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    The Democrats are in deep trouble in the US – and Labour is on the way to joining them | Nesrine Malik

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    The measure of a political party’s failure lies not in how many agnostics and opponents it fails to convert, but in how many loyalists it fails to preserve. The endorsement of new, unnatural voters – Latinos in the US for Donald Trump, or Tories voting for Labour for the first time – might deliver big electoral swings but is ultimately not sticky. And these votes are only meaningful if the bedrock is solid. That bedrock is the people who consistently show up, no matter what, from generation to generation, for a party. And the Democrats are losing them.In extensive research published last week tracking voter registration, the New York Times identified an alarming pattern. The Democratic party has been “haemorrhaging” voters since way before election day. In the states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost to Republicans in all of them in the years between 2020 and 2024. By the time Kamala Harris took over from Joe Biden, the party had already shed more than 2m votes in those states, and Republicans had gained 2.4m. This is part of a “four-year swing” that amounts to 4.5m votes. In a chilling conclusion, the report states that “few measurements reflect the luster of a political party’s brand more clearly than the choice by voters to identify with it”.The signs get worse the more closely you look. It’s not just a decline in new registered voters, but a hacking away of those natural voters who parties can easily rely on. Some of the sharpest declines were among young voters who came out emphatically for Joe Biden in 2020, then swung towards Trump in 2024. An assumption that voters who are young, Black or Latino would register mostly in the Democrats’ favour was no longer safe.The most striking thing about these revelations is how long and consistent the turn-off has been: “There is no silver lining or cavalry coming across the hill,” said one voter registration analyst, “this is month after month, year after year.” They show how during the last election, when the Democrats were battling with the damage of a belated handover from Biden to Harris, and a swirl of other challenges, the party was already on the back foot, hostage to a years-long disillusionment. And if you look at some of the reasoning for Democrat abandonment from last year, the same conclusion heaves into view – the Democrats rested on their laurels, and Trump attacked. The vibe contest was between business as usual, and the promise of something different.The result is a cratering of Democrat support that cannot be filled in overnight, or even over the next three years, especially with the party seemingly in disarray, and with a lo-fi leadership in Chuck Schumer accused of being “unwilling and unable to meet the moment”. It’s not about the unique, mendacious bewitching of voters by Trump, but something broader. Centre-left parties seem trapped by their inability and unwillingness to articulate values in ways that go beyond just saying the other guys are bad for democracy, by identifying a vision of what and who they are for.They are operating in a world where traditional coalitions around class, labour and identity are dissolving, where high barriers to home ownership, social mobility and job stability have been erected, and the relationship between hard work and prosperity, or even viability, has been severed. Combine that with an online and media ecosystem that trades in attention and feeling, and you have a political climate that requires policy intervention and campaigning edge.Instead, as summed up by Gabriel Winant after Trump’s victory, Kamala Harris had “stretched her coalition into incoherence” in a “grab bag” of policies “sharing no clear thematic unity or coherence”. This is the result of both a lack of direction, and of a party that now houses both the powerful and those at the losing end of that power, which can only mean a lop-sided capture by the former. Or, as chillingly observed by Anton Jäger: “Bankers and warmongers predominate in Democrat ruling circles, the indebted and the marginalised among its rank-and-file.” This reminds me of Keir Starmer’s drive to cast Labour as “pro-business, pro-worker and pro-wealth creation”. You cannot have coherence when the interests you represent, or claim to represent, are by definition antagonistic.This brand tension has an analogue in a smaller but no less revealing way in the UK, where students are abandoning Labour. University Labour clubs are disaffiliating from the party, Labour’s youth membership has collapsed, the tail of a longer falling out with Labour leadership over Gaza. But this is a broader confrontation between young voters and a party that has failed to stand for any clear moral principles that appeal to the idealism so necessary to create not only future voters, but activists and campaigners. On Gaza, Labour is anti-starvation, but also anti-protest.And both the Democrats and Labour are positioning themselves antagonistically to those whose sharper expressions of political vision are hugely popular with those who are abandoning them. Senior Democrats might still not endorse New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, who is posting stunning polling leads. Labour disciplines MPs for rebelling against benefit cuts, even as hundreds of thousands of people register their support for a new party.But as new and future voters are lost, the lion’s share of the windfall goes to those on the right and extreme right who have already mastered the gamification of politics, and the ability to summon fever dreams of threats that must be dealt with and prosperity that is just around the corner. “Elections are won from the centre” goes the old adage, but increasingly the centre itself has changed as the world becomes not a place of wide-tent compromise, but of irreconcilable differences. And I would venture another formulation – elections are won in the past. By the time it becomes apparent that remote and complacent centrist politics is not even managing to convince its own tribes, it will be too late. Some would argue it already is.

    Nesrine Malik is a Guardian columnist More

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      Tuesday briefing: What last night’s meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy and Europe means for the war in Ukraine

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      Good morning. Last night, Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the White House flanked by a dream team of hastily assembled European heavyweights. Their aim: to coax Donald Trump out of pro-Russian positions he adopted after his Alaska meeting with Vladimir Putin last Friday.The meeting was a sign of both panic and resolve from Europe. The fact Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and more cleared their diaries at such short notice to fly to Washington is an indication of how alarmed they are by Trump’s desire to move straight to a peace deal without a ceasefire – and his insistence that Zelenskyy give up Ukrainian territory.Progress was made on US security guarantees, and Trump and Zelenskyy have said they will both be holding face-to-face talks with Putin – although the Russian and Ukrainian leaders still appear worlds apart in their demands. Macron said he had “serious doubts” about Putin’s desire for peace.For this morning’s newsletters, I had a chat with our senior international correspondent Luke Harding about the key points agreed in Washington last night, what it means for international diplomacy, and what is next for Ukraine. That’s after the headlines.Five big stories

      Tax | Rachel Reeves is considering replacing stamp duty with a new property tax that would apply to the sale of homes worth more than £500,000, the Guardian has been told.

