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      Republicans want to rig the midterm elections. Will they succeed? | Moira Donegan

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      If one mark of an autocratic regime is the meaningfulness of elections, you can make an argument that the United States has been backsliding away from a properly democratic form of government for a long time. In 2013’s Shelby county decision, the US supreme court gutted the 1965 Voting Rights Act, clearing the way for states to impose a slew of restrictions on the franchise that were previously banned as part of an effort to prevent the re-establishment of Jim Crow; voting quickly became more burdensome and onerous in many Republican-controlled states.Three years before, in Citizens United, the same court declared that corporate money counted as political speech, thereby opening the floodgates on money in politics in ways that allowed the rich to distort public discourses ahead of elections. Donald Trump memorably tried to interfere with the 2020 census so that it would count as few of those who were disinclined to support him as possible, hoping to create a skewed vision of America in the data that the government uses to apportion public resources and congressional representation alike. The result is a clear picture of the Republican party’s approach to elections: that so long as they create a positive outcome for their candidates, they need not be strictly speaking fair, free or meaningful representations of the people’s will.Ahead of the 2026 midterms, Republicans are pursuing this agenda with renewed zeal. At Trump’s direction, Republicans in Texas are looking to redraw their state’s congressional maps to be more favorable to the Republican party, allowing the party to gain more seats in the House of Representatives not by persuading voters, but by choosing who their voters will be. The US supreme court, meanwhile, has chosen to continue its own efforts to rewrite election law in the Republicans favor, taking up a long-languishing case out of Louisiana challenging the remainder of the Voting Rights Act and accelerating argument so that a decision can be released in time for Republican-leaning states to redraw their maps ahead of the November 2026 contests.In Texas, the effort to ensure that the voters’ actual preferences will have no bearing on the outcome of the House races has unfolded in dramatic fashion. In early August, Trump told Texas’s governor, Greg Abbott, to redraw his state’s congressional district maps – an unusual move in the middle of the decade – to ensure that Republicans picked up as many as five additional seats in Congress. “We” – the Republicans – “are entitled to five more seats”, the president said. Trump cited his own victory in Texas in the 2024 election as evidence that the state’s congressional seats belonged to his party – furthering his claim, often amorphous but repeatedly asserted, that his victory in 2024 amounts to a total and permanent grant of authority over all American policy and political jurisdictions.The Texas governor quickly called the state legislature into a special session to vote on a proposed new set of districts for 2016. In a bit of political theater meant to draw attention to the move, the state legislature’s Democrats then left Texas in protest in order to deny the body a quorum to move on the vote, seeking sanctuary in Democratic-controlled Illinois. The standoff came to an end when the Democrats gave in and agreed to return to the state on Friday, following the announcement by the California governor, Gavin Newsom, that he would encourage legislators in his own state to redraw maps in Democrats’ favor. The new Texas maps are likely to be passed by Labor Day, allowing the state to secure the outcomes in their 2026 congressional contests more than a year before a single vote is cast.Such moves are likely to become more common in the near future. The supreme court, not satisfied with having declared large portions of the Voting Rights Act unconstitutional in 2013, is now moving to strike down section 2, the law’s last remaining edifice. The law allows states to draw so-called “majority minority” districts, so that Black voters can express political power in areas where they are concentrated instead of having their voting preferences diluted by spreading their votes out across majority-white districts.The justices are now poised to strike down this last remaining vestige of the monumental 20th-century law that was meant to remedially constitute Black voting power amid a long history of political repression, and finally make the 15th amendment meaningful in practice. Without this law, Republican-controlled states are likely to redraw their maps in order to eliminate “majority-minority” districts, thereby making it all but impossible for Black voters to elect their preferred candidates in many states, particularly across the former Confederacy.There was no need for the justices to take this case. The issue in question – a redistricting in Louisiana that created a second majority-minority congressional district in a state with six congressional districts that is more than 30% Black – had already been declared constitutional by an appellate court, in deference to the supreme court’s longstanding precedent. But John Roberts – depressingly, now the court’s moderate – has had a career-long vendetta against the Voting Rights Act, and will not resist an opportunity to finally strike it down in full. That the court expedited argument so as to be able to issue an opinion in June 2026 – just in time for states to redistrict before the midterms. It is yet another signal that the justices in the court’s majority consider themselves to be Republican party operatives – and the Republican party, as a whole, is becoming less and less interested in running in competitive elections.It is yet to be seen whether these efforts will succeed in swinging the midterm elections decisively in Republicans’ favor. Maybe the redistricting in Texas and the retaliation planned by California will not prompt a nationwide tit-for-tat of gerrymandering across the states; maybe the supreme court will show uncharacteristic restraint, and not overturn a decades-old precedent in order to further erode Black Americans’ voting rights.But the odds are slim, and at any rate, the Republican party has already shown that its commitment to democratic elections – that is, the kind that they might lose – is paper thin. The Trump administration, meanwhile, is reviving their first-term effort to rewrite the rules of the census. In 2030, they hope, many Americans in Democratic-leaning districts simply won’t count at all.

