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      Donald Trump 2024? It looks like it’s happening – but there’s a silver lining | Arwa Mahdawi

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      Donald Trump 2024? It looks like it’s happening – but there’s a silver liningArwa MahdawiThe former president has been dropping heavy hints that he’s going to attempt a comeback. With luck he and arch-rival Ron DeSantis will rip the Republicans apart

      US midterm elections 2022 – latest live news updates
      You know how the saying goes: if at first you don’t succeed then sulk like a toddler, baselessly claim that an election was stolen from you, then try, try again. After lots of will-he-won’t-he it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will run for president in 2024. Last Thursday, Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s 2016 campaign lead, said that we can expect Trump to announce his candidacy soon and rumours have been flying ever since. Over the past few days, Trump advisers have been dropping hints to the media that the former president will run and Trump himself has been teasing a comeback at events across the country. On Monday, shares of the company that will take Trump’s social media venture public rallied in anticipation of the idea that the guy who reportedly drinks 12 Diet Cokes a day, likes to flush White House documents down the toilet and is mired in multiple lawsuits, might become the most powerful man in the world again.So when will Trump make this cursed announcement? Probably as soon as I file this column, knowing my luck. And I’m not the only one nervous about Trump’s timing. A number of Republicans reportedly spent Monday frantically calling up Trump and begging him not to announce his candidacy until after Tuesday’s midterm elections. The worry among some Republicans is that Trump’s news would overshadow the midterms and send Democratic voters scrambling to the polls. Trump, in an unusual display of self-restraint, has suggested that we should all mark our calendars for 15 November when he’ll make a “very big” announcement from Mar-a-Lago. “We want nothing to detract from the importance of tomorrow,” he added, as he made an announcement he knew was guaranteed to make headlines and steal at least some attention from the midterms.I know it’s grim to think we might all have to suffer through two years of Trump-the-candidate (and that’s not even figuring in the fact that he might win), but there is a silver lining to this horror show. Namely, there’s a decent chance that Trump throwing his hat into the ring will divide the Republican party and, if we’re lucky, cause them to eat their own. Right now, you see, the top unofficial 2024 Republican contender is Florida governor Ron DeSantis, whom Trump is extremely annoyed with. Trump helped DeSantis go from relative obscurity to rightwing darling when he endorsed him back in 2018. Since then, however, DeSantis hasn’t been kissing the ring enough. He’s gone from a protege to a potential threat – one that Trump is very keen on neutralising. We know that Trump is serious about taking down DeSantis because he’s reached for strategy No 1 in his “How to Be a Political Genius” handbook: come up with a devastating nickname for your opponent. On Saturday Trump unveiled his new moniker for the Florida governor: “Ron DeSanctimonious”. Not bad, but it feels a little try-hard. Probably because it is, in fact, extremely try-hard. According to the New York Times: “Mr Trump has been privately testing derisive nicknames for Mr DeSantis with his friends and advisers, including the put-down he used on Saturday.” I know that we should all be worried about the death of democracy and all that but I just love the idea of Trump convening a little writers’ room where everyone workshops nicknames for his nemeses.Speaking of strategies, the Democrats, I reckon, ought to be weaponising Trump’s insecurities as best they can. Democrats should be getting operatives to call up Trump and say: “Hey, did you hear what DeSanctimonious said about you?” Then they should be calling DeSantis up and saying: “Hey, did you hear what Trump said about you?” Then they should sit back and watch as two of the most popular – and most awful – Republicans tear each other apart. Forget Nixon’s “madman theory”: behold Mahdawi’s “middle-school politics theory”.TopicsDonald TrumpOpinionUS midterm elections 2022US politicsRepublicanscommentReuse this content More

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      The future of American democracy is at stake in the midterm elections | Andrew Gawthorpe

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      The future of American democracy is at stake in the midterm electionsAndrew GawthorpeThe majority of the Republican candidates for the House of Representatives are election-deniers – and a Republican-controlled Congress might attempt to sabotage the certification of the next presidential vote Midterm elections are generally seen as less important than presidential elections. The stakes seem lower, which means fewer people turn out to vote. Most of the time the party controlling the White House takes losses, and this predictability can make midterms seem less important too: what can one voter do against the strength of the political tides? But occasionally there are midterms whose stakes rise beyond whether or not the president’s party will be able to pass new laws, and instead concern the whole future of the American republic. This year is one of them.Is Herschel Walker the worst candidate the Republicans have ever run? | Jill FilipovicRead moreThat’s because this year, the majority of Republican candidates running for Congress, governor’s mansions, and other key statewide offices have denied or questioned the results of the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump’s attempted coup failed in 2020 because officeholders at the federal and state level refused to go along with it. This year’s midterm elections could change all of that, producing a set of Republican officials willing to extinguish American democracy.There have been several other midterms in American history which foreshadowed chaos and violence to come. In 1858, the anti-slavery Republican party won a plurality in the House of Representatives, exacerbating the divisions which would lead to the civil war. In 1874, the Democratic party won a massive majority in the House, which turned out to be enormously consequential amid the contested election of 1876. In return for not attempting to block the inauguration of the Republican candidate Rutherford B Hayes, House Democrats demanded the withdrawal of federal troops from the south, ending Reconstruction.Both of these midterms were momentous, but they also differed from our present situation. Abraham Lincoln’s election in 1860 rent the Union, but nobody doubted that he had been legitimately elected president. On the other hand, widespread violence and fraud meant that the election of 1876 was genuinely contested, and even today the question of “who really won?” is difficult to answer. The end of Reconstruction had horrific consequences for African Americans in the south, but the basic institution of competitive elections lived on, and with it the possibility for future change.Never before in American history has there been an organized movement which was only one vote away from having the motivation and opportunity to make that election America’s last. Never that is, until now. Today’s anti-democratic movement is propelled not by genuine controversy or scandal, but rather by their commitment to ending competitive elections in the United States. There is no other way to interpret their belief that only one side, the Republicans, can legitimately be considered to win, and the plans that they hold to make this belief a reality.The problems can be expected to start this November, when Republican candidates who lose will question the validity of the results and try to stir unrest. State officials who do win will begin to act on their plans to sabotage future polls by centralizing power in their own offices, de-registering millions of voters, and moving to error-prone hand-counting systems. Then, if voter suppression doesn’t prevent a Democratic win in 2024, they’ll just suppress the evidence instead and announce that they are sending Republican electors to the electoral college. Meanwhile, the majority of Republican House candidates in 2022 are election-deniers, and a Republican-controlled Congress might attempt to sabotage the certification of the presidential vote on 6 January 2025.Each of these potential points of failure threatens the integrity of the 2024 presidential election. The breadth and depth of the anti-democratic movement also means that they are likely to pose other problems which are difficult to anticipate. Whatever means they find of sabotaging the vote, it would be foolish to rely on the conservative-dominated supreme court to stop them, particularly if the country has been plunged into civil unrest and violence.That’s why measures like reforming the Electoral Count Act, something which Congress may take up in the lame duck session after the midterms, are not enough. Legal tinkering can only go so far in the face of a dedicated movement, especially if it is willing to go outside the law and provoke violence on the streets. The only thing that can avert an impending crisis is to keep Republican party’s election saboteurs out of office. Yet the Democratic party has decided to largely fight the midterms on other issues which they think motivate voters more effectively. And while it’s true that very few voters do identify threats to democracy as the most important issue facing the country, this is partly down to a failure of Democrats and the media to communicate just how bad things might get.At least part of Democrats’ closing message in these elections must be dedicated to changing that. Voters need to understand that the threat to democracy is very real, and that bad choices this year could lead to complete breakdown in 2024. It might be impossible to stitch the national fabric back together or to return to free, competitive, reliable elections afterwards. Democracy is not some arcane or marginal topic but is at the very heart of America’s ability to undo its mistakes and move forwards as a nation. That makes these the most important midterms in American history. It’s way past time to communicate the stakes clearly.
      Andrew Gawthorpe is a historian of the United States at Leiden University and host of the podcast America Explained
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      Midterms scenarios: will Republicans take the Senate and the House?

