Democrats

Subterms

    More stories

    • 150 Shares119 Views

      in US Politics

      Five things we learned from our reporting on the US’s pro-Israel lobby

      by

      The progressive US representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota easily overcame a primary challenge on Tuesday, delivering a major victory for progressives after a primary season marked by mixed success amid an onslaught of spending from pro-Israel lobby groups.The progressive “Squad” in the House were early to embrace calls for a ceasefire in Gaza and criticize Israel’s offensive for its toll on civilians, drawing the ire of groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac). Omar and Summer Lee of Pennsylvania were still able to easily cruise to victory in their primaries, but pro-Israel groups successfully picked off its two biggest Squad targets of this primary season: Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri.The Guardian followed key congressional races affected by Aipac and similar groups for the past few months. With the primaries coming to a close, here’s what we learned about the pro-Israel lobby’s efforts this year.1Aipac is spending more as public opinion on Israel shiftsThe $23m Aipac pumped into defeating just two members of Congress can be seen as evidence of the depth of the pro-Israel lobby’s concern that public opinion is shifting away from decades of largely unquestioning support for Israel as the US’s “greatest ally”, particularly among young Americans. These shifts in public opinion threaten the claims of a bipartisan consensus on support for Israel in Congress.Aipac’s creation of the United Democracy Project (UDP) political action committee in 2021 to directly intervene in election campaigns for the first time was in part a response to opinion polls showing that even before the present war in Gaza, half of Democrats wanted the US to give more support to Palestinians.The group pledged to spend $100m this election year; it has so far spent more than $90m. Bowman and Bush’s races were the two most expensive House primaries in history, according to the firm AdImpact.Bowman and Bush were elected to Congress on the back of the Black Lives Matter movement, which has focused on reframing the Palestinian cause as a civil rights issue of resistance to Israeli domination. The shift in narrative alarms Aipac, as has the impact of international court rulings against Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories and a growing consensus within international human rights organisations that Israel imposes a form of apartheid on Palestinians.The war in Gaza, where Israel has killed at least 40,000 Palestinians, a majority of them civilians, has only added to the challenges now facing the pro-Israel lobby, with a third of Democrats saying Biden has not been “tough enough”with Israel.2Pro-Israel groups spent big to pick off vulnerable incumbentsAipac’s UDP spent $14.6m in its campaign to unseat Bowman. The group Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI) spent another $1m to help George Latimer, the Westchester county executive, win the Democratic nomination.In Bush’s primary, UDP spent $8.6m to promote the campaign of Wesley Bell, a St Louis prosecutor, and DMFI contributed close to $500,000 to the effort.View image in fullscreenThe financial commitment paid off, as both Bowman and Bush went on to lose their primaries. But it’s worth noting that Bowman and Bush were already viewed as more vulnerable than some of their other Squad colleagues at the start of the primary season.Bowman had attracted negative headlines last year for pulling a fire alarm in the Capitol during a crucial vote, an incident that prompted a misdemeanor charge and a formal House censure. Bowman also had to apologize in January for writing some now-deleted blogposts promoting conspiracy theories about the September 11 attacks, and Latimer was helped by redistricting, which brought more of the suburban voters inclined to support him to the district. Meanwhile, the justice department is investigating Bush’s spending on security services, after she married her security guard and kept him on her campaign payroll. View image in fullscreenGroups like UDP and DMFI chose to focus their attention on lawmakers who already had some kind of baggage heading into their primaries.3Pro-Israel groups stayed out of races they deemed unwinnableMany election watchers expected Lee’s primary in Pennsylvania to be the first test of the pro-Israel lobby’s strength against the Squad, but UDP and DMFI chose to stay out of the race.The decision came as somewhat of a surprise, as UDP and DMFI collectively spent nearly $4.4m against Lee when she first ran for Congress in 2022. But the groups opted out of the race this year after Lee spent her first term in Congress building goodwill with her constituents and delivering more than $1.2bn in funding for her district.View image in fullscreenThe Super Pac Moderate Pac, backed by the Republican mega-donor Jeffrey Yass, did get involved in Lee’s race, but it was not enough to prevent her victory. Lee ultimately defeated her opponent, local council member Bhavini Patel, by 21 points.A similar pattern played out with Omar. She beat Don Samuels, a former Minneapolis city council member, by 13 points on Tuesday after pro-Israel groups chose to stay out of the race. The progressive representative Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian American member of the House and one of the most vocal ceasefire supporters, did not even draw a primary challenger.In races where they did not think they could win, pro-Israel groups simply opted out altogether.4The pro-Israel lobby’s messaging didn’t focus on the war in GazaAlthough pro-Israel groups targeted pro-ceasefire members, their attack ads generally did not focus on the war in Gaza. That choice was strategic, as polls show that an overwhelming majority of Democrats support calls for a ceasefire.Instead, ads from UDP tried to paint members like Bowman and Bush as uncooperative Democrats sowing discord within the party and more focused on their national profiles than their districts. One UDP attack ad against Bowman specifically called out his votes against the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the debt ceiling agreement, mirroring the group’s later attacks against Bush.View image in fullscreen“Jamaal Bowman has his own agenda and refuses to compromise, even with President Biden,” the ad’s narrator says. “Jamaal Bowman has his own agenda, and it’s hurting New York.”That strategy, powered by millions of dollars in ad spending, paid off.5Battle-tested progressives performed betterOmar knew to expect a significant primary challenge this year because she won her 2022 primary against Samuels by just 2 points. This time around, Omar was prepared. She raised roughly five times as much money as Samuels did, and she deployed ads early as a sort of prebuttal against potential attacks on her voting record.Lee similarly secured the narrowest possible victory in her 2022 primary, winning by less than 1 point. Two years later, her margin of victory in the primary had grown by 20 points.View image in fullscreenBowman and Bush were less tested, however. In 2022, Bowman won his primary by 29 points, although he tellingly secured only 54% of the total vote. Bush easily won her primary in 2022, beating her opponent by 43 points and securing 70% of the total vote.This year, it seems that progressives who experienced tougher primary fights in 2022 were better equipped to defend themselves when needed.But Aipac is not only taking aim at Israel’s most strident critics. The millions of dollars poured into defeating Bush and Bowman are a warning shot to other members of Congress and contenders that vocal criticism of Israel or support for Palestinians may come at a political price.Read more of our coverage:

