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    Scott Morrison tells US Australia risks going to sleep on China threat after diplomatic ‘charm and flattery’

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    The Chinese Communist party hopes Western democracies “go to sleep on the threat” it poses to the international order, former prime minister Scott Morrison has told a congressional committee in the US.In a forthright appearance before the hawkish US House of Representatives select committee on the strategic competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist party, Morrison said China had changed diplomatic tack after he lost the 2022 election to Anthony Albanese.“This included abandoning their economic and diplomatic bullying and coercion for more inductive engagement, laced with charm and flattery,” Morrison said. “That said, the PRC still continues to engage in intimidatory behaviour by their military against Australia when it suits them without remorse.”Morrison said while China’s diplomatic tactics had changed, its objectives were unaltered: to isolate US influence in the Indo-Pacific and weaken efforts at countering Beijing’s “potential security threat”.He said Australia should boost its defence spending to the 3.5% of GDP demanded of it by the US, arguing “the world has changed” and that Chinese leaders sought to “recast the world order to accommodate their illiberal objectives”.Morrison accused the current Labor government of scrimping on defence spending in order to pay for the Aukus submarine deal, which will cost $358bn to the 2050s.Morrison later told reporters Australian defence spending parsimony – in particular the “displacement” of funds to prioritise Aukus – had been raised by the US in its review of the agreement.Sign up: AU Breaking News email“It wasn’t [meant to be] ‘Aukus instead’, it was ‘Aukus as well’,” he said. “And ‘Aukus as well’ was at least going to add another half a percent of GDP, at least.”Morrison said Australia should raise its defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030 and 3.5% by 2035. The government spends a little over 2% of GDP on defence currently, with forecasts to lift that to 2.3% by 2033. To prioritise Aukus, significant cuts have reportedly been made to defence programs, training budgets and to senior defence ranks.Australia has already paid $1.6bn to the US as part of the Aukus agreement. However, the future of the massive nuclear submarine deal remains uncertain as the Pentagon undertakes a review to ensure it does not weaken US naval capacity or diminish America’s force posture to contain China.Morrison, whose leadership between 2018 and 2022 endured a low in relations with Beijing, told the committee it was vital for western nations to resist Chinese attempts to interfere in politics and curb free speech.Citing polling of Australians by the Lowy Institute, the former prime minister told US lawmakers that “for the first time in quite a number of years there is a greater value on the economic partnership with China than concerns about the security threat”.“That is an objective of the CCP [Chinese communist party], that western democracies go to sleep on the threat,” Morrison said.“You need to build the internal resilience, and that means an appreciation of the potential threat. And that is somewhat in jeopardy in Australia.”Morrison said the liberal world order faced a “rising threat from authoritarian states who, not content with absolute control over their own populations to preserve their regimes, also seek hegemonic control over their own regions and to recast the world order to accommodate their illiberal objectives”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“The Chinese Communist party government of the People’s Republic of China is such a regime.”And Morrison said Western countries were “kidding themselves” if they thought dialogue would change Beijing’s pursuit of their objectives.“A free and open Indo-Pacific – that is a threat and a challenge to regime security in China,” he said.“Discussion is fine, engagement is good – it’s better than the alternative. But if we think that is going to produce change in the mindset of Beijing then we’re frankly kidding ourselves.”Appearing alongside Morrison before the committee hearing was Rahm Emanuel, formerly president Barack Obama’s chief of staff, mayor of Chicago and US ambassador to Japan. Emanuel is widely considered to be a leading Democratic contender contemplating a run for the White House in 2028.He argued the US – in a significant shift from the Trump administration’s “America First” doctrine – should lead a strong “anti-coercion coalition” along with allies like Australia to counter Beijing’s growing influence.He cited China’s trade sanctions on beef, wine and barley, imposed after Australia led calls for an inquiry into the origins of Covid-19, as examples of economic coercion, China’s most “pernicious and persistent tool”.“Australia is the best kind of blueprint of what you want to replicate worldwide. They did it on their own,” Emanuel said. “And China realised they couldn’t isolate Australia.” More

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      Cables and notes reveal UK view on Howard’s personality, Australia’s part in Kyoto ‘awkward squad’ and an aborted cricket match

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      Plus ça change. At the turn of the millennium, Australia was in the throes of “one of its periodic bouts of angst over its place in the Asia-Pacific and the wider world”. It was doubting the reliability of its ally the US, wrestling with the issue of Indigenous reconciliation, and attracting criticism for its lack of commitment to addressing the climate crisis.And it was trying to organise a game of cricket against the English.Just released papers from Britain’s National Archives shed light on intergovernmental correspondence between the governments of Australia and the UK before a prime ministerial visit to London in 2000 to mark Australia Week, and the centenary of the Australian constitution.Correspondence between the governments of the conservative prime minister John Howard and the UK Labour leader Tony Blair reveal a suite of problems still being grappled with in Australia a quarter of a century later.“Personality notes” written for Blair describe Howard as a leader who had “started well” as prime minister, particularly on gun control after the Port Arthur massacre, but who “appeared to lose his way” during his first term. Importantly for the UK, it saw Howard as an “instinctive monarchist … well-disposed towards Britain”. The sketch says Howard was a “strong family man”, significantly influenced by his wife, Janette, that he was a “fanatical follower” of cricket, and a “great admirer” of Sir Winston Churchill and Mahatma Gandhi.In a scene-setting cable dated June 2000 prepared for Blair, the UK high commissioner noted: “Australia is going through one of its periodic bouts of angst over its place in the Asia-Pacific and the wider world”.It said Australia took “enormous national pride” in its intervention in Timor-Leste the year before (despite significant damage to its relationship with Indonesia), saying that the Australian-led peacekeeping mission “raised Australia’s stock in Asia”.

