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      Can Biden win back Iowa rural voters who shifted away from Democrats?

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      During the eight years he served in the Iowa state Senate, Tod Bowman was a self-described “door knocker”, trekking to the front porches and patios of constituents in the rural counties he represented to appeal for votes.They would, in turn, tell Bowman, a moderate Democrat, of their concerns – that government assistance programs amounted to a “handout”, that too many undocumented migrants were entering the country, that Barack Obama, the president for much of Bowman’s time in office, was planning to take their guns away. Occasionally, whoever opened the door would start interrogating Bowman before he even finished introducing himself.“Are you a Democrat or a Republican?” was the typical demand, Bowman remembered. The former high school teacher and wrestling coach came up with his own disarming reply: “I’m an Iowan.”By 2018, such encounters were happening more and more frequently, and that November, voters in the farms and small towns that made up Bowman’s eastern Iowa district replaced him with a Republican. While Bowman believes a combination of alienation from the national Democratic party and dislike of some bills he supported led to his defeat, he saw only one man to blame for the rising hostility he faced on the campaign trail.View image in fullscreen“Trump certainly made it almost acceptable in our psyches to name call, to lie, to manipulate, to be very aggressive instead of civil,” Bowman said in an interview at his house in the town of Maquoketa. “I really feel he’s changed politics, probably, if not forever, for a certain, significant period of time.”Beyond altering the tone of American politics, Donald Trump’s ascension to the helm of the Republican party undid progress Democrats had made in winning the trust of voters in rural areas nationwide, and many of their election victories ever since have relied on support from cities and suburbs. Whether this trend continues could prove crucial in deciding the victor of this year’s presidential election, where turnout in rural areas could tip swing states towards either Trump or Joe Biden. It will also play a role in determining control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the latter of which Republicans are trying to gain by winning seats in Montana, West Virginia and Ohio.Few states exhibit the consequences of rural voters shifting away from Democrats better than Iowa. Once viewed by the party as a swing state, Trump won Iowa decisively in 2016 and carried 31 counties that had twice voted for Obama – the most of any single state. In the 2020 election, Biden won none of them back, and the president this year is not expected to campaign for victory in the Hawkeye state.The rise of Trump also undid a fragile tie that voters had unknowingly reached in Wyoming, a town of 523 people in Bowman’s district that was, at the end of 2015, the only community in Iowa with a population of more than 500 evenly split between registered Democrats and Republicans, according to a Des Moines Register analysis.The next year, Wyoming voters overwhelming voted for Trump. So, too, did the surrounding Jones county, which supported a Republican candidate for the first time in 28 years. Wyoming voted again for the New York real estate mogul in 2020, and today, there are more than twice as many registered Republicans than Democrats in town, according to the county auditor.“People are thinking that, you know, there’s a way to make a living, and there’s a way to do things, and I think it’s caused them to change parties. They’re tired of the way that the nation has been run,” the town’s mayor, Steve Agnitsch, a Republican, said by way of explanation for why Trump did so well with his neighbors.Tony Amsler, the chair of the county Democratic party, views the once-and-perhaps-future-president as a politician whose message seemed almost tailored to Iowa. “Democrats have traditionally been progressive when it comes to social issues. Iowans are very conservative when it comes to money. Those things are something, and then comes Donald Trump,” he said.“He certainly represented those who have been disenfranchised, those who think politics wasn’t listening to them. If you add this all together, you’ve got a juggernaut, and it’s hard to change direction.”The former president was the pick of Wyoming’s Republicans last week, when the Iowa caucuses were held. In the months preceding the first-in-the-nation contest, neither Trump nor any other candidate stopped in what is nicknamed “The Christmas City” for the lights Wyoming residents string all over its Main street each year. A few blocks of houses and businesses bisected by a state highway, Angitsch described his town as a community that is avoiding the stagnation that can grip the midwestern countryside. There are new buildings in its high school, the library is open five days a week and though Wyoming’s sole grocery store closed not long ago, a Dollar General was built just down the street.As for Trump, Biden, and their ilk, few in Wyoming believe either man, or anyone else in Washington DC for that matter, thinks much about the town.“We’re in podunkville. Nobody cares about the simple people in life,” said 67-year-old farmer Steve Wherry from a barstool at Rack’s Swinging Door, Wyoming’s main watering hole, where the television was showing a local news broadcast about Trump’s angry outbursts during his defamation trial in New York City that day.Wherry had voted for Trump in the past two presidential elections, and planned to do so for a third time in November, but with all the drama he heard from the news about the former president, he was less upbeat about his candidacy this time.View image in fullscreen“I think there’s people that are not gonna vote for him because of all the trials and all that stuff that’s going on, and there’s people that don’t think that he can guide this country in the right way,” Wherry said. “He’s got himself in trouble a little bit.”Sitting on the opposite end of the bar, 71-year-old retiree Craig Taylor said Trump’s troubles were enough to make him want to vote for someone else.“He’s all about the United States and the country, but they’re just not going to leave him alone,” said Taylor, who twice voted for Trump after supporting Obama in 2008.“We need to make America great again, but we need someone better than him to do it,” Taylor said, as he cracked open a Miller Light. But who? Conspiracy theorist and vaccine opponent Robert F Kennedy Jr was appealing, but Taylor didn’t think he would get much farther. “They’re not going to let him get in,” he said.Heather Campbell, a 39-year-old human resources manager, believed she had found a candidate who cared about communities like Wyoming in Tim Scott. Campbell saw the South Carolina senator speak when he visited her workplace in a nearby town, and was impressed by how he refrained from attacking any of his rivals.But Scott ended his campaign two months before the caucuses, deepening Campbell’s disillusionment with politics. “That’s what sucks,” she said, as she picked up dinner for her family. “He didn’t have the funding, he didn’t have the media funding, and that’s not right.”How communities like Wyoming ultimately vote can have ripple effects across the county. Republicans were able to create the current conservative supermajority on the supreme court only after Democratic senators were defeated in rural states like North and South Dakota, Missouri, Arkansas and Iowa, paving the way for the appointment of justices who have limited environmental regulation and allowed states to ban abortion.“The rural skew in especially the Senate and the electoral college is really shaping our institutions in a way that I don’t think people fully comprehend,” said Matt Hildreth, executive director of progressive group RuralOrganizing.org.Three years ago in Virginia, Republican Glenn Youngkin used strong support from the countryside to become governor of a blue state, while last year, a Democratic-aligned judge was elected to a crucial seat on Wisconsin’s supreme court, in part because of votes from the state’s smaller towns.In November, Democrats’ continued control of the Senate will hinge on the re-election of imperiled lawmakers from Montana and Ohio, both red states where rural voters are plenty. And in the expected rematch between Trump and Biden, turnout by right-leaning voters outside of population centers could determine if it is the former president or the current president at the inauguration next year.For Democrats, “You’re not looking to win some of these rural counties, you’re looking to cut the losses, maybe by two or three points, which could make a difference in a close race,” said Robin Johnson, an adjunct political science professor at Monmouth College in Illinois, who has consulted with the party on how to improve their rural support.View image in fullscreenIn his view, Democratic candidates have suffered in rural areas because they neglected campaign tactics that work. Chief among them: yard signs, which he says can greatly boost their visibility.“When I was working campaigns, you were taught that yard signs don’t vote. But in rural areas, it’s important because your neighbors notice. If you’ve got a sign up for a Democrat and you normally vote Republican, it kind of gives an okay to consider that person,” Johnson said.Two years ago, Amsler ran for a state house seat representing an area that included Wyoming. He met many voters who spoke approvingly of Biden and were supportive of his candidacy, but didn’t want to display a yard sign for his campaign.“I’m afraid of what those fanatics will do to my lawn, to my home,” they’d tell him.Amsler’s Republican opponent beat him handily, the same year the GOP gained a supermajority in the state senate, and defeated the last Democrat in its congressional delegation.“When I ran for office, I knew I would not win. I wanted to move the needle,” Amsler said. A year-and-a-half later, he’s not sure if he did. “What really concerns me is, we’ve had that real shift from purple to red.” More

