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      Thursday briefing: Trump puts global tariffs on pause – but hikes them for China

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      Good morning. Two main pieces of news from Donald Trump yesterday: he has rolled back water efficiency standards to “make America’s showers great again”, because he likes “to take a nice shower to take care of my beautiful hair”; and he has rolled back the exorbitant tariffs he applied to many countries last week to 10% – but increased them for China. “No longer will showerheads be weak and worthless,” the White House said. This will come as welcome news for the many investors who have recently been taking a bath.It was a pretty chaotic change, all told: there were contradictory messages from Trump’s advisers on which countries would be affected, why he did it, and what Beijing should expect to happen next. Still, the markets breathed a large sigh of relief, and the S&P 500 had one of the strongest days of its postwar history. This morning, share indices in Asia have jumped in turn.But that still isn’t enough to undo the full damage that Trump’s hot-and-cold tariff policy has inflicted on the American and global economy – and only a fool would presume that a more settled approach is now a given. For the very latest, head to the business live blog; today’s newsletter explains what’s going on, and whether the reversal is a sign of strength or weakness. Here are the headlines.Five big stories

      Gaza | Israeli aircraft struck a residential block in war-ravaged northern Gaza on Wednesday, killing at least 23 people, including eight women and eight children health officials said, as the Israeli military is reportedly preparing to seize the entire city of Rafah.

      Trade | The UK and India have agreed 90% of their free trade agreement, businesses were told on a call with negotiators this week. There are hopes the UK government will succeed in finalising a highly coveted trade deal with India, a booming economy of 1.4 billion people, this year.

      Smartphones | Almost all schools in England have banned mobile phone use by pupils, according to a survey run by Rachel de Souza, the children’s commissioner for England. Among 15,000 schools, 99.8% of primaries and 90% of secondaries have some form of ban.

      Defence | Hot weather is expected to bring highs of 24C to the UK as fire services continue to warn of wildfires across the country. The Met Office said temperatures would peak on Friday in London and south-east England, which could make it the hottest day of the year so far, while temperatures could hit 23C on Thursday.

