Democrats

Even as gleeful Democrats spent days circulating video clips and memes of Kamala Harris ridiculing and riling Donald Trump in Tuesday’s presidential debate, the candidates themselves got back to the brutal grind of winning over the tiny proportion of voters who will decide November’s election in a clutch of swing states.Harris is on a “New Way Forward” tour of pivotal areas this weekend to exploit the momentum from her humiliation of Trump. On Friday, she was in Pennsylvania, perhaps the most crucial of crunch states, to push the themes she hit hard in the debate in painting the former president as a threat to democracy, women’s rights and the US’s international standing.Trump is in Arizona on Saturday and then headed to Michigan, both states he narrowly won in 2016 and then lost four years later, as he attempts to recover from what was widely recognised to be a damaging performance.The contest for the White House remains on a knife edge.Before the debate, Harris’s narrow lead in the polls was being chipped away by a Trump campaign trying to claw its way back from the shock of Joe Biden exiting the contest. After Trump’s poor debate showing, Harris appears to be edging up again. But neither campaign is taking anything for granted and both are returning to the daily fight.A CNN poll showed that 63% of debate watchers thought Harris won as Trump made outlandish claims about immigrants eating family pets and Democrats wanting to kill newborn babies. A focus group of undecided swing state voters put together by the Washington Post overwhelmingly said Harris came out on top.Even Fox News conceded the defeat. Its political analyst, Brit Hume, said Trump spent too much time airing old grievances that do nothing to win votes.“Let’s make no mistake, Trump had a bad night,” he said.Still, more cautious Democrats recognised that one bad night for the former president is far from a knockout blow and that their candidate remains particularly vulnerable on the economy, the top issue for large numbers of voters hit by surging inflation.The CNN poll showed that confidence in Harris to handle the economy fell by two points to 35% because of the debate after she failed to address inflation, or even acknowledge the hardship it has caused, while trust in Trump on the issue rose by two points to 55%.And while the latest YouGov poll gives Harris a nine-point advantage over Trump in favourability ratings, the presidential race is still neck-and-neck with each candidate claiming the support of 45% of the electorate.Charles Franklin, director of the respected Marquette Law School polling of voters in the swing state Wisconsin, where only about 20,000 votes separated Trump and his opponent in the last two presidential elections, said that while it was clear Harris won the debate, he doubted the outcome would shift the dial very much in those states where the election will be decided.“The question is, how much does it move the electorate in Wisconsin? Our electorate is pretty highly polarised even by national standards and so moving it much seems a little far-fetched,” he said.“The trouble is that voters always go to debates looking at it through their partisan glasses. If their candidate is clearly doing poorly, they come up with reasons why that is that still doesn’t lead them to reconsider their support for that candidate.”Swathes of Trump supporters lamented his performance but then shifted the blame to the debate moderators by accusing them of picking on the former president while giving Harris an easy ride.Polling says that about one in 20 voters in swing states have yet to make up their minds about who to vote for. But political analysts are sceptical that so many people are really undecided when Trump is such a known and divisive candidate.Nicholas Valentino, a professor of political science at the University of Michigan, said that even though Harris’s positions are not particularly well-known, few people can be in doubt about the differences between the contenders on key issues from abortion to immigration and healthcare.“There are very few undecided voters left in the electorate at this point in the campaign. When those undecided voters say we need more substance from either of the candidates, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they don’t know the differences or that they’re really waiting for some key piece of information that will tip the scales. That’s ambivalence. It’s not ignorance about where the candidates stand,” he said.Franklin said his polling showed that when uncommitted voters in Wisconsin are pressed about the reasons for their indecision, it often has less to do with policies or individual candidates than how they feel about politics in general.