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      Trump is now effectively in control of the US House of Representatives | Sidney Blumenthal

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      Trump is now effectively in control of the US House of RepresentativesSidney BlumenthalKevin McCarthy will be a mere stooge – that is, until he’s replaced by someone even more Trumpist Even before the midterm elections – when the vaunted “red wave” dried up – influential Republicans, over drinks in Washington, casually discussed the fate of Kevin McCarthy as a short-timer.The man who would be the speaker of the House had already been taking a victory lap before a single vote was counted. “I’m better prepared now,” he recently told New York magazine. “If I’m not going to be acceptable to the body having that scenario this time, no one’s acceptable,” he boasted to Punchbowl News. The failed frozen yogurt shop owner from Bakersfield, California, envisions himself at last standing as the hero of his Horatio Alger success story atop the greasy pole. McCarthy now trumpets that he has won the confidence of the far-right Freedom Caucus that previously opposed his elevation. He clutches its leader, his twitchy former foe Jim Jordan, as a great friend. “Probably my biggest advocate is Jim Jordan,” he has said.McCarthy’s bravado discloses a hint of insecurity. The talk of the steakhouses is that he will not last long.Donald Trump’s ragtag minions of horned madmen and militias could not seize the Capitol on January 6. But when the 118th Congress is sworn in on 3 January, Trump’s coup will have broken through more than a police barrier to enter a new phase. That’s because Trump will, for all intents and purposes, become the de facto speaker of the House. If and when Nancy Pelosi ever so gently passes the gavel to Kevin McCarthy, “it would be hard not to hit her with it,” McCarthy said to the raucous laughter of a Republican crowd in 2021. The ultimate power will be held in the hands of Trump. From his gilded tropical palace, he will phone dictates to Jim Jordan and other acolytes who will transform the House of Representatives into his 2024 presidential campaign committee, virtual law firm and bludgeon for revenge. The House will be his hammer.Who’s next? Republicans who might go up against Trump in 2024Read moreTrump still looms over the party, contemptuous of the bitter Republican finger-pointing blaming him for the midterm disappointment. Rupert Murdoch’s overnight order to Fox News to hype Florida Governor Ron DeSantis cannot suddenly cancel the Trump show Murdoch has been instrumental in producing, though for years he reportedly privately called him “a fucking idiot”. Trump is hardly dislodged.In the 117th Congress, 147 Republicans out of 213 refused to certify the results of the electoral college. The margin of the slim new Republican majority will uniformly be election deniers, who will pad the Freedom Caucus before which McCarthy cowers. When the “red wave” was revealed to be a mirage, while the votes were still being tallied and the House Republican majority still uncertain, representative Matt Gaetz of Florida labeled McCarthy “McFailure”, pledged his eternal fealty to Trump and called for a challenge to McCarthy as speaker. Jason Miller, a former Trump official and his echo, went on Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast to declare that if McCarthy “wants a chance of being speaker, he needs to be much more declarative of supporting President Trump”. Bannon, free on appeal from his conviction for contempt of Congress for refusing to testify before the January 6 committee, replied that “the Maga-centric nature” of the House and the Republican party would intensify.When Trump’s mob ran through the corridors of the Capitol chanting “hang Mike Pence!” and “Nancy! Nancy!” and were yards away from breaking into McCarthy’s office, he desperately reached Trump at the White House to ask him to call it off. “Well, Kevin, I guess these people are more upset about the election than you are,” Trump said, according to the journalist Robert Draper. “Am I upset? They’re trying to fucking kill me!” McCarthy shrieked. “Who the fuck do you think you are talking to?”In the days after the trauma, McCarthy raised the idea that cabinet members invoke the 25th amendment to remove Trump – then defended Trump from impeachment, which did not preclude Trump calling him a “pussy”, and on 27 January flew to Mar-a-Lago to bend his knee in supplication.McCarthy, even as he tries to balance along a fine line, chronically abases himself. Occasionally, he tries to cover his naked ambition with a transparent fig leaf. In May 2020, when Trump falsely claimed that Joe Scarborough, a former Republican congressman and an MSNBC TV host critical of Trump, had murdered a young female aide in 2001, despite being 800 miles away when she fell and fatally hit her head, McCarthy responded with a statement he must have thought displayed his political cuteness.“I was not here with Joe Scarborough,” he said. “I don’t quite know about the subject itself.”But abasement in the service of self-interest is not loyalty. Trump, who recalls every slight as lese-majesty, has taken McCarthy’s small measure as “my Kevin”. He knows that McCarthy thinks, as McCarthy blurted to the House Republican conference in 2017, that Putin “pays” Trump – “swear to God”. He will never be judged sufficiently loyal, nor trusted to do absolutely everything he’s ordered to do, especially when those orders are to lay siege to the justice department in a bid to interfere with its investigations of Trump.Kevin McCarthy’s McCarthyism, like the previous McCarthyism, is rooted in personal ambition, but in Kevin McCarthy’s case it is more motivated by a desire to to go along than by the feral instinct displayed by Joe McCarthy, with Roy Cohn whispering in his ear before he got into Trump’s.Kevin McCarthy has always known the score: that Republican mendacity, from little white lies to big lie, is born of sheer cynicism. From time to time, he inadvertently spills the beans. His impulse to babble the truth was uncontrollable in 2015, when he blabbed about the House investigation on Benghazi, revealing its political intent: “Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right? But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping.”McCarthy surely knows that the cruel Republican culture war is hypocrisy. When it comes to Trump’s handpicked senate candidate from Georgia, Herschel Walker – who is facing a runoff election with senator Raphael Warnock, and who allegedly paid for girlfriends’ abortions, allegedly abandoned both his legal and illegitimate children, and allegedly engaged in violence against his ex-wife – McCarthy has maintained radio silence.His passivity in the face of vice is the price he willingly pays to sustain the virtuous sheen of the culture war. While he advances himself through each cowardly act, his performance does not inspire confidence from his own cohort, who see through the cellophane man. He must dance faster and faster just to stand still.McCarthy will obediently issue blanket approval for House committees to launch a thousand inquisitions. Democratic groups engaged in voter turnout efforts will be investigated. Democratic attorneys who defend voting rights will be targeted. Progressive nonprofits involved with elections and criminal justice will have their nonprofit status challenged. Secretaries of state who have frustrated Trump election deniers will be pressured. Biden administration officials, from national security to homeland security, will be subpoenaed to scandalize their policies. Military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, already assailed by the Republican pro-Putin caucus, will be squeezed. No “blank check”, McCarthy has said.Corporations and banks that invest in green energy, or adopt diversity and equity policies, will be pressured. Tech platforms will be hauled before the klieg lights for depositions on alleged political discrimination against conservatives, to intimidate them into following the example of Elon Musk, who attended McCarthy’s private political retreat in Wyoming this past August. (“Elon believes in freedom. Elon is an entrepreneur. Such an American success story,” McCarthy said.)The subpoenas will fly. And, quite predictably, the House will manufacture a conflict over the federal budget to shut down the government in an attempt to enforce its draconian policies, as Republicans have done before as a tactic against Bill Clinton in 1995 to 1996 and against Barack Obama in 2013.Then the House may impeach President Biden – and possibly Vice-President Kamala Harris, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, among others. The writer Barton Gellman recently laid out the coming strategy in the Atlantic. “McCarthy wants to oversee subpoenas and Benghazi-style hearings to weaken the president ahead of the 2024 election, not issue a call for Biden’s removal,” Gellman writes. “But there is little reason to think that McCarthy can resist the GOP’s impulse to impeach once it gathers strength.”Gellman further quotes Ted Cruz, from the senator’s recent podcast, pressing for Biden’s impeachment, “whether it’s justified or not”, as payback for Trump’s two impeachments. Like many Republicans, Cruz uses the word “weaponize” in the same way that Republicans have adopted the word “grooming” to accuse public school teachers of trying to turn children transgender. “The Democrats weaponized impeachment,” said Cruz. “They used it for partisan purposes to go after Trump because they disagreed with him. And one of the real disadvantages of doing that … is the more you weaponize it and turn it into a partisan cudgel, you know, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.”After the January 6 committee is disbanded, the House judiciary committee will paint a bull’s eye on the Department of Justice (DoJ). The committee will act as Trump’s team for the defense. As the investigations circling Trump close in, from the fake electors’ scheme to the Mar-a-Lago archives theft, Trump and his allies will intensify their charges that the justice department is “weaponizing” the law. Jim Jordan will claim that the DoJ is unfairly persecuting Trump while failing to investigate properly the “Biden crime family”, only beginning with Hunter Biden.The House Republicans will demand the internal documents and sources in every case the DoJ is pursuing about Trump. When the justice department refuses to hand over materials from ongoing investigations, subpoenas will be issued for them, and when the DoJ invariably declines – because to comply would violate the law and all of its protocols – contempt charges will be filed against attorney general Merrick Garland, his deputy, Lisa Monaco, and individual prosecutors. The dismissal of those contempt filings will have no bearing on the House proceeding to the impeachment of Garland, Monaco, et al.The point for the Republicans will not necessarily be to remove Garland, which would be highly unlikely, but instead to discredit any justice department case against Trump as politically motivated, to portray Trump as the victim, and to rouse the Republican base. Most importantly, the judiciary committee interference would attempt to severely cripple the investigations.If this sounds like conjecture, consider that Jim Jordan wrote to Merrick Garland and the FBI director, Christopher Wray, on 2 November – a week before the election and under the letterhead of the judiciary committee, as if he were already the chairman – demanding information and sources in current cases involving Trump, extremist militias and far-right figures.Trump is running for president again – but these legal battles might stand in the wayRead moreIn his lengthy list of requests, he asked for “all documents and communications between or among employees of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Department of Justice, and the executive office of the president referring or relating to classifying or reclassifying domestic violent extremism cases, for the period of January 1 2020, to the present”; “all documents and communications referring or relating to the decision to seek a search warrant for President Trump’s residence”; and “all documents and communications referring or relating to the use of confidential human source(s) in connection with the search of President Trump’s residence”. Jordan followed up by releasing a dense 1,050-page compendium of conspiracy theories – 1,050 rabbit holes he promises to go down.If McCarthy exhibits the slightest queasiness, commits another of his trademark gaffes that reveal too much of the truth, or is simply not militant enough for Trump, his speakership will become unstable. The jackals already surround him, and there is a ready alternative waiting in the wings to replace him. Elise Stefanik, adored by Trump, seamlessly transmogrified from moderate to Maga, emerging as Trump’s defender during his first impeachment. “A new Republican star is born,” Trump tweeted. The 38-year-old congresswoman’s ambition is a raging fever.Once a classic Bush Republican – an assistant to George W Bush’s eminently reasonable chief of staff Josh Bolten, no less – Stefanik has since become Trump’s full-throated champion. She whipped up the purge of Liz Cheney as chair of the House Republican conference for Cheney’s heresy and engineered herself into the job, profusely praising Trump as “the leader”. This year, she introduced a resolution to expunge his second impeachment over the insurrection as “a sham smear”. Since the midterm elections, she has thrice endorsed Trump for president in 2024. The leaning tumbril awaits McCarthy too.Trump declared his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination the third time, after two impeachments and a coup attempt, one week after the Republican midterm debacle, in which many of the loyalists bearing his imprimatur fell before the voters. Nor has he been deterred by the prospect of a contest with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who, to claim the prize, would have to murder the king and be tainted with his blood.It was a grand illusion that Trump would somehow fade away, Biden restore the spirit of civility of the old Senate, and Garland prosecute the January 6 rioters to be done with the mess, shelving the whole episode as a thing of the past, with decency and the rule of law prevailing again.The Republican fear campaign in the midterm elections, projecting the menaces of inflation, crime and trans rights, will dissolve the instant the contest is over. On January 6, Trump waved his mob forward: “We’re going to walk down to the Capitol, and we’re going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women, and we’re probably not going to be cheering so much for some of them.” Trump’s coup, which has never ended, will now continue with the House of Representatives as his chief political tool.TS Eliot, in The Hollow Men, wrote:.css-f9ay0g{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C74600;}Between the ideaAnd the realityBetween the motionAnd the actFalls the ShadowOn 13 September, Trump retweeted a kitsch portrait of himself wearing a “Q” on his lapel, the symbol of the QAnon conspiracy cult that venerates him; its slogan, “The Storm Is Coming”; and the cryptic letters, “WWG1WGA”, which mean “Where We Go One, We Go All”. As Trump tweeted on 23 December 2020 to promote the January 6 insurrection: “Will be wild”.
      Sidney Blumenthal, former senior adviser to President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, has published three books of a projected five-volume political life of Abraham Lincoln: A Self-Made Man, Wrestling With His Angel and All the Powers of Earth
      TopicsDonald TrumpOpinionUS midterm elections 2022US politicsUS CongressRepublicansDemocratscommentReuse this content More

