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      Unregulated, unrestrained: era of the online political ad comes to midterms

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      Unregulated, unrestrained: era of the online political ad comes to midterms Parties once focused on TV but now a billion-dollar effort embraces the highly targeted and almost rule-free digital worldThe advert is in grainy black and white, with an edgy horror movie soundtrack. As gunfights erupt in the streets, the narrator announces in a gravelly bass voice that John Fetterman, Democratic candidate for a US Senate seat in Pennsylvania, “has a love affair with criminals”.Fetterman has voted “over and over to release the state’s most violent criminals, including murderers”, the narrator says. If elected, he would “keep the drugs flowing, the killers killing, and the children dying”.Republicans and Democrats are spending billions on ads – with very different messagesRead moreThe advert was laser-targeted on a demographic which was seminal in securing Joe Biden’s victory in 2020: women over 25 in the suburbs of Philadelphia. That same group could now hold the fate of the Senate in its hands.Should Philadelphia’s female suburban voters come out for Fetterman on 8 November, they could push him over the winning line in his battle with the Republican nominee, Mehmet Oz. That in turn could help the Democratic party retain control of the upper chamber, and by doing so keep Biden’s agenda alive.The stakes could not be higher. Yet the Philadelphia women who were bombarded with the “Fetterman loves criminals” ad 6m times over just 10 days through YouTube and Google were told next to nothing about who was behind it.“Paid for by Citizens for Sanity” is all that the advert reveals in small type at the end of the 30-second video. It took the sleuthing of the non-profit group Open Secrets to expose the producers as former members of Donald Trump’s inner circle, including the far-right senior White House adviser Stephen Miller.From the other side of the political spectrum comes another grainy black-and-white attack ad, titled Herschel Walker Can’t Be Our Senator. The ad is also targeted exclusively at women, but this time in Georgia, where another nail-bitingly close Senate race is reaching its climax.“Herschel Walker,” the ad begins, referring to the former NFL star now running as a Republican for a Georgia Senate seat. “Decades of violence against women. Guns. Razor blades. Choking. Stalking.”The female voters who were besieged by the ad some 60,000 times over four days were only told that it was created by a group named “Georgia Honor”. Open Secrets records that the group is a Super Pac that supports the incumbent Democratic senator, Raphael Warnock, and has so far spent $34m in assailing Walker.Two grainy black-and-white videos out of a vast mountain of political advertising which is on track this year to smash midterm spending records. It may even exceed the amount poured into the 2020 presidential cycle.The total investment in 2022 is projected by the non-partisan ad tracking firm AdImpact to be $9.7bn, pushing America close to a stunning new norm: the $10bn election.Of that, AdImpact estimates that 30% of the political advertising spend, about $2.9bn, is going into digital advertising or to ads placed through connected TV (CTV) – smart TVs that support video content streaming through apps such as Roku or Apple TV.Such vast sums suggest that the age of the online political ad is firmly upon us. It has been propelled by the “cord-cutting” generation which has dispensed with conventional television in favour of streaming and on-demand formats.Take Priorities USA, the largest Democratic Super Pac. It has decided to place its entire $30m spend in 2022 in the digital basket – the first time it has entirely dropped broadcast TV advertising.“Online is where more people are spending their time, especially Black and Latino voters who are critical to the coalition that we are trying to build,” Aneesa McMillan, Priorities’ deputy executive director, told the Guardian. Some 45% of the Super Pac’s spending this cycle has gone on reaching African American and Latino voters, using platform data on social media and YouTube, as well as keywords associated with demographic groups, to target the message.McMillan said that the shift online was informed by research. The group found that 75% of the TV ads they injected into House races in 2020 went to homes outside the congressional district to be consumed by people who could not even vote in the relevant elections.The conclusion was clear: “Digital is much more efficient,” she said.The rise of online political advertising began tentatively with Barack Obama’s first presidential campaign in 2008 and has grown exponentially every cycle since. Despite its billion-dollar size, the world of online political ads remains almost entirely unregulated.Outside groups, which have beamed millions of attack ads on to voters’ smart TVs and tablets this year, can do so without having to meet federal rules on disclosing who they are or whose money they are spending.“We live in an increasingly online society, and political campaigns are moving online, but federal transparency rules have never been updated to take that into account,” said Daniel Weiner, head of the elections and government program at the non-partisan Brennan Center.Adav Noti, legal director of the non-profit Campaign Legal Center, spent 10 years as a lawyer at the Federal Election Commission (FEC) which is responsible for enforcing campaign finance laws. He expressed dismay at the agency’s inability to keep up with a dramatically changing media landscape.“We are more than a decade into an era of campaigns increasingly being conducted through digital, and the only government agency charged with regulating that activity has done nothing about it. Literally not a single piece of regulation.”Noti said that one of the effects of the FEC failing to engage with the explosion in online political advertising has been that social media giants and other big digital platforms have been left to their own devices. “Facebook, Google, TikTok and the rest have become the de facto regulators, and they set their own rules.”The big players have gone in different directions. Facebook and Google have both set up public databases listing their political ads, introducing a modicum of transparency.Other platforms such as TikTok have prohibited political advertising, though candidates are increasingly using the sites directly as megaphones.Attempts by Congress to legislate for more accountability have all succumbed on the rock of Republican intransigence in the US Senate. The Honest Ads Act, a bipartisan bill backed by the Brennan Center that would make digital ads subject to the same disclosure rules as broadcast TV and radio, was included in the Freedom to Vote Act that failed to overcome a Republican filibuster in January.In the absence of central regulation, outside groups can distribute extreme or false messages with impunity. Citizens for Sanity, the Super Pac created by former Trump advisers, blasted out an advert last month attacking Biden’s immigration policy.It was viewed 600,000 times over nine days by voters in the border state of Arizona.“Who is Joe Biden letting in?” its female narrator asks. “Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats have erased our southern border and released a record number of illegal immigrants into the United States, all at your expense.”The ad goes on to warn about a “giant flood of illegal immigration” that was “threatening your family”. It accuses Biden of allowing drug dealers, sex traffickers and violent predators into the country, one of whom raped a little girl.“She was three years old,” the narrator says.The Poynter Institute’s factchecking unit, Politifact, reviewed the ad. It found that the immigrant who allegedly sexually assaulted a three-year old girl had been in the US since at least 2011; he has been behind bars since February 2020 – almost a year before Biden entered the White House.Politifact rated the advert “False”.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsSocial mediaAdvertisingDigital mediaRepublicansDemocratsfeaturesReuse this content More

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      Why the US midterms matter – from abortion rights to democracy

