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    Democrats fail to persuade swaths of rural America's heartlands

    America’s rural heartland stuck firmly with Donald Trump on Tuesday, dashing Joe Biden’s hope of a decisive victory that would have allowed him to claim he had reunited the country, as well as undercutting Democratic expectations of winning the US Senate.
    Results across the midwest showed the US still firmly divided as Trump again won a solid victory in Iowa, a state that twice voted for Barack Obama, and the Republicans held on to crucial Senate seats targeted by the Democrats.
    Iowa’s Republican governor, Kim Reynolds, a close Trump ally, proclaimed that the Democrats were now history in her state as the president’s base turned out in force.
    “We have proven without a doubt that Iowa is a red state,” she told a rowdy victory rally in Des Moines where few Republicans wore masks.
    Trump was ahead in Iowa by more than seven points with over 90% of the vote counted, a victory just two points short of his 2016 win.
    In Iowa and Missouri, Trump’s support in rural counties generally held up or strengthened. In some states that delivered him victory. In others, such as Wisconsin, Biden triumphed after a surge of urban votes.
    But the president’s solid performance in rural America could cost the Democrats control of the Senate after what the party regarded as its best shot at two midwestern seats in Iowa and Kansas flopped.
    Iowa’s Republican senator, Joni Ernst, beat her Democratic rival, Theresa Greenfield, by more than six points in a race that opinion polls for many months said would be closer. Ernst won the seat from a Democrat in 2014.
    Results showed that the president dominated in rural counties that he took from the Democrats four years ago. Opinion polls said that in recent weeks voters’ primary concern shifted from coronavirus to the economy which helped swing independent voters the president’s way to supplement his core support.
    “The economy was doing well before coronavirus. That was a big thing for me, said Elysha Graves as she clutched her toddler after voting for Trump in Urbandale, Iowa.
    “They tried to blame him for the pandemic. I don’t know how anybody else would have handled it. It’s a hard situation. He just seems real. He’s not a politician. He’s more relatable. I trust him more than I trust Biden.”
    Left: Elysha Graves and her son Parker Peters of Urbandale Iowa pose for a photo after Graves cast her vote on election day in Urbandale, Iowa. Right: A sign informs residents of a voting location on election day in Urbandale, Iowa on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Photographs by KC McGinnis/The Guardian
    Democrats disappointed
    Iowa is not a crucial state for Biden but his failure to significantly reduce the size of Trump’s 2016 victory there is evidence that the Democrats failed to persuade swaths of rural America that the party had much to offer them or was even paying attention to their communities and concerns.
    Biden was counting on the president defeating himself with his style of governing and handling of coronavirus as the economy collapsed. But large numbers of midwestern voters were prepared to forgive Trump his hostile tweeting and other sins because, in a widely heard refrain, “he is not a regular politician”, a quality they regard as central to their support of him.
    They also did not blame Trump for the economic downturn, saying it would have happened no matter who was in the White House. While the president’s handling of coronavirus was widely scorned in other places, there is a popular view in the rural midwest that Trump got it right when he opposed lockdowns as too economically damaging. More

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    'Truly remarkable': Arizona activists celebrate as conservative stalwart shifts blue

    Ten years ago in Arizona, a night like 3 November 2020 would have seemed impossible.
    Back then, the conservative stalwart of the south-west was not just a state with strong Republican leadership on almost every level – it was a state whose staunch anti-immigration stance would go on to shape policy in the party for years to come, and would gain a reputation as the birthplace of Trumpism.
    A Republican super-majority state legislature had passed SB1070, a law requiring local law enforcement to ask for proof of legal immigration status from anyone deemed suspicious. Hardline anti-immigration sheriff Joe Arpaio – the Donald Trump of Maricopa county before Donald Trump became the Donald Trump he is today – was not just in power, he seemed near untouchable.
    “We would host know-your-rights sessions, with backyards full of over a hundred people because there was so much fear,” said Alejandra Gomez, co-executive director of advocacy group Living United for Change in Arizona (Lucha). “There were literally checkpoints that we would have to go monitor that Sheriff Arpaio put in common intersections. There were phone trees that the community had to give each other heads up of when Arpaio and his posse were going to be there.”
    Gomez smiled. “We don’t have that any more. And that’s because of the resistance of Arizona and the strategic calculations that this community has made.”
    On Tuesday, Arizona began to shift blue. While a number of ballots remained to be counted, the Associated Press called the race for Joe Biden, who was leading by 5 percentage points, saying that the remaining ballots would not be enough for Trump to close the gap to victory in Arizona. With 99% of precincts reporting, Democratic candidate Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally with 52.63% of the vote in the race for John McCain’s former senate seat. Alongside Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, who won her US Senate seat in 2018, this marks the first time Arizona would have two sitting Democrats in the US chamber in a lifetime. The state legislature is also expected to flip to a Democratic majority in both chambers for the first time since 1966, though with narrower margins in some races than previously hoped.

