Texas floods 2025

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    A deadly 1987 flood foreshadowed the Texas disaster. Survivors ask, ‘why didn’t we learn?’

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    The rain was pouring down in Texas in the early morning hours of 17 July 1987. James Moore, a reporter for a local NBC news station, was stationed in Austin when his editors called and told him to grab his camera operator and head to Kerrville, a Hill Country town about 100 miles (160km) away. They had heard reports of flash flooding on the Guadalupe River.“We just jumped in the car when it was still dark … we knew there were going to be problems based on how much rain there was,” Moore said. En route, he got another call over the radio that told him to head instead for the small hamlet of Comfort, just 15 miles from Kerrville.“They said: ‘Hey, head up towards Comfort,’” Moore recalled. “‘Something’s happened.’”At about 7.45am, a caravan of buses had left a children’s church camp at the Pot O’ Gold Ranch as they tried to evacuate the Guadalupe’s surging waters, which eventually rose nearly 30ft (9 meters) during the ferocious, slow-moving rainstorm. According to a report by the National Weather Service, a bus and a van had stalled on an overflowing river crossing. As kids rushed to escape the vehicles, they were hit by a massive wave of water – estimated to be a half-mile wide – that swept away 43 people. Thirty-three of them were rescued, but 10 children drowned.Moore arrived at a scene of chaos. Helicopters clattered overhead as people scrambled in a frantic search for the injured and missing. Then he and his camera operator caught sight of something horrifying.“We unfortunately found one of the bodies of the kids,” Moore said. “All we saw was the legs under a brush pile and we alerted the authorities.”View image in fullscreenNearly 40 years later, it felt like history repeating itself. Last week, in the early morning hours of 4 July, another flash flood hit the Guadalupe. This time, though, the wall of water was sizably bigger, and came in the middle of the night and during one of the area’s busiest holiday weekends. The death toll is now nearly 130 people with more than 160 still missing. The loss of life includes 27 campers and counselors from Camp Mystic, a girls’ camp several miles upriver from Comfort.Many who lived through the tragedy in Comfort see the 1987 flood as a harbinger for what washed through Hill Country on the Fourth of July.“[The 1987 flood] was called the ‘big one’ back then. This is 100 times over what we experienced,” said Emily Davis. She was a 10-year-old at Camp Capers, another church camp up the road from the Pot O’ Gold Ranch, when the 1987 flood hit. “Why didn’t they learn from this? Why wasn’t there a better system?”‘The risk is always there’After the Independence Day floods devastated Kerr county last week, Donald Trump described the scene as “a 100-year catastrophe”.“This was the thing that happened in seconds,” he added. “Nobody expected it.”But Hill Country is no stranger to these disasters, and has even earned itself the moniker “flash flood alley”. Its chalky limestone cliffs, winding waterways and dry rocky landscape have made it ground zero for some of the deadliest flash floods nationwide. Hill Country’s proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and its ocean moisture have also made it a prime target for drenching thunderstorms.The US Geological Survey calculates that the Guadalupe has experienced noteworthy flash floods almost every decade since the 1930s. In 1998, it recorded a flood that surpassed even 500-year flood projections. Other rivers in Hill Country, including the Pedernales and Blanco, have also seen deadly flash floods.“What makes Kerr county so beautiful, the reason why people want to go there … is literally the reason why it’s so dangerous,” said Tom Di Liberto, a meteorologist who formerly worked at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) and is now with the non-profit Climate Central. “The risk is always there.”View image in fullscreenDuring the 1987 floods, as in 2025, news reports and video footage captured a harrowing scene: the Guadalupe’s surging muddy waters downing 100ft-tall cypress trees, as dead deer and the siding of houses rushed by. Helicopters circling overhead trying to rescue people clinging to the tops of trees, stranded in the middle of the river.Davis said that even though she was just a kid, she remembers the helicopters and army trucks swarming the area. She even took a photo of one of the helicopters above with her Le Clic camera. Camp Capers was up a hill, she said, so the children there were able to shelter in place. But, she said, the mood was tense.