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      The future of the world may depend on what a few thousand Pennsylvania voters think about their grocery bills | Timothy Garton Ash

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      On 5 November, people around the globe will tune in to watch the world election. It’s not a “world” election in the sense of the World Cup – a football championship in which many nations actively participate – but it’s much more than a World Series, the curiously named baseball championship that involves only teams from North America. This year has been called the biggest election year in history. By the end of it, something approaching half the world’s adult population will have had the possibility to put a cross against a name on a ballot paper. But the US presidential election is the year’s big match.Why? Because this is a genuine democratic election that will result in a single person holding exceptionally concentrated executive power in what is still the world’s most powerful country. It’s a highly watchable soap opera, with a classic plot familiar to all. And one of this year’s two contenders, Donald Trump, is a danger to his own country and the world. If the “election” of the president of China, the world’s other superpower, were a genuine democratic choice, that event would perhaps be as consequential. But it isn’t, so it isn’t. Russia had a presidential “election” earlier this year, but at issue was only the size of Vladimir Putin’s declared majority.Equally, if the US were a parliamentary democracy, and especially if it had an electoral system of proportional representation, the stakes would not be so high. The resulting government would depend on the party-political composition of parliament and in many such countries you routinely end up with coalition governments. Even in Britain’s “elective dictatorship”, as the Conservative politician Lord Hailsham (Quintin Hogg) once characterised the British political system, the prime minister has significantly less power than a US president. President Emmanuel Macron of France is now behaving as if he thinks he is the US president, with an unrestricted right to form the nation’s government, but that’s not what his country’s constitution says.As the American political scientist Corey Brettschneider reminds us in his new book, The Presidents and the People, the danger inherent in this concentration of power was already highlighted by Patrick Henry, a hero of the American war of independence, when the US constitution was debated at the Virginia ratifying convention in 1788. What if a criminal were elected president, Henry asked. What if he could abuse his position as singular head of the executive branch and commander in chief of the military to realise his criminal ambitions? Well, here we are 236 years later, and a convicted felon and notorious fan of autocrats is neck-and-neck with the newly crowned Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris.If her opponent were Nikki Haley, the runner-up in the Republican primary contest, the drama would be nothing like as intense. This would be something like a normal election. But it’s Trump, so it isn’t.I arrived in the US the day before Joe Biden finally conceded that he would not stand again. Since then we have witnessed a tidal wave of hope flow into the candidacy of Harris and her folksy running mate, Tim Walz. This culminated in the Democratic national convention in Chicago, where the usual orgy of razzmatazz was accompanied by genuine joy and unabashed flag-waving patriotism.View image in fullscreenTo their own and everyone else’s surprise, the Democrats give every impression of being united. Harris raised about $500m for her campaign in just a month. She is not a great orator, like Bill Clinton and both Obamas, but she gave an excellent acceptance speech. She introduced herself to the American public as the child of an indomitable Indian immigrant mother. She elaborated on her campaign’s brilliantly chosen theme of freedom – therefore taking what has been for years a Republican leitmotif and reconnecting liberty with liberalism. She listed some of those freedoms from that are also freedoms to: women’s freedom to decide about their own bodies, the freedom to live safe from gun violence, the freedom to love whom you choose, the freedom to breathe clean air, the freedom to vote.Importantly for a female candidate with a left-liberal background, Harris successfully conveyed the image of a strong leader who would give the US “the strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world” and enable it to out-do China in the competition for the 21st century and “stand strong with Ukraine and our Nato allies”. In substance, 90% of this could equally have been said by Biden, but the way she said it – not least in seeming credibly to care about the heartbreaking scale of Palestinian suffering – made it feel new and promising.As a result, enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate has soared – but only to the point where this election has become too close to call. Recalling his own electrifying slogan from the 2008 election, “Yes we can”, Barack Obama told the convention, “Yes she can!”Yes, she can; but that doesn’t mean she will. She may be marginally ahead in nationwide polling, but with the antiquated electoral system that the US uses for its presidential election, she could win the popular vote, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016, and still lose because of a few tens of thousands of swing voters in battleground states in the midwest and the sun belt.One leading pollster tells me that the top three issues for the electorate are the economy, crime and immigration, and on all three, Republicans typically have the edge. Trump himself looks all over the place, giving long rambling speeches, but he’s a formidable political counter-puncher.The social aquifers of white working-class anger are still very full, especially among men. (The gender gap is very marked in the Harris v Trump contest.) Moreover, if it’s a narrow victory for Harris, Trump will immediately declare the election “stolen”, and we will be set for a long bout of bitter litigation, as happened in 2000, but with the supreme court now seen by many as biased towards the Republican side.All of which is a long way of saying: nobody knows. And that, after all, is the hallmark of a genuine democratic election. But here’s the uniquely curious thing about this one. Millions of people all over the world, from Austria to Zimbabwe, not only follow it closely but also know many of the sometimes arcane psephological details that may decide the result in the electoral college. This is not just because Washington is the world’s political theatre, as much as Netflix is now the world’s movie theatre, but because the result will have important consequences for them. If you are Ukrainian or Palestinian, it may literally be a matter of life and death.Ultimately, what is most peculiar about this world election is the sheer incongruity of cause and potential effect. Whether women and children in Kharkiv or Rafah live or die may depend on what Mike the mechanic in Michigan and Penny the teacher in Pennsylvania think about their grocery bills.