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      However, “critics argue that it simply hardened a view widely held in Asia that Australia is ambivalent, even antagonist, towards Asia”.Timor-Leste, the cable noted, had also strained Canberra’s relations with Washington DC.“The [US’s] perceived reluctance to assist Australia is seen as an indication that the US could not be relied on automatically in circumstances that are of little interest to it.“More broadly, some are doubting that the US will retain interest in the alliance unless Australia increases its commitment, in terms of defence spending.“The litmus test is Taiwan: having to choose between the US and China is the nightmare scenario on Australia’s strategic and diplomatic horizon. Few doubt Australia would choose the US but the calculations are becoming less clearcut.”In 2025, the US defense secretary has insisted Australia lift defence spending to 3.5% of its GDP, while Trump administration officials have demanded assurances from Australia it would support the US in any conflict over Taiwan.On climate, Blair was briefed that although Australia had signed the Kyoto protocol to cut emissions, it had not ratified the treaty.The British government suspected Howard would not raise the matter during the two leaders’ meeting.“If Howard doesn’t mention it, you should raise climate change,” Blair’s brief states. “The Australians are in the awkward squad on Kyoto (alongside eg the Russians and the US): you should tell Howard how important we think the issues are, and encourage Australia to do more.”In the quarter-century since, Australian governments have been consistently criticised internationally for failing to adequately address the climate crisis. A federal court judge last week found previous Australian governments had “paid scant, if any, regard to the best available science” in setting emissions reductions targets.Other files reveal concern within Blair’s government about an Indigenous delegation that visited the UK in late 1999.Leading the delegation was Patrick Dodson, a Yawuru elder and later senator, often referred to as the “father of reconciliation”. During the same trip, he met Queen Elizabeth II as part of a larger effort to foster reconciliation.However, a memo written by Blair’s foreign affairs adviser, John Sawers, reflects angst within the prime minister’s office about a proposed meeting with the delegation, referring to an apparent intervention by the then Australian high commissioner, Philip Flood.“The Australians are pretty wound up about the idea of you seeing the Aborigines at all,” Sawers wrote to Blair. “Their high commissioner rang me to press you not to see them: they were troublemakers – it would be like [the then Australian prime minister] John Howard seeing people from Northern Ireland who were trying to stir up problems for the UK.”The memo suggested: “Can’t we plead diary problems?” The word “yes” is written in answer to this, in handwriting that resembles Blair’s.A quarter-century later, Dodson was a key advocate for an Indigenous voice to parliament, put to Australians in a referendum in 2023. The voice proposal was ultimately defeated.Also within the National Archives files is a prescient document from the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) to the UK High Commission in Canberra. It reflects on a visit from a “rising star in the Australian Labor party and a useful contact for the FCO”.The “rising star” had reflected on Australia’s place in its region (and was summarised by an FCO official): “There were two main problems to Australia being part of Asia: a large slice of the region did not accept them, probably because of a common experience of European occupation – and Australia were too white; and Australians saw themselves as Australians rather than Asian, or indeed Europeans or Americans.”The visitor’s name was Kevin Rudd, the man who in 2007 would replace Howard as the next prime minister of Australia.As the 2000 Australia Week visit from prime minister Howard approached, a flurry of correspondence between the two governments sought to put the finishing touches to the trip. The files contain flight details, hotel bookings, and to-the-minute travel arrangements. There are discussions of trumpet fanfares and processional routes.One idea ultimately discarded was a cricket match proposed by Howard, to be played between Australian and English XIs at a ground near Chequers, the British prime ministerial country house.“The teams could, perhaps, consist of one or two current Test players, a recently retired great cricketer or two, with the balance being young players of promise.”Blair’s private secretary, Philip Barton, wrote in a memo to the UK prime minister: “I suspect the last thing you will want to do is go to a cricket match on the Saturday. But if we just say no, this would no doubt come out and you would look unsporting.”Barton proposed getting former Tory prime minister John Major, an avowed cricket fan, to raise an XI on Blair’s behalf, “but it may not be enough to stop the prime minister having to go to at least the start of the match”. A third option was to “turn it into a charity match”.The match did not go ahead. More

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      Trump, Lutnick and the Shark: key players in the US-Australia tariff tussle

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      Australia, like countries all over the world, now faces the invidious task of negotiating a way around the US’s new tariff wall, finding a way into the good graces of an administration that has proven itself capricious, especially with allies.The 10% tariff rate imposed on all Australian imports has not been paused and Australia’s negotiating position is complicated by a federal election: the government is in caretaker mode, and those seeking to “make a deal” may not have that responsibility next month.But beyond Australia’s own uncertainty, in dealing with the US there is the question of with whom to negotiate.Trade officials and diplomats agree Australia needs to bring discipline and unity to negotiations with a US administration that is its opposite.Multiple sources on both sides of the Pacific say the president is most swayed by the “last voice in the room”, underscoring the imperative for Australia to present a consistent message to the key figures who might have the president’s ear.