“We were told that 10 didn’t make it,” Davis said. “It just became very haunted and eerie. I wanted nothing to do with that river.”View image in fullscreenThe day was marked by a series of awful events. One 14-year-old girl in the Guadalupe grabbed a rope hanging from a helicopter but was unable to hang on long enough and fell to her death. Another girl caught in the river’s waves kept trying to grab a helicopter rope, but lost strength and was swept away. A teenager, John Bankston Jr, worked to save the younger kids when the camp bus stalled, carrying them on his back to dry land. He was in the river when the wall of water hit. Bankston was the only person whose body was never recovered.Moore, the local reporter, said his TV station sent out a helicopter and they helped search for people. “We were flying up and down the river looking for survivors,” Moore said. “Later in the day, John Bankston Sr got in the helicopter and we flew him up and down the river for hours looking for his son.”“I covered a lot of horrific stuff, from the Branch Davidians and earthquakes and hurricanes and Oklahoma City,” said Moore, who is now an author. “And this one has haunted me, just because of the kids.”That year, the Texas water commission’s flood management unit made a dedication to the children who lost their lives in Comfort.“When something like this occurs, we must all look into ourselves to see if we are doing all we can to prevent such a tragic loss of life,” read the dedication, written by Roy Sedwick, then state coordinator for the unit. Sedwick wrote that he was resolved to promote public awareness and flood warnings in Texas, “so that future generations will be safe from the ravages of flash floods”.‘Are we doing enough to warn people?’The National Weather Service’s storm report from the 1987 flood in Comfort paints more unsettling parallels with last week’s tragedy. Up to 11.5in (29cm) of rain fell near the small hamlet of Hunt that day, causing the river to surge 29ft. A massive flood wave emerged and travelled down the Guadalupe to Comfort.During the recent floods in Kerr county, an estimated 12in of rain fell in a matter of hours during another heavy, slow-moving thunderstorm. This time, Hunt was the hardest hit, with the Guadalupe River again rising dozens of feet and setting a record-high crest of at least 37.5ft at its peak, according to the US Geological Survey. Many people along the river were given little to no warning.View image in fullscreenThe National Weather Service issued 22 alerts through the night and into the next day. But in the rural area, where cell service can be spotty, many residents said they didn’t get the alerts or they came too late, after the flash flood hit. No alerts were sent by Kerr county’s local government officials.Other parts of Hill Country, such as in Comal county and on the Pedernales River, have siren systems. When high flood waters trigger the system, they blare “air raid” sirens giving notice to evacuate and get to high ground.In Comfort, the 1987 tragedy still casts a shadow over the town. But on 4 July, the hamlet avoided much of the disaster that hit neighboring communities. Comfort recently worked to scrape together enough money to expand its own emergency warning system and installed sirens that are set off during floods. Over the last year, the volunteer fire department sounded the alarm every day at noon, so residents could learn to recognize the long flat tone.So, when the raging Guadalupe waters once again rushed toward Comfort over the holiday weekend, sirens echoed throughout the town. This time, the volunteer fire department confirmed, all residents evacuated in time and there was no loss of life.View image in fullscreenKerr county, meanwhile, had been looking at installing a flood siren system for the past decade. But the plan got mired in political infighting and ultimately stalled when the county was presented with a $1m price tag. Earlier this year, state lawmakers introduced a house bill to fund early warning systems across Texas that could have included siren towers along the Guadalupe. And even though the bill overwhelmingly passed in the house, it died in the senate. In the aftermath of the 4 July catastrophe, the state says it will now fund such a system.While it’s impossible to say whether such a warning system would have changed the outcome, given the vast expanse of Kerr county, experts say these types of weather events are going to keep happening and intensifying, so communities need to be prepared.“This is a conversation for the entire country when it comes to areas that are prone to flash floods,” said the meteorologist Di Liberto. “Are we doing enough as a society to warn people?” More