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      ExplainerWhy the US midterms matter – from abortion rights to democracyGuardian writers lay down what’s on the line and what a Republican victory could mean for the future of the country America is hurtling towards the first nationwide test of its democracy since Donald Trump left the White House and his supporters mounted a deadly insurrection at the US Capitol. The midterm elections on Tuesday will decide control of Congress as well as 36 state governorships – but will also be a referendum on Joe Biden’s presidency, and fire the starting gun for the race to the White House in 2024.Here’s why the midterms matter for some of the biggest issues facing the US – and the world:The 2024 presidential electionA frenzy of speculation over the 2024 presidential race is likely to begin even before the last vote is cast in 2022. Midterm elections are typically seen as a referendum on the incumbent president. If Democrats suffer heavy losses in the House of Representatives, Senate and state governors’ mansions, the buck stops with Biden.There may be calls, especially from the left, for him to announce that he is not running again. He turns 80 on 20 November and is already the oldest president in American history. His potential successor would need time to build a political brand and establish a fundraising apparatus. But there is no obvious heir apparent and Biden can point to history: both Bill Clinton and Obama suffered midterm rebukes in 1994 and 2010 only to bounce back and win reelection.On the Republican side, Trump faces a test of his own electoral viability. A pattern of defeats for candidates he endorsed in states such as Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Ohio might prompt more pragmatic Republicans to question whether the 76-year-old former president represents the party’s best shot at the White House. But victories for candidates who support Trump’s big lie about a stolen election would also raise fears about democracy itself in 2024. David SmithUkraineRussia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 shocked Americans. Eight months later, most Americans continue to support efforts to aid Ukraine though polling suggests that the war – and foreign policy more broadly – isn’t one of the major issues driving their vote this cycle.Nevertheless, the midterms could have dramatic consequences for Ukraine. Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, who hopes to become the House Speaker if his party wins control of the chamber in November, has said Congress would no longer “write a blank check to Ukraine”. Those comments drew strong rebukes from Democrats and divided Republicans.Biden has also repeatedly spoken about the war in the context of rising fuel prices, a top concern among voters that Republicans have used to attack Democrats’ economic policies. In response, Biden has sought to blame Russian president Vladimir Putin, saying high gas prices are the cost of imposing crippling sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine. The US president has also argued that standing with Ukraine is critical to defending democratic values, which are under attack around the world. On the campaign trail, a growing number of Republicans have criticized Biden for sending aid to Ukraine while Americans are suffering from high inflation at home, a sign of a wider fissure in the party over the war. In some instances, far-right acolytes of Donald Trump, like Georgia congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, have even echoed Moscow talking points. Such views are only a minority in the party, but if Republicans win the House, members like Greene will surely see their political clout rise. Lauren GambinoDemocracySeveral Republican candidates who have doubted the 2020 election are on the cusp of winning gubernatorial, attorneys general, and secretary of state contests in Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, and other key battleground states. Those offices all play a role in ensuring that votes are lawfully cast and counted. If these candidates win, they would oversee the 2024 presidential election in their states. There is already deep concern they would use their positions to sow confusion to try to overturn the result of the 2024 vote, refusing to seat any candidate who defeats Trump.Jim Marchant, a Republican running for Nevada’s top election official, has said explicitly this is his goal: “When I’m secretary of state of Nevada, we are going to fix it, and when my coalition of secretary of state candidates around the country get elected we’re going to fix the whole country, and President Trump is going to be president again in 2024,” he said at a rally last month.Meanwhile, if Republicans take control of the US House, as they are expected to, election denialism will be prominent among its members there too: 124 candidates who either denied or doubted the election are heavily favored to win their contests, according to FiveThirtyEight. Republicans could use their new majority to launch investigations, hold hearings, and spread misinformation about elections. A Republican victory in either House of Congress would quickly end whatever slim chance remained of Democrats passing any kind of federal voting rights legislation. That stalemate would essentially preserve the status quo for at least another two years. Even though they have controlled both chambers of Congress since 2020, Democrats have been unable to pass any kind of voting rights legislation because of the filibuster, a procedural rule in the US senate that requires 60 votes to advance legislation. Sam LevineJudgesTrump appointed more than 200 judges to the federal judicial system during his single four-year term – arguably his most profound legacy. The judges’ decisions touch millions of lives. This was never better illustrated than in June when the supreme court – with three out of nine justices appointed by Trump – overturned the constitutional right to abortion.Biden has been fighting back. As of 8 August, he had appointed 75 judges to the federal bench, far more than Trump or Barack Obama at the same stages of their presidencies. These included a record number of women and people of color, most notably Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first African American woman to serve as a supreme court justice.All this has been made possible by a Senate under Democratic control. Should Republicans win the chamber, they will have the power to block Biden’s future nominations, likely forcing him to choose “moderate” candidates in the hope of picking up Republican votes. Few Democrats have forgotten how Senate Republicans froze a supreme court vacancy in the last year of Obama’s presidency and denied Merrick Garland a hearing. David SmithInvestigations and committeesThe Biden administration and Democratic lawmakers are bracing for a legislative blockade and an onslaught of investigations. If Republicans take the House majority, one of the first orders of business will likely be terminating the work of the select committee investigating the January 6 insurrection. Members of the committee have anticipated this possibility as well, and they are racing to release a full report of their findings before the end of the year. Rodney Davis, the Republican ranking member of the House administration committee, has even indicated plans to investigate the work of the select committee, which has consistently attracted the ire of Donald Trump since its creation last year.Such an investigation would just be one of many investigations launched by House Republicans if they take control of the lower chamber. Republican leaders have suggested they are looking to investigate the overseas business dealings of Hunter Biden, the president’s son, and the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan last year, among other topics.House Republicans’ agenda may even include the impeachment of a sitting cabinet member. Multiple members of the Republican caucus have called for the removal of Alejandro Mayorkas, Biden’s homeland security secretary, over the White House’s handling of the US-Mexican border. “We will give Secretary Mayorkas a reserved parking spot, he will be testifying so much about this,” House minority whip Steve Scalise said in September.Joan E GreveAbortionThe supreme court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade in June catapulted the issue of abortion to the front and center of several key midterm contests. The outcomes of governor’s races in particular could have direct consequences on the future of abortion access, which will now be decided by the states.Democrats have made abortion a core part of their campaign message amid signs that fury over the ruling – and over Republican-led efforts to ban abortion in the states – was fueling a political backlash. In several states, the number of women registering to vote surged and in conservative Kansas, voters overwhelmingly rejected an attempt to undermine abortion protections.Abortion protections are on the ballot in four states, while competitive contests for state legislature and the governor’s mansion could be critical to determining access in the state. At the federal level, Biden has vowed that his first legislative act of the new Congress would be to codify abortion rights, if Americans deliver Democrats even bigger majorities this November. By contrast, some Republicans have said they would push for a national ban on abortion if their party retakes control of Congress in November. Lauren GambinoTopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsDemocratsRepublicansexplainersReuse this content More

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      How Republicans’ racist attack ads are chipping away at Democrat’s lead in Wisconsin