      Moira Donegan is a Guardian US columnist More

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      Trump news at a glance: President hosts Ukraine talks, announces plan to end mail-in voting

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      Donald Trump said arrangements were under way for a face to face meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to be followed by a trilateral meeting between the two and the US president.Writing on his Truth Social site after meetings with Ukraine’s president and European leaders ended at the White House on Monday, Trump said: “I called President Putin, and began the arrangements for a meeting, at a location to be determined, between President Putin and President Zelenskyy.”He added: “After that meeting takes place, we will have a Trilat, which would be the two Presidents, plus myself. Again, this was a very good, early step for a War that has been going on for almost four years.”The US president also said after talks with leaders from the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Finland, the EU and Nato that Europe could provide security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a Russia peace deal, with Washington taking an oversight role.“During the meeting we discussed Security Guarantees for Ukraine, which Guarantees would be provided by the various European Countries, with a coordination with the United States of America,” Trump said on Truth Social.Here are the key Trump news of the day:Trump tells Zelenskyy ceasefire not needed for peace dealDonald Trump has ruled out a ceasefire in Ukraine as Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his European allies visited the White House to push for US-backed security guarantees as part of any long-term peace deal.The US president, who only last week warned Russia of “very severe consequences” if Vladimir Putin failed to agree to a halt the fighting, made clear on Monday he had reversed his position.Welcoming Zelenskyy to the hastily assembled meeting at the Oval Office, Trump referred to other conflicts which he claimed to have ended, telling reporters: “I don’t think you’d need a ceasefire. If you look at the six deals that I settled this year, they were all at war – I didn’t do any ceasefires.”Read the full storyTrump says lawyers are drafting executive order to end mail-in votingDonald Trump on Monday announced that lawyers are drafting an executive order to eliminate mail-in voting, days after Vladimir Putin told him US elections were rigged because of postal ballots.In a White House meeting alongside Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump said: “We’re going to start with an executive order that’s being written right now by the best lawyers in the country to end mail in ballots because they’re corrupt.”Read the full storyDemocrats return to Texas as California kicks off push to pass new electoral mapTexas Democrats returned to their state on Monday as California lawmakers are set to convene in the state capitol to kick off a rapid push to get voters to approve a new congressional map that could add as many as five Democratic seats in the US House.The California effort is in response to Texas’s push to redraw the congressional map there to add five Republican seats. On Friday, Texas’s Republican governor, Greg Abbott, called a second special session after Democrats remained out of the state for two weeks, denying Republicans a quorum to conduct legislative business.Read the full storyNewsmax to pay $67m to Dominion to settle US election defamation lawsuitThe conservative outlet Newsmax has agreed to pay $67m to Dominion Voting Systems to settle a defamation lawsuit over lies about voting in the 2020 election.Read the full storyWhat else happened today:

      The number of people eating at restaurants in Washington DC has plummeted since Donald Trump deployed federal troops to the city, according to data, as the president’s purported crackdown on crime continues.

      A federal judge in Miami was hearing arguments on Monday that detainees at the remote immigration jail in the Florida Everglades known as “Alligator Alcatraz” are routinely subjected to human rights abuses and denied due process before being deported.

      As part of his administration’s war on “woke”, Donald Trump has asked the American public to report anything “negative” about Americans in US national parks. But the public has largely refused to support a worldview without inconvenient historical facts, comments submitted from national parks and seen by the Guardian show.
      Catching up? Here’s what happened on 17 August 2025. More

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      Democrats return to Texas as California kicks off push to pass new electoral map

