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    ‘I hate to predict things’: Trump doesn’t rule out US recession amid trade tariffs

    Donald Trump on Sunday refused to rule out the possibility that the US economy will head into recession this year and that inflation will rise, as his chaotic trade tariffs policy cause uncertainty and market turbulence.The US president predicted that his economic goals would take time and a period of transition to bear fruit. But when asked in an interview with the Fox News show Sunday Morning Futures “are you expecting a recession this year?” he demurred.“I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us,” Trump said.When asked whether he thought his tariffs on US imports would fuel inflation, he said: “You may get it. In the meantime, guess what? Interest rates are down.”He downplayed recent stock market volatility that followed his ducking and weaving over tariff policy on exports from Canada, Mexico and China and similar threats to other countries, despite his usual fixation with market performance in relation to the politics of the day and an appetite to claim credit when stocks rise on his watch.“You have to do what’s right,” he said.Last week the Atlanta Federal Reserve suggested that the US economy is on course to contract in the first quarter, triggering fears a recession could hit the world’s largest economy if weakness persisted and fueling stock market jitters.In 2018 Trump posted on Twitter, now X, that “trade wars are good, and easy to win”, a view that is not widely shared by financial and economic experts.On Sunday, however, he was cautious overall after boasting throughout his election campaign of the swift gains his policies would bring for the US economy and ordinary Americans’ finances.Fox News Sunday Morning Futures anchor Maria Bartiromo introduced the topic of recession by telling Trump “look, I know you inherited a mess”, even though most experts agree that predecessor Joe Biden, a Democrat, left the Republican president a stable economy where inflation, although painfully high for a long time, was continuing to come down and international trading conditions for the US were steady.Meanwhile, also on Sunday morning, NBC’s Meet the Press TV politics show was interviewing US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick.He pushed back on concerns that the prospect of Trump’s global tariffs would cause a recession in the US. “Absolutely not,” he said. “There’s going to be no recession in America.”Lutnick added: “Anybody who bets against Donald Trump, it’s like the same people who thought Donald Trump wasn’t going to win a year ago … you are going to see over the next two years the greatest set of growth coming from America … I would never bet on recession, no chance.”

    Reuters contributed reporting More

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    Trump temporarily spares carmakers from US tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico

    Donald Trump has temporarily spared carmakers from sweeping US tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, one day after an economic strike on the US’s two biggest trading partners sparked warnings of widespread price increases and disruption.The US president extended his aggressive trade strategy at midnight on Tuesday by targeting the country’s two closest neighbors with duties of 25%.US retail giants predicted that prices were “highly likely” to start rising on store shelves almost immediately, raising questions about Trump’s promises to “make America affordable again” after years of heightened inflation.After a call with top executives at General Motors, Ford and Stellantis, however, Trump approved a one-month exemption from tariffs on “any autos coming through” the US, Mexico and Canada, the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, announced on Wednesday.The exemption has been granted “at the request of the companies”, Leavitt told reporters, “so they are not at an economic disadvantage”.While Trump has claimed tariffs will embolden US industry by forcing global firms to build factories in the US, Ford CEO Jim Farley publicly cautioned last month that imposing steep tariffs on Canada and Mexico could “blow a hole” in the country’s auto industry.Shares in large carmakers rose sharply, with GM up 7.2%, Ford up 5.8% and Stellantis up 9% in New York. The benchmark S&P 500 increased 1.1% on Wall Street.A separate call between Trump and Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, did not lead to any larger breakthrough, however. Trudeau “largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies”, Trump declared on his Truth Social platform after they spoke. “These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!”Trudeau insisted there had been improvements at the border, the US president claimed, adding that he told him this was “not good enough”.During Trump’s joint address to Congress on Tuesday evening, he acknowledged that tariffs would cause disruption. There will be “a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that”, he said.He blamed cost of living challenges on his predecessor, Joe Biden, from whom he claimed to have inherited “an economic catastrophe and an inflation nightmare”.The US economy has, in fact, remained resilient in recent years, and inflation has fallen dramatically from its peak – at the highest level in a generation – three years ago.“Among my very highest priorities is to rescue our economy and get dramatic and immediate relief to working families,” said Trump. “As president, I am fighting every day to reverse this damage and make America affordable again.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump spoke on Wednesday with Trudeau. “Even though you’re a very smart guy, this is a very dumb thing to do,” Trudeau told Trump publicly after the US imposed tariffs this week.Trump had initially pledged to target Canada and Mexico with tariffs on his first day back in office. Upon his return, however, he said he was considering imposing the tariffs at the start of February. Last month, he offered Canada and Mexico a one-month delay at the 11th hour.Trump and his allies claim that higher tariffs on US imports from across the world will help “Make America great again”, by enabling it to obtain political and economic concessions from allies and rivals on the global stage.But businesses, both inside the US and worldwide, have warned of widespread disruption if the Trump administration pushes ahead with this strategy.Since winning November’s presidential election, the president has focused on China, Canada and Mexico, threatening the three markets with steep duties on their exports unless they reduced the “unacceptable” levels of illegal drugs crossing into the US. More