    “In 10 years, we went from a super-majority Republican state, and now, in 2020, we’re going to flip the legislature to a majority blue, our electoral votes will be a deciding factor in electing Joe Biden, and we are going to have not one, but two United State senate seats going out to Washington DC to represent our voices,” said Democratic state representative Athena Salman, who won her re-election bid Tuesday.
    “It is truly remarkable and so exciting to be living in this state right now.”
    But Tuesday was no fluke. It was the culmination of more than 10 years of tireless boots-on-the-ground organizing, campaigning, marching, protesting and door-knocking.
    It was never about politics for these organizers and activists. It was never about Republican or Democrat, red state or blue state, conservative or liberal.
    “This was not a state where you got involved in politics because you wanted to do work in politics,” said Tomas Robles, co-executive director of Lucha. “For us, it wasn’t about attaching ourselves to a political party. In 2010, both political parties deserted us. There were Democrats who did not vote against SB1070, folks who did not even bother showing up.”
    For them, it was a fight for their lives. It was a fight to keep families together, to prevent the deportation of loved ones, the criminalization of an entire race.
    “The 10 years of this, it’s a sign that Arizona is moving in the direction that we envisioned since 2010,” Robles said. “You have eight-year-olds who experienced the heartbreak of watching their families stand there in fear because of SB1070. They’re now 18-year-old voters. You have a ton of people that have grown up experiencing what it is to organize and what it is to build collective political power in a state that used to have none of it.”
    In the pandemic, 90% of the members of Unite Here Local 11, a union representing predominantly Latinx and immigrant hospitality workers in southern California and Arizona, lost their jobs. So instead, they took to the streets, knocking on doors to campaign for Biden and Kelly, sometimes in the sweltering 120-degree Fahrenheit Arizona heat.
    In July, union organizers met with epidemiologists specifically to find ways for their members and volunteers to safely continue knocking on doors. Since then, they estimated that they’ve knocked on 800,000 doors and had at least 250,000 conversations.
    “People know,” said Unite Here Local 11 co-president Susan Minato. “They’re not stupid. They know there are a lot of negative things going on and our country is way worse than it was before Trump started. That’s why people are here. There are children today, 550 of them, who are in cages. No one even knows who they are, who their parents are. They were taken from their parents arms. If we live in a country where that can happen, then anything can happen.
    “If people know that in their gut, then they’re here in the heat, they’re here, separated from their own children and loved ones temporarily, they’re here knocking on the doors of strangers in a pandemic, and they’re loving it because they know this is how we save our country.”
    Local organizers and activists have much to celebrate after Tuesday. Beyond the wins, beyond turning Arizona blue, the state saw historic youth and Latinx voter turnout, they said.

    Vivian Ho
    (@VivianHo)
    “Tonight, we claim victory. We claim victory because we were told that Latinos don’t show up. And we showed up.” @LUCHA_AZ pic.twitter.com/VMpnhw5vym

    November 4, 2020

    But they’re also already looking ahead. Minato noted that they have just two years to go before the governor’s race. And Robles pointed out that winning the election is just half the battle.
    “This is a marker in a very long marathon,” Robles said. “We’re going to have to prepare our members and prepare our leaders and also prepare our elected officials that our voters put in those seats. Election Day is just when you get the job. The job has only just begun. We’re ready and prepared to deal with whoever is in charge with crafting policy that will affect our families.” More

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    Record number of Native American women elected to Congress

    The 117th Congress will have a record number of Native American women after voters elected three to the House of Representatives.Democrats Deb Haaland, a Laguna Pueblo member representing New Mexico, and Sharice Davids, a Ho-Chunk Nation member representing Kansas, both retained their seats after becoming the first Native American women elected to Congress, in 2018.They are joined by Yvette Herrell, who is Cherokee. Herrell, a Republican, beat the Democratic incumbent Xochitl Torres Small for her New Mexico congressional seat.The wins for Herrell and Haaland mean that New Mexico will be the first state to have two indigenous women as congressional delegates. The state also became the first to elect women of color as all three of its delegates in the US House of Representatives.According to a Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) report, 18 indigenous women were running for congressional seats this year – a record in a single year. Native American women made up 2.6% of all women running for Congress this year, the highest percentage since CAWP started collecting data in 2004.There have been four Native Americans in the US Senate and a handful of indigenous US representatives. All were men until Haaland and Davids were elected in 2018.In Kansas, Stephanie Byers, who is Chickasaw and a retired teacher, became the state’s first transgender lawmaker when she won her race for a seat in its house of representatives.“We’ve made history here,” Byers said on Tuesday. “We’ve done something in Kansas most people thought would never happen, and we did it with really no pushback, by just focusing on the issues.”Also in Kansas, Christina Haswood, a Navajo Nation member, became the youngest person in the state legislature at 26. A third member of the Kansas house , Ponka-We Victors, a Tohono O’odham and Ponca member, won her re-election campaign.The US House of Representatives will have its highest number of indigenous representatives after Tuesday’s election, according to the independent Native American newspaper Indian Country Today.Six candidates, including Haaland, Davids and Herrell, won their elections. Two Oklahoma representatives, Tom Cole, who is Chickasaw, and Markwayne Mullin, who is Cherokee, won their re-elections, and Kaiali’i “Kai” Kahele, who is Native Hawaiian, won an open seat for Hawaii. There were previously four indigenous members of Congress, all in the House of Representatives. More

