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      The race for the 2024 election is on. But who will take on Trump?

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      The race for the 2024 election is on. But who will take on Trump?The ex-president is daring Republican challengers to make the first move – and some are preparing to attack The starting gun has been fired and the race for the White House is under way. But in Iowa, where the first-in-the-nation Republican caucuses are just a year off, the landscape is icy and snowy and eerily silent.There is no great mystery why: the Donald Trump effect.Sarah Huckabee Sanders to give Republican State of the Union responseRead more“These folks must be watching Trump’s poll numbers and that’s why there’s a delay,” said Art Cullen, editor of Iowa’s Storm Lake Times. “Trump and [Florida governor Ron] DeSantis are doing this sparring around the ring. Others are watching to see if somebody takes a blow and gives them an opening.”At the same stage in 2019, at least a dozen Democratic contenders for the presidency had either been to Iowa or announced plans to visit soon. “We were getting one every other week,” recalled Cullen, noting that the first major candidate forum took place in March.But among potential Republican hopefuls for 2024 only the former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson has visited so far this year while Tim Scott, a senator for South Carolina, and Kari Lake, a former candidate for governor of Arizona, seen as a possible Trump running mate, have lined up appearances later this month.Trump, the only declared candidate so far, has not yet been to Iowa but his campaign is finally moving up a gear. Last weekend the former US president addressed Republicans at small-scale events in two other early voting states, New Hampshire and South Carolina, vowing to “complete the unfinished business of making America great again”. He is issuing policy statements, building infrastructure and unveiling endorsements that signal: catch me if you can.It is a surprisingly orthodox approach from the most unconventional of candidates. The 76-year-old was twice impeached, was blamed for thousands of deaths in the coronavirus pandemic and encouraged a violent coup on 6 January 2021. He is facing multiple criminal investigations and yet, with remarkable insouciance, styling himself as incumbent in all but name and betting on voters’ short memories.He is also throwing down the gauntlet to would-be challengers, daring them to make the first move. While there are signs that some are preparing to take him on, none has yet launched a full-frontal attack on Trump or Trumpism, apparently wary of earning his wrath and alienating his base.Bill Whalen, a former media consultant for California politicians including former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, said: “I don’t think anybody wants to run and be a bad guy wrestler, be seen as the heel whose one purpose is just to attack Donald Trump. It’s not a ticket to success and it’s grinding because Trump will return fire. What’s the old saying about wrestling with the pig in the mud: you get dirty and the pig enjoys it more than you do.”It emerged this week that Nikki Haley, 51, who was South Carolina’s governor before serving as Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, is planning to announce her candidacy in Charleston on 15 February. In 2021 Haley told the Associated Press that she “would not run if President Trump ran”, but she has since changed her mind, telling Fox News that she could be part of “new generational change”.In South Carolina last Saturday Trump told WIS-TV that Haley had called him several days earlier to seek his opinion. “She said she would never run against me because I was the greatest president, but people change their opinions, and they change what’s in their hearts,” he said. “So I said, if your heart wants to do it, you have to go do it.”Trump appears more threatened by – and less courteous towards – DeSantis, who won re-election in a landslide in Florida and is beating him in some opinion polls. Trump, who helped elevate DeSantis in the past, has dubbed him “Ron DeSanctimonious” and said a DeSantis challenge for the 2024 nomination would be “a great act of disloyalty”.But even DeSantis – who is not expected to declare until the Florida legislature adjourns in the spring – has pulled his punches so far. He responded to Trump’s attack with only a coded rebuke, drawing a contrast between his own success and Trump’s failure at the ballot box in 2020: “Not only did we win re-election, we won with the highest percentage of the vote that any Republican governor candidate has in the history of the state of Florida.”Other possible candidates such as Trump’s former vice-president Mike Pence and his ex-secretary of state Mike Pompeo have been similarly circumspect in critiquing their former boss, taking the odd swipe while also praising his administration and their parts in it. Taking on Trump directly carries huge political risks, as rivals such as Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio discovered via name calling, insults and humiliation in 2016.John Zogby, an author and pollster, said: “There is the the sense that alienating Donald Trump is a very thankless task. Trump comes down with a hammer, an anvil and a safe from the sky. Even though it is clear that a lot of the magic is gone from Trump, by the same token he can do extensive damage. He still has his own forum and he still has his own loyal following and he can suck up all the negative oxygen. Whether Trump wins or loses, he blocks.”Even so, Trump could soon have company on the campaign trail, not least because primaries often draw long-shot candidates who would welcome the consolation prize of a book deal, radio show, TV pundit gig or slot as winner’s running mate.State governors who might seek to build their brand nationally include Greg Abbott of Texas, Brian Kemp of Georgia, Kristi Noem of South Dakota, Kim Reynolds of Iowa, Chris Sununu of New Hampshire and Glenn Youngkin of Virginia.It remains to be seen if forthright Trump critics such as Liz Cheney, a former congresswoman from Wyoming, and Larry Hogan, the ex-governor of Maryland, will throw their hats in the ring. Few observers expect such a candidate to win a primary more likely to offer voters different flavors of “Make America great again” (Maga), with culture warrior DeSantis aiming to prove himself a younger, more dynamic version of the brand than the Trump original.Drexel Heard, a Democratic strategist, said: “It’s going to be very interesting to see how Maga Nikki Haley becomes in the primary. I find Nikki Haley to be intelligent but she is going to have to go full tilt Maga to get through this primary because she’s up against somebody like Ron DeSantis, who is already coming out of the gate with red meat.”With a fiercely loyal base, Trump stands to benefit from a divided field, just as he did in 2016. In South Carolina he has already bagged the endorsements of Governor Henry McMaster and Senator Lindsey Graham, stealing a march on Haley and Scott within the state. But as Trump seeks to normalise himself with a traditional campaign so far, there are also important differences from seven years ago.Whalen, the former California consultant who is now a research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University in Palo Alto, said: “First, there are legal issues. Now, some are more serious than others but if you’re running for president and you’re taking the fifth amendment 400 times, it’s not a good look for a candidate.