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      Midterms scenarios: will Republicans take the Senate and the House?A handful of general scenarios could play out on Tuesday, each having huge significance for Biden and Donald Trump As Americans go to the polls on Tuesday they are voting in what Joe Biden has framed as a vital test for American democracy in the face of a Republican party fielding candidates who buy into the big lie of a stolen 2020 election.Republicans, meanwhile, have tried to capitalize on widespread economic anxiety in the face of rising inflation as well as stoking culture war themes and fears over crime, often spilling over into racism and intolerance.Why the US midterms matter – from abortion rights to democracyRead moreMillions of voters are casting their ballot as Republicans and Democrats fight for control of Congress, numerous state governorships as well as many local offices and ballot initiatives on issues like abortion.A handful of general scenarios could play out, each having momentous significance for the Biden presidency and the tactics of a resurgent Republican party and its de facto leader Donald Trump.Republicans win the House, Democrats hold the SenateIn a split decision, expect Republicans to thwart Biden’s legislative agenda and launch a flurry of congressional investigations, for example into the botched military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the president’s son Hunter’s business dealings in China and Ukraine. Trump ally Jim Jordan might take the lead.A Republican majority would also doom the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. They might even seek revenge by launching a counter-investigation into telecom companies that handed over phone records to the committee or into members of the panel themselves.Policy-wise, Republicans could seek to reverse some major accomplishments of Biden’s first two years, such as climate spending, student loan forgiveness and corporate tax increases.Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader and current favourite to become House speaker, has told Punchbowl News that Republicans would use a future battle over raising the national debt ceiling as leverage to force cuts in public spending.McCarthy has also warned that the party will not write a “blank cheque” for Ukraine, while Marjorie Taylor Greene, expected to be a prominent figure in the Republican caucus, told a rally in Iowa: “Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine. Our country comes first.”But a Democratic-controlled Senate would be able to continue rubber-stamping Biden’s nominations for cabinet secretaries and federal judges.Republicans win House and SenateDespite polarisation in Washington, Biden has so far achieved some bipartisan victories on infrastructure, gun safety, health benefits for veterans and manufacturing investments to compete with China. But Republicans would be less likely to allow him further wins as the next presidential election draws closer.Instead, expect a new antagonism between the White House and Congress. A Republican-controlled Senate could slow down or block Biden’s judicial nominees, including if there is an unexpected opening on the supreme court.Conversely, Republican attempts to harden rules on immigration, gun rights or ban transgender women from playing in women’s sports would surely be met by a Biden presidential veto.The Republican policy agenda remains nebulous. Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader in the Senate, has resisted publishing a platform, fuelling criticism that the party has a cult of personality around Trump.Former president Barack Obama told a recent rally in Atlanta, Georgia: “These days, right now, just about every Republican politician seems obsessed with two things: owning the libs and getting Donald Trump’s approval.”Rick Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, did publish a 12-point plan that includes forcing poorer Americans who do not currently pay income tax to do so and reauthorising social security and Medicare every five years instead of allowing the programmes to continue automatically.And Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina introduced a bill to create a national ban on abortions at 15 weeks, dividing Republicans and infuriating progressive activists. If far-right members put it to a vote, Senate Democrats would be sure to filibuster it.The White House, meanwhile, would be forced on the defensive against a slew of congressional investigations into Afghanistan, Hunter Biden and other targets.Democrats hold House and SenateThis would be a huge surprise and defy historical trends. Opinion pollsters would be crying into their beer, fearing that their industry is well and truly broken.A Democratic sweep would give Joe Biden a mandate to enact a sweeping agenda that would again invite comparisons with former presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson.Biden said last month that, if Democrats win control of Congress, the first bill he sends to Capitol Hill next year would codify Roe v Wade, the 1973 supreme court decision that overturned the constitutional right to abortion. The party could also push for national protections for same-sex marriage and voting rights.The president wants further actions on gun safety including a ban on assault weapons. He could seek to resurrect elements of his Build Back Better agenda, including more climate measures and expanding the social safety net, and make another attempt to tackle racial discrimination in policing.And some Democrats are drafting legislation to prevent Trump from running for president in 2024 due to his instigation of the January 6 insurrection, the New York Times reported, although that would be a long shot.But much would depend on how big – or small – the Democratic majority turns out to be. If it is slender, the conservative Democrats Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona could once again call the shots and frustrate the president’s ambitions.TopicsUS newsUS politicsUS midterm elections 2022House of RepresentativesUS CongressDemocratsRepublicansnewsReuse this content More

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      Tuesday briefing: What you need to know ahead of US midterms

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      Tuesday briefing: What you need to know ahead of US midtermsIn today’s newsletter: As Americans vote for senators, representatives and local officials, our Washington DC bureau chief explains why this contest is so important and how the balance of power might shift

