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All eyes on Nevada and Arizona as Senate control hangs in balance
by Evelyn Reynolds 11 November 2022, 13:05
All eyes on Nevada and Arizona as Senate control hangs in balanceCounting continues in key Senate battlegrounds, while Republicans look on course for slim majority in House
US midterm elections results 2022 – live
The eyes of the political world remained focused on Arizona and Nevada on Friday, where hundreds of thousands of uncounted votes held the key to control of the US Senate, three days after Americans cast their final ballots in midterm elections.The delay in districts such as Arizona’s Maricopa county, which includes Phoenix, is attributed to the record number of ballots cast on Tuesday. Election officials had estimated they would have a tally by Friday but now say they will count through the weekend.In Nevada, election officials had estimated a finish by Friday but, again, the high number of ballots cast means counting will continue through next week. However, a winner could be called as soon as any candidate is judged to have passed a majority threshold.Why is the midterm vote count taking so long in some US states?Read moreIf Democrats or Republicans can capture a majority by sweeping the contests in both states, it will settle control of the Senate. A split, however, would transform a 6 December runoff Senate election in Georgia between incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker into a proxy battle for the chamber, which among other powers holds sway over Joe Biden’s judicial appointments.Meanwhile, Republicans were slowly inching closer to wresting control of the House of Representatives from Biden’s Democrats, which would in effect give them veto power over his legislative agenda, allow them to launch investigations into his administration and have greater control over the budget.Biden conceded on Thursday that Democrats face long odds to keep control of the House.“It’s still alive. It’s still alive. But it’s like drawing an inside straight,” Biden said, using a poker term for an unpromising situation.Biden said he had spoken to the House minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, a day earlier, after an upbeat press conference at the White House.“I said: ‘If you win the majority, congratulations,’” Biden recalled, in a fine distinction after McCarthy told Fox News that the president had congratulated him on winning a majority.Republicans had secured at least 211 of the 218 House seats they need for a majority, Edison Research projected late on Thursday, while Democrats had won 197. That left 27 races yet to be determined, including a number of close contests.The Republican House leader, Kevin McCarthy, has already announced his intention to run for speaker if Republicans win, an outcome he described as inevitable on Wednesday.But his path could be blocked by a handful of conservative Republicans known as the Freedom Caucus. McCarthy needs 218 votes, so fewer than a dozen caucus members have power to block his path.US midterm elections 2022: live resultsRead more“No one currently has 218” votes, Chip Roy of Texas told NBC News as he emerged from a private Freedom Caucus meeting.Tuesday’s results fell far short of the sweeping “red wave” that Republicans had expected, despite Biden’s anaemic approval ratings and deep voter frustration over inflation.Democrats portrayed Republicans as extremist, pointing to the supreme court’s decision to eliminate a nationwide right to abortion and the hundreds of Republican nominees who promoted former president Donald Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was fraudulent.Some of Trump’s most high-profile endorsed candidates lost pivotal races on Tuesday, marring his status as Republican kingmaker and leading several Republicans to blame his divisive brand for the party’s disappointing performance.The outcome may increase the chances that the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, who routed his Democratic challenger on Tuesday, opts to run for the 2024 presidential nomination. While Trump has not officially launched a third White House campaign, the former president has strongly suggested he will do so and has said he will make a “special announcement” at his Florida club on Tuesday.Trump lambasted DeSantis in a statement on Thursday, taking credit for the governor’s political rise, while attacking critics on his social media site, Truth Social.Even a narrow Republican House majority would be able to demand concessions in exchange for votes on key issue such as raising the nation’s borrowing limit. But with few votes to spare, McCarthy might struggle to hold his caucus together – particularly the hard-right faction that is largely aligned with Trump and has little interest in compromise.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsRepublicansDemocratsnewsReuse this content More
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We were told abortion wasn’t an important election issue. How wrong that was | Moira Donegan
by Evelyn Reynolds 11 November 2022, 12:46
We were told abortion wasn’t an important election issue. How wrong that wasMoira DoneganPro-choice anger propelled Democratic candidates, delivered decisive victories in four state referenda on abortion, and blocked the brunt of what was supposed to be a wipeout We were told that abortion would not be a major issue in the midterm elections. Over the past weeks, pundits and political strategists alike suggested that the outrage over the Dobbs decision had been momentary, capricious; that by election day, women would forget. They insisted that the surge in new voter registrations among women was a fluke, or irrelevant.American voters just sent a crystal-clear message: they believe in abortion rights | Jill FilipovicRead moreAhead of the election, it became conventional wisdom among a kind of self-serious, mostly male political commentator to insist that not only were the Democrats doomed, they had doomed themselves, specifically, by talking about abortion too much. The party had dragged itself down with a social issue that was ultimately not very important, we were told. The Democrats were going to lose, and it was