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      Wednesday briefing: What the latest wave of tariffs mean for the US, UK, Europe – and you

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      Good morning. According to Donald Trump, it’s “liberation day”: the advent of a new trade order in which Americans reap the benefit of massive tariffs on imports, and the rest of the world picks up the tab.Unsurprisingly, the United States’ trading partners tend to take a very different view. And they are doing everything they can to avoid being passive targets for the White House’s carnivorous vision of American exceptionalism.Trump will announce his plans at 4pm Eastern Time (9pm UK) in the White House’s Rose Garden – but it is still not clear whether a flat rate will be applied globally, or if the charge will vary by country instead. Even at the last minute, countries including the UK are hoping that they might win exceptions; political leaders, and financial markets, are on edge.For today’s newsletter, Guardian correspondents explain what the tariffs mean around the world – and when you can expect to feel the impact in your pocket. Here are the headlines.Five big stories

      Israel-Gaza war | Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz announced a major expansion of the military operation in Gaza on Wednesday, saying large areas of the enclave would be seized and added to the security zones of Israel. Follow the latest here.

      Israel-Gaza war | Some of the bodies of 15 Palestinian paramedics and rescue workers, killed by Israeli forces and buried in a mass grave in Gaza, were found with their hands or legs tied and had gunshot wounds to the head and chest, according to two eyewitnesses. The accounts add to evidence pointing to a potentially serious war crime on 23 March.

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      US politics | Cory Booker, the Democratic US senator from New Jersey, has broken the record for longest speech ever by a lone senator by spending 25 hours and five minutes inveighing against Donald Trump in the chamber. Booker’s speech was intended to highlight the “grave and urgent” danger that Trump poses to democracy.

      Cinema | Val Kilmer, the actor best known for his roles in Top Gun, Batman Forever and The Doors, has died at the age of 65. His daughter Mercedes told the New York Times that the cause of death was pneumonia.
      In depth: Concessions, retaliation, ‘friendshoring’ – and a new mood of volatilityView image in fullscreenOn Monday, Donald Trump told reporters that he had “settled” on a tariff plan – but according to CNN, White House officials were still presenting him with options on Tuesday. And White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that he was “always up” for a phone call or negotiation with foreign leaders hoping to plead their case.That suggests the satisfaction Trump takes in the power he is able to exert through the United States’ economic might. And whereas in his first term he appeared sensitive to the markets giving his economic policies the thumbs down, he seems genuinely more bullish this time around. Even on the question of whether consumers will pay more, he has so far stuck to the line that the cost will be worth it in the end.“I couldn’t care less if they raise prices, because people are going to start buying American-made cars,” he said of tariffs on foreign cars on Sunday. And last month, of the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, he said: “We may have, short term, a little pain. People understand that.”Here’s what that stance means around the world.UK | What is Downing Street’s strategy?View image in fullscreenLast night, Pippa Crerar, Heather Stewart and Richard Partington reported that the UK is ready to offer a significant reduction in its digital services tax, a 2% levy on UK revenues that applies to big American tech firms including Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, eBay, and Apple.But while business secretary Jonathan Reynolds has insisted that the UK is in “the best possible position of any country to reach an agreement”, Downing Street acknowledges that it is unlikely to get a deal before tariffs come in on a global scale.“They’ve been aiming at an exemption ever since Trump was inaugurated,” Pippa, the Guardian’s political editor, said – one key reason that Peter Mandelson, a trade expert, was appointed as US ambassador. “Trump has talked about ‘being nice’ to countries that ‘haven’t made a fortune’ out of the US – they hope that’s aimed at us.”“They remain hopeful he’ll row back quickly because they say a trade deal is ready to go,” she added. “Despite what they say, the trade deal is as much or more about avoiding tariffs as having a brilliant economic relationship. So it’s a defensive move.”As well as the digital services tax, Trump appears to view VAT as unfair. “I just don’t see how they could change that,” Pippa said. “It’s paid by all companies, not just US ones. And there’s some anger within Labour that the US is trying to interfere with domestic taxation systems.”That speaks to some of the risks of caving to Trump’s demands. “They’re always thinking of the politics of it,” Pippa said. “But they believe that it’s worth a few bad headlines back home about sucking up to Trump to avoid the potential damage of a full blown trade war with the US which could cost our economy billions.”Markets | What kind of impact are we seeing?“We’ve had plenty of volatility already this year, partly because many analysts were complacent about how disruptive Trump would be,” said Graeme Wearden, who runs the Guardian’s daily business liveblog.“Several Wall Street firms have already cut their end-of-year forecasts for the US stock market in recent weeks, which shows that some of the recent drama is being priced in. But, having seen the US president announce tariffs against Mexico and Canada, and then delay them, investors probably won’t assume the Rose Garden announcement will be the end of the story.”MCSI’s index of global stocks showed a 4.5% fall in March, the biggest decline since September 2022. But that impact has not been evenly distributed. “There’s been a clear rotation out of US stocks this year, and into Europe,” Graeme said. “While the S&P 500 index of US shares is down 4.5% during 2025, the pan-European Stoxx 600 has jumped 6%.” The FTSE 100 has enjoyed its best quarter since 2022 as traders have looked for alternatives to US firms.If you’re looking for other signs that this is a nervous moment, the Cboe Volatility Index (Wall Street’s “fear gauge”), has climbed by a third in the last week – and is up 50% on a year ago. That is “a sign that investors expect volatile times”, Graeme said. But he added: “It was three times higher during the 2008 financial crisis, showing that a) investors aren’t in a full-blown panic, and b) there’s room for more volatility.”World | How are other countries responding?The UK is not the only country to seek carve-outs from Trump’s threatened universal tariffs: Japan, for example, has tried to persuade the US its manufacturers should be exempted from the 25% car tariff, and South Korea has sought an exemption from steel and aluminium exports.But the wider pattern is of major economic counterparts seeking to respond in kind. “Certainly the EU is expected to retaliate, and we’ve already seen Canada, for instance, hit back,” said economics editor Heather Stewart. “They’re most likely to try and pick up on specific products that hit the US without screwing up their own supply chains too much … Retaliation will tend to make the economic impact of tariffs worse; but politically, it’s understandable that countries want to look tough.”The other major plank of the global response has been an acceleration in moves towards “friendshoring” – the strategy of reorienting trade policies towards trusted allies with a more reliable approach. China, Japan and South Korea are holding talks over a new free trade deal, for example.“It was already happening to some extent,” Heather said, partly because of “renewed awareness of extended supply chains that came with Covid and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But I would definitely expect more deals that exclude the US.”Cost of living | When am I going to start feeling the impact?It’s still too early for the specific costs attached to tariffs to be felt in a major way by consumers – but “the price impact could already be beginning”, economics correspondent Richard Partington said. “Some economists reckon firms will raise their prices under the cover of tariffs, with the assumption that consumers think prices will rise – even if tariffs on those goods are never actually introduced.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionWhile that is hard to quantify, there is evidence from the US during Trump’s first term – when the cost of clothes dryers went up because of a tariff on imported washing machines – that it is a plausible path. Something similar might happen in the UK on goods sold from the US using components sourced from overseas, Richard said – but it’s also possible that “trade reallocation”, where countries send exports that might have gone to the US to other trading partners, could lead to price cuts.Consumers will be affected in other ways that are less direct – but no less real. There has been a marked impact on consumer confidence surveys, Richard said, and businesses are holding back on their spending plans. “The potential UK impact has been best spelled out so far by the OBR,” Richard said. “In the worst case scenario of global trade disputes escalating to include 20 percentage point rises in tariffs between the USA and the rest of the world, this could reduce UK GDP by a peak of 1%.”That would wipe out all of Rachel Reeves’ storied fiscal headroom by the fifth year of forecasts, making tax rises in the autumn inevitable. Uncertainty is another intangible but consequential factor, he added – “like a slow puncture on the global and UK economy”. You can keep juddering on – but it’s anybody’s guess when you’ll suddenly veer off the road.What else we’ve been readingView image in fullscreen

