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      Look on the bright side of Trump’s global tariffs | Letters

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      Although environmental considerations will not have been a motivation for Donald Trump, it is worth examining whether a comprehensive revision of global trade tariffs – notwithstanding the significant transitional economic and human costs – could generate substantial environmental benefits (Here’s one key thing you should know about Trump’s shock to the world economy: it could work, 7 April).The prevailing model of liberalised global trade facilitates the transoceanic movement of consumer goods, often to countries that possess the capacity to manufacture equivalent products domestically. The associated carbon emissions from maritime and air transport are considerable, particularly given the volume of low-cost, frequently low-durability goods entering developed markets.Restricting free trade to essential imports – goods that cannot be manufactured or grown locally – would materially reduce transport-related emissions. Additional benefits might include enhanced food system resilience, improved biosecurity and increased regulatory autonomy over quality and safety standards.Thus, albeit unintentionally, President Trump’s trade policies could contribute to environmental objectives that are traditionally pursued by other means.Patrick CosgroveChapel Lawn, Shropshire Donald Trump’s tariffs – why the fuss? As an ordinary UK citizen I see only upsides. First, it’s the Americans paying the tariffs, not us. The resulting fall in the price of oil and the value of the dollar should reduce the cost of my petrol. As Americans switch to bourbon and Californian wine, the price of my scotch whisky and French wine should come down. If other countries send more of their goods to the UK to avoid the tariffs, this will force UK producers to become more competitive to the benefit of ordinary people like me.I believe that US citizens rich enough to buy Range Rovers and the like will not balk at paying a bit more, especially as the US equivalents are so clunky. If the steel tariff forces us to nationalise British Steel, good. As for the global economic system, this is structured for the benefit of big corporations and shareholders. Perhaps it is overdue for a change.Christopher WoodageCamberley, Surrey I have long believed that the way we choose to spend our money is a political act. With an overcautious Labour government in power, spending power remains an important act of resistance. Now more than ever, I urge readers to think carefully about what they purchase and, in particular, to boycott American goods. I have lived happily without an Amazon product for over 15 years, for instance, and with the added pleasure of knowing that my spending in local shops is benefiting the local economy. If we can’t rely on our government to stand firm, let’s do it for ourselves.Prof Mark DoelSheffield “I am telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass,” Trump said during a speech at the National Republican Congressional Committee dinner in Washington on Tuesday evening. Please let the UK not be one of the countries. Surely we have more self-respect than that.Ann ClewerCanterbury Looking at recent events, it seems Donald Trump is the most successful anti-capitalist since Lenin.Keith FlettTottenham, London More

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      US small business owner says China tariffs endanger her company: ‘I could lose my home’