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      How Republicans’ racist attack ads are chipping away at Democrat’s lead in Wisconsin Ron Johnson’s campaign of ‘race and fear’ is affecting Senate race that Mandela Barnes once looked to have in the bagAfter months of flinging mud, Senator Ron Johnson was finally obliged to admit that his Democratic opponent in the upper midwestern state of Wisconsin had never actually made a call to “defund the police”.But that did not stop the Trumpist senator’s re-election drive from continuing to broadcast racially charged advertisements falsely claiming that Mandela Barnes, the lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, “rationalized violence” against the police and tying him to the most controversial positions of Black Lives Matter.Barnes and his supporters dismiss the ads as evidence of Johnson’s desperation. But the campaign of “race and fear” has had an impact as an election that Barnes once looked to have in the bag is now too close to call.Across the country, Republican strategists have ratcheted up attacks on Democrats over fears of crime as the midterm elections approach with predictable results in many races. But Barnes, who is running to become Wisconsin’s first Black senator and is named after South Africa’s iconic former president, is on the end of a particularly pointed campaign that has eaten into a once substantial lead in the final weeks of a race that could decide control of the US Senate.“There’s definitely a racial overtone,” said Charles Franklin, director of the respected Marquette law school polling of Wisconsin voters.“The massive amount of negative advertising attacking Barnes on crime more than anything else is surely the explanation for why he has seen the gap close since August, or a big part of it.”Johnson won the seat, once held by the notorious communist baiter Jospeh McCarthy, in the 2010 backlash against Barack Obama’s presidency, unseating a three-term Democrat. He was re-elected in 2016 by a margin of just 3.4 points.Earlier this year, the Cook Political Report rated Johnson one of the most vulnerable incumbent senators in part because of association with attempts to submit a slate of fake electors to overturn Biden’s election victory, his promotion of conspiracy theories around the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol, and for his support of a total ban on abortions. It now says the seat is a toss-up.Barnes has seen a seven-point lead evaporate in recent weeks amid a barrage of negative advertising largely funded by two billionaires who the Democrat’s campaign say are rewarding Johnson for his support of tax cuts that benefited them by hundreds of millions of dollars.Diane Hendricks, a rightwing billionaire businesswoman and Wisconsin native closely tied to Donald Trump, and Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, founders of the Wisconsin-based Uline packaging company who have a long history of funding far-right candidates, are the main donors to a political action committee, Wisconsin Truth, which until recently was heavily outspending the Barnes campaign.Franklin said his most recent poll showed the two candidates both at 47% support among registered voters because significant numbers of independents, who were neutral on Barnes in August, turned against him amid the barrage of attacks ads over crime.“When we look across our surveys, it looks like that wave of advertising from August to September raised the salience of the issue, especially with independents,” he said.Wisconsin Truth has portrayed Barnes as supporting radical reform of the police and the scrapping of the US immigration agency because he is supported by groups that back those positions even though he has repeatedly said he does not. But key to the ads are their racial overtones.One of them shows a picture of Barnes with three members of “the Squad” of congressional progressives, all women of color – Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib. The text says: “Mandela Barnes, different”. The word different then changes to “dangerous”.Criticism has also been made of another ad, paid for by Wisconsin Truth, that includes footage of “actual crime scenes”. In one scene, a person apparently committing a crime is circled in red at the same time as Barnes’s name appears on the screen, seeming to link the two.Some of the advertising has darkened Barnes’s skin in what would appear to be an attempt to make him appear menacing to some white voters.A Wisconsin state representative, Evan Goyke, told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that the ads were “despicable” and accused Johnson and his allies of using “race and fear as their main election tactics”.Johnson has pressed similar claims in televised debates including asserting that Barnes “has a record of wanting to defund the police” because he proposed spending some of the police budget on social workers to assist frontline officers in dealing with some crisis situations, such as those involving the mentally ill and homeless. The Republican senator was later forced to acknowledged that Barnes hadn’t said he wanted to “defund” the police but still accused him of using “code words”.Barnes said it was a bit rich for Johnson to claim to defend the police when he backed Trump supporters who stormed the Capitol last year.“I won’t be lectured about crime from somebody who supported a violent insurrection that left 140 officers injured,” he said.On the campaign trail, Barnes told the Guardian he was not surprised by Johnson’s claims.“We knew they will run bad-faith attacks because that’s all they have. Senator Johnson doesn’t have a record to defend so all he can do is just try to lie and distract and make up things about me. And that’s the worst part about this,” he said.Barnes’s campaign included a stop at the King Solomon Missionary Baptist church in Milwaukee where the pastor, the Rev Charles Watkins, gave a pointed sermon about how voters’ perceptions of his city’s Black neighborhoods were shaped by intense coverage of crime while ignoring more positive aspects of the community – a balance he said was not replicated in coverage of white neighborhoods.Asked by the Guardian if Johnson’s supporters were running a racist campaign, Watkins paused.“I don’t want to say that. I don’t want to, but some of the things that the other candidate has said have been racist. Just like when he said during the insurrection on January 6 that he would have been more fearful if it had been Black Lives Matter. For him to say that, yes, that’s racist,” he said.Watkins said he thought the negative campaign was having an impact.“If you say it long enough and loud enough, people will believe it,” he said. “It’s fear tactics. Not one time did Mandela Barnes ever come out and say ‘defund the police’. Not one time. That’s one of the reasons why he’s behind in the polls. People look at that because they’re not really looking at the person.”Matt Mareno, the chair of Waukesha county Democrats just west of Milwaukee, said he sees that on the doorstep. He said that campaigners for Barnes were forced to spend time explaining that the claims made about him are false, making it harder to promote his policies to protect social programs and union rights, revive manufacturing in the state, and help family farms.“We found when we’re talking to voters on the doorstep the only things they know about Mandela are the things they hear on TV. So they assume he is pro-crime, whatever that means, and that he wants to let all criminals out and cause mayhem in the streets. So for us it’s been a lot of having to introduce Mandela Barnes to a lot of these people, and explain complex policies when a lot of the world operates on bumper stickers,” said Mareno.“They are blowing all the dog whistles they can because in a state like Wisconsin if you blow those dog whistles and get maybe the half percent of people who will be motivated to vote by race, that could be the difference between winning and losing. Half of our statewide elections are decided by less than one per cent.”Johnson has responded to the charges of a bigoted campaign by accusing Democrats of “playing the race card”.“That’s what leftists do,” he told Milwaukee talk radio.Still, Franklin said that while Barnes had lost ground, and Johnson was slightly ahead among likely voters, the Democrat remains competitive in a state where elections frequently come down to the wire. Biden took Wisconsin from Trump in 2020 by just 20,000 votes – less than 1% of the ballot.The Barnes campaign says that its funding has recently overtaken his rival and increased spending on campaign ads attacking Johnson for opposing abortion rights, including support for a federal ban that makes no exceptions for rape, incest or the life of the mother. Johnson told women that if they do not like Wisconsin’s restrictions on abortion then they should move to another state.Franklin said polling shows that 81% of Democrats placed abortion rights among their most important voting issues after the supreme court struck down Roe v Wade, and that it has “clearly driven up enthusiasm for voting among Democrats” which will help Barnes.Among them is Cara Adams, a store owner in Stevens Point in central Wisconsin. After Barnes stopped by her shop of locally made goods during a campaign tour, she said she wasn’t impressed by politicians but she was inclined to vote for him in large part because of abortion rights.“I don’t affiliate with a specific party because politics is just gross. There’s just horrible political campaigns on both sides. Horrible, nasty things on TV,” she said.“But Barnes is a lot more progressive in his thinking. I would be very uncomfortable if Ron Johnson came into my store today. His views upon women make me extremely uncomfortable, just knowing that any person feels like a woman has any rights less than a man is ridiculous.”Adams said that she sees anecdotal evidence in her area that the supreme court ruling on abortion is stirring many women to vote who might not have taken an interest in the midterms.That turnout is likely to prove key to Barnes if he is to overcome the barrage of negative advertising.But Watkins, who works with Souls to the Polls to mobilise Black voters, said that even within Milwaukee’s African American community, in the face of a racist election campaign and amid fears that voting rights are likely to be further eroded in one of the most rigged electoral systems in the country, it can be a struggle to persuade people to vote.“’We’re trying to get our community to understand that if your vote didn’t count, why are they trying so hard to take away your vote? They’re making it harder for absentee votes. They’re making it hard to register to vote. So something’s going on. What we are trying to do is wake up the community, to wake up the city. Let them know, hey, it do matter. Your vote do matter,” he said.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022WisconsinUS politicsDemocratsRepublicansfeaturesReuse this content More

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      Chuck Schumer insists Democrats can hold or expand Senate majority – as it happened