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      Monday briefing: The ‘toxic cocktail’ of climate denial, federal cuts and the Texas floods

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      Good morning. The death toll from the catastrophic floods in Texas has climbed to 129, including at least 27 children and counsellors at Camp Mystic in Kerr County.With more than 160 people still missing, authorities warn that the number of casualties is likely to rise. On Sunday morning, some search operations were cancelled as heavy rain and strong winds battered the state once again.The flash floods, which swept through large parts of central Texas, are being described as one of the worst natural disasters in the state’s history. At Camp Mystic, rain gauges recorded 6.5in (16.5cm) of rainfall in just 180 minutes.In addition to the human cost, the floods have caused widespread destruction. According to a preliminary estimate by private forecaster AccuWeather, the economic toll could range from $18bn to $22bn (£13.2bn to £16.2bn).The floods struck as the climate crisis worsens, and as the Trump administration’s hollowing out of federal agencies has left critical services such as the National Weather Service under severe strain. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is also facing continued threats of defunding.Yet, despite the scale of devastation, there has been little public reckoning over climate breakdown or the erosion of essential public services. Instead, conspiracy theories have abounded.To understand how this catastrophe unfolded and the political response to it, I spoke to Oliver Milman, the Guardian US environment reporter. That’s after the headlines.Five big stories