      Sign up here for our daily newsletter, First Edition
      Good morning.Today the midterm elections are being held across America. Ballots will be cast for senators, representatives and local officials in one of the most important contests in recent years. It has become tiresome to describe every American election as uniquely significant, but there is a lot at stake with these midterms as the chasm between Democrats and Republicans grows ever wider, and the supreme court decision to no longer protect abortion rights hangs in the air.Despite a slim majority in Congress, Joe Biden and the Democrats have spent the past two years pushing through new laws on gun control, the climate crisis, child poverty and infrastructure – much more than many thought possible. But any change in the balance of power will bring that momentum to a grinding halt.And for many Democrats this is not just an election about policy, it is a fight for democracy itself. Two hundred candidates are running, some of them in key seats, who believe that the last election was stolen from Donald Trump. Hearings on the January 6 insurrection have been shocking – and only two weeks ago the husband of the US House speaker Nancy Pelosi was attacked in their house. If Republicans were to enjoy a resounding success, it is far from clear they would accept any future Democratic victory in a presidential election. I spoke to David Smith, the Guardian’s Washington DC bureau chief, about why these midterms matter so much and what the results could mean for America.Five big stories
      Climate | Low-income countries will need approximately $2tn (£1.75tn) in climate funding by 2030 to help cut their emissions and cope with the effects of the climate crisis.
      Russia | Putin ally and influential Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted to interfering in the US elections and has said that interfering will continue in the coming midterms.
      Politics | A senior civil servant said that Gavin Williamson subjected them to a campaign of bullying when he was defence secretary, allegedly telling them to “slit your throat” and “jump out of the window” on two separate occasions.
      Weather | The Met Office predicts severe flooding across England in February despite the country remaining in drought. The floods will be a result of La Niña, a weather phenomenon influenced by cooler temperatures in the Pacific.
      Courts | Hollie Dance – the mother of Archie Battersbee, a 12-year-old boy who sustained a catastrophic brain injury in April and died in August – wants a coroner to examine the role of exposure to TikTok videos may have played in his death. Dance believes her son was hurt by taking part in an online challenge known as the “blackout challenge”.
      In depth: ‘History suggests a good night for Republicans’Midterm elections are usually high-stakes affairs, often viewed as a referendum on the sitting president. But this year’s are particularly consequential. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, about one-third of the Senate, and 36 state governorships, among other local positions that have a say on how votes will be counted at future elections. As things stand, the Democrats have control in Washington – from the presidency to Congress to the Senate (the Senate is currently divided 50-50 but Vice-President Kamala Harris is the tie-breaking vote). But it’s famously hard for a sitting president to maintain an advantage, even more so during a cost of living crisis.It’s conventional wisdom that Republicans will probably win the House at least, says David: “History suggests Republicans will have a good night because, on the vast majority of occasions, the party that holds the White House loses seats. And polling in recent days seems to underline that.” A win in the house would give Republicans the power to cut spending for aid to Ukraine and welfare spending. Republicans have also said they plan to disband the January 6 committee and start a slew of investigations into their Democratic opponents. There have even been calls to impeach Joe Biden, although senior Republicans have been downplaying the likelihood of that happening. A fully Republican Congress could also push for a national abortion ban – although any changes to such legislation would be vetoed by the president.If the GOP wins the senate as well, they will be able to obstruct Biden’s political agenda, as well as blocking many of his cabinet secretaries and judicial appointments.The key racesThere are a number of contests that everyone is keeping a very close eye on. Perhaps the biggest is Georgia: “The rule used to be whichever way Florida goes, so goes the nation,” says David, but “Georgia has, in many ways, replaced Florida as the pivotal state in the nation.”Georgia’s senate race is extremely important. Raphael Warnock’s win in 2021 was key to the Democrats securing control of the senate. Now Warnock faces off against Herschel Walker, a former football player who “has no discernible political experience or qualifications”, David says. Walker has been embroiled in controversy for a year as stories of his affairs, extramarital children and allegations of domestic violence came to light. Most recently, a former girlfriend asserted that he paid for for her to have an abortion, despite Walker running on a hardline anti-abortion platform.And Georgia is also where Democratic favourite (and Star Trek’s president of a United Earth), Stacey Abrams, will again try to wrestle the governership from Brian Kemp. A victory for Abrams would ensure voting and abortion rights are bolstered in the state.Other races to watch out for are Ohio, where author of Hillbilly Elegy, Trump critic turned sycophant JD Vance is running: “If Democrats win in a state that has really been trending Republican in recent years, there’ll be a lot of blame on Vance and perhaps Donald Trump for backing him,” David says.Pennsylvania, home of Joe Biden, is another crucial state with TV personality Dr Mehmet Oz running against the 6’8” tattooed lieutenant governor, John Fetterman, in the senate race. Oz secured a Trump endorsement, as did Doug Mastriano, who is running for governor of the same state. Mastriano was part of the effort to overturn the 2020 elections and appeared outside the US Capitol during January 6 riots. He could be a key part of a Trump presidential run in 2024.A divided nation“It feels as if there are two separate campaigns and conversations happening, that are operating on different planets,” David says. “In the past, at least, there was a shared set of issues, and both parties would be looking to be the best on inflation or healthcare.”Republicans have focused on inflation, specifically petrol prices, and the cost of living crisis. They have also made characteristic campaign points about crime and other culture war topics such as immigration. Conversely, Democrats have been focused on reproductive rights following the supreme court decision to overturn Roe v Wade, as well as the threats to democracy, voting rights and the climate crisis. “A lot of opinion polls are suggesting that Republicans’ issues are likely to win the day, because so often, people vote according to their pocketbook and the economy,” says David.What it means for the rest of Joe Biden’s first termJoe Biden’s presidential approval rating hovers around 40%. A poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos found that 69% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, while just 18% said it was on the right track. While the Democrats have managed to recover from a summer slump in the polls, a big Republican victory could further entrench his political weakness, freeze up his administration for its final two years and lead to calls for Biden to step aside for another Democrat in the presidential race in 2024.The T wordDonald Trump has still had time to have a weirdly active role in these midterm elections, having endorsed more than 200 candidates on all levels of the political system. His senate endorsements in particular will be a litmus test for the Republican party. “In a normal world, if all of his candidates lost and they got wiped out, there could be a sense that Donald Trump really does not have the political midas touch that many believed he had,” David says. But this is not a normal world, and it’s likely that regardless of what happens, Trump will claim the victory as his own: “If they lose, he’ll say they failed to follow his advice, maybe they did not embrace the ‘big lie’ enough. Or he could just say the vote was rigged and it’s all another scam.”However, if Trump candidates do win, he will be the first to claim it was all down to him and that he has been vindicated. It has been reported that Trump plans to launch his next presidential campaign around the week of 14 November on the back of any momentum from the midterms.When will we know for the results?Even though voters will be casting their ballots today, it might be days, perhaps even weeks, before there is a clear picture of results. Republicans might seem to have a huge early lead, but that will be because – for the second election in a row – their votes will be counted and reported first in several battleground states. It’s a deliberate change made by Republican officials in some states, making it easier to cast doubt on results when the final tally differs markedly from early announcements. This is coupled with the fact that Democrats traditionally use mail-in ballots far more than Republican voters, and those ballots can take longer to tally and tend to be reported in the days after the election.There will be some idea of how the election went tomorrow morning. In the meantime, read more of the Guardian’s midterm elections coverage here.What else we’ve been reading
      There are so many parts of Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett’s latest column that will chime for parents – but for me it was the way she captures the constant change of early parenthood that really struck home, every shift gifting “a whole new phase, while mourning that which came before”. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
      Benjamin Zand spent a year inside the incel community in the UK and abroad, uncovering a world marred by desperation, loneliness and violent misogyny. Nimo
      Elle Hunt’s lovely feature, talking to the bands who had their music coopted by politicians, is perhaps best encapsulated by this quote from Friendly Fires’ response to Boris Johnson using their song as entrance music: “If we’d have intended them to use it, we’d have named the track Blue Bunch of Corrupt Wankers.” Toby
      Georgina Sturge unpacks how “bad data” infiltrated British politics and what the implications are on policy when a government relies on erroneous or partial information. “Numbers hold enormous power,” Sturge writes, “but in the end, we must remember that we govern them – not the other way round.” Nimo
      Ham in a can is back, and Stuart Heritage’s tour through the best Spam recipes from the great and good of the culinary world offers one particularly dangerous idea: Spam french fries, anyone? Toby
      SportWorld Cup 2022 | Six out of 10 people in the UK think that the World Cup should not be held in Qatar because of its criminalisation of homosexuality. The same poll found that only 43% of people think that England and Wales should take part in the World Cup.Football | Liverpool and Manchester United face tough European challenges against Real Madrid and Barcelona in the next round of Champions and Europa Leagues.Football | Rio Ferdinand is typically thoughtful on the subjects of racism and homophobia in this revealing interview with Donald McRae.The front pagesThe Guardian leads this morning with “Poor nations ‘paying twice’ for climate breakdown”. The i has “Red alert for Earth: gravest warning yet on climate change” while the Metro covers Cop27 as well with “Sunak turns on the Sharm”, geddit? The Daily Mail asks “Just what planet are they on?” – it says incredulously that campaigners want the UK to pay $1tn in climate reparations to poorer nations. Other papers show Rishi Sunak embracing Emmanuel Macron at Cop27 but it is not their lead story. “Welfare and pensions set to rise with inflation” – that’s the Times while the Daily Telegraph has “Gas deal set to ease energy crisis” and the Daily Express goes with “Rishi: I will get ‘grip’ on migrant crisis”. The Mirror’s splash is inspiring but also a bit challenging: “Brave mum’s TV dissection to educate millions” (about cancer – the “extraordinary broadcast” will take place on Channel 4). It is still on the trail of Lord Lucan as well – a puff box says “Lucan brother: he DID escape and become a Buddhist”. The top story in the Financial Times today is “Chancellor lines up stealth raid on inheritance tax to shore up finances”.Today in FocusUS midterms: is it still the economy, stupid?The Democrats have learned hard lessons over the years about what happens when election campaigns neglect the economy, so has the party been strong enough in its messaging for today’s midterm elections? Lauren Gambino reportsCartoon of the day | Steve BellThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badDuring monsoon season in south-western Bangladesh, when there is little dry land on which to grow food, farmers keep their businesses afloat – quite literally – by growing vegetables on rafts made from invasive water hyacinths. These floating gardens help ensure food security in low-lying regions, where the climate crisis has resulted in waterlogging and flooding. Photographer Mohammad Ponir Hossain, who won a Pulitzer for his images of Rohingya refugees, has captured the practice and the people behind it.Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
      Quick crossword
      Cryptic crossword
      TopicsRepublicansFirst EditionUS midterm elections 2022Joe BidenStacey AbramsDonald TrumpDemocratsUS politicsnewslettersReuse this content More

