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      Another week, another Trump flirtation with fascism

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      Welcome back to the Stakes, our weekly US politics newsletter. I cover democracy issues, and I’m filling in for Adam Gabbatt this week as Donald Trump flirted with a third term in office (yes, that’s illegal) and posted a video promising a “unified reich” (yes, that’s Nazi-adjacent language). Weird how these anti-democratic “gaffes” keep happening! We’ll get into why that might be, after a look at what else is happening in US politics.Here’s what you need to know
      Trump rests, but doesn’t get any restOn the 20th day of the hush-money trial in New York, Trump declined to take the stand and the defense rested. Trump had falsely claimed he wasn’t allowed to take the stand: he was, and he chose not to. Outside the courtroom, he said although the defense would rest quickly, he himself would not be resting. “I don’t rest. I’d like to rest sometimes, but I don’t get to rest.”
      Biden’s Israel problemThe international criminal court’s prosecutor applied for arrest warrants for leaders of Israel and Hamas, and Joe Biden is not pleased. He called the warrant application “outrageous” and said: “We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security.” His strong backing of Israel comes as the progressive left continues to pressure him to end US support for the Israel-Gaza war.
      That’s not the way the flag goesAn upside-down US flag – a symbol of those who believed the 2020 election was stolen – flew outside the home of the supreme court justice Samuel Alito’s home shortly after the January 6 insurrection in 2021. Alito blamed his wife, saying she did it as part of a dispute with a neighbor, but many observers saw it as the latest example of the politicization of the high court.
      Too many coincidencesView image in fullscreenAnother week, another few instances of Trump flirting with fascism.On Monday, Trump’s Truth Social account reposted a video about a second Trump term which included a fake newspaper with reference to a “unified reich”. The term means “empire” in German and is indelibly associated with Hitler’s rule, which the Nazis called the Third Reich.Biden’s campaign seized on it, saying Trump was telegraphing how he’d lead “as a dictator over a ‘unified reich’”. Trump’s campaign defended themselves by arguing it was all a mistake, saying a staffer reposted the video but didn’t see the words.But the video remained on Trump’s page for 15 hours, long after media outlets had reported on it, and stayed up even after the Trump campaign had acknowledged it in its statement.This pattern isn’t new for Trump: he will often use fascist language or nods to extremist groups, then claim it was a mistake or that the left and the media are twisting a narrative.Like claiming he would be a “dictator on day one”, but only for a day. Or promising a “bloodbath” if he lost the election, which his campaign later declared was a reference to the auto industry. Or calling his political opponents “vermin” – something Hitler also did – and saying immigrants are “poisoning the blood” of the US.Most recently, just days before the Truth Social video, speaking at the National Rifle Association’s convention, Trump floated the idea of a third term. US presidents are limited to two terms by the 22nd amendment to the constitution, which was passed in 1951 a few years after Franklin D Roosevelt won his fourth term.“You know, FDR 16 years – almost 16 years – he was four terms. I don’t know, are we going to be considered three-term? Or two-term?” Trump asked the NRA crowd, some of whom responded “three!”He has previously said he wouldn’t try for a third term – which is good, because it’s not clear how he could unless he figures out how to suspend or override the constitution – and if that were to happen, who knows what comes next.Regardless, the prospect of “Trump forever” is clearly on voters’ minds when they’re deciding who to elect this year, a sign that his ongoing authoritarian bent is spooking at least part of the undecided electorate.“I wouldn’t put it past him, now that he owns the RNC, to say: ‘Don Jr is going to do the next term, and he’ll get two,” said one focus group attendee who was quoted by Bloomberg.“‘And then Barron will get two.’ And we’ll just have some fake monarchy.”Worst weekView image in fullscreenArizona’s fake electors. Eleven of them were arraigned on Tuesday in the state’s case against the people who falsely signed documents saying Trump won the state, and the Trump allies who drummed up the idea.Among the 11 were Christina Bobb, an attorney who is now the Republican National Committee’s senior counsel for election integrity; Rudy Giuliani (last week’s “worst week” winner); former Arizona Republican party chair Kelli Ward and her husband, Michael; and Anthony Kern, a sitting state senator.Giuliani, 80, is so far the only one charged who was required by the court to post a bond, for $10,000. The former New York City mayor led the attorney general’s office on a cross-country chase, which culminated at his birthday party – after taunting the AG on social media – where court officials served him the charges. He later complained that the summons was not delivered to him “stylishly”, though it’s more stylish than usual to serve charges by crashing an 80-year-old’s birthday bash.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBiggest lieView image in fullscreenTrump. The former president was in my home state last Friday for a fundraiser where he again told a whopper: that he won Minnesota in the 2020 election.Obviously, he falsely claims nonstop that he won the entire election in 2020. But the Minnesota claim is a bit newer, as he tries to make the case that the state’s voters should swing to him.“I thought we won it in 2016. I thought we won it in ’20 – I know we won it in 2020,” he said, according to NBC.The 2020 election in Minnesota was not close: Trump lost by more than 233,000 votes, though he was closer in 2016, losing to Hillary Clinton by less than 45,000. Could he win the state in 2024? If he did, it would almost certainly mean Biden lost spectacularly nationwide: Minnesota is a Democratic stronghold for presidents, and the last Republican who won it was Richard Nixon in 1972.Elsewhere in US politicsView image in fullscreen The majority of Americans – nearly three in five – wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and many blame Biden, an exclusive new poll for the Guardian revealed. You can also take our quiz to see if you know how the US economy is faring. Two states have required schools to show an animated video in sex ed classes called Meet Baby Olivia, created by an anti-abortion group to show fetal development. Carter Sherman reports on the latest front of the anti-abortion movement. A Republican concerned about election fraud in 2020 found no fraud once he took over his county’s elections after winning office, Alice Herman reports from conservative Hillsdale county, Michigan.Words fail usView image in fullscreen“If I put my name on something, I really believe it”: Rudy Giuliani, who declared bankruptcy and owes massive legal fees and debts from various civil and criminal lawsuits, on his new coffee line, which he called “smooth, rich, chocolatey and gentle on your stomach”. More