      Timothy Garton Ash is a historian, political writer and Guardian columnist More

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      Was Kamala Harris’s big interview a success? Sort of | Moira Donegan

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      How much of an incentive does Kamala Harris really have to lay out a thorough policy agenda? With fewer than 70 days until the general election, the newly official Democratic presidential nominee has exited her party’s Chicago convention riding a a wave of tight but improving poll numbers and tremendous party goodwill.Her move to the top of the ticket has prompted waves of enthusiasm and barely concealed relief, as young voters and weary Democrats greeted the happy prospect of an election campaign that was, at last, not between Biden and Trump. The shift of candidates initiated a new shift in the campaign’s voice, with a more playful, irreverent and optimistic turn coming to characterize the Democrats’ public messaging. When the vibes are this good, few people ask about specifics.There are pitfalls, too, for a politician who is too precise about what they aim to do in office. After all, much of the Democrats’ 2024 campaigning has featured deep dives into Project 2025, the 900-plus-page policy prescription for a second Trump term that was compiled by conservative thinktanks under the auspices of the Heritage Foundation. Democrats, including Harris herself, have used the document as a near-depthless well of possible attacks, making each one of the plan’s copious number of proposals into an attack that they can make Republicans answer for. As Harris heads into the final weeks of the campaign, one can see a certain cynical logic to her imprecise policy positions: why would she bother painting a target on her own back?So maybe it’s not surprising that on Thursday night, in her first major interview since ascending to the presidential nomination, the vice-president did not seem interested in making any news. She was competent, personable and a forceful defender of the Biden administration; she was attentive to issues where her campaign believes her to be vulnerable, such as on immigration and energy policy; and she was deliberate in depicting herself as a hawkish advocate for stricter border controls.She did not talk much about her opponent, Donald Trump, brushing off a question from CNN’s Dana Bash about his recent slanderous claim that Harris had only recently “turned Black”. She did not endorse an arms embargo to Israel, whose genocidal war in Gaza has killed upwards of 40,000 Palestinians with the aid of American weapons. And with the exception of a few economic proposals – like for an expansion of the child tax credit, a $25,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers and a repeat of her promise to punish price gauging – she was light on specifics.The interview seemed to be less about presenting a policy vision for the American people than about presenting them with a character. The character that emerged in the form of Vice-President Harris was one who is confident, intelligent and at ease with her authority; one who was unfazed by Bash’s sometimes pointed questioning, in part because she has mastered the art of the dodge.Among the interview’s surprising omissions was abortion, the issue that has redefined the status, health and civil rights of half of Americans as a result of the presidency of her opponent. The word was only mentioned once over the course of the interview, when the vice-presidential nominee, Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, mentioned the issue as something that voters were more interested in than his own previous verbal gaffes. He’s probably right that voters care more about it, but both he and Harris declined to address the issue further.Harris, historically a forceful advocate for abortion rights who was largely tasked with campaigning on the issue while Biden was still in the race, seemed to demur from the historical nature of her candidacy more broadly. When Bash asked her about a viral photo from the Democratic national convention – which pictured Harris at the podium, being gazed up at by her great-niece, a pigtailed young girl – she avoided the question’s implicit inquiry into how she feels about the prospect of becoming the nation’s first female president. Harris said only that she was running because she believed herself to be the best person for the job, and that she aimed to be a president for Americans of all races and genders.It was a nice sentiment, and probably even true. But her words avoided the gender issue that has come to shape the campaign, and left aside an opportunity to rally voters in the 10 states that will have abortion rights measures on the ballot in November. If anyone in the Harris campaign feels that electing a woman president now, in this post-Dobbs era, could be a righteous rebuke to the backward and bigoted misogyny that has come to define the Trump-Vance ticket, then that is not an argument they are interested in having their candidate make.Harris will be criticized on the left for her refusal to endorse an arms embargo to Israel, whose war has become a generational moral catastrophe that threatens to destabilize the region. When asked about the conflict, Harris spoke of the atrocities of 7 October in lurid terms; of the unfathomable human cost that has been imposed on Palestinians, she said only that “far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed”. (An unfortunate phrase that implies that there is an acceptable number of innocents that Israel can murder.) Her unwillingness to speak with more empathy and commitment about this issue threatens to alienate young voters, a disorganized but growing left, and the large cohorts of Muslim and Arab voters she needs to win over in places like Minnesota and Michigan.That unwillingness also threatens to give more credence to other leftwing suspicions of Harris, such as the marginal but noticeable suspicion among activists over whether she will maintain Biden’s enthusiasm for antitrust enforcement.Maybe Harris is calculating that these voters have nowhere else to go; maybe she just doesn’t really share their values on these issues. But the central argument for her candidacy is about values: that she is a more moral, more principled, more trustworthy candidate than Donald Trump; that she will bring less bigotry, less selfishness, less recklessness and less tedious narcissism to the White House. It’s a low bar, but she still has to clear it. If Harris’s campaign is about values, but she is unwilling to more forcefully champion women’s rights and the value of Palestinian lives, she risks making some wonder just what those values are.