“The fact that they are negative towards politics, though, also sounds like many of Trump’s supporters, and that is one argument to think that Trump might have an advantage winning over those folks who are undecided but very negative about politics,” he said.Nonetheless, the YouGov poll shows Harris has the opportunity to make headway with voters who say they favour a candidate but are open to changing their minds. Four per cent of Trump supporters would consider voting for Harris while just 1% of Democrats are prepared to contemplate switching. But many of those Trump supporters see the economy as the most important issue. A majority of voters continue to view the former president’s tenure in the White House as a time of greater prosperity and have much more confidence in him to improve their finances.For all that, Harris’s combative approach to the debate was informed by the recognition in both campaigns that the key to victory almost certainly lies in turnout and generating enthusiasm among ambivalent supporters.In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by fewer than 45,000 votes out of nearly 6m cast. Four years later, Trump increased his vote in the state by more than 400,000 ballots. But he still lost Pennsylvania in 2020 because Biden was able to boost the Democratic turnout by 530,000 votes.That was a pattern repeated across swing states that delivered a Biden victory and that Harris must now almost certainly win. Probably no state is more pivotal than Pennsylvania.“It’s mostly now about the turnout game,” said Valentino. “It’s very likely that this election in Pennsylvania will be decided by fewer than 100,000 votes, just like it has been in the last two elections. There are many, many voters in Pennsylvania – white, less-than-college-educated men, women in the suburbs around the big cities – that each respective camp is going to be trying to turn out.”Polling shows that enthusiasm for the election among Democrats shot up after Biden dropped out of the race in July. Franklin saw it in Wisconsin.“Democrats are now running about nine points ahead of Republicans in enthusiasm, which certainly seems to point to another very high-turnout election,” he said.The YouGov poll shows that, nationally, 72% of Harris supporters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. Only 67% of Trump supporters say the same. But enthusiasm is significantly lower among younger people, whom the Democrats need. Only 78% of under-30s say they are likely to vote, compared with 95% of over-45s, who lean toward Trump.Harris continues to alienate some Democrats who outright refused to vote for Biden, calling him “Genocide Joe” over US support for Israel’s war in Gaza, which has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians. Harris sought to defuse the issue during the debate by saying that “far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed”, but that prompted critics to ask: how many innocent deaths is too many?The Democrats were particularly worried about the impact of Gaza policy on the significant Arab American vote in swing state Michigan, but Valentino thinks it has lost some of its sting, particularly among younger voters now focused on concerns about Trump returning to power.After the debate, Harris faced criticism for spending her time taunting Trump instead of detailing economic policy and a political vision. But Democratic strategists are only too aware that the surge in turnout for Biden in 2020 was less about support for the candidate than to get Trump out of the White House.Valentino said Harris’s approach may have served her well in that regard.“Her campaign strategy in this debate was clearly to allow Trump to display this kind of intense anger and goad him into making highly questionable arguments that they would cause moderates, and maybe even some moderate Republicans, to either become disillusioned with Trump and stay home from voting,” he said.“The other reason she was doing this is to mobilise her own base. Young people are worried about the future of democracy. I have data that shows the issue of protecting electoral institutions and elections is a very mobilising issue for Democrats, especially young Democrats. They know that they’re going to have to live and vote in this country for a lot longer than older folks and they are really worried about democratic institutions. That’s an issue that’s very potent for the Democratic party and for Harris, and she’s trying to make the most of it.” More

Kamala Harris embarked on a drive to exploit her strong debate performance on Thursday, as the Democratic presidential nominee’s campaign pledged to intensify efforts to persuade voters in battleground states deemed essential to winning the White House.Meanwhile, her opponent Donald Trump – whose debate performance has been criticized even by some of his supporters – said that he would refuse to debate Harris again. “There will be no third debate,” he said in an angrily worded post on his Truth Social social media platform.Basking in her debate win, the US vice-president travelled to the crucial swing state of North Carolina for rallies in Charlotte and Greensboro before heading north to Pennsylvania, another vital piece of the electoral battleground, where she is set to hold two more events on Friday.Harris is locked in a knife-edge contests with Donald Trump across seven