Business

Subterms

    More stories

    • 138 Shares169 Views

      in US Politics

      Cooking the books? Fears Trump could target statisticians if data disappoints

      by

      Summarizing his befuddlement with numbers, Mark Twain observed that there were “lies, damned lies and statistics”.The acerbic phrase later become so deeply embedded in popular consciousness that it once formed the title to an episode of The West Wing, NBC’s portrayal of a fictitious US president played by Martin Sheen.Now professional economists and number-crunchers fear the aphorism could become a White House theme in real life. Buffeted by global markets and public opinion – both of which show a wary skepticism of Donald Trump’s affinity for trade wars – the president may be about to turn his renowned hostility to truths at odds with what he believes towards public servants charged with producing accurate information.A proposed rule change making it easier to fire civil servants deemed to be “intentionally subverting presidential directives” could pave the way for the White House to fire statisticians employed to produce objective data on the economy but whose figures prove politically inconvenient, experts warn.Statistics released by agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are used by the Federal Reserve Bank to set inflation policy and interest rates. They also form the basis on which businesses and investors take decisions.The US’s global reputation as a stable economic power and a reliable partner goes hand-in-hand with its long history of producing accurate data, dating back to the establishment of the BLS in 1884. Interfere with the latter and you risk sacrificing the former, experts warn.But with Trump under pressure to explain shrinking gross domestic product (GDP) figures amid economists’ warnings that tariffs could trigger a recession, the administration could use new employment rules to pressure workers into “cooking the books”.“There are a number of changes to the civil service that make it much easier for the administration to try to interfere with the activities of the statistical agencies and that worries me,” said Erica Groshen, a specialist in government statistics at Cornell University.While acknowledging that there is as yet “no evidence” the Trump administration has done so, Groshen, a former commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), fears a new rule proposed last month by the White House’s office of personnel management threatens the future integrity of federal agencies’ figures.The change, based on an executive order signed by Trump on 20 January immediately after his inauguration, would reclassify about 50,000 as-yet-unspecified permanent civil servant positions to “policy/career” category, thus enabling their removal for “poor performance or misconduct”.The precise roles to be so redefined have yet to be revealed but Groshen fears statistic specialists will be in the administration’s crosshairs.“Bureau of Labor Statistics’ leaders could be fired for releasing or planning to release jobs or inflation statistics unfavorable to the president’s policy agenda,” she wrote in a briefing paper that urges organizations dependent on BLS figures to submit comments criticizing the proposal.“By making it easier to remove employees if a president determines that they are interfering with his or her policies, it increases the potential for passivity or political loyalty to be prioritized over expertise and experience.”Trump regularly cast doubt on the accuracy of economic data when in opposition – calling positive BLS jobs figures during the Obama and Biden administrations “fake” but hailing them as accurate when they painted a rosy picture of the economy during his first presidency.Last month, when GDP figures showed an economic contraction during the first 100 days – partly fueled by tariffs – Trump put the blame on Biden.“We had numbers that, despite what we were handed, we turned them around and we were getting them really turned around,” he told reporters.The commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick – who has direct responsibility over many of the statistical agencies – has suggested changing the way GDP is calculated in a way that might provide more upbeat figures but which would mark a departure from established practice and international standards.Diluting data agencies’ impartiality risks adding the US to the category of countries which have had the veracity of their economic statistics openly doubted, critics say. Groshen cited Argentina, whose official inflation figures were rejected as false by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Greece, where government statisticians were said to have miraculously made inflation and disqualifyingly high budget deficits “disappear” to enable it to join the European Union’s single currency, the euro, in the late 1990s.The sleight of hand had dire consequences. The 2008 global financial crash propelled the country’s economy into a tail-spin, forcing it to seek huge loans from the IMF and the EU, which were only given on condition of harsh austerity measures and cuts to public services.Popular anger over the conditions in Greece destabilised establishment political parties and led to a rise in support for radical and populist alternatives, including the leftwing Syriza, which won power in 2015. Frequent elections and changes of government since have raised concerns about the health of the country’s democracy.The IMF also censured Argentina and threatened it with expulsion in 2013 after officials were found to have been grossly understating the inflation rate for the previous six years.Argentina – historically one of the IMF’s biggest borrowers – did not receive another loan from the organisation until 2018. That loan, followed by another in 2022, failed to stabilise the country’s economy and in 2023, Javier Milei, a far-right candidate and professed admirer of Trump, was elected president pledging drastic spending cuts to address its chronic economic problems.Last month saw the fund agree to another $20bn bailout for Milei’s government.Despite these baleful precedents, the Trump administration’s sensitivity to economic figures indicating a tariff-driven slowdown creates a potential spur to follow a similar path, argued Erasmus Kersting, an economics professor at Villanova University.“I would say that there’s definitely an incentive to cook the books, but I don’t think that it is going to be very easy or feasible to do,” he said, citing the US’s long tradition of producing accurate economic figures.“The Bureau of Economic Analysis would essentially need to be silenced or defunded and replaced with some other statistical agency, which would then result in different figures. The same would be true of the Bureau of Labor statistics.”Accurate and unbiased figures are crucial in helping the Federal Reserve form sound policy, Kersting said. In their absence, Trump might have more scope to attack the Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, who he has already accused of “playing politics” by not bowing to his demand to cut interest rates.Kitty Richards, a former treasury and White House official under the Biden and Obama administrations, said data collection had been impaired by Elon Musk’s attacks on federal agencies under the auspices of the unofficial “department of government efficiency,” or Doge.“We should view attacks on government data collection as hand in glove with attacks on journalism,” said Richards, now a senior fellow at Groundwork Collaborative, a thinktank. “Undermining data collection and casting doubt on data that is released is part of a program of undermining the public’s ability to learn the truth.”Even a temporary interruption of the US’s established data-collecting capacity would be a “real tragedy” and lead to a permanent loss of knowledge, she said. “You can’t go back and fix it. If you have a data series stretching back 50 years, then it gets cut for two or three years, you no longer have that 50-year data series. You’ve lost knowledge forever.”Greshen, who is calling on users of government statistics to object to the proposed civil service changes before a 30-day window expires on 23 May, said the fate of US democracy could hinge on the continued production of accurate figures.“In a democracy, you want to be feeding people the right information so they will make the right choices. But if the goal is to destroy democracy, you’d want to control the statistics to fit your story … you want to be promoting your own version of reality.” More

