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      Tuesday’s primaries offered a glint of hope for Democrats this fall | Lloyd Green

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      Tuesday’s primaries offered a glint of hope for Democrats this fallLloyd GreenKansas voters affirmed a women’s right to choose. Meanwhile, Republicans across the US elevated extremist candidates who may be unpopular in general elections Republican candidates from Arizona to Pennsylvania ought to worry. On Tuesday, voters in Kansas rejected efforts to gut a woman’s right to choose. In 2020, Donald Trump trounced Joe Biden there 56-42. Two years later, an anti-choice referendum went down in defeat 59-41. Suburban moms and dads had thundered; turnout soared. The supreme court’s wholesale attack on Roe backfired.The competing opinions authored by Justices Alito, Thomas and Kavanaugh may gift the Democrats a two-seat gain in the Senate, and doom Republican pick-ups of governorships in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Grasp more than you can hold, and you will be left with nothing, the Talmud says. On primary day, the high court’s decision in Dobbs seems to have energized plenty of otherwise loyal Republicans. By the numbers, 65% of Americans believe the constitution enshrines a right of privacy even as they hold doubts about abortion.Trump-endorsed Senate hopefuls JD Vance (Ohio), Mehmet Oz (Pennsylvania), Herschel Walker (Georgia) and Blake Masters (Arizona) must now answer for the Republicans’ war on autonomy. Vance also wants to ban pornography as he gives a greenlight to guns and embraces Marjorie Taylor Greene. He claims smut harms fertility rates.A recent Fox News poll shows Democrats with double-digit leads in Pennsylvania’s Senate and governor’s races. Doug Mastriano, the Keystone state’s Republican gubernatorial candidate, came under recent fire for his embrace of Christian nationalism and ties with antisemitic figures. And Dr Oz is Dr Oz.Tudor Dixon, the Trump-backed winner of Tuesday’s Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary, believes that a 14-year-old raped by a relative should be forced to carry her pregnancy to term. “Yeah, perfect example,” she told an interviewer.Her remarks now are a centerpiece of incumbent Democrat Gretchen Whitmer’s re-election efforts. Dixon opposes exceptions to an abortion ban in cases of rape and incest. She trailed Whitmer by 11 points in a July poll.The Michigan Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative may also appear on the fall ballot. Once upon a time opponents of Roe claimed the ruling was wrong because it was “anti-democratic”.Adding fuel to this Great Lakes dumpster fire, Matt DePerno, Michigan’s prospective Republican attorney general, openly mused about restricting accessibility to contraception. At a Republican debate, he questioned the validity of Griswold, the pertinent 1965 supreme court ruling. For good measure, DePerno previously spearheaded efforts to undo Biden’s 150,000-vote win in Michigan.Tuesday’s contests were also about the 45th president exacting revenge and promoting the “big lie” – that he was defrauded of victory.To be sure, not all Republicans were buying what the former guy was selling. But he had greater success than Kansas’s pro-lifers. Trumpism remains very much alive.In the state of Washington, incumbents Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse stand on the verge of rebuffing primary bids by Trump-endorsed challengers. Both Representatives Herrera Beutler and Newhouse voted to impeach the ex-reality show host over his role in the January 6 insurrection.On the other hand, Michigan’s Representative Peter Meijer, who voted for Trump’s impeachment, lost to John Gibbs, a Trump-backed challenger. Gibbs had received a boost from congressional Democrats, as part of an audacious strategic move to empower Republicans they think will lose in the general elections. Meijer, a supermarket chain scion, lost by four points.With the rightwing Gibbs as the Republican nominee, the Democrats may actually pick up a House seat. Had Meijer emerged with the Republican nod, he would have been favored. All this raises the question of whether Democratic talk about putting the country ahead of party is partisan blather.Elsewhere, Trump claimed the head of Republican Rusty Bowers, the outgoing speaker of the Arizona senate. He had opposed efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and appeared before the January 6 select committee.Days after Bowers testified, Trump declared: “Bowers must be defeated, and highly respected David Farnsworth is the man to do it.”Farnsworth believes that Satan stole the 2020 election. Really.“This is a real conspiracy headed up by the devil himself,” he explained at a debate.Along with Farnsworth, Mark Finchem, a diehard election denier and conspiracy theorist, notched the Arizona Republican nomination for secretary of state. He too had Trump’s blessing.As for the state’s Republican primary for governor, Kari Lake holds a two-point lead with more than 80% of precincts reporting. Like Finchem and Farnsworth, Lake garnered a Trump endorsement and rejects Biden’s legitimacy as president. Whether she actually wins the primary and can prevail against Democrat Katie Hobbs, the current secretary of state, remains to be seen.With Kansas’s resounding no vote, Democrats have good reason to make abortion a major issue for the midterms. Of course, as Republicans learned on Tuesday, it is all too easy to go off the deep-end.
