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      Ron DeSantis leads Donald Trump by 23 points in Republican poll

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      Ron DeSantis leads Donald Trump by 23 points in Republican pollFlorida governor takes enormous lead over embattled ex-president for 2024 race as Mike Pence nears a run of his own In a new poll regarding potential Republican nominees for president in 2024, the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, led Donald Trump by a whopping 23 points.Republican and Republican-leaning voters dealt the significant blow to the former president’s ego in a survey carried out by USA Today and Suffolk University and released on Tuesday.There was good news for Trump in another poll covering the same time period, by Morning Consult, which gave him an 18-point lead over DeSantis. Furthermore, the polling website FiveThirtyEight still shows Trump in the lead in most surveys.Nonetheless, David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, told USA Today: “Republicans and conservative independents increasingly want Trumpism without Trump.”That much has been clear in the rise of DeSantis, a former US military lawyer and hard-right congressman who has pursued distinctly Trumpist hardline, theatrically cruel policies as governor of Florida, in particular on immigration and education.Last month, DeSantis marked a crushing re-election victory with a confidant speech, declaring his state “where woke goes to die” to chants of “two more years”.Trump declared his third consecutive run for the Republican nomination shortly after the midterm elections.But he has shown precious little momentum, particularly after elections in which most of his endorsed candidates for key state posts and in Congress went down to defeat, contributing to a disappointing Republican performance.Trump is also in extensive legal jeopardy, over his attempted election subversion, the retention of White House records and his business affairs.USA Today said its poll showed that among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, enthusiasm for another Trump run is receding.“In July, 60% of Republicans wanted Trump to run again. In October, that number had dipped to 56%. Now it has fallen to 47%, an almost-even split with the 45% who don’t want him to run for a third time.”The poll put Joe Biden, the president, up 47%-40% in a notional rematch with Trump.Biden is 80, Trump 76. Biden has said he will decide on whether to run again over the Christmas holidays.The new poll put DeSantis, 44, ahead of Biden in a notional match-up, 47%-43%.Paleologos sounded a familiar note of caution, saying a big primary field could divide Republican opposition to Trump and hand him the nomination again.“Add in a number of other Republican presidential candidates who would divide the anti-Trump vote and you have a recipe for a repeat of the 2016 Republican caucuses and primaries, when Trump outlasted the rest of the divided field.”Another likely candidate, the former vice-president Mike Pence, is edging closer to announcing a run.Speaking in New Hampshire, an early voting state, on Tuesday, the former vice-president told Fox News the reception accorded his recent memoir “has been a great source of encouragement as we think about the way forward and what our calling might be in the future”.Pence said he and his wife, Karen, would make a decision on whether to mount a run next year, after “prayerful consideration” over the holiday period.“We’ll continue to travel, we’ll continue to listen,” he said.TopicsUS elections 2024US politicsRepublicansRon DeSantisDonald TrumpMike PencenewsReuse this content More

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      Florida governor seeks grand jury investigation into Covid vaccines

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      Florida governor seeks grand jury investigation into Covid vaccinesRon DeSantis asks state supreme court to investigate undefined ‘wrongdoing’ related to vaccinations The Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, said on Tuesday he will petition the state supreme court to convene a grand jury to investigate “any and all wrongdoing” with respect to Covid-19 vaccines.The Republican governor, often mentioned as a possible presidential candidate in 2024, did not say what wrongdoing the panel would investigate, but he suggested it would be in part aimed at jogging loose more information from pharmaceutical companies about the vaccines and potential side effects.A mutated virus, anti-vaxxers and a vulnerable population: how polio returned to the USRead moreHe made the announcement following a roundtable with the Florida surgeon general, Joseph Ladapo, and a panel of scientists and physicians.“We’ll be able to get the data whether they want to give it or not,” DeSantis said. “In Florida, it is illegal to mislead and misrepresent, especially when you are talking about the efficacy of a drug.”Vaccine studies funded by pharmaceutical companies that developed Covid vaccines have been published in peer-reviewed journals like the New England Journal of Medicine, and government panels reviewed data on the safety and effectiveness of the shots before approving them for use.Statewide grand juries, usually comprising 18 people, can investigate criminal activity and issue indictments but also examine systemic problems in Florida and make recommendations. Recent such panels have tackled immigration issues and school safety.DeSantis noted that Florida recently “got $3.2bn through legal action against those responsible for the opioid crisis. So, it’s not like this is something that’s unprecedented.”That money came largely through lawsuits and settlements with drug makers, retailers and distributors.DeSantis said he expected to get approval from the supreme court for the statewide grand jury to be empaneled, probably in the Tampa Bay area.“That will come with legal processes that will be able to get more information and to bring legal accountability to those who committed misconduct,” DeSantis said.DeSantis also announced that he was creating an entity called the public health integrity committee, which will include many of the physicians and scientists who participated in the roundtable on Tuesday. The group includes prominent opponents of lockdowns, federal vaccine mandates and child vaccinations.He said that over the course of the pandemic some people had lost faith in public health institutions, including the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The governor has frequently spoken out against CDC directives, including mask and vaccine mandates, and filed lawsuits to stop many from taking effect in Florida.Additionally, the governor announced that Ladapo would conduct research through the University of Florida to “assess sudden deaths of individuals in good health who received a Covid-19 vaccine”.DeSantis also said the Florida department of health would utilize disease surveillance and vital statistics to assess such deaths.TopicsRon DeSantisFloridaVaccines and immunisationCoronavirusHealthUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      DeSantis and Pence lead Republican wave – of presidential campaign books

