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      George Santos expelled: New York governor to call special election to fill seat – as it happened

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      With George Santos expelled from the House, New York governor Kathy Hochul will have to call a special election within the next 10 days, according to New York law.In a post shortly after his expulsion, Hochul said that she is prepared to “undertake the solemn responsibility of filling the vacancy in New York’s 3rd district.”She went on to add, “The people of Long Island deserve nothing less.”The special election is required to take place between 70 and 80 days later, which means an election day would occur some time next February or March.According to New York’s election law, local party leaders will be required to choose their candidates for the special election. The winner of the election will go on to complete the remainder of Santos’s term.Last month, Santos said that will not be running for re-election. In a fiery press conference on Thursday, he told reporters, “The future is endless… I’m going to do whatever I want. Whatever comes my way, I have the desire to stay very much involved in public policy and advocacy for specific issues.”Following Santos’s expulsion, House Democratic super PAC announced plans to “play a significant role in the NY-03 special election,” CNN’s Manu Raju reports.Its president Mike Smith said that the group “will do whatever it takes to flip this district blue.”Meanwhile, Anna Kaplan, a former Democratic New York state senator, has announced that she is “battle tried and tested” to take on the vacant seat.In a post on X, Kaplan wrote:
      “George Santos has officially been expelled. A special election is now right around the corner. It’s time to restore integrity to New York’s 3rd Congressional District. I am battle tried and tested. I am ready. If chosen as our party’s nominee, I will flip this seat blue. We will win.”
      It is 4pm in Washington DC. Here is a wrap-up of the day’s key events:
      New York’s Republican representative George Santos was expelled from the House in a 311-114 vote. The vote to expel Santos, the second since his election last year, required a two-thirds majority of those present. Santos therefore becomes only the sixth member ever expelled from the US House. The first three fought for the Confederacy in the civil war. The other two were expelled after being convicted of crimes.
      Two Democrats voted against expelling George Santos. Georgia’s representative Nikema Williams and Robert C. Scott voted nays, while Democratic representatives Jonathan Jackson of Illinois and Al Green of Texas voted present.
      Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, a New Yorker, has released the following statement on George Santos’s expulsion: “Long Island and Queens deserve better.”
      California’s Democratic representative Adam Schiff, who voted yes on George Santos’s expulsion, released a statement in which he called the expulsion “justified.” “George Santos misappropriated hundreds of thousands of dollars of campaign money, stole donor identities to fund his extravagant lifestyle, and has been indicted for fraud and financial crimes. I voted yes,” Schiff said.
      New York governor Kathy Hochul said that she is “prepared to undertake the solemn responsibility of filing the vacancy in New York’s 3rd district.” In a post on X following George Santos’s expulsion, Hochul added:“The people of Long Island deserve nothing less.”
      Hochul also said that she will announce the date for a special election in New York’s third district within the next days.” In a tweet on Thursday, Hochul added: “I take this responsibility seriously, and am committed to ensuring there will be a Member of Congress who can serve Nassau and Queens Counties.”
      The special election is required to take place between 70 and 80 days later, which means an election day would occur some time next February or March. According to New York’s election law, local party leaders will be required to choose their candidates for the special election. The winner of the election will go on to complete the remainder of Santos’s term.
      Following Santos’s expulsion, House Democratic super PAC announced plans to “play a significant role in the NY-03 special election,” CNN’s Manu Raju reports. Its president Mike Smith said that the group “will do whatever it takes to flip this district blue.”
      Anna Kaplan, a former Democratic New York state senator, has announced that she is “battle tried and tested” to take on the vacant seat. In a post on X, Kaplan wrote: “George Santos has officially been expelled. A special election is now right around the corner. It’s time to restore integrity to New York’s 3rd Congressional district. I am battle tried and tested. I am ready. If chosen as our party’s nominee, I will flip this seat blue. We will win.”
