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    Trump’s bizarre, vindictive incoherence has to be heard in full to be believed

    Donald Trump’s speeches on the 2024 campaign trail so far have been focused on a laundry list of complaints, largely personal, and an increasingly menacing tone.He’s on the campaign trail less these days than he was in previous cycles – and less than you’d expect from a guy with dedicated superfans who brags about the size of his crowds every chance he gets. But when he has held rallies, he speaks in dark, dehumanizing terms about migrants, promising to vanquish people crossing the border. He rails about the legal battles he faces and how they’re a sign he’s winning, actually. He tells lies and invents fictions. He calls his opponent a threat to democracy and claims this election could be the last one.Trump’s tone, as many have noted, is decidedly more vengeful this time around, as he seeks to reclaim the White House after a bruising loss that he insists was a steal. This alone is a cause for concern, foreshadowing what the Trump presidency redux could look like. But he’s also, quite frequently, rambling and incoherent, running off on tangents that would grab headlines for their oddness should any other candidate say them.Journalists rightly chose not to broadcast Trump’s entire speeches after 2016, believing that the free coverage helped boost the former president and spread lies unchecked. But now there’s the possibility that stories about his speeches often make his ideas appear more cogent than they are – making the case that, this time around, people should hear the full speeches to understand how Trump would govern again.Watching a Trump speech in full better shows what it’s like inside his head: a smorgasbord of falsehoods, personal and professional vendettas, frequent comparisons to other famous people, a couple of handfuls of simple policy ideas, and a lot of non sequiturs that veer into barely intelligible stories.Curiously, Trump tucks the most tangible policy implications in at the end. His speeches often finish with a rundown of what his second term in office could bring, in a meditation-like recitation the New York Times recently compared to a sermon. Since these policies could become reality, here’s a few of those ideas:
    Instituting the death penalty for drug dealers.
    Creating the “Trump Reciprocal Trade Act”: “If China or any other country makes us pay 100% or 200% tariff, which they do, we will make them pay a reciprocal tariff of 100% or 200%. In other words, you screw us and we’ll screw you.”
    Indemnifying all police officers and law enforcement officials.
    Rebuilding cities and taking over Washington DC, where, he said in a recent speech, there are “beautiful columns” put together “through force of will” because there were no “Caterpillar tractors” and now those columns have graffiti on them.
    Issuing an executive order to cut federal funding for any school pushing critical race theory, transgender and other inappropriate racial, sexual or political content.
    Moving to one-day voting with paper ballots and voter ID.
    This conclusion is the most straightforward part of a Trump speech and is typically the extent of what a candidate for office would say on the campaign trail, perhaps with some personal storytelling or mild joking added in.But it’s also often the shortest part.Trump’s tangents aren’t new, nor is Trump’s penchant for elevating baseless ideas that most other presidential candidates wouldn’t, like his promotion of injecting bleach during the pandemic.But in a presidential race among two old men that’s often focused on the age of the one who’s slightly older, these campaign trail antics shed light on Trump’s mental acuity, even if people tend to characterize them differently than Joe Biden’s. While Biden’s gaffes elicit serious scrutiny, as writers in the New Yorker and the New York Times recently noted, we’ve seemingly become inured to Trump’s brand of speaking, either skimming over it or giving him leeway because this has always been his shtick.Trump, like Biden, has confused names of world leaders (but then claims it’s on purpose). He has also stumbled and slurred his words. But beyond that, Trump’s can take a different turn. Trump has described using an “iron dome” missile defense system as “ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. They’ve only got 17 seconds to figure this whole thing out. Boom. OK. Missile launch. Whoosh. Boom.”These tangents can be part of a tirade, or they can be what one can only describe as complete nonsense.During this week’s Wisconsin speech, which was more coherent than usual, Trump pulled out a few frequent refrains: comparing himself, incorrectly, to Al Capone, saying he was indicted more than the notorious gangster; making fun of the Georgia prosecutor Fani Willis’s first name (“It’s spelled fanny like your ass, right? Fanny. But when she became DA, she decided to add a little French, a little fancy”).View image in fullscreenHe made fun of Biden’s golfing game, miming how Biden golfs, perhaps a ding back at Biden for poking Trump about his golf game. Later, he called Biden a “lost soul” and lamented that he gets to sit at the president’s desk. “Can you imagine him sitting at the Resolute Desk? What a great desk,” Trump said.One muddled addition in Wisconsin involved squatters’ rights, a hot topic related to immigration now: “If you have illegal aliens invading your home, we will deport you,” presumably meaning the migrant would be deported instead of the homeowner. He wanted to create a federal taskforce to end squatting, he said.