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      in US Politics

      Another 1.18m Americans file for unemployment as benefits expire

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      Another 1.18 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week as economists worry the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits will lead to a sharp drop-off in household spending and set back the US economy’s near-term recovery.Claims dipped last week after two weeks of rises and were the lowest since March but the latest figure from the department of labor marked the 19th week in a row that claims have topped 1m. Before the coronavirus pandemic gripped the US, the record for weekly claims was 695,000 in October 1982.The figures come ahead of Friday’s monthly snapshot of the job market. Economists expect the unemployment rate to have dipped to 10.6% in July from 11.1% in June, a significant drop but still three times the pre-pandemic level.Americans have been receiving an extra $600 in emergency benefits since March as part of the government’s coronavirus stimulus package. But that agreement expired at the end of last month and Congress is split over a possible extension. About 30 million people have been receiving the extra cash and it has accounted for 15% of all weekly wages paid in the US.The expiration of the benefits without any replacement would likely cause a surge in evictions, hunger and poverty as well as having consequences for the wider economy.According to the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) the knock-on effect of removing that cash from the economy could be severe. The EPI estimated 5mn jobs could be lost by July 2021 if it is cut as consumers are forced to cut back on spending.“The $600 benefit is essential for millions of people to get food, to pay rent, to care for their children, to afford basic necessities. If it is cut off, it will mean a sharp decline in their living standards, an increase in poverty, and completely unnecessary suffering,” Heidi Shierholz, EPI senior economist and director of policy, wrote recently.“The spending generated by that $600 is supporting over 5m jobs. In other words, kill the $600 and you will kill 5m jobs – jobs in every single state,” she wrote.A recent paper from the JP Morgan and The University of Chicago argued that allowing the extra payment to expire could “meaningfully reduce” consumption. Eliminating the benefit “could result in large spending cuts and thus potential negative effects on macroeconomic activity”, the authors concluded.If the $600 payments expire and are nor replaced, the authors project that US consumption will 4.2% – a drop that exceeds the entire 2.9% fall in the Great Recession.🚨 new predictions of effects of alternative UI benefit supplements 🚨The UI supplements have expired. Congress is considering a range of options.What will happen to 1) *consumption*2) *UI replacement rates*Thread w/@JoeVavra @pascaljnoel pic.twitter.com/YdENQzgzBY— Peter Ganong (@p_ganong) July 31, 2020 More

    • 138 Shares119 Views

      in US Politics

      US government shelves survey that painted bleak picture of Covid-19 life

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      The US Census Bureau has suspended a weekly survey that painted a bleak picture of American life during the Covid-19 pandemic, with no sign of when, or if, it will resume publishing the report.The “household pulse survey” tracked various quality-of-life measures, such as food sufficiency, internet access and mental health, and was first conducted by the Census Bureau on 23 April to “quickly and efficiently deploy data collected on how people’s lives have been impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic”, according to the agency’s website.While data such as weekly unemployment claims released by the Department of Labor has shown how many people have lost their jobs, the survey provided a window into the effect the economic downturn is having on the lives of Americans.US households were asked whether they had enough food to eat and internet availability for education, if they had experienced depression or anxiety over the last seven days, and whether they felt they could afford next month’s rent or mortgage payments, among other questions.Over the past three months, the survey painted a desolate picture of what American households are experiencing during the pandemic – a picture that showed little sign of improvement.According to data collected between 16 and 21 July, more than 29 million Americans do not have enough food. Of the 7.2 million American households who did not have sufficient internet availability for educational purposes, 20% were black households and 30% were Hispanic. Over 44 million Americans said they have felt nervous, anxious or on edge nearly every day over the past seven days, while over 28 million experienced symptoms of depression.The Census Bureau described the survey as “experimental”. It was administered via a 20-minute series of online questions. The agency “scientifically selected” addresses to represent the whole US population. People from those addresses received emails with a link to the survey. Administering the survey cost the agency $1.2m, according to NPR.The survey was intended to last 90 days, with the last of the survey’s data from that period being released on 29 July. The Office of Management and Budget, the largest office in the White House, approved for the survey to be administered until the end of July. It is unclear whether the OMB will agree to let the survey continue.“The Census Bureau is working closely with the OMB to determine the possibility for a second phase of the household pulse survey. We will announce any details as soon as they are available,” a spokesperson for the agency wrote in an email to the Guardian.The bureau is currently hard at work trying to administer its once-in-a-decade census, trying to count everybody in the US amid the pandemic.The bureau has also been subject to political pressure, recently announcing it will be shortening the census deadline. Though the bureau had in April asked Congress to extend its deadline, it offered no explanation for the reversal.The move is expected to lead to an undercount of Americans, particularly communities of color and poorer Americans. More

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      in US Politics

      The Guardian view on delaying elections: it’s what autocrats do | Editorial

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      Donald Trump’s suggestion that the 2020 US election could be crooked is a challenge to democracy itself Postponing elections is what autocracies do. On Friday, Hong Kong’s leader, Carrie Lam, announced a delay to September’s planned legislative council (LegCo) elections. Ms Lam cited the coronavirus public health emergency as her justification. Yet the real reason is Hong Kong’s political emergency. Hong Kong’s elections have been postponed because even with its very limited democracy, Ms Lam and the Chinese government are afraid the voters will choose a LegCo with greater sympathy for the protests.In spite of their very different systems, Donald Trump’s reasons for proposing the postponement of November’s US presidential election are essentially the same. Mr Trump also cites the pandemic. But his real motives are also political. He thinks he is losing the campaign. He thinks Joe Biden will be elected in November. He wants to stop him if he can, by fair means or foul. And he wants to discredit his own defeat. Continue reading… More

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      in Elections

      Trump declares US economy is 'roaring back', despite record Covid-19 cases – video

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      Play Video 1:28 Donald Trump has declared the US economy is ‘roaring back’ after news of a fall in unemployment nationwide. The results come as states across the country have been gradually lifting Covid-19 restrictions. While 4.8m jobs were added in June, parts of the country have also experienced record numbers of new coronavirus cases […] More