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Hunter Biden conviction could boost father against Trump, experts suggest
by Evelyn Reynolds 12 June 2024, 17:51
Hunter Biden’s conviction on gun-ownership charges may have handed his father, Joe, a boost in the forthcoming presidential election, analysts say, because it undermines the image of a president weaponising the US justice system to pursue Donald Trump.Trump, the former president and presumptive GOP presidential nominee, has pushed that line relentlessly to explain his conviction last month on charges related to the concealment of hush-money payments to a porn star to help him win the 2016 election.He has made the claim even though his prosecution was brought in a New York state court that is independent of the Department of Justice, which is overseeing 54 other criminal charges against him that have so far not come to trial.Hunter Biden, by contrast, was prosecuted and convicted under the authority of the justice department, which is part of his father’s administration – an inconvenient fact that weakens Republican claims that it has been turned into a political weapon in the president’s hands.The result, some observers say, is that Hunter’s conviction may help the president in a close race, even though the personal cost of his son’s troubles is heavy.That suspicion was further fuelled by a low-key reaction from Republicans that attempted to switch the focus to other supposed crimes they say, but have never proved, that father and son have committed.“It’s a marginal political gain, that’s what I’m feeling,” said John Zogby, a veteran pollster. “I don’t see it hurting him in any way, and especially when he neutralised the issue when he said he was not going to extend the pardon, which is very painful for him.“It pulls the rug out from under that Republican argument that the justice system is rigged against Republicans to get Trump … a Biden did not get a pass.”Zogby said the verdict – and Biden’s acceptance of it – could revive an image that was electorally helpful in 2020 of “Uncle Joe”, a man of empathy who had known suffering and personal tragedy, through the deaths of his eldest son, Beau, from cancer in 2015, and his first wife and baby daughter in a car accident in 1972.“It could put some folks who have been wavering … on the track towards seeing that more sympathetic fellow, a father who is experiencing pain again,” he said. “You know, enough to give them another point or two. I don’t think it moves mountains, but it may not have to [in a close race].”Larry Jacobs, a professor of politics at the University of Minnesota, said the verdict, while a “personal disaster” for Biden, could boomerang on the Republicans and translate into Democratic gain.“The tragic case of Hunter Biden is painful for Joe and Jill Biden [the first lady], but it is a win for the Democratic party and the Biden campaign,” he said. “It puts a lie to the Republican claims that the justice system is being manipulated by [and for] the benefit of Democrats.“It’s harder for the Republicans to say with a straight face and to audiences not already in their capture that the legal system is captured by the Democratic party.”View image in fullscreenBiden is known to be deeply concerned by the troubles of Hunter, who was found guilty by a jury in Delaware on Tuesday of lying about his drug use and addiction when buying a gun in 2018. Close aides have voiced worries about the emotional strain the matter is putting on the 81-year-old president in the midst of a close election race.“I don’t think voters are going to hold Biden accountable for his son’s addiction or his son’s misbehaviour. But I think the real question is the toll it takes on him and his family,” David Axelrod, a senior Democratic operative and former adviser to President Barack Obama told the Washington Post.“To a guy who’s already experienced great loss and tragedy, this is another heavy brick on the load. And it’s going to take enormous strength to carry that load, given all the other bricks that are on there of the presidency and being a candidate.”Despite the fact that his son now faces a possible jail sentence – and will stand trial again on unrelated tax-evasion charges in September – Biden has said he will not use his presidential powers to pardon him. That message was somewhat clouded on Wednesday when the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, on board Air Force One en route to the G7 summit in Italy, was reported as refusing to rule out a commutation of whatever sentence Hunter receives.Hunter’s conviction followed legal manoeuvring in which some observers said he had received harsher treatment because he is the president’s son. A plea bargain worked out last year that would have seen him plead guilty to the tax charges while avoiding prosecution on the gun charge was dropped following criticism from the judge in the latter case, Maryellen Noreika, who was appointed to the bench by Trump.Republicans, who have pursued Hunter Biden for years in an unsuccessful effort to prove his father profited financially from his business dealings in Ukraine, had denounced it as a sweetheart deal.The president, who travelled on Wednesday to Italy for the G7 summit, said that he would respect whatever outcome the legal process reached – a jarring contrast to Trump’s repeated assaults on the judicial system as “rigged”.“So many families who have had loved ones battle addiction understand the feeling of pride seeing someone you love come out the other side and be so strong and resilient in recovery,” Biden said.“I will accept the outcome of this case and will continue to respect the judicial process as Hunter considers an appeal. Jill and I will always be there for Hunter and the rest of our family with our love and support. Nothing will ever change that.” More