      Lloyd Green is a regular contributor and served in the Department of Justice from 1990 to 1992
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      Jon Stewart celebrates after Senate passes bill to assist veterans exposed to toxins

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      Jon Stewart celebrates after Senate passes bill to assist veterans exposed to toxinsBill passed after weeks of criticism from veterans’ groups and advocates including the former Daily Show host After a week of anger and criticism from veterans groups and advocates, including the comedian Jon Stewart, Senate Republicans finally agreed to pass a bill that expands healthcare and benefits to veterans exposed to toxins.“I’m not sure I’ve ever seen this situation where people who have already given so much had to fight so hard to get so little,” said Stewart, who joined veterans to push for the bill. “I hope we learned a lesson.”Known as the Pact Act, the bill passed in the Senate on Tuesday night in an 86-11 vote.It will provide assistance to veterans who were exposed to harmful chemicals during their service, such as Agent Orange during the Vietnam war, or toxins from pits used to burn military waste in Iraq and Afghanistan.The Department of Defense estimates that about 3.5 million service members could have been exposed to burn pits in the Middle East. Such chemicals can cause respiratory illnesses and cancer to those exposed, medical experts said.Currently veterans have had to prove that illnesses were connected to their service, and the Department of Veterans Affairs did not consider exposure to toxins a service-related condition. The department has denied about 75% of veterans’ burn pit claims.The Pact Act passed the House last month and had support from a majority of Republican senators until last week, when a coalition of them held up the bill’s passage. The senators said they no longer supported the bill after Democrats announced they reached a deal on a major tax and climate bill on Wednesday.Veteran advocates sharply denounced the Republicans’ U-turn. Stewart called them “stab-vets-in-the-back senators”. Protests erupted outside the Capitol.On Tuesday night, the Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, announced that he and his Republican counterpart, the minority leader, Mitch McConnell, had reached a deal on the bill. At a news conference, McConnell said Republicans’ objections were part of the “legislative process”.“These kind of back and forths happen all the time in the legislative process, you’ve observed that over the years,” he said. “I think in the end, the veterans service organizations will be pleased with the final result.”Joe Biden praised the bill’s passage, saying: “We should all take pride in this moment.” In his most recent State of the Union address earlier this year, the US president mentioned that his son Beau, who served a year-long tour of Iraq and later died of brain cancer, could have been a victim of burn pit toxins.“The Pact Act will be the biggest expansion of [veterans affairs] healthcare in decades,” Biden tweeted. “We’ll never be able to repay the debt we owe to those who have worn the uniform, but today, Congress delivered on a promise to our veterans and their families.”TopicsUS SenateRepublicansDemocratsUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema act out of ego, not principle | Robert Reich

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      Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema act out of ego, not principleRobert ReichIf there’s one thing the two supposedly Democratic senators love, it’s media attention This week, the spotlight once again will be on Democratic senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema (dubbed “Manchinema” by the Washington press corps when the two blocked much of Biden’s agenda).Which is exactly where both of these politicians want it.It’s the Democrats’ last chance for a large package – Manchin agreed last week to $790bn – on the climate and healthcare, financed by a tax increase on the rich and big corporations. But will Sinema go along?It’s been joked that the word “politics” is derived from the Latin “poli”, meaning “many”, and “ticks”, meaning small blood-sucking insects. I don’t hold such a cynical view. But I do know from 50 years’ experience in and around Washington that most of the people who serve in our nation’s capital have very, very large – shall we say? – egos.On Sunday, Manchin made the rounds of all five Sunday morning talkshows. He thereby achieved what’s known as a “full Ginsburg”, after William Ginsburg, the lawyer for Monica Lewinsky, who was the first to appear on all Sunday talkshows, on 1 February 1998.Manchin treated it as a victory lap. He took credit for his newly named “Inflation Reduction Act”. (He refused to allow it to be named “Build Back Better” because he’s still smarting over what he viewed as the Biden administration’s criticism of him for blocking the original BBB.)When Manchin was asked by the Meet the Press host, Chuck Todd, whether he wanted Democrats to keep control of the House and Senate after the midterms, Manchin declined to answer. (Does he want to hold out the possibility of becoming a Republican kingmaker if the Dems lose?)Tellingly, Manchin wouldn’t even use the pronoun “we” when talking about the Democrats.I’ve always made it a point to listen to the pronouns politicians use. The use of pronouns tells you a lot about a politician’s loyalties. Manchin almost never uses “we” when he refers to Democrats. Sometimes, it’s “they”. When Trump was president, he used “we” to refer to the people who voted for him, and “they” for everyone else.Which brings me to Kyrsten Sinema – who uses the pronoun “I” perhaps more frequently than any other contemporary politician. (“I’m always surprised when people say, ‘Oh, she’s an enigma,’” said Sinema in an interview with the Washington Post. “I’m, like, not at all, actually. I’m very straightforward about what I believe in and why I’m doing what I do.”)Yet Sinema appears to be absent when it comes to moral principle. Although not up for re-election until 2024, she is one of the Senate’s major recipients of Wall Street cash. The finance industry has donated $2.2m to her since she took office in 2017.Sinema has obliged by, among other things, refusing to close the so-called “carried interest” tax loophole that mostly benefits private-equity investors and hedge fund managers by treating their pay as capital gains (at a tax rate of 24%) rather than as ordinary income (37%) – even though their pay is ordinary income, since they risk none of their own capital.By contrast, Manchin wants to close the loophole – or nearly so. (Manchin’s bill would lengthen the amount of time private-equity and hedge-fund managers must hold their investments to qualify them for capital gains.)