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    Four Republican presidential hopefuls to meet for fourth debate in Alabama

    Four White House hopefuls will meet onstage in Alabama for the fourth Republican presidential primary debate, the smallest lineup yet as the window for denting Donald Trump’s lead narrows.Wednesday night’s debate, hosted by the cable network NewsNation at the Moody Music Hall at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, offers one of the last major opportunities for the candidates to make their case to Republican voters before the party’s nominating contest begins next month.The two-hour event will feature Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, and Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina and former United Nations ambassador, who are locked in an increasingly combative scrap to be the second-place alternative to Trump. They will be joined by Chris Christie, a former governor of New Jersey and Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur, who both trail far behind.The three previous debates have so far failed to pull Republican voters away from Trump, who maintains a dominant lead in national and early-state polls with six weeks to go until the Iowa caucuses launch the 2024 GOP nomination calendar.A national Monmouth University poll released on Wednesday before the debate found Trump 40 percentage points ahead of DeSantis, his next closest rival. Nodding to her momentum on the campaign trail, the poll found Haley’s standing rose the most since July, climbing 9 points from 3%.The vast majority of Republican voters said Trump would be their strongest candidate against Joe Biden, including four in 10 Republicans who currently support another candidate. Further complicating their path to the nomination, supporters of Trump’s Republican rivals are divided on whether the remaining candidates should stay in the race or coalesce around a single alternative.“We can parse these numbers until the cows come home, but the results don’t look good for any candidate not named Trump,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.DeSantis, whose campaign has stalled since he entered the race this summer, has staked his campaign’s success on a strong showing in Iowa, which holds its caucuses on 15 January.“We’re going to win Iowa,” DeSantis said during a Sunday interview on NBC’s Meet the Press. “I think it’s going to help propel us to the nomination.”DeSantis earned the high-profile endorsement of Iowa’s Republican governor, Kim Reynolds, and is touting his visits to all of the state’s 99 counties. Yet an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll released at the end of October showed DeSantis tied for second with Haley in Iowa and lagging far behind Trump.Haley is hoping to build on her campaign’s momentum following a series of strong debate performances. In recent weeks, she has closed in on DeSantis, pulling ahead of him in New Hampshire, while winning over Wall Street donors and racking up endorsements from anti-Trump Republicans, including Americans for Prosperity Action, the political network founded by conservative billionaires, Charles and David Koch.Trump, who faces 91 federal charges in four cases, including his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election he lost, has sought to portray himself as the inevitable nominee. A series of recent polls showed him leading Biden in several swing states even as he continues to articulate an increasingly anti-democratic vision for a second term. In an interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night, Trump vowed to only be a dictator “other than day one”.To qualify for the fourth debate, candidates needed at least 6% support either in two national polls or one national poll as well as two polls from states with early nominating contests. They also needed to have at least 80,000 unique donors, up from 70,000 for last month’s debate.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAll candidates must also have signed a pledge to support the eventual Republican nominee, which Trump has refused to do. That means the former president, who is trouncing the field in polling and fundraising, technically would not qualify for the debate, even if he chose to attend.Unlike past debates, Trump is not planning to hold a dueling rally at a location near the debate venue. Instead he will spend the evening at a fundraiser in Florida.Earlier this week, North Dakota governor Doug Burgum, who failed to qualify for the third debate and was on track to miss the fourth, suspended his campaign, denouncing the RNC’s “clubhouse debate requirements” that he said were “nationalizing the primary process”.Burgum’s departure came after Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina abruptly ended his campaign, saying that voters “have been really clear that they’re telling me, ‘Not now, Tim.’”Wednesday’s debate will be hosted by Elizabeth Vargas of NewsNation alongside conservative moderators Megyn Kelly, a former Fox News anchor and Eliana Johnson, editor-in-chief of the Washington Free Beacon. More

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    The 15 questions that will not be asked at the Republican debate | Sidney Blumenthal