“Sounds like a little bit of a weird topic but it’s not, it’s a very bad thing,” he said.These half-cocked remarks aren’t new; they are a feature of who Trump is and how he communicates that to the public, and that’s key to understanding how he is as a leader.The New York Times opinion writer Jamelle Bouie described it as “something akin to the soft bigotry of low expectations”, whereby no one expected him to behave in an orderly fashion or communicate well.Some of these bizarre asides are best seen in full, like this one about Biden at the beach in Trump’s Georgia response to the State of the Union:“Somebody said he looks great in a bathing suit, right? And you know, when he was in the sand and he was having a hard time lifting his feet through the sand, because you know sand is heavy, they figured three solid ounces per foot, but sand is a little heavy, and he’s sitting in a bathing suit. Look, at 81, do you remember Cary Grant? How good was Cary Grant, right? I don’t think Cary Grant, he was good. I don’t know what happened to movie stars today. We used to have Cary Grant and Clark Gable and all these people. Today we have, I won’t say names, because I don’t need enemies. I don’t need enemies. I got enough enemies. But Cary Grant was, like – Michael Jackson once told me, ‘The most handsome man, Trump, in the world.’ ‘Who?’ ‘Cary Grant.’ Well, we don’t have that any more, but Cary Grant at 81 or 82, going on 100. This guy, he’s 81, going on 100. Cary Grant wouldn’t look too good in a bathing suit, either. And he was pretty good-looking, right?”Or another Hollywood-related bop, inspired by a rant about Willis and special prosecutor Nathan Wade’s romantic relationship:“It’s a magnificent love story, like Gone With the Wind. You know Gone With the Wind, you’re not allowed to watch it any more. You know that, right? It’s politically incorrect to watch Gone With the Wind. They have a list. What were the greatest movies ever made? Well, Gone With the Wind is usually number one or two or three. And then they have another list you’re not allowed to watch any more, Gone With the Wind. You tell me, is our country screwed up?”He still claims to have “done more for Black people than any president other than Abraham Lincoln” and also now says he’s being persecuted more than Lincoln and Andrew Jackson:“All my life you’ve heard of Andrew Jackson, he was actually a great general and a very good president. They say that he was persecuted as president more than anybody else, second was Abraham Lincoln. This is just what they said. This is in the history books. They were brutal, Andrew Jackson’s wife actually died over it.”You not only see the truly bizarre nature of his speeches when viewing them in full, but you see the sheer breadth of his menace and animus toward those who disagree with him.His comments especially toward migrants have grown more dehumanizing. He has said they are “poisoning the blood” of the US – a nod at Great Replacement Theory, the far-right conspiracy that the left is orchestrating migration to replace white people. Trump claimed the people coming in were “prisoners, murderers, drug dealers, mental patients and terrorists, the worst they have”. He has repeatedly called migrants “animals”.View image in fullscreen“Democrats said please don’t call them ‘animals’. I said, no, they’re not humans, they’re animals,” he said during a speech in Michigan this week.“In some cases they’re not people, in my opinion,” he said during his March appearance in Ohio. “But I’m not allowed to say that because the radical left says that’s a terrible thing to say. “These are animals, OK, and we have to stop it,” he said.And he has turned more authoritarian in his language, saying he would be a “dictator on day one” but then later said it would only be for a day. He’s called his political enemies “vermin”: “We pledge to you that we will root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country,” he said in New Hampshire in late 2023.At a speech in March in Ohio about the US auto industry he claimed there would be a “bloodbath” if he lost, which some interpreted as him claiming there would be violence if he loses the election.Trump’s campaign said later that he meant the comment to be specific to the auto industry, but now the former president has started saying Biden created a “border bloodbath” and the Republican National Committee created a website to that effect as well.It’s tempting to find a coherent line of attack in Trump speeches to try to distill the meaning of a rambling story. And it’s sometimes hard to even figure out the full context of what he’s saying, either in text or subtext and perhaps by design, like the “bloodbath” comment or him saying there wouldn’t be another election if he doesn’t win this one.But it’s only in seeing the full breadth of the 2024 Trump speech that one can truly understand what kind of president he could become if he won the election.“It’s easiest to understand the threat that Trump poses to American democracy most clearly when you see it for yourself,” Susan B Glasser wrote in the New Yorker. “Small clips of his craziness can be too easily dismissed as the background noise of our times.”But if you ask Trump himself, these are just examples that Trump is smart, he says.“The fake news will say, ‘Oh, he goes from subject to subject.’ No, you have to be very smart to do that. You got to be very smart. You know what it is? It’s called spot-checking. You’re thinking about something when you’re talking about something else, and then you get back to the original. And they go, ‘Holy shit. Did you see what he did?’ It’s called intelligence.” More

