US economy

Subterms

    More stories

    • 138 Shares199 Views

      in US Politics

      Senior Trump officials give conflicting lines on tariffs after markets turmoil

      by

      Senior officials within Donald Trump’s administration gave conflicting messages on Sunday about the US president’s global tariffs that have caused a meltdown in stock markets, prompted warnings of a world recession and provoked rare expressions of dissent from within his Republican party.Cabinet members fanned out across Sunday’s political talk shows armed with talking points on Trump’s 10% across-the-board tariff on almost all US imports, with higher rates targeted at about 60 countries. If the intention was to calm nerves with a clear statement of intent, then it backfired as top officials gave starkly contrasting signals.Howard Lutnick, the billionaire commerce secretary, struck an aggressive note on CBS News’s Face the Nation in which he portrayed the tariffs as here to stay. Asked whether there was a chance that tariffs would be postponed to allow countries to negotiate a deal with Washington, he replied: “There is no postponing – they are definitely going to stay in place for days and weeks, that is sort of obvious.”Lutnick added that Trump intended to “reset global trade”.“The president has made it crystal, crystal clear,” he said.However, two other cabinet members gave the opposite take, suggesting that negotiations with individual countries were very much on the cards. Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, told Meet the Press on NBC News that Trump had “created maximum leverage for himself, and more than 50 countries have approached the administration about lowering their non-tariff trade barriers, lowering their tariffs, stopping currency manipulation”.The agriculture secretary, Brooke Rollins, echoed Bessent by flagging up possible talks. “We’ve got 50 countries that are burning the phone lines into the White House,” she told CNN’s State of the Union.The scale of Trump’s tariffs have sent shockwaves around the world, catching US investors as well as top Republican politicians by surprise. In just two days last week, more than $6tn was wiped off Wall Street’s market value.Trump told US consumers in a post on his Truth Social network to “hang tough, it won’t be easy, but the end result will be historic”. Yet as he spent the weekend golfing at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, his unprecedented tax increase goaded senior Republicans to speak out, in a vanishingly rare display of criticism of their leader.Trump’s former vice-president, Mike Pence, denounced the tariffs as the “largest peacetime tax hike in US history”. Thom Tillis, the Republican senator from North Carolina, said: “Anyone who says there may be a little bit of pain before we get things right needs to talk to farmers who are one crop away from bankruptcy.”Ted Cruz, a senator from Texas, warned of a “bloodbath” for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections should the tariffs force the US into recession.Democrats are detecting opportunity in such unusual challenges to Trump from within his own party. Adam Schiff, the Democratic senator from California, floated on Meet the Press what sounded like a draft campaign strategy for the midterms.“If we head into a recession, it will be the Trump recession,” he said. Of Trump, Schiff also said: “He’s wrecking our economy.”Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota who ran as the Democrats’ vice-presidential candidate in last November’s defeat to Trump, called the tariffs “really, really terrifying” on State of the Union. He warned that if you punish dependable trading partners like Mexico and Canada, “they don’t come back overnight.”As the tariffs kick in, analysts are increasingly pointing to the chances of a recession, which is normally assessed as being two consecutive quarters of falling GDP. The head of economic research at JP Morgan, Bruce Kasman, has raised the probability of global recession to 60%, a figure that he included in a memo titled There Will Be Blood.Larry Summers, the US treasury secretary during Bill Clinton’s presidency, called the tariffs the “biggest self-inflicted wound we’ve put on our economy in history”. Speaking on ABC News’s This Week, he gave his own estimate of the total loss to US consumers at $30tn – equivalent to doubling petrol prices at the pump.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump’s cabinet members attempted to use rhetorical devices as a way of assuaging rattled investors and consumers. Rollins said the markets weren’t crashing – they were “adjusting”.Asked what he would say to Americans close to retirement who had just watched their lifetime savings drop significantly in recent days, Bessent called that a “false narrative”.“Americans who want to retire right now, they don’t look at the day-to-day fluctuations of what’s happening,” Bessent said.Bessent’s answer was coloured, perhaps, by his own net worth, which has been put at more than $521m.There were moments of the surreal in the exchanges between Trump’s top officials and the political show hosts. Asked by CNN’s Jake Tapper why 10% tariffs had been placed on Heard Island and McDonald Islands, which are populated by penguins near Antarctica but no humans, Rollins said: “I mean, come on, whatever. Listen, the people that are leading this are serious, intentional, patriotic – the smartest people I’ve ever worked with.”Tapper then pushed back on the agriculture secretary’s justification for the 20% “reciprocal” tariffs that have been imposed on EU goods sold to the US. Rollins said that Honduras bought more pork from the US than the entire European Union.Tapper pointed out that the EU had tight restrictions on hormone use in livestock production. The EU banned use of synthetic hormones in 1981, and blocked imports of animals that had been treated in that way.Rollins then accused the EU of using “fake science” to prohibit US products. “That’s just absolute bull,” she said. “We produce the safest, the most secure, the best food in the world.” More