    The next Republican debate, like every previous one, is a staged performance simulating a debate. It is in the spirit of a Potemkin Village, the painted wooden facade of a thriving town transported place to place on the orders of Prince Gregory Potemkin to impress his lover Catherine the Great on her grand tour of the new lands of the Russian empire in 1783. The legend of the Potemkin Village gained currency with the publication of the Marquis de Custine’s Russia in 1839. Inspired by the first volume of Alexis de Tocqueville’s Democracy in America, Custine decided he would secure his fame by the parallel feat of traveling through Russia. “The Russians have only names for everything, but there is nothing in reality. Russia is a country of facades,” he wrote. His insight has never faded, from the Romanovs through the Soviet Union down to Putin, where nothing is true.The Potemkin Village of the Republican contest, conducted under the shadow of a tyrant, is more Custine than Tocqueville, more Russia in 1839 than Democracy in America. It is the triumph of scenography above ideology. Revealing the reality behind the theatrical setting is too terrifying to contemplate for the participants. The pasteboard facade of a debate is shuttled into the pasteboard facade of an impeachment.Yet the utter political and moral collapse of the tattered remnants of the Republican party has been the subject of several recently published exposes. McKay Coppins’ Romney: A Reckoning has disclosed the lonely ruminations and regrets of the Republican presidential nominee of 2012. Mitt Romney is unrestrained in his contempt for Trump, his venality and threat to the constitution. Romney’s scorn for Trump is equaled by his disdain for Trump’s cowardly enablers, especially his fellow senators. “I don’t know that I can disrespect someone someone more than JD Vance,” he said. Observing from his unique perch, Romney wrote out for himself a line from William Butler Yeats’s apocalyptic poem, The Second Coming, “The best lack all conviction, while the worst / Are full of passionate intensity.” “A very large portion of my party,” he told Coppins, “really doesn’t believe in the constitution”.Liz Cheney’s new memoir, Oath and Honor, draws the same conclusion of a party jettisoning its principles in the embrace of a despot who would overturn the constitution. Her story describes herself running from Republican leader to leader as a modern-day Paul Revere sounding the alarm on the eve of the January 6 coup to find herself standing alone on Lexington Green. The only patriots joining her are Democrats. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, would-be master of strategy, tells her not to worry, there’s no need to do anything, he wouldn’t support Trump’s impeachment and removal after the coup, that Trump will “fade away”. She mounts her horse again to warn that Trump intends to establish a dictatorship for life.Cheney’s memoir has followed on the heels of Robert Kagan’s dark essay making the same point in the Washington Post. Kagan, like Cheney, a neoconservative turned Never Trumper, wrote, “A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending.” Trump mocked Kagan and his ominous prediction by approvingly posting a link to the article on his Truth Social account, turning forewarning into vindication. Trump retweeted one of his acolytes, Congressman Cory Mills, of Florida, who wrote that Kagan proved the case for Trump: “For months, the radical left and never Trumpers tried to claim President Trump could not win a general election. They tried to launch countless indictments & false allegations to get him off the ballot. Now, it’s obvious the Americans from all walks of life, not from any singular socioeconomic background, are in staunch support of Donald J Trump.”Then there has been the publication of Tim Alberta’s book on the moral corruption of the evangelical right, The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory: American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism. Alberta, an evangelical himself, disillusioned by the movement’s turn to Trump, whom he calls a “lecherous, impenitent scoundrel”, chronicles its leaders’ sinful descent to idol-worshipping Trump as their “mercenary” redemptive Christ. It does not matter that Trump, as Alberta reports, considers “these so-called Christians” as “some real pieces of shit”. Christian nationalism is now completed with its fusion with Trump. Nothing illustrates Alberta’s shudder more than the rise of Mike Johnson, evangelical true believer and Trump coup plotter, to become speaker of the House.So far, the decadent ruination of the Republican party, the threat to the constitution and Trump’s brazen plans for a dictatorship have not been seen fit to discuss as the centerpiece of any Republican debate. Role-playing is the essence of sustaining the suspension of disbelief. The mise en scene of a weighty event is physically replicated to complete the picture – the podiums, the long desk, the patriotic backdrop – the Potemkin Village. But the pretense only further contributes to the flattening of the party that has been trampled by the despot in waiting.This particular charade of a debate has most recently taken the form of Nikki Haley’s media-driven star turn as an alternative to Donald Trump. Having won the support of Charles Koch, the surviving Koch brother, she has, in the common parlance, “momentum”. But, a few weeks ago, before wandering Republican donors inflated the Haley boomlet, an influential Republican in Washington touted to me anticipation of her “momentum”. Haley’s backers would concentrate behind her, he explained, but she would lose; they would mostly oppose Trump, who he hoped would lose; and then they would reclaim the party. Haley is a vehicle for keeping hope alive. This scenario imagines that there is another Republican party lying beyond the mists, the world of the past, still intact, only waiting to be reclaimed. Haley is their unlikely figure of restoration, hardly carrying a nostalgic impression, but she is the final thin reed left to grasp, at least for a moment. As Liz Cheney has written in her memoir, that party is gone. Her encounter with McConnell, and his certainty that Trump would “fade”, proves both her point and that the assumptions of a return to normalcy is illusory. How are things in Glocca Morra?Haley exists in a strange bubble, allowed to float unobstructed, poked at by no one except hapless Ron DeSantis, as she drifts toward her ending foretold by TS Eliot, “not with a bang, but a whimper”. Her candidacy will show once again why Trump strides like a colossus over the Republicans. Her inherent unpopularity has yet to be explored. To the extent she stands for the old conservatism, she is discreditable with the Trump base. His unabashed white supremacist national socialism always beats unvarnished laissez-faire. Her position in favor of what is euphemistically called “entitlement reform” of social security and Medicare is exactly why working-class Republicans adhere to Trump and not to traditional Republicans. “I recognize that social security and Medicare are the last thing the political class wants to talk about,” she has said. “Any candidate who refuses to address them should be disqualified. They’ll take your vote and leave you broke.” She has a record of repeatedly calling for the repeal of Obamacare. “We have fought Obamacare in South Carolina as much as we possibly could,” she has said. And, recently, she added, “It’s not about one small policy of, you know, Affordable Care Act. It’s about fixing the entire healthcare system.” She also had endorsed a series of rightwing nostrums such as “term limits” to fire all federal civil servants after five years (air traffic controllers, food inspectors, scientists?), defunding the Internal Revenue Service, and forcing congressional votes on every single federal rule and regulation (3,000 to 4,500 a year).Haley’s balloon would puncture if and when the public ever plays attention to her draconian conservatism. In the meantime, she has tried to edge to the right of Trump into RFK Jr territory by giving credence to wild anti-vaxxer conspiracy theories. “You took people’s rights away in the process,” she said, about the federal government funding of Covid-19 vaccine development. “You said, ‘Oh, we have all these vaccines. Make people get it.”In the coming debate, Megyn Kelly, the former Fox News host and NBC personality, diving into career vertigo, but lately recovered as a podcaster and YouTuber, is the more relevant figure than the pretenders who are to be her props. Her comeback provides greater drama and broader audience appeal than Haley’s remote chance.In the posturing of seriousness on the part of the questioners, it seems unlikely that the debate will focus on the urgency raised by Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney, Robert Kagan and Tim Alberta. Nonetheless, here are a few questions that Megyn Kelly, et al, might pose:*Donald Trump has said Gen Mark Milley, former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, should be tried and executed for treason. Do you agree?*Explain why you would support as a presidential nominee someone who a judge has stated is a rapist “as many people commonly understand the word ‘rape’”.*Explain why you would support for president a financial fraudster convicted of grossly lying on his bank loans.*Do you agree with Donald Trump’s assessment of his vice-president, Mike Pence, for fulfilling his constitutional duty to preside over the counting of the electoral college votes that he was a “pussy?”*Do you agree with Donald Trump, who in speaking about the 2020 election, has said: “A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution.”*Do you agree with Donald Trump that Putin after his invasion of Ukraine was “genius” and “savvy”?*Should the Department of Justice drop its indictments of Donald Trump for alleged criminal violations of federal laws? If yes, why, and if not, why not?*In your view, does Donald Trump have the right to pardon himself for any crimes for which he is being prosecuted?*Can a person found guilty of a sexual assault be allowed to hold federal office? Should he?*Can a person who has been involved in more than one bankruptcy case be allowed a role in developing or implementing the federal budget? Should he?*Is section 3 of the US constitution’s 14th amendment, which prohibits those involved in insurrection against the United States from holding federal office, self-executing?*Can state legislatures replace a state electorate’s choice for president with their own pick under any circumstance?*Are the January 6 insurrectionists who have been convicted of violent assault of police officers and are now serving prison sentences being held as hostages who should be pardoned?*Do you agree with this statement? “If I happen to be president and I see somebody who’s doing well and beating me very badly, I say, ‘Go down and indict them.’ They’d be out of business. They’d be out of the election.”*Finally, in honor of the House speaker, creationist Mike Johnson, how old is the Earth?
    Sidney Blumenthal, former senior adviser to President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, has published three books of a projected five-volume political life of Abraham Lincoln: A Self-Made Man, Wrestling With His Angel and All the Powers of Earth More

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    Nikki Haley wins Koch endorsement for Republican presidential nomination