“The only thing I was adamant about was the carried interest,” Manchin told reporters last Thursday. Manchin’s aversion to the loophole isn’t new. Last year he joined two other Senate Democrats in sponsoring a bill to close it.Closing the carried-interest loophole is the only tax increase on rich individuals in Manchin’s compromise bill. The rest of the tax hikes are on corporations.The carried-interest loophole is a blatant giveaway to the super-rich. It has no redeeming social value. Even Trump promised to eliminate it, as did Barack Obama and Joe Biden.Yet carried interest is still in the tax code. That’s because lobbyists for the private-equity and hedge fund industries care about little else and pour lots of money into the campaigns of both Democratic and Republican members of Congress to maintain it. (The Democratic House ways and means committee chair, Richard Neal, is a powerful supporter of the loophole. The private equity industry is one of Neal’s biggest donors.)Sinema’s office says she’s still reviewing Manchin’s bill. How long will Democrats have to wait until she breaks her silence on it?If there’s one thing Sinema loves more than Wall Street dollars, it’s national media attention. So it could be a while.
      Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His new book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com
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      Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan trip puts US analysts and Democrats on edge

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      Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan trip puts US analysts and Democrats on edgeExperts and officials raise concern over timing of trip even as Republicans hail House speaker Typically a plane crash is big news, whereas a plane taking off or landing is not news at all.But the sight on Tuesday of Nancy Pelosi’s US military aircraft touching down at Taipei Songshan airport in Taiwan – smoothly and without incident – was certainly news, and cause for a collective sigh of relief.In this instance, however, the destination is as important as the journey. China claims sovereignty over Taiwan and its bellicose response to the House speaker’s arrival suggested that the risk of unintended consequences remains high. For those who believe a confrontation between the US and China over the self-governing island is one day inevitable, the speaker’s provocation may have just accelerated the timeline.Nancy Pelosi defends Taiwan trip as ‘more important today than ever’ amid China tensions – liveRead morePelosi, second in line to the presidency, defied a series of increasingly stark threats from China that have fuelled tensions. The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, told Joe Biden during a phone call last week that “whoever plays with fire will get burnt”.Biden himself acknowledged that the US military felt it was “not a good idea right now” but also knew better than to try to meddle in the plans of Pelosi, who has long marched to the beat of her own drum.She wrote in the Washington Post: “We cannot stand by as the CCP [Chinese Communist party] proceeds to threaten Taiwan – and democracy itself.“Indeed, we take this trip at a time when the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy. As Russia wages its premeditated, illegal war against Ukraine, killing thousands of innocents – even children – it is essential that America and our allies make clear that we never give in to autocrats.”Even as American democracy crumbles internally, there is nothing like a rallying cry for democracy abroad to bring the major political parties together. Twenty-six Republican senators, including the minority leader, Mitch McConnell, issued a joint statement in support of Pelosi’s visit. Even Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News lauded her.Newt Gingrich, a Republican who was the last House speaker to visit Taiwan in 1997, told the Guardian: “Once it became public, she had to go through with it. Otherwise Xi Jinping would have got the impression that we could be bullied. She had no choice once it was public and it was disappointing to have the Biden administration confused by that reality.”Which is reassuring up to a point, although, as a general rule, earning the full-throated endorsement of McConnell and Gingrich would normally give Pelosi cause to at least take a second look at her course of action. Some analysts believe they have all got it wrong.Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at the Defense Priorities thinktank, said: “This foolish political stunt is unlikely to cause a war in itself, but it will only accelerate the sad process of sleepwalking into a global and national catastrophe at some unspecified time in the future. Preserving Washington’s One China policy and strategic ambiguity are the best approaches to maintain Taiwan’s autonomy.”01:00Some have also questioned: why now? For Pelosi, it may simply be electoral arithmetic as she seems poised to lose the speaker’s gavel to Republicans in November’s midterm elections and, at the age of 82, potentially retire. The Taiwan visit could be the culmination of a long career calling out Beijing’s human rights abuses.But for critics, while the cause is just, the timing is off. Thomas Friedman, an opinion columnist at the New York Times, described the visit as “utterly reckless, dangerous and irresponsible”, not least because the White House has been involved in delicate negotiations to prevent China providing military assistance to Russia in Ukraine.Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan risks upsetting Beijing to no advantage Read moreBonnie Glaser, director of the Asia programme at the US-based German Marshall Fund thinktank, argues that it would have been better to wait until after the Chinese Communist party’s 20th national congress later this year, when Xi is expected to secure a third term, and after the US clarifies its Taiwan policy. Biden raised eyebrows earlier this year by promising to defend the island militarily, throwing the longstanding policy of “strategic ambiguity” into doubt.Glaser said: “There have been many statements about our policy toward Taiwan, some of which have been contradictory, and there is a need for some consistency and clarity in US policy. One of the reasons why China is responding as it is – and there are many drivers – is that they are losing confidence in the US commitment to One China and they see a gap between US words and deeds.