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      Oliver Wainwright’s writing on architecture is always compulsively enjoyable, and his review of a new student complex in Oxford meets those expectations. With “rhubarb and custard-coloured stonework” and a “bulbous roof of polygonal scales”, the overall effect is a “hallucinatory sense that you might have been swallowed into the belly of a cuddly toy”. Archie

      Reviewing culture has had an outsized influence on my decision-making: less than a 4.5 out of 5 rating and I likely won’t go to a restaurant or buy a product. But how helpful is it really? Chloë Hamilton asks what this level of “mutual surveillance” is doing to our lives. Nimo

      On the one hand, Daniel Lavelle has two degrees and two books to his name; on the other, he left education at 14 and started working life in a cotton mill. So where does he fit into Britain’s suffocating class system? His attempt to make sense of it all has the vital quality of thinking out loud, but no straightforward answers. Archie

      I recently started Benjamín Labatut’s novel The Maniac and I have never felt so engrossed in a book that focusses so closely on mathematics and physics. In this disquieting book that spans a century, Labatut examines the dark foundations of our modern world and the extraordinary and troubled minds behind it. Nimo
      SportView image in fullscreenFootball | Bukayo Saka scored the decisive goal in Arenal’s 2-1 win against Fulham seven minutes after coming off the bench on his return from injury. In the night’s other Premier League matches, Nottingham Forest beat Manchester United 1-0 and Wolves beat West Ham 1-0.Cricket | Charlotte Edwards has been named as the new England women’s head coach. The former England captain put her hat in the ring in February, when changes were expected after a disastrous tour of Australia last winter in which England lost the Ashes by 16 points to nil.Rugby | There remains a “high degree of uncertainty” over whether tens of millions of pounds paid to rugby union clubs and other sports teams during the Covid-19 pandemic will ever be repaid, a House of Commons committee has warned. The committee said that the Department for Culture, Media and Sport has been “overly optimistic” about loans worth £474m.The front pagesView image in fullscreen“PM offers US tech firms tax cut in return for lower Trump tariffs” says the Guardian’s splash headline, while the Telegraph’s version is “Starmer’s 11th-hour bid to halt trade war”. It’s “Trump trade madness” and “CARnage” on the front of the Mirror while the Times has “Firms told to brace for impact of Trump tariffs”. The Daily Mail finds reason to be cheerful: “Trump’s tariffs threaten crisis for Reeves” and the Express runs with “Don’t provoke new trade war that ‘makes UK poorer’,” saying Kemi Badenoch doesn’t want Starmer to retaliate. In the i they’ve gone with “UK told to ‘prepare for the worst’ as Trump begins his global trade war”. In times like these, trust the Financial Times with your money: “Investors flock to gold as fears mount on eve of Trump tariff announcement”. “Student rapist: 23 more victims” is the top story in the Metro.Today in FocusView image in fullscreenCould Marine Le Pen’s guilty verdict help fuel the far right?The parliamentary leader of France’s far-right National Rally party, Marine Le Pen, has been banned from public office for five years for embezzlement, ruining her chance of a presidential run. Angelique Chrisafis reportsCartoon of the day | Pete SongiView image in fullscreenThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badView image in fullscreenJoy Ebaide, a Nigerian solo traveller, has embarked on many journeys across Africa, which all came with their own challenges. A heart-stopping encounter with a black mamba while riding her motorbike in Tanzania was terrifying, but it did not put her off travelling. Instead, it fuelled her desire to keep exploring. Ebaide embarked on a five-month solo journey from Mombasa to Lagos in 2024, riding a Tekken 250cc motorbike across Africa’s rugged terrains. Her travels, shared on social media, not only highlight the fun experiences but also shed light on the challenges faced by those with “weaker” passports.Ebaide is not alone in her pursuit of adventure despite these obstacles. Alma Asinobi, after facing visa refusals, set out to break a world record for visiting all seven continents. “The trip itself is a victory. Because historically, travelling as a black woman has an additional layer of complexity … I just want more women to know that you can do things, and it’s OK whether it works or not: just do things,” she says.Bored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

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      Senate Republicans consider joining Democrats to oppose Trump over tariffs

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      On the eve of Donald Trump’s so-called “liberation day” for tariffs, a handful of Senate Republicans are debating whether to defy the president and join Democrats to stop the US from imposing levies on Canadian imports.The resolution, offered by the Democratic senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, would terminate the emergency order that Trump is using to justify tariffs against Canada, citing the flow of fentanyl across the US’s northern border. The vote is largely symbolic – the House is not expected to take up the measure – but several defections would amount to a rare and notable rebuke of the president by his own party.Senator Susan Collins, a Republican of Maine, which shares a border with Canada, told reporters on Monday night that imposing tariffs on Canada was a “huge mistake” that would cause major “disruption in the economies of both countries”. The senator, one of the few Republicans with a history of breaking ranks, indicated her support for the “intent” of the resolution and suggested that she would likely lend her vote as well.Senator Rand Paul, a Republican from Kentucky, has co-sponsored the legislation. Meanwhile, several other Republican senators, including Thom Tillis of North Carolina, have expressed concern over the impact of tariffs on Canadian goods, set to go into effect on 2 April.Republican leaders on Tuesday were racing to keep their senators in line, as Trump moves quickly to upend the global trading system. In a post on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump lashed out at Kaine, who was Hillary Clinton’s running mate in 2016, and delivered an all-caps demand that Senate Republicans vote to keep the national emergency in effect so we can “finish the job”.“Don’t let the Democrats have a Victory,” Trump wrote. “It would be devastating for the Republican Party and, far more importantly, for the United States.”In an interview with the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation on Tuesday, Kaine said Trump’s tariffs on Canada amounted to the “largest sales tax ever in the history of the United States” and were based on claims of a “fake” emergency at the northern border. The senator pointed to recent congressional testimony by Trump’s director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, who cited fentanyl as a top threat to US national security but acknowledged that Canada was not a significant source of trafficking into the country.“It is an invented rationale to allow the president to do what he wants to do, which is use tariffs to collect revenues so that he can use that revenue to pay for a big tax cut for the rich,” Kaine said. He was hopeful a strong bipartisan show of support “could have an effect on curbing the president’s behavior”.A vote on the resolution could come as early as Tuesday afternoon, but may happen on Wednesday as Senator Cory Booker, Democrat of New Jersey, delivers a marathon speech on the floor to protest – and draw attention to – the Trump administration’s tumultuous opening months.In the CBC interview, Kaine said he was still working to get the support of all 47 Democrats, while indicating that he expected to win a handful of Republican votes.Trump – a self-described “tariff man” who believes levies are the answer to many economic woes – is also challenging Republican orthodoxy on free trade, leaving a handful of GOP senators torn between swallowing a policy they disagree with or opposing the president.He has moved aggressively to slap tariffs on allies, neighbors and top trading partners, provoking retaliation and shaking global markets. Trump has said he would roll out the new tariffs on Wednesday, claiming the taxes on imports from other countries will “liberate” Americans from their reliance on foreign goods.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionFears of a global trade war have hurt consumer confidence and caused wild swings in the stock markets. They have also hurt Americans’ assessment of Trump’s job performance as it relates to the economy, once one of his biggest strengths. Just four in 10 Americans have a positive view of Trump’s handling of the economy and trade, according to a poll from the Associated Press-Norc Center for Public Affairs Research.Meanwhile, Americans are increasingly concerned about the implementation of sweeping tariffs on foreign goods, according to a survey conducted recently for the Guardian.House Republican leaders have pre-empted any effort to reverse Trump’s controversial tariffs on Canada, as well as Mexico and China, by slipping language into their stopgap funding bill, which passed earlier this month. The provision effectively removed the House’s ability to undo the tariffs by terminating Trump’s declaration of a national emergency.The Senate majority leader, John Thune, has argued that tariffs are an important negotiating tool Trump can use to combat fentanyl traffic into the US. He said this week that the case for tariffs remains “the same”. He was expected to publicly urge Senate Republicans to oppose Kaine’s resolution in a floor speech on Tuesday, according to the Daily Caller. More