      BBC | A controversial sculpture outside the BBC’s headquarters has been restored and put back on display behind a screen after being vandalised, with the corporation saying it in no way condoned the “abusive behaviour” of its creator, Eric Gill. There have long been calls for Gill’s works to be removed since his diaries revealed he had sexually abused his two eldest daughters.
      In depth: ‘THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!’View image in fullscreenAt 9.37am Eastern Time, Donald Trump advised his followers with an appetite for speculation: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” Less than four hours later, in what Treasury secretary Scott Bessent magnificently described as “one of the most extraordinary Truth posts of his Presidency,” he announced the rollback of his tariff policy, and the market duly soared. Is it insider trading if your source is the president?Anyway, as the dust settled, traders kept buying. That was claimed as a major victory by Trump: “It’s up almost 2,500 points,” he said. “Nobody’s ever heard of it. It’s got to be a record.” But the reality is that the mood of uncertainty he has created will not easily be dispelled.What does the US tariff regime look like now?With the caveat that this is liable to change at any moment even though everyone in the White House is now asleep, here’s where things now stand: China’s tariff was raised to 125%, which means – given an existing 25% tariff – that some goods are now subject to an additional 150% rate. That is massively up on the 34% Trump announced last week. With a new 84% tariff in response yesterday, Trump again said that Beijing has been “ripping off the USA”. Every other country which saw its tariff raised above the baseline 10% in Trump’s “liberation day” announcement has seen the rate dialled back to that 10%. So no change for the UK; a very significant change for Vietnam (46%), India (26%), the European Union (20%), and the Falkland Islands (41%), whose 3,600 residents can now resume selling Americans frozen fish. Trump initially claimed that this was because more than 75 countries, of 190 affected, had sought to negotiate a deal without retaliating. The higher tariffs are paused for 90 days, and could be reimposed or increased again. There was some confusion over what would happen to Mexico and Canada, whose tariffs were not included in the announcement last week because they had already been set as high as 25% on a large proportion of their exports. Scott Bessent said the 10% rate would apply to them too; the White House later contradicted him and said that their tariffs would remain unchanged.Where does this leave China?In truth, the new announcement doesn’t change much. With tariffs that high, Trump might as well set them to a gazillion per cent and demand every import comes with a free Fabergé egg: the additional rate will make a minimal difference, because hardly anyone will be exporting anything from China to the US. The World Trade Organization forecast yesterday that trade between the two countries could drop by 80%, or $466bn a year.So is the goal to tank the Chinese economy, or to force China to negotiate? That was unclear yesterday. Bessent praised Trump for “goading China into a bad position” so that they “showed themselves to the world to be the bad actor”. That would seem to imply the tank strategy. But Trump himself took a much sunnier line later on: he told reporters that president Xi Jinping “is a smart guy and we’ll end up making a very good deal.”It is certainly plausible that the two sides will eventually arrive at some figure that both can present as a victory domestically. But as Amy Hawkins writes in this piece, that is unlikely to be on the basis of a major Chinese retreat. That is partly because Chinese exports to the US are largely consumer goods, badly exposed to eye-watering price increases, while the goods going the other way are commodities whose expense can be at least somewhat absorbed before they reach the consumer market.What about the UK?In one sense, the UK is exactly where it started: because it was already on the lowest 10% rate, nothing has changed. On the other hand, the fact that 10% is now the same rate as almost everyone else erases the comparative advantage that has been presented as a bright side.Speaking to ITV before the latest announcement, Keir Starmer reiterated that “a trade war is in nobody’s interest” but that retaliatory measures remained on the table. He also acknowledged that it was impossible to know if the 10% will ever be removed. In this piece, Rowena Mason reports that Whitehall sources are “increasingly downbeat” about striking a deal to reduce the tariffs.Why did Trump do it?That depends on who you ask. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt implied that the change was part of a long-term strategy, saying that reporters had “clearly missed the art of the deal” and “failed to see what President Trump is doing here”. Bessent claimed similarly that this had been Trump’s “strategy all along”. And Trump advisor Stephen Miller claimed it was “the greatest economic master strategy from an American president in history”.But those confident assertions looked a bit shakier when Trump himself emerged to speak to reporters and said that he was acting in a “flexible” way, and that he reacted because “people … were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid”. He also said that “A lot of times it’s not a negotiation until it is”, so make of that what you will. As for what he does next: that will be based on “instinct”, he said.The economist Mohamed El-Erian suggested that Trump was responding above all to a major sell-off in US government debt, a dangerous sign of investor scepticism of the US since its bonds are generally viewed as a safe harbour in an economic storm. The New York Times reports that Bessent and other advisors emphasised the issue in a meeting with Trump yesterday morning. But if you concluded that Trump may just as easily have made a capricious choice based on no serious rationale at all, you wouldn’t sound like an idiot.Where does this leave the markets – and the wider global economic outlook?In the context of the last week, this was a euphoric day for traders. The S&P 500 rose 9.5%, its biggest single-day climb since 2008; 494 of the 500 stocks covered ended higher than they began. One index of the improving mood was Goldman Sachs’ decision to rescind their recession forecast within hours of making it. Overnight, Asian markets have also climbed, and futures – a way to bet on prices ahead of markets opening – were up for European stocks and the FTSE 100.On the other hand, the S&P 500 is still down a significant 11.2% on where it was in February – and 10% universal tariffs are still a really big deal. Bob Elliott, a prominent hedge fund manager, said the market response was “likely far too positive” and noted that when taken alongside the Chinese rate and sector-specific rates elsewhere, the effective overall rate on imports is closer to 20%. That is only down 5% on where it stood before Trump’s announcement, and higher than it has been since the 1930s.The China tariffs alone could lead to a long term reduction in global GDP by nearly 7%, the WTO estimated. And when the dust settles, many companies will still be deeply sceptical that they can count on the kind of stability that tends to promote investment, new hiring, and economic growth.For now, the next questions are whether deals start to be struck, and whether improving share prices are the start of a sustained recovery or merely a “relief rally”. Jake Schurmeier, a portfolio manager at Harbor Capital Advisors, told Bloomberg: “Good news doesn’t eliminate the overarching uncertainty. We [will] likely go higher for a few days, but I think permanent damage has been done.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionWhat else we’ve been readingView image in fullscreen

      Richard Wright (above) once painted 47,000 stars on the ceiling of Amsterdam’s Rijksmuseum. Charlotte Higgins talks to the Turner prize-winning artist about his gorgeous, insanely intricate work – which he describes as “torture”. Alex Needham, acting head of newsletters

      Amazon’s prestige drama about Jesus Christ, The Chosen, claims to have reached 280 million viewers – and it’s just the tip of the holy iceberg. Steve Rose has a great piece about how the Messiah became TV and box office gold. Archie

      Could New York ever have a democratic socialist mayor? The city’s residents could, in the unlikely event they vote for Zohran Mamdani. He’s offering a rent freeze, free buses and universal childcare. For Interview magazine, 18 New Yorkers grill him. Alex

      Alice Wilkinson has lived in eight houseshares, and has the stories to show for it. They are compulsively readable, especially the one about the housemate who stole all the cutlery. Archie

