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      US House Republicans pitch short-term spending deal as shutdown looms

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      With a possible partial US government shutdown looming in two weeks, Kevin McCarthy on Sunday said he would bring a defense spending bill to a vote “win or lose” this week, despite resistance from hardline fellow Republicans.The House speaker is struggling to bring fiscal 2024 spending legislation to the floor, with Republicans fractured by conservative demands for spending to be cut to a 2022 level of $1.47tn – $120bn below the spending on which McCarthy agreed with Joe Biden in May.Late on Sunday, members of the hardline House Freedom Caucus and the more moderate Main Street Caucus announced a deal on a short-term stopgap bill to keep the government open until 31 October, but with a spending cut of more than 8% on agencies apart from the defense and veterans affairs departments.The measure, which is unlikely to become law, also includes conservative restrictions on immigration and the US border with Mexico.Republicans have said that such a deal could allow the House to move forward on the defense spending bill this week.But it was unclear whether the measure had sufficient Republican support to pass the chamber. The spending cuts were also likely to draw opposition from Democrats in the House and Senate, who reject the immigration provisions.Republicans hold a narrow 221-212 majority in the chamber as they bicker over spending and pursue a new impeachment drive against Joe Biden while the United States faces a possible fourth partial government shutdown in a decade.McCarthy has begun to face calls for floor action seeking his ouster from hardline conservatives and others who have accused him of failing to keep promises he made to become speaker in January after a revolt from some of the most conservative Republicans in the House.The Republican-controlled House and Democratic-led Senate have until 1 October to avoid a partial shutdown by enacting appropriations bills that Biden, a Democrat, can sign into law, or by passing a short-term stopgap spending measure to give lawmakers more time for debate.McCarthy signaled a tougher stand with hardliners, telling the Fox News Sunday Morning Futures program that he would bring the stalled defense bill to the floor this week. The House last week postponed a vote on beginning debate on the defense appropriations bill due to opposition from the hardliners.“We’ll bring it to the floor, win or lose, and show the American public who’s for the department of defense, who’s for our military,” McCarthy said.McCarthy also said he wants to make sure there is no shutdown on 1 October, saying: “A shutdown would only give strength to the Democrats.”McCarthy has held closed-door discussions over the weekend aimed at overcoming a roadblock by the conservative hardliners to spending legislation. They want assurances that legislation will include their deep spending cuts, as well as conservative policy priorities including provisions related to tighter border security that are unlikely to secure Democratic votes.“We made some good progress,” McCarthy said.Elise Stefanik, the number four House Republican, told the Fox News Sunday program that she was optimistic about moving forward on appropriations after closed-door discussions.But Republican representative Nancy Mace told ABC’s This Week that she expects a shutdown and did not rule out support for a vote to oust McCarthy’s ouster. Mace complained that the speaker has not made good on promises to her involving action on women’s issues and gun violence.“Everything’s on the table at this point for me,” Mace said.Mace played down the consequences of a shutdown, saying much of the government would remain in operation and that the hiatus would give government workers time off with back pay at a later date.Democratic former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a shutdown would risk harming the most vulnerable members of society who depend on government assistance.“We’re talking about diminishing even something as simple and fundamental as feeding the children,” Pelosi told MSNBC. “We have to try to avoid it.“ More

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      Does Wile E Coyote explain US voters’ gloom amid buoyant economy?