    • 163 Shares169 Views

      in US Politics

      This pause in the trade war will be brief. Small businesses, plan accordingly

      by

      Donald Trump’s massive Chinese tariffs are on pause. The media debated. Wall Street rejoiced. Many of my clients breathed a sigh of relief. Big retailers jumped for joy. But for how long?For starters, the tariffs that weren’t paused – a 10% levy on all Chinese goods, plus a bonus 20% tax that somehow relates to fentanyl, are still in place. When you take into consideration existing tariffs on steel from previous Trump and Biden administrations, the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods is actually closer to 40%, according to an analysis done by the Wall Street Journal.That’s a big number. Maybe that won’t deter people from buying underwear at Target. But for companies that rely on steel and aluminum, semiconductors, synthetic fabrics, plastics, minerals, coatings and solvents as well as certain bearings, motors, pumps and parts, a 30-40% hike is a major impact on their margins, which will affect their spending and investments. Ultimately, the costs of the end products that use these materials will also rise as companies simply pass them down.Just as important, Trump’s animosity towards China – unfounded or not – isn’t going to just magically disappear. He’s called the Chinese cheaters, polluters and thieves. And his past actions – particularly in his first administration – do not bode well for a quick resolution to this issue.In 2018, the Trump administration not only imposed onerous tariffs on China but also issued some very harsh requirements to address trading issues with its closest economic rival.There were specific quotas set to limit our trade deficit. There were demands made to reduce the Chinese requirement forcing American companies to share or transfer technology with their Chinese counterparts. There were rules aimed at stopping the alleged (ha, ha) stealing of data and intellectual property by the Chinese.The problem is that none of this happened. What happened – shortly after the negotiations started – was Covid. And then 2020 and a new administration. But don’t think that Trump won’t raise these issues again. He will, and when this happens we’ll be back to the same place we started: excessive tariffs and a trade war with China.That doesn’t mean that businesses are completely stuck. Many – those that have the funds – are using the tariff suspension to buy up products from China like it’s a fire sale at Costco on Black Friday. Others are contracting with bonded warehouses and storage facilities in free-trade zones to accept products that are temporarily tariff-free, hoping that when they pull materials from these storage units those rates will have come down.I have clients who are aggressively searching for alternative suppliers. I have others who are bringing their assembly and manufacturing back to the US. Those that aren’t able to make these kinds of investments are trying to work out how and how much they can change pricing and what the market will take. A few have already created special line items on their invoices to separate out the tariff charge in an effort to say: “Hey, don’t blame me for this stuff!”My smartest clients started doing this stuff the day after Trump was elected. They listened to what he’d said during the previous couple of years. They read the writing on the wall. Now they’re ahead of the game. Good for them.Companies that didn’t do this – especially small businesses that have fewer resources and are more reliant on just a supplier or two – are in trouble, particularly if they buy from China. For any business still reliant on Chinese suppliers and markets, this pause isn’t going to last as long as you think. There will be a lot more coming in this trade war – and let’s hope it doesn’t turn into an actual war. The outlook is precarious and risky. Trump is volatile and emotional and has a history of knocking China. Plan accordingly. More