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    No Labels national director says he will vote for Joe Biden

    The national director of No Labels, the third-party group which on Thursday said it would not run a candidate in the US presidential election, will now vote for Joe Biden, not Donald Trump.“Me, as a person?” Joe Cunningham told Fox News. “I would vote for Biden over Trump.”Cunningham did not elaborate. He was also offered the chance to choose Robert F Kennedy Jr, the vaccine sceptic and conspiracy theorist running as an independent.Asked why No Labels gave up on its quest, for which it said it raised $60m and secured ballot access in key states, Cunningham said: “No Labels was looking for a hero and a hero never emerged.“We’ve been very straightforward and upfront and honest with the American public that we were gonna field this ticket if two conditions were met. Number one, if Americans wanted another option, which is definitely, box is checked.”Biden and Trump are indeed historically unpopular. Kennedy has polled in double figures. But amid a barrage of warnings that a No Labels candidate stood to damage Biden most, amid warnings of Trump’s threat to US democracy, the group ultimately gave up on its search.“Number two,” Cunningham said, “if we’re able to find candidates that we believe have a pathway to victory. And that’s where we ran into the trouble. At the end of the day, we weren’t able to find candidates we felt had a straightforward path of victory.”Candidates courted reportedly included Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who opposed Trump longest in the Republican primary; Larry Hogan, the former Maryland governor now running for US Senate; Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor who ran an explicitly anti-Trump Republican primary campaign; and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, a former wrestler and Hollywood action star.No Labels also suffered a major blow last week with the death at 82 of its founding chair, Joe Lieberman, the former Democratic and independent senator and vice-presidential nominee.“The establishment does not reward dissent,” Cunningham said. “So we found it difficult to find the leaders to step up with the courage to be able to say, ‘OK, we are putting our country first, and, you know, damn the consequences within our respective parties.’”Groups opposed to the No Labels’ third-party effort celebrated its climbdown.Matt Bennett, of the centre-left group Third Way, said: “A year and a half ago, we were the first to warn that No Labels’ presidential bid was doomed, dangerous, and would divide the anti-Trump coalition. Joined by a wide array of allies, we waged a campaign to dissuade any serious candidate from joining their ticket.“We are deeply relieved that everyone rejected their offer, forcing them to stand down. While the threat of third-party spoilers remains, this uniquely damaging attack on President Biden and Democrats from the centre has at last ended.”On Friday, in a call with reporters and supporters, No Labels leaders said the group would stay engaged in election-year politics.Jay Nixon, a Democratic governor of Missouri turned director of No Labels ballot access efforts, said: “Twenty-one states, successful in any litigation we had, were were on a path to get that completed.”He also said: “This year we will pursue two goals at once. We will do all in our power … in the next seven months to ensure that the major [presidential] candidates compete for commonsense voters rather than speaking solely to their respective party bases. I think that is a significant responsibility.“This means defining the issues in this moment. [It] stands for border security, spending, the cost of living, supporting our allies abroad, all of that commonsense agenda …“That means also supporting commonsense congressional candidates that can serve as a check on the executive branch. On that front [we have a] very significant standard bearer in former [Maryland] governor Larry Hogan [who is] running for the Senate [as a Republican]. There are folks like that. He is not alone.”Nixon and other leaders who spoke on Friday did not say another presidential effort was on the horizon in 2028.But another senior No Labels official, Andy Bursky, told the Wall Street Journal: “I wouldn’t rule anything out. The organisation has not been beaten by this effort, it has been strengthened by this effort.” More

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    Biden says ‘union labor and American steel’ will be used to rebuild Baltimore bridge – as it happened