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      US midterms: is it still the economy, stupid? – podcast

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      The Democrats have learned hard lessons over the years about what happens when election campaigns neglect the economy, so has the party been strong enough in its messaging for today’s midterm elections? Lauren Gambino reports

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      The midterm elections are usually bad news for the party in power. Voters often view them as a referendum on the president’s performance – and the state of the economy. So Democrats went into the campaign fearing the worst. As the Guardian’s Washington correspondent Lauren Gambino tells Michael Safi, the Democratic party has learned the hard way to keep its election campaigns laser-focused on the economy. ‘It’s the economy, stupid,’ a slogan used in Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, has resonated down the ages. But Democrats have spent much of the past few months campaigning on women’s rights after the seismic supreme court decision removing the constitutional right to abortion. And Joe Biden used his final major speech of the campaign to warn voters of the threat to democracy itself. Democrats go into these elections lagging in the polls and it’s left some hardened campaigners, such as Bernie Sanders, wondering if the party has neglected its most famous mantra. When it comes down to what Americans care about most in the voting booth, is it still the economy, stupid? More

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      Midterms live: Biden and Trump hit campaign trail as 41 million US voters cast early ballots in crucial elections

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      It’s the last full day of election campaigning before the big vote tomorrow. US president Joe Biden and former president and Republican beacon Donald Trump will be out on the trail in a contest where so much is at stake for each of their parties – and American democracy.It’s a tough battle for the Democrats against strong economic headwinds in the shape of record inflation and fears of recession, despite the fact that such gales are howling across many other countries as well, driven by ongoing fall-out from the pandemic and the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The party has been struggling against their president’s low approval ratings for more than a year now – though it hopes the shock of the US Supreme Court stripping federal abortion rights when it overturned Roe v Wade in June and the threat of extremism from the right will boost their chances.Republicans hope not only to pick up the traditional midterms backlash against the party in power but to power a “red wave” and win big, wresting the majority in both the House and Senate from the Democrats.Biden is rallying in the governor’s race in Maryland tonight and Trump is stumping in Ohio, where Democratic congressman Tim Ryan is battling JD Vance. Biden’s warning of what will happen to the US economy if Republicans ever get a chance to wreck the healthcare and retirement benefits backbone.Folks, there’s nothing that will create more chaos and more damage to the American economy than if Republicans in Congress threaten to default on the national debt in order to sunset programs like Medicare and Social Security.— President Biden (@POTUS) November 6, 2022
      We’ll have a Guardian reporter at each event tonight, in Bowie, Maryland, and Dayton, Ohio.All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the line, 35 out of 100 Senate seats are being contested in these midterms election.Johana Bhuiyan here taking over the blog.Today, President Joe Biden spoke at a virtual Democratic National Committee reception and said he was optimistic about tomorrow’s elections and thanked those in attendance for their hard work. He also warned that they still had a “lot of work to do to get out that vote”, according to a pool report.“You helped get me and Kamala elected in 2020 and we’re going to surprise the living devil out of people because of all the work you’ve done,” Biden said.Biden also said that if “Maga Republicans take over” American jobs, ingenuity, as well as fundamental rights and freedoms are “very much in jeopardy”.“I want to remind you to remind your teams, with so much at stake for our nation, don’t leave a thing – put it all out there,” he said. “Go full bore till the last poll closes. Make that extra call – not a joke. Knock on that extra door.”Hello again, live blog readers, it’s a lively day in US politics, on the eve of the midterm elections. We’ll continue to bring you the news as it happens for the next few hours. My colleague Johana Bhuiyan will take over now.Here’s where the day stands so far:
      House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s first interview since the attack on her husband, Paul Pelosi, last month by a seemingly-unhinged, right-wing conspiracy theory-spouting assailant will be broadcast tonight by CNN at 8pm.
      Donald Trump has appealed a judge’s order to install a watchdog at the Trump Organization family business before a civil fraud case by the state’s attorney general goes to trial.
      Rumors are swirling that Trump could announce his 2024 presidential bid tonight when he appears at a rally for Senate candidate JD Vance in Dayton, Ohio, on the eve of the midterm elections, where Republicans hope to shine.
      Twitter owner Elon Musk posted on his social media platform endorsing the Republicans in the midterm elections.
      Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the so-called Wagner mercenary group fighting on Russia’s side in the invasion of Ukraine, said today he had interfered in US elections and would continue doing so in future.
      It’s the last full day of election campaigning before the big vote tomorrow. US president Joe Biden and former president and Republican beacon Donald Trump will be out on the trail tonight in a contest where so much is at stake for each of their parties – and American democracy.
      Yet more speculation that Donald Trump could announce his next run for president, in the 2024 race, tonight at a rally he’s attending in Ohio for Republican candidate for the US Senate there, JD Vance.Now the New York Post has a report. Note the ever-teasing, ever-shifting nature of the situation. The tabloid notes, citing anonymous sources, that Trump “has told several allies he could announce a 2024 presidential run Monday night” – bold italics ours.The article further mentions, again our bolding and italicizing: “A well-connected Republican source said the 45th president was ‘telling people he might tonight, but it’s not a done thing’.”The Post acknowledges it’s not clear what will happen, and that Trump is “mercurial.”A judge today agreed to extend the deadline to return absentee ballots for voters in a suburban Atlanta county who didn’t receive their ballots because election officials failed to mail them.Some of the voters filed a lawsuit Sunday seeking the extension after Cobb county election officials in Cobb county acknowledged Friday that the county failed to mail out more than 1,000 absentee ballots to voters who had requested them, The Associated Press reports.County elections director Janine Eveler wrote in an email to the county election board that because of staff error, ballots were never created nor sent on two days last month, the lawsuit says..css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}We know it wasn’t the voters’ fault, we know it wasn’t the post office’s fault. This was an administrative error,” said Daniel White, an attorney for the elections office, according to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.As a result of the error, 1,036 voters never received the ballots they requested. State election data shows that about 250 of them had voted in person during early voting.But the lawsuit said many of those whose ballots weren’t sent may not be able to vote without action by the court.Election officials agreed to the lawsuit’s demands that the deadline to return ballots be extended and that the voters be contacted and sent an absentee ballot by overnight mail.During the three weeks of early voting that precede Election Day, election officials are supposed to send out ballots within three days of receiving a request. Voters then have until 7 p.m. on Election Day to return their ballots.Georgia is a battleground state that features a fiercely contested governor’s race, as well as a Senate contest between Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker that could determine which party controls the narrowly divided chamber.Georgia ballot rules mean voters are falling between cracks, advocates sayRead moreHere’s the Guardian’s latest Politics Weekly America podcast, where host Jonathan Freedland reports from Georgia.Georgia fights for democracy – Politics Weekly America Midterms SpecialRead moreFor Raphael Warnock, a boost from Stevie Wonder can’t hurt.The GOAT @StevieWonder himself knows the stakes of this election. Make your plan to vote this Tuesday! pic.twitter.com/jNoLzeDysg— Reverend Raphael Warnock (@ReverendWarnock) November 6, 2022
      The newest US Supreme Court justice Ketanji Brown Jackson has issued her first supreme court opinion, making a short dissent today in support of a death row inmate from Ohio.Jackson wrote that she would have thrown out lower court rulings in the case of inmate Davel Chinn, whose lawyers argued that the state suppressed evidence that might have altered the outcome of his trial, The Associated Press reports.Jackson, in a two-page opinion, wrote that she would have ordered a new look at Chinn’s case:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Because his life is on the line and given the substantial likelihood that the suppressed records would have changed the outcome at trial.”The evidence at issue indicated that a key witness against Chinn has an intellectual disability that might have affected his memory and ability to testify accurately, she wrote.Prosecutors are required to turn over potentially exculpatory evidence to the defense. In this case, lower courts determined that the outcome would not have been affected if the witness’ records had been provided to Chinn’s lawyers.Justice Sonia Sotomayor was the only other member of the court to join Jackson’s opinion. The two justices also were allies in dissent Monday in Sotomayor’s opinion that there was serious prosecutorial misconduct in the trial of a Louisiana man who was convicted of sex trafficking.Jackson joined the high court on June 30, following the retirement of Justice Stephen Breyer, her onetime boss.The court has yet to decide any of the cases argued in October or the first few days of this month. Jackson almost certainly will be writing a majority opinion in one of those cases.There’s a fuller report from The Hill, which has this quote:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Justices Jackson and Sotomayor recognized the injustice in upholding Davel Chinn’s conviction and death sentence when the State suppressed exculpatory evidence that, based on the Ohio Courts’ own representations, was likely to result in an acquittal. Ohio must not exacerbate the mistakes of the past by pursuing Mr. Chinn’s execution,” said Rachel Troutman, an attorney for Chinn.Results in the midterm elections will come through in dribs and drabs after polls close at various times tomorrow and races could be called in hours, a few days or more.Here’s a useful piece from FiveThirtyEight with a guide to the races state by state. We probably won’t know who the winners are on election night itself, and therefore who will have control of the House and Senate next year.For example, in the crucial race in Pennsylvania for an open US Senate seat, things could take a while.INBOX: @JohnFetterman’s campaign says in a memo to reporters to “buckle up for a long week,” saying that the ballot counting process could take “several days” before the results are made clear #PASEN https://t.co/bOoHG0jxJP pic.twitter.com/sRoPEtbbGG— Julia Manchester (@JuliaManch) November 7, 2022
