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      The US embrace of Russia is an existential threat to the EU. Germany must step up to save it | Catherine De Vries

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      In February 1945, three world leaders – Winston Churchill, Franklin D Roosevelt and Josef Stalin – met in Crimea for the Yalta conference, to discuss the new world order they would implement after the soon-to-end second world war.Smaller nations were given no say in deciding their fate. The Soviet sphere of influence would infest eastern Europe for decades and US foreign policy dominated the second half of the 20th century. Churchill resisted the end of the UK’s global empire and independence for Britain’s colonies came piecemeal; they were let go with bitterness.Eighty years on, the logic present at Yalta – that large states can impose their will on smaller states – is back. Might is once again right. But history is repeating itself with a striking difference – for this time, there is no European leader at the table. Russian and US delegations have sat down to discuss Ukraine’s future without Ukraine or the EU’s input. Eighty years down the line, Europe is no longer seen as relevant by the great powers.The urgency of Europe’s shifting geopolitical landscape was laid bare last Sunday in London, where European leaders gathered with their counterparts from the UK, Canada, Turkey, the EU and Nato for a high-level defence summit. That meeting came as a result of the very public collapse of White House talks between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump, and Trump’s suspension of military aid to Ukraine.Even if a reported reconciliation between Washington and Kyiv materialises, European officials are still reeling from the rapidity of the transatlantic rupture so early in Trump’s second term. Trump’s defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, last month warned Europe it could no longer rely on US security guarantees. JD Vance, the US vice-president, went further at the Munich Security Conference, calling Europe – not Russia or China – the primary US threat.Pax Americana – the postwar period of relative peace in the western hemisphere, with the US as the dominant economic, cultural and military world power – is over. Europe will quickly have to adapt to the new reality, with the loss of its primary strategic and military partner. What part now will the EU’s largest member state, Germany, play?Despite large gains by the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which doubled its support in the federal election on 23 February, Germany will be led by Friedrich Merz, head of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The chancellor-in-waiting lost no time in declaring that Europe, faced with an increasingly adversarial US, must take its fate into its own hands.“It is my absolute priority to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can actually become independent from the US step by step,” Merz said, hours after his election victory. Stark words from a politician who as recently as a few months ago was a bona fide Atlanticist.Merz wants to forge greater unity in Europe and establish an independent European defence capability. It remains to be seen how he will go about achieving this, but he clearly aims to put Germany back into the European driving seat.German leadership has been lacking in recent years. While Paris and Warsaw took increasingly assertive positions on European security, Berlin has remained cautious. After the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, spoke of a Zeitenwende – a turning point in German policy to reflect the new realities of the world. But, in the end, little but hot air was produced.Since the end of the second world war, Germany has invested relatively little in military capacity. Under the Nato umbrella, and with the close partnership with the US, this was not seen as a problem. But the world has fundamentally shifted, and Merz sees that Germany, finally, must change, too.However, an emboldened new Germany, at the head of the EU, faces a harsh world and an even harsher set of realities. The country will not only have to increase its military capacity, bring about bloc-wide military cooperation and perhaps even station troops in Ukraine, but it will also have to pay for all of this.This will require overhauling Germany’s strict ceiling on public borrowing, the so-called Schuldenbremse (debt brake) enshrined in the constitution. Merz has now begun that process; on Tuesday, his party struck agreement with its prospective coalition partners, the SPD, on the creation of a special €500bn (£390bn) fund to boost defence and infrastructure spending that would be exempt from the debt constraint. If approved by the German parliament, this would amount to a dramatic and some critics warn risky loosening of the budgetary straitjacket.Merz will also have to rally the EU (though Trump’s harrying of Europe and Zelenskyy is already pushing European leaders toward his vision), as well as face down Trump-friendly far-right parties, many of them in ascendence across the bloc.At a recent meeting in Madrid of the rightwing radical bloc of the European parliament, the Patriots for Europe, Geert Wilders, leader of the far-right PVV in the Netherlands, praised Trump as a “brother in arms”. Slovakia’s prime minister, Robert Fico, expressed his support for Trump’s pro-Russian policy at the rightwing Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Maryland last month. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel has said that “Trump is implementing the policies that the AfD has been demanding for years”.These rightist politicians seem willing to risk Europe’s security and prosperity for political gain. The US turn toward Russia and away from democracy will be an existential test for the European project and Europe’s commitment to law and democracy. The art of European cooperation has long been to achieve the possible in unforeseen circumstances. Germany, under chancellor-elect Merz, has a steep learning curve ahead. But the task of stepping up to save Ukraine – and Europe – falls to Berlin.

      Catherine De Vries is professor of political science at Bocconi University in Milan More

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      Starmer is at his best right now – but he must accept there is no going back with Trump’s US | Martin Kettle

