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      Republicans seem even further from resolution as US shutdown deadline nears

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      Republican leaders seemed to move further away from a resolution to the impending government shutdown on Tuesday.In a sign of how bad the party’s split has become, a procedural vote on the short-term funding bill expected to happen today was cancelled, and an attempt to advance a Pentagon spending bill was voted down, thanks to rightwing Republicans. The vote intensifies the risk of a shutdown on 1 October and Kevin McCarthy losing his speakership.As another week of negotiations wears on, Republicans in the House of Representatives are in a state of “civil war”, according to the Democratic minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries. Media reports suggested that a newly aggressive McCarthy was ready to force a showdown with the hardliners in his party less than two weeks before the deadline to keep federal agencies afloat.But the day’s chaos revealed that he still faced a steep uphill climb, with far-right Republicans Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene signaling earlier in the day that even a resolution to temporarily delay a shutdown was out of reach.Part of the holdup includes proposed amendments from far-right Republicans on the continuing resolution that would prevent funds from being used for Ukraine aid and other initiatives. Greene’s list of amendments also included a ban on funding for Covid-19 vaccine mandates.A shutdown would mean thousands of government employees would be required to stop working until an agreement is reached, and many government benefits delayed. But even with Mitch McConnell’s warning to his own party, some hardliners continue to delay progress.Late on Sunday a group of hardline and moderate Republicans had reached agreement on a short-term stopgap spending bill, known as a “continuing resolution”, or CR, that could help McCarthy move forward on defence legislation.The measure would keep the government running until the end of October, giving Congress more time to enact full-scale appropriations for 2024. The Politico website reported that the Heritage Foundation, an influential conservative thinktank, had thrown its weight behind the proposed CR.But it remains unclear whether it can garner enough Republican support to pass the House. At least a dozen members came out against it or expressed scepticism. Matt Gaetz, a Florida congressman who has called for McCarthy’s removal, tweeted that the CR is “a betrayal of Republicans” while Majorie Taylor Greene of Georgia posted: “I’m a NO!”The standoff poses the biggest threat to McCarthy in his eight months as the top House Republican as he struggles to unite a fractured caucus. On Tuesday Politico reported that he intends to come out fighting by putting the CR to a floor vote and daring his detractors to put themselves on the record by voting against it.“That would set McCarthy & Co. up to blame those holdouts for undercutting the party’s negotiating hand with Democrats, ultimately leading to the Senate jamming the House with a shutdown-averting stopgap without any Republican concessions,” Politico wrote.Last week McCarthy dared his opponents to hold a vote to remove him, reportedly telling them behind closed doors: “File the fucking motion!”He also vowed to move forward this week on an $886bn fiscal 2024 defense appropriations bill, which stalled last week as hardliners withheld support to demand a topline fiscal 2024 spending level of $1.47tn – about $120bn less than what McCarthy and Biden agreed to in May.McCarthy told Fox News’s Sunday Morning Futures programme: “We’ll bring it to the floor, win or lose, and show the American public who’s for the Department of Defense, who’s for our military.” But in a fresh setback on Tuesday, McCarthy was forced to postpone a procedural vote on the measure to provide more time for negotiations.The White House has already threatened to veto the defence bill. The resolution agreed upon on Sunday is also unlikely to succeed with Democrats and become law. It would impose a spending cut of more than 8% on agencies other than the defense department and Department of Veterans Affairs and includes immigration and border security restrictions but not funding for Ukraine.Leah Greenberg, co-founder of the progressive group Indivisible and a former congressional aide, said: “You have a Republican party that is focused on advancing extremist policy instead of on doing the basic work of governing. Every Republican in the House is basically enabling this process by virtue of being unwilling to break with the extremists.“What you’re seeing with McCarthy is his own intentions are irrelevant. He is simply caving to the most extreme folks within the caucus and they are driving the agenda.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe Republican-controlled House and Democratic-led Senate have until 30 September to pass spending legislation that Joe Biden can sign into law to keep federal agencies afloat. With a 221-212 majority, McCarthy can afford to lose no more than four votes to pass legislation that Democrats unite in opposing.Some members of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, largely aligned with Donald Trump, are openly embracing a shutdown as a negotiating tactic to get their way on spending and conservative policy priorities.Congressman Chip Roy, a Freedom Caucus member, last week described a shutdown as “almost” inevitable and warned: “We have to hold the line.”Ultimately Republicans could be forced to move directly into negotiations with Senate Democrats on appropriations bills that could pass both chambers quickly and be signed into law by Biden.But this could fuel calls for McCarthy to be ousted from hardline conservatives and others who have accused him of failing to keep promises he made to become speaker in January.Congressman Ralph Norman, a Freedom Caucus member, told the Reuters news agency: “It’d be the end of his speakership.”Adding to the chaos, McCarthy apparently sought to curry favour with the far right last week by announcing the opening of an impeachment inquiry into Biden despite no tangible evidence that the president has committed an impeachable offence.On Tuesday he told reporters: “I never quit.” But his young speakership has never looked so vulnerable.Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, said: “It’s obviously uncertain. My hunch is what we’re going to see is McCarthy’s going to want to pass something and he will probably be forced to make concessions that are unacceptable to Democrats and maybe some Republicans. So this is the beginning of a process, not the culmination of it.”McCarthy only gained the speaker’s gavel in January after a tortuous 15 rounds of voting and hard bargaining with the far right. Bill Galston, a former policy adviser to Bill Clinton, said: “Kevin McCarthy, in order to become speaker of the House, handed out a slew of promissory notes. Those notes are all coming due at the same time and I don’t think he has enough political money in the bank to make good on the notes.“He’s the Mr Micawber of Republican politics, just hoping that something will turn up.” More

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      House Republicans cancel vote on short-term funding measure amid infighting – as it happened

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      From 6h agoThe House will not vote today on a measure to keep the government open past 30 September, amid a split between the chamber’s Republican leadership and a handful of far-right lawmakers that will cause a government shutdown if it is not resolved in 12 days, Punchbowl News reports:Lawmakers had been scheduled to today vote to approve the rules of debate for the short-term funding measure, but it was unclear if it would have passed.With the US government 12 days away from shutting down, House Republicans were plagued by infighting between Kevin McCarthy and a handful of far-right lawmakers who refuse to approve a measure to keep the government open through October. In a sign of how bad the split has become, a procedural vote on the short-term funding bill expected to happen today was cancelled, and an attempt to advance a Pentagon spending bill was voted down, thanks to rightwing Republicans. But even if the House does get its ducks in a row, Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer said the short-term measure they would have voted on will not pass the chamber. It’s clear there’s lot of negotiating remaining if a government shutdown is to be avoided.Here’s what else happened today:
      House Republicans will hold the first hearing of their impeachment inquiry against Joe Biden next week.