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      The Truce review: deep dive on Democrats’ dynamics and divisions

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      Joe Biden is more unpopular than Donald Trump. The Democrats’ upstairs-downstairs coalition frays, riven by the Israel-Gaza war, crisis at the US-Mexico border and inter-generational tensions. The party convention in Chicago in August carries the potential for a repeat of 1968. Then, pandemonium in the Windy City helped cost Hubert Humphrey the White House.But for sustained Republican efforts to gut reproductive rights, a strong issue for Democrats to run on, Biden and Kamala Harris would be in even deeper trouble. Even on the economy: strong GDP numbers and an invigorated bull market have yet to yield political profit.After three years on the job, the 46th president is widely viewed as a back-slapping north-eastern pol and Hunter Biden’s dad – not the transformational figure he sees when he looks into the mirror. Worse for him, at 81, majorities say he’s just too old.With The Truce: Progressives, Centrists, and the Future of the Democratic Party, Hunter Walker and Luppe B Luppen cast a sympathetic eye toward the party of Biden, Barack Obama and the Squad, prominent progressives of color in the US House. Walker is an investigative reporter at Talking Points Memo who covered the White House for Yahoo News. Luppen is a lawyer with a social media presence. In the past, he has donated to Democrats including Obama and Hillary Clinton.Mindful of Democrats’ internal divisions, the authors warmly describe Biden’s shift left and the political cover conferred. Convincingly, Walker and Luppen argue that the tilt from the center united the party and helped Biden enact legislation – until the House was lost.“This rapprochement culminated in Joe Biden’s 2023 State of the Union address,” Walker and Luppen write, of a speech that “leaned hard on progressive policy priorities from promoting organized labor to getting a handle on police violence”.Unfortunately, it failed to make Biden any more palatable to much of the public. On the one hand, 71% are sympathetic to unions, the highest level since 1965. On the other, Democrats remain seen as soft on crime. In 2020, protesters’ demands to “defund the police” were a boost only to Trump.“Bernie [Sanders] may have lost the election,” the Massachusetts senator Ed Markey reportedly told Ilhan Omar, a Squad member from Minnesota, after the State of the Union, referring to the Democratic primary in 2020. “But he won the speech.”Sanders, from Vermont, is the only socialist in the Senate. Biden also needed the centrists, Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema but they were never his. To a point they gave him cover but they never embraced his agenda. Manchin, from West Virginia, now mulls a third-party White House run. Sinema became an independent.Walker and Luppen also describe the enthusiasm shown for Biden’s State of the Union by Jamaal Bowman, a New York congressman and Squad member.“Mr President, that was awesome – that was awesome!” Bowman is quoted as saying.“Did you write the speech?” he is shown asking Sanders.Bowman has attracted controversy of his own. In September, he pulled a fire alarm in a congressional office building, then denied doing so in an attempt to delay a crucial vote. He did plead guilty to a misdemeanor.More recently, Bowman praised Norman Finkelstein, an American academic who has accused Israel of using the Holocaust to justify its actions against Palestinians, who has said Holocaust deniers should be allowed to teach, and who on 7 October, the day Hamas fighters raped and murdered Israelis, wrote: “It warms every fiber of my soul [to see] the scenes of Gaza’s smiling children as their arrogant Jewish supremacist oppressors have, finally, been humbled.”Introducing Finkelstein at a panel session, Bowman said he was “starstruck” and had “watched him all the time on YouTube”. Under fire, Bowman said he had been “unaware of Norman Finkelstein’s completely reprehensible comments”.Encapsulating Democrats’ deepening divide over Israel, Bowman now faces a primary challenge from George Latimer, the Westchester county executive. Two months after that vote, the party will most likely face a convention fight fueled by the same issue.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionDoubt also swirls around Biden’s vice-president. Walker and Lappen distill it. “Kamala is not ready for prime time”, a “senior White House aide” is quoted as saying, adding: “She ain’t made for this.” Fifty seven percent of registered voters concur. Walker and Luppen are not done. “This person should not be president of the United States,” a “top aide” to the former California senator’s 2020 campaign says.“The problems Harris and her team experienced on her campaign persisted during her time as vice-president,” Walker and Luppen write, adding that a source offered a damning assessment: “It was, they said, Game of Thrones.”HBO also aired Veep.The Truce also shines a light on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, of New York and perhaps the most prominent Squad member. In the process, the book dishes on Corbin Trent, a former senior aide, and Riley Roberts, the congresswoman’s fiance.“I was hooked on fucking pain pills,” Trent acknowledges. Walker and Luppen stress that Ocasio-Cortez did not know. These days, Trent is back in the news for allegedly siphoning $140,000 in Pac money and for attempting to oust Biden as the nominee.As for Roberts, Walker and Luppen remind us of how his feelings for the police and his entrepreneurial spirit came to coincide. The authors recall a now-deleted site on which Roberts pushed the “Cop-Out Collective”, boasting, “High-end hemp t-shirts with our logo will be available for sale.”According to one poll, 47% of voters see the Democrats as too liberal, a seven-point swing since 2020. In another survey, only 57% of Democrats and Democratic-leaners expressed satisfaction with Biden as their nominee. More than seven-in-10 Republicans and allies are content with Trump.The Democrats have ceded economic policy to Sanders, their social agenda to Ivy League professors. When pivoting left on economics, it is imperative to remain in the cultural center. Democrats, including Biden, ignore this at their peril.
      The Truce is published in the US by WW Norton More