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      The Senate’s Democratic leader Chuck Schumer believes the party can keep or even expand its majority in Congress’s upper chamber in Tuesday’s midterm elections, despite polls showing its candidates losing their leads in crucial races.“I believe Democrats will hold the Senate and maybe even pick up seats,” Schumer said in an interview with the Associated Press published today, while acknowledging that the race is “tight.”Over the summer, Democrats appeared to have a clear path to preserving their majority in the Senate as legislative victories and the shock over the supreme court’s decision to overturn abortion rights rallied their supporters. But polls have indicated that enthusiasm ebbed as the 8 November election grows closer, and earlier this week, a survey from the New York Times and Siena College found Democrats have only slight advantages in several crucial races.Schumer told the AP he “doesn’t want to give the illusion that these are all slam dunks,” but said voters “are seeing how extreme these Republican candidates are and they don’t like it. And second, they’re seeing the Democrats are talking to them on issues they care about, and that we’ve accomplished a great deal on things.”We are five days away from the 8 November midterm elections, and last night Joe Biden gave a primetime speech in which he sought to remind Americans that many Republican candidates hold views that could threaten the country’s democracy. Meanwhile, the top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer struck an optimistic note about his party’s chances of keeping hold of the chamber. We may soon find out if he’s right.Here’s a look at what else happened today:
      Republicans rolled their eyes at Biden’s speech, with the Senate’s GOP leader calling it a distraction from crime and inflation. He was echoed by the party’s candidate for governor in Michigan.
      A noted domestic violence researcher agreed with Biden’s warnings about democracy, saying that research indicates only a minority of Americans support violence in politics – though that still may be as many as 13 mn people.
      A top aide to Donald Trump said she has advised the former president to announce his 2024 run for office after the midterms. Some Democrats hoped Trump’s return to the presidential campaign trail before the election would rally their voters.
      The Inflation Reduction Act was a major legislative accomplishment for Biden, but many people aren’t even aware it passed, a progressive polling firm found.
      Across the country, vest-wearing canvassers are knocking on doors in neighborhoods and asking people about their voting history and who they live with, Reuters reports.The canvassers aren’t affiliated with any government, but rather with groups aligned with Donald Trump that are trying to use information gathered from their visits to prove voter fraud, according to Reuters’ investigation. Officials worry the groups are impersonating government employees and intimidating voters. In Michigan, Reuters reports that one organization already has plans to use alleged irregularities they found to challenge voters in the swing state’s elections on Tuesday.Here’s more from the report:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}The activists often seem more interested in undermining confidence in U.S. democracy than trying to improve it, said Arizona’s Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, a Republican. “They’re hoping that we fail. They’re hoping that mistakes occur and they’re even trying to do things to disrupt the system,” he said.
      In Shasta County, a rugged, mountainous region of more than 180,000 people where pro-Trump Republicans dominate the local government, clerk Cathy Darling Allen said she noticed problems in the middle of September when three residents complained about canvassers on Facebook.
      When Allen contacted the voters, they all asked whether the county had sent the canvassers. Allen replied that the visitors had nothing to do with her office.
      A week later, a fourth resident called police when canvassers showed up at his door and demanded voting information that made him suspicious, according to a report by the Redding Police Department.
      In a public statement issued Sept. 26, Allen warned that canvassers’ actions amounted to intimidation and violations of election laws. “I was very concerned that it would have a chilling effect on people’s willingness to be registered to vote, and that’s not OK,” she said in an interview.
      Reuters identified at least 23 state-wide or local efforts where canvassers may have crossed the line into intimidation, according to election officials and voting rights lawyers. Some carried weapons, wore badges, asked people who they’d voted for or demanded personal information, election officials said.
      The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, a coalition of more than 200 civil rights groups, said it has received more such reports than in previous elections. “These tactics are very concerning,” said YT Bell, an election adviser for the coalition.What’s deciding your vote in next week’s midterm election? The Guardian would like to hear from voters across the United States about the issues that are swaying their choices for House representative, Senator or governor when they head to the polls Tuesday. Details of how to reach us are at the link below:US voters: what issues are deciding your vote next week?Read moreThe Inflation Reduction Act is one of Joe Biden’s biggest legislative achievements, and was passed only after months of stop-and-start negotiations that at times looked like they would lead to nothing.But for all the drama that preceded its August signing, progressive think tank Data for Progress finds comparatively few Americans are aware of its passage:Despite the historic achievement in passing the Inflation Reduction Act, a new poll from @DataProgress finds likely voters are relatively unaware of its provisions — or its status.Just 39% of voters know the Inflation Reduction Act is signed law.https://t.co/BYDHXVZt9x— Sean McElwee (@SeanMcElwee) November 3, 2022
      Look closely at the numbers and many voters express ignorance about what it would do. The most known aspect of the law is that it allows Medicare to negotiate lower prescription drug prices with pharmaceutical companies, which 44% of those surveyed are aware of. But only about a third of those surveyed know it pays for the hiring of more agents at the Internal Revenue Service, raised the minimum tax on large corporations, or offers credits for clean energy production.“With the economy top of mind for voters as they prepare to cast their ballots in the midterm elections, it is clear that Democratic messaging on the key economic provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act is failing to reach voters,” Data for Progress concludes. “As Democrats work to keep their majority in Congress, it’s crucial that voters are aware of what Democrats have accomplished in the past two years.”As Andrew Lawrence writes, if a Republican wins the race for Oregon governor, it will be largely thanks to one man: a co-founder of the sportswear giant Nike.Phil Knight is the 84-year-old co-founder and chair emeritus of Nike, the house that Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods built.In the race to govern Oregon, a bastion of west coast liberalism, Knight has thrown full support behind the Republican Christine Drazan, an anti-abortion, tough-on-crime former lobbyist pushing “election integrity”. In a rare interview with the New York Times, Knight made his motive clear: Oregon’s next governor can be anyone but the Democratic nominee, Tina Kotek.Knight’s lavish support of the right would seem to betray Nike’s pursuit of social equality and environmental protection. After all, this is the “Just Do It” brand that champions Serena Williams, that kneels with Colin Kaepernick, that featured Argentina’s first trans female soccer player in a recent ad.Over the years, the company has pledged millions to organizations dedicated to leveling the playing field in all spheres of life. But it has also come under fire for crafting a progressive PR image as cover while manufacturing products in Asian sweatshops with forced labor practices …Full report:Why is Nike founder Phil Knight so desperate to prevent a Democratic win in Oregon?Read moreThe Senate’s Democratic leader Chuck Schumer believes the party can keep or even expand its majority in Congress’s upper chamber in Tuesday’s midterm elections, despite polls showing its candidates losing their leads in crucial races.“I believe Democrats will hold the Senate and maybe even pick up seats,” Schumer said in an interview with the Associated Press published today, while acknowledging that the race is “tight.”Over the summer, Democrats appeared to have a clear path to preserving their majority in the Senate as legislative victories and the shock over the supreme court’s decision to overturn abortion rights rallied their supporters. But polls have indicated that enthusiasm ebbed as the 8 November election grows closer, and earlier this week, a survey from the New York Times and Siena College found Democrats have only slight advantages in several crucial races.Schumer told the AP he “doesn’t want to give the illusion that these are all slam dunks,” but said voters “are seeing how extreme these Republican candidates are and they don’t like it. And second, they’re seeing the Democrats are talking to them on issues they care about, and that we’ve accomplished a great deal on things.”As the midterm elections loom in the US and Republican hopes of retaking Congress rise, it appears it is now a matter of when, not if, Donald Trump will announce his third White House run. Martin Pengelly reports…Donald Trump has trailed another White House campaign ever since his 2020 defeat by Joe Biden, a contest Trump refused to concede, pursuing the lie about electoral fraud which fueled the deadly attack on Congress and his second impeachment.In Texas last month, Trump said: “In order to make our country successful, safe and glorious again, I will probably have to do it again.”Now, a flurry of reports say Trump will move swiftly after the midterms, seeking to capitalise on likely Republican wins fueled by focusing on economic anxieties and law and order.“I’m like 95% he’s going to run,” Reince Priebus, the former Republican chairman who became Trump’s first White House chief of staff, told the Associated Press this week.“The real question is are other big challengers going to run? If President Trump runs, he will be very difficult for any Republican to defeat.”Full story:Trump’s third run for the White House appears a matter of when not ifRead moreMore from Hillary Clinton’s interview with CNN earlier, in which she discussed Republican midterms messaging that seems set for success next Tuesday.The former first lady, senator, secretary of state and Democratic presidential nominee focused on “this emphasis on crime that we’ve seen in every ad that I run across from the Republicans.“I find it ironic and frankly disturbing that when Paul Pelosi is attacked by an intruder in his own home with a hammer, the Republicans go silent about that crime.“They’re not concerned about voter safety, they just want to keep voters scared because they feel that if voters are scared, if they’re responding to negative messages, they’ll have a better chance and that’s really regrettable. Unfortunately, sometimes it works, and we can’t let people just hear that and believe it.”Pelosi, the 82-year-old husband of the Democratic House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, was attacked in San Francisco last week. Clinton referred to comments about the attack by Republicans including Kari Lake, the Trump-aligned candidate for governor in Arizona.