going to be because they had spent too much time catering to the flighty and unserious demands of feminists.Instead, abortion rights proved a hugely motivating force for voters in Tuesday’s midterms. A still-potent anger at the Dobbs decision drove women and young people to the polls, propelled the most vocally pro-choice Democratic candidates to victory, delivered decisive wins for abortion-rights advocates in every state referendum on the issue, and helped to dramatically improve the Democrats’ performance in what was supposed to be a “bloodbath” election favoring Republicans.We now head into 2023 with Democrats holding onto a chance to keep the Senate; if they lose the House, they will only lose it by a handful of seats. There was no bloodbath; there was barely a paper cut. Abortion rights, and the women voters who wanted to defend them, are a big part of why.None of this was what was supposed to happen. To hear the Republicans tell it, they didn’t think that the Dobbs decision would cost them at all in this year’s midterms. As recently as last week, party strategists and rightwing pundits were projecting wild confidence, assuring writers like the New Yorker’s Benjamin Wallace-Wells that the post-Dobbs moment of anger and energy that animated Democratic voters had passed – and that it had not dimmed Republican prospects.“In the end, Republicans didn’t find a way through the political fact that many of the voters they wanted to win were against them on abortion so much as wait it out,” Wallace-Wells wrote last Friday, channeling the shrugging attitude toward the abortion issue that had been conveyed to him by Republican insiders. “They simply absorbed the political hit and moved on.”Even the polling, which throughout the summer and early fall suggested that abortion remained a motivating issue for voters, was explained away, dismissed as a mere “blue mirage”. One Republican strategist hypothesized that Democrats, consumed with emotionalism, were answering their telephones more often, in the hope of being polled. “Answering a political poll itself became a kind of expression of political identity.”Others, like the Washington Examiner’s David Keene, claimed that the large numbers of women voters claiming that abortion would affect their vote were in fact women who were anti-abortion, who would enthusiastically vote to support abortion bans. In retrospect, of course, this seems like risible wishful thinking by Republicans, the kind of thing one can only believe if you live in a deep Republican partisan bubble, and don’t often talk to women. Or maybe it was the kind of bluster that’s meant to intimidate political opponents into thinking that the Republicans were more confident ahead of Tuesday’s elections than they really were.But if Republicans were just bluffing when they said that they didn’t think abortion rights would impact the midterms, many prominent Democrats seem to have believed them. In the weeks ahead of the vote, a series of highly visible party insiders and off-the record insider sources were preemptively blaming the Democrats’ anticipated loss on their supposed overfocus on abortion.Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders wrote a column entitled “Democrats shouldn’t focus only on abortion in the midterms. That’s a mistake”. Sanders’ piece denounced the party’s supposed overfocus on abortion as both politically unwise and morally treacherous. “While the abortion issue must remain on the front burner, it would be political malpractice for Democrats to ignore the state of the economy.”This sentiment was not confined to Sanders and his ilk on the left. On the other side of the party’s political spectrum, the centrist Democratic strategist and PR executive Hilary Rosen appeared on television to lambast the party for paying too much attention to so-called social issues. “I think we’re going to have a bad night,” Rosen said on CNN. “When voters tell you over and over and over again that they care mostly about the economy, listen to them.”In predicting a so-called “red tsunami,” in late October Josh Kraushaar, of Axios, appealed to the data. “Biden delivered a speech Tuesday pledging to codify Roe as his first act if Democrats elect more senators and keep the House,” he wrote. “But there’s worry in Democratic circles that abortion-centric messaging is keeping candidates from talking about the economy. A new Monmouth poll found 63% of respondents wish Biden would give more attention to ‘issues that are important to your family’ – including 36% of Democrats.”It seems almost insultingly remedial to have to explain why this framing – the notion that somehow the midterms could either be about the economy or they could be about abortion – is so wrongheaded. Because, of course, abortion access is central to the economic prospects of working people. But to acknowledge this, you have to acknowledge something that still seems incomprehensible and out of reach for many of our most esteemed shapers of political opinion: that when we think and speak of economic and political subjects, we are speaking of women.It is women whose prospects shape the economy, women who are workers and consumers; it is women who dream to advance economically, to retire or finish school or buy a house; it is women whose economic prospects, along with their health, dignity and freedom, have been curtailed by Dobbs.The stigma surrounding abortion helps to marginalize the issue in the American political imagination; the silence surrounding it conceals just how common abortion is, and how central abortion access is to women’s lives. One in four American women will have an abortion by age 45; many, many more of them know what it is to fear the upheaval of an unplanned pregnancy, to pee on a stick in the loneliness of a bathroom stall as your dreams hang in the balance.To say that this experience of hope, aspiration, anticipation, fear is somehow not as serious as the dreams and aspirations of men – to say that it is somehow not an “issue that is important to your family” – is at best to misunderstand the problem and at worst to suggest that women’s lives are not of political concern at all. If the midterm results are any indication, American women voters disagree.
