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      Anthony Albanese confident dysfunction in US Congress won’t affect Aukus deal

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      Anthony Albanese has expressed confidence that rolling dysfunction in the legislature of the United States won’t derail the Aukus nuclear submarine pact, telling reporters he will continue to engage senators and members of Congress during his time in Washington.Republican infighting has paralysed the US House of Representatives for the past three weeks. Former speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted on 3 October and colleagues are yet to determine his successor.
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      Asked during his four-day official visit whether he was concerned the imbroglio around the speakership would delay critical legislation needed for the submarine pact, Australia’s prime minister told travelling reporters he was “very confident” discussions with legislators had been, and would be, productive.“We are able to talk with legislators, and we’re doing so,” Albanese said. “And I’ll be meeting some people this afternoon, and then again tomorrow, and then Wednesday and Thursday, while I’m here, and we’re very confident that those discussions have been very productive.”Albanese said the election of a new speaker was a matter for congressional members, but Australia would “continue to engage” with legislators.As well as the complication of congressional dysfunction, doubts about Australia’s willingness to join forces with the US in a war against China are also being cited by congressional researchers as a potential obstacle to the Aukus nuclear-powered submarine deal.The Aukus plan was intended to start with increased visits by US submarines to Australian ports this year, followed by a rotational presence of one UK Astute class submarine and up to four US Virginia class submarines at HMAS Stirling near Perth, Western Australia, late this decade at the earliest.Australia earlier this year earmarked $3bn to help the US reduce work backlogs on its Virginia class submarines, and expand its production ability. The Albanese government has signalled previously there is “scope for additional funding” beyond the first four-year budget period, with the exact amount to depend on negotiations with the two countries.The prime minister was asked whether or not he would be willing to increase Australia’s current commitment of $3bn in an effort to persuade more Republicans to support the legislation necessary to enable Aukus.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAlbanese said Australia’s current level of support to boost the industrial base in the US was “appropriate”.He said the government’s financial contribution would enable Australians to be trained alongside skilled personnel in the US and the UK, and “president Biden is on the same page” with that aspiration. Collaboration between the US, the UK and Australia would lift the defence capability of all three nations, which would help preserve security in the Indo-Pacific.“The combination of the three nations cooperating when it comes to defence capacity lifts the capacity of everyone, of all three countries,” Albanese said. “That’s what this is about. Win-win-win for Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom.”Australia’s prime minister said the US legislators he had spoken to “not only get that, they support it, and they support it very strongly – and that has been across the board whether they be Democrat or Republican”.“I’m very confident of a very positive outcome,” Albanese said. More

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      Trump’s potential return to White House up to American people, says Kevin Rudd