      Flowers have been laid – and picked up – from the office of George Santos following his expulsion from the House, according to photos surfacing on social media.Meanwhile, other pictures posted online showed people taking selfies outside of Santos’s office.New York’s Democratic representative Ritchie Torres said on Friday that George Santos’s “legacy lives on through a bill I named after him: the SANTOS Act.”Torres went on to say that the bill “holds Congressional candidates accountable for lying to the public.”“STOP ANOTHER NON-TRUTHFUL OFFICE SEEKER,” he added.Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, a New Yorker, has released the following statement on George Santos’s expulsion:
      “Long Island and Queens deserve better.”
      The locks have been changed on expelled George Santos’s office on Capitol Hill following Friday’s House vote that pushed him out of his seat.New York’s governor Kathy Hochul said that she will announce the date for a special election in New York’s third district within the next days.”In a tweet on Thursday, Hochul added:
      “I take this responsibility seriously, and am committed to ensuring there will be a Member of Congress who can serve Nassau and Queens Counties.”
      With a special election due to be called within days – and election day looming early in 2024, let’s take a look at some of the likely candidates:DemocratsTom SuozziSuozzi represented New York’s third district before Santos did – and he wants his job back. The Democratic former Congressman announced in October that he wants to make a comeback. In his statement at the time, he said he wanted to bring “sanity and reason” back to Washington.Anna KaplanThe former Democratic New York state senator has announced that she is “battle tried and tested” to take on the vacant seat.Kaplan did not waste time throwing her hat in the ring. In a post on X, she wrote on Friday:
      George Santos has officially been expelled. A special election is now right around the corner. It’s time to restore integrity to New York’s 3rd Congressional District. I am battle tried and tested. I am ready. If chosen as our party’s nominee, I will flip this seat blue. We will win.”
      RepublicansAccording to the New York Times, former NYPD detective Mike Sapraicone is a top candidate.Jack MartinsThe newly elected state senator is also a potential Republican candidate, Newsweek reported. It could help that he has called Santos a fraud and called for his resignation.Mazi PilipPhilp has not said she is running but is under consideration, according to the NYT. She moved from Ethiopia to Israel as a refugee, has served in the Israeli Defense Forces. She is currently a Nassau county legislator.Santos’s expulsion from the House is the latest chapter in what has been a spectacular fall from grace for the New York congressman.The first-term lawmaker was initially celebrated as an up-and-coming star after he flipped his district from Democrats in 2022 and helped Republicans win control of the House.But he has become notorious for a series of claims that have turned out to be untrue. Here is a look back at some of those claims:The House Democratic super PAC has announced plans to “play a significant role in the NY-O3 special election,” CNN’s Manu Raju reports.House majority PAC president Mike Smith said that the group “will do whatever it takes to flip this district blue”.Santos’s victory in 2022 had flipped the district for the Republicans – now Democrats look eager to make that a blip.With George Santos expelled from the House, New York governor Kathy Hochul will have to call a special election within the next 10 days, according to New York law.In a post shortly after his expulsion, Hochul said that she is prepared to “undertake the solemn responsibility of filling the vacancy in New York’s 3rd district.”She went on to add, “The people of Long Island deserve nothing less.”The special election is required to take place between 70 and 80 days later, which means an election day would occur some time next February or March.According to New York’s election law, local party leaders will be required to choose their candidates for the special election. The winner of the election will go on to complete the remainder of Santos’s term.Last month, Santos said that will not be running for re-election. In a fiery press conference on Thursday, he told reporters, “The future is endless… I’m going to do whatever I want. Whatever comes my way, I have the desire to stay very much involved in public policy and advocacy for specific issues.”Following Santos’s expulsion, House Democratic super PAC announced plans to “play a significant role in the NY-03 special election,” CNN’s Manu Raju reports.Its president Mike Smith said that the group “will do whatever it takes to flip this district blue.”Meanwhile, Anna Kaplan, a former Democratic New York state senator, has announced that she is “battle tried and tested” to take on the vacant seat.In a post on X, Kaplan wrote:
      “George Santos has officially been expelled. A special election is now right around the corner. It’s time to restore integrity to New York’s 3rd Congressional District. I am battle tried and tested. I am ready. If chosen as our party’s nominee, I will flip this seat blue. We will win.”
      Two Democrats voted against expelling George Santos.Georgia’s representative Nikema Williams and Robert C. Scott voted nays, while Democratic representatives Jonathan Jackson of Illinois and Al Green of Texas voted present. More

