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      Tuberville will continue block on US military nominees despite Hamas attack on Israel

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      The Republican senator Tommy Tuberville has said he will continue to block hundreds of military leadership appointments despite the Hamas attack on Israel, a close American ally, that has triggered a deadly escalation in the Middle East conflict.Tuberville has for several months put a hold on at least 300 military nominees, which are typically confirmed in a routine manner by the US Senate. His blockade is a protest over a Pentagon policy that facilitates abortions for service members and dependents.Tuberville, a former Auburn University football coach turned Alabama senator, has indicated he will maintain the blockade even in the wake of the assault on Israel, in which at least 700 mostly civilians are thought to have died, including several hundred revelers killed at a music festival, while dozens more people are believed to have been taken hostage. Israel has responded with airstrikes on the Gaza Strip that authorities in the penned-in territory say has killed at least 493 Palestinian people, including entire families sheltering in their apartments.US military appointments currently in limbo include top officers slated to command American forces in the Middle East, and two picks for the joint chiefs of staff. Separately, the US also does not have an ambassador to Israel, its close ally; Democrats have called for a swift confirmation of the nominee, Jack Lew.Joe Biden has previously called Tuberville’s stance “totally irresponsible”, and the president accused him of undermining the strength and capabilities of the US military. But the Alabama senator said on Sunday that even the attack on Israel would not shift his position.“The Pentagon clearly thinks forcing taxpayers to facilitate abortion is more important than confirming their top nominees without a vote,” a Tuberville spokesperson told NBC. “They could end this situation today by dropping their illegal and immoral policy and get everyone confirmed rapidly, but they refuse.”Invoking a name Tuberville calls himself because of his prior job, the spokesperson added: “If the Biden administration wants their nominees confirmed then Senate Democrats can do what Coach just did in September and file a cloture petition to force a vote.”Military nominees are usually bundled together and confirmed by a voice vote in the Senate to speed along appointments, but under Senate rules a single senator can hold up this process. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senate majority leader, has said that individual votes on each of the nominees would eat up a huge amount of time, and urged Republicans to get Tuberville “in line”.Tuberville objects to a Pentagon policy that does not itself perform abortions but provides time off and travel assistance to members of the military that require reproductive healthcare.The US secretary of defense, Lloyd Austin, has said that the policy safeguards the healthcare and combat readiness of service members and is widely popular within the military.Abortion has been effectively banned in several states following the US supreme court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade last year – a move decried by progressives but lauded by conservatives like Tuberville.“The severity of the crisis in Israel underscores the foolishness of Senator Tuberville’s blockade,” said Jack Reed, a Democrat who leads the Senate armed services committee.“The United States needs seamless military leadership in place to handle dangerous situations like this and Senator Tuberville is denying it. This is no time for petty political theater, and I again urge Republican colleagues to help actively end Senator Tuberville’s damaging blockade.” More

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      Matt Gaetz says ousting of Kevin McCarthy was worth risk of losing seat

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      The Republican US congressman Matt Gaetz claims it would not matter to him if he lost his seat in Congress for leading the ouster of his fellow party member Kevin McCarthy as US House speaker last week.Asked Sunday on NBC’s Meet the Press whether McCarthy’s removal as House speaker would be worth losing his job over, Gaetz responded: “Absolutely. Look, I am here to fight for my constituents.”Gaetz, a Florida representative, on Tuesday followed through on months of threats to boot McCarthy from the speakership after the Republican congressman from California struck a deal with Democrats to avoid a government shutdown at the beginning of October. Gaetz sided with seven other far-right House Republicans and all Democrats in the chamber to strip McCarthy of his role, making him the first speaker in US history to be removed.In response, some House Republicans have openly talked about kicking Gaetz out of their caucus. That manoeuvre would require approval of two-thirds of House Republicans.A more extreme option on the table is to move for Gaetz’s expulsion from Congress altogether, which would also require two-thirds of the House to vote in favor of it.“I don’t see how they can really be part of a conference when they come on the inside, listen to what is going on, and then [go] outside and lob bombs into the middle,” Republican congressman Dave Joyce of Ohio told CNN. Joyce, the Republican Governance Group’s chairperson, added: “It’s a waste of time having conversations with these people.”In his conversation on Sunday with Meet the Press host Kristen Welker, Gaetz said it was nonsense that House Republicans would consider kicking him out of either their caucus or the legislative body.“The voters of Florida’s first congressional district sent me here with about 70% of the vote,” Gaetz said, alluding to his comfortable margin of victory during his re-election run in last year’s midterms. “So I think that anyone trying to kick me out of Congress because they didn’t like me would have a bone to pick with them.“They want to expel me from Congress? That’s crazy.”Welker asked Gaetz whether it was irresponsible for him to successfully plot McCarthy’s ouster as House speaker without a clear replacement. Gaetz argued that Republicans – who hold a thin majority in the House – have “two men who are incredibly respected” ready to succeed McCarthy as speaker.The remark referred to the two Republican congressmen who have announced bids to run for the vacant speakership: Jim Jordan of Ohio and Louisiana’s Steve Scalise, who is the House majority leader.Gaetz declined to endorse one over the other on Monday. He only said he was “heartened” to talk with both “on their specific plans on spending and single-subject appropriations bills” ahead of a House vote to select a new speaker that is tentatively expected to occur in the coming days.“If either of those men get the most support in the conference, I’m eager to vote for them on the floor,” Gaetz said. More

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      The greater the fear Trump feels, the more sinister his threats become | Sidney Blumenthal