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      Keir Starmer, it turns out, is at his best in a crisis. He has faced two since he became prime minister last year, one domestic, the other international. The first came with the riots that followed the Southport killings, when Starmer’s response was impressive and effective. The second is Donald Trump’s attempt to stitch up Ukraine, where Starmer has been surefooted in trying to hold the line against a sellout to Russia. In both cases, he has looked like the right person in the right place at the right time.There was another example of this deftness on Wednesday in the Commons, when Starmer went out of his way to mark the anniversaries of the deaths of UK service personnel in 2007 and 2012. A total of 642 died in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars alongside their US allies. They would not be forgotten, he said. The name of JD Vance was not mentioned. Nor was the US vice-president’s contemptuous “some random country” insult this week. But Starmer’s reprimand was unerring.It is far too soon to say whether Starmer’s response to Trump’s embrace of Russia and to the US administration’s denunciations of Europe will be effective in the long run. What can be said is that, in public and private, the prime minister has so far led with tact and clarity and has scored one or two apparent successes against the run of play. Nevertheless, these are very early days. Trump boasted to Congress on Tuesday night that he was “just getting started”.Starmer’s ability in a crisis is an unexpected contrast with his leadership in the ordinary business of politics. Since July 2024, Starmer’s calm, methodical, long-game approach has succeeded only in squandering much of Labour’s election-winning goodwill, and in making him seem out of his political depth. But his deployment of these same unflashy tactics at moments of acute crisis, as in the case of Ukraine, could be gold dust. It has at least given the prime minister’s ratings a boost. There are echoes here of the rallying around Boris Johnson at the start of Covid. But remember where that ended up.It is useful to note that this low-key approach marks a notable break. Throughout the postwar period, British leaders faced with international crisis modelled themselves on Winston Churchill in 1940. Margaret Thatcher saw herself this way during the Falklands war. Tony Blair echoed it after 9/11 and over Iraq. Johnson pretended he was Churchill when Russia invaded Ukraine. Starmer’s calm approach evokes Clement Attlee more than Churchill. In every way he is unTrump.Yet Starmer has not got much to be calm about. The world of 2024 no longer exists. Trump has triggered a crisis in the North Atlantic alliance. At stake are two epochal things. First, whether Russia’s main western border will henceforward be with Ukraine, with Poland or with Germany. Second, whether the US accepts any role in ensuring future European stability. These are not small questions.There are three levels on which Starmer can try to deal with Trump, both now and for the coming four years. All of them tacitly and sometimes openly recognise the vast seriousness of the moment. All of them are predicated on the undesirability of what Trump is doing and the need to create alternatives. All of them, however, also rest on a determination not to make an enemy of the US.The first is to firefight the immediate problems that Trump creates. This involves constantly engaging with the US administration by whatever means are available to prevent or mitigate crises. It means building up defence spending. It means working with allies and so-called coalitions of the willing. It means using any leverage to earn a hearing. Essentially, it is an attempt to manoeuvre Trump to follow a different or less extreme course, while avoiding confrontation or denunciation. But it is all done under the pretence that nothing fundamental has changed.View image in fullscreenThis is essentially the strategy that Starmer is now pursuing on Ukraine. It is why he keeps talking to Trump – three times in the past week, perhaps contributing to Trump’s relatively polite mention of Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the speech to Congress. It is why he deploys King Charles’s soft power. It is why, perhaps, he will soon return to Washington with Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron in an overwhelmingly important effort to restore military aid and intelligence support to Ukraine.The second approach is to decide to suck it all up for four years, in the hope that things will then get easier. This means accepting the likelihood, though never saying so publicly, that Trump is always going to be destructive and mean-spirited. At the same time, it means working to keep US links – especially military and intelligence links – strong enough to be revived more effectively after 2028, when Trump is due to step down.For Starmer, this could mean a lot of firefighting over the next four years, without any certainty of a post-Trump dividend or British public approval. Such fires could break out on any number of issues, including not just Ukraine but also the Middle East, bilateral trade, Nato, US-EU relations and, judging by this week’s speech, Canada, Greenland and the Panama canal. Much will depend on Friedrich Merz and on Macron’s 2027 successor, too. Starmer and his national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, are also likely to have an intense under-the-radar interest in the candidates vying to succeed Trump.Which leaves the third strategy. This is to accept that Trump’s approach is now the US’s new normal and that there will be no comforting return to past arrangements. Whoever comes after Trump may be friendlier, more rational and less rude. Either way, US exceptionalism, isolationism and disengagement from Europe are likely to be here to stay. So too are the immensely tough consequences for countries like Britain, which can no longer rely on a US security and intelligence shield against Russia or any other hostile states. Rearmament is back. This will require something close to a war economy, and it cannot be created overnight.At present, Starmer has one foot in the first approach and another in the second. But it is the third approach that will loom largest as an option as the next four years unfold. None of these is a soft option, and all of them overlap. Starmer is right, for example, to oppose false binary choices between Europe and the US.Nevertheless, if Trump’s speech to Congress is to be taken seriously, this is a president who has changed sides in the battle of values between democracy and authoritarianism. Starmer may feel he has to tell Europe that Trump will still “have our backs”. But Trump could just as soon stab Europe in the back too. After all, that’s exactly what he just did.

      Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist More

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      Trump administration briefing: president threatens Hamas, leaves Ukraine in the dark and flip flops on tariffs

