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      Trumpism will persist until we rekindle faith in people’s ability to reshape the world | Jeff Sparrow

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      About 70% of Republicans apparently believe the 2020 presidential election to have been neither free nor fair.That’s a big chunk of voters rejecting, on entirely bogus grounds, the legitimacy of the new president.And it’s not the first time either.From 2011, Donald Trump engendered support for his own tilt at the White House by questioning the legality of the Obama presidency. He built his political career upon the embrace of “birtherism”, a racist conspiracy that emerged during the election of 2008.Back then, rightwing blogs and talk radio shows claimed Obama was not a “natural-born citizen of the US”, and thus ineligible for office under Article Two of the constitution.A Harris Poll in 2010 found an astonishing 25% of respondents questioned Obama’s right to serve, as the birthers tried to persuade electoral college voters, the supreme court and members of the college to block his certification.More than any other figure, Trump brought that rejection of Obama’s legitimacy into the mainstream.“If he wasn’t born in this country, which is a real possibility …” he told NBC’s Today Show in 2011, “then he has pulled one of the great cons in the history of politics.”For the Tea Party movement and the Republican fringe, birtherism underpinned a rightwing conviction that Obama’s presidency represented a kind of coup.You don’t need to cry fraud to explain recent presidential electionsMind you, after the 2016 election, a significant proportion of Democrats thought the same about Trump’s victory.As David Greenberg notes, Hillary Clinton, Jimmy Carter and John Lewis were among those who publicly labelled Trump “illegitimate”, elected only as the result of Russian meddling. Some Democrats blamed Vladimir Putin for the WikiLeaks release of the Podesta emails or suggested Russian social bots fixed the outcome; others falsely claimed that voting booths had been rigged or that Trump was in fact a “Manchurian candidate” employed in Putin’s service.For such people, Trump wasn’t merely an odious, rightwing demagogue. He was also an impostor, whose presence in the Oval Office signified systemic institutional failure.The refusal by Trump’s supporters to accept the 2020 result as genuine didn’t then come entirely from nowhere. Indeed, it’s been a long time since partisans of a defeated presidential candidate haven’t denounced the process that allowed their opponent to win.Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised.For years, surveys have revealed a massive and ongoing decline in trust in basic institutions, including those associated with democracy.In early 2020, for instance, the communications firm Edelman polled 34,000 people in 28 countries for its Trust Barometer report. It found a tremendous decrease in the public’s respect for institutions, with almost everywhere “government and media … perceived as both incompetent and unethical”.Fifty-seven percent of those surveyed believed the media to be “contaminated with untrustworthy information” and 66% did not expect government leaders “to successfully address our country’s challenges”.Even in Australia, one of the wealthiest and most secure nations in the world, more than half of people polled saw the system as failing them, and a large majority no longer possessed confidence in the media.We might think this cynicism would favour progressives, given the left’s longstanding critique of institutional power.But it’s not as simple as that.Obama won office because George W Bush had plunged America into permanent, unpopular wars. Trump triumphed in 2016 because he faced a weak opponent; he lost in 2020 when his response to Covid-19 revealed his utter ineptitude.In other words, you don’t need to cry fraud to explain recent presidential elections. You can understand the outcomes easily enough in terms of decisions by voters.But only if you acknowledge voters’ ability to make such decisions.Conspiracy theories proceed on an entirely different basis. They present ordinary people as gulls, the perpetual dupes of power; they suggest events unfold, always and everywhere, according to the will of hidden string pullers.Rather than asking why their candidate didn’t appeal to electors, the conspiracist looks for external manipulation – implicitly accepting that only the elite can make history.In different circumstances, a widespread cynicism about the existing institutions might propel a movement to deepen and widen participation in political affairs. Right now, however, it seems to be linked to a prevailing pessimism about democratic agency, one that can all too easily provide openings for authoritarian demagogues.Joe Biden takes office as the embodiment of American business-as-usual. Despite polling far more votes than Trump, he remains the ultimate insider, associated with many of the most consistently hated policies in recent years (from the Iraq war, which he championed, to mass incarceration, which he helped initiate).Not surprisingly, if you survey rightwing social media, you can see the new argument cohering at a frightening speed, with more and more accounts claiming that Biden was illegitimately foisted on honest Americans by a nefarious elite. Far-right agitators, many of whom had long since given up on Trump, have embraced the #stopthesteal campaign with enthusiasm, with the upcoming Million Maga march potentially bringing together motley white nationalist and fascist groups in what looks very much like an attempted reprise of the Charlottesville Unite the Right rally.Just as Trump’s rise inspired imitators elsewhere, we should expect the right’s narrative to spread internationally. Already, baseless allegations of electoral fraud have been echoed by Australian politicians – and it’s still early days yet.Trump might be gone but, until we can rekindle faith in ordinary people’s ability to reshape the world, Trumpism will remain very much with us. More

