushing Biden to drop out, fearing they could help push it over the edge, the Guardian has reported.For weeks, the Trump campaign has been more concerned about running against Harris than Biden, with some senior advisers thinking Harris was better at delivering messages on abortion and Trump’s legal problems.Harris has been vocal on abortion rights, an issue that Trump has told advisers he thinks is an electoral loser after Republicans greatly underperformed in the 2022 midterms following the US supreme court’s overturning of Roe v Wade.And Harris’ past work as a prosecutor could negatively highlight Trump’s recent criminal conviction in New York on 34 felonies of falsifying business records to cover up a hush-money scheme to influence the 2016 election.Some Trump allies, including people at the influential MAGA Inc and Save America Pacs, have also noted she can be humorous at times; clips of her quirky phrases – “did you just fall out of a coconut tree” – have gone viral on TikTok and other social media sites.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAnother problem for the Trump campaign is that the iterations of the Democratic ticket are currently endless: Harris could be atop the ticket with any number of running mate possibilities, or Harris might not even be on the ticket at all.But the Trump campaign also believes Harris has her own drawbacks that will cancel out any gains or momentum she might generate in the forthcoming weeks until the Democratic national convention that starts 19 August, the two sources said.The Trump campaign believes it can paint her as responsible for what they call the “open” US southern border under the Biden administration, and define her by her tenure as a US senator and, before that, as the California attorney general and San Francisco district attorney.In doing so, it aims to resuscitate the same issues that dogged her in the 2020 Democratic primary, where she was pummeled for being soft on crime and too lenient on first-time drug offenders when she was a prosecutor in California.Read more about Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 election:

Joe Biden drops out and endorses Kamala Harris

Democrats praise Biden and Republicans go on the offense

Who will replace Biden? How does the process work? More

After Sunday’s bombshell decision not to seek re-election, Joe Biden still has six months left as the US president and commander-in-chief, and foreign leaders could be expected to write off the American president as a lame duck.Around the world, heads of government and top diplomats had been preparing for a sea change in US policy under a potential Donald Trump administration, guided by his America First views that are broadly skeptical of Europe, unsympathetic toward Ukraine, hawkish on China and pro-Israel.But by abandoning a losing campaign that seemed destined to throw the election to Trump, Biden may have a chance to pass on his legacy to a next Democratic administration – if his party can quickly regroup around a candidate that can make them competitive in November.“I actually think the announcement puts [Biden] in a stronger position, because the likelihood of continuity of policy into a Democratic administration is more likely now,” said Kori Schake, the director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, and a former national security council and state department official during the George W Bush administration.Biden will be put to the test on Monday as Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu flies to Washington to address a joint session of Congress and hold a series of high-stakes meetings at the White House that could influence whether he concludes a ceasefire deal with Hamas or contemplates a broader military campaign along the border with Lebanon. The Biden administration wants the ceasefire and has warned Netanyahu against escalating the conflict.Last week’s Republican National Convention was attended by a number of European ambassadors seeking to remain close to the Trump campaign. But after Biden’s withdrawal, the momentum may swing back toward the centre.View image in fullscreen“Foreign leaders were all angling to meet former President Trump and the people close to him; now they’ll be scrambling to meet the Democratic challengers and figure out who might be influential with them,” said Schake.Netanyahu was already scheduled to hold meetings with vice-president Harris in Washington, said John Kirby, a spokesperson for the national security council, during a briefing last week. Netanyahu would probably also have lines of communication to the Trump campaign, said a European diplomat.“I think [Netanyahu] has to balance a bit more what he hears in Washington from the two sides,” the diplomat said. “It’s now returned to being an open question again as to which way the elections will go.”The US election campaign comes at a pivotal moment in global affairs, with major conflicts ongoing in Ukraine and in Gaza, both US parties warning of a growing great-power rivalry with China, and European allies unsettled by both a revanchist Russia and a potential America First policy under Trump that could see Washington turn its back on the continent.“I think until today decision making in Jerusalem, Moscow, Beijing, or Tehran rested on the confident assumption that the next US president would be called Trump,” said Dr Constanze Stelzenmüller, director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution.Now that is not so clear, although much will depend on whether the Democrat’s successor campaign, under Harris or another candidate, can quickly get up to speed.“Whether that changes now depends on the team the Democrats nominate – and how they do it. But I can see Biden deploying his experience and expertise in an elder statesman role,” Stelzenmüller said.Views still vary and much will depend on the coming days. Dr Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Biden himself would be seen as a “lame duck”, adding: “Foreign leaders will perceive him as on his way out: it will make little sense to try and advance any policy issues with him now.”European leaders are likely to be frustrated to lose a Biden presidency that had largely led the way on the conflict in Ukraine, said Fix, while US adversaries could also seek to press Biden abroad amid the political tumult in the United States.“The question is whether US adversaries such as Iran and Russia will try to test the strength and leadership of the US in this transition period, by stepping up escalation in Ukraine or through the Houthis, for example,” she said.The Gaza war is another area where Biden’s influence has already been tested. Biden for a year had withheld a White House invitation for Netanyahu, whom he had hesitantly sought to restrain after the 7 October Hamas attack. Netanyahu was broadly seen as waiting out Biden in favour of the incoming Trump adminstration, which was seen as more amenable to an aggressive Israeli policy.“I actually, honestly, I don’t think it makes him look any weaker, because he was already in such a terrible position,” said one senior European diplomat ahead of the Netanyahu visit.Coming into this week, that person said, the two would probably discuss a potential deal to return Israeli hostages held in Gaza and conclude a ceasefire deal, on which Biden said the two sides have agreed on a “framework.”They would also likely discuss Netanyahu’s threats of an operation in Lebanon, which would mark a significant escalation in the conflict.Somewhat counterintutively, the next steps for Biden’s power abroad may depend heavily on how his protege and vice-president manages her campaign in the coming days and months.Biden and other senior democrats have endorsed Harris, but that support is not unilateral, and others may seek the party’s nomination.Meanwhile, foreign leaders will be watching closely.“They’ve been reacting already with gratitude and praise on social media – but they will know better than to assume that a Harris nomination is a foregone conclusion,” Stelzenmüller said of foreign leaders. “Any Democrat who is nominated, and wins, is likely to be less of a visceral transatlanticist than Joe Biden.” More