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      Donald Trump posted a fresh ultimatum to Hamas, telling the group to “release all of the Hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you”.“‘Shalom Hamas’ means Hello and Goodbye,” he wrote in a social media post on Wednesday, in an apparent reference to the beginning of direct talks with the group.The post came just hours after the White House confirmed that the US had entered direct negotiations with Hamas, potentially to bypass Israel in securing the release of the remaining US hostages.Trump tells Hamas ‘release all of the hostages now’Trump posted a fresh ultimatum to Hamas and reinforced his support for Israel on Truth Social on Wednesday. He also referred to a recent decision to provide billions more in support for Israeli arms sales.“I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say,” Trump wrote.“This is your last warning! For the leadership, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance,” he wrote. “Make a SMART decision. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW, OR THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY LATER!”Read the full storyUS stops sharing intelligence on Russia with UkraineThe US has stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine after Donald Trump’s suspension of military aid on Monday, in another serious blow to Kyiv in the war with Russia. White House officials indicated that both bans could be lifted if progress is made on peace talks.Ukrainian officials suggested the US would no longer provide information about targets inside Russia, hindering Ukraine’s ability to carry out effective long-range drone strikes.Read the full storyTrump exempts carmakers from Canada-Mexico tariffsDonald Trump has temporarily spared carmakers from sweeping US tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, one day after an economic strike on the US’s two biggest trading partners sparked warnings of widespread price increases and disruption. The decision came after companies appealed to the White House.A separate call between Trump and Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, did not lead to any larger breakthrough, however. The tariffs were predicted to raise US prices almost immediately, raising questions about Trump’s promises to “make America affordable again”.Read the full storyAgriculture workers to get jobs backThe US Department of Agriculture has been ordered to temporarily reinstate nearly 6,000 employees who were fired as part of Donald Trump’s efforts to downsize the federal workforce. The probationary employees are to be reinstated for a period of 45 days while a federal board continues to investigate the firings.Read the full storyWhite House rejig of Biden internet plan may benefit MuskThe Trump administration is preparing to overhaul a $42.5bn Biden-era program designed to connect tens of millions of rural Americans to reliable and affordable high-speed internet, in a move that is expected to benefit billionaire Elon Musk.Read the full storyImmigration hearing backfires on RepublicansA congressional hearing designed to criticise sanctuary city policies unexpectedly shifted on Wednesday, as a planned attack by Republican lawmakers instead dissolved into a platform that amplified Democratic mayors’ arguments about immigration and urban safety.The House oversight committee sought to portray sanctuary cities – which protect undocumented migrants – as havens for criminal activity and foreign gangs. But instead of cornering the mayors, Republican lawmakers seemed to inadvertently provide them with a national megaphone to sell their approaches to immigration.Read the full storyGreenland hits back at Trump takeover commentsDonald Trump’s claim in his address to Congress that the US will acquire Greenland “one way or the other” was widely condemned in Nuuk as “disrespectful” and was said to present an “unacceptable view of humanity”.Read the full storyPentagon official condemned over tweet about historical lynching of Jewish man The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) has condemned a past social media post by Pentagon spokesperson Kingsley Wilson that disputed the innocence of Leo Frank, a Jewish businessman whom most historians agree was wrongfully convicted of killing a 13-year-old factory worker and lynched in 1915 during a wave of antisemitism in the US.Read the full storyHundreds of US diplomats decry dismantling of USAid in letter to RubioHundreds of diplomats at the state department and US Agency for International Development (USAid) have written to the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, protesting against the dismantling of USAid, saying it undermines US leadership and security and leaves power vacuums for China and Russia to fill.Read the full storyCanada goose fights off bald eagle in rare, symbolism-laden battle on iceFor the second time in weeks, a Canadian icon has emerged as the unlikely victor in an existential battle on the ice.Read the full storyWhat else happened today:

      Senate Democrats introduced resolutions condemning Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, and daring Republicans to object. A statement from the office of Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, said: “The senators’ resolutions are statements of fact and principle, backed by evidence and long-standing American foreign policy.”

      Trump’s veterans affairs chief has defended ‘extraordinarily difficult’ plans to cut 80,000 staff. Doug Collins said the cuts were necessary to make the agency more efficient – though they are likely to affect healthcare for veterans – as the largest federal employee union denounced the plan in a stinging rebuke.

      The administration is dropping an emergency abortion case in Idaho in one of the administration’s first moves on the issue. The justice department filed a motion to dismiss the Biden administration lawsuit in a reversal that could have national implications for urgent care. The lawsuit had argued that emergency-room doctors treating pregnant women had to provide terminations if needed to save their lives or to avoid serious health consequences in Idaho, which has one of the country’s strictest abortion bans.

      The US court of appeals for the District of Columbia sided with the administration on Wednesday, in a ruling that allows the immediate removal of Hampton Dellinger as head of the Office of Special Counsel to proceed while the court battle continues. Dellinger is likely to appeal to the US supreme court.

      “I want to believe that the United States will stand by us. But we have to be ready if that is not the case,” French president Emmanuel Macron said in a TV address on the eve of an EU defence summit in Brussels. In a sign of the gravity of the moment, Macron said France was open to discussing extending the protection offered by its nuclear arsenal to its European partners and said European forces could be deployed after a peace deal was agreed. More

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      Trump is turning the media into a mouthpiece of the regime | Lawrence Douglas

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      You know we’re in trouble when Fox News emerges as the great defender of freedom of the press. But such was the case when Jacqui Heinrich, a senior political correspondent at Fox, responded to the news that Trump’s White House would now handpick the reporters who get to cover the president in small settings, with the post: “This move does not give the power back to the people – it gives power to the White House.” Heinrich was specifically responding to press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s Orwellian claim that letting Donald Trump choose who would cover him was designed to restore power “back to the American people”.The fruits of the new policy were richly on display during the sickening scene that unfolded in the Oval Office last week. If the president and JD Vance’s disgraceful treatment of Volodymyr Zelenskyy wasn’t bad enough, there was the unprecedented role that the “press” played in the unseemly drama.Here I’m not simply referring to Brian Glenn’s pugnacious demand that the leader of a war-torn nation justify his sartorial decisions – less a question than a provocation that served as a prelude to the pile-on that followed. Trump appeared to wink at Glenn, a correspondent for Real America’s Voice, a far-right cable channel freshly included in the press pool, leading to speculation that Glenn’s question had been scripted in advance, a speculation that is both plausible – I mean, why not? – and irrelevant.For whether scripted or not, these are the kinds of questions we should expect when serious journalists are replaced with mouthpieces of the regime, puppets who perform the role of state propagandists in the guise of reportage. Glenn, who dates Majorie Taylor Greene and describes himself as “100% behind President Trump”, claims not to truck in far-right conspiracy theories – while insisting that January 6t was an antifa-instigated inside job and that a vast mechanism of fraud cost Trump the 2020 election.But before Glenn turned on the Ukrainian president, he had directed an earlier question to Trump: “Mr President, [do] you think ultimately your legacy will be the peacemaker and not the president that led this country into another war … ?” This puffball in the guise of a query gave Trump the opportunity to wax poetic: “I hope I’m going to be remembered as a peacemaker … I’m doing this to save lives more than anything else … Thank you, Brian, for that question. It was a nice question.”But we weren’t done with paeans to the great peacemaker. No sooner had Zelenskyy tersely assured Glenn that he would wear a suit once the war had ended, we were greeted with this question: “Keir Starmer … praised your courage and conviction to lead … What gave you the moral courage and conviction to step forward and lead?”In a properly functioning press corps, we might have expected that the question was directed to Zelenskyy, who, with exceptional fortitude and resolve, has led his countryin a war against a ruthless aggressor. But no. The question was directed to Trump, who responded: “Boy, I love this guy. Who are you with?” The answer was One America News, another network that operates to the far right of Fox, trafficking in conspiracy theories and committed to an unwavering support of Maga politics – and also a beneficiary of the White House’s commandeering of its own press pool.Once again, Trump grew almost wistful – “I like the question … it’s a very good question” – before blaming Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Hamas’s attack on Israel on Joe Biden. From there, as we witnessed, things grew more acrimonious, but lost in the belligerent and belittling treatment of Zelenskyy, particularly at the hands of Vance (“Have you said thank you once, this entire meeting?”) was the Pyongyang-esque quality of Trump’s hand-picked pool reporters using their questions not to challenge or examine, but to burnish and bolster the Great Leader with ever fluffier valentines of adoration.Meanwhile, the Associated Press remained barred from the historic meeting, because it continues to call a body of water that lies almost entirely outside of US jurisdiction by the name it has carried since the 16th century.

