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      Will Biden drop out? Key questions on his presidential campaign

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      As he addressed reporters at the conclusion of the Nato conference on Thursday, Joe Biden sent a defiant message to his critics: I’m not going anywhere. Despite demands from dozens of Democratic lawmakers that he withdraw from the presidential race following his disastrous debate performance, Biden argued he was the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump in November.“I think I’m the most qualified person to run for president. I beat him once, and I will beat him again,” Biden said. “There’s a long way to go in this campaign, and so I – I’m just going to keep moving.”That message did not assuage some skeptics in Biden’s party, as three more House Democrats called on the president to drop out in the hours after the press conference. Biden and his team have not yet quieted critics’ concerns, but the president’s detractors have few options beyond their public pressure campaign to get him to step aside.With just one month left before the Democrats convene in Chicago for their convention, the party has limited time to determine who will be on the top of the ticket in November.Here’s what you need to know about Biden’s path forward:How many Democratic lawmakers are calling on Biden to drop out of the race?At least 19 congressional Democrats – 18 House members and one senator – have publicly called on Biden to withdraw from the race as of Friday morning. Although those lawmakers represent a relatively small fraction of the more than 200 Democrats on Capitol Hill, their damning statements have intensified scrutiny of Biden and his ability to serve another four years as president.“I understand why President Biden wants to run,” Senator Peter Welch wrote in a Washington Post op-ed. “He saved us from Donald Trump once and wants to do it again. But he needs to reassess whether he is the best candidate to do so. In my view, he is not.”What do voters think about Biden’s candidacy?A clear majority of voters believe Biden should step aside, but Democrats specifically have more mixed views on the subject. According to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released Thursday, 67% of Americans, including 56% of Democrats, say Biden should step aside and let someone else run for president.In comparison, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last Tuesday showed 32% of Democrats saying Biden should withdraw from the race. If the proportion of Democrats calling on Biden to drop out continues to grow, the president’s already vulnerable position in the party could become untenable.That being said, the concerns about Biden’s fitness for office do not appear to have fundamentally reshaped the race for the presidency. The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll showed Biden and Trump each capturing 46% of the vote, a result that is essentially unchanged since April. A hypothetical match-up between Trump and the vice-president, Kamala Harris, also appears to be a virtual tie, with 49% of voters supporting Harris and 47% backing Trump.Has Biden given any indication that he plans to drop out?No. Biden has instead planned a campaign blitz across the coming days to demonstrate his ability to deliver a convincing pitch for re-election. On Monday, he will visit Austin, Texas, to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act, and he will also sit down for an interview with the NBC News anchor Lester Holt.“I’m determined on running, but I think it’s important that I allay fears by letting them see me out there,” Biden said on Thursday. “I’m going out in the areas where we think we can win, where we can persuade people to move our way.”Can Biden’s critics force him out of the race?They have few options to do so. Presidential primary voting has already concluded in all US states, so the delegates going to the Democratic convention are the only people who can nominate another candidate at this point. But of the roughly 4,000 delegates bound for Chicago, nearly 3,900 of them are pledged to Biden because of his strong performance in the primaries.Biden said on Thursday that the delegates pledged to him can “do whatever they want” at the convention, but it is a bit more complicated than that.Elaine Kamarck, a member of the Democratic national committee rules committee and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, notes that current party rules state: “Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”Kamarck wrote on Thursday: “Few, if any, delegates to recent conventions have ever sought to test [the rule]. But if worries about President Biden’s ability to run and to serve continue to grow, along with fears of handing the presidency over to Donald Trump, some delegates may find themselves tempted to vote for someone else.”How long does Biden have to decide if he will stay in the race?The Democratic convention begins 19 August, but the party may formally nominate a candidate before then. Before Biden’s poor debate performance, the Democratic National Committee already planned to virtually nominate a candidate to meet an Ohio ballot deadline of 7 