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      Republicans scrape back control of US House after midterms flop

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      Republicans scrape back control of US House after midterms flopSlim majority means any member of party sitting in House of Representatives could stymie legislation

      US midterms: results in full
      Republicans have won back control of the House of Representatives, scraping a victory from a midterm election that many had expected to be a red wave of wins but instead turned into more of a trickle.Nevertheless, the party finally won its crucial 218th seat in the lower chamber of Congress, wresting away control from the Democrats and setting the stage for a showdown with Joe Biden in the next two years of his presidency.US midterm elections results 2022: liveRead moreThe result means the end of Democrat Nancy Pelosi’s time as House speaker. She is likely to pass the gavel to the Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, who has announced his intention to take up the post.Control of the House is crucial as it will allow the Republicans to launch an array of congressional investigations into issues ranging from Biden’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan to more obviously politicised probes of government actions during the Covid pandemic and Biden’s son Hunter’s business activities.The Republican-run House is likely to be a raucous affair as its predicted slim majority means it will take only a few rebels to stymie any legislation – in effect handing great power to almost every Republican member of the House. With the Republican right full of fringe figures, including Georgia’s Marjorie Taylor Greene, that could be a recipe for chaos and the promotion of extremist beliefs and measures.Trump for 2024 would be ‘bad mistake’, Republican says as blame game deepens Read moreBiden congratulated McCarthy on the victory and said he was “ready to work with House Republicans to deliver results for working families”.“Last week’s elections demonstrated the strength and resilience of American democracy,” the president added. “There was a strong rejection of election deniers, political violence, and intimidation.”Biden and his party had gone into election day largely expecting to get a thumping from an electorate angry at high inflation that has wrought misery for millions of Americans struggling with bills and spiraling prices. Republicans had doubled down on that by running campaigns that stoked fears of violent crime and portrayed Democrats as far-left politicians out of touch with voters’ concerns.But the Democrats fought back, pointing out the extremist nature of many Republican politicians, especially a cadre of far-right figures backed by Donald Trump, and warning of the threat to US democracy they represented. They were also boosted by the backlash from the loss of federal abortion rights, taken away by a conservative-dominated supreme court.03:20The result was a shock: Democrats held up in swathes of the country and while Republicans won in some parts, such as Florida, in many other parts their candidates were defeated. High-profile Trump-backed candidates such as Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania lost their races.Meanwhile, Republican performance in the Senate was worse. Democrats retained control of the upper chamber when their incumbent senator was projected as the winner in Nevada the Saturday after election night.The remaining seat up for grabs, in Georgia, will be decided in a run-off between incumbent Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger Herschel Walker in early December after neither surpassed 50% of the vote.If Warnock wins, Democrats will enjoy a one-seat majority, 51-49, in the 100-seat senate, a small but significant improvement on the current 50-50 balance, which leaves Democrats in control because the vice-president, Kamala Harris, has the tie-breaking vote.That situation will continue if Walker wins the seat for the Republicans.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022RepublicansHouse of RepresentativesDemocratsNancy PelosiJoe BidenUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      Q&A: what does a split Congress mean for US politics?

