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      ‘This is too serious to drown out’: six US voters on what they’re most anxious about

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      Hundreds of US voters from across the country shared with the Guardian how they are coping with the stress of the looming election, and which issues and possible outcomes make them the most anxious or concerned.Here are six of them.‘I worry about a further erosion of women’s rights’As a gynecologist in Georgia, I worry about a further erosion of women’s rights. Pregnancy is already dangerous here. Once Roe was overturned, the six-week ban went into effect and we quickly saw we couldn’t provide medically appropriate care to our patients.It also created a lot of fear and confusion amongst healthcare providers who didn’t want to put their license or livelihood on the line. The confusion was the purpose of the law, causing delays in care and “preventing” abortion. Unfortunately all it did was mean that patients had to be very sick before a doctor would intervene. We are seeing women bear the consequences – getting very sick, unable to get pregnant again, losing babies, and in some cases, dying.As a queer family with children, our marriage, rights, privacy and ability to make healthcare decisions [may] be impacted. We can’t watch TV as is, with all the hateful anti-trans ads. It’s hard to sleep. B, an obstetrician gynecologist, from Georgia‘We need a strong leadership to handle international problems, whoever wins the election’I’m worried that other countries don’t realize what motivates Americans to vote for Trump. I don’t think he’s the best president we’ve ever had, he’s kind of like a New York playboy. But I think he had a good successful term, despite being an amateur politician, rather than a career one.The continuous character assassination of him when he first ran was a slick orchestration. Every newspaper was immediately against him, it was like somebody had pressed a button, like a set-up or something. This motivated me to vote for him, to oppose the organised media and political establishment.People in Europe seem to think we’re simple-minded for voting for him, but we’re not. We all just felt – ‘Let’s try him for a while.’ We’re all so tired of liberals from California running the country. They created a machine of sorts, and Trump startled that machine.I hope Trump gets his second term now, and I’m very much impressed by his running mate. But I’m concerned about the ability of both Trump and Harris to handle the many international problems we have now, such as threats from Russia. The dollar is losing security. In the Middle East, anything could happen. It’s important that we have a good leadership who can sort this all out, whoever wins. Rob, a retired computer programmer, from Maine‘American democracy will survive another excruciating Trump term’Calling the re-election of Trump the end of democracy is dramatic. Calling his return to power the end of democracy as we know it, is apt.I believe America’s democracy, flawed and vulnerable as it may be, is resilient enough to withstand another Trump term. I think it’s politically expedient to proclaim that a second Trump term would drive us directly into purely despotic rule.The day-to-day of watching [Trump] run the country that I love would be excruciating, again, but I think what really is nightmare fuel is [the prospect of a] Vance presidency, which feels likely and could [entail] a dismantling of nearly all social goods left in the US.Under either man, US support for beleaguered or aspiring democracies could crater; alliances with Nato and other democratically aligned organizations could be severed or allowed to atrophy. But perhaps most dishearteningly, the election of a Maga Republican would signal that the leader of the free world would now be supplanted by a leader of the strongman world.What makes it worse is the countervailing hope of a Democratic term or two, where the country would finally have room to heal. They actually give me hope, and I would grieve the loss of hope.I’m not drinking at the moment, on purpose. Quit weed, too. I feel this is too serious to drown it out. Nile Curtis, 48, a massage therapist, from Hawaii‘America is now unable to discuss different viewpoints’Our greatest concern about the election, aside from the outcome, is the potential eruption of violence. The inflammatory rhetoric, the noxious stereotypes and the intractable position of Trump’s supporters who might or might not like him, but will vote for him anyway, is proof that the US is currently incapable of conducting any sort of discourse. Regardless of who wins, the threat of impending doom feels very real.We are older parents of a disabled adult. While the economy is a pressing issue for everyone, social security seems to be in danger. As people who are closer in age to retirement, and caring for a disabled adult, we are unsure of the impact either candidate would have on our “bigger picture”, but we feel that Mr Trump’s rhetoric brings an added layer of threatening behavior from people on both sides, who have become increasingly defensive and unwilling to accept and discuss different viewpoints.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionHow do we manage our anxieties around these issues? We keep to ourselves. We do not engage in political or ideological discussions with anyone and limit our time watching and reading the news. The constant barrage of reporting, which has become pseudo-journalistic in pursuit of increasing [audience] numbers, appears to be geared to stoke the anxiety. The 24/7 news cycle has injected a stream of fear into everyone. MG, a mother and grandmother, from North Carolina‘I’m tired of having to vote against a candidate instead of voting for one’I want to vote for a president who supports the causes that I’m most concerned with: climate change, healthcare, cost of living, availability of housing. I will vote for Harris, but more as a vote against Trump.I think the Democratic party has shown that they’re willing to invest in renewable energy, which is fantastic. But I’m concerned with the promotion of record oil and gas numbers by the Democratic campaign this election cycle. That being said, I think the Republican party would be significantly worse.I believe that not enough housing is being constructed, period, and what is being built is only for those who can afford it. There’s a lot of short-term Airbnb-type rentals in Portland that further reduce the housing stock, and I’m concerned about ever being able to afford a house.I think for gen Z the biggest issues aren’t being reflected by either campaign. The rapid spread of disinformation on divisive, extremist social media [is another one].I have close friends and family who are queer and am increasingly concerned with the way anti-LGBT rhetoric has, I feel, exploded back into popularity. I’m frustrated that the Harris campaign has made an effort to expand rightwards and not leftwards. This will be my second presidential election and I’m tired of having to vote against a candidate instead of voting for one. Nate, 24, Ocean engineer, Portland, Maine‘I no longer trust Trump after January 6’My voting record is quite mixed. I voted for Bush twice, then McCain in 2008, Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and I plan to vote for Harris in 2024. I disagree with much of the Harris-Walz platform on police reform, abortion and immigration. But after January 6, I no longer trust Trump or anyone allegiant to him in the White House.It feels like an election between poor policy choices or an overpowered executive branch that will stop at nothing to retain control. I will not vote for anyone who called the 2020 election “stolen”. So many of my neighbors and people who go to my church still believe Trump’s lies about the election.Trump is a divisive character in our family’s discussions and we’ve lost relationships with kin because of our not supporting him. We also expect violence, perhaps even at the polling places, regardless of who wins.[Part of our anxiety management strategy] is preparation: we have a few days’ food, water and household needs on-hand, and we’ll have a full tank of gas if we need to leave town. Some is avoidance. We live in a very Trump-heavy area, lots of Trump yard signs. I realized the other day that I’ve drunk every day for the last three weeks. I’ve made a point of walking every day and doing some kind of exercise. But really nothing can fully prepare us. An anonymous male IT worker in his 40s, from Missouri More

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      Will young voters in swing states decide this election? – podcast

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      Archive: Full Send podcast
      Follow Today in Focus Election Extra here
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      Subscribe to the Guardian’s new newsletter focusing on the biggest Black stories from around the world: The Long Wave
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      US elections live: about 58m people have already voted; Harris leads Trump in two crucial swing states, new poll shows