swing states that have become focal points in the campaign to win November’s poll. When Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee, Trump had established a firm lead in many of these states but Harris has now clawed back the gap and re-energized her party’s chances.View image in fullscreenFor his part, Trump – who has insisted he won Tuesday’s debate with Harris in Philadelphia, despite widespread doubts among his supporters – headed to Arizona, another state where the candidates are neck-and-neck, and which was narrowly won by Biden in the 2020 presidential election.While most recent surveys have shown Harris with a narrow but consistent nationwide lead, November’s election result will almost certainly rest on which candidate prevails in the seven battleground states – with Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and Nevada also seen as vital.“Seeking to capitalize on her decisive debate victory Tuesday night against Donald Trump, Vice President Kamala Harris is hitting the campaign trail to extend her momentum and further crystallize for voters the choice in the election that her debate performance made clear,” stated a memo from the Harris campaign released on Thursday.The memo said campaign staff had spent Wednesday poring over the 105-minute debate in a search for key moments that could be used for television and digital adverts that would be targeted at swing states.It also pledged that Harris – who has been criticised for avoiding the media since becoming the Democrats’ nominee – would hold a series of interviews with local media in battleground states. That includes a scheduled meeting in Georgia next week with the National Association of Black Journalists, which hosted Trump in August in an encounter that turned into a public relations disaster for the Republican nominee.Harris won broad praise for her display at Tuesday night’s debate, in which she was viewed as successfully baiting and laying traps for Trump – who, in turn, veered repeatedly off-message with broadsides about crowd sizes at his campaign rallies and a baseless rant about immigrants.Some Trump supporters blamed his sub-par showing on the influence of Laura Loomer, a noted conspiracy theorist, who travelled with him to the debate and had promoted a false rumour about Haitian immigrants eating pet cats and dogs, which the ex-president then repeated in the midst of the encounter.View image in fullscreenAuthorities in Springfield, Ohio, where the practice was said to have been taking place, have dismissed the story – which appeared to have been spread on far-right internet forums and for which there is no evidence.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBut in a sign of its continuing fallout, police were reported to have evacuated Springfield city hall on Thursday following a bomb threat.Harris had demanded another debate with Trump and her campaign trolled him by posting the entire first event on X in the form of an “ad” – reflecting its confidence that she won the contest decisively. A snap CNN poll conducted immediately afterwards bore out that belief, with 63% of viewers seeing her as the victor.But Trump’s social media post – in which he ranted often in all caps about a variety of issues and claimed to have won the debate – appeared to scrap any hope of a rematch. “KAMALA SHOULD FOCUS ON WHAT SHE SHOULD HAVE DONE DURING THE LAST ALMOST FOUR YEAR PERIOD. THERE WILL BE NO THIRD DEBATE!,” he said referring to the first debate as his face off with Biden and his contest with Harris as the second debate.An estimated 67.1 million people watched the debate – nearly 16 million more than saw Trump’s contest with Biden in June.Harris, for her part, repeated her desire for another match up, despite Trump’s apparent firm refusal. At a rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, she said: “I believe we owe to the voters to have another debate, because this election and what is at stake could not be more important.”There was also fresh woe on Thursday for Trump when Alberto Gonzales, a former attorney general under George W Bush, became the latest Republican to endorse his opponent, invoking the Republican nominee’s incitement of the 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol when he was president.“As the United States approaches a critical election, I can’t sit quietly as Donald Trump – perhaps the most serious threat to the rule of law in a generation – eyes a return to the White House,” Gonzales said in a statement. “For that reason, though I’m a Republican, I’ve decided to support Kamala Harris for president.”He added: “Trump failed to do his duty and exercise his presidential power to protect members of Congress, law enforcement and the Capitol from the attacks [on January 6].” More

