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‘The world is watching’: 1968 protests set stage for Democratic convention
by Evelyn Reynolds 17 August 2024, 12:00
Sean Wilentz was in the convention hall when someone handed out copies of a news wire report. “I remember the first line,” he says. “It said, ‘The lid blew off of this convention city tonight.’” The article went on to describe chaos and bloodshed in Chicago as police clashed with protesters against the Vietnam war.Just 17 at the time, Wilentz and a couple of friends raced to the scene in downtown Chicago. “It was horrible. The cops were angry and didn’t like the kids and the kids were angry and didn’t like the cops. I saw a motorcycle cop go on a sidewalk and pin a kid against the wall. I was very scared.”View image in fullscreenMore than half a century has passed since a police riot scarred the Democratic national convention of 1968. On Monday Democrats return to Chicago with a spring in their step as they prepare to anoint Kamala Harris their presidential candidate. Yet some comparisons with the events of 56 years ago are irresistible.Just as in 1968, a would-be assassin has sought to change the course of political history. Just as in 1968, an incumbent president has stepped aside and a vice-president will gain the Democratic nomination without winning a single primary vote. And just as in 1968, protesters will gather to demonstrate their anger over US involvement in an unpopular war.Democrats are praying that the similarities end there. When the teargas cleared in Chicago, Hubert Humphrey, a self-styled “happy warrior”, emerged as the standard-bearer of a bitterly divided party. He went on to lose the election to Richard Nixon who, like fellow Republican Donald Trump, pushed a “law and order” message to exploit white voters’ fears and prejudices.View image in fullscreenMuch has changed since Trump secured the Republican nomination at the party’s own convention in Milwaukee last month. With 81-year-old Joe Biden fading in opinion polls, the Democratic campaign had come to resemble a death march. But his decision to quit the race and throw his weight behind Harris triggered an explosion of relief, self-belief and surging enthusiasm.Next week’s Democratic convention will put the capstone on the dramatic turnaround. Harris and running mate Tim Walz, who have been drawing huge crowds at rallies and millions of dollars in donations, will be formally nominated and deliver the most important speeches of their careers – probably resulting in a further polling bump.But the carefully stage-managed event – also featuring Biden, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and A-list celebrities – could yet go off script. Thousands of pro-Palestinian protesters are expected to gather outside to demand that the US end military aid to Israel amid the ongoing war in Gaza, where the death toll has surpassed 40,000, according to the healthy ministry there.The March on the DNC, a coalition of more than 200 organisations from all over the US, plans to hold demonstrations on Monday and Thursday, the days when Biden and Harris are due to speak. Its website brands the president “Genocide Joe Biden” and warns: “Democratic party leadership switching out their presidential nominee does not wash the blood of over 50,000 Palestinians off their hands.”Although a sprawling security plan has been drawn up by federal, state and city governments, some activists have vowed a replay of 1968, when years of unrest over the American misadventure in Vietnam came to a head in Chicago. Then, as now, students took up the anti-war cause with campus protests, including at Columbia University in New York, where Hamilton Hall was occupied in both 1968 and 2024.View image in fullscreenThere was already political uncertainty after President Lyndon B Johnson closed a speech about the Vietnam war with the stunning announcement that he would not seek another term. Biden has similarly dropped out of the election race, albeit later in the cycle and for very different reasons.America was further shaken by the assassinations of Martin Luther King Jr and Robert Kennedy, who was running for the Democratic nomination, and by cities burning in protest at racial injustice. Last month Trump narrowly survived an attempt on his life at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania but one of his supporters was killed.Wilentz, now 73 and a history professor at Princeton University, recalled: “The thing about Chicago: this is the culmination of a crisis that had been building in American politics for five or six years and it was also feeding off the civil rights movement. There was a real feeling of desperation, that this disaster is going to continue. The politics were very fraught and furious and one was not necessarily thinking strategically.”In late August more than 10,000 protesters opposing the Vietnam war and assorted other causes held huge demonstrations near the convention site. Some threw red paint to simulate blood and occupied major roads to block traffic. The official response was brutal with widespread use of teargas, beatings and arrests by the police and national guard. The carnage was broadcast live on television and demonstrators chanted: “The whole world is watching.”View image in fullscreenEyewitness Taylor Pensoneau, 83, who was reporting for the St Louis Post-Dispatch newspaper, recalled: “The protesters were doing a lot to taunt the Chicago police. They were throwing bottles and stones at the police and they were calling them pigs and confronting them. It was a very incendiary situation.“It seemed inevitable that at some point the Chicago police were going to respond and eventually they did in a very forceful manner, swinging billy clubs and pushing protesters to the ground. A lot of people were getting hurt. It was a riot.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThere was even mayhem inside the convention hall, including assaults on journalists. Supporters of anti-war candidates such as senator Eugene McCarthy clashed with supporters of Humphrey, who won the nomination with the backing of party elites and dared not defy Johnson over the war until much later.At first glance Humphrey appears to have little in common with Harris. But there is tonal echo. Humphrey had “The Happy Warrior” painted on his plane and, when first declaring his candidacy, remarked: “Here we are the way politics ought to be in America, the politics of happiness, politics of purpose, politics of joy.” Terms such as “happy warriors” and “politics of joy” have been widely applied to Harris and Walz.Such an upbeat approach could come over as tone deaf as children are dying in Gaza, according to Norman Solomon, national director of the progressive group RootsAction. He said: “I was 17 in 1968 and I remember it was like, what are you talking about, the politics of joy? Maybe you’re happy but the administration that you’re part of continues to massacre people on a large scale in Vietnam.