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      Farmers hope Trump has their back but many voice misgivings as tariffs loom

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      It has been a perilous few years for the Red Fire Farm in western Massachusetts.Since the pandemic, rising interest rates, labor and seed costs on the 200-acre produce farm have made life for owners Ryan and Sarah Voiland a spiraling challenge.Having spent millions of dollars building their business from scratch since 2001, last year the farm’s barn burned down, taking with it the store, a tractor, irrigation equipment and tools.This year, Ryan had hoped a $125,000 grant won through the Rural Energy for America Program to build a solar canopy system, and a $40,000 allowance to distribute fall leaf litter from nearby towns across their fields, would help offset the farm’s ever-increasing refrigeration and fertilizing costs.But in January, the Trump administration froze billions of government funding dollars from Biden-era projects – including more than $2bn for 30,000 ranchers and farms such as Red Fire Farm.“When something is signed and contracted it’s just totally unfair for [the government] to rescind something that farmers are already making investments in,” he said.“It’s leaving farmers on the hook for thousands of dollars.”That prompted Voiland to join an Earthjustice lawsuit against the US Department of Agriculture that’s seeking a court order against the administration’s refusal to disburse the funding.American farmers are not unused to the impulses of Donald Trump, who in his first presidency fueled a trade war with China that ended up adversely affecting exports of US pork and soybeans. But back then, many farmers stayed afloat in large part due to a $28bn handout from the federal government.Today, there’s no sign of checks in the post for farmers.Trump has suggested farmers are in for “a little bit of an adjustment period” with more reciprocal tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada and European countries set to come into force on Tuesday.This comes at a time when farming, whether at the local producer or commodity crop level, faces major challenges.Plummeting demand from China, rising land prices and Trump’s threats to cut visas for foreign farm workers have put one of the world’s most productive agricultural economies in a major spin. John Deere, the machinery manufacturer, has been shedding thousands of jobs across the midwest due to falling demand fueled by farmers’ economic struggles. Imports of agriculture products, which can undercut US farmers, have never been as high.And while ranchers and farmers make up a small part of the wider US economy, its struggles could have major implications: 10% of all US workers are employed in or adjacent to agriculture.Across the country, farming groups are beginning to voice concerns for Trump’s tough tariff approach.“Trade policies must come with real, tangible protections for the farmers directly affected,” said the National Farmers Union president, Rob Larew.“We’ve heard there’s a strategy in place – now we need to see it. Promises alone won’t pay the bills or keep farms afloat.”With around 20% of all US agricultural production going overseas, some agronomists fear the ructions caused by the Trump administration could put pay to relations that took decades to develop, and which in particular could ill-affect American corn and soybean farmers.“It’s been a very good relationship with Mexico. But if this tariffs situation gets out of control, I wouldn’t be surprised that within five years you hear of Mexico building a deep sea port [to facilitate imports from countries other than the US],” said Jim McCormick, the co-founder of Agmarket.net, a Missouri-based agricultural marketing and consulting firm.“The best thing you can do is build a trade relationship that works well for both countries. It works well for Mexico – they get a cheap supply of food – and it works well for the American producer – we overproduce in the United States. That is the reality – we are built to feed the world.”In recent years, China, the world’s largest importer of soybeans which until recently was largely sourced from American farmers, has developed a new trade relationship with Brazil as a direct result of the first Trump administration’s trade war.Brazil has rapidly grown its soybean crop to become the world’s largest producer today, with 40% of the global share, and is the world’s third-largest producer of corn. Its mild climate allows two harvests per year and it has cleared thousands of square miles of savannah and forest for crop farming.In November, a huge port opened in Chancay, Peru, which was paid for by China in a move meant to give Beijing easier access to South American products.“My fear is that it’s going to be a lot tougher negotiating with these countries than what people think,” said McCormick. “The first go around [in 2017] we were just battling China. Now, we’re pretty much battling the world. It could get very volatile.”Still, farmers have been widely supportive of the president. In the country’s 444 agriculture-dependent counties, Trump won 77.7% of the vote in last November’s presidential election, up from 73% in 2016 and 76% in 2020.Commodity crop growers are this month set for some relief with $10bn in assistance being released through a program signed into law during the Biden administration.“I think farmers are not exactly thrilled at the economic situation we’re in right now, but they still believe he’s got their back,” said McCormick, adding that whether or not tariffs go into place on 2 April will shape wider sentiment towards the White House. “They’re going to wait and see.”On the Red Fire Farm, which employs around 75 people during the summer season on its food subscription, U-pick and wholesale operations, feelings of hope and trepidation mingle as the Voilands gear up for the 2025 growing season. Construction of a new barn is in the works, although its financial implications are worrying, says Ryan.Another point of concern is the Trump administration’s canceling of $1bn worth of local food purchase funding for food banks and schools, which hits producers such as Voiland and in-need consumers alike.But pressure through calls and emails has helped a small conservation grant won by the Voilands and other farmers previously frozen in January be revived last month.“I wanted to do everything possible to fight back and resist it,” said Voiland, “both for the sake of my farm and for the general good of agriculture”. More