      Moira Donegan is a Guardian US columnist More

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      Kamala Harris’s much-hyped, first big interview was … radically normal

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      Donald Trump spent Thursday in Michigan raving about bacon, windmills, Al Capone, trans boxers, nuclear war and, of course, his crowd size. Weird! Kamala Harris and Tim Walz gave an interview on CNN that was … radically normal.Just as she did a week ago at the Democratic national convention, the vice-president was comfortable and composed, solid and unspectacular, doing enough to clear the bar and doing herself no harm. She turned a much hyped first interview as nominee into a soon-to-be-forgotten pit stop along the campaign trail.Perhaps most important was the personality test. The old saw in presidential campaigns was: which candidate would you rather have a beer with? Harris and Walz came over as the couple you’d be fine sharing cake and coffee with at your kids’ birthday party. The same cannot be said of the former president and his running mate, JD Vance.Democrats’ bet is that Americans crave such relatability after a decade of Trump’s malignant narcissism and Joe Biden’s struggles with old age. The current president turned every interview into a nerve-wracking high-wire act. Harris was a fresh-faced model of steadiness by comparison.But as the 27-minute interview unfolded, she was notably more at ease embracing Biden and his legacy than her own historic candidacy as potentially the first Black female president. Democrats may value her loyalty in refusing to disown her boss. Republicans may scent an opportunity to portray her as Biden-lite.Perhaps Harris’s weakest answer was her first. Wearing grey and sitting in a cafe in Savannah, Georgia, she was asked by CNN’s Dana Bash: “If you are elected, what would you do on day one in the White House?” Harris replied: “Well, there are a number of things. I will tell you, first and foremost, one of my highest priorities is to do what we can to support and strengthen the middle class … ”When Bash pressed: “So, what would you do day one?”, Harris talked about the “opportunity economy”. Political consultant Frank Luntz was unimpressed, tweeting: “Her answer was so vague that it was essentially worthless. Not a good start.”Then again, when Trump was asked the same question about day one, he said he would be a dictator. So there’s that.Harris was then asked about her policy reversals on fracking and the Green New Deal. She avoided a gaffe but gave an answer that bordered on a wonky word salad: “I have always believed – and I have worked on it – that the climate crisis is real, that it is an urgent matter to which we should apply metrics that include holding ourselves to deadlines around time.”She did better explaining a U-turn on decriminalising illegal border crossings, pointing out that she is the only person in the race who has prosecuted transnational criminal organisations who traffic in guns, drugs and human beings, then pivoting to accuse Trump of sinking border security legislation. “He killed the bill – a border security bill that would have put 1,500 more agents on the border.”Policy is often a surrogate for values. Harris’s central message on her policy shifts: “My values have not changed.” Translation: you know and I know that some policies have to be tweaked, or made vague, if I want to win swing state voters.Addressing a national audience, rather than a rally, Harris was also careful not to alienate the type of Republicans who supported Nikki Haley. She said she would appoint a Republican to her cabinet if elected, though she did not have a particular name in mind. “I have spent my career inviting diversity of opinion.”When Bash asked her about Trump’s questioning of Harris’s racial identity, she could have unleashed a long and angry tirade about his history of racism. Instead she wisely chose the pithy response: “Same old tired playbook, next question please.”Bash asked: “That’s it?” Harris confirmed: “That’s it.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThis might offer a clue as to her strategy for next month’s presidential debate: cut Trump down to size with a short sharp line, then move on to her own more optimistic, future-facing agenda. Call it the “Honey, I Shrunk the Trump” approach.Much was made of the fact that Walz was involved in the interview. In the end, Harris got the lion’s share, with Walz looking down at the ground during the tougher moments. She seemed to watch him with a benign, proud smile.But when Bash put it to Walz that he once said he carried weapons in war, even though he never deployed in a war zone, Walz parried: “Yeah … in this case, this was after a school shooting … and my wife, the English teacher, told me my grammar is not always correct.” It just felt like a dodge.The interview ended with Bash asking about a photo of one of Harris’s young grandnieces watching as she delivered her address to the last week’s convention – and the historic nature of candidate. Harris seemed to think cautiously, as if wary of an identity politics trap.“I am running because I believe that I am the best person to do this job at this moment for all Americans, regardless of race and gender,” she said. “But I did see that photograph, and I was deeply touched by it.”Just like her convention speech, it was a far cry from the “I’m with her” chants of Hillary Clinton’s effort to smash the glass ceiling eight years ago. Harris is adopting a show, don’t tell approach. That left viewers not entirely clear how a Harris administration would differ from a Biden one. But they may also have no doubt that Harris and Walz would represent a return to the politics of normal. More

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      ‘Next question, please’ and Gaza war: key takeaways from Harris and Walz’s first interview