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      ExplainerQ&A: what does a split Congress mean for US politics?With Republicans in control of the House and Democrats holding the Senate, expect a legislative logjam Republicans officially captured control of the House on Wednesday, as the Associated Press called the 218th seat for the party. The House victory ends four years of Democratic control of the lower chamber, handing Republicans the speakership and the chairmanships of key committees, while Democrats will maintain control of the Senate.But the incoming Republican speaker has the unenviable task of attempting to pass legislation with a very narrow majority, where only a few defections within the party will be enough to kill a bill.Republicans had hoped that a “red wave” in the midterm elections would allow them to flip dozens of House seats, giving them a much more comfortable majority. Instead, Republicans were barely about to flip the House, and Democrats may even be able to increase their Senate majority depending on the results of the Georgia runoff next month.With the House and the Senate now both called, Washington is bracing for at least two years of split control of Congress. Here’s what we can expect. :Will Congress be able to pass any bills?It will be extremely difficult for Democrats to advance their legislative agenda. Republicans can use their majority power to block any bills passed by the Democratic Senate from even getting a vote on the House floor.Since Joe Biden took office, some notable bills have passed the House with bipartisan support, including the infrastructure law that the president signed late last year. But the new Republican speaker will probably be hesitant to hand Biden and his party any more policy wins before the 2024 presidential race, which could result in a legislative logjam.How will Republicans use their House majority?Given their very narrow majority, House Republicans may have trouble advancing major legislation through the chamber. Even if they are able to pass something, the bill would almost certainly fail in the Democratic Senate, so it seems likely House Republicans will focus most of their attention on investigations and executive oversight.Even before polls closed last Tuesday, House Republicans had outlined plans to launch a series of investigations into the Biden administration and members of the president’s family. Republican members have expressed keen interest in investigating the administration’s handling of the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden’s oversight of the US-Mexican border and his son Hunter’s overseas business dealings.Some of the far-right members of the House Republican caucus have also threatened to use their new majority to hold up must-pass bills, including a debt ceiling hike. If the debt ceiling – essentially, the maximum amount the US government can borrow – is not raised, it could jeopardize the entire US economy. Some House Republicans have signaled they want to withhold support for a debt ceiling increase until they secure concessions on government spending and entitlement programs.The new House Republican majority could also threaten proposals to send more military aid to Ukraine amidst its war against Russia. The far-right congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has said that “not another penny will go to Ukraine” once Republicans take control, alarming Ukraine’s allies on Capitol Hill and abroad. With such a narrow majority, it only takes a few votes to block bills.Who will replace Nancy Pelosi as House speaker?That is a question that many House Republicans are asking themselves right now as well. The obvious frontrunner for the role – which oversees, manages and directs the majority party in the House – is Kevin McCarthy, the California Republican who has served as House minority leader since 2019.But McCarthy has faced some dissent from within his own caucus, and it remains unclear whether he can get the 218 votes needed to become speaker. On Tuesday, the House Republican caucus easily nominated McCarthy as their speaker candidate, but 31 members cast ballots for the far-right Arizona lawmaker Andy Biggs. That tally could spell disaster for McCarthy when the full floor vote is held in January.“My position remains the same until further notice – no one has 218 (or close, as needed),” Chip Roy, a member of the far-right Freedom Caucus who nominated Biggs, told the Texas Tribune on Tuesday. “We have to sit down and establish the fundamental changes needed.”How will Biden work with the new Republican speaker?Before becoming president, Biden built a reputation in the Senate for his ability to reach across the aisle and strike compromise with his Republican colleagues. During the 2020 Democratic primary, Biden boasted about how he was even able to work with hardline segregationists such as James Eastland and Strom Thurmond. Those comments, meant to demonstrate Biden’s collaborative nature, outraged many Democratic primary voters.But in recent months, Biden has become increasingly vocal in his criticism of the modern Republican party, which he says is beholden to Donald Trump and hostile to democratic principles. “Donald Trump and the Maga Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic,” Biden said in September.McCarthy has responded to Biden’s criticism by accusing the president of having “chosen to divide, demean, and disparage his fellow Americans … simply because they disagree with his policies”.So if McCarthy does manage to capture the speakership, he and Biden will not be starting off their new relationship on the best footing. When a reporter asked Biden last week about his relationship with McCarthy, the president deflected.“I think he’s the Republican leader, and I haven’t had much of [an] occasion to talk to him,” Biden replied. “But I will be talking to him.”What can Democrats get done without control of the House?Democrats’ continued control of the Senate ensures that they will still be able to approve Biden’s cabinet and judicial nominations. Their Senate majority will allow Democrats to install more liberal judges in key posts, and it could give them the ability to fill another supreme court seat if one opens up in the next two years.But overall, Democrats’ best opportunity to enact change between now and 2024 may come down to the power of the executive. Biden has already signed more than 100 executive orders since becoming president, according to the Presidency Project at University of California Santa Barbara.Biden has used executive orders to overturn some of Trump’s most controversial policies, such as halting funding for construction of a wall at the US-Mexican border, and to advance progressive proposals that would otherwise stall in Congress. Biden’s order to provide student debt relief of up to $20,000 for millions of borrowers was celebrated by the president’s progressive allies, although the policy is now facing legal challenges.With Republicans now in control of the House, Biden could soon be reaching for his executive pen more frequently.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US CongressRepublicansDemocratsUS politicsHouse of RepresentativesUS SenateexplainersReuse this content More

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      Republicans are already fighting with each other as they take House control