“It was a horrifying incident,” Clinton said, “but sadly a real indicator of where we are in our country right now that you would have people on the Republican ticket, like the woman running in Arizona, laughing about an attack on anyone, let alone an 82-year-old man whose wife happens to be the second-in-line to the presidency.“I am rarely shocked anymore, but the reaction I’ve seen from a number of Republicans, both in person and online making fun of that attack, somehow trying to turn it into a joke, the same party that wants us to be worried about crime. The hypocrisy is incredibly obvious.”Clinton also discussed threats to democracy around the world – and linked them to what she said was the Republican threat at home.She said: “This is a time of great ferment, and it is a time when the United States should be standing strongly on behalf of our values of democracy and freedom, of opportunity and equality, instead of being engaged in this culture war driven by the political opportunism of people on the Republican side of the ledger.“… The best thing we can do to lead the world in this struggle between democracy and autocracy is to get our own house in order and I hope that we’ll do that starting Tuesday.”Hillary Clinton has been talking about the economy – which is top of many people’s minds as the midterm elections roar towards us and voting is underway.She acknowledged in talking to CNN earlier today that the economy was of course something that needed to be talked about this election cycle. Democrats’ prospects are blighted by record inflation and a cost of living crunch and Clinton wants them to talk up their record and put current economic challenges into the wider context.“What I wish we could convey more effectively, if you look at what has been accomplished in the first two years of the Biden presidency, with Congress working hand in hand, there has been an enormous amount of commitment of new building, new infrastructure, new investments in manufacturing, new ways to lower healthcare costs,” she said.The former first lady and secretary of state added: “In fact the work that’s been done by the Democrats in helping the economy and helping people deal with what is global inflation, not just American inflation, is truly impressive, and we’ve got to get that message across more effectively.”.@HillaryClinton: “The work that is being done by the Democrats in helping the economy and helping people deal with what is global inflation, not just American inflation, is truly impressive, and we’ve got to get that message across more effectively.” pic.twitter.com/rZQx1ItZ6I— The Hill (@thehill) November 3, 2022
      Tonight, Clinton is one of the headliners at a Get Out The Vote event in New York City to bolster New York state’s Democratic governor Kathy Hochul, who is not home and dry against her Republican challenger Lee Zeldin.State attorney general Letitia James will be there as well as other grandees and the top headliner will be US vice president Kamala Harris.The White House has announced that US representatives today visited US basketball player Brittney Griner in Russia, where she has been imprisoned since the early days of Russia’s war on Ukraine, Reuters reports.The two-time Olympic gold medallist was arrested on 17 February at a Moscow airport with vape cartridges containing cannabis oil, which is banned in Russia.She was sentenced on 4 August to nine years in a penal colony. Last month her appeal against that harsh sentence failed and there are fears Griner could be moved to one of Russia’s far-flung prison colonies within weeks.Although at that time, Griner’s legal team said she was not “expecting any miracles” from the appeals process, the decision nonetheless would be a blow to the sports star, who pleaded guilty to the drug charges in July and has thrown herself several times on the mercy of the Russian court only to be given an unusually harsh sentence, even for Russia.“We are told she is doing as well as can be expected under the circumstances,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters today aboard Air Force One as she accompanied US president Joe Biden on an election campaign trip to New Mexico, followed by California.Earlier in October, Brittney Griner’s wife, Cherelle Griner told CBS Mornings that Brittney, who was on her way to play in Russia during the WNBA offseason when she was arrested, is afraid of being abandoned by the United States.“She’s very afraid about being left and forgotten in Russia,” Cherelle Griner said.She said Brittney told her in a phone call that she felt “like my life just doesn’t matter.”Brittney Griner’s story always transcended sport. She’s a real American trailblazerRead moreIt’s clear that the spike in voter support Democrats experienced over the summer has worn off in the final weeks before the midterms, raising the possibility of a disastrous Tuesday for the party as it tries to defend its slim hold on both chambers of Congress.Longtime Democratic strategist Stanley B. Greenberg has published an explanation of one reason why Democrats failed to keep their momentum: their own voters lost faith in their ability to tackle crime.Writing in The American Prospect, Greenberg argues that Republicans effectively used increasing fears of violence nationwide to tar Democrats as soft on the issue, and the strategy was so potent even some racial groups that traditionally vote for Joe Biden’s allies saw the GOP as better able to tackle the problem. Greenberg based his conclusions on a polling effort he oversaw:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}New York City has seen citywide shooting incidents increase by 13 percent compared to July 2021, and the number of murders increased for the month by 34 percent compared to this time last year. Philadelphia and Chicago experienced prominent shoot-outs on the subway, and in Philadelphia overall shootings have increased by 3 percent and violent crimes are up 7 percent.
      As a result, crime was a top-tier issue in the midterm election, and that included Blacks, who ranked it almost as high as the cost of living in poll after poll. For Hispanics and Asian Americans, crime came just below the cost of living as a priority. And Republicans continued to remind voters that Democrats continued to support “defunding the police,” even by linking candidates to organizations they took money from, like Planned Parenthood, which back in 2020 called for defunding.
      The Democrats had so little credibility on crime that any message I tested this year against the Republicans ended up losing us votes, even messages that voters previously liked.The only message that worked with voters was one in which Democrats promised to greatly expand police forces and publicly called out members seen as not doing enough to fight crime, Greenberg writes. He adds that it’s a far cry from much of the party’s messaging since the racial justice protests that began in the summer of 2020, after which many Democrats focused more on police abuses than on communities’ fears of violence:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}In a mid-October poll, I was able to test a crime message that got heard. It got heard because it dramatized more police, said Democrats heard our communities on violent crime, and also called out the small minority of Democrats who failed to address violent crime, and said, “Democrats in Congress are mainstream” and support our “first responders.”
      To be honest, I didn’t want to open up this debate during the campaign when Democrats could do little to address it. That is why I am writing this article now, being published right before the election.
      Our effective crime message began with respect for police, but this time, the Democrat proposes to add 100,000 more police. That is a pretty dramatic offer that says, my crime plan begins with many more police. The message includes the same urgent reforms, but also adds, “those very communities want us to get behind law enforcement” and “fight violent crime as a top priority.”
      This crime message defeats by 11 points a Republican crime message that hits Democrats for defunding the police, being with Biden who is soft on crime, and presiding over Democratic cities with record homicide rates. Democrats are in so much trouble on crime, yet this message wins dramatically in the base and competes with working-class targets. We are five days away from the 8 November midterm elections, and Joe Biden last night gave a primetime speech in which he sought to remind Americans that many Republicans on ballots this year hold views that could threaten the country’s democracy. We’ll soon find out if voters believed him.Here’s a look at what has happened today so far:
      Republicans rolled their eyes at Biden’s speech, with the Senate’s GOP leader calling it a distraction from crime and inflation, which was echoed by the party’s candidate for governor in Michigan.
      A noted domestic violence researcher agreed with Biden’s warnings about democracy, saying that research indicates only a minority of Americans support violence in politics – though that still may be as many as 13 mn people.
      A top aide to Donald Trump said she has advised the former president to announce his 2024 run for office after the midterms. Some Democrats hoped Trump’s return to the presidential campaign trail before the vote would be positive for democratic turnout.
      One of Donald Trump’s top advisors Kellyanne Conway held forth with reporters today about what she advised the former president when it comes to announcing his next run for office, Semafor reports.Trump is widely expected to run for president again in 2024, but the bigger question is when he will announce. Some Democrats hoped he would so before the midterms, so they can steer voters’ attention back to the divisive former leader.Here’s what Conway, one of his best known aides, told reporters:Kellyanne Conway, at a roundtable with reporters, says she advised Trump not to announce before the midterms “if he does at all.” She then said it’ll happen soon and mentioned Tiffany Trump’s wedding as his estate.— Kadia Goba (@kadiagoba) November 3, 2022
      “I personally think he should do what he wants to do and I understand that he wants to make right all the issues that he made right while he was president.” — Conway when asked if she personally thinks Trump should run in 2024.— Kadia Goba (@kadiagoba) November 3, 2022
      Conway’s projection on Trump’s biggest threat. to the presidency: a spoiler. She did not name a specific potential Republican candidate.— Kadia Goba (@kadiagoba) November 3, 2022
      While Joe Biden argued democracy is on the ballot on Tuesday, Amy Westervelt reports that outcome could also have a major impact on climate change:Climate is on the ballot in a big way this November, despite the fact that it is not front and center in any of the campaigns. Even when it comes to voter turnout, the mood of climate voters has been a topic of conversation among political consultants for months.“Several months ago I was very concerned about the apathy we were seeing in young climate voters because of Democrats’ failure to even talk about the successes they have had,” Rania Batrice, political strategist and founder of Batrice & Associates, says. “But I do feel like there’s been a little bit of a renewed sense of urgency. In Georgia, for example, early voting just started and it’s already breaking all kinds of records.”Batrice says the fallout from the supreme court decision in Dobbs, which overturned the Roe v Wade precedent on abortion, is a big part of that urgency, but that the Biden administration’s increased action on climate this year plays a role too.For the campaigns she’s working on this midterm cycle – Beto O’Rourke for governor of Texas, John Fetterman for Senate in Pennsylvania, Charles Booker for Senate in Kentucky and Mandela Barnes for Senate in Wisconsin – Batrice says her advice on climate is simple: “Meet people where they’re at, and talk about climate in ways that relate to people’s daily lives.”‘A renewed sense of urgency’: climate on the ballot in US midterm electionsRead more More