August, but no date has been officially announced for the roll call vote.Because of the Ohio deadline, Democrats have even less time than it might appear to determine who their nominee will be.What would happen if Biden did step aside?If Biden withdraws from the presidential race, the more than 4,000 Democratic delegates will need to nominate another candidate to run against Trump in November. The winning candidate will need to secure the support of a majority of delegates to capture the nomination.Harris would enter the nomination fight with an early advantage, as she has the largest national profile of any potential candidate and some Democrats have already named her as their preferred option. But Harris would not automatically become the nominee if Biden steps aside, as she would still need to win the necessary number of delegates. Other names floated as potential replacements for Biden include the California governor, Gavin Newsom, Michigan governor, Gretchen Whitmer, and Illinois governor, JB Pritzker.Asked about Harris on Thursday, Biden said he had the utmost confidence in his vice-president, but he reminded reporters that any other Democratic candidate would enter the election with minimal time to introduce themselves and deliver a winning message to voters.“I believe I’m the best qualified to govern, and I think I’m the best qualified to win,” Biden said. “There are other people who could beat Trump, too, but it’s awful hard to start from scratch.” More

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      Wisconsin progressives take battle to Trump – but warn Biden must do more

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      Four years ago, progressives in the crucial battleground state of Wisconsin were energized about the presidential race, feeling ready and eager to elect Joe Biden and end four years of Donald Trump’s chaotic leadership.This year, the nominees for president remain the same, but much has changed. Before Biden’s damaging debate performance, leaders of progressive groups were already combating disillusionment and disengagement among many of their supporters, who sharply criticized the president’s response to the war in Gaza. Now, with days left before Republicans arrive in Milwaukee to nominate Trump for the third time, the groups’ leaders are confronting a fractured Democratic party wrestling with the question of whether to replace their presumptive nominee.Despite the immense challenges ahead, progressive organizers are determined to convince voters of the dire stakes of this election and turn out a winning coalition in November. They believe Trump’s re-election poses an existential threat to American democracy, while recognizing that Biden needs to do a better job of showing voters how he will use his second term to improve their lives.Wisconsin progressives have planned counter-programming to the Republican convention, with a number of groups participating in a march on the convention scheduled for Monday. But they have also been working for months to prepare for all of the November elections, not limited to the presidential race.They have little margin for error. In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by just 0.6 points, or roughly 20,000 votes out of the 3.3m cast, and he appears to be in a much more perilous position today. An AARP poll conducted in the days after the debate showed Biden trailing Trump by six points in Wisconsin.“We’re in a very tough predicament,” said William Walter, executive director of the progressive group Our Wisconsin Revolution. “The progressive left recognizes that stopping Donald Trump at all costs is imperative. But we want the Democratic party to help us in in our goals because they are aligned.”Early warning signsWhen the state held its presidential primaries in April, prominent progressive leaders encouraged primary voters to cast a ballot for “uninstructed” as a means of protesting Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza, an effort inspired by the similar Listen to Michigan campaign. Although Biden won the Wisconsin Democratic primary with 89% of the vote, nearly 50,000 voters – more than twice the president’s margin of victory in 2020 – voted uninstructed.The political arm of Voces de la Frontera, an immigrant and workers’ rights group, was among those that endorsed the uninstructed campaign. Christine Neumann-Ortiz, executive director of Voces de la Frontera, described the campaign as an effective mechanism to send a message to the White House.“We were simply a conduit to that message that people who were key to defeating Trump in 2020, this is how they’re feeling,” Neumann-Ortiz said. “They want to see something done.”The protest vote in Wisconsin – as well as other states like Michigan and Minnesota – was one of the early warning signs of Biden’s struggles to unite and energize his party. Those vulnerabilities have now taken center stage in the aftermath of the debate.