Forty-eight hours is an aeon in American politics, especially if you are Joe Biden and the party that you lead, and a relentlessly growing number of your closest allies within it, are turning inexorably against you.On Friday morning, the message coming out of Joe Biden’s camp left no room for interpretation. He might be sick with Covid, but he was resolute: the Biden re-election show must go on.“He’s not going anywhere,” Biden’s campaign chair, Jen O’Malley Dillon, snapped on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, a program that the president watches so avidly it has become the daily temperature gauge of Biden’s ailing campaign.Then Biden himself popped up with a statement clearly intended to silence the doubters. “I look forward to getting back on the campaign trail next week to continue exposing the threat of Donald Trump’s Project 2025 agenda,” he said, referring to the ultra-right blueprint produced by Trump acolytes for a second Make America Great Again (Maga) term.When news came in later that afternoon that the Biden campaign had scheduled a visit to Austin, Texas, for an event at Lyndon Johnson’s presidential library on Wednesday, it seemed that he really did mean it. Biden, 81 be damned, was forging ahead.The problem was, the doubters would not be silenced. As Friday slipped into Saturday, the noise emanating from them was building from whispers into a cacophony.On Friday alone, at least 10 Democrats in Congress joined those who had publicly called for Biden to go, arguing that it was in the best interest of the party and the country given the threat to democracy posed by Trump. Prominent figures in the party such as Senator Sherrod Brown, himself in a tough race for re-election in Ohio, called on Biden to end his campaign.Sending a message that would not have been lost on Biden and his team, top Californian lawmakers close to Nancy Pelosi, the former Democratic speaker of the House, joined the chorus. Adding her name to that of Adam Schiff, Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren told Biden bluntly that his candidacy was “on a trajectory to lose the White House and potentially impact crucial House and Senate races down ballot. It is for these reasons that I urge you to step aside.”While the 40-odd members of Congress who by Saturday had stuck their necks above the parapet remained a small minority of the 264 Democrats in Congress, in private the rot went much deeper. The stamp of Pelosi, and other leading Democrats who had been pushing Biden to quit from behind the scenes, was beginning to tell.As Biden continued to self-isolate in his house in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, with the first lady, Jill Biden, only able to support him from a separate room, the president could sit and stew over the many of his supposed political friends who were abandoning him. According to the New York Times, he was fuming about Pelosi’s role as the person he blamed for being the prime instigator of a campaign to oust him.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBarack Obama, with whom Biden has had a fraught relationship since Obama nudged his former vice-president to stand aside for Hillary Clinton in the presidential race in 2016, was also the subject of Biden’s mounting frustrations, the newspaper reported.With the walls closing in, it couldn’t have helped Biden’s mood that Trump was delighting in his misery. So much for the new, warm and caring Trump who was supposed to have emerged from the previous weekend’s shooting – on Saturday Trump was back to his favourite pastime of rubbing salt into a rival’s wounds.He was so happy to be in Grand Rapids, Michigan, Trump told a Maga rally – so much more fun than sitting “on some boring beach watching the waves coming in”. There was more.“At this very moment, Democrat party bosses are frantically trying to overthrow the results of their own party’s primaries to dump crooked Joe Biden from the ballot,” Trump gloated.For once, he was telling the truth.Not that Biden’s own campaign team knew any better. The Times reporter, Kenneth Vogel, disclosed on X that 30 minutes before the historic announcement was made, Biden re-election staffers were busily calling delegates pushing them to shore up his crumbling hopes by publicly declaring support for him.Too little, too late.We don’t know when exactly he made the decision, but it seems by late on Saturday Biden had finally come to the view that he had no choice but to repeat the words that so many Democrats had been telling him over these past exceedingly painful days: “I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down.”He called two of his closest advisers, Mike Donilon and Steve Ricchetti, to the vacation home and together “far into the night” they wrote the announcement letter, according to the New York Times. Members of the president’s family and some close aides were told that the end was coming on Saturday, but most of the campaign staff were only notified literally 60 seconds before the news broke.History books will record the moment the statement was posted – 1.46pm, 21 July 2024.It may be some time before we know the full emotional depths to which Biden had to dig to write that agonizing letter. As he said in it, the presidency had been “the greatest honor” of his life, and now he was kissing it goodbye.But that was then. The 48 hours were now done. A new era begins. More

