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      Not done yet: still-smarting Joe Biden to focus on his legacy in final months

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      When a reporter asked if the White House had already started the transition process, Karine Jean-Pierre seemed bemused. “Why?” the press secretary retorted. “Are you trying to kick us out already? We’ve got five months.”Whatever excitement there is in American politics at the moment, the White House is not the centre of the action. What was expected to be a hectic final sprint towards the presidential election, with Joe Biden pinballing between swing-state rallies, has been replaced by long, languorous afternoons in humid Washington.Since 81-year-old Biden ended his re-election campaign after losing the confidence of fellow Democrats, his schedule has been appreciably quieter and his public appearances more scarce. As the party’s new nominee, Vice-President Kamala Harris, 59, barnstorms the country and electrifies crowds, there are some days when Biden lies low and is not seen at all.Jean-Pierre recently acknowledged that the president and White House were still “recalibrating” after his decision. “We are trying to figure out what the next six months are going to look like,” she told journalists. “Just give us a beat.”Such absences can create an impression that Biden is less running through the tape than staggering across the finish line. The vacuum can be filled by baseless rightwing conspiracy theories suggesting that Biden is no longer fit for office and that Harris, former president Barack Obama or some other deep state operative is actually running the government.However, analysts say, Biden is making a deliberate choice to work on cementing his legacy – and ensuring the election of Harris to protect it from Republican rival Donald Trump. Though his relevance is diminished, the fact he no longer needs to worry about getting re-elected could prove liberating.Domestically he hopes to keep money flowing from a series of major legislative wins early in his term that could be undone should Trump return to the White House. He will press to quickly fill federal judiciary vacancies and last month he proposed reforms for the supreme court, calling on Congress to establish term limits and an enforceable ethics code for the nine justices.View image in fullscreenForeign policy represents Biden’s best hope for a final defining moment. Last week he helped secure the release of the Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, former US marine Paul Whelan and others in the biggest prisoner swap between Moscow and the US since the cold war.Now he is racing against the clock to persuade Israel and Hamas to agree to his proposed three-phase ceasefire deal to bring home remaining Israeli hostages and potentially pave the way for an end to the 10-month-old war in Gaza. At the same time, he is desperate to avoid tensions with Iran escalating into an all-out regional conflagration.Bill Galston, a former policy adviser to President Bill Clinton, said: “I would imagine that he is going to devote a lot of time and energy to the situation in the Middle East. He surely doesn’t want history to record that the final months of his tenure witnessed the outbreak of the first comprehensive Middle East war in decades, a war that he, like others, has been struggling to avoid.“I would think that it’s going to be all hands on deck to try to contain the ripples of the Iranian attack when it comes, to try to prevent Israel and Hezbollah from moving from tit-for-tat to something much worse, and finally figure out a way of getting the Gaza ceasefire done.”Governing well might also be a more effective way of helping Harris than making speeches. Enthusiasm for the vice-president at rallies and online has already far exceeded anything that he could muster. Biden is not expected to feature prominently as a campaign surrogate for reasons of both style and substance.His low approval rating, especially on issues such as immigration, inflation and Gaza, would saddle his deputy with unwanted baggage. Moreover, the gaffe-prone oldest president in American history would not be a natural fit for Harris’s optimistic, future-focused campaign. Her running mate, Tim Walz, told her this week: “Thank you for bringing back the joy.”Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution thinktank in Washington, added: “She needs a chance to separate herself from him without breaking ranks with him and that will be easier if she draws a bright line between her candidacy and his presidency. I’m not saying that he should become invisible but I don’t think he should be highly visible either, except in his presidential capacity.”Past lame-duck presidents have used their waning days to seek one more big policy win. In 2000 Clinton launched negotiations between the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Barak, and the Palestinian Authority leader, Yasser Arafat, at Camp David in one last – and ultimately doomed – effort at securing Middle East peace. In 2008 George W Bush signed into law a $700bn bailout of the financial services industry as the global crisis deepened.View image in fullscreenBut Biden may still be brooding over how a dismal debate performance in June destroyed his hopes of a second term. He is reportedly smarting over those who orchestrated the end of his 51-year political career and the even swifter embrace of Harris as his replacement. His first in-depth interview since the announcement will be broadcast on CBS News on Sunday.Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, said: “I can imagine that there’s a lot of frustration in Biden world because Biden would most definitely like to be rounding out his administration and pursuing his policies but the energy and the resources of the Democratic party are about winning the next election.”Jacobs added: “If he is campaigning he becomes the subject of the Trump campaign for being frail and clueless. There’s nothing good that Joe Biden can do. Also, Kamala Harris needs to clearly identify herself as a distinct and separate brand and she can’t do that if Joe Biden is on the campaign trail.”However, Biden is still sure to receive a rapturous welcome later this month in Chicago, where he is expected to give a prime-time address on the first night of the Democratic national convention before leaving the stage clear for Harris and Walz. The party will be eager to project unity and gratitude for his selfless act in passing the torch.Donna Brazile, a political strategist and former interim chair of the Democratic National Committee, said: “He has done more to get this country on the right track than any other president at least in modern history and it’s up to him to decide when and where he will enter in the 2024 race.“Look, he left the vice-president with millions in the bank, with hundreds of thousands of volunteers, over 400 campaign offices. I don’t know how much more we want from Joe Biden but he has given the vice-president a head start and a very healthy start in this 90-day marathon.” More

