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      Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point, for first time in nearly a year – as it happened

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      The Fed just announced an interest rate cut by a quarter point, which was largely anticipated amid a weakening labor market.This is the first time the Fed has cut rates since December 2024. Rates now stand at a range of 4% to 4.25%, the lowest since November 2022.Stay tuned for a press conference Fed chair Jerome Powell is expected to give at 2.30pm ET.The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point today, a move that will reverberate across the economy in the coming months. Fed chair Jerome Powell spoke at a closely watched press conference about the Fed’s decision.Here’s a summary of what happened this afternoon:

      The Fed cut interest rates by a quarter point, the first cut since December 2024. Rates are now at a range of 4% to 4.25%.

      Fed economists also released projections, which point to a majority expecting at least one more rate cut by the end of the year.

      During his press conference, Powell said the rate cut was a move toward “risk management” instead of a testament to the strength of the economy. Economists at the Fed are concerned about a weakening labor market, which could see higher layoffs if worsened.

      But Fed officials are still concerned about inflation. Powell said that prices are likely to continue going up toward the end of the year as companies pass along the price of tariffs to consumers.

      A question remains: Will tariff-related inflation be a one-time price increase, or will it be persistent? Powell said economists at the Fed expect it to be more of a one-time price increase but that the Fed’s just is to make sure it’s not persistent.

      With pressure from the labor market and prices, Powell described it as an “unusual” situation for the Fed to manage. “Our tools can’t do two things at once,” he said.