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      If it needed further demonstration, the week has showcased the unvarnished reality of an erratic global superpower. In an administration so unpredictable, where does the first phone call go and who has the final say?Key players in the US tariff regimeDonald TrumpPresident of the United StatesView image in fullscreenThe extraordinary “liberation day” announcement was just the beginning: a comprehensive global tariff regime (with some notable exceptions) triggered a stock market crash, followed by the announcement of a 90-day pause on (almost) all tariffs, which saw the stock market soaring and then sinking again, followed by an escalation with China.China has been hit with an increased tariff of 145%, while other tariffs will be “paused” – reduced to the 10% “baseline” rate imposed on Australia, the UK and others.Despite Australia having a free-trade agreement (ratified in 2005) and running a trade deficit with the US (a surplus from the American position), Trump’s position is Australia deserves to be hit with tariffs because of trade barriers he regards as protectionist.“Australia bans – and they’re wonderful people and wonderful everything – but they ban American beef. And, you know, I don’t blame them, but we’re doing the same thing right now, starting at midnight tonight,” he said on 3 April.Despite extraordinary financial tumult in the days since, Trump told a fundraising dinner this week the tariffs were working as a negotiating tool to bend other countries to his will. He said in the wake of the tariff announcement – but before they’d come into effect and crashed the stock market – that he’d been flooded with entreaties from foreign leaders.“These countries are calling me up, kissing my ass, [saying] ‘Make a deal, please, please, sir, make a deal, I’ll do anything, I’ll do anything, sir.’”Howard LutnickUS secretary of commerceView image in fullscreenThe famously combative Lutnick (the New Republic ran a piece this week headlined Everybody Hates Howard Lutnick), has been a key spear-carrier for Trump’s tariff regime, though his own views on their effectiveness are said to be “more nuanced” than his regular television appearances would suggest.Lutnick has singled out Australia for criticism over its trading relationship with the US.“Our farmers are blocked from selling almost anywhere. Europe won’t let us sell beef, Australia won’t let us sell beef,” Lutnick told a television interview. He dismissed Australian arguments the beef restriction was made for biosecurity reasons.“This is nonsense. This is all nonsense. What happens is they block our markets.”Lutnick told Fox News he was in the room week when Trump offered an olive branch of potential “bespoke” negotiations – country by country – to dismantle the tariff walls.“They started calling and making real offers, finally, finally really digging in and understanding how they treat the US unfairly and really offering us a clear path to where we could do really good deals with these countries.”Trump has put a 90-day pause on the imposition of tariffs above 10%, except on China. Beijing’s refusal to countenance negotiation, Lutnick said, meant it was treated with the opposite to a pause on tariffs: further tariff hikes – to 145% – a rate so high it is, in practice, effectively a trade embargo.“Donald Trump is the best negotiator that there is.”Peter NavarroDirector of the office of trade and manufacturing policyView image in fullscreenThe man who went to jail rather than give evidence to Congress about the January 6 insurrection is also a fierce advocate for the president’s tariff regime and an equally vociferous critic of Australia.He singled out aluminium imports from Australia as being exploitative.“The era of unchecked imports undermining American industry is over,” he wrote in USA Today. “The United States will no longer be a dumping ground for heavily subsidised and unfairly traded aluminum.”Navarro compared Australia to “strategic competitors” China and Russia.“Nations considered US allies also have been a big part of the problem. Consider Australia. Its heavily subsidised smelters operate below cost, giving them an unfair dumping advantage, while Australia’s close ties to China further distort global aluminum trade.”Navarro has argued Trump’s tariff regime would end the unfair exploitation of the US.“Australia is just killing our aluminum market,” he told CNN. “President Trump says, ‘No, no we’re not doing that any more.’”He accused Australia of “flooding” the US market, “killing” it and leaving the American domestic industry “on its back”.In 2024 Australian aluminium accounted for less than 2% of US aluminium imports.Navarro has previously quoted a fictional character, Ron Vara – an anagram of his own surname – as a source of economic wisdom. Elon Musk this week said Navarro was “dumber than a sack of bricks”.Jamieson GreerUS trade representativeView image in fullscreenHis office produces an annual barriers to trade report, which for 2025 singled out Australian biosecurity laws, the pharmaceutical benefits scheme and social media regulation as unfair Australian trade practices.Greer has been, along with Lutnick and Navarro, a spear-carrier for the tariff regime.Under questioning before the Senate finance committee, Greer said that, despite a free-trade agreement, Australia harmed US through non-tariff trade barriers.“We’re addressing the $1.2tn deficit – the largest in human history – that President [Joe] Biden left us with. We should be running up the score against Australia.“Despite the agreement, they ban our beef, they ban our pork. They’re getting ready to impose measures on our digital companies.”Greer also told the committee: “Australia has the lowest rate available under the new program.”This is not correct.Russia, Belarus, North Korea and Cuba were all exempted from the tariff regime.Administration insistence that Russia was exempted because it does no “meaningful trade” with the US are also not correct.According to statistics from Greer’s own office, Russia did $3.5bn worth of trade in 2024.Mark WarnerSenator for VirginiaView image in fullscreenThe Democratic senator was the man questioning Greer in the Senate finance committee.“On Australia, we have a trade surplus with Australia, we have a free-trade agreement, they are an incredibly important national security partner – why were they whacked with a tariff?”When Greer responded that Australia imposed biosecurity bans on some US meats and plans to regulate American tech giants, Warner was livid in riposte.“Sir, you’re a much smarter person than that answer: the idea that we are going to whack friend and foe alike, and particularly friends with this level, is both, I think, insulting the Australians, undermines our national security and, frankly, makes us not a good partner going forward.”Joe CourtneyCo-chair of the Congressional Friends of Australia CaucusView image in fullscreenA longtime advocate for Australia and its alliance with the US (rewarded with an Order of Australia for his services, no less), Courtney has described the tariffs imposed on Australia as an “insult”.“Australia is a key strategic ally for our country. They are positioned in the Indo-Pacific at a place where, again, tensions are sky high,” Courtney said.“Instead, what we’re seeing is a completely needless, almost insult to the people of Australia by raising tariffs on Australian products coming into this country.”Greg NormanAustralian former golferView image in fullscreenThe two-time major winner, who dined with Anthony Albanese on “liberation day” eve, has said he is willing to once again act as a diplomatic conduit between Australia and Trump personally. The US president, a lover of golf, has played regular rounds with the former world No 1.In 2016 Norman reportedly passed on Trump’s personal phone number to the then Australian prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, after Trump unexpectedly won the US presidential election but couldn’t be contacted by the Australian government.“If I can give one tiny bit of help that can help going forward between our two nations, I would do it,” he said last month. “I’ve done it in the past; I would do it again.”Norman said Trump was aware of the significance of the US-Australia relationship.“He understands the extremely tight connection between Australia and the US, [which] I call big brother-little brother, that’s how I worded it with him. And I said the importance of that has been decades and decades old, and it’s not going to go anywhere.” More