“In 2020, with frankly the horrors of the Trump presidency still fresh in people’s minds, I think people were fired up,” said Emily Park, co-executive director of the climate advocacy group 350 Wisconsin Action. “Climate activism, racial justice activism, all sorts of progressive causes had been sort of newly reinvigorated. So I think that brought a huge sense of energy to the 2020 election. And this year, I think people are just not inspired.”Angela Lang, executive director of the Milwaukee-based group Black Leaders Organizing for Communities (Bloc), noted that many of voters’ top concerns remain unchanged since 2020. But regarding the cost of living, voters’ concerns have only intensified, as US prices have increased by roughly 20% since 2019. The rate of inflation has slowed significantly in recent months, as the 12-month consumer price index now stands at 3%, but many are not yet feeling the difference.“Things are expensive. People are still struggling despite the job numbers and things like that. They don’t see themselves reflected in those numbers,” Lang said. “When folks are often told this is the most important election of your lifetime over and over and over, and they’re not necessarily seeing the tangible changes in their lifetime, people start to get a little bit frustrated by that and start to wonder, ‘Do I continue to show up?’”That disillusionment could have ramifications far beyond the presidential race. Wisconsin is home to one of the most competitive Senate elections this year, as incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin fights to hold on to her seat, and the Republican representative Derrick Van Orden faces a competitive race in the third congressional district. Wisconsinites will also have the opportunity to elect state legislators with a new set of maps that give Democrats their first real opportunity in more than a decade to take control of a chamber.“If people are so disillusioned that they’re just not going to show up to the polls in November at all, then we lose our chance to make serious progress in our state legislature, which could mean critical things for the state of Wisconsin on all sorts of issues,” Park said. “It’s not just about the White House.”Democracy and bodily autonomy on the ballotDespite voters’ apparent lack of enthusiasm, their thoughts and fears about a second Trump term have grown more specific since 2020. As he has knocked on voters’ doors this year, Walter, who served as a delegate for Bernie Sanders in 2020, has heard more people express concern about the continuation of democracy if Trump wins the election.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionHe pointed to recent comments from Kevin Roberts, president of the rightwing Heritage Foundation, to underscore the threat. Roberts told a radio host last week: “We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.”Walter said: “They’re making it abundantly clear what their goals are for a second administration, and it’s terrifying. And a lot of people, I think, really are starting to recognize that.”Abortion access has also moved to the top of many voters’ priority lists. The race between Biden and Trump represents the first presidential election since Roe v Wade was overturned in 2022, and Democrats predict that Republicans will enact a national abortion ban if they have the opportunity.“That’s one thing that I hear quite often is, quite literally, democracy and bodily autonomy are on the ballot,” Walter said.Those high stakes have only increased the pressure on Biden since his poor debate performance, and progressive leaders in Wisconsin are conflicted about how to move forward. Some prominent progressive lawmakers, including representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar, have said Democrats need to stick with Biden and focus on beating Trump, but doubts linger.Progressive leaders in Wisconsin emphasized that Biden has notched some important legislative wins, including the bipartisan infrastructure law and the Inflation Reduction Act, but they expressed varying opinions on whether the president should continue his campaign.“My feeling is that that conversation is only going to stop at the [Democratic] convention. And it is true that we do have primary elections, and people voted for Biden as the candidate,” Neumann-Ortiz said. “Ultimately, in this election, the conversation needs to be about, how can we build a strong, diverse, united front against the threat of a candidate that is promising dictatorship on day one?”Even as Democrats continue to squabble over Biden’s future, Wisconsin groups like Voces de la Frontera and Bloc remain focused on communicating the danger of Trump’s potential return to voters.“I think at the end of the day, our community, we know what’s at stake,” Lang said. “Folks end up coming around [in] September, October, and that’s usually when they start to get plugged in and engaged. I will caution, though, that if we’re still having the same questions and the same conversations around that time, I think it’s a little bit more of a red flag.”Walter warned that, if Biden chooses to continue on and loses to Trump in November, his defeat will become legacy-defining.“We won’t be able to talk about the Inflation Reduction Act. We won’t be able to talk about his massive labor wins,” Walter said.“Instead, the narrative in every history book will be on the last six months before the election – how we saw that he wasn’t as sharp as he may have been five years ago, that he didn’t have what it takes to beat Donald Trump. And because of that, we lost the American experiment.” More