      Why the midterms matter, by our Guardian team:Why the US midterms matter – from abortion rights to democracyRead moreThe Guardian relies on the Associated Press to declare when races have been called.US support for Ukraine’s continued resistance to the invasion by Russia will be “unflinching and unwavering,” the White House has asserted.White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre is briefing the media in Washington right now and has been asked about support for Ukraine, given a lot of reporting that if the Republicans win control of one or both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections they will block further spending on military aid for Ukraine.Jean-Pierre said that the White House will work hard to make sure there is a bipartisan effort on Ukraine, no matter the results of the midterm elections.Those voters who have not already cast their ballots are invited to go to the polls tomorrow, on election day.Meanwhile, Jean-Pierre reported that no specific, credible threats to the security of the midterm elections have been reported by law enforcement, Reuters adds.“Law enforcement has briefed us that there are no specific, credible threats identified at this point,” Jean-Pierre told the briefing.Biden has been briefed “on the threat environment and directed that all appropriate steps be taken to ensure safe and secure voting,” she said.Further on Ukraine:Russia admits to interfering in US elections on behalf of Republicans, the same week Marjorie Taylor Greene (who’s angling to be Trump’s running mate) promises that “under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine” https://t.co/JZFpehpg6L— Laura Bassett (@LEBassett) November 7, 2022
      House speaker Nancy Pelosi was asleep in her residence in Washington when the doorbell rang at 5am on Friday morning last month, followed by banging on the door, CNN reports.“So I run to the door, and I’m very scared,” Pelosi has told Anderson Cooper in an exclusive interview to be aired on CNN tonight.She added: “I see the Capitol police and they say, ‘We have to come in to talk to you.’ And I’m thinking my children, my grandchildren. I never thought it would be Paul because, you know, I knew he wouldn’t be out and about, shall we say. And so they came in. At that time, we didn’t even know where he was,” she said.Paul Pelosi had been attacked in the couple’s San Francisco home, an assailant, demanding to see Nancy, whacking him on the head with a hammer, breaking his skull and putting him in hospital.House Speaker Nancy Pelosi describes the moment she learned about the attack on her husband in her first sit-down interview since the violence in their home https://t.co/1L8EZLHWvD— CNN (@CNN) November 7, 2022
      The attack heightened fears of further escalation in threats of violence to lawmakers, families and staff.Former US president Donald Trump today appealed a judge’s order to install a watchdog at the Trump Organization family business before a civil fraud case by the state’s attorney general goes to trial.Manhattan-based judge Arthur Engoron last Thursday granted state attorney general Letitia James’s request to appoint an independent monitor to halt alleged ongoing fraud at the real estate company and keep the Trumps from transferring assets out of her reach, Reuters reports.Engoron’s order bars the defendants from transferring assets without court approval, and requires that the monitor receive a “full and accurate description” of the Trump Organization’s structure and assets.James had in September named Trump, three of his adult children, the Trump Organization and others as defendants in a $250m civil fraud lawsuit for allegedly overvaluing assets and Trump’s net worth through a decade of lies to banks and insurers.In a notice of appeal filed today, Trump’s lawyer Alina Habba and lawyers for his children, Eric Trump, Ivanka Trump, and Donald Trump Jr, said the defendants asked the appellate division, a mid-level state appeals court, to review Engoron’s order, without laying out her legal arguments.Trump, a Republican, last week called Engoron’s order “ridiculous” and the Trump Organization called it an “obvious attempt” to influence Tuesday’s midterm US elections. James is a Democrat.Engoron gave both sides until 10 November to recommend three candidates to be come a monitor.The case is among many legal battles Trump faces as he mulls a 2024 bid for the presidency.Testimony began last week in another Manhattan courtroom in a criminal case by the Manhattan district attorney’s office accusing the Trump Organization of scheming to defraud tax authorities for at least 15 years. The company has pleaded not guilty.New York civil fraud suit could bring down the Trump OrganizationRead moreJames has accused Trump et al of “staggering fraud”.A Michigan judge harshly rebuked Kristina Karamo, the Republican nominee to be Michigan’s top election official, as he rejected a last-minute lawsuit to get tens of thousands of mail-in ballots rejected.Karamo’s campaign filed a last minute challenge seeking to invalidate mail-in ballots in Detroit, which is heavily Black and Democratic, saying the city’s process for validating the mail-in votes ran afoul of state law. A ruling in her favor could have invalidated the votes of 60,000 people who voted by mail already in the city.But Timothy Kenny, the chief judge for the third judicial circuit, rejected that request on Monday, saying the challengers had not produced any evidence of illegal activity.“Plaintiffs have raised a false flag of election law violations and corruption concerning Detroit’s procedures for the November 8th election. This Court’s ruling takes down that flag,” Kenny wrote in his ruling. “Plaintiffs’ failure to produce any evidence that the procedures for this November 8th election violate state or federal election law demonizes the Detroit City Clerk, her office staff, and the 1,200 volunteers working this election. These claims are unjustified, devoid of any evidentiary basis and cannot be allowed to stand,” he added. A Wayne county judge had pretty harsh words for the campaign of the GOP nominee for secretary of state, who wanted tens of thousands of mail-in ballots in Detroit rejected. “These claims are unjustified,devoid of any evidentiary basis and cannot be allowed to stand.” pic.twitter.com/FdZDhXrBgJ— Sam Levine (@srl) November 7, 2022
      I’ve been reporting in Michigan these last few days and yesterday afternoon I caught up with Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat who is running for re-election as secretary of state. She’s also overseeing the election here, a key battleground state, where there are concerns about violence and intimidation at the polls.Benson is one of several Democrats across the country who are running against opponents who have cast doubt on the 2020 election results. Her opponent, Kristina Karamo, has falsely claimed she witnessed fraud on election night in 2020 and recently filed a lawsuit trying to get thousands of mail-in ballots in Detroit rejected.Benson told me she saw the suit as an effort to pre-emptively cast doubt on the election results in Detroit.“This is certainly a strategic effort to sow seeds of doubt about the integrity of our elections, about the validity of absentee ballots in Detroit. There’s no question that’s the strategy there. I don’t think it’s worked,” she said.“What we’ve seen in response, and in part that’s because of the work we’ve done over the last few years to call out the election deniers and lies and the meritless lawsuits as they’ve been filed, is that there’s almost a uniform chorus, particularly coming from Detroit, acknowledging the invalidity of the lawsuit, acknowledging the real nefarious intent behind it, she added. “I think it’s backfired.”I also asked Benson, who is leading in the polls, what strategies other candidates running against election deniers could take away from her campaign.“Talking in the abstract about democracy being under attack, while that’s real and I’ve certainly done that over the last few years and will continue to do so, we really also need to talk in the specifics about what that actually means,” she said. “What it means to empower folks who have been lying to voters as opposed to holding them accountable and rejecting them.”Here’s something else from Levine and team:Some of the most consequential races in this election are the ones Americans may be least paying attention to. Overlooked battles for state legislative chambers that could have far-reaching consequences for US democracy https://t.co/HVGSNX7wyp w/ @rachelleingang @awitherspoon— Sam Levine (@srl) November 7, 2022
      Benson was getting some celeb support this weekend, as was governor Whitmer.AMAZING DAY in Michigan! VOTE @GovWhitmer and @JocelynBenson AND Prop 1, 2 AND 3!!!!! pic.twitter.com/9QSdsh1Mja— kerry washington (@kerrywashington) November 5, 2022
      Campaign trail madness.Thank you for everything Michigan! I looooooved hanging with you all. Next stop: Pennsylvania!!!!!!! #GoVote #SOSTour @KHBforjustice @JocelynBenson pic.twitter.com/y5NeO5DgwN— kerry washington (@kerrywashington) November 6, 2022