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      US accuses Australia of breaking ‘verbal commitment’ on aluminium exports as Trump weighs tariffs exemption

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      Donald Trump has called Australia’s prime minister a “very fine man” and said he would give “great consideration” to exempting the country from his new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, after a phone call between the two leaders.It came after comments on Tuesday from the US president that there would be no exceptions or exemptions on the tariffs, which will start on 12 March unless Anthony Albanese can secure an exemption.The official proclamation to impose the aluminium tariff appeared to explain why Australia was not exempted from the outset, with the US accusing Australia of breaking a “verbal commitment” to limit aluminium exports.

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      The new proclamation read: “The volume of U.S. imports of primary aluminum from Australia has also surged and in 2024 was approximately 103% higher than the average volume for 2015 through 2017. Australia has disregarded its verbal commitment to voluntarily restrain its aluminum exports to a reasonable level.”Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull negotiated a carve out from steel and aluminium tariffs during Trump’s first term.Asked about the proclamation on Tuesday night, the deputy prime minister and defence minister, Richard Marles, told ABC’s 7.30: “I can’t speak for the former government, in terms of what it did or didn’t do … but in the discussion that was had today, in the president’s own press conference, having signed the executive order, he made clear that Australian exemptions to this order would be under active consideration. And that’s where this is now at.”Earlier on Tuesday, Albanese said his second call with Trump had been a “very positive and constructive discussion”, which canvassed the Aukus defence pact, critical minerals and foreign investment between the two countries.Albanese said he had also made the case for Australia to be exempted from tariffs and was hopeful of such an outcome.“If you have a look at what we’ve achieved already, it’s been a tremendous start to the relationship,” Albanese told a press conference in Parliament House.Minutes later, the White House announced that the president was signing executive orders to place a 25% tariff on the imports, stepping up a long-promised trade war.Trump initially said the tariffs would be imposed without exceptions but then confirmed he was giving “great consideration” to an Australian carve-out.Asked about his call with Albanese, Trump called the Australian leader “a very fine man” and noted the US trade surplus with Australia.“We have a surplus with Australia, one of the few … I told him that [exemptions] is something we will give great consideration,” Trump said.The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, also publicly urged the Trump administration to exempt Australia from tariffs, claiming any move to the contrary would “damage the relationship” between the two countries.“Tariffs are not warranted against Australia because we have a trade surplus,” he said.Australian politicians were rocked on Monday when Trump told reporters in the US that he planned to announce new tariffs on all steel and aluminium arriving in America.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe Labor government been bracing for such a decision after Trump levelled similar tariffs in his first term, with senior ministers and officials working behind the scenes for some time to secure exemptions like those secured by the then-Coalition government after months of negotiations in 2018.“Our aluminium is a critical input for manufacturing in the United States,” Albanese said on Tuesday after his call with Trump. “Our steel and aluminium are both key inputs for the US-Australia defence industries in both of our countries.“I presented Australia’s case for an exemption and we agreed on wording to say publicly, which is that the US president agreed that an exemption was under consideration in the interests of both of our countries.”Albanese would not reveal more about the process by which the exemption would be considered, the timeline by which a decision would be reached, or what Australia would do if the exemption was ultimately rejected. He said he would not speak for Trump but again referred warmly to the Australia-US relationship.“What I envisage is continuing to act to respond diplomatically,” he said. “That’s how you get things done. My government’s got a record of getting things done in Australia’s national interest. I’ll continue to do so.”A US congressman has hit out at any attempt to slap tariffs on Australian products.Joe Courtney, a Democratic politician and co-chair of the Friends of Australia Caucus,, noted that Australia had just this week begun sending payments to Washington as part of the Aukus pact to help bolster the US submarine construction program.“What we’re seeing is a completely needless, almost insult to the people of Australia by raising tariffs of Australian products coming into this country,” Courtney said.The shadow trade minister, Kevin Hogan, suggested that the government should “reach out to whoever may help” Australia secure exemptions, including the former Coalition politicians Scott Morrison and Joe Hockey.“I encourage the prime minister and indeed ambassador [Kevin] Rudd to talk to people like Morrison, people like Hockey,” he told the ABC. “We had a precedent when we got an exemption, they should be using those resources.” More