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      In a primetime spot on CNN Thursday evening, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz sat for their first interview together as the Democratic ticket, taking questions from anchor Dana Bash on a range of important issues, including their plans for day 1 if they win the race, the approach to the war in Gaza, and how Joe Biden passed the baton.With just over two months until voters will head to the polls on 5 November – and even less time before some will mail in their ballots – the Democratic candidates for president and vice-president made good on a promise to speak more candidly about how they will tackle the US’s most pressing problems.But this interview was about more than just policies and priorities.For weeks, Republicans and members of the media have called for the nominees to open themselves up to questions, especially the vice-president, who has for the most part sidestepped unscripted moments in the six weeks since the president ended his bid for re-election and endorsed her. Analysts and opponents were watching Thurday’s interview closely for new insights into how a Harris administration would approach the presidency, how the candidates interact with one another, and how she would respond in more candid moments.Here’s what we learned:1. Harris: ‘My values have not changed’Bash pushed Harris on how voters should view some key shifts on important policy positions over the years, including on immigration and the climate crisis. Harris responded resolutely saying her “values have not changed” but explained that experience has provided some new insights.“As president I will not ban fracking,” Harris said, reversing a position she expressed during her first bid for the presidency. Explaining that she now believes a “thriving clean energy economy” can be built without a ban, Harris highlighted achievements from the Biden administration, including the US’s landmark climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, that have helped set the course. “The climate crisis is real, it is an urgent matter,” she said. “I am very clear about where I stand.”She also spoke about her work on the border and how she plans to address the immigration crisis. “I believe we have laws that have to be followed and enforced,” she said, adding that she is the only person in the race who has prosecuted transnational criminal organizations, work she did as California’s attorney general.2. Day one: strengthen the middle classIf Harris is elected president, she will start by working to strengthen the middle class with a strategy she is calling “The Opportunity Economy”. Building from “Bidenomics” – a platform her predecessor used to move away from trickle-down policies that favor the wealthy and instead grow the economy “from the middle out and the bottom up – Harris outlined her plan to help struggling families.“People are ready for a new way forward,” she said, highlighting that she hopes to bring down costs of everyday goods with key investments, cracking down on price gouging, and expanding the child tax credit. She also reiterated her plan to secure $25,000 in assistance for first-time homebuyers.While she agreed with Bash that prices remain higher than they were during the Trump presidency, she argued that she and Biden ensured the country recovered from the Covid-19 crisis.“Bidenomics is a success,” she said. “There’s more to do – but that’s good work.”3. War in Gaza: ‘We have to get a deal done’“Israel has a right to defend itself – we would,” Harris said, emphasizing that she is “unequivocal” in Israel’s defense and that that position would not change. But, she added: “How it does so matters.”Harris told Bash she supports a two-state solution where Palestinians have “security, self determination, and dignity”, and said she is focused on both getting the remaining hostages out and a ceasefire.“Far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed,” she said. “We have got to get a deal done. This war must end.”4. Tim Walz defends his recordThrough much of the interview, Harris’s running mate Tim Walz nodded in support while she detailed their platform. But Bash had questions for him too, specifically about claims he has made in the past and corrections his campaign has had to make about them.Walz served in the army national guard for 24 years and retired in 2005 to run for Congress, nearly a year before his unit deployed to Iraq. He has been criticized by Republicans who first questioned his decision to depart before his unit deployed, and then scrutinized for a statement he made about “weapons of war” that implied he’d been involved in active combat.Walz also incorrectly described the type of fertility treatments he and his wife sought in their effort to conceive, several times referring to their reliance on IVF. He later clarified they actually used another common fertility procedure called IUI, or intrauterine insemination, which does not involve creating or discarding embryos and is not a target for anti-abortion legislators.“My record speaks for itself,” he said. “I certainly own my mistakes when I make them … I won’t apologize for speaking passionately – whether it’s about guns in schools or protecting reproductive rights – the contrast could not be clearer.”5. Getting the call from Biden“We were sitting down to do a puzzle,” Harris said with a big smile. Before Thursday’s interview, little was known about how she came to learn that Biden would be withdrawing from the race. She described a family breakfast with her “baby nieces”, complete with pancakes and second-servings of bacon, that had just wrapped up when the phone began to ring.“It was Joe Biden. He told me what he decided to do,” she said, adding that he quickly offered his support for her candidacy. “My first thought was not about me – it was about him,” she said.“I think history is going to show a number of things about Joe Biden’s presidency,” Harris added. “He puts the American people first.”6. Impacting future generationsBash also asked about the now viral New York Times photo of young Amara Ajagu, one of Harris’s young grandnieces, watching Harris accept her party’s nomination, and what it means for her as a woman of color. Donald Trump had previously questioned her racial identity, making comments at the National Association of Black Journalists convention saying she “happened to turn Black”.Harris called Trump’s comments “the same old tired playbook”, and dismissed them with a curt: “Next question, please.”But she took the opportunity to look past race while also recognizing the importance of this moment, especially for younger generations.“I am running because I believe I am the best person to do this job in this moment – for all Americans, regardless of race and gender,” Harris said. “But I did see that photograph, and I was deeply touched by it.” More

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      Trump takes sexist Harris attacks to ‘whole other level’ on Truth Social