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Drill, baby, drill … if you haven’t passed out from heatstroke
by Evelyn Reynolds 12 June 2024, 17:08
Hello!More than a dozen Donald Trump supporters collapsed at his rallies amid record high temperatures in the south-west in recent days – presumably missing Trump’s promise at the gatherings to gut Biden’s environmental policies and “drill, baby, drill”. So what would a Trump administration mean for those who hope the world can limit global heating and the climate crisis? We’ll take a look after the headlines.Here’s what you need to know …1. Hunter Biden convicted of gun chargesHunter Biden, the president’s son who has become a bete noire for Republicans, was found guilty of three charges relating to buying a gun while being a user of crack cocaine. Rightwing politicians and media have accused Hunter and his father of various corrupt acts, but a Republican-led House committee spent a year investigating the pair and failed to come up with any corruption charges. The judge will now decide on Hunter Biden’s punishment: the crimes are punishable by up to 25 years in prison, although a lesser sentence is expected.2. Trump awaits his fateTrump was interviewed by probation officers on Monday, ahead of his sentencing in July. The probation interview typically serves to prepare a report on a convicted individual, which will then be considered by the judge when issuing sentence – which in this case could, in theory, include a prison sentence. Trump was convicted of 34 felony crimes related to him falsifying business records to cover up hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels, the adult film actor who claims they had an affair. He is due to be sentenced on 11 July.3. A warning for Republicans?Ohio’s sixth district went to Trump by 29 points in 2020 – but in a special election on Tuesday night, Republican candidate Michael Rulli triumphed by just nine points, which could suggest a lack of enthusiasm among voters. Elsewhere, Trump-endorsed candidates won primary elections in Nevada and South Carolina, including Nancy Mace, a congresswoman involved in the effort to remove Kevin McCarthy as House speaker: Mace had faced a vengeance-led challenge from a McCarthy-backed candidate, but won comfortably.Trump supporters drop in extreme heat waiting for their climate-denying kingpinView image in fullscreenLast week Trump and his campaign managed to send 17 supporters to the hospital after people wilted in 100F heat at his rallies in Arizona and Nevada. At the Phoenix event, Trumpers were forced to line up outside a megachurch venue for hours in the hot sun, and the stricken received only a brief mention from their leader, with Trump suggesting that people will not “be so thrilled” about waiting outside.The south-west is being blasted by record-breaking heat, with temperatures of 45C (113F) in the last week. Half of Arizona and Nevada were under heat warnings over the weekend, and given that extreme heat is accepted to be a consequence of the climate emergency, we might have expected a presidential candidate to talk up environmental efforts to limit global heating.Nah.“[Biden has] got windmills all over the place, every time you see a windmill going up you need tremendous subsidy, now it kills your birds, it ruins your landscape, ruins your value, if you have a house and you can see a windmill your house is worth half,” Trump told the crowd in Phoenix.He added: “We’re going to drill, baby, drill.”My colleagues Oliver Milman and Dharna Noor, who cover the environment, have previously reported on the Trump team’s plans to increase fossil fuel production in “a frenzy” of oil and gas drilling, while sidelining government climate scientists. In Phoenix, Trump repeated his pledge to scrap key parts of Biden’s climate plans, including rebates for people who buy electric vehicles. And just last week it emerged that Trump had promised lucrative tax favors to fossil fuel executives if they gave his campaign $1bn.Biden, for his campaign, has touted the Inflation Reduction Act, which invested a record $278bn in moving towards renewable energy sources, and in March claimed: “I’m taking the most significant action on climate ever in the history of the world.”But Oliver and Nina Lakhani also reported that Biden is weakening some of his previous climate plans – delaying a regulation to reduce emissions from gas power plans, and relaxing rules about how much carbon cars can emit.Both sides, then, could be doing more. But it’s worth taking into account one analysis that found a second Trump presidency could lead to an additional 4bn tons of US emissions by 2030.By the way: Trump has never been a fan of windfarms, and in May he said would scrap offshore wind projects on “day one” of his presidency. Part of Trump’s reasoning seems to be his incorrect belief that wind turbines cause cancer, while he has previously claimed – also wrongly – that wind turbines lead to whale deaths by making them “batty”.Of course, this wasn’t the first time Trump has expressed an interest in aquatic life, because …Shark!View image in fullscreen… the presidential hopeful has a fascination with, and loathing of, sharks. Trump has previously tweeted that he ranks sharks alongside the “losers and haters of the world”, while Stormy Daniels, the porn star whose silence Trump bought (and was convicted of fudging business accounts to pay for), has said Trump is “obsessed with sharks”. Daniels said he went as far to say: “I hope all the sharks die.”Clearly sharks were still on Trump’s mind this week. In Vegas, he went on a typically meandering monologue, musing whether it would be better to stay on board a sinking electric boat or to jump into shark-infested waters.