    Joe Biden vowed to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge as quickly as possible, using “union labor and American steel”, in a nod to his administration’s attempts to promote domestic manufacturing.“We’re going to move heaven and earth, to rebuild this bridge as rapidly as humanly possible. We’re gonna do so with union labor and American steel,” he said, speaking on the shore of Baltimore harbor with the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge at his back.He continued:
    We will support Maryland and Baltimore every step of the way to help you rebuild and maintain all the business and commerce that’s here now.
    The chorus of Democratic senators asking Joe Biden to rethink his support for Israel has grown louder in the wake of the killing of seven aid workers earlier this week. Lawmakers aligned with the president are asking him to cancel planned weapons sales, or cut off military support altogether if Israel does not do a better job of protecting civilians. Congress is currently out, with the Senate and House resuming business in Washington DC next week, but in a sign of how fraught the issue has become, Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer made no mention of approving more aid to Israel in a letter sent to lawmakers ahead of their return.Here’s what else happened today:
    In a visit to Baltimore, Biden pledged “to move heaven and earth” to rebuild the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge, using “union labor and American steel”.
    Democratic senator Chris Murphy warned that Israel’s conduct in Gaza could worsen the threat of terrorism worldwide.
    Student debt relief is reportedly getting a second go from Biden, who will next week announce a plan to reduce what borrowers owe that could survive a court challenge.
    In response to a bid by a Republican lawmaker to rename the biggest airport in the Washington DC-area for Donald Trump, a group of Democratic congressmen wants to bestow his name on a Florida federal prison.
    After today’s earthquake that was felt in New York City, New Jersey and elsewhere in the north-east, rightwing congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene said: “God is sending America strong signs to tell us to repent.”
    As he closed his remarks, Joe Biden again called on Congress to allow the federal government to pay for the cost of rebuilding the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore, arguing Washington had picked up the bill following previous disasters.“I fully intend … that the federal government cover the cost of building this entire bridge, all of it,” Biden said. “As we’ve done in other parts of the country in similar circumstances. I stand here, I call on Congress to authorize this effort as soon as possible.”The president also said he would support efforts to get those responsible for the collapse to pay for the cost of repairs:
    My administration is committed absolutely committed to ensuring that parties responsible for this tragedy pay to repair the damage, and be held accountable to the fullest extent the law will allow.
    It’s unclear whether Congress will take Biden up on his request. In the House, the conservative Republican Freedom Caucus said they will only support it if Biden backs down on a ban on new natural gas export projects:Joe Biden vowed to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge as quickly as possible, using “union labor and American steel”, in a nod to his administration’s attempts to promote domestic manufacturing.“We’re going to move heaven and earth, to rebuild this bridge as rapidly as humanly possible. We’re gonna do so with union labor and American steel,” he said, speaking on the shore of Baltimore harbor with the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge at his back.He continued:
    We will support Maryland and Baltimore every step of the way to help you rebuild and maintain all the business and commerce that’s here now.
    He then turned to remembering the six construction workers fixing potholes on the Francis Scott Key Bridge who were killed when it collapsed.“Most were immigrants but … were Marylanders, hardworking, strong and selfless. After pulling a night shift fixing potholes, they were on a break when the ship struck. Just seconds before, one of the men named Carlos, who was only 24, left a message for his girlfriend. He had said, ‘we just poured cement. We’re waiting for it to dry,’” Biden said.“To all the families and loved ones who are grieving, we have come here to grieve with you,” Biden said.Joe Biden started his remarks off on a note of solidarity.“Military members and first responders, most importantly to the people of Maryland, I’m here to say your nation has your back and I mean it. Your nation has your back.”Joe Biden is now starting his much-delayed remarks on the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore.He was introduced by Maryland’s Democratic governor Wes Moore, who said: “With the support of President Biden and his team, I know that Marylanders of this generation and the next will look up and once again, they will see the Francis Scott Key Bridge, and they will see it standing tall.”We will let you know what the president says.In Baltimore, Joe Biden has received a briefing from the army corps of engineers and the Maryland department of transportation on their efforts to clear the wreckage of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and reopen the port of Baltimore.Army corp of engineers brigadier general John Lloyd told Biden of the plan to remove the large section of bridge that landed on the cargo ship Dali. The section weighs 5,000 tons and stands 125 feet high. Lloyd said they want to cut the metal away from the ship so it can be moved, and have 51 divers and 12 cranes working on the scene.If Donald Trump is convicted of mishandling confidential documents at the conclusion of his upcoming criminal trial in Florida, he could be obligated to serve any sentence in a federal prison bearing his name.Three Democratic congressmen on Friday introduced a House bill seeking to rename Miami’s federal correctional institute for the former president, a mocking response to Pennsylvania Republican Guy Reschenthaler’s proposal to rebrand Dulles international airport in a similar vein.It’s an “effort to make Trump feel more comfortable in his future home,” according to the left-leaning website Meidas Touch, which reported the move by Florida congressman Jared Moskowitz, Gerry Connolly of Virginia and John Garamendi of California.Moskowitz in particular is no stranger to trolling Republicans, having introduced a motion to impeach Joe Biden during a House oversight committee meeting last month. A frequent critic of Trumpist committee chair Jim Comer of Kentucky, who led the evidence-free effort to impeach the president, Moskowitz prodded in vain to find a Republican to second his motion.The new bill seeks to recognize the Donald J Trump Federal Correctional Institution “in any law, regulation, map, document, paper, or any other record of the United States”.With a Republican majority