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      Texas Democrats returned to their state on Monday as California lawmakers kicked off a rapid push for voters to approve a new congressional map that could add as many as five Democratic seats in the US House.The Texas Democrats’ return ends a two-week walkout that stalled the Republican effort to redraw the state’s congressional districts to satisfy Donald Trump’s demands to reshape the US House map in his favor ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.The California plan was drafted in response to Texas’s push to redraw the congressional map there. On Friday, Texas’s Republican governor, Greg Abbott, called a second special session after Democrats remained out of the state for two weeks, denying Republicans a quorum to conduct legislative business.The Democrats said last week they would return once California moved ahead with its counter-proposal, all but ensuring that Texas’s new maps will pass.The protest began on 3 August, when dozens of Texas Democrats left the state for Illinois and other blue states in a high-stakes bid to deny their Republican colleagues the quorum needed to approve the redrawn maps. Although the Democrats’ return allows Republicans to advance their redistricting plan, the quorum-breakers have declared their two-week walkout a strategic success that set off a “redistricting arms race”.“We killed the corrupt special session, withstood unprecedented surveillance and intimidation and rallied Democrats nationwide to join this existential fight for fair representation – reshaping the entire 2026 landscape,” Gene Wu, the chair of the Texas house democratic caucus, said.“We’re returning to Texas more dangerous to Republicans’ plans than when we left.”Dustin Burrows, the Republican house speaker, did not mention the Republican redistricting proposal, but said the chamber would move swiftly to enact its legislative agenda during the second special session. Later on Monday evening, a house committee approved the new map, which will soon be sent to the floor for a full vote.“Representatives come and go. Issues rise and fall. But this body has endured wars, economic depressions and quorum breaks dating back to the very first session,” Burrows said during Monday’s session. “Now is the time for action.”He also outlined new surveillance protocols that would apply to the Democrats who had civil arrest warrants issued in their absence, stating they would “be granted written permission to leave only after agreeing to be released into the custody of a designated [Texas department of public safety] officer” who would ensure their return to the chamber.One Democrat is refusing to accept the conditions. Nicole Collier, a state representative for Fort Worth, vowed to remain confined inside the Texas house chamber until lawmakers reconvene on Wednesday, declining to comply with what she condemned as a Republican “permission slip” – a document authorizing a round-the-clock law enforcement escort.“I refuse to sign away my dignity as a duly elected representative just so Republicans can control my movements and monitor me with police escorts,” Collier, a seven-term lawmaker and a former chair of the Texas Legislative Black caucus, said on Monday.Collier’s demonstration is the latest act of Democratic resistance to the Republican redistricting plan. “When I press that button to vote, I know these maps will harm my constituents – I won’t just go along quietly with their intimidation or their discrimination,” she said.The new California map, released on Friday, would create three new safely Democratic districts and two new districts that are Democratic leaning but still competitive.The plan, led by the California governor Gavin Newsom, must be approved by the state legislature before it is put to vote in a special election this fall. If voters agree to override the house map created by the independent redistricting commission after the 2020 census, the proposed boundaries would replace current ones through 2030. Democrats said they will return the mapmaking power to the commission after that.Newsom praised the effort on Monday, calling it a necessary response to Trump’s influence over redistricting in Texas and other Republican-led states.“We are not going to sit idle while they command Texas and other states to rig the next election to keep power,” Newsom said, adding that the proposal gives Californians “a choice to fight back”.Internal polling presented to lawmakers showed voters favored the measure 52% to 41%, with 7% undecided, according to the local television station KCRA.Republicans in California condemned the proposal as an assault on the state’s voter-approved independent redistricting commission and said they plan to introduce legislation that advocates for creating similar map-drawing bodies in all 50 states.“Governor Newsom, this is nothing more than a power grab,” Tony Strickland, a Republican state senator, said during a Monday news conference in Sacramento.He warned the redistricting tit-for-tat sets a dangerous precedent that will not be easily undone. “The Golden Gate Bridge toll was supposed to be temporary,” he added. “You’re still paying the toll.”The legislature could hold floor votes to send the measure to voters for approval as soon as Thursday, KCRA reported.House Republicans currently hold a razor-thin three-seat majority in the US House and Trump has pushed to redraw district boundaries ahead of next year’s midterm elections, in which the president’s party typically loses seats. Republicans are also poised to redraw congressional districts in Ohio, Missouri and Florida, as well as potentially Indiana.Democrats have signaled they will try to redraw districts in other states where they hold power at the state level, such as New York and Maryland, though they do not have as many opportunities to draw districts as Republicans do. More

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      Zelenskyy’s European ‘bodyguards’: which leaders joined Trump talks in Washington?