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      Kevin Rudd will remain as Australia’s ambassador to US, Anthony Albanese says

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      Anthony Albanese says Kevin Rudd will remain as Australia’s ambassador to Washington despite the apparent disquiet about Rudd’s past commentary on president-elect Donald Trump among some in Trump’s inner circle.Albanese is digging in against media speculation that Trump could demand Rudd’s withdrawal or that others in his administration could make the ambassador’s position untenable, insisting he will stay in the job no matter what.“That’s what we’d expect,” he told ABC’s Insiders program on Sunday.

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      “He’s Australia’s appointment,” Albanese said, speaking from the Apec summit in Peru. “And it says something about the importance of the United States that we have appointed a former prime minister. That’s a sign of how seriously we take this relationship, which is a relationship between our peoples based upon our common values.”Albanese declined to say whether Rudd should apologise for past remarks, which included social media posts calling him “the most destructive president in history” and a 2021 interview in which he described Trump in a 2021 interview as “the village idiot” and “not a leading intellectual force”.“We’re focused on the future, and I’m sure President Trump will be as well, and that is the important thing,” Albanese said.The emergence last week of video of the 2021 remarks this week coincided with a social media post from Trump’s now newly appointed deputy chief of staff, Dan Scavino, depicting sand running through an hourglass, above a screenshot of the congratulatory message Rudd had issued about Trump’s election win.But Albanese said Rudd had been doing “a terrific job” and would continue in the role.He praised the former prime minister’s work building bipartisan relationships and boosting Australia’s ties in the US capital.“Ambassador, Rudd has been working with people across the political spectrum. He attended both the Republican and the Democrat national conventions and engaged with people across the board. I know that he was in regular contact with the head of the Republican campaign committee as well, as well as the Democrats.”In a separate interview with Sky News, also from Peru, Albanese said his 10-minute congratulatory phone conversation with Trump had been “very constructive and positive” and Rudd was not mentioned.“He’s Australia’s ambassador to Washington, and he’s doing a very important job,” Albanese said. “The work that he did with Aukus was a difficult task to get that through the Congress and the Senate. But when I was there, one of the things that struck me was just how extensive the links that Kevin Rudd had developed at the US, Congress and the Senate were.” More

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      Senior Trump adviser suggests Rudd’s time as US ambassador could be up with hourglass gif

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      A senior adviser to US president-elect Donald Trump has fuelled speculation about the future of Australia’s ambassador to Washington, former prime minister Kevin Rudd, by reposting Rudd’s congratulatory statement to Trump on social media with a gif of an hourglass.The provocative time-is-running-out post by former Trump deputy chief of staff for communications Dan Scavino reignited suggestions that the incoming president may prefer another Australian representative in Washington when he takes office in January.Scavino spoke at Trump’s now-infamous Madison Square Garden rally in New York ahead of the election and was billed as a “senior adviser”.A new video emerged earlier this week of Rudd in an interview in 2021 describing Trump as “a village idiot” and “not a leading intellectual force”. Rudd last week – following the US election – deleted old social media posts criticising Trump.There are no formal protocols for challenging the status of incumbent foreign diplomats upon a change of US administration.But Trump has already banished one high-profile diplomat from a significant ally in the past, effectively forcing the withdrawal of then-British ambassador Kim Darroch in 2019 after leaked cables revealed past personal criticisms of the president.Darroch’s situation was different to Rudd’s because the British ambassador’s criticisms were contemporary, not historical.Nevertheless, there is now concern in Australian government and diplomatic circles that the personal nature of some of Rudd’s past criticisms of Trump may be a bigger problem than first feared.