      Pro-Israel money pours in to unseat progressives in congressional races

      Pro-Israel US groups plan $100m effort to unseat progressives over Gaza

      A progressive congresswoman made history in 2022. Can a billionaire stop
      her re-election?

      Pro-Israel groups target Republican House candidate they deem antisemitic

      Pro-Israel groups have set sights on unseating this progressive lawmaker. Will they succeed?

      Race to unseat New York progressive ‘most expensive House primary ever’

      Pro-Israel Pac pours millions into surprise candidate in Maryland primary

      Pro-Israel group pours millions into unseating New York progressive Jamaal Bowman More

    • 138 Shares119 Views

      in US Politics

      Extremist or mainstream: how do Tim Walz’s policies match up globally?

      by

      Within hours of Minnesota’s governor, Tim Walz, being chosen by Kamala Harris to be her Democratic presidential running mate, Donald Trump and team began attacking him as a “dangerously liberal extremist”.Trump surrogates seized on Walz’s record of expanding voting rights for former felons, combatting the climate crisis, and other measures as proof that Harris-Walz would be the “most radical ticket in American history”.If you step back from the melee, and look at his gubernatorial acts through a global lens, they appear anything but extreme. From the perspective of other industrialised nations, what Trump denounces as leftwing radicalism looks little more than basic public welfare provisions.Far from being militant and revolutionary, initiatives such as paid family leave, free college tuition and rudimentary gun controls – all championed by Walz in Minnesota – have long been regarded as middle-of-the-road and unremarkable in large swathes of the world. Through this frame, it is not Walz who is the outlier, but his Republican critics.Here are how some of Walz’s most impactful reforms compare with the rest of the world.Free school lunchesView image in fullscreenWalz’s record: “What a monster! Kids are eating and having full bellies so they can go learn.” That was Walz’s sardonic reply to CNN when he was asked about having introduced free breakfast and lunch for all Minnesota schoolkids. The 2023 measure puts Minnesota among just eight US states that offer school meals at no cost to all children, no matter their family’s income.Around the world: Several countries provide free lunches for their children nationwide. Sweden, Finland and the three Baltic nations all provide meals at no cost for all schoolchildren irrespective of income, and many more European countries provide targeted or subsidised meals. Even a developing country such as India ensures access to lunch for more than 100 million kids daily.“The idea of offering free meals to all students during the school day is hardly new – many countries already do so,” said Alexis Bylander at the Food Research and Action Center, a US anti-hunger organisation. “Numerous studies show the benefits, including improving student attendance, behaviour and academic success.”Combatting the climate crisisView image in fullscreenWalz’s record: In February 2023 Walz signed legislation committing Minnesota to having all its electricity produced by wind, solar and other clean energy sources by 2040 – an even more ambitious timeframe than adopted by California, America’s sustainable energy leader. The legislature also passed more than 40 climate initiatives, including expanding charging infrastructure for electric vehicles and introducing a new code for commercial buildings to cut energy use by 80% by 2036.Around the world: By global standards, Minnesota’s ambitions do not stand out. Some 27 countries have written into law target dates by which they will become net zero – that is, stop loading additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. In the developed world, Finland is leading the way, pledging to be net zero by 2035, and to begin absorbing more carbon dioxide than it produces by 2040. In December, almost 200 countries at the Cop28 climate summit in Dubai agreed to call on all countries to transition away from fossil fuels and for global renewable energy to be tripled by 2030.Child tax creditView image in fullscreenWalz’s record: Last year the governor signed into law a child tax credit program for low-income Minnesota families. The measure sought to fill the hole left by a federal scheme that expired in 2021 after Congress failed to extend it. The Minnesota plan is the most generous of its type in the US, offering $1,750 per child and reaching more than 400,000 children.Around the world: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the forum of high-income democracies, reported in 2018 that 34 of the 35 countries with available information provided their people with some form of family benefit including tax credits. The OECD compared the value of family benefits for two-child families, measured as a percentage of average earnings, across 41 countries and found that the US came in at No 40, with only Turkey being less generous in its support.Basic gun controlsView image in fullscreenWalz’s record: The governor identifies as a proud gun-owner and hunter, and he accepted Harris’s invitation to be her running mate wearing a camo hat. That didn’t stop him in May 2023 enacting a slew of gun safety measures, including requiring all private sales of handguns and semi-automatic rifles to go through an FBI background check that looks for evidence of criminal or mental health risks. The changes also introduced a “red flag law” that allows relatives and other interested parties to intervene when someone is in danger of injuring themselves or others with guns.Around the world: International comparisons show that Americans own vastly more guns than civilians in other rich countries – 121 guns per 100 Americans, compared with five guns per 100 people in the United Kingdom. The number of gun killings per 100,000 people is also vastly higher: 4.12 in the US, 0.04 in the UK.Other countries also have much tougher gun controls that make those introduced by Walz look weak by comparison. Canada requires gun buyers to have a licence to possess or acquire a firearm and first time applicants have to wait a mandatory 28 days; it also imposes mandatory safety training and a ban on military-style rifles that does not exist in the US. The UK also bans some semi-automatic rifles and most handguns. Japan tightly restricts gun ownership, banning most guns other than air guns and a few other special categories and even then requiring owners to submit to annual inspections.Paid family and medical leaveWalz’s record: House File 2, enacted by the governor last year, gave Minnesotans access to up to 20 weeks in every year of partial wages to cover medical leave after a life-changing diagnosis, mental health leave, or time off to care for a new baby. “Paid family and medical leave is about investing in the people that made our state and economy strong in the first place,” Walz said as he signed the bill.Around the world: The US is the only OECD member country without a national law giving all workers access to paid leave for new mothers. Thirty-seven out 38 OECD countries offer national paid maternity leave – the only exception being the US. France, which holds the top spot, allows mothers and fathers to take paid leave until their child is three years old.The US is also one of only six countries with no form of national paid leave covering either family or medical leave in the case of a health concern.Voting rights for former felonsWalz’s record: The governor signed a bill that restores the vote to more than 50,000 Minnesotans who have been convicted of a felony. The Trump campaign denounced the measure as evidence of Walz’s “dangerously liberal agenda”, which is ironic, given that Trump himself, as a convicted felon, will only be able to vote for himself in November thanks to a similar reform in New York.Around the world: A report released by Human Rights Watch (HRW) in June concluded that the US was an “outlier nation in that it strips voting rights from millions of citizens solely on the basis of a criminal conviction”. In 2022, more than 4 million people in the US were disenfranchised on those grounds. By contrast, when HRW surveyed 136 countries around the world, it found that the majority never or rarely deny the vote because of a criminal record, while those with restrictions tend to be much less draconian in their approach than US states. More