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      In depth: What we know so farView image in fullscreenThe devastating floods began in the early hours of 4 July, Independence Day in the US. Oliver Milman told me that what started out as a seemingly small storm stalled in an area where two rivers in central Texas meet, and dumped an enormous amount of rain.“It caused the river to burst its banks, swept away homes, cars, flooded rivers and, most tragically, caught up on Camp Mystic,” Oliver said. “There’s still hope that some people could be rescued, but it’s certainly going to be one of the biggest, deadliest natural disasters in recent US history.”Oliver said there are several factors that could explain why this flood was so devastating. We also get into the responses from elected officials and other players.How much of this is down to the climate crisis?As the planet gets hotter, mostly because of humans burning fossil fuels, the atmosphere is able to hold more moisture. One meteorologist told Oliver that the Earth’s atmosphere is now like a giant sponge.“You’ve got more moisture in the atmosphere, and more energy because it’s getting hotter, and therefore you’re getting more of these extreme precipitation events happening in several places around the world, including parts of the eastern US. But the western half of the US seems to be getting more drought,” Oliver said. “So, very crudely speaking, half the country’s not getting enough rain, and the other half is getting too much in these intense downpours.”He pointed to some interesting statistics from the Environment Protection Agency: of the 10 heaviest precipitation single-day events in US history going back to 1910, nine have happened since 1995. “We’re clearly getting more and more of these events. There’s been research done showing they’re becoming more common in Texas and will continue to as the world heats up,” Oliver added.The geography of central Texas also made the floods more catastrophic. “It’s hilly and has these canyons, lots of rivers, and not much topsoil. So when rain hits, it flies off the ground very quickly. It’s known as “Flash Flood Alley” in some places, so that was a factor. The rain hit, and the devastation followed.”What impact have Donald Trump’s cuts had?The other factor, which Oliver likened to a toxic cocktail, is the political situation in the US.“The Trump administration has essentially tried to gut the federal workforce: firing scientists, firing weather forecasters, trying to eliminate large sections of the scientific agencies that deal with climate change. So you had a situation where a lot of National Weather Service offices, which track storms and issue warnings, were critically understaffed,” Oliver explained.Democrats have called for an investigation into whether the sweeping cuts introduced by the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), once led by Elon Musk, played any role in the disaster. The Trump administration has dismissed any suggestion that its policies had an impact.“The Trump administration has pushed back quite hard and said this was an act of God, there were adequate resources, and so on,” Oliver said. Yet, understaffing was an issue and there was a disconnect between the meteorologists issuing warnings and the emergency services, he said.“The National Weather Service issued a warning about dangerous flood conditions at 1.14am [on 4 July], but there wasn’t – and it’s still unclear why – coordination with emergency services to evacuate people, to mobilise resources in enough time. A lot of people are pointing fingers at the cuts Trump has made to the coordination services usually handled by the federal government.”And it’s not just Trump that people are focusing on. The week before the floods, Texas senator Ted Cruz, ensured that the “big, beautiful bill”, a Republican spending bill pushed through and signed by Trump on Independence Day, would include particular cuts.“It does a lot of things: cuts the social safety net, people lose health care, gives tax breaks to the wealthy, removes food assistance, guts support for clean energy,” Oliver said. “But one thing it also did was remove a $150m fund to improve weather forecasting at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Cruz personally inserted the language to cut that and then, tragically, just days later this storm hit his home state and killed many people. So there are a lot of questions being asked about his role and whether those cuts played a significant role.”Republicans have largely fallen into line on the Texas floods, lavishing praise on Trump, while avoiding questions around the effect of Doge.Has this moved the dial on the climate emergency?In Texas, the reaction on the ground has been one of disbelief and devastation, Oliver said. “There’s a lot of ‘thoughts and prayers’ rhetoric in Texas right now, a sense of rallying to help those in need. People are mainly stunned rather than immediately pointing fingers, although local officials are raising questions about how much warning they got from the National Weather Service. There are also concerns about the local government’s actions. There had been a plan to install an early-warning flood system along the river, but the idea was ditched because it was considered too expensive. So you’ve got this local angle, too.”Far-right players have descended on central Texas in a stunt they claim is part of a “disaster relief” effort. In a video posted by one group, they say their so-called “activists” are distributing supplies to survivors, but make clear that they are prioritising “their people” and “European peoples” in those operations.As is now common when disaster strikes, conspiracy theories are being spread, Oliver said, by rightwing influencers and elected representatives such as Marjorie Taylor Greene. “They have questioned the cause [of the flood], whether it’s weather modification, cloud seeding, some nefarious machine. There’s this irony: we are modifying the weather – it’s called climate change. But it’s not the kind of weather modification they’re talking about.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionOliver isn’t surprised by this reaction. “People are now able to live in their own realities, sealed off from facts,” he said. “Whatever people believed before the storm, the storm just reinforced it. That’s become a recurring theme, not just in disasters but in politics more broadly. People are very entrenched here. I know that’s also an issue in the UK and Europe, but in the US things feel paralysed. I don’t know if this will move anyone’s opinion.”What else we’ve been readingView image in fullscreen