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      Biden to speak at Nato summit in high-stakes press conference – live updates

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      Hello and welcome to our coverage of the Nato summit in Washington DC, where all eyes will be on Joe Biden this evening as he steps up to the lectern and answers questions from journalists in a critical test after his disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump a fortnight ago.Biden is scheduled to begin speaking at 6:30pm EST to close out the three-day Nato summit in his first solo news conference in eight months, amid growing calls for him to step aside his Democratic party’s presumptive nominee.The US president’s performance tonight will be closely watched by his aides and advisers, who have reportedly been discussing how to persuade him to leave the presidential race, as well as the Trump campaign who reportedly want him to stay.We’ll stream Biden’s press conference here and bring you more news coming out of the Nato summit.Earlier today, the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, was asked about his meeting with Joe Biden at the White House.Biden was “on good form” and went through serious issues at pace during their first bilateral talks, Starmer answered.The British prime minister said his personal view, having spent almost an hour in private talks with Biden and attended a dinner for Nato leaders at the White House, was that the US president was mentally agile.Asked in a round of broadcast interviews whether criticism of Biden was misguided, the prime minister said:
      Yes … my own personal view is he was on good form. I was very keen obviously to discuss Ukraine, but there were many other issues that we got through.
      Downing Street said Starmer had not raised the issue of Biden’s health or his future plans in their meeting, but reporters asked him about media speculation that Biden could have early dementia symptoms. Starmer said:
      No, we had a really good bilateral yesterday. We were billed for 45 minutes, we went on for the best part of an hour. We went through a huge number of issues at pace, he was actually on really good form.
      Joe Biden did not hear any concerns from world leaders during the Nato summit regarding his health or re-election campaign challenges, the White House said.The White House’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said leaders instead offered “a drumbeat of praise for the United States, but also for President Biden personally for what he’s done to strengthen Nato”, Associated Press reported.Biden was praised not just for his time as president but for his decades in politics, Sullivan said.Sullivan, who helped prepare Biden ahead of the disastrous debate performance, said he did not “have concerns” about the president’s health, adding:
      He said he had a bad night.
      Hello and welcome to our coverage of the Nato summit in Washington DC, where all eyes will be on Joe Biden this evening as he steps up to the lectern and answers questions from journalists in a critical test after his disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump a fortnight ago.Biden is scheduled to begin speaking at 6:30pm EST to close out the three-day Nato summit in his first solo news conference in eight months, amid growing calls for him to step aside his Democratic party’s presumptive nominee.The US president’s performance tonight will be closely watched by his aides and advisers, who have reportedly been discussing how to persuade him to leave the presidential race, as well as the Trump campaign who reportedly want him to stay.We’ll stream Biden’s press conference here and bring you more news coming out of the Nato summit. More

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      Biden’s position tenuous amid reports campaign secretly testing Harris’s popularity

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      Joe Biden’s position appeared shaky on Thursday, amid reports that his aides and advisers were discussing how to persuade him to leave the presidential race while his own campaign was secretly testing Kamala Harris’s popularity, suggesting it was preparing for that very scenario.With the US president scheduled to face journalists at a potentially pivotal news conference marking the end of Nato’s 75th anniversary summit, two separate New York Times reports suggested his efforts to keep his candidacy afloat were close to foundering.The Times reported on its website that his campaign’s analytics team was quietly testing the strength of Harris, the vice-president, among voters in a match-up against Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee.Biden has consistently argued that he has the best chance of beating Trump, citing polling evidence.A separate report suggested that unnamed longtime aides and advisers to the president had become convinced in recent days that his campaign to beat Trump in the election was doomed and were trying to find ways of persuading him of their argument.The story was met by denial by the White House and the Biden campaign, which respectively called it “unequivocally not true” and “patently false”.But the picture of diminishing support for the president even within his own camp was further strengthened by an NBC report suggesting that three people involved in his re-election campaign had written off his chances.