      The speed of Trump’s transformation (or degradation) of America has been breathtaking. Osita Nwanevu steps back and surveys the epic scale of the damage: “Humiliation, immiseration, chaos and more of all to come.” Alex
      SportView image in fullscreenFootball | A late goal for Nuno Mendes (above) gave Paris St-Germain a two-goal cushion in their Champions League quarter-final tie against Aston Villa. The 3-1 victory in the first leg came despite Morgan Rogers’ 35th minute opener for the visitors. In the night’s other first leg match, Barcelona beat Dortmund 4-0.Football | Liverpool are increasingly confident Mohamed Salah will sign a contract extension beyond this summer after progress in talks over recent weeks. It is a significant boost with the captain, Virgil van Dijk, also likely to extend his stay beyond June.The boat race | The bad blood between Oxford and Cambridge continues to fester in the buildup to Sunday’s University Boat Race, with fallout from the row over a ban on PGCE students competing leading to the abandonment of the women’s trial race on Wednesday morning.The front pagesView image in fullscreenTrump’s 90-day pause on tariffs dominate the front pages today. The Guardian splashes on “Trump pauses global trade war but hits China with 125% tariffs”, the Times leads with “Trump puts the brakes on tariffs for 90 days” and the Daily Telegraph has “Trump blinks first in trade war”. The FT is going with “Stocks soar as Trump presses tariffs pause button and hits China harder”, the Mail leads with “Trump blinks … but doubles down on China” and the Metro has “Trump risks the great maul of China”. In the Mirror, it’s “Great War of China”.In the Express, it’s “Kemi: PM must make more of our Brexit freedoms.” And the Sun runs with a story about Chelsea footballer Moises Caicedo allegedly driving without a licence, and “Police in swoop on £115m Chelsea ace”.Today in FocusView image in fullscreenRats, rubbish and rising taxes: why Birmingham stinks right nowWhy have the city’s bin collectors gone on strike? Jessica Murray reportsCartoon of the day | Ben JenningsView image in fullscreenThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badView image in fullscreenMetuktire, a village in the Indigenous Capoto-Jarina territory in the Brazilian Amazon , stands as a stronghold against logging and mining in the rainforest. The village has preserved its traditional ways while embracing sustainable energy through solar panels.The community actively resists illegal intrusion by patrolling their territory and educating younger generations on environmental protection. They maintain their customs, such as harvesting cassava, while adopting modern conveniences such as mobile phones and solar panels (pictured above).Chief Beptok Metuktire remains a beacon of resilience fiercely defending the local heritage. “We have had goldminers and outsiders who wanted to occupy our lands,” he says. “We show them that this is our territory.”Bored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

      Quick crossword

      Cryptic crossword

      Wordiply More

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      in US Politics

      Trump threatens additional 50% tariffs on China over retaliatory levies

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      Donald Trump has threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on imports from China on Wednesday unless the country rescinds its retaliatory tariffs on the United States by Tuesday.The news comes on the third day of catastrophic market falls around the globe since Trump announced his trade war last Wednesday with tariffs on the US’s trading partners.As part of that move the White House announced it would impose a 34% tariff on Chinese imports. In response, Beijing announced a 34% tariff on US imports.In a statement on Truth Social on Monday morning, the US president said that China enacted the retaliatory tariffs despite his “warning that any country that Retaliates against the U.S. by issuing additional Tariffs” would be “immediately met with new and substantially higher Tariffs, over and above those initially set”.“If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th,” Trump wrote.“Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!” he added. “Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately.”China’s US embassy said on Monday it would not cave to pressure or threats over the additional 50% tariffs. “We have stressed more than once that pressuring or threatening China is not a right way to engage with us. China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,” Liu Pengyu, an embassy spokesman, told Agence France-Presse.A senior White House official told ABC News that the increased tariffs on China would be on top of the 34% reciprocal tariff Trump announced last week and the 20% already in place.Trump’s new ultimatum to China marked the latest escalation from the White House and came as US stocks swung in and out of the red on Monday morning as a report circulated that Trump was going to pause the implementation of his sweeping tariffs for 90 days, but then was quickly dismissed by the White House as “fake news”.Not long after Trump threatened China with additional tariffs on Monday morning, he participated in a White House visit from the Los Angeles Dodgers to celebrate their World Series title. More

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      Here’s one key thing you should know about Trump’s shock to the world economy: it could work | James Meadway