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      Conservatives | Leaked WhatsApp messages show Conservative MPs are worried that their party’s “piss-poor” messaging over asylum-seeker hotels is making the party look silly. It follows the release of an advert by Conservative campaign headquarters last week, making claims that have since been challenged as exaggerations, such as that asylum seekers receive free driving lessons and free PlayStation consoles.

      Bolivia | Bolivia’s presidential election will go to a runoff, with two rightwing candidates seemingly the top runners. It’s an unprecedented scenario after nearly two decades of leftist rule by the Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas).

      Environment | Relentless heat and disastrous wildfires continue to ravage southern Europe, with one-quarter of weather stations in Spain recording 40C temperatures and above, the latest in a series of disasters exacerbated by climate breakdown amid a continental rollback of green policies.
      In depth: ‘The meeting was significantly better than their pretty awful encounter in February’View image in fullscreenThe aim of this rare and sweeping show of diplomatic force was to safeguard Ukraine, and Europe more broadly, from any widening aggression from Moscow. It was probably also a reminder to Trump of Europe’s combined importance as an economic giant compared with Russia’s much smaller economy.The European delegation included leaders of Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Finland, the European Union and Nato. By arriving as a group they avoided another debacle like Zelenskyy’s February visit to the Oval Office, where Trump and JD Vance chastised him as not showing enough gratitude for American military aid. Here is video of that meeting in case you’d like to remind yourself of the horrific blow-up that Trump thought was “great television”.“The meeting with Zelenskyy and Trump was significantly better than their pretty awful encounter in February of this year,” says Luke Harding. “I think Zelenskyy was well prepared this time: he expressed gratitude to Trump on many occasions, handed a letter from his wife to Melania the first lady.” There was a fair amount of “sucking up to Donald Trump”, says Luke, and of European leaders not trying to offend him.Key European demands are that all decisions must be made with Ukraine present, and that a ceasefire is a pre-condition before further peace talks. They were looking to understand what security guarantees the US is willing to offer in the event of a settlement.Overall, the atmosphere was good, says Luke. “Zelenskyy was even funny on occasions. When Brian Glenn – the reporter who mocked him for not wearing a suit in February – asked a question, Zelenskyy pointed out that Glenn was still wearing the same suit and Zelenskyy had changed his. So overall, the atmosphere was OK.”Did they get through to Trump?Rather than concessions from Ukraine, the summit focused on arranging security guarantees in the event of a peace deal. Trump said the guarantees “would be provided by the various European countries [in] coordination with the United States of America”.The Nato secretary general, Mark Rutte, described the development as “a breakthrough”. Membership of Nato is not on the table, but the US and European leaders are discussing “Article 5 kind of security guarantees for Ukraine”, Rutte said.“What is important is that Trump said the US would play a role in providing security to Ukraine in the event of a settlement. You might consider that to be progress, but we don’t know what it means,” says Luke. “As ever with Trump there is a huge gap between what he says and what he does.“I suspect at the end of the day the White House will not want to do very much, but at least this was something tangible. The Kremlin appears to be quite annoyed – that is modest progress for Ukraine, depending on what the US is prepared to commit.”Trump is still saying there is no need for a ceasefire – because he says he has stopped a number of wars without one. There appears to have been less movement on this issue. “The European position was that a ceasefire must come before any trilateral talks – that is common sense when Ukrainians are being killed every day,” says Luke.How did the meetings go for Zelenskyy?Like Europe, Zelenskyy wants a ceasefire before any peace deal and is unwilling to make any territorial concessions. Kyiv wants Nato-like security guarantees sufficient to deter Russia from attacking again. As a reminder, Russia took Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014 and launched a full invasion in 2022, attacking four Ukrainian regions: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.Ahead of the meeting, Trump had pushed Ukraine to give up Crimea and abandon its goal of joining Nato – both key demands made by Putin. But Zelenskyy stressed he had been able to present a clearer picture of the battle lines to Trump, whom he met in a one-on-one in the Oval Office.“This was the best of our meetings,” Zelenskyy said, according to a statement put out by his office. “I was able to show many things, even on the map, to all American colleagues regarding the situation on the battlefield.”Luke says: “On the substantive issue – which is how to get a peace deal – he correctly and deftly dodged a question on whether Ukraine was ready to swap land in return for peace.” This is Trump’s preferred peace plan after his meeting with Putin in Alaska over the weekend.Speaking to reporters after the Washington talks, Zelenskyy said “we had a truly warm, good and substantial conversation”. The next steps in the negotiations turn back to Putin, and the Ukrainian president said he was ready for what would be their first face-to-face since Moscow’s invasion nearly three and a half years ago. “I confirmed – and all European leaders supported me – that we are ready for a bilateral meeting with Putin.”What did Trump get out of the meeting?View image in fullscreenTrump previously bragged on numerous occasions that he could settle Russia’s war in Ukraine in a day, but on Monday he said repeatedly that it was far more complicated than he ever thought it would be.Trump previously favoured Kyiv’s proposal for an immediate ceasefire to conduct deeper peace talks. However, he reversed course after the summit and indicated support for Russia’s approach of negotiating a comprehensive deal while fighting continues (for a reminder of how bad things are on the ground in Ukraine, take a look at yesterday’s newsletter).After the Washington talks, Trump said on social media that he called Putin and began the arrangements for a meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, at a location to be determined. “This was a very good, early step for a war that has been going on for almost four years,” Trump said.Ukraine’s president said he was ready to meet with Russia in “any format” and that territorial issues were “something we will leave between me and Putin”.What next for the war in Ukraine and peace negotiations?Much remains unresolved, including red lines that are incompatible – like whether Ukraine will cede any land to Russia, the future of Ukraine’s army, and whether the country will ultimately have lasting and meaningful security guarantees.“I think where it will go from here,” says Luke, “is that when a deal fails to come together and Zelenskyy fails to give away his land, Trump will start blaming Zelenskyy again, saying he’s the problem.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“Ultimately as things stand, there isn’t really a meaningful way forward to a peace agreement. I mean Putin’s demands are as maximalist as ever – he wants Ukraine to give up a large chunk in the east of the country, in the Donbas region.”Although this seems to be Trump’s preferred route to ending the conflict, it is unlikely to work for Zelenskyy – were he to make this huge concession, Luke says, he would be swept away by popular protest.“I think it’s entirely possible that in the next month or so, the Americans will comprehensively exit from supporting Ukraine. Already they’ve stopped delivering weapons. I can see a pull-out from Trump,” says Luke.“What I find so strange is the way Trump defends Putin, wants to include him, talks about calling him imminently, says he had a great meeting in Alaska. It seems ultimately that is where his sympathies lie – with Russia.”What else we’ve been readingView image in fullscreen