      Powell also took questions about the recent appointment of Fed governor Stephen Miran, who was confirmed by the Senate on Monday. Powell assured that the Fed’s independence is a priority to the entire committee that sets interest rates. And the Fed’s structure offers protection: For a single member to have outsized influence, they need to “make really strong arguments based on the data and one’s understanding of the economy… That’s in the DNA of the institution.”
      Powell responded to a question about comments new Fed governor Stephen Miran made at his confirmation hearing in front of the Senate earlier this week.Miran said that the Fed actually has a “third mandate”, which is to “moderate long-term interest rates”.The introduction of a third mandate is in opposition to how Powell has framed the Fed’s “dual mandate” – balancing unemployment and price increases.“We always think of it as the dual mandate,” Powell said, explaining that moderate interest rates come from stable inflation.“As far as I’m concerned, there’s no thought of … incorporating that in a different way,” he said.Markets appear to be relatively unresponsiveness to the Fed’s highly anticipated rate cut. Both the S&P and Nasdaq are both slightly down for the day, while the Dow is up.It’s a stark contrast to last week, when markets shot up at data that showed wholesale prices falling slightly in August, and consumer inflation being within expectations for the month.The overall picture that Powell has painted of the economy in his press conference isn’t necessarily one that’s thriving. Powell said that the economy has left the Fed in an “unusual” situation, and said that the Fed’s rate cut is more about “risk management” rather than an testament to a strong economy. The recent rate cut could cause inflation to rise, but risks of the job market worsening under current rates are higher.“We’ve seen much more challenging economic times from a policy standpoint, the standpoint of what we’re trying to accomplish, it’s challenging to know what to do,” Powell said. “There are no risk-free paths now.”Powell was, again, questioned about Stephen Miran’s role as both a new Fed governor and Trump’s chair to the Council of Economic Advisor.A reporter asked Powell how the Fed can be nonpolitical if one of its voting members is explicitly connected to politics. Powell emphasized that there are 12 voting members and 19 total participants on the board.“The only way for any voter to really move things around is to be incredibly persuasive, and the only way to do that in the context in which we work is to make really strong arguments based on the data and one’s understanding of the economy,” Powell said. “That’s really all that matters. … That’s in the DNA of the institution, that’s not going to change.”A Politico reporter asked Powell how Americans will be able to tell if the Fed, which has historically been nonpartisan, starts to be partisan.“We don’t frame these questions at all or see them in terms of political outcomes. In another part of Washington, everything is seen through the lens of does it help or hurt this political party, this politicians,” Powell said. “That’s the framework. People find it hard to believe that’s not at all the way we think about things at the Fed. We take a longer perspective, we’re trying to serve the American people as best as we can.”“I think you would be able to tell. I don’t think we’ll ever get to that place.”When asked about Fed governor Lisa Cook’s lawsuit against Donald Trump for her firing (a court reinstated her last week), Powell said: “I see it as a court case that I would see as inappropriate for me to comment on.”Powell said that Fed officials are expecting inflation from tariffs to be a one-time price level increase, though “we can’t just assume that, [and] or job is to make sure that’s what happens.”“We continue to expect it to move up,” Powell said of prices. “Maybe not as high as we would have expected it to.”He added that the case for “persistent inflation” is weaker.Which is why the Fed cut rates, what he described as a “neutral” policy, given that inflation isn’t out of control, but the labor market has slowed down.But Powell acknowledged that it’s “an unusual situation” – the Fed would most likely want to be more careful with rate cuts because of inflation, but has to be wary of the labor market.“Our tools can’t do two things at once,” he said.Powell is again describing the labor market as being in a “curious balance” – a term that he first used in his Jackson Hole speech last month.The labor market is balanced out, meaning that the supply of workers is on par with the demand that employers have for workers, but it’s not necessarily a sign of strength.Because of immigration, “the supply of workers is coming down”, Powell noted. “At the same time, demand for workers has come down quite sharply to the point where we see what I’ve called a ‘curious balance’.”“Typically, when we say things are in balance that sounds good,” he added. “But in this case, the balance is because both demand and supply have come down sharply, now demand is coming down more sharply because we now see the unemployment rate going up.”A reporter asked Jerome Powell about Stephen Miran’s appointment, specifically on the fact that Miran is the first Fed governor to also have a role in the executive branch while also serving on the Fed board. Miran is the chair of the Council of Economic Advisors.“The committee remains united in pursuing our dual mandate goals,” Powell said in response. “We’re strongly committed to maintaining our independence and beyond that, I really don’t have anything to share.”Fed chair Jerome Powell just started his press conference on the Fed’s rate cut decision.As outlined in the board’s statement, Powell said that the unemployment rate, while still generally low, has edged up.“Job gains have slowed and the downside risks to unemployment have risen,” he said.Powell pointed to new immigration policy as a major factor in the labor market slowdown.“A good part of the slowing likely reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force, due to lower immigration and lower labor force participation,” Powell said. “Even so, labor demand has softened and the recent pace of job creation appears to be running below the breakeven rate needed to hold the unemployment rate constant.”The median projection for the unemployment rate, which is currently at 4.3%, sees it rising to 4.5% by the end of the year.Powells also said higher tariffs have begun to push up some prices in some categories of goods, though the full impact have yet to be seen. Price increases due to tariffs could be a one-time price increase or it could lead to “persistent” inflation.“Our obligation is to ensure that a one-time price increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” he said.Much of this is what Powell said during his speech last month at the Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole, during which he first suggested that the Fed was looking toward an interest rate cut.In economic projections released after the Fed’s rate-cute decision, members of the Fed’s board submitted their economic predictions for the economy over the next few years.A slight majority of board members seem to expect another rate cut by the end of the year, while a majority see more rate cuts in 2026. Board members are predicting a slight increase in unemployment, though they seem to think that inflation will largely cool in 2026 and 2027.It’s a more dovish take on the economy than how the Fed is describing the current economy in its board statement, where the Fed said that the labor market has slowed and inflation is going up – a dynamic that points to an economic condition known as stagflation.Before Fed chair Jerome Powell can expand on the Fed’s decision in his 2.30pm ET press conference, right now we just have the Fed’s statement on its rate cut to parse through why officials voted for a cut.Notably, the Fed’s rate-setting board took note of the jobs market.“Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low,” it said. It also noted that “inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated”.This is a change from the board’s last meeting in July, when it said that labor market conditions “remain solid”. And this is the first time the board has said inflation is going up.The statement also noted that Stephen Miran, Trump’s appointee to the board who was confirmed on Monday, was the only member of the board to vote against the rate cut. Miran wanted to lower rates by a half-point, instead of a quarter-point.The Fed just announced an interest rate cut by a quarter point, which was largely anticipated amid a weakening labor market.This is the first time the Fed has cut rates since December 2024. Rates now stand at a range of 4% to 4.25%, the lowest since November 2022.Stay tuned for a press conference Fed chair Jerome Powell is expected to give at 2.30pm ET.Inflation rose slightly in August as companies continued to push the cost of tariffs on to consumers.The newest update to the consumer price index (CPI), which measures a basket of goods and services, showed that prices increased 2.9% over the last year – the highest since January. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food costs, stayed stable at 3.1% after going up in July.Despite this slight uptick in inflation, Wall Street remains optimistic that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the central bank’s board meeting next week. The Fed is under intense pressure from Donald Trump to cut rates, but the decision looks likely to be led by fears that the US jobs market is weakening.Investors are anticipating a quarter-point rate cut. Rates currently stand at a range of 4.25% to 5.5%.The Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated last month that the central bank was gearing up to cut interest rates for the first time this year.For months, policymakers defied public calls from Trump to lower rates – and brushed off his increasingly aggressive criticism of the Fed’s decision to hold them steady.“With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” Powell said in a closely scrutinized speech at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, highlighting a “challenging” dichotomy of risks: that Trump’s tariffs might increase inflation, while his immigration policies knock the US labor market.Concerning economic signs, including data indicating that the labor market has stalled while inflation picked up, have reinforced expectations that many policymakers will want to tread carefully in the months ahead.Trump has already suggested that he will be unhappy with the modest cut the Fed is widely expected to unveil later. Powell “MUST CUT INTEREST RATES, NOW, AND BIGGER THAN HE HAD IN MIND”, the US president wrote on his Truth Social platform early on Monday, claiming: “HOUSING WILL SOAR!!!”The Trump administration’s extraordinary bid to fire Lisa Cook, a Fed governor appointed by Biden, and remove her from the central bank’s board before this meeting, has so far failed.Late on Monday, a federal appeals court rejected Trump’s request to block Cook from attending the Fed’s latest rate-setting session, which started yesterday.The president cited unconfirmed allegations of mortgage fraud as he attempted to fire Cook, who has denied wrongdoing and argued Trump has no authority to fire her. Her term is not due to expire until 2038.No president has pursued such action – and moved to dismiss a governor at the Fed, which has long been independent from political interference – since the central bank’s founding in 1913.Trump has made no secret of his hopes to increase his oversight of the Fed, calling into question the future of its longstanding independence from political oversight by publicly describing plans to swiftly build “a majority” on its board.The Trump administration raced to strengthen its influence over the Fed ahead of this week’s meeting.Stephen Miran, a senior official who served as chair of the White House council of economic advisers, was confirmed by Senate Republicans as a Fed governor on Monday evening, and formally sworn in on Tuesday.His appointment marks the first time in the history of the modern Federal Reserve, which stretches back almost a century, that a sitting member of the executive branch will also work at the highest levels of the central bank.While Miran described the Fed’s independence as “critical” during a confirmation hearing earlier this month, and pledged to preserve it as governor, his decision to only take unpaid leave from his current job at the White House, rather than resign, raised questions over his ability to operate independently.The US Federal Reserve is expected to announce the first interest rate cut since December as a two-day policy meeting nears its end.The Fed started the meeting on Tuesday, hours after Donald Trump’s new appointee narrowly won confirmation to join the central bank – while Fed governor Lisa Cook continues to fight her removal by the president.Stephen Miran, the chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, took the oath of office as a Fed governor early on Tuesday after narrowly winning a Senate confirmation vote along party lines on Monday night.There is little doubt that the Fed will make its first interest rate cut of 2025 after the latest gathering, as policymakers pivot towards shoring up a deteriorating jobs market.But concerns about political influence targeting the independent central bank looms over the gathering, as Trump repeatedly bashes Fed Chair Jerome Powell over his rate decisions, and after he moved to fire governor Lisa Cook, sparking a legal battle.On Tuesday, Trump told reporters that the Fed should “listen to smart people like me”. 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      US treasury secretary reportedly made similar mortgage pledge to Lisa Cook