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      “DEATH!” tweeted Donald Trump about Gen Mark Milley, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (AKA “My Generals”). “TRAITOR!” he said about former speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (AKA “My Kevin”).“Monster” and “Deranged Lunatic” he labeled the New York state attorney general, Letitia James, who is prosecuting the case against him for his false valuations of Trump properties. “Deranged”, “Psycho” and “Crackhead” he called special prosecutor Jack Smith, who has charged him for his role in the January 6 coup attempt and his theft of classified documents.“We’ll stand up to crazy Nancy Pelosi, who ruined San Francisco – how’s her husband doing, anybody know?” he shouted at a rally, referring to Paul Pelosi, who was nearly murdered by a hammer-wielding assassin. “Crooked Joe Biden, let’s indict the motherfucker! Let’s indict him,” Trump said to a cheering crowd.“A racist … having an affair with the head of the gang or a gang member,” he claimed about Fani Willis, the Fulton county district attorney in Georgia, prosecuting him for the fake electors scheme. “Animal” and “Degenerate Psychopath” he called Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, who has charged him with campaign bribery. “[Senator Charles] Schumer’s girlfriend … is running this case against me,” he lied about a clerk in the New York courtroom, identifying her by name. For that transgression, Manhattan supreme court justice Arthur Engoron, who Trump previously said should be “disbarred”, issued a limited gag rule forbidding him from targeting officers of the court.Needless to say, Trump’s vilification of Bragg, Willis and James, all Black, is an extension of his lifelong campaign for white supremacy, going back to his discrimination against Black housing buyers and his full-page ads in the New York newspapers in 1989 calling for the death penalty for five Black and Hispanic youths, the “Central Park Five”, who were innocent of the charges against them. But he now has a larger agenda than a race war here and there.Trump’s torrent of attacks on judges, prosecutors and witnesses is of a piece with his larger project to delegitimize and demolish the institutions of government, including now the House of Representatives through the historic first overthrow of a sitting speaker. His goal in every arena is the same: to clear the path to one-man rule. His threats, incitements and smears are more than outbursts. They are statements of intention for his next presidency.The constitution must be suspended to overturn the results of the 2020 election: “A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution,” he has proposed. He has announced he will prosecute and imprison his political opponents: “I will appoint a real special ‘prosecutor’ to go after the most corrupt president in the history of the USA, Joe Biden, the entire Biden crime family, & all others involved with the destruction of our elections, borders, & country itself!” He has pledged to purge the federal civil service and replace its employees with Trump loyalists: “You’re fired, get out, you’re fired,” he said, repeating his signature phrase from his television show The Apprentice. “[You] have to do it. Deep state. Washington will be an entirely different place.”Facing 91 felony counts in four separate trials, not to mention his second defamation judgment in the E Jean Carroll adjudicated rape case and the court-ordered unraveling of the Trump Organization in New York for decades of financial fraud, Trump has not stopped committing offenses. He has been a fount of ceaseless threats to specific officers of the court that he well knows may incite violence against them, interspersed with other calls for extralegal violence, such as shooting shoplifters. “Shot!” he shouted to a cheering crowd. If people can’t be bought off, told off or pushed off, they must be offed.Jack Smith’s filings to the Washington DC court requesting a gag order are a running commentary on Trump’s continuing crime wave. “Like his previous public disinformation campaign regarding the 2020 presidential election,” Smith wrote, “the defendant’s recent extrajudicial statements are intended to undermine public confidence in an institution – the judicial system – and to undermine confidence in and intimidate individuals – the court, the jury pool, witnesses and prosecutors.”In his collection of Trump’s latest “prejudicial statements,” Smith highlighted that Gen Milley, who Trump stated “had committed treason and suggested that he should be executed”, is “a witness cited in the indictment”.Smith addressed the issue of witness intimidation and tampering directly: “Even assuming that certain witnesses are not intimidated by the defendant’s statements, other witnesses see and may be affected by what the defendant does to those who are called to testify in this case. And regardless of whether certain witnesses are intimidated by the defendant’s extrajudicial statements, the defendant should not be permitted to attack or bolster the credibility of any witness in a manner that could influence prospective jurors.”Adding new felony charges against Trump for his egregious efforts at witness tampering would slow down the case against him. But the special prosecutor retains the option of filing those charges later. Trump’s inflammatory language could yet lead to further indictments.Trump’s threats are not simply rhetorical explosions but illegal attempts to intimidate witnesses and prejudice the jury. But they are more than that too. For Trump, the further the dismantlement of the rule of law, the smoother the path to one-man rule. Attempting to intimidate officers of the court and to tamper with witnesses is more than his legal strategy; it’s central to his overarching political strategy. He has systemic purpose. He is seeking to sideline every institution of government other than a presidency he occupies in which he is not bound by constitutional confines. By eliminating checks and balances now, he’s preparing for dictatorial rule.In 2020, under his aegis, the Republican party passed no platform whatsoever. Now, his incitements are the planks of the Republican platform on which all Republicans must run. His threats are his promises of what is to come. He is moving beyond the politics of grievance to the menace of revenge. Making him their candidate, Republicans are pledged to his violence and illegality. If he can escape accountability for his crimes, the rule of law collapses and the path is cleared for him. That is his vision. The criminal is the political.Trump seized upon the chance to advance the collapse of the speakership as an opportunity to reduce another governmental body that might be a check on him. The fewer barriers to one-man rule, the easier his road back to power. The party’s impotence is his strength. Kevin McCarthy’s demise appeared to him as a fortunate opening to grind toward control.The House Republicans rehearse an endless revenge tragedy strewing bodies on the stage. They flail at the Democrats, who for the crucial motion to vacate removed themselves to the reserved seats in the colosseum to watch the Republicans devour their speaker. The Republicans blamed the Democrats for failing to save McCarthy from the Republicans. McCarthy contrived to cooperate in his own destruction upon accepting the speakership by agreeing that one member alone could file a motion to vacate. Brutus, undisguised, was already lurking. McCarthy had put a knife in his hand in the first scene.With McCarthy’s corpse still warm, the speaker pro tempore Patrick McHenry’s first act was to evict former speaker Nancy Pelosi from her hideaway office, a little piece of real estate within the Capitol. It turns out it was a last sniveling request to McHenry from McCarthy, a spasm preceding rigor mortis. When she was speaker, she accorded the favor of the office to Dennis Hastert as a former speaker for as long as he remained in the House (before his pedophilia conviction). At the moment McHenry made his graceless gesture, Pelosi was in California, having accompanied the body of her dear friend Senator Dianne Feinstein to prepare for her funeral. He struck out at Pelosi as though her eviction punished her alongside the Republican eviction of Kevin McCarthy. It was presumably an equivalent slam of the Democratic speaker for the slamming of the Republican one.But Pelosi had left the speakership in dignity, handed off her baton and stays as an eminence, while McCarthy was despised, trampled and cut to pieces by his own. She served as the speaker for four years; he completed eight months, not quite to term. The displacement of Republican hostility to Pelosi only highlights their auto-da-fe of McCarthy. He is their former lord of the flies, felled by the swarm of flies. McHenry’s first act, ingratiating himself to the