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      Polls show Kamala Harris building lead over Trump in 2024 election

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      Kamala Harris continues to gain strength in the US presidential election, as polls nationally and in battleground states show her building leads or catching Donald Trump.On Friday morning, FiveThirtyEight, a leading polling analysis site, puts Harris, the Democratic party’s presumptive nominee for president, up by 2.1 points over her Republican rival in its national average.In averages for swing states, where control of the White House rests, Harris led in Michigan by two points, Pennsylvania by 1.1 point and Wisconsin by 1.8 points. Trump led in Arizona by less than half a point and in Georgia by half a point.In battleground states without enough polls to calculate averages, Trump was ahead by about three points in North Carolina and the candidates were about level in Nevada. In the latter state, recent CBS and Bloomberg polls have given Harris two-point leads while on Friday the Nevada Independent reported a poll showing the Democrat six points up.The US vice-president, 59, has changed the election race since mid-July, when Joe Biden, 81, finally heeded calls from his own party to step aside for a younger candidate to take on Trump, who is 78. He endorsed Harris to take over the top of the Democratic ticket for this November, while he serves out his single term.On Thursday night, Amy Walter, of the non-partisan Cook Political Report, told PBS that before Harris entered the race, Biden “was behind by a significant number, not just at the national popular vote, but in those … battleground states. You can see almost six points in a state like Georgia and Nevada.“Now, just in the time that Harris has been in the race, you have seen those numbers move pretty significantly toward Harris, four- or five-point shifts in those battleground states, which is mirroring what we’re seeing in the national poll as well.“It hasn’t turned those states, though, from ones that favored Trump to ones that now favor Harris. It just means now that the race is no longer as lopsided in Trump’s favor as it was, say, in late July … which is why we’re calling this race a toss-up.”The same day, the Cook Political Report changed its ratings for three Sun belt swing states – Arizona, Georgia and Nevada – from “leans Republican” to “toss-up”.Another analysis site, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, based at the University of Virginia, changed Georgia from leans Republican to toss-up. Looking north, the site changed Minnesota and New Hampshire, states where Trump made gains while Biden was top of the Democratic ticket, from leans Democratic to likely Democratic.Harris’s choice for vice-president, Tim Walz, is governor of Minnesota. Any Walz effect on polling has not yet been felt but some observers expressed surprise that Harris passed over Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, a battleground state.Others argued back. For Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Joel K Goldstein said that though Shapiro and Mark Kelly, the Arizona senator who was also closely considered, were “both from competitive states that were … important pieces of the 306 electoral votes Democrats won in 2020”, in choosing Walz, “Harris demonstrated yet again that vice-presidential selection turns on matters other than the over-hyped criterion of home-state advantage.“Walz also had the most experience (17 and a half years) in traditional vice-presidential feeder positions (senator, governor, member of the House of Representatives, holder of high federal executive office) of her options, which contrasts with the very limited experience (one and a half years) of his Republican counterpart, Ohio senator JD Vance.”Among widely noted individual polls, Harris led for a second week in the Economist/YouGov survey, maintaining a two-point advantage. Reuters/Ipsos found Harris up five points, 42%-37%, up two on the last such survey, taken just after Biden withdrew. Ipsos said it also found in a separate poll Harris leading Trump 42%-40% in the seven battleground states, though it “did not break out results for individual states”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionA national poll from Marquette University in Wisconsin showed Harris up six points, with 53% support among likely voters to 47% for Trump. Harris maintained that lead when other candidates were included. Robert F Kennedy Jr, the leading independent, took 6% support. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, Kennedy’s support had fallen six points to 4% since July.The Marquette poll contained further good news for Harris, pointing to her energizing effect as the campaign heads for the home stretch: an 11-point rise in respondents saying they were very enthusiastic about voting in November.“Enthusiasm has increased substantially among Democrats, with a small increase among Republicans,” the Marquette pollster Charles Franklin wrote. “Republicans had a consistent enthusiasm advantage over Democrats in previous polls, but this has been mostly erased now.”It was not all good news for Harris and Democrats. In a poll released on Thursday, CNBC put Trump up two points and firmly ahead on who voters thought would make them financially better off.Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican pollster who worked on the survey with a Democratic counterpart, said the election was “less now a referendum on Trump than it is a head-to-head competition between the two candidates”.Harris, Roberts said, was “still carrying a lot of water for the [Biden] administration. She has to answer for that and define herself independently … That’s a lot of baggage to carry when you’ve got a compressed time frame against a mature campaign on Trump’s side.” More

