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      US adds 263,000 jobs in November as unemployment rate stays at 3.7%

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      US adds 263,000 jobs in November as unemployment rate stays at 3.7%Jobs market remains strong even as Fed imposes biggest series of rate rises in decades in effort to tame inflation The US added 263,000 jobs in November, the labor department announced on Friday, another strong month of jobs growth. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, close to a 50-year low.Employers hired 284,000 new positions in October and 269,000 in September and the latest figures show hiring has remained resilient despite rising interest rates and the announcement of a series of layoffs at technology and real estate companies.The jobs market has remained strong even as the Federal Reserve has imposed the biggest series of rate rises in decades in its fight to tame inflation. This week, the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, indicated that the continuing strength of the jobs market – and rising wages – were likely to trigger more rate rises in the coming months.The US had been expected to add 200,000 jobs in November. The latest jobs numbers – the last before the Fed meets to decide its next move later this month – will strengthen the central bank’s resolve to keep raising rates.“This phenomenal labor market is showing little sign of slowdown,” said Becky Frankiewicz, president and chief commercial officer of ManpowerGroup. “Despite recurring headlines of deep cutbacks – primarily in tech – other sectors have scaled up; and while we’ve been bracing for a downturn, the broader labor market has barely flinched.”Economists expect rate hikes will eventually dampen hiring, potentially leading to a recession and job losses next year. But so far, the jobs market has shaken off the Fed’s interventions.The government figures follow a downbeat report from ADP, the US’s largest payroll supplier. On Wednesday, ADP said the private sector had added just 127,000 positions for the month, well below the 190,000 forecast by economists and a steep reduction from the 239,000 jobs ADP recorded in October.ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson, said it was still too early to say but it seemed the rate rises were filtering through to hiring decisions.“Turning points can be hard to capture in the labor market, but our data suggest that Federal Reserve tightening is having an impact on job creation and pay gains,” said Richardson. “In addition, companies are no longer in hyper-replacement mode. Fewer people are quitting and the post-pandemic recovery is stabilizing.”TopicsUS unemployment and employment dataUS economyFederal ReserveUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      We need serious public policy, not more printed money – the US economy is in tatters

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      AnalysisWe need serious public policy, not more printed money – the US economy is in tattersDoug HenwoodDecades of bailouts have convinced some that the Fed will always come to the rescue – but this only papers over the fundamental flaws of the US economy With the Federal Reserve leading the world’s central banks in a tightening cycle of interest rate rises, the likes of which we haven’t seen since 2006, commentators across the political spectrum are noting the fondness of the Fed chair, Jerome “Jay” Powell, for his legendary predecessor, Paul Volcker. On the left, the comparison is fearful; on the center and on the right, it’s one of admiration. But circumstances don’t really support the comparison.Fed announces sixth consecutive hike in US interest rates to fight inflationRead moreOn taking office in October 1979, Volcker declared “the standard of living of the average American has to decline” as a consequence of the war against the chronic inflation of the 1970s. He quickly set to work making that happen by driving interest rates up towards 20% and creating the deepest US recession since the 1930s.That squeeze did put an end to high inflation but at a tremendous social cost. Six million people lost their jobs over the next three years, taking the unemployment rate from 6% to almost 11% in late 1982. The cost wasn’t merely short-term. About half of those job losses were categorized as permanent, as opposed to being temporary layoffs, many of them in the manufacturing heartland. The term “rust belt” entered common usage.Volcker was appointed by Jimmy Carter, who seemed to have no idea of what he was getting himself into. His friend and adviser, the Georgia banker Bert Lance, prophetically warned him that he was dooming his prospects in the 1980s election. But Carter listened to the consensus of Wall Street and the political class – Volcker was the man to tame inflation, which was running around 13% at the end of 1979. The US had seen inflation rates that high before, but never outside of major wars or their immediate aftermath. Inflation, which was under 2% in 1965, had been rising relentlessly for 15 years, barely pausing even in the nasty recession of the mid-1970s. Contrary to a belief popular on the left, that inflation was not kind to workers. Wages badly lagged prices, and real average hourly earnings fell 14% between 1973 and 1980.There are some similarities between the present and 40 years ago. Then, as now, food and energy prices were important factors in sparking inflation, but in both cases, even if you strip out those two volatile components, a severe inflation remains. And in both cases, polls have shown inflation to be deeply unpopular.But there are also major differences, notably in the strength of labor. At the end of the 1970s, almost a quarter of all workers were unionized; now only about a tenth are. Then, an average of 22,000 workdays were lost to strikes every year; last year it was just 1,500 – a decline of 93%. The early 1980s recession hammered the bargaining power of the working class. Unions were busted, and we went from a time when Take This Job and Shove It could be a hit song (as it was in 1977) to one where workers were grateful to have any job at all, no matter how tenuous and low-paying. As the recession ended in late 1982, the stock market took off and the employer class began a 40-year celebration of its triumph.That’s not the world Powell finds himself in. Inflation has been a problem for close to 15 months rather than 15 years, and although there are some tentative signs of life in the labor movement – notably at one Amazon site and a few hundred Starbucks outlets (out of 9,000) – the share of the labor force represented by unions fell last year, and strike activity so far in 2022 is about a third lower than in 2021. Unlike the inflation of the 1970s, this is not the wage-push kind (to use the jargon). It’s been driven first by supply chain blockages, thanks to Covid, and extended by embargoes against Russian energy exports, and most workers are just looking on helplessly as their paychecks fail to keep up with price increases.There’s another difference as well: we’re coming off a decade of extremely indulgent monetary policy. Coming out of the Great Recession, the Fed kept short-term interest rates near zero between 2011 and 2021, with the brief exception when they pushed them up to just over 2% in 2017 and 2018 (still quite low by historical standards). On top of that, the central bank pumped over $3tn (£2.7tn) into the financial markets between 2008 and 2015, and almost $5tn between early 2020 and early 2022. The earlier pumping was meant to prevent a financial implosion after the sub-prime crisis, and the latter to counter the threats of the early pandemic months. But the result of both has been to stimulate crazy inflation in asset prices – stocks, crypto, unicorns, housing – a remarkable waste of capital and one that can be very risky to deflate. Decades of bailouts have convinced financial market players that the Fed will always come in to rescue them and reversing that mentality could require a Volckerish austerity for Wall Street – one that’s politically hard to imagine.The Fed’s interest rate hikes are going to hit the most vulnerable | Dean BakerRead moreWhat Powell is up to now bears almost no resemblance to Volcker’s clampdown. The federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend each other money overnight – that is the Fed’s most direct policy target – changed from just above 0% to just under 4% after raising the target rate another 0.75 points this week. That’s almost 15 points below the Volcker peak. In real terms – deducting the rate of inflation – Volcker’s peak was almost 10%, a lot higher. Right now, the real fed funds rate is around -4% (yes, that’s a negative sign). Powell may admire Volcker, but next to him, he’s a piker.The debate over monetary policy overlooks a more important issue. That decade of cheap money papered over a lot of fundamental problems with the US economy: low levels of public and private investment, massive polarization between rich and poor and unstable employment for much of the labor force. These should be addressed with serious public policy, not by printing money. It would be nice if we talked about that, but given the degraded state of American political discourse, I’m not hopeful.