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      Who will replace George Santos in New York swing district?

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      The expulsion of George Santos from Congress on Friday has ramifications beyond the New York Republican’s career prospects.The historic vote has sparked a scramble among Democrats and Republicans to elect a replacement for Santos, who was found by an ethics committee to have used campaign funds for purchases. A special election is likely to take place early next year.Given Santos’s troubles – the now former congressman also faces 23 federal charges including fraud and conspiracy – several candidates had already announced they would run for his seat in New York’s third congressional district.With New York legally required to hold a special election in less than 90 days, the race for Santos’s Long Island district, which voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and was represented by Democrats for 10 years before swinging Republican last year, has dramatically accelerated.There will be no primary in the special election. Instead local Democratic and Republican party leaders will choose the parties’ nominees to replace Santos in a finely balanced House of Representatives – Santos’s expulsion reduced Republicans’ advantage over Democrats in the House of Representatives eight seats: 221-213. Democrats are expected to announce their nominee on Tuesday, with Republicans also likely to reveal their candidate soon.The DemocratsTom Suozzi appears to be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. He was elected to the third congressional district in 2017, but declined to run in 2022, instead announcing a run for governor of New York state. Born and raised in the area, Suozzi announced a bid to reclaim his seat in October.“You know me. I’ve never sat on the sidelines,” Suozzi said in his announcement. A centrist Democrat, he added that “more common sense and compassion” was required in politics, and “less chaos and senseless fighting”.Multiple reports have said Suozzi will be chosen to run, despite a sometimes bitter gubernatorial campaign. Suozzi, 61, repeatedly clashed with Kathy Hochul, the ultimate victor, which did not endear him to Democratic leaders, but his relatively high profile as a former congressman could help.Anna Kaplan, like Suozzi, had announced she was running to replace Santos before he was kicked out of Congress on Friday. Kaplan ran for the third congressional district in 2016 – an election Suozzi ultimately won – before being elected to the New York state senate in 2019.She lost a re-election bid in 2022 amid a Republican wave in Long Island that swept Santos into the House, and in May this year Kaplan said she would run against Santos.“For me, this congressional district is very, very personal. I left a country where I saw the rightwing extremists taking over and stripped women of their rights,” Kaplan, who was born in Iran and moved to the US as a 13-year-old, told City & State New York earlier this year.Robert Zimmerman, the Democratic nominee in 2022 who lost to Santos by seven points, hasn’t announced a run for the third congressional seat, but Axios reported he “could be tapped by party leaders”.Austin Cheng, an army veteran and healthcare CEO, would be a fresher face. The City reported that as of 30 September Cheng had raised the most cash of any of the Democratic candidates – but that might be irrelevant now that party leaders will choose the candidate.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe RepublicansMazi Pilip is among a reported “10 to 15” candidates being considered by the local Republican party. A local politician in Nassau county, which makes up much of the third congressional district, she has relatively little political experience and has not declared her candidacy.Pilip was born in Ethiopia and moved to Israel when she was 13, going on to serve in the Israel Defense Forces. A vocal supporter of Israel, in November she joined with other local legislators in calling for the pro-Palestinian group Students for Justice In Palestine to be banned from university campuses and potentially prosecuted.Mike Sapraicone, a former New York police department detective, is “near the top” of the list being considered by Republicans, according to the New York Times. Sapraicone, who founded a security business after leaving the NYPD, announced his run for Santos’s seat in October.“I think running a business teaches you how to understand people and work together,” Sapraicone told Fox5 NY.Sapraicone’s background as a police officer, and his deep pockets – he has lent his campaign hundreds of thousands of dollars – “could be helpful in a region where public safety has been a top electoral concern and TV ads are expensive”, the New York Times reported.Jack Martins, who won his seat in the New York state senate by defeating Anna Kaplan last year, is another potential nominee. A longtime fixture in New York Republican circles, he ran for Congress in 2016, losing to Suozzi.ABC7 New York reported that Martins, who described Santos as “a fraud” earlier this year, “​​seems hesitant to run, but may be pulled into a special election to hold the seat”. More

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      Florida Republican party chair under investigation for alleged sexual assault