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      DeSantis and Pence lead Republican wave – of presidential campaign books The GOP flopped in the midterms but its White House hopefuls still hope to find readers – and conservative group bulk-buyersIn one of the clearest signs that the 2024 Republican presidential primary will feature rivals to Donald Trump, a host of likely candidates have released or will soon release books purporting to outline their political visions.‘It’s on the tape’: Bob Woodward on Donald Trump’s ‘criminal behavior’Read moreSuch books often sell poorly, but that is rarely their point. They are markers of ambition. To judge from the political bookshelves, after midterm elections in which many Trump-endorsed candidates suffered humiliating losses, the former president will not be the only declared candidate for long.Among the first rank of likely challengers, Trump’s vice-president, Mike Pence, released a memoir last month and Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, will follow suit in February.Other possible candidates include the former secretary of state Mike Pompeo (book out next year); the Missouri senator Josh Hawley (one book done, another coming); the former UN ambassador Nikki Haley (two books out already); and the South Carolina senator Tim Scott (book published in August, including an inadvertent admission that he is going to run). Even Marco Rubio, the GOP’s great slight hope until Trump took him to the cleaners in 2016, has another book coming.Matt Dallek, a professor of political management at George Washington University, said: “These books serve as a way to generate free media and a way to put one’s name and platform, to an extent that it exists, in the eyes of voters you’re looking to reach.“It gives TV producers a hook. And so even though most of these books are, to be generous, pablum – filled with aphorisms and cliché – from the perspective of the candidate, it allows them to get their story out there, to put themselves before the public and to take a free media ride.”In short, these are not works of great literature, or even the sort of thing the great essayist Christopher Hitchens produced via “the junky energy that scotch can provide, and the intense short-term concentration that nicotine can help supply … crouched over a book or keyboard [in] mingled reverie and alertness”.It’s hard to picture evangelical hero Pence or culture warrior DeSantis like that, hunched over a desk, hammering out passages of memoir and policy to meet a publishing deadline. But perhaps their ghostwriters did.01:41The announcement this week of DeSantis’s book – The Courage to Be Free: Florida’s Blueprint for America’s Renewal – made the biggest splash. After all, the governor who won re-election in a landslide and declared his state “where woke goes to die” is Trump’s only serious polling rival.DeSantis has released a campaign book before, namely Dreams From Our Founding Fathers: First Principles in the Age of Obama, published in 2011 when he was aiming for Congress. According to his publisher, HarperCollins, the Ivy League-educated ex-navy lawyer will now offer “a first-hand account from the blue-collar boy who grew up to take on Disney and Dr Fauci”. True to DeSantis’s success in pursuing distinctly Trumpist policies, the announcement was replete with such culture-war themes.How to beat a book ban: students, parents and librarians fight backRead moreDaniel Uhlfelder, a former Democratic candidate for Florida attorney general, tweeted: “Ron DeSantis, who has led a statewide effort to ban books, is writing a book called The Courage to be Free. This is not a joke.”Trump books are a publishing phenomenon but books about what the agent Howard Yoon recently called the “milquetoast” Biden administration have not sold so well. Neither, it seems safe to say, will the flood of Republican books.Asked if she was eager to read DeSantis’s book, Molly Jong-Fast, host of the Fast Politics podcast, laughed and said, “Are you kidding me?” She also pointed to the common fate of such books: bulk sales to political groups rather than bookstore crowds.“The DeSantis book is something the Heritage Foundation gives people at a lunch, and then goes on a shelf. This is book that is swag. When the Kochs have their big shindig with donors, it’ll be given away. Of course, that means publishers at least know it will earn out the advance.”In sales terms, Pence has an advantage. His campaign book, So Help Me God, is also in large part a Trump book. Pence has refused to testify to the House January 6 committee but on the page he provides detailed if partial testimony, written from the rooms where it happened. The result was a New York Times bestseller.Jong-Fast said: “The reason to read his book is because he’s such a liar. I think if you went through with a fine-tooth comb, you could find a lot of inconsistencies. But … at least Pence is charismatic. The irony is he’s probably more charismatic than Ron DeSantis.”So Help Me God review: Mike Pence’s tortured bid for Republican relevanceRead moreIt is possible to write a good campaign book. Barack Obama wrote two. Dreams from My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance was published in 1995, as he set out for the Illinois senate. The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream, came two years before the presidential run of 2008.“And he probably read them,” Jong-Fast said. “And also he knows good writing. So many people don’t. The constant problem with conservatives is that you’ve alienated most of the writers. Remember, Trumpworld didn’t have any intellectuals because they couldn’t find any. The thought leader was Newt Gingrich.”Asked what Guardian readers might glean from the new campaign books, and from DeSantis in particular, Dallek said: “If you know nothing or little about him, you could probably learn about the biggest political fights he’s had, you could get a sense of the soundbites he likes to use, you know, his war against so-called woke culture. Probably some sense of a why he thinks Florida is the greatest place on Earth, some of the attacks he’s going to use against Joe Biden, if he were to run.“But it will not be the most informative place to go if you want to learn about Ron DeSantis. There are many other places, including profiles in the Guardian, that would probably be much more fruitful.”TopicsBooksUS politicsUS elections 2024RepublicansRon DeSantisMike PenceMike PompeonewsReuse this content More