      Doug Henwood is an economic journalist based in Brooklyn. His radio show, Behind the News, airs on KPFA radio in Berkeley, and is available on all the standard podcast outlets
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      Don’t be fooled: policymakers are quietly invoking austerity by other names | Clara Mattei

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      Don’t be fooled: policymakers are quietly invoking austerity by other namesClara MatteiFraming monetary policy as a war effort has been part of the playbook for instituting austerity policies for over a century Austerity, like trickle-down economics, has been relegated to the list of things economists don’t talk about anymore. Austerity’s core policies – hikes in interest rates, downward pressure of fiscal spending and wages – had their last stand with the European sovereign-debt crisis a decade ago, and the resulting public outcry made the “a-word” unmentionable, even in times of economic crisis. So, on 21 September, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced his fifth interest-rate hike of the last nine months, this dirtiest word in economic policy was conspicuously absent from his remarks. Instead, Powell described the process of resetting the economy – through the introduction of increased unemployment and possible recession –as a necessary form of “economic pain.” Powell’s comments echoed those of his British counterpart, former chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, in a letter to Boris Johnson: “[the public] need to know that whilst there is a path to a better future, it is not an easy one.” This framing of monetary policy as some sort of war effort – hard work and individual sacrifice for the greater good –has been part of the playbook for instituting austerity policies for more than a century. In 1920, at the first international financial conference in Brussels, British civil servant Robert H Brand evangelized economic narratives focused on this “hard truth”: in order for the economy to get back on its feet after World War I, “the answer is a very painful one and yet a very simple one. We must all work hard, live hard, and save hard.” As Powell, Sunak and Brand demonstrate, the road to austerity is paved with vague euphemisms.For a policy so reviled that officials can’t even speak its name, austerity continues to enjoy a remarkable century-long run as the go-to policy prescription for national economies in strife. This is even more remarkable when one considers that, as the work of political economist Mark Blyth and others have shown, austerity policies don’t actually work – at least not in their stated ends of boosting economic growth and reducing debt. If we know that austerity doesn’t fix what needs fixed, then why is it suddenly making a comeback? Keynesian critics dismiss this paradox as a simple matter of bad policy informed by bad economic theory. But how does this response square with a world that is increasingly stewarded by Keynesian economists – a world in which the Keynesians are the ones courting austerity?A more satisfying explanation emerges when we recognize that austerity is more than just a tool for managing an economy. Rather, austerity is a political project that is crucial to upholding the smooth functioning of our economic system.In order for a capitalist system to work in delivering economic growth, the social relation of capital – people selling their labor power for a wage – must be stable across a society. Where prices or wages go up or go haywire, the system fails, and economic disaster quickly follows.‘Starve and shiver with Sunak’ is the reality for millions. The chancellor can – and must – stop it | Gordon BrownRead moreIn this way, a country’s commitment to economic growth presupposes a certain sociopolitical order, or capital order. Every capitalist society needs accumulation at the top and laboring at the bottom in order to keep expanding its pie. This organization is neither fixed nor a given; it has to be constantly protected through economic policies. That’s exactly the function austerity serves: it preserves the basic class relations at the core of our economy, especially in times of social changes. In the US, that social changeis the rapid reconfiguring of the labor market since the onset of the pandemic. It is no longer the case that the lowest-paying jobs are eagerly taken up by a labor class; instead, many people have seemingly reexamined the merits of participating in a labor market rife with unappealing conditions. And as inflation makes wage work even less sustainable than it was before the pandemic, the problem is compounded. The fiscal, monetary, and industrial measures that make up austerity are not, as they’re typically described, an economic war effort for the greater good. They are simply the crude tools for reestablishing the quiet disciplinary mechanisms that organize modern societies. For some, the short-term cost of a temporary economic recession is worth its structural gain; austerity restabilizes class relations and thus refurbishes the conditions for profits. As we enter a period of “economic pain,” it is worth considering whether this endgame justifies it.