in the House, it stands as much chance of becoming law as Rechenthaler’s measure does of clearing the Democrat-led Senate and White House.Trump is currently facing 88 federal charges in four criminal cases, including the one in Florida. He was arraigned last June at the federal courthouse in Miami as a near-circus took place outside.As we wait for Joe Biden to make remarks in Baltimore, rightwing congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has once again found a way to draw attention to herself by implying that the earthquake that rattled the north-east today was, uh, God’s will:Maybe it was, maybe it wasn’t. As for what we know for sure about the tremor, here’s a link to our coverage:Joe Biden has arrived in Baltimore at the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge, where he’s meeting with first responders.His helicopter flight took him over the wreckage of the span, as well as the Dali, the cargo ship that struck it and remains trapped in the debris:The president is schedule to give a speech “reaffirming his commitment to the people of Baltimore” at 2.30pm. We’ll cover it live on this blog.Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson will not endorse Joe Biden again this year, a blow of sorts for the president in his looming rematch with Donald Trump.Speaking to Fox News, the wrestler turned Hollywood action star said: “Am I happy with the state of America right now? Well, that answer’s no. Do I believe we’re gonna get better? I believe in that, I’m an optimistic guy. And I believe we can do better.”Long the subject of rumours about political ambitions, Johnson reportedly fielded an approach from No Labels, the centrist third-party group that now says it won’t run a candidate this year.In late September 2020, he endorsed Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris, saying: “You guys are both experienced to lead, you’ve done great things. Joe you’ve had such an incredible career, and you’ve led with such great compassion, heart, drive, and soul … Kamala, you have been a district attorney, a state attorney, a US senator. You are smart and tough. I have seen you in those hearings.”But in the Fox News interview broadcast on Friday, he said: “The endorsement that I made years ago with Biden was what I thought was the best decision for me at that time. I thought back then, when we talked about, ‘Hey, you know, I’m in this position where I have some influence,’ and it was my job then … to exercise my influence and share … who I’m going to endorse.“Am I going to do that again this year? That answer’s no.“I realise now going into this election, I will not do that. My goal is to bring this country together. I will keep my politics to myself. It is between me and the ballot box. Like a lot of us out there, not trusting of all politicians, I do trust the American people and whoever they vote for that is my president and who I will support 100%.”Johnson has not disavowed entering presidential politics himself. In 2021, he said: “I don’t think our Founding Fathers EVER envisioned a six-four, bald, tattooed, half-Black, half-Samoan, tequila drinking, pick-up truck driving, fanny pack-wearing guy joining their club – but if it ever happens it’d be my honour to serve you, the people.”The latest bramble for Donald Trump in his legal thorny thicket this week is that New York judge Juan Merchan on Friday blocked the former US president’s bid to subpoena Comcast-owned NBCUniversal for material related to the documentary the media company made about Stormy Daniels.The judge is overseeing Trump’s criminal trial, which begins on 15 April in a historic first for a former US president.Reuters adds that the trial stems from a hush-money payment to Daniels, a porn star and adult film producer, over an old affair she claimed she had with Trump and which she was ready to talk to the press about during the 2016 presidential campaign.Trump denies the sexual liaison and also denies the charges against him in the New York case, one of four criminal cases he faces and the first to go to trial, alleging election financing impropriety as part of a hush-money payment and cover up, also involving model Karen McDougal.The documentary, titled Stormy, came out recently and centers Daniels talking about her life, especially since the scandal ultimately erupted into public view. She is expected to testify for the prosecution in Manhattan court.Joe Biden has departed for Baltimore and there are only thin pickings from the “chopper talk” at the White House, unfortunately.The Guardian’s Washington bureau chief David Smith is on pool duty today and dutifully brings us this report that at the south entrance to the White House, the president said he had spoken to the governor of New Jersey, Phil Murphy, about the earthquake in the region. The words “all right” were audible.A reporter asked if POTUS had threatened military aid to Israel. POTUS replied only: “I asked them to do what they’re doing.”Then he boarded the Marine One helicopter and left.Joe Biden is on his way to Baltimore now, where the US military has said it hopes to reopen the port to shipping traffic, at least on a limited basis, by the end of the month.The US president will take an aerial tour of the major arterial road bridge that collapsed when a huge container ship hit one of its main stone piers 10 days ago.Biden will be briefed on response efforts from the team in charge of salvage and logistical operations, including the US Coast Guard and army corps of engineers.Maryland governor Wes Moore, Senators Ben Cardin and Chris Van Hollen will be with the president, as will congressman Kweisi Mfume and Baltimore’s mayor, Brandon Scott, alongside other city, state and federal officials.After touring the site of the disaster, where six men who were working on the bridge at the time of the collision were killed, Biden will meet the bereaved families.The chorus of Democratic senators asking Joe Biden to rethink his support for Israel has grown louder in the wake of the killing of seven aid workers earlier this week. Lawmakers aligned with the president are asking him to cancel planned weapons sales, or cut off military support altogether if Israel does not do a better job of protecting civilians. Congress is currently out, with the Senate and House resuming business in Washington DC next week, but in a sign of how fraught the issue has become, Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer made no mention of approving more aid to Israel in a letter sent to lawmakers ahead of their return.Here’s what else is going on today:
    Biden plans to later this afternoon visit the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, where he’ll discuss efforts to get the city’s economically vital port reopened, and meet with families of the six men killed in the disaster.
    Democratic senator Chris Murphy warned that Israel’s conduct in Gaza could worsen the threat of terrorism worldwide.
    Student debt relief is reportedly getting a second go from Biden, who will next week announce plans to reduce what borrowers owe that could survive a court challenge. More