    • 138 Shares169 Views

      in US Politics

      Gone in 40 days: how Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariff assault unraveled

      by

      Donald Trump hailed a new chapter in the US’s economic history on 2 April, dubbed “liberation day” by his administration, as he announced plans for an extraordinary barrage of US tariffs on the world. The chapter lasted 40 days.The page has already been turned. But the impact of those six chaotic weeks, from higher prices to slowing growth, is still unfolding – and the US president is already threatening further adjustments. The story continues.Trump had been steered away from his aggressive instincts on trade during his first term, and persuaded to walk back several tariff threats in the opening months of his second. But back in early April, he was determined to plough ahead.“April 2nd, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America’s destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again,” Trump declared at an event in the White House Rose Garden, before an audience of his top officials and supporters.The measures were blunt and severe: a blanket 10% tariff on all imported goods, and higher individualized rates, of up to 50%, on dozens of markets – those of economic allies and rivals alike – deemed to have treated the US poorly on trade.‘Be cool’First came the questions. How exactly did the Trump administration come up with such an array of specific duties to impose upon goods from so many countries and territories? And why was a group of barren, uninhabited islands near Antarctica among them?Then came the panic. Global stock markets tanked, with Wall Street enduring its steepest falls since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic five years ago, as the president repeatedly insisted he was serious this time.Trump’s officials were sent out to hold the line. “The announcement today is the most significant action on global trade policy that has taken place in our lifetimes,” said Stephen Miller, his deputy chief of staff for policy. “We’re just going to have to wait and see” what happens, the treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, told Bloomberg. One thing’s for sure, the commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, told CNN: “The president is not going to back off.”On day five of the new chapter, the 10% baseline tariffs came into force. On day seven, the higher, individualized rates followed. Beijing vowed to retaliate. Business leaders, including some who had backed Trump’s run for the White House, urged him to reconsider.A sell-off in treasury bonds, typically deemed a safe haven during periods of economic volatility, took hold. “BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding a few minutes later: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT”This advice seemed prescient four hours later. Seven days into the new chapter, with his individualized tariffs imposed for all of 13 hours, Trump announced a 90-day pause – in effect reducing the universal duty on all US imports from almost all countries to 10% – and markets surged higher.Almost all countries, that is, except China. Beijing’s pledge to hit back infuriated the president, who blamed its “lack of respect” as he announced a new US tariff of 125% (in effect, once other duties were included, 145%) on Chinese goods. It retaliated in kind.Getting yippyThe same officials who had been dispatched to defend Trump’s initial plan were sent out again, to explain his latest climbdown.“You have been watching the greatest economic master strategy from an American President in history,” Miller claimed on X.“Many of you in the media clearly missed The Art of the Deal,” the press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, scolded reporters, referring to the president’s 1987 bestseller, in which the real estate tycoon presented himself as a consummate dealmaker.While his aides claimed that more than 75 countries had been in touch following his initial tariff announcement, even the president struggled to present the reversal as part of a carefully orchestrated negotiating strategy. Asked what had prompted it, Trump told reporters people had been “getting a little bit yippy” about his plan.But some of the US’s largest companies were still feeling pretty yippy. Apple, for example, relies on factories in China to churn out the iPhone, which is responsible for almost half its business.Late on day 10, away from the noisy press gaggles and all-caps social media posts, US Customs and Border Protection posted a list of products that would be exempt from the Chinese tariffs – including smartphones, computers and semiconductor chips.While the administration had walked back much of Trump’s initial plan, concern lingered over what remained. Trump maintained that high tariffs were the way forward, but fears of widespread shortages and dramatic price increases loomed large. Polling made clear consumers were increasingly concerned.On day 28, at the end of a cabinet meeting, the president tried to play down the risks of his assault on China. “Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know,” he said. “And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”Blame gameEarlier that morning, dismal economic figures for the first quarter had underlined how – as the last chapter drew to a close – the mere threat of Trump’s economic assault appeared to dent growth. US gross domestic product (GDP) shrank for the first time in three years, abruptly turning negative after a spell of robust growth as imports surged 41% while companies scrambled to pre-empt tariffs.Trump raced to pin the blame on his predecessor. “I think the good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy,” he told NBC’s Meet the Press.Many economists said the growth decline in the first quarter, as firms braced for Trump’s new chapter, raised troubling questions about the second, when the president finally launched it at his “liberation day” event.Aside from dolls, the administration started to indicate it might be willing to adjust tariffs on China that were hitting goods – like baby car seats and cribs – that the US almost entirely imports from the country. Such exemptions were “under consideration”, Bessent told Congress, potentially averting a spike in prices for young families.But as the weeks drew on, after promising his trade strategy would prompt countries around the world to trip over themselves to strike deals with the US, Trump was finding it harder to explain why none had materialized.On day 34, as questions mounted, he complained the media had become fixated. “You keep writing about deals, deals,” he said, adding that he wished journalists would stop asking. “Some deals” would be signed, the president said, but tariffs were a “much bigger” focus.On day 36, the first deal was declared done. Trump summoned back reporters to unveil what he called a “maxed-out deal that we’re going to make bigger” with the UK. In reality, there was still work to do: both he and Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, conceded certain details had yet to be finalized.By the next morning, Trump’s focus had returned to China. Bessent was preparing for talks with the country’s officials in Geneva, fueling hopes that the world’s two largest economies might lower their eye-watering tariffs. “80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B,” the president wrote on social media.‘This is going to crush us’Trump was also watching the liberal MSNBC network, where the business commentator Stephanie Ruhle argued his strategy on tariffs was not working. “You’re seeing day in, day out, more business leaders – whether it’s Warren Buffett, or Jamie Dimon, or Ken Griffin, on big global stages – saying this is going to crush us economically,” she said. “And then you’ve got congressmen, senators, from every state saying to this White House: our small businesses are … dying here.“I’m not saying Donald Trump has changed what he thinks in his heart. But he’s backed into a corner, and he needs to get off this crazy tariff train, and he knows it.”Trump punched back. “Few people know Stephanie Ruhle, but I do, and she doesn’t have what it takes,” he wrote on Truth Social, accusing her of lies. “We’re going to make a fortune with Tariffs, only smart people understand that, and Stephanie was never known as a ‘High IQ’ person.”If only smart people understood the US stood to make a fortune from tariffs, they might have been surprised by what happened next.Away from TV studios, some of the most senior people in the White House, including the chief of staff, Susie Wiles, reportedly started to warn the president of risks not unlike those laid out by Ruhle. “The key argument was that this was beginning to hurt Trump’s supporters – Trump’s people,” one person briefed on internal conversations told the Washington Post. “It gave Susie a key window.”On day 40, after discussions in Geneva, Bessent confirmed that US and Chinese officials would drastically reduce the tariffs they had aggressively ratcheted up just a few weeks before. With US tariffs on Chinese goods falling to 30%, Trump hailed a “total reset” in relations between Washington and Beijing.The reversal, although far from a total reset, confined the latest “liberation day” measure to history.2 April 2025, is not yet remembered as the day American industry was reborn. Much of what was announced that afternoon has already died.The page has been turned. On Friday, Trump claimed about 150 countries would soon receive letters “essentially telling” them of new US duty rates on their exports. Many learned of similar rates last month, only for the plan to change in a matter of days.A new chapter, without pomp or ceremony, is now under way. What this one will entail – or how long it lasts – is anyone’s guess. More

