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      US election: when is the Democratic convention and why does it matter?

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      Kamala Harris is set to appear in Chicago next week to formally accept the nomination for president of the Democratic party, less than two months after Joe Biden dropped out of the race. She will appear alongside her running mate, Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, at the party’s national convention.Typically a party formally nominates their candidate at the convention – as the Republicans did for Donald Trump in July – however, Democrats changed the rules to put in place a virtual roll call. Harris and Walz were officially nominated earlier in August.Here’s what else to know about next week’s Democratic convention.Where and when is the Democratic national convention?The Democratic national convention will be held in Chicago from 19 to 22 August.Chicago previously played host to the convention in 1996, when Bill Clinton was nominated for re-election, and 1968 when Hubert Humphrey was nominated.Two venues in Chicago will host the convention: the United Center arena for evening programming, and McCormick Place convention center for daytime sessions.Who is speaking at the convention?Harris and Walz will both speak at the convention, and Biden is also expected to give an address. The full lineup of speakers has not yet been released (Republicans only released the names of confirmed speakers the day of their July convention).However, several big names have been reported:

      Monday, 19 August: Biden will speak on the opening night, along with former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.

      Tuesday, 20 August: Former president Barack Obama will give an address on the second night.

      Wednesday, 21 August: Former president Bill Clinton will join Walz on the convention’s third night.

      Thursday, 22 August: Harris will close out the fourth night of the convention.
      In 2020, the virtual convention included speeches from Barack and Michelle Obama, Bill and Hillary Clinton, Jill Biden and a host of other elected officials.How can I watch the convention?The party will livestream the convention on its Democratic national convention website and on TikTok, Instagram and YouTube.The Guardian has a team of reporters in Chicago and will be covering the convention in depth, including live blogs each night.Major news networks are likely to carry prime-time programming. PBS will have live coverage beginning at 8pm each night.What happens at the Democratic convention?The primary functions of the convention is to formally nominate the party’s candidate, adopt the party’s platform, unify the party and boost enthusiasm for the ticket.The convention usually includes a roll call to formally nominate their candidate. However, the rule-making group for the Democratic National Committee established procedures for candidates to contest the primary nomination ahead of the convention.Harris was confirmed as the party’s nominee after a virtual roll call vote earlier in August – the first time Democrats have used such a process. Harris and Walz will formally accept the nomination at the convention.The rest of the week will focus on the party’s platform and speeches from notable figures. The party says that more than 5,000 delegates and alternates will be at the convention, with 50,000 total visitors in Chicago for the convention (which includes delegates and the media).Who else is speaking?The party has signaled its plans to foreground up-and-coming Democrats in its programming. Likely speakers include the Michigan governor, Gretchen Whitmer, Maryland governor, Wes Moore, and Illinois governor, JB Pritzker, among others.Meanwhile, many political influencers have been credentialed, including the socialist podcast host Daniel Denvir.Will there be protests?Yes. Organizers expect tens of thousands of people to protest outside the Democratic national convention to pressure the party to stop the war in Gaza. Inside the convention, uncommitted delegates plan to push anti-war demands in hopes of winning more allies to the cause and influencing the party platform.Chicago is home to the country’s largest Palestinian population – with Bridgeview, Illinois, known as Little Palestine. More than 200 groups have joined together for the March on the DNC, with protests planned for the opening and closing nights of the convention.Protests are not unique to the Democratic convention; during the Republican convention in July, protesters led a demonstration against Trump and his party in downtown Milwaukee.What’s ahead on the US election calendar?The next presidential debate is scheduled for 10 September, with both Harris and Trump confirmed.A debate between JD Vance and Walz has been confirmed for 1 October. More

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      The evolution of Kamala Harris: from activist in pigtails to presidential candidate