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      The Australian ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, says it is up to the American people whether Donald Trump returns to the White House – an outcome he previously said would “fray” support for the US alliance in Australia.The former Australian prime minister said on Wednesday that US politics was “a complex beast” and he was focused on keeping on good terms with both sides of the aisle, including former Trump officials.Rudd said he was also focused on securing US legislation to enable tech collaboration under the Aukus pact, but likened it to “a complex process of sausage-making”.Rudd is well connected in Washington and is close to senior figures in the Biden administration and establishment Republicans, but has previously been an outspoken critic of Trump.Prior to his appointment as ambassador, which took effect earlier this year, Rudd called Trump “the most destructive president in history”.Rudd told Guardian Australia before the 2020 election that if Trump were re-elected, “the overall fabric of domestic political support in this country and among other American allies around the world will begin to more fundamentally fray”.Rudd had a more diplomatic message when he spoke to reporters outside Old Parliament House in Canberra on Wednesday.Asked what preparations he was making for the possibility of another Trump administration, Rudd said both the US and Australia were “robust democracies”.
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      Since taking up the diplomatic posting, Rudd said he had “worked comfortably and seamlessly” with House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, and Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell.Rudd said he had also spoken with Republican House and Senate leaders from across the US congressional system “and also with former members of the Trump administration from last time round”.“That’s our job as an embassy and that’s my job as ambassador. What the good burghers [people] of the United States choose to do in their own electoral process is a matter for them – from which, thankfully, Australian ambassadors are immune from comment.”Rudd’s comment was an adaptation of “the good burghers of Griffith” – a phrase he had previously used in reference to the voters in the electorate he previously held in the Australian parliament.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionDespite Trump facing multiple indictments, including over the attempt to overturn the 2020 election results, the former president remains the frontrunner to secure the Republican nomination for the 2024 election.Although it remains very early in the cycle, the current general election polling suggests Joe Biden and Trump are closely matched.Rudd expressed confidence in the prospect of passing US legislation to enable both elements of the Aukus: Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines and collaboration on other advanced defence technology.After speaking with committee chairs and ranking members in the US Senate and Congress, Rudd said Aukus enjoyed “quite a remarkable level of bipartisan support” but there would always be “pretty colourful debate”.Republicans have raised concerns the US could fall short on its own needs when selling Australia at least three Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s, but Rudd said it was normal for elected members to reflect “their own industry policy concerns and their own constituency concerns”.Australia has already earmarked about $3bn over the next four years to boost the submarine sustainment and production capacity of the US and the UK.Most of this is expected to go to the US, and Rudd played down the idea Australia would be asked to tip in more funds.“No one that I’ve met in the United States has challenged what we’re proposing to do and the impact of what we ourselves will do in terms of adding to their industrial capacity,” he said.Hinting the US may make further investments in its own submarine industrial base, Rudd predicted the issue would be resolved through negotiations “between the administration and relevant senators”.Rudd said he would continue to convey the Australian government’s position that the case against the WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange had “gone on for too long”, but likely behind the scenes “in order to maximise our prospects”.Rudd was speaking on his way into a Tech Council of Australia event, where he said Australia and the US were serious about collaborating on renewable energy and critical minerals. More

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      Australian minister Clare O’Neil calls Donald Trump Jr ‘a big baby’ after speaking tour is postponed

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      Australia’s home affairs minister, Clare O’Neil, has called Donald Trump Jr “a big baby” after his tour of the country was postponed.Trump Jr’s promoter blamed “cancel culture”, even though he was granted a visa to travel to Australia.He was scheduled to speak in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne, with the first of the events to be held on Sunday 9 July.On Wednesday, Trump Jr’s promoter, Turning Point Australia, said in a Facebook post that “due to unforeseen circumstances” his appearances in the country would be postponed.Turning Point Australia wrote: “It seems America isn’t the only country that makes it difficult for the Trumps. Hold on to your tickets, this is a short delay nothing more #CancelCulture.”In a separate statement, the promoter said it had been forced to postpone the tour due to a visa delay.“The visa, which has now been issued, was only received late afternoon of Wednesday 5 July, only 24 hours before Donald Trump Jr was set to board a flight to Sydney.”
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      Guardian Australian understands Trump Jr applied for a visa two weeks ago and the turnaround time is normally a fortnight.The Australian immigration department would not comment on the matter on Wednesday but on Thursday O’Neil took to Twitter.“Geez, Donald Trump Jr is a bit of a sore loser. His dad lost an election fair and square – but he says it was stolen. Now he’s trying to blame the Australian government for his poor ticket sales and cancelled tour,” the Labor minister wrote.“Donald Trump Jr has been given a visa to come to Australia. He didn’t get cancelled. He’s just a big baby, who isn’t very popular.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTurning Point Australia said 8,000 tickets had already been sold across the three states, with all VIP tickets – priced as high as $2,500 – selling out in the first week of the tour announcement.“Ticket holders are urged to hold on to their tickets, with details of the rescheduled date to be confirmed in the coming days,” a post on the company’s website said.A spokesperson said on Thursday: “Turning Point Australia is not going to dignify the minister’s tweets with a comment. Suffice to say she is entitled to her opinion and freedom of speech no matter how idiotic.”Turning Point Australia and Donald Trump Jr were approached for comment. More

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      Joe Biden cancels Australian visit amid US domestic debt deadlock