    • 138 Shares179 Views

      in US Politics

      Trump announces more than $200bn of deals between US and UAE

      by

      Donald Trump has announced deals totaling more than $200bn between the United States and the United Arab Emirates, including a $14.5bn commitment among Boeing, GE Aerospace and Etihad Airways, as he pledged to strengthen ties between the US and the Gulf state during a multiday trip to the Middle East.The White House said on Thursday that Boeing and GE had received a commitment from Etihad Airways to invest $14.5bn to buy 28 US-made Boeing 787 and 777X aircraft powered by GE engines.“With the inclusion of the next-generation 777X in its fleet plan, the investment deepens the longstanding commercial aviation partnership between the UAE and the United States, fueling American manufacturing, driving exports,” the White House said.Antonoaldo Neves, the CEO of Etihad, said last month that the airline planned to add 20 to 22 new planes to its fleet of roughly 100 aircraft this year, as it aims to expand to more than 170 planes by 2030 and boost Abu Dhabi’s economic diversification strategy.Etihad, which is owned by Abu Dhabi’s $225bn wealth fund ADQ, has been through a multiyear restructuring and management shake-up, but has expanded under Neves.He said that 10 of the new aircraft this year would be Airbus A321LRs, which the carrier launched on Monday and will start operating in August. The remainder include six Airbus A350s and four Boeing 787s.The news follows a Wednesday announcement that Boeing had landed its largest-ever deal for wide-body airplanes, after securing an order for $96bn worth of Boeing jets from Qatar.The deal-making comes as the US president nears the ends of his multiday tour in the Middle East. Controversy has dogged the visit after the president announced earlier this week that he planned to accept a $400m luxury jumbo jet from the government of Qatar, raising numerous ethical concerns.Trump has since doubled down on his plans to accept the airplane as the new Air Force One, and eventually transfer it to his presidential library. “We’re the United States of America. I believe we should have the most impressive plane,” he said on Wednesday. More