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      View image in fullscreenIt was the first week of July. News of the presidential election had been mired, for eight days, in alarming assessments of Joe Biden and that shambolic debate. The president had started but not finished sentences, slurred words and at points stood with his mouth slightly agape while his opponent, Donald Trump, ignored questions and lied without fact-check.Now, on 6 July, inside New Orleans’s convention center, the 30th annual Essence Festival of Culture was under way. Kamala Harris was set to speak, one of the vice-president’s biggest in-person events since Biden’s performance had seemingly upended the race. The attendees – mostly Black women, drawn to this long-running music-festival-meets-women’s-expo – were waiting to see Harris. Some were chattering about the possibilities: did her future lie at the top of the Democratic party’s ticket? What could, or should, happen next? The press corps now trailing Harris had swelled in size, and began to scribble notes and scramble for a look as Harris walked across the stage as the defiant second chorus of Beyoncé’s Freedom boomed. A rousing cheer came from the standing-room-only crowd in the cavernous, 600-seat room.“Who is Kamala Harris?” Caroline Wanga, the CEO and president of Essence Ventures asked, as she began a “Chief to Chief” conversation, the live version of an interview published each month in Essence, the Black women’s magazine. The conversations are supposed to illuminate what makes the subjects human, their struggles and lessons learned, the moments of victory and defeat and what distinguishes Black women who lead.“The vice-president of the United States,” Harris responded, setting off another extended cheer from the crowd. “I am a wife. We have children. I am a god-mommy. I am an auntie. I am a best friend. I am a good cook … and you know, I am a fighter for people. I am prepared to fight.”Until late July, Harris had been the running mate of the oldest man to seek the presidency. Today, Harris, the nation’s first Black and south Asian and female vice-president, who was once characterized as a public official struggling to find her footing, is a presidential candidate with a narrow lead. When the big change happened – not by death but by swelling doubt – Harris appeared to have surprised all but those who have long known her.People who know Harris well say what the US is witnessing is the confidence, charisma and net effect of practical experience at multiple levels of government, a woman raised to work hard, to operate with compassion and to push past the comfortable toward what is necessary and right. That’s always been there, but it was, perhaps, not always grasped by the public or press. Harris, friends and mentors say, was subjected to constant and unusual forms of scrutiny and given a series of particularly complex, intractable tasks that no one could wrap in a single term as vice-president.What is indisputable is that Harris is a woman running for the nation’s highest office at a moment when democracy is at stake. Her candidacy is historic, and the next few weeks leading up to the presidential election will alter the course of American politics for better or worse.‘She was at marches in a stroller’“She’s always been a go-getter,” said Areva Martin, a CNN legal analyst and lawyer who first met Harris in the late 1980s. Martin, then a student at the University of Chicago, was visiting her brother, a student at Howard University in Washington DC, where Harris was also enrolled, when the two first connected. The women hit it off and have remained friends. “She’s always had a lot of confidence and a concept that anything that wasn’t right, that wasn’t working, was hers to try and change,” Martin said. “If you hear her talking about growing up with her parents, who were very active in the civil rights movement, it’s in her DNA. She was at marches in a stroller.”Born in October 1964, Harris is the daughter of a Jamaican father and an Indian mother who met as graduate students at the University of California, Berkeley. The Harrises were committed civil rights activists during a time of radical political thought and activity and also, respectively, an economist and a breast cancer researcher. Harris was a toddler when Donald Harris’s academic career forced the family to decamp to Illinois, where Harris’s younger sister, Maya, was born. When Harris’s parents split up in the early 1970s, Harris’s mother, Shyamala Gopalan, moved Kamala and Maya back to Berkeley. The girls were raised with direct engagement with two cultures and a firm grounding in the realities of race in the United States. There were trips to an area Hindu temple, and lots of south Indian food which, with a few spice changes, Gopalan would often make into soul food.At home, there were ample amounts of gospel music, which Gopalan, a singer, loved. The Harris girls also went with a neighbor to a Black church and sang in the children’s choir. During summers with their dad, there was lots of jazz. Gopalan, for her part, counted writers and activists among her closest friends. “My mother understood very well that she was raising two Black daughters,” Harris wrote in her 2019 book, The Truths We Hold. “She knew that her adopted homeland would see Maya and me as Black girls and she was determined to make sure that we would grow into confident, proud Black women.” (Harris’s staff declined to make Harris available for this story.)View image in fullscreenGopalan and the girls lived in a Black neighborhood, and the children were bussed along with other Black students to a white school in another part of town as part of the school district’s integration plan. Harris was a civil rights foot soldier in pigtails. Later, at Howard University – widely considered the nation’s premier institution of all the historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) – Harris encountered so many Black people with different interests, class backgrounds, experiences and cultures that, she wrote in her book, she felt like she was in heaven. She was one of at least two Kamalas on campus.Harris, then fond of popped collars and her short natural curls, studied political science and economics. Yearbooks show she was active in the California Student Association and the debate team and chaired the economics society. It was at Howard where she ran for her first office: freshman class representative. She had a summer gig at McDonald’s, as well as internships with a US senator and at the Federal Trade Commission. At the National Archives, where the original Declaration of Independence, constitution and Bill of Rights as well as every administration’s papers are held, the country’s future first female vice-president was on research. And while working as a tour guide at the US Bureau of Engraving and Printing, Harris got her first official code name: “TG-10” for “tour guide No 10”.Then there was Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority Inc, one of the nine Black sororities and fraternities, which Harris joined while she was an undergraduate. The groups were founded during the early 20th century so that a select group of college-educated Black Americans might have networks through which they could access jobs, loans, business deals, healthcare and even a safe place to stay. The Divine Nine, as the collective is called, were countervailing forces in a segregated country where the social order planted white Americans at the top and was often enforced by violence.Being an AKA has been a way for Harris to embrace self-affirming merriment and matters of global significance. “On Fridays, my friends and I would dress up in our best clothes and peacock around the Yard,” she wrote in her book. “On weekends, we went down to the National Mall to protest apartheid in South Africa.”“She’s just always been a force,” said Inez Brown, who pledged AKA with Harris in the spring of 1986. “I always said, Kamala is going to be a supreme court justice, because once I knew she was headed for law school, I was like she is going to do something really different. That was just her energy.”When Maya gave birth to a daughter at 17, Harris went back home to California for law school, opting for the state university system’s oldest law school, then known as the University of California, Hastings College of the Law (or UC Hastings, now UC Law San Francisco). When Harris was a student there, she and her mother helped to care for her niece, so that Maya could graduate from the University of California, Berkeley and then Stanford Law School on time.In law school, Harris led the Black Law Students Association and was among an early, small group of Black students who spoke of wanting to become prosecutors, said Shauna Marshall, a semi-retired professor at the law school and co-director of its Center for Racial and Economic Justice. Marshall has known Harris since the early 1990s. While Harris was in law school, she and a few other students had begun to understand a district attorney’s powerful decision-making authority – who should be charged, if at all, with what, and how long a judge should be asked to jail those convicted – and wanted it applied more fairly.“I think both of their career choices came directly from their mother’s activism,” Marshall said about the Harris sisters.In 1988, Harris took an internship in the Alameda county district attorney’s office, the place where the supreme court justice Earl Warren – a chief justice whose court transformed the nation, vastly expanding civil rights and liberties to millions of Americans – had been chief prosecutor. She was one of a handful of Black lawyers in the office. It was the height of the crack epidemic, and Harris managed to convince a court to free a woman wrongly arrested in a drug raid. But, like 40% of people who took the California bar exam the next summer, Harris failed. She passed on her second try in 1990 and joined the Alameda prosecutor’s staff, specializing in the prosecution of sex crimes.In a 2019 speech, Harris told the South Carolina NAACP that when it was time to decide what type of lawyer she would be, her family gathered for a conversation. They wanted to know: “Kamala, what are you going to do in your fight for justice?” Explaining why she wanted to be a prosecutor to that group was a bit like defending a thesis, she said.“I know and I knew then prosecutors have not always done the work of justice,” Harris said. “There have been prosecutors who refused to seat Black jurors, refused to prosecute lynchings, disproportionately condemned Black men to death row and looked the other way in the face of police brutality.” But, Harris said, like other lawyers she admired, she decided to “believe in what can be, unburdened by what has been”.There have been moments that convinced her it was the right choice. Once inside the Alameda county prosecutor’s office, Harris was one of a handful of Black prosecutors. One day, she overheard white colleagues chatting in the hall about how to prove that defendants had been in gangs to apply longer sentences. The conversation was riddled with assumptions and stereotypes. One person suggested looking at the person’s neighborhood. Another suggested the truth was in a defendant’s clothes or music. Harris interrupted: the neighborhood they had discussed was one where she had friends and family. The clothes they described were considered stylish. The music, well, she had that on a tape in her car outside.From district attorney to state attorney generalAfter nearly a decade, Harris was recruited to run the career criminal unit in the San Francisco district attorney’s office, focused on violent and repeat criminals, and was responsible for many of the cases whose outcomes were shaped by California’s contribution to the “tough on crime” era – actions states were incentivized to take under a 1994 federal crime bill brokered by then senator Joe Biden.California’s “three strikes” law and federal money to build more prisons made anyone convicted of three felony crimes, even non-violent offenses, eligible for a life sentence. Harris was among those in the San Francisco district attorney’s office who pushed the agency to seek third-strike treatment only if the felonies involved were serious or violent crimes. But the issue and the racial disparities it deepened were bigger than any one prosecutor or DAs office. Today, the Vera Institute for Justice describes California as “one of the epicenters of mass incarceration in the United States, incarcerating more people than any other state except Texas”.Harris lasted in the San Francisco career criminal division for 18 months before San Francisco’s city attorney called. She wanted Harris to come work on child welfare cases. Harris took the job with a condition: she would do court work and policy.“The work was meaningful, empowering and … [i]t also boosted my confidence that when I saw problems, I could be the one to help devise the solutions,” Harris wrote in her book. “All those times my mother had pressed me – ‘Well, what did you do?’ – suddenly made a lot more sense.”The experience was instructive. Harris, prompted by a friend she had met while serving on a non-profit board, ran for San Francisco district attorney. She defeated the incumbent, her old boss, and became the first person of color or woman to serve as district attorney. She was one of three elected Black district attorneys in the entire country.Just two years into her first term, Harris launched what was then a rare program, Back on Track, wherein first-time defendants aged 18-30 would plead guilty to non-violent crimes – and in exchange for getting a job or going to school, performing community service and making use of social workers, see their records expunged. Most years during the rest of Harris’s tenure, the program enrolled 100 or fewer participants, according to district attorney office data. But, only 10% of participants wound up back in the criminal justice system, compared to about half of otherwise comparable defendants in California. The program was evidence that Harris was trying to make good on the logic that had driven the decision to become a prosecutor, said Marshall, who served on the program’s advisory committee.The push and pull between being an insider who wants to change a troubled system, and working inside a system that has helped to sustain American racial inequality created tension for Harris after she ran for and won the California attorney general’s office in 2010, another role once held by Warren.In the attorney general’s office, Harris found herself defending the decisions of what she described as her clients – state agencies – in court. In 2011, that included the corrections department’s decision not to release all prisoners as per a US supreme court order, after evidence of malnutrition and dangerous levels of overcrowding were found in California’s prisons. Governing magazine found that California finally met the court’s mandates in 2015, while Harris was attorney general. What made the difference: voters approved measures reducing the punishment for a number of crimes, prompting prison populations to fall.View image in fullscreenCritics also often point to Harris’s belief that lives could be saved by disrupting the link between truancy and crime. In San Francisco, Harris’s team had discovered that many children missed school not because of their families’ views about education but because they had significant family problems such as no home, no clean clothes, or they needed to babysit an ill sibling so that parents would not miss work. So, they offered these families services that cut truancy by 23% in two years, according to San Francisco school district data reported by the attorney general’s office. But even in this system, some parents were hit with misdemeanor criminal charges, fines and other deterrent measures.Anthony Rackauckas Jr, a “law and order” tough-on-crime district attorney in southern California, used the state truancy law that Harris had championed to have a number of parents, many of them Black, Latino or caring for disabled children, arrested. Harris bore much of the public blame. The law remains in place, as do real differences in the way some district attorneys apply it.In a 2019 interview with HuffPost, Jeff Adachi, a former chief public defender of San Francisco, said: “I think it was a good thing that [Harris] shined a light on [truancy]. There is a correlation between children who fail at school and what happens later in life. [But] the idea of locking parents up, or citing them with a crime because they’re not taking their children to school – it doesn’t address the root of the problem.”Meeting Doug EmhoffIn 2014, at 49, Harris got married for the first time. Harris met Douglas Emhoff, a California lawyer, on a blind date set up by Harris’s best friend. The connection came with habit-aware instructions: you are going on a date. Do not Google him in advance. You will give him a chance. Harris has said she abided by two of the three.Harris discovered that she liked Emhoff almost immediately, she wrote in her book. Emhoff has said that he too was instantly smitten. So, when Harris warned him on that first date that she was a very busy woman, Emhoff went home and emailed a list of dates when he was available for the next few months. People around her noticed the difference Emhoff made.“They would later refer to that era as ‘AD – After Doug’,” Harris wrote. “They loved how much he made me laugh. I did too.”At their August wedding, officiated by Harris’s sister, Harris put a flower garland around Emhoff’s neck, a traditional Indian wedding practice, and he stomped on a covered glass, a Jewish wedding tradition. Harris really liked Emhoff’s kids: his son, Cole, and daughter, Ella, named after John Coltrane and Ella Fitzgerald. Harris instituted a tradition of sit-down Sunday dinners with her new family. Cooking together and talking in the kitchen, Harris has said, features prominently in her memories of her own mother, who died of cancer in 2009.Harris and Emhoff were still newlyweds when the US senator Barbara Boxer, a Democrat from California, announced that she would not seek a sixth term in January 2015. One week later, Harris was in the Senate race. Joe Biden, then the vice-president, swore her into office.Family and lots of friends, including Brown and several more of Harris’s AKA sisters, watched Harris become the first Black senator from California and the only Black woman in the US Senate. In fact, Harris was only the second Black woman to become a senator in the US and the first woman of south Asian descent to do so.White House ambitionsWhen Harris decided to launch a 2020 bid for the White House, she’d been in the Senate about three years. Harris had sponsored 164 bills and/or co-sponsored another 1,197. (Twenty-five have since become law, according to federal records.) As a member of the Senate judiciary committee, she had grilled some witnesses – Brett Kavanaugh, the future supreme court justice among them – in ways that had, for a time, captured the country’s attention.But, her 2020 presidential campaign never seemed to gain momentum under the weight of the widespread condemnation of the American criminal justice system that peaked after the murder of George Floyd.The most significant moment of the short-lived campaign probably came on a primary debate stage. Harris asked Biden to acknowledge that during his long tenure in the Senate, his work with avowed segregationists to stymie federal funding that would have facilitated more busing to integrate schools had been wrong. One of those children to whom bussing had brought opportunities, Harris said on stage, “was me”.View image in fullscreenBut just as the broader culture was undergoing an alleged racial reckoning, similar discussions were happening inside politics. Biden wasn’t the only white power player already well over 70 and going nowhere. Black women, long the backbone of the Democratic party’s voter and organizing base remained scarce in senior positions. Outside consultants and party officials often spent money and political capital in the pursuit of white swing voters, a relatively small group. So, when decisions were being made, when policy priorities were being set, few Black women, and few people born after the July 1964 Civil Rights Act, for that matter, were in those rooms. There was a sense that a debt was owed, the bill was due.Political leaders like Karen Finney, a political strategist and former spokesperson for the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign, and communications director at the Democratic National Committee; Glynda Carr, president and CEO of Higher Heights for America, which works to grow Black women’s political power; Donna Brazile, a political strategist, two-time chair of the Democratic party and the first Black woman to run a presidential campaign; and Minyon Moore, a former Clinton administration official and political consultant, now serving as chair of the 2024 party convention, began to talk about the fact that there were Black women qualified for the vice-president’s job and they should be considered, Finney said.Their recommendation – made in a Zoom meeting with Biden and his team – was Harris.When the story is told by Harris’s opponents, she is the typecasted VP, someone selected in a process that didn’t start with résumés or even political calculus. In reality, just about every vice-president was picked much the same way. Only, time and time again, no Black women had been considered.“It’s a political strategy on the part of the Republican party to undermine [Harris] and to undermine her qualifications,” Finney said. “And unfortunately … this is a very typical playbook that’s often used.”Women’s issues? ‘Oh, you mean the economy’In the White House, Biden gave Harris early tasks which, at minimum, must be described as hard. Chief among them: identifying and helping the administration to address the root causes of the increase in undocumented immigration. Getting to the root causes and their solutions by traveling to Guatemala and Mexico was never going to generate photos of Harris hanging out of the top of a tank or standing at the border with a bullhorn. That really wasn’t Harris’s style or the nature of her assignment, either.Harris didn’t stave off the critics. During a sit-down interview, Harris laughed when Lester Holt, the NBC Nightly News anchor, asked when she would visit the US-Mexico border. The causes of illegal immigration don’t begin within a few feet of the Rio Grande and she hadn’t personally visited Europe either, she responded, saying no one was accusing her of ignoring or avoiding issues there. Republican officials pounced. There was, in Trump’s view, an “invasion” at the border. And many Democrats weren’t happy with a directive Harris issued to undocumented immigrants in a subsequent press conference: “Don’t come” – seeking asylum at a US border crossing is a legal act.“We had never had a Black female vice-president,” said Finney. “She was basically doing the job in her own way but it’s a role that was created for white men. So of course she’s not going to be doing it in the same way all the men before her did it.”The rest of Harris’s portfolio has been largely complicated or long-running matters of domestic concern including gun violence, barriers to entrepreneurship and full economic inclusion for all Americans, maternal healthcare and “gender policy”. Harris has said that when people ask her to talk about “women’s issues”, she often replies: “Oh, you mean the economy.”View image in fullscreenAs vice-president in Washington, Harris cast 33 tie-breaking votes in the US Senate, many to complete or move forward Biden’s nominees for various senior-level federal jobs. She also broke ties more than any other vice-president in history. And she has become the administration’s foremost voice on abortion access.She spoke about it in ways that many who weren’t in the meetings on other issues or working in the vice-president’s office began to notice in March when Harris became the first vice-president to visit a healthcare facility offering abortions in St Paul, Minnesota. There, Harris discussed women’s healthcare and the situation emerging in states that have banned abortions, and warned reporters and others there to brace themselves because she was going to use anatomically correct terms and use the “bouquet of microphones” to share women’s experiences. Tim Walz, the governor, was standing right behind her.“When she was given the roles … then she was able to speak, and she did so very confidently, very boldly,” said Christian Nunes, president of the National Organization for Women (NOW).The birth of the Harris campaignOn 21 July, Harris’s campaign filed paperwork only hours after Biden’s announcement, making her an official candidate for the White House. By that evening, it was clear: this was different.More than 40,000 Black women gathered for a Zoom meeting that night to recognize the significance of the moment, raise money and start organizing. The volume of interest required an exception to Zoom’s virtual meeting size limits, and $1.6m was raised in a few hours. The concept of extremely frank, in-group conversations – about this moment and the specific responses different groups of voters could have, and the stakes they should contemplate – gained traction. White Dudes for Harris, Black Men for Harris, Evangelicals for Harris and Republicans for Harris have gathered in the weeks since.One participant in the estimated 160,000-person white women’s Zoom said every woman and girl in the country faced real threats under a possible second Trump administration, including a loss of control over their bodies and, with that, their lives. “Your whiteness,” one woman in the same Zoom meeting said, “will not save you.” At the same time, over on social media, Kamala was chartreuse green; Kamala was brat. Supercuts of Kamala captured her dancing with marching bands and confidently delivering lacerating, pro-Harris assessments of Trump, some of them backed by the sound of Kendrick Lamar’s Not Like Us and Chappell Roan’s Femininomenon.“You can’t buy that,” said Cornell Belcher, a pollster and founder of the political strategy firm Brilliant Corners who knows Harris and may be best known for his work on the Obama campaigns. “That’s worth hundreds of millions of dollars and it has to happen organically.”Four days after Harris declared herself a candidate for the presidency, she was in Indianapolis, inside the Indiana convention center to address more than 6,000 members of the Zeta Phi Beta Sorority Inc, another member of the Divine Nine.“In this moment,” Harris told the people seated at a sea of round tables before her, “I believe that we face a choice between two different visions for our nation, one focused on the future and the other focused on the past. And with your support, I am fighting for our nation’s future.”“Recognize there are those who are trying to take us back,” Harris continued. “But we are not going back.”It was the birth of the Harris campaign. More