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      The chairman of Florida’s Republican party, Christian Ziegler, is reported to be under investigation for sexual battery – a potential political bombshell in a state that Donald Trump and Governor Ron DeSantis call home.According to heavily redacted police department documents, Ziegler is mentioned in the context of an “active criminal investigation” after an individual reported being “sexually battered” at home in Sarasota on 2 October.The detective’s report mentions a “sexual assault allegation” and “sexual assault complaint” but almost no other information. Only five words survive the redactions: “stated … raped … stated that … raped”, according to Sarasota’s Herald-Tribune and other outlets.Derek Byrd, an attorney for the Republican party chairman, said he was confident his client “will be completely exonerated” and said he had been “fully cooperative with every request made by the Sarasota police department”.“Unfortunately, public figures are often accused of acts that they did not commit whether it be for political purposes or financial gain,” Byrd added. “I would caution anyone not to rush to judgment until the investigation is concluded. Out of respect for the investigation, this is all Mr Ziegler or myself can say at this time.”Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, said in a statement that Ziegler should resign. He told reporters that Ziegler has been a friend, but the “gravity of those situations” meant he could continue leading the party.“He’s innocent till proven guilty, but we just can’t have a party chair that is under that type of scrutiny,” DeSantis said. “The mission is more important.”The police report containing the allegations was first brought to light by Florida Center for Government Accountability’s Florida Trident publication, which says police seized Ziegler’s cellphone and “investigators continue to conduct a forensic examination of the electronic device”, citing only anonymous sources.Sources told the publication that the woman accusing Ziegler “alleged that she and both Zieglers had been involved in a longstanding consensual three-way sexual relationship prior to the incident” and that the incident occurred when Ziegler and the woman were alone at the woman’s house.The Republican party of Sarasota county issued a statement saying the party was “shocked and disappointed” by the reports, adding that it “takes all such allegations of potential criminal conduct very seriously and will fully cooperate with investigators”.The allegations hit as Florida Republicans are preparing for next year’s presidential election with a candidate for the nomination, DeSantis, struggling to make headway against the presumed nominee and Florida transplant, Trump.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionZiegler is a former Sarasota county commissioner who became chairman of the state Republican party in February. His wife, Bridget Ziegler, is a founder of Moms for Liberty (M4L), the parental rights organization that has been at the forefront of efforts to ban or require parental consent for certain LGBTQ+ books and literature in schools and libraries.In a now-deleted X post, M4L said: “Yet another attempt today to ruin the reputation of a strong woman fighting for America … We stand with @BridgetAZiegler & every other badass woman fighting for kids & America.”Bridget Ziegler, who is no longer involved with M4L, was with DeSantis when he signed legislation that came to be known as the “don’t say gay” bill and was appointed to a board that oversees a special district that oversees the Disney-owned Disneyland that DeSantis and state Republicans have feuded with.“As leaders in the Florida GOP and Moms for Liberty, the Zieglers have made a habit out of attacking anything they perceive as going against ‘family values’ – be it reproductive rights or the existence of LGBTQ+ Floridians,” the Florida Democratic party chair, Nikki Fried, said in a statement. “The level of hypocrisy in this situation is stunning.” More

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      George Santos expelled from Congress: a recap of some of his lies – video report

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      The House voted on Friday to expel the Republican George Santos, of New York, after a critical ethics report on his conduct that accused him of converting campaign donations for his own use. He was just the sixth member in the chamber’s history to be ousted by colleagues. The expulsion push is the latest chapter in what has been a spectacular fall from grace for Santos, a first-term lawmaker initially celebrated as an up-and-comer after he flipped a district from Democrats last year and helped Republicans win control of the House. Here is a look back at some of his claims which proved untrue More

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      Republican George Santos expelled from Congress in bipartisan vote