    • 188 Shares159 Views

      in US Politics

      ‘Hands Off’ protests take off across US and Europe to oppose Trump agenda – live

      by

      Also speaking at in Washington DC was Rachel O’Leary Carmona, executive director of the Women’s March.Carmona said:
      We are exercising the People’s Veto on Musk, Trump, Zuck–all these broligarchs–who want a country ruled by bullies to benefit billionaires. And they don’t care what–or who–they have to bulldoze to make it happen.
      But here’s the thing: We are the majority. Workers. Students. Parents. Teachers. Activists. We are the backbone of this country. Not the elites. They’re scared that a movement this large can threaten their power.
      But despite all the nonsense they’ve put us through, we’re still here and our numbers are growing.
      What I know is true about Women’s Marchers, and what I suspect to be true about everyone here today is that we are not afraid of hard work. That’s who we are: regular people who stepped up when there was work to be done…We are enough, and I believe that we will win.
      The strength of a movement isn’t measured by our easy wins, but by the hard days when we showed up anyway. And that’s what we need to do. Work hard. Work together. That is true people power. That is how we win.”
      Speaking in Washington DC, the former commissioner of the Social Security Administration, Martin O’Malley, told demonstrators:
      You and I are different. We do not believe, as Elon Musk believes, that you only have value as a human being in our country if you contribute to his economic system that makes him wildly rich.
      No, you and I are different. Elon Musk thinks that the greatest waste and inefficiency are people that don’t contribute to his economy. Therefore, the elderly who can’t work, people with disabilities who can’t work, they’re the wasteful inefficiency. Elon Musk is going after you and I.
      Protesters across the US rallied against Donald Trump’s policies on SaturdayThe “Hands Off” demonstrations are part of what the event’s organisers expect to be the largest single day of protest against Trump and his billionaire ally Elon Musk since they launched a rapid-fire effort to overhaul the government and expand presidential authority.Here are some images coming from Hollywood, Florida, where demonstrators are protesting against Donald Trump’s administration:Hundreds of protesters – including Americans living abroad – have taken to the streets across major European cities in a show of defiance against Donald Trump’s administration.On Saturday, demonstrators rallied in Frankfurt, Germany, as part of the “Hands Off” protest organized by Democrats Abroad, Reuters reports.In Berlin, demonstrators stood in front of a Tesla showroom and the US embassy in protest against Trump and the Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Some held signs calling for “an end to the chaos” in the US.In Paris, demonstrators, largely American, gathered around Place de la République to protest the US president, with many waving banners that read “Resist tyrant”, “Rule of law”, “Feminists for freedom not fascism” and “Save Democracy”, Reuters reports.Crowds in London gathered in Trafalgar Square earlier on Saturday with banners that read “No to Maga hate” and “Dump Trump”.Protesters also gathered in Lisbon, Portugal, on Saturday with some holding signs that read “the Turd Reich”.In addition to large US cities, anti-Donald Trump protests are also taking place through the US’s smaller towns, including in red counties.Here are some photos coming through BlueSky from St. Augustine, a small town in Florida of 14,000 people in a red county:Jamie Raskin, a Democratic congressman from Maryland and the party’s ranking member on the House justice committee, said today’s demonstration was part of a “creative and nimble” strategy to resist Donald Trump.Talking to the Guardian, he said mass protests needed to be combined with a “smart legislative strategy” to be effective.Studies of authoritarian regimes abroad had shown that a strategy of either mass protest or legislature resistance did work on their own, he said, in response to a question about the failure of demonstrations to unseat strongman leaders in countries like Hungary, Serbia and Turkey.Here are some images coming through the newswires from across the country as thousands take to the streets in demonstrations against Donald Trump’s administration:About 600 people registered for the event, billed as a “Hands Off” rally, at the Ventura Government Center on Victoria Avenue in California.Ventura, with a population of 109,000, is a laidback beach and agricultural community with a vibrant cultural scene, about 65 miles north of Los Angeles.Leslie Sage, mother of two, drove up from nearby Thousand Oaks and said: “I’m a white woman and I want everyone to know white women don’t support Trump.” Sage’s sign read: “Russian Asset, American Idiot.”She came with her friend Stephanie Gonzalez. “As a double lung transplant recipient, I’m outraged that access to medical care and funding for research is at risk. This president is deranged.”People showed up from Ventura but also Ojai, Thousand Oaks, Westlake Village, Camarillo and Simi Valley.Harlow Rose Rega, an eight-year old from Ventura, came with her grandmother Sandy Friedman. Harlow made her own sign: “Save my future.”Friedman is worried about her social security. “I worked my whole life and so did my husband. Now I’m afraid Trump will take it away,” she said. Signs indicated protesters are worried about a range of issues – racism, national parks, health care, environment, veteran benefits, grocery costs and more. Some people said AI helped with their signage but refused to create anti-Trump slogans specifically so they worked around that.In Ventura, a chant of “Donald Trump has got to go. Hey hey ho ho!” started amid lots of cheers and honking cars.A mix of English and Spanish songs is also blasting from the mobile sound system. People are in good spirits and friendly with peacful though loud protests and no evidence of Trump support.Several hundred vociferous anti-Trump demonstrators converged on a traffic circle in Florida’s Fort Lauderdale suburb of Hollywood Saturday morning to vent their rejection of the 47th president’s policies and myriad executive orders.Chanting “hey hey, ho ho, Trump and Musk have got to go,” the predominantly white protestors jeered motorists in Tesla Cybertrucks and hoisted a variety of colorful placards that left little doubt where they stand on the topic of Donald Trump.“Prosecute and jail the Turd Reich,” read one. Some reserved special ire for the world’s richest person: “I did not elect Elon Musk.” Others emphasized the protestors’ anxieties about the future of democracy in the U.S.“Hands off democracy,” declared one placard. “Stop being Putin’s puppet,” enjoined another.“This is an assault on our democracy, on our economy, on our civil rights,” said Jennifer Heit, a 64-year-old editor and resident of Plantation who toted a poster that read, “USA: No to King or Oligarchy.”“Everything is looking so bad that I feel we have to do all we can while we can, and just having all this noise is unsettling to everyone,” Heit said.Heit attended a protest outside a Tesla dealership in Fort Lauderdale last week, and the Trump administration’s frontal assault on the rule of law and the judiciary has outraged her.“We’re supposed to be a nation of laws and due process,” she said, “and I am especially concerned about the people who are being deported without any due process.” More

