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    'Just like propaganda': the three men enabling Trump's voter fraud lies

    One night in late February 2017, Hans von Spakovsky, a lawyer at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative thinktank in Washington DC, fired off an email.
    The White House was creating a commission to investigate voter fraud, an issue von Spakovsky had long pursued. But he was concerned the Trump administration was considering Democrats and moderate Republicans for the panel, and “astonished” no one had bothered to consult with him or J Christian Adams, a friend and fellow conservative lawyer.
    “There are only a handful of real experts on the conservative side on this issue and not a single one of them (including Christian and me) have been called other than Kris Kobach, secretary of state of Kansas. And we are told that some consider him too ‘controversial’ to be on the commission,” he wrote. “If they are picking mainstream Republican officials and/or academics to man this commission it will be an abject failure because there aren’t any that know anything about this or who have paid any attention to this issue over the years.”
    The email eventually made its way to Jeff Sessions, then US attorney general. A few months later, Kobach, von Spakovsky and Adams were appointed to Donald Trump’s commission.
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    It seemed inevitable. For years, all three men had used their positions both inside and outside of government to peddle the myth that American elections are vulnerable to fraud. Though this idea has been debunked repeatedly, and despite the ultimate failure of Trump’s commission, these men continued to promote the idea that widespread voter fraud justified stricter voting regulations.
    “We’ve seen this going on for the last few decades,” said Richard Hasen, a law professor and election expert at the University of California, Irvine. “These ideas have moved from the fringes to the center of many Republican arguments about reasons for making it harder to vote.”
    Now the myth of voter fraud is dominating the election. Trump has questioned the legitimacy of the vote, falsely suggesting it will be “rigged” against him and his campaign has floated using the idea of a fraudulent election as the basis for overriding the popular vote in key states, according to the Atlantic. Despite the pandemic, the president and his campaign have litigated to restrict mail-in voting and expand the use of poll watchers, citing the potential for tampering.
    State Republicans have followed suit. Texas’s governor, Greg Abbott, limited each county to only one place where voters could return their mail-in ballots. South Carolina Republicans successfully fought to preserve a witness requirement for absentee ballots. Alabama Republicans have pointed to the potential for fraud to justify mail-in ballot restrictions. And in Wisconsin, a conservative group is urging the state supreme court to order the swift removal of more than 130,000 people from the voter rolls, citing the need to prevent fraud.
    Von Spakovsky and Adams have been right in the mix. Von Spakovsky has quietly met and consulted with Republican election officials across the country, according to ProPublica. Adams has loudly hyped the dangers of voting by mail, earning Trump’s attention.
    The hysteria over voter fraud has reached an alarming pitch. And this dangerous moment in US democracy would not be possible without the work of these three men.
    Creating false evidence
    Kobach, von Spakovsky and Adams worked in the justice department in the George W Bush administration at a time when pursuing claims of voter fraud was a priority. Since leaving, a core part of their strategy has been to distort statistics to depict voter fraud as a widespread problem.
    As Kansas’s top election official, Kobach found a remarkably effective way to do this. He oversaw Interstate Crosscheck, a consortium of dozens of states that agreed to share voter data to find people registered in more than one state. The system matched voters by their first name, last name, date of birth and partial social security number.
    One academic study found that more than 99% of the people the system flagged as duplicates were actually distinct voters. It was also more likely to flag eligible voters than ineligible ones. In 2013, Virginia officials used Crosscheck to remove nearly 39,000 voters from the state’s rolls, but one local registrar reported that 17% of voters in his county were wrongfully flagged and some voters turned up at the polls to find they weren’t registered.
    Kansas agreed to end the Crosscheck program last year.
    “There has been an extreme element on the right who have pushed a false narrative of widespread fraud for a long time. The idea that voter lists are bloated with ineligible voters has been a key element of that false narrative,” said David Becker, the executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, and an expert in election administration.
    Under Adams, Pilf has used questionable data to make similar claims. In 2016 and 2017, the organization published a report alleging thousands of non-citizens had cast votes in Virginia. It even included the personal information of some of those accused, who turned out to be citizens and sued Pilf for voter intimidation. Pilf eventually apologized, but internal emails showed the group was at least aware of a possible mistake before publication.
    “We still have the opportunity to convert pushback into official confusion to justify our call for top-down overhaul,” Logan Churchwell, a Pilf spokesman, wrote in one email in response to concerns. “The fog of war favors the aggressor here.”
    This year, the group released a report attempting to prove mail-in voting was vulnerable to fraud. Pilf initially claimed that about 1m mail-in ballots were undeliverable in 2018, but corrected the number after ProPublica revealed it was inflated and the organization had “doubled the official government numbers”. The report also claimed that 28.3m mail-in ballots had gone “missing” between 2012 and 2018. But experts told ProPublica that those were probably ballots that the voter decided not to return.
    Trump still touted media coverage of the study in a tweet, saying: “Don’t allow RIGGED ELECTIONS!”