“Second, he has a record to deal with that he didn’t have. Donald Trump was a hypothetical in 2015 and 2016, a tabula rasa when it came to holding office. Now he has four years in office which he has to explain. He’s not a hypothetical, he’s somebody who has had the job before, so voters have to make the calculation: do they want him in office again?“Third, there was not a Ron DeSantis-like figure in 2016. There was nobody quite in the same position as DeSantis in terms of the ability to do three things at once: monetise, point to a very successful record in his state and play the game that Trump plays. That is what makes DeSantis an option that wasn’t there for Republicans in 2016. In 2024, there is someone potentially who could fight fire with fire.”Other commentators agree that, despite the slow start in Iowa, the Republican primary looks set to be far more competitive than anyone imagined a year ago. The party was willing to overlook any number of Trump’s lies and misdemeanors but not the miserable performance of his handpicked candidates in last November’s midterm elections. The self-proclaimed winner has become a serial loser: his fundraising numbers so far have been relatively disappointing.Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, said: “I’m not seeing a whole lot of Trump fear. It looks to me that there has been a truly wide agreement in Republican circles that Trump is weak and that he’s beatable. Moreover, he may be even weaker with the coming indictments. To me what’s going on right now is just confirmation that Trump’s hold on the Republican party is loosening.“I would say it’s pretty open. Trump is a favourite but he’s got some very serious long-term viability issues in the field that is obviously no longer intimidated by him. Republicans are tired of losing.”TopicsDonald TrumpUS politicsRepublicansRon DeSantisIowaMike PenceNikki HaleyfeaturesReuse this content More

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      Trump seems oddly relaxed about Republican rival Nikki Haley | Arwa Mahdawi

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      Trump seems oddly relaxed about Republican rival Nikki Haley. Is it because she doesn’t stand a chance?Arwa MahdawiRon DeSantis would supposedly be ‘disloyal’ if he challenged Trump for the White House. Haley, meanwhile, ‘should do it’. Guess who’s a bigger threat? Has Donald Trump taken up meditation as his new year resolution? Is he mainlining sedatives? Did a demon snatch his soul and replace it with that of a reasonable person? I ask because the unthinkable has happened: Trump has responded to the idea of one of his former acolytes challenging his 2024 ambitions in a calm and measured manner, instead of with his usual insults.The acolyte in question is Nikki Haley, a former South Carolina governor and Trump’s US ambassador to the UN. There are mounting rumours that Haley is exploring a potential run against Trump in 2024 – a fact that doesn’t seem to bother her old boss very much. Speaking to reporters on his plane on Saturday, Trump said Haley had called him up to chat about running and he’d told her: “Go by your heart if you want to run.” To be fair, he couldn’t resist a little dig, noting Haley had “publicly said that ‘I would never run against my president – he was a great president.’” Still, he magnanimously told her she “should do it”.Trump wasn’t quite as high-minded about another of his former disciples who also has his eye on the White House. During the same press session, Trump attacked the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, accusing him of trying to “rewrite” history as regards his Covid response. “When I hear that he might [run], I think it’s very disloyal,” Trump said, according to Politico, adding: “He won’t be leading. I got him elected. I’m the one that chose him.”Why is Trump bothered about DeSantis and blase about Haley? It’s not sedatives or soul-swapping demons at play, I reckon – it’s misogyny. My guess is that Trump thinks Haley has zero chance of the top job so he’s happy to humour the little lady. DeSantis, meanwhile, is far more of a threat.To be fair, the polls support this thesis. Three national polls released in January show Trump leads the field in a hypothetical 2024 Republican presidential primary, but DeSantis is firmly in second place. Haley, meanwhile, is polling at 3% – way behind Trump’s range of 48-55%. Still, if there’s one thing we’ve learned from recent years, it’s that polls should be taken with a very large pinch of salt. Just because it currently seems that Haley has little chance of winning the Republican nomination doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Remember how many people wrote Trump off in 2016.Haley, for her part, seems to think she’s in with a shot. In a recent interview with Fox News she noted that she’s “never lost a race … Stay tuned.” Meanwhile, one Republican told the Hill that the former governor “has decided her time is now and she’s about to take the gloves off when it comes to Trump, DeSantis and [Mike] Pompeo”. The gloves have already been slipping. Haley, 51, recently tweeted a clip from her Fox News interview during which she said, in a blatant reference to Joe Biden and Trump’s ages, that she thinks “it’s time for new generational change. I don’t think you need to be 80 years old to go be a leader in DC. I think we need a young generation to come in, step up and really start fixing things.” Look, I agree with the rabidly rightwing Haley on absolutely nothing but if she wants to define 51 as “young” (which it objectively is in the geriatric US government) I’m all for that.Also in Haley’s favour is that she has always cynically used the fact that she’s an Indian-American woman (her birth name is Nimrata Randhawa) and the child of immigrants to deflect from bigotry in the Republican party and seem palatable to some liberals. Simultaneously, however, she’s adept at throwing meat to the rightwing base and wading into culture wars. “CRT [critical race theory] is un-American,” she tweeted on Monday, for example.So could Haley be the first female president of the US? Again, I wouldn’t write it off. She’s smart, ambitious and apparently devoid of any sort of moral compass: all the qualifications you need to get to the top in politics.