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      SportView image in fullscreenTennis | Jannik Sinner beat Carlos Alcaraz 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 in the Wimbledon men’s singles final, a month after losing to the Spaniard at the French Open. Sinner is the first Italian player to win a Wimbledon title.Cricket | India finished on 58 for 4 in the third test, needing another 135 runs to beat England on the final day after a sensational day’s play at Lord’s.Football | England surged into the last eight after Georgia Stanway sparked an emphatic 6-1 win against Wales. France trailed 2-1 at half-time but hit back to beat the Netherlands 5-2 – with two goals from Delphine Cascarino – to top Group D.The front pagesView image in fullscreenThe Guardian splashes on “Warning over Israeli ‘ethnic cleansing’ plan for Gaza,” an interview with former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert. The Times leads on “Bank could cut rates if jobs market slows down,” while the Telegraph goes with “Tax raid looms for middle classes.” The Metro splashes on “Politicians? We don’t trust any of you,” for the Express, it’s “Toothless’ new sex abuse laws won’t protect children,” the Mirror has “King backs Harry peace talks” on their family feud, and the Mail goes with “Labour’s doctors strike hypocrisy.” The FT leads on “Germany urges weapons suppliers to speed up European rearmament,” and for the i Paper, it’s “Measles surge fears for summer holidays after child dies amid low jab uptake.”Today in FocusView image in fullscreenSyria’s treasure hunting feverAfter the fall of Assad, a new business is booming in Syria: metal detectors. The items were banned by the regime but their return to shops means treasure hunters are searching for millenia-old burial sites, leaving the ancient city of Palmyra covered in holes. Reporter William Christou and Syrian archaeologist Amr Al-Azm speak with Michael Safi.Cartoon of the day | Ella BaronView image in fullscreenThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badView image in fullscreenSocial media can be brutal, but Brenda Allen is doing her bit to make it more benign. The 95-year-old, who lives in Cheshire, has proved a huge hit on TikTok. Her videos, in which she talks through her collection of Jellycat soft toys, have garnered more than 2m views, along with a flood of requests in the comments from people asking to adopt her as their gran.Brenda is now planning to auction her collection of Jellycats in aid of a children’s hospice. Her daughter Julie said that the family had been “blown away” by her moment of internet fame.Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

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      Trump wants to ‘remake’ Fema, not eliminate it, Kristi Noem says

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      Kristi Noem, the homeland security secretary, said on Sunday that Donald Trump wants to have the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) “remade” instead of eradicated entirely.In a new interview on Sunday with NBC, Noem defended the Trump administration’s response to the deadly Texas floods that have killed at least 120 people, saying: “I think the president recognizes that Fema should not exist the way that it always has been. It needs to be redeployed in a new way, and that’s what we did during this response.”Noem added: “I think he wants it to be remade so that it’s an agency that is new in how it deploys and supports states.”Her comments follow widespread criticism of the Trump administration’s handling of the Texas floods as reports emerged of thousands of calls from flood survivors being left unanswered by Fema’s call centers due to unextended contracts.Earlier this week, the New York Times reported that Fema did not answer nearly two-thirds of calls to its disaster assistance line. The outlet also reported that Noem, who implemented a new policy that she personally signs off on contracts over $100,000, did not renew the contracts until five days after they expired in the middle of the floods.Noem decried the reports as “fake news”, saying: “That report needs to be validified. I’m not certain it’s accurate, and I’m not sure where it came from, and the individuals who are giving you information out of Fema, I’d love to have them put their names behind it because the anonymous attacks to politicize the situation is completely wrong.”Noem went on to acknowledge her policy of personally signing off on contracts worth more than $100,000, saying: “It’s not extra red tape, it’s making sure everything is getting to my level, and that it’s immediately responded to.”She also praised Fema’s response as the “best response” in years to the Texas floods, saying: “This response was by far the best response we’ve seen out of Fema, the best response we’ve seen out of the federal government in many, many years, and certainly much better than what we saw under Joe Biden.”Despite Noem’s defense of the agency and the Trump administration’s handling of the crisis, many have criticized Fema as the downsized agency has seen approximately 2,000 resignations and retirements since Trump’s inauguration.Speaking to the Guardian, Michael Coen, Fema’s former chief of staff, said: “I’m concerned that Fema is going to be at a disadvantage because they don’t have the resources to respond to the disasters we know could happen, which could be two or three concurrent disasters at the same time.“Fema has eroded capacity since President Trump became president. Staff have departed. There have been cuts to grant programs and they are going to be running into a financial challenge with the disaster relief fund, because the president hasn’t requested supplemental funding from Congress.”Since taking office, Trump has routinely threatened to disband the agency which was set up by Jimmy Carter in 1979 following states’ struggle to handle major disasters. In June, Trump said that he planned to start “phasing out” Fema after hurricane season and that states would receive federal aid to respond to natural disasters.“We’re going to give out less money,” Trump said.Last month, Noem also said that Fema “fundamentally needs to go away as it exists”, adding that states should have more responsibility when handling natural disasters.However, since the Texas floods, which mark Trump’s first major natural disaster since taking office in January, his administration’s rhetoric on eliminating Fema has appeared to shift.Earlier this week, upon being asked whether he still plans to phase out the agency, Trump said it was a matter “we can talk about later”. Similarly, the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, told reporters that the federal government’s response to natural disasters was a “policy discussion that will continue”. More