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      Ron DeSantis book announcement a clear sign of presidential ambition

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      Ron DeSantis book announcement a clear sign of presidential ambitionFlorida governor expected to challenge Trump for Republican nod in 2024 will publish The Courage to Be Free in February In the clearest signal yet that Ron DeSantis is preparing a run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it was announced on Wednesday that the rightwing governor of Florida will publish a campaign-style book, mixing memoir with policy proposals.Republican Nikki Haley to decide on presidential bid over Christmas holidaysRead moreThe Courage to Be Free: Florida’s Blueprint for America’s Renewal, will be published by Broadside Books, a conservative imprint of HarperCollins, on 28 February.The governor, his publisher said, will offer readers “a first-hand account from the blue-collar boy who grew up to take on Disney and Dr Fauci”.DeSantis has not announced a 2024 run, but he is widely reported to be considering one. His victory speech after a landslide re-election this month met with chants of “Two more years!”The cover of the governor’s book shows him smiling broadly in front of a US flag.With Donald Trump under fire over disappointing midterms results, looming indictments and a controversial dinner with a white supremacist, possible Republican opponents are rapidly coming into focus.Mike Pence, Trump’s vice-president, has released a campaign-focused memoir, seeking to balance appeals to Trump’s supporters with distancing himself from the violent end to Trump’s time in office.Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of state, will release a book in the new year. Nikki Haley, the former UN ambassador who released a memoir in 2019, is also edging up to the starting line.Announcing DeSantis’s book, HarperCollins signaled a focus on the culture-war issues and theatrically cruel policy stunts that have propelled the governor to the front rank of potential candidates, alongside Trump in polls and sometimes ahead, prompting the former president to lash out.DeSantis clashed with Disney, a large employer in Florida, over legislation regarding the teaching of LGBTQ+ issues in schools, which was branded “don’t say gay” by critics.DeSantis’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, through which Anthony Fauci has advised two presidents, remains highly controversial. Florida has recorded nearly 83,000 deaths, third among US states in a national death toll approaching 1.1m.HarperCollins said DeSantis would “reveal” how he “accomplished more for his state” than any other “American leader”. Citing DeSantis’s graduation from Yale and Harvard, service in Iraq – as a navy lawyer – and election to Congress in 2012, the publisher said “in all these places, Ron DeSantis learned the same lesson: he didn’t want to be part of the leftist elite.”01:41“Since becoming governor of the sunshine state, he has fought – and won – battle after battle, defeating not just opposition from the political left, but a barrage of hostile media coverage,” it added.The announcement – which echoed numerous rightwing talking points on hot button social issues like Covid-19 and education – echoed DeSantis’s strident speech in Tallahassee earlier this month, after his easy win over the Democrat Charlie Crist, in which he proclaimed Florida the state “where woke goes to die”.HarperCollins also promised to “deliver something no other politician’s memoir has before: stories of victory”.That might seem to some a curious claim, given, for just one recent example, the publication just two years ago of A Promised Land, Barack Obama’s memoir of his rise to the presidency, significan legislative victories and preparations for his second presidential election win.TopicsBooksRon DeSantisUS elections 2024US politicsRepublicansFloridanewsReuse this content More