    • 188 Shares179 Views

      in US Politics

      Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ could mean recession in the US and pain worldwide | Steven Greenhouse

      by

      With the huge and painful tariffs that Donald Trump announced on Thursday, “Tariff Man” is acting like a paranoid 12-year-old bully who is convinced that everyone has wronged him, and he wants revenge. But the president’s instrument of revenge – massive tariffs – is going to do serious damage to the US and global economies. Stock market investors are convinced that’s the case, with Wall Street and world stock markets losing trillions of dollars in value in recent days as a result of Trump’s obsession.The president has escalated his risky, vengeful trade war even though the US economy was in strong shape when he took office – the jobless rate was just 4.1%, inflation was below 3% and US economic growth was the strongest in the industrial world, with its stock market at record levels. So it’s unclear whether the US economy needed the shock treatment that Trump is inflicting. The price increases resulting from his tariffs – which are a tax on imports – will cost the average American family $3,800 a year, according to the Budget Lab at Yale.Trump is right that the number of manufacturing jobs is down substantially from decades ago, and he is intent on getting that number back up. But he’s taking a very high-stakes bet that he can significantly increase the number of factory jobs, even as many economists say the horses have left that barn, and it is too late or will be too painful to do much about it. In 1979, the US had a record 19.5m factory jobs. That number fell to 17m in 2001 and to 12.7m today (having risen by 600,000 during Joe Biden’s presidency).Trump’s new tariffs result from a combination of impulsiveness, impetuousness and ignorance, although some economists say that idiocy and economic illiteracy also play a big part. Paul Krugman says that Trump’s tariffs reflect the “whims of a mad king”, adding that the administration’s case for tariffs is “completely incoherent”, as it insists that the tariffs won’t raise prices but will still raise hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue.The tariffs that Trump announced on Thursday are staggering – 50% on tiny Lesotho, 49% on Cambodia, 46% on Vietnam, 34% on China, 32% on Taiwan, 24% on Japan and 20% on European Union countries. These percentages were arrived at not by careful, probing analysis that took months, but by some slapdash, Keystone Kops math.It would be generous to say it’s the one-eyed leading the blind. Rather, it’s an economically blind, impetuous president leading a mum, intimidated Republican-controlled Congress. One of the tragedies here is that many congressional Republicans see the grievous damage Trump is doing, but they’re too craven to speak out and risk Trump’s and Elon Musk’s social media wrath.Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, is predicting disaster. He says that as a result of Trump’s tariffs a recession “will hit imminently and extend until next year”. Zandi says that economic growth could fall by 2 percentage points, while the jobless rate could leap to a very painful 7.5%. On Friday, the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, also sounded the alarm, saying that Trump’s tariffs could cause even slower economic growth and higher inflation than originally expected.With Trump’s 50% tariff rate on Lesotho, 46% on Vietnam and 37% on Bangladesh, those countries – with their export-dependent apparel industries – will suffer terribly. There will be huge layoffs and no doubt an increase in hunger and immiseration – just as Trump-Musk’s tremendous foreign aid cuts at USAID have already resulted in increased hunger and deaths. And one has to wonder: by pummeling poor, apparel-producing countries such as Lesotho, Cambodia, Vietnam and Bangladesh, what is Trump trying to achieve? Does he want to bring back to the US low-paying, garment-industry jobs making jeans and sneakers?Carefully crafted tariffs can be helpful. They can be used to help build important industries or prevent the wholesale destruction of industries due to other countries’ bad behavior, like China’s improperly subsidizing its industries or dumping goods on the world market far below the cost of production. Unfortunately, Trump’s so-called “liberation day” tariffs are not a scalpel designed to help specific industries, but rather a blunderbuss mess, hitting everyone and everything, including US consumers and industries. Let’s not forget that the tariffs will raise costs at many US manufacturers and make them less competitive by, for instance, greatly increasing the price of imported steel and auto parts.The tariffs that Trump is imposing are even greater than the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which are widely seen as having worsened the Great Depression. Krugman noted that Trump’s tariffs could also do serious damage because “imports as a share of the [US] economy are three times what they were in the 1920s”.Even if Trump’s tariffs were to do what he hopes – create another million or two factory jobs – the cost would be immense. A recession. Millions of families hurt by higher prices. Trillions and trillions in lost stock market value. Far worse relations with our close allies and other countries. Opening the door to Trump’s adversary, China, significantly improving its trade and economic relations with other countries. Plus, a severe economic shock to many poorer nations.And it’s not at all certain that Trump’s tariffs will create a million or more manufacturing jobs: US economic growth and jobs will be hurt by a possible tariff-induced recession, trade retaliation from other countries, a long-term loss of markets as traditional trading partners turn away from the US, and a possible long-term decline in US industrial competitiveness as tariff protections enable inefficient companies to succeed.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump’s big hope is that corporations will build new factories and create more factory jobs in the US, but corporate executives won’t do that unless they’re convinced that there’s economic stability and predictability. They’re not blind to how capricious and unpredictable Trump is, and they know that he loves to play master dealmaker and win concessions from other countries and then immediately slash their tariffs. Trump’s team says these tariffs will be here for the long haul, but can corporate CEOs count on those claims when they’re deciding to spend $400m on a new factory?In announcing his huge new tariffs last Thursday, Trump proclaimed: “April 2, 2025 will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America’s destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again.” As usual, Trump failed to note some extremely important things.Although he won’t admit it, the US is already very wealthy. If he were truly serious about fixing the economy and making it fairer, he wouldn’t be rushing to give massive tax cuts to the ultra-rich and sparking fears of vast cuts Medicaid and food stamps that struggling American families rely on.What Trump and his team will never admit is that 2 April 2025 may for ever be remembered as the day the US economy took a grievous, Trump-induced tumble toward recession and higher prices. And not that Trump cares, but 2 April 2025 may also be remembered overseas for creating tremendous pain for struggling workers from Bangladesh to Lesotho to Honduras.

      Steven Greenhouse is a journalist and author focusing on labor and the workplace, as well as economic and legal issues More