    • 125 Shares119 Views

      in US Politics

      Biden and Harris celebrate landmark deal to lower medication prices

      by

      Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on Thursday cast themselves as the champions of American seniors in a David-and-Goliath fight against big pharmaceutical companies, at a joint event touting a landmark deal to lower the cost of prescription drugs.“We finally beat big pharma,” the US president declared, sharing the stage with his vice-president for the first time since he abandoned his re-election bid in late July and Harris replaced him as the Democratic nominee.The event, which came after a morning announcement about new lower drug prices for beneficiaries of Medicare, a government health insurance plan for seniors, was an opportunity to persuade voters that their administration has helped ease costs after years of high inflation. Healthcare, particularly the high cost of prescription drugs, is a top concern for US voters. Biden had held a slight lead over Donald Trump for his platform throughout the year before he dropped out of the race.Harris spoke first, calling Biden “our extraordinary president”, as the crowd, packed into the gymnasium at Prince George’s Community College, rose to its feet to applaud the president. “Thank you, Joe,” they chanted in appreciation of – according to several attendees – his record and his decision to step aside and pass the torch to Harris.Biden called Harris an “incredible partner” and said she would “make one hell of a president”.“We finally addressed the longstanding issue that for years was one of the biggest challenges on this subject, which was that Medicare was prohibited by law from negotiating lower drug prices, and those costs then got passed on to our seniors,” Harris said. “But not any more.”The 10 drugs subject to negotiations, among them widely used blood thinners and diabetes medications, are expected to save $6bn for Medicare, which is a major government health insurance program covering Americans older than 65, and those with certain disabilities, the administration said. Seniors should save $1.5bn directly in out-of-pocket costs.The negotiated prices, which take effect in 2026, were authorized by the Inflation Reduction Act, that Biden emphasized passed without a single Republican vote. The vice-president cast the tie-breaking vote in her role as president of the Senate.“We pay way too much for prescription drugs in America,” the health and human services secretary, Xavier Becerra, said.Before Biden and Harris spoke, administration officials and Maryland politicians celebrated the deal while thrilling the crowd with discreet references to Harris’s candidacy.“President’s a good title for her,” the retiring Maryland senator Ben Cardin winked in his remarks, crediting Harris for helping to pass the Democrats’ sweeping health and climate change bill.Biden, who simultaneously touted his record in office and played pass-the-torch, warned that if given a second term, Trump – who the president mocked as “the guy we’re running against, what’s his name? Donald Dump?” – would repeal Medicare’s authority to negotiate drug prices. He named the sweeping conservative policy agenda, Project 2025, that Trump has sought to distance himself from.“Let me tell you what our Project 2025 is: beat the hell out of them,” Biden said, drawing loud applause.Republican lawmakers have been highly critical of the Biden administration’s move, arguing that government-negotiated drug prices will stifle innovation and result in fewer lifesaving drugs being brought to market.In a joint statement, House Republicans accused Biden of “price-fixing”.“Make no mistake, price fixing has failed in every sector and in every country where it has ever been tried,” the statement by the House speaker, Mike Johnson, and the Republican leadership team said. “The Biden-Harris administration says it wants to lower prices for families, but their prescription drug price fixing scheme has accomplished just two things: driving up health care costs and crushing American innovation in medicine.”View image in fullscreenThe double act attracted a raucous audience, with hundreds of people waiting in the summer heat to glimpse the president’s final act and the vice-president’s ascent.“I’ve been waiting for this moment for a long, long time,” Biden said, noting that the first time he introduced legislation to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices was as a freshman senator shortly after he was elected, in 1972.