“He needs to drop out,” the network’s website quoted one Biden campaign official as saying. “He will never recover from this.”The glut of damaging stories followed a number of Democratic party members calling on him to step down and as senators from the party prepared to meet key members of Biden’s staff at the White House to air their concerns about his electability following last month’s disastrous debate performance with Trump.On Thursday afternoon, three more House Democrats called for Biden to withdraw, Greg Stanton of Arizona, Ed Case of Hawaii and Brad Schneider of Illinois.Schneider said in a statement: “I fear if he fails to make the right choice, our democracy will hang in the balance,” while Stanton posted a statement on Twitter/X effusively praising Biden’s record and his character but saying he should step aside as the nominee amid the need to save US democracy from the “existential threat” of Donald Trump.The Nato-related press conference set for Thursday evening was seen as crucial as a test to compare Biden’s performance with the dire one he displayed in the debate, followed by a less than convincing performance in a TV interview with ABC the following week.The event is the kind of unscripted set piece that Biden’s staff stand accused of shielding him from, and any repeat of the calamitous debate display could turn the steady trickle of public calls for Biden to stand aside into a flood.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionSome of Biden’s most loyal acolytes at the top of the Democratic party have issued less than full-throated statements of support in recent days.Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader, who has repeated the mantra “I’m for Joe” throughout the crisis, was reported to have signalled openness to having the president replaced at the top of the presidential ticket.Axios reported that Schumer had been taking close account of the feelings of party donors and fellow senators in the 12 days since Biden’s meltdown in the 27 June debate, when he plunged the viability of his candidacy into doubt by abjectly failing to defend his own policies or counter Trump’s lies.“As I have made clear repeatedly publicly and privately, I support President Biden and remain committed to ensuring Donald Trump is defeated in November,” Schumer said, in comments that fell short of a ringing endorsement. On Wednesday, Peter Welch of Vermont became the first Democratic senator to publicly tell Biden to step aside. Nine members of the House of Representatives have already done so.“He saved us from Donald Trump once and wants to do it again. But he needs to reassess whether he is the best candidate to do so. In my view, he is not,” Welch wrote in a Washington Post opinion piece.The president retains the support of Democratic governors, senators in the vital swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, the Black Congressional caucus, key progressive House members including Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, and many others.But the meeting between senators and Biden staff on Thursday will take place against the backdrop of backstage manoeuvring. The former House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, added pressure on Biden on Wednesday by telling MSNBC that it was up to the president to decide and “we are encouraging him to make that decision”. Behind the scenes, Pelosi has reportedly told Democratic Congress members that Biden cannot win the election and should step aside, according to Politico.She has also reportedly encouraged Democrats in swing districts threatened with losing their seats in November to do whatever is necessary to defend themselves, including calling on Biden to stand aside, while suggesting to others in safer districts that they should approach the White House directly with their concerns.Crucially, she is also said to have advised members to wait until the end of today’s Nato gathering before going public. Some Congress members were understood to have drafted statements, ready to release as soon as the gathering of international leaders left Washington.A fresh Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll showed 56% of Democratic voters agreeing that Biden should end his campaign, against 42% who said he should stay put – a finding that undermined the president’s assertion that the effort to oust him was led by “elites” in the party.Biden has held fewer news conferences with journalists in his three and a half years in office than any president since Ronald Reagan.A previous press conference at the White House in February to counter criticisms by Robert Hur, a special prosecutor who criticised the president’s “poor memory”, backfired somewhat when Biden referred to the Egyptian president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, as “the president of Mexico”. More

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      Will Biden’s loss of celebrity support make a real difference?