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      Strolling past the colorfully restored Victorian homes of the Fourth Ward, watching the barman hand-carve blocks of ice for old fashioneds at the jam-packed bar of The Crunkleton, it’s easy to fall for Charlotte’s ample southern charms. And yet, people are not happy – at least according to the polls.Consumer sentiment in North Carolina is now lower than it was at the height of the pandemic, according to High Point University’s confidence tracker. “People are just not feeling particularly good,” said Martin Kifer, director of the university’s survey research center.North Carolina is not alone. Official figures suggest the US pulled off an astonishing recovery from the Covid pandemic and recession.More than 20 million people in the US lost their jobs in April 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic shuttered the world’s largest economy. The unemployment rate rose to 14.7%. But the rebound was just as dramatic. Unemployment has hovered near 50-year lows since January 2022 and is now 3.8%. In North Carolina, it’s just 3.3%. More than 100 people are moving to the city every day.But as an exclusive Guardian/Harris Poll survey found this week, two-thirds (68%) of Americans report it’s difficult to be happy about positive economic news when they feel financially squeezed each month.Across the country, poll after poll shows people are not feeling it. That’s not good news for the Biden administration, particularly in a potential swing state where the perceived success – or failure – of “Bidenomics”, as Biden has dubbed his economic strategy, will be one of the key issues in next year’s election.The election is still a way out, and Biden has proven pollsters wrong in the past. Nevertheless, the economy – or voters’ perception of it – will be a defining issue in one of the most consequential elections in US history.Americans are deeply divided on the economy. The Harris poll shows over half (53%) of Americans believe the economy is getting worse. Some 72% of Republicans share that view compared with 32% of Democrats. But the unhappiness runs deep on both sides. Only a third of Democrats believe that the economy is getting better.Even when Americans say they are doing OK financially, they believe the economy is in trouble. According to the Federal Reserve’s annual survey of economic wellbeing, 73% of households said that they were “at least doing OK financially” at the end of 2022. In 2019, that figure was 75% of households. But back then, 50% said the national economy was good or excellent. By 2022, that number had fallen to just 18%.Some heavyweight voices share the gloom. Both the former Treasury secretary Larry Summers and Bill Dudley, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, have speculated that having shot out of the pandemic like a coyote chasing a roadrunner, the US may be in a “Wile E Coyote” economy and, like Warner Brother’s cartoon canine, the US economy may be heading off a cliff. “Falling back to earth will not be a pleasant experience,” Dudley has warned.Partisanship explains much of the seeming disconnect between economic data and sentiment. But not all of it. Large forces are reshaping the US economy and may explain the nation’s vertigo.Many low-wage workers, have been living with that fear of falling for a long time.Ieisha Franceis’s wages have shot up from $12.50 to $17 since the Durham, North Carolina, resident made the shift from working in fast food to a job at a senior living facility. Wages are – finally – running ahead of inflation overall but for Franceis, “everything looks the same. Inflation’s not gone down, it’s just not going up,” she said. “These days $17 an hour is looking a lot like $12.50,” said the low-wage activist.Franceis used to buy her family’s side dishes, boxes of macaroni and cheese, mashed potato, at Dollar General. The Kraft Macaroni and Cheese (“the good stuff”) has gone. “Now they only carry a cheaper brand with the powdered cheese.” At the average grocery store, that Kraft Mac and Cheese is over $2.“The Dollar Tree went from everything being $1 to everything being $1.25. Now they even have a $5 section and a $10 section. Huh? This was a dollar store,” she said. “Bidenomics” means little to Franceis. “What we need is higher wages and more unions,” she said.Even entrepreneurs are finding the new, post-Covid economy taxing.Cocktail queen Tamu Curtis saw her business boom during lockdown. A Los Angeles transplant, she started giving cocktail classes online and saved enough to open her bricks-and-mortar shop. The Cocktailery – nestled between an Anthropologie and Warby Parker inside an old streetcar station – opened in September 2021 when the vaccines started rolling out. “I thought, OK everybody is going to run and get the vaccines. We are saved! Of course, it didn’t work out that way,” she said ruefully. “That was a plot twist.”Up and running now for over a year, business has been strange. “This has been the craziest summer. It’s so slow,” she said.Retail sales have collapsed but classes have boomed. “People will spend money on experiences. On travel. We spent two years filling our houses with stuff. Maybe we just don’t need that any more.”On top of that, she said, “inflation is killing me.” An order of cocktail bitters that used to cost her $700 shot up to $1,500. “There’s only so much you can pass on. I can’t sell a bitter for $42. There’s a max people will pay.”At the same time, rent is high and financing is getting tougher as interest rates rise. “It’s difficult,” she said. And more so for a minority, woman-owned business. She hasn’t been able to get a traditional bank loan yet or a line of credit from her bank, Charlotte-based Bank of America. “Now the banks aren’t lending the way they were.”Post-Covid has been an easier ride for other local business people but still, existential questions remain, ones that may point to