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    White House officials rush to defend Trump after shaky economic week

    Donald Trump administration officials fanned out on Sunday’s US political shows to defend the president’s policies after a bruising week of poor economic, trade and employment numbers that culminated with the firing of labor statistics chief Erika McEntarfer.US trade representative Jamieson Greer said Trump has “real concerns” about the jobs numbers that extend beyond Friday’s report that showed the national economy added 73,000 jobs in July, far below expectations. Job growth numbers were revised down by 285,000 for the two previous months as well.On CBS News’s Face the Nation, Greer defended Trump’s decision to fire McEntarfer, a respected statistician, saying: “You want to be able to have somewhat reliable numbers. There are always revisions, but sometimes you see these revisions go in really extreme ways.”He added: “The president is the president. He can choose who works in the executive branch.”But William Beach, who served as Trump’s commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in his first presidency, warned that McEntarfer’s dismissal would undermine confidence in the quality of US economic data.The BLS gave no reason for the revised data but noted that “monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors”.“This is damaging,” Beach said on Sunday on CNN’s State of the Union. “I don’t know that there’s any grounds at all for this firing.“And it really hurts the statistical system. It undermines credibility in BLS.”McEntarfer on Friday published a statement on social media reacting to her dismissal, calling it the “honor my life” to have served as BLS commissioner.She said the BLS employs “many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy”.“It is vital and important work, and I thank them for their service to this nation,” McEntarfer’s statement on the Bluesky platform said.Uproar over McEntarfer’s firing has come as a series of new tariff rates are due to come into effect this month. While the president has predicted a golden age for the US economy, many economists warn that higher import tariffs could ultimately weaken American economic activity.On CBS, Greer said that Trump’s tariff rates are “pretty much set” and unlikely to be re-negotiated before they come into effect.The first six months of Trump’s second terms have been characterized by a seesawing of tariff rate announcements that earned the president the moniker on Wall Street of Taco – “Trump always chickens out”. But last week he issued an executive order outlining tariff modifications for dozens of countries after he had twice delayed implementation.Yet Greer also said many of the tariff rates announced “are set rates pursuant to deals”.“Some of these deals are announced, some are not, others depend on the level of the trade deficit or surplus we may have with the country,” he said.On NBC’s Meet the Press, the national economic council (NEC) director, Kevin Hassett, said modified US tariff rates were now “more or less locked in, although there will have to be some dancing around the edges about exactly what we mean when we do this or that”.Asked if tariff rates could change again, he said, “I would rule it out because these are the final deals.”On Fox News Sunday, Hassett said he also supported McEntarfer’s dismissal. “I think what we need is a fresh set of eyes at the BLS, somebody who can clean this thing up,” he remarked.But former treasury secretary Larry Summers told ABC’s This Week that McEntarfer’s firing was “way beyond anything that Richard Nixon ever did”, alluding to the late former president who resigned in 1974 over the Watergate scandal.Summers said Trump’s claim that the poor job numbers were “phony” and designed to make him look bad “is a preposterous charge”.“These numbers are put together by teams of literally hundreds of people following detailed procedures that are in manuals,” Summers said. “There’s no conceivable way that the head of the BLS could have manipulated this number. The numbers are in line with what we’re seeing from all kinds of private sector sources.”Summers placed McEntarfer’s firing, Trump’s pressure on Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, to lower interest rates, and the strong-arm tactics that the administration has aimed at universities, law firms and media institutions in the same bucket.“This is the stuff of democracies giving way to authoritarianism,” Summers said. “Firing statisticians goes with threatening the heads of newspapers.“It goes with launching assaults on universities. It goes with launching assaults on law firms that defend clients that the elected boss finds uncongenial. This is really scary stuff.” More

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    Despite Trump, the US economy remains surprisingly resilient. But for how long? | Richard Partington