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      President Joe Biden has cancelled a visit to Australia, the second leg of his upcoming Asia trip, due to the slow-motion crisis building in Washington over the US debt ceiling.Biden is to attend a three-day summit of G7 leaders that starts on Friday in Hiroshima, Japan, and will return to the US on Sunday.He had been scheduled to make a brief, historic stop in Papua New Guinea, then travel to Australia for a meeting of the Japan, Australia, India and US grouping known as the Quad countries.Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said Biden had called him on Wednesday morning with the news.“The president apologised that he would now have to postpone this visit because of the unfolding difficulties he is facing in his negotiations with the US Congress over the US Government debt ceiling,” he said.“These negotiations are scheduled to enter their critical and concluding phase during the last week of May. Regrettably, this conflicts with the President’s visits to Sydney and Canberra – including the Quad Summit scheduled for 24 May.”They would reschedule his visit to Australia at the earliest opportunity, Albanese said. “I also look forward to visiting Washington later this year for a state visit to the United States.”Australia was talking to the leaders of Japan and India about their travel plans, he said. “In the meantime, I look forward to meeting with both prime ministers and the president at the G7 Summit in Hiroshima on 20-21 May.”John Kirby, the White House national security spokesperson, told reporters earlier on Tuesday that Australian stop was being re-evaluated.Biden had been due to address the Australian parliament, as the first US president in nearly 10 years to speak to a joint session of MPs and senators in Canberra.Officials had previously confirmed that Biden would make the speech on Tuesday 23 May, the day before he attended the Quad summit in Sydney.“These leaders, all leaders of democracies … they know that our ability to pay our debts is a key part of US credibility and leadership around the world,” Kirby said. “And so they understand that the president also has to focus on making sure that we don’t default.”The treasury department has estimated that the US will go into a crippling default as early as 1 June if Congress does not lift the debt ceiling. More

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      TikTok must divest itself of Chinese ownership or face ban, FCC commissioner tells Australian inquiry

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      TikTok will either need to divest itself from Chinese ownership or face a ban in the United States, according to the commissioner of the US federal communications commission, Brendan Carr, who accused the company of “gaslighting” the public on surveillance concerns.Appearing before the Australian Senate inquiry into foreign influence through social media, the Trump appointee said concern about TikTok in the US was “broad and deep”, and crossed party lines.Following the United Kingdom, Australia and other countries’ ban of the app from government devices, the US is considering a full ban nationally. Legislation enacting a statewide ban was recently passed in Montana.TikTok has attempted to head off any potential ban by moving US user data to third-party servers within the country. It is also allowing its source code to be scrutinised by US tech firm Oracle, which will screen TikTok app updates.Carr told the committee while that was ultimately an issue being handled by the US Treasury department, there was a common view among Democrats and Republicans that the data could not be prevented from being accessed by Chinese government officials under the 2017 national security law.Carr, the most senior Republican member on the FCC, said only an outright ban of the app in the United States or removing all corporate ties to China would be acceptable.“Ultimately, I think some sort of … legislation that imposes a ban or a genuine divestiture is the way forward right now,” he said.“The argument that somehow TikTok is going to stand up to the CCP is belied by their inability to do it at any point in time publicly. For instance, when asked in US media interviews, whether they acknowledge the existence of the Uyghur genocide, their official on TV refused to address it.”Carr said that a Project Texas plan might work for other Chinese companies, but TikTok’s actions to date meant there was no trust for the United States.“We’ve had this years-long approach that strikes me is nothing short of a gaslighting in terms of their misrepresentations,” he said.A spokesperson for TikTok said divestment wouldn’t solve the problem if national security is the objective.“A change in ownership would not impose any new restrictions on data flows or access. The best way to address concerns about national security is with the transparent, US-based protection of US user data and systems, with robust third-party monitoring, vetting, and verification, which we are already implementing.”The Australian government has announced no plans beyond the ban of TikTok from government devices, but the Coalition is likely to push the Labor government for more restrictions on the app.The chair of the inquiry and shadow home affairs minister, senator James Paterson, opened the hearing by saying that the inquiry would serve as a starting point on making Australians a harder target for foreign interference.“We cannot allow foreign authoritarian regimes to have unfettered access to the devices of millions of Australians and the powerful opportunity that offers them to influence our democracy,” he said. “The work starts today to make us a harder target against the threat of cyber enabled foreign interference.”TikTok this week issued a factcheck on claims made about the app, and denied that Australian user data could be accessed in China.The inquiry is holding initial hearings on Thursday and Friday, and is due to report back to parliament in August. More