a wider national malaise.Desmond Wiggan and his partner Aubrey Yeboah launched their business, BatteryXchange, in 2019, just before the pandemic. The company sets up battery charging stations for mobile devices and the idea had originally been to target people at conferences or out on the town. “Suddenly there were no people,” said Wiggan.BatteryXChange retooled and now rents its equipment to healthcare providers and others who use the service to help keep their customers online. It worked and business is booming, as is Wiggan’s profile. He has just returned from a business symposium on swanky Martha’s Vineyard. A copy of Propel, a local Black business magazine, sits on his office table. Wiggan’s headshot is above a message from Michelle Obama: “Success isn’t about how much money you make, it’s about the difference you make.”But Wiggan has some wider concerns. He spent two years living in China and has seen firsthand that other countries think on a longer timescale. Back in the US, he said, it’s all about the next election cycle. On top of that another likely hot election issue worries him. “The age gap of our leaders. They are old. The torch has got to be passed.“These other countries are starting to sniff us out,” he said. Foreign students were getting their education in the US then going home because they see their country looking to the future, he said. “They are thinking 2060 not every four, eight years when we go back and forth.”****Why people feel so bad about an economy that – technically – appears strong is a question that is vexing not just the White House but Nobel economic laureates. Historians will have a better answer. For now, the reasons look manifold.As HPU’s Kifer points out “the perception of the economy is not the economy.” The disconnect between the official figures and how people feel may be temporary. Nor is it unusual for the hangover of a recession to outlast what looks like the beginning of a recovery. High Point’s own consumer confidence index started in 2010, two years after the peak of the 2008/2009 recession. It wasn’t until September 2011 that confidence started rising.The US’s pandemic recession began in February 2020 and ended two months later, making it the shortest recession on record. The body blow it dealt to confidence is, however, proving hard to shift. And things are different this time. For one, there is relatively high inflation – something never directly experienced by Americans under 40. Slowing increases have done little to calm people’s nerves and most people in North Carolina expect inflation to get worse next year, according to another HPU poll.The mood of economic despondency is fueled by other fires, too, illustrated by life in North Carolina and felt across the country.Politics plays a huge role. The University of Michigan’s national consumer confidence index shows Republican confidence soared under Trump and dropped under Biden while Democrats’ did the opposite.But it’s not the only factor. While people may not have lost their jobs, America’s middle class has lost $2tn in wealth since 2020 thanks to inflation and the fastest increase in interest rates since the 1980s, according to data compiled by economists at the University of California, Berkeley.That fall comes after outsized gains from stimulus cheques, rising house prices and other assets for those who rode out the pandemic with little financial cost. Still, the psychological pain of losing is about twice the pleasure of winning, according to Nobel-winning psychologist and economist Daniel Kahneman. Losses loom larger than gains.Then there are the epochal issues of our day – ones that will spread far beyond North Carolina and the Biden presidency.North Carolina has been voted the best state for business for two consecutive years and business is still good. But there are signs of a slowdown. According to the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance, the Charlotte area expects businesses to invest $2.3bn in the region this year and create 7,200 jobs. That’s down from $8bn in investment and 20,000 jobs last year.Uncertainty is a large part of that drop, said Danny Chavez, chief business recruitment officer of the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance. Concerns about the direction of interest rates and political change are part of it – businesses waiting to see what happens next year, a natural part of the cycle. There is also something more.The number of jobs created per investment is also decreasing as tech takes jobs. Financial services and manufacturing are extremely important to the region. They remain so, said Chavez. “But in terms of jobs, both those industries are highly vulnerable to automation and AI,” he said.While Charlotte is better positioned than most to ride out that change, Chavez said the region – and the rest of the US – is also increasingly competing with global players. India and China are challenging the US’s rank as the world’s largest economy.Biden’s economic plans are playing to the long term and America has proved resilient to big shocks before. The president also has a track record of beating expectations. If hiring stays steady and inflation keeps receding, maybe Americans will hear the good news soon. That may or may not happen before the 2024 election.But the polls may also reflect a wider anxiety about the existential challenges the US (and other economies) face. Perhaps those challenges explain some of the national mood. It’s hard to measure existential dread.Longer term, neither Bidenomics – nor Trumponomics – are likely to fix America’s broken healthcare and childcare systems or the climate crisis. Nor do they offer clear solutions to the global trade winds that threaten American exceptionalism or the challenges presented by AI and automation.Little wonder then that so many in the US feel like Wile E Coyote, running off the cliff, treading air, waiting for the fall. More