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      European leaders gathered in Washington on Monday for Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s meeting with Donald Trump in the Oval Office, in a show of support for the Ukrainian president. Their presence came amid expectations that Trump would try to bully Zelenskyy into accepting a pro-Russia “peace plan” that would include Kyiv handing territory to Moscow. The Europeans have been described as Zelenskyy’s “bodyguards”, with memories fresh of the mauling he received in February during his last Oval Office visit. So, who are they?Mark RutteSecretary general of NatoRutte has a proven record of flattering Trump for strategic purposes, using language that some allies find cringe-making. In June he referred to the capricious US president as “Daddy” in an attempt to avoid disastrous outbursts at the Nato summit. Rutte has repeatedly praised Trump in public, including in a recent interview on Fox News, and credits him for pushing Nato members to spend 3.5% of their GDP on defence. The US had carried the burden of European security for too long, Rutte has said – music to Trump’s ears.Ursula von der LeyenPresident of the European CommissionVon der Leyen is a staunch supporter of Ukraine who backs Kyiv’s EU membership. For Trump, she is a reminder of Europe’s combined importance as an economic bloc. The US struck a trade deal with the EU three weeks ago, and Trump hailed the relationship as “the biggest trading partnership in the world”. On Sunday she hosted Zelenskyy in Brussels. She said a post-peace-deal Ukraine had to become “a steel porcupine, indigestible for potential invaders”, with no limits on its armed forces.Keir StarmerUK prime minister Starmer has performed a balancing act when it comes to Trump, keeping him on side while advocating for Ukraine. So far, this tactic has worked. The US president has gone out of his way to emphasise their good relations, despite Starmer’s “liberal” outlook. Both men have an incentive to preserve this rapport ahead of Trump’s state visit next month to the UK. Meanwhile, Starmer and Zelenskyy have developed a warm personal relationship, hugging in February outside Downing Street after Zelenskyy’s previous, disastrous Oval Office meeting, and again last week. The prime minister stresses territorial integrity, which contradicts Trump’s “peace deal” that involves Russia taking more Ukrainian land.Alexander StubbPresident of Finland Stubb represents a small European state but he will be in Washington because he has managed to establish an unexpectedly warm relationship with Trump. The Finnish leader cultivated his access to the US president by hastily polishing his rusty golfing skills before an impromptu trip to Florida in March for a round with Trump, on the recommendation of the Republican senator Lindsey Graham. Stubb’s message on the putting green: you can’t trust Vladimir Putin. Finland sees parallels between Ukraine’s plight and its own history, the Soviet Union having invaded in 1939, saying it needed Finnish territory.Emmanuel MacronFrench presidentMacron combines French economic and military clout with a proven ability to get on with Trump, symbolised by their intense handshakes. In the lead-up to Russia’s 2022 invasion, Macron flew to Moscow to reason with Putin. He has since become a key diplomatic ally for Ukraine. Asked on Sunday whether Putin wanted a genuine peace deal, Macron replied: “No.” He said Ukraine needed a strong army and security guarantees if a lasting settlement was to be achieved. The French president will want to persuade Trump that his post-Alaska-summit plan to stop the fighting is a non-starter, and against Ukraine and Europe’s long-term security interests.Friedrich MerzGerman presidentMerz has cut a sure-footed figure on the world stage since taking office in May, including largely holding his own in an Oval Office face-off with Trump over the summer. He has emerged as a crucial partner for Zelenskyy, who was often frustrated with Merz’s slow-moving predecessor, Olaf Scholz. Berlin has clout as one pillar of the French-German axis at the heart of the EU. It is also a major financial donor to Kyiv. Merz’s task in the Oval Office is to persuade Trump not to act hastily and “over the heads of Ukrainians and Europeans”, as he put it last week.Giorgia MeloniPrime minister of ItalyMeloni has broken off from her holiday to fly to Washington, a sign that Trump’s Russia-friendly “peace plan” marks a moment of danger for Europe. She will be a useful bridge in the Oval Office meeting, as a European far-right leader whom Trump counts as a friend. Meloni has spent time at Mar-a-Lago, the US president’s Florida home, and was the only European leader invited to his inauguration in January. At the same time, she strongly supports Kyiv’s sovereignty. In July she hosted a Ukraine recovery conference in Rome, designed to help the country rebuild when Russia’s war finally ends. More

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      Trump says lawyers are drafting executive order to end mail-in voting

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      Donald Trump on Monday announced that lawyers are drafting an executive order to eliminate mail-in voting, days after Vladimir Putin told him US elections were rigged because of postal ballots.In a White House meeting alongside Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump said: “We’re going to start with an executive order that’s being written right now by the best lawyers in the country to end mail in ballots because they’re corrupt.”The push follows Trump’s meeting with Putin in Alaska on Friday, when the Russian president allegedly told him that the 2020 election “was rigged because you have mail-in voting”, according to Trump’s subsequent interview with Sean Hannity.Trump falsely claimed that late former president Jimmy Carter opposed mail-in voting, saying: “Even Jimmy Carter with this commission, they set it up. He said, the one thing about mail in voting, you will never have an honest election if you have mail in it.”In reality, Carter urged the opposite during the 2020 Covid pandemic, with the Carter Center arguing that the best way to tackle potential voter fraud in a vote-by-mail situation is to strengthen safeguards and expand voting access.“I urge political leaders across the country to take immediate steps to expand vote-by-mail and other measures that can help protect the core of American democracy – the right of our citizens to vote,” Carter said in a statement.Trump started off his Monday morning by making a lengthy Truth Social post, in which he said: “I am going to lead a movement to get rid of MAIL-IN BALLOTS,” while also targeting “Highly ‘Inaccurate,’ Very Expensive, and Seriously Controversial VOTING MACHINES” which he claimed cost “Ten Times more than accurate and sophisticated Watermark Paper”.In that post, Trump falsely asserted that the US was “now the only Country in the World that uses Mail-In Voting” and claimed “All others gave it up because of the MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD ENCOUNTERED.”Data from International Idea contradicts this claim, showing that 34 countries worldwide allow mail-in voting, with 12 allowing it for all voters and 22 for some voters. Most European countries offer some form of mail voting, and more than 100 countries let their citizens vote by mail when living abroad.US courts rejected numerous fraud allegations after the 2020 presidential election, finding no evidence of widespread irregularities.Across the US, 28 states let voters request a mail ballot without giving a reason, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Eight states and Washington DC send everyone their ballot in the mail automatically, and about one in five American voters lives in one of those states.The president’s opposition to mail-in voting comes despite his own use of the method. In 2020, both Trump and the first lady, Melania Trump, submitted vote-by-mail ballots in Florida ahead of the state’s primaries, which Palm Beach county confirmed receiving.Trump also claimed states are “merely an ‘agent’ for the Federal Government” and must follow presidential orders on elections. That’s wrong: the constitution gives states control over how they conduct elections.Mail voting has exploded in popularity – from fewer than one in 10 voters in 1996 to nearly half during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. As of 2022, it was used by about one in three voters, according to a report by the MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Supporters have long said mail ballots make voting easier for people who can’t get to polling stations – those with disabilities, parents with young kids, or workers with long shifts, while also giving voters more time to research candidates at home. More