      Arwa Mahdawi is a Guardian columnist
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      Ron DeSantis prepares for 2024 White House bid as Trump hits campaign trail

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      Ron DeSantis prepares for 2024 White House bid as Trump hits campaign trail Moves spur Trump into attacking Florida governor during low key events over the weekend in Iowa and New HampshireAmerica’s 2024 presidential race is showing signs of kicking into gear amid reports that Florida’s rightwing Republican governor Ron DeSantis is now laying the groundwork for a White House bid as Donald Trump finally hit the campaign trail.DeSantis’s moves even spurred Trump into attacking him directly as the former US president held relatively low key events over the weekend in the key early voting states of New Hampshire and South Carolina.“Ron would have not been governor if it wasn’t for me… when I hear he might run, I consider that very disloyal,” Trump said, before seeking to slam DeSantis’s actions over fighting the Covid-19 pandemic.DeSantis began his time as Florida’s governor in the shadow of Trump, whose political messaging he closely emulated. But he has since emerged as Trump’s most powerful political rival in the Republican party, increasingly popular with many party officials who are wary of the scandals and chaos that accompanied Trump’s time in office.The Washington Post has reported that DeSantis’s political team has already identified potential campaign hires in states like Iowa and New Hampshire, whose traditional early spots in the nomination contest give them outsize influence on the race.Citing two Republican sources with knowledge of conversations and staff meeting on DeSantis team, the paper said the Florida governor was in close talks with two current and experienced members of his current team – Phil Cox and Generra Peck – about possible senior roles in any 2024 effort.Bill Bowen, a New Hampshire Republican delegate, told the paper that his state would likely be receptive to DeSantis. “I’m convinced there’s a good network of establishment party people in New Hampshire that will quickly have a very effective DeSantis campaign,” Bowen said.DeSantis has carved out turf in the Republican party that invites conflict with Trump. He has tacked to the extremist right, especially on social issues. His state has restricted LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, sought to demonize further education in the state as a bastion of liberal power and he has enflamed tensions over immigration with a series of political stunts.In response to DeSantis’s likely presidential bid, Trump has issued threats against the governor. Last November, Trump appeared to warn DeSantis by hinting at political blackmail against DeSantis’s potential 2024 run.“I think if he runs, he could hurt himself very badly. I really believe he could hurt himself badly… I would tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering – I know more about him than anybody – other than, perhaps, his wife,” Trump told Fox News.It was once widely expected that Trump – the only so far declared major candidate for the Republican nomination – would be largely unopposed. But a series of scandals, including meeting with white nationalists, and the flop of high-profile Trump-backed candidates in November’s midterm elections, has seen his grip on the party loosen considerably.Now a swath of other Republicans seem poised to enter the race.Trump even appeared to give his blessing to his former US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, after she informed him that she is considering a 2024 presidential bid.“I talked to her for a little while, I said, ‘Look, you know, go by your heart if you want to run’… She’s publicly said that ‘I would never run against my president, he was a great president,’” Trump told reporters on Saturday, CNN reports.He added that he told Haley that she “should do it”.In a Fox News interview earlier this month, when asked about her previous comments about not running for president if Trump ran, Haley responded that the “survival of America matters”.“It’s bigger than one person. And when you’re looking at the future of America, I think it’s time for new generational change. I don’t think you need to be 80 years old to go be a leader in DC… I think we need a young generation to come in, step up, and really start fixing things,” she said.Other former Trump cabinet members have also hinted at their presidential bids. Earlier this week, CBS asked former national security adviser John Bolton if he is considering a 2024 run. Bolton said that characterization is “exactly right”, the outlet reports.Bolton also criticized Trump’s 2024 presidential bid, calling it “poison” to the Republican party.“I think Republicans, especially after the November 8 elections last year, see that he’s poison to the ticket. He cannot be elected president. If he were the Republican nominee, he would doom our chances to get a majority in the Senate and the House. I don’t think he’s going to be the Republican nominee,” he said.On Tuesday, former secretary of state Mike Pompeo said that he will decide whether he will run for president. Speaking to CBS, Pompeo said: “Susan and I are thinking, praying, trying to figure out if this is the next place to go serve,” referring to his wife.“We haven’t gotten to that conclusion. We’ll figure this out in the next handful of months,” he added.When asked whether Trump’s 2024 presidential bid is having an impact on his own decision-making, Pompeo said: “None.”There are also likely to be a host of other Republicans eventually in the race with people like Georgia governor Brian Kemp and Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin among names often touted as likely runners.TopicsUS elections 2024Ron DeSantisUS politicsDonald TrumpRepublicansFloridanewsReuse this content More

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      Trump is trying to make a comeback. It’s not working | Lloyd Green