“Harris is on an upswing with Walz and in terms of defeating Trump that’s good but the disconnect with people in Dearborn [home of the biggest Arab American community] or people who will be in the streets in Chicago next week is pretty severe. She’s talking politics of joy and Congress is voting the billions more for weapons. The US keeps helping to kill people in Gaza and she dispatches her national security adviser to say she’s absolutely against an arms embargo. It’s almost split screen.”Harris’s acceptance speech on Thursday night will be watched closely for clues that, unlike Humphrey at the convention, she is ready to put some clear daylight between herself and Biden, an ardent Zionist, on the Gaza issue. That could be crucial in persuading Arab American, Muslim and young voters to give her the benefit of the doubt.James Zogby, the founder and president of the Arab American Institute in Washington, said: “She was the first one to call for a ceasefire. She was the first one to call for Palestinian self-determination. She was the first one to use very powerful language about the devastation of Gaza and the suffering of the people there.“She’s been about as clear as you could be that there is a difference in her outlook on this. I’m not going to let you in on all of them but there are indications we’re getting that they do want to turn corners here. They’ve opened a door already in terms of language and policy will follow.”Zogby also doubts that there will be any repeat of the mayhem inside the 1968 convention hall. Of more than 4,000 delegates, only 30 are “uncommitted”, representing a grassroots voter coalition that has opposed Biden’s Gaza policy. This is “nowhere near what you would require to have any kind of floor demonstration”, he said.View image in fullscreen“If there’s a disruption, it would be a handful of people in sea of other delegates. It would not be 1968. Outside, on the other hand, is a different story because, even though many of the groups demonstrating intend to keep it civil and constructive, anytime you get something that large, it develops a dynamic all of its own.”The parallels with 1968 are undoubtedly striking. But the difference may prove more important. The Vietnam war and its draft affected far more Americans than the current conflict in Gaza. Few analysts believe that Gaza will have as much electoral significance, except perhaps in Michigan. Nixon would become embroiled in the Watergate scandal but did not threaten democracy as Trump does.Wilentz commented: “1968 was a very different time than anything I’ve ever seen in this country. There’s certain similarities between this year and that year in the sense that you have events happening very quickly and they seem traumatic. But nothing in comparison to what 68 felt like.” More
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How the siege of Gaza split America: ‘a battle for the political system’s soul’
by Evelyn Reynolds 17 August 2024, 10:00
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View image in fullscreenRarely has a head of state received a more hostile welcome than that which met the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, when he arrived in Washington DC to speak before a joint session of Congress last month. While no senior US officials turned up to greet him on the tarmac, thousands of demonstrators marched in protest of his speech, including 200 from the group Jewish Voice for Peace who were arrested during an occupation on Capitol Hill, and others who burned him in effigy and replaced the American flag flying in front of Union Station with a Palestinian flag.Perhaps more telling was the decision of roughly half of congressional Democrats to boycott the address altogether. “A dozen years ago, that would have been unthinkable,” noted Peter Frey, board chair of J Street, a Jewish lobbying group that supports Israeli security as well as a Palestinian state. One lawmaker who did attend, the representative Rashida Tlaib, wore a keffiyeh and held a sign calling Netanyahu a “war criminal” who was “guilty of genocide”. Meanwhile, a number of labor unions, including the National Education Association, the Service Employees International Union and United Auto Workers sent a letter to Joe Biden calling for an end to US support for Israel’s war in Gaza.Polling shows that some 70% of Democrats and 35% of Republicans favor conditions on military aid to Israel, but with each day, the disconnect between what voters want and what the Biden administration does seems to widen. One consequence is that citizens’ already flagging trust in their government is steadily eroded. “It’s a battle for the soul of the political system on this issue,” Frey said. “And it’s playing out in real time in front of us. It is not healthy. It’s not good for Israel.” And to the extent that Americans care about foreign policy, he added, “I think it does in the long run maybe undermine confidence in the political system.”Eroding consensusThat disconnect will be on display next week at the Democratic national convention, where supporters of Palestinian human rights plan to pressure the party to include the call for an immediate ceasefire and a weapons embargo of Israel as planks of its platform. “This is not just a policy stance, it’s a moral imperative,” said Layla Elabed, an activist with the Uncommitted National Movement (who happens to be Tlaib’s sister), on a recent organizing call.It is a tall order, but for many in the movement, it seems within reach. Months before Biden’s disastrous debate performance; before the drumbeat of marquee defections; before the flash of Nancy Pelosi’s shank on Morning Joe, the candidacy suffered its first major blow courtesy of these same activists. By persuading more than 100,000 Michigan Democrats to cast their primary ballots for “uncommitted”, rather than back the man who they believed was enabling a genocide, they had sent the Democratic establishment a forceful message: one of the most critical swing states in the 2024 election was at risk.Eventually, more than 700,000 primary voters in 23 states would vote the same way – a signal that support for Israel’s actions in Gaza could become a political liability for centrist Democrats, as it recently did for their counterparts in France and the UK. Due to its strong showing, the group won 30 delegates to the DNC.The protest vote provided another piece of evidence that, at least among liberals, a longstanding affinity for Israel was quickly eroding, one more casualty of a brutal 10-month conflict that shows no sign of ending and may well escalate into a full-on regional war. In addition to killing more than 40,000 Palestinians (and probably many more indirectly), displacing millions and destroying more than half the area’s buildings, the Gaza war appears to have damaged, perhaps irreparably, Israel’s “special relationship” with its most important champion.Meanwhile, Biden’s stubborn support for the onslaught, despite its apparent failure to meet its stated goals of destroying Hamas and freeing the hostages, has done more than threaten the Democratic coalition. It has stoked a sharp generational divide, with younger Americans nearly twice as likely to express support for the Palestinian cause as their parents – fomenting wrenching generational disagreements, especially within Jewish families. It has riven campuses, leading venerable institutions supposedly dedicated to free inquiry and critical thinking to respond with police violence to the mostly peaceful activism of their own students. And perhaps most alarmingly, it has given many Americans cause to doubt our nation’s commitment to free speech, human rights and the rule of law – to wonder, in short, just what America stands for.