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    Democracy in Trumpland: I won because I say so | Ed Pilkington

    It was the grand, carefully choreographed victory speech that Donald Trump never got to make in 2016. Hail to the Chief was playing in the background as the president took to the stage around 2am, a phalanx of Stars and Stripes at his back and in front of him a maskless crowd of progeny and devotees screaming “We love you!”
    In 2016 Trump was so stunned by his own unexpected triumph that he looked quite taken aback. His victory speech was written in such a hurry it contained profuse praise for Hillary Clinton, the woman who had been subjected to chants of “lock her up”.
    Having stumbled four years ago, Trump did it on Wednesday morning his way, amid the grandeur of the East Room of the White House. “Frankly, we did win this election,” he said, the room erupting in a frenzy of cheers.
    It was a spectacle that spoke volumes about the man, and about the nation at this singularly damaged and dangerous moment in its 244-year history. An incumbent president declares victory even though he hasn’t won, then claims that fraud is being committed on the American public in the middle of an election that has seen the largest turnout of any presidential race in 120 years.
    Democracy in Trumpland.
    As the president was playing out his little victory fantasy, Democrats were going through their own version of hell. If the story of the night for Trump was about him pretending to have won just the way he liked it, for Joe Biden and his Democratic cohorts it was about dutifully following the rule book just the way they hate it.
    For them, too, the ghosts of 2016 loomed large. It was around 10.30pm on election night 2020 that the jitters began to start with early results in from Florida that sent an all-too familiar chill across the nation.
    Here we go again. Buckle up, you’re in for a rough ride. More

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    US election 2020: Biden sees narrow lead over Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin as results awaited – live updates

    Key events

    Show

    10.18am EST10:18
    Democrats: ‘Results indicate we are on a clear path to victory this afternoon’

    9.16am EST09:16
    AP running vote tally shows Biden holds a narrow lead in Michigan for first time

    8.08am EST08:08
    Former Trump adviser John Bolton calls president’s election comments ‘a disgrace’

    7.54am EST07:54
    Paths to victory remain for both Biden and Trump – but Biden has more

    Live feed

    Show

    10.18am EST10:18

    Democrats: ‘Results indicate we are on a clear path to victory this afternoon’

    In a live address Joe Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon has said Joe Biden is on course to become the next president of the US. She said:

    We believe we are in a clear path to victory by this afternoon, we expect that the vice president will have leads in states that put him over 270 electoral votes today. The vice president will garner more votes than any presidential candidate in history, and we’re still counting. He has won over 50% of the popular vote. We are on track to win in Michigan by more than Donald Trump did in 2016. To win in Wisconsin by more than Trump did in 2016. To win in Pennsylvania by more than Trump did in 2016. And we flipped one of his states, Arizona.

    10.14am EST10:14

    The Democratic party are about to broadcast what they are calling a ‘Election protection briefing’. Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon and former Counsel to president Barack Obama Bob Bauer will be talking shortly.

    Joe Biden
    (@JoeBiden)
    We won’t rest until everyone’s vote is counted. Tune in as my campaign manager @jomalleydillon and campaign adviser Bob Bauer give an update on where the race stands. https://t.co/Rwz4iR25B3

    November 4, 2020

    10.11am EST10:11

    Here’s the state of play – excuse the pun – in the states that have not yet been declared for one candidate or the other. We are expecting results from at least Wisconsin and Michigan later today. The others may take a little longer. More

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    Faith v fraud: Biden and Trump react during the US election count – video

    With the US presidential election count still too  close to call, Joe Biden said he was optimistic about the outcome and that it the race was not over until every vote had been counted. Meanwhile, Donald Trump falsely claimed he had already won and spoke of a fraud against the American public
    Biden addresses supporters in Delaware: ‘We’re on track to win this election’  More

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    Mark Kelly on Senate win in Arizona: 'Tonight is about getting to work' – video