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      Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, previously agreed to occupy two different houses at the same time as his “principal residence”, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, an agreement similar to one Donald Trump has called mortgage fraud in his unprecedented bid to fire the Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook.The Bloomberg report cites Bessent’s mortgages with lender Bank of America and his pledge in 2007 to primarily occupy homes in New York and Massachusetts.Mortgage experts told Bloomberg there was no sign of wrongdoing or proof of fraud in Bessent’s home-loan filings and said the issue highlights incongruities found in such documents.Bank of America did not rely on Bessent’s pledges and never expected him to occupy both homes as his primary residences, Bloomberg reported, citing the mortgage documents.“Nearly 20 years ago, Mr Bessent’s lawyers filled out paperwork properly, the bank has confirmed it was done properly, and this nonsensical article reaches the conclusion that this was all done properly,” Bessent’s lawyer Alex Spiro said in a statement.The Republican president, who appointed Bessent to the Treasury post, and members of his administration have accused Cook, an appointee of the Democratic former president Joe Biden, of committing mortgage fraud before taking office, a claim Cook denies.Congress included provisions in the 1913 law that created the Fed to shield the central bank from political interference. Under that law, Fed governors may be removed by a president only “for cause”, though the law does not define the term nor establish procedures for removal. No president has ever removed a Fed governor, and the law has never been tested in court. Trump has sought to remove her for cause, citing the alleged fraud.A US appeals court on Monday declined to allow Trump to fire her. The White House has said it will appeal the decision to the US supreme court. Trump’s justice department also has launched a criminal mortgage fraud inquiry into Cook, issuing grand jury subpoenas in Georgia and Michigan, Reuters previously reported.A loan estimate for an Atlanta home purchased by Cook showed that she had declared the property as a “vacation home”, according to a document reviewed by Reuters. The property tax authority in Ann Arbor, Michigan, also said Cook had not broken rules for tax breaks on a home there that had been declared her primary residence.Bloomberg in its report on Wednesday pointed to similar but not identical pledges made by an attorney on Bessent’s behalf on 20 September 2007, agreeing to make a Bedford Hills, New York, house his “principal residence” over the next year as well as another house in Provincetown, Massachusetts.“There are people who think that President Trump is putting undue pressure on the Fed. And there are people like President Trump and myself who think that if a Fed official committed mortgage fraud, that this should be examined, and that they shouldn’t be serving as one of the nation’s leading financial regulators,” Bessent told Fox Business Network in an interview on 27 August. More