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      With six days until the 2024 election, more than 57.5 million Americans have already voted as of Wednesday afternoon, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida.Of the 57 million, just over 30 million voted early in-person and about 27 million voted by early mail.In an op-ed for the Guardian, Bernie Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont, addresses progressives concerns about voting for Kamala Harris given the administration’s support for Israel’s war.He writes:
      I understand that there are millions of Americans who disagree with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on the terrible war in Gaza. I am one of them.
      While Israel had a right to defend itself against the horrific Hamas terrorist attack of 7 October 2023, which killed 1,200 innocent people and took 250 hostages, it did not have the right to wage an all-out war against the entire Palestinian people.
      It did not have the right to kill 42,000 Palestinians, two-thirds of whom were children, women and the elderly, or injure over 100,000 people in Gaza. It did not have the right to destroy Gaza’s infrastructure and housing and healthcare systems. It did not have the right to bomb every one of Gaza’s 12 universities. It did not have the right to block humanitarian aid, causing massive malnutrition in children and, in fact, starvation.
      And that is why I am doing everything I can to block US military aid and offensive weapons sales to the rightwing extremist Netanyahu government in Israel. And I know that many of you share those feelings. And some of you are saying, “How can I vote for Kamala Harris if she is supporting this terrible war?” And that is a very fair question.
      And let me give you my best answer. And that is that even on this issue, Donald Trump and his rightwing friends are worse. In the Senate and in Congress Republicans have worked overtime to block humanitarian aid to the starving children in Gaza. The president and vice-president both support getting as much humanitarian aid into Gaza as soon as possible.
      Trump has said that Netanyahu is doing a good job and that Biden is holding him back. He has suggested that the Gaza Strip would make excellent beachfront property for development. It is no wonder Netanyahu prefers to have Donald Trump in office.
      But even more importantly, and this I promise you, after Harris wins we will, together, do everything we can to change US policy toward Netanyahu – including an immediate ceasefire, the return of all hostages, a surge of massive humanitarian aid, the stopping of settler attacks on the West Bank, and the rebuilding of Gaza for the Palestinian people.
      A Pennsylvania judge on Wednesday sided with Donald Trump’s campaign and agreed to extend an in-person voting option in suburban Philadelphia, where long lines on the final day led to complaints voters were being disenfranchised by an unprepared election office.A lawsuit demanding an extension of Tuesday’s 5pm deadline in Bucks county until today was filed this morning after long queues outside the county’s election offices on the last day for applications led to security guards cutting off the line and telling some of those waiting they would not be able to apply.Videos of the scenes were widely circulated on social media, fuelling rumours of voter suppression.The Trump campaign was joined by the Republican National Committee (RNC) and the GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick in the lawsuit alleging that voters waiting outside election offices for mail ballots were turned away empty-handed and ordered to leave after the deadline expired at 5pm on Tuesday.“This is a direct violation of Pennsylvanians’ rights to cast their ballot – and all voters have a right to STAY in line,” the Trump campaign said.Judge Jeffrey Trauger said in a one-page order that Bucks county voters who want to apply for an early mail ballot now have until Friday.The queues for late mail ballots were a result of Pennsylvania not having an early on-site voting system at designated spots, as is the case in some other states. Instead, voters can apply for ballots on-demand at election offices before filling them out and submitting them on the spot, a procedure that takes about 10 minutes.The flood of late applicants overwhelmed electoral workers in Bucks county’s administration building in Doylestown, leading to a long queue which was cut off at around 2.45pm on Tuesday, according to CBS.Protesters interrupted Harris about 8 minutes into her remarks here.It was difficult to hear what they were saying, but I could hear the word “genocide”.The crowd began chanting “USA!” and Harris reminded the crowd that democracy was on the line in this election. “Ours is about a fight for democracy and your right to be heard. That is what is on the line in this election,” she said. “Look, everybody has a right to be heard, but right now I am speaking.”After another protester interrupted a few minutes later, she said: “At this particular moment it should be emphasized that unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe people who disagree with me are the enemy from within. He wants to put them in jail. I’ll give them a seat at the table.”Shawna Barnes, a 45-year old healthcare worker from Philadelphia, said she’s concerned that men aren’t supporting Harris in this election. When she’s knocked on doors, she’s noticed that the women are often all in, but the men are “iffy”.“Black and brown women are going to come out and support. White women of course are going to support. The men are just kind of like afraid,” she said as Mr Brightside by The Killers blasted on the sound system. “I don’t think it’s about gender, I just think it’s fear.”Kamala Harris is speaking at the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex & Expo Center in Harrisburg, where she is promoting her economic proposals.”We stand for working people, we stand for middle class growth and strength,” Harris said.She derided Donald Trump’s tariff proposals, and warned that he would dismantle the popular Affordable Care Act. “We know what’s on the line. We know that Donald Trump will try, like he has so many times to get rid of the Affordable Care Act, which would throw, millions of Americans off of their health care and take us back to when insurance companies could deny people with pre-existing conditions,” she said.Donald Trump’s team is reportedly considering withholding federal grants from police departments that decline to work with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) to ease deportations.NBC News reports that the former president’s team is working on plans to force sanctuary cities such as Chicago, and states such as California to work with the federal government to help Trump deliver on his promise of mass deportations.The Guardian has not independently verified NBC’s reporting.Withholding funding from police departments who decline to work with Ice will undoubtedly face legal challenges. During Trump’s presidency, several states sued the administration after it cut off grants to sanctuary cities, and appealed a court decision that sided with Trump – running out the clock on Trump’s term before the supreme court could issue a final decision on the matter.With six days until the 2024 election, more than 57.5 million Americans have already voted as of Wednesday afternoon, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida.Of the 57 million, just over 30 million voted early in-person and about 27 million voted by early mail.I spotted Minerva Ortiz-Garcia, 68, walking around with a small Puerto Rican flag before the rally started so I stopped her to ask what she thought of the racist joke a speaker made before Donald Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.“I feel horrible. I’m Puerto Rican, I actually started to cry,” she said. “How could someone say that about an island that is trying to survive [Hurricane] Maria?”Ortiz-Garcia, a flight attendant, lives in Easton, which is in eastern Pennsylvania, a part of the state that is extremely competitive and has a huge Latino population. She said she thought many Latino voters in her part of the state were waiting for Harris to reach out to them directly.“I think that people want her to say something directly,” she said.I’ve been chatting to a few voters at a Kamala Harris rally here at the Farm expo building in Harrisburg, where there’s a vague smell of horses as the crowd swag surfs and dances to Motown hits such as We Are Family and Aretha Franklin’s Respect.I just spoke with Corine Wherley, a 38-year-old librarian from Harrisburg who is attending her first political rally ever. She said she decided to come to the rally because she was so alarmed by what she heard during Donald Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.“A lot of it was the rhetoric around ‘this secret’ and other things like that they’re planning on doing,” she said, referring to Trump’s comment that he has a “little secret” with House speaker Mike Johnson, that many took to be a plan to contest the election. “They’re like: ‘I can do whatever I want,’ and I think that’s what scares me.”Puerto Rican reggaeton singer Nicky Jam has withdrawn his support for Donald Trump after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday.On Wednesday, the singer posted a video on social media saying: “The reason I supported Donald Trump is because I believed it was what’s best for the economy in the United States, where a lot of Latinos live … a lot of immigrants that are suffering over the state of the economy … With [Trump] being a businessman, I felt it was the right move.”He went on to add: “Never in my life did I think that a month later a comedian would come to criticize my country, to speak poorly of my country, and therefore I renounce any support to Donald Trump and move aside from any political situation. Puerto Rico deserves respect.”In September, Nicky Jam made an appearance at one of Trump’s rally during which he was misgendered by the former president.“Do you know Nicky? She’s hot!” Trump said to the crowd, adding: “Where’s Nicky? Where’s Nicky? Thank you, Nicky. Great to be having you here.”The battleground states for the White House overlap significantly with the states where Democrats are fighting to keep or gain majorities in state legislative chambers, noted Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC).“While the overlap has opened some opportunities for unprecedented collaboration, this environment has also produced steep challenges for state legislative candidates to get their message out, especially through paid communication,” Williams told reporters on a press call today.Williams noted that the Harris campaign was now spending more on paid ads each week than the DLCC’s entire budget for this election cycle, which is $60m. The gap in resources could heighten the risk of “ballot rolloff”, the phenomenon of voters only filling out the top of their ballot without continuing down to lower-level races.“Our historical data indicates that, in presidential years, we face the challenge of ballot rolloff most acutely,” Williams said. “Communicating and educating voters on who their state legislative candidates are is incredibly important to mitigate underperforming the top of the ticket.”Although much of the country is focused on the presidential and congressional races, the results of this year’s state legislative elections will have vast consequences on Americans’ everyday lives.On a press call today, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) reported that state legislative control appears to be a true toss-up in several battleground states, reflecting the neck-and-neck nature of the presidential race.“Right now, just 12 legislative seats are deciding six legislative majorities in the biggest battleground states across the country, and all our polling shows that this election will be incredibly close,” said Heather Williams, president of the DLCC.Democrats are looking to maintain their narrow majorities in state legislative chambers in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania while attempting to regain majorities in Arizona and New Hampshire. The new legislative maps in Wisconsin also represent a key opportunity for Democrats.“The stakes couldn’t be higher, as nearly half of Americans currently have their rights protected by Democratic majorities in state legislatures,” Williams said.“Decisions on fundamental freedoms are happening in the states, and many of the dangers of Project 2025 and Trump’s MAGA [’Make America Great Again’] agenda will continue to advance through our statehouses no matter the outcome at the top of the ticket.”A new CNN poll shows Kamala Harris leading over Trump by 6 points in Wisconsin and 5 points in Michigan, key battleground states.Harris leads Trump by 48% to 43% among likely voters in Michigan and 51% to 45% in Wisconsin.The candidates are tied at 48% in Pennsylvania.The vice president’s slim advantage is due in part to “relatively strong performance among White voters and White voters without college degrees, two groups which traditionally break Republican,” CNN said.Here’s a look at where things stand:

      Kamala Harris held a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, this afternoon. “Unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe people who disagree with me are the enemy,” she said.

      Kamala Harris said that she strongly disagrees with criticisms of people based on who they voted for. Speaking on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday following Joe Biden’s “garbage” remarks, Harris said that Biden had “clarified his comments”, adding, “I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they voted for.”

      Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor and former California governor, has announced he is endorsing Kamala Harris. He joins a running list of Republicans crossing party lines to vote against Donald Trump.

      The supreme court has paused the ruling by a lower court that would have restored voting rights to approximately 1,600 voters in Virginia. In its brief order, the supreme court wrote: “The application for stay presented to The Chief Justice and by him referred to the Court is granted.”

      Virginia’s Republican governor Glenn Youngkin has hailed the supreme court’s ruling, calling it a “victory for common sense and election fairness”. Youngkin had ordered state officials to identify and cancel the voter registration of alleged non-citizens unless they could prove their citizenship in two weeks.

      Tim Walz appeared on Good Morning America, saying, “We know it’s going to be close but we’re going to win this thing.” Speaking to host George Stephanopoulos, Walz said, “We’ve got the better ground game, we’ve got the excitement, we’ve got the momentum on our side.”
      “I see the promise of America in all the young leaders who are voting for the first time,” Kamala Harris said.“You’ve only known the climate crisis and are leading the charge to protect our planet and our future. You young leaders who grew up with active shooter drills, who are trying to keep our schools safe, you who have known fewer rights than your mothers and grandmothers and are standing up to fight for freedom to make your own decisions about your own bodies. None of this for you young leaders is theoretical. This is not theoretical for you. It is not political for you. For our young leaders, this is your lived experience, and I see you, and I see your power, and I am so proud of you,” she added.“Unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe people who disagree with me are the enemy,” Kamala Harris said.“He wants to put them in jail. I’ll give them a seat at the table,” she added.“We have an opportunity in this election to turn the page on a decade of Donald Trump, who has been trying to keep us divided and afraid of each other. We know that is who he is but, North Carolina, that is not who we are,” Kamala Harris said.“It is time for a new chapter where we stop with the pointing fingers at each other, and instead let us lock arms with one another, knowing we have so much more in common than what separates us,” she added.Kamala Harris is now on stage in Raleigh, North Carolina, for a campaign rally.Stay tuned as we bring you the latest updates.Donald Trump is claiming – without evidence – that Pennsylvania is cheating and has filed a lawsuit against Bucks county.In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that the state is “cheating, and getting caught, at large-scale levels rarely seen before”.He did not specify what constituted the state’s cheating.In a separate statement, Trump’s campaign announced on Wednesday that it has filed a lawsuit against Buck county for “turning away voters.”Again, without evidence, the campaign claimed that voters were being turned away early, saying:
      “The Pennsylvania Department of State made clear if voters are in line at a county elections office by 5:00PM, the counties MUST give voters the opportunity to apply for their mail-in ballot. Pennsylvania voters were turned away as early as 2:30PM.” More

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      Judge extends in-person voting option in Pennsylvania after Trump lawsuit

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      A Pennsylvania judge on Wednesday sided with Donald Trump’s campaign and agreed to extend an in-person voting option in suburban Philadelphia, where long lines on the final day led to complaints voters were being disenfranchised by an unprepared election office.A lawsuit demanding an extension of Tuesday’s 5pm deadline in Bucks county until today was filed this morning after long queues outside the county’s election offices on the last day for applications led to security guards cutting off the line and telling some of those waiting they would not be able to apply.Videos of the scenes were widely circulated on social media, fuelling rumours of voter suppression.The Trump campaign was joined by the Republican National Committee (RNC) and the GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick in the lawsuit alleging that voters waiting outside election offices for mail ballots were turned away empty-handed and ordered to leave after the deadline expired at 5pm on Tuesday.“This is a direct violation of Pennsylvanians’ rights to cast their ballot – and all voters have a right to STAY in line,” the Trump campaign said.Judge Jeffrey Trauger said in a one-page order that Bucks county voters who want to apply for an early mail ballot now have until Friday.The queues for late mail ballots were a result of Pennsylvania not having an early on-site voting system at designated spots, as is the case in some other states. Instead, voters can apply for ballots on-demand at election offices before filling them out and submitting them on the spot, a procedure that takes about 10 minutes.The flood of late applicants overwhelmed electoral workers in Bucks county’s administration building in Doylestown, leading to a long queue which was cut off at around 2.45pm on Tuesday, according to CBS.