‘The hypocrisy is ripe’Among those most unsettled by the new dynamic are left-leaning Jewish students, many of whom maintain a broad devotion to Israel even as they decry its current policies. Now, many of them find themselves increasingly isolated from longtime political allies. While troubled by the strident rhetoric heard at some protests they otherwise support, they are nonetheless distressed by the efforts of pro-Israel advocacy groups, establishment politicians and college administrators to paint all anti-war demonstrations as antisemitic.“I identify as a progressive,” said Lauren Haines, a senior at the University of Michigan and the former president of J Street U, the group’s campus wing. “I look at pictures and hear about Gaza every single day, like it keeps me up at night, just knowing that I could be complicit because my tax dollars are going to this. But I’ve been very frustrated by some of the left’s tactics. There’s this false dichotomy of ‘you’re with us or against us.’”She continued: “I stand with the Palestinian people, and I think you can absolutely fight for justice for them without engaging in this really polarizing and harmful discourse, like saying all Zionists are evil or attacking Jewish institutions for having ties to Israel.”That said, Haines decries the violent repression of pro-Palestine demonstrations. “The sheer amount of police violence on college campuses has been absolutely disgusting,” Haines said, “even if I disagree with protesters on some things.”The novelist Omar El Akkad has been similarly troubled by the violent repression of demonstrations. “When I looked at these campus protests, I saw some of the most diverse coalitions of human beings that I’ve seen in any context within the United States,” he noted. “And the response from university administrators and a slew of politicians seemed to run against every central principle of what makes the United States sometimes feel like an exceptional society.”While conservatives seem untroubled by the devastation in Gaza (Trump has advised Israel to “finish it up”), many Americans remain deeply attached to a national self-conception as a beacon of freedom and human dignity. What so troubles a younger generation is not only US support for the Gaza offensive but what it says about the country’s role in the world, said Michael Barnett, a professor of international affairs and political science at George Washington University. “It’s the idea of an immoral US foreign policy – that there’s just something that is too cutthroat, too wrong, too unethical,” he said. Denouncing Russian aggression in Ukraine while giving Israel an apparent blank check to obliterate Palestine simply doesn’t compute. “The hypocrisy is ripe,” Barnett explained, “and they’re picking up on it.”In February, Akkad, who is best known for the 2017 novel American War, will publish a nonfiction book about widespread indifference to the horrors of Gaza, entitled One Day Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This. Growing up in Egypt and Qatar, he said, he admired the United States as “a place where there were these underlying principles of equal justice and fairness under the law and all that”. But now, “as I watch virtually every leader of every major superpower in the west kind of shrug off a genocide, and even using the term becomes this matter of polite debate”, he said, he’s not so sure.The longer the war goes on, it seems, the more this anguish over America’s complicity is likely to grow. “I think in some ways everyone is feeling this,” Frey said, “whether you’re a politician or you’re just a layperson, whether you’re Jewish or non-Jewish. It is an extremely uncomfortable situation, and it continues because the war unfortunately is continuing, and the stories that are coming out just keep perpetuating it.”Whether a possible Kamala Harris administration would change course is uncertain. Some observers were cheered by Harris’s reportedly tough conversation with Netanyahu and her decision to select Tim Walz over Josh Shapiro, whose support for Israel and denunciation of antiwar protesters outraged progressives.Then again, there’s room for skepticism that the vice-president would significantly alter US policy. After reports circulated that she had agreed to meet with uncommitted delegates to discuss an arms embargo, her national security adviser, Phil Gordon, clarified her position. The vice-president, he wrote, “will always ensure Israel is able to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups. She does not support an arms embargo on Israel. She will continue to work to protect civilians in Gaza and to uphold international humanitarian law.”As Israel continues its assault, decimating Gaza and killing civilians and militants alike with US supplied weapons, such equivocations strike many Americans as deeply hollow. With thousands of anti-war protesters descending on Chicago to protest against the DNC, and dozens of uncommitted delegates making their case inside the hall, the question of America’s role in what many experts have called a genocide will figure prominently at the convention. Harris’s answer will have far-reaching implications – not only for her candidacy, the prospect of peace in the Middle East, and the beleaguered civilians rushing from one “safe zone” to the next as bombs explode around them, but for the US’s global standing and its citizens’ faith in its reputation as a force for good in the world. More
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Trump reportedly considers endorsing expanded child tax credit after Harris unveils economic plan – live
by Evelyn Reynolds 16 August 2024, 21:28
Trump is considering endorsing an expanded $5,000 child tax credit for parents of all income levels, an official at his campaign told Semafor.“President Trump will consider a significant expansion of the child tax credit that applies to American families,” a Trump campaign official told Semafor. “President Trump respects and listens to his running mate Senator Vance.”The news comes just hours after Harris announced her own plan for a $6,000 child tax credit, and days after Vance proposed a $5,000 child tax credit during a CBS News interview.Cornel West will not appear on Michigan’s presidential ballot this fall, election officials told the Washington Post today. The independent presidential candidate’s ballot access was denied over notary issues, the state’s director of elections said in a letter.