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      Democratic national convention: who are the politicians to watch?

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      Democrats will gather in Chicago on Monday to kick off their convention, where Kamala Harris will formally accept the party’s presidential nomination. Party members have indicated that the theme of the week will be “passing the torch” to a new generation of leaders, after Joe Biden cleared the way for Harris by abandoning his re-election campaign.Conventions provide a unique opportunity for up-and-coming lawmakers to speak to a national audience and boost their name recognition as they prepare for their own possible presidential campaigns in the future.Although the Democratic National Committee has not yet released the list of convention speakers, here are some of the big names expected to take the stage:Pete ButtigiegView image in fullscreenThe former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, surprised the country in 2020 when he launched a seemingly long-shot presidential bid, but the charismatic Buttigieg turned in strong performances in the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. After dropping out of the presidential race and endorsing Biden, Buttigieg, 42, joined the administration as transportation secretary.Like other expected speakers at the convention, Buttigieg was named as a potential running mate for Harris before that post went to the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz. The convention will give Buttigieg another chance to build his national profile, as he is widely expected to launch another White House bid in the years to come.Wes MooreMoore, 45, made history in 2022 when he was elected as the first Black governor of Maryland. A former businessman, Moore has proven himself to be an effective surrogate for Biden and now Harris, and his effectiveness on the campaign trail has sparked speculation about his future plans.While introducing the president and vice-president at an event in Maryland on Thursday, Moore said: “In a few minutes, you’re going to hear not just from the 46th president of the United States, Joe Biden. You’re also going to hear from the 47th president.”The crowd then broke out in chants of “48! 48!” in an apparent reference to Moore’s future campaign to become the 48th president.Gavin NewsomView image in fullscreenThe California governor, 56, has built a reputation as one of the Democratic party’s loudest attack dogs, as he often went toe to toe with Donald Trump during his presidency. His gubernatorial tenure has not been without controversy, as he faced – and overcame – a recall effort in 2021.But Newsom’s ability to punch back against Republicans could be a boon for Democrats’s efforts to draw a clear contrast between Harris and Trump, while also helping to build the governor’s political brand.Alexandria Ocasio-CortezView image in fullscreenOcasio-Cortez, 34, attracted national headlines in 2018, when she pulled off a huge upset to defeat a 10-term incumbent in her Democratic primary. The New York congresswoman has quickly become known as one of progressives’ most engaging communicators on issues like healthcare costs and student loan debt.In a year when Democrats are counting on young voters to turn out at the polls to help them win up and down the ballot, Ocasio-Cortez’s presence on the convention stage could help the party motivate a new generation of Americans.JB PritzkerView image in fullscreenThe 59-year-old governor of Illinois is widely expected to get a prime speaking slot at the convention, as it will be held in his home state. The speech would give Pritzker a chance to flourish his credentials of having codified the right to abortion in Illinois and declaring it a “sanctuary state” for women seeking abortions. He has also been strong on gun control, and legalised recreational marijuana.Harris reportedly considered Pritzker to be her running mate before choosing Walz, as the Illinois governor was similarly viewed as a potential asset in the midwestern battleground states like Michigan and Wisconsin. With a reported net worth of $3.5bn, Pritzker would also be the wealthiest lawmaker to address the convention.Josh ShapiroView image in fullscreenShapiro, 51, has been a rising political star in a crucial swing state for years but shot to national prominence in fall 2022 when, as state attorney general, he won the gubernatorial race over an extreme Trumpist Republican.He was one of the two finalists in Harris’s search for a running mate, but progressives raised concerns about his support for Israel and record on private school vouchers. When Walz was announced as the pick, Shapiro said in a statement: “Pennsylvanians elected me to a four-year term as their governor, and my work here is far from finished – there is a lot more stuff I want to get done for the good people of this commonwealth.”Known as a compelling orator who models himself off Barack Obama, a convention speech would give Shapiro the opportunity to push back against some of the criticisms leveled against him during the veepstakes.Gretchen WhitmerView image in fullscreenThe Michigan governor, 52, was on Biden’s running mate shortlist in 2020, and her party’s strong showing in the midterms was in part attributed to her governership. She has been in favor of stricter gun laws, repealing abortion bans and backing universal preschool. Viewed as one of the party’s most promising leaders, Whitmer was also named as a potential running mate for Harris, but the governor withdrew from consideration early.“I have communicated with everyone, including the people of Michigan, that I’m going to stay as governor until the end of my term at the end of 2026,” Whitmer said of her decision.Depending on the outcome in November, Whitmer may have an opportunity to run for the White House in 2028 – or she may wait until 2032 if Harris can pull off a victory. More

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      Rising stars have the chance to shine at Democratic convention

