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    Tommy Tuberville is not acting: he really is Trump’s useful idiot | Sidney Blumenthal

    Tommy Tuberville plays the fool with such conviction that he makes it difficult to imagine a motive behind his idiocy. He is really, truly, actually not acting. In ordinary times others might qualify as the stupidest member of the Senate, but none have matched his performance at a moment of profound and precarious international crisis. Tuberville’s freeze on promotions of general staff officers unless the federal government denies reproductive health services – abortions – to women in the military has significantly disrupted readiness, upended the chain of command and otherwise endangered national security. Of 852 general and flag officers, he has placed 387 holds so far. By the end of the year, 90% of generals and admirals will be out of position. The chief of naval operations, Admiral Lisa Franchetti, says it will take two or three years to fix. One hundred and twenty officers are now being forced to perform two jobs.When General Eric Smith, the commandant of the Marine Corps, who was performing several jobs at once, suffered a heart attack, Tuberville cavalierly dismissed any responsibility. “Come on, give me a break. This guy is going to work 18-20 hours a day no matter what. That’s what we do. I did that for years,” he said.Tuberville was a football coach before he was elected the senator from Alabama. Denigrating the marine commandant, Tuberville suggested that coaching a game was as hard as running the Marine Corps. “Coach” is his identity. “Email Coach” reads the contact information on his Senate website.Donald Trump first gave Tuberville his seal of approval in Tuberville’s fight against the former attorney general Jeff Sessions. Trump had fired Sessions for recusing himself instead of suppressing the justice department investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Sessions attempted a comeback in 2020, running for his old Senate seat from Alabama; Tuberville, with Trump’s support, won the GOP nomination. The Coach had no qualifications for public service other than fame as Coach: he just happened to be the lucky dummy in one of Trump’s grudge matches.By freezing military appointments, Tuberville keeps the cameras focused on himself as he struts up and down the field. He is not up for re-election until 2026, but since he has placed his hold on military officers his campaign contributions have rocketed from a negligible amount at the beginning of this year to nearly half a million dollars by July. His hold has turned into his sweet spot for a Trumpian grift. Every day is game day.But Tuberville’s gain is more than the military’s defeat; it is the Republican party’s loss, at both ends of Tuberville’s play. He is wilfully and enthusiastically hammering national security while inflaming the abortion issue. Since the Dobbs decision Republicans have been desperately seeking to escape the political consequences of their decades-long crusade culminating in the supreme court decision overturning Roe v Wade. Tuberville has contrived a unique formula to wage the culture war by undermining the military, or, more likely, had that formula engineered for him.Idiots can still be useful idiots. There are larger purposes involved in his scam kulturkampf. His subversion of the military is not just collateral damage. It is not the unintended consequence, but the overriding motive. His abortion ban is both context and pretext. Tuberville has opened Trump’s strategy for a second term to replace the professional class of officers pledged to the constitution with a collection of flunkies who will salute his command, legal or not. Tuberville is a blunt instrument, but, however crude, he is the available tool.The Heritage Foundation – which has produced a blueprint for a Trump second term, the 2025 Transition Project, which includes firing the entire federal civil service and replacing it with Trump loyalists, and invoking the Insurrection Act on day one of Trump II to deploy the military against political dissidents – has evidently been behind Tuberville’s attack on the military. It circulated a letter of several far-right ex-military figures to Senate leaders demanding that they “Support Senator Tuberville’s Fight Against Woke Military”, which they denounced for “advancing the leftwing social agenda”.Heritage published an article by one of its fellows claiming that Tuberville is the “one man” standing in the way of a dastardly conspiracy led by Biden: “Replacing the officer class of police and military ranks with politicized ideologues who will bend to a transformative dogma is a strategy that has worked in places like the Soviet Union, Cuba and Venezuela … Tuberville, thus, is stopping the promotion of woke apparatchiks.” Like Trump, the Heritage cadres project their own scheme on to their enemies.For months, the leaders of the Senate of both parties allowed Tuberville to stand on the rule that gives every senator the right to put a hold on an appointment. They tolerated Tuberville’s stupidity in order not to alter the sacrosanct rule, an anachronism that makes every senator