      Richard Luscombe reports on the prospects of the Republican “ultra-Maga” candidates, the standard-bearers of Trumpism, in tomorrow’s elections …The spectre of Donald Trump’s imminent declaration of a new White House run looms over races in several key states ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm elections, with the former president poised to seize on any success for ultra-conservative candidates as validation for his 2024 campaign.Opinion polls appearing to reflect a last-minute surge of support for Trump-endorsed nominees in a number of crucial congressional and governors’ contests came as the former president appeared at a rally for the Republican senator Marco Rubio in Florida on Sunday.Heaping praise on “an incredible slate of true Maga warriors”, Trump cited his “Make America Great Again” political slogan.Full article:Victory for ‘true Maga warriors’ would tighten Trump grip on Republican partyRead moreThe former US ambassador to the United Nations and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley told Republicans at a rally for Herschel Walker the Democrat in the Georgia Senate race, Rev Raphael Warnock, should be “deported”.“Legal immigrants are more patriotic than the leftists these days,” Haley said, in Hiram, Georgia on Sunday. “They worked to come into America and they love America. They want the laws followed in America. So the only person we need to make sure we deport is Warnock.”Haley, widely thought to be a potential candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, is the child of immigrants from India. Her comment drew criticism.Cornell William Brooks, a Harvard professor and pastor, wrote: “Were it not for civil rights laws Black folks died for, Nikki Haley’s family might not be in America.“Were it not for a HBCU [historically Black college and university] giving her father his first job in the US, Haley wouldn’t be in a position to insult Georgia’s first Black senator. Warnock’s history makes her story possible.”Walker and Warnock are locked in a tight race that could decide control of the US Senate, currently split 50-50 and controlled with the vote of the vice-president, Kamala Harris. On Monday, the polling website FiveThirtyEight.com put Warnock one point ahead.Haley also said Walker was “a good person who has been put through the ringer and has had everything but the kitchen sink thrown at him”.Walker, a former college and NFL football star, has been shown to have made numerous false claims about his business career and personal life. Two women have said he pressured them to have abortions – allegations he denies, while campaigning on a stringently anti-abortion platform.Here’s more about Walker:Herschel Walker hits back at Barack Obama: ‘Put my résumé against his’Read moreStewart Rhodes, the leader of the violent, rightwing militia-style organization the Oath Keepers, told jurors on Monday there was no plan for his band of extremists to attack the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 – as he tries to clear his name in his seditious conspiracy trial.Taking the stand in his defense for a second day, Rhodes testified that he had no idea that his followers were going to join the pro-Trump mob to storm the Capitol and that he was upset after he found out that some did, The Associated Press writes.Rhodes said he believed it was stupid for any Oath Keepers to go into the Capitol. He insisted that was not their “mission.”.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}There was no plan to enter the building for any purpose,” Rhodes told the court in Washington, DC.Rhodes is on trial with four others for what prosecutors have alleged was a plan to stage an armed rebellion to stop the transfer of presidential power from Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden.Prosecutors have tried to show that for the Oath Keepers, the riot was not a spur-of-the-moment protest but part of a serious, weeks-long plot.Rhodes’ defense is focused largely on the idea that his rhetoric was aimed at convincing Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act, which gives the president wide discretion to decide when military force is necessary and what qualifies as military force.Rhodes told jurors he believed it would have been legal for Trump to invoke that act and call up a militia in response to what he believed was an “unconstitutional” and “invalid” election.When prosecutors get a chance to question Rhodes this week, they are likely to highlight messages such as one Rhodes sent in December 2020 in which he said Trump “needs to know that if he fails to act, then we will.”Rhodes did not go into the Capitol during the insurrection on January 6 last year.Prosecutors have spent weeks methodically laying out evidence that shows Rhodes and the Oath Keepers discussing the prospect of violence before January 6 and the need to keep Biden out of the White House at all costs. Rhodes denies the charges against him.Rhodes on the 2020 election: “Yes, I thought it was illegal and also unconstitutional.”(Note: As a matter of law, it was neither.)— Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) November 7, 2022
      AlsoAsked whether he knew Oath Keepers went into Congress, Rhodes claims: “No, it didn’t cross my mind.”Q: Was there a plan to come in to disrupt the election?A: (laughs) No.— Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) November 7, 2022
      In the realm of ‘it’s the economy, stupid’, here’s what Joe Biden is tweeting this morning.I’ll do what it takes to bring inflation down. But I won’t accept the Republican argument that too many Americans have found good jobs and have more dignity in the workplace. Or that our largest, most profitable corporations shouldn’t have to pay their fair share.— President Biden (@POTUS) November 7, 2022
      And if you can vote but don’t you surely can’t complain about the outcome of the elections tomorrow. Here’s what US vice president Kamala Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff have on their minds today:We all have a responsibility to participate in our democracy by voting in each and every election. Election day is Tuesday, November 8th. Make a plan to vote. pic.twitter.com/boTwFH0F0n— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) November 7, 2022
      Here’s Guardian superstar columnist, professor, author and former labor secretary Robert Reich.Here’s an inquiry into the lies Republican candidates are telling about:1. Crime2. Inflation3. TaxesPlease share with others. At this point, every voter we can reach with the truth is one additional potential vote for decency and democracy.Keep doing whatever you can do. pic.twitter.com/OU9Tgz8ovC— Robert Reich (@RBReich) November 7, 2022
      American democracy itself is in effect on the ballot at tomorrow’s electionsThere are forces from the right-wing seeking to bring victories for Republican candidates running for office at national and state level who are threatening democracy in ways ranging from claiming that Joe Biden did not win the 2020 presidential election to planning more voter suppression and challenges to voting systems in numerous states.Democratic House majority whip James Clyburn issued a dire warning via Fox News yesterday.Rep. James Clyburn to Fox: “Democracy will be ending” if Democrats lose the midterms.”I’ve studied history all of my life. I taught history. And I’m telling you, what I see here are parallels to what the history was in this world back in the 1930s in Germany.”— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 7, 2022
      Clyburn swung vital, southern, Black voter support behind Joe Biden in 2020 to help him come from far behind to clinch the Democratic nomination for president.Here’s a recent Guardian special report on the threat to US elections.Democracy, poisoned: America’s elections are being attacked at every levelRead moreIn a round-up of predictions from some other outlets’ reporters whose job it is to be 24/7 election obsessives for the specialist websites, Politico summarizes some of the forecasts for the House.The Cook Political Report’s House of Representatives specialist David Wasserman assesses today that 212 seats House seats can be called “lean Republican” or stronger for the GOP and 188 seats are leaning towards the Democrats, and there are 35 seats he deems to be toss-ups.Wasserman tells Politico that if those toss-ups were to split evenly, Republicans would wind up at around 230 seats, a gain of 17. His team believes a Republican gain of 15 to 25 seats in the House is most likely but also that toss-ups could break mostly one way or the other and if they break red, that will of course push GOP gains even higher.Kyle Kondik’s House forecast for online political newsletter and election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball, reckons the GOP will gain 24 seats in the House. They only need to flip five seats from the current balance to give them control of the chamber and block further Biden legislation, no matter what happens in the US Senate.And opinion-poll analysis specialists FiveThirtyEight give Republicans an 80% chance of winning between one and 33 seats in the House.We’re forecasting the race to control the Senate and House, as well as each party’s chance of winning the 36 governor seats up for election. https://t.co/knpKHSsHLA— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) November 7, 2022
      Here’s an explainer from some of the Guardian US team about why the midterms matter.Why the US midterms matter – from abortion rights to democracyRead moreCould Trump announce his 2024 bid tonight?That is certainly the rumor flying around senior Republican circles at the moment, according to Axios scribe Jonathan Swan.The well-regarded journalist has tweeted that a flood of Republican figures are in various stages of panic and anticipation that Donald Trump will use the platform of his Ohio rally tonight to announce a 2024 run.Based calls/texts all morning, Trump/Vance rally in Ohio will be v closely watched by Rs. Speculation has reached a point of absurdity at this point but many Rs of varying degrees of closeness to Trump are anticipating accelerated announcement based on his recent private comments— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) November 7, 2022
      Of course, the truth is probably unknowable – perhaps even to Trump himself given his proclivity to do things on the fly. What is certain is that all the speculation on a Trump White House run is firmly centered on when not if.Republicans are going to revel in a so-called red wave in the US midterm elections, winning control of both chambers of Congress and putting Democrat Joe Biden’s back right up against the wall for the rest of this presidential term, if the predictions of Henry Olsen, Washington Post columnist and senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, are anything to go by.He is certainly at the high end of super-geek predictions in his forecast for the shellacking awaiting Democrats. He’s predicting that the GOP will gain 33 House seats and also take a 54-46 Senate majority once voting ends tomorrow evening.Politico, by contrast, is predicting a modest win for Republicans and keeps the Senate competition as a toss-up, with one last full day on the campaign trail remaining.About 41 million Americans have already voted in a surge of early voting, out of almost 170 million registered voters in the country.My 2022 midterm predictions are up! Rs gain 33 House seats and take a 54-46 Senate majority. Read them and see if you agree!https://t.co/YJeFFPVkeS— Henry Olsen (@henryolsenEPPC) November 7, 2022
      Here’s Olsen’s piece in the WaPo today. More