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      Harris and Trump agree to debate on ABC in September as race tightens

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      Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will face off for the first time in a televised debate on 10 September, ABC News has confirmed.The event is expected to draw a huge viewership, and could be a make-or-break moment for both candidates in what polls indicate is an extremely close race.“I am looking forward to debating Donald Trump and we have a date of September 10. I hear he’s finally committed to it and I’m looking forward to it,” the vice-president told reporters in Michigan on Thursday.The former president had previously agreed to appear on ABC News to debate Joe Biden, but after the president stepped down from his re-election campaign, Trump suggested he would back out.During a rambling press conference on Thursday, he backtracked, saying he was willing to debate Harris three times in September – on ABC, and on Fox News and NBC.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionABC News confirmed in a statement it will “host qualifying presidential candidates to debate on September 10 on ABC. Vice-President Harris and former President Trump have both confirmed they will attend the ABC debate.”Harris had not committed to further debates on NBC or Fox, but told reporters: “I am happy to have that conversation about an additional debate, or after September 10, for sure.”More than 51 million people tuned in to watch the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden in June. Biden’s faltering performance at the event marked the beginning of the end of his campaign. Over the next month, Trump survived an assassination attempt, Biden stepped down and Harris became the Democratic candidate, launching a campaign that is quickly gaining momentum.Whereas Biden had been trailing Trump in key swing states, Harris has made gains – in some cases leading her rival in polls. An Ipsos poll published on Thursday found Harris ahead of Trump by 42% to 37%, compared to a 22 to 23 July Reuters/Ipsos survey, which showed her up 37% to 34% over Trump.Harris’s swift ascent has left the Trump campaign scrambling and struggling to develop a coherent attack line against her. During his Thursday press conference, which was his first public appearance since Harris named the Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her running mate, Trump repeatedly mispronounced Harris’s name, questioned her racial identity, and made a number of outlandish, false claims about the economy, the Biden administration’s record and his own. More

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      Uncommitted voters respond to Harris-Walz ticket with hope and reservations

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      Leaders of the “uncommitted” campaign spoke with Kamala Harris and her newly announced running mate, the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, before a rally in Detroit on Wednesday to discuss their calls for a ceasefire in Gaza and an arms embargo on Israel.Harris “shared her sympathies and expressed an openness to a meeting with the Uncommitted leaders to discuss an arms embargo”, the organization said in a statement.But a Harris aide said on Thursday that while the vice-president did say she wanted to engage more with members of the Muslim and Palestinian communities about the Israel-Gaza war, she did not agree to discuss an arms embargo, according to Reuters.Phil Gordon, Harris’s national security adviser, also said on Twitter/X that the vice-president did not support an embargo on Israel but “will continue to work to protect civilians in Gaza and to uphold international humanitarian law”. A spokesperson for Harris’s campaign confirmed she does not support an arms embargo on Israel.The uncommitted movement, a protest vote against Joe Biden that started during the presidential primary season to send a message to the Democratic party about the US’s role in the Israel-Gaza conflict, began in Michigan and spread to several states. In Walz’s Minnesota, it captured 20% of the Democratic votes.Harris’s announcement of Walz as her running mate on Tuesday was met with celebration and even hope by many different parts of the Democratic electorate. But those in the uncommitted movement are still weighing their response, and hoping for a presidential campaign that will comprehensively address the mounting death toll in Gaza.