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      ‘They will bend the knee’: Lincoln project cofounder cautions against dismissing Trump

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      ‘They will bend the knee’: Lincoln project cofounder cautions against dismissing TrumpRick Wilson, a veteran Republican strategist, suggests the ex-president still holds sway despite multiple crises Donald Trump, the former US president, is all washed up. Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, is poised to dethrone him. This is the view currently in vogue among many in Washington.Not so fast, argues Rick Wilson, a veteran Republican strategist and co-founder of the Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump group that shot to prominence with go-for-the-jugular advertisements before becoming mired in scandals of its own.Who’s next? Republicans who might go up against Trump in 2024Read more“The greatest danger in American politics is not recognising that there are great dangers,” Wilson, who lives in Florida, says in a phone interview. “The same people in 2015 and 2016 were confidently asserting Donald Trump could never, ever under any circumstances win the Republican nomination, and there were never any circumstances where Donald Trump could beat Hillary Clinton, and then he could never have almost a million people die because of his mishandling of Covid and on and on and on and on.“I know that the Republicans who right now are acting very bold and the donors who are acting very frisky – as Trump starts winning primaries, they will bend the knee, they will break, they will fall, they will all come back into line.”When Trump scheduled his announcement of a third run for the White House this month, he had hoped to ride a “red wave” of midterm election successes and sweep aside potential rivals within the Republican party. But the red wave ebbed and his anticlimactic campaign launch had the opposite effect.With Trump at arguably his weakest point since last year’s January 6 insurrection, senior Republicans are criticising his losing habit, Rupert Murdoch’s media empire is ridiculing him and big money donors such as Ken Griffin and Stephen Schwarzman are deserting what they perceive as a sinking ship.The new conventional wisdom – or wishful thinking – among numerous pundits is that, after surviving crisis after crisis, Trump has finally met his Waterloo. A slew of federal, state and congressional investigations and opinion polls showing DeSantis ahead or level lend credence to this view.Some have noted, however, that Trump maintains an iron grip on his base and, just as in 2016, that might be enough to win a Republican primary race in which the anti-Trump vote is split among several candidates.Wilson, 59, author of the books Everything Trump Touches Dies and Running Against The Devil: A Plot To Save America from Trump and Democrats From Themselves, says: “He controls a quarter, at the minimum, of the Republican base. Even if it’s 15% and he goes into Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and he wins primaries because he has 15% going in, that’s the ballgame. It’s over. It’s done. Everybody else, it’s all over bar the crying.”He adds: “Right now they’re all talking so much shit: ‘I’m not going to get with Trump. I’m going to be with the hot new number, DeSantis.’ When DeSantis gets his ass handed to him, when he gets his clock cleaned in a debate or forum or just by Trump grinding away at him, eating him alive mentally for weeks on end, and suddenly Donald Trump’s numbers start posting up again, all the conservative thinkers who are right now like, ‘We will never vote for Trump again, we have integrity!’ will find themselves some excuse. ‘Well, you know, we don’t like Trump’s tweets, but otherwise it’s pure communism!’“It’s all bullshit, it’s all a fucking game, and that game is going to play out in a way that does not result in the outcome that the donor class thinks they’re going to get.”Wilson, who began his career on the 1988 presidential campaign of George HW Bush, worked as a consultant and political ad maker for numerous candidates and state parties. In December 2019 he and other Republican operatives founded the Lincoln Project, a political action committee that assailed Trump with a punch-in-the-mouth brio eschewed by “when they go low, we go high” Democrats.Some of the co-founders have acknowledged their part in the Republican party’s descent into bloodsport, hypocrisy and extremism. Wilson told an audience at the group’s launch event: “We have, as the great political philosopher Liam Neeson once said, a particular set of skills. Skills that make us a nightmare for people like Donald Trump.”He produced slick advertisements that got under the president’s skin and helped make the Lincoln Project the best known of the so-called Never Trump groups, raising tens of millions of dollars.But its meteoric rise was followed by an equally spectacular fall. The group’s co-founder John Weaver was revealed to have sent sexually charged messages to multiple men, sometimes with offers of employment or advancement. There were allegations of opaque accounting and financial impropriety that Wilson and others adamantly deny. A glut of high-profile figures resigned.But the Lincoln Project has survived in slimmed down form and continued to wage war on Trump and Trumpism in the midterms. Paradoxically, its continued relevance partly depends on Trump’s own; without him, it loses the principal reason for its creation. It has already launched attacks on DeSantis as a “new ultra-Maga megastar” who poses his own threat to American democracy.Living in the Florida state capital, Tallahassee, Wilson is ideally placed to take stock of the governor, a former US navy lawyer and congressman whose own brand of conservative populism and “anti-wokeness” helped him win re-election by nearly 20 percentage points over the Democrat Charlie Crist.He says: “Ron DeSantis won an election in Florida against a three-time loser, a campaign that was run by the best Republican party in the country, and I mean that because I’m a guy who helped over many years elect many people in the great state of Florida. The quality of our operation here made it look easy.“Has Ron DeSantis been to the rodeo? Has he been out there in the fight? Has he actually faced up against a full campaign of the brutality and the cruelty that Donald Trump will level against him? He has not. It’s like he’s walked on to the field on to third base and thought he hit a grand slam home run. It’s easy for Republicans to win in Florida. It’s how it’s supposed to be: we built it that way. In a Republican primary against Trump, even Trump in a weakened state still has an innate feral sense of cruelty and cunning that Ron DeSantis does not have. How does Trump know that? He watched the debate.”Wilson is referring to a gubernatorial debate in which Crist asked his opponent to commit to another full four-year term in the governor’s mansion; like a rabbit caught in headlights, DeSantis, 44, struggled to answer directly.“It was nine seconds of the gears moving in his head and you could see the agony on his face, like ‘I don’t know what to say.’ Trump never has a doubt. He may be an asshole but he never has a doubt. Ron is over-intellectualising it and I’m telling you: this guy has a glass jaw.”This, Wilson predicts, will become apparent on the debate stage, a setting where Florida Republicans such as Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio struggled against Trump in 2016. “All of a sudden, all that donor money is going to go, ‘Oh, fuck,’ and then they’re going to call Ron’s people and go, ‘Hey, listen, we love Ron but we’re worried. We’re gonna have to sit this one out for a little while. Let’s see what it looks like in a month.’“And then a month will pass and all of a sudden Donald Trump is the nominee. That’s how it’s going to go and I don’t say this out of any joy; I say this because I’ve just been to this fucking party too many times now.”Wilson also suggests that DeSantis may lack the personal touch and knack for retail politics that is crucial in a Republican primary. A recent New Yorker magazine profile noted several people describing “his lack of curiosity about others, his indifferent table manners, his aversion to the political rituals of dispensing handshakes and questions about the kids”.Wilson opines: “You’re telling me you’re going to send Ron DeSantis to New Hampshire where he has to go and sit in a diner with the Merrimack county GOP chairman and that 79-year-old codger is going to want to talk to Ron DeSantis about the gold standard or whatever and Ron DeSantis is going to sit there and get bored and restless and leave or be angry? I’m sorry. Sell me another fantasy of Ron DeSantis the perfect candidate.”TopicsRepublicansRon DeSantisDonald TrumpFloridaUS politicsHillary ClintonUS elections 2016featuresReuse this content More