“You know what I’d do if there was a shark, or you get electrocuted?” Trump asked the crowd. “I’d take electrocution every single time.” Please, please watch the full video.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionWho had the worst week: Jesus ChristView image in fullscreenRiding high after his Easter resurrection, things took a turn for the worse for the Son of God this week when he was compared – and not for the first time – to Donald Trump.“The Democrats and the fake news media want to constantly talk about ‘President Trump is a convicted felon’,” Marjorie Taylor Greene told a crowd. “Well, you want to know something? The man that I worship is also a convicted felon. And he was murdered on a Roman cross.”Trump has previously encouraged the comparison to Jesus.Out and about: El PasoView image in fullscreen“A gut punch.” “Political theater.” “Nonsensical.”That was the reaction from advocates in El Paso the day after Joe Biden announced a clampdown on asylum. Many worried about how the order would affect migrants fleeing violence, poverty and persecution in their home countries.I spoke with them as part of an incredibly well-timed immigration reporting workshop in El Paso, a historically liberal city in west Texas, where Spanish and English are spoken interchangeably and the border is a line many cross daily for work, school or to grab a bite.Many were skeptical. Juan Acereto Cervera, an adviser to the mayor of Juárez, the Mexican city across the border from El Paso, said the policy would do little to stop people from seeking a better life elsewhere.“Nothing’s going to stop the migration, nothing,” he said.That is the conundrum Biden faces as he tries to address an issue that poses both a serious policy challenge and a serious political threat to his re-election campaign.– Lauren Gambino, political correspondent, El Paso, TexasBiggest lie: Charlie KirkView image in fullscreenJoe Biden’s acceptance of the legal process in his son Hunter’s criminal case, and a promise that he wouldn’t pardon him, stands in contrast to how Trump reacted after his conviction of 34 felonies – which the former president has frequently and falsely claimed was orchestrated by the Biden administration.It also provides an example against the Republican-pushed claim that the elder Biden can, and does, rig the courts against Trump. Wouldn’t he have saved his own son?Of course not, say Trump allies, who have started to push a new conspiracy about the Hunter Biden conviction.“This is a fake trial trying to make the justice system appear ‘balanced’,” said Charlie Kirk, the leader of conservative youth group Turning Point USA. “Don’t fall for it.” More
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Lindsey Graham vows to block Democrats’ supreme court ethics bill
by Evelyn Reynolds 12 June 2024, 14:51
The South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham, the top-ranking Republican on the Senate judiciary committee, said that he will block Democrats’ attempts to pass an ethics bill to rein in the US supreme court.Graham told NBC News that he “will object” to the bill on Wednesday, meaning it will not move forward on its legislative journey.The Senate judiciary committee chairman, Dick Durbin, from Illinois, told reporters that Senate Democrats were working to unanimously move the bill forward, the Hill reported. Durbin co-authored the bill with Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island.“We’re planning on making a move on the floor this week to move the ethics bill for the supreme court,” Durbin said.It follows a series of scandals focusing on the rightwing justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito in relation both to gifts and to their capacity to serve with political neutrality.Durbin added that “new evidence” might emerge concerning ethics on the supreme court, elaborating that the evidence “relates to the ethical considerations from some of the justices for gifts they’ve taken and not reported”, the Hill reported.US representatives have also criticized what they call a “crisis of legitimacy” affecting the court.While speaking at a round table on Capitol Hill in Washington DC on Tuesday, the New York progressive representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said the court has been captured and corrupted “by money and extremism”.