Moira Donegan is a Guardian US columnist
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Young voters blocked the ‘red wave’. Biden must deliver on student debt cancellation | Astra Taylor
by Evelyn Reynolds 11 November 2022, 10:05
Young voters blocked the ‘red wave’. Biden must deliver on student debt cancellationAstra TaylorBiden acknowledged that student debt relief helped motivate ‘historic’ turnout. But we have yet to see a penny of actual relief For years, advocates like myself have been saying that canceling student debt should be a political no-brainer. In addition to being economically smart and ethically just, it would energize voters – especially younger ones.Tuesday proved us right. Voters under the age of 29 broke for Democrats in overwhelming numbers, helping turn the much-feared Red Wave into a Red Trickle. In a speech on Wednesday night, President Biden acknowledged that student debt relief played a big role in motivating the “historic” turnout of young people, alongside the issues of climate change, abortion and gun violence.On Twitter, the White House chief of staff, Ron Klain, made a similar point, saying that President Biden “kept his promises to younger Americans (with action on climate change, student loans, marijuana reform, etc), and they responded with energy and enthusiasm”.The problem is that Klain’s comment isn’t totally accurate. Young people did indeed respond with energy and enthusiasm – to at least one promise that is, to date, unfulfilled. Almost three months after Biden’s cancellation program was announced, not a single person has seen a penny of relief.And now they may not ever see relief – unless Biden acts. On Thursday night, a Trump-appointed judge in Texas struck down the student loan cancellation program. This hyper-partisan decision will hold unless Biden fights back. Fortunately he has the legal tools to do so.The stakes are too high, and margins too tight, for the White House to not follow through on this essential commitment. On Tuesday, debt relief almost certainly played a decisive role in key races, including Senate races. Consider Pennsylvania, where cancellation champion John Fetterman beat back the reactionary Dr Oz. In Arizona, Mark Kelly, another proponent of cancellation, exceeded expectations. Not so for Ohio Democrat and Senate hopeful Tim Ryan, who strongly opposed Biden’s cancellation plan and lost to the Trump impersonator JD Vance. Likewise, in North Carolina, the Republican senator Ted Budd trounced Cheri Beasley, who waffled on debt cancellation and, it seems, paid a price.Ryan’s and Beasley’s cancellation-averse approach was the one many aspiring soothsayers recommended. Ever since Biden took office, professional pundits have vehemently insisted that canceling student debt would turn off middle-aged, middle-of-the road Democrats, when in fact it drew young people to the polls. (Political commentator David Frum, a man who has made his career being wrong about everything, at least admitted he was wrong about this: “I thought student debt relief was bad policy and bad politics. I still think it bad policy – but looking at the youth vote surge, hard to deny its political impact.”)Looking ahead, there’s no doubt student debt relief will play an outsized role in the 6 December Georgia runoff – a contest that may determine the balance of power in the Senate. Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock has been a leader in the fight for cancellation, unwavering in his faith that delivering student debt relief is vital to winning the south. Republican challenger Herschel Walker, meanwhile, has denounced Warnock for wanting to help student debtors, who he claims spend their loan money on booze, vacations and video games.A recent government report shows the absurdity of Walker’s lie: many students only receive one financial aid disbursement per semester, often delivered into banking products with fees so high they are pushed into overdraft; students reported that this led to the need to fast, use candles for electricity, or forgo textbooks and gas. In addition, polling shows that 29% of student debtors will spend less on basic needs – food, housing, bills – should the pandemic student loan payment moratorium end.If Biden wanted to give Warnock a boost, he would cancel student debt tomorrow and let Walker deal with the fall out. Imagine the jubilation and appreciation unleashed when tens of millions of people see their balances reduced or entirely wiped out,1,506,100 Georgians among them. Young people might once again turn out in droves, and the Senate might be saved.Biden has the power to make this happen. As things stand, his debt relief plan is sabotaged by bad-faith litigation. While the president has rightly blasted the Republicans behind these lawsuits, the real story is more complicated. Biden could have directed the education secretary to cancel people’s debts using the “compromise and settlement” authority granted in the Higher Education Act of 1965, but instead his administration invoked a different and more limited legal authority. (It was this limited authority that the Texas judge formally took issue with.)They also chose to make borrowers apply for the program, instead of automatically issuing cancellation – a slow-moving process that bought their billionaire-backed opponents valuable time to cook up legal arguments, find plaintiffs, and line their cases up with sympathetic, Trump-appointed judges poised to toe the conservative line.The White House needs to learn from its mistakes and play hardball. Biden could knock the legs out from under these cynical lawsuits tomorrow by extinguishing all federal student loans immediately and permanently using compromise and settlement authority. Now that would generate some real “energy and enthusiasm” – the kind of energy and enthusiasm required to sustain and expand this week’s odds-defying electoral success.This longer view is what motivates Nailah Summers, co-director of Dream Defenders, a group that just successfully mobilized young Floridians to elect Maxwell Frost, who will be Generation Z’s first member of Congress.“Young people and Black folks in the US did what had to be done to keep the Democratic party from utter collapse in the midterms last night and it’s likely that the terrain in 2024 is going to be even harder,” Summers told me. “Crumbs and half measures won’t secure their place in the White House as life in the US gets harder. The party is going to have to take decisive action to make American lives better and they can start with canceling all remaining student loans.”This month, young people held up their end of the bargain. Now Biden must honor his.If Biden allows Republicans and billionaires to sabotage student debt cancellation without a fight, he risks breaking the fragile trust that has only just been built with younger voters. Student debt cancellation can be one of Biden’s signature victories, and a catalyst for a reinvigorated Democratic party, or a self-inflicted failure – an empty promise that risks demoralizing and demobilizing the demographic on which the future of the Democratic party, and arguably democracy itself, depends.