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      Donald Trump has reposted a crudely misogynistic comment about Kamala Harris on Truth Social in a move that reprised his past record of sexist behaviour and brazenly flouted pleas from members of his own party to emphasize issues over personal attacks.With fresh polls showing Harris further improving her standing – and widening the gap with her opponent among women voters – Trump drew online opprobrium by sharing a vulgar post on his social media site implying that the Democratic nominee owed her political rise to sexual favours.The post – originally posted by another user – featured photos of Harris and Hillary Clinton alongside the comment: “Funny how blowjobs impacted both their careers differently…”The comment was an oblique reference to innuendo surrounding Harris’s former relationship with Willie Brown, the San Francisco mayor. The mention of Clinton – Trump’s defeated opponent in the 2016 presidential election – alluded to the affair between Monica Lewinsky, a former White House intern, and her husband Bill Clinton in the 1990s, which came close to ending his presidency.It was not the first time Trump had made lewd references to Harris. On 18 August, he shared a video by the Dilley Meme Team, a group of rightwing content creators, to the soundtrack of a parody of the Alanis Morrisette song Ironic that contained the lines, “She spent her whole damn life down on her knees”, as an image of Brown appeared behind a picture of the US vice-president and her husband, Doug Emhoff.But the latest post appeared among a flurry of other extreme posts on Wednesday that also included tributes to the QAnon conspiracy theory that holds that Trump is waging war against an elite network of Satan-worshipping pedophiles in government, business and the media.He reposted: “WWG1WGA! RETRUTH IF YOU AGREE.” The acronym is short for the QAnon slogan: “where we go one, we go all.” He similarly reposted another QAnon phrase: “nothing can stop what is coming.”The FBI has previously identified fringe theories like QAnon – which Trump has stopped short of endorsing while praising its supporters – as likely to fuel domestic terrorism.In yet another incendiary communication, Trump posted manipulated images of some of his favourite targets – including the entrepreneur Bill Gates, Anthony Fauci, who spearheaded the US vaccine effort against Covid-19, Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi – imprisoned and wearing orange jumpsuits.The Harris campaign made no immediate response to Trump’s latest burst of social media activity, which followed disclosures of an altercation between his campaign team and staff at Arlington national cemetery, the resting place of fallen US military heroes, during a visit on Monday.However, the CNN host Anderson Cooper – in a lengthy segment – said the posts took Trump’s previous campaigning to a “whole other level”.“This is the Republican candidate for president and the 45th president of the United States, talking about two women who, no matter what you think of their politics, are two of the most accomplished women in American political history,” Cooper said.Wednesday’s online outbursts came as a new Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Harris with a four-point nationwide lead, 45% to 41%, over Trump. Among women, the survey showed the vice-president increasing her lead to 13%, compared with an average of 9% in polls for July.A separate Fox News survey showed Harris leading or increasing her support in four southern Sun belt states, all considered vital battlegrounds in November.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionIn a two-way race, Harris was up by one point in Arizona and by two points in Georgia and Nevada, while Trump is ahead by one point in North Carolina, according to the poll.Beyond the polls, there was irritation among Republicans strategists who had previously urged Trump to desist from attacking Harris personally and focus on issues of concern to voters, such as the economy, inflation and immigration.“I think people are incredibly frustrated,” Jason Roe, a former executive director of the Michigan Republican party, told the Washington Post.He said Harris’s campaign and policy stances gave “opportunities for the Trump campaign to talk about issues that actually will matter to swing voters. And rather than doing that, he’s delving into this nonsense.”Stuart Stevens, a member of the anti-Trump Republican group, the Lincoln Project, and a strategist for Mitt Romney’s failed 2012 presidential bid, challenged widespread predictions of a close election by suggesting that Trump’s approach would eventually alienate voters and enable Harris to win convincingly.“There’s been a lot of talk – it’s sort of a universal truth – that this election is going to be close,” he told CNN. “I have a different opinion. I think it’ll be close till about October 20th, and then I think it’s going to be like Carter versus Reagan [in 1980, when Reagan won in a landslide], that the bottom is going to start to drop out [of Trump’s campaign].“I think this is going to be a race that Democrats are going to win by more than Biden did,” he added. More

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      The Wisconsin race that could tip the Democratic majority in the US Senate