      Lawrence Douglas is a professor of law at Amherst College in Massachusetts More

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      C.I.A. Director Says U.S. Has Paused Intelligence Sharing With Ukraine

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      The C.I.A. director John Ratcliffe said on Wednesday that intelligence sharing with Ukraine had been paused alongside military aid to pressure its government to cooperate with the Trump administration’s plans to end the country’s war with Russia.Speaking on Fox Business, Mr. Ratcliffe applauded the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky’s statement on Tuesday praising President Trump and insisting that he supported peace with Russia. Mr. Ratcliffe said he thought intelligence sharing would resume.“President Zelensky put out a statement that said, ‘I am ready for peace and I want President Donald Trump’s leadership to bring about that peace,’” Mr. Ratcliffe said. “And so I think on the military front and the intelligence front, the pause that allowed that to happen, I think will go away, and I think we’ll work shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine as we have, to push back on the aggression that’s there.”On Tuesday, after Mr. Trump ordered a halt to military assistance, officials differed on whether the United States was continuing to share intelligence. One official said all intelligence that was not directly related to the protection of Ukrainian troops had been put on hold. Another official said that exception covered most intelligence sharing, and information still was flowing to Ukrainian forces.Mr. Ratcliffe said on Wednesday that Mr. Trump asked for a pause on intelligence sharing. And his comments suggest that the C.I.A. put at least some of its intelligence sharing with Ukraine on hold for a short time.Trump administration officials have said the pauses were a warning to the Ukrainians of the consequences if they did not cooperate with Mr. Trump’s peace plan. The details of those plans remain unclear. Mr. Trump has spoken approvingly of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, and his aides have endorsed elements of the country’s ideas for ending the war.But European countries are trying to develop their own plan that could win over both Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelensky. More

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      ‘Resist’ shirts and ‘a little disturbance’: key takeaways from Trump’s Congress speech

