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      Cameron warns failure to supply arms to Ukraine will harm US security

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      David Cameron has said that the continued US failure to supply arms to Ukraine would undermine its own security, strengthen China and cast doubt on America’s reliability as an ally around the world.The UK foreign secretary, who attended the G20 meeting in Brazil earlier in the week, admitted that the effort to rally global support for the Ukrainian cause had been “damaged” by the fact that neither the US nor the UK had voted for a UN resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. But he argued the damage had been mitigated by the UK’s clarification of its position.Cameron was speaking in New York on the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine at a time when the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, is blocking a substantial package of military aid to Kyiv, leading to a severe ammunition shortage for Ukrainian troops.The foreign secretary was flanked by his German and Polish counterparts, Annalena Baerbock and Radek Sikorski, who made their own calls for US supplies to be resumed at a meeting organised in New York by the Wall Street Journal ahead of a UN security council meeting on Ukraine on Friday afternoon.Earlier in the day, Joe Biden had announced 500 new sanctions on Russia and a further 100 entities around the world for providing support to Russia, in an effort to squeeze Moscow’s revenues. But the foreign ministers made clear that arms supplies were the key in the struggle with Russia in Ukraine.Cameron sought to frame his argument in terms of competition with China, one of the few issues that unites Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress.“I know that lots of people in Congress are hugely concerned about the role of China and if you’re concerned about the role of China, you must make sure that Putin doesn’t win,” he said.He added that Beijing was enjoying “the fact that we’re, we’re not as united as we should be. I think that’s why the American package is so important.”In its relations with countries around the world, Cameron argued, China was saying “come have a relationship with us. America isn’t reliable.”The end of US military support to Ukraine, he added “would strengthen that argument they make in an enormous way”.Baerbock said the blockage of US aid “will be the biggest gift for Putin and will be the biggest gift for China”.“The Ukrainians are fighting like lions, but you cannot fight with bare hands,” Sikorski said. “They are running out of ammunition for anti-aircraft missiles that are protecting cities and when soldiers don’t have artillery shells, they have to do close combat fighting. That means that Ukrainian casualties are greater.”The European ministers face an uphill task persuading a Republican congressional leadership that is under the powerful sway of Donald Trump, an opponent of Ukrainian aid, and also resistant to allied pressure. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a far-right Republican congresswoman, responded to an earlier effort by Cameron to persuade Congress in Ukraine’s favour that the foreign secretary could “kiss my ass”.“I’m not trying to lecture or tell American congressmen what to do,” Cameron insisted on Friday. “I love my own country but I love America too. I think this is really important for America, for American security.”He admitted that the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and western positions on the conflict had complicated efforts to build global solidarity against Russia. Earlier this week, the US vetoed a UN security council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire for the third time, and the UK abstained.“The fact that we haven’t signed up for some of these resolutions and what have you, it does do some damage. There is no doubt about that,” Cameron said. “But I think when you explain how we really want to stop the fighting right now and have got a plan to do it, I think that helps to build some faith between the Arab world and what foreign ministers like myself and others say.”As European ministers sought to change minds in the Republican party, Volodymyr Zelenskiy held talks with a US congressional delegation in Lviv. The group – led by the Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer – said it wanted to show that the US had not abandoned “the Ukrainian people”, or its Nato allies in Europe.Schumer said he and his fellow Democrats would “not stop fighting” until $61bn in military funding for Ukraine was delivered. House Republicans are currently blocking the assistance package, despite a 64-19 Senate vote in favour.View image in fullscreen“We believe we are at an inflection point in history and we must make it clear to our friends and allies around the globe that the US does not back away from our responsibilities,” Schumer said. The consequences of walking away would be “severe”, he warned, saying he would “make this clear” to the Republican speaker and to others obstructing aid back in Washington.Schumer told the Associated Press opposition to the national security package “may be the view of Donald Trump and some of the hard-right zealots. But it is not the view of the American people, and I don’t think it’s the view of the majority of people in the House or Senate.”Ukrainian commanders say with no new US weapons deliveries they are facing serious problems on the battlefield. They say that Ukrainian soldiers were forced to withdraw from the eastern city of Avdiivka last week because of an acute shortage of shells and ammunition. Further Russian gains were likely if no more aid arrived, they admitted.Ukraine is also running out of western-supplied interceptor missiles. A Russian drone strike killed three people early on Friday in the Black Sea port of Odesa, the regional governor, Oleh Kiper, said. Ukrainian air defences were only able to shoot down 23 out of 31 drones – a significantly lower number than in attacks last year.Earlier in Lviv Zelenskiy met with Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen. The country has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest European allies. Frederiksen recently pledged to give all of Denmark’s artillery reserves to Ukraine and on Friday signed a long-term security agreement with Kyiv. It envisages giving €1.8bn ($1.9bn) in support.The two leaders visited Lviv’s Lychakiv cemetery and laid flowers at the grave of a Ukrainian soldier. Many hundreds of service personnel have been buried there since Russia’s full-scale invasion two years ago. More