    Adams declined to be interviewed for this story. “We don’t make claims about voter fraud,” he wrote in an email. “We point out vulnerabilities in the system. You have us mixed up with someone else. You are also exaggerating the so-called ‘error’ that ProPublica wrote about, it was a fraction that appeared on one document. But that’s what you are paid to do, be ridiculous.”
    At the Heritage Foundation, von Spakovsky has touted a database that purports to show nearly 1,300 examples of “proven” instances of voter fraud. But the database is extremely misleading, containing cases going back decades and voters who made mistakes. (Von Spakovsky said in an email that the database is “thoroughly sourced and backed up by detailed references to government documents and media reports”.)
    “You use the word ‘widespread’ fraud as if that is the only criteria [sic] worth considering. That is absurd,” he wrote in an email. “The Heritage Foundation Election Fraud Database demonstrates that there are many ways to engage in election fraud and that it occurs often enough that we should be concerned about it and should try to address it.”
    Conservative media have helped widely disseminate these lies nonetheless. Kobach authored a 2018 op-ed in Breitbart News claiming “proof” that out of state voters had swung the 2016 election in New Hampshire. His smoking gun was state data showing that some voters used an out-of-state license to register on election day. Adams cited the data in his own op-ed.
    But at the time, New Hampshire did not require voters to have an in-state driver’s license to vote. The state’s top election official quickly rebuked Kobach. Nonetheless, state Republicans passed a law tightening residency requirements linked to voting.
    “It’s the same thing over and over and over – say it, say it, say it – and push it out there,” said Lorraine Minnite, a professor at Rutgers University-Camden who studies accusations of voter fraud. “It functions just like propaganda.”
    (Kobach did not respond to several written questions for this story.)
    Creating laws
    Armed with their misleading data, these men have influenced and shaped laws making it harder to vote.
    While at the justice department, von Spakovsky “was just looking for stuff so that he could push voter ID”, said Joe Rich, a former head of the department’s voting section who clashed with von Spakovsky.
    In 2005, Georgia submitted a new voter ID law for approval to the department. Around the same time, von Spakovsky anonymously published a law review article advocating for voter ID laws, which career employees believe should have led von Spakovsky to recuse himself from the case.
    Instead, von Spakovsky privately emailed with an attorney on the justice department team reviewing the law, fed him “arguments and analysis” and advised him to password protect documents from other attorneys. The career attorneys recommended against approving the measure, noting it would impede the voting access for African Americans, but were overruled by supervisors at the justice department with help from von Spakovsky’s feedback, according to the Nation.
    A federal judge would later block the law, which reduced the number of acceptable forms of voter ID from 17 to six, noting that the acceptable forms of ID had fees associated with them, which amounted to a poll tax. A revised version of the law went into effect a few years later.
    “He’s been the moving force behind photo IDs,” John Lewis, the civil rights icon who died earlier this year, told the New Yorker in 2012 about von Spakovsky. “It’s like he goes to bed dreaming about this, and gets up in the morning wondering, ‘What can I do today to make it more difficult for people to vote?’
    “When you pull back the covers, peel back the onion, he’s the one who’s gotten the Republican legislatures, and the Republican party, to go along with this – even though there is no voter fraud to speak of. He’s trying to create a cure where there is no sickness.”
    Von Spakovsky defended his work at the justice department.
    “Fighting against election fraud ensures that every American who votes has confidence that his or her vote was counted,” he said. “I joined the civil rights division of the Department of Justice to enforce the Voting Rights Act and other federal voting laws in order to help safeguard our elections. Our job was to uphold the civil and constitutional rights of all Americans – and that’s what I did.”
    In 2010, meanwhile, Kobach was elected Kansas secretary of state, and leveraged his new position to advocate for voting restrictions too. The Kansas legislature passed a 2011 law that required people to prove their citizenship when they register to vote – one of the most severe restrictions in the country.
    Around the same time, bills cropped up around the country seeking to require voters to show a form of specific photo identification at the polls. Many of the laws appeared to be copies of each other – this was not a coincidence. They were written by the American Legislative Exchange Council (Alec), a consortium of conservative politicians and business groups founded in 1973 that offers a library of “copycat” model bills.
    In their 2011 or 2012 legislative sessions, voter ID bills passed in Alabama, Kansas, Mississippi, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin.
    Republicans have pointed to these measures as deterrents to voter fraud, but in some cases, openly admitted they hoped the new laws would boost their political fortunes. “I don’t want everybody to vote,” Paul Weyrich, conservative activist and Alec founder, said in 1980. “As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down.”
    In April of 2012, Alec eliminated its Task Force on Public Safety and Elections, which created policies on voter ID and elections, and removed the voter ID bill from its library. But recently, the group created a new group focused on election issues, and both von Spakovsky and Adams have spoken at Alec gatherings in recent years.
    Deep pockets
    Behind Adams, von Spakovsky, Kobach is a circle of wealthy conservative donors, sharing close ties and a revolving door of staff and consultants.
    The Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, a conservative group in Wisconsin, and DonorsTrust, known as a “dark money ATM” of the Koch network, have helped funnel millions to the organizations shaping restrictive voting laws and helping the myth of voter fraud proliferate, according to OpenSecrets data. More