“For the longest time I was too damn young because I was only 29 when I got elected,” he said. “Now I’m too damn old.”The negotiated prices, which take effect in 2026, are expected to save billions of dollars for the taxpayer-funded Medicare program. But they will lead to direct out-of-pocket savings for only a subset of the millions of older Americans who take the drugs subject to negotiations. Healthcare costs in the US have been rising for several decades, and Americans spend upwards of $13,000 a year on medical services and medications.The law already caps out-of-pocket costs for insulin at $35 a month for Medicare patients. It also calls for a $2,000 cap on out-of-pocket drug spending.Earlier this week, Harris and Biden participated in a Situation Room meeting to discuss the situation in the Middle East. They also appeared together on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews to welcome home US citizens wrongfully detained in Russia.On the campaign trail, the economy and cost of living remain top issues for voters, as Democrats seek to convince them that the president’s economic policies have had an impact on their pocketbooks. Democrats cheered news on Wednesday of easing inflation. Consumer prices rose 2.9% July, falling below 3% for the first time since 2021, new government data showed. But Americans continue to be squeezed by the high cost of rent and groceries.On Friday, Harris will travel to North Carolina to deliver an economic policy speech, during which her campaign said she would call for a federal ban on price gouging on groceries. Though Trump had held an advantage on the economy over Biden, recent polling suggests Harris has erased much of his early lead.Wes Moore, the governor of Maryland, introduced Biden and Harris, referring to them as the 46th and 47th president of the United States, which prompted chants of “48” – a promising sign for the charismatic Democratic rising star.Linda Hunt, 80, said she rarely attended political events, but came to witness history.“I came to pay him respect – that’s primary but I also wanted to see and hear her in person,” she said. “It was historical.” More

    • 125 Shares169 Views

      in US Politics

      Harris backed by major Latino voter group: ‘She understands immigrants’

      by

      The immigrant rights group Make the Road Action is backing Kamala Harris in its first-ever general election presidential endorsement.The 15-year-old organisation dedicated to Latino voter engagement in key swing states including Nevada and Pennsylvania, had previously supported Bernie Sanders in the 2020 presidential primaries but has otherwise avoided endorsing any presidential candidates. The voter mobilization group’s endorsement on Thursday, provided first to the Guardian, comes amid a rush of enthusiasm for Harris’s nascent campaign.“Harris taking on the nomination has added a new kind of energy,” said Theo Oshiro, executive director at Make the Road New York. “Our members are excited. Harris is a woman of colour, and a person who comes from an immigrant family. So they see their children or themselves in this candidate. They feel that she is someone who at least understands where we are coming from.”The decision to make this first-ever general election endorsement came after two meetings with more than 250 members, who debated the stakes of the election before ultimately agreeing to publicly support Harris.The group is concerned about issues including housing affordability, the climate crisis and the US government’s role in Israel’s war on Gaza. But immigration rights were the main focus of deliberations.Painful memories from the Trump administration’s immigration policies, as well as his amped-up anti-immigrant rhetoric and his legally dubious plans for mass deportations and vast detention camps for migrants had upped the pressure. “We are hungry, and ready to fight back,” Oshiro said. “This was one of those moments in history where we had to come together to beat Donald Trump.”Harris will need to shore up support from Latinx communities in swing states, including Pennsylvania and Nevada where Make the Road has a presence, to secure a victory in November. The organisation is on track to knock about 1m doors this election cycle – including half a million in Pennsylvania, and 330,000 in Nevada.Members agreed that Harris has a complicated record on immigration, starting with her warning during her first foreign trip as vice-president to would-be Guatemalan immigrants: “Do not come” across the US-Mexico border. Harris will also have to answer for the Biden administration’s decision to severely restrict asylum at the US southern border.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBut Harris has also shown that she is someone who is willing to work with immigrant rights activists and push for much-needed reforms, Oshiro said. Shortly after the Biden administration announced his asylum restrictions, infuriating many Democrats and Latino leaders who likened them to Trump-era policies, the administration also unveiled a new plan to provide a pathway to citizenship for undocumented spouses of US citizens.“We talked about this deeply, because the Biden administration, and by extension, Kamala Harris as Biden’s vice-president, have not been perfect on immigration,” Oshiro said. “When we’re doing endorsements, we’re not picking a saviour. We’re picking someone we think we can move and push to the right direction.” More