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      US economy going strong under Biden – Americans don’t believe it

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      Americans do not trust the government’s economic news – or the media’s reporting of it – according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian that presents the White House with a major hurdle as it pushes Biden’s economic record ahead of next year’s election.The US has roared back from the Covid recession by official measures. But two-thirds of Americans are unhappy about the economy despite consistent reports that inflation is easing and unemployment is close to a 50-year low. And the poll suggests many are unaware of or don’t believe the positive economic news the government has reported.The results illustrate a dramatic political split on economic views – with Republicans far more pessimistic than Democrats. But unhappiness about the economy is widespread.
      Two-thirds of respondents (68%) reported it’s difficult to be happy about positive economic news when they feel financially squeezed each month (Republicans: 69%, Democrats: 68%).
      Two-thirds of Americans (65%) believe that the economy is worse than the media makes it out to be rather than better (35%).
      In August the unemployment rate was 3.8%, close to a 50-year low. But the poll found that 51% wrongly believe that unemployment is nearing a 50-year high rather than those who believe it’s actually low (49%).
      The lack of confidence in the economy has many academics and politicians puzzled. Some have blamed the US’s polarized politics and this was illustrated in the poll. But Harris’s data also shows that fears are widespread – and reinforced by disbelief of or ignorance about official figures and a mistrust of the media’s reporting of them.Some 82% of Republicans and 66% of independents believe the economy is worse than the media’s portrayal. But nearly half of Democrats (49%) also said the media viewed the economy too favorably.Overall, the poll found widespread despondency about the state of the economy. More than half of Americans (53%) believe the economy is getting worse instead of better or staying the same. Republicans and independents are more likely to think it’s getting worse (72% and 58%, respectively, v Democrats: 32%), while more Democrats think it’s getting better (32% v Republicans: 8%, independents: 13%).The results paint a difficult picture for Joe Biden, who is making “Bidenomics” – his economic policy record – a central plank of his re-election platform.The views of those familiar with Bidenomics showed a perhaps unsurprising party split. Some 60% of Democrats believe his plans are improving the US economy overall compared with 12% of Republicans.There is a widespread belief that Bidenomics is good in theory but isn’t being implemented well – something both Democrats and Republicans agree with (62% v 58%).Biden supporters have just launched a $13m advertising campaign extolling the president’s economic achievements, which include a landmark $1.2tn infrastructure and climate bill, massive investment in domestic microchips production and green energy solutions. His legislative actions are predicted to create 1.5m jobs per year for the next decade.That message may be hard to sell given the widespread disbelief of and ignorance about the health of the US economy highlighted by the poll.As well as being wrong about the unemployment data, respondents were unaware of, or chose to mischaracterize, other major economic data points.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe widest measure of economic growth – gross domestic product – increased at a 2.1% annualized rate last quarter and has been steadily improving since the Covid downturn. But more respondents (59%) believe that the US economy is shrinking this year than those who believe it is growing (41%). More Republicans (72%) and independents (63%) believe the economy is shrinking than do Democrats. But still, a sizeable 44% of Democrats believe the economy is shrinking.The S&P 500 stock market index is up 16% so far this year. But 59% of respondents wrongly said they believe the S&P is down for the year compared with those who said they believe it is up (41%). The majority of all those asked said the S&P was down whether Republican (66%), independent (60%) or Democrat (52%).US wages are, finally, growing faster than inflation. But 75% of those polled wrongfully believe that wages aren’t keeping up with inflation. That view is held by the majority of Republicans (84%), independents (75%) and Democrats (67%).There was some good news for Biden. The poll found that 75% of respondents support at least one of the four main branches of Bidenomics: improving infrastructure, attracting high-tech electronics manufacturing, building clean energy manufacturing facilities and attracting more high-paying union jobs.Still, 51% of Americans believe that government spending under the current administration is having a negative impact on the US economy (Republicans: 72%, independents: 54%, Democrats: 30%) rather than a positive impact (21%) or no impact (28%). And only just over a third of Democrats (35%) believe it’s having a positive impact (Republicans: 11%, independents: 16%).“All these perceptual-reality gaps underscore Biden’s difficulty in claiming credit for economic gains. Americans either view the economy through their politics or aren’t feeling it in real life, or both,” said John Gerzema, the CEO of Harris Poll.
      This survey was conducted online within the US by the Harris Poll from 1 to 3 September among a nationally representative sample of 2,055 US adults, where 1,063 were familiar with Bidenomics. More

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      US inflation in August rose to 3.7% amid sharp increase in energy prices