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    Polls show Trump winning key swing states. That’s partly a failure of the press | Margaret Sullivan

    I learned the hard way to be skeptical about the predictive power of public opinion polls.I remember election night 2016 all too well, as I hit delete on my partially pre-written Washington Post column and instead tried to look into the future of a Trump presidency. It was a future that wasn’t supposed to happen.An entire nation of journalists was doing much the same. Not everyone, but a whole lot of us.Given that searing memory, I reacted to the recent much-trumpeted Wall Street Journal poll about the 2024 presidential race with, well, not exactly a shrug, but not a primal scream either.That was the poll that said Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in six of seven crucial battleground states, the very ones most likely to determine who gets elected in November. The former president is ahead, according to the Journal’s poll, in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina; the two candidates are tied in Wisconsin.That doesn’t mean anything definitive seven months away from the election. Yet – as someone who thinks another four years of Trump would be a disaster – I believe there’s something to be learned here.Rather than dismiss these findings, think about what they tell us, even if they do so imperfectly and even if they lack any real predictive power.One of the things these numbers suggest is that the journalists are not getting the truth across to citizens on some key points (or if they are, that truth is being ignored).The poll respondents claim that one of their big concerns is the economy. If that’s the case, they should be happy with Biden. Among the factors: low inflation, significant growth and low unemployment. Paul Krugman, the Nobel laureate economist, wrote recently: “The economic news in 2023 was almost miraculously good.” (Even the cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner, he notes, was down 4.5% last year.)If the economy is that strong and that important to voters – and if Biden can take at least some of the credit – why isn’t it coming across? That’s something for the Biden campaign, primarily; but it’s also something for media people since journalists are supposed to be communicating information so that citizens can vote with knowledge. That should be a higher priority than generating profits, ratings and clicks, but one eventually despairs that it ever will be.Another major voter concern, of course, is Biden’s age. He’s 81; Trump will be 78 in June. They’re both old; both have memory gaps and both exhibit confusion at times.Only one of them, however, talks about some migrants as “animals” or predicts a “bloodbath” for the country if he loses. Only one is facing dozens of charges related to crimes including trying to overturn a legitimate election. Only one has promised to be a dictator on day one of his presidency and only one has allies that are meticulously plotting a radical revamping of how America works.A fine Associated Press story carried the headline, “Trump’s plans if he returns to the White House include deportation raids, tariffs and mass firings.” The story notes that the ideas are extreme and the groundwork determined. “Some of his current ideas would probably end up in court or impeded by Congress,” it said. “But Trump’s campaign and allied groups are assembling policy books with detailed plans.”Poll respondents also claim to be deeply concerned about the state of democracy in America.They should be, of course, but what they mean by that differs widely. Do they know as much about Trump’s authoritarian blueprints as they do about how Biden walks these days with a stiffer gait?I’m not quite as dismissive as the media critic Mark Jacob, who scoffed that there’s “only one poll that matters. It’s seven months from now. The rest is just empty calories filling airtime.”And I do take seriously the analysis by Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo, who looked at the Journal poll and several others, comparing them with earlier ones, and concluding that Biden is making slow, uneven progress.That progress, Marshall thinks, may accelerate as more Americans realize that, like it or not, these two candidates are the actual choices. No Nikki Haley or Gretchen Whitmer is waiting in the wings.Polls can’t predict. But they can warn. And maybe a red-alert warning is what low-information Americans – and our horserace-obsessed media – need most of all.
    Margaret Sullivan is a Guardian US columnist writing on media, politics and culture More

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    Should Biden be worried about losing Black voters to Trump? – podcast

    Several recent polls have suggested that Donald Trump may be on course to receive more support from Black voters than any Republican presidential nominee in history. Some have argued the polling isn’t representative enough.
    This week, Jonathan Freedland speaks to the historian and author Leah Wright Rigueur about whether or not Trump can really win over more Black voters than Joe Biden can afford to lose. Or should his main concern be those disaffected voters who don’t turn to Trump, but instead don’t turn out at all, choosing to stay home?

    How to listen to podcasts: everything you need to know More

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    Trump Media deal faces calls for inquiry over alleged ‘influence peddling’