    The influential rightwing US billionaire Charles Koch endorsed Nikki Haley for the Republican presidential nomination, choosing the former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador over Donald Trump, the clear frontrunner, and Ron DeSantis, the hard-right Florida governor.“The moment we face requires a tested leader with the governing judgment and policy experience to pull our nation back from the brink,” Emily Seidel, senior adviser to Americans for Prosperity Action, the political arm of the Koch network, wrote in a memo first reported by the New York Times.“Nikki Haley is that leader.”Trump is the clear leader in polling, nationally and in battleground states. But Haley has climbed into second, passing DeSantis with assured debate-stage performances (in contests Trump skipped) and consequent fundraising success.In her memo, Seidel lamented recent Republican electoral defeats widely seen to be fueled by Trumpist extremism and by the conservative movement as a whole on issues prominently including threats to abortion rights.“Republicans have been nominating bad candidates who are going against America’s core principles [a]nd voters are rejecting them,” the Americans for Prosperity memo said.But Seidel also accused Democrats of “responding with extreme policies that also cut against core American principles” and said voters wanted to “move on” from a political era represented by Trump and Joe Biden, who contested the 2020 election.Polls do show that more Americans think Biden is too old for a second Oval Office term, at 81, than think the same about Trump, who is 77.Seidel wrote, “Our internal polling confirms what our activists are hearing and seeing from voters in the early primary states: Nikki Haley is in the best position to defeat Donald Trump in the primaries.“Between her surging to second place in the polls since August and being well-positioned among supporters of the other candidates, she is in a strong position to gather more support.“In addition, our internal polling consistently shows that Nikki Haley is by far the strongest candidate Republicans could put up against Joe Biden in a general election – winning every key battleground state and up nationally by nearly 10 points.“While our polling shows Donald Trump loses to Joe Biden, Nikki Haley outperforms Trump by eight to 14 points in the key presidential battleground states.”Haley, Seidel said, could also “boost [Republican] candidates up and down the ballot, winning the key independent and moderate voters that Trump has no chance to win”.The Koch network was not expected to back Trump, having indicated its wish for a new candidate in a similar memo earlier this year.On Tuesday, a Trump spokesperson called Americans for Prosperity “the political arm of the China First, America Last movement”, which was spending “shady money [and choosing] to endorse a pro-China, open borders, and globalist candidate in Nikki ‘Birdbrain’ Haley”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionHaley was appointed to her former UN role by Trump. The 51-year-old said she was “honoured to have the support of Americans for Prosperity Action, including its millions of grassroots members all across the country … We have a country to save.”A DeSantis spokesperson said the Koch endorsement showed the conservative “establishment … lining up behind a moderate who has no mathematical pathway of defeating the former president.“Every dollar spent on Nikki Haley’s candidacy should be reported as an in-kind [contribution] to the Trump campaign. No one has a stronger record of beating the establishment than Ron DeSantis, and this time will be no different.”Among commentators, Norman Ornstein, an emeritus scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, issued a warning over claims that Haley is a conservative moderate.“Perennial memo to reporters and editors: any reference to Nikki Haley as a ‘moderate’ is journalistic malpractice,” Ornstein wrote. “National abortion ban. Slash social security and Medicare. Blow up the federal workforce. Helluva platform.”But Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic pollster, suggested that the Koch network may not be throwing its endorsement away.Offering “a reminder to everyone writing about Nikki Haley today”, Rosenberg said: “Trump is only at 60% in the primary now. 40% of Republicans are not currently supporting him. This is a big number.“Trump is under 50% in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina [the first three states to vote]. A majority of Republicans in these early states are not supporting him.” More

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    We have zombie Republican presidential candidates, enabled by an undead media | Sidney Blumenthal

