Democrats

Good morning. With a week to go until America votes, the polls consistently show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a statistical dead heat.The nerds who simulate the race hundreds of times to model the likelihood of each result are consistently finding extraordinarily even chances between the two. And nothing that happens – not assassination attempts, Kamalamentum, convention speeches, running mate selections, celebrity endorsements, multi-million-dollar political ads, the debate, erratic rally performances, or plausible accusations of fascist tendencies – seems to change anything for more than a minute. The election, in summary, looks too close to call.All of which prompts the question: why are some Democrats so gloomily sure that Trump is going to win? Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s Washington DC bureau chief, David Smith, is about what we actually know, what Democrats should be worrying about, and what can be written off as a terrible case of the jitters. Here are the headlines.Five big stories

Budget | The government is expected to announce an increase of about 4% to NHS funding, an increase that could translate to about £7bn for the health budget in England. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said that the money would deliver more surgical hubs and radiotherapy machines in a drive to add 40,000 appointments each week.

Middle East | Israel’s parliament has voted to ban the UN relief and works agency (Unrwa) from the country within 90 days. Alongside a decision to declare Unrwa a terror group, the move is expected to lead to the closure of Unrwa’s East Jerusalem headquarters and would effectively block the delivery of humanitarian aid into Gaza via Rafah.

Crime | The far-right activist Tommy Robinson has been jailed for 18 months for contempt of court for repeating false allegations against a Syrian refugee, in breach of an injunction. Robinson had repeated his false claim that Jamal Hijazi, who had been filmed being attacked at a school in West Yorkshire, “violently attacks young English girls” despite losing a libel case.

Justice | Prisoners serving controversial indeterminate sentences were given minimum terms of less than six months but have remained in jail for at least 16 years, newly released data shows.