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      Joe Biden has raised more than Trump so far – here’s how US election fundraising is working out

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      Americans spend mind-blowing amounts of money on their elections. According to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) in the 2016 presidential election cycle the candidates spent a total of US$1.6 billion (£1.2 billion). This rose to US$4.1 billion in the 2020 cycle, and it is likely to be much higher in the current election campaign.

      Donations to presidential campaign funds come from individuals, political parties and political action committees (Pacs). The latter pool contributions from supporters to promote or oppose candidates, as well as raising money in the first place. They are legally independent from the campaign funds raised by candidates and parties, but they act in concert with them, for example, by funding ads which support the policies and positions taken by their candidates.

      Political campaigns in the US are very expensive because they run on for a long time and involve costly advertising. As soon as a new president is elected, preparations begin for the midterm congressional elections two years later, as well as the next round of presidential primaries.

      The FEC updates the figures on money raised and spent on the 2024 presidential election campaign on a continuous basis. At the time of writing the 2024 presidential campaign has already raised a total of just over US$397 million by all the candidates, and spent just under US$294 million since January 2021. The Republicans have raised US$225 million and the Democrats $103 million.

      As regards spending, the Republicans have spent US$191 million and the Democrats US$48 million on the 2024 election campaign so far. These sums do not include the money raised by congressional and state-level campaigns, but just relate to presidential hopefuls.

      The big discrepancy between the two parties in spending is because Joe Biden has no significant rivals for the Democratic party nomination, but the Republicans started out with nine candidates certified by the Republican National Committee. Spending by these hopefuls adds to the total raised.

      Around 18% of the population gave money to a candidate or a party in the presidential election contest of 2020, according to the American National Election Study. It is likely these small donations from individuals are largely motivated by their attachment to a party or a candidate.

      Donations from corporations to Pacs supporting the candidates often reflect a strategy of “hedging”, or giving money to both sides in order not to upset the winner if they back the loser. For example, the OpenSecrets website which tracks money in US politics, shows that Exxon Mobile gave 58% of its political donations to the Republicans and 42% to the Democrats (in 2020).

      Costly challenges to Trump

      Donald Trump is facing a number of different challenges to his fundraising. By mid February he had raised less money than the president, and there are some signs that January’s fundraising was particularly strong.

      The FEC data shows that Biden has raised around US$92 million so far in this year’s campaign, whereas Donald Trump’s total is just under US$85.3 million. This represents the Biden and Trump totals out of the money spent by all presidential candidates up to this point.

      Biden has raised more than Trump in the presidential campaign 2024, so far.
      Shutterstock

      In the 2020 election, Trump’s voting support was unsurprisingly strongest in the Republican-supporting states, which tend to be poorer than Democratic-supporting states. This means that he is likely to get less money from individual donations than Biden.

      The gap between incomes in “red” (Republican) and “blue” (Democrat) states has been growing over time, so this problem is likely to get worse as the election approaches.

      Another problem for him is that so-called “dark money” donations from rich individuals in 2020 overwhelmingly favoured the Democrats rather than the Republicans. Dark money refers to anonymous donations from the very wealthy via organisations described as “super Pacs”. In 2020 these donations exceeded US$1 billion, so they are really important.