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      Biden vows to ‘shut down the border’ if Senate immigration bill is passed

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      Joe Biden said on Friday that the border deal being negotiated in the US Senate was the “toughest and fairest” set of reforms possible and vowed to “shut down the border” the day he signs the bill.The bipartisan talks have hit a critical point amid mounting Republican opposition. Some Republicans have set a deal on border security as a condition for further Ukraine aid.Earlier in the day, the House speaker, Mike Johnson, said the deal is “dead on arrival” in its current form, according to a letter to Republican lawmakers in the House of Representatives reviewed by Reuters.Biden, a Democrat seeking another term in the 5 November elections, has grappled with record numbers of migrants caught illegally crossing the US-Mexico border during his presidency. Republicans contend Biden should have kept the restrictive policies of Republican former President Donald Trump, the frontrunner for his party’s nomination.“What’s been negotiated would – if passed into law – be the toughest and fairest set of reforms to secure the border we’ve ever had in our country,” Biden said in a statement.“It would give me, as President, a new emergency authority to shut down the border when it becomes overwhelmed. And if given that authority, I would use it the day I sign the bill into law.”The White House has agreed to new limits on asylum at the border, including the creation of an expulsion power that would allow migrants who cross the US-Mexico border illegally to be rapidly returned to Mexico if migrant encounters surpass 4,000 per day, three sources familiar with the matter said.If encounters pass 5,000 per day, the use of the expulsion authority would become mandatory, according to the sources who requested anonymity to discuss details of the private negotiations.In December, encounters averaged more than 9,500 per day, according to US government statistics released on Friday.The sweeping authority would be comparable to the Covid-era Title 42 policy put in place under Trump during the pandemic and which ended under Biden in May 2023.Migrants trying to claim asylum would still be able to do so at legal border crossings if the expulsion power was in effect, one of the sources said.The US would be required to allow at least 1,400 migrants per day to approach legal crossings to claim asylum if the expulsions were in effect, the source added.The bill aims to resolve asylum claims in six months without detaining migrants, the source said, faster than the current process, which can take years.Trump, however, took to social media last week to warn against any deal that fails to deliver everything Republicans want to shut down border crossings.Biden also urged Congress on Friday to provide the funding he asked for in October to secure the border.“This includes an additional 1,300 border patrol agents, 375 immigration judges, 1,600 asylum officers, and over 100 cutting-edge inspection machines to help detect and stop fentanyl at our south-west border,” the president said. More

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      He’s beaten his Republican rivals and is ahead in the polls. But Trump is vulnerable | Jonathan Freedland