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      Donald Trump delivered a divisive, falsehood-laden speech to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, touting the successes of his first weeks back in office even as his tariff policies have rattled global markets and his criticism of Ukraine has stoked backlash among European allies.Addressing lawmakers for roughly an hour and a half in the longest such speech to a joint session, the president’s sweeping proclamations and biting attacks on Joe Biden prompted many Democrats to walk out of the House chamber as Republicans offered Trump one standing ovation after another.Here are the key takeaways from Trump’s address to Congress:1. Democrats voiced their discontent, with one House member even being removed from the chamberAs Trump kicked off his speech, he boasted about his electoral victory over Kamala Harris in November, describing his win as “a mandate like has not been seen in many decades”. Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 points last year, whereas Biden won it by 4.5 points in 2020. Trump’s electoral college vote count of 312 surpassed Biden’s vote count of 306 in 2020, but Barack Obama secured 332 electoral votes in 2012.Trump’s comment struck a nerve with with Representative Al Green, a Democrat of Texas, who began shouting at the president. “You don’t have a mandate,” waving his cane as he spoke.The Republican speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, then warned Green to “uphold and maintain decorum”. When Green continued shouting, Johnson instructed the sergeant at arms to remove him from the chamber.More Democrats voluntarily walked out of Trump’s speech as it went on, with some of them wearing black shirts bearing the word “resist”. Others displayed panels that read “false” and “save Medicaid” as Trump spoke.2. Trump doubled down on his divisive agenda and mocked BidenEchoing some of his most controversial rhetoric on the campaign trail, Trump warned about the dangers of “transgender ideology” and declared: “Our country will be woke no longer.”Trump repeatedly attacked his predecessor, labeling Joe Biden “the worst president in American history”. When Trump spotted Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat of Massachusetts, in the crowd, he again deployed his derogatory nickname of “Pocahontas” against her.Trump also applauded the work of Elon Musk and his so-called “department of government efficiency” (Doge), even as the billionaire’s efforts have sparked protests across the country amid layoffs of federal workers.“He’s working very hard. He didn’t need this. He didn’t need this,” Trump said of Musk. Pointing to Democrats in the audience, Trump added: “Everybody here, even this side, appreciates it. I believe they just don’t want to admit that.”3. Trump downplayed the risks of his tariffs despite warning signs in the marketsOne of the most noteworthy moments came when the president defended his trade agenda, just hours after Canada and China announced retaliatory measures after Trump moved forward with heightened tariffs against the two countries and Mexico.“Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again, and it’s happening, and it will happen rather quickly,” Trump said. “There’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that.”Trump’s escalating trade war has already contributed to wiping out all of the gains since election day for the S&P 500, and US retail giants have warned consumers to brace for price hikes because of the tariffs on Mexican imports.4. Trump called for an end to the war in Ukraine after his spat with ZelenskyyJust days after he and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, exchanged heated barbs in the Oval Office, Trump reiterated his desire to bring about an end to the war.Trump said he received a letter from Zelenskyy earlier on Tuesday, which seemed to align with the Ukrainian leader’s public statement that he and his team “stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts”.“I appreciate that he sent this letter,” Trump said. “Simultaneously we’ve had serious discussions with Russia and have received strong signals that they are ready for peace.”5. Trump repeated thoroughly debunked claimsTrump shared claims about the economy, social security and foreign assistance that have already been fact-checked and found to be false.The president claimed to have inherited “an economic catastrophe and an inflation nightmare” from the Biden administration. When Biden left office in January, inflation had fallen steeply from its peak in June 2022, and real gross domestic product consistently exceeded expectations in 2023 and 2024.Trump also repeated Musk’s incorrect claims that millions of dead Americans continue to receive social security benefits, pointing to the fact that at least one alleged recipient appeared to be 150 years old. But that data point reflects a well known flaw in the social security administration’s system in that it does not accurately track death records. A 2015 report found that only 13 people who had reached the age of 112 were receiving social security payments.6. Trump called for repealing a bipartisan bill signed by BidenRepublicans offered Trump repeated standing ovations throughout his address, even as the president called for repealing a bill that a number of them supported.“Your Chips Act is a horrible, horrible thing,” Trump said. “You should get rid of the Chip[s] Act, and whatever is leftover, Mr Speaker, you should use it to reduce debt or any other reason you want to,” Trump said.Signed into law by Biden in 2022, the Chips and Science Act has spurred investment in new semiconductor manufacturing sites in the US, and the bill was supported by 17 Senate Republicans and 24 House Republicans. And yet, Johnson and fellow Republicans still stood to applaud the suggestion. More

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      Out-of-date polls to wrong aid amounts: factchecking Trump’s Congress address

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      Donald Trump’s marathon address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday was littered with false claims, many of them falsehoods he has previously stated, been corrected on, and continued to repeat regardless. Here are some of the main statements he made that are just not true.The United States has not given Ukraine $350bn since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022The president repeated one of his new favorite lies: that the United States has given Ukraine $350bn since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, and Europe has given just $100bn.In fact, as Jakub Krupa and Pjotr Sauer reported for the Guardian last month, a running tally kept by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy shows that the US has spent about $120bn, while Europe – counted as the sum of the EU and individual member states – has allocated nearly $138bn in help for Ukraine. When the contributions from non EU countries, like the UK, are included, Europe’s share is even larger.Last week, on three consecutive days, three visiting world leaders corrected Trump on this false statement while sitting next to him in the Oval Office: the French president, Emmanuel Macron, the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.Trump did not stop ‘$45m for diversity, equity and inclusion scholarships in Burma’One in a litany of spending on foreign aid projects that Trump presented as ridiculous was “$45m for diversity, equity and inclusion scholarships in Burma”.There is no evidence that any such scholarships were planned. As the former representative Tom Malinowski pointed out, when this claim was first made by Elon Musk’s “department of government efficiency”, this appears to be a reference to a very different program, USAid’s Lincoln Scholarships, which helped educate young people struggling for freedom against Burma’s military dictatorship.It is not clear why Trump or Musk wrongly thought that these were “diversity, equity and inclusion scholarships, but, as Malinowski noted, the USAid project description did specify that the scholars were Burmese students “from diverse backgrounds”. That seems like an important policy, given that the military dictatorship in Burma has exploited ethnic and religious divisions to stay in power.Trump wrongly suggested that millions of dead people might be getting social security paymentsTrump drew attention to the fact that a Social Security Administration database includes millions of people who would be over 110 years old.But, as the Guardian has reported previously, when Musk claimed that “a cursory examination of social security,” showed that “we’ve got people in there that are 150 years old”, this is a deeply misleading way of talking about about real flaw in the social security system which could enable fraud, but apparently does not.That flaw was revealed in a 2015 report by the independent inspector general for the social security administration who discovered that the agency did not have death records for millions of people who had passed away. As of 2015, the inspector general found, there were “approximately 6.5 million numberholders age 112 or older who did not have death information” on their files.According to the report, social security payments were still being made to just 13 people who had reached the age of 112. At least one of those people was certainly still alive, and tweeting, at the time the report’s data was compiled in 2013.When the report was issued in 2015, the oldest person with a social security number and no death record on their file was born in 1869, but there was no record of payments still being made to that person, who would have been nearly 150.In fact, the social security administration already has in place a procedure to conduct interviews with anyone who reaches the age of 100, to verify that they are alive and their account is not being used by someone else to collect fraudulent payments.Trump incorrectly claimed that a middle school in Florida had ‘socially transitioned’ a 13-year-old childTrump said that January Littlejohn, a mother from Tallahassee, Florida, had discovered that her 13-year-old child’s middle school had secretly socially transitioned her from female to non-binary without notifying the parents.While Littlejohn made that case in a lawsuit, the suit was dismissed by a federal judge, and emails obtained by the Tallahassee Democrat newspaper showed that Littlejohn had written to the school in 2020 to notify a teacher that her child wanted to change pronouns.The emails showed that Littlejohn worked with a teacher to determine how best to navigate the situation, and thanked the teacher for their help.Trump cherrypicked an out-of-date poll to suggest that most Americans say the US is now going in the right direction“Now, for the first time in modern history,” Trump proclaimed early in his address, “more Americans believe that our country is headed in the right direction than the wrong direction”.In fact, Trump appeared to be citing a single poll, published three weeks ago by the Republican-leaning polling firm Rasmussen, which showed a 47%-46% edge for the right direction over the wrong direction. However, that same polling firm’s most recent survey, this week, shows that 45% of Americans now say the country is on the right track, and 50% say it is on the wrong track.As the polling expert Nate Silver noted last year, when it was revealed that Rasmussen was secretly showing its results to the Trump campaign, “this sort of explicit coordination with a campaign, coupled with ambiguity about funding sources, means that we’re going to label Rasmussen as an intrinsically partisan (R) pollster going forward”.Other polling firms, not associated with the Republican party, show that more Americans say that the country is on the wrong track now than on the right track.The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, in late February, shows that 49% of Americans say that the country is headed off on the wrong track, and just 34% say that the country is headed in the right direction.An Economist/YouGov poll last week found that 50% of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction, with just 38% saying it is on the right track.The most recent Morning Consult poll, published on Sunday, shows that the current spread is 56% wrong to 44% right. In the final week of the first Trump administration in 2021, Morning Consult found that 81% of Americans said the country was on the wrong track, with just 19% saying it was on the right track.Trump falsely claimed Musk’s cost-cutting had ‘found hundreds of billions of dollars of fraud’Since the start of its work, Musk’s “department of government efficiency” initiative has repeatedly claimed to have uncovered “fraud” only to have examples it cited turn out to be incorrect of invented. The most eye-catching example, that the government planned to spend $50m to send condoms to Gaza, turned out to be completely fictional.As the New York Times reported on Monday, receipts posted online by Musk’s “department of government efficiency” document less than $9bn in savings from cancelled government contracts, none of which involved fraud. More