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      Lisa Cook to remain at Federal Reserve while fighting Trump’s attempt to fire her, judge rules

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      A federal judge has ruled that Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook can stay in her post while suing Donald Trump over his unprecedented bid to fire her.Cook is legally challenging the US president after he sought to remove her, citing unconfirmed allegations of mortgage fraud, amid an extraordinary campaign by his administration to strengthen its control over the US central bank.She asked US district judge Jia Cobb to impose a temporary restraining order against Trump’s attempt to “immediately” dismiss her, pending further litigation. The administration has argued that Trump is able to fire Fed governors “for cause” and appoint replacements.Trump has spent months attacking the Fed, where most policymakers – including Cook – have so far defied his calls for interest rate cuts. He has spoken of rapidly building “a majority” on the central bank’s board, calling into question the future of its longstanding independence from political oversight.Trump moved to fire Cook after one of his allies, Bill Pulte, whom he tapped to lead the US Federal Housing Finance Agency, alleged she had claimed two different properties as primary residences when obtaining mortgages in 2021.“How can this woman be in charge of interest rates if she is allegedly lying to help her own interest rates?” Pulte wrote on X. He referred the case to the Department of Justice for investigation.After Cook declined to resign, Trump tried to remove her from the Fed’s board. The justice department is now looking into the allegations of mortgage fraud.In a court filing, Cook’s attorneys insisted she “did not ever commit mortgage fraud” as they outlined their case.Multiple federal agencies were provided details of Cook’s mortgage arrangements when she was first nominated, by Joe Biden, to join the Fed’s board in 2022, according to her representatives. “The Government has long known about the alleged facial inconsistencies in Governor Cook’s financial documents,” the filing said.On one background check form, for example, Cook said that she had listed one property in Michigan as a primary residence and another in Georgia as a second home.On a separate questionnaire, she listed both homes as her “present” residence; the Michigan property as her “current permanent residence”; and a third property, in Massachusetts, as both a present residence, but also a second home and rental property, she said. More

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      Donald Trump maelstrom likely to leave US economic model unrecognisable | Heather Stewart