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      You’d think a week spent in the snow and ice of New Hampshire, watching Donald Trump stroll to a double-digit victory over his last remaining Republican rival, would have left me filled with angst about the presidential election in November. Sure enough, given that a second Trump presidency would have a truly disastrous impact on the US and the world, the fact that the now near-certain rematch of Trump and Joe Biden remains a “coin flip”, in the private assessment of one of America’s foremost electoral analysts, still makes my palms go clammy.But to my surprise, I left the frozen American north-east not hopeful, exactly, but lifted by the thought that Trump is weaker, and Biden stronger, than this week’s headlines – or the latest polls showing the current president six points behind the previous one – might suggest. Now when I hear the words “coin flip”, I react like Jim Carrey’s character in Dumb and Dumber, when told that the odds of him winning over the woman of his dreams are one in a million: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”Of course, the causes for gloom have not gone away. Biden’s age remains the biggest single obstacle to his re-election: even Democrats worry that he might just be too old to serve a second term, which would see him leave his Oval Office desk at the age of 86. Inflation has hurt him: a pair of 18-year-olds at Bedford High School told me they had cast their first vote for “Donald J Trump”, as they reverentially put it, in part because of high petrol prices. And too many voters blame Biden for the fact that “the world is on fire”, to quote Trump’s challenger, Nikki Haley. They see wars in Ukraine and in Gaza, hear Trump boast that there was no such trouble when he was in charge, and blame Biden.That aversion to overseas conflict, and fear of the US getting sucked in, is now loud in the once hawkish Republican party, but anti-war sentiment among Democrats poses its own danger to Biden. He is struggling to hold his party together. The left, and younger voters especially, are appalled by his support for Israel in its fight against Hamas – a sentiment that will only harden after the international court of justice’s ruling on Friday demanding that Israel ensures acts of genocide are not committed in Gaza. Young voters were a bedrock for Biden in 2020, but he can rely on them no longer. Those teenagers for Trump I met in Bedford were not the only ones.And yet, there are encouraging signs. In New Hampshire, Trump’s win over Haley was assured by his three-to-one lead among registered Republicans. His overall margin narrowed because she beat him convincingly among undeclared or independent voters, who under New Hampshire’s rules are allowed to take part in a party primary. I spoke to dozens of them, and few were motivated by admiration for the former US ambassador to the UN. On the contrary, their driving purpose was to stop “that man”, many expressing plain disgust for Trump.In the race for his party’s nomination, those views were easily swept aside by the Maga, or Make America Great Again, majority. But in a general election, independents can make the difference between victory and defeat. That they so heavily rejected Trump – 58% backing Haley – spells trouble for the former president. Those are voters Biden should be able to win over, but there are seams to mine among dissident Republicans too. In New Hampshire, about 25% of them could not stomach voting for Trump. Even if most Republicans eventually fall in line, it would take only a small slice to defect to Biden or stay home to deny Trump a second term.That may not be so hard to achieve. For the presumptive nominee remains as repellent as ever. His victory speech on Tuesday was a reminder of his talent for obnoxiousness. He humiliated one-time rivals who now back him and, as if setting out to alienate the suburban female voters who often form a decisive swing bloc in US elections, nodded along as the crowd chanted the nickname he’s given Haley – “birdbrain” – while he mocked the outfit she had worn at her own event earlier that evening: “I watched her in the fancy dress that probably wasn’t so fancy.”The macho boor stuff works well inside the Maga bubble, where the devotees love it, but it will do Trump no favours over the course of an exceptionally long general election campaign, which began, in effect, this week and will stretch to November. Paradoxically, Trump may have benefited from his post-6 January spell of enforced exile from most social media platforms, limiting how much Americans saw him. Now the spotlight is back on – and it is rarely flattering.That is especially true of his multiple and continuing court cases. Among the Republican base, the 91 felony charges against him are a badge of honour, proof that he’s a victim of the liberal deep state; among the wider US electorate, they don’t play so well. Note that even among those who voted for Trump in New Hampshire, 13% believe that, were he convicted of a crime, he would not be fit to be president. A verdict may not come in time for 5 November, but it’s further proof of Trump’s vulnerability.What of Biden’s strength? There was no real Democratic primary in New Hampshire, but there was a challenger, a perfectly competent congressman called Dean Phillips. Even though the president was not on the ballot, he crushed Phillips, thanks to a drive to get Democrats to “write in” Biden’s name. That suggests organisational muscle.And he can press at least two issues that have a proven record of winning elections for Democrats. The first is abortion, following the Supreme Court’s decision in the 2022 Dobbs case to end the constitutional protection of abortion rights. Trump brags that he’s “proud” of that, because it was he who appointed three rightwing judges to the court. But it’s not a popular position. On the contrary, Republicans have repeatedly lost at the ballot box since the court’s ruling, whether in elections or state-level referendums. “Dobbs may have broken the Republican party,” says the Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, who accurately predicted his party’s success in the 2022 midterms and is bullish about Biden’s chances now.The second issue is the core anti-Trump argument: that the man who tried to overturn the 2020 election is a would-be dictator who poses a threat to democracy. Add to that some healthy economic numbers and rising consumer confidence, and you can see the outline of a winning message.To be sure, the messenger remains flawed, though the veteran Republican consultant Mike Murphy thinks there’s a line Biden could use to deal with the age issue, one that would draw the contrast with his opponent: “We’re both old – but he’s old and crazy.” There’s peril, too, in third-party candidacies who would split the anti-Trump vote. The point is, no one could possibly be complacent about a Biden victory and Trump defeat in 2024. Like the man said, it’s a coin flip – but the evidence is telling us there’s a chance.
      Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist More

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      Biden hopes abortion will keep him in the White House. But has he done enough to protect rights?