Democrats are rushing to figure out a plan to keep the presidency in November after Joe Biden announced on Sunday he would suspend his bid for re-election.In the hours after Biden’s announcement, a swarm of Democrats endorsed Kamala Harris, the vice-president and onetime presidential candidate, moving her to the top of the list of potential nominees, while donations surged.Biden threw his support behind Harris, saying that choosing her as his vice-president was “the best decision I’ve made”. His campaign finance account changed its name to “Harris for President”, unearthing a $96m cash war chest for the vice-president to make her case to American voters.Small-dollar donors meanwhile raised more than $46.7m on ActBlue in the first five hours of Harris’ presidential campaign, the fundraising platform said on X on Sunday.Harris confirmed she would run.“I am honored to have the President’s endorsement and my intention is to earn and win this nomination,” she said in a statement on Sunday. “Over the past year, I have traveled across the country, talking with Americans about the clear choice in this momentous election. And that is what I will continue to do in the days and weeks ahead.”Harris was to make her first public appearance on Monday morning at the White House, where she is scheduled to speak at an event honoring National Collegiate Athletic Association championship teams. She is filling in for Biden, who is recovering after contracting Covid last week.The endorsements cascaded throughout Sunday, though there were some notable absences that could indicate desire for an open Democratic convention and a primary-esque fight for the nomination before the event in Chicago in mid-August.Barack Obama did not endorse Harris, and neither did the former House speaker Nancy Pelosi – two heavyweights in Democratic politics who reportedly played lead roles in pushing Biden out of the race.“We will be navigating uncharted waters in the days ahead,” Obama said in a statement. “But I have extraordinary confidence that the leaders of our party will be able to create a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges.”By Sunday’s end Harris still appeared the favorite for the nomination, though the many steps between now and winning enough delegates allow for an untold number of ways her candidacy could go awry, especially in such a tumultuous election year.She won endorsements from the leadership of several influential caucuses and political organizations, including the chairs of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the entire Congressional Black Caucus.Harris, if elected, would be the first woman and first person of South Asian descent to be president.Several men who have been discussed as potential running mates for Harris – Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, North Carolina governor Roy Cooper and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly – were among those who issued statements backing her.The rounds of endorsements followed weeks of clamoring on the left and social media memes pushing for Harris’ rise. Her supporters, dubbed the “KHive”, shared coconut emojis, a nod to a speech in which she laughed about something her mother used to say: “You think you just fell out of a coconut tree? You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.” They resurfaced an ad from Harris’ 2020 presidential bid that attacked Trump for his comments on women and questionable businesses and posted copies of a check Trump made to Harris’s previous campaigns in California.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionNo coordinated opposition has emerged against Harris or in favor of any other candidate, a sign that Harris will probably be able to win the presidential nomination. Some reports indicated that the Michigan governor, Gretchen Whitmer, would not challenge Harris. The California governor, Gavin Newsom, said on Sunday he would be endorsing Harris. Both had been floated as possible contenders.But on Sunday, at least one potential challenger did emerge. Joe Manchin, the West Virginia senator who changed his party affiliation from Democrat to independent earlier this year, is reportedly considering a return to the Democratic party so he can run for the presidency.The rules and processes for securing a Democratic nominee will be unfamiliar to many involved. With Democrats wading into uncharted territory, Democratic National Committee chair Jaime Harrison said the party would soon announce the next steps in its nomination process.Biden is the first president in 56 years to call off his campaign for re-election. In 1968, Lyndon Johnson stepped down from campaigning, which led to a floor fight for delegates at the Democratic convention, also in Chicago.While Democrats piled praise on Biden for making a hard but statesmanlike decision, Republicans began attacking Harris and alleging the left was engaged in an anti-democratic practice that could lead to lawsuits.Republicans sought to pin Biden’s vulnerabilities on Harris and called for Biden to leave the White House, saying if he was not competent enough to campaign, he should not remain president.“Kamala Harris is just as much of joke as Biden is,” the Trump campaign said in a statement. “Harris will be even WORSE for the people of our Nation than Joe Biden. Harris has been the Enabler in Chief for Crooked Joe this entire time. They own each other’s records, and there is no distance between the two. Harris must defend the failed Biden Administration AND her liberal, weak-on-crime record in CA.”Read more about Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 election:

Joe Biden drops out and endorses Kamala Harris

Democrats praise Biden and Republicans go on the offense

Who will replace Biden? How does the process work?

A look back at Joe Biden’s life in politics
Reuters and Associated Press contributed to this report More

Good morning. Joe Biden’s momentous announcement that he is dropping out of the presidential race may soon be remembered as inevitable – but if so, it only started to look that way once it had happened. Even as the president announced his withdrawal, campaign aides were calling Democratic convention delegates to shore up their support, Politico reported; blindsided White House officials were “finding out by tweet”.That’s not to say the decision was surprising. With more and more party leaders and donors urging Biden to quit, publicly or privately, in recent days, the president cut a deeply isolated figure. After the announcement, in contrast, Democrats fell in line to describe him as a selfless American hero – and many of them echoed his endorsement of his vice-president, Kamala Harris.One measure of the hope the decision brought with it: stagnant donations immediately rocketed, and by this afternoon, she is likely to have raised more money in a 24-hour period than any other candidate in US history.The urgent questions now: will anyone challenge Harris for the nomination? How would she campaign for the presidency, and how would Republicans attack her? And can she do what Joe Biden concluded he could not, and beat Donald Trump in November? Today’s newsletter takes you through Biden’s historic decision, and what might come next. Here are the headlines.Five big stories

UK politics | Rachel Reeves has indicated that the government could agree above-inflation pay rises for teachers and other public sector workers, saying there is “a cost to not settling” pay negotiations. Reports suggest independent pay review bodies had advised increases of about 5.5%.

Crowdstrike outage | NHS patients have been warned GP services “cannot be resumed immediately” as the effects of Friday’s global IT outage continue. While computer systems have largely returned to normal, some knock-on effects are ongoing, with some stranded air travellers facing days of further delays.

Immigration | Indonesian workers who paid thousands of pounds to travel to Britain and pick fruit at a farm supplying most big supermarkets have been sent home within weeks for not picking fast enough. One of the workers said he had sold his family’s land, as well as his and his parents’ motorbikes, to cover the more than £2,000 cost of coming to Britain in May.

UK news | Six people, including two children, have died in a collision between a car and a motorbike in West Yorkshire. Police called the incident “absolutely tragic” and said the A61 near Barnsley would remain closed for some time.