recently departed, established the tone of his even briefer transitional tenure. McCarthy all along tried to play to the bullies, joined in with the bullies, was roughed up by the bullies, and, finally, rousted by the bullies; after he was bullied out, his figurehead successor messed the clean slate with a small act of bullying. The hunger games continue.Trump was silent on McCarthy’s defenestration, the gratitude McCarthy received for his self-abasement, down to the nicety of regularly giving Trump gifts of jars of pink and red Starbursts, the former president’s favorite candy. The sweetener did not sweeten things for the candy man. Trump was the not-so-hidden hand reaching from behind the curtain, waving on the assassins. Stroking Trump almost to the last with praise, as “stronger today than in 2016”, McCarthy walked to his destiny with a knife about to be planted in his back. Immediately after the vote to remove him, Matt Gaetz stated, “I would say that my conversations with the former president leave me with great confidence that I’m doing the right thing.”McCarthy’s reward for loyalty to Trump led him into the usual cul-de-sac of Republicans trying to contain Trump. Predictably, Trump demanded what McCarthy could not deliver. “UNLESS YOU GET EVERYTHING, SHUT IT DOWN!” Everyone who decides to be involved with Trump inevitably faces an unacceptable request. In McCarthy’s case, it was shutting down the government, which would be disastrous for the razor-thin Republican majority going into an election. “If somebody wants to remove [me] because I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,” McCarthy challenged his enemies. He could not bring himself in the end obviously to damage his party’s power through a shutdown. So McCarthy faced a choice of self-destruction, either losing the speakership eventually or immediately. He took his chances.Trump has mused to a rapt Iowa crowd of followers about his own possible fate: “If I’m sitting down and that boat is going down and I’m on top of a battery and the water starts flooding in, I’m getting concerned, but then I look 10 yards to my left and there’s a shark over there, so I have a choice of electrocution and a shark, you know what I’m going to take? Electrocution.” McCarthy thought he could survive by accommodating Trump. Then he somehow believed he could navigate between the rock and the hard place. But he was still eaten by the sharks. He met the fate of all the other adults in the room.At once, like a jack-in-the-box, Sean Hannity, Fox News host, popped up to float the idea of Trump as speaker. Rupert Murdoch, Hannity’s erstwhile boss, has referred to Hannity as “a moron”, and, at least according to Murdoch chronicler Michael Wolff, Hannity was playing the jester, for a jab of ratings heroin. But he is a slavish Trump stalwart, following him like a daddy figure, perhaps explained by his recent anecdote: “By the way, when my father would hit me with a belt, I didn’t actually raise my voice. We used to be the land of the free, home of the brave. What happened? When did we become the land of the snowflake?” Hannity’s cri de coeur was more revelatory of the underlying psychology of authoritarianism than anything he has ever said.Trump doesn’t need the quotidian grief of being speaker when he can direct the inmates of the asylum by remote control, and, anyway, he’s busy in and out of court. But the fake speaker ploy presented itself as a terrific, if brief, opportunity for playacting and grifting, like the fake electors scheme without the real life truth and consequences.After Trump retreated from glowering at the defendant’s table in the Manhattan courtroom for several days, using the occasion to gin up a round of contributions, Letitia James pronounced, “The Donald Trump show is over.” But once that episode of the show ended, the special episode of Speaker Trump appeared on the schedule. When he was in the courtroom, he retweeted a drawing of himself seated next to Jesus, with the caption: “This is the most accurate court sketch of all time.” Then he tweeted a photo-shopped picture of himself in the speaker’s chair, wearing a red Maga cap and in his right hand lifting up the gavel. He had passed from crucifixion to resurrection in less time than Jesus. Hail, Trump!Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeted ecstatically, “If Trump becomes Speaker of the House, the chamber will be like a Trump rally everyday!! It would be the House of MAGA!!!” But this Trump candidacy was a speaker-for-a-day con. Trump announced his endorsement of Representative Jim Jordan, founder of the rightwing Freedom Caucus, who had harassed two previous Republican speakers out of their chairs, run against McCarthy and, most importantly, was a co-conspirator in the January 6 coup attempt. For the speakership, Jordan faces Representative Steve Scalise, McCarthy’s majority leader, a get-along-go-along kind of guy, a wholly owned subsidiary of the oil industry, the candidate of K Street corporate lobbyists.Jordan had stonewalled a subpoena from the House January 6 committee to testify to his involvement. He had mobilized the “Stop the Steal” movement months before the election, was the key member of the House in White House meetings plotting how to stymie the certification of the electoral college count, texted White House chief of staff Mark Meadows on 5 January to put pressure on then vice-president Mike Pence to “call out all electoral votes that he believes are unconstitutional as no electoral votes at all”, and on the phone strategizing with Trump throughout the fateful day. That evening, after the devastation, he led 139 representatives to object to certification.If section 3 of the 14th amendment, enacted after the civil war, barring former Confederates who “shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion” from holding federal office, applies to Trump, as two prominent conservative legal scholars have argued, then even more clearly and forcefully it applied to members of Congress, including Jim Jordan. After initially agreeing that Trump should be disqualified, Federalist Society co-founder Steven Calabresi, professor of law at Northwestern University, flipped, citing an article by Michael Mukasey, former attorney general under President George W Bush, that argued the provision did not cover the former president but only members of the Congress and other “officers of the United States”. However tendentious the argument, Mukasey – and Calabresi – had inadvertently made the case for disqualifying Jordan and the others who voted against certification on 6 January 2021 from serving in office at all.McCarthy’s fall has been another stepping stone for Trump’s return to power. Trump has announced he will go to the Capitol to intervene in the speaker contest and address the House Republican Conference. The last time he wanted to visit, to march with the January 6 mob, he was restrained by a secret service agent whom he allegedly grabbed by the throat. Trump would be the only member of the J6 prison choir to come to the Capitol since then. He had joined the jailed insurrectionists who had formed a singing group by overlaying his recital of the Pledge of Allegiance on their version of The Star Spangled Banner. Trump has promised “full pardons with an apology to many” of those convicted of rampaging through the Capitol’s corridors chanting, “Hang Mike Pence!” Now, Trump says he would return there as “a unifier”.But, first, he took time to trash his former chief of staff Gen John Kelly, who confirmed on 3 October to CNN that Trump had disparaged wounded, captured and tortured soldiers as “suckers” and “losers”. Kelly offered a description of Trump: “A person that has no idea what America stands for and has no idea what America is all about … A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators. A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our constitution and the rule of law. There is nothing more that can be said. God help us.”After endorsing Jim Jordan, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Kelly was “by far the dumbest of my Military people … He was incapable of doing a good job, it was too much for him, and I couldn’t stand the guy, so I fired him like a ‘dog.’”The “wannabe dictator”, as Gen Milley calls him, is without theory or fig leaf. As the trials bear down, as Trump contemplates the shark or electrocution, he projects his The Pit and the Pendulum terror into violent threats. The greater the fear he feels, the more violent the threats. He is stalked by Thanatos. “DEATH!”
      Sidney Blumenthal is the author of The Permanent Campaign, published in 1980, and All the Power of the Earth: The Political Life of Abraham Lincoln, 1856-1860, the third of a projected five volumes. He is the former assistant and senior adviser to President Bill Clinton and senior adviser to Hillary Clinton More