      Mitch McConnell, the top Senate Republican, warned that the GOP may be blamed if the government shuts down.
      A Trump supporter at the center of conspiracy theories over January 6 has now been charged for his actions during the insurrection.
      Biden addressed the United Nations general assembly in New York City, and we have a live blog covering the day’s events.
      Jimmy Carter’s one-term presidency may have been on Biden’s mind as he pursued a deal with Iran that led to the release of seven Americans yesterday.
      As Politico reports, House Republicans aligned with Kevin McCarthy, which is most of them, had hoped that teeing up a vote on the defense spending measure would break the logjam with rightwing legislators who are holding up business in the chamber.But it didn’t work. The five GOP “no” votes, together with the Democrats’ refusal to vote for legislation they oppose, doomed the effort to begin debate on the bill:Punchbowl News reports that Republican lawmaker Mike Garcia accused the five Republicans who voted the rule down of, essentially, aiding the enemy:In a sign of how bad things have become in the House, Republican leaders just held a crucial vote to advance a Pentagon spending bill, but failed to win enough support for its passage after Democrats and a handful of GOP lawmakers opposed it.Representatives were voting on a rule to begin debate on the bill, but that failed to pass after Democrats – who appear perfectly happy watching the GOP’s slim majority slide into dysfunction – voted against it, as did a handful of Republicans.As it became clear that GOP leadership would not be getting its way today, sarcastic Democrats took to shouting “order!” in the chamber, as you can see from the clip below:There’s a new twist in the story of Ray Epps, a Donald Trump supporter who was present on January 6 and later found himself the subject of rightwing conspiracy theories that baselessly alleged he was an agent provocateur. As the Guardian’s Martin Pengelly reports, he himself is now in trouble with federal prosecutors:Ray Epps – a Donald Trump supporter, Oath Keepers militia member and January 6 participant who became the subject of rightwing conspiracy theories about the attack on Congress – has been charged with one criminal count related to the riot.In a court filing in US district court in Washington DC, dated Monday, federal prosecutors charged Epps with disorderly or disruptive conduct in a restricted building or grounds.The charge can carry a sentence of up to 10 years.A former US marine from Arizona, Epps went to Washington in January 2021 to join protesters seeking to block Joe Biden’s victory over Trump in the presidential election the previous November.On the night of 5 January, he was filmed in downtown Washington, telling other Trump supporters: “Tomorrow, we need to go into the Capitol … peacefully.”The next day, as Trump told supporters to “fight like hell” in his cause, the Capitol came under attack. The attack failed and Trump’s defeat was confirmed. Nine deaths have now been linked to the riot.The notion that Epps was a federal agent, acting as a provocateur, took root early. On the night of 5 January, some around him chanted: “Fed! Fed! Fed! Fed!” In footage of the attack, after a Capitol police officer went down, Epps was seen pulling a rioter aside.Rightwing media, prominently including the then Fox News prime-time host Tucker Carlson, eagerly took up the theory that Epps was linked to federal agents.The US Capitol Police has canceled the security alert it issued following the discovery of a suspicious vehicle and package near its headquarters:The Senate’s top Republican Mitch McConnell warned against shutting down the government and said voters would likely blame the GOP if the federal government runs out of money at the start of October, according to reporters at the Capitol:With the Republican-controlled House oversight committee set to hold its first impeachment hearing of Joe Biden next week, the White House has hit back with a statement condemning the panel as a “political stunt” and calling on Republicans to instead focus on avoiding a government shutdown.“Extreme House Republicans are already telegraphing their plans to try to distract from their own chaotic inability to govern and the impacts of it on the country,” the White House’s spokesperson for oversight and investigations Ian Sams said. “Staging a political stunt hearing in the waning days before they may shut down the government reveals their true priorities: to them, baseless personal attacks on President Biden are more important than preventing a government shutdown and the pain it would inflict on American families.”Sams continued:
      The President has been very clear: he is going to remain focused on the issues that matter to the American people, including preventing the devastating and harmful cuts proposed by House Republicans that are hurtling us toward a government shutdown. House Republicans should drop these silly political Washington games and actually do their job to prevent a government shutdown.
