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      ‘It’s time to move on’: have the US midterms finally loosened Trump’s grip on the Republican party?

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      Analysis‘It’s time to move on’: have the US midterms finally loosened Trump’s grip on the Republican party?Chris McGreal in Columbus, Ohio and David Smith in WashingtonAfter the party came up short in another election, Ron DeSantis may be poised to become its new leader Sitting at the head table in a white and gold ballroom, beneath glistening chandeliers and an ornately corniced ceiling, Donald Trump looked sullen as midterm election results flashed up on a giant TV screen.Across Florida, 200 miles from his opulent Mar-a-Lago estate, the mood was quite different. In Tampa, Governor Ron DeSantis was celebrating his landslide re-election by repurposing lines from Winston Churchill.“We fight the woke in the legislature,” DeSantis declared as his photogenic young family looked on against a stars and stripes backdrop. “We fight the woke in the schools. We fight the woke in the corporations. We will never, ever surrender to the woke mob. Florida is where woke goes to die.”‘Ron DeSanctimonious’: angry Trump lashes out at Republican rival Read moreAs the jubilant crowd chanted “two more years!”, suggesting that DeSantis, not Trump, should run for US president in 2024, was this the moment that power slipped inexorably from one to the other – that the Republican crown passed from old king to young pretender?Some in the party are ready to declare it so. David Urban, a longtime Trump ally, told the Washington Post: “It is clear the center of gravity of the Republican party is in the state of Florida, and I don’t mean Mar-a-Lago.”If such a shift has taken place, it did so gradually, then suddenly. Since he descended an escalator at his New York headquarters in June 2015, Trump has dominated and defined the Republican party, crushing rivals in the Republican primary then eking out a victory over Hillary Clinton to seize the White House.But the party of Trump suffered drubbings at the ballot box in 2018 and 2020. And despite forecasts of a “red wave” in 2022, it fell short again. From Michigan to Pennsylvania, novice candidates endorsed by the former president proved they were unready for prime time and too extreme for a wary and weary electorate.Finally, some Republicans admitted what everyone else could see: Trump is an albatross around the party’s neck. Virginia’s lieutenant governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, once a vocal supporter, told the Fox Business channel: “The voters have spoken and they have said that they want a different leader. And a true leader understands when they have become a liability. A true leader understands that it’s time to step off the stage. It is time to move on.”Rupert Murdoch already has, it seems. “Trumpty Dumpty”, boomed the front page of his tabloid the New York Post. “Trump is the Republican party’s biggest loser” was the verdict of the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board. A column on the Fox News website proclaimed: “Ron DeSantis is the new Republican party leader. Republicans are ready to move on without Donald Trump.”Indeed, if Trump was the big loser of the night, DeSantis was the big winner. His victory by nearly 20 percentage points was a personal vindication that appeared to put Florida, once the quintessential swing state, beyond Democrats’ reach for a generation.His stunning wins in big, majority Latino counties, including Miami-Dade and Osceola, set him up to make the case that, as a presidential candidate, he could repeat the formula in states such as as Arizona, Nevada and Texas. “We have rewritten the political map,” he told supporters.A DeSantis 2024 campaign would also promise generational change. At 44, the former navy lawyer and congressman would be similar in age to John F Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama when they ran for the White House, a sharp contrast from 76-year-old Trump or Joe Biden, who is turning 80 this month.Crucially, DeSantis could sell himself as Trump 2.0, an upgrade committed to the same “America first” policy agenda, media sparring and liberal-baiting (he recently flew Venezuelan migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard) but without the liability of multiple federal, state and congressional investigations.He could also break from Trump over the coronavirus pandemic, contending that he kept Florida open while the then president was urging lockdowns. Tim Miller, former communications director for Jeb Bush 2016, said: “He would try to paint Trump as somebody that lost, is a loser and is costing the party. He’d probably criticise Trump for not being stronger on Covid and say he should have fired [Dr Anthony] Fauci.”DeSantis is especially popular with conservatives for taking the lead on “culture war” issues related to race and gender. Last year he got into a spat with the Walt Disney Company over his support of the controversial law, nicknamed “don’t say gay” by opponents, prohibiting the teaching of gender identity concepts to young children.But if you come at the king, you best not miss. Trump has spent months preparing to strangle the DeSantis campaign at birth. At a campaign rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, last weekend, he casually rolled out a nickname, “Ron DeSanctimonious”, hoping to brand his opponent as he has so many before.On Tuesday, menacingly, he told Fox News: “I think if he runs, he could hurt himself very badly. I really believe he could hurt himself badly. I would tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering – I know more about him than anybody – other than, perhaps, his wife.”And on Thursday, with DeSantis buzz reaching a crescendo, Trump lashed out in a lengthy and angry statement berating Fox News and other Murdoch-controlled media for going “all in for Governor Ron DeSanctimonious DeSantis”, whom he called “an average REPUBLICAN Governor with great Public Relations”, as he again took credit for DeSantis’s 2018 win.