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      Large majority of Europeans support retaliatory tariffs against US, poll finds

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      A large majority of western Europeans support retaliatory tariffs against the US, a survey has shown, if Donald Trump introduces sweeping import duties for major trading partners as expected this week.The US president appears likely to unleash a range of tariffs, varying from country to country, on Wednesday, which he has called Liberation Day. He also said last week that a 25% levy on cars shipped to the US would come into force the next day.Many European firms are likely to be hit hard. Some, including Germany’s car manufacturers and France’s luxury goods firms and wine, champagne and spirits makers, rely on exports to the US for up to 20% of their income.The EU has already pledged a “timely, robust and calibrated” response to Washington’s plans, which experts predict are likely to depress output, drive up prices and fuel a trade war. Global markets and the dollar fell on Monday after Trump crushed hopes that what he calls “reciprocal tariffs” – arguing that trading partners are cheating the US – would only target countries with the largest trade imbalances.A YouGov survey carried out in Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK found that if the US tariffs went ahead, large majorities – ranging from 79% of respondents in Denmark to 56% in Italy – favoured retaliatory levies on US imports.In both Germany, where carmakers such as Porsche, BMW and Mercedes face a significant blow to their profits, and France, where US sales of wines and spirits are worth nearly €4bn (£3.4bn) a year, 68% of respondents backed retaliation.Respondents in all seven countries favoured a tit-for-tat response despite the damage they expected US tariffs to do to their national economies, with 75% of Germans saying they expected “a lot” or “a fair amount” of impact.That assessment was shared by 71% of respondents in Spain, 70% in France and Italy, 62% in Sweden, 60% in the UK and half of Danes questioned in the survey, which was carried out in the second and third weeks of March.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionOf the six EU countries polled, majorities of between 60% in Denmark and 76% in Spain thought US tariffs would have a significant impact on the bloc’s wider economy. That was the sentiment of 74% of German and 68% of French respondents.Trump, who was elected partly on a promise to restore US industry, has repeatedly complained that the EU has been “very unfair to us” when it comes to trade. He also said in February that the 27-nation bloc had been “formed to screw the United States”.Pluralities or majorities in all six EU countries surveyed, ranging from 67% in Denmark and 53% in Germany to 41% in France and 40% in Italy, said they did not agree with him, compared with only 7% to 18% who thought he was correct. More

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      Trump prepares to unveil reciprocal tariffs as markets brace amid trade war fears