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      Outcry as Republican Nikki Haley says Raphael Warnock should be ‘deported’

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      Outcry as Republican Nikki Haley says Raphael Warnock should be ‘deported’Comments from former South Carolina governor and UN envoy, seen as a potential 2024 candidate, draw widespread criticism The former US ambassador to the United Nations and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley told Republicans at a rally for Herschel Walker the Democrat in the Georgia US Senate race, the Rev Raphael Warnock, should be “deported”.“I am the daughter of Indian immigrants,” Haley said in Hiram, Georgia, on Sunday. “They came here legally, they put in the time, they put in the price, they are offended by what’s happening on [the southern US] border.Midterms live: Biden and Trump hit campaign trail as 41 million US voters cast early ballots in crucial electionsRead more“Legal immigrants are more patriotic than the leftists these days. They knew they worked to come into America, and they love America. They want the laws followed in America, so the only person we need to make sure we deport is Warnock.”Haley is widely seen as a potential candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, a seemingly imminent declaration from Donald Trump notwithstanding. Her comment drew widespread criticism.Cornell William Brooks, a Harvard professor and pastor, wrote: “Were it not for civil rights laws Black folks died for, Nikki Haley’s family might not be in America.“Were it not for a HBCU [historically Black college and university] giving her father his first job in the US, Haley wouldn’t be in a position to insult Georgia’s first Black senator. Warnock’s history makes her story possible.”Heath Mayo, an anti-Trump conservative, said: “Nikki Haley calling to deport Raphael Warnock perfectly captures how those that should’ve been serious and talented leaders were really just weak toadies ready to say anything for applause. This entire generation of GOP ‘leaders’ failed their test and let the country down.”Walker and Warnock are locked in a tight race that could decide control of the Senate, currently split 50-50 and controlled by the vote of the vice-president, Kamala Harris. On Monday, the polling website FiveThirtyEight.com put Warnock one point ahead.Haley also said Walker was “a good person who has been put through the ringer and has had everything but the kitchen sink thrown at him”.Walker, a former college and NFL football star, has been shown to have made numerous false claims about his business career and personal life. Two women have said he pressured them to have abortions, allegations he denies while campaigning on a stringently anti-abortion platform.Warnock, a pastor at a church once home to the civil rights leader Martin Luther King, won his Senate seat in January 2021, defeating the Republican Kelly Loeffler in a run-off. That victory and Jon Ossoff’s win over David Perdue for the other Georgia seat gave Democrats their precarious control of the chamber.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsGeorgiaDemocratsRepublicansnewsReuse this content More