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      Kevin Rudd: Australia’s incoming ambassador to US says balloon saga threatens push to ease tensions with China

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      Kevin Rudd: Australia’s incoming ambassador to US says balloon saga threatens push to ease tensions with ChinaFormer Labor prime minister says incident has created ‘diplomatic clouds’ that may overshadow efforts to stabilise relationship The incoming Australian ambassador to the United States, Kevin Rudd, has warned the Chinese balloon saga has created new “diplomatic clouds” that put at risk recent efforts to ease tensions between Beijing and Washington.In a speech in Brisbane on Wednesday, Rudd also warned against expecting any “softening in China’s ideological cleavage with the west”.Rudd, a former Labor prime minister who remains as president of the Asia Society until late next month, emphasised that he was offering “personal reflections” which “do not represent the views of the Australian government”.But given he is due to take up his diplomatic posting within weeks, Rudd’s views are likely to attract attention in Washington and Beijing.UK rehearsing economic fallout scenarios if China invades TaiwanRead moreDelivering the inaugural China Matters Oration at the University of Queensland, Rudd reiterated his view that “we are now indeed living in what I have called the decade of living dangerously”.He said the Chinese Communist party appeared to have abruptly changed course on Covid-19 policy because it “feared that not doing so would threaten its unofficial social contract with the Chinese people”.It also worried that a structural slowdown in growth could undermine China’s long-term strategic competition against the US, Rudd said. Those factors made it essential to “return to economic growth at all costs”.“While there has been much internal criticism for how the abrupt change to Chinese Covid policy was made, we should not conclude as a result that Xi Jinping is in real and immediate political danger,” Rudd said.“We should never forget that Xi’s control of the hard levers of power across the party’s security, intelligence and organisational apparatus continues to be near-complete.”Spurred by the “new urgency of its economic growth imperative”, China had attempted to make changes to its international relations in the wake of Xi’s meeting with the US president, Joe Biden, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in November.Rudd said those efforts included Xi’s renewed contact with heads of government around the world, particularly European leaders, to promote Chinese trade and investment opportunities.Xi had also reined in “the polarising practice of ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy seen over the last five years toward US partners and allies around the world, as Beijing embarks on a new approach in the short-to-medium term to accommodate its immediate economic growth agenda”.But Rudd predicted none of those shifts were likely to result in China changing its current military posture regarding the US, Japan and Taiwan.He said China retained its long-term strategic objective of increasing its power relative to the US “to make it possible to secure Taiwan by force at a time of Beijing’s choosing”.He said these structural tensions would “likely manifest in continued and increasing Chinese air force crossings of the median line in the Taiwan Strait; so too with Chinese intercepts of US and allied reconnaissance flights over the South China Sea”.“But nonetheless, prior to recent developments over the interception of the Chinese balloon over the United States, Beijing had begun to moderate its political relationship with Washington.”This was meant to pave the way for a visit to China by the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, to continue talks on putting in place “protections” or “guardrails” to manage growing strategic competition.But Blinken postponed this month’s trip after the detection over US territory – and later shooting down – of a high-altitude balloon that American officials said was a Chinese surveillance device.What do we know about the four flying objects shot down by the US?Read more“While Beijing’s objectives may have been limited in scope, both sides appeared to have agreed not to allow their relationship to continue to freefall for the near term,” Rudd said.“At least that was the case until the extraordinary events of February. As of today, it remains unclear if and when the diplomatic clouds may clear to the extent they would enable the return of Secretary Blinken to Beijing – and the extent to which bilateral political resolve remains to find new mechanisms to stabilise the relationship as envisaged last November.”Rudd is due to take up his posting as ambassador to the US at a time when Australia is planning the most substantial overhaul of its defence capabilities in decades, even as it tries to “stabilise” its previously frosty relationship with China.On Tuesday the Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, received the report of a defence strategic review, which is widely expected to see Australia acquire longer range missiles and attempt to project power further from its shores.Australia is also finalising the details of its plans to acquire at least eight nuclear-powered submarines with help from the US and the UK under the Aukus deal.The head of Australia’s nuclear-powered submarine taskforce, V-Adm Jonathan Mead, revealed on Wednesday that he had handed his recommendations to the government “earlier this year”. A joint announcement by Albanese, Biden and the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, is expected next month.Australia’s deputy prime minister, Richard Marles, told the ABC the government’s response to the wide-ranging defence review would be released “weeks” after the initial Aukus announcement.Marles also said he planned to introduce legislation to “remove any doubt” that former Australian defence personnel must maintain their country’s secrets. It follows a review into concerns about China’s attempted recruitment of former fighter pilots.TopicsKevin RuddChinaAsia PacificAustralian politicsUS politicsAustralian militaryTaiwannewsReuse this content More