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      Joe Biden’s re-election campaign has made a big bet that outrage over abortion will keep the president in the White House come November.Over the last several days, the Biden administration has unleashed a blitz of ads and events to spotlight the devastation wrought by the overturning of Roe v Wade. Biden met with a reproductive health task force, while his vice-president, Kamala Harris – who he has entrusted to lead this effort – embarked on a national tour to talk about abortion. They even devoted their first joint campaign stop of 2024 to the issue. From the podium, Biden promised to sign any bill that would codify Roe’s protections into law and to fight back efforts by Congress to diminish abortion access.“Donald Trump and Maga Republicans, including the speaker of the House, are hellbent on going even further,” Biden said, a reference to the hard-right Republican speaker, Mike Johnson. “As long as I have power of the presidency, if Congress were to pass a national abortion ban, I would veto it.”Congress is unlikely to ban or protect abortion anytime soon. Not only is Congress largely frozen – it passed just 27 bills last year – but both political parties seem wary of tackling national legislation around a third-rail topic like abortion.Now that Roe is gone, the question of if and how to regulate abortion access is largely up to state governments to answer. But the executive branch of the US government still maintains several powers to protect abortion access – and undermine it.What has Biden done to protect abortion access?The Biden administration’s ability to enforce remaining federal laws that touch on abortion is perhaps its greatest weapon in the fight over the procedure. Shortly after Roe’s demise, the Biden administration announced that it believed a 1986 federal law that protects people’s access to emergency care at hospitals also applies to emergency abortions. The administration later sued Idaho, arguing that the state’s near-total abortion ban flew in the face of that law, the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (Emtala).That case has now made its way to the US supreme court. The supreme court justices are also set to hear arguments in a case involving the availability of a major abortion pill – a case in which the Biden administration is, once again, arguing in favor of abortion access.“Being a check on the supreme court is pretty significant,” said Mary Ziegler, a University of California Davis school of law professor who studies the legal history of reproduction. The US supreme court is dominated 6-3 by conservatives. “If the supreme court says that you can or should enforce rules against abortion providers, I don’t think a Biden administration is going to do that.”Since Roe fell, anti-abortion activists have also begun to argue that the federal government could enforce a de facto national abortion ban through the Comstock Act, a 19th-century anti-obscenity law that bans the mailing of abortion-related materials.However, the Biden administration has issued guidance declaring that they do not believe the Comstock Act can or should be used to enforce a national abortion ban. According to the Biden administration, as long as someone does not intend to break the law when they mail abortion-related materials, they are not violating the Comstock Act.What more could Biden be doing?The answer depends on who you ask. Abortion rights advocates have long been dissatisfied with Biden’s approach to the procedure; Biden has supported Roe’s protections but also said that, as a Catholic, he is personally not “big on abortion”. During his campaign and the first several months of his presidency, he seemed wary of even saying the word “abortion”, leading reproductive justice advocates to launch a website devoted to answering the question “Did Biden Say Abortion Yet?” (He has now said it multiple times.)The Biden administration has pursued several cases under the Freedom of Access to Clinic Entrances Act, or Face Act, a federal law that penalizes people for threatening, obstructing, or injuring someone who is trying to access a reproductive health clinic, or for vandalizing a clinic. But abortion providers have long complained that the law is not being enforced enough.Abortion rights supporters have also proposed a litany of other, experimental ways to protect abortion access, such as by leasing federal land to abortion providers or advocating for the repeal of the Comstock Act. Biden could also loosen regulations around abortion pills, although Ziegler cautioned that such actions run the risk of politicizing the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to a dangerous degree. Abortion rights advocates have also said that the Biden administration could take steps to lessen the impact of the Helms Amendment, a decades-old law that has been used to block the use of federal funding to pay for abortions. Advocates have accused Biden of inappropriately over-enforcing the Helms Amendment, to the point that the US Agency for International Development in 2021 cancelled a conference session on the provision of safe telemedicine abortion.However, in Ziegler’s view, the threat of the supreme court tamps down on Biden’s ability to innovate. Rather than pursuing novel, national ways to protect abortion access and run the risk of litigation, the administration may want to stay out of federal court entirely.“I think Biden has been really cautious,” Ziegler said. “But I do also think that had he not been as cautious, it could have ended up the same or worse anyway, just because the supreme court is so conservative.”What could Donald Trump do to further restrict abortion?If Trump wins the presidency in November 2024, he may reverse course on many of the Biden administration’s decisions around how and if to enforce federal abortion law. He could try to implement the Comstock Act to ban abortion in some form, including in states that haven’t passed bans. He could also decrease Face Act prosecutions, or tighten regulations on mifepristone.Unlike Biden, he likely wouldn’t worry about politicizing the FDA, Ziegler said. “There’s a lot of asymmetry that hurts Democrats, but also Democrats do value some of these institutional separations that Republicans don’t.”Trump’s first four years in the White House also offer a blueprint for how he may further dismantle access to both abortion and contraception if he returns to power.Since the 1980s, whenever a Republican becomes president, he has implemented what is known as “the Mexico City policy” or the “global gag rule”, as abortion rights supporters call it. This policy typically blocks foreign NGOs that receive US family planning funding from providing abortion-related services or even advocating for increased access to the procedure. (Historically, whenever a Democrat replaces a Republican as president, he has rescinded the Mexico City policy.)Trump, however, turbocharged the Mexico City policy during his presidency. Rather than stripping funding only from family planning assistance, in 2017 his administration expanded it to apply to all US global health assistance. Rather than impacting $600m worth of funding, by 2018 it impacted $12bn, according to estimates by the Guttmacher Institute, which supports abortion rights.As president, Trump also implemented a “domestic gag rule”, which blocked members of Title X, the nation’s largest family planning program, from even referring people for abortions. Rather than comply with this rule, a quarter of Title X-funded health centers simply left the program. Six states were left with zero Title X providers, who offer low-cost access to family planning services like birth control.If Trump wins in 2024, he will likely reinstate this rule, said Robin Summers, vice-president and senior counsel for the National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Association. And that’s just the beginning of Summers thinks he might do.“I think it only gets worse,” Summers said.Trump could, Summers suggested, legally label certain forms of hormonal birth control – such as IUDS – as abortifacients, suggesting that they cause abortions. (Medical experts widely believe that they do not.) The US supreme court has previously supported a similar move. In a 2014 decision, issued when the court’s makeup was far less conservative, the justices ruled that a corporation did not have to cover certain forms of birth control for employees because the corporation’s religious owners believed them to be abortifacients.“The bottom line here is that advocates sounded the alarm for years that Roe was at significant risk of being overturned. And we were dismissed by many as catastrophizing the whole thing,” Summers said. “And look where we are.” More

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      Indictments fueled extremists’ support for Trump, survey finds