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      AnalysisRepublicans are already fighting with each other as they take House controlMartin PengellyControlling an unruly party with an extremely narrow majority will all but guarantee brutal tests every day Even before Republicans took the House of Representatives, leading figures on the right of the party pointed to troubled waters ahead for Kevin McCarthy – or whoever else becomes the next House speaker.Now Republicans have won their slim victory in the lower chamber of Congress, the next two years are likely to be chaotic. Controlling an unruly party with an extremely narrow majority will all but guarantee brutal tests every day, especially from the right wing.Fighting among Republicans over who leads the House is already in full swing. On Tuesday, Clay Higgins of Louisiana, a member of the hard-right Freedom Caucus, would not tell Politico if he would back McCarthy.But Higgins did say: “The speaker of the House, whomever he or she is, will be required to recognise the center of gravity of the conference itself. And the Freedom Caucus has moved that center of gravity to the right.”Andy Biggs, a Freedom Caucus member from Arizona and an ardent backer of Donald Trump’s electoral fraud lie, challenged McCarthy, now minority leader, to be the Republican nominee for speaker.“My bid to run for speaker is about changing the paradigm and the status quo,” Biggs tweeted, adding: “McCarthy does not have the votes needed to become the next speaker of the House and his speakership should not be a foregone conclusion.”Biggs did not have the votes in secret leadership ballots on Tuesday, losing 188-31 to McCarthy. But the speaker’s role will not be decided till January and any candidate for speaker must attract 218 votes. That is a simple House majority, not confined to party lines, but Republicans are set to hold power by not much more and McCarthy must now win over his skeptics.Backstage manoeuvers are in full swing. On Tuesday a moderate Democrat, Henry Cuellar of Texas, confirmed that consultants allied to McCarthy had been seeking his vote, via a switch to become a Republican.The Republican party is in flux, after a predicted midterms “red wave” failed to materialize and with leaders under fire from all directions, each faction seeking to identify what went wrong and set course for the next two years.Another prominent rightwinger, Matt Gaetz of Florida, is among those demanding aggressive action against Democrats, including investigations of Hunter Biden, the coronavirus response and immigration policy and swift impeachment of Joe Biden.On Monday, Gaetz said of McCarthy: “I’m not voting for him tomorrow. I’m not voting for him on the floor. And I am certain that there is a critical mass of people who hold my precise view.”On Tuesday, after McCarthy’s party vote victory, Gaetz told reporters the current minority leader “couldn’t get 218 votes, he couldn’t get 200 votes, he couldn’t get 190 votes today, so to believe that Kevin McCarthy is going to be speaker, you have to believe he’s going to get votes in the next six weeks that he couldn’t get in six years”.Illustrating party ferment, however, an equally visible and extreme provocateur, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, has taken an opposing view.03:20Speaking to the former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, Greene said denying McCarthy the speaker’s gavel would be “bad strategy when we’re looking at having a very razor-thin majority”.McCarthy has confirmed that if made speaker, he will restore to Greene committee assignments Democrats stripped over her extremist views and behaviour.Greene also pointed to an outlandish idea, nonetheless circulating on Capitol Hill, that moderate Republicans could join with Democrats and install Liz Cheney, an anti-Trump conservative, as speaker.Greene said: “We’ve already been through two years where we saw Republicans – Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger – cross over and join the Democrats and produce a January 6 committee.“The danger is this: do we want to watch a challenge for speaker of the House simply because the ‘Never Kevin’ movement – just like we’ve seen a ‘Never Trump’ movement – do we want to see that challenge open the door to Nancy Pelosi handing the gavel to Liz Cheney?”Cheney will soon leave the House, having lost her Wyoming primary to a Trump-backed challenger. But the speaker of the House does not have to be a member of Congress, hence a previous fringe idea that Republicans could put Trump in the role.On Monday, Don Bacon, a Republican moderate from Nebraska, told NBC News “Cheney for speaker” was a non-starter. But he also said that if his party paralysed itself with partisan infighting, he would work with Democrats to install a moderate Republican speaker.“I will support Kevin McCarthy,” he said. “But … I do want the country to work and we need to govern. We can’t sit neutral. We can’t have total gridlock for two years.”TopicsRepublicansHouse of RepresentativesUS politicsanalysisReuse this content More

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      Same-sex marriage bill clears key Senate hurdle as Republicans on brink of House majority – live