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      Michael Whatley, the chair of the Republican National Committee, told a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania on Tuesday that Democratic election officials were trying to suppress Republican votes.“Democrat election officials are seeing our numbers. They’re seeing our turnout. They are seeing us breaking early vote records across Pennsylvania,” he said. “They are terrified. And they want to stop our momentum. We are not going to let them suppress our votes.”In a statement, Bucks county admitted there had been some “miscommunication” from officials, resulting in those waiting “briefly being told they could not be accommodated”. But this was subsequently corrected, allowing them to submit applications.“Contrary to what is being depicted on social media, if you are in line by 5pm for an on-demand mail-in ballot application, you will have the opportunity to submit your application for a mail-in ballot,” the county said.The legal action raised the prospect of further possible controversy after election day in Pennsylvania – arguably the most important battleground state in next Tuesday’s election – after Trump baselessly accused election officials of cheating.“Pennsylvania is cheating, and getting caught, at large scale levels rarely seen before,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, without providing evidence. “REPORT CHEATING TO AUTHORITIES. Law Enforcement must act, NOW!”The allegation was dismissed by Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, who accused the former president of seeking to undermine public trust in the integrity of election officials.“In 2020, Donald Trump attacked our elections over and over,” posted Shapiro, who was Pennsylvania’s attorney general four years ago when Trump tried to overturn Joe Biden’s victory. “He’s now trying to use the same playbook to stoke chaos … we will again have a free and fair, safe and secure election – and the will of the people will be respected.”Most polls show Kamala Harris with a tiny lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, which has more electoral college votes than any other battleground state and which both candidates have campaigned in more than any other state. More

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      ‘Why isn’t Trump doing a little better here?’: Arizona election on a knife-edge