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      Beth Benike knew the tariffs were coming.The Minnesota veteran invented a placemat with bungee cords that hold toys or utensils, keeping them off the floor when babies toss them. It’s one of several products she created for Busy Baby, a company she runs with her brother. They are manufactured in China.She expected and budgeted for about 20-30% tariffs this year. When the first round of tariffs came in at 10%, it was manageable. Then the rate on China crept up, then up again, to 54%. That was her “oh, shit moment”, but she thought she could weather it, she told the Guardian.It didn’t stop there, though. It climbed up to 104%. She filmed a video of herself “mid-meltdown” over the extreme tariff, posting it on her social media.Busy Baby is one of many US small businesses having to reckon with monumental tariffs that could shutter their livelihoods. Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with China now includes a 125% tariff on Chinese products coming into the US. These businesses were given little more than a week to confront a budget-busting tax on their goods.View image in fullscreen“After today’s announcement, and the impending 104% tariff, I am abandoning my products in China. I am leaving them there because I simply cannot afford to ship them here,” Benike told her followers on Monday, before Trump hiked the tariff on Chinese goods up even further on Wednesday.“At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable,” Trump wrote on Truth Social Wednesday as he paused tariffs on other countries.Benike already paid about $160,000 to manufacture her products in China, and would have to pay more than that to bring them to the US. So for now, she’s trying to figure out other options: she could try to sell them overseas, or send them to another country to repackage them.“I’m terrified for my business, and I’m terrified for all the other small businesses in the United States right now, because we don’t know what to do, and we’re invested in our businesses. I could lose my home, and I don’t understand it, and I don’t know what to do,” she said in the video.After Trump’s latest increase, Benike said she was looking into sending the paid-for products to Australia, where she has friends, to have them repackaged, then importing them from there during the 90-day pause because it is at least a way to get the products she already paid for to the US.Her business has grown since she founded it in 2017, and accolades have come with it. She was named Minnesota’s small businessperson of the year by the US Small Business Administration this year. She finally got into big retailers – Target and Walmart – with small test runs. Those contracts, though, were signed before the tariffs. Walmart told her it wanted to keep and expand its offerings from Busy Baby, she said, but she had a “hard conversation” with the buyer this week to let them know she cannot add a third product to their roster because of the high tariffs.View image in fullscreen“It has completely stifled my growth in big box retail, which has been our main goal for three years– to grow into that space,” she said. “Because as a teeny, tiny business, that’s a huge achievement, huge for our brand. And now it’s halted.”The other option, the one Trump wants, is a pipe dream: manufacturing her products in the US. Benike would prefer to manufacture here, too. But a mountain of logistics, near impossibilities, stand in her way.Food-grade silicone, which she uses for her products, is not available domestically. When she looked into the cost of importing the material when she first started, it was more expensive than importing a finished product, and the prices have gone up since then. Manufacturing facilities in the US with the compression mold machines she needed require much larger runs than she can commit to. The minimum requirements for factories here was 20,000 – in China, she could do a couple thousand at a time.Making the molds for her products takes about two months. They also are made in China – many American manufacturers send American steel to China to makemolds because they’re better at it there, she said. The molds alone would cost up to $75,000 in the US. If she found a factory and the capital needed to get it all going, it would still take a minimum of four months until she had products ready to sell, she estimated.“It’s financially impossible for me to manufacture here. But even if I had an angel that just dropped a million dollars in my lap, it doesn’t make sense as a business model for how much we would have to charge for the product and charge the consumer,” she said. “It doesn’t make any sense. So I wish I understood the big picture, or how they expect us to pivot in this tiny window of time. I don’t understand, I just don’t understand this.”She said she has about two or three months’ worth of product on hand now, giving her a few months until she could theoretically go out of business if she doesn’t figure something else out. If people buy up what she has left, that at least gives her some cashflow to buy her some time to make new plans.On Tuesday, she got a call from the Small Business Administration, she said. Someone there saw her video, so she’s sending them information on her products and the machines at the factory she uses now. The agency is going to try to find a factory in the US that could make her products, but she’s not holding her breath.View image in fullscreenShe decided to post her video and speak out about the way the tariffs are affecting small businesses because she has a community of supporters and other entrepreneurs who can help and commiserate, including some who know her from her appearance on Shark Tank.Two years ago, during a different tough spot for her business, she had suicidal thoughts. The weight of being a CEO was heavy. She thought, if she was gone, at least her family would have life insurance to live on. She got help then and learned coping strategies.The thought of life insurance surfaced again this week. She caught it quickly, reminding herself that “this is a trick my brain is playing on me right now, because it doesn’t see a way out”. She wants other entrepreneurs to know they aren’t alone as they face these tariffs. She’s heard from some, who have messaged her privately to say they are feeling the same pain, but can’t speak out because it’s a business risk.Some of the comments on her video and on local news websites that have written about her predicament have not been kind. Some have said, you voted for this, or you deserve this if you voted for Trump. She did not vote for Trump, she said, but she does not know why her political beliefs matter.“No one deserves this. No one. Regardless of who they voted for,” she said. “Trump said he was going to do tariffs. We knew that. Yes, we knew tariffs were coming. I would have never in a million years guessed it would be like this.”She has more than 15 patents for the products she’s created for the “accidental business” she came up with after her son was born. She learned how to start a business, develop products, set up an e-commerce store. Now, digging her way out from huge tariffs is one more thing to learn.“We’ve got a great product, and it is a great product for babies. Babies exist all over our world, all over the planet, babies everywhere. I can’t fail,” she said. “This is my children’s livelihood. It’s my home.” More

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      Thursday briefing: Trump puts global tariffs on pause – but hikes them for China