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      Top Republican urges party to end ‘civil war’ and elect House speaker this week

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      Republicans in Washington need to elect a new speaker “this week” and end the party’s “civil war” in the House that is sending a message to the world of dysfunction, especially amid the conflict unfolding in Israel, a senior GOP figure said on Sunday.The Texas Republican congressman Mike McCaul, chairman of the House foreign affairs committee, urged his own party in the House to unify because “we have got to move quickly, we cannot paralyze democracy, especially when we have hotspots all over the world… and I’m just worried about the messaging this sends.”A small group of hard-right House Republicans last week managed to force out speaker and California Republican Kevin McCarthy, against the wishes of moderate colleagues, in an unprecedented move to punish him for allying with Democrats to prevent a government shutdown. McCarthy had only served in the post since January when he scraped through an unparalleled 15 rounds of voting.In an interview with CNN’s State of the Union show on Sunday morning, McCaul said it was important for the House, which cannot pass legislation without a speaker, to reboot “so that we can get things to the floor”, such as a bipartisan resolution condemning the attack by Hamas militants on Israel and action to help with Israel “replenishing” its Iron Dome anti-missile system.“It’s too dangerous a time right now to be playing games with national security,” he said, also expressing hope that the fighting in Israel does not escalate and spread.McCaul said of there were worries about an expansion of the crisis unfolding in southern Israel.“If this lights up into a larger jihadist war against the zionist, if you will, that’s always what keeps everyone up at night,” he said.Meanwhile, McCaul thought the House Republican conference was “ready to unify around one speaker and not have this civil war”. The rightwing congressmen Jim Jordan of Ohio, who has been backed by former president Donald Trump, and Steve Scalise of Louisiana are the current leading contenders to succeed McCarthy and votes are expected on Wednesday.“It was not my idea to oust the speaker, I thought it was dangerous…[considering] all the threats that are out there,” McCaul said in the CNN interview.“What kind of message are we sending to our adversaries when we cannot govern, when we are dysfunctional, when we don’t even have a speaker of the House? I mean how does Chairman Xi of China look at that when he says democracy doesn’t work, how does the Ayatollah [of Iran] look at this, knowing that we cannot function properly?” McCaul said, referring to Chinese president Xi Jinping.He said he thought either Jordan or Scalise “can provide solidarity”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe House minority leader and New York Democratic congressman, Hakeem Jeffries, also told CNN’s State of the Union that “it’s time for the GOP to end the Republican civil war…[because] we need to get things done” on Capitol Hill.Matt Gaetz, the Florida congressman, who instigated the ousting of McCarthy last week, said on NBC’s Meet the Press that there would be a new speaker this week and House Republicans would be “back on track” and “invigorated”.He called the crisis in Israel “horrifying” but said the situation in the House would not stop the US coming to Israel’s aid.The Republican presidential candidate for 2024 and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie said on ABC’s This Week that even without the events in Israel the ousting of the speaker of the House by a small GOP faction was “wholly irresponsible”. More

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      RFK Jr is poised for a 2024 run as an independent. Which side should be worried?