      Clara E Mattei is assistant professor of economics at the New School for Social Research in New York City. She is author of The Capital Order: How Economists Invented Austerity and Paved the Way to Fascism, which will publish in November from the University of Chicago Press
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      Fed raises interest rate by 0.75 percentage points as US seeks to rein in inflation

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      Fed raises interest rate by 0.75 percentage points as US seeks to rein in inflationThird outsized rate increase in a row as central bank struggles to fight runaway inflation, increasing the cost of everything The Federal Reserve announced another sharp hike in interest rates on Wednesday as the central bank struggles to rein in runaway inflation.The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage points, the third such outsized rate increase in a row, bringing the Fed rate to 3%-3.25% and increasing the cost of everything from credit card debt and mortgages to company financing.The central bank signaled more raises to come, predicting rates would reach 4.4% by the end of the year and not start coming down until 2024. The Fed expects the rate rises to hit the job market – raising unemployment from 3.7% to 4.4% next year – housing prices and to lower economic growth.“We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t,” the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, said. “We have always understood that restoring price stability while achieving a relatively modest increase in unemployment and a soft landing would be very challenging. And we don’t know. No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or if so, how significant that recession would be.”Central bankers around the world are raising rates sharply as they too attempt to tackle the cost of living crisis. This week the Bank of England is expected to announce its largest rate rise in 25 years. The European Central Bank raised interest rates across the eurozone by a record margin earlier this month.The Fed initially dismissed rising inflation, arguing it was a “transitory” phase triggered by the pandemic and supply chain issues. But as prices escalated the Fed announced a series of aggressive moves in the hopes of bringing prices back under control.Until recently Powell had said he hoped that the economy could achieve what he called a “soft landing” – a slowdown that would bring costs down but not lead to a spike in unemployment and a recession.Speaking at a congressional hearing on Wednesday, some of the US’s top bankers said it was too early to tell how rate rises would impact the economy. “I think there’s a chance, not a big change, a small chance, of a soft landing,” said Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase.“There’s a chance of a mild recession, a chance of a hard recession. And because of the war in Ukraine and the uncertainty in global energy and food supply, there’s a chance that it could be worse. I think policymakers should be prepared for the worst, so we take the right actions if and when that happens,” he said.Raising rates makes borrowing more expensive which should reduce spending and lower prices. But the policy is a blunt instrument and rate rises take time to filter through to the wider economy. So far the Fed’s rate rises have not had a significant impact.The US jobs market remains robust, with unemployment still close to a 50-year low, consumer spending rose last month and inflation remained stubbornly high in August, 8.3% higher than a year ago.There are, however, some signs of a slowdown. Existing home sales fell in August for the seventh consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 19.9% lower than in August 2021 and are now at their lowest level since they briefly stalled during the height of the pandemic in 2020. And large employers including BestBuy, Ford and Walmart have announced layoffs or hiring freezes.TopicsFederal ReserveUS economyBank of EnglandInflationEconomicsEuropean Central BankUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      Trump search affidavit reveals potential for ‘evidence of obstruction’ at Mar-a-Lago – as it happened

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      The affidavit as released is of course full of redactions, across its 38 pages. But it reveals some interesting nuggets about the search, including that the Department of Justice and FBI had “probable cause to believe that evidence of obstruction” would be found at Mar-a-Lago.In another interesting section … the affidavit says that on 9 February 2022, the DoJ leaned that a preliminary review of 15 boxes taken to Mar-a-Lago “indicated that they contained ‘newspapers, magazines, printed news articles, photos, miscellaneous print-outs, notes, presidential correspondence, personal and post-presidential records, and ‘a lot of classified records’.“Of most significant concern was that highly classified records were unfoldered, intermixed with other records, and otherwise unproperly [sic] identified.”The affidavit reproduces a Trump statement after the issue became public, and then … is extensively redacted. The redacted passage is a chronological retelling of how the issue developed. The next significant un-redacted passage contains the news that Trump’s own notes were included in the materials in question. It reads as follows:“From May 16-18, 2022, FBI agents conducted a preliminary review of the FIFTEEN BOXES provided to NARA and identified documents with classification markings in fourteen of the FIFTEEN BOXES. A preliminary triage of the documents with classification markings revealed the following approximate numbers: 184 unique documents bearing classification markings, including 67 documents marked as CONFIDENTIAL, 92 documents marked as SECRET, and 25 documents marked as TOP SECRET. Further, the FBI agents observed markings reflecting the following compartments/dissemination controls: HCS, FISA, ORCON, NOFORN, and SI.“Based on my training and experience, I know that documents classified at these levels typically contain NDI. Several of the documents also contained what appears to be FPOTUS’s [Trump’s] handwritten notes.Closing summaryIt has been a day of drama as the redacted affidavit explaining why the FBI chose to raid Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence was finally published to an eagerly awaiting world. It wasn’t exactly a damp squib. The document – much of which was blanked out – detailed the huge numbers of secret documents squirreled away and security risks they posed.But due to the large numbers of redactions there was no explosive new line, though one thing does seem certain: this FBI investigation is just getting started and has a long long way to go.Here’s what else happened today:
      Amy Coney Barrett was in the news via a Guardian US scoop showing that a faith group she has been closely associated with places huge emphasis on female obedience.
      Joe Biden and his administration stood by his calling out of the Republican politicians as behaving like semi-fascists. The move drew ire from the rightwing party.
      Washington is to follow the path of its fellow west coast state California and pursue the eventual ban of sales of new gasoline-powered cars.
      A Jim Crow-era provision of the Mississippi constitution designed to disfranchise Black voters is constitutional, a federal appellate court ruled.