Pollution | Real-time water quality monitors are being installed at wild swimming spots and beaches across southern England to help people assess their immediate risk of getting ill from polluted water.
In depth: A historic exit transforms the race for the White HouseView image in fullscreen“It has been the greatest honour of my life to serve as your president,” Joe Biden said in a letter to the American public yesterday. “And while it has been my intention to seek re-election, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term.”With that – but no televised address until later in the week – he threw the presidential race into astonishing flux. Precedents are hard to find. Biden is the first incumbent to decline to seek re-election since Lyndon Johnson in 1968, and no major party candidate has ever stood aside this close to election day.Biden’s decisionThe pressure on Biden that began in earnest after his disastrous debate performance had reached fever pitch in recent days, with a series of tepid media appearances failing to persuade the Democratic establishment that he would be able to beat Trump.For weeks, he forcefully rejected the calls to step aside – but there were reports on Friday that he had become more receptive to those arguments. Last night, the New York Times reported that on Saturday he summoned two of his closest advisers to the vacation home in Delaware where he was recovering from Covid, and worked with them long into the night to draft the letter announcing his withdrawal.Only his family and closest aides were told on Saturday: most of his advisers got the news just a minute before he posted the letter on social media. Reuters reported that the decision came after Biden pored over internal polling data which showed him behind Trump in six critical swing states, and collapsing in others that had been previously been safely in his column.In the aftermath of his decision, many senior Democrats praised him as a patriot who had put his country’s future before his own interests. “It’s a testament to Joe Biden’s love of country – and a historic example of a genuine public servant once again putting the interests of the American people ahead of his own,” wrote Barack Obama.What happens nowWhile Joe Biden won the Democratic primaries at a canter, his status as the party’s nominee had not yet been officially confirmed. As Joan E Greve sets out in this useful explainer, the delegates who are pledged to vote for Biden at the party’s convention next month will now be released from their obligation.In theory, that could mean an open “floor fight” in which candidates vie for the delegates’ votes. The Democratic National Committee chair, Jaime Harrison, said yesterday that the process would be “transparent and orderly”. The DNC’s rules committee said last night that it would meet on Wednesday to settle on the process.Kamala Harris quickly declared her candidacy after Biden’s announcement. She has no automatic right to Biden’s delegates as his vice-president, but his endorsement plus the explicit support of many prominent figures in the party mean there is a very good chance she will run unopposed, or be a strong favourite even if someone stands against her.In her favour is wariness among the Democratic establishment of a chaotic display to the public in an open battle at the convention – alongside worries that Black and female voters could turn away from the party if Harris were to be denied the nomination that some feel she has already earned. Others argue that it could be an electrifying debate with the potential to garner huge public interest.Either way, that theory will only be tested if a serious rival emerges, which looks increasingly unlikely. One potential candidate, Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, quickly said yesterday that she would not stand; another governor, Gavin Newsom of California, has repeatedly said that he would not stand against Harris. Both endorsed her last night, along with more than 100 other elected Democrats.Last night, Axios reported that Harris was already calling senior Democrats to try to lock down the nomination. While many senior figures including the Clintons have already backed her, Barack Obama was not among them, reportedly because he believes he can make the most impact by waiting until a nominee is confirmed.Harris’s strengthsView image in fullscreenHarris does a bit better than Biden in match-up polls against Donald Trump: they were tied with 44% each in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, giving her a two-point advantage over Biden in the same poll. She also has slightly higher approval ratings than Biden.While those figures do not make an overwhelming case for her nomination, her supporters argue that they could quickly improve as she is introduced to the public with a unified and excited Democratic party behind her. And they point to her recent record in attacking Trump, as well as being a prominent voice for Biden on abortion, as evidence for the theory that she could be a nimble and energetic campaigner against the Republican candidate.Harris is viewed as a moderate who succeeded in California with a “tough on crime” message but later recast herself as a progressive reformer. The contrast between a 59-year-old former prosecutor, who would be the first woman and the first woman of colour to be elected president, and a 76-year-old convicted criminal is another source of optimism, underlined by this ad from her 2020 campaign that was widely shared yesterday. And Harris’s supporters hope that she could shore up Democratic support among the significant number of younger voters and people of colour who polls show have been drawn to Trump.Another point in her favour is a highly practical one: it will be much simpler for her to access Biden’s hefty $240m war chest – and the significant funds now pouring in from donors who had suspended their contributions – than for any candidate who was not part of his campaign. Vox has a useful explainer of the significant hurdles facing any other candidate.Harris’s weaknessesWhile she looks like a stronger candidate than Biden, that’s a pretty low bar. Democrats who oppose her coronation as the nominee ask an obvious question: if we’re prepared to go through the pain of forcing Biden out, surely we shouldn’t then nominate his vice-president by default?That argument is bolstered by the evidence of Harris’s previous run at the presidency, which sputtered out after her support fell into the low single digits and saw her described by the New York Times as “an uneven campaigner who changes her message and tactics to little effect”.This Washington Post piece from Saturday reports that many of her supporters say that she has become a far more effective political communicator and strategist since then. But she struggled to carve out an effective role in the vice-presidency too, being saddled with a difficult policy portfolio including immigration and the failed voting rights bill, where Biden eventually cut her out of negotiations with lawmakers.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionPerhaps the most fundamental problem for Harris: in what could be a “change” election, she will have to run on Biden’s record. So far, the Republican playbook appears to be to link her to it indelibly, and to claim that she failed to warn the public about Biden’s allegedly declining faculties.It remains to be seen if those attacks will work – and Harris’s nomination is not yet certain. But whatever comes next, Democrats are significantly more optimistic today. One of the dominant reactions to emerge after Trump’s rambling convention speech last week was: this guy is confident, but he is also very beatable. As Moira Donegan wrote in an opinion piece last night: “In withdrawing from the presidential race, Biden has given the country a fighting chance to defeat Trump.”What else we’ve been readingView image in fullscreen

For the latest interview in the Guardian’s Fascinating Olympians series, Simon Hattenstone meets Victoria Pendleton (above) – who won gold in 2008 and 2012 as well as multiple world titles but felt crushed by the way she was treated within the sport. “ I will always feel a sense of underachievement,” she says. “I always wanted more for myself.” Archie

Michael Segalov’s profile of political broadcaster Lewis Goodall tracks the 35-year-old’s rise through and exit from the BBC, the explosive popularity of the News Agents podcast, and how his working class roots have shaped his worldview and career. Nimo

Tom Lamont has written a superb exploration of the complexities of life as a so-called “stealth Jew”, whose heritage isn’t instantly obvious to others, and the nagging sense since 7 October that even among friends there might be a “phantom conversation, less restrained, that would be taking place if I wasn’t present”. Archie