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    Could rejected mail-in ballots cost Joe Biden the election? | Nathan Robinson

    Donald Trump is the one who has complained most loudly about mail-in ballot problems. But problems with mailed ballots could in fact hurt BidenConservatives have spent the election cycle spreading fear and misinformation about mail-in ballots. Donald Trump has called mail-in voting a “scam” and suggested that millions of counterfeit foreign ballots will be submitted. PragerU has put out a video calling mail-in balloting a way to “steal an election”. Faced with the absurd conspiracies and criticisms, Democrats have rightly defended mail-in ballots as a crucial way to preserve democracy, especially during a pandemic.But the fact that expanded mail-in balloting is legitimate and necessary does not mean that Democrats have nothing to fear from it. In fact, as Thomas Edsall of the New York Times documented, because mailed ballots have a higher rate of rejection and are more easily subject to loss and error, Democrats may lose votes they critically need in close states – especially because Democrats are much more likely to vote by mail than Republicans. (According to one poll, 47% of Biden voters planned to vote by mail, compared with just 11% of Trump supporters.) Continue reading… More

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    Build your own US election result: plot a win for Biden or Trump

    The electoral map has shifted in 2020, amid new challenges from misinformation to mail-in ballots. Previously reliable states on both sides are now looking more competitive.
    In the interactive graphic below, you decide which way these closer states will vote, and try to pave Joe Biden or Donald Trump’s path to victory.
    Some states remain very likely to go to Biden or Trump because they were won by large margins in 2016, or they have voted the same way in several recent elections. Such states – ranked either a “solid” or “likely” win for either party, according to the Cook Political Report – have already been coloured in for Biden and Trump in the graphic below.
    A majority of 270 electoral votes out of a total of 538 is needed to win, and the remaining states are up to you. Can you take Biden to victory? Or will Trump stay in the White House?

    Choose which way the key swing states will vote and trace Biden or Trump’s potential path to victory.

    JOE BIDEN
    BIDEN

    electoral college votes

    DONALD TRUMP
    TRUMP

    electoral college votes

    Under your scenario,
    would win the election!