      The New York Times describes 64-year-old Betsy Lerner as a TikTok star, for the following she’s amassed since she started reading out diary entries that she wrote in her twenties. In a new start after 60, Lerner explains she doesn’t see herself that way. But a generation of 20-year-olds who find solace in her entries today may disagree. Poppy Noor, deputy editor, newsletters

      This is the remarkable (and shocking) story of Windrush victim George Lee who has come back to the UK after 28 years of exile in Poland. “I’m past the stage where I can feel angry,” he says. His observations of how life has changed in London during that period are depressing – notably people looking more stressed with “tiredness etched on their faces”. Phoebe

      Nesrine Malik’s tender piece about the dogged reporting of journalists in Gaza sheds a light on a potential reason so many have been killed: their commitment, professionalism and talent causes a real legitimacy problem for the Israeli government. “What the Israeli government is trying to do with these killings is not just stop the stream of damning reports and footage, but annihilate the very image of Palestinians that these media professionals convey,” she says. Poppy

      A fascinating piece by John Harris on the future of outdoor work in the age of extreme heat, with alarming stories of people being forced to work in inhumane conditions. Particularly timely given the relentless heat currently barrelling its ways across Europe. Phoebe

      Perhaps we’d all like to be green-fingered influencers, working leisurely through our homegrown vegetables at the dinner table. But Nicola Slawson’s piece on giving up her allotment after realising that’s just not who she is will speak to the many of us who aren’t. Poppy
      SportView image in fullscreenFootball | Lukas Nmecha’s 84th-minute penalty gave Leeds a 1-0 win over Everton on their return to the Premier League.Tennis | Carlos Alcaraz has won the Cincinnati Open for the first time in his career after his great rival, world No 1, Jannik Sinner was forced to retire from their highly anticipated final with illness while trailing 0-5 in the opening set.Tennis | Jack Draper and Emma Raducanu will face each other in the first round of the revamped US Open mixed doubles.The front pagesView image in fullscreen“Trump: no need for ceasefire to secure Ukraine peace deal” is the Guardian’s takeaway from events in Washington. The Telegraph announces “US military to protect Ukraine” while the Express has “Trump: US will ensure any deal works” and the Times reports “Trump offers ‘very good’ Kyiv security guarantee”. The Daily Mail assesses the meeting: “It was electric with jeopardy, a chess match with live grenades” while the Mirror pessimises that it was a “Stalemate” with Trump’s peacemaking efforts unlikely to work. “Trump’s White House welcome: we can still do a deal with Putin” says the i paper. Give us your topline, Financial Times: “Trump floats prospect of US security guarantee in bid to end Ukraine war”. Main story in the Metro is “UK’s 5,000 fake online pharmacies”.Today in FocusView image in fullscreenHow far-right rhetoric on migration went mainstreamAcademic and author Dr Maya Goodfellow discusses how UK politicians have adopted far-right language on asylum and immigration.Cartoon of the day | Ben JenningsView image in fullscreenThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badView image in fullscreenA new report shows just how impactful a raft of groundbreaking welfare policies by former Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador have been. Obrador’s policies, which included a tripling of the minimum wage, and a system of cash transfers for vulnerable groups, made a measurable impact on the lives of millions of everyday Mexicans, according to a dispatch by reporter Oscar Lopez.When Obrador took office in 2018, there were nearly 52 million people living below the poverty line. Six years later, that number had dropped by 13.4 million, an unparalleled reduction of nearly 26%.There has never been a single six-year term in which poverty has been reduced or decreased so significantly,” said Viri Ríos, a public policy expert and director of Mexico Decoded. “This is a watershed moment for the Mexican economy.”Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

      Quick crossword

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      Zelenskyy’s European ‘bodyguards’: which leaders joined Trump talks in Washington?

