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Last weekend, Donald Trump predicted he would be arrested. This has yet to happen. So why did he bring attention to a hush money case that could put him in handcuffs soon?
Jonathan Freedland and Hugo Lowell discuss why Donald Trump might still face criminal charges next week, and why it might actually benefit his campaign
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Over the weekend Donald Trump set off an international maelstrom of media attention when he announced he would be “arrested on Tuesday”.Like so many of Trump’s certain proclamations, it proved to be throughly wrong, and the grand jury weighing whether to charge Trump over payments to an adult film star is now unlikely to deliver its verdict until next week.Trump’s declaration, however, did succeed in creating a week-long spectacle outside the Manhattan criminal court, which is now protected by metal barriers and police amid a widespread tightening of security in New York.On Monday a small group of Trump supporters – estimates place the number at between five and 20 – and much, much larger groups of journalists flooded to the court, in the south of the island of Manhattan.Those on the right hailed the smattering of people holding pro-Trump signs as a bold show of support for the twice-impeached, legally besieged former US president.But by that measure, support had evaporated on Thursday. There was not a single Trump supporter or protester – a small group of anti-Trumpers had also been present earlier in the week – outside the court. Only the journalists, from all the big TV stations and a lot of the smaller ones, remained, sitting looking glum in sheeting New York rain.Outside the court, which has found itself the subject of so much global attention this week, loomed behind waist-high metal barricades.The absence of Trump supporters was made to feel even more pronounced by the entirely empty protest pen that police had set up on Monday. The small circular area, which brought to mind a sort of animal petting area common to county fairs, was forlorn and redundant under the gray sky, a real-life rebuttal to the adage “if you build it they will come”.The courthouse itself is a sprawling 15 floor concrete building, spanning an entire city block looking like a nod to Soviet-era architecture. Thoroughly outshone by the ornate New York county supreme court and the gold leaf-roofed Thurgood Marshall United States courthouse, planted next to each other a hundred yards south, dozens of cameras nonetheless remained trained on it on Thursday.Trump has said he’d like to be handcuffed when, or if, he is arraigned and arrested at the court. The former television host, who inherited his father’s housing business, is being investigated for his role in paying $130,000 to adult film star Stormy Daniels, who says the pair had sex. Trump says they did not.The one-term president’s determination to turn his arraignment into a “spectacle”, however, is likely to be ruined by the scaffolding and green plywood that is in place across the entire span of the building, obscuring the main entrance. If he ever is indicted and taken to court, the camera crews outside – there are at least two dozen – will be lucky if they get an image of Trump at all.There was a small assortment of NYPD equipment in front of the court, including a towable floodlight on each corner and, on the street behind the building, two big vans, but neither represented a striking visual.With no interested parties present when the Guardian visited, there was certainly little worth filming. Five police officers were standing around not doing much at a gap in the barricades, while on a corner two more officers were discussing whether to have pizza or a sandwich for lunch.They settled on pizza.On Thursday it emerged that the grand jury hearing the case would only return to Trump’s case on Monday, pushing back any potential arrest. Until then the barricades, the bored police officers, and the bored journalists will remain in place.A week that began with a bang, and with some of Trump’s supporters getting a day out in New York, appears to have thoroughly fizzled out. More
The Manhattan grand jury expected to consider criminal charges against Donald Trump over his role in the payment of hush money to the adult film star Stormy Daniels will not meet on Wednesday, according to a source familiar with the matter, and is on standby about meeting on Thursday.The reason for the schedule change was not immediately clear.The grand jury, which meets in the afternoons on Mondays, Wednesdays and Thursdays, is not required to meet three times every week. It may hear from an additional witness before being asked to vote on whether to return an indictment in connection with the hush money payment, the source said.The adjournment sparked a flurry of speculation among people close to Trump, advisers asking if it signalled weaknesses in the case being prosecuted by the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg, or whether there was more damning evidence to come.A spokesperson for the district attorney’s office did not respond to a request for comment.On Monday, prosecutors allowed a Trump-aligned lawyer, Robert Costello, to testify before the grand jury. He assailed the credibility and account of the prosecution’s star witness, the former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen.The case centers on the $130,000 Trump paid Daniels through Cohen in the final days of the 2016 election. Trump reimbursed Cohen with $35,000 checks using his personal funds, which were recorded as legal expenses. In 2018, Cohen pleaded guilty to federal charges, some connected to the payments.What charges the