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      As Donald Trump prepared to unveil a swathe of reciprocal tariffs, global markets braced and some Republican senators voiced their opposition to a strategy that critics warn risks a global trade war, provoking retaliation by major trading partners such as China, Canada and the European Union.The US president said on Monday he would be “very kind” to trading partners when he unveils further tariffs this week, potentially as early as Tuesday night.The Republican billionaire insists that reciprocal action is needed because the world’s biggest economy has been “ripped off by every country in the world”, promising “Liberation Day” for the US.He could also unveil more sector-specific levies.Asked for details, he told reporters on Monday: “You’re going to see in two days, which is maybe tomorrow night or probably Wednesday.”But he added: “We’re going to be very nice, relatively speaking, we’re going to be very kind.”Some Republican senators spoke out against Trump’s tariffs on Canada and are considering signing on their support for a resolution blocking them, CNN reported. Senator Susan Collins warned that tariffs on Canada would be particularly harmful to Maine and that she intended to vote for a resolution aimed at blocking tariffs against Canadian goods.Republican Senator Thom Tillis also said he was considering backing the resolution, adding: “We need to fight battles with our foes first and then try to figure out any inequalities with our friends second.”Already, China, South Korea and Japan agreed on Sunday to strengthen free trade between themselves, ahead of Trump’s expected tariff announcement.But Trump said on Monday he was not worried that his action would push allies toward Beijing, adding that a deal on TikTok could also be tied to China tariffs.White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the goal on Wednesday would be to announce “country-based tariffs”, although Trump remained committed to imposing separate sector-specific charges.The uncertainty has jolted markets, with key European and Asian indexes closing lower, although the Dow and broad-based S&P 500 eked out gains.Market nervousness intensified after Trump said on Sunday his tariffs would include “all countries”.The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that advisers have considered imposing global tariffs of up to 20%, to hit almost all US trading partners. Trump has remained vague, saying his tariffs would be “far more generous” than ones already levied against US products.Trump’s fixation on tariffs is fanning US recession fears. Goldman Sachs analysts raised their 12-month recession probability from 20% to 35%.This reflects a “lower growth forecast, falling confidence and statements from White House officials indicating willingness to tolerate economic pain”. Goldman Sachs also lifted its forecast for underlying inflation at the end of 2025.China and Canada have imposed counter-tariffs on US goods, while the EU unveiled its own measures to start mid-April. Other countermeasures could come after Wednesday.For now, the IMF chief, Kristalina Georgieva, said at a Reuters event on Monday that US tariffs were causing anxiety, although their global economic impact should not be dramatic.Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics said to “expect the unexpected”, anticipating that Trump would “take aim at some of the largest offenders”.Besides reciprocal country tariffs, Trump could unveil additional sector-specific levies on the likes of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. He earlier announced car tariffs to take effect on Thursday.Economists have expected the upcoming salvo could target the 15% of partners that have persistent trade imbalances with the US, a group that the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has dubbed a “Dirty 15”.The US has some of its biggest goods deficits with China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada and India.US trade partners are rushing to minimise their exposure, with reports suggesting India may lower some duties.The European Central Bank president, Christine Lagarde, said on Monday that Europe should move towards economic independence, telling France Inter radio that Europe faces an “existential moment”.Separately, the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, spoke with Trump on “productive negotiations” towards a UK-US trade deal, while the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said the EU would respond firmly to Trump but was open to compromise.It was “entirely possible” for fresh tariffs to be swiftly reduced or put on hold, said Greta Peisch, a partner at law firm Wiley Rein.In February, Washington paused steep levies on Mexican and Canadian imports for a month as the North American neighbours pursued negotiations.With Agence France-Presse More

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      Will Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ be the start of a trade war – or another climbdown?

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      Donald Trump won back the White House with a promise to transform the US economy. Millions of Americans, struggling with higher prices and bigger bills, elected a president who pledged to revive his country’s industrial heartlands – and leave the rest of the world to pick up the bill.On Wednesday – a day dubbed Liberation Day by the president and his aides – Trump has vowed to pull the trigger and impose an historic barrage of tariffs on goods from overseas he claims will fund an extraordinary revival.Ten weeks after obtaining power, Trump has said he will raise tariffs on all products from countries that charge tariffs on US exports; hit goods from Canada and Mexico with sweeping duties; introduce steep tariffs on foreign cars, computer chips and drugs; and target countries importing oil from Venezuela with duties on their US exports.This is “the big one”, according to the president. Business leaders and economists are certainly worried about the scale of his trade strategy, which the Tax Foundation already estimates could knock US gross domestic product (GDP) by roughly 0.7% and cost about 500,000 US jobs.