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      European leaders gathered in Washington on Monday for Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s meeting with Donald Trump in the Oval Office, in a show of support for the Ukrainian president. Their presence came amid expectations that Trump would try to bully Zelenskyy into accepting a pro-Russia “peace plan” that would include Kyiv handing territory to Moscow. The Europeans have been described as Zelenskyy’s “bodyguards”, with memories fresh of the mauling he received in February during his last Oval Office visit. So, who are they?Mark RutteSecretary general of NatoRutte has a proven record of flattering Trump for strategic purposes, using language that some allies find cringe-making. In June he referred to the capricious US president as “Daddy” in an attempt to avoid disastrous outbursts at the Nato summit. Rutte has repeatedly praised Trump in public, including in a recent interview on Fox News, and credits him for pushing Nato members to spend 3.5% of their GDP on defence. The US had carried the burden of European security for too long, Rutte has said – music to Trump’s ears.Ursula von der LeyenPresident of the European CommissionVon der Leyen is a staunch supporter of Ukraine who backs Kyiv’s EU membership. For Trump, she is a reminder of Europe’s combined importance as an economic bloc. The US struck a trade deal with the EU three weeks ago, and Trump hailed the relationship as “the biggest trading partnership in the world”. On Sunday she hosted Zelenskyy in Brussels. She said a post-peace-deal Ukraine had to become “a steel porcupine, indigestible for potential invaders”, with no limits on its armed forces.Keir StarmerUK prime minister Starmer has performed a balancing act when it comes to Trump, keeping him on side while advocating for Ukraine. So far, this tactic has worked. The US president has gone out of his way to emphasise their good relations, despite Starmer’s “liberal” outlook. Both men have an incentive to preserve this rapport ahead of Trump’s state visit next month to the UK. Meanwhile, Starmer and Zelenskyy have developed a warm personal relationship, hugging in February outside Downing Street after Zelenskyy’s previous, disastrous Oval Office meeting, and again last week. The prime minister stresses territorial integrity, which contradicts Trump’s “peace deal” that involves Russia taking more Ukrainian land.Alexander StubbPresident of Finland Stubb represents a small European state but he will be in Washington because he has managed to establish an unexpectedly warm relationship with Trump. The Finnish leader cultivated his access to the US president by hastily polishing his rusty golfing skills before an impromptu trip to Florida in March for a round with Trump, on the recommendation of the Republican senator Lindsey Graham. Stubb’s message on the putting green: you can’t trust Vladimir Putin. Finland sees parallels between Ukraine’s plight and its own history, the Soviet Union having invaded in 1939, saying it needed Finnish territory.Emmanuel MacronFrench presidentMacron combines French economic and military clout with a proven ability to get on with Trump, symbolised by their intense handshakes. In the lead-up to Russia’s 2022 invasion, Macron flew to Moscow to reason with Putin. He has since become a key diplomatic ally for Ukraine. Asked on Sunday whether Putin wanted a genuine peace deal, Macron replied: “No.” He said Ukraine needed a strong army and security guarantees if a lasting settlement was to be achieved. The French president will want to persuade Trump that his post-Alaska-summit plan to stop the fighting is a non-starter, and against Ukraine and Europe’s long-term security interests.Friedrich MerzGerman presidentMerz has cut a sure-footed figure on the world stage since taking office in May, including largely holding his own in an Oval Office face-off with Trump over the summer. He has emerged as a crucial partner for Zelenskyy, who was often frustrated with Merz’s slow-moving predecessor, Olaf Scholz. Berlin has clout as one pillar of the French-German axis at the heart of the EU. It is also a major financial donor to Kyiv. Merz’s task in the Oval Office is to persuade Trump not to act hastily and “over the heads of Ukrainians and Europeans”, as he put it last week.Giorgia MeloniPrime minister of ItalyMeloni has broken off from her holiday to fly to Washington, a sign that Trump’s Russia-friendly “peace plan” marks a moment of danger for Europe. She will be a useful bridge in the Oval Office meeting, as a European far-right leader whom Trump counts as a friend. Meloni has spent time at Mar-a-Lago, the US president’s Florida home, and was the only European leader invited to his inauguration in January. At the same time, she strongly supports Kyiv’s sovereignty. In July she hosted a Ukraine recovery conference in Rome, designed to help the country rebuild when Russia’s war finally ends. More

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      Putin ready to make Ukraine deal, Trump says before Alaska summit