    In taking the loyalty oath to support the party nominee in order to be permitted to participate in debates, the Republican candidates have transformed themselves into zombies. For one brief shining moment they may have imagined that they would edge out Donald Trump by offering themselves as more electable. But electability is a transient quality, often glittering like fool’s gold. Their unique selling proposition was that they did not carry his wagon train of baggage. Their logic was not more complicated than that. They promised that electability would be a pragmatic turn to reality. But the appeal of a rational idea that seeks a rational response immediately separated them from the Trump base. With Trump leading in the polls, and the latest poll showing him momentarily ahead of President Biden in key swing states, the electability gambit has evaporated on the ground of its premise.Beyond the misplaced gamble on evanescent electability, accepting that Trump’s negatives might be a burden in a general election would crack the entire edifice of his mythology. If it were true, it would mean that the whole Trump storyline the base has embraced is false. From his branding in The Apprentice as a master of the universe to the big lie, the greatest con in American history would collapse. Rejecting the fable would demand of his followers that they recognize their own fallibility and gullibility. But they mirror their hero in associating self-reflection as a trait of their cultural elite enemies. To shake their spell, they would have to undergo a reversal of the plot of the early film classic of humans turned into zombies, Invasion of the Body Snatchers.But the Republican party would be the last place to conduct intensive deprogramming of Republicans. Instead, its enchanted base is doubling down in intensity. When the first indictment against Trump came down in New York in the campaign fraud case of paying hush money to a porn star, Trump’s believers rallied to him as savior and martyr, his polls shot up and the electability ploy dissolved into thin air. His Republican opponents were left with their hands raised in a salute to whoever the nominee would be, which would be Trump. They were the living dead.The media participating in the debates have presented themselves as though they are performing a dignified and necessary role in the democratic process as it has always been done. But the forms are drained of substance. The media insistence on behaving normally is their state of denial. Just as the candidates pretend they are viable, the media pretends they are interviewing live candidates. The illusory horserace is driven round the track with illusory questions about the horserace. Sometimes the zombie candidates devour each other on stage – Nikki Haley aptly referring to Vivek Ramaswamy as “scum” – but that bit of friction has no frisson because the undead cannot be reanimated.The debates have no purpose other than as a harbinger of the Republican zombie apocalypse. Already some of the prescient big-money Republican donors who had previously backed Trump, but transferred their cash in rounds of roulette first to Ron DeSantis, then to Tim Scott, and now to Haley, have begun placing their chips on Trump again.What the zombie candidates can never discuss is why they are dead. Their decayed state makes it impossible for them to examine the hex that has cast them into their twilight. They cannot explain why Trump dominates their party, transfixed it into a cult of personality, how they have all enabled him, and his ambitions for a dictatorship.Nor can they discuss Trump’s influence in the triumph of theocratic reactionary leadership among the House Republicans, and the unholy alliance with evangelicals by which the supposedly sacred submits to the rule of the profane. Of course, the media questioners did not discourteously ask the candidates whether they agreed with the federal judge presiding over the E Jean Carroll defamation case, Lewis Kaplan, who stated as obiter dicta from the bench that Trump is a rapist “as many people commonly understand the word ‘rape’.” Trump was found guilty of sexually assaulting and defaming Carroll, and ordered to pay $5m. Then, Trump defamed her again. His second trial will begin on 15 January 2024, the same day as the Iowa caucuses.The media have become zombies by a different process than the candidates. By acting on the false premise that the Republican candidates are not zombies they inevitably become zombies. Nothing is normal, but simulating the idea that the campaign is normal is both to inhabit a fantasy and empower the abnormal. Falling back on the familiar horserace narrative in which they are the bookies, they unsuspectingly enter the Trump netherworld. Their stupefied questions about winning and losing cannot restore the lost world. They treat the candidates as hopefuls, ignoring the motto at the entrance: Abandon all hope.The media heavily rely on questions and answers produced by pollsters. Odds-making is offered as shrewd analysis. Repeating ever-changeable poll numbers as static empirical facts that project the future as all things being equal is the lowest and most banal surrogate for objectivity, the most common journalistic evasion of the higher duty of objectivity. It is the equivalent of reporting a poll in Weimar Germany for the July 1932 federal elections (National Socialist Workers’ party at 37%, etc), but avoiding the issue at stake of the survival of democracy, and after the election describing the result in terms of “winners and losers”.How should an election that might end democracy be understood?But why just make a captious reference to Germany, however pertinent the point? Our history provides dangerous precedent enough. The United States itself faced an election over the fate of democracy in 1860. The refusal to accept the election of Abraham Lincoln – the rejection of democracy – resulted in the civil war. His platform to prevent the extension of slavery to the territories was grasped by all sides as about the ultimate disposition of political power. A conservative supreme court attempted pre-emptively to impose a solution to the crisis in the Dred Scott decision of 1857 to advantage the south and crush the new Republican party through an originalist justification that the founders believed that black people were “beings of an inferior order, so far inferior, that they had no rights which the white man was bound to respect”.To which Lincoln replied in his Cooper Union speech on 27 February 1860, speaking as if directly to the gathering forces of secession: “Under all these circumstances, do you really feel yourselves justified to break up this Government unless such a court decision as yours is, shall be at once submitted to as a conclusive and final rule of political action? But you will not abide the election of a Republican president! In that supposed event, you say, you will destroy the Union; and then, you say, the great crime of having destroyed it will be upon us! That is cool. A highwayman holds a pistol to my ear, and mutters through his teeth, ‘Stand and deliver, or I shall kill you, and then you will be a murderer!’ To be sure, what the robber demanded of me – my money – was my own; and I had a clear right to keep it; but it was no more my own than my vote is my own; and the threat of death to me, to extort my money, and the threat of destruction to the Union, to extort my vote, can scarcely be distinguished in principle.”Approaching the 1860 election, the stakes for democracy were daily discussed in the press, north and south, east and west. “How stands the case?” editorialized the New York Herald, the largest circulation newspaper in the country, opposed then to Lincoln. “The question, therefore, of Union or Disunion, will have to be settled with Lincoln’s election,” it wrote. The paper explained that if his “administration go on smoothly”, six free states would join the Union, creating majorities in the Senate and the House, and breaking the hold of minority rule. “The simple truth is, that in submitting to Lincoln’s election, the south must be content to prepare deliberately for the abolition of slavery from Delaware to Texas. This is exactly what this thing means.”So, what is the simple truth exactly about what this election means? Since none of the Republican zombie candidates have a ghost of a chance, media questions about how the undead might get ahead only underscore both their and the candidates’ hollowness. Horserace questions are beating a dead horse. Such questions derive from a combination of lazy complacency and fear of offending that renders the media jockeys that flog them into zombies themselves.Those questions are the media contribution to avoiding the fundamental and obvious stakes in this election: the character of the Trump Republican party, its antipathy to democracy, the rise of authoritarianism and theocracy, the criminality of the prospective nominee, the conservative phalanx on the supreme court stamping the rightwing agenda on the country, the theocratic predilections of the new speaker of the House, second in the line of succession to be president, and the utter dysfunctionality of the Republican House, which is subject to Trump’s sway.Footnote: after his election as speaker, Mike Johnson adjourned the House as a federal government shutdown looms to travel abroad to confer with rightwing groups at what was dubbed the World Freedom Initiative, in a trip co-sponsored by the Danube Institute, a foundation financed by the anti-democratic government of Hungary sympathetic to