“Food is deeply political,” says restaurateur and UN World Food Programme advocate Asma Khan in an interview with Kate Mossman. Over Afghan food, the pair discuss how Khan came into the world of food and why it has taken over her life. Nimo

Can Labour keep the populist right at bay? David Kynaston argues that history says it can, if Keir Starmer avoids “privileging highly educated, self-perpetuating ‘meritocratic’ elites over the mass of working people”. Archie
SportView image in fullscreenGolf | Xander Schauffele won the Open at Royal Troon, finishing nine shots under par and two ahead of Justin Rose and Billy Horschel. Schauffele becomes the first player to win two majors in the same season since 2015.Cycling | Tadej Pogacar sealed victory in the Tour de France with victory in the final time trial in Nice. His success means that he is the first winner of the Giro d’Italia-Tour de France double in the 21st century.Cricket | Shoaib Bashir helped himself to a flurry of West Indian wickets after hundreds from Joe Root and Harry Brook set up England’s series-clinching 241-run win at Trent Bridge. Chasing an unlikely target of 385, the tourists were demolished for 143 in just 36.1 overs as rookie spinner Bashir claimed five for 41.The front pagesView image in fullscreenGlobal front pages are dominated by the news of Joe Biden’s decision: a full round-up of those in the UK and elsewhere is here. “Biden quits race” is our rightfully large Guardian splash headline this morning, while the Financial Times says “Biden pulls out of White House race and endorses Harris as his successor”. “Biden bows out” – that’s the Metro. The Daily Mail has “Biden out … Kamala in?” – under the strapline “American in turmoil”. “Private care home for kids shut over ‘abuse’” is the Daily Mirror’s lead story – the US news goes into a puff along the top with the text “Biden quits race to stay president”. The Times’ headline might not surprise: “Biden quits the race”. The Daily Telegraph cuts that down to “Biden quits race”. Both the Daily Express and the i shorten it even further to “Biden quits” – which is really too short, because you could easily take it as meaning he has resigned from the presidency.Today in FocusView image in fullscreenPresident Biden steps asideIn a special episode of Politics Weekly America shared on the Today in Focus feed this morning, Jonathan Freedland and Nikki McCann Ramirez discuss the extraordinary news of Joe Biden’s decisionCartoon of the day | Edith PritchettView image in fullscreenThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badView image in fullscreenFor this week’s A new start after 60 column, Ammar Kalia meets Julian Lee, who became a blacksmith in retirement. After 40 years working in education for London councils, Lee wanted to try something new and rekindle his childhood love of crafting. “Blacksmithing knives is a beautiful combination of producing art and something with a practical use,” says Lee. “It feels amazing to do something with your hands, and once you start making these objects, you don’t want to stop.”It isn’t without its challenges. “The anvil was the heaviest thing I’ve ever handled,” he says. “It took three of my friends to get it into the garden”. But Lee takes great satisfaction from his work – and has even taken on an apprentice.Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

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Joe Biden has announced he will no longer contest the 2024 US presidential election. He has thrown his support instead behind his vice president, Kamala Harris.

In most countries, including Australia, such a decision would trigger a meeting of party number-crunchers behind closed doors, where the party would select a new candidate and announce the decision to the rest of the country.

Not in America.

How nominees are selected

American political parties arguably have the most transparent system to select candidates running for office in the world. This very transparency, which many cherish as an additional democratic feature of the American political system, makes the next steps a bit more complicated today than some may be acknowledging.

In brief, any party member who wants to run for president of the United States must run for “primary” elections. Each party holds their own primaries — or caucuses — and whoever wins those becomes the party’s candidate at the general election.

The process, however, is indirect: when voters vote for a candidate during a primary election, their vote actually triggers the selection of a party delegate who is pledged to vote for that candidate during the party convention. The party’s nominee is then formally selected at the convention.

The Democratic party has around 4,700 delegates. Of these, around 3,800 delegates were pledged to nominate Biden for president and are now essentially free agents. Biden’s endorsement of Harris might convince some of them to support her bid, but they are under no obligation to do so.

This situation is unprecedented in modern US elections. The current presidential nominating system based on widespread primary elections took shape in the 1970s. Since then, it has worked virtually flawlessly, with candidates from both parties collecting pledged delegates during the primary season and receiving the nomination during each party’s convention.

The last time that any of the two major American parties held an “open convention” – that is, a convention where there is no individual with enough pledged delegates to be considered the presumptive party nominee and instead the delegates choose the candidate with a free vote – was the Democratic National Convention of 1968. Nothing like this has happened since.

So what happens now?

Harris is definitely running to secure the party’s nomination. Several prominent Democrats have also endorsed her candidacy. But she is not the official Democratic candidate yet, and has some way to go in order to secure the nomination.