district attorney might now seek against Trump remain unclear, though some members of his legal team believe the most likely scenario involves a base charge of falsifying business records, coupled with tax fraud, because Trump would not have paid tax on the payments.In recent days, Trump has been resigned to the fact that he will face criminal charges in the hush-money case, and has repeatedly insisted to advisers that he wants to be handcuffed when he makes an appearance in court, the Guardian previously reported.The former president has reasoned that since he would need to go to Manhattan criminal court in downtown New York and surrender to authorities for fingerprinting and a mugshot, the sources said, he might as well seek to turn it into a spectacle.Trump’s increasing insistence that he wants to be handcuffed behind his back for a perp walk appears to come from various motivations, including his desire to show defiance for what he sees as an unfair prosecution, and to have the whole affair galvanize his base for his 2024 presidential campaign.But above all, sources close to Trump said, he is deeply anxious that any special arrangements, like making his first court appearance by video link or skulking into the courthouse via an obscure entrance, would make him look weak or like a loser.Trump’s legal team has recoiled at the idea of him appearing in person, and recommended that Trump allow them to quietly turn him in next week and schedule a remote appearance, even citing guidance from his Secret Service detail about security concerns.But Trump has rejected that approach. Over the weekend, he told various allies he did not care if someone shot him, as he would become “a martyr” if so.He also said that if he was shot, he would probably win the presidency in 2024, the sources said. More
Of all the accusations and lawsuits that have swirled around Donald Trump, it’s not the one many of us thought would bring the man down. Trump has faced far worse allegations, primarily the ongoing defamation and battery suit brought against him by the journalist E Jean Carroll, and the accusation, via the January 6 committee, that he disrupted the peaceful transition of power. But it is the return of Stormy Daniels, the porn star elevated to Greek goddess of vengeance, that may deliver to the world an image many have longed to see: Trump in cuffs.To that end, all police in New York were ordered to be in uniform this week and on standby for immediate deployment. At the weekend, Trump urged his supporters to “protest, protest, protest” ahead of what he advertised as his likely arrest on Tuesday, after a grand jury in the Manhattan criminal court inched closer to a possible indictment. As it turns out, no arrest has yet been made. But the accusations against Trump, which relate to his alleged payment of hush money to Daniels in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election, appeared to be on the verge of triggering an arrest order from the Manhattan district attorney’s office. If it happens, it will be the first time criminal charges have been brought against a former president.The charges themselves are two-step and complicated, turning on a matter of alleged falsification of business records in the interests of furthering Trump’s election prospects. If Trump paid hush money to Daniels via his fixer, Michael Cohen, then lied about it, the DA’s office will try to contend that this constitutes not only a misdemeanour crime of cover-up, but a more serious felony entailing “intent to defraud”. The $130,000 paid to Daniels may then be framed as an improper campaign donation.It’s all very Al Capone and the bean-counters, which is to say not exactly a snappy charge for the headlines. Nor does it carry a particularly stiff penalty. The maximum prison sentence for a minor felony such as this is four years and it’s extremely hard to imagine Trump getting jail time. If the intention is to publicly embarrass Trump, that seems destined to backfire, too, given the man’s super-human levels of shamelessness. The maximal end point here would, presumably, be to tie Trump up sufficiently to edge him out of the next presidential election. Not a splashy outcome, but a potentially far-reaching one.The cost and the risk involved is considerable. In terms of the former, the mere fact of seeing his face on the news this week is a return to a place many of us don’t want to go. Accountability of any kind, no matter how small, would of course be satisfying in a way, but on the other hand, what mightn’t we give for the bliss of never hearing about this man ever again? Watching the news, I found myself wondering if I would, in fact, sacrifice revenge and justice, poetic or otherwise, for an entirely Trump-free existence.Anyway, that’s not on the cards. The bigger issue with any potential arrest of Trump is what it may do to his election chances. History has taught us that Trump can turn any publicity, no matter how negative, into a persecution narrative that only fans the conspiratorial mindset of his most ardent supporters. At the weekend, as he went the full Joan of Arc and urged his defenders to go out on the streets to protest for him, it was hard to escape the conclusion that he was thoroughly enjoying himself, and that he would far rather be arrested than ignored.It’s best with Trump to get the disappointment out of the way, to dash your own hopes before anyone else does. As the story unfolds, I’m getting in early and trying to come to terms with how it may all play out: the arrest happens, Trump is arraigned and tried, there’s no conviction, and he leverages the attention to stir up his base so that we don’t see the back of him for years. Now universe, prove me wrong!