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      The New York Republican, fabulist and accused fraudster George Santos has been expelled from Congress.The vote to expel Santos, the second since his election last year, required a two-thirds majority of those present. The final tally on Friday was 311-114, with two members recorded present and eight absent.Santos therefore becomes only the sixth member ever expelled from the US House. The first three fought for the Confederacy in the civil war. The other two were expelled after being convicted of crimes.Santos has pleaded not guilty to 23 federal fraud charges but has not been tried. A previous expulsion attempt, mounted by members of his own party, failed in part because senior Democrats voted no, citing the dangers of expelling members without convictions secured.But a damning report from the House ethics committee, detailing how Santos used campaign funds for purchases including travel, cosmetic treatment and luxury goods, changed the political equation.Democrats and Republicans introduced motions to force the expulsion vote this week. Mike Johnson, the Republican speaker, sought to persuade Santos to resign – an overture Santos rejected. In the event, Johnson and other senior Republicans voted not to expel. But nor did Johnson attempt to whip his party into line.A majority of Republicans, 112 of 222, voted not to expel. Five did not vote, 105 supporting the motion. Among the New York delegation, 22 members voted for expulsion. Three New York Republicans voted no: Santos himself, Claudia Tenney and Elise Stefanik, the House Republican conference chair.Robert Reich, a Berkeley professor, former US labor secretary and Guardian columnist, said: “George Santos may be gone from Congress, but a majority of Republicans voted against expelling him – including the entire House GOP leadership. The Republican party once again showed that it doesn’t really care about ethics or the law, only power.”Johnson took the gavel to announce the final vote tally. Santos, who stood through the vote with his coat round his shoulders, soon left the chamber.Sharon Eliza Nichols, communications director for Eleanor Holmes Norton, the Democratic delegate for the District of Columbia, alluded to Cinderella when she said: “And just like that, without even a goodbye twirl, George Santos hopped in her carriage and departed.”But he has shown no sign of going quietly. On Thursday, railing against the looming vote, Santos attacked other members, introducing his own expulsion resolution against Jamaal Bowman (a New York Democrat who admitted pulling a fire alarm in a congressional office building, a misdemeanour) and calling Max Miller, a Republican from Ohio, an “accused … woman beater” in a clash on the House floor.Santos’s district must now hold a special election within 90 days. On Friday, the Democratic governor of New York, Kathy Hochul, said she was “prepared to undertake the solemn responsibility of filling the vacancy in New York’s third district. The people of Long Island deserve nothing less.”Santos won the seat as part of a New York Republican “red wave” in the midterm elections last year, a key part of Democrats’ loss of control of the House.But as Santos’s résumé quickly unraveled under press scrutiny, alleged criminal behaviour, in Brazil and the US, was also brought to light.Amid a flood of increasingly bizarre stories, including about Santos’s past as a drag performer in Brazil and a claim to have been a volleyball star at a college he did not attend, Santos admitted embellishing his record but denied wrongdoing.Achieving notoriety, he made common cause with Republican extremists such as Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a prominent Trump ally.Kevin McCarthy, the speaker from January until October, resisted taking action other than withdrawing committee assignments, in large part because the GOP controls the House by a slim margin and Santos backed McCarthy through 15 votes for speaker. In October, when the far right made McCarthy the first speaker ever ejected by his own party, Santos did not support the change.Democrats now hope to retake Santos’s seat, to reduce the Republican majority.In a statement on Friday, the watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, or Crew, said: “George Santos’s pattern of unethical and illegal conduct is shocking and continues to escalate. Expulsion from Congress was appropriate and overdue.“He should have resigned and saved Congress all this trouble. Now he’ll be remembered as only the third member of Congress since the civil war to be expelled.”Adav Noti, legal director for the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center, said the expulsion of Santos showed that “no one is above the law”, and “the power and potential of ethics enforcement”.“While it should not take violations as egregious as those committed by Santos for this system to work effectively … all Americans have the right to financial honesty from members of Congress, and to effective enforcement against any elected official who deprives the voters of that right.”So rapid was Santos’s rise to infamy, he attracted a biographer who worked fast to produce a book released this week, just three days before Santos was kicked out of Congress.On Friday, the author, Mark Chiusano, posted: “Definitely didn’t think I’d be writing a political obit[uary] for Santos … one year after he was elected, but here we are.” More

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      His debate with Gavin Newsom showed Ron DeSantis will never be president | Lloyd Green