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      It's not 'Trump derangement syndrome' to see that the US has to be good before it is great | Nick Bhasin

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      When Joe Biden was declared the winner of the US election over the weekend, I joined millions of my fellow Americans in their relief. The nightmare of the past four years was over. Donald Trump was done. I couldn’t be there in person but I retweeted a couple of things and hugged my family.
      But after an exhausting election week – “North Carolina’s blue, now it’s red, wait only 17 people in the state have voted, what is happening?!” – the question remains …
      How was it this close?
      How did millions of Americans look at four years of lying, spreading disinformation, exacerbating racial tensions, and downplaying and mismanaging a pandemic and say “more”?
      Turns out a quarter of a million dead from Covid just wasn’t that big a deal. Child separation? Not a problem. Democrats chose a compassionate, moderate, old white guy so no one would be scared off by identity politics and spooky “socialist” policies and 71 million people STILL said, “Nope. Give us the rich guy who’s in a lot of debt and pays no taxes and says that caravans of immigrants and thugs and animals will ruin our lives.”
      2016 wasn’t a fluke. It was an entrée. More people voted for Trump this time, and he increased his support among minorities if you believe exit polls, which I don’t because the polls – and the punditry based on them – were useless. They promised a decisive victory for Biden but Trump’s strategy of combining D-grade celebrity charisma and appealing to people’s basest instincts worked.
      As the famous saying goes, “Ask not what your country can do for you, but how your country can entertain you with a dark, ugly spectacle filled with chaos and emptiness.”
      In May of 2008, I met an American woman in Sydney who’d been living in the UK. She was a Harry Potter fan (always suspicious for an adult) and insisted that she’d never move back to the US because “that place is f**ked”.
      I was furious. I had just moved to Sydney and I wasn’t ready to throw my home country under the bus.
      Then in 2016 Donald Trump was elected president.
      Living abroad for the last 13 years has helped me appreciate the great things about my country (I’m also an Australian citizen). They were things I took for granted when I lived there – the energy and diversity of the cities, the geographical beauty, the Mexican food.
      But the flaws seem much, much worse. The mass shootings (that’s not a problem here); the lack of universal healthcare (we’ve got it); the climate change denialism (um … no comment); treating asylum seekers like criminals (no, Australia isn’t perfect). There’s something about American ideology that won’t allow these problems to be fixed or even convincingly addressed.
      The Trump administration wrapped up all of this and more into a bigoted package for its supporters – Trump never tried to be the president for the whole country – and stuck a big middle finger up to the rest of the world, which laughed in return. I’ve been living among the laughers. It’s not a good feeling.
      In four years of low points, one of the most personally wounding came in July of 2019, when Trump suggested that four progressive congresswomen (all women of colour, three US-born) go back to where they came from.
      With this classic battle cry for bigots, Trump and his supporters (including the Republican party – only four of their members joined the Democrats’ official rebuke) made it clear that I, the son of an immigrant from India and a Puerto Rican from New York, was not welcome. My family was not welcome.
      One of those congresswomen, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, was forced to remind the children of America that: “No matter what the president says, this country belongs to you. And it belongs to everyone.”
      For a lot of my country, those hurt feelings made me a snowflake crying lib tears. I had “Trump derangement syndrome”. I was taking him too seriously and literally – the President of the GD United States.
      I know we’re not supposed to focus on identity politics and cultural issues, but it’s episodes like this that make Kamala Harris’s ascension resonate. The first female vice-president. The first black vice-president. The first Indian vice-president. Not only do we belong. We can be in charge.
      Barring some catastrophe before 14 December, when election results are certified, America will try to move forward. Trump will do his best to make sure the transition proceeds with zero dignity for him or the country – he still hasn’t conceded and his 300 desperate lawsuits are still going forward, though many have been dismissed.
      But the damage he’s done will stay with us for some time. Republicans complicit in the degradation of the country’s character who kowtowed to Trump were re-elected. A QAnon believer will join Congress, as well as a certain other representative who relishes owning the libs.
      As most of the rest of world already knew, the myth of America as an incorruptible force for good in the world was due for dismantling. So in that sense, maybe Donald Trump has done the US a favour in showing us just how “normal” America is, no better than other countries that elect authoritarian populists with delusions of grandeur who encourage fear.
      And if we accept that, maybe we can start to make practical changes that help people and convince them that popular policies labelled as socialist by the right aren’t scary. Maybe we can start to dismantle another American myth – that everyone is better off on their own, free to get rich or sink into destitution. Maybe 2021 can be the beginning of a new era, when we acknowledge that we have to be good before we can be great.
      The 2020 election didn’t deliver the enormous repudiation America needed. It showed us how deeply divided we are. But a win is a win. Most of the country made the moral choice not to be represented by selfishness and hatred. And for now, that’s a reason to hope that America is a little less f**ked.
      • Nick Bhasin is a writer and editor. Follow him at @nickbhasin More