    • 163 Shares129 Views

      in US Politics

      Trump insists he won’t back down from global trade war as markets slump

      by

      Donald Trump doubled down on his decision to launch a global trade war, declaring that he would “never” back off from sweeping tariffs on US trading partners.The US president’s announced action sent shock waves around the world this week, prompting fierce threats of retaliation and sharp sell-offs in stock markets.In an all-caps message on his Truth Social social media platform, Trump sought to convey his defiance in the wake of news that Beijing is preparing to hit back with 34% tariffs of its own.“TO THE MANY INVESTORS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES AND INVESTING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY, MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE,” he claimed. “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO GET RICH, RICHER THAN EVER BEFORE!!!”Within hours, however, the president was indicating that he might be prepared to change course. “Just had a very productive call with To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, who told me that Vietnam wants to cut their Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an agreement with the U.S.,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding that he looked forward to a meeting “in the near future”.The comments came as markets tumbled for the second straight day after Trump’s move to bring in tariffs on scores of countries. He claims the policy – a blanket 10% tariff from Saturday, with higher rates for specific markets from next week – will bring US manufacturing jobs back to the US and raise trillions of dollars for the federal government. Many economists have cautioned it will trigger economic chaos, and likely raise prices.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the move may well knock the global economy. Kristalina Georgieva, its managing director, , said: “We are still assessing the macroeconomic implications of the announced tariff measures, but they clearly represent a significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth.”Shortly before Wall Street opened on Friday, Trump claimed China had “panicked” by announcing new retaliatory tariffs on US imports. “CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED – THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!” he wrote on Truth Social.China’s industry associations have unanimously condemned the tariffs. The country’s National Textile and Apparel Council said it “supported the government’s forceful measures” and that the US had “damaged the resilience of the global textile industry’s supply chain”.The S&P 500 fell 4.4% in early trading, exacerbating a decline that began in February. The index, which tracks 500 of the leading US companies, is now down almost 14% from its peak.Shares in the US bank sector had fallen nearly 6% on Friday, reflecting fears that the trade war could trigger a recession. It could also be an indicator that investors are expecting faster interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, in order to instigate growth.Crude oil prices also plunged by 8% on Friday, heading for their lowest point since the middle of the pandemic in 2021.Trump personally selected the controversial formula for determining what tariffs would be imposed on specific countries from a menu of options, according to the Washington Post.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe chosen formula was based on two simple variables: the trade deficit with each country and the total value of its US exports.Several Trump aides had apparently been working on crafting country-specific tariffs for weeks, taking into account a broad range of tariff & non-tariff barriers. Sources told the Post that more sophisticated approaches had been developed.Trump reportedly didn’t decide on the final plan until around 1pm Wednesday – less than three hours ahead of his Rose Garden address announcing the tariffs. It is unclear who authored the formula Trump ultimately picked.The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, told reporters that the markets “will adjust” to the sweeping tariffs imposed by Trump. “The markets are reacting to a dramatic change in the global order in terms of trade … As long as they know what the rules are going to be moving forward … the markets will adjust.”Many Democrats have expressed frustration with the early impacts of the tariffs on the US economy. JB Pritzker, the governor of Illinois, wrote on X: “The biggest tax hike in American history. Donald Trump’s tariffs are throwing the economy into the tank.”California senator Alex Padilla wrote: “I’m not enraged by the stock market crashing because I’m sympathetic towards traders on Wall Street. I’m mad because this hurts the pensions and retirement savings of so many Americans. And Trump couldn’t care less.” More