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      Trump to defend trade war in major address to Congress tonight, top adviser says – live

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      Jason Miller, a top adviser to Donald Trump, says the president will defend his trade war to Americans when he speaks to a joint session of Congress tonight.“I would say that he’s going to lean into it and he’s going to talk about how increasing tariffs can actually go and close the trade deficits … [in] January we saw a record trade deficit, particularly when it comes to countries such as Canada, Mexico, China. And how, if we don’t go and do this now, we’re going to be completely wiped out by certain industries here in the United States,” Miller told CNN in an interview.“Ultimately the costs on this are going to be carried by the producers and the foreign countries as opposed to Americans,” he added, repeating a common argument of the administration that economists are skeptical of.Speaking to the former Trump advisor Larry Kudlow on Fox Business this hour, the US commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, said that talks with Canada and Mexico are ongoing, and an announcement on a middle ground solution on tariffs could be announced on Wednesday.“Both the Mexicans and the Canadians were on the phone with me all day today, trying to show that they’ll do better”, Lutnick said, “and the president is listening because you know he’s very, very fair and very reasonable. So I think he’s gonna work something out with them. It’s not gonna be a pause, none of that pause stuff. But I think he’s gonna figure out, ‘You do more, and I’ll meet you in the middle some way’. And we’re going to probably be announcing that tomorrow. So, somewhere in the middle will likely be the outcome. The president moving with the Canadians and Mexicans, but not all the way.”The Fox Business host Kudlow was the director of the National Economic Council during the first Trump administration.In addition to the mass firings of federal workers, the Trump administration’s plan to slash the federal government apparently includes a real estate fire sale.On its website, the General Services Administration, which manages federal properties, said it has identified 443 properties, totaling more than 80 million square feet that “are not core to government operations” now “designated for disposal.”The list of buildings to be put up for sale includes some of the most iconic properties in Washington, including the headquarters of the Department of Justice, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Labor Department.Reuters reports that the agency said sales could potentially save more than $430 million in annual operating costs. The move could, however, put federal agencies at risk of exploitation by private landlords.The list also includes the Washington headquarters for the Department of Energy, the Department of Agriculture, the American Red Cross building and the Office of Personnel Management. GSA’s own headquarters were also on the list.It also includes major office buildings in Atlanta, Cleveland, Los Angeles and Chicago, including the landmark Chicago Loop Post Office designed by Ludwig Mies van der Rohe.The largest union of federal workers says that fired probationary employees must be reinstated, after the office of personnel management (OPM) amended a memo that had ordered their termination.“OPM’s revision of its Jan. 20 memo is a clear admission that it unlawfully directed federal agencies to carry out mass terminations of probationary employees – which aligns with Judge Alsup’s recent decision in our lawsuit challenging these illegal firings,” the American Federation of Government Employees president, Everett Kelley, said in a statement.“Every agency should immediately rescind these unlawful terminations and reinstate everyone who was illegally fired.”Here’s more about the Trump administration’s about-face:Democrats have seized on reports that congressman Richard Hudson, who leads the House GOP’s campaign operation, has asked lawmakers to stop holding in-person town halls after several incidences where constituents aired grievances over Donald Trump’s haphazard cuts to the federal government.Politico reports that Hudson made the request in a private meeting today, though lawmakers don’t have to follow it. In response, top Democrats have accused Republicans of trying to hide while supporting unpopular policies. Here’s minority leader Hakeem Jeffries:
      House Republicans have just been ordered to stop holding town hall meetings. They can run from their extreme agenda. We will never let them hide.
      And Katarina Flicker, press secretary for the House Majority Pac, which supports Democratic candidates:
      If you’re going to have the audacity to raise prices and rip away health care from millions of Americans, you should at least have the courage to face your constituents. House Republicans are cowards.
      The nation’s largest union of auto workers said it supported Donald Trump’s tariffs on major US trading partners and was working with its administration “to end the free trade disaster”.The statement from the United Auto Workers comes after it endorsed Joe Biden’s re-election bid and its president, Shawn Fain, campaigned for Democrats last year. The political winds have since shifted, and the UAW says it is in favor of Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada as a way to undo the damage of free trade agreements that it claims undermined American manufacturing. From its statement:
      Tariffs are a powerful tool in the toolbox for undoing the injustice of anti-worker trade deals. We are glad to see an American president take aggressive action on ending the free trade disaster that has dropped like a bomb on the working class.
      There’s been a lot of talk of these tariffs “disrupting” the economy. But if corporate America chooses to price-gouge the American consumer or attack the American worker because they don’t want to pay their fair share, corporate America bears the blame for that decision. The working class suffered all the pain of NAFTA, and we won’t suffer all the pain of undoing NAFTA. We want to see corporate America, from the auto industry and beyond, recommit to the working class that makes the products and generates the profits that keep this country running.
      The UAW is in active negotiations with the Trump Administration about their plans to end the free trade disaster. We look forward to working with the White House to shape the auto tariffs in April to benefit the working class. We want to see serious action that will incentivize companies to change their behavior, reinvest in America, and stop cheating the American worker, the American consumer, and the American taxpayer.
      Earlier in the day, the Detroit automakers’ trade association pleaded for exemptions from the tariffs and warned they would undermine US car manufacturers.Add Republican former senator Pat Toomey to those who don’t think much of Donald Trump’s levying of tariffs on Mexico and Canada.On X, Toomey, who represented Pennsylvania until 2023, said:
      With his multiple rounds of tariffs, and the inevitable retaliations, President Trump has wiped out all of the S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gains since his election. Next come higher prices and job losses.