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      In 2004, Barack Obama was a relatively unknown state legislator trying to become Illinois’ next senator – until his speech at the Democratic convention. When Democrats gathered in Boston to nominate John Kerry, many Americans heard Obama speak for the first time. And they were mesmerized.“I stand here knowing that my story is part of the larger American story, that I owe a debt to all of those who came before me, and that, in no other country on earth, is my story even possible,” Obama said that evening.Four years later, Obama stood on the convention stage to accept the party’s presidential nomination. The 2004 speech offers one of the clearest examples of how convention speeches can elevate a rising political star to national prominence. When Democrats convene in Chicago next week to nominate Kamala Harris, a number of the party’s most promising lawmakers are expected to address the American people as they look to build their national profiles and potentially plan for their own presidential campaigns.“The convention is a really powerful opportunity because tens of millions, if not more – probably hundreds of millions across all the different platforms and social media clips and stuff like that – are going to watch what happens in Chicago over the next week,” said Amanda Litman, co-founder of the group Run for Something, which recruits young leaders to run for office.The Democratic National Committee has not yet released its list of convention speakers, but party leaders have emphasized that the theme of the week will be passing the torch to a new generation of leaders, reflecting Harris’s ascension to the nomination after Joe Biden abandoned his presidential campaign last month.Certain lawmakers are widely expected to receive prime speaking slots. Governors like Wes Moore of Maryland, Gavin Newsom of California, JB Pritzker of Illinois and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan will likely have a chance to address the convention crowd. Some of the expected speakers – including Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro and transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg – were named as potential running mates for Harris before that position went to Tim Walz, the Minnesota governor, who will address the convention on Wednesday.That somewhat awkward dynamic underscores an unexpected challenge facing rising stars in the party. With Harris as the nominee, the dynamic for them has changed. They previously thought they would address a convention where Biden was the nominee. If Biden were still in the race and then won re-election, he could not run again in 2028. But if Harris wins in November, she will have the chance to seek re-election in 2028, meaning the next open Democratic primary may not occur until 2032.With that in mind, up-and-coming leaders will need to balance their promotion of Harris’s campaign with their efforts to grow their national profiles. That delicate dynamic was on display Thursday, when Moore was introducing Biden and Harris at an event in Maryland.“In a few minutes, you’re going to hear not just from the 46th president of the United States, Joe Biden. You’re also going to hear from the 47th president,” Moore said, nodding to Harris’s campaign.The crowd then broke out in chants of “48! 48!” in an apparent reference to Moore’s future campaign to become the 48th president.While Harris’s elevation complicates speakers’ task, it could also present them with an opportunity.“They can tap into the palpable enthusiasm and excitement that is electrifying not just Chicago but the entire country over the next week,” said Antonio Arellano, vice-president of communications for the youth voting group NextGen. “They can tap into that energy that this change at the top of the ticket has generated and really lean into the fact that the Democratic party is the party of the future. It is a party that is listening to the American people, particularly young voters.”Surveys show that Harris has indeed captivated the Democratic party base since launching her campaign last month. A poll conducted this month by Monmouth University found that 92% of Democratic voters are enthusiastic about having Harris as the party’s nominee, compared to 62% who said the same of Biden back in February.“The American people, especially young voters, have been demanding to turn the page, and the Harris-Walz campaign is delivering on this exciting moment,” said Rahna Epting, executive director of the progressive group MoveOn Political Action. “It’s time for a new generation of leaders to take the stage, and the pro-democracy, anti-Trump coalition is fired up to build on the momentum heading into the fall.”And while well-known lawmakers like Newsom and Whitmer will almost certainly get a spotlight at the convention, other rising stars in the party may get a chance to speak as well. Arellano hopes to hear from first-year House members like Jasmine Crockett of Texas and Maxwell Frost of Florida, who is the first gen Z member of Congress. Litman expects that the convention will also bring attention to more junior lawmakers, such as state legislators who have played a key role in the fight over abortion access since the reversal of Roe v Wade in 2022.“There have been really powerful state and local leaders who have done amazing work, and I hope they’ll get a spotlight,” Litman said. “I think they should talk really genuinely and authentically about what they’ve been doing and what they will do, but I expect we’ll hear a lot about reproductive health and abortion access.”Arellano echoed Litman’s expectation that abortion will be a primary focus of the convention, and he expects many speakers will also make a point to outline a progressive vision for the economy. With poll after poll showing that voters rank the economy and the cost of living as two of their top concerns, Democrats need to demonstrate how their agenda will materially improve the lives of Americans, particularly young Americans.“They want to be able to not just get by, but get ahead,” Arellano said. “What they’re wanting to hear are policy proposals, legislative priorities that are going to make sure that we level the playing field for once and for all, that our economy is measured not by how well big corporations are doing, but by how well ordinary Americans are doing.“[The convention] presents an opportunity to really drive home that contrast between a party that is celebrating joy, celebrating enthusiasm, driving excitement about what’s possible in the future, versus a party that’s looking at the past as a source of inspiration and wants to drag our country backwards 50 years.” More

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      ‘The world is watching’: 1968 protests set stage for Democratic convention