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      Mark Kelly removed his sport coat and leveled with a crowd of Democrats gathered at an Indigenous-owned art collaborative in downtown Phoenix on a sweltering afternoon, days before early voting opened.In 2020, Joe Biden had won the state by just more than 10,000 votes – his narrowest margin of victory – “way less than 1%”, the Arizona senator stressed for emphasis.“This entire election could come down to Arizona,” he said. “I am not overstating this: it could come down to your friends, your neighbors, your community, your tribal members.”As the clock ticked down to yet another exceedingly close presidential contest, Kelly urged everyone in the room to redouble their efforts – to knock on one more door, attend one more phone bank, register one more voter. This, he said, was how Democrats prevail in once ruby-red Arizona.A former astronaut who flipped and defended his Senate seat in back-to-back statewide races, Kelly added wryly: “It’s not rocket science. If it was, I could help.”The senator’s call to action underlined a message both parties have been stressing for months, and especially in the final weeks before election day, on 5 November: even if Republicans hold the advantage on paper, Arizona could tip in either direction.Arizona is one of seven swing states that will probably determine who wins what White House in November. While Donald Trump has a narrow edge over Kamala Harris in the state, the Cook Political Report, the non-partisan election handicapper, has rated the presidential race a “toss up”.“Arizona is not a blue state,” said Samara Klar, a professor of political science at the University of Arizona. “A Republican candidate should be cleaning up in Arizona. So the question is – why isn’t Trump doing a little better here?”The Trump era has seen a remarkable winning streak for Arizona Democrats. They claimed the state’s open Senate seat in the 2018 midterm cycle. Two years later, they won the state’s other open Senate seat and its 11 electoral college votes, when Biden became the first Democratic presidential nominee since Bill Clinton to win the state in 1996. (Before that it was Truman, in 1948.) In 2022, Democrats narrowly swept the top three statewide offices.Their success in the birthplace of Barry Goldwater’s conservative movement is something of a political paradox. Republicans hold a solid advantage in voter registration, with about 35% of voters registering as Republican, 34% as unaffiliated and 29% as Democrats, according to data from the Arizona secretary of state. Arizona was hard hit by inflation and rising housing costs, while immigration is top of mind in the border state – both issues that favor Republicans.View image in fullscreenYet Ruben Gallego, a Democratic congressman, has maintained a stable lead over his opponent, Trump ally Kari Lake, in the US Senate contest to replace the Democrat turned independent Kyrsten Sinema. Two congressional races are seen as coin-flips. And Democrats could turn the state legislature, a long-sought prize after Republican dominance in the modern era.Underlining the sometimes-conflicting impulses of the purple state, Arizona voters are poised to approve a ballot initiative that would empower local and state officials to enforce immigration law, while choosing to enshrine abortion rights into the state’s constitution, months after a ban that would have outlawed the procedure from the moment of conception.Klar, the political scientist, says long-term demographic changes – rapid urbanization around Phoenix, an economic boom that’s brought an influx of tech jobs and college-educated transplants, and the rising political clout of a relatively young Latino electorate – have made the once Republican stronghold more competitive over time. Even if Trump prevails in Arizona, there is a growing sense that Trumpism will have cost his party.Trump’s rise electrified a segment of Arizona’s conservative base that has long had an appetite for his brand of anti-immigrant populism. But he also shattered old GOP alliances – disparaging the venerated Arizona senator, John McCain, even after his 2018 death from brain cancer, and feuding with the state’s then governor, Doug Ducey, over his refusal to overturn Trump’s 2020 defeat in the state.That tension has exploded in the party primaries, where Republican voters keep nominating candidates in Trump’s image – far-right extremists like Lake who parrot his election denialism. But these Republicans have struggled to broaden their appeal to the state’s moderate and independent voters.“Arizonans view themselves as free-spirited, non-partisan, independent – that kind of Goldwater-McCain thing,” Klar said, adding that voters here like “centrist, moderate candidates”. In the Trump years, it has been Democrats, not Republicans, reaching for McCain’s “maverick” mantle.Among those disillusioned by their party’s turn are Lynn and Roger Seeley, self-described “McCain Republicans” who recently attended a Gallego event in a suburb east of Phoenix last month.“The Arizona Republican party is not the same Republican party,” said Lynn Seeley, who plans to vote for Gallego and Harris in November. “It just doesn’t represent me any more.”Yolanda Bejarano, the chair of the Arizona Democratic party, said Democrats have steadily chipped away at Republicans’ dominance in the state by building a coalition that, she predicts, will achieve their perennial dream of winning control of the state legislature.“I’m confident that we’re going to see a bluer Arizona come November,” she said.With voting under way, there is an edge of violence. The final weeks before election day saw a man arrested for planning an “act of mass casualty” and shooting at a Democratic office on multiple occasions, while a mailbox with ballots inside was set on fire and threats were made against Republicans visiting the state.Arizonans get the pitchAcross the sprawling Phoenix region, one of the fastest-growing in America, rival Trump and Harris campaign signs dot xeriscaped yards – a mark of Arizona’s true battleground status.In the final months, a who’s who of presidential candidates and high-profile surrogates have blanketed the state. Both Harris and Trump and their running mates have made multiple swings through the state in the contest’s final weeks.With the state on a razor’s edge, the search for votes has reached new heights – and descended to new depths. Kelly, the US senator, piloted his own plane to visit rural parts of the state, while Gallego hiked to the bottom of the Grand Canyon as part of his outreach to Native voters.Harris is courting traditionally Republican Mormon voters who believe Trump’s conduct and rhetoric are at odds with that church’s values. She has racked up a collection of endorsements from some high-profile members of the church, including Jeff Flake, the conservative Arizona senator who was driven from office over his criticism of Trump and recently served as Biden’s ambassador to Turkey.Trump, meanwhile, has sought to peel away support from Native voters, who have tended to favor Democrats in Arizona elections.View image in fullscreen“We’ve had historic Native vote turnout for the last two years, for the last four years, and the Native vote has been literally the margin in some of these past races,” Stephen Roe Lewis, governor of the Gila River Indian Community, said.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionWhen asked about the outreach to Native voters, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, said at a rally in Peoria this month that many of these voters hadn’t ever voted Republican, but issues like border security and unaffordability hit Indigenous nations hard, too.Republicans have also made inroads with Latinos, who make up about one-quarter of the state’s electorate and were a critical part of Biden’s winning coalition in 2020.But since then, one in three voters who switched their party affiliation from Democratic to Republican were Hispanic, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of the state’s voter registration data. Only 40% of Arizona’s Hispanic voters are currently registered Democrats, compared with 47% four years ago.Lea Marquez Peterson, a Republican and member of the Arizona Corporation Commission, has been a part of that effort. Through the Hispanic Leadership Pac, which she launched to help elect more conservative Latino politicians to office, Marquez Peterson has been hosting cafecitos with voters across southern Arizona.They keep telling her the same thing: Arizonans are fed up with the high cost of housing and food.“You hear a lot about inflation numbers dropping and that things are easing, but I think among the community, among my own family, we still see the high price of grocery store items and, as a business person, certainly the high cost of steel and lumber,” she said. “I don’t think we’re feeling any change yet.”Harris trails Trump but Republicans see warning signsUnderlining the sometimes-conflicting impulses of the purple state, it appears likely that Arizonans will approve the measure to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution, overturning the current 15-week ban. But Arizonas are also predicted to vote for an anti-immigration ballot measure that would empower local and state officials to arrest and deport border-crossers.Republicans believe Harris is especially vulnerable on immigration in Arizona, a border state that has grappled with the impact of record migration.On a campaign swing in late September, Harris paced a scrubby stretch of border wall in an attempt to confront what Republicans believe is her biggest political vulnerability: immigration. At an event after the visit, in the border town of Douglas, she was introduced by a mother who lost her son to fentanyl and a Republican who touted her record of taking on transnational criminal gangs as the attorney general of California. When Harris spoke, she pledged to further restrict asylum and blamed Trump for derailing a bipartisan border deal earlier this year.“I reject the false choice that suggests we must choose either between securing our border and creating a system that is orderly, safe and humane,” Harris said. “We can and we must do both.”The border visit was aimed at winning the moderate-leaning Republicans who could defect from their party but rank immigration as a top consideration. It will only become clear next week whether Harris has managed to persuade them.View image in fullscreenMeanwhile, Democrats here hope a ballot initiative to protect abortion rights will help drive out the very voters who have powered their wins in this desert battleground – young people, suburban women and independents.Under pressure, and amid much drama, the Republican-controlled legislature voted earlier this year to repeal an 1864 ban on abortion that dated from before Arizona was even a state, opting for a prohibition on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.Polls suggest it is entirely possible that voters here will act to protect abortion rights and also elect Trump, the man who claims credit for overturning Roe.The abortion rights initiative is “not a silver bullet for any one political party”, said Athena Salman, the director of Arizona campaigns for Reproductive Freedom for All and a former Democratic state legislator.If Harris wins Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, it could renew questions about whether the Republican party is on the right course in Arizona. Voters there seem to be more comfortable with traditional Republicanism over Maga Republicanism, though Trump is the exception.Trump seems to have some quality, some “rogue’s charm”, that those in his image can’t seem to replicate, said Kirk Adams, a Republican consultant for former Arizona House speaker who served as chief of staff to the last Republican governor.The firebrand Lake, who lost her run for Arizona governor in 2022, differs little on policy from the former president, but can’t capture his appeal with voters.“Sometimes I have actually questioned if winning is even their goal,” Adams said of candidates like Lake. “You can run a race and be successful, because now you become a social media star. You have lots of followers. You can monetize it. You don’t necessarily have to win elections to have a following.”Trump’s team, at least, is taking nothing for granted.“Here’s the scenario that I want you to consider, and I don’t mean to give you nightmare fuel here, but I’m going to do it,” Vance said at a recent rally in the state. “We wake up on November 6, and Kamala Harris is barely elected president of the United States by a 700-vote margin in the state of Arizona. Think about that. And ask yourself what you can do from now until then to make sure it doesn’t happen.” More