    Mark Kelly, the Democrat and former astronaut, focused on bipartisanship in a speech shortly before he was declared the winner of the Senate race in Arizona. ‘I’m confident that when all the votes are counted, we’re going to be successful in this mission,’ Kelly told supporters. ‘The work starts now.’
    The retired US navy captain, who ran his campaign by playing up his outsider status in politics, said: ‘Our state doesn’t need a Democrat senator or a Republican senator. We need an Arizona senator. There is nothing we can’t achieve if we work together’
    Results come in after polls close – as it happened More

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    OK, America, so what the hell happens now? | Marina Hyde

    With the future and democratic reputation of the American republic hanging in the balance, this is not an occasion for bombast. Rather it is time to reach humbly in the darkness, seeking only to summon such measured words as convey the intense dignity of this moment. In short, I think we all feel the hand of history on our pussies.Donald Trump, America’s howling id, has not lost this election. Then again, Joe Biden has not won it. Shortly before 6am UK time, Biden addressed a rally – never a better time for one, mate – and told the Delaware crowd he was “optimistic”. In split-screen Trump addressed his Twitter retinue, and told them of “a big WIN”, adding “they are trying to STEAL the election … votes cannot be cast after the Poles are closed.” Expect him to invade Pole-land in the coming days.Still, whatever happens now, no one can argue that a result this close was a repudiation of his way of doing business, so anyone expecting the gibberingly loyal Republican party to tack away from its current psychiatric space for the next couple of decades ought probably to get used to disappointment.Shortly after 7am UK time, Trump addressed the nation with quasi-dictatorial fanfare, falsely claiming victory as well as electoral fraud, and seeking to disenfranchise voters in undeclared states. This was at least predicted. There have long been signs that Trump would not be able to handle even potentially unfavourable election results. After all, just look how he handled male pattern baldness. Contrary to what a lot of people said over the past four years, Trump did eventually manage to build something described as an “unscalable” fence. Unfortunately, he only did it this week, and it now surrounds the White House.Militia fears, a barricaded presidential compound, open calls to disenfranchise voters – it’s a mood very much borrowed from what Trump would call “shithole countries”. As the weeks unfold, please don’t rule out Donald’s two large adult sons – Uday and Schmuday – downing a Black Hawk within the White House autonomous zone. Already, expectations have been so profoundly commuted that if gun-toting convoys of Klansmen aren’t firing celebratory rounds into the sky from vehicle convoys by the time this article is published, it’ll be regarded as a positive.So what in the name of terminal insanity does happen now? I’m encouraged to learn that pathways from here include everything from victory for the orange dopamine-pusher to the most illegitimate or disputed victory in history, with Biden’s likely best-case scenario a narrow win with a Republican senate which would allow him to accomplish even less than he achieved during this campaign. Either way, lockdowns around the globe are sure to be enlivened by rolling coverage of the fallout, possibly in the country’s sarcastically admired court system. Were US lawyers part of the original breakout from Pandora’s box? If not, expect swarms of them to breach its defences in the coming days.Should Biden edge a victory, thanks to the way the self-styled greatest democracy in the world works, we will have months of grimly incendiary Trump claims that it was stolen. Or to put it in terms the rest of the planet would understand: this is like winning the World Cup in November, then having the losing captain use it as a toilet for three months before finally handing the brimming trophy over to you in late January.Elsewhere, what a great night for pollsters and their polls, which seem to have been about as accurate as any Trump statements. Bazillions of dollars have been spent on polling this cycle. Definitely the business to get into when journalism – which did about as badly – goes tits-up.According to the exit poll Trump outperformed his 2016 results with every race and gender – except for white men. In counties with high Covid death rates, Trump performed better this year than he did in 2016. I suppose we have to believe the arc of history bends towards justice, but it certainly takes some incredible hairpin detours.Other assorted lowlights thus far include Lindsey Graham winning again, while some QAnon gorgon is now an actual Georgia congresswoman. The 25-year-old Republican Madison Cawthorn, whose bucket list included a visit to Hitler’s holiday home, is also going to Congress, and announced his victory just as Abraham Lincoln once did – in a tweet reading: “Cry more, lib”. Louisiana voters approved an amendment declaring abortion was not protected by the state’s constitution.Still, let no one suggest a democracy contested by two men in their mid- to late-70s is in some ways beginning to look a little necrotic. Yes, it would have been nice to have at least one candidate who no one had accused of sexual assault – but you had to be deeply comforted that one of the candidates had been accused of literally dozens more sexual assaults than the other one.Of course, the 2020 US presidential election situation is still very much developing, and by the time you read this, there could be a lot of hostages to fortune. Or even just hostages. Rule nothing out. Nothing, perhaps, except moral optimism. People used to say that irony died when Henry Kissinger won the Nobel peace prize – but the real victim was actually the Nobel peace prize. It’s hard not to think something of an order of magnitude is now true of the US presidency, which for ever ever this time will be seen as a job that a man of the character of Donald Trump was able to get. Maybe even twice – or as near as dammit.• Marina Hyde is a Guardian columnist More