a king. Behind the scenes, they importuned him to relent. Some Republicans suggested that if he lifted his hold on the entire military officer corps, they wouldn’t care if he chewed on a smaller bone. Perhaps he might put a hold on Derek Chollet, the highly competent and experienced counselor in the state department, who has been nominated to be the under-secretary of defense for policy, or maybe other worthy appointees. Their broader cynicism fell before his dim-witted cynicism. No dice.Coach is not team friendly. He is not clubbable in the most exclusive club in the country. Tuberville was unembarrassed when a group of military spouses, the Secure Families Initiative, blasted his “political showmanship” and urged him to stop using “military families as leverage”. He was unashamed when veterans’ groups pointed out that he had failed to donate his Senate salary to veterans’ charities as he had promised. He did not care when the Veterans of Foreign Wars begged him to stop. He was indifferent when the secretaries of the army, navy and air force asked him to end his blockade. “Just another example of woke propaganda,” Tuberville tweeted.The former CIA director Michael Hayden, a retired air force general, tweeted in response to a question about whether Tuberville should be removed from the armed services committee: “How about the human race?” Tuberville, in faux alarm, called the sarcastic remark a “politically motivated assassination” and reported Hayden to the Capitol police – a good basis for another fundraising plea to the yahoos. Hayden replied: “I was surprised to wake up this morning and discover that many Maganuts had lost their minds over my suggestion that ‘Coach’ Tuberville not be considered a member of the human race. I stand by that view. I’m wishing you all a nice day even the intransigent Tommy Tuberville.”Finally, on 1 November, several Republican senators, all veterans, vented their wrath in an extraordinary display of exasperation. They blew away Tuberville’s excuse that he wasn’t damaging readiness as “ridiculous”.“We are going to look back at this episode and just be stunned at what a national-security suicide mission this became,” said Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska. “I do not respect men who do not honor their word,” said Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa.The Senate rule may now be amended. With the approval of the Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, Senator Jack Reed, the chairman of the armed services committee, has introduced a bill to allow a vote on military nominations in batches without unanimous consent. The Reed bill would pass if nine Republicans joined the Democrats.Tuberville remains unyielding despite the equivalent of his blackball from the club. His communications director, Steven Stafford, a longtime Republican operative, sent an email to anti-abortion groups to mobilize them, so “that any Republican who votes for this will be primaried. In my view, if enough mushy middle Republicans come out in opposition, then this is over. But they only need nine squishes. And they will get there if we don’t act.”The email violated Senate ethics rules prohibiting “official resources” for being used for campaign purposes. Republican senators were enraged at the threat. “I have some words and they’re not polite so I’m not going to say them,” said Senator Ernst. The chairman of the Republican Senate Campaign Committee, Senator Steve Daines of Montana, issued a statement calling for Stafford’s “termination”.Tuberville instinctively reacted with abject cowardice. “That was not me,” he said, blaming his staffer. “He did a ‘no no.’ It wasn’t my statement. I totally disagree with that. We’re teammates here.” He wanted back in the good graces of the club. Stafford was compelled to make a Soviet purge-trial like confession: “It is not the opinion of Coach, it was not on behalf of Coach.” Coach left his wounded behind. Think Ted Lasso as moronic and malignant.Tuberville’s stupidity is both vain and in vain. By his damage to others he invariably damages himself. He projects his stupidity through blind arrogance and compounds it through pride in his presumption of superior knowledge. “Our government wasn’t set up for one group to have all three branches of government – wasn’t set up that way,” Tuberville has said. “You know, the House, the Senate and the executive.”Defending his hold on military promotions, Tuberville treated an interview on CNN in July as a teaching opportunity. “I’m totally against anything to do with racism,” he began, before instantly going off the rails. “But the thing about being a white nationalist is just a cover word, for the Democrats, now, where they can use it, to try to make people mad across the country. Identity politics. I’m totally against that. But I’m for the American people. I’m for military.” When the interviewer told him that white nationalists believe in white supremacy, he replied, “Well, that’s some people’s opinion … My opinion of a white nationalist, if somebody wants to call them a white nationalist, to me, is an American … Well, that’s just a name that it’s been given.” When the interviewer raised “real