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      Tammy Baldwin faces a race in November that will test the rural-urban coalition the Democratic Wisconsin senator has built and help determine whether Democrats will be able to hold onto their narrow majority in the US senate.Baldwin faces Eric Hovde, a real estate mogul and banker, who has campaigned on popular Republican issues like immigration and the economy, while linking Baldwin to Joe Biden.Baldwin, who was first elected in 2012 on a tide of progressive support, is one of 23 Democratic US senators up for re-election this year; her ability to keep the support of voters in purple and red districts could determine the outcome of the critical race.Baldwin has maintained relationships and a support base among farmers and rural voters, even as Democratic attrition from rural parts of the state has eroded Democratic margins in other statewide races. It’s a trend so persistent that “Trump-Tammy” voters are recognized as a constituency in Badwin’s base – with the senator winning 17 counties during her 2016 election that Trump won the same year.“That’s definitely Tammy’s bread and butter right there,” said campaign spokesperson Jackie Rosa, of Baldwin’s rural supporters.On the campaign trail, Baldwin has made stops at farms and in rural areas, launching a “Rural Leaders for Tammy” coalition to make her case in areas of the state that tend to lean red. Issues like healthcare access and hospital deserts and subsidies for farmers form core aspects of her platform. She has highlighted populist-leaning bills, like one she drafted with JD Vance, the Republican senator and vice-presidential candidate, to require goods and services developed with federal dollars in the US to be manufactured in the US. She has even taken up issues that are less popular with liberals, like removing gray wolves from Wisconsin’s endangered species list – a move supported by some farmers but criticized by environmental and conservation groups.“She never shied away from going out into the countryside,” said Hans Breitenmoser, a dairy farmer from northern Wisconsin and a member of the Lincoln county Democratic party. “I think her message has resonated to an extent, because, you know, it’s not just all BS – she tries to understand the issues, and understands the issues at a level that some other politicians don’t.”For Hovde to win the seat, he will have to erode that support and hope for high turnout outside heavily Democratic areas like Milwaukee and Dane county, which have generated historic voter turnout in recent elections.Polling so far shows a close race, with Baldwin holding an approximately seven-point lead over Hovde, according to a poll conducted at the end of July by the Marquette University Law School. An earlier poll, conducted in June – before Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race – showed Hovde trailing Baldwin more closely.Hovde, whose campaign did not agree to an interview, is something of a blank slate. On his website, he highlights a few key issues – among them, immigration, foreign policy and healthcare – but does not specify policy solutions he supports. He has earned Trump’s endorsement – a possible boost for the businessman – but has not held public office, and will need to overcome accusations from the Baldwin campaign of carpetbagging. That could be challenging.Although Hovde grew up in Madison and maintains numerous real estate properties there, the Baldwin campaign has