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      The Senate voted to move forward with the Respect for Marriage Act, which would codify the right of same sex couples to marry. Twelve Republicans voted with Democrats to move the bill forward, and a final vote could come this week. The bill, which already passed the Democratic-controlled house with the votes of 47 Republicans, gained momentum after Justice Clarence Thomas suggested, after the overturning of Roe v Wade, that the right to same sex marriage could come under threat. The Respect for Marriage Act will “make our country a better, fairer place to live,” said Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, who also mentioned that his daughter and her wife are expecting a baby next year.Yesterday, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has voiced support for a Senate bill which would protect same-sex marriage, saying LGBTQ+ individuals are entitled to rights even while affirming its belief that same-sex relationships are a sin.“The doctrine of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints related between a man and a woman is well-known and will remain unchanged.” the church said in a statement on Tuesday.“We are grateful for the continuing efforts of those who work to ensure the Respect for Marriage Act includes appropriate religious freedom protections while respecting the law and preserving the rights of our LGBTQ+ brothers and sisters.”The Senate is set to vote on Wednesday on the Respect for Marriage Act, which will repeal a Clinton-era law that defines marriage as a relationship between a man and a woman. The bill also prohibits states from denying out-of-state marriage licenses and benefits on the basis of sex, race, ethnicity or national origin.While the church has a long history of opposing same-sex relationships – it spent $20m trying to pass proposition 8 in California, a 2008 measure which banned same-sex marriage in the state – it has taken a more relaxed view of same-sex marriage in recent years.In 2016, the church said that it welcomed members who identified as LGBTQ+, though it reiterated its stance that marriage is between a man and a woman.In 2019, the church repealed a 2015 rule that banned baptisms for children of gay parents and said gay marriage is a sin worth expulsion from the church. At the time, the church said same-sex relationships were still a “serious transgression”.“As we work together to preserve the principles and practices of religious freedom together with the rights of LGBTQ+ individuals, much can be accomplished to heal relationships and foster greater understanding,” the church said on Tuesday.In a statement, Troy Williams, executive director of Equality Utah, said: “We are heartened to see the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints support the bipartisan Respect for Marriage Act. Despite differences we may have, we can always discover common ground on laws that support the strengthening of all families.”Read more: Mormon church voices support for Senate bill to protect gay marriageRead moreThe Senate voted to move forward with the Respect for Marriage Act, which would codify the right of same sex couples to marry. Twelve Republicans voted with Democrats to move the bill forward, and a final vote could come this week. The bill, which already passed the Democratic-controlled house with the votes of 47 Republicans, gained momentum after Justice Clarence Thomas suggested, after the overturning of Roe v Wade, that the right to same sex marriage could come under threat. The Respect for Marriage Act will “make our country a better, fairer place to live,” said Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, who also mentioned that his daughter and her wife are expecting a baby next year.With Republicans poised to gain control of the House, speculation is swirling that the current Democratic speaker Nancy Pelosi will use the opportunity to leave her leadership position in the party.She had previously said she would step down as party leader at the end of this year, although lately hasn’t said whether she will stick to that commitment. Punchbowl News now reports that Pelosi has told California’s congressional delegation she will soon make a decision about her future in the party. Besides political considerations, Pelosi is also dealing with the aftermath of the attack on her husband Paul Pelosi, and said that will factor in her calculations.Besides staying in her leadership post – albeit with the Democrats likely in the minority – The New York Times reported yesterday 82-year-old Pelosi could also choose to leave leadership and play something of an informal advisory role to House Democrats.Mike Pence has continued his campaign of mild-mannered condemnation of Donald Trump, this time in an interview with the Associated Press.Close readers of this blog will note that Pence was on Fox News this morning, where he signaled little enthusiasm for Trump’s return to the campaign trail. If you’re wondering why the former vice-president is doing so many interviews, it’s because he just released a book about his time serving as Trump’s deputy, and also is thought to be considering his own presidential run.Anyway, back to the interview with the AP. In it, Pence reiterates his feeling that the Republicans can find a better nominee than Trump:Former Vice President Mike Pence, in an @AP interview, shared his reaction to Donald Trump’s 2024 reelection bid.”I have a genuine sense that the American people are looking for new leadership,” he said. pic.twitter.com/c9Yqy8f8dr— The Associated Press (@AP) November 16, 2022
      He also reflects on his experience during the January 6 attack, when Trump’s supporters attacked the Capitol while Pence was inside:Former Vice President Mike Pence criticized President Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection.”The president’s words were reckless, and they endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol building,” he said. #TheAPInterview pic.twitter.com/kAGQiit0Fm— The Associated Press (@AP) November 16, 2022
      An Illinois man who pled guilty to assaulting a police officer and a journalist during the January 6 insurrection is now facing felony murder charges after allegedly killing a woman in a wrong-way crash, the Associated Press reports.Shane Jason Woods was to be sentenced on 13 January of next year after pleading guilty to ramming a Capitol police officer into a bicycle barricade and tackling a reporter during the assault by Donald Trump’s supporters nearly two years ago.On 8 November, prosecutors allege Woods drove his pickup truck onto the wrong lane of an Illinois interstate and crashed into oncoming traffic, killing a 35-year-old woman from North Carolina. Here’s more from the AP:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Woods has been indicted on felony counts of first-degree murder, aggravated driving under the influence of alcohol and aggravated fleeing and eluding a peace officer and is being held in Sangamon County Jail, according to a press release from the county’s state’s attorney’s office. Woods’ bond is set at $2 million, but the county filed a petition to deny bail.
      “The evidence will show the Defendant made numerous statements before and after the fatal collision on Interstate 55 which establish his intent to enter upon the highway for the purpose of striking another vehicle,” the petition said.
      The sentence for first-degree murder in Illinois is 20 years to life in state prison.
      It was not immediately clear who is representing Woods in the case. Dwight Crawley, Woods’ defense attorney for the U.S. Capitol riot case, did not immediately return a call requesting comment.Kevin McCarthy granted Donald Trump a boon in the weeks after the January 6 insurrection, standing beside him at his Mar-a-Lago club in a visit that made clear Trump still had the support of Republicans in Congress.One might think McCarthy would be quick to endorse him, now that Trump is running for the White House again. NBC News reports that is apparently not the case:House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy did not respond when asked by @scottwongDC if he was prepared to endorse former President Trump. Listen: pic.twitter.com/NtI6byNUKz— Kyle Stewart (@KyleAlexStewart) November 16, 2022
      Another former Donald Trump official has made his displeasure with the ex-president’s run for office known.While he doesn’t mention him by name, Mike Pompeo, who served as secretary of state from 2018 until the end of Trump’s term and is thought to be considering his own campaign for the White House, tweeted this out today:We need more seriousness, less noise, and leaders who are looking forward, not staring in the rearview mirror claiming victimhood.— Mike Pompeo (@mikepompeo) November 16, 2022
      Pompeo’s use of the word “victimhood” is telling. In his announcement speech last night, Trump at one point said, “I’m a victim”:”I’m a victim. I will tell you. I’m a victim” — Trump pic.twitter.com/ietvHhTG2c— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 16, 2022
      Rick Scott has reacted to his loss after failing to unseat Mitch McConnell as the Republican leader in the Senate.“Today marks the beginning of a new era in the Senate Republican Conference,” the Florida lawmakers says in a statement that mostly sticks to boilerplate rhetoric common the GOP. “Although the results of today’s elections weren’t what we hoped for, this is far from the end of our fight to Make Washington Work,” he said, before turning his attention to Joe Biden and his “reckless government spending and the devastating inflation Democrats have caused.”“I could not be more grateful for the support I’ve received from many of my colleagues and from Americans across our great country. I never thought for a moment that this fight would be easy, but I’m optimistic that, together, Republicans can rescue America with the principles that unite us against the dangerous path Democrats have set it on,” Scott concludes.Could Donald Trump actually win the Republican nomination in 2024? The prevailing wisdom, today at least, is probably not. Our columnist Lloyd Green, however, warns anyone reveling in Trump’s difficulties not to be so sure…“For the moment, Ron DeSantis has the wind at his back. He is a sitting governor who won re-election by nearly 20 points. Along the way, he absorbed Trump’s message and adopted parts of his mien – without being labeled unhinged.“Yet even if DeSantis emerges as the nominee, victory could be pyrrhic. If past is prelude, Trump could label his own defeat the product of a rigged system and invite his loyalists to sit out the general election. After he lost the Iowa caucus in 2016, he did just that. He blamed his second-place finish there on what he called cheating by Ted Cruz.“‘You know, at the end of the day I would just tell people to go check out the scoreboard from last Tuesday night,’ DeSantis insisted as the clock ticked down to Trump’s announcement. The governor is expected to announce his candidacy early next year. Others may well join the fray.“Whether the Department of Justice indicts Trump is the great unanswered question. Hours before the announcement, Allen Weisselberg, the Trump Organization’s former chief financial officer, took the witness stand in the criminal case against the company.