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      Donald Trump observed blithely last week that if his cherished tariff regime is struck down by the US supreme court, he may need to “unwind” some of the trade deals struck since he declared “liberation day” in April.It was a reminder, as if it were needed, that nothing about Trump’s economic policy is set in stone. Not only does the ageing president alter his demands on a whim, but it is unclear to what extent he has the power to make them stick.Yet even if the “reciprocal” tariffs first announced on 2 April are rolled back, they are only one aspect of a much wider assault on the last vestiges of what was once known as the “Washington consensus”.To name just a few of Trump’s recent interventions, he has taken a 10% government stake in the US tech company Intel, demanded 15% of the revenue of Nvidia’s chip sales to China and suggested the chief executive of Goldman Sachs should go.This at the same as taking a sledgehammer to Federal Reserve independence by lobbing insults at the chair, Jerome Powell, and trying to sack Lisa Cook from the central bank’s board.The head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was removed by Trump after a run of poor jobs data; the chief of the National Labor Relations Board, Jennifer Abruzzo, was fired, too.The tech bros who back Trump loathe the NLRB for its role in upholding workers’ rights – mandating unionisation ballots at Amazon warehouses, for example.Trump’s approach is simultaneously systematic, in its determination to smash existing norms, and utterly chaotic. It is hard to categorise: corporate America is being unleashed – through the wilful destruction of environmental and labour standards, for example – and brought to heel.The leftwing senator Bernie Sanders welcomed Trump’s efforts to take a stake in Intel in exchange for government grants, for example – something he advocated in the Guardian back in 2022 – while some Republicans have condemned the approach as (heaven forbid) “socialism”.Partly because it coincides with the AI-fuelled stock boom that has propelled the value of tech companies into the stratosphere, the market response to this torching of the status quo has so far been modest.Whatever emerges from another three and a half years of this maelstrom is likely to be unrecognisable as the US economic model of recent decades.Its destruction has not happened overnight. The days were already long gone when the US, as the world’s undisputed economic superpower, could export free market, financialised capitalism worldwide.After the 2008 crash, the conditions for which were created in Wall Street boardrooms, any moral or practical claim the US had to offer an economic example to other nations evaporated.As the turmoil rippled out through the global economy, and the US government responded by bailing out large chunks of its financial sector, the lie of laissez-faire was laid bare.The crisis exposed the risks of turbocharged capitalism to countries outside the US, too – not least in the former Soviet bloc – that had been advised to adopt the model wholesale.As Ivan Krastev and Stephen Holmes put it in their compelling polemic The Light that Failed, “confidence that the political economy of the west was a model for the future of mankind had been linked to the belief that western elites knew what they were doing. Suddenly it was obvious that they didn’t.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBack home in the US, meanwhile – as in the UK – the perception that banks had been bailed out, while the galaxy brains behind the crisis got off scot-free, sowed the seeds of a corrosive sense of injustice.Similarly, even before the crash, the idea that ever-expanding free trade brings economic benefits was bumping up against the fact that even if that is true in aggregate, for workers across the US rust belt, just as in the UK’s former manufacturing heartlands, it brought deindustrialisation and unemployment.This was fertile ground for Trump’s populist economic message. His first-term China tariffs were, with hindsight, a relatively modest stab at, as he saw it, tilting the playing field back towards the US.Joe Biden did not unwind those tariffs, which went with the grain of geopolitics, as any hopes that economic liberalisation would bring China into the fold of democracies were sadly dashed, and President Xi’s regime took on an increasingly authoritarian bent.Biden also took a muscular approach to the state’s role in the economy, with the billions in grants and loans distributed under the Inflation Reduction Act linked to national priorities of cutting carbon emissions and creating jobs.So the idea that before Trump arrived on the scene, free market US capitalism was motoring along unchallenged is misleading, but the pace at which he is crushing its remaining norms is extraordinary.There is ample ground for legitimate disagreement here: taxpayer stakes in strategic companies are much more common in European economies, for example. Trump may be laying down tracks that future US governments with different priorities could follow.Given that it is so unclear even what kind of economy he is groping towards, the overriding sense for the moment is of radical uncertainty. Friday’s weak US payrolls data, with the unemployment rate close to a four-year high, suggested companies may be responding with caution.Investors appear to have decided to avert their eyes for now, buoyed up by the prospect of Fed rate cuts, and the mega returns of the tech companies. However, with every chaotic week that passes, the risks must increase – and as the UK has learned in the wake of the Liz Truss debacle, economic credibility is quicker to lose than to rebuild. More

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      US justice department reportedly opens criminal inquiry into Fed governor Lisa Cook