“The escalating tariffs are a body blow to the global trading system,” said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University, and a former official at the International Monetary Fund.Wherever you stand, a move on this scale would constitute a radical shake-up – and set the stage for a fundamental overhaul of the US economy. And yet, even as he ramped up the rhetoric, Trump has appeared to tread carefully.“I will immediately begin the overhaul of our trade system to protect American workers and families,” the president declared at his inauguration in January. “Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens.”While the threats were immediate, the action was not.Take Canada and Mexico. The administration has adopted a strikingly hardline stance against the US’s largest and nearest trading partners, but its imposition of blanket tariffs has been hit by a dizzying array of shifting deadlines, delays and reversals.An initial pledge to impose tariffs from “day one” shifted, without explanation, to February. When February rolled around, a last-ditch deal kicked the can to March. When the tariffs were finally imposed, it was a little over 24 hours before carmakers were granted a temporary exemption, and 48 hours before all goods covered by an existing trade deal between the US, Mexico and Canada were spared for another month.All the while, Trump and his most senior officials have slowly, but surely, accepted the risks they are raising in pursuit of the rewards they have vowed to obtain.“Tariffs don’t cause inflation,” the president claimed in January. OK, prices “could go up somewhat short term”, he conceded in February. “There’ll be a little disturbance,” he added in March, stressing that he was alright with that.The US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, acknowledged earlier this month that there may well be a “one-time price adjustment” as a result of Trump’s tariffs. “Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream,” he argued.While Trump predicts that slapping high US tariffs on foreign goods will prompt an influx of international companies to make products inside the US, rather than out, companies and investors worldwide are already struggling to keep up with his administration’s erratic trade policymaking.So far, since his return to office, Trump has hiked tariffs on Chinese exports to the US and raised tariffs on foreign steel and aluminium to 25%.The average US tariff rate has already shot up from 2.5% to 8.4% this year, the highest level since 1946, according to the Tax Foundation.Alex Durante, its senior economist, said the country is “inching towards” the kind of tariffs last seen since the 1930s, when the Smoot-Hawley bill, among the most decried pieces of legislation in US history, introduced tariffs on thousands of goods.“With each tariff action we’re rapidly approaching a universal tariff that would be damaging to the economy,” said Durante. “Behind the scenes, I think there is probably some concern, even among some of [Trump’s] staff, that they’re rapidly approaching the point of no return.”As his administration grappled with the fallout from the inadvertent inclusion of a journalist in a group chat about secret military plans last week, the president summoned reporters to the Oval Office to pre-announce tariffs on foreign cars. “This is very exciting,” he told them.The excitement is far from universal. Prasad, at Cornell, said: “We are shifting to a world where a commonly accepted set of rules is being displaced by unilateral actions that ostensibly promote a fair trading system, but will instead create volatility and uncertainty, inhibiting the free flow of goods and financial capital across national borders.”The car tariffs would be “a hurricane-like headwind to foreign (and many US) automakers”, said Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, who suggested they would push up prices by as much as $10,000 in the US. “We continue to believe this is some form of negotiation and these tariffs could change by the week,” he added, “although this initial 25% tariff on autos from outside the US is almost an untenable head-scratching number for the US consumer”.Such action is also widely expected to prompt retaliation – with US exporters in the firing line.While a spokesperson for the European Commission stressed it was too early to detail the European Union’s response to actions “still not implemented” by the US, they added: “I can assure you that it will be timely, that it will be robust, that it will be well calibrated and that it will achieve the intended impact.”Trump is watching closely. As countries and markets hit by new US tariffs consider how to hit back, the president publicly warned the EU and Canada that he would hit them with “far larger” duties if they worked together on their response.Some doubt whether the federal government has enough capacity to execute the trade onslaught which Trump has said is coming. “I simply just don’t think that [the US Trade Representative] right now has enough staff to even figure out how to implement some of these tariffs,” said Durante.But after myriad false starts and much fluctuation, the lingering question – despite all the shots, warnings and vows – is not how far Trump can take his trade wars, but how far he will.The president is, at heart, a salesman. In business, he sold real estate – with mixed success. In television, and then politics, he sold stories – with extreme success.Millions of Americans bought the image he constructed on The Apprentice of himself as a phenomenally successful entrepreneur. Millions more bought his promise on the campaign trail to share this phenomenal success with the rest of the nation.Trump is no longer selling a promise, but his strategy to deliver it. He won the White House twice by using stories, sometimes unbound by truth, to bend perceptions, break norms and build support. But rhetoric – however bold, and brash – can’t change reality.The president says unleashing a wave of tariffs, and triggering an abrupt surge in costs in the US and across the world, would cause just a “little disturbance”.Should Wednesday’s action prove as drastic as billed, businesses and consumers may struggle to reconcile this description with what they encounter.Liberation Day is the moniker coined by this administration. Liability Day might prove more apt. More