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      Newsmax to pay $67m to Dominion to settle US election defamation lawsuit

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      The conservative outlet Newsmax has agreed to pay $67m to Dominion Voting Systems to settle a defamation lawsuit over lies about voting in the 2020 election.The settlement came as the case was headed to trial. Earlier this year, Delaware superior court judge Eric Davis ruled that Newsmax had defamed the voting technology company by broadcasting false claims about its equipment after the 2020 election. A jury would have considered whether Newsmax was liable for damages. Dominion had sued the outlet for $1.6bn.After the 2020 election, lies about the security of Dominion voting machines, which are widely used in the US, became central to Donald Trump’s false claim that the election was stolen from him. Allies and other rightwing personalities made baseless claims that votes had been flipped and that the equipment was not secure.“We are pleased to have settled this matter,” Dominion said in a statement to CNN.In a lengthy statement of its own, Newsmax was defiant, saying it chose to settle not because it was admitting wrongdoing, but because it believed Davis would not give the company a fair trial.“Newsmax believed it was critically important for the American people to hear both sides of the election disputes that arose in 2020,” the company said. “We stand by our coverage as fair, balanced, and conducted within professional standards of journalism.”Newsmax will be paying the settlement in three instalments until January 2027.Dominion obtained a $787.5m defamation settlement from Fox in 2023 on the eve of a defamation trial in Delaware. Ahead of the settlement, Dominion lawyers obtained internal communications from Fox hosts and personalities that showed they knew many of the outlandish claims the outlets hosts and guests were broadcasting about the election were not true.Newsmax agreed to pay $40m to settle a defamation case against Smartmatic, another voting equipment company, last year. One America News, another far-right outlet, also settled a defamation case with Smartmatic last year.Fox is now defending itself in a pending defamation suit brought by Smartmatic. More

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      Trump’s promise of a US manufacturing renaissance leaves experts scratching their heads