Wildlife | Hedgehogs are now listed as “near threatened” on the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s red list, after a decline in numbers of at least 30% over the past decade across much of their range.
In depth: Democrats are afraid of underestimating Trump – againView image in fullscreenWhatever the polls say, some Democrats will not be swayed. They can feel it in their waters, and sniff it on the air: Trump is closing in on a second term in the Oval Office.We might hazily date this phenomenon to early October, when betting markets got ahead of the electoral models in their assessment of the odds of a Trump victory. Meanwhile, the leads Harris established after replacing Biden started to disappear.“After the incredible sugar high of Harris’ introduction, she inevitably was going to come down to earth a bit,” David Smith said. “And compounding that is the fact that Democrats are serial ‘bed-wetters’, as they’re sometimes known, often prone to panicking about things going wrong.”For many of the bed-wetters, it may come down to a set of intangible observations: Trump has been underestimated before. This matters so much – a classic confusion of stakes and odds. And we live in an era where, when an OK thing and a bad thing are in competition, there only ever seems to be one winner.One way to deal with all this is with an “emotional hedge”: work on the assumption that Trump is going to win, to soften the blow if it comes. The other is with information. I totally understand if you’re not in the mood for that, but here it is anyway.What do the national polls say?The headline national polling averages show an extraordinarily close race, with Harris ahead by 49% to 48%, by 47% to 46%, or by 48% to 47%, depending on who’s counting. Those results are within the margin of error, meaning they are not inconsistent with a victory for either candidate.The national polls have changed astonishingly little in historical terms: “This race is remarkable for its closeness but also the insane stability of polls here in the closing weeks,” Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster, told NBC News. “This race just doesn’t seem to budge.”That is in line with what David is told by pundits and analysts studying the numbers. “The thing I keep hearing is that it could go either way. Anyone who says with certainty that either Harris or Trump is going to win is either foolish or has godlike powers.”What about the battleground states?Because of the electoral college system, the popular vote is of secondary importance in deciding the final result (a majority voted against Trump in 2016, after all, but he still ended up in the White House). But in the seven states that will probably decide the outcome, there isn’t a lot more to hold on to: polling averages in each are either tied or within a couple of points.There is some evidence for the bed-wetters to point to here. A piece (£) by the election data expert Nate Silver (quoted in this piece by law) on Sunday looked at what his modelling shows in these seven states, and found that Trump is a strong favourite (with a 64% chance of victory or better) in three of them; Harris’ strongest shot is in Michigan, where she has a 56% chance, and the others are virtual ties.You can see why this would make the Harris campaign nervous, but the reality is that these remain knife-edge numbers, David said. “It’s still hard to say that one candidate or another is winning in the swing states. In Pennsylvania, for example, it was half a percentage point in 2020, and there’s every reason to believe it’s going to be just as close, or even closer, this time.”Are the polls reliable?One point often cited by those betting on a Trump win is that his support was significantly underestimated in key states in 2016 and 2020. Why wouldn’t the same thing happen this time?It’s perfectly possible, but pollsters have tried to correct for the errors that have led them down the wrong path in the past – namely, weighting their results to account for more voters without a college degree, which appears to have been the problem in 2016. The 2020 error has been harder to pinpoint, but many experts blame “nonresponse bias” – the theory that Trump supporters don’t trust pollsters and are therefore less likely to tell them what they think. Pollsters have attempted to address that problem in different ways.As the New York Times’ chief political analyst, Nate Cohn, explains, what it may come down to in the end is whether the less engaged voters who support Trump show up in greater numbers than the pollsters anticipate – and that’s certainly possible. On the other hand, it is also possible that pollsters have overcorrected in a way that means Harris is underestimated. The unsatisfying but sensible solution is to wait a week and see what happens.What are the vibes like?Oh, the vibes are frantic. Broadly speaking, Republicans are rubbing their hands and Democrats are wringing theirs. This piece on Axios from Friday, with the headline “Dems fear they’re blowing it”, gives you a flavour: they’re worrying about early voting trends in Nevada, agonising over whether calling Trump a fascist is helpful, and reflecting grimly on the hand Harris inherited from Joe Biden. “She is who she is,” is the best one strategist can muster. “Let’s hope it’s enough.”There is a long history of Democrats taking an Eeyorish view when the stakes are high. Still, it’s not a totally insane position. It’s unscientific, but it feels like most reporters visiting swing states – like Chris McGreal in Michigan – are finding voters edging towards Trump. There is plenty of polling suggesting that Trump has made inroads with Black men and Hispanic voters.High inflation has worked against incumbent governments all over the world this year; Trump seems to be immune from criticism for behaviour that would disqualify any other candidate. And many voters blame Harris for irregular immigration across the US’s southern border.Could the vibes be wrong?Absolutely. There are counterpoints to all of this, including evidence of Harris’s success with suburban white women, and recent polling that shows her improving among Hispanic and Black voters. There is evidence that a majority of voters see her as embodying “change” more genuinely than Trump does. And there is a sense that much of it is psychological anyway: Democrats got carried away by “Kamalamentum”, and so the return of the race to a more balanced state has had a disproportionate impact on their mood.As one source close to the Harris campaign suggested to ABC News: “Democrats … were hoping that she was going to pull away and are coming to the realisation that this race is much closer than they hoped.” They added: “The bed-wetting to me makes sense based on the stakes, but not so much based on the odds.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThis dynamic may even be helpful to the Harris campaign, which has constantly reminded its supporters that they should avoid the complacency which some believe helped Trump beat Hillary Clinton. “The language you hear from Harris and the Democrats is, quite sensibly, ‘we are the underdog’,” David said. “That’s a big difference from 2016. The knowledge that Trump can win is part of motivating people to really knuckle down. Will it be enough? I have absolutely no idea.”In other words: Harris’s hopes are, still, more or less a coin toss. That is more than enough to worry about without insisting that her defeat is a done deal.What else we’ve been readingView image in fullscreen

Cecilia Nowell’s dispatch from an abortion clinic in Phoenix – operating at the fringes of Arizona’s restrictive abortion laws – highlights the high stakes faced by healthcare providers in states with limited access to abortion care. Nimo