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      Donald Trump has said he believes Vladimir Putin is ready to make a deal on the war in Ukraine as the two leaders prepare for their summit in Alaska on Friday, but his suggestion the Russian leader and Volodymyr Zelenskyy could “divvy things up” may alarm some in Kyiv.The US president implied there was a 75% chance of the Alaska meeting succeeding, and that the threat of economic sanctions may have made Putin more willing to seek an end to the war.Trump insisted that he would not let Putin get the better of him in Friday’s meeting, telling reporters: “I am president, and he’s not going to mess around with me.“I’ll know within the first two minutes, three minutes, four minutes or five minutes … whether or not we’re going to have a good meeting or a bad meeting.“And if it’s a bad meeting, it’ll end very quickly, and if it’s a good meeting, we’re going to end up getting peace in the pretty near future,” said Trump.He also said a second meeting – not yet confirmed – between him, Putin and Zelenskyy would be the more decisive.“The second meeting is going to be very, very important, because that’s going to be a meeting where they make a deal. And I don’t want to use the word ‘divvy’ things up, but you know, to a certain extent, it’s not a bad term, OK?” Trump told Fox News Radio.He was referring to the possibility that Zelenskyy will have to accept “land swaps” – in practice the handing over of Ukrainian territory to Russia, potentially including some not captured by Moscow.Later on Thursday, Trump suggested that any second, trilateral meeting could happen quickly – and possibly take place in Alaska.“Tomorrow, all I want to do is set the table for the next meeting, which should happen shortly,” he said. “I’d like to see it actually happen, maybe in Alaska.”Any such meeting would be a concession by Putin since he refuses to recognise Zelenskyy as the legitimate leader of Ukraine.Trump conceded he was unsure whether an immediate ceasefire could be achieved, but expressed interest in brokering a peace agreement. On Putin, he said: “I believe now, he’s convinced that he’s going to make a deal. I think he’s going to, and we’re going to find out.”Zelenskyy will face a difficult choice if Putin rejects Ukraine’s call for a full 30-day ceasefire and offers only a partial break in the fighting, particularly if Trump thinks a three-way meeting should still go ahead.The Ukrainian president spent much of Thursday in London discussing Wednesday’s video call between European leaders and Trump with the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer. European leaders were largely relieved with the way the conversation went, but know Trump is unpredictable and prone to acting on instinct, rather than sticking to a script.View image in fullscreenThe US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said changes on the battlefield could make peace harder. “To achieve a peace, I think we all recognise that there’ll have to be some conversation about security guarantees,” he said.Trump has rejected offering such guarantees before, but it is possible European security guarantees could be agreed. Rubio said he believed Trump had spoken by phone to Putin four times and “felt it was important to now speak to him in person and look him in the eye and figure out what was possible and what isn’t”.Starmer and Zelenskyy met in Downing Street for breakfast on Thursday and hailed “a visible chance for peace” as long as Putin proved he was serious about ending the war.European leaders emerged from Wednesday’s meeting reassured that Trump was going into his summit focused on extracting Putin’s commitment to a durable ceasefire and was not seeking to negotiate over Ukraine’s head.The plan for Trump and Putin to hold a joint press conference after their talks suggests the White House is optimistic the summit will bring about a breakthrough. Moscow is determined that the summit should not just focus on Ukraine but also agree steps to restart US-Russian economic cooperation.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionIn a brief summary of the Downing Street meeting, British officials said Zelenskyy and Starmer expressed cautious optimism about a truce “as long as Putin takes action to prove he is serious” about peace. In a separate statement, Zelenskyy said there had been discussions about the security guarantees required to make any deal “truly durable if the United States succeeds in pressing Russia to stop the killing”.On Wednesday Starmer co-chaired a virtual meeting of the “coalition of the willing” – a European-led effort to send a peacekeeping force to Ukraine to enforce any deal – where he said there was a “viable” chance of a truce.On Thursday the prime minister gave Zelenskyy a bear hug in the street outside the door to No 10 in a symbol of continuing British solidarity with the Ukrainian cause. Similar public displays of solidarity followed the disastrous February meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, when the two leaders quarrelled in front of the cameras in the White House.View image in fullscreenFurther sanctions could be imposed on Russia should the Kremlin fail to engage, and Starmer said the UK was already working on its next package of measures targeting Moscow.Trump has frequently said he will know if he can achieve peace in Ukraine only by meeting Putin personally. He sets great faith in his personal relationship with the Russian leader, but on Wednesday he played down expectations of what he could do to persuade Putin to relent. At the same time he warned there would be “very severe consequences” for Russia if Putin did not agree to a ceasefire, a veiled threat to increase US sanctions on Russian oil exports.He has so far held off from imposing such economic pressure on Russia, but by the end of the month the US is due to impose additional tariffs on Indian imports into the US as a punishment for India continuing to buy Russian oil.The UK would like to see the US consider other, more targeted sanctions, either on the so-called shadow fleet of Russian oil tankers or on refineries that use Russian oil. But Moscow briefed that the Alaska summit, far from leading to extra economic pressure on the Russian economy, would instead include discussion and agreements on new US-Russian economic cooperation, a step that would relieve the pressure on Russian state finances.Some European leaders took heart from the detailed grasp of the issues shown on the call by the US vice-president, JD Vance, and by hints that Trump could be willing to contribute US assets to a European-led security guarantee for Ukraine in the event of a peace agreement.The Alaska summit, due to start at 11.30am local time (2030 BST), will include a one-to-one meeting between Trump and Putin, with interpreters, then a wider meeting.The Russian delegation will include the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov; the defence minister, Andrei Belousov; the finance minister, Anton Siluanov; the head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev; and Putin’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov. More

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      Trump cuts deadline for Putin to reach Ukraine peace deal to ‘10 or 12 days’