cast him as an out-of-touch rich guy, pointing to his mansion in Laguna Beach, California – and his status in years past as one of Orange county’s most influential businessmen – as evidence of his position as an outsider.Baldwin has focused much of her campaign messaging on the fact that with a net worth of more than $195m, Hovde would be among the wealthiest members of the Senate if elected.In recent political ads, Hovde has highlighted his diagnosis of multiple sclerosis and the numerous international charities he operates to offer a more personal side and present his wealth as a political asset.But he handles the topic of his finances sometimes uncomfortably. In numerous talk radio interviews, Hovde, who has slammed the Democrats for persistently inflated consumer prices, acknowledged that inflation could be good for a wealthy businessman like himself.“Look – inflation helps in the short to medium term, people who own assets – I’ve benefitted, because my real estate values go up, my equity portfolio goes up, the value of my private companies go up,” said Hovde in 2021, during a Wisconsin talk radio show hosted by Vicki McKenna, a popular rightwing radio personality. “But it hammers people who have a set salary, or lower-income people.”On an episode of a rightwing podcast called The Truth with Lisa Boothe in March, he echoed a similar sentiment, decrying the rise of inflation and its impact on the middle class before noting that he himself had somewhat enjoyed the period of inflation. “For those that own assets, you know, I benefit because I own real estate and stocks and companies. So, yeah, it makes me wealthier, but it’s hammering, you know, 90% of Americans,” said Hovde.According to his most recent filings with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Hovde has loaned $13m to his campaign, which has raised about $16m in total so far. Baldwin’s campaign had raised $27m by the end of the most recent FEC reporting period.Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race, with Kamala Harris ascending to the top of the ballot, likely offered Baldwin a boost in the tight race.Baldwin, who did not join calls for Biden to drop out of the race, nonetheless refrained from campaigning with Biden when he made stops in Wisconsin. Hovde seized on Biden’s unpopularity and flailing campaign to cast Baldwin as a close Biden ally, even suggesting she had played a part in a Democratic party conspiracy to hide Biden’s age from voters.“Just how long has Tammy Baldwin been involved in the Biden coverup?” asked one ad that ran in July.The impact of the shakeup at the top of the Democratic party ticket in July also quickly led to a deluge of funding for Democrats, including in Wisconsin.“Every single thing that I can measure is going up,” Ben Wikler, chair of the Wisconsin Democratic party, told Wisconsin Public Radio on 19 August. “Fundraising has shot up, hundreds of thousands of dollars came in the 48 hours after that big decision, and the contributions have not stopped.” Rosa, the Baldwin campaign spokesperson, noted that after the vice-president announced her presidential bid, she had seen a “noticeable difference” in terms of enthusiasm and crowd sizes at Baldwin’s events.“But we’re always just really focused on our race,” said Rosa. “Of course, supporting up and down the ballot, Democrats getting across the finish line. Because Wisconsin is going to determine the White House – we’re going to determine the Senate majority.” More