concerns about extremism”, Tuberville answered: “So, if you’re going to do away with most white people in this country, out of the military, we got huge problems.”In his stupidity, Tuberville confuses his ignorance with ingenuity. He is scornful when challenged. His stupidity may appear to be a brand of fanaticism, but that would mistake his mule-like stubbornness for a leap of faith. On his mission from God, Coach thinks he is the highest authority. His smugness protects against doubt. Nobody can fool the fool who fools himself. He plays three-card monte tricking himself that wrecking the military is owning the libs. His malice is a defense mechanism. The greater the outrage against him, the greater his certainty, if not celebrity and fundraising. Coach wants to be seen as the hero. The greater his apparent futility, the more he believes he is a giant among men. He is fourth and goal, calling the play for a touchdown. Onward Christian soldiers, marching as to war!Before the 2020 election, even though he was not yet elected to the Senate, Tuberville plotted the rejection of electoral college certification of the results. “You’ll see what’s coming,” he said. “You’ve been reading about it in the House. We’re going to have to do it in the Senate.”On January 6, as the mob rampaged through the Capitol, approaching the Senate chamber, Tuberville, sworn in as a senator three days before, played a sycophantic Rosenkrantz and Guildenstern bit role. Trump phoned Tuberville. At first, he misdialed Senator Mike Lee of Utah, who handed Tuberville his phone. Tuberville informed Trump that the Secret Service had just evacuated Mike Pence, who Trump was pressuring to reject certification. “They’ve taken the vice-president out,” Tuberville told Trump. “They want me to get off the phone, I gotta go.” Later, Tuberville had lapses of memory of the time of the call and what Trump said to him. “I don’t remember, because they were dragging me. They had me by the arm.” Tuberville was one of eight Republican senators to vote against certification.One obscure aspect of Trump’s coup was his foiled attempt to place his loyalists within the CIA and the Pentagon. He was resisted by the CIA director Gina Haspel, the secretary of defense Mark Esper and chairman of the joint chiefs, General Mark Milley. Trump had come into the presidency thinking of the senior military as “my generals”, a personal palace guard, but one by one he forced them out. “A bunch of dopes and babies,” he called them. “Some of the dumbest people I’ve ever met in my life,” he said. He has been especially hostile to former chairman of the joint chiefs, Milley, who resisted Trump’s idea to bomb Iran after he lost the election to foster a crisis before the electoral college vote on January 6. “If you do this, you’re gonna have a fucking war,” Milley told him.Milley believed that Trump might stage a coup, a “Reichstag” moment to precipitate the suspension of the constitution, and he told the congressional leadership about the military: “Our loyalty is to the US constitution.” After January 6, Trump felt “my generals” had betrayed him. Where was his Mike Flynn?When Milley’s thwarting of Trump’s secret plan to strike Iran was exposed in an article by Susan Glasser in the New Yorker in July 2021, Trump was furious. He had brought the memo he had ordered Milley to produce to Mar-a-Lago along with other national security documents. Agitated by the revelation, he waved the papers before some supporters at his Florida estate, saying of Milley and the military “these are bad, sick people”. He falsely claimed that it was Milley who was pushing him to attack Iran. “This was him. They presented me this – this is off the record but – they presented me this. This was him. This was the defense department and him … This was done by the military and given to me.” This incident at Mar-a-Lago now figures in the federal indictment of Trump for mishandling classified documents.At his retirement on 29 September, Milley pointed said: “We don’t take an oath to a king or a queen or to a tyrant or a dictator. And we don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator. We don’t take an oath to an individual. We take an oath to the constitution, and we take an oath to the idea that is America, and we’re willing to die to protect it.” Trump responded by trashing him as a “Woke train wreck,” whose treason was “so egregious that, in times gone by, the punishment would have been DEATH!”Now, Tuberville is performing Trump’s early retribution against a military that he believes confounded his coup and preparing the groundwork for his takeover in 2025, which will include replacing the nation’s top military command with his lackeys to impose the Insurrection Act against opponents – “my generals”, at last. It doesn’t matter whether Tuberville fully understands the play. He just has to run his pattern.
    Sidney Blumenthal is the author of The Permanent Campaign, published in 1980, and All the Power of the Earth: The Political Life of Abraham Lincoln, 1856-1860, the third of a projected five volumes. He is the former assistant and senior adviser to President Bill Clinton and senior adviser to Hillary Clinton More