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      Donald Trump’s hugely disruptive trade war is setting the stage for a manufacturing renaissance in the US, administration officials say. Outside the White House, many economists are skeptical.Global trade experts point to many reasons they believe the president’s tariffs will fail to bring about a major resurgence of manufacturing, among them: Trump’s erratic, constantly changing policies, his unfocused, across-the-board tariffs, and his replacing Joe Biden’s carrot-and-sticks approach to brandish sticks at the world.“I think [Trump’s tariffs] will reduce the competitiveness of US manufacturing, and will reduce manufacturing employment,” said Michael Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute (AEI). “They’re raising the costs of production to US manufacturing companies, and that makes manufacturers less competitive. There will be some winners and some losers, but the losers will outnumber the winners.”‘Trump keeps changing his mind’The president and his aides insist that higher tariffs on more than 100 countries – making goods imported from overseas more expensive – will spur domestic manufacturing. “The ‘Made in USA’ label is set to resume its global dominance under President Trump,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai claimed recently.But few economists see that happening. Ann E Harrison, an economics professor and former dean of the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, said the erratic, on-again-off-again rollout of Trump’s tariffs has already gone far to doom the president’s hopes of inspiring a huge wave of manufacturing investment.“For the policy to be successful, it has to be consistent over a long period,” she told the Guardian. “People need to believe it’s going to last. Some factories take five years to plan and build. You’re talking a long-term play. But Trump keeps changing his mind. Even over the last six months, we’ve had very little consistency.“The other problem is that he’s old, and no one is sure he’s going to be around that long. These policies need to be consistent, and that’s not happening.”Economists point to another question mark that is causing corporate executives to think twice about building factories in the US. In May, the US Court of International Trade ruled that Trump’s blanket tariffs are illegal – a decision that is under appeal.Strain, at the AEI, said: “When you add into the equation the erratic nature of president Trump’s tariff regime, when you add the question of its questionable illegality, when you add that none of this is going through Congress, when you add that even when the US secures a ‘deal’ with another country, it’s not really a deal, there are major outstanding questions.”France doesn’t think its alcohol exports will be hit by tariffs as part of the European Union’s agreement to pay 15% tariffs, noted Strain. “That’s a big question mark that would never go unresolved in any regular, traditional trade deal,” he said. “That’s all part of the massive uncertainty we’re seeing.”The Biden administration used deliberate industrial policies to boost several strategic industries, most notably semiconductors and electric vehicles, including a 100% tariff on EVs from China and 25% on lithium-ion EV batteries, as well as subsidies to buy EVs and build EV-related factories. The policies resulted in a surge in new factories to build semiconductors, electric vehicles and EV components.Biden “said we care about semiconductors and national security, and what he’d try to do is get actual investors to invest in it”, said Dani Rodrik, an economist specializing in trade and industrial policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, who predicted Trump’s blanket tariffs will prove less successful in inspiring investment. “If you really want to increase manufacturing and employment in the US, you’d go about it in a very different way, through industrial policies that first identify specific segments you care about.”When China, Japan and South Korea adopted policies to build their electronics and auto industries, they insisted that the corporations that benefited from those policies compete with foreign companies to help make them globally competitive. “For industrial policy to succeed, it has to work to promote more competition,” said Harrison, at the Haas School of Business. “The problem with tariffs is they do just the opposite. They restrict competition.”Susan Helper, an economist at Case Western Reserve University who worked on industrial policy in the Biden and Obama administrations, said Trump’s tariff rates on some countries and markets – like 15% on the EU, Japan and South Korea – are too low to spur much investment, questioning why a company would build a major factory to circumvent such a duty.“A [semiconductor fabrication] plant, that’s a billion dollars. You need to get a payback and that takes several years,” Helper said. “If the tariffs are 145% [as Trump once imposed on China], that’s attractive for building a plant. But if they fall back to 15%, then it’s really hard to get a return on your investment.”The administration boasts that several of its trade deals have specific commitments to spur huge manufacturing investment. It says its deal with the EU includes a $600bn investment pledge; with Japan, a $550bn investment pledge; and with South Korea, $350bn. Jamieson Greer, US trade representative, wrote in the New York Times: “These investments – 10 times larger than the inflation-adjusted value of the Marshall Plan that rebuilt Europe after World War II – will accelerate US reindustrialization.”But these supposed pledges have attracted skepticism. After all, this president claimed during his first term that “the eighth wonder of the world” was being built in Wisconsin after FoxConn pledged to invest $10bn and create 13,000 jobs at an electronics plant. But that promise fell embarrassingly short.Many economists question whether the EU, Japan or South Korea can force corporations to make a specific investment in the US. Indeed, an EU Commission spokesperson said the bloc had expressed “aggregate intentions” that are “in no way” binding. “These large numbers really sound like window dressing, some round numbers they’re throwing around,” said Harvard’s Rodrik.“Some include investments you were already going to make, and some are aspirational,” said Todd Tucker, a trade and industrial policy expert at the Roosevelt Institute. “Once we’ve had time to evaluate whether the investment happens or not, Trump will be on to the next press cycle.”In recent years, manufacturing employment has been trending downward – not just in advanced industrial countries, but also in China, as new technologies enable factories to churn out goods more efficiently, with fewer workers. That trend raises questions whether Trump’s trade policies can increase factory jobs in the US.‘An island of backwardness’The US is past its manufacturing peak, Berkeley’s Harrison noted. “That was actually during World War Two, and it has been declining ever since,” she said. “I don’t see manufacturing’s share of the economy or manufacturing employment reversing.”She added: “If the question is, are you going to bring about a major resurgence in manufacturing employment, it’s not just unlikely, the answer is no. More and more manufacturing is robot-driven and not done by people.”Auto industry officials in the US complain that Trump’s 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum have increased their costs and injured their competitiveness. “In manufacturing, for every one job in steel production, there are 80 jobs that use steel,” the AEI’s Strain said. “So putting tariffs on imported steel might help that one guy, but you’re hurting the other 80 people.”A study by Federal Reserve economists found that the tariffs Trump imposed in his first term were actually associated with a reduction in factory jobs nationwide, because increased input costs and retaliatory tariffs outweighed import protection from tariffs.Helper, at Case Western Reserve University, warned that the US auto industry will be hurt badly by Trump’s mishmash of tariffs coupled with his slashing subsidies for EVs. “Trump’s policies are setting the auto industry up to be an island of backwardness,” she said. “The rest of the world is going to be making EVs, but we’re going to be focused on making really high profits on pickup trucks that will be bad for the climate and won’t sell in the rest of the world.“We’ll have a great, competitive position in large, gas-guzzling pickups, but we’ll fall further behind in EVs. That’s a very risky and dangerous path.” More

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      Monday briefing: What’s at stake for Ukrainians as Trump and Putin talk of ceding land in return for peace

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      Good morning. On Friday, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin met in Alaska to discuss the future of Ukraine, but there was no deal reached and no big questions answered. Trump appeared deferential to the Russian leader and now backs plans to hand over Ukrainian territory as part of a peace deal. Today he will meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders.In discussions about what a peace settlement would look like, “land swaps” were represented as simple transactions. The fate of people appeared to be a casual afterthought. Trump and Putin are eager to embrace the idea that territory can be bought and sold like real estate, but Guardian reporting exposes the devastating part of this war: human loss.Last month casualties hit a three-year high, with more Ukrainian civilians killed than in any month since May 2022. Our writers have been documenting the escalating human cost of this war – whole communities eradicated, schools shut, cottages silent and people in towns near fighting exhausted by sleepless nights.For today’s newsletter, I spoke to our senior international correspondent Luke Harding, who has just returned from four weeks in Ukraine, about what morale is like in these once tranquil villages now on the frontlines – and whether the Alaska summit changes anything for Ukraine. That’s after the headlines.Five big stories

      Gaza | Palestinians were gripped by fear and anxiety on Sunday after the Israeli military said it was preparing for the forcible displacement of a million people from Gaza City. Meanwhile tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered in Tel Aviv to call for an end to the war in Gaza.