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      Good morning. Two main pieces of news from Donald Trump yesterday: he has rolled back water efficiency standards to “make America’s showers great again”, because he likes “to take a nice shower to take care of my beautiful hair”; and he has rolled back the exorbitant tariffs he applied to many countries last week to 10% – but increased them for China. “No longer will showerheads be weak and worthless,” the White House said. This will come as welcome news for the many investors who have recently been taking a bath.It was a pretty chaotic change, all told: there were contradictory messages from Trump’s advisers on which countries would be affected, why he did it, and what Beijing should expect to happen next. Still, the markets breathed a large sigh of relief, and the S&P 500 had one of the strongest days of its postwar history. This morning, share indices in Asia have jumped in turn.But that still isn’t enough to undo the full damage that Trump’s hot-and-cold tariff policy has inflicted on the American and global economy – and only a fool would presume that a more settled approach is now a given. For the very latest, head to the business live blog; today’s newsletter explains what’s going on, and whether the reversal is a sign of strength or weakness. Here are the headlines.Five big stories

      Gaza | Israeli aircraft struck a residential block in war-ravaged northern Gaza on Wednesday, killing at least 23 people, including eight women and eight children health officials said, as the Israeli military is reportedly preparing to seize the entire city of Rafah.

      Trade | The UK and India have agreed 90% of their free trade agreement, businesses were told on a call with negotiators this week. There are hopes the UK government will succeed in finalising a highly coveted trade deal with India, a booming economy of 1.4 billion people, this year.

      Smartphones | Almost all schools in England have banned mobile phone use by pupils, according to a survey run by Rachel de Souza, the children’s commissioner for England. Among 15,000 schools, 99.8% of primaries and 90% of secondaries have some form of ban.

      Defence | Hot weather is expected to bring highs of 24C to the UK as fire services continue to warn of wildfires across the country. The Met Office said temperatures would peak on Friday in London and south-east England, which could make it the hottest day of the year so far, while temperatures could hit 23C on Thursday.