Astra Taylor is a writer, organiser and documentary maker
This article was amended 11 November 2022 to reflect legal developments shortly before publication
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US midterm elections 2022: Trump backlash grows as top Virginia Republican says ‘I could not support him’ – live
by Evelyn Reynolds 10 November 2022, 20:19
Virginia’s Republican lieutenant-governor Winsome Sears said she could not support Donald Trump if he again ran for the White House, telling Fox Business Network in an interview that the former president has become a “liability” for the GOP:“A true leader understands when they have become a liability. A true leader understands that it’s time to step off the stage, and the voters have given us that very clear message… I could not support him.”—VA Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) comes out against Trump’s 2024 candidacy pic.twitter.com/0g1plfHJmu— The Recount (@therecount) November 10, 2022
The comments are significant considering Sears did something last year that Trump hasn’t done in more than six: win an election. Voters in the Democratic-leaning state elected Sears as the running mate of Glenn Youngkin in his gubernatorial campaign, and she made history as the first woman and first person of color to serve as Virginia’s lieutenant governor.Her comments also underscore the tension among Republicans over Trump’s influence on the party, particularly since many candidates he backed did not fair well in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Voter turnout this year was the second highest of any midterm since 1940, according to the Washington Post, which analyzed AP and US Elections Project data. About 112.5m people – or about 47% of eligible voters – cast ballots in the midterms. In 2018, about 50% of eligible voters cast ballots, according to the Post.And according to researchers at Tufts University, about 27% of eligible voters 18-29 turned out:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}This 2022 youth turnout is likely the second-highest youth turnout rate for a midterm election in the past 30 years, behind only the historic 31% turnout in 2018. Votes cast by young people made up 12% of all votes in this election, nearly matching the 13% youth share of the vote from the 2014 and 2018 midterms, according to National Election Pool surveys.Joe Biden just spoke in Washington to thank Democratic volunteers for their work in securing the party a better-than-expected night in Tuesday’s midterm elections.He noted that several Republicans who embraced baseless fraud claims about his own election win in 2020 ended up conceding their races without much drama:President Biden says none of the 2020 election deniers contested the results of the 2022 midterm elections when they lost:“Tuesday was a good day … for democracy, and it was a strong night for Democrats.” pic.twitter.com/NZlZwNsyIL— The Recount (@therecount) November 10, 2022
He also linked the surprising support many Democrats received to the party’s pledge to preserve abortion access:President Biden touts the overwhelming support for abortion rights during the 2022 midterms:“Women in America made their voices heard, man … Y’all showed up and beat the hell out of them.” pic.twitter.com/Kc2qZUAwu1— The Recount (@therecount) November 10, 2022
He closed by touting his own legislative accomplishments, including moves intended to lower the country’s fiscal deficit:President Biden: “I don’t wanna hear from Republicans calling Democrats big spenders. We’re the ones bringing down the deficit. They’re the ones that blew it up over four years.” pic.twitter.com/5N7j0ExfT0— The Recount (@therecount) November 10, 2022
The Guardian’s Maanvi Singh is now taking over the blog, and will cover the rest of today’s elections and politics news.The Senate’s Democratic leader Chuck Schumer isn’t banking on his party continuing to hold the chamber for another two years.Bloomberg Government reports that Schumer intends to prioritize confirming Joe Biden’s judges and other nominees before the year ends and the new Congress begins:🚨Scoop: Senate leader is preparing to pull the defense authorization bill off the floor and instead focus on federal nominees and judges and majority next year is still in limbo. Instead annual defense bill will materialize as an informal conference bill @business @BGOV #NDAA— Roxana Tiron (@rtiron) November 10, 2022
Democrats still have a path to keeping the Senate majority, particularly if Mark Kelly in Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada win their races. Counting is ongoing in both.Even as some Republicans blame him for their party’s struggles in Tuesday’s election, Morning Consult has new data out that confirms he remains the most-liked man in the GOP, though perhaps not as popular as he once was:2024 National Republican Primary:Trump 48% (+22)DeSantis 26%.@MorningConsult, 1,691 RV, 11/2-7https://t.co/AdYWBaSMK0 pic.twitter.com/PZ1AJdcudQ— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 10, 2022
Trump’s most recent popularity peak came in August, after his actions had received scrutiny from the January 6 committee and his resort searched by the FBI as part of its investigation into potentially unlawful retention of government secrets.It may not be until Saturday that the outcomes of Nevada’s razor-thin Senate and governor races are known, The Nevada Independent reports.That’s based on comments made at a press conference by Joe Gloria, registrar of Nevada’s most-populous county Clark, where Las Vegas is located. The outcome of the two races is expected to hinge on votes from its residents, who tend to lean Democratic:Gloria on today’s numbers:He notes that Clark reported results from about 14k mail ballots last night.He says there are still more than 50k ballots that must be counted in Clark.”Majority of mail should be counted in Clark County by Saturday.”— Sean Golonka (@s_golonka) November 10, 2022
Yesterday, Gloria said Clark received 12.7k in mail on Wednesday, and in the afternoon, the county announced it received 56.9 from Election Day drop boxes.The 14k reported yesterday was apparently Monday drop off and Tues mail. But Gloria now says there are 50k uncounted.— Sean Golonka (@s_golonka) November 10, 2022
Meanwhile, NBC News reports a Trump adviser says the former president still plans to announce another run for the White House on Tuesday:A senior Trump adviser just confirmed Tues announcement & said “The media, the corporate elites, and political establishment has all moved in unison against Donald Trump at their own peril. It’s like they want to recreate 2015-2016. Let them. We are doing it again. Buckle up”— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) November 10, 2022
Invites for Trump’s announcement should go out today.— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) November 10, 2022
Virginia’s Republican lieutenant-governor Winsome Sears said she could not support Donald Trump if he again ran for the White House, telling Fox Business Network in an interview that the former president has become a “liability” for the GOP:“A true leader understands when they have become a liability. A true leader understands that it’s time to step off the stage, and the voters have given us that very clear message… I could not support him.”—VA Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) comes out against Trump’s 2024 candidacy pic.twitter.com/0g1plfHJmu— The Recount (@therecount) November 10, 2022
The comments are significant considering Sears did something last year that Trump hasn’t done in more than six: win an election. Voters in the Democratic-leaning state elected Sears as the running mate of Glenn Youngkin in his gubernatorial campaign, and she made history as the first woman and first person of color to serve as Virginia’s lieutenant governor.Her comments also underscore the tension among Republicans over Trump’s influence on the party, particularly since many candidates he backed did not fair well in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Montana has become the latest state where voters said no to further abortion restrictions by rejecting a law that was meant to stop the killing outside the womb of babies who survive a failed abortion – which is already illegal.The so-called “born alive” law would have allowed medical providers to face criminal charges if they don’t take “all medically appropriate and reasonable actions to preserve the life” of infants, according to the AP.The defeat puts Montana among the ranks of Republican-leaning states where voters have rejected attempts to further tighten down on abortion access following the supreme court’s overturning of Roe v Wade in June.Here’s more on the failed law from the AP:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Health care professionals and other opponents argued the proposal could rob parents of precious time with infants born with incurable medical issues if doctors are forced to attempt treatment.