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      Trump tours Texas flood damage as disaster tests vow to shutter Fema

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      During a trip on Friday to look at the devastation caused by the catastrophic flooding in Texas, Donald Trump claimed that state and federal officials had done an “incredible job”, saying of the disaster that he had “never seen anything like this”.The trip comes as he has remained conspicuously quiet about his previous promises to do away with the federal agency in charge of disaster relief.The Washington Post reported on Friday that the Trump administration has backed away from plans to abolish the Federal Emergency Management Agency, but administration officials continue to dodge questions about the agency’s future and many are still calling for serious reforms, potentially sending much of its work to the states.Since the 4 July disaster, which has killed at least 120 people, the president and his top aides have focused on the once-in-a-lifetime nature of what occurred and the human tragedy involved rather than the government-slashing crusade that has been popular with Trump’s core supporters.Speaking at a roundtable in Kerrville, Texas, Trump said that Fema deployed multiple emergency response units and he praised all the officials involved in what he said was an effective and swift response.“Every American should be inspired by what has taken place,” Trump said. He likened the flooding to “a giant, giant wave in the Pacific Ocean that the best surfers in the world would be afraid to surf”.Trump called a reporter a “bad person” for asking a question about families of the dead who are saying that their loved ones could have been saved had emergency warnings gone out before the flooding. Trump said: “I think this has been heroism. This has been incredible, the job you’ve all done.”In an NBC News interview on Thursday, Trump said: “Nobody ever saw a thing like this coming.” He added: “This is a once-in-every-200-years deal.” He has also suggested he would have been ready to visit Texas within hours but did not want to burden authorities still searching for the more than 170 people who are still missing.Trump’s shift in focus underscores how tragedy can complicate political calculations, even though the president has made slashing the federal workforce and charging ally turned antagonist Elon Musk with dramatically shrinking the size of government centerpieces of his administration’s opening months.The president traveled to Texas on Air Force One with Melania Trump, the first lady; Brooke Rollins, the agriculture secretary; Scott Turner, the housing secretary; the small business administrator, Kelly Loeffler; and senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz of Texas, among others. Trump is expected to do an aerial tour of some of the hard-hit areas.Before arriving at the Happy State Bank Expo Hall in Kerrville, where he delivered remarks, the president and his motorcade stopped at an area near the Guadalupe River in Kerrville next to an overturned tractor-trailer and downed trees. Damage appeared to be more extensive near the riverbank. Trump, his wife and the Texas governor, Greg Abbott, took a briefing about flooding there from local officials.Trump has used past disaster response efforts to launch political attacks. While still a candidate trying to win back the presidency, Trump made his own visit to North Carolina after Hurricane Helene last year and accused the Biden administration of blocking disaster aid to victims in Republican-heavy areas.During his first weekend back in the White House, Trump again visited North Carolina to survey Helene damage and toured the aftermath of devastating wildfires in Los Angeles. But he also used those trips to sharply criticize the Biden administration and California officials.During Tuesday’s cabinet meeting, Trump praised the federal flooding response. Turning to Kristi Noem, the secretary of homeland security, which oversees Fema, he said: “You had people there as fast as anybody’s ever seen.”Noem described traveling to Texas and seeing heartbreaking scenes, including around Camp Mystic, the century-old all-girls Christian summer camp where at least 27 people were killed.“The parents that were looking for their children and picking up their daughter’s stuffed animals out of the mud and finding their daughter’s shoe that might be laying in the cabin,” she said.Noem said that “just hugging and comforting people matters a lot” and “this is a time for all of us in this country to remember that we were created to serve each other”.But the secretary is also co-chairing a Fema review council charged with submitting suggestions for how to overhaul the agency in coming months.“We as a federal government don’t manage these disasters. The state does,” Noem told Trump on Tuesday.She also referenced the administration’s government-reducing efforts, saying: ”We’re cutting through the paperwork of the old Fema. Streamlining it, much like your vision of how Fema should operate.”Pressed this week on whether the White House will continue to work to shutter Fema, Karoline Leavitt would not say.“The president wants to ensure American citizens always have what they need during times of need,” the White House press secretary said. “Whether that assistance comes from states or the federal government, that is a policy discussion that will continue.”Before Trump left on Friday, Russell Vought, director of the office of management and budget, similarly dodged questions from reporters at the the White House about Fema’s future – instead noting that the agency had billions of dollars in its reserves “to continue to pay for necessary expenses” and that the president has promised Texas: “Anything it needs, it will get.”“We also want Fema to be reformed,” Vought added. “The president is going to continue to be asking tough questions of all of us agencies, no different than any other opportunity to have better government.” More