“[Walz] is not someone who has been pro-Palestine in any way. That’s really important here. But he is also someone who’s shown a willingness to change on different issues,” said Asma Mohammed, the campaign manager for Vote Uncommitted Minnesota, and one of 35 delegates nationwide representing the uncommitted movement.Walz, a former schoolteacher, has been described by some as a progressive and open-minded candidate, who made school lunches free for children and enshrined reproductive rights such as abortion into law. He said he listened to his then-teenage daughter on gun reform and went from an A rating from the National Rifle Association to an F after championing gun control legislation.On Israel’s war in Gaza, Walz is considered by others, like Mohammed, to be a moderate, and it is not yet clear if that is another issue on which he is willing to change his position. In February, protesters gathered on Walz’s lawn to call on the governor to divest state funds from Israel, which he has not responded to.When he was serving as a congressman representing Minnesota’s first district, Walz traveled to Israel, the West Bank, Syria and Turkey on a diplomatic trip in 2009 and met with the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. He also voted to allocate foreign aid to Israel and condemn a United Nations resolution declaring that Israeli settlements in the West Bank were illegal.But Walz has not been silent, or resistant, when it comes to the uncommitted platform. When addressing the Palestinian supporters who voted uncommitted in March, he told CNN: “The situation in Gaza is intolerable. And I think trying to find a solution, a lasting two-state solution, certainly the president’s move towards humanitarian aid and asking us to get to a ceasefire, that’s what they’re asking to be heard. And that’s what they should be doing.”He continued: “Their message is clear that they think this is an intolerable situation and that we can do more.”Elianne Farhat, a senior adviser for the Uncommitted national campaign and the executive director of Take Action Minnesota, said in a statement on Tuesday: “Governor Walz has demonstrated a remarkable ability to evolve as a public leader, uniting Democrats diverse coalition to achieve significant milestones for Minnesota families of all backgrounds.”Meanwhile, after a private meeting with Netanyahu during the Israeli leader’s visit to Washington in July, Harris also publicly echoed calls for a ceasefire and said she would not be silent about the high number of civilian deaths in Gaza – a move which seemed like a rhetorical departure from Biden.Harris said she told the Israeli prime minister she “will always ensure that Israel is able to defend itself, including from Iran and Iran-backed militias, such as Hamas and Hezbollah”, and added: “Israel has a right to defend itself, and how it does so matters.”Some of the uncommitted delegates and activists are also supporting Walz because they prefer him over Harris’s other top choice for running mate, Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor who took a more hardline stance on pro-Palestine protesters.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“I think the biggest issue there was that [Shapiro] became such a controversial figure that I think Kamala Harris probably saw him as a liability,” Mohammed, 32, said. “And Tim Walz, while, yes, is still supportive of Israel, didn’t have these very public scandals and very public support of Israel in the same way.”Now Mohammed and other uncommitted voters are pushing for representation at the Democratic national convention later this month in Chicago, hoping to be allotted time to speak about the violence committed against Palestinians in Gaza. But many who support the movement will face their November ballot with mixed emotions.Key Muslim groups have found overlap with uncommitted voters in their support for Palestinians, but have more forcefully thrown their weight behind Harris, including the Muslim Civic Coalition and the Black Muslim Leadership Council Fund.Salima Suswell, the founder and chief executive of the Black Muslim Leadership Council Fund, told NBC: “[Harris] has shown more sympathy towards the people of Gaza than both President Biden and former president Donald Trump.”Muslim Americans, like Suswell and Rolla Alaydi, voted overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020, a decision Alaydi said she now regretted and felt guilty about. But when Biden stepped aside and made way for Harris, Alaydi said she had “1% of hope”.“I’m really numb when it comes to the election,” Alaydi added. “I don’t know which direction to go. The only option I see is Harris, but if there’s someone way better tomorrow who says ‘this will end immediately’, I’ll go and vote for that person.”Alaydi, from California, said she was also “torn” in this election because nearly all of her family is in Gaza. Alaydi said she had just received news that her cousin was bombed for the second time by the IDF. One of his legs was amputated earlier. Alaydi’s niece, who has epilepsy, has been going without medication for months. Alaydi also said she had not heard from her brother since November, when he was taken captive by the IDF.“Inshallah, he will survive,” Alaydi, 44, said through tears. She said she can only hope the new administration, whoever it may be, will allow refugees from Gaza, such as her family, to enter the US.She plans on casting a ballot for the Harris-Walz ticket – for now – because she has “no other other option”. More