Emma Brockes is a Guardian columnist More
Donald Trump is attempting to capitalize on his anticipated arrest over hush money payments to an adult film star by bombarding supporters with fundraising emails to support his presidential election campaign.In a series of messages in recent days Trump and his acolytes have urged people to donate to the Trump Save America Joint Fundraising Committee, established to support Trump’s bid for president in 2024.The emails paint Trump as the victim of a political agenda of a varying cast of “globalist power brokers”, the “deep state” and “witch hunt-crazed radicals”. Each ends with a plea for donations, the language used changing slightly each time.“If this political persecution goes unchallenged, one day it won’t be me they’re targeting … It’ll be you,” said an email from Trump on Sunday.The fundraising attempt comes as a grand jury prepares to deliver a verdict on whether to indict Trump over his alleged role in a hush money payment to Stormy Daniels, who claims the pair slept together. Trump has denied they had sex.Over the weekend Trump claimed he would be arrested on Tuesday, but his representatives later said he was citing media reports and leaks, and had no information about a potential arraignment.The barrage of emails are often written in an urgent and pleading tone.“Please make a contribution to SAVE OUR COUNTRY now that the stakes have NEVER been higher.”It was accompanied by links to donate up to $250 to the Trump committee.They can also strike a tone of conspiracy theory.“These are truly dark times …” began an email sent by Trump on Monday. “The Deep State and George Soros’ globalist cabal of thugs think that by coming for me they can intimidate YOU out of voting for a president who will always put the PEOPLE first.“Please make a contribution of just $1 today to cement your place as a FOUNDING DEFENDER of our movement in what truly is the darkest chapter in our nation’s history.”Trump’s pleas for money could make sense given his relatively poor fundraising so far. Between 15 November 2022, when Trump announced his run for president, and 31 December 2022 Trump’s campaign said he had raised $9.5m, or $201,600 a day. The New York Times reported that the total paled in comparison to the amounts raised by previous presidential frontrunners like Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton.In his 2016 campaign Bush, who entered the race as the favorite, raised an average of $762,000 a day after announcing his candidacy, the New York Times reported. Clinton averaged $594,400 a day following her 2016 announcement.On Tuesday, as barriers were placed around the Manhattan criminal courthouse in New York City, an email from Trump’s re-election campaign shared a photo of the scene in another fundraising email, asking supporters to: “Please make a contribution to stand with President Trump at this critical moment.”The email again contained links to donate to the Trump Save America Joint Fundraising Committee, Trump’s principal campaign arm. The committee had just $3.8m cash on hand at the end of 2022, according to its filings with the Federal Election Commission, despite having raised more than $151m over the previous two years.The committee spent $141m over that period, including a $1,696 payment to Trump Hotel Collection. It also spent thousands of dollars advertising on Facebook and Newsmax, the rightwing news channel which champions Trump on a near-daily basis, while book purchases accounted for a surprising amount of expenditure.In September 2022 the committee spent $157,977.50, across two purchases, on books from the Books a Million retailer alone. The Books a Million website lists several books authored by Trump as out of stock.The committee also bought $47,689.40 worth of books from Winning Team Publishing in May 2022. Donald Trump Jr, Trump’s son, is the co-founder of Winning Team Publishing, which, like Books a Million, is offering Trump’s upcoming book, Letters To Trump, for sale on its website. More