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      Ivanka Trump looks like the comeback kid – and we should all be afraid | Arwa Mahdawi

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      Forget polls or statistical modelling – if you want to know what is going to happen in the US elections, may I suggest consulting the Ivank-a-Meter™? Much complex analysis has gone into the development of my proprietary prediction tool, but the premise is this: the closer Ivanka Trump is to her father, the closer Donald Trump is to the White House.Both Ivanka and her husband, Jared Kushner, always seem to know which way the wind is blowing: the pair made out like bandits when they were unelected members of the Trump administration. Then, when it felt like the grift may be up, the Saudis gave Kushner billions to invest. Over the last couple of years, Jared has been managing those billions while Ivanka has been walking her extremely white dog, Winter, on the beach and going surfing. Both of them seem to have made sure that there are frequent quotes in the press from “people familiar with their thinking”, insisting that the pair don’t want anything to do with politics ever again.While “Javanka” kept their distance from the former president during Trump’s lows, there are signs Ivanka might be thinking of coming out of political retirement. Last summer, just as Trump started doing well in the polls, Ivanka started being spotted with Dad again. Now that a second Trump term is a serious possibility, an Ivanka comeback is being more prominently teased. A few weeks ago, the media outlet Puck reported that Ivanka is “warming to the idea of trying to be helpful again … She’s not like ‘Hell no’ any more.” Last week, an anonymous “friend of Ivanka” told Business Insider that the former first daughter has softened her stance on avoiding politics for ever. While a spokesperson for the couple told Puck these rumours were nonsense, it does feel as though Ivanka is testing the political waters.And while it’s certainly not a done deal that the US will see a President Trump again, if we do then you can expect the reign to be long. Trump recently floated the idea of a third term if he wins in November, and it is rumoured that Ivanka has harboured dreams of being the first female president. All of which to say: the Ivank-a-Meter is flashing red. Arwa Mahdawi is a Guardian columnist
      Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. More

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      Inflation, election lies and racial tension weigh on voters in Georgia swing county: ‘We all got to eat’