“Well, in terms of loyalty and class, that’s really not the right answer,” he wrote, comparing the race to his winning 2016 campaign. “We’re in exactly the same position now. They will keep coming after us, MAGA, but ultimately, we will win. Put America First and, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”Soon after, he invited reporters to a “Special Announcement” at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday night, presumably confirming that he is mounting a third consecutive bid for the White House. Some allies were quick to offer pre-endorsements, with Elise Stefanik, the Republican chair in the House of Representatives, declaring herself on team Trump.JD Vance, who won a Senate senate race in Ohio with Trump’s backing, did likewise. And at a rally for Vance in Dayton the night before the elections, many supporters sporting Make America Great Again hats and T-shirts were hoping for Trump to announce his candidacy there and then.But even within a crowd of enthusiastic fans there were those who had doubts. Mandy Young said: “I think Trump was a great president but I don’t think he can win again. He is too divisive. The independents who voted for him before won’t vote for him again because of all the investigations.“Also, I don’t like the way he called DeSantis ‘DeSanctimonious’. I think DeSantis would be a great president. It makes me think Trump doesn’t care about the Republican party winning, only himself. He should step back. He would still have a lot of influence as a respected godfather giving advice.”On election day, Jeffrey Weisman, a consistent Republican supporter because he says the party is better for the economy and his jewellery store business, voted at the biggest Greek Orthodox church in Columbus, Ohio.Weisman supported Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections but would prefer the former president stayed out of the next one. “I like DeSantis. Having Trump going out there as well I think will hurt DeSantis’s chances. So for that reason, I do not want Trump to run,” he said.The strengths and weaknesses of Trump’s influence were on display in Ohio’s election for US senator. The former president’s endorsement of Vance pulled the bestselling author of Hillbilly Elegy and venture capitalist from the back of the field in the Republican primaries and won him the nomination. But Trump’s backing then dragged down support for Vance in Tuesday’s general election, even if he won.Mark R Weaver, a Republican strategist in Columbus, who has worked on several hundred state and national campaigns, said that has implications for any challenge from DeSantis both in Ohio and across the country.“Trump’s ability to improve a candidate’s chances is weakening. He’s no longer able to guarantee or even predict someone he endorses is going to win. Whatever charm he had has worn off, certainly in the general elections. In the primaries, he can still be a big factor. In Ohio he was.”Weaver said that while Trump would still win a Republican contest for the presidential nomination against DeSantis if it were held today, that may not be true by the time the primaries actually begin in early 2024.He said: “I have noticed a slow descent of Donald Trump’s popularity amongst Republicans. I’ve noticed a rapid ascent of Ron DeSantis’s popularity.“If those two trajectories continue, Trump slowly getting weaker and people looking for better options, and DeSantis quickly getting stronger and having more people support him, the trajectory lines could cross right about March of 2024. That sounds like a crazy statement right now but if those trajectories cross, Ron DeSantis can beat Trump in the primaries in 2024.”Trump’s political obituary has been written by Republican elites countless times before only to prove wishful thinking. An Access Hollywood tape in which he boasted about groping women’s private parts couldn’t do it. His half-hearted condemnation of a white supremacist march in Charlottesville, Virginia, couldn’t do it. His proposal that injecting bleach might cure coronavirus couldn’t do it. Even his incitement of a coup attempt at the US Capitol couldn’t do it. Can DeSantis do it by appealing to the bottom line: electability?Tara Setmayer, a senior adviser to the Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump group, said: “I’ve always said that the Republican party would not fully respond to offloading Trump until they lost enough elections. Political actors are single seekers in re-election, and once their power is threatened, that is usually where a course correction happens.“But they’ve gotten themselves into quite a quagmire with Donald Trump because he still has a solid 30%, at least, base of support, and that is large enough to still create headaches for the party if they try to offload him.”Setmayer, a former Republican communications director on Capitol Hill, added: “They also do not have a formidable enough heir apparent. It is not Ron DeSantis. Ron DeSantis is a paper tiger who was created and propped up by Donald Trump. He does not have the political talent, the charisma or the toughness to take on the onslaught coming his way from Trumpworld. It’s already beginning.”Joe Walsh, a former Republican congressman from Illinois, agreed. “Trump would eat him alive,” he said. “Right now Trump is still the dominant player in the Republican party. Most of the base is still with him. DeSantis is utterly untested. He’s weird. He has zero charisma. He’s thin skinned. He can’t think on his feet. He’s never been tested and he’s easily offended. Trump will do and say anything.”Walsh, who challenged Trump in the 2020 Republican primary, added: “Trump’s the king. If you try to slay the king and you don’t, your career is over. That’s a huge, huge risk a 44-year-old guy like DeSantis would be taking.”They are not alone in arguing that, while DeSantis is like Trump without the chaos, he is also Trump without the charisma. The former president’s rallies are rollicking, knockabout affairs that give his fans community, entertainment and laughs. DeSantis is said to be unskilled in retail politics and somewhat humourless.Jennifer Mercieca, a professor in the communication and journalism department at Texas A&M University, said: “Donald Trump is an authoritarian PT Barnum. He’s able to keep our attention and curiosity. He’s got great comedic timing. He has a good sense of drama and Ron DeSantis doesn’t have that kind of easily translatable appeal for media audiences. His affect is flat. He’s not as entertaining.