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    As Republicans thunderously applauded and Democrats walked out in droves, Trump’s Congress speech showcased the US divide | Lloyd Green

    Donald Trump is busy while the world around him is mired in chaos. Six weeks into his second term, he has reversed the course of US policy towards Ukraine, imposed tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, and delegated the task of slashing government to Elon Musk. The stock market swoons.Recession and stagflation are no longer hypotheticals. The term “trade war” fills the headlines. The Dow sits hundreds of points below where it stood on Inauguration Day. Trump’s second term is already consequential and controversial.In the opening words of his speech to a joint session of Congress, he proclaimed that America was back, that the country’s golden age lay ahead, and that “momentum” had returned. He spoke for nearly two hours, the longest speech to Congress ever. Trump was nakedly partisan, the reception in the House chamber was raucous.Republicans thunderously applauded while Democrats delivered a chorus of catcalls. Early on, Speaker Mike Johnson demanded order, and called the sergeant-at-arms to remove Al Green, a Texas Democrat, from the hall. Democrats walked out in droves. The speech showcased the American divide.Throughout the night, Trump made Joe Biden his foil and punching bag. He labeled his predecessor the worst president in American history, lambasting his policies a disaster. Trump also took congressional Democrats to task for their refusal to stand or applaud during his speech. He continues to yearn for adulation.On that note, he compared himself as second to only George Washington, the first president. As ever, self-deprecation and modesty were nowhere to be found.Immigration and social issues policy took pride of place. Here, the speech sounded like a continuation of the fall campaign. Trump pointed to quiet at the southern border and read a laundry list of changes implemented by his administration.He bragged of making English the official language of the US, abolishing DEI in and out of government, and barring transgender athletes from competing in women’s sports. Said differently, his campaign slogan, “Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you”, continues to retain its salience.Trump remains a culture warrior, a tack that twice led him to the White House. Throughout the evening, he returned to immigration as a rhetorical touchstone. He also attacked street gangs, urban crime and street violence. For the Democrats to regain competitive political footing, they will need to reconcile themselves to the reality that mass immigration is unpopular, that being tough on crime is a winner, and that the language of “wokeness” goes no further than the faculty lounge.Past demands to defund the police will likely haunt the party for the foreseeable future. The fact that Trump repeated his call for an immigration gold card, with citizenship sold to Russian oligarchs at $5m a pop, does not detract from the potency of immigration as an issue.By the numbers, nearly half the US supports building a wall along the entire US-Mexico border. At the same time, support for conferring legal status to undocumented or illegal immigrants brought to the US as children declines.As to be expected, Trump ignored the stock market drop and instead pointed to a decline of interest rates. Whether the latter is a harbinger of a decline in inflation, a slowing economy, or both, remains to be seen. He repeated his call to “drill, baby, drill”. He also gave Elon Musk, his largest campaign donor and the head of Doge, star treatment and a shout-out.Foreign policy occupied little space. Trump repeated his threat toward Denmark over Greenland. “I think we’re going to get it – one way or the other, we’re going to get it.” He again staked a US claim to Panama. Ukraine came late, almost as an afterthought.Despite market turmoil, “tariffs” remained a beautiful word in the Trumpian lexicon. On Tuesday night, he announced that US-imposed reciprocal tariffs will kick in on 2 April, less than a month away. Much can go wrong between now and then.The possibility of averting a trade war does not appear to have lessened during the course of the speech. He said tariffs are about the “soul” of the country while acknowledging that they may bring temporary dislocation. Still, he didn’t seem all that bothered.The speech won’t unite a nation, but it will rally the Republican base. More

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    Democratic senator says democracy ‘at risk’ in rebuttal to Trump address