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      US inflation in August rose for the first time since June 2022, rising to 3.7% as a sharp increase in energy prices pushed prices up toward the end of the summer.Growth in prices still remains far below the decades-high inflation rates that were seen last summer, when the rate peaked at 9.1% in June. Still, an increase in inflation means the US economy is further from the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2% and will probably make officials consider pushing interest rates up later this year.The price of energy commodities, including gas and oil, jumped up 10.5% over the last month, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data, which measures the prices of a basket of goods and services. Gas prices ticked up in August as Russia and Saudi Arabia continued aggressive cuts in supply, bringing the price of crude oil to 10-month high at $91 a barrel. Higher gas prices accounted for more than half of the increase in the overall inflation rate.Meanwhile core inflation, which measures the price of goods and services minus the volatile energy and food industries, actually decreased in August to 4.3%, down from 4.7% in July, reflecting the impact higher energy prices are having on the overall inflation rate.Even with the decrease in core inflation, which has been higher and going down at a slower rate than the 12-month inflation rate, inflation still remains far above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.Though price decreases have been seen in used cars and medical care services over the last few months, home prices have hit a near-record high in June, keeping core inflation stubbornly high. The median home price hit $413,80, the second-highest price ever, according to the National Association of Realtors. Home prices cooled slightly to $406,700 in July, but home prices still remain 7.3% higher than a year earlier.Even with inflation slightly up, the Fed is on track to keep interest rates the same at their next board meeting on 20 September. Economists say the Fed has had a pause planned for the meeting for a while as many officials say the economy has yet to feel the full effects of interest rates, which are at a 22-year high at 5.25% to 5.5%.But as the health of the economy continues to be hard to pin down – job growth has remained relatively stable even amid high interest rates, but inflation is still far from 2% – the Fed could still raise interest rates at future meetings. Future interest rate increases could introduce more volatility to the US economy, and potentially trigger a recession, though the Fed’s mission to bring down inflation has yet to bear dramatic consequences.The Fed chair, Jerome Powell, said last month that officials were aware of the precarity, saying they will “proceed carefully” as they decide what to do with interest rates. Powell has said the overall decline in inflation has been a “welcome development”, but it still remains high.“We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective,” he said. More

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      From abortion to January 6: where each Republican candidate in the debate stands on big issues