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      For months, Republicans have been reveling in Robert F Kennedy Jr’s presidential bid.Running in the Democratic primary against Joe Biden, the hope has been that Kennedy could weaken the president ahead of a presumed Biden-Trump match-up in 2024.But with Kennedy expected to announce that he will ditch the Democratic party and run as an independent, some commentators are suggesting that conservatives’ schadenfreude could come back to haunt them.That’s because of the curious case of Kennedy’s political appeal.It turns out that the son of Robert F Kennedy and nephew of John F Kennedy, Democratic giants who maintain widespread admiration in the party, is actually more popular among Republicans – including some of the most influential rightwing voices in the US.Kennedy, Steve Bannon said on his War Room podcast in April, would be “an excellent choice” for Trump’s running mate.Charlie Kirk, founder of the rightwing Turning Point USA, has praised Kennedy. So has Michael Flynn, Trump’s former national security advisor and QAnon enthusiast.The noted rightwing crank Alex Jones added his endorsement on his InfoWars show.“I don’t agree with Robert F Kennedy Jr on some topics, but he’s a man of integrity that fights fluoride and poison shots and fentanyl and everything else. He’s a good man,” said Jones, who last year was ordered to pay nearly $1bn to relatives of the Sandy Hook elementary school shooting victims, after he falsely claimed the shooting was a hoax.The support for Kennedy from fluoridated-water-lowers-IQ-and-or-causes-cancer Republicans makes sense. Kennedy, 69, is a man who never met a conspiracy theory he didn’t like.In the last few months alone, the former environmental lawyer has said that wifi causes “leaky brain”, and linked antidepressants to school shootings. In June Kennedy said chemicals in water are making kids transgender and and declared that US support for Ukraine to be “a setup by the neocons and the CIA”. He also has longstanding, and wrong, beliefs about apparently any and all vaccines.Kennedy first announced he was considering a run for the Democratic nomination in March, in a speech that, true to form, was banned from YouTube for violating the platform’s “medical misinformation” policies.In April, he announced his candidacy for real, in a video that has not yet been removed from YouTube, and soon some polls showed that up to 20% of Democratic primary voters would pledge for Kennedy.If, as expected, Kennedy is to run as an independent, those numbers would suggest he could strip votes from Biden.Not so, said Steffen Schmidt, professor emeritus in the department of political science at Iowa State University.“Kennedy is an IED – we don’t know [when] he’s going to blow and on whom,” Schmidt said.Schmidt said there may have been early “sentimental” appeal for Kennedy among Democrats, given his family’s history. Biden’s age – a recent poll showed a majority of Democrats believe the president is too old to be effective for four more years – might have also been a factor in liberals considering a different candidate.“And then they began to hear the menu of things, his conspiracy theories and all that, and they began to see him on Fox News and all kinds of other conservative media, and the honeymoon was over,” Schmidt said.That slew of appearances on conservative media, and at rightwing events – Kennedy has previously appeared at a show hosted by ReAwaken America, described by PBS as “a petri dish for Christian nationalism” – have made him popular among Republican voters, many of whom are still in thrall to Donald Trump, another noted conspiracy theorist.A FiveThirtyEight review of eight polls on Kennedy’s popularity in both parties found that he was actually better liked among Republicans than Democrats, which Schmidt attributed to his conspiratorial beliefs. (Kennedy has also said that 5G towers could “control our behavior” and suggested HIV is not the cause of Aids. He has been accused of racism and antisemitism over claims – partly withdrawn – that Covid-19 was “ethnically targeted” at Caucasians and Black people, while sparing Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people, while in July the Congressional Integrity Project, a political watchdog, released a report that details Kennedy’s meetings with and promotion of racists, antisemites and extremist conspiracy theorists.“He has conspiracy theories, including his anti-vaccine position, which is very popular among conservative Republicans,” Schmidt said. “There’s a pretty formidable list of things that would appeal to a more fringy group on the Republican side.”Kennedy is already attracting Republican donors: in July Axios reported that a “small but growing number” of donors had given heavily to the presidential campaigns of both Kennedy – when he was still running as a Democrat – and Republican candidates.“Republicans put a lot of effort and money into getting visibility because they thought that was going to hurt Joe Biden and now it looks more like it’s going to backfire on them. I’m not a gambling man. But if I had to put $1,000 on the table in Las Vegas, I would put it on Republicans losing some votes in some states to him and not the Democrats,” Schmidt said.“Although with RFK Jr, there will be people who will lose some sleep on both sides. Biden supporters and staffers, as well as some of the Trump campaign people will be worried as to what’s going to happen.”For all the talk of Kennedy’s potential effect, there is near universal agreement that, as an independent, he will not win the presidential election.“Independent candidates typically will carve away support from one of the major parties,” said Emmitt Y Riley III, associate professor of political science and Africana studies at DePauw University and president of the National Conference of Black Political Scientists.“But the problem is most voters in the US will claim that they are independents, when in actuality they’re more partisan than people who identify with political parties. And people like the label ‘independent’, but their politics isn’t independent at all.”There is some precedent for independent and third-party candidates having an effect in presidential elections, including Ross Perot, who won 19% of the popular vote in the 1992 race between George HW Bush and Bill Clinton.In 2000, George W Bush beat Al Gore by 537 votes in Florida, which clinched Bush the presidency. Ralph Nader, running on the Green party ticket, won 97,421 votes in the state, and Democrats – including Joe Biden – blamed him for Gore’s loss.“Ralph Nader is not going to be welcome anywhere near the corridors [of Congress]. Nader cost us the election,” Biden told the Guardian at the time.Similarly, a CNN analysis of Trump’s 2016 win found that Jill Stein, the Green party presidential candidate and Gary Johnson representing the Libertarian party, did well enough “in several states arguably to help elect Donald Trump”.The financial might of the Democratic and Republican parties, however, means independents or third party candidates will always face an uphill battle. The electoral college system, in which a successful candidate must win the vote in numerous states, is another obstacle.And while exposure hasn’t been a problem for Kennedy, at least among rightwing media, he will face difficulties making it into the presidential debates, which are watched by millions.Kennedy could also face an Icarus moment, should he be seen as drawing too much support from either of the main parties.“If he wants to run, run. Fine,” a source close to the Trump campaign told the Daily Beast after rumors of Kennedy’s independent effort began to circulate.“But if he chooses to run as an independent, then he’s our opponent.”Not everyone agrees that Kennedy’s campaign will be most damaging to Trump, however. Riley said that given the lack of enthusiasm for Biden at large – his public approval rating has been below 50% for more than two years – and continuing concerns over the economy, plus the enthusiasm of Trump’s base, Democrats should be more worried.“I’m not convinced that he will threaten Trump. I think the core supporters who support Donald Trump are typically rich white conservatives, and conservatives who have negative racial attitudes.“And as a result, the way in which he’s been able to prime support among these particular voters, I think Trump has a solid core of voters who will support him. I don’t think any of the voters who are voting for Trump are swing voters, or voters that are on the fence.”On Kennedy’s side, so far is a demonstrated ability to bring in lots of money, including $5m given to an affiliated Super Pac by a Trump donor. He’s not young, but he’s younger than Biden and Trump, in an election where age may become a factor.While Kennedy and his novel beliefs are mostly a benign fascination at the moment, the consequences of him forging a strong independent run could be serious.“I think if Trump wins the election, we’re gonna see the nation move more towards authoritarianism,” Riley said.“We’re going to see more erosion of our democratic norms, I think we’re going to be in trouble. America can no longer sell itself as a republic, or even as a democratic form of government – with a president who disrespects our democratic institutions.“I think that this is one of the most consequential inventions of our time.” More