Putin, and included the Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán’s political director as well as far-right figures from across Europe, one of them convicted in France of hate speech. The conference’s events included segments on “The Future of [the] Right-Wing Alliance” and “Trump’s 2016 [Campaign Managers’] Secrets, Social Media and Governmental Interference”.In his first chess move as speaker, Johnson has sought to separate aid to Israel from that to Ukraine, but to tie the Israel aid to slashing the budget of the Internal Revenue Service – a poison-pill proposal unacceptable to the Biden administration and the great majority of the Senate including most Republicans. The consequences of Johnson’s crackpot foray into policy is that aid to both Israel and Ukraine has been stalled. But the new speaker’s proposal was not raised in the debate by the media questioners. Nor did they once mention the name Mike Johnson.The Republican debate on 9 November occurred after extensive reportage of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, which lays out an anti-democratic plan to turn the US government into an authoritarian state as Trump’s program for a second term. On 25 April, the New York Times reported of the plan to replace the career civil service – “snakes” and “traitors”, according to Trump – with Trump-vetted far-right appointees in the Project 2025 database.On 27 July, the Times reported how Trump and his allies plan to end the independence of the justice department and all other federal agencies. “And he plans to scour the intelligence agencies, the state department and the defense bureaucracies to remove officials he has vilified as ‘the sick political class that hates our country’.”On 7 August, the Times reported Project 2025’s plan to end environmental regulation, all green energy programs and any mention of climate change. On 1 November, the Times reported the plan to purge the justice department and replace its lawyers with Trump loyalists, including those who supported the coup.The Washington Post reported on 6 November on the Trump plan “for using the federal government to punish critics and opponents should he win a second term, with the former president naming individuals he wants to investigate or prosecute and his associates drafting plans to potentially invoke the Insurrection Act on his first day in office to allow him to deploy the military against civil demonstrations.”I reported in the Guardian on 7 November on the Heritage Foundation’s support for Senator Tommy Tuberville’s blockade against military promotions unless abortion services are denied to women in the service in order to replace the “woke” officer corps.Yet the media interlocutors of the Republican debate asked not a single question about any aspect of the Project 2025 plan to turn the federal government from top to bottom into Trump’s personal tool and abrogate civil liberties. As it happened, the day after the debate, Trump answered that question without prompting: “If I happen to be president,” he said, “and I see somebody who’s doing well and beating me very badly, I say, ‘Go down and indict them.’ They’d be out of business. They’d be out of the election.”Lester Holt, the anchor of NBC Nightly News, opened the debate with this question: “Speak to Republican voters who are supporting Donald Trump. Why should you and not him be the Republican nominee to face Joe Biden a year from now?”The problem with that question was that it embodies journalistic lethargy barely tolerable in pre-Trump elections but glaringly inadequate in this one. The question was not an attempt to communicate or elicit vital information, but instead invited self-serving triteness. Beginning the debate with that question conveyed an implicit point of view that this campaign and election is an ordinary contest of contending opinions taking place within democratic norms. Negligence in asking straightforward questions about Trump’s brazen intent to establish a dictatorial regime to replace constitutional government served as a prophylactic for the absent but overshadowing presence.The ghost at the debate, quitting from lack of funds and abysmal polls, was the former vice-president, Mike Pence. “Hang Mike Pence!” No one, moderators or candidates, saw fit to acknowledge his existence. He may be spectral for now, but he is not a zombie. He will likely reappear very much alive as a central witness in Trump’s trial starting in March 2024 in the Washington DC district court. He is not forgotten by Jack Smith.Three days before the debate, special prosecutor Jack Smith filed a motion entitled “Government’s Opposition to Defendant’s Motion to Strike Inflammatory Allegations from the Indictment”. In it, he wrote: “Indeed, that day was the culmination of the defendant’s criminal conspiracies to overturn the legitimate results of the presidential election, when the defendant directed a large and angry crowd – one that he had summoned to Washington DC, and fueled with knowingly false claims of election fraud – to the Capitol to obstruct the congressional certification proceeding. When his supporters did so, including through violence, the defendant did not try to stop them; instead, he encouraged them and attempted to leverage their actions by further obstructing the certification.”Neither Jack Smith nor his latest or any filing were raised by the moderators in the debate. Other words that went unsaid were “trial”, “indictment” and “January 6”.Trump’s portentous invisibility was reinforced by the media ignoring his statements. Kristen Welker, the moderator of Meet the Press, asked each candidate where they stood on funding for Ukraine. But since the candidates have become zombies, the only valuable query would be to probe their views about Trump’s to gauge the degree of absolute mindlessness of their loyalty oath to him.Eleven days before the debate, on 29 October, Trump told a story about how he rebuked Nato leaders that if they did not pay more the US would not honor its treaty obligation to defend the alliance. “We’re not going to protect you any longer,” Trump said he had boasted. “The head of a country stood up, said, ‘Does that mean if Russia attacks my country, you will not be there?’”“That’s right, that’s what it means,” Trump said. “I will not protect you.”Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, stated in May of 2022 that Trump “may well have withdrawn from Nato” in a second term and that Putin “was waiting for that”. Trump’s former chief of staff, the retired general John Kelly, stated that “one of the most difficult tasks he faced with Trump was trying to stop him from pulling out of Nato”, according to the New York Times reporter Michael Schmidt. But there was no follow-up question to ask the candidates about Trump’s evident intention to wreck the western alliance in Putin’s obvious interest.Welker moved on to an abortion question, framed on the implicit terms that the Republican problem with the issue was one of messaging, reducing it to a matter of positioning, a question again of winning and losing. “Abortion rights supporters saw victories in Ohio and Virginia following earlier wins in states like Kansas and Kentucky. Governor DeSantis, first to you. How do you see the path forward for Republicans on this issue?” The supreme court went unmentioned.The question avoided everything that surrounded the high court’s decision in Dobbs overturning a half-century women’s right. Did Clarence Thomas, John Roberts, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, and Amy Coney Barrett commit perjury in their Senate confirmation hearings when they stated under oath that they believed in the judicial doctrine of stare decisis, of deference to long-established precedent, and as a result would retain Roe v Wade? Sonia Sotomayor has said about Dobbs: “Will this institution survive the stench that this creates in the public perception that the constitution and its reading are just political acts? I don’t see how it is possible.”Her question went unasked. Nor were there questions about the ethical crisis enveloping the supreme court, with revelations of luxury gifts lavished on conservative justices by wealthy interested patrons. Nor was Senator Sheldon Whitehouse’s herculean effort to bring the court under the ethics standards of the rest of the federal judiciary mentioned. Under intense public pressure, the court issued its first ethics guidelines four days after the debate, with no mechanisms for enforcement, leaving the matter to each individual justice: the Clarence Thomas honor code. The media moderators missed their opportunity – and their responsibility.The zombie candidates will all, one by one, decompose into a pile of dust and be swept into the proverbial dustbin of history. Senator Tim Scott, after raising more than $13m, and his associated political action committee millions more, supported by less than 3% of Republican voters, dropped out after the debate. When he departed, he left no trace of his prior existence. And soon enough there will be none, except Trump.The sleepwalking media in the debate performed a pantomime made up of archaic conventional gestures. But their willful obliviousness obscures the present danger posed by Trump’s fever dreams of dictatorship.
    Sidney Blumenthal is the author of The Permanent Campaign, published in 1980, and All the Power of the Earth: The Political Life of Abraham Lincoln, 1856-1860, the third of a projected five volumes. He is the former assistant and senior adviser to President Bill Clinton and senior adviser to Hillary Clinton More