    • 100 Shares99 Views

      in US Politics

      Can Kamala Harris win over disenchanted Latino voters?

      by

      The abrupt substitution of Kamala Harris for Joe Biden as the Democratic party’s presidential nominee has energized two of the party’s bedrock bases of support – pro-choice women and African Americans – along with millions of young voters who felt dismay at the Hobson’s choice posed by two old white guys in the presidential contest.But the country’s estimated 36 million eligible Latino voters could be another story.Their importance in presidential races has been steadily growing over the past 50 years, and Latinos are projected to represent nearly 15% of eligible voters nationwide by November.Historically, Latinos have ranked among the Democratic party’s most reliable sources of votes, in about the same league as Black and Jewish voters. But the party’s once commanding advantage has been shrinking. Hillary Clinton trounced Donald Trump among Latinos nationwide in 2016 by a factor of 81% to 16%, yet four years later the former president upped his share to one out of every four votes cast by Latinos.A slew of prominent Latino politicians and trade unionists have endorsed the vice-president since the president’s withdrawal from the race on 21 July. They include some progressive Democrats who had condemned the terse message Harris had for would-be Latin American immigrants to the United States during a 2021 press conference in Guatemala City: “Do not come.”But it remains unclear whether Latino voters overall will give Harris a big boost in her bid to defeat Trump. For starters, they are diverse in national origin as well as the circumstances and histories of their communities’ immigration.Most southern California Chicanos reflect their state’s liberal tendencies and have little in common ideologically with the majority of Miami’s right-leaning Cuban Americans. Phoenix-based pollster Mike Noble notes that Latino voters whose roots go back to Colombia, Venezuela and other South American countries have been gravitating towards the Republican party over the past four years.Latinos are not yet digging deep into their pockets to support Harris. Two Zoom fundraising calls with Black women and men held on consecutive nights right after Biden bowed out brought in a total of $2.8m. Similar Zoom calls with Latinas and Latinos for Kamala on 24 and 31 July, respectively, posted a combined net haul of $188,000.Axios Latino has been tracking US Latinos’ views of Harris in conjunction with Noticias Telemundo and the Ipsos market research and public opinion firm since the first year of the Biden administration. By the end of 2021, Axios Latino found that 48% of Latinos had a favorable opinion of Harris – but that figure had slumped to 39% by last March. A different survey of Latinos in 10 states found that sentiment persisted in Arizona and Nevada even days after Biden’s fateful debate performance in late June.But a more recent survey of 800 Latino voters living in seven swing states brought Harris and the Democrats some very welcome news. Carried out by the pollster Gary Segura on behalf of the Washington-based Somos Political Action Committee in the immediate aftermath of Biden’s bombshell announcement, the survey gave Harris an impressive 18-percentage-point lead over Trump and surprisingly high favorability ratings among Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada, which have the highest percentage of eligible Latino voters among those swing states.In a separate poll by Equis Research released Wednesday, Harris is still a few points short of Biden’s support from Latino voters in the 2020 election, but is still leading Trump by 19 points among registered Latino voters in the seven most competitive states.Harris and her newly selected running mate, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, addressed rallies in Phoenix and Las Vegas late last week, and a new 30-second TV spot aimed at Latino voters has started airing in both English and Spanish.“Throughout her career, she’s always worked to earn the support of Latino voters and has made core issues like healthcare, childcare and fighting gun violence her focus,” said the campaign’s Hispanic media director, Maca Casado. “Vice-President Harris’s campaign knows Latinos’ political power, and we won’t take their votes for granted.”In Harris’s performance at the polls among Latinos in her native California, she garnered a majority of the Latino vote in both of her successful campaigns for the office of state attorney general, in 2010 and 2014.But Latinos are not expected to play a decisive role in the Golden state or any of the other three states where they are most numerous. Both California and New York are widely considered to be a lock for Democrats, and the same is true of Texas and Florida for Republicans.That leaves Arizona and Nevada, and the outlook for Democrats remains cloudy.CNN exit polling in November 2020 showed Biden beating Trump handily among Arizona Latino voters by a 27-percentage-point margin, thanks in part to folks like Matthew Sotelo. The 37-year-old leader of a non-profit community organization in Phoenix is a registered Democrat who thinks that Biden has done a “solid” job as president. But Sotelo senses a welcome change in the political climate since Harris became the party’s standard bearer.“The energy is different, and despite what the polls say about Harris being in a dead heat with Trump, the momentum is swinging to her side,” says the Arizona-born Mexican American.During Harris’s abortive run for the presidency in 2019, Sotelo did have some reservations about her track record as a prosecutor in San Francisco who sought prison terms for people arrested for possession of small amounts of controlled substances. But he sees her as an open-minded politician.“Do I think she has done a perfect job [on the border]? Absolutely not,” says Sotelo. “But I understand there has been an opportunity for Harris to grow as a leader, and she’ll continue to learn and grow.”One seasoned Latino pollster warns that Republicans have made major inroads in Arizona. “The Democrats have been losing ground there, and a lot of it has to do with the border,” says Eduardo Gamarra, a Florida International University professor of political science who oversaw last month’s poll of Latino voters in 10 states.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionFelix Garcia concurs. Born in the Mexican state of Sonora and a resident of Phoenix since 2000, the 42-year-old business consultant has spent his entire life on either side of the US-Mexican border.“We have so many people from different countries on the border every day, and Kamala has never tried to fix the situation on the border,” says the registered Republican, who describes himself as a moderate in the mold of the late Arizona senator John McCain.Garcia’s issues with Harris do not end with immigration. “We have so many problems with the Biden administration – inflation, Ukraine, Russia, Israel – and she is part of this administration,” he says.During a campaign rally in Arizona last Friday, Harris drew attention to the years she served as California’s attorney general. “I went after the transnational gangs, the drug cartels and human traffickers,” she declared. “I prosecuted them in case after case, and I won.”Mike Noble, a former consultant and manager of Republican legislative campaigns in Arizona, found that many Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada are focused on pocketbook issues like inflation and housing affordability. Those anxieties are not likely to favor Harris.“She’s done a little better in places like the midwest and Pennsylvania, but in the sun belt, Harris is basically starting off in the same position as Biden was,” he says.The ascent of Harris has left David Navarro unmoved. The 27-year-old native of Las Vegas is a registered Democrat who supported Bernie Sanders’ presidential bids in 2016 and 2020 and voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 general election. But he says he is done with both major political parties and will vote for Green party presidential candidate Jill Stein in the fall.“I don’t support their views or any of their policies towards Israel and Gaza, and neither the Democrats nor the Republicans are doing anything to address the causes of inflation, which are corporations and their price increases,” says the systems engineer whose father immigrated from El Salvador. “They don’t value us as Americans, and I don’t want a presidential candidate who is run by the major donors who are billionaires and the corporations.”A scholar from the University of Nevada at Las Vegas (UNLV) cautions that many Latinos in that state, like millions of Americans across the country regardless of their race or ethnicity, do not know all that much about Harris at this juncture beyond her name and current job title.“People know Biden and Trump, but when it comes to Harris, she has a lot more opportunity to shape the narrative, introduce herself and recalibrate things,” says Rebecca Gill, UNLV associate professor of political science. “She has the potential to move her numbers more than Trump or Biden.”In a volatile election cycle already punctuated by an assassination attempt, a debate debacle of historic dimensions, and the nomination of the first Black female presidential candidate of a major political party, Latino voters could spring surprises of their own even in swing states with relatively small Latino populations.“The Hispanic vote is large enough in virtually every state in the US that it could make the difference between winning and losing, including Pennsylvania and Georgia,” notes Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic pollster who specializes in tracking voting trends in the Latino community.“It’s the very reason why so many people are hyper-focused on the Hispanic vote.” More