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      Why Donald Trump won’t make major inroads with Black voters | Musa al-Gharbi

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      Throughout the 2024 cycle, polling has suggested that Republicans are poised to do extraordinarily well with African Americans.Even with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, nearly one out of five black voters say they support Donald Trump. Younger Black voters seem especially open to casting ballots for the Republican party.On its face, this seems like a sea change in Americans’ electoral affinities. The last time Republicans put up numbers anywhere near that level with Black voters was in 1976. And given that Black voters currently make up nearly one-quarter of the Democratic base, a scenario where almost 20% of these constituents defected to the other side would be absolutely devastating for the vice-president’s electoral prospects.The good news for Democrats is that, even if the polls have been genuinely capturing overall Black sentiment in the US, they are unlikely to be accurately predicting the final vote distribution in November.To clarify why polls are unlikely to reflect the eventual vote margins for this particular subset of voters, it might be helpful to look at how things typically shake out for third-party candidates.Elections are decided by voters, not poll respondentsDuring the 2016 electoral cycle, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson consistently hovered around 9% of the vote in polling. As the race tightened in the weeks before the election, voters began defecting to one of the top ticket candidates. However, in the week before ballots were cast, he was still polling at more than 6%. Ultimately, he ended up with just over 3%.In the 2020 cycle, Green party candidate Howie Hawkins polled at 2% of the national vote six weeks before the election. He ultimately secured roughly one-quarter of 1% of ballots.In the current cycle, Robert F Kennedy Jr polled above 10% for most of the race and, at his high point, was more than double that. However, as the race has tightened (we’re less than 90 days out), and after Joe Biden dropped out, Kennedy is now polling around 4%. In the end, he’d probably be lucky to get half that many votes in November.In short: despite most Americans consistently expressing support for alternatives to the Democratic and Republican nominees, third-party candidates consistently underperform at the ballot box relative to their polling – even in cycles (like 2016) where unusually high numbers of voters dislike both major party candidates.One of the primary causes of this gap between polling and outcomes is that contests are ultimately decided by who shows up to vote on election day. And Americans who are disgusted with both major-party nominees often find other things to do on a Tuesday afternoon than standing in line at a polling place to cast a ballot for someone who has little prospect of actually winning. And when these voters do show up at the ballot box, it’s often to hold their nose and vote for whomever they perceive to be the lesser of the two major party evils, in order to deny victory to the candidate they least prefer. And so, in the end, few Americans who express support for third-party candidates in polls actually show up to vote for them. The polls may accurately capture Americans’ preferences for third-party candidates, but they don’t predict well voting behavior with respect to those candidates.A similar tale holds for Black support of Republicans.Although polls this cycle have consistently found that nearly one in five Black Americans are open to voting for Trump, they also show that most Black voters could be easily swayed to vote for someone other than who they’re leaning towards at the moment, most Black voters have much weaker commitments to their current candidate of choice than other Americans, and roughly a third say they will probably not vote at all. This pattern in responses is also reflected in historical voting behavior: Black voters are more likely than most other Americans to sit elections out.Across the board, the Americans who are most likely to show up on election day – highly-educated, relatively affluent, urban and suburban voters – now tend to favor Democrats, even as lower-propensity voters (younger, working class and low-income, and/or less educated Americans, especially those who live in small towns and rural areas) have been shifting to the right.Historically, the dynamic has gone the other way. Democrats benefitted from high turnout and sought to expand access and participation while Republicans aggressively sought to suppress turnout by increasing voting restrictions, purging voter rolls, gerrymandering districts and otherwise undermining the Voting Rights Act. However, as the Democratic party was reoriented around knowledge economy professionals, many other constituencies swung in the other direction. And because there are far more “normie” voters than there are symbolic capitalists, high turnout increasingly came to favor Republicans instead.This matters because Republicans’ polling gains among African Americans are concentrated most heavily among lower-propensity voting blocs (such as younger and less affluent or educated constituents) and, as a consequence, the lower overall electoral turnout is, the more we should expect to see Republicans underperform among black voters relative to the polls.In 2020, the GOP got a bigger share of the black vote than in previous cycles, but this was in part because of record turnout among non-white voters (whereas Democrats overperformed in subsequent special elections that had much lower overall turnout). Unfortunately for Trump, there are signs that African American turnout this cycle may be significantly lower among lower-propensity voters. Consequently, the vote share Republicans ultimately receive in 2024 among black voters may end up being significantly lower than the polling suggests.The bad news for Democrats is that Trump doesn’t necessarily need to get around 20% of the black vote to freeze Kamala out of the White House. If he’s to even marginally exceed his numbers from last cycle, Democrats would be left with a highly precarious path to victory unless they can make up the losses with other constituents in swing states.Both parties have been alienating core constituenciesSince 2010, Democrats had been consistently losing vote share among African Americans in every midterm and general election.And it wasn’t just African American voters who were leaving, but also Hispanic Americans, religious minorities, and less affluent or educated voters. The very populations that Democrats often fancy themselves as representatives of and advocates for. The very constituents that were supposed to ensure Democrats an indefinite electoral majority.These defections were highly consequential: they contributed to enormous congressional wipeouts from 2010 to 2014 and cost Democrats the White House in 2016 (as Black voter attrition helped flip states including Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio, even as Hispanic alienation helped tilt Arizona, Texas and Florida toward the Republicans).Many assumed that with Trump in the White House, minority voters would come flocking back to the Democratic party. Instead, the GOP held their margins with non-white voters in the 2018 midterms. Democratic gains in that election were near-exclusively due to shifts among highly-educated, relatively affluent, urban and suburban white people.In 2020, Black voters in states such as South Carolina helped save Biden’s floundering primary election campaign. In response, the president vowed to appoint a Black woman as his running mate should he win the Democratic nomination. Upon securing the vote, he ultimately settled on Harris.This choice was striking because Harris was not popular with Black voters during the primary. She typically trailed behind not just Biden, but also Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and sometimes other competitors as well – consistently polling about 5% with African Americans.That general sentiment seems to have continued through to the general election. Although Harris’s nomination was historic in virtue of her being potentially the first Black, female and/or Asian vice-president, her appearance on the ticket generated little enthusiasm among any of these voter blocs. Democrats ultimately got a smaller share of the black vote and the Asian vote in 2020 as compared with 2016 (across gender lines). Democrats were able to nonetheless carve out a narrow electoral college win primarily because white men (especially self-identified “moderates” and “independents”) shifted away from Donald Trump in 2020.These patterns continued through the 2022 midterm elections: non-white people, including non-white women, shifted much further towards the GOP than white people (especially white men). And it seems likely that Democrats will see further attrition in 2024, even if it’s less than current polling suggests.Contrary to optimistic narratives that circulated as Obama was ushered into office, it’s actually quite difficult to hold together a coalition that is centered around knowledge economy professionals but attractive to less advantaged Americans as well.With respect to the Democratic party’s current core constituency, although knowledge economy professionals have been straying from the Democrats since the election of Biden, they seem poised to turn out in force for Harris. The record-breaking “White Women: Answer the Call” and “White Dudes for Harris” online events seem like a strong indicator – as does the huge outpouring of support from Wall Street, Silicon Valley and big law. The symbolic professions seem to be 100% coconut-pilled.Black people, on the other hand, seem much less enthusiastic. And should Harris lean heavily into her race or gender in an attempt to rally support – although this might be appealing to (disproportionately white) knowledge economy professionals – it would likely alienate non-white “normie” voters even more (who tend to prefer messages that are less identitarian and more focused on bread and butter issues).The big question for 2024 is whether or not Trump will continue to alienate white people at an equal or greater clip as Democrats are driving away voters of color. The answer will likely determine control of the White House.