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      The US justice department has initiated a criminal investigation into mortgage fraud claims against Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, according to new reports, as a lawsuit she filed against Donald Trump over her firing makes its way through court.Lawyers with the justice department have issued subpoenas for the investigation, according to the Wall Street Journal.Last month, Trump moved to fire Cook over unconfirmed claims that she listed two properties as her primary residence. Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing and Finance Agency and a close ally of Trump, alleged Cook had lied on bank documents and records to obtain a better mortgage rate.Cook, a voting member of the Fed board that sets interest rates, said she has “no intention of being bullied to step down” and that she would “take any questions about my financial history seriously”.In response to Trump’s bid to dismiss her, Cook filed a lawsuit against the president arguing that her removal was unconstitutional and threatened the independence of the Fed. Cook’s lawyers say the firing was “unprecedented and illegal” and that federal law requires showing “cause” for a Fed governor’s removal.“An unsubstantiated allegation about private mortgage applications submitted by Governor Cook prior to her Senate confirmation is not [cause],” her lawyers said in court documents.In court documents, lawyers for Cook suggested that a “clerical error” may be behind the discrepancies found in her mortgage records.Cook was appointed by Joe Biden in 2022 for a 14-year term on the board that was set to end in 2038. She is the first Black woman to be appointed to the board.US district court judge Jia Cobb heard arguments for the lawsuit last week and said she will expedite the case, which is ultimately expected to be taken up by the US supreme court.Trump’s attacks against Cook come against the backdrop of a long fight the White House has waged against the Fed, which has historically been treated as nonpartisan.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionEarlier in the year, Trump threatened to fire the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, for not lowering interest rates, but ultimately walked back his threats after negative responses from investors. Trump also tried to accuse Powell of fraud over renovations at the Fed’s headquarters, which have cost more than anticipated.Abbe Lowell, Cook’s lawyer, told the Journal that “it takes nothing for this DoJ to undertake a new politicized investigation”. The justice department did not immediately respond to the Guardian’s request for comment.This is the third mortgage fraud inquiry the justice department has launched against Democrats and Democratic-appointed officials. Experts have called the pattern a type of “lawfare” as Trump and his allies use their roles to take down other officials.Last month, the US attorney general, Pam Bondi, appointed a special attorney to investigate similar mortgage fraud allegations the White House has levied against California senator Adam Schiff and the New York attorney general, Letitia James. More

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      Why Trump’s firing of the US jobs chief has economists worried