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      The last two US presidential election cycles haven’t been especially notable in the already-marginal world of celebrity endorsements. Both 2016 and 2020 pitted a well-established Democrat with heavy ties to previous administrations against a fringe-gone-mainstream Republican candidate whose own previous occupation was as a celebrity, and not a particularly hip one. So it wasn’t surprising to see an even more dramatic divide between mainstream celebs endorsing the Democrat (or saying nothing more controversial than a bland “vote!”) and a bunch of C- and-D-listers stumping for Trump, as they might any number of faulty late-night infomercial products.This might well have gone similarly in 2024, if not for Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in the first presidential debate a few weeks ago. Now a less lopsided divide has formed as a form of anti-endorsement has come in: celebrities who have called upon Joe Biden to step aside from the presidential race and let a younger candidate attempt to take the Democrats across the finish line.At first, it was an interestingly eclectic group, notable for aligning the likes of Michael Moore – who isn’t exactly the core constituency for a career politician fixated on bipartisan cooperation in the first place – with the likes of classic limousine liberals like Rob Reiner and Stephen King. This suggested some real traction to the idea that Biden should drop out, but was still largely limited to figures who seem a bit more likely to hop on social media and fire off some opinions. More writers than actors, in other words; same goes for figures with mock-pundit experience, like Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart. So there was particular headline-news grabbiness when George Clooney – who recently attended a Biden fundraiser – wrote a New York Times op-ed saluting the man’s service and integrity while also arguing that it was time for Joe to go. It may be the most talked-about celeb endorsement (or anti-endorsement) since Taylor Swift came out for Biden (and, probably more importantly, against Trump) shortly before the 2020 election. It even prompted a Biden response, with the president claiming – somewhat nonsensically – that Clooney, only being at the fundraiser he referred to for a brief period, couldn’t have gotten a proper impression of the president’s acuity.View image in fullscreenThough he doesn’t give off the glamour of his former running mate Barack Obama, Biden has long been able to claim some degree of default and/or anti-Trump A-list support: Julia Roberts attended the same fundraiser as Clooney earlier this year, while Robert De Niro, an outspoken critic of fellow New Yorker Trump, narrated a campaign ad, though this seems likely to stem from De Niro’s genuine – and, frankly, delightful! – seething hatred for Trump more than some personal allegiance to Biden. (In the meantime, who has been one of Trump’s biggest boosters on Insta? You guessed it: Frank Stallone.) Dwayne Johnson, who long identified as some manner of Republican, endorsed Biden late in the 2020 race. Earlier this year, though, Johnson announced that he wouldn’t be endorsing any candidates for 2024, Biden apparently not having done enough to help change the hierarchy of power in the DC Universe.It would be easy to see a shift like that as evidence of eroding support for Biden, and it probably is; having a major star specifically say, months and months before the election, that they don’t endorse either candidate (implying that this is unlikely to change), when it would be easy enough to simply say nothing or bide his time, feels unusual – just as it’s unusual for another major star to write an op-ed suggesting that a presidential candidate from his party must step down for the good of the country. But it’s also a sign of how micro-targeted a celebrity niche has become – maybe by force – in the social media era, where even silence has begun to seem like a tacit statement, rather than PR-managed decorum. Biden’s once-solid base of A-listers still skews on the older side, reflecting a time when endorsing a candidate felt at once simpler and less conspicuous. That’s true, too, of celebrities who have called for Biden to drop out: Michael Douglas and John Cusack are big names, but they’re sure not south of 50. Younger celebrities, mirroring younger demographics in general, may not be especially impressed with Biden’s handling of Israel and attendant failure to stop the bloodshed – which means they may not have been endorsing him to begin with.Of course, there’s a certain tempest-in-a-designer-teapot quality to tracking the whims of celebrity endorsements, which at least some of the general public probably views with skepticism – those clueless stars and their pet causes! George Clooney isn’t casting his vote in a swing state – or, for that matter, against Joe Biden, if it comes down to it. Biden could even argue that the shifting tastes of celebrities don’t interest him, as he’s maintained the image of a folksy, get-it-done underdog for much of his political career, even after ascending to the vice-presidency. Courting celebrity? Isn’t that a Trumpian hunger to begin with? Yet big celebrities can help with big-donor fundraising – and smaller ones arguably have bigger platforms than ever before. (John Cusack movies may not bring a million-plus people to the box office in a weekend, if they’re even released theatrically at all. But that’s his social-media audience.)From Hollywood’s love of Obama to Trump’s resurgence beginning on NBC to the sheer number of meme-based campaign posts, celebrity and politics have become more entwined than ever. Biden may not need celebrities to win, or for his sense of worth. But he does need actual support, and Clooney’s op-ed helped make him seem more like a cause than a candidate. More