      BBC | A controversial sculpture outside the BBC’s headquarters has been restored and put back on display behind a screen after being vandalised, with the corporation saying it in no way condoned the “abusive behaviour” of its creator, Eric Gill. There have long been calls for Gill’s works to be removed since his diaries revealed he had sexually abused his two eldest daughters.
      In depth: ‘THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!’View image in fullscreenAt 9.37am Eastern Time, Donald Trump advised his followers with an appetite for speculation: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” Less than four hours later, in what Treasury secretary Scott Bessent magnificently described as “one of the most extraordinary Truth posts of his Presidency,” he announced the rollback of his tariff policy, and the market duly soared. Is it insider trading if your source is the president?Anyway, as the dust settled, traders kept buying. That was claimed as a major victory by Trump: “It’s up almost 2,500 points,” he said. “Nobody’s ever heard of it. It’s got to be a record.” But the reality is that the mood of uncertainty he has created will not easily be dispelled.What does the US tariff regime look like now?With the caveat that this is liable to change at any moment even though everyone in the White House is now asleep, here’s where things now stand: China’s tariff was raised to 125%, which means – given an existing 25% tariff – that some goods are now subject to an additional 150% rate. That is massively up on the 34% Trump announced last week. With a new 84% tariff in response yesterday, Trump again said that Beijing has been “ripping off the USA”. Every other country which saw its tariff raised above the baseline 10% in Trump’s “liberation day” announcement has seen the rate dialled back to that 10%. So no change for the UK; a very significant change for Vietnam (46%), India (26%), the European Union (20%), and the Falkland Islands (41%), whose 3,600 residents can now resume selling Americans frozen fish. Trump initially claimed that this was because more than 75 countries, of 190 affected, had sought to negotiate a deal without retaliating. The higher tariffs are paused for 90 days, and could be reimposed or increased again. There was some confusion over what would happen to Mexico and Canada, whose tariffs were not included in the announcement last week because they had already been set as high as 25% on a large proportion of their exports. Scott Bessent said the 10% rate would apply to them too; the White House later contradicted him and said that their tariffs would remain unchanged.Where does this leave China?In truth, the new announcement doesn’t change much. With tariffs that high, Trump might as well set them to a gazillion per cent and demand every import comes with a free Fabergé egg: the additional rate will make a minimal difference, because hardly anyone will be exporting anything from China to the US. The World Trade Organization forecast yesterday that trade between the two countries could drop by 80%, or $466bn a year.So is the goal to tank the Chinese economy, or to force China to negotiate? That was unclear yesterday. Bessent praised Trump for “goading China into a bad position” so that they “showed themselves to the world to be the bad actor”. That would seem to imply the tank strategy. But Trump himself took a much sunnier line later on: he told reporters that president Xi Jinping “is a smart guy and we’ll end up making a very good deal.”It is certainly plausible that the two sides will eventually arrive at some figure that both can present as a victory domestically. But as Amy Hawkins writes in this piece, that is unlikely to be on the basis of a major Chinese retreat. That is partly because Chinese exports to the US are largely consumer goods, badly exposed to eye-watering price increases, while the goods going the other way are commodities whose expense can be at least somewhat absorbed before they reach the consumer market.What about the UK?In one sense, the UK is exactly where it started: because it was already on the lowest 10% rate, nothing has changed. On the other hand, the fact that 10% is now the same rate as almost everyone else erases the comparative advantage that has been presented as a bright side.Speaking to ITV before the latest announcement, Keir Starmer reiterated that “a trade war is in nobody’s interest” but that retaliatory measures remained on the table. He also acknowledged that it was impossible to know if the 10% will ever be removed. In this piece, Rowena Mason reports that Whitehall sources are “increasingly downbeat” about striking a deal to reduce the tariffs.Why did Trump do it?That depends on who you ask. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt implied that the change was part of a long-term strategy, saying that reporters had “clearly missed the art of the deal” and “failed to see what President Trump is doing here”. Bessent claimed similarly that this had been Trump’s “strategy all along”. And Trump advisor Stephen Miller claimed it was “the greatest economic master strategy from an American president in history”.But those confident assertions looked a bit shakier when Trump himself emerged to speak to reporters and said that he was acting in a “flexible” way, and that he reacted because “people … were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid”. He also said that “A lot of times it’s not a negotiation until it is”, so make of that what you will. As for what he does next: that will be based on “instinct”, he said.The economist Mohamed El-Erian suggested that Trump was responding above all to a major sell-off in US government debt, a dangerous sign of investor scepticism of the US since its bonds are generally viewed as a safe harbour in an economic storm. The New York Times reports that Bessent and other advisors emphasised the issue in a meeting with Trump yesterday morning. But if you concluded that Trump may just as easily have made a capricious choice based on no serious rationale at all, you wouldn’t sound like an idiot.Where does this leave the markets – and the wider global economic outlook?In the context of the last week, this was a euphoric day for traders. The S&P 500 rose 9.5%, its biggest single-day climb since 2008; 494 of the 500 stocks covered ended higher than they began. One index of the improving mood was Goldman Sachs’ decision to rescind their recession forecast within hours of making it. Overnight, Asian markets have also climbed, and futures – a way to bet on prices ahead of markets opening – were up for European stocks and the FTSE 100.On the other hand, the S&P 500 is still down a significant 11.2% on where it was in February – and 10% universal tariffs are still a really big deal. Bob Elliott, a prominent hedge fund manager, said the market response was “likely far too positive” and noted that when taken alongside the Chinese rate and sector-specific rates elsewhere, the effective overall rate on imports is closer to 20%. That is only down 5% on where it stood before Trump’s announcement, and higher than it has been since the 1930s.The China tariffs alone could lead to a long term reduction in global GDP by nearly 7%, the WTO estimated. And when the dust settles, many companies will still be deeply sceptical that they can count on the kind of stability that tends to promote investment, new hiring, and economic growth.For now, the next questions are whether deals start to be struck, and whether improving share prices are the start of a sustained recovery or merely a “relief rally”. Jake Schurmeier, a portfolio manager at Harbor Capital Advisors, told Bloomberg: “Good news doesn’t eliminate the overarching uncertainty. We [will] likely go higher for a few days, but I think permanent damage has been done.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionWhat else we’ve been readingView image in fullscreen

      Richard Wright (above) once painted 47,000 stars on the ceiling of Amsterdam’s Rijksmuseum. Charlotte Higgins talks to the Turner prize-winning artist about his gorgeous, insanely intricate work – which he describes as “torture”. Alex Needham, acting head of newsletters

      Amazon’s prestige drama about Jesus Christ, The Chosen, claims to have reached 280 million viewers – and it’s just the tip of the holy iceberg. Steve Rose has a great piece about how the Messiah became TV and box office gold. Archie