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      As it has for over a hundred years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its latest monthly jobs report on Friday.But the routine monthly update on the health of the US jobs market has been overshadowed by Donald Trump’s firing of the agency’s commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, hours after July’s statistics were released last month.The BLS’s data is parsed by Wall Street, Federal Reserve officials and company bosses across the US. It is also widely watched – and admired – internationally as a barometer of the US economy.Both liberal and conservative economists have criticized Trump’s nominated replacement at the BLS and have raised concerns over what will happen to the agency after the dramatic shake-up. Here’s what we know about what’s happening to the bureau.What does the Bureau of Labor Statistics do?The bureau reports key economic statistics through surveys of employers and prices. Every month, it releases data on the labor market, including the current unemployment rate, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the cost of a basket of goods and services. This data is an important monthly snapshot of the US economy and how it changes over time.Why did Trump fire the bureau’s commissioner?Last month, the bureau announced the US had added just 73,000 jobs in July – far lower than expected – and made big revisions to previously released stats on the labor market in May and June. The number of jobs added to the economy across those two months was dramatically cut by over 250,000.Trump, who spent months boasting about the strength of the economy amid fears about the impact of his trade wars, was furious. “Today’s Job Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad,” he declared on social media.Hours after the numbers were released, Trump announced he was firing McEntarfer and that she would “be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified”.Has Trump firing of the bureau’s commissioner changed its operations?Economists say that Trump’s firing hasn’t changed the bureau, yet. Although the White House has made other job cuts at the BLS, as it did throughout the federal workforce. Since Trump took office, the bureau has seen a hiring freeze and has lost 15% of its workforce.While the bureau said it was downsizing its data collection for CPI, it did not say it was making any significant changes to its survey to employers.Economists say that, for now, the bureau’s operations have largely remained the same. William Watrowski, a longtime leader within the bureau, is currently its acting commissioner. But there are still many questions about the future of the bureau, especially after Trump announced his nomination for McEntarfer’s replacement.Who does Trump want to appoint as the bureau’s new commissioner?Trump has nominated EJ Antoni, chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, as the bureau’s commissioner.Antoni was a contributor to Project 2025 – the Heritage Foundation’s rightwing blueprint for reshaping the US government – and was a vocal critic of the bureau last year, claiming that it manipulated numbers to make them more favorable to Joe Biden and Democrats. Last November, Antoni said on Twitter that Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency needed to “take a chainsaw” to the bureau.“Month after month, the government bean-counters under former-president Biden published overly optimistic estimates for everything from job growth to the size of the economy, only to have those numbers routinely – and quietly – revised down later,” Antoni wrote in May.When announcing his appointment, Trump said Antoni “will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST AND ACCURATE”.Antoni has yet to be confirmed by Congress, and a confirmation date has not been set.Why did the bureau revise its job figures for May and June?Revisions are standard to the bureau’s reporting of the labor market, which is based on surveys to employers throughout the country.Large revisions often happen when employers take more time to complete the bureau’s surveys or revise their own figures due to changing circumstances. Economists have pointed out that uncertainty can lead to larger revisions. The pandemic, for example, saw jobs figures in flux as employers were handling different shutdown laws and the spread of the virus.The impact of Trump’s tariffs on data collection could be a major factor in the revisions seen earlier this year. Businesses have been reporting rollercoaster levels of uncertainty over tariff policy, with sentiment among US small businesses dipping down in the spring before going up again in the summer.“We’ve gone through periods where there were larger revisions before,” said Michael Madowitz, principal economist at the Roosevelt Institute who served on the bureau’s data users advisory committee before it was dissolved by the Trump administration. “This is like so standard, and the idea that it’s what actually set off this big political kerfuffle – this is a really unprecedented political situation.”Has the bureau gone through any political fights before?This isn’t the first time the bureau has been accused of manipulating numbers for politics. In the mid-90s, Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chair at the time, criticized the way the bureau was calculating the CPI. Greenspan argued that the bureau was overestimating CPI, making inflation look higher than it actually was.Thomas Stapleford, a historian at the University of Notre Dame and author of The Cost of Living in America: A Political History of Economic Statistics, pointed out that Greenspan’s criticism led to a series of hearings where the bureau’s methodology came under question and debate. There were congressional hearings and a committee of economists was formed to investigate the methodology.“There’s all this detailed look at digging into the methodology by these outside experts and also testimony from [the bureau],” Stapleford said. “In my mind, if you have questions about the methodology, that’s the way to approach it.”But Trump has pushed the bureau into uncharted waters. Stapleford noted McEntarfer’s firing was the first time the president fired a bureau commissioner.“What the administration, in the eyes of critics, is doing is pushing the numbers in a particular direction. Not for reasons that it can justify publicly in terms of methodology, but simply because it would like a different outcome,” Stapleford said. “That’s a really big deviation from how the bureau has operated in the past.”What does this all mean for the future of the bureau?The commissioner isn’t involved in much of the day-to-day operations of the bureau. A new leader could have major sway over how the bureau collects and reports data in the long term, but there are protections in place, and any significant changes would be subject to public scrutiny.“The commissioner isn’t directly involved in the data calculation. Most of the BLS staff are long-term civil servants. They’ve been there a long time, they have various protections around them,” Stapleford said. “If the new commissioner started to force major methodological changes, I think that would raise a lot of red flags if those changes were controversial.”But even if major changes aren’t made immediately, the fact that Trump has called the bureau’s data into question could risk confusing Americans over whether the data can be trusted.“It takes a whole lot longer to build credibility than to lose. I don’t think any of the experts involved at this point are at all worried about the credibility of BLS’s work, but I know a whole lot less about what’s filtering down to the average person right now,” Madowitz said.As an example, Madowitz pointed out how the science around climate change has been clear.“But having a one-side, other-side public position on what the science says has left the public really confused,” Madowitz said. “It would be really bad if that’s how we decided to understand the economy.” More

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      The Guardian view on Trump and the Fed: independence is no substitute for accountability | Editorial

