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    The Guardian view on Trump’s world: from Venezuela to Iran to Greenland, the madness is the method | Editorial

    The US president delights in his inconsistency. But his short-term victories have profound long-term costs for his country and the worldThe Middle East was braced on Wednesday night, but the anxious petitioning of Gulf states and Iran’s attempts to appease the US president appeared to win out – at least for the moment. No bombs fell on Tehran. After all his threats, and with military options under discussion in Washington, Donald Trump stepped back, announcing that “the killing [of protesters] has stopped”.Despite the telecommunications blackout, it seems clear that a ruthless regime has shed still more blood than in previous protest crackdowns. Rights groups say that thousands have been killed and vast numbers arrested; one official spoke of 2,000 deaths. Witnesses compared the streets to a war zone. If the large-scale killings have indeed ebbed, that is probably because Iranians have been terrified out of the streets – for now, at least. Iran’s foreign minister chose Fox News to insist no hangings were imminent, in case the identity of the message’s one-man audience was in any doubt. But while retribution may have been postponed, it will not be cancelled as it should be: the calls for the regime’s downfall are seen as an existential threat. The Iranian authorities can wait. Mr Trump will move on.Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. Continue reading… More

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    The crisis whisperer: how Adam Tooze makes sense of our bewildering age

    Whether it’s the financial crash, the climate emergency or the breakdown of the international order, historian Adam Tooze has become the go-to guide to the radical new world we’ve enteredIn late January 2025, 10 days after Donald Trump was sworn in for a second time as president of the United States, an economic conference in Brussels brought together several officials from the recently deposed Biden administration for a discussion about the global economy. In Washington, Trump and his wrecking crew were already busy razing every last brick of Joe Biden’s legacy, but in Brussels, the Democratic exiles put on a brave face. They summoned the comforting ghosts of white papers past, intoning old spells like “worker-centered trade policy” and “middle-out bottom-up economics”. They touted their late-term achievements. They even quoted poetry: “We did not go gently into that good night,” Katherine Tai, who served as Biden’s US trade representative, said from the stage. Tai proudly told the audience that before leaving office she and her team had worked hard to complete “a set of supply-chain-resiliency papers, a set of model negotiating texts, and a shipbuilding investigation”.It was not until 70 minutes into the conversation that a discordant note was sounded, when Adam Tooze joined the panel remotely. Born in London, raised in West Germany, and living now in New York, where he teaches at Columbia, Tooze was for many years a successful but largely unknown academic. A decade ago he was recognised, when he was recognised at all, as an economic historian of Europe. Since 2018, however, when he published Crashed, his “contemporary history” of the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath, Tooze has become, in the words of Jonathan Derbyshire, his editor at the Financial Times, “a sort of platonic ideal of the universal intellectual”. Continue reading… More

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    How far will Europe go to defend Greenland from Trump?

    The president’s disregard for international law exposes the continent’s reliance on the US. Leaders have hardened their language in support of Denmark, but the price of confronting him is high• Don’t get This Is Europe delivered to your inbox? Sign up hereDonald Trump’s threat to take control of Greenland “one way or the other” has left the territory and its sovereign power Denmark reeling and the rest of Europe scrambling for ways to stop him.After the shock of the US’s military raid on Venezuela Trump’s ambition to put Greenland next on his hitlist is no longer being seen in Europe as bluster or fantasy, but a serious intention, driven by ideology, neo-imperial expansionism, US thirst for critical minerals, or all of the above. Continue reading… More

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    Europe must now tell Trump that enough is enough – and cut all ties with the US | Alexander Hurst

    How do you retain a space of democracy in a world that is reverting to violent conquest? By building a protective moat of federalism around it‘He keeps encouraging me … to choose between Europe and the US. That would be a strategic mistake for our country,” Keir Starmer said in response to Ed Davey’s question in the House of Commons last week, about whether a US move against Greenland would mean the end of Nato.What about Europe, though? As Danish and Greenlandic ministers prepared to face JD Vance in the White House, the question was would Europe finally choose between Europe and the US? Will its leaders have the courage to tell the full truth – that the US isn’t simply abandoning its allies and destroying the international order but is now in the position of active and hostile predation by force – and more importantly, to act on it? To offer Denmark moral and material backing, and Greenland a future of self-determination and membership, rather than subservience to US resource plunder?
    Donald Trump has already set the tone by saying the US will seize Greenland “one way or the other”, and no part of the triumvirate around him is trying to hide their imperial intentions any more. Not the nepotists and grifters amassing ever greater private fortunes. Not the white supremacist ideologues drawing inspiration from Ein Volk, Ein Reich, Ein Führer! to post “One Homeland. One People. One Heritage”, via official US government social media accounts. Not the techno-nihilists salivating to mine every bit of Greenland’s mineral resources and rule their own neofeudal city states on its coast.
    When Trump says that the only constraint on his exercise of power is “my own morality”, that means there is no constraint. Like Vladimir Putin, he will keep grabbing until someone imposes a limit on him.Alexander Hurst writes for Guardian Europe from Paris. His memoir, Generation Desperation, is published this month Continue reading… More