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      Republicans vying for the 2024 party nomination are set to take the stage in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Wednesday night for the first debate of the primary season.The candidates will certainly throw punches at each other and at Donald Trump, who has a significant lead in polls but is skipping the debate. But it’s also a chance for each candidate to present their policy agenda and voice their stance on key voter issues such as abortion and aid to Ukraine.Here’s where each candidate in Wednesday’s debate stands on issues such as abortion, immigration, the economy and continued aid to Ukraine.Ron DeSantisAbortion: DeSantis has supported bills restricting access to abortion – including a six-week ban in his own state of Florida – but has stopped short of saying he would support a federal ban.Economy: In a recently released economic plan, DeSantis said he would cut individual taxes and slash government spending. He also pushed for “American energy independence” and a rollback of electric vehicles.Immigration: As governor, DeSantis has enacted some of the country’s strictest laws against undocumented immigrants, including asking hospital patients to prove their legal status. He also made the controversial move to use public funds to send newly arrived migrants to Martha’s Vineyard in a political stunt. As president, he said he would eliminate the visa lottery and limit “unskilled immigration”.Foreign policy: He opposes additional US involvement in Ukraine and has pledged to reduce economic ties with “communist China” and said the US would no longer “kowtow to Wall Street”.January 6: DeSantis said it was “unfortunate” but “not an insurrection”.More: The current governor of Florida and a former congressman was widely expected to be Trump’s main primary challenger. But his favorability among Republicans has taken many hits, starting with a glitchy Twitter Spaces event hosted by Elon Musk. He has frequently touted his opposition to gender-affirming care for trans people and other public health measures such as mask mandates.Vivek RamaswamyAbortion: Ramaswamy told a crowd at the Iowa State Fair he is “unapologetically pro-life”. But his campaign earlier confirmed he would not back a national abortion ban.Economy: The biotech entrepreneur wants to “unshackle” the energy sector, saying the US should abandon its climate goals to drive down energy costs and boost its GDP. He is also in favor of some corporate and individual tax cuts.Immigration: Ramaswamy said he wants to deport “universally” and end birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants, who would then be required to apply to become a citizen.Foreign policy: Ramaswamy has criticized US aid to Ukraine, saying it is strengthening Russia’s alliance with China.January 6: Ramaswamy condemned Trump the week after the January 6 attack but has walked back his criticism since then. Responding to a question for an Atlantic profile about what truly happened that day, Ramaswamy said: “I don’t know.” He has defended ex-president Trump across his four indictments.More: Time magazine labeled Ramaswamy a “breakout candidate”. The political outsider has steadily climbed the polls since launching his long-shot bid as an “anti-woke” patriot.Tim ScottAbortion: Scott, an evangelical Christian, is staunchly anti-abortion and said he would support a national 15-week ban.Economy: Scott supports tax cuts and stronger economic competition with China. As a senator, Scott championed legislation establishing “opportunity zones”, which are meant to increase economic development in low-income areas by incentivizing private investment, though critics say residents may not benefit from gentrification.Immigration: He is in favor of a wall along the US southern border to curb illegal migration and drug trafficking.Foreign policy: He broadly supports continued US aid to Ukraine and said Biden has not done enough. But some conservatives think he’s soft on China.January 6: Scott said he doesn’t believe the 2020 election was stolen and does not blame Trump for the violence at the Capitol.More: The South Carolina senator, who is the only Black Republican in the Senate, is an outspoken critic when it comes to teaching kids about race and gender in schools and has said: “America is not a racist country.”Nikki HaleyAbortion: The only woman on the debate stage, Haley is anti-abortion but has also called a federal abortion ban “unrealistic”.Economy: Haley wrote in an op-ed that she opposes raising the national debt limit and would “veto spending bills that don’t put America on track to reach pre-pandemic spending levels”.Foreign policy: The former US ambassador to the United Nations under Trump, Haley has labeled the Chinese Communist party an “enemy” and criticized Trump for trying to befriend the Chinese president, Xi Jinping.Immigration: Haley has vowed to tighten security at the US-Mexico border and add 25,000 patrol agents, as well as require companies to verify employees’ status online – which she signed into law in South Carolina as governor.January 6: Haley has called January 6 a “terrible day” and said Trump “went down a path that he shouldn’t have” in an interview with Politico.Chris ChristieAbortion: He has said he would not support a federal abortion ban.Economy: The former New Jersey governor has targeted “excessive government spending” as the reason for inflation and floated cuts to social security, including Medicare.Foreign policy: Christie, who has aligned himself with the hawkish, tough-on-China-and-Russia camp, visited the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in a surprise trip earlier this month to affirm his support for continued US aid.Immigration: Christie said “immigrants are pouring over the border” in an attack against Trump’s campaign promise to build a border wall.January 6: Christie, who was in the running to be Trump’s VP after dropping out of the 2016 presidential race, is now Trump’s loudest critic. He broke with Trump over the January 6 Capitol attack, calling Trump a “coward” for not joining rioters.Mike PenceAbortion: The former vice-president, an evangelical Christian, is the loudest anti-abortion candidate and has condemned his opponents for refusing to back a six-week abortion ban.Economy: Pence has said his top priority is boosting the US economy and has called on the Fed to ditch its dual mandate – keeping employment high and inflation low – to focus solely on reducing inflation. He has also advocated for cutting social security benefits.Foreign policy: Pence has advocated for continued US aid to Ukraine and met with Volodymyr Zelenskiy during a surprise visit in June.Immigration: He has blasted the Biden administration’s immigration policy, describing a “stampede” from Central and South America, and has vowed to finish the border wall that began under Trump.January 6: Pence has campaigned heavily on his refusal to aid Trump in his effort to stop the certification of electoral results and has repeatedly condemned his ex-boss for his role in the Capitol attack.Doug BurgumAbortion: Burgum signed a law banning nearly all abortions in North Dakota but said he would not support a national ban.Economy: The governor of North Dakota, who is also a wealthy businessman, has touted North Dakota’s record as an energy-producing state and said he would prioritize growing the country’s tech and energy sectors.Foreign policy: Winning the “cold war with China” is a key pillar of Burgum’s message to voters.Immigration: Burgum said Biden hasn’t done enough to secure the US-southern border and supports stricter restrictions on migration.January 6: Burgum called for a stop to the violence at the Capitol on January 6 but said he thinks it’s time to “move on”.Asa HutchinsonAbortion: As governor of Arkansas, Hutchinson signed a near-total abortion ban and said he would support a national ban.Economy: He has floated extreme measures to balance the federal budget and reduce debt including cutting the federal non-military workforce by 10%.Immigration: Hutchinson supports harsh restrictions on immigration.Foreign policy: He said he would not cut economic ties with China but has advocated for more aggressive action to counter China’s threat against Taiwan. Politico describes Hutchinson’s foreign policy as a “compassionate internationalism” of the past.January 6: He said January 6 “disqualifies” Trump from running for president. More

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      Biden choice of economic adviser shows focus on education ahead of 2024 bid