    Under your scenario,
    Nobody would win the election. It’s a tie! More

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    Why Biden calls Trump a ‘climate arsonist’ – video explainer

    Humanity is said to have just 10 years left to start seriously tackling the climate crisis before passing the ‘point of no return’ with multiple-degree temperature increases, rising sea levels and increasingly disastrous wildfires, hurricanes, floods and droughts predicted.Scientists say the US is far off the path of what is necessary for the nation and the world to avoid catastrophic global heating, particularly as in the past four years Donald Trump has shredded environmental protections for American lands, animals and people.As part of our climate countdown series, the Guardian’s Emily Holden looks at the issue and examines why the Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, calls his rival a ‘climate arsonist’ Revealed: the full extent of Trump’s ‘meat cleaver’ assault on US wildernessSign up for Fight to Vote – our weekly US election newsletterContinue reading… More

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    Democrats hold Senate floor overnight to protest Amy Coney Barrett confirmation – live

    Key events

    Show

    5.52am EDT05:52
    Kremlin criticises Joe Biden over his Russia comments, saying they ‘encourage hatred of Russia’

    3.27am EDT03:27
    McConnell: ‘they won’t be able to do much about this for a long time’

    1.46am EDT01:46
    Democrats hold senate floor overnight in protest of Barrett

    Live feed

    Show

    5.52am EDT05:52

    Kremlin criticises Joe Biden over his Russia comments, saying they ‘encourage hatred of Russia’

    A quick bit of foreign policy news from Reuters here, firstly over nuclear weapons. The New Start treaty between Russia and the US expires shortly, it’s the last remaining nuclear agreement between the two nations, and there’s as yet no concrete signs of it being extended.
    Russia has today suggested that it would refrain from deploying thousands of missiles if Nato would agree to similar measures, and is proposing “mutual verification measures”.
    The Kremlin has also commented again on the US election, saying that a statement from Joe Biden that Russia is the main threat to the US is “not true”. A Kremlin spokesperson said such statements encourage hatred of Russia.

    5.47am EDT05:47

    We’ve got a live feed of Senate proceedings up above in the blog – you may need to refresh the page to get the play button to appear. Here’s a clip of Sen. Chris Murphy from earlier.

    Senate Democrats
    (@SenateDems)
    Senate Republicans are rushing through Judge Barrett’s nomination so they can finally do what they’ve been trying to do for years: repeal the ACA, end insurance for millions, and strip protections for pre-existing conditions.Sen. Murphy explains. pic.twitter.com/HBiWQUn70d

    October 26, 2020

    Sen. Tim Kaine followed him, and he finished his speech by saying that Republican leaders would not wear masks to cover their noses and mouths and protect themselves and others from the coronavirus, but that the “soulless process” of confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the supreme court showed they were willing to “cover their eyes and their ears”.

    5.43am EDT05:43

    Oliver Milman writes for us that the choice between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is pretty stark in terms of consequences for the global environment.

    The international effort to constrain dangerous global heating will hinge, in large part, on which of the dichotomous approaches of Donald Trump or Joe Biden prevails.
    On 4 November, the day after the election, the US will exit the Paris climate agreement, a global pact that has wobbled but not collapsed from nearly four years of disparagement and disengagement under Trump.
    Biden has vowed to immediately rejoin the Paris deal. The potential of a second Trump term, however, is foreboding for those whose anxiety has only escalated during the hottest summer ever recorded in the northern hemisphere, with huge wildfires scorching California and swaths of central South America, and extraordinary temperatures baking the Arctic.
    “It’s a decision of great consequence, to both the US and the world,” said Laurence Tubiana, a French diplomat and key architect of the Paris accords. “The rest of the world is moving to a low-carbon future, but we need to collectively start moving even faster, and the US still has a significant global role to play in marshaling this effort.”
    Few countries are on track to fulfill commitments made in Paris five years ago to slash their planet-heating emissions and keep the global temperature rise to “well below” 2C of warming beyond the pre-industrial era. The world has already warmed by about 1C since this time, helping set in motion a cascade of heatwaves, fierce storms and flooding around the planet.