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      Former Australian ambassador to the US Arthur Sinodinos has urged the government not to withdraw Rudd because of the risk of appearing supine. But he also advised finding a way to publicly walk back Rudd’s criticisms of the incoming president.“It would not be a good look to suddenly just yank the ambassador out,” Sinodinos told ABC radio on Wednesday.“But what is important is two things: not only that the prime minister stand by the ambassador, but also the ambassador and the prime minister have got to explain maybe that those comments are inoperative, because circumstances have changed – that calling him all those names … that’s a bit sort of passé.”Sinodinos said the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, and Rudd should seize the opportunity of the president-elect’s emphatic victory to recalibrate.“Because the president [elect] has demonstrated his capacity to win elections and to win an extraordinary mandate from the American people, the popular vote, as well as the electoral college and the and the Congress. So maybe he’s not as unsmart or the village idiot that some people think.”On Wednesday, the Australian opposition leader, Peter Dutton, appeared to endorse Rudd and praised his efforts.“It’s important that he does work in our country’s name,” Dutton told ABC radio. “He’s been a very effective contributor to public debate, particularly as a former prime minister. He is well respected, and I hope he’s able to form a relationship with the new administration, as he’s done with the current one.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionWhile highlighting the former prime minister’s “incredible work ethic”, evident in a meeting the pair had on his own recent trip to Washington, Dutton caveated his praise.“As you would expect, [Rudd’s] got an incredible work ethic, but he’s made disparaging comments and that’s an issue for the government to deal with,” he said.“People of both political types have gone to that position. They bring gravitas to the office and I hope that there can be good work done in our country’s name.”Former prime minister Tony Abbott downplayed Rudd’s criticisms and any risk of US intervention. Abbott said Rudd had done a good job and said some “injudicious things about the incoming president – but a lot of people have”.“[It would be] unusual for our closest ally to start being prescriptive about who can and can’t be our ambassador,” Abbott said in his podcast Australia’s Future with Tony Abbott.But he also warned Australia should be “very careful” about criticising a US president or ex-president.On Tuesday, Dutton had more actively entertained critical questions about Rudd’s future.“The ambassador has to have a functional working relationship with the administration, whether that’s a Democrat or Republican administration,” Dutton told reporters.. He also pointed to criticisms of Trump by Albanese and the foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong.Albanese has continued to back Rudd and said he remains the right person for the ambassador role. More

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      How will the outcome of the US election affect Australia, Aukus and our region?