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      The criminal charges against Donald Trump have fueled increased radical support for the former president while his efforts to paint the government and Democrats as a threat to democracy have convinced more people to distrust democratic institutions.New survey results from the University of Chicago’s Chicago Project on Security & Threats (CPOST) shows increased violent support for Trump aligns with the indictments, as did the erosion of support for democratic norms. Court cases using the 14th amendment to try to keep Trump off the ballot could further erode confidence in the political system, regardless of how the supreme court rules on the issue, the survey found.Support for democratic norms has gone from “bad to worse”, said Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago who directs CPOST. The two ideas are connected: The more a person believes the system is corrupt or rigged, the more likely they are to support using violence instead of the political system.“Once you think you live in a corrupt political system, then you give up on politics as a solution and you go for violence,” Pape said.While 50% of survey respondents said Trump was a threat to democracy, now 36% said the same of Democratic president Joe Biden. That means Trump’s attempt to twist messaging is working: the former president has repeatedly attacked Biden in recent months as Biden warns of the threat Trump poses to democracy after Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump has called Biden a “threat to democracy” and a “destroyer” of democracy.Effectively, Trump has turned a losing issue for himself, the future of democracy, into much less of a liability, particularly among Republicans.“His new argument … is that the institutions of government are unfairly targeting him,” Pape said. “And what this data is showing is that he is actually persuading significant numbers of people on this issue.”Support for violence has also increased across the political spectrum, a sign of intense polarization and weakened beliefs in the political system. The percentage of people who believe using force would be justified to keep Trump from being president again is higher, at 9.6%, than the percentage of people willing to use force to restore Trump to the presidency, at 6.5%.Through the 2024 election, CPOST will be releasing new survey data tracking continued dangers to democracy every quarter. The data will be published first with the Guardian.The survey results cut across various questions about the state of American democracy. Now, 50% of survey participants said political elites, both Republicans and Democrats, are the most immoral and corrupt people in America, up from 42% a year ago. And 63% said they agreed that a small group of elites controls all the levers of power and enriches themselves at the cost of normal Americans, up from 54% last January.Support for conspiracy theories has increased during that time as well: 22% now believe Biden stole the 2020 election, up from 21%; 30% believe the Democratic party is trying to replace the current electorate with more obedient voters from the third world, up from 21%; and 14% believe a secret group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles is ruling the US government, up from 11%.They are also more likely to support the use of violence to achieve political goals now compared with one year ago. 16% said the use of force is justified to coerce Congress, up from 9%, while 6.5% said force would be justified to return Trump to the White House, compared with 4.5% last January. On abortion rights, 9% said force would be justified to restore them, up from 8%.Supporters of Trump who also believe in using violence to achieve their political goals are statistically much more likely to believe democratic institutions are deeply corrupt: 68% of that subgroup believe the 2020 election was stolen; 56% say their party has virtually no chance of winning elections in 2024 because the system is rigged and 81% think the prosecutions of Trump are intended to hurt his electoral prospects this year.Those radical Trump supporters are the most likely to move toward violence if they don’t achieve their goals through the political process, Pape said. And depending on how Trump himself fares politically, he could instigate or orchestrate violence as well, he said.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“If Trump is put in jail, in prison, then his radical support is likely to go up,” Pape said. “And that’s where political violence is most likely to happen from the right.”The 14th amendment cases, where left-leaning groups have filed lawsuits seeking to remove Trump from the ballot for violating the 14th Amendment by participating in an insurrection while an officer of the US, could exacerbate the political violence problem, no matter which way the case is decided by the US supreme court.There’s an extreme partisan divide on the issue. For Democrats, 78% support disqualifying Trump from the ballot. For Republicans, 72% believe removing him would be an assault on democracy, with 16% of Republicans saying it would justify the use of force to restore him to the White House.“There’s a real risk that whatever the supreme court decides is going to be viewed as illegitimate by one side or the other in the 14th amendment controversy,” Pape said.There’s a subset of Republicans, 14%, that support disqualifying Trump. Of that group, 24% already plan to vote for Biden, while 71% said they wouldn’t vote for Trump. The group is heavily college-educated. Pape said this group is “enough to swing 2024” and serves as a “critical vulnerability for Trump” that his opponents could target in key states.In order to subdue any claims of illegitimacy, the court itself should work to publicly explain its reasoning and make the case that its decision was based on the facts of the case, Pape said.“This is why democracies fade into authoritarianism. These are the issues, ” he said. More

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      Biden attacks Trump after securing UAW endorsement; union says Trump is ‘against everything we stand for’ – as it happened