‘Trump lost, and it wasn’t close’[Donald] Trump lost, and it wasn’t close. [Kamala] Harris was a strong performer, but I think I’m still concerned as far as her Israel-Gaza stance. I think she punted, to be frank. That was a missed opportunity for Trump. She was able to make appeals to Americans on both sides of the political spectrum, while he chose to be the same old, same old.I thought there would be a limit to the unwavering loyalty some have for Trump. I used to think he used his base to leverage control over the rich and Republicans in power. In truth, he’s the fool of the right. Loyalty to country and loyalty to party have never been the same thing in my eyes. I don’t vote a straight ticket.I voted Democrat in 2020, and was too young to vote in 2016. If I thought the entire Democratic party was willing to harm those that didn’t vote for them in any way, I would abandon them. I trust Harris more than what I’ve seen from Trump. – Tobi, 24, public school teacher, Michigan ‘Kamala just didn’t throw knockout punches’It was like watching an exhibition boxing bout where Kamala just didn’t throw knockout punches. She drew him in time and time again, but ultimately failed to land. The setups were relatively impressive, but she failed to follow up with compelling or sufficiently detailed policies or plans. Doing so would have further demonstrated just how superior a candidate she truly is. She was on her toes, and had a once effervescent showman looking like an old, flat-footed has-been.I will vote for Kamala because you cannot vote for the opposition. That said, if I was undecided, I’d be extremely concerned that a candidate who is already in office cannot articulate plans to remedy very real socioeconomic problems that many believe she is partly responsible for creating. If they debate again and Trump could land that message for more than just his closing remarks, I think we could see some flashes of what made him compelling to undecided or protest voters. – Sam Smith, works in tech, Lake Tahoe, Nevada‘It was a good watch, which was a relief after the last debate’View image in fullscreenIt was a good watch, which was a relief after the last debate which made me want to assume the fetal position until November. I thought Harris did well to bait Trump on his non-answers and get him off message – it’s no surprise Trump was mostly bluster and not a lot of substance.I do feel like she was at least able to give some substantive answers around her plan for improving the economy, her plan for making life easier for people like me, who are about to be first-time homeowners, about to have kids, middle-class people who are working. I just wish Harris went into more specifics about her intended approach to issues like immigration and Israel-Palestine, which would have made a great contrast to Trump’s vague and angry rhetoric.I voted for [Joe] Biden in the last election, and I intend on voting for Harris this election. I’ve been pretty solid in that camp even though I’m so frustrated with a two-party system. It astonishes me that a vote for a Black and Asian woman right now represents something closer to maintaining the status quo, while a vote for an older white man is something that feels really radical and dangerous. – Paul B, 32, content strategist, Pennsylvania‘Trump was strong but evaded questions’Trump was strong but evaded questions and his answers seemed to help him win an election more than governing. Harris seemed more truthful but did not differentiate herself more from Biden’s wins or failures.She said she is not Biden or Trump but then did not clearly elucidate how she can move Gaza and Ukraine wars to closure. I am an independent and first-time voter. I liked the economy under Trump but am now leaning towards Harris.
– HS, works in consulting, North Carolina‘Harris showed she can see what America needs at this moment in time’I thought Harris definitely won the debate. She was clear, precise and showed she was capable and willing to serve the people of the United States. My mind was made up before but Harris showed she can see what America needs at this moment in time. My favorite moment was when she told Trump that Putin would eat him for lunch. That is no lie!As a Republican, I’m truly embarrassed by Trump. He’s not what Republicans are about – I’m conservative because I believe people need to earn what they get. There are people who need help, but if you’re capable you should work. The Republican party has changed and I’m not sure I want to change with them. – Ted Kemm, retired industrial engineer, Pennsylvania‘The handshake – a much-needed effort to return to civil politics’I thought it was intense. It drew a clear contrast between the two candidates. Putting aside policy and partisanship, one candidate was focused on attacking his opponent and the other candidate was talking to the American people, making a strong effort (whether you believe her or not) that she can be a president for all Americans. I think it beautifully juxtaposed the vitriolic rhetoric of how politics has become lately (on the right) with a return to civility, compassion and unity (on the left).My favorite moment was the handshake. Ignoring the “power dynamics” part of it, I thought it was a much-needed effort to return to older, civil politics where everyone can at the very least shake