    • 188 Shares199 Views

      in US Politics

      US stock markets see worst day since Covid pandemic after investors shaken by Trump tariffs

      by

      US stock markets tumbled on Thursday as investors parsed the sweeping change in global trading following Donald Trump’s announcement of a barrage of tariffs on the country’s trading partners.All three major US stock markets closed down in their worst day since June 2020, during the Covid pandemic. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 6%, while the S&P 500 and the Dow dropped 4.8% and 3.9%, respectively. Apple and Nvidia, two of the US’s largest companies by market value, had lost a combined $470bn in value by midday.Meanwhile, the US dollar hit a six-month low, going down at least 2.2% on Thursday morning compared with other major currencies and oil prices sank on fears of a global slowdown.Though the US stock market has been used to tumultuous mornings over the last few weeks, US stock futures – an indication of the market’s likely direction – had plummeted after the announcement. Hours later, Japan’s Nikkei index slumped to an eight-month low and was followed by falls in stock markets in London and across Europe.The White House drafted up a list of countries, including some of its largest trade partners and ones uninhabited by humans, that will be receiving reciprocal tariffs. Many economies will see new tariffs above 20%, including the EU, China, Japan and Taiwan.The 10% baseline tariff will go into effect on 5 April, while the reciprocal tariffs will begin on 9 April, according to the White House.“The markets are going to boom,” Trump told reporters at the White House as he left for Florida for the weekend. “I think it’s going very well.”Economists have for months warned that high tariffs are a major risk to the US economy, pushing prices up for consumers on everything from cars to wine along with destabilizing the US’s role in the global economy.But that didn’t stop Trump from taking a celebratory tone at the event he dubbed “liberation day”. Trump tried to paint the tariffs as the start of “the golden age of America”.“We are going to start being smart and we’re going to start being very wealthy again,” Trump said.On Thursday Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, defended the move. “The president is not going to back off what he announced yesterday. He is not going to back off,” he told CNN.Multiple major American business groups have spoken out against the tariffs, including the Business Roundtable, a consortium of leaders of major US companies including JP Morgan, Apple and IBM, which called on the White House to “swiftly reach agreements” and remove the tariffs.“Universal tariffs ranging from 10-50% run the risk of causing major harm to American manufacturers, workers, families and exporters,” the Business Roundtable said in a statement. “Damage to the US economy will increase the longer the tariffs are in place and may be exacerbated by retaliatory measures.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionIn a statement, the National Retail Federation, a lobbying group for the retail industry, said that the new tariffs negatively affect the business environment for retailers.“More tariffs equal more anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and consumers. While leaders in Washington may not care about higher prices, hardworking American families do,” the group said.Contrary to what Trump has said about the jobs the tariffs will create, the National Association of Manufacturers said that tariffs actually “threaten investment, jobs, supply chains and, in turn, America’s ability to outcompete other nations and lead as the preeminent manufacturing superpower”.The tariffs also appear unpopular among voters. A poll released on Wednesday ahead of Trump’s announcement found that just 28% of Americans believe tariffs help the economy, while 58% believe the impacts will be damaging.But in his speech yesterday, Trump appeared ready to be defiant against any criticism.“In the coming days, there will be complaints from the globalists and the outsources and special interests and the fake news,” he said. “This will be an entirely different country in a short period of time. It’ll be something the whole world will be talking about.” More