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    Iowa governor breaks neutrality to endorse Ron DeSantis for president

    The Iowa governor, Kim Reynolds, broke her neutrality in the Republican primary and endorsed Ron DeSantis for president on Monday, saying she does not believe Donald Trump can win the general election.“I believe he can’t win,” Reynolds said in an interview with NBC. “And I believe that Ron can.”The endorsement gives DeSantis the support of a deeply popular governor (she has an 81% approval rating among likely caucus-goers, according to a Des Moines Register/NBC poll). It also gives him fuel as he tries to close a significant gap with the former president in polling, both in Iowa and across the US. Trump is currently polling at 45.6% in Iowa, according to the FiveThirtyEight average of polls, while DeSantis is at 17.1%. The Florida governor is also trying to break away from Nikki Haley, with whom he is battling for second place in the race.DeSantis is betting his presidential campaign on a strong showing in Iowa, which will hold its caucuses for the GOP nomination on 15 January.Iowa has long held the first caucuses in the presidential nominating contests and its governors do not typically endorse candidates. Reynolds had previously told others, including Trump, she would stay neutral in the contest, the New York Times reported in July. She reversed that on Monday.“As a mother and as a grandmother and as an American, I just felt like I couldn’t stand on the sidelines any longer,” she said on Monday, according to the Des Moines Register. “We have too much at stake. Our country is in a world of hurt. The world is a powder keg. And I think it’s just really important that we put the right person in office.”DeSantis has long sought Reynolds’ support and she has been floated as a potential running mate for him, Trump has publicly criticized her for not showing sufficient gratitude for his efforts to help her win the governorship in 2018.“It will be the end of her political career in that MAGA would never support her again, just as MAGA will never support DeSanctimonious again,” he said in a post on Truth Social on Monday. “Two extremely disloyal people getting together … they can now remain loyal to each other because nobody else wants them!!!”Reynolds said on Monday she didn’t think her endorsement would divide the party.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“When this is over, we’re Republicans and we get behind whoever our candidate is,” she told the Des Moines Register. “I happen to think it’s going to be Ron DeSantis. I believe that’s who it’s going to be. But we are Republicans, and when this is done, we get behind whoever our nominee is and move forward.” More

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    The emperor has no clothes. But were the election today, Trump would win