Donald Trump has told advisers that he wants to be handcuffed when he makes an appearance in court, if he is indicted by a Manhattan grand jury for his role in paying hush money to adult film star Stormy Daniels, multiple sources close to the former president have said.The former president has reasoned that since he would need to go to the courthouse and surrender himself to authorities for fingerprinting and a mug shot anyway, the sources said, he might as well turn everything into a “spectacle”.Trump’s increasing insistence that he wants to be handcuffed behind his back for a perp walk appears to come from various motivations, including that he wants to project defiance in the face of what he sees as an unfair prosecution and that it would galvanize his base for his 2024 presidential campaign.But above all, people close to Trump said, he was deeply anxious that any special arrangements – like making his first court appearance by video link or skulking into the courthouse – would make him look weak or like a loser.The recent discussions that Trump has had about his surrender with close advisers at Mar-a-Lago and elsewhere opens a window on to the former president’s unique fears and anxieties as the grand jury, which next convenes on Wednesday, appears on course to return an indictment.Trump’s legal team in the hush money case has recoiled at the idea of him going in person and recommended that Trump allow them to quietly turn himself in next week and schedule a remote appearance, even citing guidance from his Secret Service detail about potential security concerns.But Trump has rejected that approach and told various allies over the weekend that he didn’t care if someone shot him – he would become “a martyr”. He later added that if he got shot, he would probably win the presidency in 2024, the sources said.It remains uncertain when the Manhattan grand jury might return an indictment in the hush money case and make him the first US president, sitting or former, to face criminal charges.People close to Trump could not be sure how serious he is about being handcuffed for a perp walk, but he may be thwarted in his supposed ambitions if the district attorney, Alvin Bragg, decides against handcuffing him and refuses to allow him to be marched past the cameras.Trump’s advisers have also been unsure whether he actually grasps the enormity of what an indictment might mean for him legally, in part because he has appeared disconnected at times from the recent flurry of activity in New York as the investigation has wrapped up.In recent days, Trump has generally weighed his predicament only in between lunches and dinners at Mar-a-Lago and playing his usual rounds of golf at his resort in Palm Beach, the sources said.When he eventually gets settled on strategizing his response to the hush money case, the sources said, he has been more focused on how he can project an image of defiance against the prosecution and that he is unfazed by being slapped with criminal charges that could turn out to rise to a felony.The case centers on $130,000 that Trump paid to Daniels through his then-lawyer Michael Cohen in the final days of the 2016 campaign. Trump later reimbursed Cohen with $35,000 checks using his personal funds, which were recorded as legal expenses to Cohen.It remains unclear what charges the district attorney might seek against Trump, though some members of his legal team believe the most likely scenario involves a base charge of falsifying business records coupled with potential tax fraud because Trump would not have paid tax on the payments.Trump has also been fixated on how an indictment might be a boon for his 2024 presidential campaign, betting that it would enrage his Maga base and force the rest of the Republican party to fall in line to defend him, in what he has already characterised as a politically motivated prosecution.In the past, publicity over political and criminal investigations have benefited Trump’s fundraising, and forced Republican rivals to stumble between criticizing prosecutors and defending otherwise politically indefensible allegations.Whether an indictment benefits Trump for the 2024 campaign remains to be seen given his grievance-driven campaigns have faltered in recent election cycles, with independent voters, in particular, seemingly exhausted by his constant refrains surrounding “witch-hunt” investigations. More