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      On Thursday night, Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, reminded the US why he will never be president. His voice grates, his visage a cross between a squinted grimace and scowl. He looks like Manuel Noriega, the ex-Panamanian dictator, without the scarring. On a personal level, he lacks humor, warmth, wit or uplift. He is ham-handed, an awkward social warrior.DeSantis comes across as too hot. This is the guy who picked a fight with Mickey Mouse, his state’s largest employer. He holds degrees from Yale and Harvard, but repeatedly flashes clouded judgment. In other words, there are plenty of reasons why he is getting walloped among Republicans by Donald Trump.“You’re down 41 points in your own home state,” California’s Gavin Newsom happily reminded DeSantis during their televised debate, which Fox moderated.And if you can’t win your own state, you are going nowhere. Recall: Senator Elizabeth Warren lost to Joe Biden in 2020’s Massachusetts primary and never regained her former stature.The dust-up was organized and moderated by Fox’s Sean Hannity, with Fox advertising the gubernatorial cage match – between the governors of two of the US’s largest states – as “DeSantis vs Newsom: The Great Red v Blue State Debate”.Over 90-plus minutes, DeSantis attacked Newsom – whose Republican ex-wife Kimberly Guilfoyle is engaged to Don Jr – without lasting impact. He ran through a litany of California’s woes but couldn’t make them stick. Then again, he carries a ton of baggage, from crime and abortion to January 6 and needless Covid-related deaths. A recent court settlement over Florida’s improper withholding of Covid records highlights the fact that DeSantis’s boasts were empty.Florida is plagued by high murder and gun mortality – as Trump, DeSantis’s bitter rival, is fond of reminding Republican primary voters. DeSantis has dangled the prospect of pardoning January 6 defendants but claims to love the police.By the numbers, Florida’s homicide rate tops California’s (and New York’s, for that matter). Beyond that, Christian Ziegler, the chair of the Florida Republican party, is under investigation for rape and sexual assault. Law and order; traditional family values; whatever.On the debate stage, DeSantis failed to land the blows he needed to rejuvenate his formerly promising campaign. His one-on-one confrontation did nothing to dent Nikki Haley’s rise or bring him any closer to Trump. Air continues to exit DeSantis’s low-flying balloon.He recently received the endorsement of Bob Vander Plaats, an evangelical leader in Iowa, but that gain has yet to move the dial. On the other hand, Haley just this week scored the endorsement of the Kochs’ political network, which translates into money and campaign foot-soldiers, as DeSantis knows from personal experience.“DeSantis wins formal Koch backing as momentum continues to shift,” a Politico headline from 2018 blared. Those days are so gone.“When are you going to drop out and give Nikki Haley a shot to win?” Newsom zinged. Great question, one that DeSantis failed to answer in front of the Trump fan boy Sean Hannity. DeSantis – a Rupert Murdoch personal favorite – fell flat on Murdoch’s own network. Meanwhile, the Fox board member and ex-House speaker Paul Ryan was touting Haley to whomever would listen.Much like Mike Pence, the former vice-president and former presidential wannabe, DeSantis is bogged down in abortion and Dobbs, the gift the right wing prayed for but is now living to regret. For Pence, it was a matter of conviction; for DeSantis it looks like a case of expedience that quickly headed south.In July last year, Florida enacted a 15-week cut-off for abortion. For DeSantis that wasn’t enough. He doubled down on the issue and lost. To burnish his rightwing credentials, he then pressed the Florida legislature to adopt a six-week abortion ban and it backfired. Tremendously.He got what he demanded and is now living with its consequences. A majority of Floridians are pro-choice, by a 56-39 margin. Florida isn’t Mississippi, to DeSantis’s chagrin.“You want to roll back hard-earned national rights on voting rights and civil rights, human rights and women’s rights, not just access to abortion, but also access to contraception,” Newsom fired. The US is still waiting for DeSantis’s retort.Here, Trump smells blood. He has privately derided anti-abortion leaders as lacking “leverage” to force his hand while tweaking them for having nowhere else to go once the supreme court struck down Roe v Wade. He has also reportedly mocked as “disloyal” and “out of touch” those evangelicals who cast their lot with DeSantis.Simply put, Vander Plaats won’t be receiving a Christmas card from the Trumps later this month. In that same vein, the evangelical rank and file has parted ways with its leadership. These days, Nascar and Florida’s Daytona are their spiritual homes; church pews on Sunday, not so much.In a sense, DeSantis is stuck in the past, rerunning yesteryear’s campaigns. Right now, Trump demonstrates traction with younger voters and is making inroads with minority communities. By contrast, DeSantis is picking losing fights.Gasping for attention, he unfurled a “poop map” of San Francisco to highlight the magnitude of the city’s homeless problem. The stunt backfired. Right now, it’s DeSantis’s campaign that seems to be the raging dung heap. The words “Florida man” usually precede a punchline or something gruesome.
      Lloyd Green is an attorney in New York and served in the US Department of Justice from 1990 to 1992 More

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      Mad Poll Disease is making Democrats misread voter opinion | Michael Podhorzer