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      Donald Trump’s attempt to sack the Federal Reserve governor, Lisa Cook, is the familiar authoritarian trick of bending institutions to serve the leader’s immediate ends. The widespread condemnation is deserved. This is not some daring experiment in popular control of monetary policy. Yet what should follow censure is reflection. For the furore over Ms Cook has revealed a peculiar reflex: to defend the Fed’s independence as though it were synonymous with democracy itself.But is independence of the Fed, or central banks generally, really that? Eric Levitz at Vox thinks so, or at least that it is close enough. He argues that Congress sets the Fed’s objectives; independence applies only to the means. Without independence, politicians would be free to game rates for votes – as Richard Nixon did in 1972, leaning on the Fed to juice growth before the election. On this view, independence is not anti-democratic but prudent delegation.The historian Adam Tooze says that argument misses the point. The Fed, he says, is not a neutral technocracy: its regional boards give business elites formal seats at the table, while labour and consumers are marginal or absent. Independence is not independence from politics; it is independence from electoral accountability. To defend this arrangement as democracy’s bulwark, Prof Tooze maintains, is to confuse professional consensus with popular legitimacy.The leftwing economist Michael Roberts goes further. In his blog this week he argues that central bank independence was never really about technocratic efficiency at all. It blossomed in the neoliberal era because it suited finance. He notes that the 1980s and 90s saw a sharp rise in central bank independence while inflation fell. The correlation has been taken as proof of causation. Yet Mr Roberts argues that the decline in prices owed more to slowing global growth and the end of one-off supply shocks.Central banks proved no better than anyone else at forecasting crises: the former Fed chair Alan Greenspan admitted the 2008 crash left him in “a state of shocked disbelief”. Turkey’s recent bout of hyperinflation was blamed on presidential meddling – but Mr Roberts suggests the real culprits were trade deficits, political instability and a collapsing lira. Monetary policy is too blunt an instrument, as many commentators concede, to deal with today’s volatile world. So where does this leave informed opinion? Certainly not with Mr Trump. To replace one form of unaccountability with a demagogic strongman is no gain. The real task is to ask what a democratic politics of central banking would look like.The academic Saule Omarova’s People’s Ledger is one radical answer: treat the Fed as a public utility, offering universal bank accounts and explicitly aligning its balance sheet with public priorities. A National Investment Authority could channel long-term finance towards infrastructure and decarbonisation, rather than leaving investment decisions to Wall Street. Efforts could be made to broaden board representation beyond business, require distributional impact assessments and tighten “for cause” clauses so that presidents cannot hound governors from office on flimsy pretexts.Mr Trump’s assault must be denounced – and Ms Cook defended. But if voters stop there, a deeper lesson will be missed. Central bank independence was never democracy incarnate. At best it was a compromise suited to an earlier era. Today’s challenge is to rebuild monetary authority on firmer, more democratic ground.Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. More

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      in US Politics

      Trump faces key legal test in effort to exert control over Federal Reserve

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      Donald Trump’s battle to exert control over the Federal Reserve faces a key legal test today, with a governor of the central bank seeking a temporary block on his extraordinary attempt to fire her.Lisa Cook sued the US president on Thursday, with her lawyers describing his attempt to dismiss her as “unprecedented and illegal”, and based on “pretextual” allegations.The case is widely expected to be ultimately decided by the supreme court. While it makes it way through the courts, Cook is seeking a temporary restraining order against Trump’s attempt to “immediately” dismiss her from the Fed’s board.A hearing on the motion is set for 10am in Washington on Friday. The case has been assigned to US district judge Jia Cobb, an appointee of Joe Biden.Trump wrote to Cook on Monday, telling her that he was removing her from her position “effective immediately”, based on the allegation from one of his allies that she had obtained a mortgage on a second home she incorrectly described as her primary residence.The president has spent months attacking the Fed, where most policymakers – including Cook – have so far defied his calls for interest rate cuts. He has spoken of rapidly building “a majority” on the central bank’s board, calling into question the future of its longstanding independence from political oversight.Firing Cook, whose term is not due to expire until 2038, would enable Trump to nominate a replacement. But she has argued the president has “no authority” to remove her.“An unsubstantiated allegation about private mortgage applications submitted by Governor Cook prior to her Senate confirmation is not [cause],” her lawyers argued in the complaint. “President Trump’s letter purporting to fire Governor Cook did not cite appropriate cause for removing her from the board of governors.”The White House claimed on Thursday that Cook had been “credibly accused of lying” by the administration. But the accusations are unconfirmed, and her lawyers said Trump and his officials had not explicitly alleged that any error on her mortgage paperwork was intentional.It comes as the Fed gears up to resume rate cuts as soon as next month, albeit not at the scale or pace Trump has repeatedly demanded – and its chair, Jerome Powell, has cautioned that the president’s tariffs and immigration crackdown have disrupted the global economy and knocked the US labor force. More