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      Joe Biden is tapping C Kirabo Jackson, a labor economist whose research advocates robust public spending on schools, to fill out the president’s three-member Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), according to a White House official.The selection suggests public education will be a key area of focus for Biden’s brain-trust ahead of a 2024 re-election bid expected to turn on the strength of the economy. The position does not require Senate confirmation.Jackson, who will take a leave from Northwestern University, where the professor focused on economics, education and public policy, is best known for research on what draws good teachers to certain schools as well as other data showing that raising school spending increases students’ future wages.The US unemployment rate is at 3.5%, and the economy grew at a 2.4% rate last quarter. Meanwhile, consumer prices are rising at a 3.2% annual clip.While the Biden administration sees those numbers as a positive sign of a move to steadier momentum with slower growth and inflation, voters are largely dissatisfied with Biden’s handling of the economy, creating a challenge for his economic policymakers.Biden has argued that more US government investment in early childhood education programs like preschool for three- and four-year-olds would lift wages and decrease poverty, views that agree with some of Jackson’s own research.But the president’s efforts to dramatically increase such funding have consistently failed to win sufficient support in Congress.Jackson’s pick also comes as the Biden administration is thinking through how to boost lagging educational performance since the Covid-19 pandemic.Lengthy public school closures, staffing shortages and other issues during the pandemic are believed to have contributed to the sharp declines registered in US children’s reading and mathematics test scores since 2020.Cecilia Rouse, the Princeton University economist who used to be Biden’s CEA chair, said Jackson’s work would be critical given the country’s biggest long-term economic challenges, including an ageing workforce, declining fertility rates, a lack of childcare and learning loss.“Coming out of this pandemic, one of the big consequences that we will be addressing for some time is the learning loss,” she said. The choice of Jackson “may signal that the administration is looking for creative ways to address what can be a huge loss in human capital for this country for quite some time”. More

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      Biden’s China investment ban: who’s targeted and what does it mean for the 2024 US election?

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      Joe Biden has moved to restrict US investment in Chinese technology, signing an executive order which focuses on a few, sensitive hi-tech sectors including semiconductors, quantum computing and artificial intelligence (AI).It is the latest in a series of measures taken by the US to restrict China’s access to the most advanced technology and comes as the president has embarked on a multi-state tour of the south-west to tout his plans to revive American manufacturing after decades of decline.The restrictions are expected to take effect next year – and come at a sensitive time in the US-China relationship. The Biden administration has launched diplomatic overtures to Beijing in recent months, seeking to mend ties after a series of incidents, while still attempting to bolster its position against China on military, economic and technological fronts.What are the latest restrictions?As a result of previous Biden administration measures, the US already bans or restricts the export to China of many of the technologies covered in these new measures. The aim of Wednesday’s executive order is to prevent US funds from helping China build its own domestic capabilities, which could undermine the existing export controls.Under the executive order, the US Treasury has been directed to regulate certain US investments in semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum computing and artificial intelligence.China, Hong Kong and Macau are listed as the “countries of concern”, but a senior Biden official has told Reuters other countries could be added in the future.The rules are not retroactive and apply to to future investments, with officials saying the goal is to regulate investments in areas that could give China military and intelligence advantages.Britain and the European Union have signalled their intention to move along similar lines, and the Group of Seven advanced economies agreed in June that restrictions on outbound investments should be part of an overall toolkit.Biden’s plan has been criticised by Republicans, many of whom say it does not go far enough.Republican Senator Marco Rubio has called it “almost laughable”, adding that the plan is “riddled with loopholes … and fails to include industries China’s government deems critical”, he said.How has China reacted?A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington said the White House had ignored “China’s repeated expression of deep concerns” about the plan.The embassy warned that it would affect more than 70,000 US companies that do business in China, hurting both Chinese and American businesses.The country’s commerce ministry said it reserved the right to take countermeasures and encouraged the US to respect the laws of market economy and the principle of fair competition.What part do these measures play in Biden’s re-election bid?As the executive order was made public, Biden was speaking in New Mexico, touting his government’s success in boosting manufacturing jobs in the renewable energy sector.“Where’s it written that America can’t lead the world again in manufacturing? Because we’re going to do just that,” Biden said at the groundbreaking of a new factory manufacturing wind turbine towers in the city of Belon.“Instead of exporting American jobs, we’re creating American jobs and we’re exporting American products,” he added.However, polling shows that for many, the perception of the president’s economic policies – “Bidenomics” as his communications team likes to call them – are at odds with a range of positive indicators. US inflation has dropped to the lowest levels since 2021 and the administration has repeatedly touted months of consistent jobs growth; despite this though multiple polls show that only a minority of Americans support Biden’s handling of the economy.The cornerstone of Biden’s refreshed bid to voters are two major bills he shepherded through Congress and signed into law a year ago: the Chips and Science Act – which pumps huge funding into semiconductor manufacturing, research and development – and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a law for megaprojects boosting green investment.The chips act aims to further freeze China’s semiconductor industry in place, while pouring billions of dollars in subsidies into the US chip industry.Both laws, along with the growing restrictions on Chinese industry, are positioned to win back portions of the working-class vote who felt left behind by globalisation and turned to Donald Trump at previous elections.What’s next?The ban is a step in a broad and ongoing push to undermine China’s efforts to achieve independence in a number of technological areas, in particular the development of advanced semiconductors.In recent months, the US government has signalled it still wants to close some loopholes Chinese businesses are using to get their hands on the most advanced semiconductors.In response to previous chip bans, Nvidia one of the world’s leading chip companies, has started offering a less advanced chip, the A800, to Chinese buyers. But new curbs being considered by Washington would restrict even those products.In possible anticipation of such a move China’s tech giants – including Baidu, TikTok-owner ByteDance, Tencent and Alibaba – have made orders worth $1bn to acquire about 100,000 A800 processors from the Nvidia to be delivered this year, the Financial Times has reported.The Chinese groups had also bought a further $4bn worth of graphics processing units to be delivered in 2024, according to the report.Reuters and Agence France-Presse contributed to this report More