“The charges regarding procedural errors in our filings, such as notarization specifics, are trivial technicalities being weaponized to distract from substantive policy debates,” West’s adviser Edwin DeJesus said in a statement to the Post. “We are confident that these accusations will be seen for what they are – frivolous and unfounded attempts to stifle opposition and debate.”West’s campaign says it will appeal the decision, but must do so in five days as it did not previously respond to a notification from election officials in July.Engaging with young voters. Very mindful. Very demure. Very cutesy. Just hours after VP hopeful Tim Walz joined TikTok, the White House is joining in on attempts to connect with gen-Z voters by playing along with the latest meme sweeping social platforms.For more on the origins of the meme, read Alaina Demopoulos’s postmortem of brat summer:The White House has released a new statement from Joe Biden on the Middle East.In it, Biden states: “Earlier today, I received an update from my negotiating team on the ground in Doha and directed them to put forward the comprehensive bridging proposal presented today, which offers the basis for coming to a final agreement on a ceasefire and hostage release deal. I spoke separately with Amir Sheikh Tamim and President Sisi to review the significant progress made in Doha over the past two days of talks, and they expressed the strong support of Qatar and Egypt for the US proposal as co-mediators in this process. Our teams will remain on the ground to continue technical work over the coming days, and senior officials will convene again in Cairo before the end of the week. They will report to me regularly. I am sending Secretary Blinken to Israel to reaffirm my iron-clad support for Israel’s security, continue our intensive efforts to conclude this agreement and to underscore that with the comprehensive ceasefire and hostage release deal now in sight, no one in the region should take actions to undermine this process.”For more on the status of ceasefire negotiations, read Jason Burke’s and Bethan McKernan’s reporting:For those following along, JD Vance has landed in Cincinnati after an earlier midair emergency forced his plane to return to the Milwaukee airport.According to the New York Times, which had a reporter onboard the flight, the plane sat on the Milwaukee tarmac for about an hour before continuing on its way to Cincinnati.In an apparent response to Kamala Harris’s speech in North Carolina today, Trump has taken to Truth Social.The former president writes: “Kamala Harris wants to raise your taxes and make you pay for free healthcare and free housing in luxury hotels for her millions of illegal aliens. Meanwhile, our Veterans are sleeping on the streets and Kamala’s running mate, Weirdo Tim Walz, voted against my VA Mission Act that made healthcare more affordable and accessible for our Nation’s Heroes! Kamala and Walz will put Criminals, Terrorists, and Illegal Aliens FIRST. I will always put law-abiding, hardworking, patriotic AMERICANS First!”For more on the steps Harris proposed to fight child poverty, housing instability and inflation, check out George Chidi’s report:In lighter news, you may have seen the author Malcolm Harris’s tweet earlier this week that he accidentally acquired a Project 2025 swag bag.The Washington Post caught up with the Marxist journalist, who apparently was visited by police after posting on X:After seeing Harris’s tweets, a woman who describes herself on LinkedIn as a Project 2025 staffer called the police and filed a complaint for theft, according to a police report obtained by the Post.The cliff notes? Harris ultimately returned the duffle bag to the Heritage Foundation himself.Tim Walz has joined TikTok, or as he prefers to say, “TimTok”. The Minnesota governor’s first post features his dog Scout at a dog park along the banks of the Mississippi.In under a month, the Harris-Walz campagin has reignited gen-Z enthusiasm for the 2024 election, largely through memes and videos shared on TikTok, Instagram and other social platforms. Scout featured prominently in one post that began circulating in gen Z and millennial circles as Harris considered VP candidates earlier this month:Although Joe Biden signed a bill that would ban TikTok, or force its Chinese owners to sell it, Democrats have flocked to the app in recent months to drum up support from younger voters.Trump is considering endorsing an expanded $5,000 child tax credit for parents of all income levels, an official at his campaign told Semafor.“President Trump will consider a significant expansion of the child tax credit that applies to American families,” a Trump campaign official told Semafor. “President Trump respects and listens to his running mate Senator Vance.”The news comes just hours after Harris announced her own plan for a $6,000 child tax credit, and days after Vance proposed a $5,000 child tax credit during a CBS News interview.Another plank of Kamala Harris’s economic platform was a promise to lower housing costs by expanding the housing supply.Here’s the moment where she announced it, in her just-concluded speech in Raleigh, North Carolina:Joe Biden had sought to increase the supply of affordable housing with his ill-fated Build Back Better plan, but that did not make it through Congress.Last month, shortly before he dropped out of the presidential race, the president proposed capping annual rent increases for some landlords at 5%. But, as is the case with much of his agenda, Congress would need to pass a new law to make that happen, and the Republicans controlling the House have shown no interest in doing so.A charter plane carrying JD Vance, dubbed Trump Force Two, made an emergency landing in Milwaukee after a malfunction with its door, CNN reports. Then plane then took back off and continued its flight:Vance earlier in the day held a campaign event at a police union office in the city.The GOP is teeing up their counterattack to Kamala Harris’s economic proposals.Earlier this afternoon, Donald Trump’s campaign announced that JD Vance will deliver remarks on the economy on Monday in Philadelphia, where he’ll undoubtedly criticize the vice-president. And on X this afternoon, Republican congressman Mike Collins accused Harris of, essentially, trying to “buy votes”:As she wrapped up her speech, Kamala Harris debuted a proposal to bring back a tax credit that was credited with dramatically reducing child poverty in the single year it was in effect, and expanding it further.The expanded child tax credit cut poverty for children by about half in 2021, but expired the following year, when negotiations over renewing it broke down. Harris told voters that she would bring back the credit, and make it even more generous:
As President, I’ll not only restore that tax cut, but expand it. We will provide $6,000 in tax relief to families during the first year of a child’s life. Now, think what that means. Think what that means. That is a vital, vital year of critical development of a child, and the cost can really add up, especially for young parents who need to buy diapers and clothes and a car seat and so much else.
She argued that she could reduce the federal budget deficit while implementing this plan, though did not quite say how, instead hitting Donald Trump over his policies towards lowering taxes:
And we will do this while reducing the deficit. Compare my plan with what Donald Trump intends to do, he plans to give billionaires massive tax cuts year after year, and he plans to cut corporate taxes by over a trillion dollars, even as they pull in record profits. And that’s on top of the $2tn tax cut he already signed into law when he was president, which, by the way, overwhelmingly, overwhelmingly went to the wealthiest Americans and corporations and exploded the national deficit.
You know, I think that if you want to know who someone cares about, look who they fight for.