      According to OpenSecrets, Biden received US$174 million of dark money compared with only US$25 million for Trump. This premium for Biden may be even larger than in 2020 if, as seems likely, Trump gets the Republican nomination.

      One interesting development is that Haley has been receiving significant sums from rich donors in her challenge to Trump for the Republican nomination. Even though her bid is a long shot, these donors clearly prefer her to Trump.

      Finally, Trump is facing US$83 million in fines following a guilty verdict from a New York jury in a sexual assault case against columnist E. Jean Carroll. In a second case relating to his business empire in New York, the judge has ruled that fraud was committed and fined him a total of US$355 million.

      The FEC is keeping a close eye on campaign finance, so he will be well advised to resist the temptation to use campaign funds to pay off these fines, since this would be illegal.

      Overall, this means that the ex-president is likely to be outspent by a large margin by Biden’s campaign. But does this make a difference to the election outcome?

      Recent research confirms consistent findings that campaign spending in US elections has a significant impact on support for candidates, although it tends to mobilise people to vote rather than to switch support between candidates.

      This means that the more the Democrats outspend the Republicans in the 2024 campaign the greater the chance that Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump, or vice versa. More

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      ‘That’s a hard one’: Alabama senator flounders over state’s IVF embryo ruling

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      Republican US senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama seemingly struggled to grasp the contradictory situation women have been placed in after his state’s supreme court ruled that frozen embryos are children.Asked at a conservative conference on Thursday what he would say to women currently denied the fertility treatment, the former college football coach replied: “Yeah, I was all for it. We need to have more kids, we need to have an opportunity to do that, and I thought this was the right thing to do.”But then when he was pressed on whether the ruling would negatively affect people who are trying to have conceive, Tuberville said: “Well, that’s, that’s for another conversation. I think the big thing is right now, you protect – you go back to the situation and try to work it out to where it’s best for everybody. I mean, that’s what – that’s what the whole abortion issue is about.”As a result of the ruling in question in Alabama, at least three IVF providers in the state have suspended services.“That’s a hard one,” Tuberville said when asked about IVF availability in Alabama. “It really is.”Tuberville said: “I’d have to look at what they’re agreeing to and not agreeing to. I haven’t seen that.”But he said that it was “unfortunate” if the women would not be denied the procedure.Tuberville’s spokesperson Hannah Eddins later sought to clarify the senator’s remarks, saying he had been “emphasizing his support for life at all stages”.“In addition to being pro-life and believing life begins at conception, Senator Tuberville is also pro-family,” Eddins said. “He believes strong families are instrumental to our country’s success.”Eddins added that Tuberville was “in no way” supporting the decision by clinics to halt IVF procedures.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe Alabama court’s decision, released earlier this week, came in response to a lawsuit by a group of IVF patients whose frozen embryos were destroyed in December 2020 when a patient removed the embryos from a cryogenic storage unit and dropped them on the ground.With the ruling, Republican anti-abortion politicians are now in a bind between opposing abortion and supporting treatments that promote conception.Tuberville’s spokesperson said that the senator supported the US supreme court’s ruling that overturned the federal abortion right previously established by Roe v Wade. The court’s decision returned the issue of abortion rights back to individual states, many of which have outlawed the procedure in most cases.Tuberville’s remarks on Thursday came after his decision in December to end a months-long blockade of US military promotions over his opposition to a Pentagon policy that facilitates abortions for service members and dependents. More

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      New Orleans magician says he made AI Biden robocall for aide to challenger