    Read more here: Climate at a crossroads as Trump and Biden point in different directions

    5.31am EDT05:31

    The summer has been characterised by a series of extreme weather events on both coasts of the US, and that looks set to continue.
    Hundreds of thousands of Californians lost power as utilities sought to prevent the chance of their equipment sparking wildfires and the fire-weary state braced for a new bout of dry, windy weather.
    More than 1 million people were expected be in the dark Monday during what officials have said could be the strongest wind event in California this year, reports the Associate Press. More

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    'The system is broken': Americans cast their vote for better healthcare

    Ramae Hamrin was a high school math teacher in rural northern Minnesota, in a small town with a Paul Bunyan statue and snow on the ground by October.
    Hamrin, 50, instructed low-income students in calculus. It was not an easy job, but it provided health insurance for her and her three children. When it came to voting, like many Americans, she was put off by the two-party system. She voted third-party and often libertarian.
    Then, Hamrin slipped, fell and broke her hip. She went to hospital, doctors discovered a 9-centimetre (3.5-inch) lesion on her femur, and within weeks was diagnosed with cancer: multiple myeloma. Within two years, she was unable to work, permanently disabled by the ravages of cancer treatment.
    “Before I got diagnosed, I would have never thought about healthcare or drug prices,” as a voting issue, said Hamrin. “Now, really that’s my only issue.”
    This year, she said, she is voting one way: “strictly Democratic”.
    With the US election just over a week away, Hamrin is one of millions of Americans who’s been heading to the polls this fall with healthcare and drug prices as their top voting issue.
    The United States’ massive, largely private and very expensive health industry has ranked as a top voter concern for years, and helped drive Democrats to victory in the midterm elections of 2018, when the party took control of the House of Representatives.
    But over the last six months of the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed more than 220,000 Americans, Covid-19 eclipsed healthcare as the top issue of the election, though health voters like Hamrin argue the two are inseparable. Her daughter, an accomplished cross-country runner in college, was diagnosed with Covid-19 and now needs an inhaler.
    “I do trust the Democrats more than I trust the Republicans to get anything done on this issue,” said Hamrin. Although, she added: “It’s hard to know who to trust these days.”
    Although healthcare reform elicits concern across parties, it’s one in which Democrats hold a huge advantage. Biden has a 20-point lead over Trump on issues ranging from how to lower Americans’ health costs and to how to protect people from loathed insurance industry practices.
    “Covid has made us all healthcare voters,” said David Mitchell, founder of Patients for Affordable Drugs, one of a handful of advocacy groups which does not take money from pharmaceutical companies. More

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    Republicans closely resemble autocratic parties in Hungary and Turkey – study