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      ‘They didn’t stand up to Trump’: how the Republican party descended into disarray

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      They are fresh-faced, suited and booted, the National Mall behind them and the world at their feet. Congressmen Eric Cantor, Kevin McCarthy and Paul Ryan smile out from the cover of Young Guns, their co-authored 2010 book about the next generation of conservatives. “This isn’t your grandfather’s Republican party,” said publicity material at the time.Thirteen years later, the trio is neither young nor the future. Cantor (“the leader”) became Republican leader in the House of Representatives but lost his seat to a nascent rightwing populism. Ryan (“the thinker”) became speaker but retired early to escape a toxic political relationship with President Donald Trump. And this week McCarthy (“the strategist”) was ousted by some of the extremists he helped elect to Congress but could not tame.The men’s careers chart the Republican party’s journey from disciplined machine to dysfunctional malaise. Like Britain’s Conservative party, Republicans were once admired and feared for their ability to fall into line and ruthlessly consolidate power. But on Tuesday, as eight rebels joined Democrats to visit humiliation on McCarthy, the party of Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan was in turmoil – and nearly came to blows.“I’ll be really candid, I think if we had stayed together in the meeting last night, I think you would have seen fists thrown,” Congressman Garret Graves, an ally of McCarthy, told CNN. “And I’m not being dramatic when I say that. There is a lot of raw emotion right now.”Such a scene would have been unthinkable two decades ago when Republicans were effective at wielding power and pushing through laws relating to everything from foreign wars and domestic surveillance programmes to Medicare and the No Child Left Behind schools policy. Tom DeLay, House majority leader from 2003 to 2006, was dubbed “the Hammer” because of his willingness to crush dissent.Kurt Bardella, a former Republican congressional aide, said: “They were a legislative juggernaut. But that changed in the 2010s with the emergence of the Tea Party. The disruptive factions within the Republican party began to splinter away from the traditional, more pragmatic conservatism that we saw in the 2000s.“Whether it was [Speaker John] Boehner, Cantor, Paul Ryan or Kevin McCarthy, none of them was equipped to be able to manage that. None of them was equipped to prevent their own demise. It’s basically a Maga hitlist at this point, when you look at Cantor, Ryan and McCarthy on the cover of that book.”McCarthy had, as campaign chairman, played a central role in 2010 in recruiting dozens of Tea Party conservatives who took control of the House. He shared their views on fiscal restraint but underestimated their darker impulses: distrust in government, racial hostility to Barack Obama and a conviction that the base had been betrayed by the elites.It was fertile territory for Trump, who in 2015 and 2016 fused celebrity culture with economic discontent and white grievance to knock the Republican party back on its heels. Joe Walsh, a former Tea Party conservative who served in Congress, said: “The one thing Trump got right was he understood how weak the party establishment was, and so they were in no position to fight him.“When he came on the scene in 15 and 16, the base was pissed off. The establishment ignored the base for years. People like me inflamed the base, so when Trump got there the base was ready to just dictate shit. The donors in the establishment have never understood that.”Republicans at the time such as Tara Setmayer, a former communications director who worked on Capitol Hill for seven years, believed the party needed to reach young voters, women and minorities to survive. But the ascent of Trump sent it spinning in the opposite direction, with consequences that still reverberate today.“That was the inflection point,” Setmayer said. “It was political expediency instead of standing up for what was right. If enough people had stood up to Donald Trump they could have beaten him back. But they didn’t, and they let it get away from them. They mistakenly thought they could control him and it was a case of a political Frankenstein’s monster.”Ryan, then the speaker, clung to the hope that Trump would mature, moderate and become “presidential” once in office. It proved to be folly. Ryan appreciated the tax cuts and military spending but, after two years, had to accept that the “Make America great again” forces could not be contained. He bowed out of public life.The baton passed to McCarthy, who had an advantage: with Democrats in control of the House, Republicans had reason to bury their differences and unite in opposition to Speaker Nancy Pelosi. But last year’s midterm elections sowed the seeds of his downfall.Republicans emerged with a much thinner majority than opinion polls had predicted. In January it took McCarthy 15 rounds of voting to be elected speaker after cutting a deal with the far right, including a rule change that would let any member of the House to seek his removal. Nine rocky months later, after averting a government shutdown with Democratic help, he became the first speaker in history to be ditched.Democrat Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader, said on Wednesday: “All three of them were chased out. Speaker Boehner, Speaker Ryan and now Speaker McCarthy have all learned the same lesson: you cannot allow the hard right to run the House, or the country.”McCarthy’s nemesis was Matt Gaetz, a Florida congressman egged on by former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, who hosts an influential podcast (Gaetz was a guest on it a day after McCarthy’s demise). Critics say Gaetz is taking advantage of an era in which, instead of working their way up the ranks one committee at a time, politicians can build their brand, “go viral” and raise money by flaunting their extremism in the rightwing media ecosystem.Rich Lowry, editor-in-chief of National Review magazine, wrote: “Republican backbenchers used to be people such as Jack Kemp and Paul Ryan, who became something by promoting ideas that they carefully developed, sincerely believed, and persuaded their colleagues to embrace. Now, the emphasis is on becoming a micro-celebrity via constant outrage.”Bardella, a former spokesperson for the conservative Breitbart News who is now a Democratic strategist, added: “Matt Gaetz isn’t the cause. He’s a symptom of the complete radicalisation of not only the Republican party a the conservative rightwing media sphere in general.“Their deliberate decision to amplify the most extreme voices and give them a platform and give them a microphone and give them an audience every single night of the most ardent Republican primary voters to watch it, absorb it, paved the way for the chaos that has engulfed the entire Republican party right now.”It seems likely to get worse before it gets better. Without a speaker, the House cannot fully function to pass laws or fund the government. Steve Scalise, the majority leader, and Jim Jordan, the judiciary committee chairman, are the two leading candidates to succeed McCarthy and frantically chasing endorsements ahead of a vote among Republicans expected on Tuesday.A long, divisive struggle could ensue while Democrats remain united, making a mockery of the temptingly alliterative headline “Dems in disarray”. Now the roles have been reversed. Even Trump wondered aloud: “Why is it that Republicans are always fighting among themselves?”Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, said: “We now see [that] the kind of authoritarian populism that talks about taking control, bringing order and strongman rule is an utter fiction.“That rhetoric has led to anarchy and the breakdown of governance and, just to bring it full circle, we’re now almost assuredly going to hear Trump and other Republican presidential candidates running on the promise to bring order to Washington to solve the very disorder they created.”He added: “We are in some very weird Alice in Wonderland politics here. The problems created by the fanatics in the Republican party have created a disorder that they are claiming they can solve.” More