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      in US Politics

      Scott Morrison congratulates Joe Biden on US election win and flags Australian visit in 2021

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      Scott Morrison has signalled he would invite Joe Biden to visit Australia for the 70th anniversary of the Anzus treaty in 2021 as he congratulated the Democrat for winning the US presidential election.
      Morrison told reporters that Canberra would continue to deal with the Trump administration during the transition period but looked forward to working with Biden from January.
      The Australian prime minister described the former vice-president in the Obama administration as possessing a “deep understanding” of national security issues, including the importance of the post-war alliance to ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. The Anzus treaty between Australia, New Zealand and the United States was signed in September 1951.
      “I look forward to inviting the president-elect to join us next year … and for us to be able to celebrate 70 years of peace and stability and security that has been established by this incredible relationship,” Morrison told reporters on Sunday.
      “This is a profound time, not just for the United States, but for our partnership and the world more broadly and I look forward to forging a great partnership in the spirit of the relationships that has always existed between prime ministers of Australia and presidents of the United States.”
      Biden’s election will increase diplomatic pressure on Australia to step up its commitments on climate change.
      The incoming president has promised that America will rejoin the Paris agreement and will reach net zero emissions by 2050. Biden has also signalled he will take steps to reinvigorate global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
      Morrison has been emphasising that Australia will take a technological approach to emissions reduction, and the Coalition is thus far resisting pressure to sign up to a net zero commitment by mid-century despite being a signatory to the Paris agreement.
      While some in the Liberal party feel the Coalition needs to turn the page on the climate wars the National party will resist moves to increase ambition around abatement.
      Asked about Biden’s commitment to net zero, Morrison said Australia was a signatory to the Paris agreement “and that is something we hold fast to”.
      “We have a strong story to tell about our achievement when it comes to commitments on the global stage,” he told reporters.
      “I also particularly welcome the comments that were made during the campaign by vice president Biden, at the time, when he showed a lot of similarity to Australia’s views on how technology can be used to address the lower emissions challenge.
      “We want to see global emissions fall and it’s not enough for us to meet our commitments – we need to have the transformational technologies that are scalable and affordable for the developing world as well because that is where all the emissions increases are coming from in the decade ahead in the next 20 years.”
      Trump, who was on the golf course when the news broke that he was to be a one-term president, has not yet conceded defeat and is continuing to make unsubstantiated claims casting doubt over the legitimacy of the process.
      But world leaders have lined up to congratulate the president-elect and his running mate, Kamala Harris.
      In a statement issued ahead of his remarks in Sydney, the Australian prime minister said: “Today, the world faces many challenges, including managing the Covid-19 pandemic, on both a health and economic front, ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific region, and peace and stability.”
      “American leadership is indispensable to meeting these challenges and upholding the rules, norms and standards of our international community,” Morrison said.
      “We also look forward to working with president-elect Biden and his administration to continue to fight the Covid-19 global pandemic and recession, to develop a vaccine, drive a global economic recovery, and develop new technologies to reduce global emissions as we practically confront the challenge of climate change.
      “We welcome the president-elect’s commitment to multilateral institutions and strengthening democracies.”

      Scott Morrison
      (@ScottMorrisonMP)
      Congratulations to @joebiden and @kamalaharris – Australia wishes you every success in office. The Australia-US Alliance is deep and enduring, and built on shared values. I look forward to working with you closely as we face the world’s many challenges together.

      November 7, 2020

      With Biden’s victory projected, Malcolm Turnbull, the former Australian prime minister who famously tussled with Trump early in his presidency about the US refugee swap deal, kept his reaction on Twitter succinct.

      Malcolm Turnbull
      (@TurnbullMalcolm)
      Congratulations Joe Biden and Kamala Harris! What a relief that you won. 🙏🙏🙏

      November 7, 2020

      He later told ABC TV that Biden’s win would mean a return to “normal transmission” with the US administration no longer making decisions by “wild tweets” in the early hours of the morning.
      Morrison, who forged a constructive relationship with Trump, on Sunday morning noted Australia had enjoyed “a strong working relationship with the current administration, one that has seen the strength of our alliance continue to grow and deepen”.
      [embedded content]
      He said Australia would “continue to work closely with president Trump and his administration in the transition period between now and 20 January”.
      The projected result overnight was also welcomed by the Labor opposition leader Anthony Albanese.