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      View image in fullscreenThe conspiracy theory that the 2020 election was stolen is now mainstream on the right. Believers are undeterred by the fact that the election was free and fair and the lack of evidence of fraud. Those who seek to correct the misinformation become targets of Donald Trump and his allies.As Trump runs for re-election, he has laid the groundwork to make a bevy of stolen election claims after 5 November, many of which are retreads of those made in 2020 or other elections. They include the false claim that non-citizens are voting in broad numbers, attacks on the voting and counting process, misunderstandings of how elections work and opportunism when human errors occur.If Trump wins, these lies could be used to target down-ballot races. If Trump loses, election lies could reach levels seen in 2020 – or beyond.Trump has not committed to accepting the results of the 2024 election. “If I lose – I’ll tell you what, it’s possible. Because they cheat. That’s the only way we’re gonna lose, because they cheat,” Trump said during a rally in September.Here is a rundown of some of the most pervasive myths about elections, how they are run and who votes in them.Are non-citizens voting en masse?Republicans, led by Trump and his allies, have repeatedly claimed without evidence that non-citizens are voting en masse in US elections. It is illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal elections. States verify citizenship, and voting illegally could lead to deportation. Still, people such as Elon Musk have elevated these falsehoods, claiming that Democrats are trying to “import voters”.There is no evidence that non-citizens are voting, or even registering to vote, in significant numbers. Republicans have tried to get around that lack of evidence by relying on gut feelings. “We all know – intuitively – that a lot of illegals are voting in federal elections. But it’s not been something that is easily provable,” the House speaker, Mike Johnson, said as he pushed for legislation to address the non-problem.In the run-up to November, some states have sought to purge their voter rolls of potential non-citizens, though these purges have run into legal trouble for discriminating against a group of voters or for attempting to remove voters within 90 days of an election, which is not legal. And the purges have ensnared eligible voters, both naturalized citizens and US-born ones.The Republican National Committee has filed lawsuits in some states claiming the voter rolls were not maintained and could contain non-citizens, though experts say the attacks on voter rolls appear more designed for publicity purposes than serious legal concerns.Are voting machines adding fake votes? And will hand counting save us?Since the 2020 election, claims have continued to spread that machines used to tabulate votes somehow injected ballots in favor of Democrats, though no proof has been offered to support these claims. These attacks may well emerge again in 2024. Already, an account on X with nearly 250,000 followers wrote that Democrats were going to steal the election by printing “MILLIONS of fake ballots” and then unloading “PALLETS of BALLOTS and run them through the machines”. The post was viewed more than 4m times.Repeated attacks on voting machines have led the companies that make them, including Dominion Voting Systems and Smartmatic, to file lawsuits against media outlets that spread these lies, resulting in settlements against the outlets, including one for $787.5m against Fox News.In some places, there has been a push for hand-counting ballots – a costlier, slower and less accurate method of tabulation.A group of hand-count supporters has toured the country trying to get local jurisdictions to adopt the practice, with limited success in some smaller areas. A rule change in Georgia to hand-count ballots was blocked by a judge there.What is ‘certification’, and why are some local officials blocking it?A key way election deniers could seek to overturn results in November is through the certification process.In US elections, local elections officials oversee the counting of ballots, often referred to as the canvass. County or town elected officials then sign off on those results in what is known as a certification. The role of these county or town officials is to acknowledge the count, not act as a referee. This function is mandatory, not discretionary.Across the country, there have been a few instances of officials refusing to certify results. In Georgia, some election officials refused to certify results in this year’s presidential primary. In Cochise county, Arizona, two Republican county supervisors initially refused to certify, requiring a court to order them to do so, after which one of the two reversed her vote. Those supervisors were criminally charged by the state’s Democratic attorney general in part to deter others from trying a similar stunt.Delaying a certification could disenfranchise voters whose elected officials refused to acknowledge their votes were cast. Courts have uniformly responded to force certification in the instances where it was refused or delayed since 2020, but these delays undermine the electoral process and can be costly.Are Democrats cheating with overseas voters?Trump and rightwing media, including Gateway Pundit, a site that is particularly prolific in the realm of election misinformation, have claimed that Democrats are trying to cheat by getting overseas US citizens to vote. But this is legal.Nearly 3 million people who live abroad, including US military members and their families, are eligible to vote via the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act.Democrats have estimated a much higher number, saying in a memo that 9 million Americans abroad could be eligible to vote. This set off rumors that Democrats were planning to fraudulently register people, and that this could become an avenue for foreign interference in elections. The Center for an Informed Public at the University of Washington broke down how the rumor spread and debunked it.(According to the University of Washington, the Democrats’ claim of 9 million eligible voters was “erroneous”.)Voting by mail/early voting/voting drop boxes: does it involve fraud?Trump and his allies have often attacked voting by mail, saying it isn’t secure. They have also attacked drop boxes that allow voters to deposit their ballots quickly and easily. Some have pushed for one day of voting, only in person, which would greatly curtail voter access.In Arizona in 2022, some activists camped out at drop boxes, some armed or in tactical gear, to monitor people dropping off ballots, until the courts curtailed the practice.But this year, Trump and the Republican party have changed course and encouraged their voters to turn out early and cast ballots by mail if it’s their preference, a sign that they were losing votes by discouraging these practices.Still, if Trump loses, he could again claim that voting by mail, the use of drop boxes or early voting in general are compromised by fraud.Human errors and unexpected controversiesEvery election sees human errors, most of which do not affect people’s ability to vote or vote totals. But these errors can become sources of misinformation, as can benign circumstances that are spun into controversies.If recent history is any precedent, prepare for some kind of pen debacle.In 2020, and to a lesser extent in the 2022 midterms, the type of pens given out to voters in Maricopa county, Arizona, figured in a number of conspiracies. Dubbed “Sharpiegate” in 2020, the use of Sharpies did not affect people’s votes, though some on the right spread this claim because the markers can bleed through and leave a mark on the other side of a two-sided ballot. (This doesn’t affect how a vote is read by a tabulator.)In 2022, the county switched to a different felt-tip pen, but for some, it didn’t matter: they still encouraged voters not to use the county-provided pens, even though those pens were best for the printers and prevented ink from gumming up machines.Legitimate errors can also lead to outsized criticism. In Minnesota this month, the hatch of a ballot transport van was left open and unattended, with ballots in it, for about 10 minutes. The ballots were undisturbed, security footage showed, but a photo of the open van spread widely, causing controversy.The Minnesota secretary of state, Scott Simon, a Democrat, said the incident was “inexcusable and totally unacceptable”, and his office sent a bulletin out to local elections officials to remind them to double down on security, he said.“All it takes is one sloppy, inattentive person to call into question the really good and conscientious work of thousands and thousands of people,” he told the Guardian. “So it’s frustrating to see, but we’re trying to make it a teachable moment in our office.”‘Delays’ and recounts: usually not something to worry aboutVote counting takes time. US elections are complex – in some places, ballots can run longer than a page, with voters weighing in on races from president down to school boards. Verifying signatures on mail-in ballots, used widely in some states, can take days. In a fast-paced society, the slow pace of counting accurately can surely be frustrating.And in places where elections are especially close, all eyes will be watching as the vote-counting continues well beyond election day. Claims might emerge about how these slow counts are somehow indicative of fraud.This could be especially true in Arizona, which has close races and particularly large counties. Lawmakers there have also altered the recount threshold since the 2020 election – now, an automatic recount is triggered if a race is within 0.5%, up from 0.1%. This led to several recounts in the 2022 midterms, including for the state attorney general. Depending on how close the presidential race or other key matchups are, these recounts could become a source for misinformation.Republicans have pressed for faster results as well as for more checks on the voting process, two ideas that are frequently at odds. Trump has used the window between the end of voting and the finalization of results to declare victory in the past. In 2020, he planned in advance to call himself the winner even if it wasn’t clear he actually was, Axios reported at the time.As votes are counted, one candidate may replace another in the lead. This is not evidence that ballots have somehow been injected, as has sometimes been alleged. It is rather the function of how counting works: as more ballots are tabulated, totals change. More

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      How local radio plays a pivotal role in securing Latino votes in Colorado