    Chaotic and unpredictable, keeping up with Donald Trump’s volatile trade war – never mind his presidency – can be tough.Back in April after his “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, the talk was of the president crashing the global economy. Then, after a Wall Street backlash, the world learned the acronym “Taco”, which stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out”. Now, things are heating up again.The president’s decision to hit US trading partners – including Canada, Brazil, India and Taiwan – with new tariffs after his self-imposed 1 August deadline certainly reignites a threat to the world economy. Dozens of countries have been left reeling, and US consumers are expected to pay a heavy price.However, there is a sense that things could have been worse. Nowhere more clearly is this reflected than on Wall Street: despite the chaos of the president’s trade war, the stock market remains close to record levels.After the latest escalation on Friday, and some worrying US jobs numbers, share prices took a hit, sliding by about 1%. But this is a setback rather than a rout.A further slide could be ignited by this capricious president. Trump’s decision to fire the official in charge of labour market data and his war on the independence of the US Federal Reserve will make matters worse.But despite the warnings of untold economic damage from the US tariff war earlier this year, the American economy has proven surprisingly resilient in recent months.Last week, the president seized on US growth figures showing the economy had expanded at an annualised rate of 3% in the second quarter, far in excess of the 2.4% rate predicted on Wall Street. Could the “fake news” media have it wrong? Are tariff wars “good, and easy to win,” as Trump claims?While inflation has ticked up, from 2.4% in May to 2.7% in June, it is well below the peak that followed the height of the pandemic disruption and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and is far from hitting the levels feared.Back in April, in a country wrought with division, Democratic voters reckoned inflation was on track to hit 7.9% within a year, while Republicans said it would collapse to 0.9%.Butthere is good reason why the US economy has so far defied the prophecies of Armageddon. For starters, the hot-cold nature of Trump’s tariff war means investors still anticipate further deals will be done to avoid the worst threats from ever materialising. The toughest tariffs introduced on Friday are only just arriving, too, meaning any impact has yet to emerge.Most countries have not hit back with retaliatory measures, which would have dramatically worsened things by putting international trade into a deeper tailspin.Meanwhile, knowing full well the dangers of this erratic president, businesses have been planning for months to avoid the worst-case scenarios.US companies rushed to stockpile goods before the trade war, helping them to keep prices down for now. Some firms have taken a hit to profits, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank, reckoning this is better than testing struggling American consumers – worn out by years of high inflation – with further price increases.The tariff costs are also being spread by multinationals, by increasing prices across the markets they operate in. In one high-profile example, Sony has put up the price of its PlayStation 5 by as much as 25% in some markets, including the UK, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. But not in the US.Still, there are signs that consequences are coming. When US businesses exhaust their pre-tariff stockpiles, it is likely that prices will creep higher. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of an erratic president is hitting jobs and investment.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionLast week’s US jobs market data has reignited fears over the resilience of the American economy. Tariffs are weighing on business confidence and steadily creeping into consumer prices.GDP growth of 3% might appear robust on the face of things, but this figure was heavily influenced by the 0.5% fall in output in the first quarter, when the surge in US firms rushing to beat Trump’s tariffs distorted activity. Growth in the first half averaged 1.25%, markedly slower than the 2.8% rate for 2024 as a whole.Part of the reason Wall Street remains sanguine about this is the continued belief that things could have turned out worse. Deals are still expected, with the pause in tariffs for key US trade partners Mexico and China suggesting this most clearly.The investor view is that rather than tariffs the president would prefer a string of box-office moments in front of the TV cameras with trade partners paying tribute to the court of Trump.However, it would be wrong to underestimate the self-described “tariff man’s” love of border taxes. And even though his most extreme threats will be negotiated down, the final destination will still be much worse than before. An economic hurricane might be avoided but a storm is still the last thing businesses and consumers need.Britain’s US trade deal is a case in point. A 10% US tariff on British goods has been welcomed as a big victory for Keir Starmer given the alternative, but it is still far worse than before.British cars will face a tariff rate four times higher than previously, costing jobs and growth in Britain while hitting American consumers in the pocket.For the US consumer, the average tariff had been close to 2% before Trump’s return to the White House. After his 1 August escalation, that figure leaps to about 15% – the highest level since the 1930s.Almost a century ago a similar wrong-headed protectionist approach in Washington made the Great Depression far worse: the Smoot-Hawley tariffs hit the US and triggered a domino effect among the main industrialised nations, ultimately leading to the second world war.In the unpredictability of Trump’s trade war, hope remains that similar mistakes can be avoided. But significant damage is still being done. More

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    Good, mad and ugly: the US economy’s performance under Trump – in charts