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      The speed of Trump’s transformation (or degradation) of America has been breathtaking. Osita Nwanevu steps back and surveys the epic scale of the damage: “Humiliation, immiseration, chaos and more of all to come.” Alex
      SportView image in fullscreenFootball | A late goal for Nuno Mendes (above) gave Paris St-Germain a two-goal cushion in their Champions League quarter-final tie against Aston Villa. The 3-1 victory in the first leg came despite Morgan Rogers’ 35th minute opener for the visitors. In the night’s other first leg match, Barcelona beat Dortmund 4-0.Football | Liverpool are increasingly confident Mohamed Salah will sign a contract extension beyond this summer after progress in talks over recent weeks. It is a significant boost with the captain, Virgil van Dijk, also likely to extend his stay beyond June.The boat race | The bad blood between Oxford and Cambridge continues to fester in the buildup to Sunday’s University Boat Race, with fallout from the row over a ban on PGCE students competing leading to the abandonment of the women’s trial race on Wednesday morning.The front pagesView image in fullscreenTrump’s 90-day pause on tariffs dominate the front pages today. The Guardian splashes on “Trump pauses global trade war but hits China with 125% tariffs”, the Times leads with “Trump puts the brakes on tariffs for 90 days” and the Daily Telegraph has “Trump blinks first in trade war”. The FT is going with “Stocks soar as Trump presses tariffs pause button and hits China harder”, the Mail leads with “Trump blinks … but doubles down on China” and the Metro has “Trump risks the great maul of China”. In the Mirror, it’s “Great War of China”.In the Express, it’s “Kemi: PM must make more of our Brexit freedoms.” And the Sun runs with a story about Chelsea footballer Moises Caicedo allegedly driving without a licence, and “Police in swoop on £115m Chelsea ace”.Today in FocusView image in fullscreenRats, rubbish and rising taxes: why Birmingham stinks right nowWhy have the city’s bin collectors gone on strike? Jessica Murray reportsCartoon of the day | Ben JenningsView image in fullscreenThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badView image in fullscreenMetuktire, a village in the Indigenous Capoto-Jarina territory in the Brazilian Amazon , stands as a stronghold against logging and mining in the rainforest. The village has preserved its traditional ways while embracing sustainable energy through solar panels.The community actively resists illegal intrusion by patrolling their territory and educating younger generations on environmental protection. They maintain their customs, such as harvesting cassava, while adopting modern conveniences such as mobile phones and solar panels (pictured above).Chief Beptok Metuktire remains a beacon of resilience fiercely defending the local heritage. “We have had goldminers and outsiders who wanted to occupy our lands,” he says. “We show them that this is our territory.”Bored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

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      Full list of Trump’s tariffs: a country by country look after the 90-day pause

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      Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries except China, whose tariffs he raised to 125% on Wednesday.After insisting for days that he would hold firm on his aggressive trade strategy, Trump announced that all countries that had not retaliated against US tariffs would receive a reprieve – and only face a blanket US tariff of 10% – until July.The White House’s press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said Trump had raised tariffs against China because “when you punch at the United States of America, President Trump is going to punch back harder.”Here is a look at the full list of tariffs Trump originally threatened – and the new updated rate country by country: More

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      Republicans trying to change rules to avoid House vote on Trump tariffs