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      It’s less than a week since Donald Trump’s sensational announcement that he was unilaterally ending the world’s trading system with the imposition of a 10% minimum tariff for trading with the US – and a very much higher rate for those countries unfortunate enough to have the US as a major export partner. Long-term allies such as Japan and South Korea have been hammered with tariffs of around 25%, while export-dependent poorer countries such as Vietnam, which sells about a third of its exports to the US, have been hit with tariffs in excess of 45%. A further round of global debt crises is possible as heavily indebted countries face the sudden loss of export earnings.Global stock markets have tumbled as panicked investors dump shares, and political condemnation has been near-universal. China has already retaliated with 34% tariffs, threatening an escalating trade war. Right now, it looks and feels like disastrous overreach by a uniquely erratic administration at the behest of a president with a terrifyingly limited grasp of how the modern economy works.Trump has talked about imposing tariffs on the world since he first rose to prominence in the 1980s, when his target was Japan. In a political career notable for its jack-knifes in policy and direction, tariffs – “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” – have been a constant. But this is about far more than his long-cherished whims. However inconsistent or even confused Trump may sometimes appear to be, those around him have a clear-eyed view of what they want to achieve.His Treasury secretary, hedgefund billionaire Scott Bessent, has spoken of a “global economic reordering” that he intends to shape to the benefit of the US’s elite. Trump’s new chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran, wrote a lengthy paper, A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, shortly before his appointment. The latter is particularly ambitious – detailing how the US should use not only tariffs but also the threat of withdrawing its security support to compel its friends and allies to accept cuts in payments due from the Federal Reserve on their US Treasury bills. This would be a potentially massive loss to them, akin, in reality, to a US debt default. But it is tariffs that are the cutting edge of the plan – leveraging the US’s power as the world’s largest consumer and greatest debtor to compel other countries into a negotiation on terms.After decades winning in an international trading game it wrote and refereed the rules for, the US is now facing serious competition – primarily from China, but with Europe as an expensive irritant. The response of this administration is to kick over the table, and demand everyone starts again. What it ultimately wants is a cheaper dollar to revive US manufacturing and Chinese competition held off, all the while keeping the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. And the rest of the world will pay the price.There are precedents. In October 1979, Paul Volcker, newly appointed as chair of the Federal Reserve, drove up interest rates to a remarkable 13% in a bid to tackle inflation, later raising them to 17%. Soon the US was in recession. Millions lost their jobs over the next two years, notably in manufacturing, where soaring interest rates had driven up the value of the dollar, making US exports less affordable on the world market. After a light easing of interest rate hell by the Fed, Volcker applied a second dose of the medicine, driving interest rates up to 19% and forcing the economy back into a double-dip recession. Unemployment peaked at around 10% in late 1982.View image in fullscreenBut by mid-1983, inflation had come down to 2.5%. For the rest of the 1980s, the US economy boomed. The “Volcker shock” appeared to have worked. Volcker is today a folk hero among central bankers: Ben Bernanke, chair of the Federal Reserve during the 2008 crisis, praised Volcker’s “independence” and willingness to brazen out the political storm.More decisive than lower inflation, however, was the reshaping of the US economy Volcker’s interest-rate shock accelerated: with manufacturing in freefall, investment flooded into finance and property, firing up what became the great credit bubble of the 1990s and 2000s. The world economy was reordered around a US that acted as a giant sink for its output – swallowing exports from the rest of the world on seemingly limitless borrowing. China’s extraordinary boom was the flipside of US debt and deindustrialisation. The Volcker shock, more than any other single action, created the globalised world system that Trump is now bent on destroying.Few would have bet on Volcker’s world-shaping capacity at the time. The stock market response to the shock was immediate and unanimous. US shares plunged by a record 8% in the two days after his announcement. The S&P 500 lost 27% of its value before August 1982 – two years of grinding decline. Manufacturers and unions hated it, understandably: they were on the wrong side of an epochal reconfiguration of US capitalism. But they were not the only losers: rising interest rates in the US meant less developed countries had to spend more on servicing debts, just as recession squeezed their major export markets. The result was the so-called “third world” debt crisis, as heavily indebted countries across the global south plunged into spirals of economic decline and soaring indebtedness.Over the weekend, Bessent and commerce secretary Howard Lutnick were doing the media rounds, insisting that there would be no climbdown on the tariffs. Trump is not for turning on what is clearly for him a personal crusade. Already, countries such as Vietnam are promising to cut all their tariffs on US goods – a clear and brutal demonstration of the US’s continuing economic power. The administration has claimed 50 other countries have also asked to open negotiations. By the end of the week, expect Trump to be triumphantly announcing more such concessions from economies in the global south. His real target – China – will be a far tougher nut to crack, if it breaks at all.Perhaps the rolling market chaos will become too much. Perhaps the administration will blink first. There is no guarantee this extraordinary gamble will work, not even for those in the clique around Trump. But it would be a mistake to assume it cannot work – and however the pieces now land, they will not return to their old places.

      James Meadway is the host of the podcast Macrodose More

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      Trump’s tariffs may be perilous for small, heavily indebted countries in global south