      Dow drops 1,000 pointsThe Guardian’s Dominic Rushe writes here that there has been a steep drop on Wall Street in response to the latest forecasts on the economy from Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell.A 1,000 plus point drop is hardly a catastrophe but it is definitely a nasty fall.Dominic writes: US stock markets nosedived on Friday after Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, warned of “pain” ahead as the central bank struggles to bring down inflation from a 40-year high.Powell’s highly anticipated speech was more hawkish than had been expected, with the Fed chair pledging to do all he could to end rising prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost just over 1,000 points, 3%, the S&P fell 3.3% and the Nasdaq dropped almost 4%.Speaking at the Kansas City Fed’s annual meeting of the world’s central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell said the Fed’s “overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down”.Read more:Dow plunges 1,000 points after Fed chief Powell warns of inflation ‘pain’Read moreNikki Haley for 2024?The former UN ambassador under Donald Trump is often mentioned as a potential 2024 candidate and someone who could – potentially – straddle the two disparate and often bitterly feuding worlds of Trump and non-Trump Republicans.That sees Haley frequently seek to a perform a difficult dance between courting her old bosses’ favor, but also trying not to seem too close to him.Politico has the details of some of the people donating to her political future and it makes interesting reading of a long list of Republican stalwarts.The report says: “Many of the GOP’s biggest donors are among those who funneled anonymous contributions to former U.N ambassador Nikki Haley’s nonprofit as she lays the groundwork for a prospective 2024 presidential bid, according to previously unreported tax documents obtained by Politico.Haley’s nonprofit policy advocacy group, Stand For America, Inc, has received major donations from people including New York hedge fund manager Paul Singer, investor Stanley Druckenmiller, and Miriam Adelson and her late husband, casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, the Internal Revenue Service filings reveal.The roster of supporters who gave undisclosed donations in 2019 also includes Suzanne Youngkin, the wife of Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, himself a possible presidential contender; former Pennsylvania Senate candidate and hedge fund executive David McCormick; and Vivek and Lakshmi Garipalli, members of a New Jersey family that has donated large sums to Democrats – but which gave Haley’s organization $1 million.”Fascist or not?It might have seemed an odd question even just a few years ago, but Joe Biden’s speech on Thursday night has put the word “fascism” squarely into mainstream American political discourse.His accusations that modern Republicans were behaving like semi-fascists certainty triggered questions to his top press spokesperson. The Biden administration – understandably – is standing behind the phrase.Reuters captures the scene:The actions of some Republicans allied to former President Donald Trump fit the definition of fascism, White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Friday, a day after President Joe Biden said they edged toward “semi-fascism.”“I was very clear when laying out and defining what MAGA Republicans have done and you look at the definition of fascism and you think about what they’re doing in attacking our democracy. … That is what that is. It is very clear,” Jean-Pierre told a press briefing.MAGA refers to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan. Fascism is a political philosophy that exalts nation and often race above the individual and supports an autocratic government led by a dictatorial leader involving the forced suppression of opposition, U.S. dictionary Merriam-Webster says.In response to Biden’s Thursday evening comments that Trump-allied Republicans embraced violence and hatred, and edged toward “semi-fascism,” the Republican National Committee called the remarks “despicable.”A key questionWashington Post columnist Helaine Olen seems to have hit the nail on the head with a very simple tweet. Answers on a postcard please… no redactions.What’s the innocent explanation for Trump keeping all these classified documents?— Helaine Olen (@helaineolen) August 26, 2022
      Arizona judge strikes blow against election fairness skepticsIn just one of many such scenes playing out in courts across the US, Republicans who believe Donald Trump’s unfounded claims of a stolen election and a fraudulent US voting process have suffered a set back.An Arizona judge has refused to require that Arizona officials count ballots by hand in November, dismissing a lawsuit filed by Republican nominees for governor and secretary of state based on false claims of problems with vote-counting machines.AP has more: Kari Lake, who is running for governor, and Mark Finchem, a secretary of state candidate, won their GOP primaries after aggressively promoting the narrative that the 2020 election was marred by fraud or widespread irregularities.Their lawsuit repeated unfounded allegations about the security of machines that count votes. They relied in part on testimony from Donald Trump supporters who led a discredited review of the election in Maricopa County, including Doug Logan, the CEO of Cyber Ninjas, who oversaw the effort described by supporters as a “forensic audit.”U.S. District Judge John Tuchi ruled that Lake and Finchem failed to show any realistic likelihood of harm and that their lawsuit must be brought in state, not federal, court. He also ruled that it is too close to the election to upend the process.“The 2022 Midterm Elections are set to take place on November 8,” Tuchi wrote. “In the meantime, Plaintiffs request a complete overhaul of Arizona’s election procedures.”Various reactions have been pouring out online over the affidavit. Virginia Democratic senator Mark Warner, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee said:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}“It appears, based on the affidavit unsealed this morning, that among the improperly handled documents at Mar-a-Lago were some of our most sensitive intelligence * which is one reason the Senate Intelligence Committee has requested, on a bipartisan basis, a damage assessment of any national security threat posed by the mishandling of this information. The Department of Justice investigation must be allowed to proceed without interference.” Meanwhile, North Carolina Republican Representative Dan Bishop said: “So much for transparency,” tweeting alongside a photo of redacted sections of the affidavit. Bishop is a member of the House of Representatives Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee.Donald Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. echoed similar sentiments online, tweeting a photo of the redacted affidavit with the caption, “Well this really clears things up.” Well this really clears things up. pic.twitter.com/6S2FxIQtSi— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) August 26, 2022
      Nina Lakhani and Oliver Milman report…Taking on the fossil fuel industry in West Virginia was always going to be a David v Goliath type battle, but after years of protests, lobbying and lawsuits, 68-year-old Becky Crabtree thought the community-led resistance had beaten the Mountain Valley pipeline (MVP) in a fair fight.So when news broke earlier in August that the state’s fossil-fuel friendly senator Joe Manchin had resurrected the pipeline, Crabtree, a high school science teacher who teaches students about the climate crisis, felt “numb”.Manchin, a conservative Democrat who receives more campaign financing from the fossil fuel industry – including pipeline companies – than any other lawmaker in Congress, had agreed to back his party’s historic climate legislation before the crucial midterm elections. But only after he negotiated a side-deal to fast-track the MVP.“It’s the unfairness that makes me so angry. It’s a deal with the devil,” said Crabtree, 68, who owns a 30-acre sheep farm in Lindside, Monroe county.Full story:‘It’s a deal with the devil’: outrage in Appalachia over Manchin’s ‘vile’ pipeline plan Read moreWhite House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has just finished briefing the media and taking questions and she was asked about Joe Biden’s remarks at a fundraiser last night where he referred to the “MAGA Republican philosophy” as akin to “semi-fascism”.Asked to explain what the US president meant by that remark, Jean-Pierre said of right-wing Republicans: “He was very powerful last night. When it comes to ‘MAGA Republicans’, when it comes to the extreme, ultra wing of the Republicans, they are attacking democracy, they are taking away rights and freedoms, they are using threats of violence, taking away voting rights, and he [Biden] called it what it is … and what many would argue, historians would agree with us on.”“He believes that presidents should be the strongest voice for democracy,” she added.Jean-Pierre also strove to differentiate between what she referred to as “traditional, conservative” Republicans and the [Trumpist] “Make America Great Again” rightwing loyalists to the former president.A quick recap, blog readers, it’s been a dramatic morning and there will be plenty more news over the coming few hours. But for now, here’s where things stand:
      Donald Trump has released a statement about the release of the government affidavit that underpinned the search of his Mar-a-Lago club and residence in Florida earlier this month. He posted it on Truth Social, his struggling social media platform that he created after being banned by Twitter.