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      More people have gone to a ballot box in 2024 than in any other year in human history. Billions have cast votes across scores of countries, including some of the largest, most powerful democracies on Earth.But America’s remains the world’s global election, the most forensically examined, the most consequential all over the world. America matters.“The US is still the most powerful actor in the international system,” Dr Michael Fullilove, executive director of the Lowy Institute, told the Guardian this week. “It is the richest company, with the biggest military, the biggest economy.“It is the only country that runs a truly global foreign policy, the only country that can project power anywhere on Earth.“It is the democratic, meritocratic superpower … it still attracts so many people around the world … the whole world is remarkably well-informed about the US election.”And Australia’s future is bound up in America’s electoral decision. As one of America’s closest allies – supporters might argue for “staunchest”, opponents might claim “uncritical” – Australia’s economic, security and multilateral landscape is tied to that of the US and the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.How could the election of a second Donald Trump presidency impact Australia? Or how might the quasi-continuity of Vice-President Kamala Harris ascending to the White House?Trump, neccesarily, is the object of much of Australia’s focus. Harris, as Joe Biden’s vice-president, is the continuity candidate – promoting policy positions in line with the current administration – meaning a Trump victory would raise many more questions.The election too, will be keenly fought over a host of domestic issues which have no direct – though some peripheral – impact on Australia. This includes issues such as reproductive rights (the overturning of Roe v Wade by the supreme court and a mooted national abortion ban), migration (particularly on the country’s southern border), gun control and law and order – issues excluded in this piece.Watching the crescendo of an increasingly vituperative election campaign, Fullilove said that politically “America is running a high temperature at the moment”.“My real hope for the election is that there is a clear result, that the loser accepts defeat, that the transfer of power is peaceful – that might sound like a low bar – but it is critical, for America and for the world.”Values and democracyResponding to the unpredictability of Trump’s first presidency, Australian politicians repeated the refrain that the Australian-US alliance runs deeper than a president or prime minister and that it is one founded on shared values and democratic principles.Trump has said he would not be a dictator, “except on day one”. He said he would seek retribution on his political opponents: “root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country that lie and steal and cheat on elections”.As commander-in-chief, he said he would consider using the military to attack domestic enemies: “It should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by the national guard, or if really necessary, by the military”.Trump’s former chief of staff, Gen John Kelly, said this week Trump was a “fascist” who “certainly prefers the dictator approach to government”. Trump has repeatedly lied that he won the 2020 election and mused on “terminating” the constitution.He told a rally in July that if he was elected president again, “you won’t have to vote any more”.“In four years, you don’t have to vote again. We’ll have it fixed so good, you’re not going have to vote.”Harris has denounced Trump as a “fascist” who wants “unchecked power” and a military personally loyal to him.In her speech to the Democratic National Convention, she cited the supreme court’s split decision in July stating Trump enjoyed broad immunity for official acts taken while in office.“Consider the power he [Trump] will have, especially after the United States supreme court ruled he will be immune from prosecution,” she said. “Imagine Donald Trump with no guardrails.”ClimateClimate change is “one of the greatest scams of all time”, Trump said last month. “We will drill, baby, drill,” he told the Republican National Convention when accepting the party’s nomination. “We will do it at levels that nobody’s ever seen before.”He has said he would prohibit, by executive order, all offshore wind projects on the first day of his presidency, saying they kill whales.In his first term, Trump withdrew from the Paris agreement (the US rejoined under Biden). But his campaign has indicated a second Trump presidency might re-abandon the Paris agreement, as well as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which underpins it. 198 countries have committed to the UNFCCC: none has left it.The withdrawal of the US – the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter and the country that has contributed the largest share of historical emissions – would increase political uncertainty around the transition to net zero and deter investment. It would weaken the influence of the so-called umbrella group – of which Australia is a member – and give succour to climate laggards, such as the petrostates, to further slow global reduction efforts.Some have argued that much of the impetus and funding for global emissions reductions is locked in and emissions reductions efforts are working on timescales far longer than a four-year presidential cycle.But Michael Mann, distinguished professor of meteorology at Pennsylvania State University, has argued “a second Trump term is game over for the climate”.Harris has called climate change an “existential threat”. As attorney general in California, she prosecuted oil companies for breaches of environmental laws. As vice-president, she was the tie-breaking vote in the Senate to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided about US$370bn to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 40% below 2005 levels by 2030.But during Harris’s vice-presidency, the US produced and exported the most crude oil of any country at any time in history, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s figures. Crude oil production averaged 12.9m barrels a day in 2023, breaking the previous global record of 12.3m, set in 2019.Trade and the economyTrump is a fierce economic nationalist, hostile to free trade and intensely focused on America’s trade deficit, which he regards as a sign of weakness. He has pledged to impose a 10% tariff on all imports to the US, with a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and a 100% tariff on Chinese cars.Economists argue the policy will lead to higher prices and lower growth. The nonpartisan Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated the proposed tariffs would lower the incomes of an average American household by US$1,700 a year: poor Americans would be more affected than the rich.In September, Trump said: “Together, we will deliver low taxes, low regulations, low energy costs, low interest rates and low inflation so that everyone can afford groceries, a car and a home”. He has promised to reduce regulation and cut taxes, but some economists argue his tax cuts would benefit America’s wealthiest while hurting the poorest.Australia is not dependent on direct trade with the US, but the majority of Australia’s trade is with China. If China’s economy, already weak, is damaged further by a trade war with America, Australia will be exposed.Harris has criticised Trump’s tariff policies, arguing they would act as a “sales tax on Americans” and lead to higher prices and inflation. But the Biden administration – of which she has been vice-president – has extended Trump-era tariffs and used tariffs to influence trade on industries it sees as strategic – particularly in relation to China. The administration extended tariffs on solar panels in 2022, and in May this year, increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 100%.As a senator, Harris opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade agreement (involving Australia) negotiated by President Obama and from which Trump withdrew.Defence and AukusWhile Trump has been critical of Nato, he has not criticised Australia as a military ally or the Aukus deal, a tripartite agreement (between the US, UK, and Australia) for Australia to acquire up to eight nuclear-powered submarines between now and the mid-2050s, the first in the 2030s.Australia’s deputy prime minister, Richard Marles, said his government believed Trump would honour the agreement: “Every engagement we’ve had with the Trump camp in the normal process of speaking with people on both sides of politics in America, there is support for … Aukus,” he said.