    • 138 Shares109 Views

      in US Politics

      ‘So many are devastated’: Trump’s federal firings and their ripple effect

      by

      Naomi Anderson was on leave looking after her young baby when she was told her US Department of Agriculture job helping farmers in developing countries was being cut. A former volunteer with the Peace Corps, which sends young Americans overseas to projects in emerging economies, Anderson had expected to spend her whole career in international development.“I had taken this job two years ago expecting to stay here for at least 10 years, and you know, we had started to make a community and build up our life here. In January, we had started looking at buying a home,” she says.Now Anderson is having to consider giving up the apartment in the Washington DC commuter town of Reston, Virginia, that she shares with her husband and their four-month-old baby and almost two-year-old toddler.“Financially, it’s a little bit precarious, and honestly we’re not sure what we’re going to do,” says Anderson, who is also an activist with the local branch of the AFSCME union and dabbles in selling political merchandise. “We’re thinking about moving back to Ohio, where I’m from, where my family is. You know, it’s a lot cheaper there.”Anderson is far from alone. “In our apartment complex, there’s been lots of yard sales, people selling things and moving away. It really does seem like people are just picking up and leaving, because it’s too expensive to live here without a job,” she says.Tough life-decisions like these have been forced on hundreds of thousands of former federal employees in the past couple of months, as the so-called department of government efficiency (Doge), which is headed up by Donald Trump’s favourite tech billionaire, Elon Musk, has slashed jobs in a cost-cutting spree.Data from the latest monthly Challenger jobs report suggests Doge has been responsible for 281,452 job cuts so far – almost eight times the number of workers the government let go in the entire year to April 2024.Brendan Demich is among those to be dismissed, losing his job as an engineer at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. All his colleagues working on mine safety, as well as those in their sister laboratory testing equipment such as respirators, are also leaving – more than 200 in total – as part of a wave of cuts initiated by Trump’s health secretary, Robert F Kennedy Jr.“So many people are devastated,” says Demich, chief steward of the local AFGE union branch. He says so many workers have been removed at once that their colleagues have barely been able to give them any kind of send-off. “It’s just unceremoniously leaving, because they had their package processed and they had to walk out the door.”Each of these cuts has its own human impact, but experts are warning of a growing risk that they combine to trigger an economic retrenchment – particularly in areas with a heavy concentration of government jobs.View image in fullscreenLiz Shuler, the president of the AFL-CIO federation of 63 trade unions, which together represent more than 15 million US workers, is trying to build a nationwide campaign to highlight the devastating impact.“The trick is connecting the dots because there’s already a national narrative around what’s happening but it’s not quite being felt yet,” Shuler says. “Elon [Musk] has his ‘department of government efficiency’. We established the ‘department of people who work for a living’. That’s kind of cheeky, but it’s kind of serious, because we’re saying we’re the ones working on the frontlines. We know what’s efficient and what’s not.“Obviously as the labour federation we’re worried about jobs and people’s livelihoods, but it’s also connected to community, and the fact the economy is being impacted in such a stark way, that ripples out across all of the industries that we represent,” she adds.These ripples are being felt especially strongly in the towns and counties around Washington DC, where job losses and government cuts crop up constantly in conversation.Kate Bates is the president of the chamber of commerce in affluent Arlington, Virginia, across the Potomac River from the US capital. She compares the current uncertainty to the pandemic, “but during Covid, the federal government was the backstop, whereas right now it’s the federal government that’s causing a lot of this,” she says.Bates reports that her members are warning of a slowdown across real estate and hospitality, as well as among government contractors, with several reporting they have already had to make job cuts.“What we hear from a lot of people is that if they could plan for the cuts, they would be in an OK position, right? But because things are changing, going back and forth, that’s causing a lot of stress,” she says.View image in fullscreenBusinesses that rely on government workers for custom are also feeling the chill. Saamir Nizam, the general manager of Arlington’s Barley Mac restaurant, which is part of a small family-owned chain, has noticed trade declining in just about every one of their usual customer groups.The nearby hotels are less occupied; bookings for “happy hour parties” by the accountants and consultants who serve the federal government are down by two-thirds; and many older local residents have been spooked by market volatility.