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    Why Russia’s economy is unlikely to collapse even if oil prices fall | Phillip Inman

    Hopes that tougher sanctions and lower oil prices could derail Putin’s war effort underestimate how far the Kremlin has rewired its economyPacing inside the Kremlin last weekend, as news feeds churned out minute-by-minute reports of Donald’s Trump’s Venezuelan coup, Vladimir Putin may have been wondering what it would mean for the price of oil.Crude oil has lubricated the Russian economy for decades – far more than gas exports to Europe – and so the threat of falling oil prices, prompted by US plans for control of Venezuela’s rigs, will have been a source of concern. Continue reading… More

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    Moldova Needs Security Guarantees as Part of Any Ukraine–Russia Peace Deal

    Moldova is relevant to any Ukraine–Russia peace deal, which can only be achieved through enforceable security guarantees for both countries. A small but strategically important country, Moldova is decisively pro-Europe, with its voters defeating pro-Russian parties in the most recent election.  Moldova does not border Russia. Nonetheless, Moldovans feel threatened by Russia. In February 2022,… Continue reading Moldova Needs Security Guarantees as Part of Any Ukraine–Russia Peace Deal
    The post Moldova Needs Security Guarantees as Part of Any Ukraine–Russia Peace Deal appeared first on Fair Observer. More

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    If Donald Trump thinks Greenland should be his, how long before he sets his sights on Scotland? | Zoe Williams

    By the expansionist logic of the president and his advisers, the US is entitled to annex just about anywhere‘We do need Greenland, absolutely,” Donald Trump told the Atlantic on 5 January, with the hand-wavy follow-up, “We need it for defence.” His adviser Stephen Miller was more aggressive still in an interview with CNN, saying: “The real question is, by what right does Denmark assert control over Greenland? What is the basis of their territorial claim? … The US is the power of Nato … obviously Greenland should be part of the United States.” His wife, Katie Miller, posted an image on X of a map of the country papered over with the US flag, with the caption “soon”. It’s hard to orientate sensibly towards things that happen on X these days: if she had posted a Grok-generated image of Greenland in a bikini, would that be more or less concerning?Still, we’re right to be concerned. There is no comfort to be had from old-era ideas such as: “Maybe they’re just sabre-rattling about Greenland to distract from the matter of Venezuela”, or “surely the foundational principles of Nato, a defensive alliance, will prevent the US from any act of aggression towards its own allies?”Zoe Williams is a Guardian columnist Continue reading… More

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    The Trump doctrine exposes the US as a mafia state | Jan-Werner Müller

    The Venezuela incursion is in line with this logic, made even plainer as the US eyes GreenlandWhen a bleary-eyed Trump explained the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro this past Saturday, he invoked the Monroe doctrine: while the US president sounded as if he were reading about it for the first time, historians of course recognized the idea of Washington as a kind of guardian of the western hemisphere. Together with the national security strategy published in December, the move on Venezuela can be understood as advancing a vision for carving up the world into what the Nazi jurist Carl Schmitt called “great spaces”, with each in effect supervised by a great power (meaning, in today’s world, Washington, Moscow and Beijing). But more is happening than a return to such de facto imperialism: Trump’s promise to “run the country” for the sake of US oil companies signals the internationalization of one aspect of his regime – what has rightly been called the logic of the mafia state. That logic is even more obvious in his stated desire to grab Greenland.The theory of the mafia state was first elaborated by the Hungarian sociologist Bálint Magyar in 2016. Such a state is less about corruption where envelopes change hands under the table. Instead, public procurement is rigged; large companies are brought under the control of regime-friendly oligarchs, who in turn acquire media to provide favorable coverage to the ruler. The beneficiaries are what Magyar calls the “extended political family” (which can include the ruler’s natural family). As with the mafia, unconditional loyalty is the price for being part of the system.Jan-Werner Müller is a Guardian US columnist and a professor of politics at Princeton University Continue reading… More