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      Sean Wilentz was in the convention hall when someone handed out copies of a news wire report. “I remember the first line,” he says. “It said, ‘The lid blew off of this convention city tonight.’” The article went on to describe chaos and bloodshed in Chicago as police clashed with protesters against the Vietnam war.Just 17 at the time, Wilentz and a couple of friends raced to the scene in downtown Chicago. “It was horrible. The cops were angry and didn’t like the kids and the kids were angry and didn’t like the cops. I saw a motorcycle cop go on a sidewalk and pin a kid against the wall. I was very scared.”View image in fullscreenMore than half a century has passed since a police riot scarred the Democratic national convention of 1968. On Monday Democrats return to Chicago with a spring in their step as they prepare to anoint Kamala Harris their presidential candidate. Yet some comparisons with the events of 56 years ago are irresistible.Just as in 1968, a would-be assassin has sought to change the course of political history. Just as in 1968, an incumbent president has stepped aside and a vice-president will gain the Democratic nomination without winning a single primary vote. And just as in 1968, protesters will gather to demonstrate their anger over US involvement in an unpopular war.Democrats are praying that the similarities end there. When the teargas cleared in Chicago, Hubert Humphrey, a self-styled “happy warrior”, emerged as the standard-bearer of a bitterly divided party. He went on to lose the election to Richard Nixon who, like fellow Republican Donald Trump, pushed a “law and order” message to exploit white voters’ fears and prejudices.View image in fullscreenMuch has changed since Trump secured the Republican nomination at the party’s own convention in Milwaukee last month. With 81-year-old Joe Biden fading in opinion polls, the Democratic campaign had come to resemble a death march. But his decision to quit the race and throw his weight behind Harris triggered an explosion of relief, self-belief and surging enthusiasm.Next week’s Democratic convention will put the capstone on the dramatic turnaround. Harris and running mate Tim Walz, who have been drawing huge crowds at rallies and millions of dollars in donations, will be formally nominated and deliver the most important speeches of their careers – probably resulting in a further polling bump.But the carefully stage-managed event – also featuring Biden, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and A-list celebrities – could yet go off script. Thousands of pro-Palestinian protesters are expected to gather outside to demand that the US end military aid to Israel amid the ongoing war in Gaza, where the death toll has surpassed 40,000, according to the healthy ministry there.The March on the DNC, a coalition of more than 200 organisations from all over the US, plans to hold demonstrations on Monday and Thursday, the days when Biden and Harris are due to speak. Its website brands the president “Genocide Joe Biden” and warns: “Democratic party leadership switching out their presidential nominee does not wash the blood of over 50,000 Palestinians off their hands.”Although a sprawling security plan has been drawn up by federal, state and city governments, some activists have vowed a replay of 1968, when years of unrest over the American misadventure in Vietnam came to a head in Chicago. Then, as now, students took up the anti-war cause with campus protests, including at Columbia University in New York, where Hamilton Hall was occupied in both 1968 and 2024.View image in fullscreenThere was already political uncertainty after President Lyndon B Johnson closed a speech about the Vietnam war with the stunning announcement that he would not seek another term. Biden has similarly dropped out of the election race, albeit later in the cycle and for very different reasons.America was further shaken by the assassinations of Martin Luther King Jr and Robert Kennedy, who was running for the Democratic nomination, and by cities burning in protest at racial injustice. Last month Trump narrowly survived an attempt on his life at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania but one of his supporters was killed.Wilentz, now 73 and a history professor at Princeton University, recalled: “The thing about Chicago: this is the culmination of a crisis that had been building in American politics for five or six years and it was also feeding off the civil rights movement. There was a real feeling of desperation, that this disaster is going to continue. The politics were very fraught and furious and one was not necessarily thinking strategically.”In late August more than 10,000 protesters opposing the Vietnam war and assorted other causes held huge demonstrations near the convention site. Some threw red paint to simulate blood and occupied major roads to block traffic. The official response was brutal with widespread use of teargas, beatings and arrests by the police and national guard. The carnage was broadcast live on television and demonstrators chanted: “The whole world is watching.”View image in fullscreenEyewitness Taylor Pensoneau, 83, who was reporting for the St Louis Post-Dispatch newspaper, recalled: “The protesters were doing a lot to taunt the Chicago police. They were throwing bottles and stones at the police and they were calling them pigs and confronting them. It was a very incendiary situation.“It seemed inevitable that at some point the Chicago police were going to respond and eventually they did in a very forceful manner, swinging billy clubs and pushing protesters to the ground. A lot of people were getting hurt. It was a riot.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThere was even mayhem inside the convention hall, including assaults on journalists. Supporters of anti-war candidates such as senator Eugene McCarthy clashed with supporters of Humphrey, who won the nomination with the backing of party elites and dared not defy Johnson over the war until much later.At first glance Humphrey appears to have little in common with Harris. But there is tonal echo. Humphrey had “The Happy Warrior” painted on his plane and, when first declaring his candidacy, remarked: “Here we are the way politics ought to be in America, the politics of happiness, politics of purpose, politics of joy.” Terms such as “happy warriors” and “politics of joy” have been widely applied to Harris and Walz.Such an upbeat approach could come over as tone deaf as children are dying in Gaza, according to Norman Solomon, national director of the progressive group RootsAction. He said: “I was 17 in 1968 and I remember it was like, what are you talking about, the politics of joy? Maybe you’re happy but the administration that you’re part of continues to massacre people on a large scale in Vietnam.“Harris is on an upswing with Walz and in terms of defeating Trump that’s good but the disconnect with people in Dearborn [home of the biggest Arab American community] or people who will be in the streets in Chicago next week is pretty severe. She’s talking politics of joy and Congress is voting the billions more for weapons. The US keeps helping to kill people in Gaza and she dispatches her national security adviser to say she’s absolutely against an arms embargo. It’s almost split screen.”Harris’s acceptance speech on Thursday night will be watched closely for clues that, unlike Humphrey at the convention, she is ready to put some clear daylight between herself and Biden, an ardent Zionist, on the Gaza issue. That could be crucial in persuading Arab American, Muslim and young voters to give her the benefit of the doubt.James Zogby, the founder and president of the Arab American Institute in Washington, said: “She was the first one to call for a ceasefire. She was the first one to call for Palestinian self-determination. She was the first one to use very powerful language about the devastation of Gaza and the suffering of the people there.“She’s been about as clear as you could be that there is a difference in her outlook on this. I’m not going to let you in on all of them but there are indications we’re getting that they do want to turn corners here. They’ve opened a door already in terms of language and policy will follow.”Zogby also doubts that there will be any repeat of the mayhem inside the 1968 convention hall. Of more than 4,000 delegates, only 30 are “uncommitted”, representing a grassroots voter coalition that has opposed Biden’s Gaza policy. This is “nowhere near what you would require to have any kind of floor demonstration”, he said.View image in fullscreen“If there’s a disruption, it would be a handful of people in sea of other delegates. It would not be 1968. Outside, on the other hand, is a different story because, even though many of the groups demonstrating intend to keep it civil and constructive, anytime you get something that large, it develops a dynamic all of its own.”The parallels with 1968 are undoubtedly striking. But the difference may prove more important. The Vietnam war and its draft affected far more Americans than the current conflict in Gaza. Few analysts believe that Gaza will have as much electoral significance, except perhaps in Michigan. Nixon would become embroiled in the Watergate scandal but did not threaten democracy as Trump does.Wilentz commented: “1968 was a very different time than anything I’ve ever seen in this country. There’s certain similarities between this year and that year in the sense that you have events happening very quickly and they seem traumatic. But nothing in comparison to what 68 felt like.” More

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      How the siege of Gaza split America: ‘a battle for the political system’s soul’