      Anthony Albanese
      (@AlboMP)
      Congratulations to @JoeBiden and @KamalaHarris on a victory delivered with record support with a progressive agenda based on decency, honest government, creating opportunity and dealing with the pandemic and the challenge of climate change

      November 7, 2020

      Albanese said: “The US alliance has been our most important partnership since WW2 and your commitment to leadership will see this strengthened into the future.”
      The Labor leader later told reporters that Biden was “a friend of Australia” and he welcomed America’s imminent return to the Paris accord and multilateral institutions.
      After Trump last week falsely claimed victory in the presidential election and flagged supreme court action to truncate the count, Labor declared American voters deserved to have their voices heard. The shadow foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, said the democratic process needed to be respected “even when it takes time”.
      On Sunday morning Australian time, Trump was still claiming without evidence that Republican observers were blocked from scrutineering in counting rooms. In a capitalised tweet he said: “I won the election”. Twitter flagged the statement with a note that: “This claim about election fraud is disputed.”
      Albanese said on Sunday it was critical that the outgoing administration respected democratic principles. “The other thing that needs to happen – and this is the context here – is that Scott Morrison needs to dissociate himself … from government members who are questioning the democratic process and continue to do so.”
      “The fact is that these conspiracy theories do nothing to advance our common interest of standing up for democratic values,” Albanese said. More

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      Joe Biden’s move to net zero emissions will leave Australia in the (coal) dust | Bill Hare

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      The election of Joe Biden to the White House is likely to see Australia increasingly isolated as the world heads to net zero emissions, with quite fundamental implications for our economy. Let’s have a look at what has happened in the last two months.In September, the European Union proposed increasing its 2030 target from 40% to at least 55% reduction below 1990 levels in order to meet the net zero by 2050 target it adopted in 2019. Critically, the EU has made climate action one of its three main Covid-19 response priorities, so that at least 30% of its multi-annual budget and recovery fund is to be spent on achieving its increased 2030 emission reduction targets and its climate neutrality goal for 2050. These new goals for the EU27 would bring its domestic emissions very close to a 1.5°C Paris compatible level for the period to 2050. The UK has similar goals and ambitions to the EU27.Shortly afterwards, President Xi Jinping announced that China would “aim to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060”, the first time China has acknowledged the need to reach anything close to zero CO2 emissions by mid-century. If it covers all greenhouse gas emissions it would also be very close to what is needed by mid-century to be in line with the Paris agreement’s long-term goal. If this goal covers CO2 only, then China would need to achieve carbon neutrality around 2050 for this to be compatible with the Paris agreement.With China responsible for about a quarter of the world’s emissions, a move to net zero by mid-century has very significant implications for global temperature, lowering the Climate Action Tracker’s end of century projections by 0.2-0.3oC towards 2.4-2.5oC, compared with the previous 2.7oC projection.In October, both Japan and South Korea also announced net zero GHG goals for 2050. Japan’s prime minister, Yoshihide Suga, announced Japan would aim for net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 with several specific measures, including a fundamental revision of its policy on coal-fired power plants. In an important change to Japan’s narrative, Suga emphasised the benefits to economic growth from the net zero commitment, whereas he’d previously characterised it as a cost.Getting to net zero essentially means the phasing out of coal, gas and oilThis was followed two days later by the South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, announcing his commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, replacing coal power generation with renewable energy to create new markets, industries and jobs.Taken together, these four countries account for about 40% of global GHG emissions. There is also a large number of smaller countries with comparable net zero emissions commitments that would bring the total global coverage to about 48% of global emissions.What’s notable about all of these announcements is that they were made in the absence of any commitment by the United States and before any US presidential election outcome. China’s announcement in particular seems to reflect a geopolitical judgement by the Chinese government that they intend to move forward with ambitious climate goals even without the US.Arguably, these moves by this set of countries on their own will generate a major global move towards increased ambition and towards net zero by 2050.So where does this leave Australia? These net zero by mid-century moves by its major export markets create huge challenges.In 2019 China, South Korea and Japan accounted for 72% by value of Australia’s exports of LNG and coal: 88% of Australia’s LNG exports; 75% of thermal coal exports; and 51% of metallurgical coal exports. It is notable that none of these countries have focused on natural gas and all have mentioned renewable energy and other technologies, and all recognise that early action on coal is needed.The election of Joe Biden could trip this already major momentum into a landslide towards higher climate ambition. His election means the US will re-enter the Paris agreement, reverse the Trump administration’s rollbacks and make a significant contribution to closing the Paris agreement’s ambition gap with a new 2030 target. If he took the initiative to reboot US action in line with his plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050, Biden could reduce US emissions substantially by 2030.If he is able to fully implement his proposed Energy and Climate Package, and continues to be supported by the existing strong sub-national action in the US, the US could significantly reduce its 2030 emissions, reducing the gap between where it is headed now and a Paris agreement-compatible emission range for that year.Even in the case of delays and challenges to federal action, the efforts of state and local actors, such as the We Are Still In campaign, are expected to continue. A recent study estimated that enhanced action by subnational actors in the US could reduce emissions by 37% below 2005 levels by 2030. Biden as US president may not have control of the Senate (although the vote count on this result is far from over – and may not be resolved until January), but there are workarounds.Biden also has a net zero 2050 goal, which will place the US close to a Paris agreement-compatible emissions pathway. This would further lower the 2100 projected warming by about 0.1°C, and further if America undertook negative emissions action of scale beyond 2050. So the EU, China, Japan, South Korea and the US – about two thirds of the global economy, about half the world’s emissions and close to 75% of our fossil fuel export markets –will have net zero goals for 2050 or shortly afterwards. This is a massive shift.Let there be no misunderstanding about what this means. Getting to net zero essentially means the phasing out of coal, gas and oil, with markets more or less halved by 2030. This is a seismic shift for Australia and it means that it’s very likely that demand for our coal and gas will drop at least as fast as it has risen in the past few decades.It would hardly be a strategy for Australia to follow Poland’s lead and simply start to stockpile coal in warehouses. Diplomatically, Australia will find itself increasingly isolated, even in its own region and in particular with its close Pacific Island neighbours, not to mention the two superpowers, China and the US.Australia needs a forward-looking strategy aimed at taking advantage of its massive natural advantages in renewable energy and the resources essential for the low and zero carbon transition, and one that provides for a just transition for the communities and workforces affected by the rapid reduction in the markets that they have hitherto dependent upon.There is no time to be lost dithering, denying and obfuscating.• Bill Hare, a physicist and climate scientist, is the managing director of Climate Analytics More