      Scotland | The UK’s first transgender judge has launched a case against the UK in the European court of human rights challenging the process that led to the supreme court’s ruling on biological sex.

      Business | The bosses of Britain’s largest listed companies took home record high pay packets for the third successive year, according to a report. Analysis found that the record set in the last financial year means the average FTSE 100 chief executive is now paid 122 times the salary of the average full-time UK worker.

      US news | Three people were killed and eight others wounded when multiple gunmen opened fire inside a crowded Brooklyn hookah lounge and restaurant early on Sunday morning, according to authorities.

      Weather | Hurricane Erin was downgraded to category 3 early on Sunday as its outer bands continued to lash the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with heavy rains and tropical storm force winds.
      In depth: ‘Entire communities are being eradicated’View image in fullscreenLuke Harding has been reporting from the Dnipropetrovsk region, which the Russians have penetrated for the first time in the last few weeks. An evacuation charity has been rescuing elderly and sick people from frontline villages swallowed up by fighting – they are usually the last to leave.“It’s about people, it’s about homes, livelihoods, families, husbands, wives, children, grandparents, dogs, cats, chickens, vegetable gardens, and so on – this is what’s being lost,” says Luke. “Entire communities are being eradicated.”This monumental loss is encapsulated by the story of Valentyn Velykyi, a 70-year-old man who lived in the small agricultural village of Maliyivka in central-eastern Ukraine. He knew everyone in his village. Once Russian troops arrived, the village’s 300-odd residents fled, except Velykyi – until a missile destroyed his house and he no longer had a home to go to.People in villages all over Ukraine have similar stories. “There’s something biblical about it,” says Luke. “You go to these places and you see incongruously blooming vigorous gardens with flowers and marrows and apple trees where apples are falling and lying on the wayside, next to benches where people used to sit and gossip with their neighbours.” Primary schools are closed, shops are shut up, and people have fled. “It’s the extermination of a way of life – that’s what it is. It’s not real estate. It’s human estate.”Luke says Putin is indifferent to what happens in these areas – his priority is for them to be part of Russia. For many civilians in areas under occupation by Russia, ceding control in a peace deal would mean saying goodbye to their homes for ever.As a foreign correspondent, Luke would go to the frontline and then return to Kyiv to write his reports, but now Kyiv is being targeted by Russian drones almost every night. “It’s really hard to sleep, and when you go out for your coffee in the morning, everybody looks exhausted.”What do ordinary Ukrainians think about Russia?A poll from 2014 found that 26% of Ukrainians living in the east of the country thought Russia and Ukraine should unite as a single state. But Luke says that now – apart from a very few older people – everybody supports Ukraine and hates Russia.Since the war, Ukraine has also become more European (last month protests erupted against weakening the powers of anti-corruption agencies). “The great irony of this war is that Putin wants to de-Ukrainise Ukraine – he wants to make it disappear, roll it back into Russia.” But he’s done the opposite, says Luke, who has been travelling to Ukraine since 2007. “Ukraine has become more Ukrainian since I’ve been going there.”Shaun Walker, meanwhile, has been reporting from the city of Zaporizhzhia, an industrial hub in south-east Ukraine that has been under near-constant attack from missiles and drones. Plenty of people here and in other Ukrainian towns close to the frontline are ready for Kyiv to sign a peace deal – even an imperfect one – if it means the attacks will stop. But many others disagree, because they know first-hand what it means to give Russia control over Ukrainian territory: arrests, disappearances and the erasure of anything Ukrainian.What does the future hold for Ukrainians?Today European leaders will join Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in the White House for a meeting with Donald Trum​p in an effort to push back on a US-endorsed “peace plan”​.Ukrainians understand Russia very well. They speak both languages, and they don’t trust Putin, who has “violated every previous agreement he’s signed”, says Luke.Giving over land, they believe, would simply make it easier for him to advance further. “People understand that a ceasefire would last five minutes, five days, maybe a maximum of five months, and then Putin would continue because his goal is unchanged – which is to destroy Ukraine entirely and turn it into Russia, which he considers it to be,” says Luke. “And practically the only person on the planet who doesn’t seem to understand this is Donald Trump.”The Russian strategy is to be deliberately chaotic – targeting different areas all across the country. Fighting has increased on all fronts, with waves of kamikaze drones and ballistic missiles.“It looks pretty bleak insofar as the Russians will continue to push forward. They have numerical advantages in terms of troops, machinery, fibre-optic drones,” he says. “I just don’t see that ending, because the Russians think they’re winning … There’s no incentive for the Russians to stop, and the Americans are not making the Russians stop.“Putin’s lobbying campaign on Trump behind the scenes has been extremely effective. Trump has basically shifted position in a way that Ukraine and Europe hoped he wouldn’t. This has happened in two important ways: one, he now says there needs to be a comprehensive peace deal and then a ceasefire [which is the Russian position]; and two, sources suggest he has embraced the Russian land swap plan, which is that Russia gets full control of Donetsk and Luhansk as a condition for ending the war.“What we’ll see over the next few weeks is pressure ratcheted up on Ukraine to go along with this ‘ceasefire plan’ without very many meaningful guarantees from America,” says Luke. “It’s going to be a stormy and difficult time ahead. And what is abundantly clear – post Alaska – is that this war will continue.”What about the fate of Ukrainians elsewhere?There are nearly seven million Ukrainian refugees globally, with more than 200,000 in the UK.Generally, refugees have been treated well – support for Ukraine is not a party-political issue in the UK. But there have been issues with continued housing – for example, last weekend a Ukrainian mum with two children told Luke she was being kicked out of her council flat. “Many people opened their homes to Ukrainian refugees three and a half years ago, and now many have had to move on,” he says. Some have gone back to Ukraine.A billion-pound budget was awarded to councils across England to help Ukrainian refugees find accommodation. Yet £327m has remained unused, despite thousands of Ukrainian refugees being homeless. “It’s fine to say, ‘Oh, we’re saving it for a rainy day,’ but people are struggling now,” says reporter Diane Taylor, who worked on the investigation, published this morning.While organisations such as the Ukrainian Institute London have offered free language classes, learning English remains a barrier for many refugees seeking accommodation, especially when trying to access private rented housing. Diane stressed how “if you can speak the language, it makes life easier, even for something as unimportant as a holiday”. Experts, meanwhile, say council support “is often a postcode lottery”. Councils have a great deal of discretion over the funds, and while many have received assistance, more and more are struggling.The problem for Ukraine is that the longer the war goes on, the less likely people are to return. “Mostly we’re talking about women and kids,” says Luke. “The ones in the UK are in British schools, they’ve made friends – they’re integrating. The longer the war continues, the greater the likelihood they become British.”Ukrainians are weary but defiant. “They want the fighting to stop, they want the bombs to stop falling. But they don’t want to hand over their homes, communities, jobs, the places where they fell in love, to the Russian enemy.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAdditional writing by Saranka Maheswaran.What else we’ve been readingView image in fullscreen