“The thing about Donald Trump is that he’s really entertaining. He’s good at keeping our attention and primarily he does that through outrage and things that are very negative for politics and political problem solving. But in terms of a matchup between those two, I would put money on Trump.”Trump has shown himself perfectly capable of going scorched earth and burning the whole party down. A ferociously nasty bareknuckle primary fight between him and DeSantis will have Democrats reaching for the popcorn. At a valedictory press conference at the White House, Biden seemed amused at the prospect. “It’ll be fun watching them take on each other,” he said.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022Donald TrumpRon DeSantisRepublicansFloridaUS elections 2024US politicsanalysisReuse this content More

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      Who were the big winners and losers of the US midterm elections?

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      Who were the big winners and losers of the US midterm elections?Biden and DeSantis are on the up, but Donald Trump and some of the Republicans’ more unhinged candidates flopped After months of campaigning and billions of dollars spent on advertising, the message from America’s midterm elections could essentially be boiled down to: “Not as bad as Democrats feared.”There were big wins for Republicans in Florida, and the party still seems likely to take the House, but elsewhere candidates endorsed by former president Donald Trump flopped, and there were key victories for supporters of reproductive rights.As Trump licks his wounds after being compared to an egg on legs by a Rupert Murdoch-owned newspaper, and as Democrats celebrate avoiding a predicted “red wave”, here’s a look at who did well, and who suffered.WINNERSJoe Biden, US presidentMuch of the talk ahead of last Tuesday’s elections was about how Biden might tank the Democratic party’s candidates. Republicans across the country ran ads tying their opponents to Biden, banking that the unloved president would turn off voters. It didn’t work, as Democrats performed much better than expected across the board. Biden remains very unpopular – his approval rating dropped to 39% in a Reuters poll this week – but that doesn’t seem to be hindering his party. The results prompted Biden, who turns 80 later this month, to repeat his recent assertions that he will run for a second term as president in two years’ time.Ron DeSantis, Republican Florida governorIt’s not just that the Florida governor won re-election, in what is supposed to be a swing state, by almost 20 points. In the process, DeSantis, 44, has also found himself anointed by the rightwing media as the future of the Republican party – in the case of the New York Post, quite literally: “DeFuture”, blasted the front page of the tabloid on Wednesday morning. DeSantis, an anti-immigrant, anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ+ rights Republican, is seen as a more palatable, less hysterical version of Donald Trump. He has been cagey about whether he will run for president in 2024, but if DeSantis does want to launch a campaign, then this was a pretty good way to start.John Fetterman, Democrat Senate candidateThree years ago John Fetterman was mayor of Braddock, a town of fewer than 2,000 people. On Tuesday he was elected to the US Senate, and will represent 13 million Pennsylvanians. It has been a remarkable rise, made all the more astonishing by the fact Fetterman had a stroke days before the Democratic primary in May. The 6ft 8in, tattooed, permanently hoodie-clad senator-elect is still recovering – he relied on closed captioning to process questions in a debate in October – but overcame a stiff challenge from Trump-backed Mehmet Oz to win relatively easily on Tuesday. Fetterman, who has previously said he owns only one suit, is going to have to do some clothes shopping.Reproductive rightsAway from the noise and intrigue about Republican and Democratic candidates and races, Michigan voters approved a ballot measure to secure a constitutional right to abortion, blocking the imposition of a 1931 abortion ban in the state. In Kentucky, voters rejected a measure which would have denied constitutional protections for abortion. North Carolina Republicans failed to secure a majority which would have enabled them to ram through restrictive abortion bans, and it was a similar story in Wisconsin, where the re-elected Democratic governor, Tony Evers, will have the power to veto abortion laws proposed by the state legislature.LOSERSDonald TrumpThe one-term, twice-impeached president had a shocker of an evening, as one after another, many of his endorsed candidates flopped in key races across the country. The fact that many of the Republicans Trump had backed lost isn’t the only thing that will sting. Several of Trump’s people underperformed in states – including New Hampshire and Georgia – where Republicans who had not been anointed by Trump triumphed. To top it all off, Rupert Murdoch seems to have turned on Trump. On Thursday the New York Post, a Murdoch-owned tabloid, mocked up an image of Trump as Humpty Dumpty. “Don (who couldn’t build a wall) had a great fall – can all the GOP’s men put the party back together again?” read the accompanying text.Republicans – outside Florida and New YorkWith an unpopular Democratic president, soaring inflation, high gas prices and widespread doom and gloom about the economy, this was supposed to be the night that Republicans swept through Congress in a “red wave”. They didn’t. By Friday, with votes still being tallied in some states, the Republican party was still short of a majority in the House and the Senate, as Democrats out-performed expectations across the country. There were some exceptions. In Florida both DeSantis and Marco Rubio, the state’s incumbent senator, cruised to victory, and Republicans flourished in state-level races too. It was, the Tampa Bay Times declared, “an electoral catastrophe for Democrats”.