    According to Donald Trump’s White House, the US economy is booming, inflation is dead and jobs are surging. A blizzard of economic reports has cast a pall on such claims in recent days.This week’s data on Trump’s early economic record was mixed – good, mad and ugly – with jobs numbers so weak he reached for the catchphrase he once used to build himself into a reality TV star: you’re fired.The picture is chaotic, with robust headline growth in the world’s largest economy, wild swings in trade, and a remarkable slowdown in the labor market.For six months, Trump has staged an extraordinary campaign to overhaul the global economy and extract concessions from Washington’s allies and rivals by threatening and imposing steep tariffs on their US exports.But the unpredictable, erratic rollout of this strategy has already had bizarre consequences.Resilient-ish growthOn the surface, at least, this week’s deluge of data opened with good news: the US economy returned to growth in the second quarter, with gross domestic product (GDP) – a broad measure of economic health – expanding at a rate not seen since last summer.But this followed an unexpected contraction in the first quarter, and underlined some more concerning figures, such as a 15.6% drop in private domestic investment. Businesses have been struggling to keep up with the hour-by-hour jerks and jolts on sweeping economies policies.Yes, there was good growth in the last quarter but in the first six months, the US economy grew at a mediocre 1.2%. The Wall Street Journal called it “the weirdest GDP report ever”.Imports surge and plungeDelve a bit deeper, and you start to see how the US economy is grappling with a series of extraordinary forces as Trump hammers out his trade strategy.Firms spent much of the first quarter waiting for the president to reveal his plans for tariffs: which countries would be targeted, at what rates, and when. They stockpiled, triggering an unprecedented surge in imports that pushed growth into the red.In the second quarter, however, as Trump started to ramp up his economic attacks, imports tumbled at an equally astonishing pace. Net exports – how much a country exports more than it imports – boosted GDP.Interest rates on holdThis is Trump’s least favorite chart. Despite his many public demands, threats and attacks, the Federal Reserve has not yet cut interest rates this year.Why? Jerome Powell, the central bank’s chair, has repeatedly argued it should wait and see the impact of the president’s trade strategy before moving. Fed officials are worried that inflation – despite Trump’s claims that it has collapsed on his watch – has actually remained stubborn, and might rise as a result of his tariffs.This has gone down extremely poorly in the White House, where officials are counting down the weeks until Powell’s term as chair ends next May.Jobs growth stallsData released on Friday fundamentally changed the way US policymakers and politicians think about the economy. Until then, many inside the Fed thought everything was broadly ticking over nicely – and Trump administration officials claimed they were overseeing a boom in activity.But July’s employment report revealed far fewer jobs were created that month than economists had expected, and revised down estimates for May and June by an astonishing 258,000. Job creation has stalled.“Look, this jobs report isn’t ideal,” Stephen Miran, chairman of the White House council of economic advisers, told CNN, before suggesting that fading uncertainty around trade and fiscal policy would lead to significant improvement.“It’s all going to get much, much better from here,” he added. More

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    Trump fires labor statistics chief hours after data showed jobs growth slowed

    Donald Trump fired the federal government official in charge of labor statistics, hours after data revealed jobs growth stalled this summer, prompting accusations that he is “firing the messenger”.The US president claimed that Erika McEntarfer, commissioner of labor statistics, had “faked” employment figures in the run-up to last year’s election, in an effort to boost Kamala Harris’s chances of victory.Trump later claimed: “Today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad”.He produced no evidence for these allegations, and insisted that the US economy was, in fact, “BOOMING” on his watch.But Friday’s employment figures told a very different story, and raised questions about the state of the labor market since Trump’s return to office.“We need accurate Jobs Numbers,” he wrote on Truth Social. “I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified.”McEntarfer was contacted for comment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed in a brief statement that she had been dismissed. William Wiatrowski, the agency’s deputy commissioner, will serve as acting commissioner.Trump’s abrupt announcement came as administration officials scrambled to explain a lackluster employment report. Not only did jobs growth fail to meet expectations in July, but previous estimates for May and June were revised significantly lower.The president was promptly accused of trying to hide accurate statistics. “Trump is firing the messenger because he doesn’t seem to like jobs numbers that reflect how badly he’s damaged the economy,” said Lily Roberts, managing director for inclusive growth at the Center for American Progress, a thinktank, said.“Politicizing our country’s collection of data on what’s going on in the economy … will make it harder to create an economy that makes sure everyone has a good job,” added Roberts. “Borrowing from the authoritarian playbook fuels more uncertainty that will cost Americans for years to come.”Paul Schroeder, executive director of the Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics, described the president’s allegation as “very damaging and outrageous”, adding: “Not only does it undermine the integrity of federal economic statistics but it also politicizes data which need to remain independent and trustworthy. This action is a grave error by the administration and one that will have ramifications for years to come.”McEntarfer is a widely respected economist and veteran employee of the federal government. She previously worked at the US Census Bureau under George W Bush and at the US census bureau under Barack Obama, Trump and Joe Biden.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionIn January 2024, before McEntarfer’s confirmation for her current post by the US Senate, her nomination was backed by four former BLS commissioners.In a letter also signed by organizations including the American Statistics Association and a string of senior economists, they said there were “many reasons” to confirm McEntarfer as commissioner of labor statistics, citing her “wealth of research and statistical experience”.She was ultimately confirmed by a vote in the Senate, with 86 votes cast in favor and eight against.Gene Sperling, chair of the national economic council under Bill Clinton and Obama, and who worked as an official under Biden, said he expected Trump to “destroy the credibility” of economic data when his administration suffered its first bad jobs report. “Now: first bad job report, and he just fired BLS head over absurd claims of bias,” Sperling wrote on X, formerly Twitter.Trump’s decision to fire McEntarfer was “outrageous but not surprising”, said Julie Su, former acting US labor secretary under Biden. “He hates facts, so he blames truth-tellers.”The US “needs and deserves trustworthy economic data”, added Su. “This is a pathetic attempt by the president to gaslight everyone about the consequences of his disastrous economic policies.” More