    Michigan senator Elissa Slotkin followed Donald Trump’s record-long joint congressional address on Tuesday by focusing on the risk of a declining democracy, directly challenging citizens to take an active role in holding elected officials accountable – herself included.The first-term Democratic senator, who represents a state won by the president, explained how preserving democracy requires constant, active participation from voters.“Our democracy, our very system of government, has been the aspiration of the world, and right now it’s at risk,” Slotkin said in the official Democratic response. “It’s at risk when the president decides you can pick and choose what rules you want to follow, when he ignores court orders and the constitution itself, or when elected leaders stand by and just let it happen.”The first-term senator outlined a three-step approach for citizens: staying informed, monitoring elected representatives’ voting records, and actively organizing around issues that matter to any given person. She framed citizen oversight as “American as apple pie”.Slotkin fact-checked claims about Trump’s narrative on a booming economy, explaining that while the administration had touted overwhelming success, “the national debt is going up, not down”.The International Chamber of Commerce echoed those concerns earlier today, warning that the massive Trump-activated tariffs on Canada and Mexico risked triggering an economic downturn that could devastate the global economy that followed a mass tumble in the stock market. Slotkin added that risking cuts to social security and other critical programs were not the way to solve the national debt, or government efficiency either.“We need a more efficient government. You want to cut waste, I’ll help you do it. But change doesn’t need to be chaotic or make us less safe,” she said.Drawing from her national security background, Slotkin warned that democracies are fragile institutions that can “flicker out” without real, around-the-clock protection.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“If previous generations had not fought for this democracy, where would we be today?” Slotkin said. More

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    China promises ‘countermeasures’ after Trump threatens additional 10% tariff

    Donald Trump has threatened China with an additional 10% tariff on its exports to the US, prompting a promise of “countermeasures” from Beijing and setting the stage for another significant escalation in the two governments’ trade war.The US president also claimed he planned to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting next Tuesday, having delayed their imposition last month after talks with his counterparts.Posting on Truth Social on Thursday, Trump said illicit drugs such as fentanyl were being smuggled into the US at “unacceptable levels” and that import taxes would force other countries to crack down on the trafficking.“We cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA, and therefore, until it stops, or is seriously limited, the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled,” the Republican president wrote. “China will likewise be charged an additional 10% Tariff on that date.”If Trump makes good on this latest threat, the move would further strain relations between the US and its largest trading partners.In response, China’s commerce and foreign ministries on Friday vowed to retaliate if Chinese companies were affected by the tariffs, accusing the US of using fentanyl as a “pretext” to threaten China.“Such behaviour is purely ‘shifting blame and shirking responsibility,’ which is not conducive to solving its own problems,” a commerce ministry spokesperson said. “If the US insists on proceeding with this course of action, China will take all necessary countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”Canada and Mexico have promised to retaliate if the US imposes tariffs on their exports. China hit back swiftly when Trump imposed a 10% tariff on its exports earlier this month.The Trump administration has repeatedly raised the threat of tariffs, vowing to rebalance the global economic order in the US’s favor. A string of announced measures have yet to be introduced, however, as economists and businesses urge officials to reconsider.The duties on imports from Canada and Mexico have been repeatedly delayed; modified levies on steel and aluminum will not be enforced until next month, and a wave of “reciprocal” tariffs, trailed earlier this month, will not kick in before April.This week, the US president vowed to slap 25% tariffs on the EU, claiming the bloc was “formed to screw the United States”, although details remain sparse. Duties will be applied “generally”, Trump said, “on cars and all other things”.The prospect of escalating tariffs has already thrown the global economy into turmoil – with consumers expressing fears about inflation worsening and the auto sector possibly suffering if the US’s two largest trading partners in Canada and Mexico are slapped with taxes.The prospect of higher prices and slower growth could create political blowback for Trump.Associated Press contributed reporting More

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    ‘It’s been a lifesaver’: millions risk going hungry as Republicans propose slashing food stamps