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      Less than six months before the US presidential election on 5 November, anxiety over the economy looms large. While official figures show a significant recovery since the pandemic, many Americans aren’t buying it. As polling day approaches, the Guardian is dispatching reporters to key swing counties to gauge how they are feeling – and how they might vote.Rows of pecan and peach trees frame the scenery throughout Peach county, Georgia, a rural area of central Georgia, about 100 miles south of Atlanta. A field of yellow school buses pack a lot on the way into Fort Valley, the county’s seat, where the buses used across the US are manufactured.Peach county is a swing county in what has emerged as one of the most important swing states in the presidential election. And, according to a March 2024 poll conducted by Emerson College, the economy is the most important issue to Georgia voters. About 32% of those polled said the economy was their top priority, trailed by immigration at 14% and healthcare at 12%.In 2020, Joe Biden won the state of Georgia by 0.2 percentage points. Donald Trump won Peach county by just over 500 votes, 51.8% to 47.2%. Emerson’s last poll found 46% of voters in Georgia currently support Trump to 42% supporting Biden, with 12% undecided – setting the state, and Peach county, on course for another nail-biting election where views on the economy will be key.For Victoria Simmons, a retired local newspaper editor who lives in Byron, the economy is a top issue. “People can hardly afford to buy groceries and are losing hope,” she said. “We need to be focusing more on our own country rather than sending millions to places like Ukraine.“If the election is fair and there is no tampering, I believe we will see a Trump victory,” she said.Like many in the US, Anna Holloway, a retired professor in Fort Valley, doesn’t seem enamored by either candidate. She identifies as a “classical liberal” and campaigned and voted for the independent Evan McMullin in 2016, but voted for Biden in 2020 and said she intended to do so again.“I am opposed to big government but voted for Biden and will do so again just because he’s less likely to fracture our political system than Donald Trump,” she said.Inflation remains a big concern for everyone. LeMario Brown, 38, a former city council member in Fort Valley and local pecan farmer, has seen prices rise first-hand. It costs tens of thousands of dollars and years of work to get a pecan farm into production, not including costly and difficult to obtain insurance to cover any crop losses due to natural disasters.“It doesn’t matter if we’re Republican or Democrat, we all got to eat,” he said.He also knows how important just a few votes in the county can be. He came up short in the 2021 election for mayor of Fort Valley by just 19 votes.Born and raised in Fort Valley, Brown explained the transitions in the area he had seen over the years and his hopes for improving the local economy and retaining young people and graduates of the local historically Black university, Fort Valley State University.Brown has been involved with a local non-profit started in 2018, Peach Concerned Citizens, an organization focused on non-partisan civic engagement efforts including voter registration, increasing voter turnout, increasing US census engagement and responses in Peach county and surrounding counties, and educating voters so they have the necessary information to be able to vote and do so informed of who and what they are voting on.“Most individuals are standoffish because politics are like religion,” said Brown. “They don’t want to offend, Democrats or Republicans, but most of the time once you engage a person from a social standpoint, they tell you what the issues are if you’re listening because it’s either they’re going to do what they want to do, or we don’t have enough money to do this, or my light bill or gas is too high, so if you listen you’re going to figure what issues you can actually tackle.”For all this talk of crisis and the loss of hope at the top level, Peach county – like the rest of the US – appears to be doing well. The unemployment rate in the region is just 3.3%, below the US average of 3.9%. Inflation is also trending below the national average. But those macro trends don’t seem to be cutting through locally where people are still feeling the pinch of price rises on everyday living and interest rates seem stuck at heights unseen in 20 years.With the state’s voters splitting evenly between Republicans and Democrats, the candidates are fighting for the 18% of voters Pew Research reported don’t lean either way.“We have some independent voters and I’ve heard the stories of: ‘Well, it’s the lesser of two evils, Biden isn’t doing that, Trump is doing this, Trump is going to do that, Trump isn’t doing that, Biden will do that.’ It’s kind of mixed, but I think it all stems back to economics,” Brown added. “People want to be able to pay the light bill, put gas in the car, feed their family, the basic necessities of being a productive citizen in the community.”But the economy will not be the only issue on the ballot come November. Georgia was also one of the main states where Trump supporters focused their efforts to try to overturn the 2020 election. And for Tim Waters, the chairman of the Peach County Republicans, the number one issue concerning voters in Peach county in 2024 will be corruption, from the local to the federal level.The 2020 election “was stolen and everybody knows it was stolen”, said Waters. “They just keep up this lying nonsense.”“People are sick and tired of the corruption from the absolute travesty of going after Donald Trump again and again and again. That’s why this cabal is trying to destroy this country. People are waking up to it. They’re sick and tired of it and they want change and they want it now,” said Waters. “That is absolutely what I’m seeing.”“They’re still going to cheat again in the elections,” said Waters. “I do not trust the secretary of state. I don’t trust the attorney general of the state of Georgia, Chris Carr, and I do not trust the governor, Brian Kemp. He’s out there at Davos when he should be here focusing on his constituents.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionRace will also be a big factor in Peach county. The county has a population around 28,000, 45% Black and 51% white. Racial and economic demographics largely segregate the county, the Black population centered around the county seat of Fort Valley, with the white, higher-income population predominantly concentrated in the parts of the city of Byron that fall in the county’s north-eastern boundary.Democrats have traditionally won Black votes in Georgia by overwhelming margins. Trump has been courting Black voters despite a long record of racist remarks and some recent polls have suggested he is gaining ground with Black voters. Kattie Kendrick, a retiree and CEO of Peach Concerned Citizens, politely noted that Trump’s old remarks could be an issue come November.“Back when I grew up in the country, all of the children played together. The thing I didn’t like, no disrespect to anyone, but when they turned 16, we had to call them mister and miss, but we were playing together all this time and all of a sudden,” said Kendrick.She noted the resurgence of racism and division in politics, such as Trump telling the far-right extremist group Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by” during a 2020 presidential debate.“I think what happened was it was there all the time, but they pulled the rug back, it became more of an accepted norm and it should never be. I don’t think people should be fake or phoney, but I don’t think we were put here to be mean to each other either,” added Kendrick.She founded the non-profit in 2018 after she ran for a seat on the county commission in 2016 and noticed some of the civic engagement and outreach gaps in the region, in Peach county and other nearby counties as well including Crawford, Taylor, Marion and Lee counties.Kendrick cited numerous issues facing the county, from economic inequities in development and resources and the pressing need for medical coverage, doctors and expansion of Medicaid.“We have a lot of people who only believe they need to vote in a presidential election but the president doesn’t necessarily pave the roads, streets, the utility bills, so we try to get information out to the people where it affects them right now,” she said.The Rev Leon Williams, pastor at the Fairview CME church in Fort Valley, knows that inflation has hurt people but he hopes that voters will put the current situation in perspective.“We just came through Covid-19 where nobody could work, no products were available, so what do you expect when something like that happens? Prices are going to go up, products will be hard to find, supply will be limited, you expect this, it’s going to take time for us to get over that,” said Williams.Voters should “listen to the parties and see what they say what they will do” and not all the negative attacks on the opposition, he said.“Our main focus as I see it is to get the people out to vote, motivate people to get out to vote. That is who is going to win, the people more motivated to vote. The Black community, you don’t need to tell them how to vote, they can listen and see what’s being said,” added Williams.As November’s election inches nearer, Williams worries about the already heated political environment and where it will lead. “I don’t like the direction everything is going right now. Of course, we have problems, but we can work them out,” said Williams. “Those who you divide and want to put down, where are you going to put them? We all have to live here, so we need to find some kind of way to get along instead of getting divided.” More