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      Trump is trying to make a comeback. It’s not workingLloyd GreenHis ‘campaign event’ this week was a dud, his legal woes are growing and his cronies are viciously infighting Once again, the legal pitfalls and enthusiasm deficit that plague Donald Trump’s bid for the 2024 Republican nomination are on display. On Thursday, a federal judge imposed $938,000 in sanctions on Trump and his lawyers. Meanwhile, an appearance touted by Trump as a major campaign event was nothing more than a closed-door speech to deep-pocketed election-deniers at a Trump property.For those looking for uplift from a Trump campaign, those days are over. Rather, personal grievance and claims of a stolen 2020 election will likely be his dominant themes. For the 45th president, that may bring catharsis. For everyone else in the Republican party, that spells chaos, headache and the possibility of another Trump defeat at the hands of Joe Biden and the Democrats.Trump, Bankman-Fried and Musk are the monsters of American capitalism | Robert ReichRead more“Mr Trump is a prolific and sophisticated litigant who is repeatedly using the courts to seek revenge on political adversaries,” the court thundered in its ruling. “He is the mastermind of strategic abuse of the judicial process.”Judge Donald Middlebrooks shredded Trump and his lawyers for bringing a failed and frivolous racketeering lawsuit against Hillary Clinton, her political allies and a passel of ex-government officials. In the judge’s eyes, the lawsuit was little else than a repackaged Trump campaign stump speech.A day later, Trump dropped a separate lawsuit filed against Letitia James, New York’s attorney general. That case too was pending before Middlebrooks, who similarly viewed that matter as “vexatious and frivolous”. The threat of sanctions hung in the air.As for the Trump speech the public never heard, it now is another self-inflicted nothingburger, up there with his much-touted Trump NFT superhero trading cards – a waste of time and attention, a lost opportunity.Earlier in the day, Trump had vowed to deliver a major political announcement later that night. He also promised to resume his signature rallies. Instead, he spoke behind closed doors at Trump Doral, his resort in Miami, to Judicial Watch, a tax-exempt group ostensibly dedicated to promoting “integrity, transparency and accountability in government and fidelity to the rule of law”.That is the line Judicial Watch feeds the IRS. Reality is different. Tom Fitton, Judicial Watch’s president, pushed Trump to declare victory early on election night 2020 and stop counting ballots. Fitton also argued that White House records were Trump’s to keep.Rule of law? Not so much, actually.To be sure, Trump still leads the pack of prospective Republican presidential nominees. No other Republican contender possesses the same rapport with the party’s white working-class base; no one else is owed so much by Kevin McCarthy, the beleaguered speaker of the House.By the numbers, Trump retains a double-digit advantage over Ron DeSantis, Florida’s spite-filled but mirthless governor. So far, the 45th president’s mounting legal woes, listless campaign and friction with the evangelical leadership have not displaced him from his perch.At the same time, the Republican field appears poised for a growth spurt, and if 2016 teaches anything, it is that more actually is merrier from Trump’s vantage point. It dilutes the opposition.Kevin McCarthy’s debt ceiling standoff is yet more Republican madness | Richard WolffeRead moreRight now, anyway, Trump’s prospective challengers are running in place or forming circular firing squads. Mike Pence, his vice-president, hawks So Help Me God, a memoir. His numbers last hit double digits in June 2022. Candidates in retrograde usually lose.Apparently, Pence is betting that abortion and the supreme court’s decision overturning Roe v Wade may get him to the promised land. Or not. In case Pence forgot, voters in otherwise reliably conservative Kansas and Kentucky rejected abortion bans.Meanwhile, Mike Pompeo, Trump’s secretary of state, and Nikki Haley, his one-time UN ambassador, are publicly engaged in a personal spat. In Never Give an Inch, his soon-to-be released memoir, Pompeo trashes Haley for “abandoning” Trump and being less than consequential.Celebrity Apprentice is back. “Haley has become just another career politician whose ambitions matter more than her words,” Taylor Budowich, a former Trump spokesman who sued the January 6 committee, has since chimed in.To be sure, Haley gives as good as she gets. She accuses Pompeo of peddling “lies and gossip to sell a book” – arguing that Pompeo “is printing a Haley anecdote that he says he doesn’t know for certain happened this way”, to quote Maggie Haberman.Yet for all of his would-be opponents’ missteps, Trump’s road to re-nomination won’t be a coronation. His mojo is missing, his aura of inevitability damaged, if not gone. In the two months since Trump announced his candidacy, he has barely ventured from the confines of Mar-a-Lago, his redoubt by the Atlantic.There is also the primary calendar. Trump could well face Chris Sununu, New Hampshire’s popular governor, in the state’s primary. A Trump loss in the Granite State would be monumental. He won that contest seven years ago. And down in Georgia, governor Brian Kemp may be aching for revenge.Beyond that, Trump has suffered a series of recent legal setbacks. Last month, a Manhattan jury convicted the Trump Organization on tax and fraud charges. As a coda, the court imposed $1.6m in fines, the maximum allowed under state law.After Brexit and Trump, rightwing populists cling to power – but the truth is they can’t govern | Jonathan FreedlandRead moreThen there is the pending sexual assault and defamation litigation brought by E Jean Carroll. At a rage-filled deposition, the ex-reality show host flashed moments of verbal incontinence. There, he confused the plaintiff with Marla Maples, his second wife. In that split second, his much-hyped “she’s not my type” defense may have vanished.The near future does not appear much brighter. A trial is set for later this spring.Meanwhile, the special counsel moves ahead and the Manhattan district attorney reportedly shows renewed interest in Trump Organization payments to Stormy Daniels. Along the way, Michael Cohen has resurfaced. The circus is back.To top it off, in Georgia, a Fulton county court will hear arguments this coming week on whether to release a grand jury report on the 2020 election. If indicted, Trump’s fate on extradition could well rest with DeSantis. Now that’s ironic.