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      in US Politics

      A dysfunctional America helps China – but hurts Australia and our region | Natasha Kassam

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      As the US presidential election rolls into its fourth day of counting, Chinese leaders are not necessarily joining much of the world in frantically hitting refresh for updated vote tallies.
      As America edges towards a Biden victory in painful slow motion, there is no sense of urgency in Beijing, which benefits from the prolonged uncertainty.
      Chinese leaders – and many of its citizens – believe the United States is in terminal decline and that President Donald Trump has hastened the inevitable. The troubling story of decay in America paints a different picture in China from that in the rest of the world: the authoritarian model of politics and economics is just as good, if not better, than the liberal democratic model of the “west”.
      The coronavirus pandemic had already started the toppling dominos. China recovered from its disastrous response, wielding state capacity like an authoritarian sword to contain Covid-19. By contrast, the US has surrendered to the pandemic, tragically with a death toll 60 times that of China. The successes of democratic smaller nations, from Australia to Taiwan, barely register in Beijing.
      The four-day election count (so far) and divided polity are seen as further evidence of the wounds in US democracy. So too the increasingly erratic claims made by Trump that undermine US democratic institutions. These are chalked up as wins in Beijing’s column.
      More wins, from a Chinese perspective, are coming, and many in Australia’s immediate region. Beijing has threatened over $5bn exports from Australia. The issue has gained less traction than usual as eyes are glued to the circus that US politics has paraded for four years.
      China has also been extending olive branches across south-east Asia, providing technical assistance and protective equipment in the pandemic and attempting to repair the reputational hit that Covid-19 caused. Many have made deals with China guaranteeing preferential access if a Chinese vaccine candidate is approved.
      This vacuum was left by the US. When it comes to global public health, America has literally left the building. Ensnared in its own pandemic crisis, the world’s largest economy abandoned the World Health Organization. US allies are among the countries that China has promised priority access to vaccines, including the Philippines and Thailand.
      With the US missing in action, Australia has had to go it alone. Canberra has looked to counter China’s efforts, promising more than $500m in “vaccine diplomacy” across the region.
      China may struggle to find these opportunities if Biden is inaugurated. A globalist at heart, he has promised to reposition the US on the international stage and re-join the WHO. Australia should embrace that prospect.
      But for Beijing, the outcome of the US presidential election changes few of its policy settings. The Trump administration’s tough stance towards China is a rare glimpse of unity in a divided country.
      A potential Biden administration would continue to challenge China in most fields, including trade and technology. And any instinct by a potential president Biden to nominate Obama-era officials would need to get past the inevitable China-hawk test if the Republican-majority Senate remains.
      Tough China policy is also good politics in the US – as it is in Australia. Both Australian and American publics have soured on China as more evidence of China’s aggression and human rights abuses have come to light.
      One difference may be that a Biden administration would be better coordinated with partners and allies on China policy. Under Trump, US policy oscillated from praising Xi Jinping to attempting regime change. A stable and consultative approach would be music to Australia’s proverbial ears, as it faces the brunt of China’s economic coercion with little backup or support. Biden could also be convinced to revive the ailing World Trade Organization, though US concerns pre-dated Trump.
      Still, who wins the US election matters much more to Australia than China.
      A weaker United States, led by a president elected in a messy and marginal victory, would only make China more confident. And a new administration, distracted by domestic turmoil, may lack the bandwidth to wake up to the urgent support needed in Australia, and the broader region. A divided America may translate into an isolated Australia. And this, in turn, would embolden China.
      • Natasha Kassam is a research fellow at the Lowy Institute More