“A group of anti-democratic billionaires with their own ideological and economic agenda has been working one of the three co-equal branches of government,” she said.The Democratic congressman Jamie Raskin of Maryland, who was also at Tuesday’s round table, said: “The highest court in the land today has the lowest ethical standards.”In recent weeks, Alito has faced calls to recuse himself from election-related cases and for a broader investigation after a flag associated in modern times with the far right was reportedly flying above one of his homes.And Alito, along with his wife, Martha-Ann Alito, came under additional scrutiny after Alito said that one side in the US’s partisan left versus right ideology battle “has to win”, in remarks captured in a secret recording.Martha-Ann also criticized the LGBTQ+ Pride flag, as heard in the same recording.Thomas has repeatedly faced criticism for failing to disclose in the official record that he took lavish vacations paid for by the conservative billionaire Harlan Crow, ProPublica first reported. Thomas belatedly disclosed the luxury trips for the court record last week.Public confidence in the court has also swiftly fallen in the last year to near record lows, according to polling from Gallup. More
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Nancy Mace beats Kevin McCarthy-backed challenger in South Carolina primary
by Evelyn Reynolds 12 June 2024, 02:09
The South Carolina congresswoman Nancy Mace easily survived a primary challenge on Tuesday, against Kevin McCarthy-backed Catherine Templeton, while a much closer than expected special election in Ohio offered warning signs for Republicans ahead of November.In Ohio’s sixth district, candidate Michael Rulli prevailed in the special election to replace fellow Republican Bill Johnson, who resigned from Congress in January. Rulli’s victory will help expand his party’s razor-thin majority in the House, but his nine-point win over Democratic contender Michael Kripchak may unnerve Republicans, given that Donald Trump carried the district by 29 points in 2020.In South Carolina, McCarthy, the former House speaker, attempted to oust Mace by backing her rival, but the the two-term incumbent received a crucial endorsement from Trump. The grudge match was personal for McCarthy, as Mace was one of the eight Republicans who voted to oust the then speaker last year.The high stakes made the race a costly one, with outside groups dumping millions of dollars into the district. The South Carolina Patriots Pac spent nearly $4m backing Templeton’s primary bid, while the Win It Back Pac and Club for Growth Action collectively invested roughly $2.5m supporting Mace. Despite Templeton’s external support, Mace led by 29 points when the Associated Press called the first congressional district race about an hour and a half after polls closed in South Carolina.Mace was not the only South Carolina Republican facing a primary threat on Tuesday. Over in the fourth district, the Republican congressman William Timmons was running neck and neck with state representative Adam Morgan, who leads the South Carolina legislature’s freedom caucus. Like Mace, Timmons had the benefit of Trump’s endorsement, but the race was still too close to call three hours after polls closed.And at least one of South Carolina’s House Republican primaries will advance to a runoff later this month. In the reliably Republican third district, Trump-backed pastor Mark Burns and Air National Guard Lt Col Sheri Biggs will compete again on 25 June to determine who will have the opportunity to succeed Jeff Duncan, the retiring representative.Meanwhile, the fate of South Carolina’s abortion laws rests in part on the results of three Republican primaries in state senate races. State senators Katrina Shealy, Margie Bright Matthews, Mia McLeod, Sandy Senn and Penry Gustafson collectively blocked a near-total abortion ban in South Carolina earlier this year. The “Sister Senators” were feted as a profile in courage by the Kennedy Center, but the three Republicans among them – Shealy, Senn and Gustafson – face primary challengers from their right on abortion. If two of the three lose to challengers, abortion foes will have the votes to restrict abortion beyond the current six-week ban.In addition to South Carolina, three other states held primaries on Tuesday. In Maine’s second congressional district, the former Nascar driver turned state representative Austin Theriault resoundingly defeated fellow state representative Michael Soboleski in the Republican primary. Theriault will advance to the general election against Democratic congressman Jared Golden, who faces yet another difficult re-election campaign.Republicans are hopeful that Theriault has the résumé to defeat Golden, but the Democrat has proven politically resilient since he was first elected to Congress in 2018, when he narrowly defeated the Republican incumbent, Bruce Poliquin, thanks to Maine’s ranked-choice voting system. In 2022, Golden again defeated Poliquin by six points in the second round of voting, even though Trump had carried the second district by seven points two years earlier.The Cook Political Report rates Golden’s seat as a toss-up, so Theriault’s victory will kick off what is expected to be a heated and closely contested race in the general election. Just minutes after the AP made Theriault’s primary win official, the left-leaning Pac American Bridge 21st Century began attacking him over his views on abortion access.In Nevada, a dozen Republicans are vying for their party’s Senate nomination, but the primary appears to have become a two-person race between the retired army captain Sam Brown and former US ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter. Polling indicates Brown has a significant lead over Gunter, and Brown has received a last-minute boost from Trump, who made a much-awaited endorsement in the race on Sunday.The winner of the Republican primary will go on to face the Democratic incumbent, Jackie Rosen, in one of the most closely watched Senate races this year, as the Cook Political Report rates the seat as a toss-up.