      Lloyd Green is an attorney in New York and served in the US Department of Justice from 1990 to 1992
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      Republicans squabble over abortion as 2024 primaries loom

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      Republicans squabble over abortion as 2024 primaries loom Potential presidential contenders walk tightrope in demonstrating hardline credentials without alienating moderatesThey came in their thousands, wearing hats, waving flags and exulting in the death of American women’s constitutional right to abortion. But some who marched in Washington on Friday were also thinking ahead: who will be their next champion in the White House?“If it wasn’t for President Trump, we wouldn’t have a post-Roe America,” said Patricia Stephanoff, 66, from Michigan, wearing a pink “Trump 2024” hat. “He’s the most pro-life president we’ve ever had. He’s the only president who has ever come to the march.”Not everyone on the first March for Life since the supreme court’s June 2022 decision to overturn Roe v Wade saw it the same way, however. Yvette Griego, from New Mexico, said she preferred Trump’s former vice-president, Mike Pence, because he stood for his convictions and beliefs.Abortion is emerging as one of the first animating issues and key point of differentiation in the nascent Republican presidential primary for 2024, with Trump, the one officially declared candidate, and various likely rivals already jostling for position.‘We’re not done’: abortion opponents hold first March for Life since fall of Roe Read moreEach faces a tightrope as they must demonstrate their hardline anti-abortion credentials to the base voters that dominate a Republican primary, then manage or mitigate the subject in a way that does not alienate independents and moderates in a general election.The awkwardness was spelled out in last year’s midterm elections, less than five months after the demise of Roe v Wade allowed states to enact near or total bans on abortion. Numerous Republican candidates stressed their opposition to reproductive rights during the primaries, only to then scrub such language from their campaign websites when they faced Democrats.Voters were not fooled and Republicans underperformed, losing a seat in the Senate and gaining only a 10-seat majority in the House of Representatives. Anti-abortion extremists such as Tudor Dixon in Michigan, Adam Laxalt in Nevada and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania crashed and burned.An analysis by the the Henry J Kaiser Family Foundation found that nearly half of voters said the supreme court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade had a major impact on which candidates they supported in this election, with almost two-thirds of those voting for Democratic House candidates.No one is finding the issue more vexing than Trump himself. Seeking to shift blame for Republicans’ poor showing, he said this month: “It was the ‘abortion issue’, poorly handled by many Republicans, especially those that firmly insisted on no exceptions, even in the case of rape, incest, or life of the mother, that lost large numbers of voters.”The observation drew criticism from Christian evangelical leaders who have so far been slow to endorse Trump’s 2024 bid, perhaps aware that others may outflank him on the right. So it was no surprise this week when Trump sought to shore up his anti-abortion credentials, reminding conservatives that he was the one who tilted the balance of the supreme court.In an interview on Real America’s Voice on Monday, he said: “Nobody has ever done more for right to life than Donald Trump. I put three supreme court justices, who all voted, and they got something that they’ve been fighting for 64 years, for many, many years.”Not for the first time, Trump seems to have few genuine ideological beliefs. In his days as a New York property developer and celebrity, he said he was pro-choice. But during his 2016 election, he declared “there has to be some form of punishment” for women who have abortions.Stuart Stevens, a co-founder of the Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump group, said: “Trump has been all over the place on abortion. He’s had more positions than George Santos has names. He was adamantly pro-choice at one time before he ran for president.”Pence, whose recently published memoir is titled So Help Me God, is a more convincing zealot. He has endorsed a national 15-week abortion ban proposed last year by Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. His uncompromising stance could be a unique selling point in states such as Iowa in the Republican primaries – and a serious liability in the general election.The former vice-president told the Daily Signal this week that he “strongly” disagrees with Trump’s comments about the midterms, contending that candidates with a “clear, unambiguous commitment to life” performed well.Pence’s non-profit organisation, Advancing American Freedom, has proposed a law that would extend protections to embryos by declaring that life begins at the moment an egg is fertilised and a law that could open the way to banning Plan B emergency contraceptives and some forms of birth control.The Democratic National Committee said in a press release: “Pence has made his anti-abortion stances the hallmark of his shadow campaign for the 2024 Republican primary – drawing his fellow GOP contenders to showcase their extremism as well as they each compete for the Maga base.”Among them is Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida currently leading Trump in some polls, who in April signed a bill banning abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy with no exceptions for rape or incest.That did not go far enough for Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota. Her spokesperson, Ian Fury, told the conservative National Review magazine: “Governor Noem was the only governor in America on national television defending the Dobbs decision [that overturned Roe v Wade]. Where was Governor DeSantis? Hiding behind a 15-week ban. Does he believe that 14-week-old babies don’t have a right to live?”The surprise attack might reflect Noem’s presidential ambitions – or an effort to catch the eye and curry favour with Trump as a possible pick for running mate. Meanwhile Glenn Youngkin, the governor of Virginia and another potential candidate, has thrown his weight behind a 15-week ban in the state with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.And Mike Pompeo, a former secretary of state, has promoted his work in the Trump administration reimplementing and expanding the “Mexico City policy” – a ban on US foreign aid for overseas groups that make referrals for abortions or give patients information about the procedure. He tweeted last year: “Now, with Roe overturned, we will see which politicians supported the pro-life cause to win elections, and which actually believed it.”Each is eager to impress anti-abortion groups likely to carry huge sway in the Republican primary. On a call with reporters this week, Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B Anthony List, said any Republican hopeful who shied away from pushing for new federal restrictions on abortion had “disqualified him or herself as a presidential candidate in our eyes and, having done so, has very little chance of winning the nomination”.Dannenfelser said she and her team would meet potential nominees in the coming months. She held talks recently with DeSantis and was “extremely satisfied” by his commitment to advancing anti-abortion legislation in the state. She said he had described the state’s ban on abortion after 15 weeks as a “start” but added that the governor did not know yet what his next steps on abortion would be.Above all, Dannenfelser warned candidates not to adopt the “ostrich strategy”, which she described as a misguided – and electorally costly – effort by some Republicans to avoid discussing their position on abortion. In 2022, candidates who embraced the approach out of fear of alienating key voters fared poorly, she argued, compared with those who aggressively defended their anti-abortion positions, such as DeSantis and the Florida senator Marco Rubio.