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      in US Politics

      Feeling powerless? How foreigners can survive the US election without complete nervous collapse | Van Badham

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      There are only 24 hours to go until the polls close on the American election. Which is surprising, because the campaign feels like it has been going for eleventy-million-billion years.Americans, at least, get to vote. For the rest of the world, the whole experience is like waking up in a cinema that only shows The Fast and the Furious movies, and all of the exits are sealed shut with cement.We’ve been stuck in here with loud noises, annoying characters and zero plot development for months, eating the curtains for food and desperately hoping it all comes to an end without actual loss of life. Or, you know, a massively increased prospect of nuclear war.What it’s like to be trapped in America’s version of that cinema right now is unimaginable. Circumstances suggest it’d involve a lot of audience members holding guns, cheers ringing out whenever stupid lines are delivered and way too much coughing for anyone to feel comfortable.Elections in other countries universally elicit two responses from those foreign to them: “She seems nice” or “That’s a worry.” Jacinda Ardern may have transformed New Zealand into the world’s idea of Magical Happy Hug Land, but in their last election how many internationals were furiously scanning weighted polling averages at 2am because Wairarapa seemed too close to call?Now, millions of us around the world recently sport what I call the “FiveThirtyEight Pallor” – a face-bound, sleepless waxiness that results from relentlessly refreshing US poll sites to see if there’s any projected movement in Maine’s second district. Vast hordes of non-farming, non-Americans now intimately familiar with the price of soybeans in Iowa is a terrifying symptom of these anxious times.Is there a way for powerless, poll-watching foreigners to get through the next 24 hours – and the aftermath – without complete nervous collapse? Probably not. But let’s delude ourselves into thinking that we can follow the below advice and go through this with a sense of calm.1. We must admit to ourselves we are powerless over the US, and to think otherwise will make our lives unmanageableAs much as you may want scream HOW CAN YOU VOTE FOR THIS LARGE ORANGE CLOWN to Americans visible on Twitter, don’t. This very publication is haunted by the failure of “Operation Clark County” back in 2004, where British Guardian readers wrote letters of persuasion to a swing district of American voters, requesting politely they not vote for George W Bush. “Real Americans aren’t interested in your pansy-ass, tea-sipping opinions” began one of the gentler replies.2. Prepare American-themed delicacies for the occasionIf you’re short on time, grab some traditional spray cheese-in-a-can or some Twinkies, but to really immerse yourself for the US election, follow the YouTube directions to whip up a Flamin’ Hot Cheeto Turkey with all the trimmings. Then, don’t eat this food; stare at it. Stare at the thick, plastic cheesiness. The sugary crustiness. The holy-god-how-is-any-of-this-still-legally-considered-food heart-endangering carbohydration of it all and ask yourself both a) does Britain really want a trade deal with these people? and b) is doing this to human food in any way culturally understandable to you? No. No, it isn’t. Do you think you can intuit their political choices now? No. No, you can’t.3. Don’t watch Fox News coverageThere are those who believe that Fox is some kind of foul, relentless rightwing propaganda hydra managed by a clan of vampiric undead that wilfully spreads lethal misinformation for fun. This is not true. It’s actually a sophisticated marketing operation for mass sales of anti-anxiety medication that no one needs until they watch one single uninterrupted minute of its programming. Save your money, and your cardiovascular health: avoid.4. Believe the polls: it’s not 2016 any moreThe 2016 election was a confluence of black swan events: an unpredictable Republican campaign, a polarising Democratic candidate, dark digital operations, WikiLeaks-dumped cache of stolen correspondence, and the FBI’s improbable decision to reopen the dead investigation into Clinton’s emails collided with outdated polling techniques. This year, poll techniques are updated, and as much as the Republicans are trying to make Hunter Biden’s laptop happen, it’s not going to happen.5. Don’t believe the polls, have you forgotten 2016?Remember the surety everyone had on election day morning that Clinton would be president by night-time and the tiny-pawed tangerine vagina-grabber would be left hustling for gigs on celebrity baking shows and charity golf events? By midnight we were coiled in foetal balls on the living room floor in shock, our cold hands begging for the comfort of a security blanket, or at least a wizard companion to guide us through a new, dark and terrifying realm.6. Vacuum the living room floor. Locate a security blanket. Order a wizardUS polling website Fivethirtyeight.com still gives the carrot-coloured super-spreader a 10% chance of victory.There’s one thing we know about The Fast and the Furious. Just when you think that the franchise is finally finished is when you’ll find out they’re making a sequel. More