      In a press conference, chair of the House Democratic caucus Pete Aguilar signaled that the party’s lawmakers were in a wait-and-see mode as the GOP squabbles among themselves ahead of an end-of-the-month government shutdown deadline:Far-right Republicans have been pushing for amendments on the continuing resolution that would prevent funds from being used for Ukraine aid and other initiatives.Here are some of the amendments being requested from Marjorie Taylor Greene, from Punchbowl News’ Mica Soellner:There doesn’t seem to be much progress on the House GOP resolution, with Republicans still working to clear a path to get the resolution passed.Florida representative Matt Gaetz told reporters this afternoon that “no” progress was being made on getting the resolution passed.From Politico’s Jordain Carney:Georgia representative Marjorie Taylor Greene also said House GOP were “nowhere near” getting the legislation passed.From Punchbowl News’ Mica Soellner:The United States Capitol Police Headquarters was evacuated today over a suspicious package and vehicle found nearby the premises.Many busy roads near the vehicle have also been temporary closed while police investigate.A date has been set for the first hearing of the inquiry into impeaching Joe Biden, with a government shut down looming.The first hearing will be on 28 September, the Associated Press reported.It will focus on “constitutional and legal questions” around Biden’s involvement in Hunter Biden’s international businesses, a House Oversight Committee spokesperson told AP.House GOP members have insisted that Biden’s conduct as vice president point to a culture of corruption.”With the US government 12 days away from shutting down, House Republicans are plagued by infighting between Kevin McCarthy and a handful of far-right lawmakers who refuse to approve a measure to keep the government open through October. In a sign of how bad the split has become, a procedural vote on the short-term funding bill expected to happen today has been cancelled. But even if the House does get its ducks in a row, Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer said the measure they would have voted on will not pass the Senate. It’s clear there’s lot of negotiating remaining if a government shutdown is to be avoided.Here’s what else has happened today:
      House Republicans will hold the first hearing of their impeachment inquiry against Joe Biden next week.
      Biden addressed the United Nations general assembly in New York City, and we have a live blog covering the day’s events.
      Jimmy Carter’s one-term presidency may have been on Biden’s mind as he pursued a deal with Iran that led to the release of seven Americans yesterday. More

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      Freed Americans on flight bound for US as families hold ‘emotional call’ with president Biden – as it happened

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      From 1h agoFive detained Americans and two of their family members have been allowed to leave Iran and are on their way back to the United States after the Biden administration reached a deal in which Washington freed five jailed Iranians and allowed Tehran to access $6b in oil revenue, but only for humanitarian purposes. The agreement comes as the United Nations general assembly kicks off in New York, but it’s too soon to say if the deal between the two archenemy nations will lead to further negotiations down the road.Here’s what else happened today:
      Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi described the release of the Americans as “purely a humanitarian action”.
      Joe Biden held what the White House described as “an emotional call” with the freed Americans as they traveled back to the United States.
      Michael McCaul, the Republican leader of the House foreign affairs committee, worried the deal would incentivize “future hostage-taking” and “free up funds for Iran’s malign activities.”
      Siamak Namazi, an Iranian-American businessman, credited “all of you who didn’t allow the world to forget me” for his release.
      Hunter Biden sued the IRS, arguing that the tax authority broke the law by failing to protect his privacy when two agents went public with claims of political meddling in their investigation.
      You can read our latest full report here:Our diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour has written about how this deal may signal new direction in western diplomacy:In a statement, Michael McCaul, the Republican chairman of the House foreign affairs committee, welcomed the release of the five Americans from Iranian custody, but criticized the Biden administration for allowing Tehran to access $6b in oil revenue:
      I am immensely relieved that five Americans held hostage by Iran are finally reunited with their families and on their way home. I wish them peace, strength, and health as they rebuild their lives in freedom.
      I am very concerned that this $6 billion hostage deal incentivizes future hostage-taking. Even though the Administration claims these funds are limited to humanitarian transactions, we all know that transactions are difficult to monitor and that money is fungible. There is no question this deal will free up funds for Iran’s malign activities.