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionFurther down the ballot, the Democratic congresswoman Susie Lee faces a tough re-election campaign in Nevada’s third congressional district. Seven Republicans – including video game music composer Marty O’Donnell and former state treasurer Dan Schwartz – are running for the chance to face off against Lee, but Trump has stayed out of the primary so far. The former president’s only House primary endorsement in Nevada went to the former North Las Vegas mayor John Lee in the fourth district, but the winner of that race will face a much steeper climb to defeat the Democratic incumbent, Steven Horsford, in the general election.View image in fullscreenOver in North Dakota, five Republicans and two Democrats are running to replace the Republican congressman Kelly Armstrong representing the state’s at-large congressional district, but no Democrat has won the seat since 2008. Rather than seeking re-election, Armstrong has launched a gubernatorial bid, and he won his primary on Tuesday. Armstrong is widely favored to replace the outgoing governor, Doug Burgum, who has been named as a potential running mate for Trump.North Dakota voters also weighed in on a ballot measure regarding age limits for congressional candidates. If approved by a majority of North Dakota voters, the measure would prevent candidates from running for Congress if they would turn 81 during their term. Although the policy would only apply to congressional candidates, the age cutoff is noteworthy considering Joe Biden, who is four years older than Trump, turned 81 in November. More
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Donald Trump fundraiser in London ‘already has $2m’ day before event
by Evelyn Reynolds 11 June 2024, 17:49
A Donald Trump fundraiser in London, where his eldest son will be the star guest, has already clocked up $2m (£1.57m) in donations before it takes place on Wednesday, according to organisers.The event is being hosted by the actor and singer Holly Valance, who has become an increasingly influential figure on Britain’s radical right since meeting the former president in the US in the company of Nigel Farage.Farage will take a break from campaigning in the general election to attend the event along with American Republicans, including people who served in the last Trump White House and some tipped for roles if he wins again.They include Richard Grenell – a former acting director of US national intelligence who served as the US ambassador to Germany – who has been playing a role as a roving international envoy for Trump.The event is billed as a reception and dinner with Donald Trump Jr and his fiancee, Kimberly Guilfoyle, a lawyer and former Fox News host.View image in fullscreenOther hosts include Woody Johnson, the owner of the New York Jets NFL team who was Trump’s ambassador to the UK, along with George Glass, the US ambassador to Portugal under Trump, and Duke Buchan, his ambassador to Spain.Scott Bessent, a prominent Trump fundraiser who is tipped as a potential treasury secretary, is also expected to attend.While Trump himself is on the US presidential campaign trail, he may make a virtual appearance, or at least send a recorded video message similar to the one that was played at Farage’s 60th birthday in April.The event is expected to take place at a private residence in Chelsea or Knightsbridge, with about 100 people attending.Invites bearing a Trump logo list a number of different categories under which attenders can make donation, such as “host committee” ($100,000 a couple) and “dinner” ($50,000). A photo opportunity will cost $25,000, while simple attendance is $10,000.Some of the donations already raised are understood to be in excess of $100,000. Valance, who is married to the billionaire property tycoon Nick Candy, qualifies to make donations to Trump as a US green card holder.Valance and Candy have been publicly associated with Trump and Farage since at least April 2022, when Farage tweeted a picture of the four of them after a dinner at the former president’s Palm Beach resort, Mar-a-Lago.Since then, reports have gone as far as suggesting that she was under consideration as a Conservative candidate to run in the London mayoral elections, and more recently as a candidate for Farage’s Reform UK party in the general election.She attended the launch earlier this year of the Popular Conservatism – or “PopCon” – movement, co-founded by the former prime minister Liz Truss. The former Tory leader will not be attending the Trump fundraiser.