(Some of) the unhinged candidatesIn Pennsylvania Doug Mastriano, a Christian nationalist state senator who paid for buses to take people to what became the January 6 insurrection and tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election, was swept away in the governor’s race. Matthew DePerno, a fellow election conspiracy theorist who had branded Democrats “radical, cultural Marxists” lost his bid to be Michigan’s attorney general, and his ideological counterpart Kristina Karamo failed to become secretary of state. Tina Forte, a Republican who attended the January 6 rally and has dabbled in QAnon conspiracy theories, was crushed in her attempt to defeat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the Democratic congresswoman, in New York.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022Donald TrumpUS politicsRepublicansDemocratsAbortionJoe BidenfeaturesReuse this content More

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      Has ‘Trumpty Dumpty’ taken a great fall from Rupert Murdoch’s grace?

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      AnalysisHas ‘Trumpty Dumpty’ taken a great fall from Rupert Murdoch’s grace?Adam Gabbatt in New YorkMurdoch-owned media have not held back against the former president in the wake of Republicans’ disappointing midterms On election day, Donald Trump was clear about how his efforts to support Republican candidates should be seen.“Well, I think if they win, I should get all the credit,” Trump told NewsNation. “If they lose, I should not be blamed at all.”Jared Kushner: I stopped Trump attacking Murdoch in 2015Read moreUnfortunately for Trump, he did not get what he hoped for. Instead the former president has seen conservative news outlets, the Rupert Murdoch-owned ones in particular, turn on him, in some cases with gleeful abandon.“Trumpty Dumpty” blared the front page of Thursday’s New York Post, the tabloid Murdoch has owned since 1976. Editors went so far as to mock up Trump as Humpty Dumpty, his enlarged orange head stuffed into a white shirt and a signature red tie.Today’s cover: Here’s how Donald Trump sabotaged the Republican midterms https://t.co/YUtDosSGfp pic.twitter.com/vpI94nKuBh— New York Post (@nypost) November 10, 2022
      Next to the picture of Trump as an egg perching precariously on a brick wall, the text goaded: “Don (who couldn’t build a wall) had a great fall – can all the GOP’s men put the party back together again?”The Post cover offered the most visceral insight into Murdoch’s thinking, and its contempt was far from an outlier in the mogul’s news empire.“Trump Is the Republican Party’s Biggest Loser” was the verdict of the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board. A subheading added: “He has now flopped in 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022.”The piece was just as scathing as the headline, running through nine races this November the paper said Trump had effectively tanked through his continued election denial, his various wars with more moderate Republican candidates and his general unpopularity nationwide.“Since his unlikely victory in 2016 against the widely disliked Hillary Clinton, Mr Trump has a perfect record of electoral defeat,” the editorial said.“The GOP was pounded in the 2018 midterms owing to his low approval rating. Mr Trump himself lost in 2020. He then sabotaged Georgia’s 2021 runoffs by blaming party leaders for not somehow overturning his defeat.”It added: “Now Mr Trump has botched the 2022 elections, and it could hand Democrats the Senate for two more years.”Trump-backed candidates lost in several key states on Tuesday, including Pennsylvania, where Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor running for Senate, and Doug Mastriano, an election-denying extremist running for governor, were both thwarted.What was most crushing for Trump were the states where candidates he endorsed were outperformed by those he hadn’t.In New Hampshire, Trump-backed Don Bolduc lost decisively to his Democratic opponent, incumbent US senator Maggie Hassan. Chris Sununu, the Republican governor who did not receive Trump’s endorsement, won re-election easily, by more than 15 points.Herschel Walker, the retired football star endorsed by Trump in Georgia for the Senate, will head to a runoff against Raphael Warnock, the Democratic incumbent, after neither man won more than 50% of the vote. Brian Kemp, the unendorsed Republican, cruised to victory in the governor’s race against Stacey Abrams, his Democratic opponent.Murdoch had his doubts about Trump before the businessman and reality TV star ran for president in 2016. Even when Trump won, Murdoch was unconvinced, reportedly privately calling him a “fucking idiot” following one conversation about immigration.Some Murdoch outlets, including Fox News, notably backed away from Trump over the summer, giving him less airtime. In her book Confidence Man: The Making of Donald Trump and the Breaking of America, Maggie Haberman, a reporter for the New York Times, said Murdoch had been keen to wash his hands of Trump after the 2020 election.“‘We should throw this guy over,’ Murdoch said of Trump, exhausted by Trump’s refusal to concede and his almost manic speech on election night,” Haberman wrote.But the speed and comprehensiveness of this week’s step-away still came as a surprise. There was a sense it was preplanned, that Murdoch subordinates decided in advance not just that Trump was done, but also on the identity of their new man.The day before Trump was presented as an egg on legs in the New York Post, the paper celebrated the re-election of Ron DeSantis, the Trump-esque Florida governor rumored to be planning a presidential run, with a front page which declared him “DeFuture”.Even Fox News, once Trump’s safe space, the TV network where he would often just call in for a chat, seems to have officially moved on.The channel offered scant defense of Trump in its analysis of election night, while on the Fox News website, the article leading the opinion page on Thursday was headlined: “Ron DeSantis is the new Republican party leader.”“The biggest winner of the midterm elections was Ron DeSantis. The biggest loser was Donald Trump,” the piece said. “Many will conclude, on the basis of the midterm 2022 results, that the Republican party is ready to move on, without Donald Trump as its leader.”It seems Rupert Murdoch already has.TopicsDonald TrumpRupert MurdochRepublicansUS politicsRon DeSantisanalysisReuse this content More