      Republicans have generally called for harsh measures against Tehran, and during his presidency, Donald Trump went as far as to authorize a drone strike that killed top Iranian general Qassem Suleimani in 2020. Democrats, meanwhile, have tried to find common ground where they can with Iran, such as the 2015 deal Barack Obama reached to curb its nuclear weapons program – which Trump announced the US would withdraw from in 2018.In domestic political news, NBC News reports that the far-right Republican troublemaker Matt Gaetz is highly likely – in the estimation of one source, “100% in” – to run for governor in Florida in 2026.By then, the current hard-right Republican governor, the presidential candidate Ron DeSantis, will either be in the White House or at the end of his two-term time in state office.On Monday, NBC quoted one “longtime Florida Republican lobbyist” as saying that at a reception in Tallahassee on Sunday, “there was a lot of talk about it … and Gaetz was telling people to basically expect him to be in”.Another “Florida Republican operative” was quoted as saying: “He’s 100% in. I think Gaetz is an instant frontrunner and from what I hear he’s already won the Trump primary”, meaning Donald Trump’s endorsement.Gaetz, 41, told NBC: “Many did encourage me to consider running for governor one day.”He also aimed a dig at DeSantis, saying: “But we have an outstanding governor who will be in that position through 2026.”Gaetz’s “only political focus right now”, he added – other than opposing almost everything Kevin McCarthy does as US House speaker, including proposing ways to fund the federal government – “is Trump 2024”.Some further reading:The Iranian nationals who were released in a prisoner swap with the United States have landed in Tehran, state-run PressTV reports:Reuters reports that the two individuals arriving in Iran after transiting Qatar are Mehrdad Moin-Ansari and Reza Sarhangpour-Kafrani. Another two Iranians released by the United States will stay in the country, while a fifth will go to an undisclosed country to join his family.The White House announced that Joe Biden this morning “held an emotional call with the families of the seven American citizens who are returning home to the United States from Iran.”“Each family member who joined the call spoke with the president,” it added in a statement, which also confirmed the group had departed Doha, Qatar for the United States.The five Americans released by Iran today in a prisoner swap have departed Doha, Qatar for the United States, Reuters reports, citing a source familiar with the matter.Qatar helped broker the deal between the two archenemy nations, and the group of former detainees along with two American family members that had been prevented from leaving Iran were flown earlier today from Tehran to the Gulf nation.World leaders meeting at the United Nations in New York on Monday warned of the peril the world faces unless it acts with urgency to rescue a set of 2030 development goals to wipe out hunger and extreme poverty and to battle climate change, Reuters reports.The news agency further writes:
      Their declaration, adopted by consensus at a summit before the annual U.N. General Assembly, embraces a 2015 “to-do” list of 17 Sustainable Development Goals that also include water, energy, reducing inequality and achieving gender equality.“The achievement of the SDGs is in peril,” the declaration reads. “We are alarmed that the progress on most of the SDGs is either moving much too slowly or has regressed below the 2015 baseline.”U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the summit of leaders that only 15% of the targets are on track and that many are going in reverse.Earlier this month, Guterres called on G20 leaders to ensure a stimulus of at least $500 billion per year towards meeting the goals. He called on countries to act now.The leaders are meeting in the shadow of geopolitical tensions – largely fueled by the war in Ukraine – as Russia and China vie with the United States and Europe to win over developing countries, where achieving the Sustainable Development Goals are key.“Instead of leaving no one behind, we risk leaving the SDGs behind … the SDGs need a global rescue plan,” Guterres told the summit.The U.N. said this month that there are 745 million more moderately to severely hungry people in the world today than in 2015, and the world is far off track in its efforts to meet the ambitious United Nations goal to end hunger by 2030.
      The United Nations General Assembly is getting underway in New York with world leaders flying in and the biggest leaders getting ready to deliver their headline speeches tomorrow.Joe Biden has already traveled north and has a couple of Democratic fundraising events this evening in the Big Apple.Tomorrow, the US president will speak at the UN headquarters, following the major opening address by the UN secretary general António Guterres. Guterres will be followed by Brazil’s Lula and then Biden. We expect Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who appeared by video link last year but is attending in person this year, to make his speech around noon local time at a crucial time in the counteroffensive against Russia’s invasion 1.5 years ago.The Ukraine war will be the dominant topic, especially in the absence of Russia and China’s leaders.But Reuters adds:
      With the world on track to break the record for the hottest year in history, world leaders, business leaders, celebrities and activists have converged on midtown Manhattan for Climate Week and the U.N.’s Climate Action Summit, again focusing the world’s attention on the climate crisis. The annual climate gathering coincides with the start of the United Nations General Assembly, bringing heads of state and top government officials together with private-sector leaders to focus on climate change in a year marked by a record number of billion-dollar disasters, including eight severe floods.The main event will take place Wednesday when Guterres will host his own Climate Action Summit, a high-profile event meant to reverse backsliding on Paris climate agreement goals and to encourage governments to adopt serious new actions to combat climate change.“There is lingering doubt that … we can meet our climate goals. There is too much backtracking; so we’re really hoping that this summit can be used as a moment to inspire people,” Selwin Hart, special adviser on climate to the secretary-general, said in an interview.
      The five Americans freed from imprisonment in Iran are now on a flight bound for the US, Reuters reports.Citing an unnamed source, the news agency just reported that an aircraft has departed Doha, the capital of Qatar, where the Americans had been taken as an interim stage, en route for the States.Five detained Americans and two of their family members have been allowed to leave Iran, in a deal with the Biden administration that saw Washington release five jailed Iranians and $6b in oil proceeds, which Tehran can only spend on humanitarian supplies. The agreement comes as the United Nations general assembly kicks off in New York, but it’s too soon to say if the agreement between the two archenemy nations will lead to further negotiations down the road.Here’s what else has happened today so far:
      Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi described the release of the Americans as “purely a humanitarian action”.
      Siamak Namazi, an Iranian-American businessman, credited “all of you who didn’t allow the world to forget me” for his release.
      Hunter Biden sued the IRS, arguing that the tax authority broke the law by failing to protect his privacy when two agents went public with claims of political meddling in their investigation.
      Businessman Siamak Namazi said in a statement released on his behalf, “I would not be free today, if it wasn’t for all of you who didn’t allow the world to forget me,” the Associated Press reports.Namazi was among the five Americans released by Iran today in exchange for the freeing of five Iranians detained in the United States and access to $6b in money from oil sales Tehran can spend only on humanitarian supplies.Namazi continued:
      Thank you for being my voice when I could not speak for myself and for making sure I was heard when I mustered the strength to scream from behind the impenetrable walls of Evin Prison.”