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      Donald Trump’s timeline for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine has sped up, the president said while visiting Nato ally Great Britain on Monday.“I’m going to make a new deadline of about 10, 10 or 12 days from today,” Trump said in response to a question while sitting with the British prime minister, Keir Starmer. “There’s no reason in waiting. There’s no reason in waiting. It’s 50 days. I want to be generous, but we just don’t see any progress being made.”Russian and Ukrainian diplomats met in Istanbul last week, agreeing on little more than a prisoner exchange. Ukraine proposed a summit by the end of August between the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, but Russia’s reply was that such a meeting would only be appropriate if it were to sign an agreement. The meeting was the third negotiation in Istanbul. Putin has not attended any of the talks, despite Trump’s exhortations.Trump’s comments in recent weeks reflect the continuing change from his almost-conciliatory posture. US diplomats asked China to stop exports of dual-use goods that the Washington says contribute to Russia’s military industrial base.Trump said he was “disappointed” in Putin earlier on Monday. “We thought we had that settled numerous times, and then President Putin goes out and starts launching rockets into some city like Kyiv and kills a lot of people in a nursing home or whatever. You have bodies lying all over the street, and I say that’s not the way to do it. So we’ll see what happens with that.”Two weeks ago, Trump promised a punishing round of new sanctions against Russia if Putin did not begin a ceasefire period for negotiations. An agreement for European allies to purchase billions of dollars in additional armaments for Ukraine, including Patriot missile defense systems, accompanied the 15 July statement during a meeting with Nato’s secretary general, Mark Rutte.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump hosted Starmer and the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, at his Turnberry golf course in Scotland, where ending the war in Ukraine and trade issues have been at the top of the agenda. Before leaving Washington on Friday, Trump said that he was considering secondary sanctions on Russia amid the war in Ukraine. More

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      Donald Trump to meet UK prime minister Keir Starmer in Scotland with trade deal on the agenda – US politics live

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      Discussions are continuing regarding any tariff exemptions for the wines and spirits sectors in the framework trade deal between the European Union and United States, a senior European Commission official said on Monday.The official added that talks in this regard were more advanced in the spirits sector, as opposed to the wines sector.Hello and welcome to the US politics live blog. I’m Tom Ambrose and will be bringing you all the latest news lines over the next few hours.We start with the news that president Donald Trump will host the British prime minister Keir Starmer at his golf resort in western Scotland on Monday for talks ranging from their recent bilateral trade deal to the worsening hunger crisis in Gaza, the two governments said.Trump, riding high after announcing a huge trade agreement with the European Union late on Sunday, said he expected Starmer would also be pleased, Reuters reported.“The prime minister of the UK, while he’s not involved in this, will be very happy because you know, there’s a certain unity that’s been brought there, too,” Trump said. “He’s going to be very happy to see what we did.”Starmer had hoped to negotiate a drop in U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs as part of the talks, but Trump on Sunday ruled out any changes in the 50% steel and aluminium duties for the EU, and has said the trade deal with Britain is “concluded”British business and trade minister Jonathan Reynolds told the BBC the talks with Trump offered Britain a good chance to advance its arguments, but he did not expect announcements on the issue on Monday.Trump and Starmer were expected to meet at 12pm BST (7am ET) at Trump’s luxury golf resort in Turnberry, on Scotland’s west coast, before travelling on together later to a second sprawling estate owned by Trump in the east, near Aberdeen, where he is due to arrive at 5.25pm.Hundreds of police officers were guarding the perimeter of the Turnberry course and the beach that flanks it, with a helicopter hovering overhead, although there was no sign of protesters outside the course.Starmer was arriving from Switzerland, where England on Sunday won the women’s European football championship final.In other developments:

      Donald Trump has announced a tariff deal with the European Union to end months of difficult negotiations between Washington and Brussels after meeting the European Commission chief, Ursula von der Leyen, at his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland. “This is really the biggest trading partnership in the world so we should give it a shot,” the president said before the private meeting started.

      US House speaker Mike Johnson said he would have “great pause” about granting a pardon or commutation to Ghislaine Maxwell while Kentucky Republican representative Thomas Massie said a pardon should be on the table for the jailed Epstein confidante if she were to give helpful information around the Epstein case.

      A top US medical body has expressed “deep concern” to Robert F Kennedy Jr over news reports that the health secretary plans to overhaul a panel that determines which preventive health measures, including cancer screenings, should be covered by insurance companies. The letter from the the American Medical Association comes after the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Kennedy plans to overhaul the 40-year old US preventive services task force because he regards it as too “woke”, according to sources.

      Thai and Cambodian leaders will meet on Monday for talks to end hostilities, Thailand said, after pressure from Donald Trump to end a deadly border dispute. More

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      Dear Keir Starmer, stop cosying up to Donald Trump – or he’ll drag Britain down with him | Simon Tisdall