    • 150 Shares129 Views

      in US Politics

      Tim Walz agrees to vice-presidential debate against JD Vance on 1 October

      by

      Tim Walz, the Minnesota governor and Kamala Harris’s running mate, said he would be willing to debate JD Vance, Ohio senator and Donald Trump’s running mate, on 1 October.Walz, in a post to Twitter/X, was responding to a CBS News statement that said it had invited both vice-presidential candidates to participate in a debate in New York City.CBS said it had presented both campaigns with four dates as options: 17 September, 24 September, 1 October and 8 October.“See you on October 1, JD,” Walz wrote.A statement from the Harris campaign said: “Harris for President has accepted CBS’ invitation to a Vice Presidential Candidate Debate on October 1. Governor Walz looks forward to debating JD Vance – if he shows up.” Vance has not said whether he would accept the date.Walz last week said he “can’t wait to debate the guy — that is, if he’s willing to get off the couch and show up”, in a reference to the baseless but much-shared claim that Vance admitted to having sex with a couch in his memoir.In May, the Biden campaign said the vice-president – then Joe Biden’s running mate – would be willing to debate the eventual Republican vice-presidential nominee on either 23 July or 13 August.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAt the time, the president had not yet stepped aside from the race and endorsed Harris to succeed him as the Democratic candidate for president in this election, and JD Vance had not been announced as Trump’s running mate.Vance’s campaign then declined to commit to a vice-presidential debate before the Democratic national convention on 19 August.Harris and Trump have agreed to participate in their first debate on 10 September, hosted by ABC News.The network said the debate will be moderated by David Muir, the World News Tonight anchor and managing editor, and Linsey Davis, the ABC News Live Prime anchor. More