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      Trump’s third run for the White House appears a matter of when not if

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      AnalysisTrump’s third run for the White House appears a matter of when not ifMartin Pengelly in New YorkFlurry of reports suggests former president will move swiftly after midterms to announce candidacy – but who will challenge him? As the midterm elections loom in the US and Republican hopes of retaking Congress rise, it appears it is now a matter of when, not if, Donald Trump will announce his third White House run.‘A really dangerous candidate’: Kari Lake, the new face of Maga RepublicanismRead moreThe former president has trailed another campaign ever since his 2020 defeat by Joe Biden, a contest Trump refused to concede, pursuing the lie about electoral fraud which fueled the deadly attack on Congress and his second impeachment.In Texas last month, Trump said: “In order to make our country successful, safe and glorious again, I will probably have to do it again.”Now, a flurry of reports say Trump will move swiftly after the midterms, seeking to capitalise on likely Republican wins fueled by focusing on economic anxieties and law and order.“I’m like 95% he’s going to run,” Reince Priebus, the former Republican chairman who became Trump’s first White House chief of staff, told the Associated Press this week.“The real question is are other big challengers going to run? If President Trump runs, he will be very difficult for any Republican to defeat.”On Wednesday, Vanity Fair reported that Ron DeSantis, Trump’s nearest challenger in polls regarding 2024, and who as governor of Florida has deployed Trumpist policies and theatrics, may keep his powder dry.One Republican “briefed on donor conversations” was quoted as saying: “He’s led them to believe he will not run if Trump does.” Another said that at 44, DeSantis “can walk into the presidency in 2028 without pissing off Trump or Florida”.DeSantis does seem likely to beat his Democratic challenger, Charlie Crist. Trump seems equally likely to run for president again, particularly as doing so might help him avoid or complicate multiple investigations.Trump is in legal jeopardy over attempted election subversion, in Georgia as well as around January 6; his retention of classified White House records; his business affairs, subject to civil and criminal lawsuits; and a defamation suit from a writer who says he raped her.He denies wrongdoing. But earlier this week, the Hill quoted a “veteran” Republican aide as saying: “A couple of weeks after the election, I assume that [the US attorney general, Merrick] Garland will indict Trump.”A second aide said an indictment “could actually end up helping [Trump] politically”. Trump has long presented investigations as political witch-hunts, a reliable way of whipping up his base.‘The sorts of things campaigns do’Not everyone thinks Trump will run. Michael Cohen, his former lawyer who went to prison after admitting offences including lying to Congress, fraud and campaign finance violations related to paying off women who claimed affairs with Trump, thinks Trump won’t risk a second defeat.Speaking to the Daily Beast, Cohen said: “One of the things he knows is that his popularity, even among Republicans, has diminished … people are sick and tired of the chaos he creates every single day. And I think they’re getting sick and tired of the way that the Trump 2.0-ers are doing the exact same thing.“He cannot afford, emotionally, to be a two-time loser.”Polls show Trump is likely to win the Republican nomination but have also shown most Americans do not want him to do so. One survey, by NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ, found that 57% said Trump should not run again – though among Republicans, the total fell to 26%.Cohen also said Trump may have financial reasons not to run.“If you read the fine print, he has sole discretion over 90% of all of the money that his supporters are currently giving him, that makes it into a 90% slush fund. So I bet if you look to see how he paid to fix his airplane, which was sitting on the tarmac for a long time, I guarantee it’s coming from that slush fund.”The poll that showed most voters do not want Trump to run also showed that more than 60% of Americans and 30% of Democrats said Biden should not run either. Nonetheless, the Washington Post this week reported that the president, who will soon turn 80, is “quietly” preparing to do so. A rematch of 2020 seems likely – and Trump, a relatively sprightly 76, has reportedly started recruiting.According to the news site Puck, “aides are doing the sorts of things that campaigns do in their early stages, like having those hard conversations about what worked in 2016 and did not in 2020, about hierarchy and titles, and engaging vendors”.Multiple reports have linked Chris LaCivita to the nascent campaign. The longtime Republican operative was behind the group Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, which in 2004 took a hammer to John Kerry’s decorated service in Vietnam, holing the Democrat below the waterline in a campaign against a president, George W Bush, who memorably avoided that war.The homestretchMost observers think Trump is holding back his announcement to avoid distracting from key midterm races. Such races include Senate contests in Ohio and Pennsylvania where the Trump-endorsed Republicans, JD Vance and Mehmet Oz, are locked in tight fights that could decide control of the chamber.Herschel Walker hits back at Barack Obama: ‘Put my resumé against his’Read moreBut Trump is nothing if not a disruptor and the AP reported this week that an announcement could yet come at a rally in the midterms homestretch.The former president is due to appear in Sioux City, Iowa, on Thursday. Iowa will kick off the Republican primary in 2024.On Saturday, three days before election day, he is due to appear in Pennsylvania to support Oz and Doug Mastriano, the extremist, election-denying candidate for governor. On Sunday, he will rally in Florida. On Monday, the last day of the campaign, Trump will speak in Dayton, Ohio.A more personal motive may be in play. Tiffany Trump, the former president’s daughter with his second wife, Marla Maples, will marry Michael Boulos at Trump’s Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago, on 12 November.Puck reported that Trump was “factoring his daughter’s upcoming nuptials into his thinking about when he will announce his candidacy”.TopicsDonald TrumpUS politicsDemocratsRepublicansUS elections 2024analysisReuse this content More

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      Pittsburgh Jews decry pro-Israel group’s support for Republican extremists

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      Pittsburgh Jews decry pro-Israel group’s support for Republican extremistsAipac is spending millions to oppose Democrat who would be Pennsylvania’s first Black female member of Congress More than 240 Jewish American voters in Pittsburgh have signed a letter denouncing the US’s largest pro-Israel group for backing extremist Republican election candidates while spending millions of dollars to oppose a Democrat who would be Pennsylvania’s first Black female member of Congress.US progressives show strength in primaries and predict more wins aheadRead moreThe letter condemned the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac) for its attempts to defeat Summer Lee, a candidate for the district that includes Pittsburgh, after failing to block her during the Democratic primaries earlier this year because of her criticisms of Israel’s oppression of the Palestinians.The signatories said they were “outraged that at this critical moment in American history, Aipac has chosen to cast Democrats like Lee as extremists” while endorsing more than 100 Republican candidates who voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election.The letter suggested that Aipac does not represent the views of the majority of American Jews and is working against their interests by also endorsing Republicans who promote white supremacy, a particularly sensitive issue in a city where 11 worshippers at the Tree of Life synagogues were murdered in an antisemitic attack four years ago.“We also condemn Aipac endorsement of lawmakers who have promoted the antisemitic ‘Great Replacement’ conspiracy theory that helped inspire the murder of eleven members of the three synagogues housed at Tree of Life,” the letter said.“Clearly, their definition of ‘extreme’ is completely opposite to that held by the majority of American Jews – who worry about the stark rise in antisemitism and white nationalism in our state and in our country.”It is the first time Aipac has funded support for a Republican contender for Congress over a Democrat in a general election, marking a further shift away from its once more bipartisan approach.Aipac’s campaign funding arm, the United Democracy Project (UDP), is paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for television advertising and mailings against Lee. The group is backing Mike Doyle, who supports a federal ban on abortion and has described himself as very conservative.The UDP has posted a leaflet to voters calling Lee “too extreme” because of her positions on police, prison and immigration reform. The leaflet makes no mention of her criticisms of Israeli government policies which do not appear to be an election issue for most voters, although Aipac has previously said that its “sole factor for supporting Democratic and Republican candidates is their support for strengthening the US-Israel relationship”.Lee has drawn Aipac’s fire for her support of setting conditions for the US’s considerable aid to Israel, for accusing Israel of “atrocities” in Gaza, and for drawing parallels between Israeli actions against Palestinians and the shooting of young black men in the US.In a tweet earlier this week, Lee accused Aipac of funding extremists: “8 days from making history in PA–where Black women have never had federal representation–Aipac is funding my extreme GOP opponent. Since endorsing 100+ insurrectionists, Aipac has repeatedly shown us that democracy has never been as important as keeping progressives out.”Lee’s campaign has an additional cause for concern because her Republican opponent has the same first and last name as the outgoing Democratic member of Congress she is seeking to replace. In an apparent attempt to exploit potential confusion, Doyle’s website does not mention that he is a Republican.Aipac’s campaign against Lee is a rematch after it tried and failed to block her during the Democratic primaries earlier this year.The UDP spent more than $25m in the primaries to defeat candidates it deemed too critical, or insufficiently supportive, of Israel, including about $2.6m against Lee. Most of the candidates opposed by Aipac lost but Lee won her race by a slim margin.Much of the advertising in support of Aipac-backed candidates in the primaries played up Democratic party values such as equality. One of those opposed by the lobby group, Congressman Andy Levin who lost his primary and seat, on Wednesday tweeted that Aipac’s opposition to Lee revealed its professed support for liberal values to have been a sham.“If it wasn’t clear before, it certainly is now: AIPAC doesn’t care about our party’s values and priorities and it’s willing to empower extremists and undermine American democracy in order to defeat principled, progressive candidates,” he wrote.One of those who initiated the letter from members of Pittsburgh’s Jewish community was Ritchie Tabachnick who sits on the steering committee of a more moderate pro-Israel organisation, J Street. Tabachnick said the letter speaks for the majority of the city’s Jews because they are disturbed at Aipac “supporting some of the most extreme Republicans, people who make openly antisemitic remarks promote antisemitic conspiracy theories”.“It’s quite possible to be pro-Israel and antisemitic. They often go hand in hand. Aipac have chosen to prioritise the-pro Israel and ignore the antisemitic elements that go with it,” he said.Tabachnick said he believed Aipac was attempting to shut down widening criticism of Israel in the US, a task made more urgent by the expected return of Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister in coalition with far-right Jewish nationalists.“They are trying to control the narrative,” he said.But Tabachnik said he does not believe Aipac represents the views of most of the US’s Jewish community.“They are a loud, politically smart minority,” he said of the group.Aipac denies taking sides against the Democrats, saying that Lee’s views put her “outside of the Democratic mainstream”.Aipac has been approached for comment.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsPennsylvaniaAntisemitismIsraelDemocratsRepublicansnewsReuse this content More