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      Republicans are quietly pushing a procedural rule that would curb the power of the US Congress to override Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff policy.The House of Representatives’ rules committee on Wednesday approved a measure that would forbid the House from voting on legislation to overturn the president’s recently imposed taxes on foreign imports.The sleight of hand was embedded in procedural rule legislation setting up debate on a separate issue: the budget resolution that is central to Trump’s agenda.If adopted, the rule would in effect stall until October a Democratic effort to force a floor vote on a resolution disapproving of the national emergency that Trump declared last week to justify the tariffs. This mirrors a similar tactic used previously to shield Trump’s earlier tariffs.The move came as Trump announced a major reversal on Wednesday, with a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries while raising them to 125% for China.Despite concerns that Republicans were set to endorse another potential expansion of presidential power, Mike Johnson, the House speaker, asserted the tariffs were an “America First” policy that required space to be effective.He told reporters: “I’ve made it very clear, I think the president has executive authority. It’s an appropriate level of authority to deal with unfair trade practices … That’s part of the role of the president is to negotiate with other countries … and he is doing that, in my estimation, very effectively right now.”Republicans moved against a resolution introduced by Gregory Meeks of New York, along with other House Democrats, seeking to end the national emergency declared on 2 April. This declaration was used by Trump to implement sweeping new tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.Republicans’ blockade specifically targets the expedited process for reviewing national emergencies outlined in the National Emergencies Act. It stipulates that the period between 9 April and 30 September will not count towards the 15-day window that typically allows for fast-tracked floor votes on disapproval measures.Democrats strongly condemned the action, accusing Republicans of obstructing debate and prioritising Trump over the economy and congressional oversight.Teresa Leger Fernandez, a congresswoman from New Mexico, said: “We only need four Republicans, only four Republicans to vote with Democrats to review the tariffs and stop this madness … Do you support tariffs that are throwing our economy into recession? Do you support tariffs that are hurting our families? … Then get up on the floor and debate that. But don’t prevent us from having that debate.”Congresswoman Suzan DelBene of Washington added: “Congress should have a role here. It’s terrible that my colleagues on the other side of the aisle aren’t willing to have a vote, too.”Although the rule change hinders the expedited process under the National Emergencies Act, it does not completely eliminate other avenues for forcing a vote, such as a discharge petition, though these are often difficult to achieve.Meeks said: “They can run but they can’t hide. At some point they’re going to have to vote … We’re not going to stop. The American people have a right to know whether you’re for the tariffs or against them. And if they vote this rule in, that will show that they’re trying to hide.”But Republicans countered that Democrats had used similar procedural tactics to block votes on issues such as ending the Covid-19 national emergency when they held the House majority.The rules committee chair, Virginia Foxx of North Carolina, said: “A reminder about those who live in glass houses … This is a tool utilised by both Democrat and Republican majorities.”This is not the first time Republican leadership has employed such a tactic to shield Trump’s tariff decisions. A similar rule was adopted previously to prevent votes on resolutions targeting earlier tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, as well as levies on Canada specifically. More

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      Jimmy Kimmel: ‘Somehow Donald Trump has managed to transform the stock market into Kanye West’