Reporting from Gaza is always incredibly difficult – but the tightening Israeli siege in the north of the territory has been subjected to an almost complete blackout, and five reporters were killed in Israeli airstrikes over the weekend. Bethan McKernan and Malak A Tantesh, who is in Gaza, do a superb job of piecing together the chilling details available. Archie

Technically, Microsoft Excel is a millennial. As the software celebrates its 40th birthday, Dan Milmo reflects on the fallout of some of the biggest blunders made by spreadsheet users. Nimo

Things you never knew: there are 16 polar bears living in the UK. Patrick Barkham’s piece, and Joshua Bright’s photos, tell the remarkable story – and ask whether it really makes sense that they should be here. Archie

“Games invite us to break free from the tyranny of efficiency. Play matters precisely because it’s unnecessary,” writes Tim Clare, who urges us to stop justifying our gaming time and simply enjoy it. Nimo
SportView image in fullscreenFootball | Manchester United were closing in on Rúben Amorim (above) as the club’s new manager on Monday night after Erik ten Hag was sacked earlier in the day. Ten Had finally lost his job after the club continued one of its worst starts to a Premier League season with a 2-1 defeat at West Ham on Sunday.Football | Rodri and Aitana Bonmatí have been named winners of the 2024 Ballon d’Or at football’s annual awards ceremony in Paris. Real Madrid boycotted the ceremony after learning that Vinícius Júnior had been beaten to the men’s prize.Rugby | Tom Curry is poised to start his first Test at Twickenham in almost two years as England gear up for their showdown against New Zealand on Saturday. The flanker is back after a serious hip injury which threatened to end his career.The front pagesView image in fullscreenThe lead story today in the Guardian is “Budget vow to rebuild ‘broken not beaten’ NHS”. “Billions in budget still won’t cure NHS, admits Streeting” – that’s the Mail, and it’s on the front of the Times as well: “Tax rises won’t cure the NHS, Labour concedes”. The Telegraph takes it a bit further: “NHS will need more tax rises, signals Reeves”, while the Mirror has “Labour’s war on waiting lists” under the strapline “Hope for the health service”. “Budget NI hike will damage core services, charities warn” says the i. And the Daily Express says “Chancellor told ‘it’s not too late’ for U-turn on winter fuel”.The Financial Times goes offshore for its splash: “Volkswagen’s plan to axe 3 German factories sets up battle with unions”. Top story in the Metro is “Deepfake photo paedo – Geek jailed for turning child photos into AI pornographic images”. The Sun leads on a claim that Erik Ten Hag will receive a £15m payoff as he leaves Manchester United: “Erik Ten Swag”.Today in FocusView image in fullscreenThe Trump supporters who took over Georgia’s election boardWhat happens when an election board in a crucial swing state is infiltrated by supporters of Donald Trump? Justin Glawe reportsCartoon of the day | Ben JenningsView image in fullscreenThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badView image in fullscreenSchool attendance rates in England and Wales declined during the pandemic and have as yet failed to recover. Last year, 150,000 students in England were classified as severely absent. Many teachers are trying innovative tactics to get pupils back into class, including offering therapy dogs, prize vouchers, wellness sessions and even taxi rides. Mary Immaculate high school near Cardiff in Wales went further by opening a £1.7m wellness centre, and its attendance rates are now above the national average.“We know it’s working,” says Nadia Yassien, head of a pastoral support programme at the school. “Students with low attendance are coming in regularly, on time, and happy – and that’s key, because they won’t learn if they hate the place.”Bored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