    • 188 Shares129 Views

      in US Politics

      Trump goes full gameshow host to push his tariff plan – and nobody’s a winner

      by

      It was Jeopardy!, or The Price Is Right, come to Washington.On an unseasonably chilly day in the White House Rose Garden, Donald Trump stood with a giant chart listing which reciprocal tariffs he would impose on China, the European Union, the United Kingdom and other hapless contestants.The winner?Trump, of course, the maestro of fake populism, watched by a crowd that included men in hard hats and fluorescent construction worker vests.The losers?Everybody else.Sensing a bad headline, Trump hadn’t wanted his “liberation day” to coincide with April Fools’ Day, so he waited until 2 April to enter his fool’s paradise. It turned out to be liberation for his decades-old grievances about the US getting ripped off as Trump stuck two fingers up at the world.“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far – both friend and foe alike,” the president said against a backdrop of nine giant US flags on the White House colonnade. “Foreign cheaters have ransacked our factories, and foreign scavengers have torn apart our once beautiful American dream.”He nodded to American steelworkers, car-workers, farmers and craftspeople in the audience. These blue-collar workers have been central to Trump’s political rise. Their industrial towns in the midwest and elsewhere were hollowed out by the trade policies of Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, which sent thousands of jobs abroad where labour was cheaper.Trump couldn’t quite bring himself to say that “liberation day” represents a final repudiation of Reagan, still a god in Republican circles. But he did drive a stake through the heart of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, or Nafta, describing it as “the worst trade deal ever made”.In 2016’s great revolt against globalization, the forgotten workers could have voted for the leftwing populism of Bernie Sanders, but he lost the Democratic party nomination to Hillary Clinton.Instead, enough went for Trump to make him president, believing his promises that he alone could fix it, end American carnage and get the factories throbbing again. As it turned out, he delivered a $1.5tn bill that slashed taxes for corporations and the wealthy.Many workers duly switched back to the Democrats, with Joe Biden in 2020. He did pour money into manufacturing – for example, with the Chips and Science Act, a bipartisan bill investing $52bn to revitalize the semiconductor industry.Yet in 2024 the pendulum swung again.Somehow a Manhattan billionaire with a criminal record again persuaded blue-collar workers that he was on their side. He claimed he could wave tariffs (taxes on foreign imports), which he has described as the most beautiful word in the English language, like a magic wand.In reality, experts say, it will result in higher prices and slower growth. The Ontario premier Doug Ford called this not liberation day but termination day because of all the jobs that will be lost. Trump playing with tariffs is like a child playing with matches.As he prepared to sign an executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs on about 60 countries, he mused that it was payback time: “Reciprocal: that means they do it to us and we do it to them. Very simple. Can’t get any simpler than that. This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history. It’s our declaration of economic independence.”It was a strange message to hear from the leader of the wealthiest, most powerful country in the world as he slapped tariffs on the likes of Ethiopia, Haiti and Lesotho.“For years, hardworking American citizens were forced to sit on the sidelines as other nations got rich and powerful, much of it at our expense. But now it’s our turn to prosper … Today we’re standing up for the American worker and we are finally putting America first,” he said.View image in fullscreenEven then, Trump claimed he was being kind by not going “full reciprocal”. He summoned his commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, to bring the chart to the podium and, as if it were a gameshow, began running through the scores on the doors:“China, first row. China, 67%. That’s tariffs charged to the USA, including currency manipulation and trade barriers. So 67%, so we’re going to be charging a discounted reciprocal tariff of 34%. I think in other words, they charge us, we charge them, we charge them less. So how can anybody be upset?“European Union, they’re very tough – very, very tough traders. You know, you think of the European Union, very friendly. They rip us off. It’s so sad to say, it’s so pathetic. Thirty-nine percent. We’re going to charge them 20%, so we’re charging them essentially half.“Vietnam: great negotiators, great people, they like me. I like them. The problem is they charge us 90%. We’re going to charge them 46% tariff.”And so on to Taiwan, Japan (“very, very tough, great people”), Switzerland, Indonesia, Malaysia and Cambodia: “United Kingdom, 10%, and we’ll go 10%, so we’ll do the same thing.”Once he’d gone through the figures, Trump rambled, as he tends to do, as if at a campaign rally: “The price of eggs dropped now 59%, and they’re going down more, and the availability is fantastic. They were saying that for Easter, please don’t use eggs. Could you use plastic eggs? I said, we don’t want to do that.”And: “It’s such an old-fashioned term but a beautiful term: groceries. It sort of says a bag with different things in it. Groceries went through the roof and I campaigned on that. I talked about the word ‘groceries’ for a lot, and energy costs now are down. Groceries are down.”In other words, everything is going great despite Signalgate, despite disappointing election results on Tuesday, despite a falling stock market and sapping consumer confidence. Now, a global trade war, too. The US is about to discover the one thing more dangerous than a politician who believes in nothing is a politician who believes in something stupid. More