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      Elon Musk says he will back Trump rival Ron DeSantis in 2024 if he runs for president

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      Elon Musk says he will back Trump rival Ron DeSantis in 2024 if he runs for presidentBillionaire says he prefers ‘someone sensible and centrist’ but that he had been disappointed by the Democrats so far Elon Musk has said he would support Donald Trump’s arch rival, Ron DeSantis, in 2024 if the Florida governor were to run for president.“Yes”, Musk said in a tweet when asked if he would support DeSantis in 2024, after suggesting he had not found his ideal candidate among Democrats.Elon Musk to launch new blue, gold and grey Twitter ticksRead more“My preference for the 2024 presidency is someone sensible and centrist. I had hoped that would the case for the Biden administration, but have been disappointed so far,” Musk tweeted.The entrepreneur’s remarks are the clearest sign of his political backing after he indicated in June this year that he was still mulling his Republican preference for president but that he was “leaning towards” DeSantis.The move may prove a boost for DeSantis in what Republicans expect to be a bruising battle between Trump and DeSantis for presidential nomination, with some predicting “a lot of blood on the floor” in a fight between the two. The Florida governor won a landslide in this month’s midterm elections, while Trump was criticised for the Republicans’ failure to deliver the much-promised “red wave” after the defeat of key candidates he endorsed.Musk also said on Friday night that he was “fine with Trump not tweeting” after having his account reinstated last weekend. “The important thing is that Twitter correct a grave mistake in banning his account, despite no violation of the law or terms of service. Deplatforming a sitting president undermined public trust in Twitter for half of America.”Twitter banned Trump after the January 6 attack last year, saying his posts were “highly likely to encourage and inspire people to replicate the criminal acts that took place at the US Capitol”. Trump was also banned from Facebook, Instagram and YouTube after the riot.Musk’s tenure at Twitter has been turbulent, with the owner admitting that Twitter has suffered a “massive” drop in advertising revenue amid concerns about his plans for moderating content on the platform, including the fate of banned accounts.He has told Twitter employees that “roughly half” of the platform’s revenues need to come from subscriptions in order to “survive the upcoming economic downturn”. According to Twitter’s last set of annual results, advertising accounted for 90% of its $5.1bn in revenues.With ReutersTopicsElon MuskRon DeSantisDonald TrumpTwitterUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      Trump v DeSantis: how ex-president’s fan could be his biggest rival – podcast