“The game is on.”Trump is back but his chances look bleak – at least for now | Lloyd GreenRead moreThe House rules committee heard testimony today about the prospect of sitting a delegate from the Cherokee Nation of Oklahoma – a US government promise unfulfilled for nearly 200 years.The principle chief of the 440,000-member Cherokee Nation, Chuck Hoskin, was among those to testify. He is behind the attempt to seat Kimberly Teehee, a former adviser to Barack Obama.As described by the Associated Press, “the tribe’s right to a delegate is detailed in the Treaty of New Echota, signed in 1835, which provided the legal basis for the forced removal of the Cherokee Nation from its ancestral homelands east of the Mississippi river and led to the Trail of Tears, but it has never been exercised. A separate treaty in 1866 affirmed this right.”As described by the National Parks Service, the Trail of Tears involved “the forced westward migration of American Indian tribes from the south and south-east”, resulting in “4,000 Cherokee deaths on the way to present-day Oklahoma”.In Congress today, Hoskin said: “The Cherokee Nation has in fact adhered to our obligations under these treaties. I’m here to ask the United States to do the same.”The AP continues: “Hoskin also suggested Teehee could be seated this year by way of either a resolution or change in statute. The committee chairman, the Massachusetts Democrat James McGovern, and other members supported the idea. McGovern said:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}This can and should be done as quickly as possible. The history of this country is a history of broken promise after broken promise to Native American communities. This cannot be another broken promise.“McGovern said he has been contacted by the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma and the Delaware Nation, both of which have treaties with the US government that call for representation in Congress. McGovern also noted there are two other federally recognized bands of Cherokee Indians that argue they should be considered successors to the 1835 treaty: the United Keetoowah Band of Cherokee Indians in Oklahoma and the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians based in North Carolina.“Members of the committee seemed to be in agreement that any delegate from the Cherokee Nation would be similar to delegates from the District of Columbia, Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa and the Virgin Islands. These delegates are assigned to committees and can submit amendments to bills, but cannot vote for final passage of bills. Puerto Rico is represented by a non-voting resident commissioner who is elected every four years.”Mitch McConnell has as expected beaten a challenge for the leadership of the Republican party in the Senate, the Washington Post reports.As the Post puts it, the Kentucky senator “turned back a challenge from Senator Rick Scott of Florida, after the party failed to pick up seats in the chamber in the midterm elections [last week].“Some senators sought unsuccessfully to delay the vote to give them more time to assess the GOP’s dismal performance. McConnell has led Senate Republicans since 2007. Scott helmed the campaign committee tasked with electing more Republicans.”What the Post pleasingly calls “machinations” among Senate Republicans echo those in the House, where yesterday Kevin McCarthy survived a challenge to be the Republican nominee for speaker, should as is overwhelmingly likely the GOP take control of that chamber.McCarthy will have a lot more to do in that instance, needing 218 votes but facing a restive far-right wing of an increasingly far-right party, some of whom, such as Matt Gaetz of Florida, have said they won’t support him whatever concessions he offers.Of course, this is politics so that could change in a moment. One thing not changing for the moment is McConnell’s grip on Senate Republicans. He won Wednesday’s vote 37-10.As Punchbowl News put it this morning, before the Scott vote, “the 80-year-old McConnell is on the verge of breaking the late Democratic Montana senator Mike Mansfield’s record for the longest-serving party leader in Senate history..css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}McConnell will reach that milestone in January. McConnell is acutely aware of this record – and his place in Senate history. Yet McConnell and his allies hoped he would be doing it as majority leader, especially with a very favorable Senate map heading into this cycle.”By January McConnell and the rest of us will know if he will operate for the next two years in a 50-50 Senate, controlled by Kamala Harris as vice-president, or a 51-49 Senate in Democrats’ favour. The Georgia runoff between the Trump-backed Republican Herschel Walker and the Democratic incumbent, Raphael Warnock, will take place on 6 December.Donald Trump is back on the campaign trail, although it is most certainly not 2015. The former president’s announcement last night is being greeted with skepticism by several Republicans, some of whom worked with him, while his daughter Ivanka Trump has opted to stay out of politics this time around. In Washington, Republicans are waiting to learn if they won control of the House, while the Senate is teeing up a vote on a bill to ensure same-sex marriages continue.Here’s what else is happening today:
      Georgia’s Senate race is a “toss-up,” the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato says. The contest between Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker goes to voters on 6 December.
      The 14th amendment bars Trump from holding office again because of his actions on January 6, a Democratic congressman argues.
      The New York Post roasted Trump’s campaign announcement, in another sign the Murdochs may be abandoning the ex-president.
      How exactly would the Respect for Marriage Act (RFMA) work? Slate has the answers in this illuminating piece.The bill is a two-pronged attempt to preserve existing same-sex marriages and allow new couples of the same gender to continue to marry, even if the supreme court overturns Obergefell v Hodges. The proposal first does that by getting rid of a federal law targeting same-sex couples, according to Slate:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}What the RFMA does not do is “codify” Obergefell, as many media outlets have inaccurately reported. So it’s worth delving into the details to understand precisely how this landmark legislation operates. Keep in mind that its central provisions will only become relevant if the Supreme Court overturns its marriage equality decisions. The RFMA will benefit same-sex couples if, and only if, SCOTUS overrules the right to equal marriage.
      Start with the easy part: The RFMA repeals the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), a 1996 law that bars the federal government from recognizing same-sex marriages. It replaces DOMA with a requirement that the federal government recognize any marriage that was “valid in the place where entered into.” So if a same-sex couple obtains a valid marriage license from any state, the federal government must recognize their union.The second part of the bill requires states to recognize same-sex marriage licenses even if they – in a post-Obergefell world – decide not to issue them:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Turn now to the second prong of the bill: Its requirement that every state recognize a valid same-sex marriage. It’s this provision that has upset some progressives, because it does not go as far as Obergefell. In that decision, the Supreme Court directed every state to license same-sex marriages—that is, to issue a marriage certificate to same-sex couples. The RFMA does not codify this component of Obergefell. Instead, it directs every state to recognize every same-sex marriage that “is valid in the State where the marriage was entered into.”
      So the RFMA does not force Texas to issue a marriage certificate to a same-sex couple. But it does force Texas to recognize a marriage certificate issued to a same-sex couple by New Mexico. In a post-Obergefell world, a same-sex couple in Texas could drive to New Mexico, obtain a certificate, and force Texas to respect their marriage like any other.This legislation doesn’t just address same-sex couples, but also interracial marriages, which were prohibited in parts of the United States before a 1967 supreme court decision. The RFMA would ensure those continue to be allowed as well:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Finally, the bill applies equally to same-sex marriages and interracial marriages. Since no states have expressed interest in reviving anti-miscegenation laws, this component is also largely symbolic. But it does protect interracial couples if the Supreme Court were to overturn Loving v. Virginia, which was rooted in the same constitutional principles as Obergefell.The Senate is expected to vote today on the Respect for Marriage Act codifying the right of same-sex couples to marry, after the legislation appeared to receive enough Republican support to overcome a filibuster.The bill already passed the Democratic-controlled house with the votes of 47 Republicans, but it’s been an open question whether enough GOP lawmakers would vote for the measure in the Senate. Axios reports that North Carolina Republican Thom Tillis is optimistic about its passage:GOP Sen. Thom Tillis on Respect for Marriage Act cloture vote this afternoon: “I feel that we have the votes to pass.” https://t.co/2jLgoM2nnq— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) November 16, 2022
      The ability for same-sex couples to marry was created by the 2015 supreme court case Obergefell v Hodges. In June, rightwing justice Clarence Thomas suggested that precedent could be revisited by the court, which is now firmly in the grips of conservative justices. That lead to the push to enact a law that would ensure people of the same gender are allowed to marry, even if Obergefell is overturned.Donald Trump’s presidential announcement may have fueled talk of 2024, but keep in mind that the 2022 election season isn’t over yet.Ballots are still being counted in House races, while Georgia still needs to vote in the runoff for its Senate seat. The election won’t decide the control of the chamber – that’s already guaranteed to Democrats – but the 6 December polls will give Joe Biden’s allies an opportunity to boost their margins in the Senate, should Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock win another term. If he’s ousted by Republican challenger Herschel Walker, the GOP will have an even better shot at taking back control in 2024, when several Democratic senators considered vulnerable are up for reelection.University of Virginia polling guru Larry Sabato has released a new analysis of the race, moving it into the “toss-up” column from its previous “leans Republican” rating given before last week’s elections. Beyond just helping Democrats with their task of keeping the chamber in 2024, Sabato notes that having an extra seat will allow them to run the Senate more smoothly, since they’ll have an outright majority, rather than a 50-50 split with Vice-President Kamala Harris breaking ties. That has implications for committee business, as well as approving judges and other executive nominees – which will likely become even more of a priority for the Senate’s Democratic leadership if the GOP takes the House.If you want to read more of Sabato’s thoughts, the link is here. More