“Today’s win sends a clear message to state leadership: Montanans demand our right to make private health care decisions for ourselves and our families with the help of our trusted medical teams — and without interference from politicians,” said a statement from Hillary-Anne Crosby, a spokesperson for an organization called Compassion for Montana Families that opposed the measure.
The outcome comes after a series of wins for abortion rights supporters in states around the country where abortion was directly on the ballot during the midterm elections. Voters enshrined abortion protections into state constitutions in Michigan, California and Vermont. They also voted down an anti-abortion constitutional amendment in conservative Kentucky, just as voters did in Kansas in August.
Supporters said the proposed Montana law was meant to prevent the killing of infants outside the womb in rare occurrence of a failed abortion, something that is already is illegal. Penalties for violating the proposed law would have included up to $50,000 in fines and up to 20 years in prison.
At least half of U.S. states have similar post-abortion born-alive laws in place, according to Americans United for Life, a Washington, D.C.-based organization that opposes abortion, aid in dying and infant stem cell research.
“This initiative would have criminalized doctors, nurses and other health care workers for providing compassionate care for infants, and, in doing so, overridden the decision-making of Montana parents,” said a statement from Lauren Wilson of the Montana Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics.Adam Gabbatt has taken a look at the latest round in the long-running American political parlor game, ‘Has Rupert Murdoch Finally Dumped Trump?’:On election day, Donald Trump was clear about how his efforts to support Republican candidates should be seen.“Well, I think if they win, I should get all the credit,” Trump told NewsNation. “If they lose, I should not be blamed at all.”Unfortunately for Trump, he did not get what he hoped for. Instead the former president has seen conservative news outlets, the Rupert Murdoch-owned ones in particular, turn on him, in some cases with gleeful abandon.“Trumpty Dumpty” blared the front page of Thursday’s New York Post, the tabloid Murdoch has owned since 1976. Editors went so far as to mock up Trump as Humpty Dumpty, his enlarged orange head stuffed into a white shirt and a signature red tie.Next to the picture of Trump as an egg perching precariously on a brick wall, the text goaded: “Don (who couldn’t build a wall) had a great fall – can all the GOP’s men put the party back together again?”The Post cover offered the most visceral insight into Murdoch’s thinking, and its contempt was far from an outlier in the mogul’s news empire.“Trump Is the Republican Party’s Biggest Loser” was the verdict of the Wall Street Journal editorial board. A subheading added: “He has now flopped in 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022.”The piece was just as scathing as the headline, running through nine races this November the paper said Trump had effectively tanked through his continued election denial, his various wars with more moderate Republican candidates and his general unpopularity nationwide.“Since his unlikely victory in 2016 against the widely disliked Hillary Clinton, Mr Trump has a perfect record of electoral defeat,” the editorial said.“The GOP was pounded in the 2018 midterms owing to his low approval rating. Mr Trump himself lost in 2020. He then sabotaged Georgia’s 2021 runoffs by blaming party leaders for not somehow overturning his defeat.”It added: “Now Mr Trump has botched the 2022 elections, and it could hand Democrats the Senate for two more years.”Has ‘Trumpty Dumpty’ taken a great fall from Rupert Murdoch’s grace?Read moreAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez is not happy about how Democrats performed in her state, New York, in the midterms – a series of House losses helping (probably) hand the chamber to Republicans, though Kathy Hochul, the governor, did fend off an unexpectedly strong challenge from her Trumpist opponent, Lee Zeldin.The New York City congresswoman popularly known as AOC told the Intercept: “New York, I think, is the glaring aberration in what we see in this map … what happened in New York really bucks a lot of the trends in what we saw nationwide.“… I think, in New York, the way that those campaigns were run were different than the way a lot of winning campaigns across the country were run. And I think the role of the state party had very strong national implications. If Democrats do not hang on to the House, I think that responsibility falls squarely in New York state.”Identifying key election themes in New York, Ocasio-Cortez said: “I think policing was a big one, I think the choice among certain Democrats to … amplify Republican narratives on crime and policing, running ads on it … validating these narratives actually ended up hurting them much more than a different approach. I think that what we saw in other races was that they were able to really effectively center either their narratives and the narratives that they wanted to run with, whether it was abortion rights, whether it was democracy, whether it was … other key and top priorities.“I think Democrats in New York, they did a couple of things. They ran ads around that were explicitly very anti-defund [the police], which only served to reinvoke the frame and only served to really reinforce what Republicans were saying. If we’re going to talk about public safety, you don’t talk about it in the frame of invoking defund or anti-defund, you really talk about it in the frame of what we’ve done on gun violence, what we’ve done to pass the first gun reform bill in 30 years. Our alternatives are actually effective, electorally, without having to lean into Republican narratives.“… And I think another prime mistake is that in New York state, [ex-governor Andrew] Cuomo may be gone, but … much of his infrastructure and much of the political machinery that he put in place is still there. And this is a machinery that is disorganised, it is sycophantic. It relies on lobbyists and big money. And it really undercuts the ability for there to be affirming grassroots and state-level organising across the state.“And so … you’re leaving a void for Republicans to walk into … it’s a testament to the corruption that has been allowed to continue in the New York state Democratic party.”Josh Hawley, the senator from Missouri who may or may not run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 but definitely did run from Capitol rioters on 6 January 2021, even after raising a fist to the mob, thinks Republicans did not do as well as they might’ve done on Tuesday night because they didn’t run on his populist, not to say Trumpist, principles.He tweets, in a message at least partially counter to the emerging consensus that Republicans suffered (if probably winning the House and maybe winning the Senate can be called suffering) because voters wanted to rebuke their Trumpist drift:Washington Republicanism lost big Tuesday night. When your “agenda” is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal (“infrastructure”), and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose— Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) November 10, 2022