Donald Trump has cheered the news that a former adviser to Michael Cohen will testify before a Manhattan grand jury investigating the ex-president’s alleged role in a hush money payment to the adult film star Stormy Daniels.Robert J Costello, a one-time legal adviser to former Trump attorney Cohen, was scheduled to appear before the grand jury on Monday and expected to give testimony “attacking the credibility of Cohen’s statements”, the Associated Press reported.Cohen pleaded guilty in 2018 to federal charges involving $130,000 paid to Daniels close to election day in 2016. Daniels claims she had sex with the former president in 2006, an allegation Trump denies.Trump said on Saturday he would be “arrested on Tuesday” – a claim for which sources close to the 76-year-old said he had no evidence – but then offered a more buoyant outlook after news of Costello’s scheduled appearance.“Just reported that the most important witness to go before the New York City grand jury, a highly respected lawyer who once represented convicted felon, jailbird and serial fake storyteller and liar, Michael Cohen, will be doing so tomorrow afternoon,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.“The information he will present will supposedly be conclusive and irrefutable! Witch hunt!!!”Costello, who has represented the Trump confidants Steve Bannon and Rudy Giuliani, offered to represent Cohen in 2018 as he faced charges related to the Daniels payment. The pair discussed the case, the New York Times reported, but the relationship soured after Cohen began to criticize and implicate Trump.The AP reported that Costello recently contacted a Trump lawyer, claiming he had information that contradicted Cohen’s account and could prove exculpatory for Trump.The lawyer brought it to the attention of the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg, who last week subpoenaed Costello’s law firm for records and invited him to testify.There was more good news for Trump on Monday when Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, his closest rival for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, addressed the likely indictment for the first time.Trump allies had called for DeSantis to speak out. Speaking to reporters at a college in Panama City, the governor mocked the notion that hush money payments to a porn star might be seen as indictable conduct. He also repeated an antisemitic dogwhistle.DeSantis said Bragg “like other Soros-funded prosecutors, they weaponise their office to impose a political agenda on society at the expense of the rule of law and public safety”.George Soros, a Hungarian American progressive financier and philanthropist, is a boogeyman for Republicans and a regular target for antisemitic invective.DeSantis mentioned “Soros-funded prosecutors” five times in a two-minute answer.Throughout Sunday, Trump published a flurry of all-caps posts, railing against perceived injustice.Using a term short for “Republicans in name only”, one post complained of persecution by “COMMUNISTS, MARXISTS, RINOS AND LOSERS”. Several posts attacked Cohen.While Trump has focused on Bragg, Cohen and others, his lawyers have focused on a defense strategy.Outside counsel – Joe Tacopina and Susan Necheles – have reasoned that a hush money case centered on campaign finance violations could be weak after a similar prosecution against the Democratic senator and vice-presidential nominee John Edwards failed in 2012.If the indictment alleges the Daniels payment violated campaign finance laws, Trump’s lawyers are expected to argue that it fails the “irrespective test” posed by the Edwards case: that Trump would have paid Daniels irrespective of his campaign, to avoid embarrassment because he was a public figure.Trump may face an uphill struggle with those arguments, given that having “mixed motives” to protect himself personally and to protect his campaign could leave him liable. The timing of the payments also suggests an urgency to pay before election day.There is also the matter of Trump’s own comments on the Edwards case. In 2012, he told Fox News “a lot of very good lawyers have told me that the government doesn’t have a good case” against Edwards.As former New York prosecutor Ronn Blitzer wrote for Law and Crime, “that … sentence undermines Trump’s claim that he was relying on Cohen as his attorney to know the law to steer him in the right direction” over the Daniels payment, “and that he didn’t direct Cohen to break the law”.“[Trump] said during the Edwards case that he spoke to ‘a lot of very good lawyers’ about these very issues, which would mean he was aware of the relevant laws,” Blitzer said.Trump’s legal team is also expected to argue that when Daniels tried to sell her story in 2011 she was told to “leave Trump alone – forget the story”, thereby proving her silence was desired long before Trump ran for president.Trump’s lawyers made those arguments when Necheles urged Bragg to drop the case, the Guardian previously reported. But all signs indicate Bragg will move ahead in an unprecedented indictment of a former president – who is also running to return to the Oval Office. More