“We can only do so much to turn things around: we can’t pull people to Washington, or convince companies to go out and do things,” Nizam says. “Barley Mac serves great food, it gives great service, but it exists, like many restaurants, on the financial margin. And if the whole year is on the margin then restaurants like ours will go under, because we’re not part of a huge national chain which has deep pockets.”View image in fullscreenJess Miller, who set up Rock Spring Real Estate Solutions a couple of years ago, has been hosting a breakfast roundtable for clients, on the top floor of an as yet unoccupied new office block in Arlington.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionShe has noticed clients responding to the shifting climate, pulling out of deals and hoping to negotiate unusually short leases. The owners of this building are splitting the floors instead of looking for one anchor tenant.“Just how they’re making decisions is different – the cutbacks we’re seeing,” Miller says. “It hit the NGOs first and then it hit, you know, the corporations and the contractors, and it’s a lot of the senior management.”Katherine D’Zmura Friedman is a co-founder and the chief executive of Thumbprint, an Arlington-based startup offering an artificial intelligence platform for designing office layouts.View image in fullscreen“There’s no universe in which something like the last few months happens and there’s not serious consequences,” she says. “We’ve had family friends, we’ve had neighbours lose their jobs, and these are not people who would normally be subject to layoffs. These are people who are at the peak of their career, and hyper-specialised.”As far as the business effects are concerned, D’Zmura Friedman says: “Certainly on the commercial side, there’s been hesitancy about launching into things.”At her office nearby, Renata Briggman, a residential estate agent, plays down the idea that the housing market in Arlington could be hit, pointing to the many local employers broadly unaffected by federal spending – such as Amazon, which is headquartered here.However, she does acknowledge signs of change. “It’s definitely shifting. We’re not seeing any fire sales, it’s too soon for that. It’s very, very slow, and we’re just going to start seeing it, it’s just on the cusp … end of June, we’ll have a better idea.”View image in fullscreenSuch challenges are being replicated across the region. Jimmy Olevson, the president and chief executive of National Capital Bank, which serves Washington DC and the surrounding areas, says the bank is not yet seeing signs of financial distress, such as rising arrears, but the mood is “uneasy”. Many customers who have had a recent mortgage application approved seem to have put house-hunting on hold.Some experts fear this widespread mood of unease bodes badly for the coming months. Analysis by Dr João Ferreira, an expert in regional economics at the University of Virginia, suggests more than 320,000 people in the state are employed directly by the federal government – and another 441,000 jobs depend on taxpayer-funded contracts, of the kind that are being cut.In some sectors – construction, for example – the same firms fretting about whether their contract will be cut are also contending with the rising price of materials, as a result of tariffs. Although some of the border taxes have been paused or reduced, those restrictions that remain mean costs are still far higher than at the start of the year.In theory, the Trump administration could lift the gloom by drawing a line under budget cuts as Musk heads back to his day job running the electric carmaker Tesla. But key members of the cabinet, including Kennedy and the defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, have boasted of how much they plan to slash from their budgets – and White House trade policy continues to see-saw.Ferreira says: “I think, as an economist, I’ve never seen so many things happening at the same time. But they all lead to the same direction, and that’s a recession.”He says Virginia has often been cushioned from economic downturns in the past by federal funding, but in this cycle he expects the state to lead the way. “We definitely might see that Virginia, and other regions like Maryland, will be the frontrunners in this recession period,” Ferreira says.Meanwhile, for many of the affected individuals, the future looks highly uncertain – despite the US treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s suggestion they should go work in manufacturing. “For us on our team, we work in international development,” says Anderson. “We have a background in humanitarian work, and the Trump administration is trying to cut international foreign aid. So where do you go from there?” More