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      When Yadira Caraveo, a Democratic party member, won the race to represent Colorado’s eighth district in the House of Representatives in 2022, she eked out a victory, winning by the narrowest margin of any Democrat in the country. This November, Caraveo is facing yet another close race – one that could determine the balance of Congress.In a district where nearly 40% of residents identify as Hispanic or Latino, the community will be decisive in crowning a winner. The battle for their votes is mostly playing out not on TV or in town halls, but on social media and local radio.“[Latino voters] are listening to social media and the radio,” said Sonny Subia, Colorado’s volunteer state director for Lulac, the League of United Latin American Citizens, the largest and oldest Hispanic organization in the country.CD-8 stretches from the suburbs of Denver, where voters lean Democratic, to the agricultural areas around Greeley, where voters lean Republican. Caraveo, a pediatrician whose Mexican parents raised their four children in what is now the eighth district, is highlighting her efforts to lower healthcare costs and her ability to work across the aisle to represent a split constituency.View image in fullscreenHer Republican challenger, Gabe Evens, is also Latino. Evans is campaigning on his experience as a farmer and his background in law enforcement and the military, sharing how his Mexican grandfather received two Purple Hearts in the second world war.In CD-8, “people aren’t just one-sided”, said Angel Merlos, strategic director in Colorado of the Libre Initiative, a conservative organization that mobilizes the Hispanic vote around principles of limited government. “You have to make your case as to why you want their vote.”In a race that close, the battle for votes can be fierce. And voting rights groups have been sounding the alarm about disinformation targeting Latinos in the US. In September, the US justice department intervened in operations by Russian state media to spread disinformation about the general election to US audiences, including citizens “of Hispanic descent”.Roughly one in five Latinos prefers to get news from social media, where misinformation has found fertile ground. The key to the potency of mis- and disinformation in 2024 is how much cheaper and easier it is for lies to proliferate on social media platforms that enhance engaging material, said Laura Zommer, CEO and co-founder of Factchequeado, a Spanish-language factchecking organization.Spanish-language radio, too, has at times been a source of misleading and inaccurate information, repeating and reinforcing false narratives that are circulating in the wider information ecosystem. Nearly half of Latinos tune into the radio for news, and Latino immigrants are much more likely than U.S.-born Latinos to say they mainly consume news in Spanish.A 2024 study from the Digital Democracy Institute of the Americas found that Latinos are not necessarily more vulnerable to misinformation than the rest of the population. But, the authors concluded, there is a need for culturally competent information, especially targeting more susceptible subgroups including Latinos who are Spanish-dominant and consume more broadcast news and Spanish-language media.In CD-8, a program that compares radio recordings against thousands of factchecked statements from respected organizations identified only a few instances of potential misinformation in a week’s worth of recording nine local Spanish-language stations.

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      For example, on a Monday evening at the end of October on KNRV a news bulletin inaccurately stated that Donald Trump was leading in national polls by nearly 8%, when most polls that day showed Harris in the lead by nearly 2 points. The station advertises that it rents air space to a variety of programs and hosts; this evening news segment came from the Mexican radio network Radio Formula.An ad in another news segment incorrectly cited a recent poll from the Colorado Health Foundation that asked respondents about their major concerns. The ad exaggerated how many Latino respondents expressed extreme worry about not being able to feed their families in the next year.Disinformation uses “content that activates our ire, our grievances, sometimes an incredible hope”, said Zommer. Sometimes the goal is to persuade someone of a lie, and sometimes it can be to sow doubt and mistrust or divide people. “Many times the most successful disinformation has an element of truth and it’s taken out of context, or it has an element of truth and it’s exaggerated,” she said.Conversations heard on the radio in CD-8 reflect heightened tensions around immigration in the local Latino community. Stacy Suniga, president of the Latino Coalition of Weld county said Latinos in her district are hearing more insults in public places like grocery stores. “I think there are issues on top of their issues, with the radical display of racism,” she said.In some instances, the tension is between Latinos. Merlos said Latinos are complaining to Libre organizers about Venezuelan immigrants getting what they see as preferential treatment from the government. On a midday program in mid-October KNRV, a caller expressed frustration with how Denver, like Chicago and New York, had deployed city resources to help newly arrived Venezuelans. “I’m going to go with Trump although he’s not someone I consider a good person,” he said, “but I’m against Biden’s party for what he’s done at the border.”View image in fullscreenThis could be part of a misleading narrative using the arrival of Venezuelan immigrants to drive a wedge between voters. Zommer highlighted the power of “fragmenting, dividing, between whites and Latinos, but also between Latinos: Latinos living, working, paying taxes – and the new Latinos.”Callers and guests are often a source of misleading and inaccurate claims that air on the radio. A 2021 report that analyzed disinformation about January 6 on four Spanish-language radio stations in south Florida found that hosts play an important role in contextualizing and correcting callers on the air. It’s important, as well, for stations to clearly distinguish between news segments and programs that air opinions or commentary.On KNRV, the host immediately jumped in, correcting the caller’s belief that the southern border is “open”, explaining that Venezuelans received political asylum for the crisis happening in their country, and insisting that while it felt unfair, Latinos should not let this issue divide them.For Zommer, this conflict is part of a wider disinformation narrative in effect updating “the big lie”, or the baseless claim that the 2020 election was stolen, for 2024: that the Biden administration has allowed for an open southern border so immigrants can cross and vote in the election. “In this new narrative of disinformation, there is no way to factcheck it because it’s what they’re saying is going to happen in the future.”Jordan Rynning contributed reporting More

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      in US Politics

      Alexi Lalas keeps tweeting Maga propaganda. Does it matter?