    One has signed historic climate and infrastructure legislation, steered the economy past a recession and rallied the west against Vladimir Putin. The other spent Monday on trial for fraud ranting and raving against a judge in a puerile display from the witness stand.And if a presidential election were held today, Joe Biden would lose to Donald Trump by a lot, according to the latest swing state polls.Maybe it’s the pandemic, or inflation, or tribalism, but it is increasingly hard to deny that something strange and perverse is happening in American politics.Since Biden took office the US economy has added a record 14m jobs while his list of legislative accomplishments has earned some comparisons with those of Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson. Yet in a recent Gallup poll the 80-year-old’s overall approval rating was just 37%.Trump, meanwhile, is facing 91 criminal indictments in Atlanta, Miami, New York and Washington DC, some of which relate to an attempt to overthrow the US government. Yet the 77-year-old is running away with a Republican primary election from which Mike Pence, the vice-president who opposed the coup, made an ignominious early exit.On Monday Trump was in court for a New York civil business fraud case in which he has already been fined $15,000 for twice violating a limited gag order that prevents him from criticising court staff.The case threatens to tear down the Trump Organization, revealing that the emperor has no clothes. Voters do not seem to care. Swing state voters say they trust Trump over Biden on the economy by a 22-point margin, 59% to 37%, according to this weekend’s poll from the New York Times and Siena College.The same poll showed Trump beating Biden in five of the six most important battleground states exactly a year before the presidential election, although if Trump were to be convicted of criminal charges against him, some of his support would erode by about 6%.Conventional wisdom used to hold that Trump’s myriad legal woes would help in the Republican primary and hurt him in the presidential election. Now even that no longer seems certain as Trump appears politically bulletproof and Democrats sweat over the disconnect between Biden’s record and his flagging numbers.It seems no event or behavior in court hurts those dynamics. In the sober trappings of a Manhattan courtroom, Trump’s belligerent, boorish conduct was thrown into sharper relief than at his knockabout political rallies. Trump repeatedly clashed with Judge Arthur Engoron, prompting him to warn that he might remove the ex-president from the witness stand if he did not answer questions directly.As if pleading with parents to discipline an unruly child, the judge entreated Trump’s lawyers: “I beseech you to control him if you can. If you can’t, I will. I will excuse him and draw every negative inference that I can.”Engoron added: “This is not a political rally. This is a courtroom.”It was a telling observation, given the way in which Trump has consciously and deliberately conflated his court appearances with his 2024 election campaign, frequently addressing reporters in the hallway. The mountain of legal troubles that would end most candidacies has turned into a USP of his White House run.There is no better symbol of this than the mugshot taken in August when Trump surrendered and was booked at the Fulton county jail in Atlanta. For any other politician, it would be career-ending; for any other citizen, a badge of shame. For Trump, however, it has become a valuable to asset to slap on campaign merchandise, make money and rally the base.Again, on Monday, Trump knew well that his courtroom antics would grab media attention. He told reporters: “So while Israel is being attacked, while Ukraine is being attacked, while inflation is eating our country alive, I’m down here.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“These are all political opponent attack ads by the Biden administration, their poll numbers are terrible. The New York Times came back with a poll that I’m leading all over the place, but it’s a very unfair situation.”He whined petulantly: “I’m sure the judge will rule against me because he always rules against me. This is a very unfair trial, very, very unfair and I hope the public is watching.”He rambled, hurled insults, boasted about his properties and his wealth and questioned the motivations of the Democratic New York attorney general, Letitia James, who brought the case and is seeking $250m in fines. He said: “This is a political witch-hunt and I think she should be ashamed of herself.”As a distraction technique, it worked. Neal Katyal, a lawyer who has argued dozens of cases before the supreme court, wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter: “Everyone is talking about his temper tantrums, instead of talking about his commissions of fraud and that he is a cheat. He’s already lost the merits of the case, so this is his best play.”It was a show of impunity from a man who demonstrated on 6 January 2021 that rules and rituals mean nothing to him. Few of Trump’s critics doubt that he would burn democracy down given half the chance.But Trump also acknowledged that his company did not provide accurate estimates of the value of apartment towers, golf courses and other assets. New York state lawyers said those values were pumped up to win better financing terms, and Engoron has already ruled that they were fraudulent.Trump emerged from court after five hours of testimony into his happy place: a barrage of camera flashes, live coverage on the cable news networks CNN, Fox News and MSNBC, a chance to talk about his poll numbers. Anyone traumatised by the 2016 election might be suffering flashbacks.“I think it’s a very sad day for America,” said Trump, channeling grievance, resentment and victimhood as only he can. The polls suggest these are the most potent forces in politics right now. Biden has a year to find the antidote. More

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    Speeches and grandstanding: Trump scores few if any legal points in court