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      A magician in New Orleans says he was the person who used artificial intelligence to create an audio recording of Joe Biden used in an infamous robocall and that he was paid by a consultant for the president’s primary challenger, Dean Phillips.NBC News reported Paul David Carpenter, who holds multiple world records and also works as a hypnotist, provided it with text messages, call logs and payment documentation to back up his claims.Carpenter claimed he was hired by Steve Kramer, a consultant for Phillips’s campaign, to use AI to mimic Biden’s voice discouraging people from voting in New Hampshire’s 23 January primary.“I created the audio used in the robocall [but] I did not distribute it,” Carpenter reportedly told NBC. “I was in a situation where someone offered me some money to do something and I did it.“There was no malicious intent. I didn’t know how it was going to be distributed.”The audio recording is currently under investigation by law enforcement officials, and prompted the US government to outlaw robocalls using AI-generated voices.Carpenter told NBC it was “so scary” how easy it was for him to produce the fake audio, saying it took less than 20 minutes and cost him $1. In return, he was paid $150, as documented in Venmo payments from Kramer and his father, Bruce Kramer, that Carpenter reportedly supplied to NBC.He also shared what he described as the original robocall audio file, which he manufactured with software from ElevenLabs, an AI firm that touts its ability to create a voice clone from existing speech samples.NBC said Kramer, a veteran political operative, did not comment on Carpenter’s version of events and would soon publish an opinion piece that would “explain all”.In a statement, Phillips’ campaign said it was “disgusted to learn that Mr Kramer is allegedly behind this call”.“If it is true that Mr Kramer had any involvement in the creation of deepfake robocalls, he did so of his own volition, which had nothing to do with our campaign,” said the campaign’s press secretary, Katie Dolan.“The fundamental notion of our campaign is the importance of competition, choice and democracy,” she added. “If the allegations are true, we absolutely denounce his actions.”Federal Election Commission records show that in December and January, the Phillips campaign paid nearly $260,000 to Kramer, who once worked on the 2020 presidential campaign for Ye, formerly known as Kanye West.NBC said it found no evidence to suggest the Minnesota congressman’s campaign had instructed Kramer to produce the audio or disseminate the robocall.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionCarpenter describes himself as a “digital nomad artist”, and perhaps his biggest previous claim to fame was setting the world records for fastest straitjacket escape and most fork bends in under a minute.“The only thing missing from the political circus is a magician, and here I am,” Carpenter joked.Carpenter has no fixed address but lists himself as a resident of New Orleans. Videos and images online show him in the streets of the city’s famed French Quarter neighborhood.New Hampshire authorities by 6 February issued cease-and-desist orders and subpoenas to two Texas companies believed to be linked to the robocall – Life Corporation, which investigators alleged was the robocall’s source, and Lingo Telecom, which they said transmitted it.After news of the robocall became known, the Federal Communications Commission ruled unanimously to either fine companies using AI voices in their calls or block any service providers that carry them.Phillips’ campaign has done little to affect Biden’s status as the presumptive Democratic nominee for November’s presidential election. On Thursday, the congressman floated the idea of running for the White House on a “unity ticket” with Nikki Haley, who was on track to lose the Republican primary to Biden’s presidential predecessor Donald Trump.Edward Helmore contributed reporting More

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      Trump warns of enemies ‘within our country’ to Christian media gathering

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      Donald Trump told a warmly receptive gathering of religious broadcasters on Thursday that “it’s the people from within our country that are more dangerous than the people outside”, in his latest effort to mobilize Christian fundamentalists who have swung dramatically behind him in recent years.Trump’s speech in Nashville, Tennessee, to the National Religious Broadcasters presidential forum gala offered him a chance to pitch himself to hundreds of Christian media figures whose approval – and willingness to carry his message on air – could drive huge turnout in November.“The greatest threat is not from the outside of our country – I really believe it is from within,” said Trump, whose fire-and-brimstone speech focused largely on his political enemies. “It’s the people from within our country that are more dangerous than the people outside.”The former president’s relationship with the religious right has shifted since his unlikely bid for the presidency in 2016, when his campaign was met with deep skepticism from conservative Christian leaders who had initially thrown their support behind Ted Cruz.Trump has since consolidated support among Christian fundamentalists. In 2016, in exchange for the support of prominent conservative pastors, he offered them a direct hand in policymaking through an evangelical advisory board, giving rightwing Christian religious leaders unprecedented access to the White House.“In my first term I fought for Christians harder than any president has ever done before,” said Trump. “And I will fight even harder for Christians with four more years in the White House.”In his speech, Trump promised to create a new taskforce to counter “anti-Christian bias” by investigating “discrimination, harassment and persecution against Christians in America”. He vowed to appoint more conservative judges, reminded the audience of his decision to break with decades of international consensus and move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and assured them a future Trump administration would take particular aim at transgender people – for example, by endorsing policies to restrict access to gender-affirming healthcare.The event brought together key figures in the former president’s coalition, from the president of the Heritage Foundation to the hard-right former head of the Alliance Defending Freedom, Michael Harris.A non-profit and tax-exempt organization, National Religious Broadcasters (NRB) is prohibited from campaigning directly for any candidate for public office, a fact that its president, Troy Miller, mentioned during his opening remarks. Trump was nevertheless the star of the show, with speakers lavishing him with praise in an atmosphere similar to one of his campaign rallies.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“Appearing on a stage before Donald Trump is like opening for the king himself, George Strait,” said the Heritage Foundation’s president, Kevin Roberts, to laughter and applause. “If you do well, everyone will be very nice. If you do poorly, no one will remember anyway.”The event spotlighted the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, a “presidential transition project” that envisions reshaping the executive branch to maximize the president’s power. Many fear Trump’s first acts should he win office would be to enact revenge on his political enemies, deport immigrants en masse and roll back legal protections for LGBTQ+ people.It also highlighted the central role that Christian fundamentalism would play in Trump’s second term in office, with Miller declaring: “One of the most dangerous falsehoods spread today is the separation of church and state.” More