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      Donald Trump’s victory in last November’s US presidential election presented Keir Starmer, Britain’s Labour prime minister, with a choice – and an opportunity. Either cosy up to a man whose obnoxious, hard-right, ultra-nationalist policies are inimical to UK security and foreign policy interests, economic prosperity and democratic values; or risk a rupture with the US, a longstanding but overbearing ally, and seize the moment to redefine Britain’s place in the world, primarily through reintegration in Europe.Starmer made the wrong call – and Britain has paid a heavy price ever since. The cost to national dignity and the public purse will be on painful show this weekend as Trump, pursued by the Epstein scandal and angry protesters, makes an expensively policed, ostensibly private visit to his golf courses in Scotland. On Monday, the prime minister will travel north to kiss the ring. More humiliations loom. In September, Trump will return for an unprecedented second state visit, at Starmer’s unctuous behest. At that point, the full, embarrassing extent of Britain’s thraldom will be there for all the world to see.Let’s be clear. Trump is no friend of Britain’s and is, in key respects, a dangerous foe. Efforts to curry favour with this narcissist will ultimately prove futile. Trump always reneges. His unedifying career is littered with broken promises and relationships, personal and political. His only loyalty is to himself. Right now, this wannabe dictator is busy making America not greater but weaker, poorer, less influential and more disliked. Don’t let him drag Britain down, too. It’s not too late to make the break.US leadership of the western democracies used to be taken for granted. Now it’s a problem. Politicians in both Britain’s main parties have difficulty accepting this shift. As so often, public opinion is ahead of them. Recent polling by the Pew Research Center found 62% of Britons have no confidence in Trump “to do the right thing regarding world affairs”. Most of those surveyed in 24 countries viewed him as dangerous, arrogant and dishonest. Thanks to him, the US’s international standing is in freefall.Giving Israel a free hand in Gaza is the most egregious example of how Trump’s policies conflict with UK interests. Starmer’s government has condemned the deliberate killing and starving of civilians. Among the 55% of Britons opposed to Israel’s actions, 82% believe they amount to genocide, a YouGov poll found last month. A majority backs additional sanctions. Trump’s support for forced relocations, opposition to a two-state solution and close collaboration with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli leader charged with war crimes, all contradict stated UK policy. Trump bears significant personal responsibility for what Starmer calls the “unspeakable and indefensible” horror in Gaza.Starmer warned dramatically last month that the UK was in growing danger of military attack following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Britain and other Nato states have steadfastly supported Kyiv. Not so Trump. Since taking office, he has toadied to Vladimir Putin, vilified Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, suspended military supplies and questioned Nato’s future. Ignoring proliferation fears, Trump is simultaneously fuelling a nuclear arms race. Now the hapless Starmer has been panicked into buying US jets capable of carrying warheads and, it is claimed, has secretly allowed US-owned nukes back into the UK. This is not the Britain Labour voters want.Trump recently reversed himself on Ukraine, patched things up with Nato and criticised Putin. But he could change his mind again tomorrow. Oblivious to the glaring double standard, he congratulates himself meanwhile on “obliterating” Iran’s nuclear facilities – even though last month’s illegal US bombing was only partly successful. Britain rightly favours negotiations with Tehran. It wasn’t consulted.Trump’s tariff wars pose a direct threat to the UK economy, jobs and living standards. Despite Starmer’s deal mitigating their impact, 10% tariffs or higher remain on most US-bound exports. Trump’s bullying of Canada, Mexico, Greenland, Panama and others over sovereignty, migration and trade feeds uncertainty. His irrational hostility to the EU may gratify the likes of Nigel Farage (and Putin). But endless rows between important allies do not serve Britain’s interests.The advance of hard-right, nationalist-populist parties in Europe and, most recently, in Japan suggests the socially divisive, chauvinist agendas championed by Trump’s Maga movement have widening international appeal. That augurs ill for democracy in Britain and the world generally. For the same reason, Trump’s assaults on US constitutional rights, notably minority and gender rights, attacks on judges, universities and public institutions, and attempts to suppress independent media scrutiny are ominous. Such toxic behaviour is contagious. Trumpism is the new Covid. Britain needs inoculation.By slashing overseas aid, cutting public service broadcasters such as Voice of America, defunding and ostracising UN agencies, flouting international courts and pretending the climate emergency is illusory, Trump inflicts immense harm on the US’s reputation, global influence and soft-power armoury. He is wrecking the rules-based order that Britain views as fundamental. It’s a gift to China, Russia and authoritarians everywhere. As Pentagon spending rockets to $1tn annually, his crude message is unmistakeable: might makes right. Brute strength rules.Trump is a disaster for the west and all in the UK who respect progressive democratic values. His second term will evidently be more globally perilous, destructive and destabilising than his first. In support of universal principles established centuries before anyone heard of him, Britain should steer clear of this walking, talking catastrophe. Rather than hug Trump close, Starmer should keep him at arm’s length for fear of infection.Don’t go to Scotland to see him, Prime Minister. Don’t waste your breath. Instead, start planning for the post-special-relationship era. Make the break. It’s time.

      Simon Tisdall is a Guardian foreign affairs commentator

      Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. More

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      Keir Starmer says good relationship with Donald Trump based on shared family values

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      Keir Starmer has spoken about his good relationship with the US president, Donald Trump, and their shared family values.To mark the first anniversary of the Labour government coming to power on Friday, the prime minister spoke to the BBC podcast Political Thinking and said it was “in the national interest” for the two men to connect.“We are different people and we’ve got different political backgrounds and leanings, but we do have a good relationship and that comes from a number of places,” he said.“I think I do understand what anchors the president, what he really cares about. For both of us, we really care about family and there’s a point of connection there.”In the interview, Starmer said he had a “good personal relationship” with Trump, and revealed that the first time they spoke was after the then-presidential candidate was shot at during a campaign rally in July last year.He said Trump had reciprocated with a personal phone call a few days after Starmer’s brother Nick died on Boxing Day.Addressing recent political turmoil, Starmer said he would always “carry the can” as leader after coming under fire over a climbdown on welfare reforms and that he would “always take responsibility” when asked questions.“When things go well … the leader gets the plaudits, but when things don’t go well, it is really important that the leader carries the can – and that’s what I will always do.”Starmer also backed Rachel Reeves and said she would be chancellor “for a very long time to come”, after she was visibly tearful in the House of Commons.The scenes came after the government U-turned on planned welfare changes that put an almost £5bn hole in the chancellor’s plans.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionReeves said she had been upset by a “personal matter” before prime minister’s questions on Wednesday.Appearing on broadcast media on Friday, one year to the day since the 2024 general election, the home secretary, Yvette Cooper, was asked on BBC Breakfast to score the government out of 10. “I don’t think it is for cabinet ministers to mark themselves and mark their own homework,” she said. More