      A dual US-Iranian national, Namazi was detained in 2015 while visiting family in Tehran. Months later, his father, Baquer, was detained when he came to visit him in jail, before being released in 2022.Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the United Nations general assembly in New York, Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi cast Tehran’s release of five Americans as “a humanitarian action”, and hinted that similar deals could be possible, Reuters reports.“This was purely a humanitarian action … And it can certainly be a step based upon which in the future other humanitarian actions can be taken,” the Iranian leader, who was elected in 2021, told reporters.In his remarks to reporters, secretary of state Antony Blinken said seven, not five, Americans had been released by Iran.Blinken included in that number two Americans who had been prevented from leaving the country.“Just a few minutes ago, I had the great pleasure of speaking to seven Americans who are now free, free from their imprisonment or detention in Iran, out of Iran, out of prison, and now in Doha enroute back to the United States, to be reunited with their loved ones,” Blinken said.“Five of the seven, of course, had been unjustly detained, imprisoned in Iran, some for years. Two others had been prevented from leaving Iran.”In a briefing to reporters, secretary of state Antony Blinken said the $6bn in money from oil sales released to Iran can only be used to buy humanitarian supplies: More

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      Here’s the scary way Trump could win without the electoral or popular vote | Stephen Marche

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      In an ordinary time, under ordinary political conditions, the specter of another Trump presidency would be strictly the stuff of nightmares. The former president is facing 40 criminal charges for his mishandling of classified documents, and will have to interrupt his campaign next summer to defend himself in court. Those charges are apart from the 34 felony counts of falsifying business records he faces in New York. And then there’s the rape defamation lawsuit, which will begin in January, and which he will almost certainly lose.The American people, however, can be awfully forgiving. In current polling, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are tied nationally; no Republican nominee has emerged to challenge Trump. But, as we have been learning pretty much continuously since 2000, the will of the majority of the American people no longer matters all that much in who is running their country.The abstruse and elaborate mechanisms of the US constitution relating to elections, which used to be matters for historical curiosity, have become more and more relevant every year. In 2024, there is very much a way for Donald Trump to lose the popular vote, lose the electoral college, lose all his legal cases and still end up president of the United States in an entirely legal manner. It’s called a contingent election.A contingent election is the process put in place to deal with the eventuality in which no presidential candidate reaches the threshold of 270 votes in the electoral college. In the early days of the American republic, when the duopoly of the two-party system was neither desired nor expected, this process was essential.There have been two contingent elections in US history. The first was in 1825. The year before, Andrew Jackson, the man from the $20 bill, had won the plurality of votes and the plurality of electoral college votes as well, but after extensive, elaborate negotiations, John Quincy Adams took the presidency mostly by offering Henry Clay, who had come third in the election, secretary of state. Jackson, though shocked, conceded gracefully. He knew his time would come. His supporters used the taint of Adams’s “corrupt bargain” with Clay to ensure Jackson’s victory in 1828.Jackson was a patriot. He put the country’s interests ahead of his own, to preserve the young republic. The United States is older now, and the notion of leaders who would put the interests of the country ahead of themselves and their party is archaic. The 2022 midterms were unprecedented in terms of how many election deniers were appointed to serious office.“Many 2020 election deniers and skeptics ran for office in the 2022 midterm elections, with 229 candidates winning their elections,” a University of California report found. “A total of 40 states elected a 2020 election denier or skeptic to various positions, from governor to secretary of state to attorney general to congress.”The American people are already disinclined to believe in the legitimacy of any election that doesn’t conform to their own desired outcome any more, left or right. In 2016, at the inauguration of Donald Trump, the crowds chanted “not my president”. As of August, the percentage of Republicans who think that 2020 was stolen is near 70%.So the possibility of the electoral college releasing a confusing result, or being unable to certify a satisfying result by two months after the election, is quite real. The electoral college, even at its best, is an arcane system, unworthy of a 21st-century country. There have been, up to 2020, 165 faithless electors in American history – electors who didn’t vote for the candidate they had pledged to vote for.In 1836, Virginia faithless electors forced a contingent election for vice-president. If the 270 marker has not been reached by 6 January, the contingent election takes place automatically. And the contingent election isn’t decided by the popular votes or the number of electoral college votes. Each state delegation in the House of Representatives is given a single vote for president. Each state delegation in the Senate is given a single vote for vice-president.The basic unfairness of this process is obvious: California with its 52 representatives, and Texas with its 38 representatives, would have the same say in determining the presidency as Wyoming and Vermont, which have one apiece. State delegations in the House would favor Republicans as a matter of course. In the struggle for congressional delegates, Republicans would have 19 safe House delegations and the Democrats would have 14, as it stands, with more states leaning Republican than Democrat.All that would be required, from a technical, legal standpoint, is for enough electoral college votes to be uncounted or uncertified for the contingent election to take place, virtually guaranteeing a Republican victory and hence a Trump presidency. It would be entirely legal and constitutional. It just wouldn’t be recognizably democratic to anyone. Remember that autocracies have elections. It doesn’t matter who votes. It matters who counts.In 2021, I published a book about American political decline, The Next Civil War, which examined the structural crises underlying the collapse of the American political order, but I didn’t include a chapter on the electoral system because it seemed too far-fetched, the stuff of historical figments. Those deep structural crises are now, rapidly, overtaking the electoral system itself. A contingent election would be, in effect, the last election, which is the title of the new book I co-wrote with Andrew Yang about exactly that possibility. The rot is advancing faster than anybody could have imagined. Figments from history are now hints to the future.Polls aren’t worth much at the best of times but this year they are particularly meaningless. Democrats have taken comfort from a recent New York Times/Siena College poll that showed how the Republican advantage in the electoral college, which was 2.9% in 2016, rising to 3.8% in 2020, has diminished to less than a single percentage point, according to the most recent data. None of it matters.The real danger of 2024 isn’t even the possibility of a Trump presidency. It’s that the electoral system, in its arcane decrepitude, will produce an outcome that won’t be credible to anybody. The danger of 2024 is that it will be the last election.