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      The Democrats sound less lofty, more earthy – and it’s working | Margaret Sullivan

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      Back in 2016, as Michelle Obama was doing a campaign speech for Hillary Clinton, she urged a way to deal with bullies like Donald Trump.“When they go low, we go high,” the former first lady said.Later, once the catchphrase had caught on, she explained that “when someone is cruel or acts like a bully, you don’t stoop to their level”.Taking the high road sounded inspiring and possibly effective. Was it? Trump never stopped his horrid ways; but the Democrats, having lost to him in 2016, managed to defeat him in 2020 with Joe Biden, known for his empathy and decency.However you evaluate that, the Democrats feel like a different party these days. Their tone has changed from lofty to earthy.Consider the squawking chickens. When Trump waffled on whether he’d participate in the next presidential candidate debate, Kamala Harris’s campaign didn’t exactly go high. Instead, they posted barnyard sound effects and emoji over footage of Trump speaking and asked if he was getting scared.An Axios headline summarized the new tone: “Taunting Trump: Harris campaign’s sneer tactics.”The digital campaign team operating out of Wilmington, Delaware, “has pivoted from the stuffier, decorous Biden for President campaign to a saucier, more ruthless Harris for President campaign”.And don’t forget the couch jokes.Prominent Democrats, including Elizabeth Warren and Tim Walz, have made a few none-too-subtle wisecracks about an untrue rumor that Trump running mate JD Vance had an unusual relationship with some living-room furniture.The basis for this sordid tale has been debunked. The Associated Press not only fact-checked the claim, but then deleted the fact-check, which was headlined, No, JD Vance did not have sex with a couch.Nevertheless, uproarious cheers and laughter followed when Warren took her shot, speaking at the Democratic national convention about the need for an economy that benefits working people: “Trust Donald Trump and JD Vance to look out for your family? Shoot, I wouldn’t trust them to move my couch.”The conservative New York Post tut-tutted: “Elizabeth Warren makes crude couch joke in apparent reference to JD Vance.” Steven Cheung , a Trump spokesperson, complained to Axios: “Acting like whiny schoolchildren is not a political strategy, but it is a coping mechanism for the Kamala campaign who knows they have a weak candidate incapable of being authentic.”Somehow, charges of immaturity ring a little hollow from this crowd, led by a former president who specializes in dumb nicknames and cringey insults, from “Little Marco” Rubio to “Sleepy Joe” Biden.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump occasionally tries to claim the high ground but may need more practice. Last year he posted about the Florida governor, then a rival for the Republican nomination: “I will never call Ron DeSanctimonious ‘Meatball’ Ron, as the Fake News is insisting I will.”Besides, the Harris campaign’s irreverence isn’t really all that low. Pete Buttigieg, the transportation secretary, who should be appointed talker-in-chief, had the perfect response when challenged to defend Barack Obama’s suggestive hand-gesture joke (big? small?) about Trump’s obsession with crowd size.“We aren’t completely above the temptation to tweak our opponents,” Buttigieg admitted, while noting that the Harris campaign’s overall tone is positive and forward-looking, not mired in darkness and grievance.How effective is this counterpunching? After hesitating for days about the debate, Trump finally agreed to show up in Philadelphia next month.Did his capitulation have anything to do with suggestions that he was a coward? Any relationship to the chickens squawking as they crossed the low road?Maybe not. But for the Harris campaign, the barnyard noises do seem to be delivering the intended message.

      Margaret Sullivan is a Guardian US columnist writing on media, politics and culture More