    When Donald Trump took the witness stand Monday morning, he started what might turn out to be his most expensive rally ever.This was supposed to be his chance to give his side of the case in a $250m fraud trial that threatens to end his business career in New York state. On the stand, Trump mentioned crime in New York City and “election interference” as if he were in front of a crowd.“Many people are leaving New York… you have the attorney general sitting here all day long, it’s a shame what’s going on,” Trump said. “We have a hostile judge, and it’s sad.”The former president’s appearance on the witness stand would feel familiar to anyone who’s ever seen a glimpse of Trump’s rallies. Outside a huge line of reporters waited to get in. Banks of TV cameras parked outside the venue. Protesters shouted. The trial judge is the sole decider of this case and the fine that is at stake. But when Trump comes to town, the circus follows.Even his testimony was reminiscent of his rallies. His statements about his real estate company were wistful, boastful and bizarre. “If I want to build something, I built a very big ballroom, a big ballroom that was built by me, it was very large, very beautiful,” Trump said when talking about using the value of Mar-a-Lago. Talking about his Scottish golf club, he promised: “At some point, at a very old age, I’ll do the most beautiful thing you’ll ever see,” he didn’t reveal what.But these pastoral passages were short-lived and overshadowed by an anger, seemingly uncontrolled at times on the stand, that was hot and furious. And the audience – at least the one that matters in the court – was having none of it.At multiple points during Trump’s testimony, Judge Arthur Engoron interrupted the former president for making “speeches” on the stand, instead of answering the prosecutor’s questions.The usually affable judge has tired of Trump and his lawyers’ grandstanding.“Did you ask for an essay on brand value?” Engoron asked the prosecutor after Trump started speaking at length about how his brand value upped the worth of his properties.Within an hour of Trump being on the stand, Engoron appeared to grow more impatient with Trump’s rambling.“I beseech you to control him or I will,” Engoron told Trump’s lawyers after Trump said “all you have to do is look at a picture of a building” to understand its value.Trump’s lawyers often stood up quickly to come to Trump’s defense, saying that he was delivering “brilliant answers” and referring to him as the “former and assumed-to-be chief executive of the United States”. When Trump’s lawyer Christopher Kise told the judge that he should hear what Trump should have to say, Engoron snapped.“No, I’m not here and these people are not here, the office of the attorney general is not here to hear him. We’re here to hear him answer the questions,” Engoron said as Trump shook his head. When Trump’s lawyers protested the judge’s comment, he sternly told them to “sit down”.Trump scored few if any legal points in the court. He often returned to the same lines of arguments, lines that the judge has rejected or questioned. He argued that the financial documents were past the statute of limitations or that he had enough cash to make lenders happy. His favorite argument seemed to be that his financial disclosures contain a disclaimer or “worthless” clause that means the banks never relied upon them.Engoron has already called that argument worthless and at one point, implored Trump to read his pre-trial ruling, where he ruled the disclosures “do not insulate defendants from liability”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“If you want to read about the disclaimer clause, read my opinion,” Engoron told Trump.Before lunch, it looked like an exasperated Engoron was so fed up of Trump’s non-answers he would throw Trump out of the courtroom. Even Trump seemed – briefly – chastened. Asked how it was going during the break, he motioned zipping his mouth shut.That didn’t last long.“The fraud is on behalf of the court,” a furious Trump barked after lunch, turning red, hands waving back and forth in front of the witness stand. He pointed to Engoron sitting next to him and, later, to New York attorney general Letitia James. “He’s the one that didn’t value the property correctly. … It’s a terrible thing you’ve done, you believed the political hack back there and that’s unfortunate.”A pause settled over the courtroom. Prosecutor Kevin Wallace looked up at Trump. “You done?” he asked the former president.“Done,” Trump responded.The trial continues. More

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    Biden faces calls not to seek re-election as shock poll rattles senior Democrats