    Democratic groups escalated calls on Thursday for Congress to investigate Donald Trump’s social media company Trump Media after a report that it relied partly on emergency loans in 2022 traced back to a Russian-American under federal criminal investigation to make it to its stock market debut.The move increased political scrutiny into the merger between Trump Media Technology Group and the blank-check company Digital World Acquisition – which could net Trump about $4bn – as federal prosecutors secured guilty pleas from two investors who insider-traded on the deal.In a three-page letter on Thursday, the Democratic-aligned group Congressional Integrity Project pressed the Republican House oversight chair, James Comer, to launch a parallel congressional investigation into the Trump Media merger and hold hearings into the nature of the loans.“We are calling on you to investigate possible influence peddling and corruption involving a former president and current presidential candidate,” wrote the Congressional Integrity Project’s executive director, Kyle Herrig.The request came a day after the Guardian reported that Trump Media was kept afloat in 2022 with loans provided in part by a Russian-American businessman named Anton Postolnikov, when a securities investigation delayed the original merger date and imperiled its cash reserves.The delay led Trump Media to seek bridge financing, including from an entity called ES Family Trust, which operated through an account at Paxum Bank, a small bank registered on the Caribbean island of Dominica that is best known for providing financial services to the porn industry.Leaked documents obtained by the Guardian made clear that ES Family Trust operated like a shell company for Postolnikov, who co-owns Paxum Bank and became a subject of the criminal investigation into the Trump Media merger.The concern surrounding the loans to Trump Media is that ES Family Trust may have been used to complete a transaction that Paxum itself could not, as it did not offer loans in the US because it lacked a US banking license and is not regulated by the FDIC.“The American people deserve to know the circumstances around ES Family Trust’s loan to Trump,” Herrig wrote. “It is also imperative to determine whether there was any quid pro quo discussed.”There is no indication that Trump Media had any idea about the nature of the loans beyond the fact that they were opaque, nor has the company or its executives been accused of any wrongdoing. A lawyer for Trump Media called the story a “hoax” in a statement after it was published.Still, the Trump Media merger has drawn scrutiny because Trump’s stake in the company amounts to significant increase in his net value.Even if Trump sold only some of his position, he would probably gain a major windfall that could be used to pay about $500m in legal costs stemming from his various civil and criminal cases. That would ease the burden on his political action committees, which are now paying the bills.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionIn addition, Postolnikov’s connection to the loans raised new questions about the involvement of Michael Shvartsman, who pleaded guilty with his brother to securities fraud weeks before he was due to go to trial on charges of insider trading and money laundering over the Trump Media merger.The Guardian reported that the creation papers for ES Family Trust named Shvartsman as a successor trustee. ES Family Trust stands to gain from the Trump Media merger because the $8m was loaned in the form of convertible notes, meaning it converted to a stake in the post-merger company.While precise figures can only be known by Trump Media, ES Family Trust’s stake in Trump Media is now worth between $20m and $40m, even after the company’s share price plummeted after a poor earnings report.“The full extent of his involvement in the trust is unclear, and getting to the bottom of that fits within your mandate as chairman of the House oversight committee,” Herrig wrote of Shvartsman.Democratic activists have been eager to attack Trump’s business deals as a counterweight to Republicans’ impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden, which has unsuccessfully tried to tie the president to business deals done by his son Hunter Biden, in an effort to show corruption or influence peddling.The Biden impeachment inquiry hit a major setback in February after the prosecutors charged an FBI informant with fabricating claims being used by Republicans for their allegations, that Biden and his son each sought $5m in bribes from a Ukrainian company. More

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    New book details Steve Bannon’s ‘Maga movement’ plan to rule for 100 years

    Steve Bannon, Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign chair and White House strategist, believed before the 2020 election and the January 6 attack on Congress that a “Maga movement” of Trump supporters “could rule for a hundred years”.“Outside the uniparty,” the Washington Post reporter Isaac Arnsdorf writes in a new book, referring to Bannon’s term for the political establishment, “as Bannon saw it, there was the progressive wing of the Democratic party, which he considered a relatively small slice of the electorate. And the rest, the vast majority of the country, was Maga.“Bannon believed the Maga movement, if it could break out of being suppressed and marginalised by the establishment, represented a dominant coalition that could rule for a hundred years.”Arnsdorf’s book, Finish What We Started: The Maga Movement’s Ground War to End Democracy, will be published next week. The Post published an excerpt on Thursday.A businessman who became a driver of far-right thought through his stewardship of Breitbart News, Bannon was Trump’s campaign chair in 2016 and his chief White House strategist in 2017, a post he lost after neo-Nazis marched in Charlottesville that summer.He remained close to Trump, however, particularly as Trump attempted to overturn his 2020 defeat by Joe Biden.That attempt culminated in the attack on Congress of 6 January 2021, when supporters Trump told to “fight like hell” to block certification of Biden’s win attacked the US Capitol.Nine deaths have been linked to the attack, including law enforcement suicides. More than 1,200 arrests have been made and hundreds of convictions secured. Trump was impeached for inciting the insurrection but acquitted by Senate Republicans.Notwithstanding 88 criminal charges for election subversion, retention of classified information and hush-money payments, and multimillion-dollar penalties in civil cases over fraud and defamation, the latter arising from a rape claim a judge called “substantially true”, Trump won the Republican nomination with ease this year.As a Trump-Biden rematch grinds into gear, Bannon remains an influential voice on the far right, particularly through his War Room podcast and despite his own legal problems over contempt of Congress and alleged fraud, both of which he denies.The “uniparty”, in Bannon’s view, as described by Arnsdorf, is “the establishment [Bannon] hungered to destroy. The neocons, neoliberals, big donors, globalists, Wall Street, corporatists, elites.”“Maga” stands for “Make America great again”, Trump’s political slogan.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionArnsdorf writes: “In his confidence that there were secretly millions of Democrats who were yearning to be Maga followers and just didn’t know it yet, Bannon was again taking inspiration from Hoffer, who observed that true believers were prone to conversion from one cause to another since they were driven more by their need to identify with a mass movement than by any particular ideology.”Eric Hoffer, Arnsdorf writes, was “the ‘longshoreman philosopher’, so called because he had worked as a stevedore on the San Francisco docks while writing his first book, The True Believer [which] caused a sensation when it was published in 1951, becoming a manual for comprehending the age of Hitler, Stalin and Mao”.Bannon, Arnsdorf writes, “was not, like a typical political strategist, trying to tinker around the edges of the existing party coalitions in the hope of eking out 50% plus one. Bannon already told you: he wanted to bring everything crashing down.“He wanted to completely dismantle and redefine the parties. He wanted a showdown between a globalist, elite party, called the Democrats, and a populist, Maga party, called the Republicans. In that match-up, he was sure, the Republicans would win every time.”Now, seven months out from election day and with Trump and Biden neck-and-neck in the polls, Bannon’s proposition stands to be tested again.
    Biden v Trump: What’s in store for the US and the world?On Thursday 2 May, 3pm EDT join Tania Branigan, David Smith, Mehdi Hasan and Tara Setmayer for the inside track on the people, the ideas and the events that might shape the US election campaign. Book tickets here or at theguardian.live More