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      Trump paved Ron DeSantis’s way. Now apprentice has turned on master | Cas Mudde

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      Trump paved Ron DeSantis’s way. Now apprentice has turned on masterCas MuddeTrump unleashed a revolution that opened the door to people like DeSantis. Now the Florida governor and his supporters want to continue that revolution without its original leader The day after the midterm elections, the knives were out for Donald Trump. On rightwing social media, people were emotionally debating the alleged toxicity of the former president and his hand-picked nominees, while Fox News highlighted the victory of the Georgia secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, emphasizing that he is “reviled by Trump”, while heralding the “dominating win” of the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis. A Fox News contributor pronounced DeSantis “the new Republican party leader”. In fact, the idea that DeSantis is the big Republican winner of the midterms – and Trump the big loser – seems to be the broad consensus in today’s media.There is, of course, at least one dissonant voice: Trump himself. Sensing that the tables are turning rapidly, he went on Fox News to warn DeSantis to stay out of the 2024 presidential election. In his typical mafioso way, Trump said, “I don’t know if he is running. I think if he runs, he could hurt himself very badly. I really believe he could hurt himself badly.”There is no doubt that DeSantis had a great night. He won his own race convincingly, while delivering three new House seats to the Republican party, courtesy of his blatantly partisan gerrymandering. At the same time, DeSantis did less than 2% better than Marco Rubio in the Senate race, putting some doubt on his particular appeal. Moreover, as too few media noted, Florida Republicans undoubtedly profited from DeSantis’s years-long campaign of voter intimidation, which entailed unleashing a newly created “vote-fraud squad” on mostly innocent voters; against the broader national trend, Democratic turnout seemed significantly down in Florida.It is important to note that the shift from Trump to DeSantis does not indicate a return to “normal”, in the sense of old-school conservatism. DeSantis and Trump are both clearly far right and there is little ideological space between the two. Rather, it is about strategy and style. As far as Republican voters had any problems with Trump during his presidency, it was always more about his delivery than about his policies. It is not just his style but also his strategy – Trump largely operates outside of the traditional party establishment and political system.Trump is not a politician and has no desire to become one. In sharp contrast, DeSantis is and has already significant political experience with running one of the biggest states in the country in terms of both economic power and population. Whereas Trump mainly shouts from the sidelines, respecting neither the institutions of liberal democracy nor the political practices of Washington, DeSantis practices what Princeton professor Kim Lane Scheppele calls “democratic erosion by law”: the weakening of liberal democracy from within both the legal and the political system.In this way, the turn from DeSantis to Trump mirrors developments in Europe, where crude far-right politicians like Matteo Salvini are being “upgraded” to more subtle peers like Giorgia Meloni. It is, if you will, the Orbánization of the far right. The Hungarian leader is the prime example of democratic erosion by law, having effectively destroyed democracy in Hungary by perfectly legal means. It is no coincidence that Orbán is a hero of the so-called “national conservative” wing of the Republican party – mostly politicians with law degrees, such as DeSantis and Josh Hawley.What Trump lacks in legal and political expertise, however, he compensates in charisma, something DeSantis sorely lacks. The Florida governor has gained nationwide Republican support by what he does, not by who he is. DeSantis is a rather uninspiring speaker who neither draws large crowds nor captivates smaller ones. It is his actual fights with “woke capitalism”, in the form of Disney, or “woke academia”, in the form of the University of Florida, that supporters point to. As he bragged in his victory speech on Tuesday night, “Florida is where woke goes to die.”Moreover, DeSantis lacks that unique quality of Trump, authenticity, something the former president identified in bestowing the new moniker “Ron DeSanctimonious”. And while Trump, rather uncharacteristically, seems to have dropped the nickname for now – after a barrage of criticism from rightwing media – you better believe he will return to it, or to even worse names, should he face DeSantis in a Republican primary.Poll after poll might show the divisive nature of Trump, as well as his dropping favorability among both independents and Republicans, but he was still twice as popular among Republicans before the midterms. Although this can change rapidly, particularly if Fox News would support DeSantis over Trump, Trump will continue to command a modest but highly mobilized hardcore – who could make or break Republican candidates in many races, including the presidential one.While DeSantis’s star might be rising, the Republican party remains at the mercy of Trump. The former president unleashed a revolution within the Republican party that has opened the door to people like DeSantis. Now the Florida governor and his supporters have less than two years to figure out how to continue that revolution without its original leader.