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      Only one group can actually persuade Biden to exit the race: his rich donors | Robert Reich

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      At a rally in Madison, Wisconsin, last Friday, Joe Biden said: “Some folks … are trying to push me out of the race.”To whom was the president referring?Certainly not to Donald Trump or the Republicans, who have been uncharacteristically silent about the whole question of whether Biden should drop out. They couldn’t push him out of the Democratic race anyway.Nor was he referring to Democrats in Congress. Almost all have been publicly supportive of Biden. Only eight House Democrats out of 213 have called for him to drop out, and just one Senate Democrat has gone that far.Was Biden referring to the leaders of the Democratic party? Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, the Senate majority leader and House Democratic leader, respectively, have been supportive of Biden, at least in public.He couldn’t have been talking about the Democratic National Committee. Not a single DNC member has called for Biden to exit from the race.Was Biden talking about the elite punditry on cable TV and on the op-ed pages of the New York Times and the Washington Post – almost all of who have called for Biden to drop out?Doubtful. The chattering class has little or no influence on the preferences of average voters. How many people at that Wisconsin rally avidly read opinion pieces in the New York Times?Did Biden have in mind some collection of gray-bearded leaders of America – a group of unofficial elder statesmen, perhaps including Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, whose counsel carries extraordinary influence behind the scenes?There is no longer any such group. (I recall a time decades ago when a bipartisan cabal of old hands held significant sway behind the scenes of official Washington – people like Lloyd Cutler, George Shultz and Jim Baker. But in the hyper-partisanship of today’s Washington, no such group exists.)The fact is, only one small group of people in the US has the power to push Joe Biden out of the race. Who are they? The major donors to the Democratic party.They’re the ones Biden is angry with.On Monday morning, Biden called into MSNBC’s Morning Joe and railed against the big-ticket donors who have been pushing him to withdraw.“I’m getting so frustrated with the elites … the elites of the party,” he said on the air. “I don’t care what the millionaires think.”Bingo. It was the first time any modern president has admitted that the elites of the party are the millionaires (and billionaires) who fund it, which gives them extraordinary political power – perhaps enough to push Biden out of the race.In truth, the Democratic party is little more than a national fundraising machine, as is the Republican party.I’m not blaming Biden. He’s simply stating the truth. America’s donor class has become extraordinarily powerful in both parties.Biden and his top aides aren’t hiding this reality. To the contrary, they’re actively portraying the effort to remove him as driven by the party’s wealthy elite.This may be an exaggeration. The polling data I’ve seen suggests that concerns about Biden’s age and evident decline worry a wide swathe of the public.But Biden continues to court the party’s major donors. Soon after Biden shared with the hosts of Morning Joe his frustrations with the moneyed elite of the party, he held a video conference call with that very same elite.In that call, according to the New York Times, he told them he was staying in the race. He also told them that they had to shift the focus of the campaign away from him and on to Trump.Telling them to shift their focus seemed to offer further evidence that the party’s biggest donors were responsible for focusing on Biden’s age and his stumbles since the debate. And it was they who must shift their focus to Trump.Over the last week and a half, I’ve been immersed in countless discussions about whether Biden should drop out of the race. I expect you have as well.But those discussions are irrelevant. You and I aren’t going to persuade Biden to stay in or drop out of the race.Only one group is going to persuade him – the Democratic party’s biggest donors. If they decide to stop funding the Biden campaign, Biden has no chance of winning.It’s rapidly becoming a game of chicken. If the biggest donors stop funding Biden and Biden stays in the race notwithstanding, he clearly loses. Yet so do we all.Biden’s efforts over the last few days confirm much of what I’ve increasingly observed over the years. The real political power in the US, regardless of party, lies in the hands of big money.
      Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is a professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His newest book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com
      This article was amended on 11 July 2024 to update the number of members of Congress who have called for Biden to drop out More