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      ‘A really dangerous candidate’: Kari Lake, the new face of Maga Republicanism

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      ‘A really dangerous candidate’: Kari Lake, the new face of Maga RepublicanismThe former local news anchor – and former Democrat – is in a neck-and-neck race for governor in key swing state of Arizona Local news anchor Kari Lake resisted announcing that Joe Biden had won Arizona on election night two years ago. Now, she’s the telegenic new face of Maga Republicanism, poised to possibly become the state’s next governor.With early voting under way, polls show Lake in a dead heat with her opponent Katie Hobbs, Arizona’s Democratic secretary of state. The contest will test the strength of Donald Trump’s enduring influence on the Republican party and its supporters. And the entire enterprise of free elections in Arizona hangs in the balance.If Lake wins, her administration will oversee the 2024 elections in a key state that could help determine who wins the presidency. She could work with the likes of Mark Finchem, the far-right Oath Keeper who is running to become the state’s top election official. Already, she has said she will only accept the 2022 election results if “fair, honest and transparent” by her standards, declining to say whether she would accept defeat.‘The Trump playbook’: Republicans hint they will deny election resultsRead moreOn the night Lake won the Republican primary, she walked on stage carrying a sledgehammer and vowed to use it on electronic voting machines if elected governor. Instead of machines, Lake wants to use hand counts to tabulate elections – a method that is both more time-consuming and less accurate – while also insisting that results should be declared on election day. She has threatened to punish journalists for publishing content she disagrees with and imprison her opponent over fictional accusations of election rigging.“We’re dealing with a really dangerous candidate,” said Alejandra Gomez, co-director of the progressive advocacy group Lucha. “This election is incredibly consequential for the future of our democracy.”For 22 years, Lake was a familiar face on local TV – delivering the evening news at Fox 10 Phoenix in her smooth, deep voice. But on election night in 2020, she resisted calling the election for Biden, as her co-anchor awkwardly insisted that they follow protocol.In recent years Lake had joined the far-right social media platform Parler, and left an online trail of implicit endorsements of rightwing positions and conspiracy theories, much to the consternation of her station’s management. But it was her seemingly sudden and dramatic resignation that laid the foundations for her future political career.“I found myself reading news copy that I didn’t believe was fully truthful,” she said in March 2021, announcing that she was quitting. “I’ve decided the time is right to do something else.”A few months later, Lake said she was running for governor – almost immediately launching herself into rightwing stardom.In August, she defeated her GOP establishment-backed opponent to win the primary, and has since managed to gain the support of the outgoing Republican governor, Doug Ducey, and the state’s big Republican donors.Instead of network crews, it is now her husband, Jeff Halperin, who serves as her videographer. An independent producer, Halperin trails Lake and captures practically her every move, including combative exchanges with reporters to promote on social media.Lake’s platform in the race now contradicts her own from just a few years ago. In 2008, Lake was a registered Democrat and donated to the Democratic presidential campaigns of John Kerry and Barack Obama. In 2016, Lake proposed a plan to provide amnesty for undocumented immigrants. Today, she says she would declare an “invasion” at the southern border and evoked the white supremacist “great replacement” theory in describing immigrants.She once considered a local drag queen a friend and often attended performances, but now runs ads featuring an extremist homophobic pastor and attacks drag performers as a threat to children.On abortion, too, she has been inconsistent. The vast majority of Arizonans believe that abortion should be legal in at least some cases. Lake has called abortion “the ultimate sin” and has endorsed Arizona’s pre-statehood ban, though, in recent weeks has provided muddled messages about her stance. Lake also told a conference of young, conservative women that “God did not create us to be equal to men.”Lake’s campaign did not respond to multiple requests for an interview, and declined to respond to specific questions about her past politics. She told Time magazine that she previously supported Democrats in protest of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.Lake’s broad appeal has surprised both Democrats and moderate Republicans, especially given that many of her espoused views are more fundamentalist and rightwing than those held by most Arizona voters.Star powerFormer co-workers and friends have said they have been alarmed by her sudden conversion to Maga Republicanism while political pundits have speculated over whether this transformation is genuine or a shrewd career calculation.Regardless, it seems to be working. Her almost daily campaign events have become a sensation. In recent weeks, her intimate receptions with donors, and her rallies alongside fellow rightwing politicians from across the country have drawn supporters across demographic groups.US midterms 2022: the key candidates who threaten democracyRead moreOf all the far-right, Trump-endorsed Republicans on the ballot this election cycle, Lake might just have the most star power. Trump himself has told other candidates to be more like her. Republican insiders are already speculating that she could be Trump’s vice-presidential nominee in 2024, or run for president herself.“You can call me Trump in a dress any day,” she told cheering crowds at a recent rally, embracing comparisons between herself to the former president.Over the past few months, Hobbs’s quiet, at times stiff demeanor has been no match to Lake’s larger than life persona. At a town hall event hosted by the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, Lake reportedly positioned herself in the front row in an apparent stunt designed to rattle her opponent. She was eventually booted out of the room – but it seemed to work. Hobbs delivered an uneven performance, fumbling on softball questions.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022The fight for democracyArizonaRepublicansUS politicsDonald TrumpfeaturesReuse this content More

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      Republicans and Democrats spend big on ads for US midterms