    Senior Democrats have sounded the alarm after an opinion poll showed Joe Biden trailing the Republican frontrunner Donald Trump in five out of six battleground states exactly a year before the presidential election.Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, with Biden ahead in Wisconsin, according to a survey published on Sunday by the New York Times and Siena College. Biden beat Trump in all six states in 2020 but the former president now leads by an average of 48% to 44% across these states in a hypothetical rematch.Additional findings released on Monday, however, showed that if Trump were to be convicted of criminal charges against him, some of his support in some swing states would erode by about 6%, which could be enough to tip the electoral college in Biden’s favour.Even so, the survey is in line with a series of recent polls that show the race too close for comfort for many Trump foes as voters express doubts about Biden’s age – the oldest US president in history turns 81 later this month – and handling of the economy, prompting renewed debate over whether he should step aside to make way for a younger nominee.“It’s very late to change horses; a lot will happen in the next year that no one can predict & Biden’s team says his resolve to run is firm,” David Axelrod, a former strategist for President Barack Obama, wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “He’s defied CW [conventional wisdom] before but this will send tremors of doubt thru the party – not ‘bed-wetting,’ but legitimate concern.”Bill Kristol, director of the Defending Democracy Together advocacy organisation and a former Republican official, tweeted: “It’s time. President Biden has served our country well. I’m confident he’ll do so for the next year. But it’s time for an act of personal sacrifice and public spirit. It’s time to pass the torch to the next generation. It’s time for Biden to announce he won’t run in 2024.”Andrew Yang, who lost to Biden in the 2020 Democratic primary, added: “If Joe Biden were to step aside, he would go down in history as an accomplished statesman who beat Trump and achieved a great deal. If he decides to run again it may go down as one of the great overreaches of all time that delivers us to a disastrous Trump second term.”The New York Times and Siena poll suggests that Biden’s multiracial and multigenerational coalition, critical to his success in 2020, is decaying. Voters under age 30 favour the president by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Trump’s edge in rural regions.Black voters – a core Biden demographic – are now registering 22% support in these states for Trump, a level that the New York Times reported was unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times. The president’s staunch support for Israel in the current Middle East crisis has also prompted criticism from young and progressive voters.Survey respondents in swing states say they trust Trump over Biden on the economy by a 22-point margin. Some 71% say Biden is “too old”, including 54% of his own supporters. Just 39% felt the same about Trump, who is himself 77 years old.Electability was central to Biden’s argument for the nomination three years ago but the poll found a generic, unnamed Democrat doing much better with an eight-point lead over Trump. Congressman Dean Phillips of Minnesota has launched a long-shot campaign against Biden in the Democratic primary, contending that the president’s anaemic poll numbers are cause for a dramatic change of course.Next year’s election could be further complicated by independent runs from the environmental lawyer Robert Kennedy Jr and the leftwing academic Cornel West.Trump is dominating the Republican presidential primary and plans to skip Wednesday’s third debate in Miami, Florida, in favour of holding a campaign rally. He spent Monday taking the witness stand in a New York civil fraud trial. He is also facing 91 criminal indictments in four jurisdictions.The Biden campaign played down the concerns, drawing a comparison with Democratic incumbent Obama’s 2012 victory over Republican Mitt Romney. Biden’s spokesperson, Kevin Munoz, said in a statement: “Predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later. Don’t take our word for it: Gallup predicted an eight-point loss for President Obama only for him to win handedly a year later.”Munoz added that Biden’s campaign “is hard at work reaching and mobilizing our diverse, winning coalition of voters one year out on the choice between our winning, popular agenda and Maga [Make America great again] Republicans’ unpopular extremism. We’ll win in 2024 by putting our heads down and doing the work, not by fretting about a poll.”The margin of sampling error for each state in the Sunday poll is between 4.4 and 4.8 percentage points, which is greater than Trump’s reported advantage in Pennsylvania.Charlie Sykes, host of the Bulwark podcast and a former conservative radio host, wrote on X: “Ultimately, 2024 is not about re-electing Joe Biden. It is about the urgent necessity of stopping the return of Donald J Trump to the presidency. The question is how.” More

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    Why are Republicans still supporting Donald Trump? – video

    Despite facing multiple criminal charges, Donald Trump remains the frontrunner in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. But in South Carolina, a traditionally conservative southern state, a split is opening up between Trump loyalists and more moderate Republicans who are fearful of what their party has become. The Guardian’s Oliver Laughland and Tom Silverstone investigate More

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    Blumenthal: Democrats have ‘work cut out’ as Biden trails Trump in five swing states

    Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal said on Sunday that the party has “its work cut out for us” in response to new polling that shows President Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump in five of six swing states.The survey by the New York Times and Siena College of voters in six battleground states, was released with 365 days to go until the 2024 presidential election.Biden is ahead in Wisconsin, but Trump topped the survey in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan. The margins ranged from three to 10 percentage points, and reflected an erosion of support among the fragile, multiracial coalition that elected Biden over Trump in 2020.Speaking to CNN’s State of the Union, Blumenthal of Connecticut, said: “I was concerned before these polls, and I’m concerned now. These presidential races over the last couple of terms have been very tight. No one is going to have a runaway election here. It’s going to take a lot of hard work, concentration, resources. And so we have our work cut out for us.”However, Blumenthal praised Biden’s record, pointing to his diplomacy on the Israel-Hamas war – which has dismayed some on the progressive side of the party – saying the president’s leadership “has been critical … where he’s forged a bipartisan consensus in favor of a peaceful outcome with a Palestinian state as the goal.”Dr Don Levy, director of Siena College Research Institute, said the states in the poll would be crucial in 2024: “While Biden has a narrow three-point lead in Wisconsin, Trump leads by 11 points in Nevada, seven points in Georgia, five points in Arizona and three points in both Michigan and Pennsylvania.“If the 2024 matchup featured a Democrat other than Biden running against Trump, the ‘generic’ Democrat would be ahead by seven to 12 points in five of the states and ahead by three points in Nevada,” Levy said.Across the six battleground states, 59% disapprove of the Job Biden is doing as president and 71% said he was too old, while only 38% said Trump was too old. Biden is aged 80 and Trump is 77.Asked about the survey, the Biden campaign said there was a long way to go before election day. “Predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later. Don’t take our word for it: Gallup predicted an 8 point loss for President Obama only for him to win handedly a year later,” Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz said in a statement, referring to Democrat Barack Obama’s 2012 victory over Republican Mitt Romney.Munoz added that Biden’s campaign “is hard at work reaching and mobilizing our diverse, winning coalition of voters one year out on the choice between our winning, popular agenda and Maga (Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan) Republicans’ unpopular extremism. We’ll win in 2024 by putting our heads down and doing the work, not by fretting about a poll.”Biden’s multiracial and multigenerational coalition appears to be fraying, the polls showed.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionVoters under age 30 favor Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Trump’s edge in rural regions, the polls showed.Black voters – a core Biden demographic – are now registering 22% support in these states for Trump, a level the New York Times reported was unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.
    Reuters contributed to this report More