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      View image in fullscreenRarely has a head of state received a more hostile welcome than that which met the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, when he arrived in Washington DC to speak before a joint session of Congress last month. While no senior US officials turned up to greet him on the tarmac, thousands of demonstrators marched in protest of his speech, including 200 from the group Jewish Voice for Peace who were arrested during an occupation on Capitol Hill, and others who burned him in effigy and replaced the American flag flying in front of Union Station with a Palestinian flag.Perhaps more telling was the decision of roughly half of congressional Democrats to boycott the address altogether. “A dozen years ago, that would have been unthinkable,” noted Peter Frey, board chair of J Street, a Jewish lobbying group that supports Israeli security as well as a Palestinian state. One lawmaker who did attend, the representative Rashida Tlaib, wore a keffiyeh and held a sign calling Netanyahu a “war criminal” who was “guilty of genocide”. Meanwhile, a number of labor unions, including the National Education Association, the Service Employees International Union and United Auto Workers sent a letter to Joe Biden calling for an end to US support for Israel’s war in Gaza.Polling shows that some 70% of Democrats and 35% of Republicans favor conditions on military aid to Israel, but with each day, the disconnect between what voters want and what the Biden administration does seems to widen. One consequence is that citizens’ already flagging trust in their government is steadily eroded. “It’s a battle for the soul of the political system on this issue,” Frey said. “And it’s playing out in real time in front of us. It is not healthy. It’s not good for Israel.” And to the extent that Americans care about foreign policy, he added, “I think it does in the long run maybe undermine confidence in the political system.”Eroding consensusThat disconnect will be on display next week at the Democratic national convention, where supporters of Palestinian human rights plan to pressure the party to include the call for an immediate ceasefire and a weapons embargo of Israel as planks of its platform. “This is not just a policy stance, it’s a moral imperative,” said Layla Elabed, an activist with the Uncommitted National Movement (who happens to be Tlaib’s sister), on a recent organizing call.It is a tall order, but for many in the movement, it seems within reach. Months before Biden’s disastrous debate performance; before the drumbeat of marquee defections; before the flash of Nancy Pelosi’s shank on Morning Joe, the candidacy suffered its first major blow courtesy of these same activists. By persuading more than 100,000 Michigan Democrats to cast their primary ballots for “uncommitted”, rather than back the man who they believed was enabling a genocide, they had sent the Democratic establishment a forceful message: one of the most critical swing states in the 2024 election was at risk.Eventually, more than 700,000 primary voters in 23 states would vote the same way – a signal that support for Israel’s actions in Gaza could become a political liability for centrist Democrats, as it recently did for their counterparts in France and the UK. Due to its strong showing, the group won 30 delegates to the DNC.The protest vote provided another piece of evidence that, at least among liberals, a longstanding affinity for Israel was quickly eroding, one more casualty of a brutal 10-month conflict that shows no sign of ending and may well escalate into a full-on regional war. In addition to killing more than 40,000 Palestinians (and probably many more indirectly), displacing millions and destroying more than half the area’s buildings, the Gaza war appears to have damaged, perhaps irreparably, Israel’s “special relationship” with its most important champion.Meanwhile, Biden’s stubborn support for the onslaught, despite its apparent failure to meet its stated goals of destroying Hamas and freeing the hostages, has done more than threaten the Democratic coalition. It has stoked a sharp generational divide, with younger Americans nearly twice as likely to express support for the Palestinian cause as their parents – fomenting wrenching generational disagreements, especially within Jewish families. It has riven campuses, leading venerable institutions supposedly dedicated to free inquiry and critical thinking to respond with police violence to the mostly peaceful activism of their own students. And perhaps most alarmingly, it has given many Americans cause to doubt our nation’s commitment to free speech, human rights and the rule of law – to wonder, in short, just what America stands for.‘The hypocrisy is ripe’Among those most unsettled by the new dynamic are left-leaning Jewish students, many of whom maintain a broad devotion to Israel even as they decry its current policies. Now, many of them find themselves increasingly isolated from longtime political allies. While troubled by the strident rhetoric heard at some protests they otherwise support, they are nonetheless distressed by the efforts of pro-Israel advocacy groups, establishment politicians and college administrators to paint all anti-war demonstrations as antisemitic.“I identify as a progressive,” said Lauren Haines, a senior at the University of Michigan and the former president of J Street U, the group’s campus wing. “I look at pictures and hear about Gaza every single day, like it keeps me up at night, just knowing that I could be complicit because my tax dollars are going to this. But I’ve been very frustrated by some of the left’s tactics. There’s this false dichotomy of ‘you’re with us or against us.’”She continued: “I stand with the Palestinian people, and I think you can absolutely fight for justice for them without engaging in this really polarizing and harmful discourse, like saying all Zionists are evil or attacking Jewish institutions for having ties to Israel.”That said, Haines decries the violent repression of pro-Palestine demonstrations. “The sheer amount of police violence on college campuses has been absolutely disgusting,” Haines said, “even if I disagree with protesters on some things.”The novelist Omar El Akkad has been similarly troubled by the violent repression of demonstrations. “When I looked at these campus protests, I saw some of the most diverse coalitions of human beings that I’ve seen in any context within the United States,” he noted. “And the response from university administrators and a slew of politicians seemed to run against every central principle of what makes the United States sometimes feel like an exceptional society.”While conservatives seem untroubled by the devastation in Gaza (Trump has advised Israel to “finish it up”), many Americans remain deeply attached to a national self-conception as a beacon of freedom and human dignity. What so troubles a younger generation is not only US support for the Gaza offensive but what it says about the country’s role in the world, said Michael Barnett, a professor of international affairs and political science at George Washington University. “It’s the idea of an immoral US foreign policy – that there’s just something that is too cutthroat, too wrong, too unethical,” he said. Denouncing Russian aggression in Ukraine while giving Israel an apparent blank check to obliterate Palestine simply doesn’t compute. “The hypocrisy is ripe,” Barnett explained, “and they’re picking up on it.”In February, Akkad, who is best known for the 2017 novel American War, will publish a nonfiction book about widespread indifference to the horrors of Gaza, entitled One Day Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This. Growing up in Egypt and Qatar, he said, he admired the United States as “a place where there were these underlying principles of equal justice and fairness under the law and all that”. But now, “as I watch virtually every leader of every major superpower in the west kind of shrug off a genocide, and even using the term becomes this matter of polite debate”, he said, he’s not so sure.The longer the war goes on, it seems, the more this anguish over America’s complicity is likely to grow. “I think in some ways everyone is feeling this,” Frey said, “whether you’re a politician or you’re just a layperson, whether you’re Jewish or non-Jewish. It is an extremely uncomfortable situation, and it continues because the war unfortunately is continuing, and the stories that are coming out just keep perpetuating it.”Whether a possible Kamala Harris administration would change course is uncertain. Some observers were cheered by Harris’s reportedly tough conversation with Netanyahu and her decision to select Tim Walz over Josh Shapiro, whose support for Israel and denunciation of antiwar protesters outraged progressives.Then again, there’s room for skepticism that the vice-president would significantly alter US policy. After reports circulated that she had agreed to meet with uncommitted delegates to discuss an arms embargo, her national security adviser, Phil Gordon, clarified her position. The vice-president, he wrote, “will always ensure Israel is able to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups. She does not support an arms embargo on Israel. She will continue to work to protect civilians in Gaza and to uphold international humanitarian law.”As Israel continues its assault, decimating Gaza and killing civilians and militants alike with US supplied weapons, such equivocations strike many Americans as deeply hollow. With thousands of anti-war protesters descending on Chicago to protest against the DNC, and dozens of uncommitted delegates making their case inside the hall, the question of America’s role in what many experts have called a genocide will figure prominently at the convention. Harris’s answer will have far-reaching implications – not only for her candidacy, the prospect of peace in the Middle East, and the beleaguered civilians rushing from one “safe zone” to the next as bombs explode around them, but for the US’s global standing and its citizens’ faith in its reputation as a force for good in the world. More

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      Kamala Harris has made a dream start. But it’s too early to count out Donald Trump | Jonathan Freedland