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      Ministers brace for more Trump tariffs as UK races to agree US trade deal

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      Ministers believe Britain will be hit by more tariffs when Donald Trump unveils his latest round of trade barriers on Wednesday as part of what the US president is calling “liberation day”.On Sunday night, Keir Starmer spoke with Trump in what Downing Street described as part of “productive negotiations” towards a deal. A No 10 spokesperson said both men had agreed talks between the two sides would “continue at pace this week”, adding: “They agreed to stay in touch in the coming days.”Senior members of the government have been engaged in intense negotiations over recent weeks as they race to agree a trade deal with the US, which could avoid the UK being included in the package of measures.The stakes are high for the British government – forecasters have said a 20 percentage point increase on tariffs on UK goods and services would cut the size of the British economy by 1% and force the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, into tax rises this autumn.Officials now fear, however, they will not have agreed the deal in time, sources have told the Guardian, and are resigned to being hit by whatever Trump announces on 2 April.But ministers will continue negotiating after that date, hoping they can avoid a damaging hit to UK economic growth by agreeing a deal to reduce tariffs once they have already been promised.One Whitehall official told the Guardian: “We have been working hard behind the scenes for a while on an economic deal, and that work continues. But we don’t see Wednesday as a hard and fast deadline.”Another said: “If we don’t get a deal by Wednesday it won’t be the end of the world. The main thing is to make sure we get enough from the US to make a deal worth signing.”Trump has said he will unveil what he says are “reciprocal” tariffs on trading partners around the world on Wednesday. Last week, the US president announced he would introduce a 25% tariff on car imports to the US on 2 April, which would hit British carmakers such as Bentley and Aston Martin.But just days ahead of the larger announcement, even White House officials say they have little sense of which tariffs the president intends to levy, on which countries and by how much.British negotiators, led by the business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, have been talking to their US counterparts for weeks to agree a technology-focused trade deal, which they hope would also exempt the UK from the heaviest of Trump’s tariffs. Downing Street officials are closely involved in the talks, including the prime minister’s head of international economic affairs, Michael Ellam, and his business adviser Varun Chandra.In an indication of how far the British government is willing to go to sign the deal, ministers have offered to drop the UK digital services tax (DST). The DST is a levy on the revenues of the world’s largest technology companies – almost all of which are US-based – which is forecast to raise £1.1bn by the end of the decade.British officials are increasingly gloomy, however, about the prospect of getting the deal done in the next three days, albeit while still hoping it could come together at the last minute.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“This is an unpredictable situation and an unpredictable administration,” said one. “We’re having to plan for every scenario.”If the Trump administration does include the UK in its announcement on Wednesday, Britain is unlikely to reciprocate with its own tariffs, according to people familiar with the government’s thinking. Doing so would imperil the chances of signing a deal in the future, they added.One said: “Everything is on the table. But unlike other trading partners such as the EU, our approach will be to keep a cool head and keep talking. We know British industry does not want a trade war.”However, this approach has come in for criticism in recent days. Kim Darroch, the former British ambassador to the US, told the Observer on Sunday: “[UK ministers] need to be wary of giving Trump wins; tariffs are his all-purpose forcing mechanism and he’ll use them again and again if he sees them working.”Others believe ministers have little choice but to keep negotiating. Crawford Faulkner, who stepped down in January as the UK’s lead trade negotiator, said on Sunday Britain should be “prepared to negotiate” on the DST and other issues.He told Times Radio: “There is no reason why the United Kingdom could not, across the board, have liberalisation in goods, and as much of services as is feasible, with the United States.” More