      Musa al-Gharbi is a sociologist in the School of Communication and Journalism at Stony Brook University. His book, We Have Never Been Woke: The Cultural Contradictions of a New Elite, is forthcoming with Princeton University Press. He is a Guardian US columnist. More

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      Biden ‘not confident at all’ in peaceful transfer of power if Trump loses race

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      Joe Biden has said he is not confident there will be a peaceful transfer of power after the November presidential election.“If Trump wins, no, I’m not confident at all. I mean, if Trump loses, I’m not confident at all,” the president said in an interview with CBS News that is due to air in full this Sunday.Biden added: “He means what he says, we don’t take him seriously. He means it, all this stuff about ‘if we lose it will be a bloodbath’ … [and] ‘stolen election’, you can’t love your country only when you win.”The TV network posted the excerpt from the interview on Twitter/X.Donald Trump, who is the Republican nominee for president, said in March: “Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s gonna be a bloodbath. That’s going to be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion

      Reuters contributed reporting. More details soon … More

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      US election live updates: Kamala Harris and Tim Walz hit the campaign trail in Pennsylvania

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      Kamala Harris introduced her running mate, Minnesota governor Tim Walz, to supporters at a packed, energetic rally at Temple University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.Harris sought to define Walz foremost as a teacher, veteran and football coach.Walz focused on a unifying, future-focused message, and attacked the Trump-Vance ticket with a focus on reproductive rights and other freedoms.Meanwhile Josh Shapiro, who had been a vice-presidential contender, still made his mark.Read the key takeaways here.Here are some images from the Harris/Walz campaign rally in Philadelphia last night.Kamala Harris introduced her running mate Tim Walz as “the kind of vice-president America deserves” at a raucous rally in Philadelphia on Tuesday that showcased Democratic unity and enthusiasm for the party’s presidential ticket ahead of the November election.Casting their campaign as a “fight for the future”, Harris and Walz were repeatedly interrupted by applause and cheering as they addressed thousands of battleground-state voters wearing bracelets that twinkled red, white and blue at Temple University’s Liacouras Center – a crowd Harris’s team said was its largest to date.“Thank you for bringing back the joy,” a beaming Walz told Harris after she debuted the little-known Minnesota governor as a former social studies teacher, high school football coach and a National Guard veteran.“We’ve got 91 days,” he declared. “My God, that’s easy. We’ll sleep when we’re dead.”Read the full story here. More

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      Tim Walz to join Kamala Harris for the first time on the campaign trial in Philadelphia – live