      Cas Mudde is a Guardian US columnist and the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor in the school of public and international affairs at the University of Georgia
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      Ron DeSantis landslide victory brings Trump and 2024 into focus

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      Ron DeSantis landslide victory brings Trump and 2024 into focusCrowd in Tampa chant encouragement to run for president as Florida governor revels in big win and even channels Churchill At Ron DeSantis’s election victory party in Tampa on Tuesday night, supporters of the rightwing Florida governor chanted: “Two more years!”Donald Trump warns party rival Ron DeSantis not to run for president in 2024Read moreGovernors serve four-year terms, but DeSantis is widely seen as a possible challenger to Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. DeSantis’s strong performance in Florida on Tuesday – as other Republicans across the US faltered – has greatly strengthened that position.In a landslide victory, with more than 95% of votes in, DeSantis won 59.4% of the vote with 4,607,597. Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate, Charlie Crist, won just 40% of the vote with 3,100,603.Trump has been reported to be planning a 2024 announcement this month, seeking to capitalise on Republican success in the midterm elections. At a rally in Ohio on Monday, he trailed an announcement on 15 November.But on the night when the Republicans’ hoped-for “red wave” seemed unlikely – though control of the House and the Senate remained in the balance – the atmosphere at Trump’s Florida home, Mar-a-Lago, was reported to be anxious.In Tampa, meanwhile, celebrations of DeSantis’s convincing win over his Democratic challenger Crist were raucous.In a speech laden with allusions to his handling of the Covid pandemic – a source of great controversy and under which 82,541 Floridians have died, the third-highest total of any US state – DeSantis said: “We chose facts over fear, we chose education over indoctrination, we chose law in order over rioting and disorder.“Florida was a refuge of sanity when the world went mad. We stood as the citadel of freedom for people across this country and indeed, across the world. We faced attacks, we took the hits, we weathered the storms but we stood our ground.“We did not back down. We had the conviction to guide us and we had the courage to lead. We made promises. We made promises to the people of Florida and we have delivered on those promises. And so today, after four years, the people have delivered their verdict.”01:41DeSantis has refused to say if he intends to serve a full second term, awkwardly so in his debate with Crist. In Tampa, when supporters chanted “two more years”, the governor smiled broadly and said: “Thank you very much.”He did not address Trump at all, let alone the former president’s threat, reported earlier in the day, to reveal “things about him that won’t be very flattering” if DeSantis does mount a White House run.Polling of the notional Republican field for 2024 gives Trump big leads but DeSantis is the only other name to regularly attract double-figure support. The Florida governor regularly wins polls when Trump is left out.News outlets have reported that DeSantis has indicated to donors he may seek to avoid confronting Trump, waiting for 2028 instead.But the measure of DeSantis’s success on Tuesday, coupled with an easy win for the Republican senator Marco Rubio over his Democratic opponent, the congresswoman and former Orlando police chief Val Demings, may have changed the equation.In Tampa, DeSantis nodded to startling successes in previously solidly Democratic areas, most prominently Miami-Dade county, when he said: “Thanks to the overwhelming support of the people of Florida we not only won the election, we have rewritten the political map. Thank you for honoring us with a win for the ages.”He also nodded to policies that have proved controversial but profitable, particularly regarding Covid and cracking down on the teaching of LGBTQ+ issues and the history of race in America.“We have embraced freedom,” he said. “We have maintained law and order. We have protected the rights of parents. We have respected our taxpayers and we reject ‘woke’ ideology.”The speech had the ring of a politician with one eye on the national and therefore global stage. Given conservative Americans’ long-established veneration of Winston Churchill, it was perhaps not surprising that in a speech delivered with notable confidence, DeSantis echoed the wartime British prime minister.In a speech largely devoted to crowing over the American left, DeSantis echoed Churchill’s famous promise from 1940, when he said Britain would fight “on the beaches … on the landing grounds … in the fields and in the streets”.“We fight the woke in the legislature,” DeSantis said, to steadily mounting cheers. “We fight the woke in the schools, we fight the woke in the corporations. We will never ever surrender to the woke mob. Florida is where woke goes to die.”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022FloridaRepublicansRon DeSantisUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      'Florida is where woke goes to die': Republican Ron DeSantis re-elected as governor – video