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      Documents reveal Australia’s efforts to stay neutral as Donald Trump claimed electoral fraud

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      Documents reveal Australia’s efforts to stay neutral as Donald Trump claimed electoral fraudUS political insider admits there are ‘reasons to worry’ for its democracy as allies wonder at damage done to the west’s credibility

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      A longtime US foreign policy official is frank when asked whether Australia should worry about risks to American democracy.“I can’t, with a straight face, say there’s nothing to worry about,” says Richard Fontaine, head of the Center for a New American Security, an influential Washington thinktank.Visiting Canberra this week, he says: “I spent seven years of my life working in the US Senate, and I never in a million years thought that I would see a mob trying to overturn the certification of a presidential election by storming the US Capitol. It’s unthinkable, but this is where we are. So there are certainly some reasons for concern.”New documents obtained by Guardian Australia show how Australia tried to avoid wading into controversy during that turbulent period by stressing its confidence in American institutions to ensure a peaceful transition of power from Donald Trump to Joe Biden.Australian officials were closely following news reports and monitoring statements by senior members of Trump’s cabinet in the weeks after the then-president’s refusal to concede defeat in the 2020 presidential election and in the period around the attempted insurrection at the Capitol building on 6 January 2021.Capitol attack panel votes to subpoena Trump – ‘the central cause of January 6’Read more‘Will there be a peaceful transition of power?’One briefing provided to Australia’s then foreign affairs minister, Marise Payne, in early January noted that Trump “has not conceded and continues to pursue legal challenges to electoral processes”.The briefing drew attention to a report in the Washington Post based on “an hour-long recording of a phone call between President Trump and Georgia’s secretary of state Brad Raffensperger, the official responsible for administering the state’s elections”.“During the call, President Trump pressured fellow Republican Raffensperger to ‘find 11,780 votes’ and recalculate the results of the election in Trump’s favour,” said the briefing material obtained under freedom of information laws.The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade advised Payne not to “add” to commentary about Trump’s attempt to pressure Raffensperger.A key line for public consumption was that American leadership was “indispensable” to meeting global challenges and that the alliance between Australia and the US was “enduring and built on shared democratic values”.But there was apparently enough concern about the situation for officials to outline a response if any journalist asked the direct question: “Will there be a peaceful transition of power?”The official response was: “The United States is a great democracy that has handled peaceful transitions of power for many years and we have every confidence that will continue.”The situation then escalated sharply with the deadly violence at the US Capitol building, prompting Dfat to prepare a detailed rundown of the events, including temporary suspension of the congressional certification of electoral college votes.“After the Capitol building was secured, certification of electoral college votes continued on the night of 6 January, with Biden being confirmed as president-elect,” the updated briefing explained.“Some Republican lawmakers challenged Biden’s victories in Arizona and Pennsylvania, but the objections were rejected by most Republicans and all Democrats, and failed.”This Dfat briefing noted that the protesters “had arrived from a rally held earlier outside the White House addressed by President Trump” who had “claimed to be the legitimate winner of an election that had been rigged and stolen”.