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      “This is very messed up. If Trump wants Cambodia to import more American goods: look, we are just a very small country!”Khun Tharo works to promote human rights in the Cambodian garment sector, which employs about 1 million people – many of them women.“I think they are very concerned about their jobs, and I think they are very concerned about their monthly pay cheque. And that has significant effects on the livelihoods of their dependent family,” says Tharo, programme manager at the Centre for Alliance of Labor and Human Rights (CENTRAL), a Cambodian workers’ rights organisation.One of the most wilfully destructive aspects of Donald Trump’s shock and awe trade policy is the imposition of punitive tariffs on developing countries across Asia, including rates of 49% for Cambodia, 37% for Bangladesh, 48% for Laos.For decades Washington had championed economic development through trade. Now, at the same time as slashing overseas aid budgets and retreating from its role in supporting developing nations, it is ripping up that idea entirely.In its place, Trump intends to impose his will on the US’s trading partners. Some are all but powerless to exact concessions, given their small size, and dependence on the mighty American market. Cambodia hastily offered to cut tariffs on US goods on Friday, in a bid to propitiate Washington.Contrary to Trump’s bombast about the US being “pillaged”, the tariffs are not in any sense “reciprocal”.Instead, they relate to the size of the US goods trade deficit with each country, and the value of its exports. (Side note: the 10% paid by the UK has nothing to do with Labour’s negotiating flair – it just came out of the fact that Britain buys about as much stuff from the US as it sells the other way).Ironically, many of the countries in the global south hit by Trump had benefited from preferential schemes offering low or zero tariffs, precisely because building up exporting capacity is an accepted path to development.Alice Oyaro, the chief executive at the charity Transform Trade, which works with producers in some of the worst-hit countries, says: “Our biggest concern is that the additional costs are pushed down to those in the supply chain who are least able to pay. Small farmers exporting everything from green beans to cocoa, and women workers in Bangladeshi factories are already finding it hard to make ends meet. They will see their incomes squeezed even more.”Tiny Sri Lanka, which has an economy 0.3% of the size of the US’s, faces a 44% tariff despite being bailed out by the International Monetary Fund two years ago and continuing to negotiate debt restructuring deals with its creditors.“It’s a highly vulnerable situation,” says Ajith D Perera, the chair of the Asia Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA) Chamber of Commerce and Industry. “Sri Lanka will lose export income and see a hit to GDP and employment – and that comes at a time when it is just coming out of bankruptcy.”He fears the scale of the tariffs could compromise Sri Lanka’s ability to meet the conditions of the IMF bailout deal. Trade is meant to be a key prop for growth, as it rebuilds its shattered economy.“I think the fundamentals have been challenged by the US decision,” he says. “25% of Sri Lanka’s exports go to the US and 70% of that is garments. I think the government needs to start discussions with the IMF immediately.”As his warning suggests, there is a risk that a grim side-effect of Trump’s trade war will be to exacerbate the debt crises already hitting heavily indebted poorer nations.Even countries that have escaped the most punitive tariff rates could still be hit hard if the prospect of a global downturn depresses the value of the commodity exports on which many rely.Keir Starmer and other leaders of the developed world have been preoccupied with their own domestic responses since Wednesday’s bombshell briefing in the White House Rose Garden.But the severity of the probable impact for the global south calls for a concerted approach, too – albeit one that will have to bypassWashington.Most of the hardest-hit countries can already trade tariff-free with major markets under projects such as the EU’s Everything But Arms programme and the UK’s Developing Countries Trading Scheme, which are designed to help the poorest nations to develop through trade.But if Trump’s tariffs stick, multinational brands focused on the US are likely to switch production rapidly to countries hit with lower rates. One garment buyer in India told me on Friday she was already hearing of factory owners in Bangladesh being told by US brands that they would now be manufacturing their sweaters in Peru, which has a rate of just 10%.The social dislocation in some of these hardest-hit economies could be profound, if such rapid shifts result in mass layoffs.And the case for debt write-offs, already clear, may become all the more pressing, if the resulting the looming global downturn sweeps vulnerable countries over the edge.The fact that the British government’s deep cuts to the aid budget now sit alongside a probable global economic downturn and heavy US penalties for exporters in developing countries makes that decision all the more shameful.Back in Cambodia, Tharo says: “The industry right now seems to be in a little bit of a hectic situation. The government is also extremely worried because they are not seeing any alternative markets at the moment. And we don’t have significant goods to be exported to any other country.“Trump doesn’t care,” he sighs. More

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      Asian countries riven by war and disaster face some of steepest Trump tariffs