“I would say if you could only give one lesson learned it would be the result of the ostrich strategy is disastrous for candidates,” she told reporters. “If that’s what happens in the coming federal elections, we will see the same result.”Despite last summer’s triumph, the base remains hungry for more. Last week the Republican-controlled House passed a resolution to condemn attacks on anti-abortion facilities, including crisis pregnancy centers, and a separate bill that would impose new penalties if a doctor refused to care for an infant born alive after an abortion attempt. Neither is expected to pass the Democratic-led Senate.But last August voters in deep red Kansas delivered a warning to Republicans, decisively voting to continue to protect abortion rights in the state constitution. Then came the letdown of the midterms. The issue could trouble Republicans again in House, Senate and governors’ races next year.Wendy Schiller, a political science professor at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, said: “Abortion is most likely the No 1 internal problem for the Republican party going into ’24. Independents went by somewhere around 3% for Democrats and most of them, women anyway, went because of abortion.“If you adopt a strident, complete ban on abortion, I just don’t see how you win nationally. You can’t win Michigan. You can’t win Pennsylvania. You do the electoral college map and I wonder how the Republicans see a road to the White House if they adopt a complete ban on abortion.”Yet the likely candidates in what could be an ugly Republican primary are trying to outdo each other in attacking reproductive rights and throwing red meat to the base. Christina Reynolds, a spokesperson for Emily’s List, which works to help elect Democratic female candidates in favour of abortion rights, said: “They don’t just have a messaging problem; they have a policy problem.“Republicans are already in a race to the bottom: how quickly and how drastically can we take away people’s rights? They are misreading what the voters want. Voters have told them very clearly. That may play in parts of a Republican primary but it won’t work for them in the end.”TopicsUS newsAbortionRepublicansUS politicsDonald TrumpRon DeSantisfeaturesReuse this content More

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      US turns back growing number of undocumented people after arduous sea journeys

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      US turns back growing number of undocumented people after arduous sea journeysBiden shifts toward political center as likely presidential rival Ron DeSantis calls out national guard Authorities in Florida have been turning back growing numbers of undocumented Cubans and Haitians arriving by sea in recent weeks as more attempt to seek haven in the US.Local US residents on jet skis have been helping some of the migrants who attempted to swim ashore after making arduous, life-threateningand days-long journeys in makeshift vessels.Joe Biden’s turn to the center over immigration comes as Florida’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, attempts to plot his own strategy for handling a sensitive situation in the south of his state, calling out national guard troops in a hardline approach.Last Thursday, the US Coast Guard returned another 177 Cuban migrants to their island nation, while scores of Haitians who swam ashore in Miami were taken into custody by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP).As the Cuban exodus continues, Biden adjusts immigration policyRead moreThe coastguard says that since 1 October, it has intercepted and returned more than 4,900 Cubans at sea, compared with about 6,100 in the 12 months to 30 September.DeSantis, seen as a likely contender for his party’s 2024 presidential nomination, has taken swipes at the White House for what he claims are Biden’s “lawless” immigration policies and perceived open borders.The Biden administration has hit back, accusing DeSantis of “making a mockery” of the immigration system by staging his own series of political stunts, including an episode last year in which he sent a planeload of mostly Venezuelan migrants to Massachusetts, flying them from Texas at Florida taxpayers’ expense.The governor is under criminal investigation in Texas and defending a separate lawsuit over the flight, and another to Biden’s home state of Delaware that was canceled, which reports said involved covert operatives linked to DeSantis recruiting migrants at a San Antonio motel with false promises of housing and jobs.In the latest incidents of migrants attempting to land in south Florida, the TV station WPLG spotted city of Miami marine patrol jet skis rescuing at least two people found swimming in the ocean, and a CBP spokesperson, Michael Selva, said beachgoers on Virginia Key had helped others ashore on Thursday using small boats and jet skis.Two days earlier, another group of about 25 people made landfall near Fort Lauderdale. Authorities arrested 12, while others ran away.Increasing numbers of people are risking their lives to reach the US despite stricter policies from the Biden administration intended to deter irregular immigration and increase humanitarian visa numbers for Cubans, and others, to enter legally – but with a high bar to entry unattainable to many of the thousands fleeing existential threats including extreme violence, political oppression, severe poverty and hardships exacerbated by the climate crisis or failed states.Biden has responded to conservative voices inside the Democratic party and Republicans calling for a tougher stance. But critics say the president’s new “carrot and stick” approach, cracking down on undocumented immigration while appearing to offer an olive branch of more visas, presents obstacles that most migrants would struggle to overcome.Biden’s ‘carrot and stick’ approach to deter migrants met with angerRead moreThe White House says up to 30,000 people a month from Haiti, Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela will be admitted to the US, but only if they apply online, can pay their own airfare and find a financial sponsor.Writing in the Guardian last week, Moustafa Bayoumi, immigration author and professor of English at Brooklyn College, City University of New York, said Biden was “throwing migrants under the bus”.“This is a program obviously designed to favor those with means and pre-established connections in the US, and it’s hard to imagine it as anything but meaningless for those forced to flee for their lives without money or planning,” he said.DeSantis, seeking to build political capital from a president many expect him to challenge for the White House in 2024, accused Biden of under-resourcing the federal response to the Florida arrivals and placing a burden on local law enforcement.Meanwhile, the impact of the recent increase in migrant landing attempts continues to be felt in south Florida. The Dry Tortugas national park, off the Florida Keys, has only just reopened after being turned into a makeshift processing center for hundreds of people earlier this month.TopicsUS immigrationFloridaJoe BidenRon DeSantisUS politicsMigrationnewsReuse this content More

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      2024 Veepstakes: who will Donald Trump choose as his running mate?