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      As the US men’s national team prepared to kick off against Panama earlier this month, Soccer Twitter warmed up for the first game of the Mauricio Pochettino era.Amid his routine match analysis, America’s most prominent soccer pundit retweeted old footage of Barack Obama discussing immigration policy that surfaced in an attempt to make the former president appear hypocritical and discredit Kamala Harris by association.The jarring mix of sports and politics is normal for Alexi Lalas, who stands out among soccer broadcasters for his open engagement with the imminent American presidential election and for his party affiliation.Lalas gave an interview on the Fox Business channel in July from the Republican National Convention which careened from how the event is “a cool place to be” to a discussion of the Barcelona prodigy Lamine Yamal. Speaking on Fox News radio from the convention, Lalas said he wants to challenge “the stereotype that exists when it comes to Republicans and certainly the right side of the political spectrum … I live in California, I work in soccer, I’m like a unicorn when it comes to politics out there and yet there are a lot of things that can unite us.”To judge by the volume of online abuse he attracts and airs on X – and to which he often responds with wit and generosity – his political output is having the opposite effect. That’s not surprising when his feed amplifies right-wing talking points, such as Lalas’ recent rehashing of video of a publicity stunt in which Donald Trump served fries to fawning supporters at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s in a specious attempt to taunt Harris.The ginger-bearded face of American soccer in the 1990s, a defender and rock musician who played in Serie A and won 96 caps for the USMNT, Lalas played every minute of the host nation’s four matches at the 1994 World Cup and became, wrote The Los Angeles Times, “the cult figure of America’s high summer”. After retirement he worked as an MLS executive, including for the Los Angeles Galaxy when they signed David Beckham.The mellow, mumbling kid who let David Letterman trim his pumpkin-hued goatee after USA ’94 is now a 54-year-old greying purveyor of indignant tirades for Fox Sports, proudly repping a segment of society who equate the profundity of their patriotism with the prominence of their Stars and Stripes flags and the decibel level of their bellowing about American greatness.With viral clips often attracting more views than live broadcasts on traditional TV channels, there is clear value in being the blowtorch of hot-take merchants. Given the sonic vanilla that is the corporate agenda-driven coverage of MLS on Apple TV, there may be a market for a celebrated American personality who provides and provokes trenchant opinions. But does that hold true when the talk moves from Pochettino’s right-wing to that of the GOP?“When you’re in the entertainment sector, going political tends to have very little upside because this country seems to be perpetually split, 49 to 48, and just in general it’s not going to make one side love you more because they’re just looking at what you’re doing on the field and in the announcer booth. But it will set off the other side,” says Mike Lewis, professor of marketing at Emory University and author of Fandom Analytics, a data-driven analysis of sports supporters.Lalas, a Ron DeSantis fan whose soccer podcast is called State of the Union in a nod to the president’s annual address, has more than 400,000 followers on X. “It’s my channel. I program it with what I like and what I find interesting. If it offends your sensibilities, there are millions of other channels for you to choose from. Go in peace,” Lalas wrote this month to a reader baffled by his divisive posts, which are typically retweets without additional commentary – an unusually coy style for him.That’s true for social media. But given his centrality to Fox’s coverage and the exclusivity of their rights, viewers will find it harder to swerve Lalas if they want to watch some of the biggest matches in the sport. And given how polarised and piqued the nation is and how intertwined party affiliation has become with personal identity, if viewers are aware of his political leanings, can they divorce that from his on-screen presence, even when he’s purely talking soccer? Do liberals want to hear a verdict on Christian Pulisic from Lalas any more than they want to buy a Tesla from the Trump super-booster Elon Musk?View image in fullscreen“It’s almost like a reflexive thing,” Lewis says, “that that’s an enemy now, and I don’t want to listen to an enemy while I watch the US men’s soccer team.” The risk of alienating roughly half your consumer base may be partially offset by the appeal of being perceived as bucking the liberal consensus as an unafraid and unfiltered Republican ambassador from deep blue Los Angeles in a progressive-leaning sport historically disparaged by conservatives.Like Trump, Lalas suggested the US were too woke after they went out of last year’s Women’s World Cup, and did not deviate from Republican orthodoxy in 2020 with a critical tweet when NWSL players took the knee for the national anthem. The Republican Party’s widespread antipathy towards diversity, equity, inclusion and belonging initiatives conflicts with the mission statement of the US Soccer Federation, which declares, “we integrate DEIB into everything we do”.There is a balancing act in playing a high-profile role in a mainstream channel – Fox, after all, has the rights to the 2026 World Cup – then sliding into the right-wing media ecosystem, where many conservatives have found audiences by stoking grievances and trolling the libs. One recent Lalas repost reads: “I check X for two reasons. Elon’s latest meme and seeing who Alexi ticked off today”.Fox Sports and Lalas declined to comment for this article. Like Fox News, Fox Sports is part of the Fox Corporation, which is controlled by Rupert Murdoch and family. So is the conservative-leaning sports news site, Outkick, which vows to question “the consensus and [expose] the destructive nature of ‘woke’ activism” and often cites Lalas.Politics and soccer are far from strangers. Two of the UK’s leading soccer broadcasters, Gary Lineker and Gary Neville, drew ire from British right-wingers for their criticism of the last Conservative government, with Lineker briefly removed from the BBC’s flagship football programme in 2023 for tweets about asylum policy that the broadcaster said breached impartiality rules.The American landscape, however, has changed since Jemele Hill was suspended by ESPN in 2017 for calling Trump a “white supremacist” on X and the network introduced a social media policy discouraging employees from openly taking sides and offering commentary beyond sports. Sticking to sports now seems blinkered. The ESPN star, Stephen A Smith, frequently opines on politics on other platforms and recently sparred with Fox News’ Sean Hannity. Fox Sports’ Colin Cowherd also talks politics, as does Dan LeBatard, who started his own podcast after criticisms of Trump contributed to his departure from ESPN.“There’s a price to pay for it. That’s why it is so hard to figure out the right policy, it’s very challenging to sort through what is a restriction on someone’s free speech” versus protecting the employer’s brand and reputation, says Patrick Crakes, a media consultant and former Fox Sports executive.“One of the reasons a lot of major sports personalities don’t [talk politics] is because you are a very general market, and do you really want to have to take 50% of the people that see you and fight them, or alienate them or make them uncomfortable with you? Sports, traditionally, I feel it was neutral ground. That’s increasingly changed.”Though political talk remains rare during game broadcasts and few commentators have overtly revealed political stances, perceptions of partisanship have become ingrained. “Republican-identifying sports media consumers find NBC Sports to be the most biased sports media outlet; Democratic-identifying sports media consumers find Fox Sports to be the most biased sports media outlet,” according to a survey for the University of Texas’ annual Politics in Sports Media report. “This suggests that the sports networks are reputationally connected to their parent news organizations.” The poll also found that 80% of Republicans do not want athletes to share their political beliefs compared with only 42% of Democrats.The line has also blurred between voters and spectators. “In the Trump era, we’ve started to see these political rallies that look like sporting events where you can have guys essentially face-painted up, they’ve got the red hats, the matching uniforms,” Lewis says. “I think there’s really powerful similarities between sports and politics in the way fandom works, particularly in the way fandom is so closely related to people’s identities.”The subordination of issues to identity and policies to personality means affiliations are ossified and compromise impossible, with Democrats no more likely to switch to supporting Republicans than would a Liverpool fan change allegiance to Manchester United. “If I’m teaching a class on sports marketing and I’m talking about fandom and I ask someone a question, ‘who are you a fan of,’ if they start to tell me two teams, there’s almost a reaction: ‘well, you’re not really a fan. You can’t like the Yankees and the Mets!’” Lewis says.“I think of it all as culture at this point. There’s almost this seamless connection across all these categories, entertainment to sports to politics,” he adds. “They are the culture, they are all happening simultaneously and all affecting each other.” Strangely, when everything is linked it feels like everything is fractured.Last year, Lalas wrote of the USWNT: “Politics, causes, stances, & behavior have made this team unlikeable to a portion of America.” Well, they could respond: right back at ya. And left-leaning observers might doubt the analytical prowess of a professional critic who, to apply a football metaphor to the politics on his X feed, focuses on one team’s shirt-pulling while ignoring the two-footed tackles flying in from the other side, and hails the “authenticity” of a serial liar and flip-flopper.More broadly, though, in a climate where it’s standard that politicians speak out on sports and countless celebrities issue political opinions and endorsements, why shouldn’t sports personalities enjoy the same freedom of expression? If we feel Lalas should keep quiet, shouldn’t we also feel that way about Bruce Springsteen and Taylor Swift?One difference: other forms of artistic expression, such as music, drama and writing, are often conceived and performed as explicit political statements while sports have been treated as a break from reality, not a reflection of it. That’s no longer sustainable as social media entangles news and opinion, the public and the personal. Wisely or not, Lalas isn’t only opposing a liberal consensus, he’s contributing to the erasure of a naive illusion. More