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      in US Politics

      Where to watch US election day live results in Australia

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      It’s been dubbed the most important US presidential election in recent history – one everyone in the world, including Australians, will be watching with great anticipation.
      Held amid a historic pandemic that has claimed the lives of more than 220,000 Americans, and the most widespread civil rights protests in US history, this is an election that will define the course America takes.
      [embedded content]
      What will a Biden victory – who has vowed to take action on climate change – mean for Australia’s climate policy?
      What will a Trump victory mean for far right extremism, which has become a growing threat in Australia since his last election victory?
      How will either of them handle increasingly tense relations with our biggest trading partner, China, which has already placed Australian industries – such as barley and wine – in the crosshairs?
      A lot is at stake, not just for the US, but indeed for Australia, the Asia-Pacific region, and the entire world.
      Election day is Tuesday 3 November but for the Australians watching, most of the action will be taking place on Wednesday 4 November.
      So if you’re staying home or venturing out to a party, how and where can you watch the US election results live in Australia?
      Who will be televising it?
      Just like with past elections, Australian television stations will be holding special election day coverage. ABC TV, SBS, channels Seven, Nine and Ten will all be covering the election.
      The coverage begins at roughly 11am across the board, with ABC and Channel Seven starting earlier at 10am, and most going on until around 5.00pm.
      On cable, you’ll be able to watch rolling election coverage on BBC, CNN, Sky News, Fox News, and Al Jazeera English.
      Can I follow live results and commentary online?
      Of course there will be extensive coverage online.
      The Guardian will be running a liveblog covering the election throughout the day, in addition to the continued extensive US election coverage and will include a live results tracker.
      Major news broadcasters in the US such as NBC, ABC and CBS are expected to livestream their election coverage on YouTube, as they did in 2016.
      Traditional news publications such as the New York Times and the Washington Post, and digital platforms like Vice and Huffington Post, also held livestreams for election coverage in 2016.
      You’ll also be able to read live blogs at most major news platforms. The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, NBC News and Fox News will all be running a live blog on the night.
      Where are watch parties being held in my city?
      Adelaide
      Gilbert St Hotel, 88 Gilbert St, Adelaide.
      UniBar, Union House, Ground The University of Adelaide, Adelaide.
      Brisbane
      Pig & Whistle, Riverside Centre 123 Eagle St, Brisbane City.
      Canberra
      PJ O’Reilly’s, 52 Alinga St, Canberra.
      The Well, University of Canberra, 20 Telita St, Bruce.
      Melbourne
      Online watch party only.
      Perth
      The Windsor Hotel, 112 Mill Point Rd, South Perth.
      Sydney
      3 Wise Monkeys, 555 George St, Sydney.
      Cheers Sports Bar, 561 George Street, Sydney.
      CPAC, Doltone House, Darling Island, Pyrmont.
      There’s a relative dearth of election viewing parties this year, mostly due to the ongoing pandemic.
      Nonetheless, there are a couple of events being held across the country.
      Democrats Abroad, an official arm of the Democratic party, has organised watch parties across the country. In Brisbane, they’ll be at Pig & Whistle, in Sydney they’re at 3 Wise Monkeys, and in Canberra they’ll be at PJ O’Reilly’s. They’ll also be hosting parties in Adelaide and Perth, but unfortunately for Melburnians, they’ll be hosting an online watch party.
      A group of American expats in Sydney have also organised a bi-partisan watch party at Cheers bar, with the group encouraging people to “chuck a sickie” to join them.
      At the University of Canberra, a student group has organised a watch party at The Well. Similarly, students at the University of Adelaide have put together a watch party at the UniBar.
      Also in Adelaide, an election watch party is being hosted at the Gilbert St Hotel, with attendees encouraged to join up and cry “tears of joy or fear”.
      Finally, CPAC, Australia’s largest conservative conference, will be doubling up as a de facto election watch party. The initial allocation of tickets has been exhausted, although the conference is advertising a “standby” ticket if restrictions ease next week.
      What time will polls close in the US?
      Poll opening and closing times varies state-to-state, but they all open between 6am and 9am, and close between 7pm and 9pm local time.
      For Australians, that roughly translates to polls opening at 9pm AEST on 3 November and the latest poll, that being in Alaska, closing at 3pm AEST on 4 November.
      What are the key states to keep an eye on?
      Because of the presidential voting system, where a president is decided by how many electoral college votes they win, a handful of swing states will probably be where the election is won or lost.
      Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Iowa are the states you’ll need to keep an eye on, with a majority of them having flipped from supporting Obama to Trump in 2016.
      When will the victor be announced?
      Over 70 million Americans have already voted, more than half of the people who voted in 2016, with experts expecting a historic turnout.
      Counting begins on election day, which means that throughout the day, winners will be declared in each state once a candidate has a clear lead there, and results are usually declared on election day, by 10pm ET in the US.
      That means a winner would normally be declared between 1pm and 3pm on Wednesday. However, with so many people voting by mail, the result could potentially still be up in the air by the end of the day.
      The numbers of people voting by mail is unprecedented, and coupled with the challenges of holding an election during a pandemic, it could be anyone’s guess when we’ll formally get a victor. More