And then Harris came at Donald Trump with a tried-and-true attack used by Democrats everywhere, by warning that he would repeal the Affordable Care Act.There’s lots to say about the law, which polling from health policy research firm KFF indicates is generally popular, but which most Republicans continue to oppose. But here’s one thing to keep in mind: it was first passed in 2010, which means there are lots of voters out there who never experienced what the American health insurance system was like before its changes took effect.Harris warned the crowd that repealing the law “would take us back to a time when insurance companies could deny people with pre-existing conditions”, she said, adding that 45 million Americans rely on the law for health coverage.At that point, the crowd began chanting, “We’re not going back!”Donald Trump has made levying new tariffs on foreign imports a key part of his platform, but Kamala Harris is warning the crowd in North Carolina that the idea amounts to “a national sales tax” on everyday goods.“He wants to impose what is, in effect, a national sales tax on everyday products and basic necessities that we import from other countries. That will devastate Americans. It will mean higher prices on just about every one of your daily needs. A Trump tax on gas, a Trump tax on food, a Trump tax on clothing, a Trump tax on over-the-counter medication. And, you know, economists have done the math. Donald Trump’s plan would cost a typical family $3,900 a year,” the vice-president said.“At this moment when everyday prices are too high, he will make them even higher.” More
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Kamala Harris has made a dream start. But it’s too early to count out Donald Trump | Jonathan Freedland
by Evelyn Reynolds 16 August 2024, 16:00
Everything is going right for her and wrong for him. Kamala Harris has the encouraging poll numbers and, more precious still, the momentum. Donald Trump has the serial errors, the maudlin introspection and wobbling campaign team. In less than three weeks, the Democrats have pulled off one of the most extraordinary turnarounds in US political history, replacing a candidate who was shuffling towards near-certain defeat with one apparently soaring towards possible victory. And yet, even as Harris speaks of bringing the joy, contained within is a lurking danger – a peril that should be all too familiar.The sources of joy are not mysterious. Democrats are heading to Chicago for a convention that will feel like a party but was set to be a wake. Before 21 July, they were tied to Joe Biden, a man whose presidency has proved far more consequential than most predicted but who was on course to lose and lose badly in November. His passing of the baton to his number two has gone better than anyone had any right to expect.All but seamlessly, the campaign has switched over – equivalent to rebuilding a plane in mid-air, say seasoned election hands – and the candidate herself has taken to the task with unexpected ease. Twenty years younger and a whole lot more vigorous than her opponent, she has turned what had been Trump’s most potent weapon against Biden – age – against Trump himself. He is now the candidate of the past, she the face of the future. Never mind that Harris is a senior member of the present administration, she has shaken off the burden of incumbency – currently a negative in most democracies across the world – and cast herself as the turn-the-page option, aided by a powerful slogan: “We’re not going back.”The evidence that it’s working is in the headline poll numbers, which show her edging ahead in the very battleground states where Biden had been trailing. Almost overnight, she is winning back the voters who propelled Biden to victory in 2020 but were drifting away from him in 2024: young, Black and Hispanic Americans. Drawing big crowds, inspiring a thousand social-media memes, she is generating something Democrats have not seen since the first Barack Obama campaign of 2008: excitement.All this is having an equal and opposite effect on Trump. The better her numbers or crowds get, the more gloomy and rattled he becomes, consoling himself with the delusion that photos of Harris’s massive audiences are AI fakes. The New Yorker’s Susan Glasser depicts Trump as bereft, missing Biden as he pines for the return of the man he knew how to run against. That contest was simple: it was strong v weak, with Biden’s age doing the work.But now Trump faces Harris, and he can’t quite work out how to take her on. He can’t fix on a nickname, he can’t settle on a target. His team wants him to run on immigration and inflation – both Democratic vulnerabilities – but he keeps returning to the terrain he knows best: culture wars and race baiting. Just as he once falsely claimed that Obama was not born in the US, Trump initially offered his theory that only late in life did Harris happen “to turn Black”. He also regularly describes the vice-president as a “low IQ individual”, a phrase he has long applied to Black female politicians. His base may like this talk, but it repels everyone else.An illustration of the unsettling effect Harris is having on Trump came in the mutual back-scratch he conducted with X magnate Elon Musk this week. “She looks like the most beautiful actress ever to live,” Trump said about a drawing of Harris on the cover of Time magazine. “She looked very much like our great first lady, Melania,” he added, referring to his wife. Along with any listener to that exchange, Trump doesn’t know where to put himself.Because he is knocked off balance, he keeps stumbling. The Musk encounter was a case in point. After the embarrassment of a tech breakdown that led to a start delayed by 40-plus minutes, Trump rambled for two hours, straying into baffling tangents and frankly weird claims. One example: “global warming” is no threat, because rising sea levels mean “more oceanfront property”. (The real danger, he said, is the warmth of nuclear weapons.) What’s more, Trump seemed to speak with a heavy lisp throughout. None of this might matter much in itself, but it shows that Trump is beginning to get some of the same scrutiny of his cognitive and physical capacities that drove Biden to step aside. Put simply, age is now his problem.So this race is going exactly the way Harris would want it to go. Trump is lashing out at allies and, always a sign of a troubled campaign, shaking up his team. He is saddled with a running mate whose back catalogue would make a Gilead commander blush, while he paints an ever-darkening picture of a US in decline, a nation riddled with crime and overrun by scary invaders. All the while, she is beaming about a brighter tomorrow. As the Republican sage Mike Murphy puts it, “He’s doing Voldemort and she’s doing Ted Lasso.”Where, then, is the danger? First, the polling is not quite as rosy as Democrats want it to be. Dig further into the numbers and you see that, despite everything, Donald Trump is more popular now than he was at this same, mid-August point in either 2020 or 2016. His approval rating currently stands at 44%. In August 2016, a paltry 33% of Americans had a positive view of him – but he went on to win.What’s more, in each of the three crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, Harris is ahead by only four points, according to the latest survey. That’s welcome progress, to be sure, but it’s not enough when you recall that Trump put on nine points between August and November in those states in 2016 and closed the gap to a photo-finish in 2020.Harris may be more charismatic than either of the Democratic standard-bearers in those earlier contests, but she has vulnerabilities of her own. She is clearly a figure of the “coastal elites”: a wealthy Californian, she has no equivalent of the Scranton Joe persona available to Biden. Both she and her running mate, the Minnesota governor Tim Walz, have a history of progressive positions that anyone with a memory knows Republicans can twist into a caricature of leftwing radicalism. True, Walz’s vibe is cuddly midwestern dad – and there’s good evidence that, these days, a politician’s vibe matters more than their record – but there’s still a job to do. It’s almost a universal truth of contemporary politics that any party not of the right has to go much further than it would like to reassure voters in the centre. (Just ask Keir Starmer.) By that measure, the Democratic nominee may still have some distance to travel.Above all, and paradoxically, it’s Harris’s astonishing early success that contains risk. It has encouraged Democrats to believe that, in ditching Biden, the hard work has already been done, that the menace of a second Trump presidency has been averted. But this remains a perilously close contest in a sharply divided nation. As we have seen twice in recent years, Republicans enjoy a structural advantage in the electoral college that means that a Democrat can win the popular vote by a resounding margin – and still lose.So, yes, Harris has made a dream start. Trump is flailing. But it is far, far too early to celebrate. In the autumn, Americans will take their traditional second look at the two candidates. There will be TV debates and the hard yards of getting voters not to share memes on TikTok but off the couch and to the polling booth. This race is far from over – and if the last, turbulent decade has taught us anything, it’s that it is always too soon to count out Donald Trump.
Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist More
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Harris has two paths to victory – Rust belt or Sun belt, polling analysts say
by Evelyn Reynolds 16 August 2024, 15:49
Kamala Harris’s surge in popularity since replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee has opened up a surprise second path to victory in November, according to a fresh analysis of recent voter surveys.An aggregate of polls modelled by the Washington Post shows that the US vice-president has become newly competitive in four southern Sun belt states that were previously leaning heavily towards Donald Trump, the Republican nominee and former president.If the trend holds, it means Harris could eke out an electoral college victory either by winning those states – Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina – or, alternatively, by capturing three swing states in the midwestern Rust belt, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.Trump, by contrast, would need to capture both groups of states to earn the 270 electoral college votes necessary to secure victory, according to the model.The opening up of a potential second front in Harris’s pathway to victory may be the biggest boon yet from her elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket in place of Biden, whose only path to staying in office appeared to hinge on winning the three Rust belt states.Harris has gained an average of two percentage points nationally, and 2.1% in seven battleground states, since replacing Biden, who pulled out of the race on 21 July after weeks of intense pressure over a bad debate performance the previous month.The transformation in the party’s chances of retaining the White House amounts to a “reset” of the election race and might even make Harris a “slight favourite”, according to the analysis. It is largely due to renewed impetus in key swing states under the candidacy of Harris and Tim Walz, the Minnesota governor who she chose as her running mate.The outcome of US presidential elections is determined not by the popular vote, but by which candidate wins a majority of 538 electoral college votes, which are allotted state by state.Polls show many things, but in aggregate they appear to suggest that Harris now leads in the Rust belt states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and has closed the gap in another, Michigan, to within one point of Trump, the former president and Republican nominee. Biden won all three states, albeit by narrow margins, in 2020.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBut she has also significantly improved on Biden’s post-debate standing – when the president’s poll position evaporated badly in all key states and even began to deteriorate in states previously considered safe – in three Sun belt states, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, plus North Carolina, where she has pulled close enough to Trump to be within the polls’ margin of error.Biden won the first of those three states, again by narrow margins, in 2020 but lost North Carolina by less than two percentage points. Amid Harris’s recent surge, Democratic strategists have started to envision carrying the state, despite the party only having won it once in presidential elections since 1980.The uptick in support makes her competitive in more states than Trump that would enable her to reach the required 270 electoral college votes.However, Harris still trails Trump in the final tally, if the polls are accurate and the election were held now.Another boon to Harris is a Washington Post/Ipsos poll that shows her choice of Walz as running mate playing better with voters than Trump’s selection of JD Vance, who has seemed to hit trouble with female voters because of his hardline anti-abortion views and track record of misogynistic comments about childless women.The survey showed 39% of voters having a favourable view of Walz – who has been targeted by Republicans because of his left-leaning policies as Minnesota governor – and 30% unfavourable, giving him a positive rating of 9%. Vance, on the other hand, recorded a 32% favourable rating against 42% who saw him unfavourably, a negative rating that chimes with other polls, some of which have measured him as the most unpopular vice-presidential pick in history.Reflecting her campaign’s bullishness about its prospects in the state as it approaches next week’s Democratic national convention, Harris was due to make a keynote economic speech in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Friday where she was expected to set out policies on price gouging, rising food prices and high housing costs. All are areas that Republicans see as potential vulnerabilities for Harris.Vance, a senator for Ohio, was due to speak in the Wisconsin city of Milwaukee, following appearances in Pennsylvania and Michigan in recent days, mirroring the Trump campaign’s recognition of the need to win the states. More
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Trump repeats attacks and falsehoods in free-wheeling press conference at his golf club – live
by Evelyn Reynolds 15 August 2024, 21:49
Donald Trump spoke for more than 45 minutes – repeating many of the signature lies and falsehoods that draw cheers at his rallies – before taking any questions from the press.This is a well-worn tactic for Trump – a way to entice news networks to turn their cameras toward him for what is essentially free press. His press conference earlier this month – his first since Kamala Harris had entered the presidential race – ran on for about an hour and a half, during which Trump rambled about the crowd size at his January 6, 2021, rally and falsely claimed that no one died during the Capitol riot that day. When he finally took questions, he gave confusing and at times incoherent answers.Trump used the same approach to a press conference back when he was president as well. In an April 2020 news analysis by the Guardian’s David Smith – Briefing or rally? Trump shifts to campaign mode as he rails against the media – my colleague details the surreal experience of attending one of Trump’s coronavirus press briefings.
I was among an unlucky 13 reporters sitting in that room on Saturday, along with one standing at the back from Trump’s beloved One America News Network which, having flouted reporters’ agreed physical distancing guidelines, is there at the invitation of the White House.
Laptops on knees, with several seats between us to maintain physical distancing, we were hardly a typical Make America Great Again crowd. But tellingly, while there was no sign of Dr Anthony Fauci’s reassuring presence, the seats to Trump’s right included Mark Meadows, a vocal ally in Congress recently appointed White House chief of staff, and Kayleigh McEnany, the Trump 2020 campaign national spokesperson turned White House press secretary.
Both gazed up at their boss reverently and smiled at his jokes. Meanwhile Dr Deborah Birx, response coordinator on the coronavirus taskforce, stood on the podium and spent long periods staring expressionless into the middle distance as Trump reeled off some golden oldies.
“We had the best economy in the history of the world, better than China, better than any country in the world, better than any country’s ever had,” he said, waving his hand at what was ostensibly a coronavirus taskforce briefing. “We had the highest stock market in history by far, and I’m honoured by the fact it’s started to go up very substantially.”
Donald Trump is asked whether he agrees with the argument that his current strategy of personal attacks against Kamala Harris isn’t working. He is also asked about his hiring of five new operatives.Trump denies that this is a sign of a shifting strategy, and says Corey Lewandowski is coming in as a “personal envoy”.He says he believes he is “entitled to personal attacks” because he is “very angry” at “what [Harris] has done to the country”. He adds:
I don’t have a lot of respect for her. I thinks she’ll be a terrible president.