    During a recent grocery store visit, Audrey Gwenyth spent $159.01 on items such as eggs, Greek yogurt, edamame snaps, bagels, chia seeds, brownie mix, oatmeal, milk, cilantro rice and pork sausage. The entire bill was paid via her electronic benefit transfer, or EBT, card, which is how recipients of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (Snap), pay for groceries at participating stores, farmers markets and restaurants.“Because I’m a single mom and I don’t receive child support, I don’t have a lot of help in the world,” said Gwenyth, a mother of two toddlers, whose food budget is around $100 per week. She shares many of her EBT purchases on social media to help others make the most of their benefits. “I could not pay for food if it wasn’t for EBT. It’s been a lifesaver.”In the US, more than one in eight households say they have difficulty getting enough food. Snap, formerly known as food stamps, helps more than 42 million people fill those gaps, and is considered the country’s most effective tool to fight hunger. But now, the USDA-run program is facing attacks from House Republicans who see deep cuts as a way to pay for an extension of the 2017 tax bill that benefits the very wealthy.On Tuesday night, the House narrowly passed a budget resolution that called for $4.5tn in tax cuts and a $2tn cut in mandatory spending, which includes programs such as Snap and Medicaid.While it is unknown exactly how much would be slashed from Snap, some estimates say funding could be reduced by at least 20%. The House budget resolution enables committees to cut $230bn from the agriculture committee over 10 years in order to help extend tax cuts for the top 1%, according to the nonpartisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.This means the millions who rely on Snap would receive less help, and many of them could lose assistance altogether, even amid rising food costs and inflation.“Hunger and poverty aren’t going to stop because you cut a program,” said Gina Plata-Nino, Snap’s deputy director at the Food Research & Action Center (Frac). “The price of food keeps going up, things are more expensive, people are concerned about tariffs in terms of consumer goods and people relying on these benefits will not have any recourse.”Cuts could be made by limiting how people use Snap, removing benefits from those who lose their jobs and arbitrarily capping maximum benefits. Congress could also convert Snap into a block grant and have states pay a portion of benefits, which could limit access to assistance at a time when families are struggling already.Anti-hunger groups are especially alarmed about proposed alterations to the Thrifty Food Plan, which the USDA uses to determine benefit amounts and the annual cost of living of living adjustment, or Cola. One Republican proposal would cut $150bn from the program by limiting Thrifty Food Plan updates, which means benefits would be slashed for every American using Snap, affecting one in five kids in the US.Republicans have sent mixed signals. The House agriculture chair GT Thompson (Republican of Pennsylvania) said last week there would be no Snap cuts in reconciliation or the upcoming farm bill. But other Republicans have signaled openness to this, and critics of the budget resolution question how lawmakers could possibly chop $230bn without affecting Snap.Even before cuts, the current average Snap benefit is only around $6 a day per person, which means that they often fall short of what people actually need. “When you think about the rising cost of food, that is such a small amount of food,” said Rachel Sabella, the director of No Kid Hungry New York, a non-profit that works to end childhood hunger. “People are making tough choices in the grocery store.”Six dollars doesn’t get you much these days at food retailers. This year, the average price of eggs hit a record high of $4.95, and is expected to keep climbing as the US deals with the ongoing bird flu outbreak. A gallon of milk costs more than $4 and a pound of ground chuck costs $5.50, according to the consumer price index.To get by, families often hide food to save so it lasts later into the month. Caretakers report eating less or cutting their portion sizes and mothers say they sometimes forgo food at the end of the month so their kids can eat. People also reduce protein and produce in favor of cheap filler foods like rice. For people already making concessions, these proposed cuts would be devastating.“I live in poverty, not ignorance, so I keep a monthly budget and watch my spending very closely, which requires precision,” said Brytnee Bellinger, who is visually impaired and receives around $80 per month in food assistance. Bellinger usually spends her Snap dollars on grass-fed bison, which she says helps combat her iron deficiency, and fresh produce from farmers markets. If her benefit amount was reduced, she would likely be unable to afford either.“How are people supposed to balance making healthy food choices with spending wisely if their Snap benefit amount doesn’t accurately reflect the current cost of a healthy diet?” she said. “Poor people buying food isn’t the cause of federal overspending.”After being founded in 1964 as part of Lyndon Johnson’s war on poverty, Snap has been targeted by both Republicans and Democrats. Cutbacks to the program were first made in the early 1980s under Ronald Reagan. Bill Clinton signed the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996, which set time limits, reduced maximum allotments and eliminated eligibility of most legal immigrants for food stamps. During his first term, Donald Trump unsuccessfully attempted to cut Snap by 25 to 30%.While the Biden administration has been lauded for updating the Thrifty Food Plan to boost the amount of money people have to buy food, Republicans have made reversing the increase a major priority.GOP lawmakers and conservative thinktanks have falsely criticized the program as having high administrative costs and being rife with fraud and abuse. (In 2023, around 6% of Snap spending went to state administrative costs and few Snap errors are due to fraud on the part of recipients.) They’ve also attacked recipients for using Snap on things such as sweetened drinks. Trump officials have said that they want to ban sugary beverages, candy and more, although similar efforts have failed in the past.And the USDA secretary, Brooke Rollins, signaled on Tuesday that she plans to target Snap under the guise of keeping undocumented immigrants from receiving benefits even though they are already generally prohibited from receiving food assistance.When Snap benefits are cut, researchers have found that children were more likely to be food insecure, in poor health and at risk for development delays. Since Snap is part of a larger ecosystem, advocates say cutting the program will increase healthcare costs, poverty and hardship.Retail giants such as Walmart, Albertsons, Costco, Sam’s Club and Kroger would also be severely affected since Snap dollars are most often spent there. More than 25% of all Snap dollars are spent at Walmart and nearly 95% of the program’s recipients say they shop at the retailer.Food banks and pantries would also be massively affected by cutbacks. “If Snap is cut at the levels they’re talking about, food banks are not going to be able to fill that gap – we’re meant to be an emergency system,” said Jason Riggs, the director of policy and advocacy at Roadrunner Food Bank of New Mexico. “A cut to Snap at this time, when food costs are continuing to rise, the timing is horrifying. We can’t food bank our way out of this.” New Mexico has the eighth highest hunger rates in the nation and Riggs said many of their clients already use Snap.In Los Angeles, 25% of households face food insecurity, far higher than the national average of 14%, and rates are expected to increase due to the effects of the recent wildfires. “If cuts to Snap are enacted, we would need to further draw on philanthropic and community support to try to meet the increased demand for our services,” said Chris Carter, senior policy and research manager at Los Angeles Regional Food Bank, which has distributed $14.2m pounds of food and personal care products through their network, which is a 37% increase compared with last year.Advocates of Snap say there are still countless people who qualify for assistance but do not apply for it due to administrative burdens, social stigma and deeply ingrained myths about welfare and poverty in the US. Food insecure veterans are consistently less likely than nonveterans to be enrolled in Snap and data from the National Council on Aging shows that while nearly 9 million older adults are eligible for Snap, they are not enrolled. Immigrants who are permanent residents or green card holders are only able to apply for Snap after a five-year waiting period, although there are a few exceptions for children and disabled people receiving other benefits.Since being diagnosed with lupus, pancreatitis and gallbladder stones, Michele Rodriguez has been unable to work and had to change her diet to include daily servings of fresh vegetables for juicing to help with her health conditions. If her benefit was reduced, she said she would have to prioritize feeding her two children and rely on food pantries, which would have long lines, or free giveaways for produce.“It’s just devastating because people like myself and seniors and children need help with food,” said Rodriguez, who sees the proposed cuts as being unfair and contrary to what Trump said while campaigning. “The price of food has not gone down. It’s really sad to see he’s only fighting for and helping people like him, but the people in the middle and lower class, what about us? Don’t you want to protect all of us?” More