      The US Department of Justice and the FBI had “probable cause to believe that evidence of obstruction” would be found at Mar-a-Lago when it sought a warrant to search the property, the affidavit notes.
      The affidavit is replete with details that would provide “a roadmap” for anyone intent on obstructing the investigation.
      The affidavit reminds us of the context of the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago, thus: “The government is conducting a criminal investigation concerning the improper removal and storage of classified information in unauthorized spaces, as well as the unlawful concealment or removal of government records.”
      While the public waited for the affidavit to be released, we also noted that Joe Biden called the “MAGA Republican” philosophy “semi-fascism” last night, based on the anti-democratic efforts of the more extreme wing of the GOP that hews unfailingly to Trump.
      We have Donald Trump’s reaction, on Truth Social, the social media platform he set up after being kicked off Twitter over the Capitol attack….css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Affidavit heavily redacted!!! Nothing mentioned on “Nuclear,” a total public relations subterfuge by the FBI & DOJ, or our close working relationship regarding document turnover – WE GAVE THEM MUCH. Judge Bruce Reinhart should NEVER have allowed the Break-In of my home. He recused himself two months ago from one of my cases based on his animosity and hatred of your favorite President, me. What changed? Why hasn’t he recused himself on this case? Obama must be very proud of him right now!To unpick:
      “Nuclear” – it has been reported that some of the materials kept at Mar-a-Lago concerned nuclear weapons. And some concerned Emmanuel Macron, which, by the by, might interest Liz Truss. But anyway…
      “Break-in” – nope. Warrant duly served, etc, which is why we’re here.
      “Obama must be very proud” of the judge … we may all remember John Roberts, the chief justice of the supreme court, rebuking Trump for referring to “Obama judges”, etc. We may also all remember Trump’s pride at having installed a huge number of judges himself, including three on Roberts’ court. In short – judges are not meant to act politically but they are politically appointed. And so on.
      Of Judge Reinhart: he made a donation to Barack Obama in 2008. He also donated to Republicans, if not Donald J Trump.
      Attached to the affidavit is a letter from lawyers for Donald Trump, complaining of unfair treatment and asserting a president’s “absolute authority to declassify documents” – both features of his response to the search and the claims of his supporters in Republican ranks and on the right of the US media.The letter, signed by M Evan Corcoran of Silverman Thompson Slutkin White, begins:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Public trust in the government is low. At such times, adherence to the rules and long-standing policies is essential. President Donald J Trump is a leader of the Republican Party. The Department of Justice (DOJ), as part of the Executive Branch, is under the control of a President from the opposite party. It is critical, given that dynamic, that every effort is made to ensure that actions by DOJ that may touch upon the former President, or his close associates, do not involve politics.”I refer you back to President Joe Biden’s comment to reporters before the affidavit was filed today, when asked if he thought national security might have been compromised at Mar-a-Lago while Trump was storing classified documents there:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}We’ll let the justice department determine that.”The lawyers’ letter conforms to Trump’s worldview, that attorneys general and the Department of Justice exist to serve presidents politically. Biden’s answer speaks for generally accepted wisdom, which is that the DoJ does not exist for that purpose and is in fact independent of any White House or administration. More

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      Workers are being punished for inflation. The real culprit is corporate greed | Robert Reich

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      Workers are being punished for inflation. The real culprit is corporate greedRobert ReichBig corporations are using inflation as cover to raise prices. Yet the US Federal Reserve is raising interest rates – further hurting Americans The US Federal Reserve is aiming its powerful firehose at the living room but it’s the forest that’s ablaze. As a result, people may drown even as their house catches fire.This about sums up the sorry state of inflation-fighting in America.On Wednesday, the Fed – America’s central bank – raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, and signaled more rate increases to come, perhaps as soon as September.This followed a quarter-point increase in March, another half a point in May, and three-quarters of a point in June.On Thursday, the commerce department announced that the US economy had shrunk for the second quarter in a row.While not technically a recession (economists in and out of the White House have spent much of the last several days deconstructing the word “recession”), there’s no question but that the US economy is slowing.This, to put it mildly, makes no sense.Inflation has broken out all over the world – the consequence of pent-up demand from more than two years of pandemic and of limited supplies of everything from computer chips to wheat, due to difficulties getting the world economy up and running.Add in Putin’s war in Ukraine driving up world energy and food prices, and China’s lockdowns against Covid, and you get a perfect conflagration.That’s not all. Big corporations are busily raising their prices because consumers have so little choice. Corporations are using inflation as cover.Prices at the gas pump have drifted down a bit in the last month but are still eye-popping. (Here in California, I’m paying over $6 a gallon.)At the same time, big oil has hit a gusher. Exxon just reported second-quarter profits of $17.9bn, more than three times what it earned a year ago. Chevron’s profit more than tripled to $11.6bn.The two giant American oil companies aren’t pouring their profits back into energy, green or otherwise. They’re buying back their shares of stock to reward investors and executives.Or consider giant corporations selling consumer staples, such as Proctor & Gamble (maker of everything from Gillette razors to Tide detergent).On Friday, P&G reported another quarter of rising profits despite the increasing costs of raw materials and transportation. How did it manage this feat? By raising its prices even more.Meanwhile, half of the recent rise in grocery prices is from beef, pork and poultry. Just four large conglomerates control these markets, and they’ve been coordinating their price increases to score large profits – here again, using “inflation” as an excuse.If markets were competitive, companies would keep their prices down to prevent competitors from grabbing away customers. But they’re raising prices even as they rake in record profits.The Fed’s firehose is hitting none of this.Meanwhile, we’re told not to worry because the labor market is doing just fine.Rubbish.There are two aspects to the labor market – jobs and wages. The number of jobs has been increasing nicely. Let’s hope this continues. But hourly wages have plummeted, when adjusted for inflation.If the Fed keeps raising interest rates – even if the national economy avoids an official “recession” – most workers will fall even further behind.The living standards of nearly everyone who borrows money