A refresher on how Hawley ran, as shown by the House January 6 committee, is here.Video of Josh Hawley running, meanwhile, is here:01:08 More
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Joe Biden indicates he’ll run in 2024, following Democrats’ midterms wins
by Evelyn Reynolds 10 November 2022, 18:31
Joe Biden indicates he’ll run in 2024, following Democrats’ midterms winsPresident says he’ll announce decision in early 2023, while two-thirds of midterm voters said they wouldn’t like to see him run To those who do not want to see the US president run for re-election, Joe Biden has a message: “Watch me.”A self-assured Biden, riding high from Democrats’ history-defying showing in this year’s midterm elections, said at a post-election press conference that he intends to seek another term, but that it was ultimately a “family decision”.US midterm elections 2022: Senate and House remain in balance as counting continues – liveRead more“I think everybody wants me to run, but we’re going to have discussions about it,” Biden told reporters, indicating that he would sit down with his family over the holidays and announce his decision “early next year”.01:27A full accounting of the election results will take several more days, or possibly weeks, to know as key states continue counting and a Senate race in Georgia heads to a runoff that could determine control of the chamber.Though Republicans hold the edge in the district-by-district battle for the House, Biden and his party managed to avoid the “giant red wave” that many Democrats had braced for in a political environment shaped by widespread economic discontent and the president’s low approval ratings. Control of the Senate also remains within reach for Democrats.Despite the unexpectedly strong showing Biden, approaching his 80th birthday this month, could still face strong headwinds in 2024. Two-thirds of midterm voters said they would not like to see Biden seek re-election in 2024, according to exit polling conducted by Edison Research. That includes more than 40% of Democrats and 90% of Republicans, the poll showed.But the surprising, mixed results on Tuesday may serve to bolster Biden’s case for seeking re-election and perhaps even quell concerns among those in his party who hope the party elects another standard-bearer in 2024.“Our intention is to run again,” Biden said. “That’s been our intention regardless of what the outcome of this election was.In the months before the election, vulnerable Democrats were peppered with questions about whether they would support Biden in 2024. And Democratic leaders have mostly delicately sidestepped questions about whether he should run again.For now, Democrats’ successes have shifted the attention to Donald Trump, who hoped a wave of Republican victories would propel the launch of his third presidential bid, expected as soon as next week.But many of Trump’s hand-picked candidates lost on Tuesday night, among them Mehmet Oz, the celebrity doctor, who lost a marquee Senate race in Pennsylvania to John Fetterman. The underwhelming results have raised questions about the former president’s political strength, with some openly warning that he is a drag on the party.Meanwhile, Trump’s chief Republican rival, the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, cruised to re-election on Tuesday. Following DeSantis’s strong performance on Tuesday, in which he expanded his support among Hispanic voters and turned the increasingly Republican state even redder, many conservatives are already pushing him as a promising alternative to Trump. The conservative New York Post anointed DeSantis as “DeFuture”.Biden welcomed the Republican competition. “It would be fun to watch them take each other on,” he said.Even before the president makes a decision, his team has started to lay the groundwork for a potential campaign.“We are engaged in some planning for the simple reason that if we weren’t engaged in planning in November of this year, we should be in the political malpractice Hall of Fame,” said Anita Dunn, senior White House adviser, during an Axios event last week.Biden’s approval rating stands at 43% among registered voters, according to a Washington Post-ABC poll released ahead of election day. But he remains popular among Democrats, with eight in 10 giving him positive ratings compared with nine in 10 Republicans who disapprove of his job performance. Slightly fewer than four in 10 independent voters say they approve of his performance.There appears to be little appetite among elected Democrats to challenge Biden in a primary. The Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, a leading progressive, has ruled out a run against Biden.Should Biden choose not to run, it’s unclear who would step forward to seek the nomination.As vice-president, Kamala Harris is seen as an heir apparent, and would probably emerge as the frontrunner. Harris, who campaigned across the country for Democrats this cycle, was credited with spotlighting the issue of abortion and reproductive rights, which proved decisive in key races. But she, like Biden, also suffers from low approval ratings.Other Democrats have attracted 2024 speculation. The Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar and the transportation secretary, Pete Buttigieg, both of whom ran in 2020, traveled to several states this cycle to campaign for Democrats.California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, who easily won re-election on Tuesday a year after defeating a recall attempt, has sought to build a national profile by publicly challenging DeSantis. And Michigan’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer, who stormed to re-election in a battleground state, is seen as a rising star.David Shor, a top Democratic data analyst, said the midterm results underscored the power of incumbency, as many of the party’s endangered members held on to their seats despite a challenging political environment. Rallying behind an incumbent also avoids a messy primary, he said.“There’s definitely a case that it would make sense to avoid a bruising, trillion-dollar primary where all of the smartest minds in the Democratic party devote themselves to driving the favorables down of all of our favorite candidates,” Shor said in an interview on the Guardian’s Politics Weekly America.But the bigger variable, Shor argued, could be the economy.“The traditional pattern of American politics was that there was this really strong relationship between economic conditions and presidential approval. That was true for Clinton, it was true for Bush but it stopped being true for Barack Obama and for Donald Trump. But it’s come back for Joe Biden,” he said. “And so I think ultimately, the question of 2024 is really just what the economy ends up being.”TopicsJoe BidenUS elections 2024DemocratsUS politicsnewsReuse this content More