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      2024 Veepstakes: who will Donald Trump choose as his running mate?From familiar faces to breakout Republican stars, 10 contenders for Trump’s vice-presidential pick for his third White House run Donald Trump, the former US president, is making a third consecutive run for the White House. But there is a job vacancy this time: his running mate. No one thinks it will be former vice-president Mike Pence after the pair fell out over the 2020 election and January 6 insurrection. Trump, a 76-year-old straight, white man who needs to broaden his appeal, might look to a person of colour, a woman or a young person for 2024 (or all of the above) – or he might not. Here are 10 potential contenders:Tucker CarlsonThe Fox News host turned up last summer in Iowa, which gets the first say in the Republican presidential nominating process, prompting speculation about his political ambitions. He is a Trump kindred spirit who goads liberals, appeases Russian president Vladimir Putin and promotes the far-right “great replacement” theory that western elites are importing immigrant voters to supplant white people. But Carlson would be sure to turn off moderates and independents.Ron DeSantisSome “Make America Great Again” voters torn between the authentic original and his upstart rival want to see them join forces on a dream Maga ticket. Florida governor DeSantis once made a campaign ad in which he read Trump’s book about getting rich, The Art of the Deal, to one of his children and encouraged them to “build the wall” along the US-Mexico border by stacking toy bricks. But Trump has now branded him “Ron DeSanctimonious” and the pair seem too similar to run together: less yin and yang than yin and yin.Tulsi GabbardThe former Democratic congresswoman and presidential candidate is attempting to launch a new career as a rightwing media personality. She campaigned for election-denier Kari Lake and other Republicans in the midterm elections. Her provocative challenges to western orthodoxy towards dictators such as Putin and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad are likely to strike a chord with Trump. He may also decide he needs a female running mate to make himself less toxic to suburban women.Marjorie Taylor GreeneThe far-right congresswoman from Georgia personifies the age of Trumpism with racist, antisemitic and Islamophobic statements, indications of support for political violence and wild conspiracy theories such as the claim that a Jewish-controlled space laser started a California wildfire. She recently suggested that, if she had led the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, the mob would have been armed and victorious in its efforts to prevent the certification of Joe Biden’s 2020 victory (she later claimed this was “sarcasm”). She has little experience but her pugnacious campaigning style is right up Trump’s street.Nikki HaleyThe former South Carolina governor was Trump’s first ambassador to the United Nations. She turned against him over the January 6 insurrection but, like many other Republicans, found it easy to forgive him. She also proved willing to campaign for Georgia Senate nominee Herschel Walker despite his glaring incompetence and scandals. Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, might regard the daughter of Sikh immigrants from India as the perfect foil to charges of sexism and racism.Kari LakeShe was the breakout Republican star of the midterms all the way until election day – when she lost the race for governor of Arizona. The charismatic former TV anchor was endorsed by Trump and found a way to repeat his election lies while sounding almost credible. Despite his distaste for losers, Trump has twice welcomed Lake to his Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida since her defeat. It would be no great surprise to hear him say she is straight from “central casting”.Kristi NoemThe governor of South Dakota has become another familiar face on the conservative conference and media circuit, railing against targets such as coronavirus pandemic lockdowns and the Chinese Communist party. In July, she told CNN she would support Trump in 2024 and “would be shocked if he asked” her to be his running mate. Noem has experience in elected office and could give Trump a new shot at credibility among Christians, rural Americans and women.Sarah SandersShe was unswervingly loyal as Trump’s White House press secretary, championing his agenda and insisting that he was misunderstood by critics. Last month she was elected as governor of Arkansas, following in the footsteps of her father, Mike Huckabee, creator of The Kids Guide to President Trump. Sanders and Huckabee, a former pastor, might help Trump shore up the Christian evangelical vote against potential challengers such as Pence. Tim ScottThe South Carolina senator is said to be eyeing his own run for the presidency. The Trump campaign might regard Scott as a compelling choice, hoping that he would neutralise accusations of racism and rally “Blacks for Trump”. He told the Republican national convention in 2020 that his grandfather “suffered the indignity of being forced out of school as a third-grader to pick cotton and never learned to read or write … Our family went from cotton to Congress in one lifetime.”Elise StefanikTrump prizes loyalty and few have been more loyal than congresswoman Elise Stefanik of New York, the number three Republican in the House of Representatives. Once a moderate, she staunchly defended the former president during his impeachments and declared this year: “I am ultra-Maga. And I’m proud of it.” Shrugging off disappointing midterm results, she was quick to endorse Trump for 2024. He has described her as “a star” and said: “She looks like good talent.”TopicsDonald TrumpRepublicansRon DeSantisUS elections 2024US politicsfeaturesReuse this content More

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      As Trump’s star wanes, rivals signal presidential nomination campaigns