“Trump encouraged the crowd to walk to the Capitol building and ‘give our Republicans … the kind of pride and boldness they need to take back our country,’” the document said.The briefing detailed the subsequent resignations of a number of senior Trump administration officials, the US House of Representatives’ vote to impeach Trump for “incitement of insurrection”, and moves by social-media companies to suspend Trump’s accounts.Updated “talking points” for Payne included condemnation of “any use or threat of violence to interfere with democratic processes” – but argued that US institutions were “robust” and welcomed Trump’s publicly stated “commitment to an orderly transition of power”.Too close for comfortThe events of January 2021 and their continuing fallout have caused discomfort for policymakers in Australia and other US allies, which count on the US for security and whose leaders often proclaim “shared values”.Polls show about seven in 10 Republicans do not accept Biden was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election – and the party’s base is increasingly punishing any Republican politicians who try to hold Trump to account for the lies. Liz Cheney, vice-chair of the committee investigating 6 January, will lose her seat in Congress after a primary challenge.Ahead of next month’s midterm elections, a number of Republican candidates who doubt the 2020 election results, or in some cases actively worked to overturn them, are running for positions in which they would have tremendous influence over how votes are cast and counted.Trump privately admitted he lost 2020 election, top aides testifyRead moreFontaine admits he cannot say all is well. The former adviser to the late Republican senator John McCain says there are “reasons to worry” – but he takes heart from the fact “the institutions of democracy have prevailed every time thus far”.“Trump himself claims that he didn’t lose the election, but who’s in the White House? Joe Biden, and Trump’s at Mar-a-Lago,” says Fontaine, who has also worked at the state department, the national security council, and on the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.“I mean, his own vice-president certified the election for the actual winner. The courts, including judges appointed by Donald Trump himself, dismissed frivolous claims.”But some US allies worry the events have seriously damaged the west’s credibility. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, revealed foreign leaders had told him of their disenchantment. “Many are saying to us: ‘Is this model so great? You seem so unhappy. We watched what happened at the Capitol last year, we can see you at home, extremism is on the rise everywhere. You can’t solve extreme poverty. You’re arguing over the climate.’”Credibility gapThe former Labor prime minister Paul Keating argues the US has lost the credibility to champion democracy.“This idea that the US is an exceptional power, that they have God’s ear, proselytising democracy, was fine in the 20th century,” Keating said in a speech this week.“The 20th century was owned by the US [but] the 21st century belongs to someone else.”Keating renewed his longstanding criticism of Australia’s decision to draw even closer to the US through the Aukus nuclear-powered submarine deal, arguing it would increase the chances of being drawn in to an ill-advised war with China. He said the US was “not interested in thinking allies” but wanted “dummies”.But Keating’s view of the strategic circumstances is not shared by senior members of the current generation of political leaders, who are alarmed by China and Russia’s newly inked “no limits” partnership and continue to see the US as critical to Australia’s national security and the stability of the Indo-Pacific.‘Do you believe this?’: New video shows how Nancy Pelosi took charge in Capitol riotRead moreThe opposition leader and former defence minister, Peter Dutton, said this week that it was “a very uncertain world” and Australia needed “strong and powerful friends like the United States”.On a visit to Washington, the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, predicted the relationship would remain strong “no matter who is in the leadership positions of either country”.Chalmers would not reveal whether the Australian government was concerned about the possibility Trump could run again in 2024: “We play the cards that we’re dealt and we don’t involve ourselves in the domestic politics of other countries.”Fontaine believes it is too soon to know whether Trump will run again or the likelihood of a victory – but argues “checks and balances” remain intact.“And it turns out that even when they’re tested in some pretty significant ways they have held, so I think they are likely to hold into the future,” Fontaine says. “The best scenario will be: let’s not test them.”TopicsUS politicsDonald TrumpJoe BidenPaul KeatingPeter DuttonAustralian politicsMarise PaynefeaturesReuse this content More