According to the party rules, at this stage any member of the Democratic party can gather signatures from at least 300 delegates from a minimum of six states to run for the top spot on the Democratic ticket. This means, theoretically, that there could be up to 15 people seeking the Democratic nomination, including Harris, although it is highly unlikely that such a large number of contenders will enter the field now.

So far, no other potential candidate has expressed a clear intention to run. Should there be more than one candidate, the party rules state that each candidate has the right to give a 20-minute speech in front of the convention, before the delegates vote on the nominee. If a small number of contenders emerged, such a process could be managed effectively. If a large number of contenders were to emerge, however, then the process could quickly become messy, resulting in multiple ballots before a candidate is selected.

From August 19-22, Democrats will gather in Chicago for their national convention. Interestingly, Chicago was also the city where the Democrats gathered during the last properly contentious convention in 1968.

That year, President Lyndon Johnson announced on March 31 that he was not going to run for re-election. A few days later, on April 4, Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated in Memphis. Then on June 6, right after winning the California primary election during his presidential bid, Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated.

When the Democratic delegates gathered in Chicago, they nominated the vice president, Hubert Humphrey, who had not run in any of the primary elections and caucuses that took place that season. Anti-Vietnam war protests also triggered a number of riots and protests around Chicago, so the process was extremely volatile.

We don’t know yet if 2024 is going to be an open convention or not. But we know that many have been arguing that, if Biden stepped down, there should not be a “coronation” of Harris, but rather a democratic process that selects the next candidate.

Harris has also stated that she wants to “earn and win” the nomination. Donations also appear to have been flowing in record numbers towards the Democratic cause since Biden’s announcement.

There is now a very delicate balancing act unfolding between keeping the democratic nature of the nominating process intact and ensuring that the Democratic party is quickly united if it has any chance of beating Donald Trump in November. More

The United States election will be held on November 5. On Sunday US time, President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential election contest and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris.

It’s not certain, but very likely Harris will now be the Democratic candidate to face former Republican president Donald Trump in November. During the Democratic presidential primaries held early this year, Biden won about 95% of all delegates to the August 19–22 Democratic convention. These delegates are likely to support Harris given Biden’s endorsement.

Since the debate with Trump on June 27 that was widely thought to have been a disaster for Biden, he has faced pressure to withdraw. In an Ipsos poll for US ABC News that was released before Biden’s withdrawal on Sunday, Democratic voters wanted Biden to withdraw by 60–39.

Following the assassination attempt against Trump on July 13 and the Republican convention from July 15–18, Trump’s lead over Biden in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate of national polls had increased to 3.2 points from 1.9 points on July 13, the largest margin since the aggregate began in March. Vote shares were 43.5% Trump, 40.2% Biden and 8.7% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

I’ve written previously that the presidency is not decided by the national popular vote. Instead each state has a certain amount of Electoral Votes (EVs), mostly based on population, with each state awarding their EVs winner takes all. It takes 270 EVs to win. The EV system is likely to skew to Trump, so Biden was further behind than in the national polls.

Biden will continue as president until his term ends in January 2025. His net approval in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is -17.7, with 56.2% disapproving and 38.5% approving. His net approval is worse than other previous presidents at this point in their term, except George Bush Sr and Jimmy Carter.

Trump’s net favourability in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is -12.0, with 53.7% unfavourable and 41.7% favourable. His ratings are relatively unchanged since April. Unfortunately, FiveThirtyEight has no favourability ratings for Harris.

Will Harris win?

It’s too soon to analyse Harris vs Trump polls. Harris had not been a presidential candidate before today and name recognition of Biden explains his often better numbers than Harris. A recent national YouGov poll for CBS News gave Trump a five-point lead over Biden and a three-point lead over Harris.

There are two things that should advantage Harris. One is that economic data has improved, with inflation dropping and real earnings up. The other is that, while Biden would have been almost 82 by the election, Harris will only be 60 by then. Trump is 78, so the age split that was unfavourable to Biden will be favourable to Harris.

It’s too early to tell what a contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris might look like in the polls.
Allison Dinner/EPA

Nevertheless, nominating a candidate who has not been battle-tested in the primaries is very risky. When Harris ran for president in 2020, she withdrew from the contest in December 2019, before any primaries.

However, with Biden’s age of great concern to voters, and with him already behind Trump, switching to a new candidate could prove a sensible move for the Democrats. Changes in prime minister have worked for Australian parties in the past, with Malcolm Turnbull winning the 2016 federal election after replacing Tony Abbott, and Scott Morrison winning in 2019 after replacing Turnbull.

While Biden has been losing, US Senate polls in the presidential swing states of Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona suggest the Democratic candidates are winning, and doing much better than Biden. So perhaps Democrats just have a Biden problem.