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      As Trump’s star wanes, rivals signal presidential nomination campaignsRepublicans vying for the party’s nomination have taken the ex-president’s midterm losses as a sign for them to step up Potential rivals to Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination will this week be reading the runes of political fortune with their families ahead of the New Year – typically the time that nomination contenders begin to make themselves formally apparent.January 6 report review: 845 pages, countless crimes, one simple truth – Trump did itRead moreAmid a lackluster start to Trump’s own campaign and a string of scandals and setbacks to hit the former US president due to his links to far-right extremists and his own legal problems, a field of potential rivals is starting to emerge for a contest that only a few months ago many thought was Trump’s alone for the taking.They include multiple ex-members of Trump’s own cabinet, including his own former vice-president, his former UN ambassador and his former spy chief. Adding to that are a raft of rivals with their own political power bases, such as Florida’s increasingly formidable right-wing governor, Ron DeSantis.Now the hints of ambitions to taking on Trump are coming thick and fast, especially in the wake of the defeat of a host of Trump-backed candidates in November’s midterm elections which have triggered a reckoning with Trump’s grip on the Republican party.“I can tell you that my wife and I will take some time when our kids are home this Christmas – we’re going to give prayerful consideration about what role we might play,” former vice-president Mike Pence, 63, told CBS’ Face the Nation last month.Maryland’s term-limited Republican governor Larry Hogan, and Nikki Haley, South Carolina’s former governor and US ambassador to the UN, have said the holidays would also be a time for deliberation.“We are taking the holidays to kind of look at what the situation is,” Haley said in November. Hogan, a fierce critic of Trump, told CBS last week “it won’t be shocking if I were to bring the subject up” with his family during the break. Come January, he said, he would begin taking advice to “try to figure out what the future is”.“I don’t feel any pressure or any rush to make a decision … things are gonna look completely different three months from now or six months from now than they did today,” Hogan, 66, added.Others in the running are also readily apparent. Former secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s team has reached out to potential campaign staff in early primary states, the Washington Post reported over the weekend. “We figured by the first quarter next year, we need to be hard at it if we’re going to do it,” Pompeo, 58, said in an interview with Fox News.Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson is reportedly talking to donors to determine his ability to fund the 18-month “endurance race” of a nomination process. Hutchinson has said that Trump’s early declaration, on 15 November, had “accelerated everyone’s time frame”.“So the first quarter of next year, you either need to be in or out,” the outgoing, 72-year-old governor told NBC News earlier this month.New Hampshire governor Chris Sununu, 48, said this week he doesn’t believe Trump could win in 2024. He’s voiced concerns that the Republican party could repeat the nomination experience of 2016, when he was a contender, when a large, divided field allowed Trump’s “ drain the swamp” insurgent candidacy to triumph.“We just have to find another candidate at this point,” Sununu told CBS News. While Trump could be the Republican nominee, he added, he’s “not going to be able to close the deal”.Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin, 56, has said he’s “humbled” to be part of the 2024 discussions but in the convention of most candidates, he’s focused on his day job.Youngkin telegraphed his fiscal conservative credentials to wider Republican big-money interests by pushing $4bn in tax cuts through the Virginia legislature and meeting with party megadonors in Manhattan in June.“2024 is a long way away,” he recently told Fox News. “We’ll see what happens”.Helping to break the gender-lock on potential candidates is also South Dakota governor Kristi Noem. Her name has emerged as a potential Trump running mate, but she recently said he did not present “the best chance” for Republicans in 2024.“Our job is not just to talk to people who love Trump or hate Trump,” Noem, 51, told the New York Times in November. “Our job is to talk to every single American.”The biggest dog in the potential race – aside from Trump himself – is by far Florida’s DeSantis, who recently won re-election in his state by a landslide. Some of the Republican party’s biggest donors have already transferred their favors from Trump, 78, toward the 44-year-old governor.Republican mega donor and billionaire Ken Griffin, who moved his hedge fund Citadel from Chicago to Miami last year, described Trump as a “three-time loser” to Bloomberg a day after the former president’s declaration.“I don’t know what he’s going to do. It’s a huge personal decision,” Griffin said of DeSantis. “He has a tremendous record as governor of Florida, and our country would be well-served by him as president.”Similarly, Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of private-equity giant Blackstone, told Axios he was withdrawing his support from Trump for 2024 but stopped short of backing DeSantis. “America does better when its leaders are rooted in today and tomorrow, not today and yesterday,” he said. “It is time for the Republican party to turn to a new generation of leaders.”DeSantis has yet to rule a run in or out, but has signaled his interest by beginning to plant ads on Google and Facebook that target an audience beyond Florida.But in the post-midterm political environment, with Trump-backed candidates performing poorly in most contests, and the former president besieged by investigations and questions about his associations, the running is open.Maryland’s Hogan has described Trump as vulnerable, and “he seems to be dropping every day”. Hutchinson has said “you never know when that early front-runner is going to stumble”. Polls suggest Trump trails DeSantis in a nomination head-to-head, but leads over Pence and Haley.Other potential names in the pot include Texas governor Greg Abbott, 65; Florida senator Rick Scott, also 65; former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, 60; and Texas senator Ted Cruz, 52, who ran for the Republican nomination in 2016.In a provocatively titled “OK Boomers, Let Go of the Presidency” column last week, former George W Bush advisor Karl Rove warned that 2024 may resemble 1960 when voters were ready for a generational shift. In that year, they went for the youngest in the field, John F Kennedy, aged 43.“Americans want leaders who focus on the future,” Rove wrote in the Wall Street Journal. “The country would be better off if each party’s standard bearer came from a new generation … It’s time for the baby boomers and their elders to depart the presidential stage. The party that grasps this has the advantage come 2024”.TopicsRepublicansDonald TrumpRon DeSantisUS politicsNikki HaleyMike PompeoMike PencefeaturesReuse this content More