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      Developing nations in south-east Asia, including wartorn and earthquake-hit Myanmar, and several African nations are among the trading partners facing the highest tariffs set by Donald Trump.Upending decades of US trade policy and threatening to unleash a global trade war, the US president announced a raft of tariffs on Wednesday that he said were designed to stop the US economy from being “cheated”.“This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history,” said Trump on Wednesday. “It’s our declaration of economic independence.”He hailed the moment as “liberation day”, but the tariffs are likely to be met with loud protests from some of the world’s weakest economies. One expert said Trump was likely to be targeting countries that received investment from China, regardless of the situation in that country. Chinese manufacturers have previously relocated to countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia not only due to lower operating costs, but also to avoid tariffs.The tariffs come as many countries in south-east Asia are already grappling with the fallout from the cuts to USAID, which provides humanitarian assistance to a region vulnerable to natural disasters and support for pro-democracy activists battling repressive regimes.Cambodia, a developing economy where 17.8% of the population live below the poverty line, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), is the worst-hit country in the region with a tariff rate of 49%. More than half of the country’s factories are reportedly Chinese-owned, with the countries exports dominated by garments and footwear.Next worse-hit is the landlocked south-east Asian nation of Laos, a country heavily bombed by the US during the cold war, with 48%. According to the ADB, Laos has a poverty rate of 18.3%.Not far behind is Vietnam with 46% and Myanmar, a nation reeling from a devastating earthquake on Friday, and years of civil war following a 2021 military coup, with 44%.Indonesia, the biggest economy in south-east Asia, faces a 32% tariff rate, while Thailand, the second-largest, has been hit with a rate of 36%.Major US rival and trading partner China has been hit with a 34% reciprocal tariff, on top of the 20% levy already imposed.Dr Siwage Dharma Negara, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said the tariffs on south-east Asian nations were intended to hurt China.“The administration thinks that by targeting these countries they can target Chinese investment in countries like Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Indonesia. By targeting their products maybe it will affect Chinese exports and the economy,” he said.“The real target is China but the real impact on those countries will be quite significant because this investment creates jobs and export revenue.”Tariffs on countries such as Indonesia, he said, would be counterproductive for the US, and the detail of how they would be applied remained unclear.“Some garments and footwear [companies] are American brands like Nike, or Adidas, US companies that have factories in Indonesia. Will they face the same tariffs as well?” he said.Stephen Olson, a former US trade negotiator, said countries in south-east Asia would be forced to reconsider their relationships with Washington. “A closer tilt towards China could be the result. It’s hard to have constructive, productive relations with a country that has just dropped a ton of bricks on your head,” said Olson, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.“The world’s largest importer has now essentially hung a sign on its border saying ‘closed for business’,” he added. “We are now faced with two plausible scenarios: Either the impacted trade partners hold firm and retaliate in the hope that Trump will be forced to back down, or they look to cut deals with Trump in order to avoid the tariffs. It is unlikely that either scenario will end well.”Other nations among the hardest hit are several nations in Africa, including Lesotho – a country that Trump claimed “nobody has ever heard of” – with 50%, Madagascar with 47% and Botswana with 37%. Lesotho, a small mountainous kingdom surrounded by South Africa, has the second-highest level of HIV infection of the world, with almost one in four adults HIV-positive.In south Asia, Sri Lanka is facing a 44% tariff. In Europe, Serbia faces a 37% rate.In addition to the reciprocal tariffs on a few dozen countries, Trump will impose a 10% universal tariff on all imported goods. That tariff will go into effect on 5 April, while the reciprocal tariffs will begin on 9 April.The US president has justified the changes by saying they are retribution for countries that have long “cheated” America, and the levies will bring jobs back to the US.But economists have warned the sweeping changes will raise costs, threaten jobs, slow growth and isolate the US from a system of global trade it pioneered, and furthered over several decades.“This is how you sabotage the world’s economic engine while claiming to supercharge it,” said Nigel Green, the CEO of global financial advisory deVere Group.“The reality is stark: these tariffs will push prices higher on thousands of everyday goods – from phones to food – and that will fuel inflation at a time when it is already uncomfortably persistent.” More

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      in US Politics

      US allies worldwide decry Trump’s car tariffs and threaten retaliation

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      Governments from Tokyo to Berlin and Ottawa to Paris have voiced sharp criticism of Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on car imports, with several of the US’s staunchest long-term allies threatening retaliatory action.Trump announced on Wednesday that he would impose a 25% tariff on cars and car parts shipped to the US from 3 April in a move experts have predicted is likely to depress production, drive up prices and fuel a global trade war.The US imported almost $475bn (£367bn) worth of cars last year, mostly from Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Canada and Germany. European carmakers alone sold more than 750,000 vehicles to American drivers.France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, said on Thursday he had told his US counterpart that tariffs were not a good idea. They “disrupt value chains, create an inflationary effect and destroy jobs. So it’s not good for the US or European economies,” he said.Paris would work with the European Commission on a response intended to get Trump to reconsider, he said. Officials in Berlin also stressed that the commission would defend free trade as the foundation of the EU’s prosperity.Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, bluntly described Trump’s decision as wrong, and said Washington appeared to have “chosen a path at whose end lie only losers, since tariffs and isolation hurt prosperity, for everyone”.France’s finance minister, Eric Lombard, called the US president’s plan “very bad news” and said the EU would be forced to raise its own tariffs. His German counterpart, Robert Habeck, promised a “firm EU response”. “We will not take this lying down,” he said.Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, said Europe would approach the US with common sense but “not on our knees”. Good transatlantic relations are “a strategic matter” and must survive more than one prime minister and one president, he said.The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, described the move as “bad for businesses, worse for consumers” because “tariffs are taxes”. She said the bloc would continue to seek negotiated solutions while protecting its economic interests.The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, said the tariffs were “very concerning” and that his government would be “pragmatic and clear-eyed” in response. The UK “does not want a trade war, but it’s important we keep all options on the table”, he said.His Canadian counterpart, Mark Carney, said on social media: “We will get through this crisis, and we will build a stronger, more resilient economy.”Carney later told a press conference that his administration would wait until next week to respond to the new US threat of tariffs, and that nothing was off the table regarding possible countermeasures.He would, he added, speak to provincial premiers and business leaders on Friday to discuss a coordinated response.“It doesn’t make sense when there’s a series of US initiatives that are going to come in relatively rapid succession to respond to each of them. We’re going to know a lot more in a week, and we will respond then,” he said.One option for Canada is to impose excise duties on exports of oil, potash and other commodities. “Nothing is off the table to defend our workers and our country,” said Carney, who added that the old economic and security relationship between Canada and the US was over.South Korea said it would put in place a full emergency response to Trump’s proposed measures by April.China’s foreign ministry said the US approach violated World Trade Organization rules and was “not conducive to solving its own problems”. Its spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, said: “No country’s development and prosperity are achieved by imposing tariffs.”The Japanese prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, said Tokyo was putting “all options on the table”. Japan “makes the largest amount of investment to the US, so we wonder if it makes sense for [Washington] to apply uniform tariffs to all countries”, he said.Reuters and Agence-France Presse contributed to this report More