    • 163 Shares99 Views

      in US Politics

      China and US agree 90-day pause to trade war initiated by Donald Trump

      by

      China and the US have agreed a 90-day pause to the deepening trade war that has threatened to upend the global economy, with reciprocal tariffs to be lowered by 115%.Speaking to the media after talks in Geneva, the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said both sides had shown “great respect” in the negotiations.Bessent said: “The consensus from both delegations this weekend was neither side wants a decoupling.”The 90-day lowering of tariffs applies to the duties announced by Donald Trump on 2 April, which ultimately escalated to 125% on Chinese imports, with Beijing responding with equivalent measures.China also imposed non-tariff measures, such as restricting the export of critical minerals that are essential to US manufacturing of hi-tech goods.The US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, said China’s retaliation had been disproportionate and amounted to an effective embargo on trade between the world’s two biggest economies.With the 115% deduction, Chinese duties on US goods will be lowered to 10%, while the US tax on Chinese goods will be lowered to 30%. That is because the US tariffs include a 20% rate imposed by Trump before the latest trade war, which the president said was related to China’s role in the US’s fentanyl crisis. The fentanyl-related tariff will still apply.A spokesperson for China’s ministry of commerce said: “This move meets the expectations of producers and consumers in both countries, as well as the interests of both nations and the common interest of the world.“We hope that the US side will, based on this meeting, continue to move forward in the same direction with China, completely correct the erroneous practice of unilateral tariff hikes, and continually strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation.”China’s yuan jumped to a six-month high on the signal that the trade war would be paused. Up to 16m jobs were at risk in China, according to some estimates, while the US faced rising inflation and empty shelves thanks to dizzying tariffs on the biggest supplier of US goods.Bessent said he was impressed by the level of Chinese engagement on the fentanyl issue during the talks in Switzerland. “For the first time the Chinese side understood the magnitude of what is happening in the US,” Bessent said.A joint statement published by the US and China on Monday said that both sides would “continue to advance related work in a spirit of mutual openness, continuous communication, cooperation and mutual respect”.William Xin, the chair of the hedge fund Spring Mountain Pu Jiang Investment Management, told Reuters: “The result far exceeds market expectations. Previously, the hope was just that the two sides can sit down to talk, and the market had been very fragile. Now, there’s more certainty. Both China stocks and the yuan will be in an upswing for a while.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionHu Xijin, the former editor of the nationalist Chinese tabloid the Global Times, said on social media the agreement was a “great victory for China in upholding the principles of equality and mutual respect”. Hu noted on Weibo that the recently agreed UK-US trade deal maintained the US’s 10% tariff on UK imports, “while the UK did not implement reciprocal measures”.Wang Wen, the head of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, said: “This is an unexpected achievement in Sino-US tariff negotiations.”However, Wang also urged caution, as he said the agreement “does not represent the resolution of the structural contradictions between China and the United States, nor does it mean that there will be no friction and serious differences between China and the United States in the future”.Stock markets across Europe rose in the aftermath of the US-China announcement. Germany’s DAX index jumped by 1.5%, with Mercedes-Benz, Daimler Trucks and BMW among the biggest risers. France’s CAC index rose by 1.2%.Additional research by Lillian Yang More