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Pelosi accuses Republicans of treating climate crisis like ‘it’s all a hoax’ at Cop27
by Evelyn Reynolds 10 November 2022, 16:08
Pelosi accuses Republicans of treating climate crisis like ‘it’s all a hoax’ at Cop27Democrat makes surprise appearance at climate summit as midterms forecasts predict Republicans will take the House Nancy Pelosi has accused Republicans of treating the climate crisis like “it’s all a hoax” while at the Cop27 climate talks in Egypt, where the US delegation is attempting to remain upbeat about continued progress on dealing with global heating despite uncertainty over the midterm election results.Pelosi, the speaker of the House of Representatives, made a surprise appearance at the climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh on Thursday. The trip may be one of Pelosi’s last as speaker, with most forecasts predicting Republicans will eke out a narrow majority in the House.There has been “shall we say, a disagreement on the subject” of the climate crisis between the parties, Pelosi said at Cop27, adding that Republicans have said “‘Why are we having this discussion? There is no climate crisis. It’s all a hoax.’ We have to get over that. This is urgent, long overdue.“So we cannot just have any political disagreement or the power of the fossil fuel industry cramping our style as we go forward with this, but to show a path that gets us to where we need to be,” Pelosi said. Pelosi’s appearance at Cop27 comes at a critical point for the future of democracy in the US and the future of the planet. Joe Biden was able to pass the country’s most significant piece of climate legislation this year because Democrats have the majority in both the House and the Senate. With that set to change, the mounting anger at the US for obstructing meaningful global climate action, despite being the world’s largest polluter and richest country, may only get worse.Kathy Castor, a Democrat from Florida who chairs the House subcommittee on the climate crisis, predicted Republicans would axe her committee should they gain power. “They have not really been partners in tackling the climate crisis, and it’s inexplicable because the world’s top scientists tell us we are running out of time,” Castor said.Biden will appear at Cop27 on Friday and a delegation of his cabinet members have already descended upon Sharm el-Sheikh to stress to other, skeptical, countries that the US, which has swerved erratically on climate policy over the years and under Donald Trump completely abandoned the crisis, will still be engaged on fighting global heating even if Republicans do secure Congress.“I think the United States is seen favorably here based on the actions taken in the last two years,” Michael Regan, administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), told the Guardian.Regan, who appearing at a number of events at Cop27, cited the inflation reduction act, which includes more than $370bn in climate spending, and the administration’s actions to promote environmental justice.“Polls suggest climate change isn’t a top-tier issue, but most families are focused on keeping a roof over their heads and putting food on the table … so it’s not surprising some issues were registering a little higher than climate change,” Regan said of the midterm elections.“But climate change hasn’t fallen off the list, it’s still a top priority. You don’t even have to trust scientists any more, you just have to look out of the window or put on the news. People are smart enough to see this isn’t some long-term conspiracy theory.”Faced with inconclusive midterm election results, the mood among many veteran climate activists and negotiators from developing countries is one of indifference, as they have seen little difference between the Democrats and Republicans over the past three decades when it comes to the most crucial climate issues like finance and market solutions.Representatives of developing countries have criticized the US at Cop27 for repeatedly failing to deliver promised funding to help them deal with the crippling impacts of floods, fires and droughts, as well as transition to clean energy. Poorer nations are pushing for “loss and damage” finance to help them cope with the climate crisis. John Kerry, the US climate envoy, has admitted that further funding would be unlikely should Republicans gain control of Congress.“The main difference is that at least the Democrats don’t deny climate change, and of course it matters inside America as without the Democrats the Inflation Reduction Act would not have passed, but on the global stage it makes no difference,” said Meena Raman, a climate policy expert from Third World Network and adviser to developing countries at the Cop summits.“It’s the same negotiators, the same blockages, the same bullying, and even now the planet is burning, the US doesn’t change and gets what it wants. It continues to deny its historic responsibility, emphasize the private sector and loans, and uses China as the bogeyman to distract attention away from its unfulfilled pledges.”US greenhouse gas emissions are rising, with plans to vastly expand gas production and fines for oil companies which don’t up extraction.Asad Rehman, director of War on Want and a coordinator of the climate justice groups at Cop27, said: “We are faced with a choice of Republicans who are climate denialists whilst the Democrats are mitigation denialists – happy to speak about the climate emergency but it’s simply hollow words.“From Bush to Biden the USA continues to block real finance, tinker with its emissions and are sacrificing billions to climate catastrophe while expanding fossil fuels which will sacrifice billions to climate catastrophe.”TopicsNancy PelosiCop27Climate crisisUS midterm elections 2022US politicsRepublicansDemocratsnewsReuse this content More
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Many Republicans think climate crisis is a hoax, says Nancy Pelosi – video
by Eliana Willis 10 November 2022, 11:31
Speaking at a Cop27 panel discussion, the speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, said it was difficult to predict how the results of the midterm elections would affect US action on climate change, but that such action was ‘long overdue’. ‘We have had, shall we say, a disagreement on the subject,’ said Pelosi, referring to the Democrats and the Republicans. ‘When Kathy [Castor, a congresswoman] had her bill on the floor, our [Republican] colleagues said why are we having this discussion, there is no climate crisis, it’s all a hoax.’