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      Nikki Haley battles steep odds and Trump taunts in home state primary

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      Standing before a large crowd outside a waterfront hotel in Georgetown, Nikki Haley confronted the question that many Republicans in her “sweet” home state of South Carolina – and across the country – have asked: why is she still running for president?“I don’t care about a political future. If I did, I would have been out by now,” she said. “I’m doing this for my kids. I’m doing this for your kids and your grandkids.”Haley is the last candidate standing between Donald Trump and the Republican nomination he expects to wrap up within weeks.But her path forward is vanishingly thin, after successive losses to Trump in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, followed by a stinging defeat in Nevada’s non-binding Republican primary in which, despite being the only major candidate on the ballot, Haley finished a distant second to the option labeled “none of these”.On Saturday, she is bracing for another rebuke, this time at the hands of the very Republican voters who once elevated her to the governor’s mansion. A Suffolk University/USA Today poll released this week of likely South Carolina Republican primary voters showed Trump trouncing Haley by a margin of nearly 2 to 1, 63% to 35%.But Haley has made clear that she has no intention of conceding the nomination – not yet anyway.Arguing that Americans deserve better than a general election contest between the 77-year-old former president facing 91 criminal indictments and Joe Biden, the deeply unpopular 81-year-old incumbent cruising to his party’s nomination, Haley is asking supporters to stand behind her long-shot bid.“It’s not normal to pay campaign contributions towards personal court cases. It’s not normal to side with a thug over the allies who’ve worked to protect us,” Haley said in Georgetown, referencing Trump’s latest legal travails and his threat to Nato member states. “None of this is normal, and that’s what we need to have back. Our kids deserve to know what normal feels like again.”There is no precedent for the kind of come-from-behind victory Haley would have to pull off to win her party’s nod. But she has a history of surprising the political establishment.In her first run for public office, Haley, then an accountant, upset a nearly 30-year incumbent to win a seat in the state legislature. Years later, she bested a field of better-known Republicans to win the party’s gubernatorial primary and become the first woman and the first person of color elected governor of South Carolina. She was handily re-elected four years later.A year ago, Haley’s entrance into the presidential race was treated as an afterthought, with polls barely registering her support. But she outlasted Trump’s other rivals, leaving, as she likes to say, just “one fella left” to beat.“You never count Nikki Haley out. You just don’t,” said Dave Wilson, an unaffiliated Republican strategist in South Carolina. “There is always some sort of political trick or maneuver up her sleeve that makes you go, ‘I just never saw that one coming.’”View image in fullscreenHaley’s refusal to drop out and “kiss the ring” – and nearly all of Trump’s former Republican rivals have – has turned her once again into something of a political outsider in a party that once counted her among its brightest rising stars.The daughter of Indian immigrants, Haley rose to national prominence as a Tea Party conservative. But as Trump has sought to cast Haley as a “liberal”, Haley has found herself defending her track record of championing rightwing causes, including her support for voter ID laws, tough immigration measures and anti-abortion restrictions.But in the Trump era, loyalty to the former president often matters more than conservative policy positions and on the former, Haley’s record is more complicated.Haley insists she wants nothing from Trump, whose attacks on her have become uglier and more personal the longer she stays in the race. Though she was generally reluctant to criticize Trump for much of the early stages of the campaign, she has sharpened her rhetoric since it became a two-person race. Their intensifying rivalry has all-but quelled speculation that she was gunning for vice-president or a role in his cabinet.