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    As Trump’s tariff regime becomes clear, Americans may start to foot the bill

    Burying the hatchet with Brussels, Donald Trump – flanked by the leader of the European Commission – hailed a bold new era of transatlantic relations, an ambitious economic pact, and declared: “This was a very big day for free and fair trade.”That was seven years ago. And then on Sunday, the US president – flanked by a different leader of the European Commission – hailed another new era of transatlantic relations, another economic pact and declared: “I think it’s the biggest deal ever made.”Trumpian hyperbole can typically be relied upon as long as he’s in the room, at the lectern or typing into Truth Social. What matters after that is the underlying detail – and we have very little, beyond a handful of big numbers designed to grab headlines.What we do know, as a result of this deal, is that European exports to the US will face a blanket 15% tariff: a tax expected, at least in part, to be passed along to US consumers. The price of key products shipped from the EU, from cars to medicine and wine, is about to come into sharp focus.This pact is not unique. Trump’s agreement with Japan also hits Japanese exports to the US with a 15% tariff. Most British exports to the US face a 10% tariff under his deal with the UK.A string of countries without such accords, including Brazil, Canada and South Korea, are set to face even higher US tariffs from Friday. The Trump administration currently has a blanket 10% levy in place for US imports, although the president threatened to raise this to “somewhere in the 15 to 20% range” earlier this week.Ignore, for a moment, the chaos and the noise. Put to one side the unpredictable stewardship of the world’s largest economy, and its ties with the world. And forget the many U-turns, pauses and reprieves which have followed bold pronouncements, again and again and again.If you, like many businesses in the US and across the world, are struggling to keep up, take a step back and look at a single number. Since Trump took office, the average effective US tariff rate on all goods from overseas has soared to its highest level in almost a century: 18.2%, according to the Budget Lab at Yale.Trump argues this extraordinary jump in tariffs will bring in trillions of dollars to the US federal government. On his watch, tariffs have so far brought in tens of billions of dollars more in revenue this year than at the same point in 2024.But who picks up the bill? The president and his allies have position this fundamental shift in economic policy as a historic move away from taxing Americans toward taxing the world. But in reality, everyone pays.Tariffs are typically paid at the border, by the importer of the product affected. If the tariff on that product suddenly goes from 0% to 15%, the importer – as you’d expected – will try to pass it on. Every company at every stage of the supply chain will quite literally try to pass the buck, as much as possible.And the very end of the chain, economists expect prices will ultimately rise for consumers. The Budget Lab at Yale estimates the short-term impact of Trump’s tariffs so far is a 1.8% rise in US prices: equivalent to an average income loss of $2,400 per US household.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBig firms that have so far done their best to hold prices steady amid the blizzard of tariff uncertainty are now starting to warn of increases. Inflation, which Trump claims is very low in the US, picked up in June.The president appeared to reluctantly reckon with the reality that Americans may start to foot the bill for his tariffs before setting off for Scotland late last week.Asked about the prospect of using revenue from tariffs to distribute “rebate” checks to US consumers, Trump said: “We’re thinking about that, actually … We’re thinking about a rebate, because we have so much money coming in, from tariffs, that a little rebate for people of a certain income level might be very nice.”Given what inflation did to Joe Biden’s electoral fortunes, and Trump’s keen eye for populist policies, it’s hardly a stretch to imagine those cheques – signed by Donald J Trump – landing in bank accounts in time for the midterm elections next November.And such a move would, indeed, be very nice. Especially as it appears increasingly likely that, after this week, Americans will probably be paying more for almost everything. More

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    Feeling flush? Americans can Venmo government to help pay off US debt