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      Florida governor Ron DeSantis passionately praised the former president – now he is being talked about as a possible presidential candidate himself.

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      When he was first running for governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis was fulsome in his admiration for Donald Trump. The Yale-educated, Catholic family man may have a very different background to the glamour-loving businessman, but politically they soon became entwined. But as Trump’s star has waned, DeSantis has shone brighter. In the midterms, Trump-backed candidates performed poorly, while DeSantis won a resounding victory to become re-elected governor of Florida with his focus on culture war issues. Yet as DeSantis has grown in political popularity, relations between him and Trump have cooled. Now many are talking of DeSantis as a potential Republican candidate for the presidential elections in 2024 – just as Trump announced his own bid. Is DeSantis ready to take on his former idol – and, if he does, what could a bitter battle between the two Republicans mean for the party and US politics? More

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      Wednesday briefing: Trump announces his third presidential bid – but can he win?

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      Wednesday briefing: Trump announces his third presidential bid – but can he win?In today’s newsletter: The former president wants to make American great again … again. Here’s what he said, how it was received and what the arguments are for and against – gulp – Trump 2024

      Sign up here for our daily newsletter, First Edition
      Good morning. To many observers in the Republican party, Donald Trump was the single biggest drag on their hugely disappointing performance in last week’s US midterm elections. Trump has listened, weighed the available evidence, undertaken a searching examination of his own role in the debacle, and – you are not going to believe this – concluded that he disagrees. Instead, he told an enthusiastic audience at Mar-a-Lago overnight, “in order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States.”Persuaded of his own magnificence though Trump is, there are many good reasons to think that his return is extremely bad news for the Republican party. And yet. With the help of the Guardian US reporting team, today’s newsletter will run you through what the former president said, how it was received and what the arguments are for and against – gulp – Trump 2024. That’s after the headlines.Five big stories
      Russia | Joe Biden has said that a missile that landed in Poland killing two people on Tuesday was “unlikely” to have been fired from Russia due to its trajectory. Amid alarm over at the implications of any attack on Nato territory, Moscow has denied responsibility, while Poland would only say that the missiles appeared to be “Russian-made”.
      Cop27 | Fear of countries backsliding on their commitments to tackle the climate crisis dominated the Cop27 UN climate talks in Egypt on Tuesday, as the first tentative drafts started to emerge of key potential decisions. Documents and proposals seen by the Guardian showed some countries attempting to unpick agreements and water down commitments.
      Housing | The death of Awaab Ishak, an “engaging, lively, endearing” two-year-old, was a result of chronic mould in his family’s social housing flat in Rochdale, an inquest said. The coroner said Awaab’s tragic death should be a “defining moment” for the housing sector.
      G20 | Rishi Sunak will extend Britain’s hand to China for the first time in almost five years, asking for closer relations on energy and the economy in a meeting with president Xi Jinping on Tuesday. The move risks a backlash from Conservative MPs who have had sanctions imposed upon them by Beijing.
      Egypt | Alaa Abd el-Fattah, the British-Egyptian democracy activist in jail in Egypt, has said in a letter to his family that he has ended his six-month hunger strike.
      In depth: ‘It feels very strange to be back here again’Trump’s advisers had hoped his speech might be limited to 45 minutes: in the event, he continued for more than an hour. David Smith sent a voice note from the Mar-a-Lago ballroom shortly after he finished. Trump’s confirmation of his intention to run “prompted an eruption of cheers and whistles from several hundred guests under the crystal chandeliers,” he said, but “apart from that I think the general consensus here is that it was a pretty low energy speech … unusually for anyone who’s been to one of his rallies, it was at times quite boring.”There were some characteristically wild moments, like his vow that drug dealers will “receive the death penalty for their heinous acts”. But overall, David said, “I did not see much at Mar-a-Lago tonight that is going to rattle Joe Biden or potential Republican rivals in the primary.” You can read David’s sketch, in which he compares Trump to “an ageing champ returning to centre court only to find he’s holding a wooden racket,” here.It feels “very strange to be back here again”, said Guardian US political correspondent Lauren Gambino. After disappointing midterm results, “there are all these questions about what the future of the party should look like, and he’s just really pulling them back to 2020”.Here are some arguments for and against Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination.Why Trump’s not the force he was1 He was a drag on Republicans in the midtermsIf ideological or ethical concerns have never been enough to wean the GOP off Trump, cold electoral arithmetic might be. The party has now failed in three elections in a row with him as its figurehead. In a midterm year which by any historic guide should have been a success for the “out” party, Republicans failed to capture the Senate and will only squeak the narrowest of victories in the House of Representatives.Trump ignored those disappointments, instead celebrating: “Nancy Pelosi has been fired. Isn’t that nice?” But whatever he says, it looks as if his influence was a crucial reason for the failure. In this analysis for the Washington Post, Philip Wallach, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, writes that in competitive races, candidates with Trump endorsements fared around seven percentage points worse than those he didn’t support.2 He’s lost important support in the media and party establishmentUntil recently, Trump could count on the near-unanimous backing of the conservative media in the US. Now, as Adam Gabbatt writes in his analysis of rightwing media coverage, there have been signs that Rupert Murdoch’s empire may have turned on the former president, who was branded “Trumpty Dumpty” by the New York Post and called “the Republican party’s biggest loser” by the Wall Street Journal.On Fox News last night, Adam writes, “it seemed that not everyone was ready to let Trump go”. But there were still nuances to the coverage which would once have been unimaginable.“Fox News has been tied so closely to Trump for so long that an immediate ditching was always unlikely – but there were some small signs through the evening that perhaps they’re pulling away,” Adam said in a voice note. He pointed to an interview with possible rival Mike Pence, a “quite subdued” appearance from longtime supporter Sean Hannity, and the decision to cut away from Trump’s speech to analysis even as it continued.“I think in previous years if Trump had a big announcement to make at 9 o’clock, that’s, like, three hours of Fox News coverage sorted – just Trump, Trump, Trump. It wasn’t that.”It’s not just the media: for one example of how the party establishment feels more able to take on Trump, see this story from Monday on Politico, which notes that the influential Club for Growth – once a reliable Trump cheerleader – has pushed out polling data showing him trailing rival Ron DeSantis in key primary states. Even his daughter Ivanka says she will not be part of the 2024 campaign.3 He has a viable rival on the far rightDeSantis (below) was one of the Republican party’s few big winners on election night, beating his Democratic rival by almost 20 points in the race to be governor of Florida. DeSantis is a threat to Trump precisely because he hews pretty closely to his extreme ideology without the former president’s baggage or unpredictability – and a YouGov poll shows him with a seven-point lead among Republican voters nationally.Trump’s nickname for the man he views as the only serious threat to his domination of the Republican party, Ron DeSanctimonious, is pretty funny – but Republican voters may ask themselves if they wouldn’t prefer a more “normal” politician who, at 44, also presents a helpful generational contrast with 79-year-old Joe Biden. For more on the Trump-DeSantis rivalry, see this piece from yesterday by Chris McGreal. And Martin Pengelly has a guide to the other likely candidates.Why he might be the candidate anyway1 He wasn’t the Republicans’ only problem in the midtermsWhile Trump was undoubtedly an issue for Republican candidates, there are sound arguments that the party’s difficulties were not limited to his influence. In the American Conservative, the successful Trump-endorsed Senate candidate in Ohio, JD Vance, argues that blaming the former president ignores the Democrats’ advantage in “small-dollar fundraising” and calls Republican efforts “paltry by comparison”. While the overall fundraising picture is complex, Axios reported that in the 10 most competitive Senate races, Republicans were outraised by $75m among small-dollar donors.It may be hard to wholly separate fundraising from Trump’s influence as rallying force for Democrats. But Vance argues that the best way to solve the problem is to “build a turnout machine” and that the party has “one major asset … to rally these voters: President Donald Trump”. (Unsurprisingly, Trump agrees: he has blamed the GOP establishment, the electoral system, the candidates themselves and reportedly, for her alleged role in leading him to support doomed Senate candidate Mehmet Oz, his wife, Melania.)2 He can still win the nomination without being very popularA presidential election is another question – but in the contest for the Republican nomination, Trump can prevail with the highly motivated minority of Republican voters who still prefer him to any other candidate. Republican pollsters estimate that proportion of GOP primary voters at between one-third and 40%. In 2016, Trump won the Republican primary with about 45% of the vote overall, and many states with less than that. Until DeSantis or anyone else proves they can defeat him with voters, he remains a very serious candidate for the nomination.3 He’s been underestimated beforeIt would be foolish to write off the extensive evidence that