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      Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Biden

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      Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:
      55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.
      49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.
      49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
      Many Americans put the blame on Biden for the state of the economy, with 58% of those polled saying the economy is worsening due to mismanagement from the presidential administration.The poll underscored people’s complicated emotions around inflation. The vast majority of respondents, 72%, indicated they think inflation is increasing. In reality, the rate of inflation has fallen sharply from its post-Covid peak of 9.1% and has been fluctuating between 3% and 4% a year.In April, the inflation rate went down from 3.5% to 3.4% – far from inflation’s 40-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022 – triggering a stock market rally that pushed the Dow Jones index to a record high.A recession is generally defined by a decrease in economic activity, typically measured as gross domestic product (GDP), over two successive quarters, although in the US the National Bureau of Economic Research (NEBR) has the final say. US GDP has been rising over the last few years, barring a brief contraction in 2022, which the NEBR did not deem a recession.The only recent recession was in 2020, early in the Covid-19 pandemic. Since then, the US economy has grown considerably. Unemployment has also hit historic lows, wages have been going up and consumer spending has been strong.But the road to recovery has been bumpy, largely because of inflation and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to tamp down high prices.Despite previously suggesting the Fed could start lowering rates this year, Fed officials have recently indicated interest rates will remain elevated in the near future. While inflation has eased considerably since its peak in 2022, officials continue to say inflation remains high because it remains above the Fed’s target of 2% a year.After a tumultuous ride of inflation and high interest rates, voters are uncertain about what’s next. Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in May.So even though economic data, like GDP, implies strength in the economy, there’s a stubborn gap between the reality represented in that data – what economists use to gauge the economy’s health – and the emotional reality that underlies how Americans feel about the economy. In the poll, 55% think the economy is only getting worse.Some have called the phenomenon a “vibecession”, a term first coined by the economics writer Kyla Scanlon to describe the widespread pessimism about the economy that defies statistics that show the economy is actually doing OK.While inflation has been down, prices are at a higher level compared with just a few years ago. And prices are still going up, just at a slower pace than at inflation’s peak.Americans are clearly still reeling from price increases. In the poll, 70% of Americans said their biggest economic concern was the cost of living. About the same percentage of people, 68%, said that inflation was top of mind.The poll showed little change in Americans’ economic outlook from a Harris poll conducted for the Guardian on the economy in September 2023.A similar percentage of respondents agreed “it’s difficult to be happy about positive economic news when I feel financially squeezed each month” and that the economy was worse than the media made it out to be.Another thing that hasn’t changed: views on the economy largely depend on which political party people belong to. Republicans were much more likely to report feeling down about the economy than Democrats. The vast majority of Republicans believe that the economy is shrinking, inflation is increasing and the economy is getting worse overall. A significant but smaller percentage of Democrats, less than 40%, believed the same.Unsurprisingly, more Republicans than Democrats believe the economy is worsening due to the mismanagement of the Biden administration.Something both Republicans and Democrats agree on: they don’t know who to trust when it comes to learning about the economy. In both September and May, a majority of respondents – more than 60% – indicated skepticism over economic news.The economy continues to present a major challenge to Joe Biden in his re-election bid. Though he has tried to tout “Bidenomics”, or his domestic economy record, including his $1.2tn bipartisan infrastructure bill from 2022, 70% of Republicans and 39% of Democrats seem to think he’s making the economy worse.But it’s not all bad news for Biden. Republican voters were slightly more optimistic about the lasting impacts of “Bidenomics” than they were in the September Harris poll. Four in 10 Republicans, an 11 percentage-point increase from September, indicated they believe Bidenomics will have a positive lasting impact, while 81% of Democrats said the same. And three-quarters of everyone polled said they support at least one of the key pillars of Bidenomics, which include investments in infrastructure, hi-tech electronics manufacturing, clean-energy facilities and more union jobs.Yet even with these small strands of approval, pessimism about the overall economy is pervasive. It will be an uphill battle for Biden to convince voters to be more hopeful.“What Americans are saying in this data is: ‘Economists may say things are getting better, but we’re not feeling it where I live,’” said John Gerzema, CEO of the Harris Poll. “Unwinding four years of uncertainty takes time. Leaders have to understand this and bring the public along.” More

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      Trump prosecutor Fani Willis wins Georgia primary election

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      Fani Willis, the Fulton county district attorney overseeing Georgia’s expansive criminal case against Donald Trump and his allies for attempting to overturn the 2020 election, has won her Democratic primary bid for re-election with nearly 90% of the vote.Willis and Judge Scott McAfee – who won his primary election on Tuesday – are central figures in the prosecution against the former president and associates in his orbit accused of conspiring to overturn the 2020 presidential election.Willis will now face Republican lawyer Courtney Kramer in November. With her high name recognition, the advantages of incumbency and a hefty fundraising haul, Willis’s victory in the primary was not terribly surprising.The most prominent – and sweeping – charge handed down in an indictment by a grand jury in August 2023 alleged Trump and 18 co-defendants violated Georgia’s racketeering law in a criminal conspiracy to unlawfully change the results of the election.Trump allies, including the attorneys Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro, were also charged with forgery in connection with their efforts to send false pro-Trump electors to represent swing states that had in fact elected Joe Biden.Willis’s role in pursuing the most comprehensive prosecution against Trump has drawn her intense scrutiny. In March, the prosecutor who Willis hired to lead the case, Nathan Wade, resigned after revelations about a romantic relationship between him and Willis threatened to derail the prosecution.Last week, the Georgia court of appeals agreed to consider an appeal from Trump’s defense seeking to toss Willis from the case amid the allegations of unethical conduct.Amid the prosecution, Willis has also faced a barrage of threats and harassment. In May, a California resident was charged with threatening to injure Willis for her role in prosecuting Trump and his allies.The Associated Press contributed reporting More