are already dropping. Because of the Fed’s rate hikes, the average rate on credit card debt has reached 17.25% (up from 16.34% in March, before the Fed began raising interest rates). Rates on student loans, car loans and mortgages are also rising.The government should use a firehose better aimed at the conflagration, which won’t so badly burden the bottom 80%.For starters, impose a temporary windfall profits tax on big oil, on giant sellers of consumer staples and on big ag. This would reduce their incentive to engage in price gouging.Bolder antitrust enforcement – even the threat to block mergers and break up giant companies – could also reduce their ardor to raise prices.If Congress refuses to allow the government to use its bargaining power to reduce the prices of pharmaceuticals, big pharma is a good candidate for temporary price controls. (FDR controlled prices via executive order.)Finally, higher taxes on the wealthy – such as Democrats seem finally ready to enact – will help dampen total demand, thereby dousing some of the inflation fire.The Fed’s single tool for fire-fighting – interest-rate increases – is aimed in the wrong direction. It’s hitting working people rather than corporations responsible for most price increases (over and above the rising costs of global supplies).We need to fight rising prices, not working people.
      Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His new book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com
      TopicsUS economyOpinionInflationFederal ReserveUS politicsOil and gas companiesEnergy industrycommentReuse this content More

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      US Federal Reserve announces three-quarter-point interest rate increase to cool inflation – as it happened

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      Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, has spoken about the 0.75% rise in interest rates announced this afternoon. He said the move was essential because “inflation is much too high.”Powell said: .css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}My colleagues and I are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down. And we’re moving expeditiously to do so.
      We have both the tools we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses.As my colleague Dominic Rushe explains here, the US central bank is aggressively raising rates at levels unseen since the mid-1990s as it struggles to tamp down soaring prices, which rose by an annual rate of 9.1% in June, the fastest inflation rate since 1981.When mortgage rates, car loans and credit cards are more expensive, the theory goes, people are less inclined to spend, and inflation comes down.Powell added:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}The economy and the country have been through a lot over the past two and a half years and have proved resilient.
      It is essential that we bring inflation down to our 2% goal, if we are to have a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.That’s a wrap on the US politics blog for today, thanks for your company. Please join us again tomorrow.Here’s what we followed:
      The Federal Reserve announced a 0.75% rise in interest rates, the fourth this year, pushing up the cost of mortgages, credit cards and car loans. Fed chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference the rise was “essential” to curb runaway inflation.
      The US has offered Russia a deal aimed at bringing home jailed Americans Brittney Griner, a professional basketball player, and security expert Paul Whelan. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he expected to speak with his counterpart in Moscow shortly, for the first time since before Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February.
      A bill pledging support for human trafficking victims passed the House, with 20 Republicans voting against. They included Florida congressman Matt Gaetz, who is the subject of a justice department investigation involving sex with a 17-year-old girl.
      Gun manufacturers pocketed more than $1bn over a decade from the sales of AR-15 military-style weapons, as hundreds of Americans died in mass shootings. Carolyn Maloney, Democratic chair of the House oversight committee, told a hearing the gun industry was “profiting off the blood of innocent Americans.”
      Joe Biden tested negative for Covid-19 and returned to work in-person after a five-isolation to give an address in the White House Rose Garden. The president warned that the pandemic was resurgent and urged Americans to get vaccinated and boosted.
      House Democrats introduced a bill to establish term limits for supreme court justices, after an unprecedented term in which federal abortion rights were overturned and threats emerged from the right-wing panel to same-sex marriages and contraception.
      The justice department has centered its criminal inquiry over the January 6 insurrection to Donald Trump’s personal conduct as he fought to stay in office after his 2020 defeat by Joe Biden, per the Washington Post.
      A press conference explaining this afternoon’s 0.75% rise in interest rates has just wrapped up, after an hour, with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s final words attempting to offer comfort to Americans paying the price of soaring inflation:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}We know that inflation is too high. We understand how painful it is, particularly for people who are living paycheck to paycheck, and spend most of that paycheck on necessities such as food and gas, and heating their homes and clothing and things like that.
      We do understand that that those people suffer the most. The middle class and better off people have some resources where they can absorb these things, but many people don’t have those resources.
      So you know, it is our job, it is our institutional role. We are assigned uniquely and unconditionally the obligation of providing price stability to the American people. And we’re going to use our tools to do that.The US has offered Russia a deal aimed at bringing home jailed Americans Brittney Griner, a professional basketball player, and security expert Paul Whelan, the Associated Press reports.Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday he expected to speak with his counterpart in Moscow shortly, for the first time since before Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February.The Biden administration has offered a deal to Russia aimed at bringing home WNBA star Brittney Griner and another jailed American Paul Whelan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday. https://t.co/BgwOCabNxs— The Associated Press (@AP) July 27, 2022
      His statement marked the first time the US government has publicly revealed any concrete action to secure the release of Griner, who was arrested on drug-related charges at a Moscow airport in February and testified Wednesday at her trial.Blinken did not offer details on the proposed deal, which the AP says was offered weeks ago.The elephant in the room, until a reporter asked about it during the question and answer session following Jerome Powell’s statement, was whether there was going to be a recession in the US, as some analysts have predicted but others, including Joe Biden, have attempted to discount.The Federal Reserve chair said he did not think a recession was inevitable:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Price stability is really the bedrock of the economy and nothing works in the economy without price stability. We can’t have a strong labor market without price stability for an extended period of time.