each other’s hands. I think the handshake we saw at the 9/11 memorial might not have happened if she had not shook his hand at the debate. It’s a powerful, unifying gesture that certainly needs to be normalized again.My one hope for this debate was that we would see how Harris handles the pressure of debating someone like Trump on a national stage. She overall showed strength and arrested my concerns. In 2016 I voted for Trump (first election), in 2020 I voted for Biden and in 2024 I will proudly vote for Harris. – Josh, 27, engineer, North Carolinaskip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion‘I was impressed by how well prepared Harris was’I thought this debate highlighted the contrast between the candidates. On one side, there was a man we all know, Trump, who used the same fearmongering rhetoric and blatant lies to admonish our country for his personal game. The line about immigrants eating pets is a perfect example of how he’s willing to embrace misinformation as long as it suits him. He blamed every issue in our country on migrants.My favorite moment was when Kamala pointed out that Trump never talks about “you”, which is true. He doesn’t talk about wanting things to be better for us, and only talks about making the country great in his image. I also loved how Kamala kept looking at him directly, then at the camera when she was addressing us. Trump couldn’t even look at her! She showed us how easy it is to upset him, and how easy it would be for world leaders to manipulate him with flattery or criticism.I was leaning towards Kamala prior to the debate, as I would never vote for Trump. I was impressed by her strength and how well prepared she was. It helped me feel more confident about voting for her. My first vote went for [John] McCain. In 2016, I was denied voting for Bernie Sanders in the primary due to my libertarian voter registration, and I voted for Gary Johnson in the election. I voted for Biden in 2020, and plan to vote for Harris-Walz this year. – Amber, 35, stay-at-home mom and student, Arizona‘I did not feel Harris did well in the debate’Contrary to what I read in all the media, I did not feel Harris did that well in the debate. She kept belittling Trump, whom I don’t particularly like, but I found it ironic that she did this and made calls for all of us to find unity and move on together. I did not find her believable, except on the topic of abortion, in which I think she presented her case convincingly, and also on healthcare. She seemed extremely reactive, which is not a quality I look for in a leader.Trump, on the other hand, did not stare at her during the exchanges and just said what was on his mind. After this debate, I’m not even sure if I will vote for her. I will definitely not vote for Trump. I have voted Democratic all my life, I have also worked on the Obama campaign. I’m 67 years old and I’m thinking this might be the first time that I will not vote, and that maybe I won’t vote again. Politicians in this country have become so divisive.
– Alexander Stafford, retired teacher, Georgia‘Trump saying he has concepts of a plan for healthcare gave me a hearty chuckle’I think it was a near best-case scenario for the Harris campaign; while I wish there were a couple of areas where she would have fleshed out her policy points, and better explained some of the areas where her position has demonstrably changed, I think a key goal was to provide pushback on the falsehoods that were expressed in the first debate as well as to remind voters of who Trump really is and the chaos of his first term.My favorite moment was when Trump was pressed for his plans to improve healthcare in the US with his response being that after eight years he has “concepts of a plan” – that gave me a hearty chuckle. I voted for Biden in 2020 and was planning on voting for whoever the Democratic candidate was, but the debate made me much more confident in casting that vote specifically for Harris. – James, 31, works in healthcare, Wisconsin‘Harris signed, sealed and delivered’View image in fullscreenIt was tough to watch in the sense that there was always this sense of: Is it going to go awry? How is she going to be able to handle that man with his anger and his insults? I was proud of how she handled it.I am certainly voting for Vice-President Harris. She was poised, intelligent and most importantly human. She wasn’t a robot. She had little stumbles or misspoke at times; however she came across as genuine, and was prepared but not in a stilted way.I hope the debate managed to persuade undecided voters. I’m giving my fellow Americans a lot of credit here, but I’m hoping that they saw that not only is he a loose, dangerous cannon that shouldn’t be president, but that it also showed that Harris has got the seriousness, the maturity, the intelligence and experience to do this.Overall he sunk his boat and she really raised hers, although she was already doing wonderfully. But I think she signed, sealed and delivered it.– Suzanne Baker, 65, retired anthropology professor, Michigan More