      England has an international reputation for endless rain and yet it appears the unthinkable is happening – we’re running out of water. Here’s a great read from Helena Horton on why our reservoirs are so low. Phoebe

      Hundreds of people have been arrested for taking part in demonstrations in support for the banned group Palestine Action. Half of those recently arrested were 60 or over. The Guardian interviewed those who took part for this incredibly beautiful infographic. Aamna

      This piece is not for the squeamish but it’s a fascinating look inside the world of men who are so desperate to be taller they will sustain medieval torture for the privilege. Phoebe

      Simon Hattenstone recalls Princess Andre as a baby in the arms of her mother, Katie Price, who was then married to Princess’s father, Peter Andre. As she turns 18 and launches her reality TV career, the interview deftly examines whether she will fall into the same traps of fame as her parents. Aamna

      I’m curious about Zack Polanski’s brand of “eco-populism” and interested to see he is starting to pull away from his more traditional Green party competitors – seems like change could be afoot. Phoebe
      SportView image in fullscreenFootball | ​A goalkeeping error from Manchester United’s Altay Bayindir allowed Riccardo Calafiori to score the winner at Old Trafford for Arsenal in the opening weekend of the Premier League.Tennis | Jannik Sinner, the top seed and defending champion, ended the French qualifier Térence Atmane’s dream run at the Cincinnati Open with a two-set win to reach the final of the US Open warm-up event.Athletics | Long-distance runner Evie Parts has sued the NCAA and Swarthmore College as well as members of its athletic department, saying they illegally removed her from the track team because she is transgender.The front pagesView image in fullscreen“UK and EU at Zelenskyy’s side for talks with Trump” is the Guardian’s lead story headline while the Mirror says “Ukraine war showdown … Europe takes a stand” and the Telegraph runs with “Europe tells Trump: Don’t give in to Putin”. Similar in the i paper – “Europe unites for Zelensky’s peace mission in Washington” – and in the Financial Times: “Zelensky and European allies seek security guarantees in Trump talks”. The Mail calls it “D-day at the White House” and the Times has “Zelensky wants security guarantees before a deal”. A change of subject courtesy of the Metro: “‘Outrageous’ rail fares rises” while the Express splashes with “Britain’s 10 million junk food addicts”.Today in FocusView image in fullscreenStephen Miller, Trump’s immigration mastermindWhat is driving the architect of Donald Trump’s immigration policy? With Jean GuerreroCartoon of the day | Edith PritchettView image in fullscreenThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badView image in fullscreenChannel 5 is reviving Play for Today, the influential BBC anthology drama series that ran from 1970 to 1984 and became known for tackling social issues and launching major careers.The new series aims to give opportunities to creatives from lower-income backgrounds, while continuing its tradition of politically charged storytelling. The first few productions explore themes such as failing schools, historical abuse and ageing.Channel 5’s chief content officer, Ben Frow, said: “The original Play For Today helped establish the careers of some of Britain’s best writers, directors and producers, so we want to do the same.”Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

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