“The Chinese see a need to bolster their red lines to head off a bigger crisis with the United States down the road. They want to get US attention and react strongly enough now so that they can avoid a crisis later that might lead to a decision in China that they have to use force in order to stop the United States from going down this path. There is a need for the US to be more consistent and more disciplined.”Indeed, China’s foreign affairs ministry wasted no time in condemning Pelosi’s visit, saying it “has a severe impact on the political foundation of China-US relations, and seriously infringes upon China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”. It could respond by breaching Taiwan’s air defense identification zone or firing missiles into the Taiwan Strait – risking an accident that leads to escalation.Democrats around the world may thank Pelosi for making a stand against autocrats – while praying that she can also keep the peace.TopicsNancy PelosiTaiwanUS politicsAsia PacificDemocratsRepublicansfeaturesReuse this content More

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      Biden’s climate agenda faces yet another obstacle: Kyrsten Sinema

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      Biden’s climate agenda faces yet another obstacle: Kyrsten SinemaWhile the centrist senator Joe Manchin has announced his support, it is unclear whether Sinema will also back the bill The most ambitious attempt yet to pass climate legislation in the US may have surprisingly won the crucial backing of a senator who owns a coal company. Now it faces a further, deeply ironic, obstacle – a lawmaker who was once a member of the Green party.Last week, Joe Manchin, the centrist West Virginia senator who has been lavished by donations from the fossil fuel industry and made millions of dollars from his ownership of a coal-trading firm, stunned Washington by announcing his support for $369bn in spending to boost renewable energy and slash planet-heating emissions.Manchin’s backing of the bill, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, is critical given Democrats’ slender control of an evenly divided senate. But the fate of Joe Biden’s agenda, along with broader hopes of maintaining a livable climate, now appears to have shifted to another swing vote in the US Senate: Kyrsten Sinema.It’s unclear whether Sinema, an enigmatic and elusive figure, will support the bill, which requires all 50 Democratic votes to pass in the face of unified Republican opposition to acting on the climate crisis. Sinema’s office has said the Arizona lawmaker will “need to review the text and what comes out of the parliamentarian process” before deciding whether to back it.The uncertainty adds to a tortuous process that has stretched back for more than 18 months, with both Manchin and Sinema stymying Biden’s original plan for a $3.5tn bill that included sweeping measures to force down emissions.A pared-down bill, which includes vast tax credits for clean energy and incentives to purchase electric cars has now, eventually, been agreed with Manchin, who on Sunday called Sinema a “friend” and that he “would like to think she’d be favorable to it”.But there is no guarantee of Sinema’s support, given her mercurial career, which began as a Green party member who was anti-war and criticized capitalism, before becoming one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress. Since being elected to the US Senate in 2018, the first Democrat to do so from Arizona since 1976, Sinema has become best known for her colorful wigs, unconventional outfits and calls for bipartisan agreement with Republicans.Her previous action to block Biden’s initial attempt at climate legislation has alarmed advocates and some scientists who warn the US is running out of time to act on global heating. “It seems distinctly possible that she will sink the bill, or make enough concessions to Republican opponents to climate action that the bill is rendered toothless,” said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University.“She seems much more interested in working toward the interests of her corporate donors than the people she is supposed to represent. I hope that my suspicions are proven wrong.”Mann said that if Sinema does sink the bill, legislation that analysts said would slash US emissions by about 40% this decade, he would endorse a primary opponent to Sinema. Although she rarely gives interviews or engages with many of her constituents, Sinema has previously expressed reticence to raise taxes on corporations and may look unfavorably at measures in the new bill, called “closing loopholes” by Manchin, that would require large companies to pay a certain level of tax.However, backers of the bill say they are hopeful that Arizona’s vulnerability to rising temperatures will help convince Sinema of the need for significant action to reduce emissions. Arizona is one of the fastest-heating states in the US, with Phoenix enduring a record year so far for heat-related deaths. In May, Sinema toured the aftermath of a huge wildfire near Flagstaff that she called “sobering”.“By supporting this bill Senator Sinema can help grow Arizona’s energy economy while protecting her constituents from the extreme heat, droughts and wildfires that runaway climate change would inflict on them,” said Paul Bledsoe, a former US Senate staff member, who is now with the Progressive Policy Institute in Washington. “Those strong incentives make her support seem overwhelmingly likely.”Mann said people in Arizona are “suffering the devastating consequences of climate change already, in the form of extreme heat, deadly floods and wildfires. If she votes down this bill, it is a slap in the face of her constituents.”Republicans have not given up hope of obstructing the bill’s progress, with Pat Toomey, a GOP senator from Pennsylvania, expressing optimism that Sinema could be convinced to vote against it.“I’m not speculating about what she is going to do, but I do know there are some provisions in this field that she has had reservations in the past,” Toomey told Bloomberg on Monday. “I’m looking forward to chatting with her this week.”TopicsUS politicsDemocratsJoe BidenClimate crisisfeaturesReuse this content More

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      Democrats prepare for showdown over key spending and climate bill – as it happened

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      Senate Democrats are working to face off on the reconciliation bill – officially known as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Moderate Democratic senator Joe Manchin made the rounds on all the talk shows touting the $740bn legislative package that the senate parliamentarian will go over later this week.