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      in US Politics

      Australians ask me what the mood is in the US. I say optimism, quickly smothered by dread | Chloe Angyal

      by

      In Iowa, lawn signs keep vanishing. They’ll be there in the front garden one night, red white and blue against the unnaturally lush suburban American green grass, advertising to drivers and dog walkers alike that the people inside want Joe Biden to be the next president of the United States. “Joe 2020.” “Unity over division, Biden-Harris 2020.” “Bye-Don.” And the next morning, they’re gone. One man got caught stealing a sign, and then got caught stealing the newspapers reporting what he’d done. (Trump signs have been stolen and vandalised too).
      Iowa, where the presidential primaries began with the shambolic caucuses in February, has become one of the most expensive electoral battlegrounds in the nation. In 2016, the state went for Trump by a massive 10 points after voting for Obama by two in 2012; the 12-point swing was the largest of any state in the nation. Now, the swing state is living up to that label: FiveThirtyEight has Biden slightly ahead. But it’s not only the presidential race on the line: the incumbent Republican senator Joni Ernst is neck-and-neck with her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield, who has raked in a staggering amount of money – $28.7m in the third quarter of this year alone – to try to flip one of Iowa’s two red Senate seats to blue.
      This is my fourth presidential election in the US, but my first in Iowa. I grew up in Australia, and moved to this state two years ago after living in New York City for a decade, because my partner, an Iowan, ran for office here.
      The vanishing lawn signs, of course, are not the only dirty trick we’ve seen this year: Republicans have done everything in their power to make voting harder for people who likely won’t vote for them, from closing ballot drop locations to reimposing felon disenfranchisement to knee-capping the postal service.
      I voted early and in person, waiting for half an hour in a socially distanced line at the local library. That’s nothing compared with the hours-long wait other voters have endured, but still a tax in the form of time, and in the middle of a pandemic in which Iowa is faring absolutely terribly, a risk voters shouldn’t have to take to get their ballot counted.
      By now it has become a cliche to compare America’s voting system – a state-by-state patchwork of time-consuming and easily-screwed up registration procedures, followed by deliberately limited in-person voting options – to Australia’s. Similarly, it has become a threadbare exercise in horror to compare how the US has responded to coronavirus with how Australia has. When I returned home to see my family in July, I was required to spend two weeks in a hotel room in Sydney and was regularly tested for coronavirus during my quarantine. Six weeks later, when I flew back to Iowa, there was nothing to stop me from driving from the airport to my local supermarket, mask-free, and breathing all over my fellow Iowans.
      To date, more than 120,000 people in Iowa have contracted coronavirus, and 1,693 of them have died. The population of Iowa, where a Republican governor never issued a stay-at-home order and has pushed the state to a full re-opening even as case numbers continue to rise, is 3.1 million. Australia, with its population of 25 million, has seen 27,569 cases to date, 907 of them fatal.
      Cliches or no, it is hard to avoid making these comparisons as election day hurtles towards us. Because they are not simply thought experiments, they’re questions about life and death, and about who and what government is for. What would this country look like if it invested in the infrastructure of a truly representative democracy, as Australia has? Would the officials elected under such a system have taken the threat of the pandemic seriously, rather than allowing partisanship to warp their understanding of not just science but of what sacrifices we owe to each other?
      Just as it was hard to explain to Americans how stringent Australia’s policies for returnees were, it has been hard to explain to Australians what the mood is here as the election approaches. After four years under Trump’s Republican party – four years of obscene policies meant to harm the most vulnerable, four years of testing and in some cases breaking the institutional guard rails of American democracy – and eight months of coronavirus, the mood is sheer anxiety. The mood is utter exhaustion.
      The mood is optimism quickly smothered by fear and dread. This time in 2016, the polls predicted a Trump loss, but voter suppression and Russian interference kept just enough people from voting in crucial states to swing the election Trump’s way.
      The mood, for me and many of my fellow journalists, is disassociation and numbness, coping mechanisms we learned a long time ago are essential for doing the work of covering the horrors and incompetencies of this administration.
      The mood is anticipation of relief, mingled with the knowledge that relief might not come, that it all might go wrong, and that the election, like our lawn signs, might once again be stolen from us.
      • Chloe Angyal is a contributing editor at marieclaire.com and the author of the forthcoming book Turning Pointe: How a New Generation of Dancers Is Saving Ballet From Itself. She is from Sydney and lives in the Iowa City area More