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    Trump angry over trials but happy with attack and delay strategy, insiders say

    Donald Trump has appeared at times angrily under siege as he stews over his predicament in the New York civil fraud case, according to people close to the former president, particularly furious in recent weeks with the witness testimony that could result in the end of the Trump Organization empire.The rulings from the presiding New York state supreme court justice Arthur Engoron, who found that Trump and co-defendants were liable for fraud and ordered all of Trump’s adult children to testify at the ongoing trial, for instance, have taken a toll.“So sad to see my sons being PERSECUTED in a political Witch Hunt by this out of control, publicity seeking, New York State Judge, on a case that should have NEVER been brought,” Trump partially wrote in one Truth Social post. “Legal Scholars Scream Disgrace!”And Trump was furious when the judge imposed a gag order against him in the New York case, as well as when the judge enforced $15,000 in fines last week after deciding that Trump violated its prohibitions by assailing the judge’s law clerk.But Trump appears to have been otherwise content with his legal situation, including with the multiple criminal cases that are marching towards trial, the people said – an observation that the playbook he reverts to when feeling threatened, to attack and delay, has lately been successful.That strategy has not always worked out for Trump. In fact, it has sometimes created more serious problems, such as when he attacked the prosecutors investigating his retention of classified documents – only to have his comments used against him in the subsequent indictment.But the well-worn legal playbook of attacking and distracting in recent weeks has brought Trump victories in court that have actually buoyed and emboldened him, the people said, despite the mounting legal peril he stares down from his multiple pending civil and criminal cases and a series of key fellow defendants in the Georgia election interference case taking plea deals.That playbook was on display in the New York civil fraud case on Friday, when Trump’s lawyer Chris Kise repeatedly fired missiles during the trial, sparring with the judge over notes he was being passed by the same law clerk that Trump had been fined for disparaging.It was unclear whether it came at Trump’s direction or whether it was his lawyer’s initiative, but the attacks had an effect: the prosecutor from the New York attorney general’s team complained it affected his presentation, and it also served to distract from Eric Trump’s sometimes shaky testimony.Trump has been particularly jubilant at how the playbook has given him wins in the federal criminal cases, the people said, starting with the judge in the classified documents case appearing inclined to push back key deadlines that could result in delaying the start of the trial.The former president has made it no secret that his overarching legal strategy in his criminal cases is to seek delay, ideally beyond the 2024 election in November, in the hopes that winning re-election could enable him to potentially pardon himself or direct his attorney general to drop the charges.The prosecutors in the office of special counsel Jack Smith had explicitly complained that Trump’s requests to postpone some deadlines – because the trail dates being so close together could cause them to “collide” – amounted to a request to delay the trial.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBut encouraged by Trump’s lead lawyer Todd Blanche, who in an audacious moment blamed prosecutors for the hectic trial schedule because they had the gall to charge him with crimes in Florida in Washington, the judge suggested she would make adjustments as requested by Trump’s team.Trump has also expressed satisfaction with his lawyers pushing back in the 2020 election subversion case, the people said, including with the lawyers who asked the DC circuit on Friday to temporarily pause the gag order prohibiting him from assailing prosecutors and potential trial witnesses.In that matter, however, the playbook showed its penchant for biting him long-term: Trump had the gag order temporarily lifted pending appeal, but drew a massively unfavorable panel of judges nominated by Democratic presidents, who are almost certain to ultimately rule against him. More