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      Everything is going right for her and wrong for him. Kamala Harris has the encouraging poll numbers and, more precious still, the momentum. Donald Trump has the serial errors, the maudlin introspection and wobbling campaign team. In less than three weeks, the Democrats have pulled off one of the most extraordinary turnarounds in US political history, replacing a candidate who was shuffling towards near-certain defeat with one apparently soaring towards possible victory. And yet, even as Harris speaks of bringing the joy, contained within is a lurking danger – a peril that should be all too familiar.The sources of joy are not mysterious. Democrats are heading to Chicago for a convention that will feel like a party but was set to be a wake. Before 21 July, they were tied to Joe Biden, a man whose presidency has proved far more consequential than most predicted but who was on course to lose and lose badly in November. His passing of the baton to his number two has gone better than anyone had any right to expect.All but seamlessly, the campaign has switched over – equivalent to rebuilding a plane in mid-air, say seasoned election hands – and the candidate herself has taken to the task with unexpected ease. Twenty years younger and a whole lot more vigorous than her opponent, she has turned what had been Trump’s most potent weapon against Biden – age – against Trump himself. He is now the candidate of the past, she the face of the future. Never mind that Harris is a senior member of the present administration, she has shaken off the burden of incumbency – currently a negative in most democracies across the world – and cast herself as the turn-the-page option, aided by a powerful slogan: “We’re not going back.”The evidence that it’s working is in the headline poll numbers, which show her edging ahead in the very battleground states where Biden had been trailing. Almost overnight, she is winning back the voters who propelled Biden to victory in 2020 but were drifting away from him in 2024: young, Black and Hispanic Americans. Drawing big crowds, inspiring a thousand social-media memes, she is generating something Democrats have not seen since the first Barack Obama campaign of 2008: excitement.All this is having an equal and opposite effect on Trump. The better her numbers or crowds get, the more gloomy and rattled he becomes, consoling himself with the delusion that photos of Harris’s massive audiences are AI fakes. The New Yorker’s Susan Glasser depicts Trump as bereft, missing Biden as he pines for the return of the man he knew how to run against. That contest was simple: it was strong v weak, with Biden’s age doing the work.But now Trump faces Harris, and he can’t quite work out how to take her on. He can’t fix on a nickname, he can’t settle on a target. His team wants him to run on immigration and inflation – both Democratic vulnerabilities – but he keeps returning to the terrain he knows best: culture wars and race baiting. Just as he once falsely claimed that Obama was not born in the US, Trump initially offered his theory that only late in life did Harris happen “to turn Black”. He also regularly describes the vice-president as a “low IQ individual”, a phrase he has long applied to Black female politicians. His base may like this talk, but it repels everyone else.An illustration of the unsettling effect Harris is having on Trump came in the mutual back-scratch he conducted with X magnate Elon Musk this week. “She looks like the most beautiful actress ever to live,” Trump said about a drawing of Harris on the cover of Time magazine. “She looked very much like our great first lady, Melania,” he added, referring to his wife. Along with any listener to that exchange, Trump doesn’t know where to put himself.Because he is knocked off balance, he keeps stumbling. The Musk encounter was a case in point. After the embarrassment of a tech breakdown that led to a start delayed by 40-plus minutes, Trump rambled for two hours, straying into baffling tangents and frankly weird claims. One example: “global warming” is no threat, because rising sea levels mean “more oceanfront property”. (The real danger, he said, is the warmth of nuclear weapons.) What’s more, Trump seemed to speak with a heavy lisp throughout. None of this might matter much in itself, but it shows that Trump is beginning to get some of the same scrutiny of his cognitive and physical capacities that drove Biden to step aside. Put simply, age is now his problem.So this race is going exactly the way Harris would want it to go. Trump is lashing out at allies and, always a sign of a troubled campaign, shaking up his team. He is saddled with a running mate whose back catalogue would make a Gilead commander blush, while he paints an ever-darkening picture of a US in decline, a nation riddled with crime and overrun by scary invaders. All the while, she is beaming about a brighter tomorrow. As the Republican sage Mike Murphy puts it, “He’s doing Voldemort and she’s doing Ted Lasso.”Where, then, is the danger? First, the polling is not quite as rosy as Democrats want it to be. Dig further into the numbers and you see that, despite everything, Donald Trump is more popular now than he was at this same, mid-August point in either 2020 or 2016. His approval rating currently stands at 44%. In August 2016, a paltry 33% of Americans had a positive view of him – but he went on to win.What’s more, in each of the three crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, Harris is ahead by only four points, according to the latest survey. That’s welcome progress, to be sure, but it’s not enough when you recall that Trump put on nine points between August and November in those states in 2016 and closed the gap to a photo-finish in 2020.Harris may be more charismatic than either of the Democratic standard-bearers in those earlier contests, but she has vulnerabilities of her own. She is clearly a figure of the “coastal elites”: a wealthy Californian, she has no equivalent of the Scranton Joe persona available to Biden. Both she and her running mate, the Minnesota governor Tim Walz, have a history of progressive positions that anyone with a memory knows Republicans can twist into a caricature of leftwing radicalism. True, Walz’s vibe is cuddly midwestern dad – and there’s good evidence that, these days, a politician’s vibe matters more than their record – but there’s still a job to do. It’s almost a universal truth of contemporary politics that any party not of the right has to go much further than it would like to reassure voters in the centre. (Just ask Keir Starmer.) By that measure, the Democratic nominee may still have some distance to travel.Above all, and paradoxically, it’s Harris’s astonishing early success that contains risk. It has encouraged Democrats to believe that, in ditching Biden, the hard work has already been done, that the menace of a second Trump presidency has been averted. But this remains a perilously close contest in a sharply divided nation. As we have seen twice in recent years, Republicans enjoy a structural advantage in the electoral college that means that a Democrat can win the popular vote by a resounding margin – and still lose.So, yes, Harris has made a dream start. Trump is flailing. But it is far, far too early to celebrate. In the autumn, Americans will take their traditional second look at the two candidates. There will be TV debates and the hard yards of getting voters not to share memes on TikTok but off the couch and to the polling booth. This race is far from over – and if the last, turbulent decade has taught us anything, it’s that it is always too soon to count out Donald Trump.

      Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist More

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      Harris has two paths to victory – Rust belt or Sun belt, polling analysts say

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      Kamala Harris’s surge in popularity since replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee has opened up a surprise second path to victory in November, according to a fresh analysis of recent voter surveys.An aggregate of polls modelled by the Washington Post shows that the US vice-president has become newly competitive in four southern Sun belt states that were previously leaning heavily towards Donald Trump, the Republican nominee and former president.If the trend holds, it means Harris could eke out an electoral college victory either by winning those states – Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina – or, alternatively, by capturing three swing states in the midwestern Rust belt, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.Trump, by contrast, would need to capture both groups of states to earn the 270 electoral college votes necessary to secure victory, according to the model.The opening up of a potential second front in Harris’s pathway to victory may be the biggest boon yet from her elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket in place of Biden, whose only path to staying in office appeared to hinge on winning the three Rust belt states.Harris has gained an average of two percentage points nationally, and 2.1% in seven battleground states, since replacing Biden, who pulled out of the race on 21 July after weeks of intense pressure over a bad debate performance the previous month.The transformation in the party’s chances of retaining the White House amounts to a “reset” of the election race and might even make Harris a “slight favourite”, according to the analysis. It is largely due to renewed impetus in key swing states under the candidacy of Harris and Tim Walz, the Minnesota governor who she chose as her running mate.The outcome of US presidential elections is determined not by the popular vote, but by which candidate wins a majority of 538 electoral college votes, which are allotted state by state.Polls show many things, but in aggregate they appear to suggest that Harris now leads in the Rust belt states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and has closed the gap in another, Michigan, to within one point of Trump, the former president and Republican nominee. Biden won all three states, albeit by narrow margins, in 2020.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBut she has also significantly improved on Biden’s post-debate standing – when the president’s poll position evaporated badly in all key states and even began to deteriorate in states previously considered safe – in three Sun belt states, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, plus North Carolina, where she has pulled close enough to Trump to be within the polls’ margin of error.Biden won the first of those three states, again by narrow margins, in 2020 but lost North Carolina by less than two percentage points. Amid Harris’s recent surge, Democratic strategists have started to envision carrying the state, despite the party only having won it once in presidential elections since 1980.The uptick in support makes her competitive in more states than Trump that would enable her to reach the required 270 electoral college votes.However, Harris still trails Trump in the final tally, if the polls are accurate and the election were held now.Another boon to Harris is a Washington Post/Ipsos poll that shows her choice of Walz as running mate playing better with voters than Trump’s selection of JD Vance, who has seemed to hit trouble with female voters because of his hardline anti-abortion views and track record of misogynistic comments about childless women.The survey showed 39% of voters having a favourable view of Walz – who has been targeted by Republicans because of his left-leaning policies as Minnesota governor – and 30% unfavourable, giving him a positive rating of 9%. Vance, on the other hand, recorded a 32% favourable rating against 42% who saw him unfavourably, a negative rating that chimes with other polls, some of which have measured him as the most unpopular vice-presidential pick in history.Reflecting her campaign’s bullishness about its prospects in the state as it approaches next week’s Democratic national convention, Harris was due to make a keynote economic speech in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Friday where she was expected to set out policies on price gouging, rising food prices and high housing costs. All are areas that Republicans see as potential vulnerabilities for Harris.Vance, a senator for Ohio, was due to speak in the Wisconsin city of Milwaukee, following appearances in Pennsylvania and Michigan in recent days, mirroring the Trump campaign’s recognition of the need to win the states. More