    • 175 Shares169 Views

      in US Politics

      Pharmaceutical stocks slide as Trump vows to cut US prescription drug prices ‘by 30-80%’

      by

      Donald Trump has promised to use his executive powers to cut the price of prescription drugs in the US in an attempt to bring them more in line with other countries, triggering a sharp fall in drugmakers’ share prices.The US president has said he will sign an order on Monday that will reduce prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices “almost immediately” by “30% to 80%”.Writing on Truth Social, his social media platform, Trump said on Sunday it was “difficult to explain and very embarrassing” why drug prices in the US were higher compared with many other countries.“The Pharmaceutical/Drug Companies would say, for years, that it was Research and Development Costs, and that all of these costs were, and would be, for no reason whatsoever, borne by the ‘suckers’ of America, ALONE,” he wrote.He said he would introduce a “most favoured nation” policy whereby the US pays “the same price as the nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the World”.The comments triggered a sell-off in pharmaceutical stocks on Monday amid worries profits could be hit if firms have to cut prices in the US.In London, shares in the pharmaceutical companies AstraZeneca and GSK fell in early trading by as much as 5% and 3.2% respectively. Shares in Denmark’s Novo Nordisk which makes the weight loss and anti-diabetes drugs Wegovy and Ozempic, dropped by 7.5% in Copenhagen, while the Swiss group Roche Holdings fell by 3.6%.In South Korea, shares in SK Biopharmaceuticals and Samsung Biologics fell by 2.1% and 4.7% respectively. In Hong Kong, the cancer drug maker BeiGene dropped by nearly 9% and Innovent Biologics fell by 5.7%.In Japan, the pharmaceutical sector index fell by more than 4%, while Indian pharma stocks also dropped.Alex Schriver, a senior vice-president at Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, said: “Government price-setting in any form is bad for American patients. At a time when we are facing growing competition from China, policymakers should focus on fixing the flaws in the US system, not importing failed policies from abroad.”European drugmakers have been urging the EU to allow higher medicine prices, warning that without stronger investment incentives, Europe would fall further behind the US.Threats of US tariffs on pharmaceutical products have prompted a number of firms to announce manufacturing investments in the country, including Switzerland’s Novartis and Roche, and the US firms Johnson & Johnson and Gilead Sciences. Trump has hinted at a reprieve for companies, saying they would be given “a lot of time” to shift operations to the US before facing levies.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump targeted high drug costs during his first administration, which aimed to cap prices for certain medicines under Medicare. However, the move was struck down in federal court after a challenge from drug companies.The American government already negotiates prices for some of the most expensive medicines used in Medicare, a federal health insurance programme, under Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Medicare covers 66 million Americans, mostly aged 65 or over.Trump did not specify on Sunday whether his executive order would apply to Medicare, Medicaid or other government health programmes.He suggested that industry lobbyists had been unsuccessful in the White House despite the fact that big pharmaceutical companies and industry bodies had made donations to his inauguration.“Campaign Contributions can do wonders, but not with me, and not with the Republican party. We are going to do the right thing, something that the Democrats have fought for many years,” he said. More