      Stephen Marche is a Canadian essayist and novelist. He is the author of The Next Civil War and How Shakespeare Changed Everything More

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      Congressional Biden ally dismisses Republicans’ impeachment strategy

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      One of Joe Biden’s key congressional allies has rejected the notion that Republicans can bait the president’s fellow Democrats into embracing an impeachment inquiry as an opportunity for him to be cleared over questions about his son’s business affairs.“What the American people want is for us to fund government and solve their issues,” the California congressman Ro Khanna said on Fox News Sunday, referring to how some hard-right Republicans have made a Biden impeachment inquiry a condition for them to support new funding that would avoid at least a partial federal government shutdown after 30 September.Khanna, a leading progressive who sits on the US House’s oversight committee and is a member of Biden’s re-election advisory board, added: “There is no grounds for an impeachment inquiry, and this is why” Republican House speaker Kevin McCarthy lacks the votes necessary to have already called one.The comments from Khanna to the Republican-friendly news program came after host Maria Bartiromo suggested that going along with a Biden impeachment could afford the president a chance to demonstrate – once and for all – that allegations of corruption stemming from his son Hunter’s foreign business deals are unfounded.Bartiromo said Republican congressman Scott Perry – Khanna’s fellow House oversight committee member – had previously advanced a similar line of argument to support impeaching Biden. And Bartiromo also alluded to Fox News polling which showed a percentage of voters believed Biden had done something unethical, if not illegal, as far as Hunter’s business dealings were concerned.But Khanna countered by pointing Bartiromo and her viewers to a Washington Post opinion piece by Colorado’s Republican House member Ken Buck, which asserted that there was no evidence to justify a Biden impeachment.Buck said that was his position even as he strongly condemned the Democrat-led impeachment of Biden’s Republican presidential predecessor, Donald Trump, in 2019. That impeachment concerned attempts by Trump to find dirt on his political rivals, including Biden, pertaining to politics and business in Ukraine.It was separate from Trump’s second impeachment stemming from his supporters’ violent attack on the US Capitol on 6 January 2021 after his electoral defeat to Biden. Both impeachments resulted in Trump’s acquittal.Khanna said it was also telling that other Republicans have publicly shared Buck’s opinion that Biden’s impeachment would at best be a fruitless distraction. That reality contrasts sharply with the generally united front which Democrats presented when voting to impeach Trump, Khanna argued.“I mean, when we impeached President Trump, every Democrat voted for it,” said Khanna, though two House members belonging to his party opposed the 2019 impeachment. The GOP House speaker, Khanna said, “simply doesn’t have the votes on his side”, and a substantial number of Republicans in the chamber have expressed their preference to focus on avoiding a government shutdown.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“Fund the government; solve people’s problems,” those Republicans say, according to Khanna.Bartiromo conceded that there were “definitely Republicans saying they don’t want to go down this road” of impeaching Biden.As ultra-conservative rhetoric about impeaching Biden swirled, the president’s son was indicted on Thursday on federal firearms charges which can carry up to 25 years in prison. The charges were brought against Hunter Biden after the collapse in August of a plea deal that also involved two separate misdemeanor tax charges.Since last year’s midterm elections, Republicans have held only a thin majority in the US House, which has the power to draw up articles of impeachment. Democrats hold a thin majority in the Senate, where two-thirds of the members need to vote to convict – and, as a consequence, remove from office – an impeached official. More

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      Lauren Boebert apologizes again for ‘maybe overtly animated’ behavior at theater

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      Lauren Boebert has issued a second apology for her now infamous theatre date which saw her get ejected from watching a Beetlejuice: The Musical performance after she openly vaped in the audience, groped her companion and was graphically felt up in kind.In an interview on Sunday with the conservative One America News Network, the far-right Colorado congresswoman attributed the behavior – recorded on security camera footage – to what she described as her being “maybe overtly animated”. Boebert, 36, thus implied that her extrovertedness had somehow fused with a stage production that the New York Times reviewed as “a jaw-dropping funhouse”.“I was laughing, I was singing, having a fantastic time, was told to kinda settle it down a little bit, which I did, but then, my next slip up was taking a picture,” she told the network about her date a week earlier. “I was a little too eccentric … I’m on the edge of a lot of things.”Her remarks added to a written apology offered on Friday in which she said she was “truly sorry for the unwanted attention my … evening in Denver [on Sunday, 10 September] has brought to the community” and that her actions she “simply fell short” of her values.Meanwhile, additional information about Boebert’s companion to Beetlejuice – whom she has been dating for months – introduced even more complexity to an already perplexing picture of their night out.Her date, 46-year-old Quinn Gallagher, was a Democrat-supporting owner of a bar that hosts LGBTQ+ and drag events in the ski town of Aspen, Colorado. The events included a women’s party for Aspen Gay Ski Week and a Winter Wonderland Burlesque & Drag Show. Boebert has been an outspoken critic of drag shows, as evidenced by a June 2022 post on the social media platform now known as X which read: “Take your children to Church, not drag bars.”The US House member was ejected alongside Gallagher from the Buell theatre after being asked to stop vaping, taking pictures and groping each other during the performance of the family-friendly Beetlejuice, according to reporting and video obtained by local Denver news outlet 9News.Criticism against Boebert has only intensified since her first apology, with some conservative commentators spending the weekend calling her out.