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      Tariffs can help US workers. But Trump’s doing them all wrong | Dustin Guastella

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      In the run-up to the 2024 election, a lot of people were ringing alarms about Donald Trump’s tariffs. Kamala Harris called Trump’s policies a “tax on the American people” and warned of sky-high prices. According to the Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, they are “very bad for America and for the world”. His fellow Nobel laureate Paul Krugman called them “small, ugly, and stupid”. More recently, the whirlwind tariff drama of the past two months – first a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, then a 30-day “pause” on that policy, a plan to raise tariffs on steel, aluminum and agricultural goods, plus an across the board tariff hike on China – has generated yet more frenzied debate about the danger of tariffs.Observers aren’t wrong to criticize the US president’s policies. His proposed tariffs seem unlikely to improve what ails the US economy. Worse, applying tariffs as broadly as he’s proposed, and without any supplementary industrial strategy, does risk needlessly raising prices while acting like a big corporate giveaway. Yet, despite what elite economists say, tariffs can be sound, and progressive, economic policy.In fact, liberals might be surprised to learn that during his administration Joe Biden actually raised the highest tariffs in recent American history: a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. Why? Because tariffs work.Tariffs are, simply put, taxes on certain imported goods, paid by the importer. The goal is to make foreign products more expensive than their Made-In-USA counterparts. This is why people refer to tariffs as “walls” that help “protect” domestic industry from global competition. Right now, China quickly and efficiently produces fleets of electric vehicles that are – thanks to the low cost of Chinese labor – a lot cheaper than the EVs made in the United States. Without tariffs, it would be impossible for US-made models to compete. Since making electric cars was a big goal for Biden, his administration raised an eye-watering tariff that would double the price of any Chinese-made import.The EV example is useful because it demonstrates the difference between Biden’s tariff policies and Trump’s.Trump has, for the most part, not focused on raising tariffs on particular imported goods but instead on all goods coming from certain countries. Mexico and Canada face across-the-board tariffs; China was already facing 10% tariffs, doubling to 20%. But raising the prices of all products from these countries doesn’t help develop any particular line of US manufacturing. Tariffs like these are both too broad and too small to make a positive impact. A 20% tariff on all Chinese goods might make it more expensive for Americans to continue to buy certain things from China. But nothing in that policy encourages Americans to buy American-made products; they might just as well find a Vietnamese supplier to avoid the tariff while continuing to reap the benefits of cheap labor. Moreover, it’s possible that some Chinese manufacturers will simply eat the additional costs and sell their goods at slightly slimmer profit margins. Or, equally likely, they will try to avoid the tariffs by having other companies assemble their products in neighboring countries before sending them to the US. As is, Trump’s country-based tariffs seem more like a geopolitical tool than an economic one. Frankly, they don’t make much sense if the goal is to bring factories home.Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs are closer to the mark. By making all steel imports (regardless of national origin) subject to the same tariff, the policy could succeed in making US steel comparatively cheaper for domestic buyers.View image in fullscreenYet even this wouldn’t make US steel bigger or better, or make its production more efficient. Nor would it necessarily raise the wages of steel workers. Pure and simple protectionism will benefit existing US steel manufacturers, but no one much beyond that. Without the government stepping in to develop new manufacturing – encouraging the adoption of the latest techniques to make a superior product, actively building new demand for American steel, or providing social guarantees for steel workers – tariffs alone risk protecting a sick industry without much upside.So what would a labor-forward tariff program look like? It would combine tariffs with big investments in infrastructure to help steer industry, and the country, into better economic health.For steel, such a fix isn’t hard to imagine. The US benefits from being a continental-sized country, with hundreds of thousands of bridges, school buildings, libraries, miles of rail and highway. All of those things are made with steel. And all of them are falling apart. Major new investments in infrastructure upgrades would provide the tariff-protected steel industry the new demand needed to grow, and provide the requisite scale for industrial dynamism.In exchange, steel firms should be required to provide family-sustaining wages and benefits, and promise to stay neutral in union elections. Not only this, but the government should have some say in actually directing the production process. New steel plants should be built in places that need jobs, not isolated tax-free industrial parks, but in the very same areas that were obliterated by deindustrialization. That is, production should be directed, first and foremost, toward public use and social ends.Some might wonder: why bother with such an expensive experiment?Manufacturing is still a huge part of the US economy and it is among the only sectors that consistently provides high wages for a large base of workers. Protecting that industrial foundation is essential not only for those workers, but for the health of other sectors too. When a factory closes, it’s not just the high-wage blue-collar workers who are thrown out of jobs. So are all the middle-income truck drivers who deliver the goods. And all the high-skilled mechanics who fix the machines. Not to mention the servers and cooks who staff now empty local restaurants. The only businesses that grow in the wake of a factory closing are those related to opioids and alcohol.Since Nafta was signed, tens of thousands of factories have closed in the US. Millions of largely union jobs have been lost. This fact alone explains so much of the populist revolt against globalization. And while it’s unlikely that we could ever return to the industrial output of 1946, is it that hard to imagine returning to 1994? If Pearl Jam is still making albums, can’t the US still make steel?Rebuilding our manufacturing capacity will be a big part of building a better country. And tariffs – deployed wisely with big investments – are an indispensable tool for doing so.