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US midterm elections 2022: live results
by Evelyn Reynolds 10 November 2022, 08:38
US midterm election results 2022: liveFull live results of the Congressional midterms, seat by seat, as electors across the US vote to decide whether the Republicans or Democrats will control the House of Representatives and Senate
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.gv-section:last-of-type:after,.ios .gv-section:last-of-type:after{width:calc(100% + 8px)}.android .headline.selectable,.ios .headline.selectable{color:#fff!important;display:inline;background:#121212!important;box-shadow:10px 0 0 #121212,0 0 0 #121212;font-size:36px;line-height:40px;font-weight:700;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;-ms-box-decoration-break:clone;-o-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-left:10px;padding-right:0;margin-top:60px;padding-bottom:0;margin-left:10px}.android .standfirst.selectable,.ios .standfirst.selectable{margin-top:10px}.android .mt-how,.ios .mt-how{margin-top:-16px!important;margin-bottom:24px!important}.android .mt-how a,.ios .mt-how a{font-size:14px!important}Updating …Latest resultsHouse 9 hours agoDemocrats win Connecticut 5thHouse 11 hours agoRepublicans win New Jersey 7thHouse 11 hours agoDemocrats win Washington 10thHouse 12 hours agoDemocrats win California 31stHouse 12 hours agoDemocrats win California 39thHouse 12 hours agoDemocrats win California 33rdHouse 12 hours agoDemocrats win California 28thHouse 12 hours agoDemocrats win California 25thHouse 13 hours agoDemocrats win Pennsylvania 7thHouse 13 hours agoRepublicans win Michigan 10thHouse 14 hours agoRepublicans win Iowa 3rdHouse 15 hours agoRepublicans win Arizona 5thGovernors 15 hours agoDemocrats hold KansasHouse 16 hours agoDemocrats win Pennsylvania 8thSenate 16 hours agoRepublicans hold WisconsinHouse 17 hours agoRepublicans win New York 19thHouse 17 hours agoRepublicans win New York 17thHouse 17 hours agoDemocrats win Pennsylvania 17thHouse 17 hours agoRepublicans win New York 4thHouse 17 hours agoRepublicans win Wisconsin 3rdHouse 18 hours agoDemocrats win Pennsylvania 12thHouse 19 hours agoDemocrats win Michigan 8thHouse a day agoDemocrats win Massachusetts 9thHouse a day agoDemocrats win Massachusetts 6thHouse a day agoDemocrats win Massachusetts 3rdHouse a day agoDemocrats win Massachusetts 1stHouse a day agoRepublicans win Nevada 2ndHouse a day agoDemocrats win Michigan 7thHouse a day agoRepublicans win California 48thHouse a day agoRepublicans win California 1stOverviewHow does the election work?SenateDemocrats* 48+1Republicans-14851 to win***includes independents**vice-president (Dem) has casting voteno electionno election32 of 35 races calledHouseDemocrats 184-8Republicans+6207218 to win391 of 435 races calledBattlegroundsDemocratRepublicanIndependent/OtherSeat changed handsMany seats in United States elections always go to the same party. So control of the Senate and House of Representatives depends on a relatively small number of competitive seats, or “battlegrounds”. Election experts rank the competitive seats as more or less likely to return a Republican or Democrat. This gives a clue to how the election is evolving overall; if Democrats are winning seats that were thought likely to go Republican, it may be an indication they will do well overall. Simplistically, blue shapes on the right of the following charts signal a good night for Biden and the Democrats, and red shapes on the left signal the opposite.DemocratRepublicanIndependent/OtherSeat changed handsSenateAfter flipping a Senate seat in Pennsylvania, the Democrats hampered Republican hopes of controlling the upper house. This could depend on the December election in Georgia after the Senate race there advanced to a run-off.Full results mapLikely DemocratCOWALean DemocratNHToss-upAZGANVPAWILean RepublicanNCOHLikely RepublicanFLIAUTno resultHouseThe House looks set to flip to the Republicans but a
‘red wave’ has failed to materialise. Key seats include Iowa’s 3rd
district and Colorado’s 8th.Full results mapLikely DemocratLean DemocratToss-upLean RepublicanLikely Republicanno resultDemocracy is under threat. Support independent journalism.From voting rights to climate collapse to reproductive freedom, the stakes couldn’t be higher in these midterm elections. Help us shine a light on the most pressing issues facing America.Show your supportHow do the elections work?All 435 seats in the lower chamber of the federal congress, the House of Representatives, are re-elected every two years. (There are no term limits, and incumbents are often returned, so there is substantial continuity in the membership). House seats are broadly proportional to population, so California has lots of seats but Montana only a few.The upper chamber, the Senate, has 100 seats; two for each state, however populous. In every even-numbered year, roughly one-third of senators are elected for a six-year term. Legislation has to pass both chambers to become law. Senators have some additional responsibilities compared with their colleagues in the House; chiefly these have to do with confirming (or not) presidential appointments.Governors are not part of Congress. Their impact is mostly local to their own state, but because they can affect electoral law or practice, they can affect future federal elections.Going into the election the Democratic party of the president, Joe Biden, controlled both chambers of Congress, but by very narrow margins. In the Senate, a 50-50 split would mean a casting vote went to the vice-president, Kamala Harris. (In practice the casting vote more often went to Joe Manchin, a Democratic senator representing a largely Republican state).These elections are called midterms because they happen in the middle of a four-year presidential term. They are difficult for sitting presidents because the presidential party often does badly in them, and because losing control of Congress makes it more difficult for the president to pursue his or her agenda.About these resultsThe results are provided by the Associated Press, or AP, who have rigorous criteria for “calling” election races; that is, for reporting a winner. Redrawing of House districts this year following the 2020 census mean AP is not reporting “flips”, or seats where the sitting party changes. The redistricting means that in a few seats there are two incumbent representatives competing for a new district. It may also impact the change figures seen on the House results summary bar. It is possible that some seats will count 100% of votes without a winner becoming apparent because of laws that trigger an automatic recount in races that are very close. More

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