      Meanwhile, John Cornyn, the Republican senator from Texas, tested positive for Covid-19. He vowed to continue fighting the reconciliation bill while in quarantine.
      Joe Biden also remains in quarantine after testing positive again for Covid-19. Though his physician reports that he has minimal symptoms, he still continues to test positive, as expected.
      House speaker Nancy Pelosi is in Asia and multiple news outlets are reporting that she will be including Taiwan in her itinerary. It would mark the first visit to Taiwan by a house speaker in a quarter of a century, but the White House spent the press briefing talking it down as not a big deal. “The speaker has the right to visit Taiwan, and the speaker of the House as visited Taiwan before, without any incident, as have many members of Congress, including this year,” said White House national security spokesman John Kirby. Kirby said if Pelosi does choose to visit Taiwan, her decision would have no standing on the US stance on the One China Policy that does not support Taiwan’s independence.
      Kirby had strong words for China’s threats that its military would “not sit idly by” if the visit happened. “There is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit consistent with long-standing US policy into some kind of crisis or conflict or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity in or around the Taiwan strait,” he said.
      The Biden administration will authorize today a $550m security assistance package for Ukraine, bringing the total aid to $8bn.
      Guy Reffitt, the first of the horde of Donald Trump supporters who stormed the US Capitol on 6 January 2021 to be convicted, has been sentenced to more than seven years in prison. 🚨 SENTENCE: U.S. District Judge Dabney Friedrich orders Guy Reffitt to serve 87 months in prison, to be followed by 3 years of supervised release. Warns if he violates terms she will send him back to prison for up to maximum term. $2,000 in restitution. pic.twitter.com/IGZjxFqoXb— Jordan Fischer (@JordanOnRecord) August 1, 2022
      While it is the harshest sentence for any of the individuals involved in the attack on the US Capitol, it is considerably less than the 15 years the justice department had sought with the terrorism enhancement. JUST NOW: Judge Friedrich DENIES prosecutors’ request to impose a terrorism enhancement and other upward departures at the sentencing of Guy Reffitt. His recommended sentencing range will be 87-108 months in prison.— Jordan Fischer (@JordanOnRecord) August 1, 2022
      Senators Tim Kaine and Kyrsten Sinema – Democrats – joined with Republicans Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski to introduce the Reproductive Freedom for All Act today, legislation to codify Roe v Wade, which was recently overturned by the supreme court. Senate Democrats Kaine & Sinema and Republicans Collins & Murkowski introduced the Reproductive Freedom For All Act today,bipartisan legislation to codify the Roe v. Wade decision recently overturned by the Supreme Court. House passed their version of the bill earlier this month. https://t.co/EIRl7ChQMP— Craig Caplan (@CraigCaplan) August 1, 2022
      All close contacts Joe Biden had when he tested positive for Covid-19 have tested negative, said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre. He is not experiencing any reoccurring symptoms. “He’s feeling fine,” Jean-Pierre said. “There’s no reason for this to escalate,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said of House speaker Nancy Pelosi and her purported Taiwan trip. While House speaker Nancy Pelosi “has not confirmed any travel plans” regarding a decision to visit Taiwan on her trip to Asia, “we have been clear from the very beginning that she will make her own decisions and that Congress is an independent branch of government,” said White House national security spokesman John Kirby “Our Constitution embeds a separation of powers,” Kirby said. “This is well known to the (People’s Republic of China), given our more than four decades of diplomatic relations. The speaker has the right to visit Taiwan, and the speaker of the House as visited Taiwan before, without any incident, as have many members of Congress, including this year.”Pelosi visiting Taiwan on this trip won’t change anything, Kirby said. “Nothing has changed about our One China Policy,” Kirby said. “We have repeatedly said that we oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side. We do not support Taiwan independence and that we expect cross-strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means.”Kirby had strong words for China’s threats that its military would “not sit idly by” if the visit happened. Even before Pelosi arrived in the region, China conducted a live-fire exercise, and Kirby said that China appears to be positioning itself to potentiallhy take further steps in the coming days, be they military provocations, air or naval activities or military exercises. “There is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit consistent with long-standing US policy into some kind of crisis or conflict or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity in or around the Taiwan strait,” he said. “We will not take the bait or engage in sabre rattling. At the same time, we will not be intimidated. We will keep operating in the seas and the skies in the western Pacific, as we have for decades. We will continue to support cross-strait peace, stability, support Taiwan, defend a free and open Indo-Pacific, and we’re still going to seek to maintain lines of communication with Beijing. All of that is important and all of that is preserving the status quo.”White House national security spokesman John Kirby kicked off today’s press briefing by celebrating the first ship to successfully leave the port of Odessa in Ukraine carrying agricultural exports and announcing a $550m security assistance package for Ukraine. The ship was allowed out under a recent deal brokered between the United Nations, Turkey, Ukraine and Russia to allow for Ukraine, Europe’s breadbasket, to export some of its agricultural products as a way to ease the world’s food insecurity crisis. Previously, Russia had a blockade on Ukraine’s ports since the start of its invasion. . “We urge Russia to meet its commitments under this new arrangement, including by