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      Rudy Giuliani pleads not guilty to charges in Arizona fake electors case

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      Rudy Giuliani denied charges of illegally trying to keep Donald Trump in power after his 2020 election defeat as he was arraigned to appear before a court in Arizona along with 10 other defendants on Tuesday.Giuliani’s not guilty plea to nine felony charges came days after he was served an indictment as he left a party to celebrate his 80th birthday last Friday.Giuliani was the last of the 12 defendants to receive a summons to Tuesday’s hearing after the Arizona attorney general’s office said he had evaded efforts to serve him with a notice for several days.Reflecting the difficulties in tracking him down, the attorney general’s office requested a $10,000 cash bond for Giuliani, citing the problems it had serving him with an indictment and a general lack of cooperation, according to reports. No such request was made of other defendants.Others charged over their roles as false electors include two sitting lawmakers, state senators Jake Hoffman and Anthony Kern. The former Arizona Republican party chair Kelli Ward and her husband, Michael Ward, have been charged, as has Tyler Bowyer, a Republican national committeeman, and Turning Point USA executive, and Jim Lamon, who ran for US Senate in 2022.The others charged in the fake electors scheme are Nancy Cottle, Robert Montgomery, Samuel Moorhead, Lorraine Pellegrino and Gregory Safsten.Further defendants are expected to be arraigned next month, including Boris Epshteyn, a lawyer for Trump, and Mark Meadows, a former White House chief of staff.Trump himself is listed as “un-indicted co-conspirator 1” in the case but has not been charged.Before receiving the indictment, Giuliani, the former New York mayor and the legal spearhead of Trump’s lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen, had taunted the Arizona officials by posting a picture of himself on X challenging them to drop the case.“If Arizona authorities can’t find me by tomorrow morning: 1. They must dismiss the indictment; 2. They must concede they can’t count votes,” he captioned the post, which has since been deleted.After being served his indictment, Giuliani posted on Facebook that he did not know that Arizona officials were looking for him until “somebody told me there was a news article saying they were having a hard time finding me”.The indictment alleged that Giuliani “pressured” Arizona legislators and the Maricopa county board of supervisors to change the election result in the state, which Joe Biden won by more than 10,000 votes.He is also accused of urging Republican electors in Arizona to vote for Trump, in the face of the popular vote counts showing a victory for Biden.According to the testimony of Rusty Bowers, a former speaker of the Arizona house of representatives, Giuliani, in his efforts to persuade the state legislature to overturn the 2020 vote, told him and legislators that “we don’t have the evidence but we have lots of theories”.The case is the latest in a spate of legal woes to beset Giuliani – a former federal prosecutor once renowned for fighting mafia organised crime bosses – over his attempts to help Trump overturn the 2020 poll.He has filed for bankruptcy after being ordered to pay $148m in damages to two election workers in Georgia after they successfully sued for defamation. More

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      Jailed Trump adviser predicts mass deportations as second term priority