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      Ultra-conservative Republican Ron DeSantis defeated Democrat Charlie Crist in the midterm elections, granting him a second term as Florida’s governor. DeSantis’s win could serve as a launchpad for a White House bid in 2024, after being hailed as a rising star in the Republican party. The US midterms have been seen largely as a referendum for Biden’s presidency with Democrats beating expectations since voting closed

      Midterm elections 2022: Democrats beating expectations as John Fetterman wins crucial US Senate race – live More

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      Expect the Trump-DeSantis animosity to evolve into open warfare after midterms

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      AnalysisExpect the Trump-DeSantis animosity to evolve into open warfare after midtermsRichard LuscombePolls show DeSantis positioned to win re-election on Tuesday but political opponents say his focus is locked on a White House run The simmering animosity between Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor emerging as Trump’s most likely challenger for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, looks set to evolve into open warfare following the midterm elections.‘A new political hellscape’: sweeping gains for Republicans could stifle Biden’s presidencyRead morePolls show DeSantis comfortably positioned to win re-election on Tuesday but political opponents say his focus is locked on the national stage and a White House run.The two Republicans’ feuding became evident during a rally for Senate candidate Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania on Saturday, when Trump, who is expected to announce his presidential campaign imminently, introduced his new nickname for the rising conservative star: Ron DeSanctimonious.It is a tactic that has cowed previous pretenders to Trump’s crown as the Republican leader and kingmaker. In the 2016 election cycle, senior Republican hopefuls “Little Marco” Rubio, “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz and “Low Energy” Jeb Bush were derided then swept aside.“There it is, Trump at 71. Ron DeSanctimonious at 10%,” Trump said in Pennsylvania as he perused a screen showing what he claimed were approval ratings for the Republican 2024 nomination.“Mike Pence at seven. Oh, Mike’s doing better than I thought,” Trump added, mocking his former vice-president who he has castigated for refusing to endorse the lie that his 2020 defeat by Joe Biden was the result of electoral fraud.With no discernible irony, Trump called Rubio “my great friend” at a rally for the senator and other Republican candidates in Miami on Sunday, an event at which DeSantis was conspicuously absent.Until now, DeSantis and Trump have mostly kept each other at arm’s length. But clues to their fractured relationship were evident as early as August 2020, when the notoriously prickly DeSantis denounced as “a phony narrative” an assertion he was the then-president’s “yes man” in Florida.The governor subsequently criticized Trump’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, saying earlier this year he regretted “not speaking out” sooner against Trump’s call for a nationwide lockdown. In response, Trump called DeSantis “gutless” for refusing to reveal if he had been given a Covid booster vaccine.In June, Trump began readying his anti-DeSantis rhetoric, telling the New Yorker he would beat his rival in a nomination contest and claiming it was only his endorsement that revived the three-term congressman’s faltering campaign for governor in 2017.Now, with the distraction of the midterms almost out of the way, and with Trump seeking a clear run for his third presidential run as a Republican, DeSantis too has been granted a derogatory nickname.DeSantis’s apparent focus on 2024 – notwithstanding reports he has told donors he may wait until 2028, when Trump will be out of the way – became an issue during the governor’s debate in Florida last month. Charlie Crist, the Democratic nominee, repeatedly challenged DeSantis to say if he would commit to a full four-year term if re-elected.Seizing on DeSantis’s refusal to answer, Crist said: “It’s not a tough question. It’s a fair question. He won’t tell you.”DeSantis described Crist, a Republican Florida governor turned Democratic congressman, “a worn out old donkey” he was looking to “put out to pasture”.At the Miami rally on Sunday, Trump declined to criticize DeSantis again but offered only tepid support for him in Tuesday’s elections, compared to his comments about Rubio and other Republicans in congressional and state races.“You’re going to re-elect the wonderful, the great friend of mine, Marco Rubio to the United States Senate. And you are going to re-elect Ron DeSantis as your governor,” Trump said.Despite Trump’s attacks, DeSantis remains in a strong position, winning straw polls of grassroots supporters and becoming ever more visible on the national stage.According to Politico, he also has the backing for any presidential run of the Republican mega-donor Ken Griffin, who donated more than $60m to the party’s candidates during the midterms.“I don’t know what he’s going to do. It’s a huge personal decision,” Griffin said. “He has a tremendous record as governor of Florida, and our country would be well-served by him as president.”TopicsRon DeSantisDonald TrumpRepublicansUS politicsFloridaanalysisReuse this content More

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      Democrats on the defensive as economy becomes primary concern over abortion