facilitating unimpeded exports of agriculture products from Black Sea ports in order to ease the food insecurity around the world,” Kirby said. “We will be watching that closely.”The $550m security assistance package stems from the president’s drawdown authority, bringing the total to $8bn that Joe Biden has drawn down for Ukraine since the Russia invasion began, Kirby said. The Associated Press is reporting that the North Carolina state board of elections voted unanimously today to recognize the Green Party as a new political party, reversing a previous decision to reject the party’s petition while the board investigated the signature sheets for fraud.The North Carolina Green Party has submitted more than enough signatures validated by both the state and county elections boards to earn immediate recognition, Katelyn Love, the board’s legal counsel, said. But Green Party candidates still face an ongoing legal battle to appear on the November ballot after the state board’s initial rejection of the petition led the party to miss the 1 July deadline.The elections board’s Democratic majority previously rejected the Green Party petition in a 3-2 vote on 30 June, citing petition sheets with nearly identical handwriting as well as incomplete personal information, duplicate names and deceased signatories.The Green Party sued the board on 14 July, alleging Democratic interference in the petitioning process and asking the court to reverse the board’s decision. The board filed a response to the lawsuit on Friday, opposing the Green Party’s demand that a judge order the board to include its candidates on the ballot. The board agreed the court should extend the candidate filing deadline should the party earn official recognition at Monday’s board meeting, the brief states.Democrats have warned that Green Party certification could divide progressive voters and clear a path for Republican victories in key races — particularly the tight US senate race between Democrat Cheri Beasley and Trump-endorsed Republican congressman Ted Budd. Prior to the board’s initial vote, the Democratic senatorial campaign committee acknowledged contacting signers of the Green Party’s petition to request they remove their names.K Ryan Parker, a plaintiff in the Green Party lawsuit, called the board’s decision “a welcome surprise and a huge win for democracy,” which he believes was prompted by the recent onslaught of media attention and a desire to settle the matter outside federal court.“It doesn’t change the fact that the Democratic party attempted to disenfranchise North Carolina voters like me by hiring operatives to call, text and visit voters in their home, attempting to compel them to remove their signatures from the petition,” Parker said in an interview Monday. “And it doesn’t change the fact that this two-party system, this duopoly, has failed us at every turn and continues to force voters into a dilemma every four years of voting for a lesser evil.”Tomorrow’s a big primary day in a lot of states, and one big race to watch is the Missouri senate Republican primary. With Republican senator Roy Blunt retiring, basically everybody and their neighbor has come out to vie for his seat. Eric Greitens, the former governor of Missouri, initially held the lead, but he has been dogged by scandal after scandal, with his ex-wife alleging that he abused her and their child and a woman accusing him of sexually and physically abusing her and then threatening to release nude photos of her if she told anyone.Trump posts that he plans to endorse today in #mosen ahead of primary tomorrow. Many Rs had long been concerned he could endorse Greitens— Manu Raju (@mkraju) August 1, 2022
      John Cornyn, the Republican senator from Texas, has tested positive for Covid-19. After dodging it for 2+ years I’ve tested positive for COVID-19. I’m fully vaccinated and boosted, and doing fine. While quarantining I’ll continue to fight Chuck Schumer and Joe Manchin’s massive tax increase on working families remotely, consistent with CDC guidelines.— Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) August 1, 2022
      Cornyn will be quarantining during a very crucial week for Senate Democrats. They want to pass the reconciliation bill – officially known as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 – and once it gets past the senate parliamentarian, they need just a narrow majority to do so. With Cornyn being out due to COVID, this means Dems could potentially pass Manchin bill without VP Harris breaking the tie if all 50 Dems are healthy & are yeas— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) August 1, 2022 More

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      This summer may be one of the most consequential in US democracy | Thomas Zimmer

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      This summer may be one of the most consequential in US democracyThomas ZimmerThe Long Summer of 2022 began in May, when the abortion opinion draft leaked, and continued through a series of brutal rulings and congressional hearings American politics is about to take a summer break. The supreme court’s next term won’t start until October. Congress will be in recess in August. And the January 6 hearings will be on hiatus until September. Things will calm down for a little while. Or so it will seem on the surface, at least.This supposed respite follows what historians might come to call the Long Summer of 2022. It began in early May, when Justice Samuel Alito’s draft majority opinion in Dobbs v Women’s Health Organization leaked – the decision that in June overturned Roe v Wade and abolished the right to abortion. This was not the start, but itself a manifestation and apotheosis of a reactionary assault on the post-1960s civil rights era that originated in Republican-led states and has been consistently enabled and actively advanced by the supreme court. The Dobbs leak, which dominated the political discourse for weeks, clearly indicated an escalation of rightwing attempts to turn the clock back by many decades.In early June, the House select committee on the January 6 attack tried to capture the nation’s attention with the first in a series of televised hearings that, for better or worse, have formed the center of the institutional defense of democracy. It all came to a head in the final days of June, when