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      Late-night hosts recap Donald Trump’s escalation of a trade war that many expect will lead to a global recession.Jimmy Kimmel“What a crazy country we live in. It’s hard to remember what things we used to be worried about,” said Jimmy Kimmel on Tuesday evening, as the markets once again roiled with Trump’s escalation of his tariffs on nearly all countries. “The Dow, the Nasdaq, the S&P all down again today. Somehow Donald Trump has managed to transform the stock market into Kanye West.”Trump, meanwhile, didn’t seem bothered by the worst week on Wall Street since March 2020. Instead, he posted on Truth Social that he would undergo his annual physical examination at Walter Reed medical center on Friday. “I bet it’s going to be an excellent report,” Kimmel deadpanned. “Let me guess: his physical strength and stamina are extraordinary, his blood pressure is astonishing and he is by far the healthiest president to successfully tank the world economy overnight.“I will say, after all he’s put us through, it will be nice to know that on Friday, somebody will be squeezing his balls for a change,” he added.In light of the economic downturn, Kimmel referenced an old quote of Trump, saying: “There’s a lot of opportunity in the bad times.”“And now there’s nothing but opportunity as far as the eye can see,” Kimmel joked. “It’s a Chernobyl of opportunity right now.”On Tuesday, Trump heaped even more tariffs on Chinese imports, effectively a 104% tax on all goods. “How’s he even coming up with these numbers?” Kimmel fumed. “‘What do you think about a tariff of 100% on China? Not enough! Make it 104!’”In response, the Chinese ministry of commerce said the tariffs were “mistake on top of a mistake” – “which is also what Trump said when Eric was born”, Kimmel quipped.Stephen Colbert“The tariffs are already hitting Americans right in the joystick,” said Stephen Colbert on the Late Show. Gamers were supposed to be able to order Nintendo Switch 2 consoles on Wednesday, but now the company has delayed orders to the US because of Trump’s tariffs.“What am I supposed to do without a new Mario game?” Colbert wondered. “Take a bunch of mushrooms and jump on turtles in real life? That’s what got me banned from the petting zoo.”The markets had a brief upturn on Tuesday, when rumors circulated that Trump may back down from his trade war. Asked by reporters if he would back down or if the tariffs were permanent, Trump answered paradoxically: “It could both be true.”“No, you can’t say it’s temporary and it’s permanent,” said Colbert. “That’s like being asked to call heads or tails and saying ‘I call coin.’”But around noon local time on Tuesday, the White House confirmed that they would levy a 104% tariff on all Chinese imports starting at midnight on Tuesday, “and the market stepped on a rake and then stepped down a mineshaft”, said Colbert. “One hundred and four percent Chinese tariffs are going to make everything more expensive – iPhones, laptops, those wonderful knockoff toys you can find only at the gas station like New Style Ninja Tortoise.”As for the Chinese ministry of commerce’s response – “the US threat to escalate tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake” – Colbert had a wisecrack: “Coincidentally, it’s also what it’s called when Don Jr gives Eric a piggyback ride.”Seth MeyersOn Tuesday, Trump welcomed the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers to the White House, and praised star player Shohei Ohtani with “he’s got a good future, I’m telling you”.“Not exactly a bold prediction – ‘I think that guy who won three MVP awards is going to turn out to be a pretty good ballplayer,’” Seth Meyers joked on Late Night.In other news, Elon Musk and the so-called “department of government efficiency” (Doge) are reportedly working with Boeing to resolve delays in the new model of Air Force One. “Because nothing inspires confidence like hearing ‘Boeing built this in a hurry,’” Meyers joked.On Friday, Trump headlined a fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago that cost $1m a plate. “Unfortunately, due to the price of groceries, they only broke even,” Meyers quipped.And according to a new analysis by the Washington Post, Trump has spent one-third of his days in office at his golf courses. “And I think we might be better off if we could somehow get that up to three thirds,” said Meyers.The Daily Show“It’s been one week since Donald Trump announced his bold vision for destroying the economy,” said Desi Lydic on the Daily Show. “And guess what? His plan is working.”Lydic pointed to a graph of the Dow Jones since Trump took office, which plunged precipitously after the president announced his tariffs. “I’m not an economist, but it’s probably a bad sign when the chart itself looks like it jumped off the roof,” she said. “Look at that drop! Six Flags is going to make a roller coaster of that.”“The president may have singlehandedly tipped us into a global recession,” Lydic continued. “And with so much uncertainty, the world is glued to the financial news networks, who are surely focusing on this story 24/7, right Fox Business?”In fact, Fox’s business network focused on the LA Dodgers visiting the White House, and not Trump’s 104% tax on Chinese imports. “This is getting really serious. We’ll know exactly how serious one we get China to do the math for us,” Lydic joked. “But point is: Trump is out of control right now. I’d say he’s like a bull in a china shop, but at 104%, I can’t afford to say that.” More

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      Two visions within Trump world are battling for primacy. Which will win? | Ben Davis