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      The rally will mark Walz’s first official campaign appearance since Harris selected him as her running mate earlier today, and for Walz will serve as an introduction to the country.“I couldn’t be prouder to be on this ticket, and to help make Kamala Harris the next president of the United States,” he is expected to say, according to the campaign, which shared excerpts from his prepared remarks.The Minnesota governor will share about his upbringing in Butte, Nebraska – a small town of 400 – as well as his experiences as a teacher and an elected official.“I am more optimistic than ever before,” Shapiro said – capturing a truly dizzying vibe shift among Democrats over the past two weeks.In Philadelphia, Shapiro also referenced the city’s history as the birthplace of American independence.“In Independence Hall, just a couple miles from here, nearly two and a half centuries ago,” Shapiro said, the founders declared independence from the British crown. “They came together to declare our independence from a king and we’re not going back to a king,” he said.An riled-up crowd is now chanting “He’s a weirdo” – referencing Tim Walz’s now iconic characterizations of Donald Trump and JD Vance.“Tim Walz, in his beautiful midwestern plainspoken way, he summed up JD Vance the best. He’s a weirdo,” Shapiro said, encouraging the crowd.Earlier, Senator John Fetterman had referenced the same, effectively pithy insult.“This election is about moving our country forward with Vice-President Harris and Governor Walz. Or a couple of really, really, really, really weird dudes,” Fetterman said.” “And look, I gotta tell you, I work with JD Vance … and I’m here to confirm that he is a seriously weird dude.”“Let me tell you about my friend Kamala Harris, someone I’ve been friends with for two decades,” Shapiro said. “She is courtroom tough. She has a big heart and she is battle tested and ready to go.”Shapiro is speaking to a riled-up crowd. “Not going back! Not going back!” the crowd chanted, as he brought up Donald Trump’s record.“It was more chaos, fewer jobs and less freedom,” Shapiro said.“I love you Philly!” Shapiro began. ““I love being your governor. You all fill my heart and I love you so much.”Shapiro was considered a frontrunner for Harris’s running mate, along with Walz.The rally will mark Walz’s first official campaign appearance since Harris selected him as her running mate earlier today, and for Walz will serve as an introduction to the country.“I couldn’t be prouder to be on this ticket, and to help make Kamala Harris the next president of the United States,” he is expected to say, according to the campaign, which shared excerpts from his prepared remarks.The Minnesota governor will share about his upbringing in Butte, Nebraska – a small town of 400 – as well as his experiences as a teacher and an elected official.At the Liacouras Center at Temple University in Philadelphia, crowds are filing in for a packed rally.Sisters Stephanie Ford, 54, and Diane Harris, 59, said they wouldn’t have believed it if someone told them one month ago they’d be at a rally to support the first Black woman to lead a major party’s presidential ticket.Harris – no relation to the vice-president – danced excitedly. She hadn’t seen people this excited to vote since Barack Obama in 2008. “It’s hope and change and newness,” she said. Ford, who runs a coffee shop, said she saw some of her customers in line on the way in.Both said they were hoping Harris picked their governor, Josh Shapiro, to be her running mate. “I was hoping it was him,” Ford said, as her sister nodded. “But now we get to keep him for ourselves.”Neither had heard much about the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, who Harris announced on Tuesday would be her running mate. But they both said they liked what they were learning about him, especially what he’s done to help children in the state.“I trust her judgement,” said Harris. “It was a win-win for us.”Soon, Harris and Walz will appear together at a campaign rally in Philadelphia, which thousands of people are lining up to attend.On Instagram Live, progressive representative Alexandra Ocasio Cortez said that Walz has helped unify Democrats.“It’s really kind of nuts,” she said. “I am trying to think about the last time Senator Manchin and I, respectfully, were on the same side of an issue.”Walz is hardly a leftist. But in Minnesota, progressives who’ve clashed with him on policy issues are nonetheless rooting for him, my colleague Rachel Leingang reported:
      Elianne Farhat, the executive director of TakeAction MN, said she and her organization had disagreed deeply with Walz over the years, but that he was a person who will move and change his position based on feedback. He evolves.
      She and others pointed to his position on guns. Walz is a gun owner and a hunter who previously received endorsements and donations from the National Rifle Association and had an A rating from the group. But he shifted: he gave donations from the group to charity after the mass shooting in Las Vegas in 2017, and he supported an assault weapons ban after the 2018 school shooting in Parkland, Florida. While governor, he has signed bills into law that restrict guns. He now has an F rating from the NRA.
      ‘We’re not electing our saviors. We’re not electing perfect people. We’re electing people who we can make hard decisions with, we can negotiate with, and who are serious about getting things done for people. And Governor Walz has shown that pretty strongly the last couple years as governor of Minnesota,’ Farhat said.
      The Harris campaign said it has raised more than $10m from grassroots supporters since announcing Tim Walz as the vice-president’s running mate.The campaign released a video of Harris calling Walz to ask him to be her running mate.Here is where this eventful day in US politics stands so far:

      The Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris, has selected Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz, the governor of Minnesota, and Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, were reportedly the two finalists in Harris’s search for a running mate.

      Harris and Walz will soon appear at a campaign rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, marking their first joint event since the running mate announcement. After the Philadelphia rally, Harris and Walz are scheduled to appear at a series of events in battleground states across the country in the coming days.

      Harris said she chose Walz because of his “convictions on fighting for middle-class families”. “We are going to build a great partnership,” Harris said on Instagram. “We are going to build a great team. We are going to win this election.”

      Walz thanked Harris for “the honor of a lifetime” by choosing him. “I’m all in,” Walz said on X. “Vice President Harris is showing us the politics of what’s possible. It reminds me a bit of the first day of school. So, let’s get this done, folks!”

      Republicans attacked Walz as extreme, while Democrats praised him as a down-to-earth leader who can achieve change. “Tim Walz is a dangerously liberal extremist, and the Harris-Walz California dream is every American’s nightmare,” the Trump campaign said in a statement. But Nancy Pelosi, the former Democratic House speaker, rejected that characterization. “He’s right down the middle,” Pelosi told MSNBC. “He’s a heartland-of-America Democrat.”