Donald Trump is asked whether he has put much thought into “why God saved your life” during the assassination attempt last month, and “for what purpose”.Trump, who once promised that he would only talk about the shooting once “because it’s actually too painful to tell”, says it was a “miracle”. He says:
It’s a miracle, and God had something – maybe it’s [because] we want to save the world.
Donald Trump is asked when he last spoke with Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, following reports that the pair spoke on Wednesday about ongoing Gaza ceasefire and hostage release talks.Trump says the last time he saw Netanyahu was at Mar-a-Lago last month. He says that he has a “very good relationship” with Israel and claims that the Hamas attacks on southern Israel on 7 October “would have never happened” if he had been in the White House at the time.Trump says that his meeting with Netanyahu at the time was about two-and-a-half hours long, and that he hasn’t spoken to him since then.Donald Trump sold this as a news conference, but he has only just started taking questions from reporters – more than 45 minutes into his speech.Donald Trump claims that Kamala Harris wants to “defund the police”, despite the fact that the vice-president has distanced herself from previous remarks praising the movement following the murder of George Floyd in 2020.Harris has not advocated abolishing police forces, and her spokesperson has said that “she wants to fund the police, but she wants to do the other things as well”.Donald Trump says Kamala Harris is “far more radical than Bernie Sanders”, and says she has picked herself a running mate, Tim Walz, who is also “far more radical” than Sanders.Harris “wants to change a free-enterprise-type country into a communist-type country”, Trump says.He claims that as attorney general of California, Harris “destroyed” the state and that if elected, that she will do the same to the country.Trump claims that in California “you’re allowed to rob a store as long as it’s not more than $950”. This is not true.California’s Proposition 47 reclassified some felony crimes so that individuals who commit certain nonviolent drug and property crimes, including shoplifting merchandise under $950, would be sentenced on misdemeanor charges instead of felony charges.A misdemeanor sentence would still lead to a person serving up to a year in county jail, according to the Los Angeles Times.Donald Trump, speaking at a news conference from his New Jersey golf club, is sticking to a very similar script as when he addressed supporters at a rally yesterday in North Carolina.Wednesday’s rally was billed as a major address on the economy, an issue that is taking center stage in this presidential contest. Despite this, Trump said yesterday he was “not sure the economy is the most important topic” of the election.Trump claims Kamala Harris wants “communist price controls”, calling them “the Maduro plan” in reference to Venezuela’s authoritarian socialist leader. He quotes various inflation statistics for various staples of US household diets, as well as higher car insurance premiums and fuel costs.Donald Trump has begun speaking at his news conference in Bedminster, New Jersey, where he says he has “a lot of interesting” and “some very specific things” to talk about.Trump repeats his claim that the US is a “failing nation” with a “failing economy”, and says Kamala Harris has “broke the world” and that she “destroys everything she touches”.He goes on to accuse Harris of being Biden’s “border czar”, despite the fact that the vice-president was never made Biden’s “border czar”. The homeland security secretary, Alejandro Mayorkas, is the official in charge of border security.Trump claims that Harris is going to be easier to beat than Biden, and claims that he is leading in “most of the polls”. In reality, polls are showing that Harris is ahead of Trump or at least tied with him in most of the battleground states.The Ohio senator and the Republican vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, said he hoped that Robert F Kennedy Jr will drop out as an independent presidential candidate and endorse Donald Trump.Vance, speaking to reporters on his campaign plane today, said there were “a lot of people” in Trumpworld who think Kennedy is “fundamentally running a campaign that’s helping Kamala Harris”. He added:
At this point, I certainly hope that he drops out and endorses, you know, endorses President Trump.
Kennedy is “much closer on the issues” to Trump than to Harris,” Vance argued.From ABC News’s Hannah Demissie:Kamala Harris’s campaign has released a new video in which she and her running mate, the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, describe their ticket as joyful underdogs on the path to victory.“Our campaign is the underdog campaign,” Harris says to Walz in the 10-minute video.
And with our joy, we also have to understand that we’re still up against some forces that are trying to divide our country.
Walz compares the election to a football game, saying it’s “half-time in America”, to which Harris responds: “I’m looking at Coach Walz right now.”The video recalls a similar one between Joe Biden and Barack Obama during the 2020 campaign, AP reported.The Secret Service has approved a new security plan to better protect Donald Trump at outdoor events, the Washington Post is reporting.The security plan includes the use of bulletproof glass to shield him on stage, the Post writes, citing a Secret Service official.The effort comes after the Secret Service urged the Trump campaign to temporarily pause having him appear at outdoor rallies, after the assassination attempt on the former president at an open-air campaign rally last month. More
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Biden and Harris celebrate landmark deal to lower medication prices
by Evelyn Reynolds 15 August 2024, 20:11
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on Thursday cast themselves as the champions of American seniors in a David-and-Goliath fight against big pharmaceutical companies, at a joint event touting a landmark deal to lower the cost of prescription drugs.“We finally beat big pharma,” the US president declared, sharing the stage with his vice-president for the first time since he abandoned his re-election bid in late July and Harris replaced him as the Democratic nominee.The event, which came after a morning announcement about new lower drug prices for beneficiaries of Medicare, a government health insurance plan for seniors, was an opportunity to persuade voters that their administration has helped ease costs after years of high inflation. Healthcare, particularly the high cost of prescription drugs, is a top concern for US voters. Biden had held a slight lead over Donald Trump for his platform throughout the year before he dropped out of the race.Harris spoke first, calling Biden “our extraordinary president”, as the crowd, packed into the gymnasium at Prince George’s Community College, rose to its feet to applaud the president. “Thank you, Joe,” they chanted in appreciation of – according to several attendees – his record and his decision to step aside and pass the torch to Harris.Biden called Harris an “incredible partner” and said she would “make one hell of a president”.“We finally addressed the longstanding issue that for years was one of the biggest challenges on this subject, which was that Medicare was prohibited by law from negotiating lower drug prices, and those costs then got passed on to our seniors,” Harris said. “But not any more.”The 10 drugs subject to negotiations, among them widely used blood thinners and diabetes medications, are expected to save $6bn for Medicare, which is a major government health insurance program covering Americans older than 65, and those with certain disabilities, the administration said. Seniors should save $1.5bn directly in out-of-pocket costs.The negotiated prices, which take effect in 2026, were authorized by the Inflation Reduction Act, that Biden emphasized passed without a single Republican vote. The vice-president cast the tie-breaking vote in her role as president of the Senate.