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      Democrats on the defensive as economy becomes primary concern over abortionPolls indicate tide shifting toward Republicans with high inflation rates and gas prices working in their favor With less than two weeks to go until election day, Democrats’ hopes of defying political history and keeping their narrow majorities in the House and Senate appear to be fading, as many of the party’s candidates go on the defensive in the final days of campaigning.Over the summer, many election forecasters wondered if Democrats could avoid the widespread losses typically seen by the president’s party in the midterms. With voters expressing outrage over the supreme court’s decision to end federal protections for abortion access and gas prices falling, Democrats had been hopeful that their endangered incumbents could win reelection.DeSantis’s old law firm received millions in Florida state funds, investigation findsRead moreIn August, Democrats took the lead on the generic congressional ballot, according to FiveThirtyEight. They held onto that lead for two and a half months – until last week.The national political environment now seems to have moved in Republicans’ favor, and Democrats are running out time to turn the tide. Gas prices started to rise again this month, although they have since started to moderate. With inflation at near record levels, the share of voters who name the economy as their top priority has increased since the summer.A New York Times/Siena College poll taken this month found that 44% of likely voters say economic concerns are the most important problem facing the country, compared to 36% who said the same in July. Just 5% of likely voters identified abortion as the most important issue right now. Voters’ renewed focus on inflation and gas prices could hurt Democrats’ chances in some key congressional races, given that Republicans consistently score better on surveys asking which party is better equipped to manage the economy.The shifting winds have prompted some Democrats to question whether they made a tactical error by focusing heavily on abortion rights in their campaign messaging. Just last week, Joe Biden promised to send a bill codifying Roe v Wade to Congress if Democrats fortify their majorities in the midterms.“I want to remind us all how we felt that day when 50 years of constitutional precedent was overturned,” Biden said last Tuesday. “If you care about the right to choose, then you got to vote.”With surveys indicating abortion rights are not top of mind for most voters, some progressive lawmakers are urging their colleagues to instead emphasize economic proposals like raising the minimum wage and creating a federal paid family leave program as they campaign for reelection.“In my view, while the abortion issue must remain on the front burner, it would be political malpractice for Democrats to ignore the state of the economy and allow Republican lies and distortions to go unanswered,” progressive senator Bernie Sanders wrote in a Guardian op-ed earlier this month.Sanders added: “Now is the time for Democrats to take the fight to the reactionary Republican party and expose their anti-worker views on the most important issues facing ordinary Americans. That is both the right thing to do from a policy perspective and good politics.”Democrats worry that the strategy pivot may be coming too late for some candidates, as alarm bells go off in battleground states across the country.In Florida, a state that Donald Trump won by just three points in 2020, Republican governor Ron DeSantis appears likely to defeat his Democratic challenger, Charlie Crist, by double digits. DeSantis, a Trump-like figure who is widely expected to run for president in 2024, has already raised at least $177m this election cycle, setting a record for a gubernatorial campaign. DeSantis’ fundraising haul and Democrats’ bleak polling numbers have led many of the party’s national organizations and donors to abandon Florida candidates, effectively declaring a preemptive defeat.In the battle for the House, Republicans are poised to recapture the majority, as districts that Biden easily won less than two years ago now appear to be up for grabs. According to Politico, a recent internal poll conducted by the campaign of Julia Brownley, whose California district went for Biden by 20 points in 2020, showed the Democratic incumbent leading her Republican opponent by just 1 point.Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee who is overseeing the party’s efforts to maintain control of the House, now faces the risk of being ousted himself. Earlier this week, the Cook Political Report changed the rating of Maloney’s race from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up”. If Maloney cannot hold his seat, the defeat would mark the first time since 1992 that a sitting House campaign committee chair lost reelection. Republicans are gleeful at the prospect of toppling the DCCC chair, dumping several million dollars into Maloney’s district.Maloney has remained optimistic about his chances, telling CBS News, “I’m going to win this election, and when I do, they’re going to wish they had that $9 million back.”But if the national environment is as dire as it appears for Democrats, a Republican wave could soon sweep Maloney and many of his colleagues out of office.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022DemocratsRepublicansHouse of RepresentativesUS CongressJoe BidenAbortionnewsReuse this content More