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    The Republican presidential debate was a televised temper tantrum | Moira Donegan

    Because I did something terrible in a past life and have to be punished for it in this one, on Wednesday night I watched the Republican presidential debate. It was the third in a series of televised temper tantrums by a dwindling field of eligible candidates, all pretending that there is a meaningful contest for the Republican presidential nomination and that any of them have the slightest chance of winning it.In the past, these events have ranged from the chaotic to the deranged, as characters like Tim Scott put a smiling, chipper, aw-shucks sheen on a lurid vision of enforced male supremacy, Ron DeSantis publicly indulges wild fantasies about sending American soldiers to conduct summary executions of Mexican drug cartel leaders on the soil of a sovereign foreign nation, and Chris Christie puts on a poor imitation of someone who believes in his own relevance.And like the past debates, there was plenty of rancor and personal barbs on Wednesday night, plenty of morbid daydreaming about future regimes of social control, and plenty of fact-free declarations about the supposed causes of America’s plights. There was yelling, and there were insults. Somehow, the whole thing still managed to be incredibly tedious.Donald Trump, the man who will be the Republican nominee unless he dies before next November, was not on stage. The candidates did their usual dance of trying not to attack Trump or alienate his base – which meant, in effect, that none of them could make much of a case for themselves. Nikki Haley, once a member of Trump’s cabinet, somewhat weakly suggested that Trump was not the right candidate “for now”. Even Chris Christie, whose candidacy is largely seen as a kamikaze mission meant to hurt Trump rather than a serious bid for office, could barely manage to point out that the frontrunner’s legal problems – he faces 91 felony charges – would probably distract him from the duties of office.For all of the five contenders on stage – Haley, Christie, DeSantis, Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy – their very candidacy suggests a discomfort with Trump: if they really thought he was the best guy for the job, they wouldn’t be running. But a taboo on criticizing Trump remains the one constant that unites the fractious, dysfunctional and internally chaotic Republican party, the one thing that all of them know it would end their political careers to do. They couldn’t go after Trump. So they went after each other.It would be wrong to say that the candidates’ attacks on one another were exactly ideologically driven. As they gave rambling, euphemism-laden, largely dishonest answers to a series of policy questions, it was hard to discern anything like a coherent policy orientation from any of them – save for Haley, who as in every debate emphasized her foreign policy credentials and seemed interested in reviving some early-century neoconservative positions about the efficacy and usefulness of American foreign intervention.Others wandered and waffled in their policy prescriptions: when they were asked a question that confused or frustrated them, as happened frequently, both the Florida governor DeSantis and South Carolina senator Tim Scott would pivot to bizarre non-sequiturs about closing the southern border. Ramaswamy pushed an isolationist, “America-first” approach, but nevertheless echoed calls by DeSantis to use the military to discipline southern border immigration. (Ramaswamy, it should be noted, did distinguish himself by also cautioning about crime and immigration at the Canadian border. “Build both walls,” he said.)Tim Scott, a Christian conservative pitching his candidacy as a return to traditional social hierarchies, “faith-based morals” and compassion, called for a military strike on Iran. They decried protests in support of Palestinian human rights as “pro-Hamas” and vowed to deport foreign students who participated, and to cut off the funding for any college or university that did not sufficiently suppress pro-Palestinian speech. They seemed united in encouraging Israel to take a genocidal, eliminationist approach to Palestinians in Gaza, with DeSantis telling Benjamin Netanyahu to “finish the job”, Haley instructing him to “finish them”, and Ramaswamy offering a disturbing fantasy about severed Palestinian heads being displayed on spikes. The candidates also largely agreed, as it happened, that they would cut Medicare and social security benefits. They set about arguing with each other about how much.The biggest rivalry of the night was between a pair who are emerging as recurring antagonists in these debates: Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy. The pair have opposing visions of foreign policy, with Haley calling for greater engagement and intervention abroad and Ramaswamy serving as a conduit for the Republican party’s post-2016 return to nativist isolationism. But they also represent two distinct career paths for Republican politicians. Haley’s rabid, sadistic conservatism is the result of an old-fashioned kind of political vetting – a long career of political ascent, coupled with an affect of credentialed competence. Ramaswamy, by contrast, is a public buffoon, someone with no political experience who has gained his spot on the debate stage with provocative, hateful, algorithmically boosted social media content of outlandish public quackery.Perhaps it’s fitting, then, that the two had their most pointed clash over TikTok. The pair had been fighting all night: Ramaswamy made a misogynist remark calling Haley “Dick Cheney in three-inch heels”. Haley shot back that her shoes were five-inch heels, and quipped, somewhat nonsensically, that she wore them “for ammunition”. But they fought most bitterly when moderators asked the candidates if they would ban TikTok, the social media app that has become a bete noire on the right. Ramaswamy jumped in to point out that Haley had criticized him for campaigning on TikTok, even though her adult daughter also used the app – he suggested that Haley was not exercising adequate control over her family. Haley told him to leave her daughter out of it, and called him scum.It was a mistake, and it was also, perhaps, one of the more relatable moments for Nikki Haley, a politician so stuffy and rehearsed that one wonders if she has ever had a thought that does not occur to her in a pollster’s voice. Ramaswamy is scum: he’s self-interested and cynical, indifferent to truth, with a black hole of ambition in the place where other people might have a soul. She was right to be angry. But public expressions of anger rarely serve women.But what might have been most conspicuous about the debate was what was largely absent from it: for more than an hour and a half, the moderators did not ask about abortion, even though the issue has dominated American electoral politics up and down the ballot for nearly a year and a half. Anger over the overturning of Roe v Wade has become an abiding motivator for voters, with the issue persisting in relevance long after most pundits thought it would fade from national attention, and it is driving unlikely wins for Democratic candidates and their priorities. Abortion had delivered electoral wins for Democrats just on Tuesday, when the issue drove voters to the polls nationwide. Abortion proved to be a decisive issue not only in Ohio, where an abortion rights amendment to the state constitution was ratified by a wide margin, but also played a pivotal role in races in Virginia, Kentucky and Pennsylvania.When the moderators finally asked about “the way forward” on abortion, in their last question of the night, the candidates mostly hemmed and hawed. Some backtracked or hedged their anti-choice stances; others doubled down. They could not deliver a real answer for the same reasons they could not attack Donald Trump: neither stating their real positions against abortion or admitting that the issue has become a political albatross for the Republican party would be viable paths for their continued careers. They’re not ready to make a real argument on the issue to the American people. Luckily for them, I suppose, none of them will have to.
    Moira Donegan is a Guardian US columnist More

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    Support for Israel and verbal sparring propel fiery third Republican debate

    The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and other foreign policy issues dominated Wednesday’s fiery third debate of Republican presidential hopefuls in Miami. Candidates pledged wholehearted support for Israel’s military response following last month’s Hamas attacks, and clashed over Ukraine, China and immigration.The debate, minus Donald Trump, the runaway favorite for the party’s 2024 nomination who was hosting his own private rally elsewhere in the area, was a more bitter affair than its predecessors in Wisconsin and California. Lively verbal sparring sometimes regressed into insults, with Nikki Haley at one point calling one of her rivals “scum”.The candidates also grappled over immigration, the devastatingly bad night for Republicans in Tuesday’s elections, and the party’s staunchly anti-abortion stance on abortion that analysts say was the reason.Discussion over Israel’s actions in Gaza were, however, most prominent.“I will be telling Bibi [Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu] to finish the job once and for all with these butchers Hamas. They’re terrorists. They’re massacring innocent people. They would wipe every Jew off the globe if they could,” Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, said.Haley, a former ambassador to the United Nations, was equally forthright. “The first thing I said to him when it happened was, ‘finish them’. They have to eliminate Hamas, [we have to] support Israel with whatever they need whenever they need it, and three, make sure we bring our hostages home.”DeSantis took credit for chartering flights to rescue stranded Americans in Israel, but overreached by claiming “there could have been more hostages, if we hadn’t acted”. The DeSantis flights, which some have criticized as a de facto foreign policy, took place after Hamas took about 240 hostages on 7 October.Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has been criticized for controversial racial comments, took potshots at each other. Haley’s policies, Ramaswamy said, fueled war, and in a reference to a former vice-president called her “Dick Cheney in three-inch heels”.“I wear five-inch heels, and don’t wear them unless you can run on them,” she shot straight back. “I wear heels not for a fashion statement – they’re for ammunition.”A further unpleasant exchange between the two came in a discussion about the Chinese social media platform TikTok. “In the last debate, she made fun of me for actually joining TikTok while her own daughter was actually using the app for a long time, so you might want to take care of your family first,” Ramaswamy sniped.“Leave my daughter out of your mouth,” Haley interjected. “You are just scum.”Haley performed well in the first two debates, and has enjoyed a recent surge in popularity. She had painted DeSantis as an isolationist at a time when, she said, the US needed to work with global partners, and their feud continued Wednesday with bickering over China, each accusing the other of operating policies favorable to one of America’s foes.But the pair were united in tearing strategically into the absent the former president, who they trail by a significant margin in the race for the nomination. Trump, DeSantis said, “owes it to you to be on this stage”.“He said Republicans were gonna get tired of winning. Well, we saw it last night: I’m sick of Republicans losing,” DeSantis said, referring to Tuesday’s Democratic electoral successes in Kentucky and Virginia.Haley said: “I think he was the right president at the right time. I don’t think he’s the right president now. I think that he put us a trillion dollars in debt and our kids are never gonna forgive us for that. I think the fact that he used to be right on Ukraine and foreign issues – now he’s getting weak in the knees and trying to be friendly again.”The South Carolina senator Tim Scott, who is trailing in the polls, was asked how he would assist Ukraine in its battle against Russia, but pivoted to criticizing the Biden administration’s border policies. He warned that “terrorist cells” were entering the country from Mexico.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThen he said: “The American people are frustrated that they do not have a president who reminds us and tells us where’s the accountability. Where are those dollars? How are those dollars being spent? We need those answers for us to continue to see the support for Ukraine.”Joe Biden has asked Congress for $106bn for Ukraine and Israel aid.Scott said he wanted to see the southern US border closed to immigrants, Ramaswamy said he would build a wall there and at the northern border with Canada, while DeSantis repeated his previous promise to send troops to the border and shoot drug smugglers “stone-cold dead”.Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor, spoke of a need to deter China from invading Taiwan as the debate moved to other foreign policy topics. “We need to go straight to our nuclear submarine program, and we need to increase it drastically,” he said.Christie weighed in on the TikTok debate, saying the platform was “not only spyware – it is polluting the minds of American young people all throughout this country, and they’re doing it intentionally”. As president, he said, he would ban it.Regarding abortion, which was behind many of the Republican losses on Tuesday, Haley expounded a softer position than other candidates that might yet resonate with voters. “As much as I’m pro-life, I don’t judge anyone for being pro-choice, and I don’t want them to judge me for being pro-life,” she said.Trump, meanwhile, says he is so far ahead in the race for the nomination, more than 44 points, according to Real Clear Politics (RCP), as to make debate meaningless. In campaign messaging on Tuesday, he called it “a battle of losers”.While Trump’s own candidacy is mired in legal troubles that could yet derail him, his remaining rivals are not even close. Scott, Christie and Ramaswamy are all polling in the low single digits, leaving DeSantis and Haley, themselves only at 13% and 9%, per RCP, as the most viable alternatives.There will be one more Republican debate, in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, on 6 December, before the 2024 primaries begin with the Iowa caucuses on 15 January.The field, already down to five in Miami after the withdrawal of former vice-president Mike Pence and non-qualification of North Dakota governor Doug Burgum, could be further reduced by then. And after Wednesday’s debate concluded, a campaign adviser said Trump would also not be present in Alabama. More