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      Expect the Trump-DeSantis animosity to evolve into open warfare after midterms

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      AnalysisExpect the Trump-DeSantis animosity to evolve into open warfare after midtermsRichard LuscombePolls show DeSantis positioned to win re-election on Tuesday but political opponents say his focus is locked on a White House run The simmering animosity between Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor emerging as Trump’s most likely challenger for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, looks set to evolve into open warfare following the midterm elections.‘A new political hellscape’: sweeping gains for Republicans could stifle Biden’s presidencyRead morePolls show DeSantis comfortably positioned to win re-election on Tuesday but political opponents say his focus is locked on the national stage and a White House run.The two Republicans’ feuding became evident during a rally for Senate candidate Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania on Saturday, when Trump, who is expected to announce his presidential campaign imminently, introduced his new nickname for the rising conservative star: Ron DeSanctimonious.It is a tactic that has cowed previous pretenders to Trump’s crown as the Republican leader and kingmaker. In the 2016 election cycle, senior Republican hopefuls “Little Marco” Rubio, “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz and “Low Energy” Jeb Bush were derided then swept aside.“There it is, Trump at 71. Ron DeSanctimonious at 10%,” Trump said in Pennsylvania as he perused a screen showing what he claimed were approval ratings for the Republican 2024 nomination.“Mike Pence at seven. Oh, Mike’s doing better than I thought,” Trump added, mocking his former vice-president who he has castigated for refusing to endorse the lie that his 2020 defeat by Joe Biden was the result of electoral fraud.With no discernible irony, Trump called Rubio “my great friend” at a rally for the senator and other Republican candidates in Miami on Sunday, an event at which DeSantis was conspicuously absent.Until now, DeSantis and Trump have mostly kept each other at arm’s length. But clues to their fractured relationship were evident as early as August 2020, when the notoriously prickly DeSantis denounced as “a phony narrative” an assertion he was the then-president’s “yes man” in Florida.The governor subsequently criticized Trump’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, saying earlier this year he regretted “not speaking out” sooner against Trump’s call for a nationwide lockdown. In response, Trump called DeSantis “gutless” for refusing to reveal if he had been given a Covid booster vaccine.In June, Trump began readying his anti-DeSantis rhetoric, telling the New Yorker he would beat his rival in a nomination contest and claiming it was only his endorsement that revived the three-term congressman’s faltering campaign for governor in 2017.Now, with the distraction of the midterms almost out of the way, and with Trump seeking a clear run for his third presidential run as a Republican, DeSantis too has been granted a derogatory nickname.DeSantis’s apparent focus on 2024 – notwithstanding reports he has told donors he may wait until 2028, when Trump will be out of the way – became an issue during the governor’s debate in Florida last month. Charlie Crist, the Democratic nominee, repeatedly challenged DeSantis to say if he would commit to a full four-year term if re-elected.Seizing on DeSantis’s refusal to answer, Crist said: “It’s not a tough question. It’s a fair question. He won’t tell you.”DeSantis described Crist, a Republican Florida governor turned Democratic congressman, “a worn out old donkey” he was looking to “put out to pasture”.At the Miami rally on Sunday, Trump declined to criticize DeSantis again but offered only tepid support for him in Tuesday’s elections, compared to his comments about Rubio and other Republicans in congressional and state races.“You’re going to re-elect the wonderful, the great friend of mine, Marco Rubio to the United States Senate. And you are going to re-elect Ron DeSantis as your governor,” Trump said.Despite Trump’s attacks, DeSantis remains in a strong position, winning straw polls of grassroots supporters and becoming ever more visible on the national stage.According to Politico, he also has the backing for any presidential run of the Republican mega-donor Ken Griffin, who donated more than $60m to the party’s candidates during the midterms.“I don’t know what he’s going to do. It’s a huge personal decision,” Griffin said. “He has a tremendous record as governor of Florida, and our country would be well-served by him as president.”TopicsRon DeSantisDonald TrumpRepublicansUS politicsFloridaanalysisReuse this content More