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      The start of the second Trump administration has been chaotic, to put it mildly. It is difficult for Americans to understand what exactly the administration is trying to do and how it will affect them. It has been simultaneously a colossal remaking of the US state and the entire global order, but also seemingly haphazard, with significant policy decisions such as spending cuts and tariff rates clearly made with little thought or preparation. Analysts and commentators of all stripes have speculated on the motives and strategy behind the Trump administration’s huge overhaul of society. But what is the Trump administration’s plan for the US?The primary moves the administration has made are major cuts to federal government capacity through the “department of government efficiency” (Doge) and now an unprecedented tariff regime that has sent financial markets into a free fall. Some view these changes as part of a grand overarching strategy to rebuild some version of an imagined past America: globally hegemonic and able to exercise power nakedly over other countries, economically self-sufficient with a large manufacturing base, and a reassertion of the previous social norms and order around gender, race, and sexuality. But a deeper dive into the Trump administration’s explanation of their policies and vision reveals that rather than a single, coherent ideological project, the Trump administration is sclerotic and being used as a vehicle for more than one competing ideological project.While the first Trump administration had no real ideological project, with Donald Trump’s surprise win being based on a personalist coalition without the backing of an organized movement, and different factions within the administration battling for control over policy and favor from the president, the second Trump administration was backed and is staffed by two major ideological projects, representing different segments of capital: the oft-discussed “national conservatism” of the Claremont Institute, the Heritage Foundation and Project 2025, and tech capital, which has used Trump as a vehicle for its own priorities.These two overarching political projects and visions both see Trump as able to advance their goals, but these projects are competing with each other. Both have accepted that Republicans will lose the midterms in 2026, as the president’s party nearly always does, and are thus trying to radically reshape society in that time in ways that can’t easily be reversed. They have deeply different visions for the future, and whether one wins out or both of their incompatible sets of policies are carried out will have enormous implications for the lives of Americans and people around the globe.On tariffs, the administration has offered multiple, mutually exclusive visions: with some viewing tariffs as primarily a way to rebuild US manufacturing by incentivizing producers to build in the US; some viewing tariffs as primarily a way to raise revenue, cut the deficit, and in the long-term replace the income tax entirely; and some viewing tariffs primarily as a negotiating tool to force countries to make concessions to the US on a variety of issues.Trump personally has suggested that the US become an autarky, with no trade of any kind with the outside world. It’s unclear which of these will be the plan because they each have dramatically different implications for how the tariffs are structured in the long-term, how long they will last, and their effects on US workers.In the first two views, the tariffs are a part of the national conservative project of returning the US to a previous social order. They view the nation-state as the primary actor in a zero-sum anarchic global order of competing nation-states seeking to dominate each other. Tariffs are then a way of reasserting US national power relative to other states. This fits in with Trump’s rhetoric about the US, taking the country back and reasserting American nationhood, and is the primary way analysts and commentators have viewed the administration.The tech capital that oversees Doge, however, has a different project entirely. Elon Musk, who has personally overseen the large-scale slashing of the federal government, rejects tariffs entirely. The Doge project and the tariff project are at odds. The Doge project is cloaked in the rhetoric of retro America First nationalism that would seem on its face (and is understood as by its supporters) to be precisely the opposite of what it is in practice: the outmoding of the nation-state entirely.It’s notable that the first target for Doge’s cuts were not the New Deal programs conservatives have long wanted to cut, but instead the cold war-era nodes of American state power: scientific research, funding for education and the arts, foreign aid, and other programs that were created to allow the US to outcompete the Soviet Union and other countries. Musk does not care about American great power competition, such as with China, as Trump does. Indeed, Musk has close ties with the Chinese state.For Musk and his cohorts, the US must progress past the nation state model – where the state exist to project power against other nation states and part of this bargain is keeping a certain social compact of living standard with citizens – to the vendor state model where international firms are paramount and states exist instead to compete for their favor. The Doge project of Silicon Valley technolibertarianism aims to sublimate the state to capital entirely and to outsource state capacity to transnational tech firms. This is, rather than an end of globalization as the national conservatives want, the final conclusion of globalization, where international capital exists above and beyond the bounds of the nation-state.This is the reason large swathes of tech capital reversed course on Trump during the Biden administration and became his biggest financial backers. For them, Trump exists as a vehicle for their overall project.Both of these projects are disastrous for the American people on their own, but both being partially implemented in opposing ways is even worse and will lead to disaster for US workers and our society’s basic capacity to function.While the tariffs by themselves are devastating to US consumers and could lead to a major economic crisis, the Doge cuts strip state capacity that would be needed to implement the most positive vision of tariffs returning manufacturing jobs. While tariffs drive up prices on things like semiconductors or electric vehicles, the government is simultaneously slashing the programs designed to encourage these goods to be manufactured domestically. And while the Doge cuts have slashed the state and led to the direct capture of swathes of the state by tech capital, their overall project of global tech hegemony cannot progress in a world where international trade has broken down completely.Trump and the national conservative’s dream of a return to a pre-financialization manufacturing-based economy, where the US has security through economic self-reliance, and the tech right’s commitment to creating shareholder value at all costs, and whose entire model is based entirely on the result of financialization, are incompatible and on a collision course. Different sections of capital – tech on the one hand, and the revanchist small capital class who form national conservatism’s base on the other – have different and competing interests and control of different sections of administration policy. The consequences of this intranecine competition are enormous, but either way, the next four years look dire for the American working class. The damage may take generations to fix.

      Ben Davis works in political data in Washington DC. He worked on the data team for the Bernie Sanders 2020 campaign More