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionValance told GB News after the event: “I would say that everyone starts as a lefty and then wakes up at some point after you start either making money, working, trying to run a business, trying to buy a home, and then realise what crap ideas they all are, and then you go to the right.”Earlier this month she was among those who claimed credit for encouraging Farage to run again, saying she had been “whispering in his ear for a long, long time, saying ‘c’mon’”.Greg Swenson, a spokesperson for Republicans Overseas UK, a campaign group for Trump’s party, said the former president’s trial and conviction in New York had “energised” supporters in Britain and the US.“We’ve already noticed that people who were writing cheques for $100 are now writing for $1,000. The question is what it means for the independents and those who are undecided,” he added.While super-wealthy donors will be gathering for the Trump event, London-based supporters and would-be supporters of his Democratic opponent will be gathering for a £40-a-head comedy event.Kristin Kaplan Wolfe, the chair of Democrats Abroad UK, said: “While Republicans eat their $100,000 a couple dinner with Donald Trump Jr here in London, our UK volunteers will be helping Americans register to vote so we devour them at the ballot box in November.“We invite all Republicans living in the UK who can’t stomach the idea of dinner with Donald Trump Jr to join our big tent party and help defeat Donald Trump Sr at the ballot box in November.” More
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Potential VP pick says he was vetted on questions that would disqualify Trump
by Evelyn Reynolds 11 June 2024, 17:16
JD Vance, a rightwing senator vying to be Donald Trump’s running mate, has inadvertently revealed that as part of his vetting for the role, he was asked questions that might disqualify Trump himself.Talking to Fox & Friends, the Republican senator for Ohio told co-host Steve Doocy that his team had been asked “for a number of things” as part of a traditional background check for the vice-president role, adding that “a number of people have been asked to submit this and that”.Doocy interjected: “Like your taxes or something?” before raising the ante: “Your criminal background?”Vance replied: “I don’t know everything they’ve been asked, yeah, but certainly like: ‘Have you ever committed a crime?’ ‘Have you ever lied about this?’”The exchange elicited an immediate response on social media. Jen Psaki, the former Biden White House spokesperson – and now an anchor on MSNBC, posted that Trump “could not pass his own vetting materials for Vice President”. Others suggested that committing a crime or lying may be a requirement for a place on the ticket.Trump himself was given a criminal record last month after he was convicted on 34 counts of document falsification relating to hush money paid to an adult film actor in an effort to win the 2016 presidential election.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionHe has also bucked a long-standing convention that presidential candidates release their tax returns, and earlier this year was ordered to pay a $464m penalty for fraudulently inflating property values. More
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Trust in US institutions has ‘never been lower’ – here’s why that matters
by Evelyn Reynolds 11 June 2024, 13:00
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American psyche: a new series exploring the angst at the heart of the US election
She was sentenced to prison for voting. Her story is part of a Republican effort to intimidate others
Americans don’t have much faith in America right now. Or at least not in its institutions.In 2022, a Gallup poll found that Americans had experienced “significant declines” in trust in 11 of 16 major US institutions. The supreme court and the presidency saw the largest drops in public confidence – by 11% and 15%, respectively. Trust also fell in the medical system, banks, police, public schools and newspapers.Things didn’t improve in 2023: a follow-up poll found that levels of trust remained low, with none of the scores “worsening or improving meaningfully”.Public confidence waxes and wanes, but these numbers are notably bleak. Trust in institutions has “never been lower”, confirms Jeffrey Jones, a senior editor of the Gallup poll and the author of the 2022 report.This mistrust is not a one-time blip, a rough patch in an otherwise happy relationship between a country and its people. According to polling experts, it is partly the result of a decades-long effort by political leaders to erode public confidence in institutions such as science, media and government. And the consequences are serious. Not trusting the forces that govern their lives is detrimental to the health and wellbeing of individuals and communities, and makes the country less prepared to face a major crisis.