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      Now that Thanksgiving has passed in America, and everyone’s Trumpy uncle is on his way back to his conservative state, we still have our catastrophizing Democratic cousins to contend with. Triggered by the drumbeat of horrific poll results, they are panicking that Joe Biden is too old and unpopular to prevent a second Trump administration from taking power.These cousins, and perhaps you too, are suffering from the latest strain of what I call Mad Poll Disease. It’s a perpetual state of anxiety – spread by the media’s obsession with using polls to forecast the outcome of the next election, instead of empowering voters with all the information they need to decide what they want that outcome to be and act, or vote, accordingly.To cure Mad Poll Disease, start by making this your mantra: Horserace polling can’t tell us anything we don’t already know before election day about who will win the electoral college. We know it will be close. We know it will be decided by six swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Importantly, these states were so close that even the best polls couldn’t call all of them the day before the 2016, 2020 or 2022 elections.In both 2016 and 2020, the margin of victory in most of them was less than one point. If you had clicked on FiveThirtyEight in June 2022, you would have thought Republicans had a 60% chance of controlling the Senate, in September that Democrats had a 70% chance of holding the Senate, and on election day, that Republican had a 60% chance of flipping it again. But in the real world, Democrats increased their Senate majority.Trying to use horserace polls to project the winner in swing states is like trying to predict the weather nine months from now by taking the temperature outside today. Elections come down to turnout, and what that will look like on election day is truly anyone’s guess. Taking the temperature of how voters feel today doesn’t tell us how they’ll feel a year from now – much less whether they will act on those feelings by turning out to vote, or for whom they’ll vote if they do.So why the scary numbers?Pollsters want voters to tell them who they will vote for next November; voters want to tell pollsters how unsatisfied they are now with the direction of the country and their own lives. For most of this century, Americans have said the country was on the wrong track – and they have taken out those broader frustrations on whoever was president at the time. Low presidential approval ratings are now the norm in the United States (for old and young presidents alike), in a stark contrast to the last century.And other world leaders aren’t faring well either. Of the seven countries regularly surveyed by Morning Consult, only the Swiss have positive feelings about their leader and their country’s direction.But when it comes time to cast a ballot, voters understand the stakes. This is where we can really tell those cousins to take heart: ever since Trump’s shocking win in 2016, many Americans who thought elections didn’t matter realized that they very much do. Most Americans reject everything Trump and Maga stand for – taking away our freedoms, filling the government with incompetent lackeys, and ruling with hate and fear. An anti-Maga majority was born, and it has turned out to vote in record numbers again and again. This has been a predictable weather pattern since 2018, but most pollsters and pundits fail to account for it.Remember how 2022 was supposed to be a Red Wave, but it never materialized? Actually, it did – in 35 states. But in the other 15 states, where a prominent Maga candidate was running, we saw numbers more like the 2018 Blue Wave. Where voters understood the anti-Maga stakes, they turned out. This allowed Democrats to keep the Senate. When Democrats lost the House, it was by a much narrower margin than pundits expected. And it could have gone the other way had anti-Maga voters in California, New Jersey and New York understood what similar voters in the states with key Senate races understood – that staying home was voting for Maga to control the chamber.As a practical matter, only Biden can decide not to run, and he shouldn’t base that decision on fear of bad polls. Polls can mislead us into making unforced errors. We hear a lot about how risky it is to run an 81-year-old candidate with bad poll numbers. What about how risky it would be to replace someone who has beaten Trump before, and who has already been defined by both left and right, with someone who hasn’t? It would be an absurd gamble – like doubling down on your bet when you haven’t seen any of your own cards yet.It’s even more absurd to focus on this when we still have a year of news headlines in front of us. As we saw after Roe v Wade was overturned, there is a huge difference between knowing intellectually that something could happen, and actually living in the world where it is happening. It’s not news to most people that Trump will stand trial for multiple criminal indictments next year. But none of us can fully feel the way we will about it once we are reminded every day of Trump’s crimes against the country.To be clear, I’m not saying that Biden is going to win – just that there’s no reason to declare him likely to lose. But media outlets create this narrative out of thin air when they choose to field and devote so many headlines to horserace polls a year out from the election. This saps our agency as voters by creating a false sense of inevitability about the final outcome. And it steals oxygen from coverage of why an election matters – the real stakes to voters’ lives.We know what those stakes are because we have lived through some of them. We know how much worse Trump and Maga are promising to do. Our duty, not as Democratic partisans but as small-d democratic partisans, is to put in the work to make sure every voter understands the choice ahead.
      Michael Podhorzer, the former longtime political director of the AFL-CIO, is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, the chair of the Analyst Institute, the Research Collaborative and the Defend Democracy Project, and writes the Substack Weekend Reading More

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      Undercard for Biden-Trump? Debate puts two Americas on same stage