      Dustin Guastella is a research associate at the Center for Working Class Politics and the director of operations for Teamsters Local 623 More

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      China and Canada retaliate after Trump trade tariffs come into effect

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      China and Canada unveiled retaliatory measures against the US after Donald Trump imposed his sweeping tariffs plan at midnight US time, despite warnings it could spark an escalating trade war.US tariffs have come into force of 25% against goods from Canada and Mexico, the US’s two biggest trading partners, and 20% tariffs against China – doubling the levy on China from last month.The duties will affect more than $918bn-worth (£722bn) of US imports from Canada and Mexico.China on Tuesday said it would impose fresh tariffs on a range of agricultural imports from the US next week. Its finance ministry said additional 15% tariffs would be imposed on chicken, wheat, corn and cotton, with further 10% tariffs on sorghum, soya beans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products.The Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, said Ottawa would respond with immediate 25% tariffs on C$30bn-worth ($20.7bn) of US imports. He said previously that Canada would target US beer, wine, bourbon, home appliances and Florida orange juice.Tariffs will be placed on another C$125bn ($86.2bn) of US goods if Trump’s tariffs were still in place in 21 days.“Tariffs will disrupt an incredibly successful trading relationship,” Trudeau said, adding that they would violate the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement signed by Trump during his first term.Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, was expected to announce her response on Tuesday morning, the country’s economy ministry said.Asian markets were down – after sharp falls in US markets on Monday – as Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, Taiwan’s benchmark TWII index was off 0.5% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.$%.The Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso fell to their lowest levels in a month on Tuesday.In Europe, the FTSE 100 dropped by 57 points, or 0.65%, at the start of trading to 8,813 points, a day after rising more than 8,900 points for the first time. France’s CAC 40 fell 0.9% and Spain’s Ibex was down 0.8%.Trump and his allies claim that higher tariffs on US imports from across the world will help make America great again by enabling it to obtain political and economic concessions from allies and rivals on the global stage.Businesses, inside the US and worldwide, have warned of widespread disruption if the Trump administration pushes ahead with this strategy.Since winning November’s presidential election, the president has focused on China, Canada and Mexico, threatening the three markets with steep duties on their exports unless they reduced the “unacceptable” levels of illegal drugs crossing into the US.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionWhile he slapped a 10% tariff on China last month, Trump has repeatedly delayed the imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The president has pledged to bring down prices in the US, but economists have warned that consumers in the country could be aversely affected by his trade plans.A 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico and a 10% levy on China would amount to “the largest tax increase in at least a generation”, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a thinktank, which estimated such a move would cost the typical US household more than $1,200 each year.Trump has vowed to go further, threatening to introduce “reciprocal” tariffs on countries that have their own duties on goods made in the US. He has said these will come into effect as soon as next month.China’s finance ministry said in a statement: “The US’s unilateral tariff increase damages the multilateral trading system, increases the burden on US companies and consumers, and undermines the foundation of economic and trade cooperation between China and the US.”The ministry said products shipped from the US to China that departed before 10 March and arrived before 12 April would not be subject to the tariffs.Trump has said the tariffs on China are because the government has failed to stop illicit fentanyl entering the US, which Beijing says is a “pretext” to threaten China.“China opposes this move and will do what is necessary to firmly safeguard its legitimate interests,” a foreign ministry spokesperson, Lin Jian, said.Chris Weston, an analyst at the brokerage Pepperstone, said: “Market anxiety levels have been dialled up, and we see traders having to react aggressively and dynamically to the deluge of headlines and social posts confirming that tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada are to be implemented in full and as threatened.” More