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It is generally believed that Americans only start to care about presidential elections one month before election day. Hence, it is only in the last month that polls become meaningful. If that is true, the polls don’t tell us too much yet.Despite the fact that Donald Trump has become openly authoritarian and racist – promising to jail his “enemies” and referring to immigrants as “cannibals” – the race is still too close to call. Almost all national polls have Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in the popular vote, but the difference is mostly within the so-called “margin of error” – meaning, in essence, that the difference is too small to be certain. So what should we look out for in the coming weeks?The polls: national v swing statesFirst of all, it is important to note that the US president is not directly elected. There is little doubt that Harris will win the popular vote – Democrats have won the popular vote in all but one of the presidential elections this century. But to become president, a candidate does not need to win the popular vote but the electoral college – ironically, given that the electoral college handed Trump the victory in 2016 and could do so again next month, the institution was introduced by the founders to protect the country from electing a “populist” president.So, rather than focusing on the national vote, we should focus on polls in so-called “swing states”. For the 2024 elections, these are expected to be the following seven states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Unsurprisingly, given that they are swing states, the polls are extremely close in all seven states. It is doubtful that this will change before election day on 5 November.The electoral coalitionTrump has the most homogeneous electoral coalition, consisting overwhelmingly of religious white voters. Over the last decades, predating Trump, the Republican party has become more evangelical, male and white. Although that demographic is decreasing as a percentage of the population, the enthusiasm for Trump within the group is high. Moreover, polls are indicating that Trump is picking up Hispanic and, to a lesser extent, (male) African American voters.The main worry for the Republican party are (suburban) white women, who have supported Trump in majority before. Since the Dobbs ruling put abortion back at the top of the agenda, and younger women are much more liberal than previous generations, white women could cost Trump the election – particularly if young white women vote in similar numbers as older generations.Although Harris has a larger potential electorate, it is also much more changing and heterogeneous as well as much harder to mobilize. Traditionally, the Democrats win large majorities of both African American and Hispanic voters as well as a large minority of white voters. Although Harris has brought back the enthusiasm lost under Joe Biden’s lackluster campaign and debate performance, and largely closed the gap with Trump, there are several groups that could cost her the elections.Hispanic voters have been moving to the Republican party for several years now, while a group of African American men seem unwilling to vote for a woman as president. And then there is Gaza, which has turned a lot of Arab Americans and Muslim Americans – as well as progressive white voters – off the Democratic party. In most of these cases, the question is not so much whether they will vote for Harris or Trump but rather whether they will vote for Harris or not vote at all.Election day will not be decision dayIf you think it is frustrating that the polls don’t give us a highly likely winner before election day, you will be even more frustrated to hear that you still will probably not know the winner on 5 November. Four years ago, most major networks only called the election on 7 November, four days after election day. It will almost certainly take even longer this year, as Republicans have introduced a host of measures to make it more difficult and slower to count the votes (such as hand counting).skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAnd once the votes are finally counted, and particularly if they don’t hand Trump a victory, we can expect several institutional challenges to the results. Since their failed attempt to challenge the 2020 election, Republicans have tightened their grip on electoral boards and state courts, including in some swing states like Georgia. No wonder election experts have raised alarm that the vote counting and certifying will not just lead to delays but also to chaos.Post-electoral violence?Even when all the votes are counted, and the final result is certified, it is doubtful that the country will move on – particularly if Trump loses the election. This is in itself not that surprising: both Trump and his vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, still do not recognize Biden’s election, while 57% of Republicans believe Biden’s election was “illegitimate”. Moreover, both Trump and Vance have indicated that they would not recognize a defeat in November, a position shared by almost half of Republican voters (and more than a quarter of Democratic voters).Unsurprisingly, there is a growing worry in the country about post-electoral violence, among both Democrats and Republicans. In fact, almost half of the population thinks it is “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that the country would slip into a civil war! While the combination of conspiracy theories and a large number of (semi-automatic) weapons makes some post-electoral violence highly likely, I doubt we will see another insurrection, let alone a civil war. That said, there is little doubt we are in for a very tense period, which will last well beyond 5 November.