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    New Biden rule aims to protect US federal employees if Trump is elected

    Joe Biden’s administration issued a new rule on Thursday making it harder to fire thousands of federal employees, hoping to head off the risk that if Donald Trump wins back the White House in November he won’t be able to bully and decimate the workforce as he imposes the radical ideologies he’s been pushing on the campaign trail, escalating what he did while in office.New regulations coming out of the government’s chief human resources agency, the Office of Personnel Management, will bar career civil servants from being reclassified as political appointees or as other at-will workers – who are more easily dismissed from their jobs.The move comes in response to so-called “Schedule F”, an executive order Trump issued in 2020 that sought to allow for reclassifying tens of thousands of the 2.2m federal employees and thus reduce their job security protections.Biden nullified Schedule F upon taking office. But if Trump were to win the election for the Republicans and revive it during a second administration, he could dramatically increase number of federal employees – about 4,000 – who are considered political appointees and typically change with each new president.In a statement issued Thursday, Biden called the rule a “step toward combatting corruption and partisan interference to ensure civil servants are able to focus on the most important task at hand: delivering for the American people”.The potential effects of the change are wide-reaching because the number of federal employees who might have been affected by Schedule F under Trump is unclear.The National Treasury Employee Union used freedom of information requests to obtain documents suggesting that workers such as office managers and specialists in human resources and cybersecurity might have been among those subject to reclassification.The Biden administration’s new rule moves to counter a future Schedule F order by spelling out procedural requirements for reclassifying federal employees and clarifying that civil service protections accrued by employees can’t be taken away, regardless of job type. It also makes clear that policymaking classifications apply to noncareer, political appointments.“It will now be much harder for any president to arbitrarily remove the nonpartisan professionals who staff our federal agencies just to make room for hand-picked partisan loyalists,” said Doreen Greenwald, president of National Treasury Employees Union, in a statement.Groups advocating for ethical government, and liberal think tanks and activists, praise the rule. They viewed cementing federal worker protections as a top priority given that replacing existing government employees with new, more conservative alternatives is key to the conservative Heritage Foundation’s nearly 1,000-page playbook known as Project 2025.That plan calls for vetting and potentially firing scores of federal workers and recruiting conservative replacements to wipe out what leading Republicans have long decried as the “deep state” governmental bureaucracy that allegedly worked against Trump from the inside. This is a debunked concept that even Trump acolyte Steve Bannon has dismissed as untrue despite being part of the hard right movement that first aggressively promoted the idea and continues to market it.Skye Perryman, president and CEO of Democracy Forward, which has led a coalition of nearly 30 advocacy organizations supporting the rule, called it “extraordinarily strong” and said it can effectively counter the “highly resourced, anti-democratic groups” behind Project 2025.“This is not a wonky issue, even though it may be billed that way at times,” Perryman said. “This is really foundational to how we can ensure that the government delivers for people and, for us, that’s what a democracy is about.”The final rule, which runs to 237 pages, is being published in the federal registry and set to formally take effect next month.Trump as president could direct the Office of Personnel Management to draft new rules, although those would face legal challenges.Rob Shriver, deputy director of the Office of Personnel Management, said the new rule ensures the protections “cannot be erased by a technical, HR process” that “Schedule F sought to do”.“This rule is about making sure the American public can continue to count on federal workers to apply their skills and expertise in carrying out their jobs, no matter their personal political beliefs,” Shriver said on a call with reporters.The Associated Press contributed reporting. More