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      Trump news at a glance: judge orders now-infamous Signal chat be retained as tariff fallout deepens

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      A federal judge on Thursday ordered the Trump administration to preserve all Signal messages exchanged in the now-infamous group chat in which officials organised a high-level military operation in Yemen that inadvertently included a journalist.The temporary restraining order compels defense secretary Pete Hegseth, secretary of state Marco Rubio, treasury secretary Scott Bessent, CIA director John Ratcliffe and the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, to save their texts from 11 to 15 March.Judge orders retention of all Signal group textsJames Boasberg, the chief US district judge in Washington, ordered all messages in the group chat be preserved, adding that his decision was aimed at ensuring no messages were lost and not because he decided the Trump administration had done anything wrong.Boasberg is set to decide at a later stage whether the disappearing message function of the Signal chat violated federal records retention laws.Read the full storyEnd of an era for Canada-US ties, says Carney, as allies decry Trump’s car tariffsCanada’s prime minister has said the era of deep ties with the US “is over”, as governments from Tokyo to Berlin to Paris sharply criticized Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on car imports, with some threatening retaliatory action.Mark Carney warned Canadians that Trump had permanently altered relations and that, regardless of any future trade deals, there would be “no turning back”.Read the full storyHegseth’s Arabic tattoo stirs controversyThe US secretary of defense Pete Hegseth has a tattoo that appears to read “infidel” or “non-believer” in Arabic, according to photos on his social media account.In photos posted on Tuesday on X, the former Fox News host had what appears to be a tattoo that says “kafir”, an Arabic term used within Islam to describe an unbeliever. Hegseth appears to have also had the tattoo in another Instagram photo posted in July 2024. A pro-Palestinian activist said Hegseth having the tattoo was a “clear symbol of Islamophobia”.Read the full storyStefanik’s UN bid axed to protect House majorityUS House representative Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be the US ambassador to the United Nations was pulled by Donald Trump on Thursday, a stunning turnaround for his cabinet pick after her confirmation had been stalled over concerns about Republicans’ tight margins in the House.Read the full storyRubio boasts of 300 cancelled visasThe US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, boasted on Thursday that he has cancelled more than 300 visas for people he labelled “lunatics” in connection with pro-Palestinian university campus protests.The US state department is undertaking a widespread visa-review process, revoking hundreds of visas and placing hundreds more under scrutiny, targeting mostly foreign nationals engaged in pro-Palestine activism, according to official statements.During a visit to Guyana, Rubio said: “We do it every day, every time I find one of these lunatics.”Read the full storyTrump lawyers defend sending student to detention centreLawyers for the US government defended their transferring of doctoral student Rumeysa Ozturk from Massachusetts to immigration detention in Louisiana because they did so before a court ordered she not be removed from without prior notice.Ozturk, a 30-year-old student from Tufts University, was sent to detention in the south on Wednesday after being snatched off the street by masked Ice agents outside her home on Tuesday.Read the full storyFossil fuel firms can email Trump to skip pollution rulesDonald Trump’s administration has offered fossil fuel companies an extraordinary opportunity to evade air pollution rules by simply emailing the US president to ask him to exempt them.Read the full storyThe Vances head to Greenland The vice-president, JD Vance, and his wife, Usha Vance, are due to touch down in Greenland on Friday in a drastically scaled down trip to the Arctic island after the original plans for the unsolicited visit prompted an international diplomatic row.The visit to Pituffik, a remote ice-locked US military base in northwestern Greenland, will be closely watched by leaders in Nuuk and Copenhagen, both of whom have aired their opposition to the contentious trip amid ongoing threats by Donald Trump to acquire Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark.Read the full story.What else happened today:

      Airline travel between Canada and the US is “collapsing” over Trump tariffs, with flight bookings between the two countries down by over 70%.

      Robert F Kennedy Jr said the nation’s health agencies will cut 10,000 jobs from their 82,000-person workforce – an enormous reduction the US health secretary characterized as streamlining federal bureaucracy amid internal resistance to the administration’s agenda.
      Catching up? Here’s what happened on 26 March 2025. More