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      “We have more work to do but our plan is delivering to the American people, building an economy from the bottom up, not the top down,” said Biden.“If I’m going to be in a fight, I want to be in a fight with you, UAW. We have a big fight in front of us. We’re fundamentally changing the economy of this country, taking it from the economy that takes care of those at the top… All anyone wants is just a fair shot, an even shot,” he added.”“You’re the heroes of this story,” he continued.Biden also condemned Donald Trump’s policies, saying, “He’s the only president other than Herbert Hoover who lost jobs when he was president.”“He cut taxes for the very wealthy and the biggest corporations. He shipped good paying jobs overseas because labor was cheaper… It hollowed out entire communities, closing factories, I’m not making this up, you know this to be true,” Biden added.Here is a wrap-up of the day’s key events:
      The United Auto Workers union has endorsed Joe Biden for re-election as president. Addressing the union, UAW president Shawn Fain said: “This November, we can stand up and elect someone who stands with us and supports our cause, or we can elect someone who will divide us, and fight us every step of the way.”
      Joe Biden addressed the UAW at its conference in Washington DC and was met with repeated applause and cheers following the union’s endorsement of him. “I’ve always fought for a strong auto industry… You deserve to benefit when these companies thrive… Record profits mean record contracts,” said Biden, adding, “We build in America, we buy in America.”
      Joe Biden also condemned Donald Trump’s policies, saying, “He’s the only president other than Herbert Hoover who lost jobs when he was president.” “He cut taxes for the very wealthy and the biggest corporations. He shipped good paying jobs overseas because labor was cheaper… It hollowed out entire communities, closing factories, I’m not making this up, you know this to be true,” Biden added.
      Joe Biden’s re-election campaign expressed confidence in the president’s ability to again defeat Donald Trump in November, even as polls show the two men running neck and neck. Biden also made some changes to his campaign team, bringing in reinforcements from the White House.
      Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel called on Nikki Haley to drop her 2024 presidential bid, the day after Trump beat her in the New Hampshire primary. “Looking at the math and the path going forward…I don’t see it for Nikki Haley,” said McDaniel.
      Nikki Haley vowed to carry on her campaign despite losing the New Hampshire primary by a significant margin. She immediately headed to her home state of South Carolina, which holds its Republican primary on 23 February.
      Donald Trump comfortably won the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday evening, beating his only remaining credible contender, Haley, into second place. It was not a crushing victory but it was solid.
      Ryan Binkley, a Texas pastor and co-founder of a financial services firm, remains committed to becoming the US’s next president. Binkley, who received 0.1% of the votes – or 284 votes – in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, has his eyes now set on Nevada. “Please keep spreading the word about http://Binkley2024.com as I move forward to Nevada,” he wrote on X.
      That’s it from me, Maya Yang, as we wrap up the blog for today. Thank you for following along.Ryan Binkley, a Texas pastor and co-founder of a financial services firm, remains committed to becoming the US’s next president.Binkley, who received 0.1% of the votes – or 284 votes – in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, has his eyes now set on Nevada.In a post on X, Binkley thanked New Hampshire residents, saying:
      “New Hampshire: Thank you for a great few days. I enjoyed the time and conversation around issues that matter to all Americans. Thank you for being #FITN [’first in the nation’]. Please keep spreading the word about http://Binkley2024.com as I move forward to Nevada.”
      He went on to include several hashtags including “#WhoIsRyanBinkley.”Binkley, who launched his presidential bid nine months ago, has spent more than $8m of his own money on his campaign.Explaining his decision to run, Binkley said, “God spoke to me.”Here is video of United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain announcing UAW’s endorsement of Joe Biden: Fain said:
      “We need to know who is going to stand up with us and this choice is clear. “Joe Biden bet on the American worker, while Donald Trump blamed the American worker! We need to know who’s going to sit in the most powerful seat in the world and help us win as a united working class. So if our endorsements must be earned, Joe Biden has earned it!”
      Biden concluded his speech to a room full of applause, saying, “It’s never ever ever been a good bet to bet against the American people.”“I’ve never been more optimistic about America’s future… There’s nothing beyond our capacity when we work together,” he added.“We have more work to do but our plan is delivering to the American people, building an economy from the bottom up, not the top down,” said Biden.“If I’m going to be in a fight, I want to be in a fight with you, UAW. We have a big fight in front of us. We’re fundamentally changing the economy of this country, taking it from the economy that takes care of those at the top… All anyone wants is just a fair shot, an even shot,” he added.”“You’re the heroes of this story,” he continued.Biden also condemned Donald Trump’s policies, saying, “He’s the only president other than Herbert Hoover who lost jobs when he was president.”“He cut taxes for the very wealthy and the biggest corporations. He shipped good paying jobs overseas because labor was cheaper… It hollowed out entire communities, closing factories, I’m not making this up, you know this to be true,” Biden added.“I strongly believe a company’s transition to new technology should…include every hire in the same factories in the same communities with comparable wages,” said Biden.“Existing union workers should have the first shot at these jobs,” he added.“I don’t believe any company should be using threats or tactics to stand in the way of workers’ righst to organize. Period,” he continued.The crowd descended into a united chant of “UAW!” as Biden looked on.“We build in America, we buy in America,” said Biden. “Because of you, Toyota, Volkswagen, Nissan…all gave their workers double digit raises. Because of you!” he said.“I’ve always fought for a strong auto industry… You deserve to benefit when these companies thrive… Record profits mean record contracts,” Joe Biden told a cheering crowd.“I’m tired of jobs going overseas… But not anymore. We’re building products here and shipping overseas!” he added.The influence of the union, a symbol of America’s working class, cannot be understated.The endorsement secures a major win for Biden, who hoped to win the group’s favor after appearing on a picket line with striking auto workers last fall – a first for a sitting president. Biden said it was his goal to “be the most pro-union president ever.”A grateful Biden has now taken the stage after receiving UAW’s endorsement.“This November, we can stand up and elect someone who stands with us and supports our cause, or we can elect someone who will divide us, and fight us every step of the way,” UAW president Shawn Fain said.“That’s what this choice is about. The question is, who do we want in that office to give us the best shot of winning?”“Biden!” someone could be heard shouting from the crowd.The endorsement of UAW is likely to send a message that Biden is on the side of working-class Americans – a group the Trump campaign has tried to court in the past.Addressing the union, UAW president Shawn Fain spoke of unity and putting fear in the hearts of the billionaire class.“They try to weaken us by dividing us,” Fain said, referring to large corporations that take the lion’s share of profits. “The wealthy divide the masses as the rich walk away with all the money.”Biden is about to address the United Automobile Workers union at their conference held in Washington. The powerful labor group is expected to endorse the president for a second term, AP reports. It’s good news for Biden who needs to make gains in key swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin, where auto-manufacturing is major industry.UAW also endorsed Biden in 2020.Joe Biden is about to address the annual conference of the United Auto Workers union, in Washington, DC, and reports are multiplying that the union intends to endorse him for re-election as US president.The Democrat from working class Scranton has frequently called himself the most pro-union US president and he became the first sitting president to appear on a picket line when he supported the auto workers in their industrial action against the big three makers of Ford, General Motors and Chrysler vehicles last fall.Outlets including NBC, CNN and the New York Times are among those citing sources that the UAW will endorse Biden this afternoon. Reuters cited the NYT in its report.Biden told striking workers last September in Michigan that they deserved a big pay rise, after years of wage scrimping while their corporations did well. The workers ended up getting deals and resolving the strikes.The Senate this afternoon is expected to confirm Jacquelyn Austin to become a US district judge South Carolina and Cristal Brisco to become a US district judge in the northern district of Indiana.The two women will bring the total number of Black women appointed to lifetime seats on the federal bench in Joe Biden’s presidency to 35.Judge Brisco will be the first Black judge and first woman of color to serve as a lifetime judge on the northern district of Indiana. Judge Austin will be the third Black woman to serve as a lifetime judge on the district of South Carolina and the only Black woman who will be currently serving, the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights noted in a statement earlier today.“Milestones like this are important. The Senate’s confirmation of 35 Black women – many of whom have worked to advance civil and human rights throughout their legal careers – to lifetime appointments on our federal courts continues the Biden administration’s historic progress toward building a judiciary that reflects and represents the vast diversity of our nation. We celebrate this progress, including the critical yet underrepresented legal backgrounds that many of these judges bring to the bench,” said Lena Zwarensteyn, senior director of the fair courts program at The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights.Asked about the milestone at a media briefing in the west wing earlier, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that Joe Biden “has been very proud of the women, the women of color, that he has been able to put forward for these positions…It’s important that we have this kind of representation, representation matters.”It’s been a lively morning after the night before in New Hampshire and there’s much afoot in Washington and on the campaign trail, so follow events here as they happen.Here’s where things stand:
      Joe Biden’s re-election campaign expressed confidence in the president’s ability to again defeat Donald Trump in November, even as polls show the two men running neck and neck. Biden also made some changes to his campaign team, bringing in reinforcements from the White House.
      Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel called on Nikki Haley to drop her 2024 presidential bid, the day after Trump beat her in the New Hampshire primary.
      Joe Biden won New Hampshire’s Democratic presidential primary, even though the incumbent refused to campaign in the state and had to rely on a write-in campaign powered by his allies and surrogates to secure a victory.
      Nikki Haley vowed to carry on her campaign despite losing the New Hampshire primary by a significant margin. She immediately headed to her home state of South Carolina, which holds its Republican primary on 23 February.
      Donald Trump comfortably won the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday evening, beating his only remaining credible contender, Haley, into second place. It was not a crushing victory but it was solid.
      Dean Phillips, the Democratic congressman from Minnesota, is pushing on with his 2024 bid for president.On Wednesday, Phillips departed for South Carolina ahead of the state’s primaries next month. According to his campaign, Phillips is set to greet patrons at the Bistreaux by Fleur de Licious, a restaurant in the state capital Columbia, this evening.Speaking to ABC on Tuesday, Phillips vowed to stay in the race, saying,
      “The country would be much happier with a Dean Phillips-Nikki Haley matchup this November. I know she’s hearing that. I’m hearing the same thing.”
      Donald Trump spent his victory night in New Hampshire privately seething to his aides, according to reports.CNN reports that after the polls for the state’s primary closed, Trump “continued to rail against Nikki Haley privately and publicly after she declined to drop out of the race”.The ex-president also reportedly told his aides that he was baffled that Haley remains adamant about staying in the race, and urged his political aides to ramp up their attacks on his former UN ambassador.During his speech last night, Trump issued a warning to Haley, saying: “Just a little note to Nikki. She’s not going to win. But if she did, she would be under investigation by those people in 15 minutes, and I could tell you five reasons why already.”He added: “Not big reasons, little stuff that she doesn’t want to talk about, that she will be under investigation within minutes, and so would Ron [DeSantis] have been, but he decided to get out.Joe Biden’s campaign expressed confidence in the president’s ability to again defeat Donald Trump in November, even as polls show the two men running neck and neck.Quentin Fulks, Biden’s deputy campaign manager, noted that Trump’s 11-point margin of victory in New Hampshire last night was actually narrower than his 20-point win in 2016, when he was running against more opponents.“To put simply, Trump’s party is divided, and now he’s about to face the only politician who has ever beaten him and who did so with more votes than any presidential candidate in history: President Joe Biden,” Fulks said.But reporters pressed campaign officials about Biden’s performance in polls, some of which show Trump pulling ahead in key battleground states.“We don’t govern based on polls, and polls are just a snapshot in time,” said Cedric Richmond, the Biden campaign co-chair. “If I had a dollar for every time somebody counted Joe Biden out based on polls or something else, then I’d be independently wealthy.”He added: “Do we think we’re going to win? Absolutely. Because there’s too much on the line not to for the American people.” More