    • 150 Shares179 Views

      in US Politics

      Donald Trump builds a wall made of tariffs, enclosing the whole US

      by

      Donald Trump is finally making good on his campaign promises to “build that wall” – but instead of steel fencing along the Mexican border, it will be constructed from tariffs, and will enclose the entire United States.In his pugnacious and typically rambling speech on the White House lawn on Wednesday, Trump set out plans for across-the-board import taxes, ranging from 10% to more than 40%.The president promised “liberation”, yet the immediate impact is more likely to be rising prices for US shoppers and corrosive uncertainty for firms, exacerbating an economic slowdown that may already be under way.Outside the wall, countries will be affected according to how dependent their economies are on exports to the US – and how exposed they are to the global trading system. For some, it is likely to be devastating.The UK will be relieved to be slapped with “only” the 10% minimum, after Keir Starmer’s charm offensive, and the EU may have feared worse than 20%. But for some countries Trump outlined much higher rates: 46% for Vietnam, 49% for Cambodia and 29% for Pakistan, for example.The precise effects of sweeping tariffs on this historic scale are very hard to predict. One factor is how rival economies will respond – with retaliatory tariffs tending to make a bad situation worse, though they may make short-term political sense (see Mark Carney’s poll ratings in Canada).Another question is whether the dollar may appreciate, somewhat softening the blow for US importers. That may limit the pass-through to prices, which would otherwise be expected to rise as the cost of importing products and materials increases.The main challenge in assessing the exact impact of the plans, though, is that Trump’s statement did not mark the end of the period of profound economic uncertainty that began when he arrived in the White House – quite the opposite.Instead, he has fired the starting gun on a new and inherently unpredictable scramble, in which governments will fire back with their own punitive tariffs – at the same time as negotiating hard to try to secure exemptions.As in the UK, where ministers hope to secure an “economic agreement”, which appears to involve sweeteners for US big tech and lower tariffs on food imports, these talks are likely to have economic consequences of their own.And it remains unclear, to say the least, how amenable Trump is likely to be to persuasion. On one hand, he appears to enjoy the theatre of using tariffs to exact policy concessions, which he can then portray as a winning deal.Trump-watchers have also sometimes argued that a dramatic slide in stock prices might lead the president to pull back from the harshest version of the policy.His press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, insisted on Tuesday that “Wall Street will be just fine” as a result of the tariff package.But in other moments, Trump has appeared to suggest a bit of market turbulence might be part of the plan.“There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big,” he said in a recent Fox News interview – in which he also declined to rule out a recession.There is also the small matter of the revenues the administration hopes to raise from tariffs, which it wants to use to fund tax cuts.White House trade adviser Peter Navarro has suggested the levies could raise an extraordinary $600bn (£460bn) a year: hardly consistent with offering carve-outs to every major economy that comes knocking.Caving in would also undermine another of Trump’s sometimes-contradictory aims: persuading firms to create new manufacturing jobs, inside the shelter of the tariff wall.As bewildered trade experts repeatedly said in the run-up to what Trump has called “liberation day”, and are likely to continue to say after Trump’s outing in the Rose Garden, guessing what happens next is all but impossible.All this makes for an alarming level of uncertainty – and what economists are very clear about is that consumers and businesses hate that.Consumer confidence measures in the US have already been sliding sharply. Alongside weeks of headlines about the ambiguous tariff plans, the tens of thousands of abrupt government job losses made by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) seem unlikely to have helped the mood.And in boardrooms, baffled executives may be extremely reluctant to press ahead with significant investments – bringing manufacturing back into the US as Trump hopes, for example – when it is unclear how long the tariffs will endure.Whatever the medium-term prospects of “jobs and factories” coming “roaring back” to the US, as Trump predicted, for now what some had already dubbed a “Trumpcession” appears significantly more likely to happen, than the “golden age” he has promised. More