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      Trump reportedly backing away from abolition of FEMA after Texas flooding – US politics live

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      Hello and welcome to the US politics live blog. I am Tom Ambrose and I will be bringing you the latest news lines over the next couple of hours.We start with news that president Donald Trump has backed away from abolishing the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Washington Post reported on Friday.No official action is being taken to wind down FEMA, and changes in the agency will probably amount to a “rebranding” that will emphasize state leaders’ roles in disaster response, the newspaper said, citing a senior White House official.It comes as Trump heads to Texas on Friday for a firsthand look at the devastation caused by catastrophic flooding.Since the 4 July disaster, which has killed at least 120 people, the president and his top aides have focused on the once-in-a-lifetime nature of what occurred and the human tragedy involved rather than the government-slashing crusade that’s been popular with Trump’s core supporters.“Nobody ever saw a thing like this coming,” Trump told NBC News on Thursday, adding, “This is a once-in-every-200-year deal.” He’s also suggested he’d have been ready to visit Texas within hours but didn’t want to burden authorities still searching for the more than 170 people who are still missing.The president is expected to do an aerial tour of some of the hard-hit areas. The White House also says he will visit the state emergency operations center to meet with first responders and relatives of flood victims.Trump will also get a briefing from officials. Republican governor Greg Abbott, senator John Cornyn and senator Ted Cruz are joining the visit, with the GOP senators expected to fly to their state with Trump aboard Air Force One.In other developments:

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      Federal immigration officers, supported by national guard troops, used force against protesters, firing chemical munitions, during raids on two cannabis farms in California’s central coast area.

      Trump nominated a far-right influencer to serve as US ambassador to Malaysia. More

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      Did National Weather Service cuts lead to the Texas flood disaster? We don’t know | Rebecca Solnit

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      Why exactly so many people drowned in the terrible Independence Day floods that swept through Texas’s Hill Country will probably have multiple explanations that take a while to obtain. But it’s 2025, and people want answers immediately, and lots of people seized on stories blaming the National Weather Service (NWS).There were two opposing reasons to blame this vital government service. For local and state authorities, blaming a branch of the federal government was a way of avoiding culpability themselves. And for a whole lot of people who deplore the Trump/Doge cuts to federal services, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service, the idea that the NWS failed served to underscore how destructive those cuts are.Many of them found confirmation in a New York Times story that ran with the sub-headline: “Some experts say staff shortages might have complicated forecasters’ ability to coordinate responses with local emergency management officials.” Might have is not did. Complicated is not failed. It’s a speculative piece easily mistaken for a report, and its opening sentence is: “Crucial positions at the local offices of the National Weather Service were unfilled as severe rainfall inundated parts of Central Texas on Friday morning, prompting some experts to question whether staffing shortages made it harder for the forecasting agency to coordinate with local emergency managers as floodwaters rose.”A casual reader could come away thinking that staffing shortages had had consequences. But if you give the airily innuendo-packed sentence more attention, you might want to ask who exactly the anonymous experts were and whether there’s an answer to their questions. Did it actually make it harder, and did they actually manage to do this thing even though it was harder, or not? Did they coordinate with local emergency managers?The piece continues: “The staffing shortages suggested a separate problem, those former officials said,” and “suggested” sounds like we’re getting an interpretation of what these anonymous sources think might have happened or been likely to happen, rather than what actually did. Suggestions are not facts. Likelihoods are not actualities. Eventually we get to a named source: “A spokeswoman for the National Weather Service, Erica Grow Cei, did not answer questions from The New York Times about the Texas vacancies, including how long those positions had been open and whether those vacancies had contributed to the damage caused by the flooding.”In other words, there’s no answer to the suggestions and questions and intimations. Nevertheless, a lot of readers gathered the impression that this was not speculation aired by unnamed experts but confirmation that the NWS had failed. One prominent public figure with three quarters of a million BlueSky followers shared the New York Times piece with this note: “The United States government is no longer able to protect us from real hazards, such as flash floods, because it’s shifting funds to fake hazards, such as a non-existent immigrant crime wave.”If you read down a couple of dozen paragraphs in this New York Times piece, you get to the former NWS director of Congressional Affairs saying “that the local Weather Service offices appeared to have sent out the correct warnings. He said the challenge was getting people to receive those warnings, and then take action.” Nevertheless, the idea the NWS failed became so widespread that Wired magazine published a report specifically to counter it: “Some local and state officials have said that insufficient forecasts from the National Weather Service caught the region off guard. That claim has been amplified by pundits across social media, who say that cuts to the NWS and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, its parent organization, inevitably led to the failure in Texas.”They link to the pundit with almost a million followers, who had posted on Twitter: “Now TX officials are blaming a faulty forecast by NWS for the deadly impact of a storm.” Those officials are, but why would we believe them? Wired continues: “But meteorologists who spoke to Wired say that the NWS accurately predicted the risk of flooding in Texas and could not have foreseen the extreme severity of the storm.” With that, we’re onto another piece of the picture: the difference between accurately predicting a risk and knowing exactly how severe it will be.Climate change, which some reports mentioned and others did not, is both a contributing factor for specific weather disasters and a reason why the future will not necessarily look like the past. For both fires and floods, the old rules about how fast they’ll move and how big they’ll get have expired. Hotter air holds more moisture, and that can and does lead to more torrential downpours and worse flooding. On the other hand, as local newspaper the Kerrville Daily Times reported, Kerr county has a history of extremely heavy rainfall leading to rapid river rise and devastating floods.The Washington Post had a better assessment of what went right and what went wrong: “But even as weather forecasts began to hint at the potential for heavy rain on Thursday, the response exposed a disconnect: few, including local authorities, prepared for anything but their normal Fourth of July. When the precipitation intensified in the early morning hours Friday, many people failed to receive or respond to flood warnings at riverside campsites and cabins that were known to be in the floodplain.” The county, in this report, did not send its first cell-phone alert until Sunday, while “most cellphone alerts were coming from the National Weather Service’s Austin/San Antonio station. But some alerts about life-threatening flooding didn’t come until the predawn hours, and to areas where cellular reception may have been spotty.”It seems like the National Weather Service did its duty despite the cuts, but more are coming. Fossil Free Memo reports: “Just days before the flood, Texas Senator Ted Cruz helped pass the so-called Big Beautiful Bill, a sweeping fossil fuel giveaway that also slashed $200 million from Noaa’s weather forecasting and public alert programs. The money was meant to improve early warnings for exactly the kind of fast-moving, deadly flooding that just hit his own state. The cuts weren’t in the House version. Cruz added them in the Senate, behind closed doors, as chair of the committee that oversees Noaa.” The impact of cuts to vital services is going to degrade everyday life and add to the dangers we face, and as far as politicians like Ted Cruz are concerned, that’s the plan. It will be important to connect cause and effect, when there is a connection.The desire to have an explanation, and the desire for that explanation to be tidy and aligned with one’s politics, easily becomes a willingness to accept what fits. But knowing we don’t know, knowing the answers are not yet in, or there are multiple causes, being careful even with the sources that tell us what we want to hear: all this equipment to survive the information onslaughts of this moment. We all need to be careful about how we get information and reach conclusions – both the practical information about climate catastrophes and weather disasters and the journalism that reports on it. Both the weather and the news require vigilance.