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      Why aren’t Americans happier about the economy? | Robert Reich

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      It’s a Goldilocks economy – not too hot to spur inflation, not too cool to invite recession.On Friday, the labor department announced that the US economy added 209,000 jobs in June.It was the 30th consecutive month of job gains. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.6%Last Thursday we learned that the US economy grew at an annualized 2% rate in the first quarter of this year. That’s well above economists’ expectations of around 1.4%.But if you haven’t received this news, you’re not alone. Good economic news doesn’t make it through the negative sludge of Fox News or Newsmax. It barely gets through the mainstream media.You want some additional good news? In the four years of Donald Trump’s administration, total investment on manufacturing facilities grew by 5%. During the first two years of Biden’s administration, manufacturing investment more than doubled.This has created about 800,000 manufacturing jobs.These remarkable results are the outcome of Biden policies – the Inflation Reduction Act and its green technology provisions, the infrastructure bill and the Chips Act.What about inflation? Yes, Biden’s stimulative spending did boost prices. But the big news that’s not getting through to most Americans is that inflation has been dropping. It has declined significantly from its mid-2022 highs above 9%.Consumer prices are now rising by about 4.9% annually – still a problem but not nearly the problem it was.Much of the remaining inflation is due to outsized corporate profit margins. The IMF recently found that almost half the increase in Europe’s inflation over the past two years is due to rising corporate profits.I wish Biden would make an issue of those profit margins. They’re enriching those at the top while imposing a big penalty on everyone else.And wages? For a while, real (adjusted for inflation) wages were falling, but now that inflation is subsiding, real wages are picking up again.So why do so many Americans continue to think the economy is awful?According to the Gallup economic confidence index, Americans haven’t felt this bad about the economy since the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index is similarly downbeat.In an NBC News survey conducted a few weeks ago, at least 74% of Americans said the country is on the wrong track.Given all this, it’s not surprising that Joe Biden’s approval numbers have been stuck at around 43%.History shows that incumbent presidents tend not to be re-elected when about 70% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track. (They tend to win when fewer than half of Americans think that.)So, the obvious question is, why are Americans feeling so bad about an economy that’s actually damned good?One reason, I think, is a general sense of dread – centering on Trump, DeSantis and Republican lawmakers in general – that seems to affect everything else. (I don’t know about you, but I sometimes have difficulty getting to sleep, worried about the rise of authoritarian fascism in America.)Add in the effects of the climate crisis, and you get more gloom. (This week, the earth’s average temperature reached the highest on record.) A recent study found that headlines have grown starkly more negative.Then, too, many of us are still suffering from pandemic-related PTSD.But I think the deeper reason Americans don’t feel very good about the economy is that is that the vast number of working non-college grads – some two-thirds of the adult US population – are still bogged down in dead-end jobs lacking any economic security, while struggling with many costs (such as housing, childcare and education) that continue to soar.In other words, the economy is getting better overall – but overall has become a less useful gauge of wellbeing as the rich get richer, the poor grow poorer, and the working middle is under worsening siege.
      Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His new book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com More