      Democratic lawmakers are split over whether to attend Donald Trump’s speech to a joint session of Congress this evening, and the degree to which they should express their dislike of what he will say.Many lawmakers plan to be there, but bring along guests with personal stories that can speak to the risks and failures of Trump’s ideology. Former House speaker Nancy Pelosi said she invited Elena Hung, an advocate for Medicaid, the insurance program for poor and disabled Americans that Trump wants to cut:
      Elena Hung’s courageous daughter, Xiomara, was born with a number of serious medical conditions and is thriving today as a result of access to quality health care – including Medicaid …
      At a time when Medicaid is under assault by those who seek to give tax breaks to billionaires and big corporations, I am honored that Xiomara’s story will be told through Elena’s attendance as my guest to this year’s address to a joint session of Congress.
      Some Democrats want to stage protests during the speech, not unlike the heckling Joe Biden got last year when he gave what turned out to be his final State of the Union address. Axios has more about their plans, which are not popular with minority leader Hakeem Jeffries:
      Some members have told colleagues they may walk out of the chamber when Trump says specific lines they find objectionable, lawmakers told Axios. Criticism of transgender kids was brought up as a line in the sand that could trigger members to storm out, according to a House Democrat.
      A wide array of props – including noisemakers – has also been floated: Signs with anti-Trump or anti-DOGE messages – just as Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) held up a sign during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech last year that said “war criminal.” Eggs or empty egg cartons to highlight how inflation is driving up the price of eggs.
      Finally, some lawmakers are boycotting the address. Among them is progressive Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who said on Bluesky she’d be “live posting and chatting with you all here instead. Then going on [Instagram] Live after.”The magnitude and scale of President Trump’s decision to go ahead with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico has had economists recalling the Tariff Act (1930) signed by President Herbert Hoover.It saw average tariffs jump by 20% for thousands of different imported goods, as the US tried to protect its depressed agricultural sector from foreign competition.Proposed by senator Reed Smoot and representative Willis C Hawley, the bill, reported in the Manchester Guardian (below) was opposed by more than onethousand economists, who warned Hoover of a dramatic downturn in US trade with other countries, especially from those that retaliated.Nonetheless Hoover signed it into law, with some Congress members, realising the vote was quite close, engaging in logrolling to get something for their constituency in return for their support.The impact of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was, as predicted, highly damaging to the United States, with estimates of imported goods, many of which were needed by US industry and commerce, plummeting by nearly half.The tariffs also caused shock waves to global trade as other nations deployed protectionist policies, resulting in an estimated half of the 25% decline in world trade.Elon Musk will brief House republicans tonight about criticism of Doge cuts, Bloomberg News and the Hill report. Tonight at 7pm, Musk, who leads the so-called Department of Government Efficiency – which has been slashing the federal workforce and the budgets of federal agencies – will meet in the House basement with Republican lawmakers about complaints from their constituents about the mass firings.Mass firings have taken place at the Department of Veteran Affairs, Defense Department, Department of Education, Department of Health and Human Services, the IRS, National Parks, and more.In a message to employees on Monday, the newly confirmed secretary of education, Linda McMahon, a billionaire ex-wrestling executive, laid out the “final mission” for the department as Donald Trump threatens to dismantle the agency.“My vision is aligned with the President’s: to send education back to the states and empower all parents to choose an excellent education for their children,” wrote McMahon, a co-founder of World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE), the professional wrestling organisation. “This is our opportunity to perform one final, unforgettable public service to future generations of students.”The message comes as Trump is reportedly finalizing plans to issue an executive order to eliminate the 45-year-old US Department of Education and eliminate or reorganize the department’s functions and programs.Workers at the Department of Education called the email a “power grab” focused on privatization at the expense of children with disabilities and from low-income families.“It’s heartbreaking to read such a disingenuous, manipulative letter from the head of the agency,” said one employee who requested to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation. “I don’t read the letter to be an end to the department. It reads as a transformation into something sinister, a tool for the president to use to ensure his ideology is implemented by states and local governments at the risk of losing funding. It’s the exact overreach it’s purporting to stop.”You can read more on this story here:Trump took to his social media platform Truth Social to respond to Canada’s announcement of retaliatory measures against the US after Donald Trump imposed his sweeping tariffs plan: “Please explain to Governor Trudeau, of Canada, that when he puts on a Retaliatory Tariff on the U.S., our Reciprocal Tariff will immediately increase by a like amount!”Trump flippantly referring to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “Governor” in his post underscores the president’s previous comments that he wants to annex Canada and make it the 51st US state.When asked what he would tell his constituents who have federal government jobs and are worried about the so-called department of government efficiency’s cuts to the federal workforce, Republican senator Tommy Tuberville told ABC News: “We’re going to have to suck it up.” He echoed Trump’s calls to “stop the bleeding” and spend less, even though this means it will hurt Americans. Federal employees make up 7.6% of the workforce Huntsville, Alabama. Many of these employees work at Nasa’s Marshall Space Flight Center.In response to the tariffs that went in effect today, which experts say will raise the price of goods, Tuberville said “there’s going to be pain” but that it was the best way forward for the country.Donald Trump has upended the United States’ relationship with three of its top trading partners by following through on his campaign promise to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. Prime minister Justin Trudeau said the tariffs were “a very dumb thing to do” and announced Canada would impose retaliatory levies, while in Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum said she would announce her nation’s response on Sunday. Trump defended the decision as necessary to restore domestic manufacturing, though his commerce secretary acknowledged they could drive prices higher in the short term. The president is expected to elaborate on the decision this evening, when he addresses the first joint session of Congress of his new term.Here’s what else has happened today so far:

      The CEOs of two large US retailers, Target and Best Buy, said they expected prices to go up as a result of Trump’s trade war.

      Ontario’s premier Doug Ford told the Wall Street Journal that he was imposing a 25% export tax on electricity sent to three US states, and might cut it off altogether if the tariffs linger.

      Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was ready to sign the minerals deal Trump was demanding, and acknowledged his White House meeting last week “did not go the way it was supposed to”.
      The Trump administration has backed down from its demand for federal agencies to fire employees on probation, even after many have already been let go.The decision comes as a federal judge temporarily halted the administration’s move, which was part of a larger effort to thin out the federal workforce and targeted at workers who were newly hired or promoted.In a revised memo, the office of personnel management instead instructed agency human resource chiefs to send them lists of workers on probation and determine whether those employees should be retained, without specifying that they be terminated. It’s unclear what this will mean for workers who have already been fired.The development was first reported by the Washington Post.Jason Miller, a top adviser to Donald Trump, says the president will defend his trade war to Americans when he speaks to a joint session of Congress tonight.“I would say that he’s going to lean into it and he’s going to talk about how increasing tariffs can actually go and close the trade deficits … [in] January we saw a record trade deficit, particularly when it comes to countries such as Canada, Mexico, China. And how, if we don’t go and do this now, we’re going to be completely wiped out by certain industries here in the United States,” Miller told CNN in an interview.“Ultimately the costs on this are going to be carried by the producers and the foreign countries as opposed to Americans,” he added, repeating a common argument of the administration that economists are skeptical of.Back in the US, more business leaders are warning consumers to expect higher prices as a result of Donald Trump’s trade war. Here’s more on that, from the Guardian’s Callum Jones and Leyland Cecco:Americans have been warned to brace for higher prices within days after Donald Trump pulled the trigger on Monday and imposed US tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and hiked tariffs on China.Global stock markets came under pressure again on Tuesday, with leading indices falling sharply – and the benchmark S&P 500 losing all its post-election gains – as Canada, Mexico and China vowed to retaliate, and investors balked at the prospect of an acrimonious trade war.US retail giants predicted that prices were “highly likely” to start rising on shelves almost immediately after a 25% duty came into effect on exports from Mexico to the US.Most Canadian exports to the US also now face a 25% duty, with a 10% rate for energy products. The Trump administration imposed a 10% levy on all Chinese exports to the US last month, which has now been doubled to 20%.Trump, who won back the White House after pledging repeatedly to bring prices down, has acknowledged that his controversial trade strategy could lead them to rise. Consumers could face “some short-term disturbance”, the president conceded last month.With US retailers relying heavily on imports from Mexico and Canada to stock their shelves, top executives claimed they would have no choice but to increase prices.Justin Trudeau went on to accuse Donald Trump of seeking to destroy the Canadian economy to make the country easier to annex – something he insisted was “never going to happen”.“What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that will make it easier to annex us, is the second half of his thought. Now, first of all, that’s never going to happen. We will never be the 51st state, but yeah, he can do damage to the Canadian economy, and he started this morning,” Trudeau said.The prime minister warned that Americans will suffer in the trade war as well:
      As American families are going to find out, that’s going to hurt people on both sides of the border. Americans will lose jobs, Americans will be paying more for groceries, for gas, for cars, for homes, because we have always done best when we work together. So we are, of course, open to starting negotiations on the customer review, but let us not fool ourselves about what he seems to be wanting.
      Justin Trudeau also said that he did not believe Donald Trump’s insistence that tariffs were imposed in retaliation for Canada’s failure to combat fentanyl trafficking.“We have laid out extensive plans, actions, cooperations, including as recently as the past days in Washington, and they have always been very well received, and the numbers bear that out,” the prime minister said.“I think in what President Trump said yesterday, that there is nothing Canada or Mexico can do to avoid these tariffs, underlines very clearly what I think a lot of us have suspected for a long time, that these tariffs are not specifically about fentanyl, even though that is the legal justification he must use to actually move forward with these tariffs.” More