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      The Republican party is at last paying the price of its Faustian pact with Trump | Michael Cohen

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      More than 11 years ago, before Donald Trump emerged from the primordial ooze of the far-right fever swamp, before the aborted January 6 insurrection and before the latest spasm of Republican extremism felled House speaker Kevin McCarthy, two renowned political scientists, Thomas Mann, and Norman Ornstein, put their finger on the essence of increasingly dysfunctional US politics: the Republican party. Mann and Ornstein argued that the Grand Old Party (GOP) had become an “insurgent outlier” that was “ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition”.Eleven years later, the enfant terrible of American politics has somehow got unimaginably worse. The GOP today is less a political party and more an inchoate mass of cultural grievances, conspiracy theories and lowest common denominator political slogans. Trump, for all his toxicity, is a symptom of the GOP’s decades-long descent into madness. Legislating is not seen as a tool for bettering the plight of the American people but rather an opportunity to troll Democrats and play to the perceived slights of the party’s rank-and-file supporters.But Republican indifference to governing is, perhaps, the least of the party’s pathologies. In slavishly supporting Trump and his Maga – Make America Great Again – supporters, they have empowered a political movement that is increasingly testing the limits of the US democratic experiment.McCarthy’s political trajectory tells the sorry tale. After January 6, McCarthy, who, along with his political colleagues, was forced to hide from the marauding insurrectionists, turned against the man responsible for the day’s violence. Privately, he told fellow Republicans: “I’ve had it with this guy”. But within weeks, he travelled to the ex-president’s palatial digs in South Florida and, on bended knee, pledged loyalty to the GOP’s orange god. He tried to block a bipartisan congressional committee to investigate January 6 and allied himself with conspiracy theorists who continued to spread lies about the 2020 election. Earlier this year, he gave in to Republican extremists and announced an impeachment inquiry of Joe Biden, even though there is no evidence that the president has committed any impeachable offences.McCarthy, like countless Republican supplicants over the past eight years, realised that his political aspirations were directly tied to his willingness to support Trump and the extremist forces within the party that have rallied around him. In a tale as old as time, he made a deal with the devil, only to be burned by the political forces he’d empowered. Trump’s hold over the Republican party is so complete that it borders on the pathological. Since March, he has been indicted four times and charged with 91 separate felonies. Yet his poll numbers among Republicans have dramatically improved. He enjoys a more than 45-point lead in the race for the party’s presidential nomination.There simply is no future in the GOP for an elected official who refuses to prostate themselves to Trump. Liz Cheney was the most vocal and impassioned Republican in speaking out against him after January 6. Her reward: McCarthy engineered her removal from the GOP House leadership. Then, in 2022, a Maga Republican challenged Cheney in a GOP primary and defeated her by nearly 40 points. Another Republican apostate, former presidential candidate and current Utah senator Mitt Romney, who twice voted to convict Trump in his impeachment trials, recently announced that he wouldn’t run for re-election.In a series of interviews with the Atlantic’s McKay Coppins, he recounted how, “in public”, his fellow Republican senators “played their parts as Trump loyalists, often contorting themselves rhetorically to defend the president’s most indefensible behaviour. But in private, they ridiculed his ignorance, rolled their eyes at his antics and made incisive observations about his warped, toddler-like psyche.”Like other principled Republicans, Romney is choosing to walk away, and it’s hard to blame him. His criticisms of Trump have led to death threats and he is now spending an estimated $5,000 a day on private security. But the result is that the GOP’s ranks are now increasingly filled by those with bottomless reservoirs of ambition and empty cupboards of integrity. So for those hoping that a principled and mature Republican party will somehow emerge from this mess, think again. The political incentives in the GOP run in a singular direction – to the far right. If there is any silver lining, it is this: for all the Republican voters who love Trump, there is a larger mobilised group of voters who loathes him.Indeed, what is perhaps most striking about Trump is the static nature of his political support. In fact, if one compares his approval ratings from February 2020 – before the Covid pandemic ravaged the nation – to those in November 2020, when he ran for re-election, they were largely unchanged. Since leaving office, his approval numbers have also largely stayed the same. Americans have, by and large, made up their minds about Trump – and the verdict is: “We don’t like him.”The last three US elections prove the point. In what was largely seen as a rebuke to Trump, in the 2018 midterms, Democrats picked up more than 40 seats and control of the House of Representatives. In 2020, he lost re-election by at least 7m votes to Biden(4m more than he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016). In the 2022 midterms, the Democrats dramatically overperformed, picking up a seat in the Senate and barely losing the House of Representatives. So far this year, in dozens of special elections, Democrats are overperforming by a whopping 11 points. Part of this is a byproduct of the supreme court’s decision on abortion rights, but it’s also a backlash to the extremism that Trump has engendered.Of course, elections are tricky things and there is no guarantee that the unpopular Biden will emerge victorious next November. But take his current lousy polling with a grain of salt. It’s one thing to want a different Democratic nominee, as many Democrats do, but elections are about choices. That the likely option for voters in November 2024 will be Biden, or a deeply unstable opponent who could be a multiple convicted felon, has a way of narrowing one’s focus. But even if Trump loses, the problem of the Republican party will still be with us long after he’s left the political scene. More