“Trust is the grease that oils the gears and makes things work,” says Dr Marc Hetherington, professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “Without it, everything is more difficult.”But how did we lose this trust in the first place? And is there a way to get it back?With the exception of a couple of surges, the US “has been in a really low-trust environment since the 1970s”, says Hetherington.At that point, public confidence in institutions started to fall. Part of this was a natural leveling out. After the second world war, trust levels had been “extraordinarily high”, Hetherington says. “Probably anomalously so.”And part of it was due to the simple fact that – after the civil unrest of the 1960s and the energy crisis followed by stagflation of the 1970s – many Americans felt the government just wasn’t performing very well.But there was another force at play. Around this time, the Republican party became “the anti-government party”, Hetherington says. “There was a lot of political hay to be made from actively saying negative things about institutions, and it helped win elections.”By 1984, the Republican party’s official platform condemned government overreach. “Not every problem cries out for a federal solution,” it read.Over the next few decades, there were spikes of trust – usually during sunny economic times, like in the middle of the Reagan administration or at the end of the Clinton presidency. There were also spikes that arose from crises, like the months following 9/11.View image in fullscreenBut overall, trust trended downwards. “For the last 20 years, confidence has been depressed,” Jones says. He notes two major drops. The first during the second term of the George W Bush administration, when average confidence dropped 10%, and the second from 2019 to now, when average confidence dropped another 10% (save a brief spike during the early days of Covid).Numbers can feel abstract. But the effects of low public confidence are very concrete for both individuals and communities.“As individuals, we rely on institutions to sustain various aspects of our lives, whether we realize it or not,” says Keanu Jackson, a licensed social worker and therapist in New York City. Trust gets undermined when people feel like the institutions they rely on are not concerned with their wellbeing, he says, adding that when it happens, it can lead to “feelings of disillusionment, increased anxiety and stress, identity confusion, and a decreased sense of stability”.Constantly questioning the organizations that govern our lives is exhausting. “Having institutions that we trust is an easier lift for us cognitively,” says Dr Lynn Bufka, deputy chief of professional practice at the American Psychological Association. If someone feels that they have to double-check government guidance, news reports and medical directives, it wears on them and leads to a greater sense of uncertainty and anxiety.Low public confidence can also suggest “a lower collective sense of who we are”, Bufka notes. If Americans don’t have a shared understanding of how institutions represent them and what they can depend on, that may lead to greater splintering between groups. “That can potentially lead to anticipation of more general conflict, which at minimum would put you on edge,” she says.On a larger scale, the effects can be even more devastating. And perhaps they already have been, Hetherington says.Consider the Covid crisis. “Government was responsible for carrying out whatever ideas scientists thought were best practices,” he says. But significant mistrust of both the government and the science made many Americans treat official health guidelines with suspicion, if not outright rejection. “The ramifications of that are pretty clear. Probably tens if not hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths happen in the US,” Hetherington says.Is there potential to turn it around? Experts are torn.Jones says he is not optimistic that there will be a reversal in the mistrust trend anytime soon. In the past, he says, moments of economic prosperity have buoyed public trust, but he’s not sure that can happen any more. “Even when the economy’s good, there’s still economic angst,” he says.Hetherington says that, given how unwilling both major political parties seem to give each other any credit, he doubts “whether it’s even possible” to have a meaningful surge in trust. “I’ve come up with lots of problems and too few solutions,” he admits.Bufka is more optimistic. Leaders can rebuild trust with their public, she says. In the American Psychological Association’s 2023 Stress in America report, 59% of Americans said it is stressful that “politicians aren’t talking about things that are most important to them”.So, Bufka says, leaders need to speak on issues that matter to people. “Are [officials] talking about the things that are important to the people they represent? Does the news focus on things that are important to the average person?” Doing this, and explaining how and why they are making decisions, makes a big difference, she says.“Institutions have some opportunity to make change here, and it’s important for those who have power to think about what it is they could do,” she says. “It often comes down to transparent and honest communication.” More
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America’s problem is massive inequality – not ‘woke’ educated elites | Robert Reich
by Evelyn Reynolds 11 June 2024, 10:01