the central political conflict crystallized in the span of just a little over a week. On Thursday, 23 June, the January 6 committee’s fifth hearing focused on Donald Trump’s outrageous attempts to corrupt the justice department. It is generally not a good sign that such an explosive revelation about how the former president tried to nullify a democratic election was able to dominate the news cycle for only about 12 hours.The very next day, the supreme court published its decision to abolish the right to abortion. It came in the context of a remarkably aggressive assault not just on democracy and civil rights, but also on the state’s ability to handle the challenges of a modern, pluralistic society. Within a week, the court undermined the separation of church and state, weakened the ability of liberal states to regulate guns, basically made it clear that it would tolerate even the most brazen racial gerrymandering, and undercut the administrative state’s attempts to tackle environmental problems.Amid all these decisions that left no doubt about the court majority’s intention to help conservatives impose their will on the entire country, Cassidy Hutchinson, former aide to White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, testified in the committee’s sixth hearing, on 28 June. She painted a clear picture of the former president’s deliberate efforts to summon a violent, armed mob. To care about American democracy, in those last days of June, was to exist in a state of constant emergency, whiplash, and exhaustion.Yet even in those hectic days of late June, and certainly throughout the Long Summer of 2022, the experience of most Americans, even those who followed the proceedings in Washington closely, were shaped not just by the political upheavals, but by the normal challenges of everyday life. Stores remained open, people had to go to work, they suffered or celebrated with their favorite sports teams.It would be unfair to denounce these as just illusions of normalcy. In a lot of ways, things really are “normal”, in the sense that most of us continue the routines that dominate our daily lives, even in the midst of a political crisis around us. We have to function, we compartmentalize, we experience a strange mixture of normalcy and emergency that can sometimes feel almost disorienting. Franz Kafka famously noted in his diary on Sunday, 2 August 1914: “Germany has declared war on Russia. Swimming lessons in the afternoon.” Kafka had just witnessed the beginning of what quickly escalated into the first world war. His remark captures the tension between the global and the personal, the extraordinary and the routine, history and everyday life, the outrageous and the mundane.There is always a temptation to resolve that tension by ignoring the emergency and focusing on the ordinariness of it all – because how bad could things possibly be, the sky isn’t ever falling. This, however, is a privilege not available to the women who are dealing with the cruel consequences of their bodily autonomy being denied or the traditionally marginalized, vulnerable groups who are the targets of the reactionary offensive. Such a focus on the markers of normalcy is deceptive and politically dangerous. It is difficult for contemporaries to discern the exact nature and extent of the crisis through which they are living. We can’t necessarily see the democratic backsliding by simply looking out the window – certainly not until it may be too late – but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a continuing crisis underneath.“Crisis”, of course, might be the most overused term in the public discourse. And in its colloquial meaning, in which it vaguely refers to any kind of difficult situation, it certainly doesn’t have much analytical or explanatory value. But if taken seriously, the notion of “crisis” delineates a highly unstable situation in which established strategies, tactics and patterns of behavior don’t work any more, a constellation in which accepted modes of making sense of the world around us prove inadequate and unable to generate viable solutions.The summer of 2022 should have hammered home the fact that all of us who prefer democracy are experiencing such a profound crisis. The supreme court, one of the critical institutions of constitutional government, is not only complicit in the full-on assault on democracy, civil rights and the state’s ability to adequately tackle urgent public policy issues, it is its spearhead. In this situation, simply clinging to the established idea that the public trust in institutions must not be undermined will not be good enough.And it’s true that, in a vacuum, it is highly problematic for authorities to prosecute the leading political opponent of a sitting president. But we are not in a vacuum. We are in a situation in which the former president was the central figure in a multi-layered, multi-month scheme that amounted to an actual coup attempt. Not holding him accountable would gravely endanger the future of constitutional government.In medical terms, the word “crisis” refers to the turning point of a disease: the patient will either recover – or die. In this sense, a crisis is the opposite of a stable equilibrium. And that’s precisely where we find ourselves.After the overturning of Roe, the overwhelming message from all corners of the right has been: We are not done yet – or, as First Things, the pre-eminent intellectual platform of the religious right, put it: Dobbs was just “the end of the beginning” and a “resounding first step”. Nothing more. There’s no appeasing those who are behind the reactionary crusade, no bargain or truce to be had. The refusal to compromise with the vision of multiracial pluralism, with anyone who deviates from their idea of the natural and/or divinely ordained order, is at the heart of their political project. They are not looking for a consolation prize, partial victories, or an exit ramp. They will keep going – until and unless they are stopped.The current situation necessarily marks a turning point. It is a veritable crisis because it will have to be resolved, one way or the other. America will either overcome this reactionary counter-mobilization and make the leap to multiracial, pluralistic democracy – or the country will regress, and let democracy perish before it’s ever been fully achieved in this land.