    • 138 Shares129 Views

      in US Politics

      Trump announces sweeping new tariffs, upending decades of US trade policy

      by

      Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on some of its largest trading partners on Wednesday, upending decades of US trade policy and threatening to unleash a global trade war on what he has dubbed “liberation day”.Trump said he will impose a 10% universal tariff on all imported foreign goods in addition to “reciprocal tariffs” on a few dozen countries, charging additional duties onto countries that Trump claims have “cheated” America.The 10% universal tariff will go into effect on 5 April while the reciprocal tariffs will begin on 9 April.“This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history,” Trump said, in a long-winded speech on the White House lawn. For decades America had been “looted, pillaged and raped” by its trading partners, he said. “In many cases, the friend is worse than the foe.”Over the past few months, Trump has rattled global stock markets, alarmed corporate executives and economists, and triggered heated rows with the US’s largest trading partners by announcing and delaying plans to impose tariffs on foreign imports several times since taking office.But for the start of what appears to be a dramatic shift in American trade policy, one that could cause ricochets in the global economy, Trump tried to sell the tariffs with a celebratory tone.Nine giant US flags flanked Trump onstage in the Rose Garden, as the president spoke in front of his cabinet and a crowd of union workers wearing hard hats and fluorescent construction worker vests. Before Trump came onstage, a marine band played celebratory music to excite the crowd.At one point, Trump paused his speech to throw a Maga hat into the crowd. In the next breath, he announced the 10% universal baseline tariff.In the middle of his hour-long speech, the president displayed a chart that showed the “unfair” fees that countries placed on the US, alongside the new “USA Discounted Reciprocal Tariffs”. China charged the US 67% in “unfair” fees, and said the US would now levy a 34% fee. The EU charges 39% on imports, according to the White House, and will now be levied at 20%. Trump said the UK would be charged 10% – the baseline tariff – equal to the Trump administration’s calculations of the UK’s fees on US imports.Special exceptions were made for Canada and Mexico, though the countries were previously targets of proposed broad tariffs. The White House said that goods covered by an existing trade deal with Canada and Mexico will continue to see no tariffs.Trump said the tariff calculations also include “currency manipulation and trade barriers”, though the White House has not elaborated on how it calculated the new tariffs.It appears Trump has zeroed in on the industry-specific tariffs the countries have placed on American exports. In his speech, Trump criticized policies like the EU’s ban on imported chicken, Canadian tariffs on dairy and Japan’s levies on rice.Trump said the US would charge half of the fees he feels trading partners unfairly impose on the US because the US people are “very kind”. The countries have “placed massive tariffs on [US] products and created non-monetary tariffs to decimate our industries”, Trump said, calling them “common sense reciprocal tariffs”.“Reciprocal: that means they do it to us and we do it to them. Very simple, can’t get any more simple than that,” he said. “This indeed will be the golden age of America,” he said.Trump was ultimately following through with a promise he made during the election: on the campaign trail, Trump floated the idea of a 10% universal tariff on all imported goods.The new tariffs come on top of a lineup of levies that Trump has already implemented: an additional 20% tariff on all Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports. There is also a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump also announced in March a 25% tariff on all imported vehicles and, eventually, imported auto parts, which will start going into effect on Thursday.“These tariffs are going to give us growth like you’ve never seen before, and it’ll be something very special to watch,” Trump said.Trump has made clear the goals he wants to accomplish through his tariffs: bring manufacturing back to the US; respond to unfair trade policies from other countries; increase tax revenue; and incentivize crackdowns on migration and drug trafficking. But the implementation of his tariffs has so far have been haphazard, with multiple rollbacks and delays, and vague promises that have yet to come to fruitionBut the threats have soured US relations with its largest trading partners. Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, has called them “unjustified” and pledged to retaliate. The European Union has said it has a “strong plan” to retaliate. Other retaliatory tariffs could eventually lead to higher prices that would hurt American exporters.The US stock market closed slightly up on Wednesday, ahead of Trump’s announcement, with a slight boost from news that Elon Musk may step away from his role in the White House soon to focus on his businesses.Even with the slight upswing, two of the three major stock exchanges saw their worst quarter in over two years after Monday marked the end of the first quarter.In March, consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level in over four years. Polls have shown that tariffs are unpopular with Americans, including Republicans. Only 28% of people in a poll from Marquette Law School released Wednesday said that tariffs help the economy.The uncertainty around Trump’s tariff policies have increased the likelihood of a recession, according to recent forecasts from economists at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and other banks. More