      Rebecca Solnit is a Guardian US columnist More

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      in US Politics

      Deadly floods could be new normal as Trump guts federal agencies, experts warn

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      The deadly Texas floods could signal a new norm in the US, as Donald Trump and his allies dismantle crucial federal agencies that help states prepare and respond to extreme weather and other hazards, experts warn.More than 100 are dead and dozens more remain missing after flash floods in the parched area known as Texas Hill Country swept away entire holiday camps and homes on Friday night – in what appears to have been another unremarkable storm that stalled before dumping huge quantities of rain over a short period of time, a phenomena that has becoming increasingly common as the planet warms.It remains unclear why the early warning system failed to result in the timely evacuation of Camp Mystic, where 700 girls were camped on a known flood plain on the Guadalupe River, but there is mounting concern that the chaos and cuts instigated by Trump and his billionaire donor Elon Musk at the National Weather Service (NWS) and Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) may have contributed to the death toll.“This is the exact kind of storm that meteorologists, climate scientists, emergency management experts have been talking about and warning about for decades at this point, and there’s absolutely no reason that this won’t happen in other parts of the country. This is what happens when you let climate change run unabated and break apart the emergency management system – without investing in that system at the local and state level,” said Samantha Montano, professor of emergency management at Massachusetts Maritime Academy.“It takes a lot of money, expertise and time to eliminate risk and make sure that agencies are prepared to respond when a flood situation like in Texas happens. And if you eliminate those preparedness efforts, if you fire the people who do that work, then the response will not be effective.”Fema was created in 1979 by Jimmy Carter – precisely because states were struggling to cope with major disasters – and works closely with state and local government agencies to provide resources, coordination, technical expertise, leadership and communication with the public when they cannot cope alone.Upon returning to the White House, Trump immediately began threatening to disband Fema, belittling the agency amid its ongoing efforts to help communities devastated by the Los Angeles wildfires and Hurricane Helene, the category 4 storm that left at least 230 people dead in southern Appalachia.The threats were followed by a pledge to dismantle Fema at the end of the 2025 hurricane season, without offering any clear plan about what would come next. The cuts are part of the administration’s unsubstantiated claims that the states and private enterprises are capable and best positioned to provide most federal services including weather forecasting, scientific research and emergency management.Reports suggest that more than a third of Fema’s permanent full-time workforce has been fired or accepted buyouts, including some of its most experienced and knowledgeable leaders who coordinate disaster responses – which can involve multiple federal agencies for months or years.Emergency management and the weather service work hand in hand. At the NWS, more than 600 people have already been laid off or taken early retirement, leading to offices across storm and flood-prone areas of the US to be short of meteorologists and round-the-clock staffing cover. The agency has also had to scale back routine weather monitoring.Two senior meteorologists at the San Antonio NWS office, which is responsible for forecasting in the Hill Country region, were among the casualties of Musk’s buyouts and layoffs. This included the warning coordination meteorologist, who is usually responsible for liaising with local emergency managers to help translate NWS forecasts into likely impacts that inform local actions such as warnings and evacuation orders.But Trump said it was unlikely the staff cuts to the NWS will be reversed, even in the wake of the Texas floods. “I would think not,” the president said on Sunday about a possible reversal. “This was a thing that happened in seconds. Nobody expected it. Nobody saw it. Very talented people are there, they didn’t see it.”Accuweather, the popular commercial weather forecasting services, relies on the NWS for much of its foundational meteorological data and forecasts. Fema often steps in to cover emergency accommodation and reconstruction costs for Americans without adequate insurance and/or the means to rebuild.Reports suggest NWS weather balloons, which assess storm risk by measuring wind speed, humidity, temperature and other conditions that satellites may not detect, have been canceled in recent weeks from Nebraska to Florida due to staff shortages. At the busiest time for storm predictions, deadly heatwaves and wildfires, weather service staffing is down by more than 10% and, for the first time in almost half a century, some forecasting offices no longer have 24/7 cover.In May, the NWS office in eastern Kentucky scrambled to cover the overnight forecast as severe storms moved through the region, triggering multiple tornadoes that eventually killed 28 people.Despite such threats, the Republican budget bill signed by Trump last week cuts $150m in funding to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) to help improve future weather forecasts and also shrinks the amount of money to the National Science Foundation, the premier federal agency supporting basic science and engineering research, by 56% next year.The 2026 budget makes significant cuts to Noaa including terminating the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which in essence could be the end of the efforts to improve warnings for events like the Texas floods, warned Alan Gerard, former head of the Warning Research and Development Division of the Noaa National Severe Storms Laboratory, speaking on DemocracyNow! on Monday.NSF funded research has played a pivotal role in developing early warning systems for all sorts of hazards, but more work is urgently needed to improve local accuracy and community acceptability amid the growing threats due to global heating. There is no other funding source capable of filling this gap.“The Hill Country is a desert area with big rivers which have had historic major floods and that are prone to flash flooding – but like most of rural America do not have gauge systems. Without gauges, the warnings don’t come early enough, and with flash floods every 15 minutes can save lives. This is something we can do better,” said Ryan Thigpen, a flood scientist trying to improve early warning systems in Appalachia .Texas senator Ted Cruz has called for “a better system of warnings to get kids out of harm’s way” in the wake of the disaster, even though he inserted language into the “big beautiful” bill to slash Noaa’s weather forecasting upgrades. Local officials, too, have sought to distract attention away from Trump’s cuts – and their support for his plans – but the lack of leadership at Fema is impossible to ignore especially as Trump plans to visit the area with the secretary of homeland security, Kristi Noem, on Friday.David Richardson, the acting administrator of Fema, has not traveled to Texas. Richardson, a former US marine with no emergency management experience prior to his appointment in May, is most notable for his warning to agency staff to not oppose Trump’s plan for Fema or “I will run right over you.”“A lot of key people at Fema who worked there for years, decades in many cases, and hold the expertise that is needed to be able to actually move the resources of the agency, are gone. Fema is so depleted, it’s unclear if they are even capable of launching a huge response right now,” said Montano, author of Disasterology: Dispatches from the Frontlines of the Climate Crisis.“It’s not the same level as during [hurricane] Helene but there’s already a lot of inaccurate information out there, and Fema is no longer a trusted voice – we haven’t heard from the administrator, only secretary of homeland security Kristi Noem, which is very unusual. We’re almost at the point where we can say no one’s home at Fema… there is no trusted voice,” Montano added. The turmoil at the federal agencies tasked with predicting and responding to disaster comes as the threat from extreme weather grows due to the human-caused climate crisis. The Texas floods occurred in a warmer, more moisture-laden atmosphere than in the past, with one analysis finding that climate change has made conditions 7% wetter and 1.5C hotter than they would’ve been otherwise.“We have added a lot of carbon to the atmosphere, and that extra carbon traps energy in the climate system,” said Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University. “Because of this extra energy, every weather event we see now carries some influence from climate change. The only question is how big that influence is.”Meanwhile on Monday the White House described the deadly Texas floods as “an act of God”. More