“Totally embarrassing bimbo,” conservative pundit Ann Coulter wrote on X. Jenna Ellis, a former attorney for ex-president Donald Trump, called the behavior “embarrassing and disrespectful”.According to a Buell theatre security report obtained by 9News Denver, Boebert and Gallagher had been “vaping, singing, causing a disturbance”. Boebert reportedly asked “Do you know who I am?” when they were asked to leave.Her first apology since then blamed her “public and difficult divorce” for her behavior. In May, she filed to divorce her husband of nearly two decades, Jayson.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThough Sunday marked Boebert’s second apology for her Beetlejuice antics, the comments marked the third time the congresswoman had addressed the episode.Initially, her campaign manager Drew Sexton told the Associated Press that “congresswoman Lauren Boebert is indeed a supporter of the performing arts (gasp!)”.He added that Boebert “pleads guilty to singing along, laughing and enjoying herself”. More

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      Trump says Republicans ‘speak very inarticulately’ about abortion

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      Donald Trump grappled with a wide range of contentious issues in an interview with NBC that generated criticism against the network, including his thoughts on democratic principles, abortion rights and ageing politicians.He also confirmed his interest in choosing Kristi Noem to be his vice-presidential running mate if he wins the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 as he seeks a second term in the White House.In an interview on Sunday with Kristen Welker during her debut as host of NBC’s Meet the Press, the former president advised members of his party to abandon their hardline stance of abortion bans with no exceptions.He said Republicans “speak very inarticulately” about abortion and criticized those who push for abortion bans without exceptions in the cases of rape, incest and the health of the mother.“Other than certain parts of the country, you can’t – you’re not going to win on this issue,” said Trump, who faces more than 90 pending criminal charges across four separate indictments, including for subversion of the 2020 election which he lost to Joe Biden.“But you will win on this issue when you come up with the right number of weeks.”Trump predicted that both sides would eventually come together on the issue after the US supreme court last year eliminated the federal abortion rights that had been put in place decades earlier by the Roe v Wade ruling. Three justices whom he appointed to the supreme court made the elimination of those rights a reality.“For the first time in … years, you’ll have an issue that we can put behind us,” he said.Trump said he is “all for” a presidency competency test, but the 77-year-old expressed his opposition to age limits.He alluded to taking a mental competency test two or three years ago and boasted that he “aced it”.“I get everything right,” Trump said during the interview conducted at his Bedminster, New Jersey, golf retreat. “I’m all for testing. I frankly think testing would be a good thing.”In 2020, it was revealed that some of the early questions in that test involved Trump identifying an elephant and counting backward from 100.Asked if it is time for a new generation of US leadership, Trump said: “It’s always time for a new generation.” But he qualified his answer: “Some of the greatest world leaders have been in their 80s.”Those remarks from Trump came after retiring Republican US senator Mitt Romney of Utah called for a “new generation of leaders”.Trump notably defended Biden, his Democratic rival, on his age. A poll last month from the Associated Press and the Norc Center for Public Affairs showed 77% of Americans – including 69% of Democrats – think the 80-year-old Biden is too old to serve a second term.“I don’t think Biden’s too old,” Trump said to Welker. “But I think he’s incompetent, and that’s a bigger problem. It’s really a level of competency, not the age.”Two days before Trump attacked Biden’s acuity, Trump told a summit in Washington that a “cognitively impaired” Biden would lead the US into “world war two”, which already occurred between 1939 and 1945.Meanwhile, Trump said he “liked the concept” of having a woman as his running mate if he wins the Republican nomination, adding that he had his eye on Noem, the South Dakota governor. “I think she’s fantastic,” he said. “She’s been a great governor. She gave me a very full-throated endorsement, a beautiful endorsement actually. Certainly she’d be one of the people I’d consider.”Noem recently confirmed that she was a candidate for the position. “Of course, I would consider it,” she told Fox News. But that was before the governor was splashed across the tabloid press for allegedly having an affair with former Trump aide Corey Lewandowski since at least 2019.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe Daily Mail’s reporting has not been denied, though Noem’s spokesperson said it was “so predictable” that the South Dakota governor would be attacked soon after she endorsed Trump for the Republican nomination.Trump was asked if he still believes democracy is the most effective form of government. “I do – but it has to be a democracy that’s fair,” he said. “This democracy – I don’t consider us to have much of a democracy right now.”He went on to complain about the indictments against him, which also contain charges for allegedly mishandling classified documents and attempting to conceal hush money payments to adult film actor Stormy Daniels.Those charges are separate from civil cases that include a $250m lawsuit by the New York attorney general about his business affairs as well as a defamation claim stemming from a rape accusation that a judge has deemed to be “substantially true”.During the interview, Trump said he was not “consumed” with the prospect of prison time.“I don’t even think about it,” Trump said. “I’m built a little differently I guess, because I have had people come up to me and say, ‘How do you do it, sir? How do you do it?’ I don’t even think about it.“I truly feel that, in the end, we’re going to win.”Trump has maintained he would not pardon himself if he is re-elected, but he revealed to Welker that he had discussed pardoning himself in the dying days of his presidency – a sign that he and his legal team understood the legal peril he brought on to himself by challenging the election’s results.He said his failed election challenges eventually prompted him to ignore advice from his attorneys “because I didn’t respect them”.Sunday’s interview earned NBC criticism from many commentators who questioned the wisdom of giving such a soapbox to Trump after his alleged criminal misdeeds from before, during and after his presidency.One question by Welker that some dismissed as a soft ball sought to discuss the contents of a message that Trump left for Biden when he left the White House.Earlier this year, CNN was pilloried for giving Trump a town hall-style platform in New Hampshire that indirectly led to the dismissal of its programming architect, former morning TV producer and CNN chief Chris Licht.NBC has said the network has also invited Biden to sit down for an interview with Welker. 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      For Elon Musk, the personal is political – but his march to the right affects us all