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    Calls to ‘finish’ Hamas and ‘you’re just scum’: key Republican debate takeaways

    The third Republican debate was held in Miami on Wednesday, with frontrunner Donald Trump once again foregoing the debate for his own rally nearby.The pool has dwindled since the last debate, and Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott and Chris Christie seemed to be more serious and focused this time around as they answered questions on the Israel-Hamas war, immigration, abortion and the federal budget. Even so, the debate had moments where it devolved into a shouting match, with petty barbs and personal attacks.Here are the main things to know about the debate.1. The Israel-Hamas war was top of mind – and the rhetoric turned uglyThe candidates largely tried to one-up each other on their unequivocal support for Israel and its military response to the Hamas attacks on October 7, with the exception of Vivek Ramaswamy, who said the US should not be as actively involved in regional wars.“The first thing I said when it happened was, I said, finish them. Finish them,” Haley said about Hamas, touting her former position as special envoy to the United Nations under Donald Trump. DeSantis, meanwhile, focused on the flights he chartered for Floridians in Israel before overstating his aid to the Israeli government.When asked about how the impact of the war was playing out on college campuses in the US, however, DeSantis seemingly denied the existence of Islamophobia, and said he would quash some pro-Palestine student groups.The candidates did not address the estimated 10,000 Palestinian civilians killed by Israel’s strikes and its ground invasion in Gaza.2. After Republican election losses, candidates tried to regain ground, especially on abortionThe day before the debate, the Republican party saw major losses across the country, from the Virginia state legislature to Kentucky’s governorship. The candidates addressed that head on.“We’ve become a party of losers,” Ramaswamy said in his opening statements. “We got trounced last night in 2023. And I think that we have to have accountability in our party.”Many of the election losses were in states where Republicans were trying to enact stricter abortion laws after Roe v Wade was overturned last year. DeSantis, Christie and Haley tried to address that issue by backing away from rightwing anti-abortion rhetoric and focusing on states’ rights to choose.Haley, in particular, took the most measured stance, saying she did not judge those who support abortion and that a federal abortion ban was politically untenable.3. Haley and DeSantis continued to battle for second placeWhile neither Haley nor DeSantis are polling anywhere close to Trump, they stood out in the pack throughout the debate.Haley focused on her experience in the UN and on foreign policy issues, and DeSantis on his tenure as Florida governor. Both seemed to try to remain more composed than usual, with Haley only reacting to barbs from Ramaswamy.“Our world is on fire,” Haley said in her closing remarks. “We can’t win the fights of the 21st century with politicians from the 20th century.”Not far from the debate hall, Trump held a campaign rally. But fellow Florida man DeSantis avoided many direct attacks on the former president.“This is not about me, this is about you,” he said in his opening and closing remarks.4. There were personal attacks – particularly involving RamaswamyRamaswamy started his debate by attacking the media, the RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, and even the NBC moderators, seemingly as part of his attempt to portray himself as the anti-establishment candidate.He then turned his focus to Haley. “Do you want a leader from a different generation who is going to put this country first, or do you want Dick Cheney in three-inch heels?” he said, criticizing her hawkish foreign policy positions.And when it came the entrepreneur’s turn to talk about his policy on TikTok, Ramaswamy referred to Haley and said: “In the last debate, she made fun of me for actually joining TikTok while her own daughter was actually using the app for a long time. So you might want to take care of your family first.”“Leave my daughter out of your voice,” Haley shot back. When Ramaswamy went on, she dismissed him, saying: “You are just scum.”5. Candidates were more serious and focused than in past debatesThe earlier debates, with larger candidate pools, have tended to be circus-like in their atmosphere, with more riffs and off-topic detours. From the opening statements, the debate seemed to be more focused on the issues Americans are grappling with, from war in the Middle East and in Ukraine, and kitchen-table issues such as social security.The seriousness of the candidates seemed to reflect that the primary season was just around the corner, and that positioning themselves strategically around Trump would mean building more trust with American voters. More

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    Nikki Haley’s unexpected rise from ‘scrappy’ underdog to Trump’s closest rival