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      The first 100 days of a second Donald Trump presidency would see the sacking of the Federal Reserve head, Jerome Powell, mass deportations of undocumented immigrants and higher tariffs on Chinese imports, the ex-president’s former trade adviser Peter Navarro has said.Navarro, the maverick former head of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy in Trump’s first administration and a key loyalist, made the forecasts in an interview conducted from prison – where he is serving a four-month sentence for contempt of Congress.Speaking to the website Semafor, Navarro predicted that axing Powell – an establishment figure who was initially appointed as Federal Reserve chair by Trump in 2018 before being reappointed by Joe Biden – would be among the first acts of a newly re-elected President Trump.“Powell raised rates too fast under Trump and choked off growth,” Navarro told Semafor in responses emailed from a prison library in Miami, where he has been putting the finishing touches to a new book, The New Maga Deal, whose title references the former president’s Make America Great Again slogan.“To keep his job, Powell then raised too slowly to contain inflation under Biden,” Navarro said to Semafor. “My guess is that this punctilious non-economist will be gone in the first 100 days one way or another.”He predicted that Powell – who served in the presidential administration of the late George HW Bush – could be replaced by either Kevin Hassett or Tyler Goodspeed, both former chairs of the council of economic advisers.The first order of business in a second Trump presidency, however, would be intensifying a rumbling trade war with China, said Navarro, a noted hawk on Chinese trade policy.“At the top of the trade list is Trump’s Reciprocal Trade Act, first introduced by congressman Sean Duffy in 2019,” he wrote. “If countries refuse to lower their tariffs to ours, the president would have the authority to raise our tariffs to theirs.”Asked about unfinished business likely to be revisited, Navarro identified mass deportation and reinforcing a “buy American” policy.“Trump will quickly close down the border and begin mass deportations,” he said, accusing Biden of “importing a wave of crime and terrorism along with an uneducated mass that drives down the wages of Black, brown and blue-collar Americans”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionDespite – or perhaps partly because of – his incarceration for refusing to cooperate with the congressional investigation into Trump supporters’ 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol, Navarro remains an authoritative source on insider thinking in the former president’s camp.Several members of Trump’s inner circle have visited Navarro during his confinement in a minimum security facility, according to Semafor, fuelling speculation that he could play a key role in a future administration.Reinforcing that impression, Navarro said his book identified 100 actions that Trump would take in the first 100 days of a second presidency. He said he planned to attend the Republican national convention in mid-July – where Trump is expected to be anointed as the GOP presidential candidate – if he is released from prison in time.While he was close to the former president throughout his first administration, Navarro’s views on trade are considered fringe by many mainstream economists. He is a vocal critic of Germany, as well as China, and has accused both countries of currency manipulation. More

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      Lindsey Graham says Alito’s upside-down flag was ‘not good judgment’

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      Lindsey Graham has said it was “not good judgment” for the supreme court justice Samuel Alito to allow an upside-down American flag to be flown outside his home, marking what for him is a rare rebuke of a conservative judge.The Republican US senator’s comments on Monday to HuffPost’s Igor Bobic came after the New York Times’ recent report that an American flag was displayed upside down outside Alito’s home on 17 January 2021 – less than two weeks after supporters of Donald Trump carried out the deadly US Capitol attack and three days before Joe Biden’s inauguration.The inverted flag is a symbol which has been adopted by supporters of the former president’s false claims that Biden stole the presidency from him, and it reignited fears of political partisanship among the high court’s conservative supermajority, to which Alito belongs.Graham also alluded to claims from Alito that his wife, Martha-Ann, raised the flag in question after the couple became locked in a verbal dispute with a neighbor who used an expletive that is offensive to women. Nonetheless, the senior senator from South Carolina asserted: “It’s not good judgment to do that.“He said his wife was insulted and got mad – assume that to be true – but he’s still a supreme court justice,” Graham remarked. “And, you know, people have to realize that moments like that, to think it through.”As relatively restrained as Graham’s opinion was with respect to Alito, it was a notable shift from his usual supreme court rhetoric.In July 2023, after the supreme court had struck down federal abortion rights, Biden’s student debt forgiveness plan as well as a Colorado state law that compelled entities to afford same-sex couples equal treatment, Graham exalted the justices as “truly standing up for individual constitutional rights and limited government”.“I’ve never been prouder” of the US’s highest-ranking court of law, Graham said at the time. “Unfortunately, we should prepare for and get ready to witness accelerated attacks on the supreme court by radical liberal Democrats angry about these decisions.”The Times published its report about the upside-down flag at the Alitos’ as the supreme court weighs a decision on the extent of presidential immunity. That ruling is bound to affect at least one of Trump’s pending criminal cases heading into the Republican’s expected electoral rematch with his Democratic rival Biden in November.Jeremy Fogel, a former federal judge, told the Times “it would be better for the court” if Alito were not involved in cases stemming from the 2020 election. But Fogel said he was “pretty certain that [Alito] will see that differently”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe supreme court has adopted a stronger yet non-binding code of ethics for the nine justices on the bench after another conservative member, Clarence Thomas, came under scrutiny for accepting non-disclosed trips funded by a Republican billionaire. Alito, too, reportedly had failed to disclose a similar trip to Alaska.Court employees are under strict rules prohibiting public displays of political affiliation, including bumper stickers on vehicles.According to Reuters, the US flag should be displayed upside down only “as a signal of dire distress in instances of extreme danger to life or property”. More