US earnings up

In June, headline inflation dropped 0.1% after being unchanged in May and 12-month inflation dropped to 3.0%, the lowest it has been since June 2023. Core inflation was up 0.1% in June after increasing 0.2% in May and has increased 3.3% in the last 12 months, the smallest increase since April 2021.

The low inflation in May and June has boosted real (inflation-adjusted) earnings in those months, with real hourly earnings up 0.9% for May and June and real weekly earnings up 0.7%. In the 12 months to June, real hourly earnings are up 0.8% and real weekly earnings up 0.6%.

In June, a net 206,000 jobs were added, but the unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.1%. This is the highest unemployment rate since November 2021. More

The 2024 US presidential election is proof that in America nothing succeeds like excess.The standing down of President Biden is just the latest twist in this extraordinary race – and could be the circuit breaker the Democrats are looking for. It removes age as an issue for them and potentially refocuses the campaign, with Kamala Harris the standard bearer.She is within striking distance of Trump in national polls and involves the least disruptive transition to the Democrat campaign. Trump may seek to ridicule ‘laughing’ Kamala but that could backfire with voters, particularly women. She will need a running mate who can appeal in the swing states and has a compelling personal story. This will inject new energy into the campaign.Undoubtedly, Trump has momentum. The former president’s acceptance speech at the RNC did not chart a new policy direction or presage a kinder, gentler politics. That is not what fuels the Maga engine. Trump has harnessed the anger of those Americans who feel like outsiders in their own country, threatened by rapid change, identity politics and left behind by the widening of income and wealth inequalities.The selection of JD Vance, a smart and articulate convert to Maga is a signal that Trump is not looking to appeal to the ever-shrinking pool of moderates or independents. In Trump’s eyes, Maga is here to stay, and Vance is its tribune.The Democrats’ best strategy now is to turn the election into a referendum on Trump’s negatives, which they define as the chaos of his first term and threat to American institutions. The departure of President Biden provides that opportunity.US elections are determined by turnout. The Maga base is energised by Trump’s ‘resurrection’. Democrats will now have to pick themselves off the floor and push the buttons of various sections of the electorate to motivate turnout.In many ways, this is now a race between Vance and Harris, who is the most likely Democrat nominee. The age issue has been turned on its head. Vance’s views come into focus now that he is only a heartbeat away from the presidency.Many women will vote to send a message on restriction of abortion rights. Vance’s strong views on restricting abortion rights provide a perfect foil for this argument. Harris is best placed to run that argument. Trump has soft-pedalled on the issue in recognition of its lethality to his campaign.What does this mean for Australia and the rest of the world? Do not expect much change in international economic policy from either side of politics.Trump upended trade policy in 2016, forcing Hillary Clinton to disown her administration’s centrepiece trade strategy for the Indo-Pacific, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which dealt a major blow to the US pivot to the region. Since then, market access agreements have been off the table for both sides of politics with more interest in how to tilt the playing field in favour of US firms by imposing higher labour and environmental costs on foreign competitors.Covid 19 and the technological cold war with China are also reshaping industrial supply chains with more reshoring and friend-shoring in the offing. The Aukus capability pact and the Quad focus on critical and emerging tech are leading examples of this trend. Both Trump and a reelected Democrat administration will double down on this, with perhaps more onshoring in Trump’s case.One major point of difference is climate change policy and international cooperation. Trump is likely to again withdraw from the Paris agreement and promises to drill for more oil from day one, further extending America’s energy independence and fossil fuel exports. His industry policy is lower energy costs and less regulation to attract more onshoring.Trump’s tech policy is unclear. He flip-flopped on the banning of TikTok. He is courting the Silicon Valley titans, who are turning Maga in the hope of less tax on capital and no more regulation. Trump’s main beef with big tech is that it restricts free speech (his speech) on social media. Vance is a fan of support for little tech in opposition to big tech, and this appeals to his venture capitalist backers.The Trump mantra of ‘no more wars’ appeals to an electorate exhausted by the blood and treasure expended in Afghanistan and Iraq. It is likely he will follow through on solving Ukraine in one day (by effectively abandoning it), he is encouraging Israel to ‘finish the job’ in Gaza as soon as possible (that is, not on his watch) and the signal to China on Taiwan is very mixed. However, many Republicans are ardent supporters of Taiwan and its right to exist. This could put a brake on Trump sacrificing Taiwan on the altar of a grand bargain with China on trade.Trump is ahead now but we saw over the weekend how quickly things can change. As they used to say on World Championship Wrestling, anything can happen – and probably will.

Arthur Sinodinos is a former Australian ambassador to the US. He is the partner and chair of The Asia Group’s Australia practice and was a former minister for industry, innovation and science More