“We pay way too much for prescription drugs in America,” the health and human services secretary, Xavier Becerra, said.Before Biden and Harris spoke, administration officials and Maryland politicians celebrated the deal while thrilling the crowd with discreet references to Harris’s candidacy.“President’s a good title for her,” the retiring Maryland senator Ben Cardin winked in his remarks, crediting Harris for helping to pass the Democrats’ sweeping health and climate change bill.Biden, who simultaneously touted his record in office and played pass-the-torch, warned that if given a second term, Trump – who the president mocked as “the guy we’re running against, what’s his name? Donald Dump?” – would repeal Medicare’s authority to negotiate drug prices. He named the sweeping conservative policy agenda, Project 2025, that Trump has sought to distance himself from.“Let me tell you what our Project 2025 is: beat the hell out of them,” Biden said, drawing loud applause.Republican lawmakers have been highly critical of the Biden administration’s move, arguing that government-negotiated drug prices will stifle innovation and result in fewer lifesaving drugs being brought to market.In a joint statement, House Republicans accused Biden of “price-fixing”.“Make no mistake, price fixing has failed in every sector and in every country where it has ever been tried,” the statement by the House speaker, Mike Johnson, and the Republican leadership team said. “The Biden-Harris administration says it wants to lower prices for families, but their prescription drug price fixing scheme has accomplished just two things: driving up health care costs and crushing American innovation in medicine.”View image in fullscreenThe double act attracted a raucous audience, with hundreds of people waiting in the summer heat to glimpse the president’s final act and the vice-president’s ascent.“I’ve been waiting for this moment for a long, long time,” Biden said, noting that the first time he introduced legislation to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices was as a freshman senator shortly after he was elected, in 1972.“For the longest time I was too damn young because I was only 29 when I got elected,” he said. “Now I’m too damn old.”The negotiated prices, which take effect in 2026, are expected to save billions of dollars for the taxpayer-funded Medicare program. But they will lead to direct out-of-pocket savings for only a subset of the millions of older Americans who take the drugs subject to negotiations. Healthcare costs in the US have been rising for several decades, and Americans spend upwards of $13,000 a year on medical services and medications.The law already caps out-of-pocket costs for insulin at $35 a month for Medicare patients. It also calls for a $2,000 cap on out-of-pocket drug spending.Earlier this week, Harris and Biden participated in a Situation Room meeting to discuss the situation in the Middle East. They also appeared together on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews to welcome home US citizens wrongfully detained in Russia.On the campaign trail, the economy and cost of living remain top issues for voters, as Democrats seek to convince them that the president’s economic policies have had an impact on their pocketbooks. Democrats cheered news on Wednesday of easing inflation. Consumer prices rose 2.9% July, falling below 3% for the first time since 2021, new government data showed. But Americans continue to be squeezed by the high cost of rent and groceries.On Friday, Harris will travel to North Carolina to deliver an economic policy speech, during which her campaign said she would call for a federal ban on price gouging on groceries. Though Trump had held an advantage on the economy over Biden, recent polling suggests Harris has erased much of his early lead.Wes Moore, the governor of Maryland, introduced Biden and Harris, referring to them as the 46th and 47th president of the United States, which prompted chants of “48” – a promising sign for the charismatic Democratic rising star.Linda Hunt, 80, said she rarely attended political events, but came to witness history.“I came to pay him respect – that’s primary but I also wanted to see and hear her in person,” she said. “It was historical.” More
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JD Vance agrees to October vice-presidential debate with Tim Walz
by Evelyn Reynolds 15 August 2024, 18:45
JD Vance, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, has accepted an invitation by CBS to debate Tim Walz, his Democratic counterpart, on 1 October after initially appearing to hedge.Vance, Donald Trump’s running mate, also said he was accepting another invitation from CNN to debate Walz on 18 September, although it was unclear whether the Democratic nominee had agreed to the challenge.“The American people deserve as many debates as possible, which is why President Trump has challenged Kamala [Harris] to three of them already,” Vance posted on X.“Not only do I accept the CBS debate on October 1st, I accept the CNN debate on September 18th as well. I look forward to seeing you at both!”Vance’s sudden willingness was a belated response to Walz, the governor of Minnesota, who had posted “See you on October 1, JD” after CBS offered four possible debate dates on Wednesday.The Republican vice-presidential candidate had originally told Fox News that he wanted to avoid “a fake news garbage debate” and said he had questions over the moderators and format before accepting.There was no immediate sign that Walz – who has goaded Vance about his hardline anti-abortion stance – had accepted the CNN invite to a separate debate.A statement from the Harris-Walz campaign’s communication director, Michael Tyler, referred only to the confirmed scheduling of the 1 October debate and two separate encounters between Harris and Trump, one set for 10 September and the other for the following month.“Assuming Donald Trump actually shows up on September 10 to debate Vice-President Harris, then Governor Walz will see JD Vance on October 1 and the American people will have another opportunity to see the vice-president and Donald Trump on the debate stage in October,” Tyler said.“Voters deserve to see the candidates for the highest office in the land share their competing visions for our future. The more they play games, the more insecure and unserious Trump and Vance reveal themselves to be to the American people. Those games end now.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionHarris owes her elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket to a debate – or rather to Joe Biden’s inability to participate in it effectively. It was the president’s woeful performance in a debate against Trump on 27 June that led to intense pressure from Democrats for him to step aside as the party’s candidate, which he did on 21 July.Biden and Trump were due to debate again on 10 September, hosted by ABC. But since the president’s withdrawal from the race, Trump has sent mixed signals about his intention to turn up for the same rendezvous against Harris, before eventually agreeing to do so.Vance has affected disappointment that Harris’s promotion has denied him the opportunity to debate her.“I was told I was gonna get to debate Kamala Harris, and now President Trump’s gonna get to debate her? I’m kind of pissed off about that, if I’m being honest with you,” he said at a campaign rally in Middletown, Ohio, last month. More

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