Trump’s star is on the wane – but past experience suggests that it would be equally unwise to write him off so early. Meanwhile, there is no sign that the Republican party is thinking hard about what a successful political message that repudiates Trumpism would look like.One plausible theory is that despite his many disadvantages, his supporters are less interested in winning elections than in maintaining their love affair with the politician who tells them they’re right about everything. “It’s tempting to see the strength of the Maga forces ebbing at last, the calendar leaf turning over on the Trump era,” Tom Scocca wrote for the New York Times this week. “But how do you declare defeat for a movement that is built around refusing to accept defeat?”Extremely onlineFor a raucous summary of how Elon Musk’s ownership of Twitter has gone so far, look no further than this exhaustive thread from @christapeterso. Features Mario giving the finger, and Musk on the future of the company: “We all need to be more hardcore.”What else we’ve been reading
      Once you’ve read Dan Hancox’s account of “proper binmen” memes, you’ll see the past and the present differently. Beautifully written, subtle and featuring a three-paragraph rendition of the sweep of the “baby boomer nostalgia industrial complex” that could hardly be bettered. Archie
      India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has presented himself as a committed environmentalist who wants his country to embrace renewable energy, all while unveiling plans to increase coal production to 1bn tonnes a year. Hannah Ellis-Petersen dives into India’s energy conundrum. Nimo
      Ageing gamers like me have much to learn from Keith Stuart’s guide to surviving an online ecosystem ruled by trigger-happy teens. As with most things for the over-30s, it comes down to not running, spending a lot of money on equipment and hiding as much as possible. Archie
      David Squires’ cartoon on the death of Qatar World Cup worker Rupchandra Rumba by “natural causes”, building on the reporting of Pete Pattisson, makes the brutal conditions faced by those who made the tournament possible inescapable. And read Pattisson’s piece on what he’s learned in reporting on migrant workers’ plight. Archie
      In this hilarious and honest Q&A, Liam Pape spoke to the comedian Sara Pascoe about the best and worst advice she’s ever received, her relationship with feminism and her new show Success Story. Nimo
      SportWorld Cup | Gay Qataris have been promised safety from torture in exchange for helping authorities track down other LGBTQ+ people, a prominent Qatari campaigner told the Guardian. Dr Nasser Mohamed said foreign gay fans would not face prosecution during the tournament but warned that gay Qataris faced a very different reality.Football | England’s Lionesses could not find a 17th victory of the year but signed off on an unbeaten 2022 with a 1-1 draw against Norway, who equalised late on despite the sending off of Anja Sønstevold.Cricket | Simon Burnton’s review of the T20 World Cup reflects on the tournament’s thrilling unpredictability – the Netherlands v South Africa for best match? – and asks the hard questions of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.The front pagesOur Guardian print edition leads with “Russian barrage strikes Ukraine amid claims missiles hit Poland”. The front-page picture is Awaab Ishak, not even two, who died from mould in the family flat. Of that, the Daily Express says “Tragic death of boy from mould shames Britain”. The Times has “Russians blamed for fatal strike on Poland” while the Daily Mirror says “Russian bombs hit Poland” under the banner “Tyrant’s war on Ukraine” with a picture of Vladimir Putin. “Putin’s war spills into Poland” – that’s the i, while the Daily Telegraph has “Russian missile strikes Poland”. The Metro says “Putin’s war escalates – ‘Russian missiles’ hit Poland”. In the Financial Times, it’s “Sunak urges bosses to curb their pay and look after staff”. The culture wars are back on in the Daily Mail: “Universities are told to ‘decolonise’ maths and computing”. And the footballer Ronaldo has told the Sun that “I keep our baby Angel’s ashes. I talk to him all the time”.Today in FocusReclaiming Kherson: what Russia’s retreat reveals about the fight for UkraineUkrainians have reacted with jubilation after retaking Kherson city and the region around it. But what did living under Russian occupation do to the area and its people – and is this really the beginning of the end of the war?Cartoon of the day | Martin RowsonThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badCorals that were planted in 2017 at Fitzroy Island on the Great Barrier Reef have spawned for the first time. They were planted as part of a pilot programme testing the benefits of offshore “coral nurseries” – the hopes were that the corals that were grown from fragments that had survived mass bleaching would be resilient to heatwaves in the future. The spawning has been described as a “beautiful milestone” in the journey to recovering Australia’s corals. So far the Reef Restoration Foundation has established 33 coral nurseries to help the health of the reef on a small localised scale.Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
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      TopicsDonald TrumpFirst EditionRepublicansUS politicsUS midterm elections 2022Ron DeSantisnewslettersReuse this content More