“I have no fear of Trump’s retribution. I’m not looking for anything from him,” Haley said in a speech from Greenville earlier this week, in which she outlined why she wasn’t departing the race.She hammered Trump for being “too chicken” to debate her and for spending “more time in courtrooms than on the campaign trail”. She now frequently criticizes his mental acuity, recalling an episode in which he confused her with the former Democratic House speaker Nancy Pelosi. At one event in South Carolina, her team handed out mental competency tests.Haley said Trump had gotten “meaner and more offensive by the day” accusing him of “trying to bully me and anyone who supports me”. Using his derisive nickname “birdbrain” to refer to her, Trump has claimed that he only selected Haley to be his United Nations ambassador as a political favor to Henry McMaster, a political ally and her second-in-command who became governor when she left the post to serve in his administration.He also questioned her husband’s absence on the campaign trail — “What happened to her husband? What happened to her husband? Where is he? He’s gone!” (Maj Michael Haley is serving a one-year deployment in Africa with the South Carolina national guard.)Trump’s web of legal cases, related to his role in the January 6 attack on Congress and his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, among other charges, has so far only soldered Republicans to his cause. But it remains unclear how voters would react if he is convicted. A judge last week handed him a crushing $355m-plus-interest legal penalty that threatens his personal finances and his business empire, while his campaign relies on donations to cover his mounting legal fees.“What if all of these legal issues take Trump out of contention?” Wilson said. “Or what if all of these legal issues make it clear to voters in later states that there needs to be an alternative?”All of the uncertainty fueled speculation that Haley may be looking ahead, either to the party’s summer convention where she would be an obvious stand-in in the extraordinary event Trump is no longer a viable nominee, or even further down the line to 2028, when she could mount another bid for the White House.View image in fullscreen“Since she became Governor Nikki Haley has always had ambitions to be president,” said Danielle Vinson, a political science professor at Furman University in Greenville, South Carolina, who has observed Haley’s political rise from scrappy outsider to UN ambassador.After spending nearly a year warning Republicans that Trump is an electoral loser for the party, Haley’s case for the nomination would be even stronger in 2024 if Biden defeats him, Vinson said. “She’s then the one who looks very smart, and can go, ‘uh-huh, I told you so,’ but in a nice, polite way with a smile on her face.”For now, Vinson said, Haley has little to lose by staying in the race. “As long as she has the money to keep going,” she said, “this is giving her a chance to meet voters in a lot of key states.”Though Haley is wanting in delegates – the coin of the realm in party nomination politics – she is flush with cash. Despite her long odds, well-heeled donors keep giving to her campaign and her allied Super Pac.In January, Haley outraised Trump for the first time, taking in more than $11m compared with his $8.8m. And though Haley insists she is no leader of the anti-Trump resistance, her team has capitalized on donors eager to see her take him on.When Trump threatened that Haley donors would be “permanently barred” from his world, her campaign slapped the phrase on T-shirts. Supporters snapped them up – she boasted earlier this month that her team had already sold 20,000 – while top donors continue to finance her long-shot bid. Her campaign also trolled Trump’s latest fundraising gambit – Trump-branded gold high tops – with an image of a pair of running shoes emblazoned with the Russian flag.Trump and his allies have dismissed Haley as a sideshow, steamrolling her campaign as he moves aggressively to assume control of the Republican National Committee, which is supposed to remain neutral in the presidential primary election.With the RNC chair, Ronna McDaniel, widely expected to step down after the South Carolina primary, Trump announced