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      Democracy Awakening review: Heather Cox Richardson’s necessary US history

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      In a media landscape so polluted by politicians addicted to cheap thrills (Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Orange Monster) and the pundits addicted to them (Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, Steve Bannon), the success of Heather Cox Richardson is much more than a blast of fresh air. It’s a bona fide miracle.The Boston College history professor started writing her newsletter, Letters from an American, almost four years ago. Today her daily dose of common sense about the day’s news, wrapped in an elegant package of American history, has a remarkable 1.2 million subscribers, making her the most popular writer on Substack. Not since Edward P Morgan captivated the liberal elite with his nightly 15-minute broadcasts in the 1960s has one pundit been so important to so many progressive Americans at once.In the age of social media, Richardson’s success is counterintuitive. When she was profiled by Ben Smith in the New York Times a couple of years ago, Smith confessed he was so addicted to Twitter he rarely found the time to open her “rich summaries” of the news. When he told Bill Moyers, one of Richardson’s earliest promoters, the same thing, the great commentator explained: “You live in a world of thunderstorms, and she watches the waves come in.”Richardson’s latest book shares all the intelligence of her newsletter. It doesn’t have the news value of her internet contributions but it is an excellent primer for anyone who needs the important facts of the last 150 years of American history – and how they got us to the sorry place we inhabit today.Like other recent books, including The Destructionists by Dana Milbank, Richardson’s new volume reminds us that far from being an outlier, Donald Trump was inevitable after 70 years of Republican pandering to big business, racism and Christian nationalism.So many direct lines can be drawn from the dawn of modern conservatism to the insanity of the Freedom Caucus today. It was William F Buckley Jr, the most famous conservative pundit of his era, who in 1951 attacked universities for teaching “secularism and collectivism” and promoted the canard that liberals were basically communists. Among Buckley’s mortal enemies, Richardson writes, were everyone “who believed that the government should regulate business, protect social welfare, promote infrastructure and protect civil rights” – and who “believed in fact-based argument”.In place of the liberal consensus that emerged with Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, Buckley and his henchmen wanted a new “orthodoxy of religion and the ideology of free markets”. A few years later, the Republican presidential nominee Barry Goldwater ran on a platform opposing the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Four years after that, Richard Nixon’s Southern Strategy included promises to slow down the desegregation the supreme court had ordered 14 years before.In one of the most notorious dog whistles of all time, Ronald Reagan began his 1980 presidential campaign by declaring his love for states’ rights in Philadelphia, Mississippi – made infamous by the murders of the civil rights workers James Chaney, Andrew Goodman and Michael Schwerner in 1964.Since the 1950s, Richardson writes, conservatives have fought to destroy “the active government of the liberal consensus, and since the 1980s, Republican politicians [have] hacked away at it” but still “left much of the government intact”. With Trump’s election in 2016, the nation had finally “put into office a president who would use his power to destroy it”. Republicans fought for 50 years for an “end to business regulation and social services and the taxes they required”. Trump went even further by “making the leap from oligarchy to authoritarianism”.Richardson is refreshingly direct about the importance of the fascist example to Trump and his Maga movement. When he used the White House to host the Republican convention in 2020, the first lady, Melania Trump, wore a “dress that evoked a Nazi uniform”. And, Richardson writes, the big lie was a “key propaganda tool” for the Nazis, which Hitler himself explained in Mein Kampf, the book Trump may have kept on his night table at Trump Tower (or maybe it was a collection of Hitler’s speeches).Richardson even uses the psychological profile of Hitler by the Office of Strategic Services, the US intelligence agency during the second world war, to remind us of similarities to Trump. The OSS said Hitler’s “primary rules were: never allow the public to cool off; never admit a fault or wrong; never concede that there may be some good in your enemy … never accept blame; concentrate on one enemy at a time and blame him for everything that goes wrong”.But Richardson’s book isn’t just a recitation of the evil of Republicans. It is also a celebration of progressive successes. She reminds us that before Vietnam ruined his presidency, Lyndon Johnson compiled an incredible record. In one session, Congress passed an astonishing 84 laws. Johnson’s “Great Society” included the Voting Rights Act of 1965; the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, which provided federal aid for public schools; launched Head Start for the early education of low-income children; the social security amendments that created Medicare; increased welfare payments; rent subsidies; the Water Quality Act of 1965; and the National Endowment for the Arts and the National Endowment for the Humanities.These laws had a measurable impact. “Forty million Americans were poor in 1960”; by 1969, that had dropped to 24 million.Addressing graduates of the University of Michigan in 1964, Johnson used words that are apt today:“For better or worse, your generation has been appointed by history to … lead America toward a new age … You can help build a society where the demands of morality, and the needs of the spirit, can be realized in the life of the nation.”Johnson rejected the “timid souls” who believed “we are condemned to a soulless wealth. We have the power to shape the civilization that we want. But we need your will, your labor, your hearts, if we are to build that kind of society.”
      Democracy Awakening is published in the US by Viking More