      We need a period of growth below potential in order to create some slack so that supply can catch up. We also think that there will be, in all likelihood, some softening in labor market conditions. Those are things we expect and are probably necessary if we are able to get inflation back down to 2%.
      We’re trying to do just the right amount. We’re not trying to have a recession, and we don’t think we have to.
      I do not think the US is currently in a recession. The reason is there are too many areas in the economy that are performing too well, the labor market in particular.Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell says he’s sympathetic to American families struggling with soaring prices at supermarket checkouts, gas stations and elsewhere:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Although prices for some commodities have turned down recently, the earlier surge in prices of crude oil and other commodities that resulted from Russia’s war on Ukraine has boosted prices for gasoline and food creating additional upward pressure on inflation.
      My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing and transportation.Powell pointed to a “robust” jobs market, with unemployment near a 50-year low, strong consumer demand and recent reductions in gas prices.But he said the Fed needed to maintain a tight rein on the economy in order to reduce inflation, and hinted that more rate rises – beyond the four already announced this year – will be likely in the coming months and into next year. He did, however, suggest the aggressive pace of the interest rate rises will decrease:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}It likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increase. While we assess how our cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation.Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, has spoken about the 0.75% rise in interest rates announced this afternoon. He said the move was essential because “inflation is much too high.”Powell said: .css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}My colleagues and I are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down. And we’re moving expeditiously to do so.
      We have both the tools we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses.As my colleague Dominic Rushe explains here, the US central bank is aggressively raising rates at levels unseen since the mid-1990s as it struggles to tamp down soaring prices, which rose by an annual rate of 9.1% in June, the fastest inflation rate since 1981.When mortgage rates, car loans and credit cards are more expensive, the theory goes, people are less inclined to spend, and inflation comes down.Powell added:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}The economy and the country have been through a lot over the past two and a half years and have proved resilient.
      It is essential that we bring inflation down to our 2% goal, if we are to have a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.The Federal Reserve’s just-announced decision to increase interest rates by three-quarters of one percent, the fourth rise this year, was not entirely unexpected, as my colleague Dominic Rushe explains:With the US economy teetering on the edge of a recession and inflation running at a four-decade high, the Federal Reserve announced another three-quarter of a percentage point increase in its benchmark interest rates on Wednesday, the second such increase in just over a month.The US central bank is aggressively raising rates at levels unseen since the mid-1990s as it struggles to tamp down soaring prices, which rose by an annual rate of 9.1% in June, the fastest inflation rate since 1981.The hike, the Fed’s fourth this year and the third consecutive one to be larger than usual, comes as central banks worldwide seek to calm price rises with higher rates.So far the rate rises appear to have done little to rein in rising prices and the costs of everything from food and rent to gas remain high. The Fed will not meet again until September, at which point more economic data will be available, and its decision committee should be better able to see if its policy is working.One important measure of the economy will be made public on Thursday, when the commerce department releases its latest survey of gross domestic product (GDP) – a broad measure of the cost of a wide range of goods and services across the US economy. Many economists are expecting growth to have slowed for the second quarter in a row – a guide used by many to declare a recession.Recessions are, however, officially declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a research group that uses a broad range of measures including jobs growth to decide when the US economy is shrinking. The NBER often makes its announcement well after a recession has begun, as it assesses other economic factors.Jobs growth remains strong – the US added 372,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate stayed low at 3.6%.But, for many, two months of declining GDP is a strong indicator that the economy is in a recession. Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies and senior fellow at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, pointed out this week that all of the last 10 recessions in the US have been preceded by two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.Read the full report:Fed announces another three-quarter-point increase in interest rates Read moreAs expected, the US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates by 0.75% in an attempt to cool raging inflation.We’ll have more details soon…Federal Open Market Committee statement: https://t.co/vwSnKyty12 #FOMC— Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) July 27, 2022
      A bill pledging support for human trafficking victims has passed the House, with 20 Republicans voting against.They include Florida congressman Matt Gaetz, who is the subject of a justice department investigation involving sex with a 17-year-old girl who once traveled with him, and several other close allies of former president Donald Trump.20 Republicans just voted NO on a bill to support human trafficking victims. Among the no votes are accused human trafficker Matt Gaetz, insurrectionist Paul Gosar, & self-described “Christian Nationalist” MT Greene.When people show you who they are—believe them the first time. pic.twitter.com/EjAzuuFER4— Qasim Rashid, Esq. (@QasimRashid) July 27, 2022
      Here’s where we are on a busy Wednesday, as we await the announcement from the Federal Reserve of a US interest rate hike:
      Gun manufacturers pocketed more than $1bn over a decade from the sales of AR-15 military-style weapons, as hundreds of Americans died in mass shootings. Carolyn Maloney, Democratic chair of the House oversight committee, said the gun industry was “profiting off the blood of innocent Americans.”
      Joe Biden tested negative for Covid-19 and returned to work in-person after a five-isolation to give an address in the White House Rose Garden. The president warned that the pandemic was resurgent and urged Americans to get vaccinated and boosted.
      House Democrats introduced a bill to establish term limits for supreme court justices, after an unprecedented term in which federal abortion rights were overturned and threats emerged from the right-wing panel to same-sex marriages and contraception.
      The justice department has centered its criminal inquiry over the January 6 insurrection to Donald Trump’s personal conduct as he fought to stay in office after his 2020 defeat by Joe Biden, per the Washington Post.