his plans to install his daughter-in-law Lara Trump and his campaign’s senior adviser Chris LaCivita in top leadership roles.View image in fullscreenIn a memo this week, LaCivita argued that the results of the first several contests “sent an unmistaken message: Nikki Haley doesn’t represent Republicans any more than Joe Biden does”. He then predicted that Trump will have accrued enough delegates to sew up the nomination by 19 March at the absolute latest, and probably even earlier.Even with its diminishing odds, Haley’s campaign has served as a welcome reminder for some that orthodox Republicans still exist despite Trump’s best efforts to purge them.The death this week of the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in an Arctic prison after being jailed by Russia’s autocratic leader, Vladimir Putin, was a stark reminder of that contrast between Haley’s faith in American alliances and Trump’s isolationism.Trump, whose conciliatory posture toward Putin has long rattled America’s allies, waited days to address Navalny’s death, which Biden and western leaders have blamed on the Kremlin leader. When he did, he compared his legal travails to the circumstances that led to Navany’s imprisonment.“It is a form of Navalny,” Trump said during a Fox News town hall in Greenville this week. “It is a form of communism, of fascism.”Haley by contrast has been unequivocal. “We have to remember Russia is not our friend,” Haley said days earlier, during her own Fox News-sponsored town hall in Columbia. “Donald Trump needs to answer whether he believes Putin is responsible for Navalny.”Haley has also been a strong supporter of Ukraine, unlike Trump, who has whipped his allies on Capitol Hill to oppose funding for the democratic nation as it seeks to repel Russian forces from its territory.But with the Republican base squarely behind the former president, Haley is left to scrounge for votes among a disparate coalition of independents, anti-Trump Republicans and, where permitted, even Democrats like Chris Richardson.Richardson voted against Haley when she ran for governor and when she ran for re-election. But on Saturday he will cast his ballot for the Republican he calls a “patriot” and views, alongside Biden, as a last line of defense for American democracy.“Nikki Haley and I disagree on virtually everything. But the one thing that we agree on is really the most important thing and that’s democracy,” said Richardson, a senior adviser for PrimaryPivot, a group urging Democrats and independents in states where they can participate in the Republican primary to vote for Haley as a way to stop Trump from winning the nomination.According to Richardson, there were 400,000 South Carolinians who voted in the state Democratic primary in 2020 who did not turn out for the party’s contest earlier this month and are therefore eligible to vote in the Republican primary. The group is also targeting voters in Colorado, Michigan and elsewhere.“The way I see it, we have two more votes to stand for democracy. Nikki Haley is one firewall and Joe Biden will be the other,” he said. “But if the firewall of Nikki Haley falls, then obviously it’s all on Joe Biden and I would rather it not come down to that because to me that feels very much like a gamble for democracy.”View image in fullscreenYet the fact remains that Haley cannot win the Republican nomination without winning Republican voters. History – and convention – provides little hope for presidential candidates who lose their home states.Asked in an interview what it would take for Haley to upset Trump in the South Carolina primary, her immediate predecessor, the former governor Mark Sanford, replied: “A meteor strike.”And so Haley will plod ahead. On Sunday, a day after the South Carolina vote, she plans to hold a campaign rally in Troy, Michigan, before beginning a sprint through several of the more than a dozen Super Tuesday states that will vote on 5 March.Hope remains among Haley’s most ardent supporters, who say they’re sticking with her until the end.“She seems like a voice for the future,” said Trish Mooney, a 60-year-old voter from Georgetown. “And it’s about time that we had a strong woman candidate that’s really smart and willing to have the courage to put themselves out there.”George Chidi contributed reporting from Atlanta More