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      American media billed it as a “slugfest” and the “Vendetta in Alpharetta”. Ron DeSantis’s campaign hyped it with a “tale of the tape”. In the era of politics as entertainment, everyone had an interest in turning a debate between two state governors with presidential aspirations into something resembling fight night in Las Vegas.After all, it seems the Elon Musk v Mark Zuckerberg cage match is not going to happen, so the showdown between Florida governor DeSantis and his California counterpart Gavin Newsom on prime time television on Thursday would just have to do.For Fox News, there was the promise for ratings for a White House race that might have been or might still be. DeSantis is desperate to be president but losing badly to Donald Trump in Republican primary opinion polls. Newsom equally aches with ambition but dare not say so while fellow Democrat Joe Biden has the big chair. Consider this Newsom’s audition for 2024 should the current president bow to old age or bad polling or both.There were plenty of low blows, blood on the canvas and less than impartial refereeing from Hannity. DeSantis, in the red corner, failed to land the big punch that could turn his fortunes around. Newsom, in the blue corner, floated like a butterfly and stung like a bee, ensuring that he will live to fight another day – quite possibly in 2028.So this remained effectively the undercard for the expected rematch between Biden and Trump next year. Newsom turned both presidents into a one-two punch, promoting Biden’s economic record while relishing Trump’s dominance of the Republican primary.He goaded DeSantis: “You’re trolling folks and trying to find migrants to play political games, to try to get some news and attention, so you can out-Trump Trump. And by the way, how’s that going for you, Ron? You’re down 41 points in your own home state.” DeSantis stared into the middle distance, his face contorted in a rictus like an overripe pumpkin.The governors represent two of the three biggest states in the US. DeSantis, 45, is a culture warrior who wages war on Covid science, gun control and pronouns. Newsom, 56, is a progressive peacock seen by his foes as part of the hypocritical liberal elite. The debate put two Americas on the same stage: hunter v hipster, heartland v Hollywood, Duck Dynasty v Modern Family, Cracker Barrel v Whole Foods, beer v wine.The gulf often appeared unbridgeable, a snapshot of a nation at odds with itself. Differences on policy soon descended into the governors talking over one another. DeSantis snapped: “You’re a liberal bully!” Newsom answered: “You’re nothing but a bully.” DeSantis retorted: “You’re a bully!” Repetitive it was, Socratic it was not. Over the past eight years Trump has coarsened the discourse so that no disagreement is complete without a personal insult or viral-friendly barb.After months of trash talking each other’s records from afar, DeSantis and Newsom finally came face to face in a studio in Alpharetta in swing state Georgia. The lack of audience and other participants made this feel less chaotic and raucous than the debates that have taken place so far as part of the Republican primary contest. The men stood at lecterns about eight feet apart with red and blue images from their states behind them, as well as their state flags. It was “not a cheap set that we’ve built for you all”, Hannity said.From the opening bell, both men were on brand. DeSantis, wearing the standard issue Trump uniform of dark suit, white shirt and red tie, was bleak and saturnine, like a graveyard at night, going on the offensive against Newsom in his opening statement: “He led the country in school closures locking kids out of school while he had his own kids in private school in person. Now he’s very good at spinning these tales. He’s good at being slick and slippery. He’ll tell a blizzard of lies to be able to try to mask the failures.”Newsom, by contrast, began with sunshine and charm like a sommelier at an overpriced restaurant. He smiled and complimented Hannity for wearing a tie. But then he responded in kind: “You want to bring us back to the pre-1960s or older, America in reverse … You want to weaponise grievance; you are focused on false separateness. You in particular run on a banning binge, a cultural purge, intimidating and humiliating people you disagree with. You and President Trump are really trying to light democracy on fire.”Over 90 minutes, the pair clashed on jobs, taxes, coronavirus pandemic lockdowns, immigration, crime, homelessness, abortion and more. Hannity often had to intervene to stop them talking over one another. Statistics flew back and forth on everything from murder rates to Covid deaths. So did allegations of lying, leaving Democrats to cheer Newsom, Republicans to cheer DeSantis and viewers none the wiser.DeSantis claimed that Newsom’s own father-in-law had moved to Florida because it was better governed and wielded a map of what he said showed the quantity of human faeces found on the streets of San Francisco. He called Newsom “a slick, slippery politician whose state is failing”.The California governor responded to the tirades with a raised eyebrow and wry smile. He accused DeSantis of “smirking” and was withering about his incorrect pronunciation of Kamala Harris’s first name, saying he should show more respect for the vice-president. He scored points by hammering home the threat a President DeSantis would pose to abortion rights.For a while, Hannity, who is friendly with both men, played the part of affable and even-handed host. But he showed his true colours when he stated as fact that Biden, 81, is experiencing “significant cognitive decline”. DeSantis claimed that Newsom agrees and that is why he is running a “shadow campaign” for president. Newsom had a response ready: “I will take Joe Biden at 100 versus Ron DeSantis any day of the week at any age.”Such lines ensured that the charismatic Newsom will avoid the charge of disloyalty and continue his ascent. DeSantis is still in his 40s but resembled an ageing, over-the-hill fighter throwing punches at a phantom opponent. He did nothing to stall rival Nikki Haley’s momentum or close the gap on Trump. Newsom observed that what the men have in common “is neither of us will be the nominee for our party in 2024”.The debate was also a chilling reminder that America is heading into another election torn between different realities. Ari Fleischer, a former White House press secretary, said on Fox News afterwards: “Democrats are from Mars and Republicans are from Venus.”DeSantis’s campaign sent out a statement with the wildly improbable headline: “DeSantis crushes Newsom and Biden, unites Republicans in debate win.” The governor dashed to a hotel press conference where he sought to justify taking part: “To have 90 minutes on national TV where I’m able to go and box somebody who is on the far left – that is good exposure for me.”The pugilistic metaphor was at least consistent. But it may be time to throw in the towel. Stuart Stevens, a veteran political consultant, tweeted: “In the history of American politics, @RonDeSantis will go down as the chump who not only lost every debate in his race, but lost to a guy who isn’t even in the race. That’s talent.” More