    The Republican party has become dramatically more illiberal in the past two decades and now more closely resembles ruling parties in autocratic societies than its former centre-right equivalents in Europe, according to a new international study.
    In a significant shift since 2000, the GOP has taken to demonising and encouraging violence against its opponents, adopting attitudes and tactics comparable to ruling nationalist parties in Hungary, India, Poland and Turkey.
    The shift has both led to and been driven by the rise of Donald Trump.
    By contrast the Democratic party has changed little in its attachment to democratic norms, and in that regard has remained similar to centre-right and centre-left parties in western Europe. Their principal difference is the approach to the economy.
    The new study, the largest ever of its kind, was carried out by the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, using newly developed methods to measure and quantify the health of the world’s democracies at a time when authoritarianism is on the rise.
    Anna Lührmann, V-Dem’s deputy director, said the Republican transformation had been “certainly the most dramatic shift in an established democracy”.
    Graphic
    V-Dem’s “illiberalism index” gauges the extent of commitment to democratic norms a party exhibits before an election. The institute calls it “the first comparative measure of the ‘litmus test’ for the loyalty to democracy”.
    The study, published on Monday, shows the party has followed a similar trajectory to Fidesz, which under Viktor Orbán has evolved from a liberal youth movement into an authoritarian party that has made Hungary the first non-democracy in the European Union.
    India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been transformed in similar ways under Narendra Modi, as has the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Law and Justice party in Poland. Trump and his administration have sought to cultivate close ties to the leadership of those countries.
    The Republican party has remained relatively committed to pluralism, but it has gone a long way towards abandoning other democratic norms, becoming much more prone to disrespecting opponents and encouraging violence.
    “We’ve seen similar shifts in parties in other countries where the quality of democracy has declined in recent years, where democracy has been eroding,” Lührmann said. “It fits very well into the pattern of parties that erode democracy once they’re in power.”
    “The demonisation of opponents – that’s clearly a factor that has shifted a lot when it comes to the Republican party, as well as the encouragement of political violence,” she said, adding that the change has been driven in large part from the top.
    “We have several quotes from Trump, that show how he has encouraged supporters to use violence against either journalists or political opponents.”
    In western Europe, centre-right parties like Germany’s Christian Democratic Union and Spain’s People’s Party have stuck to their commitment to democratic norms. By the same measure, Britain’s Conservative party has moved some way along the liberal-illiberal spectrum but not to the Republicans’ extremes.
    “The data shows that the Republican party in 2018 was far more illiberal than almost all other governing parties in democracies,” the V-Dem study found. “Only very few governing parties in democracies in this millennium (15%) were considered more illiberal than the Republican party in the US.”
    The institute has found the decline in democratic traits has accelerated around the world and that for the first time this century, autocracies are in the majority – holding power in 92 countries, home to 54% of the global population.
    According to V-Dem’s benchmark, almost 35% of the world’s population, 2.6 billion people, live in nations that are becoming more autocratic. More

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    'This will make lib heads explode': Donald Trump Jr posts 2024 picture

    Donald Trump Jr posed in front of a “Don Jr 2024” sign in Nevada on Saturday, posted the picture online and waited for “the lib heads to explode”.
    “Hahahahaha,” wrote the president’s oldest son, on Instagram. “Oh boy. This was a sign up at the Fallon Nevada Livestock Auction. This will make the lib heads explode.” (“Lib” being short for liberal.)
    “To whomever made that thanks for the compliment … but let’s get through 2020 with a big win first!!!!!”
    Though Nevada went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden leads Donald Trump Sr there this year, it is considered a swing state. Democratic voters are concentrated in Las Vegas and its suburbs while Republicans can be found in more rural areas.
    Trump Jr, 42, is best known as an internet provocateur who shares both his father’s brashness and his inclination for sharing disinformation.
    Since his father won the White House he has not been involved in policy like his sister, Ivanka, and her husband, Jared Kushner, or as active in running the Trump Organization as his brother, Eric. He also has two half-siblings, Tiffany and Barron.
    But Don Jr does seem to be the Trump offspring most inclined to politics and he has turned into a valuable campaign surrogate with a knack for communicating with the president’s base.
    “Don Jr represents the emotional center of the MAGA universe,” Jason Miller, a senior advisor on Trump’s campaign, told the New York Times, using an acronym for “Make America Great Again”, a Trump slogan.
    Trump Jr has only joked about running for office but he – and his sister – have registered strongly in polls regarding notional Republican candidates for 2024, whether to succeed his father or to attempt to deny Joe Biden a second term.
    The president’s oldest son has also published two books with political themes, seeing the first top bestseller lists, if with help from the party, and suffering embarrassment over a mistake on the cover of the second.
    A Vice reporter recently suggested that Pennsylvania Republicans were floating the idea of Trump Jr replacing Pat Toomey, a Republican senator who has announced he will retire. Trump Jr himself has not spoken about the Pennsylvania seat.
    Speaking to the Guardian this week, Rick Wilson, a former Republican consultant and member of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, called Trump Jr “a post-Republican Republican … there only to engage in that performative dickery that is lib-owning in the Trump world. It is a political performance art to show your contempt for norms, institutions and education.”
    Wilson went on to explain why, should Trump Jr actually consider a run for office, that might be an asset.
    “It has become the ideological underpinning of the GOP. There’s no party of ideas any longer. There’s no there there except for sort of the screeching fury of Trumpism.” More