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      Rising US isolationism means Australia must become more resilient and autonomous, thinktank warns

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      Rising US isolationism means Australia must become more resilient and autonomous, thinktank warnsUnited States Studies Centre finds Americans are not convinced the Indo-Pacific should be a priority region for the Biden administration

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      Voters in the US are not convinced the Indo-Pacific should be a priority region for the Biden administration, and isolationist sentiment in the country continues to rise, according to a new analysis by the United States Studies Centre.The new USSC State of the United States report, to be launched in Canberra at an event on Wednesday with the defence minister, Peter Dutton, Labor frontbenchers Penny Wong and Brendan O’Connor, and US congressman Joe Courtney, finds support for the US alliance with Canberra remains strong.But the USSC’s chief executive, Prof Simon Jackman, says the US in 2022 is “consumed by a fractious debate about its role in the world, and is almost paralysed by disunity”. The new analysis draws on YouGov polling undertaken in the US and Australia last December. The US sample size was 1,200 and the Australian sample size was 1,211.The data shows isolationist beliefs in the US have increased steadily from 28% of respondents in 2019 to 40% at the end of 2021. The new report also notes that prior to 2016, the American National Election Studies – a time series dating back to 1952 – has never found more than 30% of Americans holding isolationist beliefs.Dutton dials back language on Australia defending Taiwan in a potential war with ChinaRead moreWhile Joe Biden has stressed the importance of nurturing alliances since winning the White House, voters in the US appear more ambivalent. The largest group of respondents – around half or more – felt alliances made the US neither more nor less secure. This suggests, the report says, “the majority of Americans are unsure about the value of US alliances”.As well as growing isolationism, there is also pervasive pessimism. Voters in both the US and Australia also believe America’s best days are behind them (60% of respondents in the US and 70% in Australia).The research suggests people who voted for Biden in 2020 “are now just as pessimistic about the future of the United States as they were during the Trump administration, while the Republicans’ preferred candidate for the 2024 presidential election remains Donald Trump”.Jackman says the analysis suggests the US currently lacks the national unity that leaders of Australia’s defence and diplomatic establishment view as the critical ingredients of our national defence.“The implication for Australia is clear,” Jackman said. “While the US alliance remains Australia’s single most valuable strategic asset, Australia must continue to rapidly evolve its own capabilities, resilience and autonomy.”Jackman said realising the potential of the Aukus partnership would “require unrelenting focus and attention in Washington, cutting through domestic political division, bureaucratic inertia, vested interests and the many competing demands for the US attention and focus”.
      Sign up to receive an email with the top stories from Guardian Australia every morning
      Sign up to receive an email with the top stories from Guardian Australia every morningThe USSC analysis suggests people in the US are hesitant about sharing technology, like nuclear submarine capability, with allies, including Australia (35% of respondents said it was acceptable to share with Australia).Morrison decries ‘arc of autocracy’ reshaping world as he pledges to build nuclear submarine baseRead moreThe new analysis does show there is bipartisan consensus in the US that China is a major problem. New research from another leading Australian foreign policy thinktank, the Lowy Institute, to be released on Wednesday, looks at China’s future growth trajectory.A paper co-authored by Lowy’s lead economist, Roland Rajah, says China will likely experience a substantial long-term growth slowdown owing to demographic decline, the limits of capital-intensive growth, and a gradual deceleration in productivity growth.Rajah suggests annual economic growth in China will slow to about 3% by 2030 and 2% by 2040, while averaging 2–3% overall from now until 2050. The country remains on track to be the world’s largest economy, “but it would never enjoy a meaningful lead over the US and would remain far less prosperous and productive per person even by mid-century”.TopicsAustralian security and counter-terrorismAustralian foreign policyUS foreign policyAsia PacificUS politicsAukusJoe BidennewsReuse this content More