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      Trump re-enters the battleground for the presidency: Politics Weekly America – podcast

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      Donald Trump has announced his third run for president, and not all Republicans are happy about it. Not only have there been a string of midterm losses by candidates he handpicked and supported – but in the background, federal and state authorities are investigating Trump’s personal, political and financial conduct.
      This week, Jonathan Freedland speaks to the political columnist Jonathan Martin of Politico and unpacks how the Republican party can finally break away from Trump’s legacy

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      Trump’s eternal quest for attention has led to the announcement of a presidential bid | Rebecca Solnit

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      Trump’s eternal quest for attention has led to the announcement of a presidential bidRebecca SolnitPundits who prophesied Trump will ride high seemingly forgot that the wheel that turns up, also turns down – and the midterms proved it The incredible shrinking Trump announced, in the most predictable news of the year, that he’s running for president again. In his eternal quest for attention, he had to be dissuaded from doing it before the recent election, so he wouldn’t do what he most aspires to do, which is to steal attention from everyone else, including the candidates in the party he may or may not still head but definitely disrupted. He would like lots more attention from you and me and everyone else, and he would also like some qualified immunity from all the criming he did during his last presidency. By the way, he stole a lot of classified documents and tried to steal an election and there should be lots of legal consequences for both of those more newsworthy things, though I wouldn’t bet on that. I’d much rather talk about everyone and anyone else, but within the parameters of this assignment I will have to talk about them talking about Trump. There was a whole fear-intoxicated storm of regular people worrying about Trump running again as soon as he’d lost in 2020, their apparent assumption being that nothing much would change in the political landscape and his standing in it over the next four years – even though he’d just lost by seven million votes, a remarkable achievement for a sitting president. Paid pundits who believe they can prophesy the future also tend to believe it will look just like the present, only more so – hello, “red wave,” which turned out to be a bunch of people in red Maga hats waving bye. Trump announces 2024 run nearly two years after inspiring deadly Capitol riotRead moreThe road we’re on is not linear; you’re probably dizzy like me from the hairpin turns and the precipices. People fall off it all the time into the abyss below, as one does when driving a straight line on a curving road. The pundits apparently assumed that Trump’s once-strong standing was permanent, but while true-believer Maga folks keep buying what Trump is selling, a lot of other people who tried out what was on offer have moved on, including Rupert Murdoch. Meanwhile, by demanding Republican politicians demonstrate loyalty to himself and his Big Lie, Trump has managed to splinter a political party once renowned for its internal discipline. “We underperformed among independents and moderates,” said former senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, “because their impression of many of the people in our party and leadership roles is that they are involved in chaos and negativity and excessive attacks.” The Washington Post yesterday referred to what’s going on in the Grand Old Party as a “full scale brawl,” though I thought the brawl/frat party was 2017-2021, and this is the bickering and the hangover. There is only one unchangeable fact in politics and life in general and you could fold in evolutionary biology and economics and the leftovers in your refrigerator: things change. Medieval philosophers were fond of the image of the wheel of fortune, which was an allegory of fickle fate before it was a game show: those who rode the wheel up eventually ride the wheel down. They do. I give you tech’s latest whiz kid, crypto-mogul Sam Bankman-Fried (who just reportedly changed his own net worth from $10 billion to $0 while also losing many billions of other people’s money in investments he managed). Let me offer as well the shrunken valuation of Tesla, Meta (aka Facebook), Amazon (first corporation to lose a trillion in value), Alphabet (aka Google), Microsoft, and all the rest. It’s time for Democrats to move past Trump | Samuel MoynRead moreThings change, but apparently a lot of tech companies did business as though low interest rates were eternal and then, surprise, they went up and stocks went down. People invested in cryptocurrency as though it was only going to go up, and then speaking of surprising, the wheel turned, and a lot of them rode all the way down into the mire. When they get there, they can say hi to Elizabeth Holmes, former CEO of Theranos, now awaiting her prison sentence, and former Trump campaign heads Paul Manafort, serving seven and a half years, and Steve Bannon, appealing his four-month sentence. Wheels turn. At least the Dutch tulip bubble left people with tulips. By the way, climate is much more important than all of this and all of them. The same day that Trump begged for attention to his unsurprising ambitions in Florida, Allen H Weisselberg, the Trump Organization’s chief financial officer announced in a New York City courtroom that the Trumps bought him a cake (“a small cake,” he insisted) when his plea deal for fraud was finalized earlier this year. The same day Trump and Weisselberg made their announcements, Kevin D Williamson announced in a New York Times editorial that Trump could win in 2024. The piece featured the kind of loopy illogic white male conservatives writing for the New York Times specialize in: “Because American politics has been so dominated by an entertainer, the most inevitable thing in the world is a sequel” it began. Trump had his go at a second season and lost by seven million votes. Stewing in his own bile and venom in his soon-to-be-devoured-by-sea-level-rise Florida folly is the sequel. Being blamed for the midterms’ blue wave is the sequel. Backing Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker and Blake Masters for the senate and a bunch of Big Lie candidates for secretary of state, who also lost, is the sequel. Having Fox News recently feature a chyron that says, “Democrats see Trump as easiest to beat” is the sequel. So bring it on, desperate grasp for a third season. It’s not like this is some perennially beloved game show, like Wheel of Fortune though there are still chances it’s “America’s biggest loser.”
      Rebecca Solnit is a Guardian US columnist. Her most recent books are Recollections of My Nonexistence and Orwell’s Roses
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      Wednesday briefing: Trump announces his third presidential bid – but can he win?

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      Wednesday briefing: Trump announces his third presidential bid – but can he win?In today’s newsletter: The former president wants to make American great again … again. Here’s what he said, how it was received and what the arguments are for and against – gulp – Trump 2024