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      Will Trump abandon Ukraine if he wins in November? – podcast

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      Two years ago this weekend, Russia invaded Ukraine. Two weeks ago, Donald Trump admitted that he would encourage Russia to ‘do whatever the hell they want’ to the US’s Nato allies, if they did not meet Trump’s demand to ‘pay their fair share’ of Nato funding. He also compared himself to the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny when discussing one of his many legal woes. All the while, the military aid package passed by the Senate last week, which includes $60bn for Ukraine, has stalled in the House of Representatives.
      So how worried should the US’s allies be about a second Trump presidency? What happens if the Republican party’s isolationist streak becomes the policy of the entire US? And in the meantime, how can Biden protect Ukraine when Congress refuses to act?
      Jonathan Freedland discusses these questions with Susan Glasser of The New Yorker

      How to listen to podcasts: everything you need to know More

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      Ex-FBI informant charged with lying about Bidens arrested again

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      The former FBI informant who is charged with lying about a multimillion-dollar bribery scheme involving Joe Biden’s family was again taken into custody in Las Vegas, two days after a judge released him, his attorneys said.Alexander Smirnov was arrested during a meeting on Thursday morning at his lawyers’ offices in downtown Las Vegas. The arrest came after prosecutors appealed the judge’s ruling allowing 43-year-old Smirnov, who holds dual US-Israeli citizenship, to be released with a GPS monitor ahead of trial. He is charged with making a false statement and creating a false and fictitious record.Attorneys David Chesnoff and Richard Schonfeld said in a statement that they have requested an immediate hearing on his detention and will again push for his release. They said Smirnov, who claims to have links to Russian intelligence, was taken into custody on a warrant issued in California for the same charges.Smirnov was first arrested last week in Las Vegas, where he now lives, while returning from overseas. A spokesman for justice department special counsel David Weiss, who is prosecuting Smirnov, confirmed that Smirnov had been arrested again, but did not have additional comment.Prosecutors say Smirnov falsely told his FBI handler that executives from the Ukrainian energy company Burisma paid Joe and Hunter Biden $5m each around 2015. The claim became central to the Republican impeachment inquiry of President Biden in Congress.Smirnov has not entered a plea to the charges, but his lawyers have said their client is presumed innocent and they look forward to defending him at trial.As part of their push to keep him in custody, prosecutors said Smirnov told investigators after his arrest last week that “officials associated with Russian intelligence were involved in passing a story” about Hunter Biden. They said Smirnov’s self-reported contact with Russian officials was recent and extensive, and said he had planned to meet with foreign intelligence contacts during an upcoming trip abroad.US magistrate judge Daniel Albregts said on Tuesday that he was concerned about Smirnov’s access to money that prosecutors estimated to be around $6m, but noted that federal guidelines required him to fashion “the least restrictive conditions” ahead of trial. Smirnov was also ordered to stay in the area and surrender his passports.“Do not make a mockery out of me,” Albregts said to Smirnov, warning that he’d be placed back into the federal government’s custody if he violated any of his conditions. His lawyers say he had been “fully compliant” with his release conditions.Prosecutors quickly appealed to US district judge Otis D Wright in California.“The circumstances of the offenses charged – that Smirnov lied to his FBI handler after a 10-year relationship where the two spoke nearly every day – means that Smirnov cannot be trusted to provide truthful information to pretrial services,” prosecutors wrote in court documents.“The effects of Smirnov’s false statements and fabricated information continue to be felt to this day. Now the personal stakes for Smirnov are even higher. His freedom is on the line.”Smirnov had been an informant for more than a decade when he made the explosive allegations about the Bidens in June 2020, after “expressing bias” about Joe Biden as a presidential candidate, prosecutors said.But Smirnov had only routine business dealings with Burisma starting in 2017, according to court documents. No evidence has emerged that Joe Biden acted corruptly or accepted bribes in his current role or previous office as vice president.While his identity wasn’t publicly known before the indictment, Smirnov’s claims have played a major part in the Republican effort in Congress to investigate the president and his family, and helped spark what is now a House impeachment inquiry into Biden. Republicans pursuing investigations of the Bidens demanded the FBI release the unredacted form documenting the unverified allegations, though they acknowledged they couldn’t confirm if they were true.Democrats called for an end to the investigation after the Smirnov indictment came down last week, while Republicans distanced the inquiry from his claims and said they would continue to “follow the facts.”Smirnov’s lawyers say he has been living in Las Vegas for two years with his longtime girlfriend and requires treatment and daily medications for “significant medical issues related to his eyes”. He lived in California for 16 years prior to moving to Nevada. More