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      But John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser – now a fierce critic of the former president – said of Aukus: “I think it could be in jeopardy”.Fullilove asked Trump’s vice-presidential candidate JD Vance this year for his position on the agreement. Vance replied he was “a fan of Aukus”.“I suspect that Aukus would be safe under Trump too,” Fullilove told the Guardian.“Australia is an example of an ally that is contributing to deterrence and contributing to the US industrial base. You could imagine Trump threatening to unpick it, but my conclusion is it is safe.”Aukus was signed by the Biden-Harris administration. The administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy commits to the deal, but does not give a timeline: “Through the Aukus partnership, we will identify the optimal pathway to deliver nuclear-powered submarines to the Royal Australian Navy at the earliest achievable date.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAirbases in Australia were used for US airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen this month. The defence department confirmed Australia provided support for the US strikes “through access and overflight for US aircraft in northern Australia”.Israel-GazaBoth Trump and Harris have declared their support for Israel and reiterated support for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine.The US continues to supply Israel with billions of dollars of weapons and munitions as Israel carries out its bombardment of Gaza, Lebanon, and, this week, strikes on Iran.The US is, by far, the largest supplier of arms to Israel: 69% of Israel’s imports of major conventional arms between 2019 and 2023 came from America, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The US has signed an agreement to provide Israel with $3.8bn in annual military aid under a 10-year-agreement.1,200 Israelis died in the 7 October 2023 attacks by Hamas. More than 42,000 people have died in Gaza since, including more than 16,000 children.Trump has expressed his support for Israel’s invasion and bombardment of Gaza. He has also urged Israel to “finish up” the war because it is losing support.“You have to finish up your war … you’ve got to get it done,” he told Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom. “We’ve got to get to peace. You can’t have this going on, and I will say Israel has to be very careful because you are losing a lot of the world. You are losing a lot of support.”Trump said of Harris: “She hates Israel. If she’s president, I believe that Israel will not exist within two years from now.”In his first term, Trump released a peace proposal he called a blueprint for a two-state solution: it would not have created an independent Palestinian state and was seen as strongly favouring Israel.“Israel has a right to defend itself,” Harris said in September’s presidential debate.She continued: “How it does so matters. Because it is also true far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. Children. Mothers. What we know is that this war must end. It must end immediately, and the way it will end is we need a ceasefire deal and we need the hostages out.”Harris has consistently reiterated support for a two-state solution.The war in UkraineNearly three years on since Russia invaded Ukraine – and a decade since its initial assault on Crimea – the US remains the largest backer of Ukraine’s war effort. It is by far the single biggest contributor of money and materiel, outspending the next largest contributor, Germany, by five to one.Trump has made it abundantly clear he wants the war over – or, more precisely, he wants to stop paying for it.He told a rally: “I think [Ukrainian president Volodymyr] Zelenskyy is maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that’s ever lived. Every time he comes to our country he walks away with $US60bn.”Influencing Republican allies in Congress, Trump stalled the last funding package from passing for months while Ukrainian forces – critically short of ammunition and artillery – struggled to hold back Russian advances. Trump’s manoeuvring was criticised as essentially backing Vladimir Putin’s irredentism.Trump has also repeatedly claimed if re-elected he would end the war in a day – “I’ll have that done in 24 hours” – without detailing how. It is presumed a deal to stop the conflict would involve the ceding of Ukrainian territory to Russia.Trump’s disposition towards Ukraine has broader implications for the collective security principle underpinning Nato. Trump has compared Nato to a protection racket and said he would not protect “delinquent” allies.“In fact, I would encourage them [the Russians] to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay! You gotta pay your bills.”Trump has repeatedly upbraided European countries for failing to live up to their commitment to spend 2% of their GDP on defence.Harris has pledged to continue Biden’s support for Ukraine and for the Nato alliance. She said as vice-president “I helped mobilise a global response – over 50 countries – to defend against Putin’s aggression.“And as president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our Nato allies.”Harris, however, has wavered on Ukraine being admitted as a member to Nato, saying the question was among the “issues that we will deal with if and when it arrives at that point”.China“Trump and Kamala Harris are two bowls of poison for Beijing. Both see China as a competitor or even an adversary,” Prof Zhao Minghao, from the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, told the Financial Times.Trump was hawkish towards China in his first term, confronting Beijing over what he argued were a suite of unfair practices and abuses such as intellectual property theft, currency manipulation and economic espionage. He pledged to “completely eliminate dependence on China in all critical areas,” including electronics, steel, pharmaceuticals, and rare earths. And he has flagged new laws to stop US companies from investing in China and a ban on federal contracts for any company that outsources to China.His first administration rejected Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea, condemning Beijing’s “campaign of bullying” of other countries.Harris spoke on China in September, saying her government would work to ensure the US “is leading the world in the industries of the future and making sure America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century”.“China is not moving slowly … if we are to compete, we can’t afford to, either.”She condemned Trump as having “constantly got played by China” and said his administration shipped advanced semiconductors to China, allowing them to upgrade their military.“I will never hesitate to take swift and strong measures when China undermines the rules of the road at the expense of our workers, our communities, and our companies.”The PacificClimate change is an urgent existential threat for the islands of the Pacific. Trump does not mention the climate crisis in his platform, nor is it mentioned in Agenda47.The Heritage Foundation – the conservative thinktank behind the Trump-linked Project 2025 – has urged for partnership with the Pacific islands, but on American terms and in its interests. “The US must adopt a clear-eyed approach about putting American interests and objectives in the Pacific islands first,” it said.The Biden-Harris administration have held two Pacific islands-US summits which have been big on ambition – with commitments of more than $1bn to resilience regionalism and sustainable development – but seen as lacking, so far, in application and results.The 2022 US-Pacific partnership declared a shared vision for “a resilient Pacific region of peace, harmony, security, social inclusion, and prosperity”.Fullilove said while Harris sits within the mainstream traditions of US foreign policy over recent decades, “it’s hard to get a really accurate fix on what she thinks about the world”.“At a broad level, she believes in American leadership, she believes in alliances, she prefers democracy to dictators, she more pro-trade than Trump. But beyond that, it’s very hard to know how she will approach Asia, the part of the world Australia is in, because she hasn’t been a prominent foreign policy voice in the Biden administration.”Read more about the 2024 US presidential election:

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      Cameron: Aukus and Nato must be in ‘best possible shape’ before potential Trump win – video

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      The UK foreign secretary, David Cameron, has suggested the Aukus pact and Nato alliance must get into the best possible shape to increase their chances of surviving Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House. Speaking after high-level talks in Australia, Cameron was careful to avoid criticising the former US president and presumptive Republican nominee for 2024, saying it was ‘up to America who they choose as their president’. The comments were in response to a question about whether the election of Trump in November would affect the Aukus agreement that was sealed with the Biden administration in March last year More