Cas Mudde is the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia, and author of The Far Right Today More

Hulk Hogan, the retired WWE wrestler, has taken the stage, sporting yellow sunglasses and a red “Trump-Vance” tank top. He took a few jabs at Vice President Kamala Harris.“Kamala is responsible for the border crisis, and Kamala is also responsible for inflation,” he said. “She acts like she’s the victim, and then all of a sudden, she flips, she flops, she spins and turns it around and acts like she’s gonna be the damn hero.”The disgraced former Fox News host Tucker Carlson is expressing his support for former president Donald Trump at a campaign event in New York City.“He’s liberated us in the deepest and truest sense,” Carlson said about Trump. “And the liberation he has brought to us is the liberation from the obligation to tell lies. Donald Trump has made it possible for the rest of us to tell the truth about the world around us, and that’s the single most liberating thing you can do for people.”Vivek Ramaswamy, Tulsi Gabbard, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., in that order, took the stage at Donald Trump’s campaign rally at Madison Square Garden. Ramaswamy made transphobic remarks, while Gabbard listed some of the ways she believes Vice President Kamala Harris will harm the country.“A vote for Kamala Harris is a vote for economic hardship, high cost of living, poverty and homelessness,” Gabbard said. “And a vote for Donald Trump is a vote for economic prosperity and opportunity for every single one of us as Americans.”So far, the speakers at Donald Trump’s rally in New York City have resorted to lewd language and racist remarks in their speeches.A stand-up routine from comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, for example, was filled with racist stereotypes of Latinos, Jews and Black people.“I don’t know if you guys know this, but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico,” said Hinchcliffe, whose joke was flagged by Democrat Kamala Harris’ campaign.Speaker Mike Johnson made an appearance at Donald Trump’s rally in New York City.He said he felt a resurgence of the Republican party and pointed to a widespread dissatisfaction with current policies under the Biden administration.“We’re in a battle between two completely different visions for who we are as a nation and who we’re going to be,” Johnson said. ‘“This is not your father’s Democratic Party. They are now full on Marxism and socialism.”The vice-president said she would create an “opportunity economy taskforce” in efforts to foster economic growth in the Caribbean archipelago by creating more jobs.She also recognized the need to urgently rebuild Puerto Rico’s energy grid. The US territory is still facing the aftermath of several hurricanes that ravaged the power grid. Puerto Rico is also undergoing the effects of austerity measures imposed by a non-elected fiscal board after the local government filed for the largest municipal bankruptcy in US history.“I will cut red tape to ensure disaster recovery funds are used quickly and effectively, and work with leaders across the island to ensure all Puerto Ricans have access to reliable, affordable electricity,” she said.“I will never forget what Donald Trump did and what he did not do when Puerto Rico needed a caring and incompetent leader,” she said. “He abandoned the island, tried to block aid after back-to-back devastating hurricanes and offered nothing more than paper towels and insults,” she added.Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, wrapped up her nearly 15-minute speech in Philadephia.She encouraged the crowd to convince their families and friends to get out and vote, using similar phrases to those in her campaign ads.“There is too much on the line, and we must not wake up the day after the election and have any regrets about what we could have done in these next nine days,” she said.Vice President Kamala Harris directed her remarks toward younger voters in the Pennsylvania crowd.“Is Gen Z in the house?” she asked. “You are rightly impatient for change. You are rightly impatient. You who have only known the climate crisis, you are leaders in what we need to do to protect our planet.”
“You, who grew up with active shooter drills,” she said. “You, who right now know fewer rights than your mothers and grandmothers understand the importance of fighting for the right of a woman to make decisions about her own body and not have her government tell her what to do.”