    On Monday, Nikki Haley returned to the building where her political career began to formally submit the paperwork to appear on the Republican presidential primary ballot in her home state of South Carolina. Haley held up her filing for the cameras. In loopy writing she had scrawled: “Let’s do this!”The exclamation punctuated Haley’s emergence as a viable alternative to Donald Trump. It comes nearly 20 years after Haley’s election to the South Carolina statehouse, having bested a 30-year Republican incumbent in a come-from-behind victory that stunned her party and began her unlikely ascent to the governor’s mansion and then to become Donald Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations.“I’ve always been the underdog,” Haley said in remarks at the statehouse on Monday. “I enjoy that. It’s what makes me scrappy.”In a Republican primary still thoroughly dominated by Trump, Haley is enjoying, for now, the next best thing: an unexpected rise to second place.For Republicans desperate to move on from Trump, the 51-year-old’s “adult-in-the-room” candidacy presents a compelling choice: a conservative leader with executive experience and a foreign policy hawk who pushed “America First” on a global stage. Her record, combined with her personal story as the daughter of Indian immigrants, would be hard to beat in a general election, her proponents argue, and would help broaden Republicans’ appeal among women, suburbanites and independents – groups that recoiled from the party during the Trump years.A pair of strong debate performances, a consolidating field and a sharp new focus on foreign policy following Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel have helped elevate Haley’s profile – and prospects – as she woos Republican voters and donors.In the early voting states of New Hampshire and South Carolina, polls show Haley surging past Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor whose campaign has stalled ever since he entered the race as de facto runner-up to Trump. She is also gaining ground in Iowa, which launches the Republican nominating process.In a survey released on Monday by the Des Moines Register, Haley climbed 10 points to 16%, putting her even with DeSantis as he struggles to break through against Trump.But underscoring just how difficult it will be for any candidate not named Trump to win the nomination, the poll found that the twice-impeached former president now facing four criminal indictments maintained a 27-point lead in Iowa, less than three months before the state’s caucuses.“It is slow and steady wins the race,” Haley said, previewing her strategy at the capitol building on Monday. She predicted the once-sprawling Republican field would winnow considerably after Iowa and New Hampshire before the race turns to her “sweet state of South Carolina” where she vowed: “We’ll finish it.”“I’ve got one more felIa I’ve gotta catch up to,” Haley told the crowd, “and I am determined to do it.”Last month, Trump’s former vice-president Mike Pence, ended his bid for the White House. Before that the former Republican congressman Will Hurd, suspended his campaign and endorsed Haley. In an op-ed, he argued that she has “the character and credentials to lead, the willingness to take on Mr. Trump, and the conservative record needed to beat Joe Biden”.That is the essence of Haley’s pitch to voters: that she is the most electable. To argue her case, she points to polling that shows her beating Biden in a hypothetical general election matchup.On the campaign trail, she likes to remind Republican voters that the party has lost the popular vote in the last seven out of eight presidential elections. “That’s nothing to be proud of,” she told the Daily Show guest host Charlamagne Tha God on Wednesday.Electability is the strongest argument Trump’s Republican rivals can make to voters, said Gunner Ramer, political director of the anti-Trump Republican Accountability Pac. But it’s almost certainly not enough to pry the nomination from him.There was a window after Republicans’ poor showing in the 2022 midterms when Trump appeared vulnerable to a primary challenge, he said. But his grip on the party has not only recovered since then, each indictment against him has seemed to harden the loyalty he inspires from his followers.“Her campaign is something out of 2015,” Ramer said. “It’s a reminder of what a competent Republican presidential campaign could look like if it were 2015. But we are in an era of a Donald Trump-led and inspired Republican party.”Strategists say Haley’s path to the nomination would probably require a strong performance in New Hampshire and an even better one – if not an upset – in South Carolina to send her into Super Tuesday as the clear Trump alternative.Despite growing calls for the Republican field to consolidate behind Haley, polls still show her trailing far behind Trump in both states. But longtime supporters say not to underestimate her, especially not in her home state, where she’s never lost an election.“In South Carolina, the same people who voted for Donald Trump for president twice have voted for Nikki Haley for governor twice,” said Katon Dawson, a former chair of the South Carolina Republican party who supports Haley. “It’s early yet.”While Trump has been holding his signature rallies between courtroom appearances and avoiding the debate stage, Haley has kept a frenetic campaign schedule, embracing the retail politics that she became known for in South Carolina. This week, she spoke to an overflow crowd at a diner in New Hampshire, where she was joined by the state’s Republican governor, Chris Sununu, a prominent Trump critic whose endorsement is highly coveted.“Are you ready to endorse me?” she teased.“Getting closer every day,” he replied.The clearest sign of Haley’s momentum may be the attention she’s drawing from her former boss.“Donald Trump isn’t stupid. He knows a threat when he sees one,” said Preya Samsundar, a spokesperson for a pro-Haley Super Pac. “And the fact that he’s zeroing in on Nikki instead of DeSantis is very telling.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAt a recent campaign rally in Iowa, Trump, who used to focus his ire almost exclusively on DeSantis, assailed Haley as a “highly overrated person”. Repeatedly referring to her by the derogatory nickname “Birdbrain”, Trump complained to the crowd that Haley had broken her promise to him that she would not run against him for the Republican nomination if he ran in 2024.Haley’s turn in the spotlight will inevitably invite more scrutiny. Ahead of next week’s Republican debate in Florida, Haley and DeSantis have ramped up their attacks on each other, tussling over who has a more hardline track record on immigration and foreign policy among other policy issues.In a spiky back-and-forth, DeSantis accused Haley of wanting to resettle refugees from Gaza in the United States, to which Haley is firmly opposed. She has assailed DeSantis for distorting her words.DeSantis’s team has waved off any suggestion that he and Haley’s campaigns are on opposite trajectories, arguing that the Florida governor remains Trump’s strongest challenger.“This is a two-man race, and Team Trump knows it,” Bryan Griffin, a press secretary for the DeSantis campaign, said in a statement. “That’s why they’re spending $1m to attack DeSantis in Iowa after proclaiming the primary was ‘over’.”Democrats are also weighing in against her. In recent weeks, they have sought to elevate Haley’s conservative record, particularly on abortion, which has been a damaging issue for Republicans since the supreme court overturned Roe v Wade last year.Jaime Harrison, chair of the Democratic National Committee who is also from South Carolina, accused Haley of “trying to rewrite history” by softening her approach on abortion. As governor, he noted, Haley signed into law a 20-week abortion ban that did not include exceptions for rape or incest.“Nikki may be singing a different song now, but don’t be fooled,” Harrison wrote on X, formerly Twitter, “when it comes to the issues, she is just as extreme as the rest of the MAGA field.”Perhaps Haley’s biggest asset at the moment is the sudden salience of foreign policy, amid the deepening conflict in Gaza.In recent weeks, Haley has emphasized her staunch support of Israel. As Trump’s UN ambassador, she championed his administration’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and then relocate the US embassy from Tel Aviv. She also pulled the US out of the UN human rights council after accusing it of displaying “unending hostility towards Israel”.Haley used a recent appearance at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual meeting in Las Vegas to issue some of her most scathing attacks on Trump to date, questioning his capacity to lead the country at such a precarious moment. With wars raging in the Middle East and Europe, and China posing new challenges, Haley said the stakes were too high for another “four years of chaos, vendettas and drama”.“America needs a captain who will steady the ship,” she said, “not capsize it.”As she plows ahead, Haley is also testing her party’s willingness to elect a woman of color to the nation’s highest office.In her campaign launch, she nodded to the possibility that her candidacy could make history. “I will simply say this: may the best woman win.” (In the same speech she also denounced “identity politics” and “glass ceilings”.)No woman has ever won a Republican presidential primary contest, let alone the party’s nomination. And to do so, she must wrest control of the party from the frontrunner, a former president with a long record of attacking women and people of color in demeaning and vulgar terms.“Top predictors of votes for Donald Trump are hostile sexism and racial resentment,” said Kelly Dittmar, director of research and a scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.“So how do you as a south Asian woman run against the person who has won on sentiments that also work against you as an individual?”Dawson, the former South Carolina party chair, said if any Republican can defy the odds and beat Trump, it will be Haley. He says he’s counting on the voters in South Carolina to their first female governor make history again by putting her on the path to becoming America’s first female president.“Indira Gandhi of India. Margaret Thatcher of Great Britain. Angela Merkel of Germany,” he said. “Next it’s Nikki Haley.” More