      House Democrats have introduced a bill to establish term limits for supreme court justices, after an unprecedented term in which the highest court produced a series of deeply conservative rulings upending American law.In June, a court dominated 6-3 by Republican appointees overturned the right to abortion. It also issued consequential rulings on gun control, the environment and other controversial issues.The Supreme Court Tenure Establishment and Retirement Modernization Act (Term), would establish 18-year terms for supreme court justices and establish a process for the president to appoint a new justice every two years. After an 18-year term, justices would be retired from active judicial service.If the bill were to take effect, the nine justices now on the court would essentially be forced into senior status in order of reverse seniority, as jurists were appointed under the new mechanism.Supreme court justices are currently appointed for life. The US stands alone as the only advanced democracy that does not have either a fixed term or a mandatory retirement age for judges on its highest court.“Regularizing appointments every two years will ensure a supreme court that is more representative of the nation, reflecting the choices of recently elected presidents and senators,” Hank Johnson, a Georgia Democrat who introduced the bill, said in a statement.“Term limits for supreme court justices are an essential tool to restoring a constitutional balance to the three branches of the federal government.”The bill is unlikely to pass. Republicans have vigorously shot down any attempts to change the makeup of the supreme court. Even if the measure passed the Democratic-controlled House, it would probably die in the Senate, where it would need the vote of 10 Republicans in addition to all Democrats to overcome the filibuster.Democrats introduce bill requiring term limits for US supreme court justicesRead moreSome Democrats in Washington are publicly fuming over the party’s decision to boost a Republican congressional candidate in Michigan who has questioned the 2020 election result.The outcry escalated after Axios reported that Democrats plan to spend $425,000 to air an ad ahead of Michigan’s primary, highlighting the conservative bona fides of John Gibbs, who is challenging the incumbent Republican, Peter Meijer.In his first term in Congress, Meijer was one of 10 House Republicans to support impeaching Donald Trump after the January 6 attack.The 30-second ad is styled as an attack ad against Gibbs but has dog-whistle themes designed to appeal to GOP voters.Jamie Raskin, a Maryland Democrat on the January 6 committee, said there was nuance in considering whether to boost election deniers.While he said he understood the argument that it was “categorically wrong” to boost election deniers, he also made a case for why it was appropriate to intervene.“In the real world of politics, one can also see an argument that if the pro-insurrectionist, election-denier wing of the Republican caucus is already dominant, then it might be worth it to take a small risk that another one of those people would be elected, in return for dramatically increasing the chances that Democrats will be able to hold the House against a pro-insurrectionist, election-denying GOP majority,” he told Axios.Democrats split by bid to boost election denier in Michigan Republican primaryRead more More

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      Why is US inflation so high – and how long will it last?

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      Why is US inflation so high – and how long will it last? Soaring prices a top concern for many Americans, and likely influencing many voters in a midterm election year Inflation in the US is at a 40-year high – an astounding 9.1% year-over-year, according to a government report released Wednesday.Prices have climbed every month, while consumer confidence has hit record lows. Inflation is now a top concern for many Americans, and is likely influencing many voters in a midterm election year.What is driving this inflation, however, is not new: rather, it is largely the fallout of two years of the Covid-19 pandemic. Here is what we know.Why is inflation in the US so high?The Covid-19 pandemic strapped the US economy on to a rollercoaster. In early 2020, nationwide lockdowns caused millions of Americans to be temporarily laid off from their jobs. Then president Donald Trump responded by signing a $2tn aid package aimed at directly helping businesses and individuals, including stimulus checks that put money directly into people’s pockets. It would ultimately be the first of three stimulus packages, together pumping an eye-watering $5tn into the economy.That summer, businesses slowly started to reopen. But it would take another year and a half for the unemployment rate to fall back to where it was before the pandemic, and with wages rising due to a tight labor market, consumer spending started to climb: people wanted new homes, restaurant meals, appliances and furniture.As the demand for goods soared, supply remained constrained – because of the infamous supply chain crisis, which is only just now starting to ease. At the peak of the crisis, ports were clogged with ships trying to dock, containers were falling into the ocean and there was a shortage of truck drivers. The war in Ukraine, along with China’s own coronavirus lockdown in the spring of this year, also played roles in keeping supply tight during 2022. That means higher prices.What sectors are driving inflation?Gas, food and housing prices have all soared, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Year-over-year, gas prices are up 7.5% – though Joe Biden has called the inflation rate “out-of-date”, as gas prices have been falling the last few weeks.Prices have also gone up at grocery stores, particularly for fruit, vegetables and non-alcoholic beverages. Grocery prices over the last year have risen 12.2% – the highest increase since April 1979. Home prices and rent have increased too – up 5.6% compared with last year.How long will inflation last?No one can really predict, nor do we know if it has peaked, because so many factors are at play. Gas prices are going down, it’s true, but it’s unclear whether that will be enough to send inflation downward as well.The Federal Reserve, headed by Jerome Powell, has been aggressive in its response to inflation, raising interest rates twice this year. Early reports indicate that the Fed is looking at yet another three-point interest rate hike at the end of the month.What are the lasting effects of inflation?High, long-lasting inflation is worrisome because it decreases the value of currency, weakening the purchasing power of the American dollar and eroding savings.The Fed’s control of interest rates is its most powerful tool to curb inflation. But it is a tough balancing act, as it risks a recession. A slowdown in investments could have a cascading effect on jobs and spending, though it remains too early to predict any recession – not that that has stopped certain people, and banks, from doing so.And there are some things inflation doesn’t necessarily affect. The unemployment rate has held steady at 3.6% – around the same rate as before the pandemic. And the economy has shown other signs of resilience – particularly in jobs, which grew 372,000 in June.TopicsUS economyEconomicsConsumer spendingFederal ReserveBiden administrationUS politicsexplainersReuse this content More