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    Trump threatens 25% tariffs on foreign cars and semiconductor chips

    Donald Trump stood firm against warnings that his threatened trade war risks derailing the US economy, claiming his administration could hit foreign cars with tariffs of around 25% within weeks.Semiconductor chips and drugs are set to face higher duties, Trump told reporters at a news conference on Tuesday.The White House has repeatedly raised the threat of tariffs since Trump returned to office last month, pledging to rebalance the global economic order in America’s favor.A string of announced tariffs have yet to be introduced, however, as economists and business urge the Trump administration to reconsider.Duties on imports from Canada and Mexico have been repeatedly delayed; modified levies on steel and aluminum, announced last week, will not be enforced until next month; and a wave of so-called “reciprocal” tariffs, also trailed last week, will not kick in before April.Tariffs are taxes on foreign goods. They are paid by the importer of the product – in this case, companies and consumers based inside the US – rather than the exporter, elsewhere in the world.Asked on Tuesday if he had decided the rate of a threatened tariff on cars from overseas, Trump said he would “probably” announce that on 2 April, “but it’ll be in the neighborhood of 25%”.Upon being asked the same question about threatened tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, Trump replied: “It’ll be 25% and higher, and it’ll go very substantially higher over the course of a year.”The ramp-up, he explained, was designed to lure manufacturers to the US. “When they come into the United States, and they have their plant or factory here, there is no tariff.”Executives have cautioned that the administration’s plan for tariffs risks harming the US economy. A 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada “will blow a hole in the US industry that we have never seen”, Jim Farley, the Ford CEO, told an investor conference in New York last week. More