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      The personal is political. The phrase was popularized by 1960s second-wave feminism but it sums up Elon Musk’s ideological journey. Once a “fundraiser and fanboy for Barack Obama”, to quote his biographer, Walter Isaacson, the sometime world’s richest man now plays thin-skinned, anti-woke warrior – a self-professed free-speech purist who in fact is anything but.His rebranding of Twitter to X having proved a disaster, he flirts with antisemites for fun and lost profits. He threatens the Anti-Defamation League with a multibillion-dollar lawsuit. The ADL never suggested the name “X”. That was a long-term fetish, now a clear own-goal.Like the building of Rome, Musk’s march to the right did not take only one day. A series of events lie behind it. Musk is a modern Wizard of Oz. Like the man behind the curtain, he is needy. According to Isaacson, outright rejection – and gender transition – by one of Musk’s children played an outsized role in his change. So did Covid restrictions and a slap from the Biden White House.In March 2020, as Covid descended, Musk became enraged when China and California mandated lockdowns that threatened Tesla, his electric car company, and thus his balance sheet.“My frank opinion remains that the harm from the coronavirus panic far exceeds that of the virus itself,” he wrote in an intra-company email.But Musk jumped the gun. Moloch would take his cut. In the US, Covid has killed 1.14 million. American life expectancy is among the lowest in the industrialized west. Thailand does better than Florida, New York and Iowa. For their part, Ohio, South Carolina and Missouri, all Republican-run, trail Thailand. Bangladesh outperforms Mississippi. Overall, the US is behind Colombia and Croatia. Under Covid, Trump-voting counties became killing fields.But in May 2020, amid a controversy with local government in California, Musk tweeted, “take the red pill”. It was a reference to The Matrix, in which Neo, the character played by Keanu Reeves, elects to take the “red pill” and thereby confront reality, instead of downing the “blue pill” to wake happily in bed. Ivanka Trump, of all people, was quick to second Musk: “Taken!”Musk’s confrontation with California would not be the last time he was stymied or dissed by those in elected office. In summer 2021, the Biden administration stupidly declined to invite him to a White House summit on electric vehicles – because Tesla was not unionized.“We, of course, welcome the efforts of all automakers who recognize the potential of an electric vehicle future and support efforts that will help reach the president’s goal. And certainly, Tesla is one of those companies,” Biden’s press secretary said, adding: “Today, it’s the three largest employers of the United Auto Workers and the UAW president who will stand with President Biden.” Two years later, the UAW has gone on strike. At midnight on Thursday, 13,000 workers left the assembly lines at General Motors, Ford and Chrysler.For all of his talk of freedom, Musk sidles up to China. This week, he claimed the relationship between Taiwan and China was analogous to that between Hawaii and the US. Taiwan is “an integral part of China that is arbitrarily not part of China”, Musk said. Such comments dovetail with Chinese talking points. He made no reference to US interests. He is a free agent. It’s not just about Russia and Ukraine.Musk’s tumultuous personal life has also pressed on the scales. In December 2021, he began to rail against the “woke mind virus”. If the malady were left unchecked, he said, “civilization will never become interplanetary”. Musk apparently loves humanity. People, however, are a different story.According to Isaacson, the outburst was triggered in part by rejection and gender transition. In 2022, one of his children changed her name to Vivian Jenna Wilson, telling a court: “I no longer live with or wish to be related to my biological father in any way, shape or form.” She also embraced radical economics.“I’ve made many overtures,” Musk tells Isaacson. “But she doesn’t want to spend time with me.” His hurt is palpable.James Birchall, Musk’s office manager, says: “He feels he lost a son who changed first and last names and won’t speak to him anymore because of this woke mind virus.”Contradictions litter Musk’s worldview. Take the experiences of Bari Weiss, the professional contrarian and former New York Times writer. In late 2022, she was one of the conduits for the Twitter Files, fed to receptive reporters by Musk in an attempt to show Twitter’s bias against Trump and the US right. On 12 December, Weiss delivered her last reports. Four days later, she criticized Musk’s decision to suspend a group of journalists, for purportedly violating anti-doxxing policies.“He was doing the very things that he claimed to disdain about the previous overlords at Twitter,” Weiss charged. She also pressed Musk over China, to his dismay. He grudgingly acknowledged, she told Isaacson, that because of Tesla’s investments, “Twitter would indeed have to be careful about the words it used regarding China.“China’s repression of the Uyghurs, he said, has two sides.”“Weiss was disturbed,” Isaacson writes.Musk is disdainful of Donald Trump, whom he sees as a conman. This May, on X, Musk hosted a campaign roll-out for another would-be strongman: Ron DeSantis. A glitch-filled disaster, it portended what followed. The Florida governor continues to slide in the polls, Vivek Ramaswamy nipping at his heels.Musk remains a force. On Monday, he is slated to meet Benjamin Netanyahu, the indicted rightwing prime minister of Israel who will be in New York for the United Nations general assembly. Like Musk, Netanyahu is not a favorite of the Biden White House. Misery loves company. More