More than a third of Harvard’s graduating seniors are heading into finance or management consulting – two professions notable for how quickly their practitioners “make a bag”, or make money, reports the New York Times.Similar percentages show up in other prestigious universities.Frankly, if anything, I’m surprised that only a third of graduating seniors at Harvard and similar places are heading into finance and consulting.In this era of raging income inequality and billionaire robber barons, the bags are gigantic. At Goldman Sachs they start at $105,000 to $164,000. At McKinsey, $100,000 to $140,000.And that’s just the first year.Think of it: make a bag and then do whatever you really want to do without ever again worrying about money. Make a bag and support whatever good causes you believe in without having to work at social change. Make a bag and you’ll never have to grovel to those with wealth and power.When I graduated Dartmouth College in 1968, almost no one I knew went into finance or consulting. In those days, inequalities were minuscule compared with now. The bags at that time could have fit into a glove compartment.One of the least-discussed but most profound consequences of America’s surging inequality is the number of talented young people now devoting themselves to making bags.Remarkably, though, most talented young people are not yet in the bag.For most of the last 43 years I’ve taught at several of America’s most prestigious universities. The biggest change I’ve seen over the years isn’t how starry-eyed students have become about finance and consulting.It’s how passionate they’ve become about making the world better.Sure, I’ve noticed the mini-stampede into finance and consulting. But graduates out to make a bag are still the minority.Most graduates are joining non-profits, entering politics or becoming community organizers, public defenders, teachers, healthcare workers, diplomats, staffers on congressional committees, union organizers and environmental activists.The conservative columnist David Brooks bemoans this trend. In a recent column he laments that at elite universities “the share of progressive students and professors has steadily risen, and the share of conservatives has approached zero”.He cites a May 2023 survey of Harvard’s graduating class showing 65% identifying as progressive or very progressive.Why is this happening? Brooks thinks the gen Z cohort at prestigious universities is so tormented by the cognitive dissonance between their positions of privilege and their commitments to social justice that they must “prove to themselves and others” that they’re “on the side of the oppressed”.It doesn’t seem to have dawned on Brooks that, at least since the start of Donald Trump’s presidency in January 2017, the meaning of “progressive” has shifted from someone who wants a more just society to someone who simply wants to preserve democracy.To be a “progressive” at a prestigious university these days – indeed, to be a progressive anywhere in America – is no longer to be on the political left as the left used to be defined. It’s to be on the side of the constitution, the rule of law, and a modicum of decency.This is why so many more undergraduates and professors now deem themselves progressive.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionI agree with Brooks that elite universities should dismantle arrangements that let the privileged members of society pass down their educational privileges to their children, while locking out most everyone else – for example, by ending affirmative action for legacies and calling on the private sector to remove college prerequisites for decent-paying jobs.But Brooks and other conservatives are dead wrong about which elite is holding back the rest of America. It’s not the educated class. It’s the moneyed class.America’s corporate and financial elites have flooded American politics with money in order to receive government subsidies, bailouts, tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks – all of which ratchet up their wealth, entrench their power and make it harder for average working people to advance.Trump and much of his Republican party are deploying criticisms of the educated class to pose as populists on the side of the people.Consider Elise Stefanik, Harvard class of ’06 and chair of the House Republican Conference, who doesn’t miss an opportunity to attack elite universities and their presidents. Or Senator Josh Hawley, Stanford class of ’02 and Yale Law ’06, who calls the recent student demonstrations signs of “moral rot”.It’s all a thinly veiled cover for their efforts to help the wealthy make even bigger bags while keeping everyone else – especially average workers – down.At this moment, Republicans are promising the moneyed class that in return for financial backing in the upcoming election, they’ll get an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts – which disproportionately boosted the wealth of big corporations and the rich – plus additional tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks.This could expand the national debt by roughly $1tn over the next decade, rendering it impossible for the government to invest in things average Americans desperately need – such as childcare, eldercare, affordable housing, and, yes, affordable higher education.Brooks thinks that if present trends continue, there will be a populist uprising – “a multiracial, multiprong, right/left alliance against the educated class”.For Brooks, the lesson is that the educated class must “seriously reform the system or be prepared to be run over”.He’s wrong. The real lesson is we must reform the system created by the moneyed class – or be prepared to run the moneyed class over.
Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is a professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His newest book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com More

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America’s problem is massive inequality – not ‘woke’ educated elites | Robert Reich

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