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      The Donald laps it up as Nato leaders compete to shower him with sycophancy | John Crace

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      Sometimes it pays to be a narcissist. To bend reality to your own worldview. To live almost entirely in the present. Where contradicting yourself is not a problem because two opposing statements can both be true. On the way to Nato you can question article 5. On the way back you can give all the other Nato leaders a patronising pat on the head. And everyone is grateful for it.There again it also helps if you are the most powerful man in the world. Donald Trump is not just tolerated, he is actively indulged. Prime ministers from other countries go out of their way to compete with one another in outright sycophancy. Flattery that started off as contrived now sounds dangerously sincere. Almost as if they genuinely believe it. Thank you Agent Orange for all you have done. We don’t know where we would be without you.And The Donald just laps it up. Feeds on it. At the recent Nato summit he looked like a pig in shit. Living his best life. Whatever sunbed regime he’s on, it’s working for him. If he lost any sleep over his decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, it doesn’t show. Just repeat after Donald: The mission was a complete and utter success and Iran’s programme has been put back decades. If the Pentagon says otherwise, it’s just fake news. Yet again, reality can be what you want it to be.Even when Trump temporarily loses it, he wins. Swearing is generally a no-no for any leader. A sign that you’ve lost control. But when Donald said Israel and Iran didn’t know what the fuck they were doing, he came out of it smelling of roses. Praised for his authenticity. Applauded for saying what the rest of the world is thinking. The Donald can do no wrong. He looks relaxed. God stand up for narcissists.Keir Starmer is no narcissist. And breathe a sigh of relief for that. The UK tried the narcissist route with Boris Johnson and that didn’t end well. Maybe we just aren’t a powerful enough country to get away with a sociopath in charge. Or, heaven forbid, maybe it was a matter of timing. Boris was the right man at the wrong time. That’s a horrible thought. Most of us would quite happily settle for a period of fairly boring politics. Where the government is serving the country rather than the ego of the person in charge. Where even when they are getting things wrong, they are at least trying to do the right thing.But that level of decency comes with a cost. Your psyche does not reward itself with a free pass. You worry about the consequences of your actions. Your toadying to The Donald. You worry about the people dying in Ukraine, Gaza, Israel and Iran. You worry when your domestic policies look like they are falling apart. Wish you had spent more time reassuring backbenchers. Had explained better the trade-offs you were making. Had not been so quick to take a quick cash-saving win by removing benefits from people who can’t wash themselves before going to work.Keir has tried to keep a lid on all this as leaders always do. Pretend that he’s fully in charge of the situation. That everything is going according to plan. But always the tell-tale signs leak out. Starmer’s eyes betray him. They have a deadness to them, the life squeezed out. His face pasty and pallid. A man desperate for a breather, a moment to relax away from the treadmill.Yet always there is one thing more. Another summit, another speech, another bilat, another crisis at home. This wasn’t how he imagined his first year in Downing Street. The pressure and the pace is relentless. The treadmill going ever faster and there’s no getting off. He aches in the places where he used to play.Just hours after returning from The Hague, Keir was giving a keynote speech to the British Chambers of Commerce. It was one that he and they will quickly forget. A routine, box-ticking affair. An annual date, along with the CBI, in any prime minister’s diary. It wasn’t meant to be this way, mind. Starmer knows better than anyone that Labour has to work twice as hard to show that it is the party of business. But this time he couldn’t fake it to make it. He’s no visionary. He can’t access people’s hearts. Only their reason. And that only intermittently.Keir began by thanking the BCC for all it had done for the country. He knew it had been a tough year and he had asked a lot of business, but the good times were round the corner. Possibly. There was the new infrastructure strategy. Now there was also a new trade strategy which sounded very much like the old one. Which was to keep on doing the trade deals we can, as with the partial deals with the EU, US and India, and try to do some new smaller deals with other nations. The applause from the audience was barely audible. They didn’t sound desperately impressed. They can tell when a speaker is out on his feet and is phoning it in.Just over an hour later and Starmer was in the Commons for a statement on the G7 and Nato summits. Here he was much more like his chipper self. Not so much in his opening remarks about how the west was making a dangerous world safer, but in his reply to Kemi Badenoch.The Tory leader just gets worse and worse. Half-witted, sulky and tone deaf. Kemikaze seemed to think the UK should no longer bother to send its prime minister to these international meetings. That Keir had only gone for the craic and to avoid her at prime minister’s questions. As if. Facing Kemi over the dispatch box was his half an hour of R&R in the week.Starmer dismissed her with barely concealed contempt as neither serious nor credible. An am-dram politician. Even the Tories were aghast. Mark Pritchard openly criticised his leader. He spoke for many on his own benches.Kemi had achieved the seemingly impossible. She had revivified a tired prime minister and united both Labour and opposition MPs against her. There is only one politician who looks a genuine leader in the Commons and it is still Starmer. He may have his hands full with a rebellion over the welfare bill, but as long as Kemi remains the leader of the opposition, he has nothing to fear from the Tories. More