    • 213 Shares149 Views

      in US Politics

      Trump addresses North Carolina rally after Vance claims Harris has been ‘acting president’ under Biden – live

      by

      Trump says that if he is re-elected, he will sign an executive order on his first day back in the Oval Office to direct “every cabinet secretary and agency head to use every tool and authority at their disposal to defeat inflation and to bring consumer prices rapidly down”.As the New York Times points out, Trump has so far not outlined a plan on how to tackle inflation and bring prices down, other than to boost oil and gas production in the US. It adds:
      The country is already currently producing significantly more crude oil today than it did under the Trump administration.
      Hours before his rally speech,, the latest inflation figures also showed the US annual inflation rate dipped below 3% in July for the first time since 2021.Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have agreed to participate in one debate on 10 September, hosted by ABC News.ABC News confirmed in a statement last week it will “host qualifying presidential candidates to debate on September 10 on ABC. Vice-President Harris and former President Trump have both confirmed they will attend the ABC debate.”The network said the debate will be moderated by World News Tonight anchor and managing editor David Muir and ABC News Live Prime anchor Linsey Davis.In May, the Biden campaign said Kamala Harris – then Joe Biden’s running mate – would be willing to debate the eventual Republican vice-presidential nominee on either 23 July or 13 August.At the time, Biden had not yet stepped aside from the race and JD Vance had not been announced as Donald Trump’s running mate.After Vance was named as Trump’s running mate, his campaign declined to commit to a vice-presidential debate before the Democratic national convention on 19 August.The Trump Vance campaign has not yet agreed to the 1 October debate hosted by CBS News in New York.A Harris Walz campaign spokesperson said the Democratic vice presidential presumptive nominee “looks forward to debating JD Vance — if he shows up.”Walz last week said he “can’t wait to debate the guy — that is, if he’s willing to get off the couch and show up,” in a reference to the baseless, but much-shared claim, that Vance admitted to having sex with a couch in his memoir.Tim Walz, Minnesota governor and Kamala Harris’s running mate, said he would be willing to debate JD Vance, Ohio senator and Donald Trump’s running mate, on 1 October.Walz, in a post to X, was responding to a CBS News statement that said it had invited both vice-presidential candidates to participate in a debate in New York City.CBS said it had presented both campaigns with four dates as options: 17 September, 24 September, 1 October and 8 October.“See you on October 1, JD,” Walz wrote.A statement from the Harris campaign said:
      Harris for President has accepted CBS’ invitation to a Vice Presidential Candidate Debate on October 1. Governor Walz looks forward to debating JD Vance – if he shows up.
      Vance has not said whether he would accept the date.Trump says the US will “drill, baby, drill” for fossil fuels to “bring energy prices down”.Trump has vowed to accelerate oil and gas production, already at record levels, in the US, however, repeating the mantra “drill, baby, drill” at rallies.Trump aims to undo Joe Biden’s policies aimed at lowering carbon emissions, which he has called “insane”, and has directly sought $1bn in campaign donations from oil and gas executives in order to fulfill this agenda as president.But as NBC News’s Sahil Kapur notes, under Biden’s tenure, the US has continued to produce and export the most crude oil out of any country:Trump notes that Kamala Harris previously opposed fracking, and claims that she will ban fracking if she is elected in the November election.Harris “will absolutely ban fracking”, Trump says.Harris had previously, as a candidate for the 2020 presidential nomination, vowed to ban fracking, as well as back a Green New Deal, a progressive resolution to shift the US to 100% renewable energy, and new government dietary guidelines to encourage people to reduce their meat eating.But her campaign has said she will not seek to ban fracking if she becomes president. Since becoming vice-president, Harris has followed the Biden administration approach that allows fracking, although the Environmental Protection Agency has drawn up rules to limit the emission of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that often escapes during fracking.Trump says that if he is re-elected, he will sign an executive order on his first day back in the Oval Office to direct “every cabinet secretary and agency head to use every tool and authority at their disposal to defeat inflation and to bring consumer prices rapidly down”.As the New York Times points out, Trump has so far not outlined a plan on how to tackle inflation and bring prices down, other than to boost oil and gas production in the US. It adds:
      The country is already currently producing significantly more crude oil today than it did under the Trump administration.
      Hours before his rally speech,, the latest inflation figures also showed the US annual inflation rate dipped below 3% in July for the first time since 2021.Trump says his interview with Elon Musk “was one of the most successful shows ever done”.The interview on Twitter/X, which is owned by Musk and began more than 40 minutes late, was plagued by technical issues that initially prevented many users from watching the conversation.Here’s a review of that interview by our Washington DC bureau chief, David Smith:Trump says the US was respected before but that now “we’re disrespected all over the world.”He says the Russian president Vladimir Putin, Chinese president Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un all respected the US. Now “we’re being laughed at,” he says.Trump says that as president, he “passed the largest tax cuts in history, the largest regulation cuts in history”.In reality, Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was not the largest tax cut in US history and workers barely benefited from them. More