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      Republicans and Democrats spend big on ads for US midtermsThe rival parties have outspent the 2020 presidential election on ads addressing abortion, crime and the economy As the US midterm elections loom, Republicans and Democrats have spent almost $10bn (£8.6bn) so far on ads. It’s a staggering figure, one that exceeds even the spending on the 2020 presidential election, and is almost triple the amount spent during the last midterms.Both parties – and their dark money backers – have splashed exorbitant amounts on TV, digital and print advertising, but their focus has been very different.For Democrats, abortion has been a key issue. The party has spent almost 20 times more than it did on abortion-related ads in the 2018 midterms, NPR reported. For Republicans, there have been different messages: that inflation, crime and taxes are out of control.The result has been a whirling atmosphere for the average American, where to turn on the TV is frequently to see the two parties, and their candidates, talking straight past one another about different things.AbortionAfter the conservative-dominated supreme court overturned the federal right to abortion in June, the issue of who should have control over women’s bodies has been front and center in many midterm races.Democrats have run more than 240 ads related to abortion rights, seeking to draw attention to the extreme positions of many Republican candidates. These largely centered the personal stories of women who have had abortions. One of the most powerful ads has run in South Carolina, where Joe Cunningham, a Democrat, is bidding to defeat Henry McMaster, the state’s Republican governor.In the ad, a woman named Fran explains that she was raped by two men when she was 12 years old. She later found out she was pregnant. Fran was able to have an abortion due to Roe v Wade, then recently decided, which legalised abortion in the US.“Roe versus Wade gave me the opportunity to become an educator, a mother and grandmother,” Fran says in the ad.“I did what was best for an 88-pound 12-year-old with no other options. I am a survivor of rape: my body is not yours, and it is not the state’s, it’s mine – yet our governor, Henry McMaster, wants to ban all abortions.”In Pennsylvania, Democrats have repeatedly targeted Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor running as a Republican for the US Senate, over his opposition to abortion, and an ad launched in mid-October features a Pennsylvania doctor describing how, pre-Roe v Wade, he was trained to treat the victims of “back-alley abortions”.“Too often, women died. I thought those days were long behind us. But not so, with Mehmet Oz,” the doctor says.One of the most harrowing ads of the entire election cycle comes from Eric Swalwell, a Democratic congressman for California.It shows a family eating dinner at home when two police officers to arrest the mother for “unlawful termination of a pregnancy”. When her partner attempts to intervene, the officers draw their guns on him, prompting screaming from the couple’s young children as the woman is handcuffed.“Elections have consequences,” a voiceover says. “Stop Republicans from criminalizing abortion everywhere.”Republicans, by contrast, have spent a fraction of the Democrats’ total on abortion ads. When candidates have addressed the issue, there has been a two-pronged approach: commercials have claimed, often spuriously, that their Democratic opponents are too extreme on abortion, and that the Republican candidates themselves are moderate.An ad that aired in Arizona in September, where Republican Blake Masters is hoping to win Mark Kelly’s Senate seat, managed to combine both.His ad, prosaically titled Arizona’s Mark Kelly Supports Painful Late Abortions, is full of mistruths and dishonest statements – a theme that has run through a majority of TV ads nationwide during the election campaign – claiming wrongly that Kelly supports abortion “right up to the due date”, and stating that Masters himself has sought “compromise” on the issue, despite the Republican having backed proposals that would ban all abortion, with no exceptions for rape or incest.Cost of livingThe big spending from Republicans has come on cost of living issues, including taxation and inflation, which reached a 40-year high of 9.1% in June and was at 8.2% in September. Across the country, Republican ads have sought to blame Joe Biden for the rise, frequently citing the $1.9tn coronavirus relief bill he signed in March 2021 as the cause.In September, ads on inflation accounted for 32% of all pro-GOP advertising, according to the Wesleyan Media Project, and in South Carolina, Republican Nancy Mace has tied the rise in price of everyday items not just to Joe Biden, but Nancy Pelosi, too, in a TV ad called Eggs.The ad shows Mace, a Republican congresswoman, pouring a glass of milk and cooking some bacon. The price of both has increased, she notes, adding: “I have had it with crazy inflation.”As the ad continues, Mace offers her plan to bring down the cost of living. It is an unusual plan.“Here’s what I’m going to do to Biden’s tax and spend agenda,” Mace says. She then cracks an egg and tips the contents into a frying pan.Other ads have been less avant-garde. An ad running against Raphael Warnock, Georgia’s Democratic senator, also features a clip of some bacon, along with a gas pump, as a breathless voiceover claims Georgia has been “hit hard by sky-high inflation”.Economists tend to agree that the American Rescue Plan did worsen inflation, Vox reported recently, but there are varying estimates as to how much, and others note that the plan did improve the economy.Democrats, meanwhile, haven’t done much in the way of pushing back. Wesleyan said inflation makes up only 8% of the party and its backers’ ads, and some Democratic leaders themselves agree that their message has been unconvincing.The party seems to be picking up the idea up, though, and has released ads on the economy in the last week, including one in New Hampshire which is undermined slightly by some rather unconvincing acting:The Party bossesIn a neat symmetry, both parties appear to be running from their leaders. According to the Washington Post, since early September Democrats have spent just $3m on ads centering Joe Biden, and Republicans have spent a mere $807,000 on ads highlighting Trump.Each party has, though, run plenty of ads focusing on their opposing party’s bosses. Republicans have blasted out ad after ad criticizing Biden, mostly over spending during the pandemic. Mindful of Biden’s low approval rating – which is currently averaging about 42% – Republicans have sought to tie Democratic candidates across the country to the president.That effort contributed to possibly the daftest ad of the entire campaign season: a singsong affair titled Hidin’ Biden that ran against Democratic congresswoman Sharice Davids in Kansas:Complete with lyrics like: “Sharice Davids, what’s she hidin’, Sharice Davids, she’s hidin’ Biden”, the piano-driven tune highlights that Davids has frequently voted for Biden-backed policies.It’s a similar but less jaunty story in New Hampshire, where voters are warned that Maggie Hassan, the incumbent US senator who is being challenged by Don Bolduc, a Republican and an election denier, “votes with Joe Biden over 96% of the time”:Republicans are clearly banking that Biden is unpopular enough to turn voters away from candidates who have even the loosest connection to the president. The GOP, as FiveThirtyEight pointed out, has replicated this format in Colorado, Michigan, Ohio and Arizona.CrimeCrime is the only issue where Republicans and Democrats come close to equal spending, according to the Washington Post. Republicans, frequently pushing a dystopian vision of cities ridden by murder and violent crime, have spent $49m on ads discussing crime since early September, compared to $36m invested by Democrats.The number of murders in major cities has fallen so far in 2022, but remains above the numbers in 2019, and a survey by the Major Cities Chiefs Association found that violent crime had risen 4.2% through the first six months of this year compared with 2021.That has given Republicans plenty of fodder to paint Democrats as soft on crime, in some cases, with racist overtones. “In states as disparate as Wisconsin and New Mexico, ads have labeled a Black candidate as ‘different’ and ‘dangerous’ and darkened a white man’s hands as they portrayed him as a criminal,” the New York Times wrote of the trend.Mandela Barnes is the subject of the Wisconsin ad, which ends with Barnes’s face positioned next to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar – all women of color – while the words “different” and “dangerous” flash across the screen:In Pennsylvania, Oz has run several ads on crime, claiming: “Today’s kids aren’t safe in our communities.” One spot, titled Crazy Dangerous Ideas, accuses Fetterman of “emptying our prisons”, which, according to the ad, would lead to “more hardened criminals on our streets”:Democrats, for their part, have run ads featuring themselves with police officers in an effort to rebut Republican claims that the left will defund police forces.Fetterman has created ads highlighting the work he did to bring down violent crime in Braddock, where he spent 13 years as mayor, with one featuring a local sheriff. Barnes, meanwhile, recruited a retired police sergeant for an ad in September:“I worked on the force for 30 years,” the retired officer, called Rick, says.“I’ve seen plenty of politicians. But Mandela, he’s the real deal. Mandela doesn’t want to defund the police. He’s very supportive of law enforcement.”With less than a week to go until America votes, it remains to be seen which of the party’s strategies will have the most impact.In the weeks following the supreme court’s Roe v Wade decision, abortion rights became one of the most important issues for voters – and with Democrats’ huge investment in abortion-related ads, the party has been counting on it turning out the vote.But as inflation and gas prices have risen, polls show that the economy has emerged as the key issue for voters.Over the past couple of weeks some Democrats, including Bernie Sanders, have urged their party to focus on plans for economic recovery, and late-running ads could reflect voters’ concerns. As the election looms, Democratic supporters will be hoping it’s not a case of too little too late.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022AdvertisingUS politicsRepublicansDemocratsfeaturesReuse this content More