      Meanwhile, Donald Trump will participate in a “major interview” with billionaire and X owner Elon Musk on Monday, the former president announced in a social media post. The announcement comes one week after Trump’s calamitous interview at the annual convention of the National Association of Black Journalists, where he questioned Kamala Harris’s race.
      The blog will have more coming up, so stay tuned.Hello from the Liacouras Center at Temple University in Philadelphia, where Kamala Harris will debut the freshly formed Democratic ticket later this afternoon.The line to enter wrapped around the university for blocks, and supporters braved a downpour and some sticky summer weather to get inside.There was plenty of excitement among the crowd. Spotted on my way in: several students wearing chartreuse-colored “Kamala is Brat” shirts. Another woman wore a shirt with the play on words “About Madam time” to celebrate the possibility of sending the first woman to the White House.Donald Trump will participate in a “major interview” with billionaire and X owner Elon Musk on Monday, the former president announced in a social media post.“ON MONDAY NIGHT I’LL BE DOING A MAJOR INTERVIEW WITH ELON MUSK — Details to follow!” Trump wrote in a post shared to Truth Social.The announcement comes one week after Trump’s calamitous interview at the annual convention of the National Association of Black Journalists, where he questioned Kamala Harris’ race.The NABJ interview was initially supposed to be an hour long, but it ended after just 34 minutes, as the audience jeered many of Trump’s responses. He will likely face an easier audience with Musk.Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, was having some fun at Republicans’ expense this afternoon, after Kamala Harris announced Tim Walz as her running mate.Some Republicans have accused Harris of passing over Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor, for the running mate spot because of his Jewish faith. If chosen, Shapiro could have become the first Jewish American to serve as vice president.The rightwing commentator Erick Erickson said on X, “No Jews allowed at the top of the Democratic Party.”Schumer, who is the first Jewish American to lead the Senate as majority leader, responded to Erickson by saying: “News to me.”Democrats also note that Harris is married to a Jewish man, Doug Emhoff, who could become the first Jewish spouse of a US president if the party wins the White House in November.Kamala Harris’s campaign has released a new video introducing Tim Walz to the country, as most Americans are not yet familiar with the Minnesota governor.The video, which is narrated by Walz, recounts his upbringing in Nebraska and his decision to join the national guard before he became a teacher and eventually a lawmaker.The video, as well as Walz’s scheduled campaign appearances in battleground states over the coming days, will provide many Americans with their first impression of Harris’s new running mate. A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll showed that only 13% of Americans knew enough about Walz to register an opinion of him.Here is the full transcript of the video:
      Sometimes life is as much about the lessons you learn as the lessons you teach.
      Where I grew up, community was a way of life.
      My high school class was 24 people.
      I was related to half of them.
      I learned to be generous toward my neighbors, compromise without compromising my values, and to work for the common good.
      My dad was in the army, and with his encouragement, I joined the army national guard when I was 17. I served for 24 years.
      I used my GI benefits to go to college and become a public school teacher.
      I coached football and taught social studies for 20 years.
      And I tried to teach my students what small-town Nebraska taught me: respect, compromise and service to country.
      And so when I went into government, that’s what I carried with me. I worked with Republicans to pass an infrastructure bill. Cut taxes for working families. Signed paid leave into law. I codified abortion rights after Roe got overturned.
      Because I go to work for the common good.
      But enough about me.
      Let’s talk about you. Because that’s what this election is about.
      It’s about your future. It’s about your family.
      And Vice-President Harris knows that. She too grew up in a middle-class family. She too goes to work every day, making sure families can not just get by but get ahead.
      We believe in the promise of America. In those values I learned in Nebraska. And we’re ready to fight for them.
      Because as Kamala Harris says: when we fight we win.
      Outside Tim Walz’s residence in St Paul, TV cameras lined the street, with reporters doing live shots to explain how their governor had been tapped as Kamala Harris’s running mate.Earlier in the morning, some supporters gathered to send off Walz with cheers as a black SUV whisked him off to the vice-presidential campaign trail, the local CBS outlet reported.Midday, people on their morning walks and bike rides slowed down, trying to figure out what was happening that required so many cameras. Some took photos of the house, with grins on their faces. A car drove by, honking excitedly at the people gathered.Terryann Nash, who lives across the street from the residence, said she saw security details increasing in recent weeks and wondered what was going on. The residence Walz is staying at is not the state’s governor’s mansion, which is under construction, but a mansion that once housed the University of Minnesota’s president.Nash, a teacher, was excited to see a fellow teacher on the ticket. “Even as a governor, he’s always come back to the schools. He’s always been in touch with the teachers. I feel like we’ve got a well-represented voice and a very good heart to send us off,” she said.Tim Walz won plaudits from fellow Democrats for championing a new and surprisingly effective attack line against Republicans: they’re “just weird”.“There’s something wrong with people when they talk about freedom: freedom to be in your bedroom, freedom to be in your exam room, freedom to tell your kids what they can read,” Walz said recently on MSNBC. “That stuff is weird. They come across weird. They seem obsessed with this.”Speaking at a Harris campaign event before he was named as her running mate, Walz told supporters, “The fascists depend on fear. The fascists depend on us going back. But we’re not afraid of weird people. We’re a little bit creeped out, but we’re not afraid.”Other prominent Democrats, including Harris, have now embraced the attack line. Watch this video showing the many examples of Walz’s “weird” strategy: More