    • 63 Shares159 Views

      in US Politics

      As Harris soars, Trump sulks

      by

      Hello there,Who knew that all Democrats needed to do was kick their ailing incumbent president off the ticket? Well, plenty of people. But few could have predicted just how successfully Kamala Harris and Uncle Tim have been relentlessly saturating the key swing states, speaking to huge crowds and rising in the polls.Trump, for his part, is floundering, trapped somewhere between rage and inertia. The former president held just one campaign event in the last seven days, and seems to spend most of his time complaining on his Truth Social website, with a breather to repeat his talking points to a wealthy idiot on X. More about Trump’s bad week after the headlines.Here’s what you need to knowView image in fullscreen1. Conventional thinkingThousands of Democrats will sweep into Chicago next week for the party’s national convention, where Harris will be officially anointed as their nominee for president. Despite Democrats’ checkered history of holding conventions in Chicago, the event will probably have a celebratory feel as Harris lays out her vision for the US to what will be a very friendly crowd. Barack Obama will be among the speakers, and the Guardian will be there with live updates.2. Abortion on the ballotA constitutional amendment protecting the right to abortion will be on the ballot in Arizona in November, something that could increase Democratic turnout in the swing state. “Democrats are hoping that enthusiasm for the measures will boost turnout among their base,” my colleague Carter Sherman writes. In total, voters in at least seven states (also including Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada and South Dakota) will decide referendums on abortion rights this year.3. A Squad saveIlhan Omar, the Minnesota congresswoman and member of the progressive group “the Squad”, won her primary on Tuesday night, and will probably be re-elected to the House in November. Omar defeated Don Samuels, a former Minneapolis council member, and avoided the fate of fellow Squad members Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman, both of whom lost their primaries this year. Pro-Israel lobbying groups spent millions to defeat Bush and Bowman after they criticized Israel’s war on Gaza, but despite Omar also being a critic of Israel’s actions, those groups stayed out of the Minnesota primary.The strategy of being angry on the internetView image in fullscreenHow about that Harralz momentum, huh? Kamala Harris and Tim Walz hit the ground running last week, and they’ve barely stopped since, holding events in five states, continuing to call people weird, and generally reinvigorating a previously weary Democratic base.There’s evidence that the Harris vibes tour is yielding results, because for the first time in absolutely ages, we’re seeing polling that shows Trump not winning the election. Before Biden dropped out, Trump was leading him by 3.1% nationally, and the Republican was ahead in every swing state. Harris now has a slight lead nationally, and has closed the gap on Trump in places like Michigan and Wisconsin. Each party typically experiences a popularity boost after their convention, so the momentum is likely to continue – for a little bit, anyway.
      Trump held just one campaign rally, in a state that will have no impact on the election
      Judging by how sulky Trump is being, it is clear he is worried. But it’s less clear what Trump is actually doing to combat the Harris surge. While Harris and Walz have been bounding across stages in front of thousands of people, Trump seems to have been mostly just sitting in the Florida private members’ club that he calls home.In the past week, the one-term former president has held a waffling conversation with Elon Musk on X, hosted a confusing press conference in Florida, ranted incessantly on Truth Social, and held just one campaign rally, in a state that will have no impact on the election. Oh, and it also emerged that Trump has been traveling around the country on the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s former airplane, which if a Democratic candidate had done would be all the Republicans would talk about.Trump’s chat with Musk on Tuesday was supposed to give his campaign a shot in the arm – a cosy natter with a friendly ally. But once the conversation began – after a 40-minute delay due to technical difficulties – people’s main takeaways were a) this is very boring and b) why is Trump slurring his words? He did indeed seem to be struggling to pronounce the “s” in a number of words, with the term “groceries” proving particularly problematic. His campaign initially denied there was any problem – “must be your ears”, a spokesperson said – although Trump later blamed “modern day equipment, and cellphone technology”. Still, for a man who has a long history of mocking perceived physical weakness, the discussion will have been unwelcome.
      The strategy of being angry on the internet hasn’t typically proven to be a winner in elections
      Worse still, Trump’s admiring comments about Musk firing workers prompted the United Auto Workers labor union to file a federal labor charge. Trump didn’t address that in the more than 20 messages he posted to his own social media website on Tuesday, although he did describe Harris as “a joke”, complained about polling, and at one point declared: “I absolutely HATE the fake news media.” The strategy of being angry on the internet hasn’t typically proven to be a winner in elections, with the notable exception of 2016.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBut Harris’s supporters will be aware that there is a long way to go until election day on 5 November (even if, in some states, people can begin voting in September). The momentum surely cannot last. She and Walz are fresh faces at the moment, but Republicans will spend hundreds of millions to attack them, and Trump will surely emerge from his bunker eventually.Harry Enten, a polling expert at CNN, pointed out on Tuesday that Trump was underestimated in surveys in 2016 and 2020, and said Trump’s favorability among Americans was higher than it was in those two elections. So nothing is decided yet – but Democrats at least have several reasons to be optimistic.Out and about: New OrleansView image in fullscreenThe Guardian joined Joe Biden on Air Force One on Tuesday en route to New Orleans, where the president doled out millions in new research grants for a policy program he created after the death of his eldest son, Beau, from brain cancer at age 46.“We know that all families touched by cancer are in a race against time,” Biden told a crowd at Tulane University.Now that Biden is no longer running for re-election, he seems to be devoting the final months of his presidency to his passion projects, including promoting his “moonshot” cancer-fighting initiative.Lie of the week: Sea level rise is fineView image in fullscreenThe sea will only “rise one-eighth of an inch in the next 400 years”, and in any case create “more oceanfront property”, Donald Trump claimed to Elon Musk on Tuesday.He was certainly wrong on the first count. According to Nasa the global average sea level has risen a total of about 4in in the past 30 years alone. And the rate of increase is accelerating.And while more oceanfront property may indeed by created, lots of current oceanfront property will not survive: rising sea levels hit low-lying coastal areas the hardest. More