      Sign up here for our daily newsletter, First Edition
      Good morning. To many observers in the Republican party, Donald Trump was the single biggest drag on their hugely disappointing performance in last week’s US midterm elections. Trump has listened, weighed the available evidence, undertaken a searching examination of his own role in the debacle, and – you are not going to believe this – concluded that he disagrees. Instead, he told an enthusiastic audience at Mar-a-Lago overnight, “in order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States.”Persuaded of his own magnificence though Trump is, there are many good reasons to think that his return is extremely bad news for the Republican party. And yet. With the help of the Guardian US reporting team, today’s newsletter will run you through what the former president said, how it was received and what the arguments are for and against – gulp – Trump 2024. That’s after the headlines.Five big stories
      Russia | Joe Biden has said that a missile that landed in Poland killing two people on Tuesday was “unlikely” to have been fired from Russia due to its trajectory. Amid alarm over at the implications of any attack on Nato territory, Moscow has denied responsibility, while Poland would only say that the missiles appeared to be “Russian-made”.
      Cop27 | Fear of countries backsliding on their commitments to tackle the climate crisis dominated the Cop27 UN climate talks in Egypt on Tuesday, as the first tentative drafts started to emerge of key potential decisions. Documents and proposals seen by the Guardian showed some countries attempting to unpick agreements and water down commitments.
      Housing | The death of Awaab Ishak, an “engaging, lively, endearing” two-year-old, was a result of chronic mould in his family’s social housing flat in Rochdale, an inquest said. The coroner said Awaab’s tragic death should be a “defining moment” for the housing sector.
      G20 | Rishi Sunak will extend Britain’s hand to China for the first time in almost five years, asking for closer relations on energy and the economy in a meeting with president Xi Jinping on Tuesday. The move risks a backlash from Conservative MPs who have had sanctions imposed upon them by Beijing.
      Egypt | Alaa Abd el-Fattah, the British-Egyptian democracy activist in jail in Egypt, has said in a letter to his family that he has ended his six-month hunger strike.
      In depth: ‘It feels very strange to be back here again’Trump’s advisers had hoped his speech might be limited to 45 minutes: in the event, he continued for more than an hour. David Smith sent a voice note from the Mar-a-Lago ballroom shortly after he finished. Trump’s confirmation of his intention to run “prompted an eruption of cheers and whistles from several hundred guests under the crystal chandeliers,” he said, but “apart from that I think the general consensus here is that it was a pretty low energy speech … unusually for anyone who’s been to one of his rallies, it was at times quite boring.”There were some characteristically wild moments, like his vow that drug dealers will “receive the death penalty for their heinous acts”. But overall, David said, “I did not see much at Mar-a-Lago tonight that is going to rattle Joe Biden or potential Republican rivals in the primary.” You can read David’s sketch, in which he compares Trump to “an ageing champ returning to centre court only to find he’s holding a wooden racket,” here.It feels “very strange to be back here again”, said Guardian US political correspondent Lauren Gambino. After disappointing midterm results, “there are all these questions about what the future of the party should look like, and he’s just really pulling them back to 2020”.Here are some arguments for and against Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination.Why Trump’s not the force he was1 He was a drag on Republicans in the midtermsIf ideological or ethical concerns have never been enough to wean the GOP off Trump, cold electoral arithmetic might be. The party has now failed in three elections in a row with him as its figurehead. In a midterm year which by any historic guide should have been a success for the “out” party, Republicans failed to capture the Senate and will only squeak the narrowest of victories in the House of Representatives.Trump ignored those disappointments, instead celebrating: “Nancy Pelosi has been fired. Isn’t that nice?” But whatever he says, it looks as if his influence was a crucial reason for the failure. In this analysis for the Washington Post, Philip Wallach, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, writes that in competitive races, candidates with Trump endorsements fared around seven percentage points worse than those he didn’t support.2 He’s lost important support in the media and party establishmentUntil recently, Trump could count on the near-unanimous backing of the conservative media in the US. Now, as Adam Gabbatt writes in his analysis of rightwing media coverage, there have been signs that Rupert Murdoch’s empire may have turned on the former president, who was branded “Trumpty Dumpty” by the New York Post and called “the Republican party’s biggest loser” by the Wall Street Journal.On Fox News last night, Adam writes, “it seemed that not everyone was ready to let Trump go”. But there were still nuances to the coverage which would once have been unimaginable.“Fox News has been tied so closely to Trump for so long that an immediate ditching was always unlikely – but there were some small signs through the evening that perhaps they’re pulling away,” Adam said in a voice note. He pointed to an interview with possible rival Mike Pence, a “quite subdued” appearance from longtime supporter Sean Hannity, and the decision to cut away from Trump’s speech to analysis even as it continued.“I think in previous years if Trump had a big announcement to make at 9 o’clock, that’s, like, three hours of Fox News coverage sorted – just Trump, Trump, Trump. It wasn’t that.”It’s not just the media: for one example of how the party establishment feels more able to take on Trump, see this story from Monday on Politico, which notes that the influential Club for Growth – once a reliable Trump cheerleader – has pushed out polling data showing him trailing rival Ron DeSantis in key primary states. Even his daughter Ivanka says she will not be part of the 2024 campaign.3 He has a viable rival on the far rightDeSantis (below) was one of the Republican party’s few big winners on election night, beating his Democratic rival by almost 20 points in the race to be governor of Florida. DeSantis is a threat to Trump precisely because he hews pretty closely to his extreme ideology without the former president’s baggage or unpredictability – and a YouGov poll shows him with a seven-point lead among Republican voters nationally.Trump’s nickname for the man he views as the only serious threat to his domination of the Republican party, Ron DeSanctimonious, is pretty funny – but Republican voters may ask themselves if they wouldn’t prefer a more “normal” politician who, at 44, also presents a helpful generational contrast with 79-year-old Joe Biden. For more on the Trump-DeSantis rivalry, see this piece from yesterday by Chris McGreal. And Martin Pengelly has a guide to the other likely candidates.Why he might be the candidate anyway1 He wasn’t the Republicans’ only problem in the midtermsWhile Trump was undoubtedly an issue for Republican candidates, there are sound arguments that the party’s difficulties were not limited to his influence. In the American Conservative, the successful Trump-endorsed Senate candidate in Ohio, JD Vance, argues that blaming the former president ignores the Democrats’ advantage in “small-dollar fundraising” and calls Republican efforts “paltry by comparison”. While the overall fundraising picture is complex, Axios reported that in the 10 most competitive Senate races, Republicans were outraised by $75m among small-dollar donors.It may be hard to wholly separate fundraising from Trump’s influence as rallying force for Democrats. But Vance argues that the best way to solve the problem is to “build a turnout machine” and that the party has “one major asset … to rally these voters: President Donald Trump”. (Unsurprisingly, Trump agrees: he has blamed the GOP establishment, the electoral system, the candidates themselves and reportedly, for her alleged role in leading him to support doomed Senate candidate Mehmet Oz, his wife, Melania.)2 He can still win the nomination without being very popularA presidential election is another question – but in the contest for the Republican nomination, Trump can prevail with the highly motivated minority of Republican voters who still prefer him to any other candidate. Republican pollsters estimate that proportion of GOP primary voters at between one-third and 40%. In 2016, Trump won the Republican primary with about 45% of the vote overall, and many states with less than that. Until DeSantis or anyone else proves they can defeat him with voters, he remains a very serious candidate for the nomination.3 He’s been underestimated beforeIt would be foolish to write off the extensive evidence that Trump’s star is on the wane – but past experience suggests that it would be equally unwise to write him off so early. Meanwhile, there is no sign that the Republican party is thinking hard about what a successful political message that repudiates Trumpism would look like.One plausible theory is that despite his many disadvantages, his supporters are less interested in winning elections than in maintaining their love affair with the politician who tells them they’re right about everything. “It’s tempting to see the strength of the Maga forces ebbing at last, the calendar leaf turning over on the Trump era,” Tom Scocca wrote for the New York Times this week. “But how do you declare defeat for a movement that is built around refusing to accept defeat?”Extremely onlineFor a raucous summary of how Elon Musk’s ownership of Twitter has gone so far, look no further than this exhaustive thread from @christapeterso. Features Mario giving the finger, and Musk on the future of the company: “We all need to be more hardcore.”What else we’ve been reading
      Once you’ve read Dan Hancox’s account of “proper binmen” memes, you’ll see the past and the present differently. Beautifully written, subtle and featuring a three-paragraph rendition of the sweep of the “baby boomer nostalgia industrial complex” that could hardly be bettered. Archie
      India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has presented himself as a committed environmentalist who wants his country to embrace renewable energy, all while unveiling plans to increase coal production to 1bn tonnes a year. Hannah Ellis-Petersen dives into India’s energy conundrum. Nimo
      Ageing gamers like me have much to learn from Keith Stuart’s guide to surviving an online ecosystem ruled by trigger-happy teens. As with most things for the over-30s, it comes down to not running, spending a lot of money on equipment and hiding as much as possible. Archie
      David Squires’ cartoon on the death of Qatar World Cup worker Rupchandra Rumba by “natural causes”, building on the reporting of Pete Pattisson, makes the brutal conditions faced by those who made the tournament possible inescapable. And read Pattisson’s piece on what he’s learned in reporting on migrant workers’ plight. Archie
      In this hilarious and honest Q&A, Liam Pape spoke to the comedian Sara Pascoe about the best and worst advice she’s ever received, her relationship with feminism and her new show Success Story. Nimo
      SportWorld Cup | Gay Qataris have been promised safety from torture in exchange for helping authorities track down other LGBTQ+ people, a prominent Qatari campaigner told the Guardian. Dr Nasser Mohamed said foreign gay fans would not face prosecution during the tournament but warned that gay Qataris faced a very different reality.Football | England’s Lionesses could not find a 17th victory of the year but signed off on an unbeaten 2022 with a 1-1 draw against Norway, who equalised late on despite the sending off of Anja Sønstevold.Cricket | Simon Burnton’s review of the T20 World Cup reflects on the tournament’s thrilling unpredictability – the Netherlands v South Africa for best match? – and asks the hard questions of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.The front pagesOur Guardian print edition leads with “Russian barrage strikes Ukraine amid claims missiles hit Poland”. The front-page picture is Awaab Ishak, not even two, who died from mould in the family flat. Of that, the Daily Express says “Tragic death of boy from mould shames Britain”. The Times has “Russians blamed for fatal strike on Poland” while the Daily Mirror says “Russian bombs hit Poland” under the banner “Tyrant’s war on Ukraine” with a picture of Vladimir Putin. “Putin’s war spills into Poland” – that’s the i, while the Daily Telegraph has “Russian missile strikes Poland”. The Metro says “Putin’s war escalates – ‘Russian missiles’ hit Poland”. In the Financial Times, it’s “Sunak urges bosses to curb their pay and look after staff”. The culture wars are back on in the Daily Mail: “Universities are told to ‘decolonise’ maths and computing”. And the footballer Ronaldo has told the Sun that “I keep our baby Angel’s ashes. I talk to him all the time”.Today in FocusReclaiming Kherson: what Russia’s retreat reveals about the fight for UkraineUkrainians have reacted with jubilation after retaking Kherson city and the region around it. But what did living under Russian occupation do to the area and its people – and is this really the beginning of the end of the war?Cartoon of the day | Martin RowsonThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badCorals that were planted in 2017 at Fitzroy Island on the Great Barrier Reef have spawned for the first time. They were planted as part of a pilot programme testing the benefits of offshore “coral nurseries” – the hopes were that the corals that were grown from fragments that had survived mass bleaching would be resilient to heatwaves in the future. The spawning has been described as a “beautiful milestone” in the journey to recovering Australia’s corals. So far the Reef Restoration Foundation has established 33 coral nurseries to help the health of the reef on a small localised scale.Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
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