The Vice President spoke about the war in Gaza less than five minutes into her speech.“We must seize this opportunity to end this war and bring the hostages home,” she said. “I will do everything in my power to meet that end.”Jacob Roberts, a 26-year-old voter from Westchester attending Harris’ rally in North Philadelphia, has already voted early for her.He told the Guardian that he feels optimistic about the outcome of the election, even as polls show a tied race in Pennsylvania.“I’m seeing a lot of Kamala yard signs around,” Roberts said. “I actually just drove out to western Pennsylvania. I didn’t see a lot of Trump signs on barns or anything, so I think we’re looking good.”Asked whether he was disappointed to miss some of the Eagles game to attend the rally, Roberts said it was well worth it.“This is our country we’re talking about,” Roberts said.Brenda Exon, a 60-year-old voter from Wallingford known as the “Philly Pride Lady,” is at Kamala Harris’ rally in Philadelphia with her “timeline to liberty” apron.The apron tells the story of Philadelphia, from the founding of Pennsylvania to the signing of the Declaration of Independence and the civil rights movement.“Our Philly story is our nation’s story, and that’s what we’re fighting for really. We don’t want Donald Trump to take this away,” Exon said.“We’re coming up on our 250th [anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence], and who should be president celebrating that in 2026? Kamala Harris.”Trump approved Rudy Giuliani to be on the stage tonight at the Madison Square Garden rally, according to a person familiar.Giuliani walked into the stage at the Trump rally to the loudest cheers so far of the event and a standing ovation from a capacity Madison Square Garden.Giuliani opened by referencing when Pope John Paul came to NY in 1995, a visit Giuliani presumably recalls because it took place while he was mayor.It’s the kind of anecdote that will play well with most of the crowd here but there are many younger Trump supporters here who have no idea what that’s about.Governor Tim Walz joined Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the congresswoman from New York, on a Twitch livestream as the two played the American football video game Madden and talked about the election.The unconventional campaign appearance comes as the Harris-Walz campaign tries to drum up support among young male voters. In 2020, Ocasio-Cortez’s first appearance on Twitch was one of the platform’s most-watched events at that time.Here’s Michael Sainato with more on the stream:On the six-year anniversary of a shooting at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh, Kamala Harris and her husband Doug Emhoff have released statements acknowledging the mass shooting.“Six years ago today, a white supremacist committed the deadliest attack on American Jews in our nation’s history,” Emhoff wrote. “We honor the lives of those lost on that horrific day by continuing our fight against antisemitism and hate in all its forms.”A federal judge blocked the state of Virginia from removing suspected noncitizens from the voter rolls, CNN reported.The court cited potential violations of a federal ban on “systematic” removals within 90 days of an election.The 4th Circuit Court of Appeals’ decision paves the way for a potential Supreme Court battle as early voting begins in Virginia. Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, have rallied around the case, arguing that noncitizen voting is a significant election risk, despite its rarity.The order clarifies that Virginia can still prevent noncitizen voting by canceling registrations on an individual basis or prosecuting noncitizens who vote.Today so farThanks for joining us this morning. As I hand over to my colleague Coral Murphy Marcos, here are the main headlines we’ve been following today so far:

In a bevy of Sunday morning talk show appearances, JD Vance defended Donald Trump against claims from former Trump staffers that the ex-president has authoritarian tendencies. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris described her choice to deliver her closing argument speech at The Ellipse, Lindsey Graham denounced attacks against Trump’s character and Bernie Sanders said Trump has “strong tendency toward authoritarianism”.

This morning, Kamala Harris campaigned “neighborhood-to-neighborhood” in Philadelphia, kicking off the morning by attending services at a predominantly Black church before heading to a nearby barbershop to speak with young Black men. She’ll be stopping at a Puerto Rican restaurant later this afternoon before speaking at a rally this evening.

Supporters of Donald Trump’s have already begun gathering at Madison Square Garden as the ex-president prepares to deliver his closing arguments there. Campaigning in Nevada today, Tim Walz has criticized the rally as “a direct parallel” to a Nazi rally held at the venue in 1939.

Following the news that the Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times will not endorse a presidential candidate this year, the New York Times opinion section has published a full page image reminding readers that it endorsed Kamala Harris last month. Earlier this week, our own editorial page strongly endorsed Kamala Harris for president.

In the final days of the 2024 election, Harris’s campaign has slowballed Joe Biden’s offers to campaign for his vice-president, Axios reports. More