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      Upbeat Haley vows to press on but prospects against Trump look bleak

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      Nikki Haley was surprisingly peppy as she took the stage in New Hampshire on Tuesday, considering she had just suffered her second bruising defeat by Donald Trump. Trump beat Haley by 11 points in New Hampshire, a victory that came on the heels of the former president’s 30-point win in the Iowa caucuses.Undaunted by the reality of her losses, the former UN ambassador pledged that she would continue on in the Republican presidential primary. Haley voiced confidence about her performance in her home state of South Carolina, which will hold its Republican primary on 24 February.“New Hampshire is first in the nation. It is not the last in the nation,” Haley told supporters in Concord. “This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go, and the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.”But everyone not named Nikki Haley appears all too ready to declare the Republican primary over. With Trump winning a historic majority of votes in Iowa and New Hampshire, Haley’s path to the nomination appears increasingly difficult – if not impossible. In his victory speech on Tuesday, Trump belittled her efforts to downplay her losses and mocked her decision to stay in the race.“She had a very bad night,” Trump said. “She came in third [in Iowa], and she’s still hanging around.”In a rare moment of agreement between Trump and Joe Biden, the president made clear that he would turn his attention to the general election in November, effectively writing off any chance of a Haley comeback.“It is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. And my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher,” Biden said in a statement. “I want to say to all those independents and Republicans who share our commitment to core values of our nation our Democracy, our personal freedoms, an economy that gives everyone a fair shot – to join us as Americans.”Despite Haley’s claims to the contrary, her prospects in South Carolina and beyond look bleak. According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, Trump is running 37 points ahead of Haley in South Carolina, where he has already locked up the endorsements of the state’s governor and senators. If anything, Haley’s losing performance in New Hampshire may represent a high-water mark for her, given her strong support among independent voters who were allowed to participate in the Republican primary.There’s also the question of money. Haley has reportedly planned a major fundraising swing with big donors in the coming weeks. However, if those donors start abandoning her in large numbers, Haley may have no choice but to withdraw .Of course, Haley’s campaign insists she can be competitive in many states that will vote on Super Tuesday, which falls on 5 March. In a campaign memo circulated on Tuesday, Betsy Ankney, Haley’s campaign manager, noted that roughly two-thirds of the 874 delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday are in states with open or semi-open primaries.“Until then, everyone should take a deep breath. The campaign has not even begun in any of these states yet,” Ankney said. “A month in politics is a lifetime. We’re watching democracy in action. We’re letting the people have a voice. That’s how this is supposed to work.”As Haley looks ahead to South Carolina, her campaign has leaned into the message that she is the most electable Republican candidate. In one of two new ads that the Haley campaign dropped in South Carolina on Wednesday, a narrator highlights Biden and Trump’s unpopularity and makes the pitch for a new era of political leadership.“Biden – too old. Trump – too much chaos,” the narrator in the ad says. “A rematch no one wants. There’s a better choice for a better America.”Some data supports Haley’s electability argument. She performed well with moderate Republican voters in New Hampshire, pointing to a potential vulnerability for Trump in November, and one Wall Street Journal poll frequently cited by Haley’s team showed her beating Biden by 17 points in a general election.The problem is, she has no viable route to that general election.Nevertheless, at the election night watch party in Concord, Haley’s supporters echoed the candidate’s resilience.“I’m not about to have a panic attack after one state,” Marie Mulroy, 76, said moments after Haley spoke. Mulroy is an independent New Hampshire voter who backed Biden in 2020 and remains hopeful she’ll have the opportunity to cast her ballot for the first female president in November.“If it’s like this after Super Tuesday, then you start thinking,” she added.Mary Ann Hanusa was so committed to electing Haley that she flew to New Hampshire to volunteer for her campaign after caucusing for Haley in Iowa, where she lives. Hanusa said she was prepared to go to South Carolina to help.“I think Americans deserve a choice,” she said. “We’ve got 48 states to go.” More