    John F Kennedy’s sage words from his inaugural address are forever seared into America’s political consciousness:“Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.”Six decades and some change later, the United States Treasury is keeping Kennedy’s spirit alive by offering Americans with a few dollars collecting dust in their Venmo balance a chance to fulfill a new patriotic duty: helping pay off the national debt.The US treasury department has long had a “Gifts to Reduce the Public Debt” page available for those that dislike traditional charity, feel like they don’t pay enough in taxes, or simply want to help the country stay No 1 in an eclectic list of superlatives that includes military spending, Olympic gold medals, prison population, corn subsidies, and healthcare costs.But the new-age, Gen Z-friendly method of payment is a recent addition, first flagged on Twitter by Planet Money’s Jack Corbett.A bipartisan punching bag that trades sides of the aisle depending on who’s in office and who needs funds earmarked for projects in their state, concern over the national debt is one of few issues that Democrats and Republicans can unite on. Also bipartisan is the debt’s growth, which has increased every year since 2001, when it sat at $10.28tn.As of this writing, the debt has ballooned to $36.72tn.America is on track to continue the trend, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will add $3.4tn to the debt over the coming decade. It is unclear how much money Trump and Elon Musk’s “Doge” saved, although analysis estimates the number at under the advertised $180bn, and a far cry short of the initially advertised $2tn.The federal government spent $6.75tn in Fiscal Year 2024 while collecting $4.92tn in revenue.Highlights of past and present government spending include the $151bn procurement process for the Trump administration’s Golden Dome missile defense project, over $2tn on Lockheed Martin’s long delayed F-35 fighter jet, and roughly $800bn in annual spending on the Pentagon, which recently failed its seventh audit in a row.Kind-hearted Americans have gone above and beyond their regular tax-paying duties contributing around $67.3m since 1996. That’s enough to fund 20 minutes of the US government’s spending habit.If Americans could dig into their couch cushions, eat less takeout, and tighten their belts, they might be able to tackle the problem once and for all. It would only take about $107,000 per person, payable via ACH, Paypal, credit or debit card, and now, Venmo. More

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    OpenAI CEO tells Federal Reserve confab that entire job categories will disappear due to AI

    During his latest trip to Washington, OpenAI’s chief executive, Sam Altman, painted a sweeping vision of an AI-dominated future in which entire job categories disappear, presidents follow ChatGPT’s recommendations and hostile nations wield artificial intelligence as a weapon of mass destruction, all while positioning his company as the indispensable architect of humanity’s technological destiny.Speaking at the Capital Framework for Large Banks conference at the Federal Reserve board of governors, Altman told the crowd that certain job categories would be completely eliminated by AI advancement.“Some areas, again, I think just like totally, totally gone,” he said, singling out customer support roles. “That’s a category where I just say, you know what, when you call customer support, you’re on target and AI, and that’s fine.”The OpenAI founder described the transformation of customer service as already complete, telling the Federal Reserve vice-chair for supervision, Michelle Bowman: “Now you call one of these things and AI answers. It’s like a super-smart, capable person. There’s no phone tree, there’s no transfers. It can do everything that any customer support agent at that company could do. It does not make mistakes. It’s very quick. You call once, the thing just happens, it’s done.”The OpenAI founder then turned to healthcare, making the suggestion that AI’s diagnostic capabilities had surpassed human doctors, but wouldn’t go so far as to accept the superior performer as the sole purveyor of healthcare.“ChatGPT today, by the way, most of the time, can give you better – it’s like, a better diagnostician than most doctors in the world,” he said. “Yet people still go to doctors, and I am not, like, maybe I’m a dinosaur here, but I really do not want to, like, entrust my medical fate to ChatGPT with no human doctor in the loop.”His visit to Washington was aligned with the Trump administration’s unveiling of its “AI action plan”, which is focused defining and easing some regulations and promoting more datacenters. Altman’s latest engagement is with the federal government under Donald Trump, which has taken on a new tune compared with years past. While much has changed with the tech over the years, under the Biden administration, OpenAI and its rivals asked the government to regulate AI. Meanwhile under Trump, they talk of accelerating to beat China.At the fireside chat, he said one of his biggest worries was over AI’s rapidly advancing destructive capabilities, with one scenario that kept him up at night being a hostile nation using these weapons to attack the US financial system. And despite being in awe of advances in voice cloning, Altman warned the crowd about how that same benefit could enable sophisticated fraud and identity theft, considering that “there are still some financial institutions that will accept the voiceprint as authentication”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionOpenAI and Altman are already under way on their big pivot to Washington, attempting to crash a party at which Elon Musk once held the golden ticket. Along with announcing plans to open his company’s first office in Washington next year, Altman faced the Senate commerce committee for his first congressional testimony since his high-profile appearance in May 2023 that propelled him on to the global stage. More