      Thomas Zimmer is a visiting professor at Georgetown University, focused on the history of democracy and its discontents in the United States, and a Guardian US contributing opinion writer
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      Sorry, Andrew Yang – a new third party won’t fix America’s political problems | Andrew Gawthorpe

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      Sorry, Andrew Yang – a new third party won’t fix America’s political problemsAndrew GawthorpeThose who care about democracy should advance the Democratic party. Anything else is a vanity project Does the US need a third party, and can one succeed? According to the founders of the new Forward party, the answer to both questions is yes. By targeting disaffected Americans on all parts of the political spectrum, the founders – who include the former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang and the former Republican governor of New Jersey Christine Todd Whitman – hope to create a new force that will lead Americans into a future in which they can “cut out the extreme partisanship, reintroduce a competition of ideas, and work together in good faith”.Sounds great. But unfortunately, the Forward party is ill conceived, based on a faulty idea of how to fix America’s descent into political madness, and likely to collapse under the weight of its own contradictions.At the core of the party’s justification for its own existence is the suggestion that both of America’s two major parties are to blame for the country’s dysfunction, and that the only way to move forward is to replace them with something new. This is a misleading and self-serving diagnosis. Whatever gripes one might have with its policies, the Democratic party is the only one of the two major parties committed to basic democratic and liberal norms. The problem that ails America is that Republicans are not.The absurdity of this attempt to create a false equivalence becomes even clearer when the new party’s founders talk details. They argue that “most Americans” agree neither with “the far right’s insistence on eliminating gun laws” nor with “calls from the far left to confiscate all guns and repeal the Second Amendment”. But these two things are not the same: the first is what is actually happening in America right now, whereas the second is a view that was attributed to Kamala Harris as part of a fabricated smear on Facebook and enjoys approximately zero support in the Democratic party.On abortion, the party’s founders similarly contrast “the far right’s quest to make a woman’s choice a criminal offence” with “the far left’s extreme views on late-term abortions”. Once again, the false equivalence is startling. It’s thanks to the mainstream Republican party, not the “far right”, that abortion is now illegal in eight states, with many more expected to follow. “Late-term abortion”, meanwhile, is a medically meaningless term used by conservatives to imply that women who have life-saving surgery late in their pregnancy are in fact having elective abortions, cheered on all the way by baby-killing liberals.When they avoid talking specifics, the founders can sound more convincing. Who could disagree with “welcoming new ideas” and “creating a political home” for people from both parties? But in the America of today such bromides feel – to borrow, in the spirit of bipartisanship, a phrase from Sarah Palin – “hopey-changey”. In reality, there is only one responsible place for anyone to be if they want to protect America’s democratic, liberal norms – and that place is in the Democratic party.Instead of strengthening this one last realistic defense that the US has left, the Forward party will weaken it. The party’s founders draw on old polling data from just after the January 6 insurrection to claim that 50% of Americans now identify as independents. In fact, the figure is now nearer 40%, and political scientists will tell you that there are very few “true” independents in America’s polarized political landscape. Of that small pool, the Forward party – whose most recognizable face is Andrew Yang, a former Democrat – seems much more likely to siphon votes from the left than from the right. Even if it doesn’t, it will have helped spread propaganda about liberals wanting to end the second amendment and legalize third-trimester abortion, benefiting Republicans. Even a small electoral effect could spell disaster – especially with Republican state governments poised to steal close elections in swing states.The final problem with the Forward party is its internal incoherence. The party promises “common sense” solutions, but common sense means very different things to different people. The fact that the party is trying to stitch together supporters from across the political spectrum is probably one reason it is offering so few details about what its actual policies will be. Political tents can only get so big before they collapse under the weight of their own contradictions, and it is hard to see how the Forward party can avoid a similar fate if it wants to move beyond platitudes.The Democratic party may not be perfect. But the two-party system, and the threat to America’s democracy posed by Republicans, has a stark and brutal logic. Those who care about democracy and liberalism should advance the cause of the Democratic party. Republicans who cannot bring themselves to do that should work to change the Republican party from within. Anything else is a vanity project. Such projects might have value to politicians who had their personal ambitions thwarted in the regular party system. But what do they possibly have to offer the American people?
      Andrew Gawthorpe is a historian of the United States at Leiden University and host of the podcast America Explained
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